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Liz Truss now odds-on favourite in the CON leadership betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Except I'm not wrong, I've lived for years in a city where 40C temperatures are seen almost every summer as a matter of course - and tourists flock there in no small part for the glorious weather. Other people who've lived in similarly hot locales, like @Sandpit have confirmed what I said that 40C is just not that exceptional for much of the world.

    Not to forget that almost all the time, almost all of the UK was in the 30s (or below in Scotland) not in the 40s today.

    Yeah we had some good weather today, its unfortunately exceptional, but other places including where I've personally lived in the past enjoy this as a matter of course as normal weather not unprecedentedly hot peaks.

    Of course they're more set up to enjoy it, but it doesn't take much to get yourselves set up to enjoy it here either. My pool in the garden cost me £50, last year to buy and is now on its second summer. Its cost me £3 this year to buy some bicycle inner tube patches to use on it as it got some scratches and however much the water cost to fill it up, thankfully I'm not on a metre for the water so even that won't have been much.
    Sydney does not see 40 almost every summer. Its inhabitants whine like really whiny things when it does.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    You are losing it, mate. You have just said "If you need to cover from this, I wouldn't recommend you visit Death Valley." either you have never been there, or only in some sort of record winter low, cos I can fucking promise you that in normal conditions you stop and get out of your aircon car, you think Jesus Christ for about 2 seconds, you get back in car and fuck off. If you think different you have either never been there or are a reptile. You think back to glorious Australian childhood 40s like the English think back to snowy Christmas days. Didn't happen.
    Death Valley was a joke not serious, not many people in the beaches in Death Valley now, are there? Yes I have been there, and yes a few minutes out of the car and then back into the air conditioning and move on is more than enough there thank you. But that isn't as low as 40C.

    Snowy Christmas days may be exceptional in the UK, but snow in the UK does happen though more commonly in January or February than Christmas; just as 40C+ in Aus does happen almost every year - although again probably not on Christmas day, more typically in January.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,305


    I disagree. He can get reports. He can consult. He can fact find. He can have a plan. And he can lobby. Even where he cannot decide stuff, a decent Mayor can do all that.

    Seeing as climate change hasn't happened overnight, it's not unreasonable to ask whether his predecessor did anything either.

    We don't know what reports or advice Sadiq Khan has and every local authority will be going cap in hand to central Government asking for extra money to help mitigate the effects of future heatwaves.

    I do agree there needs to be national, regional and local planning and thinking on this but the fire outbreaks on the eastern and southern edges of London (I'm not sure I'd call Wennington "East London" in all honesty) raise some questions about the risks to housing near land which may or may not be being properly maintained and managed.

  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,644
    ydoethur said:

    What is the largest conurbation in England without a river in it? Cannock must surely be near the top, and it's hardly large.
    Well I reckon you can find an insignificant brook in almost any settlement.
    For obvious reasons - communication and water supply - most towns form by rivers. The exceptions tend to be those formed for reasons of mineral supplies (does Cannock fall into this category?) or defence - but so peaceful is Britain's history we have very few of these: defensive advantages were disadvantageous for water or communications, and I think most of our defensive hill settlements were abandoned after the iron age.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355
    kle4 said:

    One of the pieces of advice I most took to heart at university was don't worry too much about looking or sounding stupid. It's going to happen at some point regardless, so don't let it stop you from raising something, or lock you into position.

    Not that I follow the advice perfectly, but then I am a worrier by nature.

    In my tutorials I expect all students to answer questions, whether they get it right or wrong. Some hate it, but I think it’s valuable experience.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    Technically, it might be Portsmouth, though not in a satisfactory way.

    Much the same might be said of the ambitions of one of Portsmouth's MPs.
    It wasn't until 2021 that I even knew Portsmouth was mostly on an island.

    And it wasn't until 2022 19th July at 20.55 that I discovered the main island of the Shetlands is called Mainland.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,920
    edited July 2022
    Heavy and cool rain in Hammersmith / West Ken here now. A moment of relief, and massively cooler. Almost like one of the most Hollywood moments of catharsis, where lovers will jump around melodramatically together after days of a build-up of pressure, soaked to the bone.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870
    edited July 2022
    Incidentally there was a conversation upthread I was tagged in about teacher pay and pupil funding. In a sense, everyone missed the key questions;

    1) It's not what is offered, it's what is funded (ISTR @Foxy picked up on this for junior and senior doctors, although he noted the latter got a big cut in real terms). So far the government has intimated it will fund the stinking rise for NQTs (or ECTs as they are now called) and not for those who have been in the profession more than three years. I have not seen anything to suggest that will change. Which means the latter are most unlikely to see anything at all. This at a time when workload is being dramatically and irresponsibly increased.

    2) By closing the gap between new and more experienced teachers in this way, the government has ensured there will be progressively less financial reason to stay in the profession as the years roll by. In a sector where 40% of staff quit in the first five years, is that really the message we want to send out?

    So it's actually considerably more stupid than it looks, which even by the low standards of the DfE is quite astonishing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Except I'm not wrong, I've lived for years in a city where 40C temperatures are seen almost every summer as a matter of course - and tourists flock there in no small part for the glorious weather. Other people who've lived in similarly hot locales, like @Sandpit have confirmed what I said that 40C is just not that exceptional for much of the world.

