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Opinium finds double-digit LAB leads whoever becomes PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited July 2022

    No surprise that extremely rich golfers in their greed have signed up to LIV for even more.
    I read today that West Ham want Jesse Lingard, but are reluctant to pay his full demand of £180,000 a week. For a pretty average footballer. The world's mad.
    Golf has an issue where a small number of players get huge sponsors e.g. Rory Nike deal was $100m+....its very easy then to say well I am holding true to my principles and sticking with the PGA Tour when you bagged a $100m in your early 20s. Outside of a handful the sponsorship aren't mega, so you earn what you win.

    Then the players expenses are significant, all the travel, the caddie, coach etc etc etc. I am not saying the top 25 players are poor, but say Cam Smith, he has been winning about $2m a year most years of his career, take out all the expenses he might only taking home $1m. Not surprising your head gets turned by somebody offering you 100x upfront.

    If you are top 100 player in MLB, NFL, NHL, you are making a hell of a lot more than $1m a year. What the average salary in EPL for a mid 20 year old, $3m?

    Big issue with EPL now isn't that your elite players earn $10m+, it is that even youth players are signing contracts which means they are made for life despite not having played a single EPL game. If you get the right agent and look promising, between 18-21 you can earn enough money to be set for life, and then never make it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    Some advance fares - especially with competing operators - are extremely cheap. The rest are expensive compared to most similar trips elsewhere. And the same with the tube and the buses. We could choose to cap fares but we don't. When its almost always cheaper to fly internally than get the train we are clearly doing something wrong.
    Did you read that article?

    I agree that our peaks are too pricey, but perhaps our peaks are too peaky and we have to use price to suppress demand?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Leon said:

    You hate the guy so much it blinds you
    As mayor of London he was fine but it’s been all downhill ever since . The fact you can’t accept that he was destroying the office of PM and had to go suggests you seem blind to that .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582
    Leon said:

    Picture the scene in say, 2024, when Prime Minister Liz Yawn Truss is doing an election walkabout in Newent, and the sparse crowds are politely chatting, and looking at their phones, and drifting off.... and then a mop of blonde hair appears

    OMFG it's BORIS!!

    BORIS!!

    Suddenly the crowds rush to get a glimpse, and to shake hands with the great man, and laugh at his feeble but well delivered jokes, and they walk away with a smile, and Liz Wossface remains ignored in the corner. Along with Rishi Sunak

    Repeat for PM Starmer at state events, perhaps

    At first glance with your double exclamation marks I read "BOORISH", and twice. It works for me!

    P.S. The only time I have seen crowds in Newent is at Newent Friday Market, or happy hour at Three Choirs Wines.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914

    I have a feeling he is more the Bonnie Prince after Culloden than the all conquering hero storming through Lancashire to Derby as the King throws his robes into a case and prepares to flee.
    His folliwers still believe and lick their wounds and gird themselves for the blowback but Boris will flee to Skye, dressed as Nadine Dorries and live out a drunken and debauched exile in the media.
    Yes, I tend to agree, but the King over the Water remained a potent force and myth in Scottish/British politics for a LONG time
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582
    nico679 said:

    As mayor of London he was fine but it’s been all downhill ever since . The fact you can’t accept that he was destroying the office of PM and had to go suggests you seem blind to that .
    As Mayor of London, those in the know suggest he was just hanging onto Livingstone's coat tails.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    nico679 said:

    As mayor of London he was fine but it’s been all downhill ever since . The fact you can’t accept that he was destroying the office of PM and had to go suggests you seem blind to that .
    Or you could read the comment directly above yours, written by me, in this thread, when I said

    "I said he had to go, when he had to go, because he had to go"

    This is it in a nutshell. Boris Derangement is so bad in you guys, a red mist descends when his name is mentioned and you can't even correctly read comments about him
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Leon said:

    Yes, I tend to agree, but the King over the Water remained a potent force and myth in Scottish/British politics for a LONG time
    Yes, see my edit, a long but disappointing shadow!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    eek said:

    You typical middle rank professional golfer does better than you middle rank Tennis player though https://www.sportseconomics.org/sports-economics/why-do-golfers-earn-more-than-tennis-players
    The middle ranks of both sports would be far better off economically, working full time as coaches at clubs close to their home.

    The 100th ranked guy making $200k prize money per year, before his expenses of coaching and travel, doesn’t leave him with a lot left at the end of the year - for a career that might only last a decade.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited July 2022

    An anecdote. I can't remember which station it was, but a while back the locals near one station asked a BR manager for permission to 'do up' their local small station: plant flowers, tidy things up, litter pick, give things a lick of paint. Permission was given, and necessary training give to a few people. From memory, it also included locals taking shifts to greet trains arriving and help out.

    Passenger numbers rocketed up. Then another manager came in, and he stopped the nonsense. Passenger numbers slowly fell.

    (I wish I could remember which station it was...) Yes, there are problems in having untrained people mucking about near railway lines. But there's also a great deal of goodwill for 'local# stations. The Settle and Carlisle showed how it should be done in the face of adversity in the 1980s; I think some other lines have similar groups.
    Precisely the model I was thinking about.
    Or perhaps, stations could be part owned by the local authority, who might be incentivised to make such places a pleasant gateway to their surrounding neighbourhood.

    I think it’s depressing to arrive at - say Slough Station (which I used to do a lot to visit clients on the Bath Road) and be confronted with a dust-blown “Pumpkin Cafe”.

    SSP, who also own “Upper Crust” and “Caffe Ritazza”, are menaces.

