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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The indyref results thread – As YouGov have a poll out

SystemSystem Posts: 11,769
edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The indyref results thread – As YouGov have a poll out

The YouGov poll isn’t an exit poll, but I post it here for the sake of completeness. 2,000 Scots were contacted by YouGov after they had been to the polling stations.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,168
    First?
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    Night everyone. Will see the results in the morning :)
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Go go Darling!
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Damn you RobD :-)
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    FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    nice tactic by YouGov. Loads of coverage.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,121
    Peter Kellner on Sky News
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,740
    Ready to see more waffling than a breakfast party in Belgium?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,168
    Tim_B said:

    Damn you RobD :-)

    Muhahaha!
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2014
    Hmph. This feels like it's shaping up to be one big anti-climax. (Not even ashamed at the fact I was hoping for a great night's entertainment even over the future of the nation.)
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,919
    Hopefully it settles my nerves enough to be able to sleep until the actual results come in, whatever they are, even as false reassurance.

    (Hopefully) Good night all.
  • Options
    Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    FPT
    HYUFD said:

    Paul Too early to declare anything yet, but if that is the result he can certainly claim much of the credit

    But not as much credit as Malcolm can claim if there is a stonking NO victory :-)
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    Kellner calls it for No, all over folks.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,086
    After DavidL's posts in previous threads it's surprising that Sky is reporting a 90% turnout in Dundee.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,121
    Peter Kellner says No voters more determined to vote than Yes voters according to their poll
  • Options
    HughHugh Posts: 955
    Gordon Brown saved the Union.

    Have some of that, Chinless.
  • Options
    EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 351
    It's goodnight Irene, no free Unicorns.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,168
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter Kellner says No voters more determined to vote than Yes voters according to their poll

    So much for the missing million.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,121
    Peter Kellner says its 99% certain than No have won.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter Kellner on Sky News

    Repeating his 99% certainty claim.
  • Options
    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    It woz Gord wot won it!
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Still going for 60 - 40 +/-3 for no. Probably nearer 57 than 60.
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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Kellner predicts it's a NO
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,168
    Hugh said:

    Gordon Brown saved the Union.

    Have some of that, Chinless.

    His speech yesterday was v. good. Hopefully he stands for the Scottish Parliament to challenge the SNP.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,740
    Hugh said:

    Gordon Brown saved the Union.

    Have some of that, Chinless.

    Well at least he was good for something, then.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,121
    steve hawkes ‏@steve_hawkes 14s

    YouGov's Peter Kellner says "I can't see No losing this now. At the risk of looking a complete prat it's a 99% certainty."
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2014
    The silent majority emerges victorious.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,833
    Hugh said:

    Gordon Brown saved the Union.

    Have some of that, Chinless.

    If Darling and Alexander hadn't made such a hash of the No campaign, there wouldn't have been any need for intervention.

    Labour campaigning failure - go on, admit it!
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,086
    If it's No it's Brown's triumph.
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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Hugh said:

    Gordon Brown saved the Union.

    Have some of that, Chinless.

    He ended boom and bust as well. I suspect this will last as long as that did.....
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2014
    I'd love to see Kelners face if YES do make it. He'll never live it down.
    He's probably making bets on YES even as we write.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,740
    Oh god, the cr*p graphics are already coming out on BBC1
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Signing in....
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sorry to sign off until the morning but I'm beyond knackered.

    Hope you all made plenty of cash through McARSE .... so to the future and remember ....

    Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,919
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    steve hawkes ‏@steve_hawkes 14s

    YouGov's Peter Kellner says "I can't see No losing this now. At the risk of looking a complete prat it's a 99% certainty."

    Fair play to him for putting his neck out there with such a rock solid prediction.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Looks as if Salmond thought that giving 16-17 year olds the vote in a referendum was a good idea. Bet he's feeling gutted.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited September 2014
    Saint Gordon, saving the world/country over and over again.
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    Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    oxfordsimon said:

    Hugh said:

    Gordon Brown saved the Union.