    Not to forget that almost all the time, almost all of the UK was in the 30s (or below in Scotland) not in the 40s today.

    Yeah we had some good weather today, its unfortunately exceptional, but other places including where I've personally lived in the past enjoy this as a matter of course as normal weather not unprecedentedly hot peaks.

    Of course they're more set up to enjoy it, but it doesn't take much to get yourselves set up to enjoy it here either. My pool in the garden cost me £50, last year to buy and is now on its second summer. Its cost me £3 this year to buy some bicycle inner tube patches to use on it as it got some scratches and however much the water cost to fill it up, thankfully I'm not on a metre for the water so even that won't have been much.
    But @Sandpit himself has said that he hates 40C+ Dubai summer weather and how only mad people go there - by mistake - to "enjoy" it

    But otherwise I refer you to my earlier remark: "do not pursue futile arguments to the exhaustion of all utility"

    If you want to continue this bizarre argument you will have to argue with yourself
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Sydney does not see 40 almost every summer. Its inhabitants whine like really whiny things when it does.
    Not my experience. Its inhabitants flock to the beach when it happens.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    Three wickets in an over is not bad. Can Eoin Morgan be made coach of the ODI side?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,305
    kle4 said:

    Perhaps there's a lesson in that, eh, Rory?
    I'm sure he would be warmly welcomed by Sir Ed and the party.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited July 2022

    In my tutorials I expect all students to answer questions, whether they get it right or wrong. Some hate it, but I think it’s valuable experience.
    Indeed. When I was teaching I asked students to make suggestions about specific problems - it was more important to develop a range of hypotheses for testing (and methodically) than worry about whether it was right or wrong. Which, in any case, we don't know a priori for a new problem.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355
    kle4 said:

    It wasn't until 2021 that I even knew Portsmouth was mostly on an island.

    And it wasn't until 2022 19th July at 20.55 that I discovered the main island of the Shetlands is called Mainland.
    My M-in-L lives on Hayling Island. You have no idea how many times people ask “Is it actually an island?” I have no idea why people struggle with this. There is a bridge you have to cross and everything. Pompey is less obvious, but is an island too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870
    Cookie said:

    Well I reckon you can find an insignificant brook in almost any settlement.
    For obvious reasons - communication and water supply - most towns form by rivers. The exceptions tend to be those formed for reasons of mineral supplies (does Cannock fall into this category?) or defence - but so peaceful is Britain's history we have very few of these: defensive advantages were disadvantageous for water or communications, and I think most of our defensive hill settlements were abandoned after the iron age.
    Yes, Cannock is an ex coal town. Its water supply is by springs from Cannock Chase.

    Although on a careful check, it's very slightly closer to the River Penk than Lichfield (a religious site) is to the River Trent.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    kle4 said:

    It wasn't until 2021 that I even knew Portsmouth was mostly on an island.

    And it wasn't until 2022 19th July at 20.55 that I discovered the main island of the Shetlands is called Mainland.
    Orkney too, but sometimes it is called Pomona or Hrossey.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    According to that political sage Beth Rigby there was skulduggery going on .

    In which Sunak voters lent votes to Truss to knockout Badenoch and those votes next time will go to Mordaunt .

    Quite how she comes to this conclusion is beyond me given Sunak isn’t so far clear that his voters could afford to do this . That it could have backfired if he then went down in total votes leading to headlines of lost momentum .

    And how do they know in the final round how many Badenoch votes will go to each candidate .
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    kle4 said:

    It wasn't until 2021 that I even knew Portsmouth was mostly on an island.

    And it wasn't until 2022 19th July at 20.55 that I discovered the main island of the Shetlands is called Mainland.
    Does Sherborne in Dorset count? It's on a hill.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    nico679 said:

    Liz Truss failed to support the judiciary after the disgusting attacks on them by the cesspit right wing press . She sold out UK farmers . She got schooled by Lavrov and will be a puppet for the ERG and destroy what’s left of the UKs reputation .

    She has zero empathy , has a creepy obsession with Maggie’s wardrobe and was a Bozo lapdog .

    Apart from that she’s marvelous !

    What is her greatest delivery’s anyway?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001
    IshmaelZ said:

    You are losing it, mate. You have just said
    "If you need to cover from this, I wouldn't recommend you visit Death Valley." either
    you have never been there, or only in some sort of record winter low, cos I can fucking
    promise you that in normal conditions you stop and get out of your aircon car, you think Jesus Christ for about 2 seconds, you get back in car and fuck off. If you think
    different you have either never been there or are a reptile. You think back to glorious Australian childhood 40s like the English think back to snowy Christmas days. Didn't
    happen.
    Your last sentence is incorrect. There is an Englishman who remembers those Christmas card snowy christmases. Walking the streets paying urchins a shilling to get them to dust the snow off his top hat. Damning the treacherous tradesman Mr Scrunak for being wealthier than him.

    He would stand with the snow falling on his lackey holding his new-fangled “umbrella” contraption talking to his family, the other gas lampposts, and vow that one day this magnificent country would still be ruled by Etonians in top hats or very strong women like his governess.