    I accept this may be a niche view.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    Some advance fares - especially with competing operators - are extremely cheap. The rest are expensive compared to most similar trips elsewhere. And the same with the tube and the buses. We could choose to cap fares but we don't. When its almost always cheaper to fly internally than get the train we are clearly doing something wrong.
    Yep - I've heard that one reason for the binning of the new ECML timetable was multiple councils insisting on the open access providers stopping at stations they were currently bypassing.

    Lumo charge £50 from Newcastle, LNER charge £80
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,526

    You can go away with the "private sector killed a load of people" sh*t. Yes, Railtrack had problems. But, in case you had not noticed, so did BR in the decades before. The list is long and inglorious. Mentioning things like Hatfield and not mentioning the likes of Crowden, Clapham, Stafford, Cannon Street, Purley Belgrove, Lockington (all fatal crashes in the ten years before privatisation) is odd.

    Unless nationalised deaths are fine, privatised ones are evil?
    Not at all! But when there are a list of accidents directly caused by Railtrack not only not maintaining the tracks but not knowing what condition they were in, its hard to argue that the private operator and the structure that was created specifically to be like that wasn't directly responsible.

    Its not private ownership as a concept that killed them, its the specific private ownership structure and a total lack of regulation that did it. Would BR have had those accidents? Its possible, possibly different ones as I doubt they would have screwed up that badly.

    ISTR you volunteer on a preserved line? I assume then that you know that for every one of the crashes you mention and all the ones before it, the industry looked at what happened and learned lessons and wrote new processes to avoid a repeat. And most of the ones you listed - Purley, Cowden, Stafford, Bellgrove, Cannon Street - were driver errors as opposed to infrastructure failures. As opposed to the Railtrack era crashes where it was crap maintenance done at minimum cost for maximum profits.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    But Cap and Collar meant that they didn't really make a loss - they took the profits and then handed the franchise back when the profits disappeared.

    Anyway, do we both agree that StateCo operators demonstrated that public ownership in the European model works?
    That was limited. Some took quite severe haircuts from the franchises.

    I don't necessarily agree with that. Since you're evidently focused on safety (given your previous incorrect post), you might want to look at the safety records of French or German railways over the last two decades...
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    It’s pretty clear something strange happened in yesterday’s vote so the true level of support for the candidates is hard to gage .

    The 32 TT votes up for grabs would never break to give Truss 15 .

    How many Sunak supporters gave votes to Truss ?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited July 2022
    eek said:

    You typical middle rank professional golfer does better than you middle rank Tennis player though https://www.sportseconomics.org/sports-economics/why-do-golfers-earn-more-than-tennis-players
    Tennis is terrible sport really in terms of money...if you aren't top 100 you aren't even making a living. And of course because it is a man-o-man sport, if you are poorly ranked you have to keep facing the best players in early rounds, so it favours winner takes all.

    Liam Brody said he has only made money during a single year of his career. He needs to win a round of a major to pay for his coaching team and costs him $20k a year in restringing rackets alone. Despite one good year where he bought a property, he can't afford to pay the mortgage without a lodger.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,526

    Did you read that article?

    I agree that our peaks are too pricey, but perhaps our peaks are too peaky and we have to use price to suppress demand?
    Yes I read it. And I am well aware of the absurdities in fare pricing including shoulder periods. Such lunacy could be removed. But is so often written into the franchise agreement.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,304
    Leon said:

    Or you could read the comment directly above yours, written by me, in this thread, when I said

    "I said he had to go, when he had to go, because he had to go"

    This is it in a nutshell. Boris Derangement is so bad in you guys, a red mist descends when his name is mentioned and you can't even correctly read comments about him
    Well, I'll say this. If La Truss becomes PM, I'll miss him five minutes after the announcement. OK, ten minutes.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    nico679 said:

    It’s pretty clear something strange happened in yesterday’s vote so the true level of support for the candidates is hard to gage .

    The 32 TT votes up for grabs would never break to give Truss 15 .

    How many Sunak supporters gave votes to Truss ?

    Either Sunak loaned c.15, or Kemi lost c.15 to Truss which was compensated for by intake from Tom and others.

    Or a bit of both.

    I can’t see Tom > Truss switchers numbering more than 2 or 3.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2022
    nico679 said:

    It’s pretty clear something strange happened in yesterday’s vote so the true level of support for the candidates is hard to gage .

    The 32 TT votes up for grabs would never break to give Truss 15 .

    How many Sunak supporters gave votes to Truss ?

    I wonder if it is ultra tight today if the 22 might not amend and put all 3 to the membership. Is that possible?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    I winder if it is ultra tight today if the 22 might not amend and put all 3 to the membership. Is that possible?
    If Penny is one behind Liz, or even tied, I’m looking forward to seeing what happens.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,912
    If the new leader is an obvious dud, Boris can always return via a VoC and coronation before the next GE.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    @Leon Before I waste more time putting combinations of parrot and Estonia and Tory into Twitter and Reddit, is there a more precise combination I might try to find out what on earth you’re talking about?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    Not at all! But when there are a list of accidents directly caused by Railtrack not only not maintaining the tracks but not knowing what condition they were in, its hard to argue that the private operator and the structure that was created specifically to be like that wasn't directly responsible.

    Its not private ownership as a concept that killed them, its the specific private ownership structure and a total lack of regulation that did it. Would BR have had those accidents? Its possible, possibly different ones as I doubt they would have screwed up that badly.

    ISTR you volunteer on a preserved line? I assume then that you know that for every one of the crashes you mention and all the ones before it, the industry looked at what happened and learned lessons and wrote new processes to avoid a repeat. And most of the ones you listed - Purley, Cowden, Stafford, Bellgrove, Cannon Street - were driver errors as opposed to infrastructure failures. As opposed to the Railtrack era crashes where it was crap maintenance done at minimum cost for maximum profits.
    I might suggest you are wrong on that. As an example off the top of my head, Clapham Junction was caused by crap maintenance done at minimum cost. (Not that I blame the poor sod who did the work...)

    And you might notice that drivers were part of the privatised parts of the system: and as you say, that's been *much* better since privatisation.AS has lack of fatal crashes called by train maintenance failures. You can't have it both ways.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582

    Don't trust either of them. The Tories brought in a private franchising structure so stupid that nobody else in the world copied it, and sold off the infrastructure in such a lax way that the private sector killed a load of people then needed rescuing. And then Labour did little to change the stupid for less stupid.

    BTW, the expertise was lost before Labour had the chance to fuck things up. The multi-year hiatus in ordering new trains was enough to bankrupt and close the train manufacturing industry (bar 1 factory), the Rail Technical Centre was sold off and lost, the engineers flitted away.

    We then ended up not able to do the basics like string up wires. Or re-signal the "victorian infrastructure" that Shapps Green seems obsessed with. The lunacy of the proposed Manchester South scheme as one example.

    What we need is professionals running the shop. Neither party have offered that for decades, so trying to blame one lot for not fixing the other lot's mess is partisan silliness - BOTH were bad.
    Since 1979 Labour have had thirteen years to get the railways right. In that time the Conservatives have had thirty.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216
    Leon said:

    It will absolutely happen with Boris. He has been the most high profile and charismatic British politician since Blair, and in some ways is more important than Blair (Brexit, Covid, Ukraine) despite serving a much briefer term

    And one advantage of leaving the scene so early is that he won't be tarnished by the sour humdrum years that beckon. Those whom the Gods love best die young, etc

    His legend will grow. The lost king
    So what ?

    The truth is that you've always been something of a fan. And those who might think of him like that, sometime down the road, are likely to be the same.
    That might be a problem for the Conservative party, and for whichever unfortunate they decide to inflict on us as PM this time around, but I don't think anyone else give two hoots. Or is likely to.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    I wonder if it is ultra tight today if the 22 might not amend and put all 3 to the membership. Is that possible?
    No I can’t see them changing the rules . I think it would cause a major furore in the Tory party .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,281
    edited July 2022
    nico679 said:

    It’s pretty clear something strange happened in yesterday’s vote so the true level of support for the candidates is hard to gage .

    The 32 TT votes up for grabs would never break to give Truss 15 .

    How many Sunak supporters gave votes to Truss ?

    I suspect 15 TT voters went to Badenoch to knock out Truss, they may now go to Mordaunt having failed to do that, again to try and knock out Truss. Maybe some Sunak voters went to Truss or some Badenoch voters switched to Truss yesterday. If another 10 to 15 Badenoch MPs went to Mourdant, even if all the other Badenoch MPs went to Truss then Mordaunt could be through.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831

    Yes. I'm working on the project.
    So it’s going to be another, late and over budget? ;)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582
    Andy_JS said:

    If the new leader is an obvious dud, Boris can always return via a VoC and coronation before the next GE.

    Are you drinking with Leon this afternoon?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,484
    Just looking at the BBC live news feeds and thinking "I'd hate to see what 'Mission fully accomplished' looks like".


  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    Yes I read it. And I am well aware of the absurdities in fare pricing including shoulder periods. Such lunacy could be removed. But is so often written into the franchise agreement.
    My point - perhaps not clearly made - is that this is the “British model”.

    The UK chooses to deter peak usage via price, perhaps because of the over-centrality of London in the network. In return, off peak is cheaper.

    European systems don’t.

    But I don’t necessarily think this makes the UK system worse.

    This is just a pricing point. I accept the whole thing is up for debate again post-Covid, which is interesting as it seemed pretty much “settled” until just a few years ago.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299

    Initially it isn't. But if they make it work and become THE golf league, $100 million here or there is nothing. They are throwing something like $4bn at the project, but have a look how much PGA Tour have sold their rights for, last round of deals was about $3bn.

    The big question I think is the majors. If they ban all the LIV golfers (and make it stick), I think that is problematic. But if they carry on with the well if you qualify you can play, I think there will be more elite golfers who say $100m to sign, thank you very much, and I will still play the big boy events.
    I don't think the product itself will fly. Quicker play is the only thing that might be an improvement on the current game. Apart from that it fails on every level. The team aspect in particular doesn't work for golf. Ok, the Ryder and Presidents Cups, where there's an "Us v the USA" dynamic, but otherwise no. I mean, who the fuck is going to care if Dustin Johnson's "Chew Boy Riders" or Lee Westwood's "Big Girth Inc" win some 54 hole event at the likes of Trump National? Or indeed which individual wins when all of them are on mega money deals anyway? No, it won't attract the fans, hence won't attract the tv money, hence won't achieve lift off. It'll last as long as the Saudis are prepared to lose money doing it and then peter out.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    Another issue of single "contractor" sports compared to team sports, you are literally responsible for every single expense. Compare that to EPL footballers, they don't pay for anything. All their meals are provided by the club, they spend a large part of the time in hotels (normal now for even the home team to stay in hotels prior to games), they are given literally everything even down to underpants. During COVID the clubs even went down Tescos for them if they wanted a chocolate bar and come and deliver it.