    His name was Jacob Rees Marley. Forever to be damned to hell chained to his money boxes and regret.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,153
    For all you Simpsons fans:


  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    Rain!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,322

    To a southerner like me that is abroad...
    Ditto. Being from Surrey I find they speak an odd language.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,507
    ydoethur said:

    What is the largest conurbation in England without a river in it? Cannock must surely be near the top, and it's hardly large.
    As a starter, I'm going to offer as guesses a couple of major cities whose rivers are pretty small by comparison.

    Bradford - a few miles south of the Aire on little more than Dykes and Ditches.
    Birmingham - the Brum Tame is hardly a mighty force

    Nowhere is totally away from a river, but gut feeling is some pretty big places span some pretty major watersheds.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    Torrential rain

    Wow
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    nico679 said:

    According to that political sage Beth Rigby there was skulduggery going on .

    In which Sunak voters lent votes to Truss to knockout Badenoch and those votes next time will go to Mordaunt .

    Quite how she comes to this conclusion is beyond me given Sunak isn’t so far clear that his voters could afford to do this . That it could have backfired if he then went down in total votes leading to headlines of lost momentum .

    And how do they know in the final round how many Badenoch votes will go to each candidate .

    Like many conspiracies it relies too much on either omnipotence or omniscience.

    He's in a bind whoever he was facing, even if he felt he could overturn a deficit of support better with Mordaunt and Truss, he doesnt seem far enough ahead with MPs to take that risk, plus the uncertainty you mention. Are we to believe his MPs backers are that coordinated, across multiple rounds, and are so good at estimating things?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,051

    You're sounding like a ScotNat.

    I dropped those truth bombs (and relevant videos) in one of the Tory member WhatsApp groups I'm a part of, I think I've switched half of them from anyone but Sunak to anyone but Truss.
    I'm grateful for you for pointing it out.

    Had you not done so I'd have no idea she used to be any of those things.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited July 2022

    I guess their numbers would stabilise once they start to reach the limit of food availability, and/or something starts eating them or their eggs/chicks. I wonder if they are out-competing some native bird species for certain foods?
    They must be, almost by definition, but also limited in their own turn. Or there would be about 200x as many, as they have been messing around for almost two centuries. Don't know enough about them to say more about between-species interactions.

    https://www.newscientist.com/definition/ring-necked-parakeet/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    Cookie said:

    The first and best lesson I learned at university was how to climb down from an argument.
    I met a highly competitive and argumentative Geordie - he was fond of an argument, but if you pointed out errors in his argument, he'd just say "Ah, you're not wrong there." And that was that! I was tremendously impressed. Up until that point everyone I had ever met would continue to defend an increasingly obviously wrong point indefinitely, looking dafter and dafter, rather than admit they were wrong. I'm fairly sure I did the same. I don't think it occurred to me not to. The shame of admitting you were wrong was perceived as greater than the shame and inconvenience of defending an increasingly indefensible point.
    One of my daughters learned this lesson by the age of 6. I'm not sure the other two have yet.
    They could go far in politics then.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    edited July 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Does Sherborne in Dorset count? It's on a hill.
    You mean Shaftesbury, shirley?

    Sherborne's in a valley - the clue is in the name.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,927
    The tradition of prime ministers being known by their second name would continue with Liz Truss. Her first name is Mary.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,929

    Thanks for the list Casino, I appreciate you have really tried, and I had a good think how to reply to all that more politely than Dixo.

    But it doesn’t deserve a more polite response than Dixos.

    An opportunist career girl who brown noses relentlessly will tick every single box you invented whilst still being a hapless fraud. And you are spinning it in favour whilst conceding she is rubbish communicator - while communicating is the number 1 priority skill set for the job she is applying for.

    Even if the Conservatives go on to lose in 24 under Rishi, at least they limit the damage, otherwise thrown out for being diabolical at running the economy and managing Brexit stays with the voters for how many general elections? As my Dad told me last week, it’s not just the one election loss at stake here.
    Think that could be right. Rishi at least looks like a serious option, and would be a decent PM. Enough to remain competitive, and lose not too badly. Truss could easily preside over an utter car-crash - impossible to imagine her leading an election campaign - would make Starmer look like Barack Obama.

    The one who could take the fight to Labour is, of course, Penny, but she would be a risk. That's why she needs to be able to compete with Rishi for the crown, so we can assess her mettle under pressure. But, unfortunately, too many of the MPs are factionalists who cannot see beyond the end of their noses.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Pro_Rata said:

    As a starter, I'm going to offer as guesses a couple of major cities whose rivers are pretty small by comparison.

    Bradford - a few miles south of the Aire on little more than Dykes and Ditches.
    Birmingham - the Brum Tame is hardly a mighty force

    Nowhere is totally away from a river, but gut feeling is some pretty big places span some pretty major watersheds.
    Canals ...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870
    Pro_Rata said:

    As a starter, I'm going to offer as guesses a couple of major cities whose rivers are pretty small by comparison.

    Bradford - a few miles south of the Aire on little more than Dykes and Ditches.
    Birmingham - the Brum Tame is hardly a mighty force

    Nowhere is totally away from a river, but gut feeling is some pretty big places span some pretty major watersheds.
    Birmingham actually has three rivers - the Cole, the Rea and the Tame - although as you note none are very large at the time they flow through it.

    I know next to nothing about Bradford, so I'll take your word for it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    Pro_Rata said:

    As a starter, I'm going to offer as guesses a couple of major cities whose rivers are pretty small by comparison.