    Peter Crouch joked that away games with Liverpool he turned up with a washbag and that was it. When he stopped it took him quite a long to adjust to the fact that isn't how the real world works.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    Since 1979 Labour have had thirteen years to get the railways right. In that time the Conservatives have had thirty.
    And in those 30 years what projects have the Tory parties not binned. The Electrification of the Leeds Manchester line should be finished now but thanks to 12 years of Government arsing about it's so far cost £1bn and wasted £190m. https://t.co/PDOnY8QiUk
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    So far Truss has been running away from the tax rises and trying to avoid any responsibility.

    This will change in the final 2 . She might be favourite but I don’t think it’s impossible for Sunak to overtake her .
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    moonshine said:

    @Leon Before I waste more time putting combinations of parrot and Estonia and Tory into Twitter and Reddit, is there a more precise combination I might try to find out what on earth you’re talking about?

    It was a prank


    I was trying to find a combination of words which would be sufficiently plausible to get people googling a possible rumour, and yet, when you look at them, obviously absurd

    The key was the mad word order

    " the Cabinet Minister with the Estonian start up and the whole parrot gay thing jesus"

    The "whole parrot gay thing jesus"??

    Apologies. It amused me for half a minute
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Everyone got their bunting for the big 3 years as PM celebrations Sunday?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056
    edited July 2022
    Helpful to Truss to have polling say they are all going to do badly. It means members will feel they can go with their hearts.

    Of course people don't really know how each would perform in the role do in reality some will probably close the gap more.
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 127
    eek said:

    Only tidal as a continual 24/7 baseline supply though and I don't think any of us know the reasons behind it being rejected out of hand.

    Storage is still very much a work in progress and that means we have to cover for extreme events like a week without wind...
    Store the excess 'leccy as hydrogen (using electrolysers) or even ammonia or methanol when the wind generation exceeds grid capacity. Basically balancing demand over time

    We can export excess to our neighbours in Europe once wind capacity ramps up.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:
    Not really. It is already widely recognised that nobody knows why antidepressants work and that it is more complicated than "not enough serotonin." The evidence is very good that they do work though.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582
    dixiedean said:
    Off Topic

    If this sort of thing floats your boat try Empire of Pain by Patrick Radden Keefe. An expose of Big Pharma and the Sackler family and their contribution to the world prescription opioid crisis. Fascinating stuff.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,526

    I might suggest you are wrong on that. As an example off the top of my head, Clapham Junction was caused by crap maintenance done at minimum cost. (Not that I blame the poor sod who did the work...)

    And you might notice that drivers were part of the privatised parts of the system: and as you say, that's been *much* better since privatisation.AS has lack of fatal crashes called by train maintenance failures. You can't have it both ways.
    I wasn't aware that I was trying to have it any way. If you want to excuse Railtrack thats up to you. On the bright side they went bust and we don't have to worry about them any more.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    A fun theory - Boris resigns as PM on August 27th, just so Raab is forced to become The Nine Day Queen (PM)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited July 2022
    kinabalu said:

    I don't think the product itself will fly. Quicker play is the only thing that might be an improvement on the current game. Apart from that it fails on every level. The team aspect in particular doesn't work for golf. Ok, the Ryder and Presidents Cups, where there's an "Us v the USA" dynamic, but otherwise no. I mean, who the fuck is going to care if Dustin Johnson's "Chew Boy Riders" or Lee Westwood's "Big Girth Inc" win some 54 hole event at the likes of Trump National? Or indeed which individual wins when all of them are on mega money deals anyway? No, it won't attract the fans, hence won't attract the tv money, hence won't achieve lift off. It'll last as long as the Saudis are prepared to lose money doing it and then peter out.
    The team thing I am far from convinced by, although match play in general is very popular (perhaps they go down that route). The fact they got a big cheque to join, well that doesn't stop us getting excited by the EPL when even the crappy benchwarmers are on $3m a year.

    I wouldn't underestimate the speed of play element. It is far better for spectators and tv.

    What LIV has shown is they are willing to try different things. The PGA Tour have already announced they will also run more events without a cut.

    The logical thing has always been to have a few of these special LIV events that revolve around the weeks when PGA tour is playing the events that nobody cares about and let the players play both.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,912
    It's amusing how 150,000 people is being described as "a limited group" whereas 358 is somehow larger.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    Keystone said:

    Store the excess 'leccy as hydrogen (using electrolysers) or even ammonia or methanol when the wind generation exceeds grid capacity. Basically balancing demand over time

    We can export excess to our neighbours in Europe once wind capacity ramps up.
    AIUI hydrogen conversion is very inefficient; you'd need a lot of excess capacity.

    https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/hydrogen-technology-faces-efficiency-disadvantage-in-power-storage-race-65162028
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,613
    edited July 2022
    algarkirk said:
    '“There’s not a single office tenant here,” he says. “Not one. They were trying to rent them out, then the pandemic happened and – poof! – we got ourselves a ghost town. A Job Centre finally opened here a few months ago, so at least I’ve got some company now.”

    [...]

    Today, the place has a Ballardian air. On a sunny weekday lunchtime, a ripped topless man is the sole inhabitant of the district’s central square, doing press-ups on the manicured lawn and admiring his reflection in the empty plate glass windows. After a long time walking the length of the blocks, trying doorways and pressing buzzers in search of life, I find another man sitting on a kerb sipping a coffee. An office worker, at last?

    “We’re filming an advert for Marks & Spencer,” he tells me. “It’s an ideal location because there are never any people around. If we’re careful with the shots, we can sort of make it look like a normal place.”'
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,526

    A fun theory - Boris resigns as PM on August 27th, just so Raab is forced to become The Nine Day Queen (PM)

    Nine DAYS? I thought 36 hours was the new standard period of time for flouncing.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,526
    Leon said:

    It was a prank


    I was trying to find a combination of words which would be sufficiently plausible to get people googling a possible rumour, and yet, when you look at them, obviously absurd

    The key was the mad word order

    " the Cabinet Minister with the Estonian start up and the whole parrot gay thing jesus"

    The "whole parrot gay thing jesus"??

    Apologies. It amused me for half a minute
    https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/6f4026cb-0927-46ae-b7e2-09b6dcb3a1df
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    AIUI hydrogen conversion is very inefficient; you'd need a lot of excess capacity.

    https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/hydrogen-technology-faces-efficiency-disadvantage-in-power-storage-race-65162028
    Yep - it's about 65% efficiency so you are losing 33% as a minimum unless and until someone invents a better approach and manages to get High Temperature Electrolysis working
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,216
    Yes, what happened to these guys ?
    Curiously silent since then.

    https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1549533976645230592
    Remember how Trump's two top Secret Service agents were practically marching up to capitol hill to impeach Cassidy Hutchinson's claims about them telling her about Trump's feral freakout in the POTUS limo? What happened to that? I thought they were going to clear things up.

    What with that and deleting all their text messages from the 5th and 6th 2021, the Secret Service hasn't covered itself with glory recently.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582
    HYUFD said:

    I suspect 15 TT voters went to Badenoch to knock out Truss, they may now go to Mordaunt having failed to do that, again to try and knock out Truss. Maybe some Sunak voters went to Truss or some Badenoch voters switched to Truss yesterday. If another 10 to 15 Badenoch MPs went to Mourdant, even if all the other Badenoch MPs went to Truss then Mordaunt could be through.
    Your first statement, although not impossible, is I would have thought unlikely. "If" is doing an awful lot of heavy lifting elsewhere too.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Not really. It is already widely recognised that nobody knows why antidepressants work and that it is more complicated than "not enough serotonin." The evidence is very good that they do work though.
    Oh indeed.
    The question of why they do work though is a fascinating one.
    This seems to exclude serotonin levels as a cause from the picture altogether.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,912
    If Mordaunt goes out by one vote it'll be because of Johnson's decision to exclude Tobias Ellwood from the process.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Nigelb said:

    Yes, what happened to these guys ?
    Curiously silent since then.

    https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1549533976645230592
    Remember how Trump's two top Secret Service agents were practically marching up to capitol hill to impeach Cassidy Hutchinson's claims about them telling her about Trump's feral freakout in the POTUS limo? What happened to that? I thought they were going to clear things up.

    What with that and deleting all their text messages from the 5th and 6th 2021, the Secret Service hasn't covered itself with glory recently.

    It was a coup.
    Sadly it seems Biden has left it too late, and there’s a real risk of Trump returning.
    I’m which case my wife will insist we return to the UK.

    Trump should be prison.

    There’s a lesson here for Sunak Rishi, perhaps.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    I wasn't aware that I was trying to have it any way. If you want to excuse Railtrack thats up to you. On the bright side they went bust and we don't have to worry about them any more.
    If you want to excuse BR for its similar rate of crashes, that's up to you.

    The bright side is that we had 12 years with no passenger fatalities in a train crash, and 15 years with only one (the Stonehaven derailment). That's something to feel good about, even if it did happen in a part-privatised system. Long may it continue.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,056
    Leon said:

    Picture the scene in say, 2024, when Prime Minister Liz Yawn Truss is doing an election walkabout in Newent, and the sparse crowds are politely chatting, and looking at their phones, and drifting off.... and then a mop of blonde hair appears

    OMFG it's BORIS!!

    BORIS!!

    Suddenly the crowds rush to get a glimpse, and to shake hands with the great man, and laugh at his feeble but well delivered jokes, and they walk away with a smile, and Liz Wossface remains ignored in the corner. Along with Rishi Sunak

    Repeat for PM Starmer at state events, perhaps

    That's certainly how it plays out in his head. And those who have remained loyal still love him. It's the other version of Boris Derangment Syndrome. So what happens next?

    If you were the next Conservative Leader, how do you handle Boris? Try to keep him onside, or try to crush him at his point of maximum weakness?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056
    nico679 said:

    So far Truss has been running away from the tax rises and trying to avoid any responsibility.

    This will change in the final 2 . She might be favourite but I don’t think it’s impossible for Sunak to overtake her .

    She presently bears him but not by as much as every con winner in a members vote has to date. Its possible.

    But he has mere weeks. So many vote early.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    Leon said:

    It was a prank


    I was trying to find a combination of words which would be sufficiently plausible to get people googling a possible rumour, and yet, when you look at them, obviously absurd

    The key was the mad word order

    " the Cabinet Minister with the Estonian start up and the whole parrot gay thing jesus"

    The "whole parrot gay thing jesus"??

    Apologies. It amused me for half a minute
    I see. So @Cicero is still the only one with the goodies on the alleged Uk govt scandal being discussed in Finland
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited July 2022
    Tobias Ellwood has had the whip momentarily restored just long enough for him to cast a proxy vote in the leadership election.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Everyone seems to be on anti-depressants these days.

    Seriously, it’s getting to the point where to not be on them is becoming stubbornly retro, like refusing to have a television in the house.

    In which case perhaps we need to ask whether it’s society itself which is sick, just like RD Laing suggested.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    That's certainly how it plays out in his head. And those who have remained loyal still love him. It's the other version of Boris Derangment Syndrome. So what happens next?