    Bradford - a few miles south of the Aire on little more than Dykes and Ditches.
    Birmingham - the Brum Tame is hardly a mighty force

    Nowhere is totally away from a river, but gut feeling is some pretty big places span some pretty major watersheds.
    The Old Town of Edinburgh is some distance from the Water of Leith - which as its name suggests properly belongs as a river to Leith rather than Edinburgh. If there was a way of calculating a city to river ratio (population divided by flow rate?) I think Edinburgh would be pretty high up the charts.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,927
    Leon said:

    Torrential rain

    Wow

    That wasn't in the forecast as far as I know.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    stodge said:

    Seeing as climate change hasn't happened overnight, it's not unreasonable to ask whether his predecessor did anything either.

    We don't know what reports or advice Sadiq Khan has and every local authority will be going cap in hand to central Government asking for extra money to help mitigate the effects of future heatwaves.

    I do agree there needs to be national, regional and local planning and thinking on this but the fire outbreaks on the eastern and southern edges of London (I'm not sure I'd call Wennington "East London" in all honesty) raise some questions about the risks to housing near land which may or may not be being properly maintained and managed.

    I’m glad I’m debating you round to the right side of the argument, but really I’m saying it is mayors constant partisan political digs that grate, whilst if I were in the post I would use the time and microphones for something more apolitical and leave as much good legacy behind as possible.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    You mean Shaftesbury, shirley?

    Sherborne's in a valley - the clue is in the name.
    Of course, sorry. Quite right. Apols. Too hot and too much Aussie red with game pie, home grown potatoes and pickled beetroot, followed by some Beaumes de Venise.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Johnson won the MPs and the members. May won the MPs and would have the members on the polling. Cameron won the MPs and the members.

    Rishi isn't winning the MPs here and he probably won't win the members.

    The members aren't the problem here. This goes back to 2001 and the belief that Ken Clarke was robbed by the rank & file.

    (Interestingly, that was also a near three-way where the MPs couldn't decide - and Clarke had most voting against him)
    Part of the problem isn’t necessarily the members per se but that the MPs spend more time determine their voting on who will play best or worst with the members (or will do very well but needs to be kept out) than will actually be best at the job. And there is also the fundamental problem with the system that you only need a third (max) of the MPs supporting you to have a shot at being leader but (in theory) a third is nowhere near enough to avoid being kicked out on a confidence motion - essentially IDS problem.

    An MP who has never been required to cast a vote for you as the best leader, is going to have no problem with voting against you in a confidence motion at the first sign of trouble. So it makes the leadership unstable from the start.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,204
    Erdogan leaves Putin waiting, and he doesn’t look happy about it:

    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1549472588035932160
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,051
    Leon said:

    Torrential rain

    Wow

    Do we have to put up with this from you for the next 50 years?

    Hopefully death will intervene.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    The Old Town of Edinburgh is some distance from the Water of Leith - which as its name suggests properly belongs as a river to Leith rather than Edinburgh. If there was a way of calculating a city to river ratio (population divided by flow rate?) I think Edinburgh would be pretty high up the charts.
    That did lead me to an old BBC pieve about cities most likely to run out of water. Rather terrifying actually.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-42982959
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    Do we have to put up with this from you for the next 50 years?

    Hopefully death will intervene.
    Whose?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870

    Worst of it is that the DfE really think they've been clever here.

    The theory is that ex-teachers typically swallow a pay cut of ten precent or so when they go and do something else. This shows that money is not the solution to retention problems.

    The flaws in this argument are left as an exercise for the reader.

    (One one hand it's true; the amount of cash to get me back would be huge- the sort of amount that couldn't be demanded with a straight face. On the other hand, the stuff that would get me back, basically be nicer employers, is on nobody's mental maps.)
    The snag with the DfE is that they always think they're clever. They believe firmly in Lord Jay's dictum and see themselves as the living embodiment of it.

    This would matter much less if they weren't so very fucking stupid.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    Cookie said:

    The first and best lesson I learned at university was how to climb down from an argument.
    I met a highly competitive and argumentative Geordie - he was fond of an argument, but if you pointed out errors in his argument, he'd just say "Ah, you're not wrong there." And that was that! I was tremendously impressed. Up until that point everyone I had ever met would continue to defend an increasingly obviously wrong point indefinitely, looking dafter and dafter, rather than admit they were wrong. I'm fairly sure I did the same. I don't think it occurred to me not to. The shame of admitting you were wrong was perceived as greater than the shame and inconvenience of defending an increasingly indefensible point.
    One of my daughters learned this lesson by the age of 6. I'm not sure the other two have yet.
    Nice post.

    You'll never make a politician; fortunately for you, sadly for the rest of us.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067
    edited July 2022

    Erdogan leaves Putin waiting, and he doesn’t look happy about it:

    https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1549472588035932160

    Turning the tables on him. I read once Putin is often very late for things, as a tactic.

    (As I read something I can now only vaguely recall, on the internet, I of course not commit it to memory as a fact).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227

    Think that could be right. Rishi at least looks like a serious option, and would be a decent PM. Enough to remain competitive, and lose not too badly. Truss could easily preside over an utter car-crash - impossible to imagine her leading an election campaign - would make Starmer look like Barack Obama.