    If you were the next Conservative Leader, how do you handle Boris? Try to keep him onside, or try to crush him at his point of maximum weakness?
    Seriously?
    Wait for the Privileges Committee report and then remove the whip.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,664
    IshmaelZ said:

    Not really. It is already widely recognised that nobody knows why antidepressants work and that it is more complicated than "not enough serotonin." The evidence is very good that they do work though.
    Depression for some is unavoidable, and every treatment that works a godsend. Deeply unfashionable, but I know people whose lives have been saved by ECT.

    OTOH just as prison can be described as an expensive way of making bad people worse, modern life can be described as an experiment in what happens when you do your best as a society to maximise the possibility of everyone being depressed.

    From which starting point an interesting array of strategies emerge.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    Yes I was on antidepressants and they probably saved my life in addition to counselling.
    Sympathies. As a teenager I thought I was depressed (I had a few reasons to be at the time), but when I grew older and got to know more people, I realised it had been nothing more than teenage angst. I've since seen the Black Dog stalking other people, and it's hideous. I've never suffered anything like that, and I hope I never do.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    Picture the scene in say, 2024, when Prime Minister Liz Yawn Truss is doing an election walkabout in Newent, and the sparse crowds are politely chatting, and looking at their phones, and drifting off.... and then a mop of blonde hair appears

    OMFG it's BORIS!!

    BORIS!!

    Suddenly the crowds rush to get a glimpse, and to shake hands with the great man, and laugh at his feeble but well delivered jokes, and they walk away with a smile, and Liz Wossface remains ignored in the corner. Along with Rishi Sunak

    Repeat for PM Starmer at state events, perhaps

    You have a ridiculous crush on this shallow worthless man. Man up for heaven's sake. Have some self-respect STOP

    But where I agree with you about Johnson - indeed I've said this before myself a few times - is that he is a genuine star for a certain type of voter and it's no sure thing the Tories will do better at the polls without him than with him STOP

    Plenty of Leavers in those traditional ex Labour seats voted "Boris" not Conservative - in their minds - at GE19 and they'll be pissed off that he's been ousted just for being - again in their minds - his roguish adorable self STOP

    So, yes, some will come back to the Tories with him gone, but they'll lose votes too. It's a matter of what the net impact will be STOP
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582
    ...

    Seriously?
    Wait for the Privileges Committee report and then remove the whip.
    He and Corbyn can sit together as Independents!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    moonshine said:

    I see. So @Cicero is still the only one with the goodies on the alleged Uk govt scandal being discussed in Finland
    A search of Finnish social media has revealed nothing.

    Cicero needs to cough up, or at least provide a bloody hint.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    So what time is the result today?
    Is it 4pm?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872

    Tobias Ellwood has had the whip momentarily restored just long enough for him to cast a proxy vote in the leadership election.

    The correct decision.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,912

    Tobias Ellwood has had the whip momentarily restored just long enough for him to cast a proxy vote in the leadership election.

    Thanks, I didn't know that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited July 2022

    Everyone seems to be on anti-depressants these days.

    Seriously, it’s getting to the point where to not be on them is becoming stubbornly retro, like refusing to have a television in the house.

    In which case perhaps we need to ask whether it’s society itself which is sick, just like RD Laing suggested.

    Social media has a lot to answer for....back in the day you might have heard there are rich people who live certain lives not available to you, but everything was really based in the reality of what you saw around yourself, now people are bombarded by (most faked) images of what seems like everybody else living these amazing lives....then you used to go to your local pub and chat up ladies and again there wasn't infinite bombardment of 10 out of 10 beautiful people...instead people on dating apps and unless you are a 10 out of 10 you are going to struggle to get a date with anybody but a 1...and of course you get bombarded by toxicity from every which way for the smallest step "out of line" is filmed and spread across social media.

    Then all the stresses of modern western world with house prices, student debt, etc etc etc.

    If you get sucked into that from a very early age not surprising people can be very down about their life.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    The correct decision.
    Boo. The banter heuristic is not on form today.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,751
    kinabalu said:

    You have a ridiculous crush on this shallow worthless man. Man up for heaven's sake. Have some self-respect STOP

    But where I agree with you about Johnson - indeed I've said this before myself a few times - is that he is a genuine star for a certain type of voter and it's no sure thing the Tories will do better at the polls without him than with him STOP

    Plenty of Leavers in those traditional ex Labour seats voted "Boris" not Conservative - in their minds - at GE19 and they'll be pissed off that he's been ousted just for being - again in their minds - his roguish adorable self STOP

    So, yes, some will come back to the Tories with him gone, but they'll lose votes too. It's a matter of what the net impact will be STOP
    Are you using an over literal voice dictation machine?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,281
    Theresa May did not applaud Boris, reluctantly stood at the end but still not applauding alongside most of her fellow Tory MPs

    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1549738560647045122?s=20&t=wVPiik6W5cKMAasDlDltnw
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    By the way @Leon, I only just watched that video of Tim Peake being interviewed by Richard Madeley that you sent.

    Most successful British astronaut of all time says these aren’t an earthly technology, the debate is really whether they’re alien drones or time travellers or something else. British public shrugs, British establishment has nothing to say either.

    Meanwhile in the US the legislative noose tightens, new UAP whistleblower protection laws passing through both houses of Congress as we speak.

    Did you see Lue Elizondo’s formal submission to the Pentagon Inspector General, which was recently released? He named specific individuals who he said illegally blocked information from flowing up the chain of command and who destroyed evidence, because it clashed with their religious beliefs. And directed the IG to the sever location of a 23 min long video that he indicates represents irrefutable proof that Dorothy’s not in Kansas.