    The one who could take the fight to Labour is, of course, Penny, but she would be a risk. That's why she needs to be able to compete with Rishi for the crown, so we can assess her mettle under pressure. But, unfortunately, too many of the MPs are factionalists who cannot see beyond the end of their noses.
    Good point regarding Penny. This is testing for her. If she can't hack it, unfair as it is, probably best for her (and us) that she doesn't get the job - she'll get much worse once in position.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    The Old Town of Edinburgh is some distance from the Water of Leith - which as its name suggests properly belongs as a river to Leith rather than Edinburgh. If there was a way of calculating a city to river ratio (population divided by flow rate?) I think Edinburgh would be pretty high up the charts.
    The OP did say England. Else I'd have suggested it too - not least because Leith was a separate city till a century or so ago (the W of L does go through the Newer Bits of the New Town but only as a glorified piddle).

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,570

    Technically, it might be Portsmouth, though not in a satisfactory way.

    Much the same might be said of the ambitions of one of Portsmouth's MPs.
    I'd always assumed that Portsmouth was at the mouth of the River Port.

    Is this not so?
  • Andy_JS said:

    The tradition of prime ministers being known by their second name would continue with Liz Truss. Her first name is Mary.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liz_Truss

    Its amusing how many that is true with. Especially with the name James.

    James Callaghan was actually Leonard

    While Gordon Brown, Harold Wilson and Ramsay MacDonald were all actually James.

    I may have forgotten one there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221

    Do we have to put up with this from you for the next 50 years?

    Hopefully death will intervene.
    Makes a change from aliens and Dall-E.

    It is almost child like his wonder and gullibility, I reckon most PBers could convince Leon that we've stolen his nose.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    Cookie said:

    The first and best lesson I learned at university was how to climb down from an argument.
    I met a highly competitive and argumentative Geordie - he was fond of an argument, but if you pointed out errors in his argument, he'd just say "Ah, you're not wrong there." And that was that! I was tremendously impressed. Up until that point everyone I had ever met would continue to defend an increasingly obviously wrong point indefinitely, looking dafter and dafter, rather than admit they were wrong. I'm fairly sure I did the same. I don't think it occurred to me not to. The shame of admitting you were wrong was perceived as greater than the shame and inconvenience of defending an increasingly indefensible point.
    One of my daughters learned this lesson by the age of 6. I'm not sure the other two have yet.
    The hardest thing of all is to admit defeat in an argument to someone you really dislike, or to someone you perceive as an ideological enemy, political opponent, and so on

    That takes true maturity and grace

    On PB when I find myself acting like @BartholomewRoberts and @HYUFD - defending an argument I know, deep down, is wrong - it is usually against someone I am allergic to, for whatever reason

    And by the way I believe @BartholomewRoberts and @HYUFD are valed members of Team PB - but they do share this dogged attitude to the losing of arguments
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,927
    ydoethur said:

    Birmingham actually has three rivers - the Cole, the Rea and the Tame - although as you note none are very large at the time they flow through it.

    I know next to nothing about Bradford, so I'll take your word for it.
    Coleshill and Tamworth.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    Carnyx said:

    They must be, almost by definition, but also limited in their own turn. Or there would be about 200x as many, as they have been messing around for almost two centuries. Don't know enough about them to say more about between-species interactions.

    https://www.newscientist.com/definition/ring-necked-parakeet/
    'Second Sleep' by Robert Harris is, imo, his poorest novel, but a startling turn hinges on the mention of parakeets.

    Just though I'd mention it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Do we have to put up with this from you for the next 50 years?

    Hopefully death will intervene.
    It's stopped raining, now
  • Andy_JS said:

    That wasn't in the forecast as far as I know.
    A bit of the rain all over the country would be welcome, for a lot of people. Such a feeling of relief here.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally there was a conversation upthread I was tagged in about teacher pay and pupil funding. In a sense, everyone missed the key questions;

    1) It's not what is offered, it's what is funded (ISTR @Foxy picked up on this for junior and senior doctors, although he noted the latter got a big cut in real terms). So far the government has intimated it will fund the stinking rise for NQTs (or ECTs as they are now called) and not for those who have been in the profession more than three years. I have not seen anything to suggest that will change. Which means the latter are most unlikely to see anything at all. This at a time when workload is being dramatically and irresponsibly increased.

    2) By closing the gap between new and more experienced teachers in this way, the government has ensured there will be progressively less financial reason to stay in the profession as the years roll by. In a sector where 40% of staff quit in the first five years, is that really the message we want to send out?

    So it's actually considerably more stupid than it looks, which even by the low standards of the DfE is quite astonishing.

    It's the standard approach of announce a tiny increase in the overall budget while leaving the school to manage the mess that it creates.

    A 2% increase is an 8% decrease in real terms and given that everything that isn't salary will be going up 10%+ there is going to be little money left to pay the NQTs their pay rise let alone anyone else.

    Expect serious budget issues to appear December to February next year and large staff "restructuring" projects (serious redundancies) from March onwards. By September next year most schools will need to have lost 10% of their staff (probably teachers) because the budget rules won't allow them to do anything else.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    nico679 said:

    According to that political sage Beth Rigby there was skulduggery going on .

    In which Sunak voters lent votes to Truss to knockout Badenoch and those votes next time will go to Mordaunt .