    Criminal penalty for lying on that form is oh, only 20 years.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    Carnyx said:

    '“There’s not a single office tenant here,” he says. “Not one. They were trying to rent them out, then the pandemic happened and – poof! – we got ourselves a ghost town. A Job Centre finally opened here a few months ago, so at least I’ve got some company now.”

    [...]

    Today, the place has a Ballardian air. On a sunny weekday lunchtime, a ripped topless man is the sole inhabitant of the district’s central square, doing press-ups on the manicured lawn and admiring his reflection in the empty plate glass windows. After a long time walking the length of the blocks, trying doorways and pressing buzzers in search of life, I find another man sitting on a kerb sipping a coffee. An office worker, at last?

    “We’re filming an advert for Marks & Spencer,” he tells me. “It’s an ideal location because there are never any people around. If we’re careful with the shots, we can sort of make it look like a normal place.”'

    And yet there were similar articles about the Shard a few years after it was finished and "empty" - now it is a huge success

    And multiple similar articles fastened on to Canary Wharf, in its struggling early days, it was called Thatcher's doomed vanity project, devoid of tenants, blah blah; look at it now

    Indeed these accusations are themselves a rich part of London history. Two enormous houses were built in the mid Victorian era in Knightsbridge, kittycorner from Harrods. They were so big they were like palaces, and at first they were nicknamed "Malta and Gibraltar". Why? Because "like Malta and Gibraltar, they will never be taken". ie Never have a tenant

    See also Tobacco Dock in Docklands



    "After the London Docklands ceased seaborne trade, the warehouse and surrounding areas fell into dereliction until Tobacco Dock was turned into a shopping centre which opened in 1989. However, due to the early 1990s recession, it was forced to close two years later. In 2003 English Heritage placed it on its 'at risk' register, preventing many developers from attempting a rejuvenation of the former London Docklands site. For TWO DECADES Tobacco Dock stood largely empty; it was used as a barracks for military personnel providing security to the 2012 London Olympics."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobacco_Dock

    And now?

    They've turned it into a highly successful events venue



    https://www.theresident.co.uk/things-to-do/london-craft-beer-festival-9127264

    "As part of their commercial launch, they will be exhibiting at the sold out Xerocon, at Tobacco Dock, London, on 20th and 21st July in partnership with leading accountancy app Xero."


    https://ffnews.com/newsarticle/be-a-know-it-all-the-solution-to-the-61-billion-late-payment-problem-has-launched/

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    MaxPB said:

    I wonder what the funding model for Sizewell C is, HPC made some sense because it doesn't pay any RoI until it generates electricity. All of the risk sits with EDF. I worry that the government is going to be on the hook for SC in a way that we weren't for HPC. The risk of unlimited delays and cost overruns would sit with the taxpayer under the new arrangement. It doesn't keep EDF in line over costs and delivery time frames.

    It's Regulated Asset Base model to lower the WACC that caused a much higher cost at HPC.

    Feel free to DM if you want to know more.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,056
    Nigelb said:

    Yes, what happened to these guys ?
    Curiously silent since then.

    https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1549533976645230592
    Remember how Trump's two top Secret Service agents were practically marching up to capitol hill to impeach Cassidy Hutchinson's claims about them telling her about Trump's feral freakout in the POTUS limo? What happened to that? I thought they were going to clear things up.

    What with that and deleting all their text messages from the 5th and 6th 2021, the Secret Service hasn't covered itself with glory recently.

    Seems to be a scandal ridden group in any case.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818
    edited July 2022
    Should add. I shared that article not in any way to diss anti-depressants. I've been on them myself for long periods. And needed to be.
    But because I take a keen interest in why I needed them then, but don't now?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299
    HYUFD said:

    Theresa May did not applaud Boris, reluctantly stood at the end but still not applauding alongside most of her fellow Tory MPs

    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1549738560647045122?s=20&t=wVPiik6W5cKMAasDlDltnw

    Never mind not clapping, she did well not to give him the finger.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,684
    Those numbers are just laugh out loud given Truss will soon be leader.

  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 127
    eek said:

    Yep - it's about 65% efficiency so you are losing 33% as a minimum unless and until someone invents a better approach and manages to get High Temperature Electrolysis working
    The efficiency is coming down - and the largest installations in the world are tiny. Shell's investment in 200MW in Rotterdam will be the biggest when it starts.

    As for excess electricity - we could simply stop paying wind farms not to produce when supply exceeds demand.

    It is coming - although I guess it won't be in the UK now Johnson's history
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 127
    Keystone said:

    The efficiency is coming down - and the largest installations in the world are tiny. Shell's investment in 200MW in Rotterdam will be the biggest when it starts.

    As for excess electricity - we could simply stop paying wind farms not to produce when supply exceeds demand.

    It is coming - although I guess it won't be in the UK now Johnson's history
    Efficiency is "improving"...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,472

    Social media has a lot to answer for....back in the day you might have heard there are rich people who live certain lives not available to you, but everything was really based in the reality of what you saw around yourself, now people are bombarded by (most faked) images of what seems like everybody else living these amazing lives....then you used to go to your local pub and chat up ladies and again there wasn't infinite bombardment of 10 out of 10 beautiful people...instead people on dating apps and unless you are a 10 out of 10 you are going to struggle to get a date with anybody but a 1...and of course you get bombarded by toxicity from every which way for the smallest step "out of line" is filmed and spread across social media.

    Then all the stresses of modern western world with house prices, student debt, etc etc etc.

    If you get sucked into that from a very early age not surprising people can be very down about their life.
    The exaggeration of the “normal” level of “success” is compounded by the ludicrous rush to achieve said “success” in 60 seconds or less.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,912
    edited July 2022
    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Sunak v Truss shows that - despite all the hype - the Tory Party is still serious about governing."