    Quite how she comes to this conclusion is beyond me given Sunak isn’t so far clear that his voters could afford to do this . That it could have backfired if he then went down in total votes leading to headlines of lost momentum .

    And how do they know in the final round how many Badenoch votes will go to each candidate .

    It would more sense for Sunak to donate votes only for them all to vote for him in the final round so it doesn’t give the impression of limping over the line. You can be to clever at this game - the leads implied by the member polls are not remotely insurmountable.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870

    A bit of the rain all over the country would be welcome, for a lot of people. Such a feeling of relief here.
    My hydrangeas would be very grateful. As would my water butts, which are down to around 35% capacity.

    As would the humans...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    alex_ said:

    As a general rule, high temperatures are more bearable in much of the world than in U.K. due to humidity levels. And that’s before you take into account lack of air conditioning.

    East Asia says hi.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    alex_ said:

    It would more sense for Sunak to donate votes only for them all to vote for him in the final round so it doesn’t give the impression of limping over the line. You can be to clever at this game - the leads implied by the member polls are not remotely insurmountable.

    +1 - in this round Sunak could lose 30 votes and it wouldn't have impacted him getting into the final 3. But you really want to be going into the member's vote with a minimum of 50% of MP votes.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    I'd always assumed that Portsmouth was at the mouth of the River Port.

    Is this not so?
    No. The mouth refers to the strait between Fort Blockhouse and Portsea. POrt is from the old Roman Portus = harbour hence Portchester Castle in the upper part of the harbour - Roman fort re-upped as mediaeval fortress and Napoleonic Wars PoW camp.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,755

    The Old Town of Edinburgh is some distance from the Water of Leith - which as its name suggests properly belongs as a river to Leith rather than Edinburgh. If there was a way of calculating a city to river ratio (population divided by flow rate?) I think Edinburgh would be pretty high up the charts.
    Has the Union Canal running up to the edge of the old town though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    Its amusing how many that is true with. Especially with the name James.

    James Callaghan was actually Leonard

    While Gordon Brown, Harold Wilson and Ramsay MacDonald were all actually James.

    I may have forgotten one there.
    Good pub quiz question.

    Easy to do, since we don't even know the names of many of our PMs since we remember them by title. I mean, Augustus Fitzroy? Spencer Wentworth-Pelham? William Henry Cavendish Cavendish-Bentinck?

    Ok, the second one there is made up, but how many would know that without looking it up? (not me)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    Remarkably midnight is predicted to be warmer here than any time in the next seven days.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,927
    nico679 said:

    According to that political sage Beth Rigby there was skulduggery going on .

    In which Sunak voters lent votes to Truss to knockout Badenoch and those votes next time will go to Mordaunt .

    Quite how she comes to this conclusion is beyond me given Sunak isn’t so far clear that his voters could afford to do this . That it could have backfired if he then went down in total votes leading to headlines of lost momentum .

    And how do they know in the final round how many Badenoch votes will go to each candidate .

    Maybe you're underestimating the genius that is Gavin Williamson.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716
    edited July 2022
    kle4 said:

    Turning the tables on him. I read once Putin is often very late for things, as a tactic.

    (As I read something I can now only vaguely recall, on the internet, I of course not commit it to memory as a fact).
    Brilliant!! Two arsey c*nts agree to meet up. Look what happens.

    Lot of very odd tics across Vlad 'nothing wrong with my health' Putin's mouth and face there as well I note.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,153
    kle4 said:

    Turning the tables on him. I read once Putin is often very late for things, as a tactic.

    (As I read something I can now only vaguely recall, on the internet, I of course not commit it to memory as a fact).
    Didn't he come to a meeting with Angela Merkel with a dog, knowing that she was afraid of them?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001

    I'd always assumed that Portsmouth was at the mouth of the River Port.

    Is this not so?
    The Port passes to the left so whilst not running through it as such it observes the rules of etiquette.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,927

    A bit of the rain all over the country would be welcome, for a lot of people. Such a feeling of relief here.
    We could do with some in the Midlands.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,219
    alex_ said:

    Part of the problem isn’t necessarily the members per se but that the MPs spend more time determine their voting on who will play best or worst with the members (or will do very well but needs to be kept out) than will actually be best at the job. And there is also the fundamental problem with the system that you only need a third (max) of the MPs supporting you to have a shot at being leader but (in theory) a third is nowhere near enough to avoid being kicked out on a confidence motion - essentially IDS problem.

    An MP who has never been required to cast a vote for you as the best leader, is going to have no problem with voting against you in a confidence motion at the first sign of trouble. So it makes the leadership unstable from the start.
    It would be better if MPs were given a list of all the candidates and asked which they would support for the leadership - and they could vote for as many candidates as they wanted.

    Any that get over 50% of votes go to the membership.

    If nobody gets 50% keep re-running the vote until they do.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716
    Tomorrow's temp will be much lower but the humidity will be much higher it seems

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Tres said:

    Has the Union Canal running up to the edge of the old town though.
    Not quite: it extended a bit further to a canal basin off Lothian Road than it does today, but that didn't even get into the extramural settlement of West Port.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    eek said:

    It's the standard approach of announce a tiny increase in the overall budget while leaving the school to manage the mess that it creates.

    A 2% increase is an 8% decrease in real terms and given that everything that isn't salary will be going up 10%+ there is going to be little money left to pay the NQTs their pay rise let alone anyone else.

    Expect serious budget issues to appear December to February next year and large staff "restructuring" projects (serious redundancies) from March onwards. By September next year most schools will need to have lost 10% of their staff (probably teachers) because the budget rules won't allow them to do anything else.
    Also can I point out that a funding announcement on the 3 days before the end of the summer term when school budgets run September to September leaves schools with little choice next year but to prepare for the worst.... Which means that if you don't want to see 10% (or more) staff cuts next year the Government will need to sort out 2023/24 pupil financing in February / March not in late July.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,153
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    The hardest thing of all is to admit defeat in an argument to someone you really dislike, or to someone you perceive as an ideological enemy, political opponent, and so on

    That takes true maturity and grace

    On PB when I find myself acting like @BartholomewRoberts and @HYUFD - defending an argument I know, deep down, is wrong - it is usually against someone I am allergic to, for whatever reason

    And by the way I believe @BartholomewRoberts and @HYUFD are valed members of Team PB - but they do share this dogged attitude to the losing of arguments
    Just the other day I put my hands up and admitted I was wrong, on a "woke" issue I could have dug in on, I instead said fair enough I was wrong and move on. I've often admitted I'm wrong, if I believe I am.

    The problem here is I don't believe I am today. I'm not digging in despite knowing I'm wrong, I'm digging in because I know I'm right.

    Today's weather in the UK was for almost all of England at almost all the time in the mid to high 30s not the mid to high 40s. It was glorious weather. It very briefly peaked above 40, but that was it, a very brief foray into the 40s and back down into the 30s.

    People flock to the Aussie sunshine for such weather every Aussie summer/British winter. And in today's weather people would flock to the beaches, or pools, or barbecues - not bitch and moan and cry like a baby.

    I'm sorry if you don't like today's weather, but I love it and wish we had it more often. Hopefully with climate change we will have weather like today in the mid to high 30s more often in the summer. 👍

    Oh PS and the weather overnight is cooling too which makes the weather more pleasant too. Its presently 23C and falling where I am, most other people have said similar. What's really unpleasant is when overnight temperatures remain in the 30s because then there's no respite from the heat, but we aren't having that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    Carnyx said:

    No. The mouth refers to the strait between Fort Blockhouse and Portsea. POrt is from the old Roman Portus = harbour hence Portchester Castle in the upper part of the harbour - Roman fort re-upped as mediaeval fortress and Napoleonic Wars PoW camp.
    Portchester Castle is one of the unsung gems of the UK. An almost perfectly preserved Roman coastal fort, in the rather humdrum burbs of Portsmouth, with OOODLES of history and a medieval church embedded in it, like a English Civil War bullet lodged in an oaken monastery door
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,227
    CatMan said:

    Didn't he come to a meeting with Angela Merkel with a dog, knowing that she was afraid of them?
    Talk about putting the Dog in Erdogan.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    Leon said:

    It's stopped raining, now
    We have had phantom rain. That is, it rained, I could feel it, you could see the spots on the ground, but they evaporated before ever properly wetting the ground. Weatherstaion registered 0.0mm. Zilch, nada, diddly-squat.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,716
    CatMan said:

    Didn't he come to a meeting with Angela Merkel with a dog, knowing that she was afraid of them?
    You can take the man out of the KGB's Room 101, but you can't take Room 101 out of the man.

    I wonder if US intelligence knows his deepest, darkest fear?

    Buttons?

    Lightening?

    Cabbage Patch dolls?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,927

    Tomorrow's temp will be much lower but the humidity will be much higher it seems

    I'll take an 18 degree drop in temperature, even if it is more humid.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,269
    Carnyx said:

    Of course, London is out on the fringes of the UK anyway. Crap position for a capital of England, never mind the UK.
    London is ideally located. It faces and controls access to the Continent, where external trade opportunities lie. It is on one of the two longest rivers in the UK (the other one faces the wrong way for continental trade). Specifically it is built at the first easy crossing point on the river, allowing it to operate as a port while controlling North-South trade across the river. It is surrounded by the UK's best arable land. It has one of the best climates in the UK. It offers access down to the West Country as well as up to the Midlands and the North. It is really the obvious place to put the capital. The Romans weren't daft.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,290
    nico679 said:

    Liz Truss failed to support the judiciary after the disgusting attacks on them by the cesspit right wing press…

    On that score, this is the first time I’ve seen her look animated in a while.

    https://twitter.com/SarahForshaw1/status/1549148457948119042
    Johnson (attempting some absurd Churchillian delivery) “with iron determination we saw off Brenda Hale”. Baroness Hale: a member of our independent Supreme Court judiciary. I have no words.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870
    edited July 2022
    kle4 said:

    Good pub quiz question.

    Easy to do, since we don't even know the names of many of our PMs since we remember them by title. I mean, Augustus Fitzroy? Spencer Wentworth-Pelham? William Henry Cavendish Cavendish-Bentinck?