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1549411568311574530
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    HYUFD said:

    Theresa May did not applaud Boris, reluctantly stood at the end but still not applauding alongside most of her fellow Tory MPs

    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1549738560647045122?s=20&t=wVPiik6W5cKMAasDlDltnw

    Stupid old witch
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Leon said:


    And yet there were similar articles about the Shard a few years after it was finished and "empty" - now it is a huge success

    And multiple similar articles fastened on to Canary Wharf, in its struggling early days, it was called Thatcher's doomed vanity project, devoid of tenants, blah blah; look at it now

    Indeed these accusations are themselves a rich part of London history. Two enormous houses were built in the mid Victorian era in Knightsbridge, kittycorner from Harrods. They were so big they were like palaces, and at first they were nicknamed "Malta and Gibraltar". Why? Because "like Malta and Gibraltar, they will never be taken". ie Never have a tenant

    See also Tobacco Dock in Docklands



    "After the London Docklands ceased seaborne trade, the warehouse and surrounding areas fell into dereliction until Tobacco Dock was turned into a shopping centre which opened in 1989. However, due to the early 1990s recession, it was forced to close two years later. In 2003 English Heritage placed it on its 'at risk' register, preventing many developers from attempting a rejuvenation of the former London Docklands site. For TWO DECADES Tobacco Dock stood largely empty; it was used as a barracks for military personnel providing security to the 2012 London Olympics."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tobacco_Dock

    And now?

    They've turned it into a highly successful events venue



    https://www.theresident.co.uk/things-to-do/london-craft-beer-festival-9127264

    "As part of their commercial launch, they will be exhibiting at the sold out Xerocon, at Tobacco Dock, London, on 20th and 21st July in partnership with leading accountancy app Xero."


    https://ffnews.com/newsarticle/be-a-know-it-all-the-solution-to-the-61-billion-late-payment-problem-has-launched/

    The development in question is right next to City Airport so hardly in the middle of nowhere. In ten years it will be buzzing.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,872
    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Sunak v Truss shows that - despite all the hype - the Tory Party is still serious about governing."

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1549411568311574530

    Sunak v Truss shows that - despite all the hype - the Tory Party Oxford is still serious about governing."
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Sunak v Truss shows that - despite all the hype - the Tory Party is still serious about governing."

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1549411568311574530

    🤣 the Daily Mail must pay this jokers wages.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited July 2022

    The exaggeration of the “normal” level of “success” is compounded by the ludicrous rush to achieve said “success” in 60 seconds or less.
    What you mean you didn't have a garage full of lambos by the time you were 25 like everybody else?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    moonshine said:

    By the way @Leon, I only just watched that video of Tim Peake being interviewed by Richard Madeley that you sent.

    Most successful British astronaut of all time says these aren’t an earthly technology, the debate is really whether they’re alien drones or time travellers or something else. British public shrugs, British establishment has nothing to say either.

    Meanwhile in the US the legislative noose tightens, new UAP whistleblower protection laws passing through both houses of Congress as we speak.

    Did you see Lue Elizondo’s formal submission to the Pentagon Inspector General, which was recently released? He named specific individuals who he said illegally blocked information from flowing up the chain of command and who destroyed evidence, because it clashed with their religious beliefs. And directed the IG to the sever location of a 23 min long video that he indicates represents irrefutable proof that Dorothy’s not in Kansas.

    Criminal penalty for lying on that form is oh, only 20 years.

    My present supposition is that this is all dark psy-ops in the US government, either to confuse the Chinese or to cover some genuinely amazing tech that the US has developed. But the spooks are exploiting/harnessing a core of true believers, who think there really IS something unworldly Up There, despite the notable lack of hard evidence
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582
    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Sunak v Truss shows that - despite all the hype - the Tory Party is still serious about governing."

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1549411568311574530

    Can someone remind me how his mother once described Dan in his professional capacity?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,751
    dixiedean said:

    Should add. I shared that article not in any way to diss anti-depressants. I've been on them myself for long periods. And needed to be.
    But because I take a keen interest in why I needed them then, but don't now?

    I think that it also indicates that we need to study a lot more closely why they work. If it is not because they are boosting seratonin, for example (which may simply be boosted as an indirect result of whatever is working) what is the mechanism that helps? And, having found it, can we make that part work better?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,751
    Andy_JS said:

    "(((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges

    Sunak v Truss shows that - despite all the hype - the Tory Party is still serious about governing."

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1549411568311574530

    Exactly what I said last night. But it might still be right.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,299

    The team thing I am far from convinced by, although match play in general is very popular (perhaps they go down that route). The fact they got a big cheque to join, well that doesn't stop us getting excited by the EPL when even the crappy benchwarmers are on $3m a year.

    I wouldn't underestimate the speed of play element. It is far better for spectators and tv.

    What LIV has shown is they are willing to try different things. The PGA Tour have already announced they will also run more events without a cut.

    The logical thing has always been to have a few of these special LIV events that revolve around the weeks when PGA tour is playing the events that nobody cares about and let the players play both.
    It can be an addition to the game, sure, but not its future. And yes slow play IS a bane.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,582

    Those numbers are just laugh out loud given Truss will soon be leader.

    Not even the current Conservative Party is that daft...surely?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,818

    The exaggeration of the “normal” level of “success” is compounded by the ludicrous rush to achieve said “success” in 60 seconds or less.
    Success will soon equal able to turn the central heating on.
This discussion has been closed.