    Ok, the second one there is made up, but how many would know that without looking it up? (not me)
    Robert Arthur Talbot Gascoyne-Cecil.
    Henry William Lamb (usually called William).
    William Cavendish-Bentinck
    Robert Banks Jenkinson
    Edward Smith Stanley
    Henry John Temple
    Archibald Primrose
    We could go on...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    edited July 2022
    This Thread has fallen off its perch
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Just the other day I put my hands up and admitted I was wrong, on a "woke" issue I could have dug in on, I instead said fair enough I was wrong and move on. I've often admitted I'm wrong, if I believe I am.

    The problem here is I don't believe I am today. I'm not digging in despite knowing I'm wrong, I'm digging in because I know I'm right.

    Today's weather in the UK was for almost all of England in the mid to high 30s not the mid to high 40s. It was glorious weather. It very briefly peaked above 40, but that was it, a very brief foray into the 40s and back down into the 30s.

    People flock to the Aussie sunshine for such weather every Aussie summer/British winter. And in today's weather people would flock to the beaches, or pools, or barbecues - not bitch and moan and cry like a baby.

    I'm sorry if you don't like today's weather, but I love it and wish we had it more often. Hopefully with climate change we will have weather like today in the mid to high 30s more often in the summer. 👍

    Oh PS and the weather overnight is cooling too which makes the weather more pleasant too. Its presently 23C and falling where I am, most other people have said similar. What's really unpleasant is when overnight temperatures remain in the 30s because then there's no respite from the heat, but we aren't having that.
    But you said Don't go to Death Valley, like it was a barbie n chilling place. It is not.

    And Australian heatwaves are devastating, people die in them. How hard is that to understand, and why do your happy childhood memories make it not true?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    Think that could be right. Rishi at least looks like a serious option, and would be a decent PM. Enough to remain competitive, and lose not too badly. Truss could easily preside over an utter car-crash - impossible to imagine her leading an election campaign - would make Starmer look like Barack Obama.

    The one who could take the fight to Labour is, of course, Penny, but she would be a risk. That's why she needs to be able to compete with Rishi for the crown, so we can assess her mettle under pressure. But, unfortunately, too many of the MPs are factionalists who cannot see beyond the end of their noses.
    I am right. This is no time for the Tory party to write off the next general election by getting all introspective and factional - they are electing a prime minister for this country for next two years! A bad record over these two years can be remembered by the voters for a long time.

    Hollow vessel non Conservative Liberterian careerist brown noser Boris, Mogg n Nad loyalist abysmal communicator with downright insane tax cut and borrowing economic solutions is not what will make Conservatives competitive over the next few years.

    And, look how far Labour are behind on seats. If they need Lib Dem support to govern in next parliament, what sort of democracy and country changing agreements will Lab Lib pact hatch up to stay in power. And still there are Tory posters on here thinking it’s a cool time to play fantasy politics not treating it seriously!

    Anyway, I’m off to bed early considering my other half is back home from team building away days.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 255
    Leon said:

    Yes, they used to be these special, magical fragments of the tropics. Now they are so common they border on annoying, especially as they are so loud

    The rhododendrons of birds

    However I do love the urban myths that surround them, especially the idea they all come from a breeding pair accidentally released by Jimi Hendrix from his Mayfair apartment in the 1960s
    They used to be very shy in my part of North West london, but not anymore
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Leon said:

    Portchester Castle is one of the unsung gems of the UK. An almost perfectly preserved Roman coastal fort, in the rather humdrum burbs of Portsmouth, with OOODLES of history and a medieval church embedded in it, like a English Civil War bullet lodged in an oaken monastery door
    It is indeed. Takign Mrs C to see it is very much on the bucket list. With a classic Norman keep added. Aaand - possibly - with James Lind MD, the inventor of controlled clinical trials in medicine (VitC and lemon, anyone?), buried in the kirk. The view from the walk around the walls over the waters of Portsmouth Harbour ...

    https://www.jameslindlibrary.org/articles/the-strange-disappearances-of-james-lind/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221

    NEW THREAD

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    London is ideally located. It faces and controls access to the Continent, where external trade opportunities lie. It is on one of the two longest rivers in the UK (the other one faces the wrong way for continental trade). Specifically it is built at the first easy crossing point on the river, allowing it to operate as a port while controlling North-South trade across the river. It is surrounded by the UK's best arable land. It has one of the best climates in the UK. It offers access down to the West Country as well as up to the Midlands and the North. It is really the obvious place to put the capital. The Romans weren't daft.
    "best climates"
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    NEW THREAD

    Ok, no need to shout!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    boulay said:

    The Port passes to the left so whilst not running through it as such it observes the rules of etiquette.

    Thge port passes to port - unless in a shipping channel, when it is starboard to starboard ...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,927
    Nigel Farage on GB News: Tories heading for a catastrophic loss at the next GE.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870
    Andy_JS said:

    Nigel Farage on GB News: Tories heading for a catastrophic loss at the next GE.

    Nigel Farage - the only person left who might make me vote Tory.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,269
    Carnyx said:

    "best climates"
    Well not today obvs. 😂
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,457
    Andy_JS said:

    We could do with some in the Midlands.
    Raining in Leicester now.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    ydoethur said:

    Birmingham actually has three rivers - the Cole, the Rea and the Tame - although as you note none are very large at the time they flow through it.

    I know next to nothing about Bradford, so I'll take your word for it.
    Brighton and Hove has no river, just the sea. Around 300k population.
This discussion has been closed.