    Have some of that, Chinless.

    If Darling and Alexander hadn't made such a hash of the No campaign, there wouldn't have been any need for intervention.

    Labour campaigning failure - go on, admit it!
    True, but I'm quite glad as stuffing gold in their mouths (copyright Nye Bevan) with the last minute devomax offer has given Mr Farage an enormous stick to beat both Tories and Labour with.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    SouthamObserver said:

    If it's No it's Brown's triumph.

    Why? It was always going to be a no,
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,919
    This cannot be true, can it?

    NPR International Correspondent Ari Shapiro: My fav fun fact about #Scotland #Indyref: The final result that the counting officer reads is legally binding, EVEN IF SHE GETS IT WRONG.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited September 2014
    Barnstormer - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J39bBV7CBJk
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,135
    RUMOURS of postal votes in the Edinburgh West area being:
    YES - 23%
    NO - 77%
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Hugh said:

    Gordon Brown saved the Union.

    Have some of that, Chinless.

    So we have had Cameron the PM who lost the union ,so if it's no - Cameron the PM who saved the union.

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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,740
    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Hugh said:

    Gordon Brown saved the Union.

    Have some of that, Chinless.

    If Darling and Alexander hadn't made such a hash of the No campaign, there wouldn't have been any need for intervention.

    Labour campaigning failure - go on, admit it!
    True, but I'm quite glad as stuffing gold in their mouths (copyright Nye Bevan) with the last minute devomax offer has given Mr Farage an enormous stick to beat both Tories and Labour with.
    I wait with interest to see what Cameron is going to apparently say tomorrow re the new British political settlement if no wins....

    ..if it doesn't mention any kind of English settlement Farage will literally be grinning ear to ear.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    compouter2 said:

    Barnstormer - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J39bBV7CBJk

    I'm not clicking - I did watch though - Communists for No!!!!!!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,168
    compouter2 said:

    Barnstormer - www.youtube.com/watch?v=J39bBV7CBJk

    Yep!
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    mjtmjt Posts: 33
    Damp. Squib.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The tension and fizz has already disappeared from the evening following Kellner's call.
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    Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    SouthamObserver said:

    If it's No it's Brown's triumph.

    Undoubtably, that speeche he made was one of the great political speeches that will be recalled for many years.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    JackW said:

    Sorry to sign off until the morning but I'm beyond knackered.

    Hope you all made plenty of cash through McARSE .... so to the future and remember ....

    Ed Miliband Will Never be Prime Minister

    Jack W is always right!

    Jack W + Ave it = the Unionist coalition!!
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    TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    Fecking cowardly Scots, too frit to reach out for glory. Devomax it is, then, with the political fallout that entails.
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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Hmmm was it one or two polls that have made it a 'triumph for Brown. Labour can be so absurd some times
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    So Gord's job is done, can we "excommunicate" him so to speak and make him Governor of something we still have in the Empire that's at least 8000 miles away?
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited September 2014
    SouthamObserver said:

    If it's No it's Brown's triumph.

    Yes let's not be churlish. I loathe the man with a passion and believe he was utterly destructive 1997-2010 but, let's be honest he gave a fantastic speech yesterday and it could only be a plus for No. He clearly connects with Scotland in a way that eludes middle England ( and me) totally. But fair do's credit where it's due.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Ebenwolfe ‏@Ebenwolfe 1m
    I thought the referendum vote would be an end but Jeremy Vine just demonstrated that Scotland issues are like Herpes & never clear up.

    Made me laugh.
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    John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    According to the Guardian, those "Yes ratings" were compiled by Credit Suisse. The figure of 2 for the Western Isles is very low. Paddy Power are quoting that region as the 4th (5th?) most likely to return the biggest % for Yes. (Which they won't. My local info is that No will win there, but I won't be surprised if Yes do better there than in several other regions.)
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Brown's triumph?!? How many times have we heard that silliness?

    The outcome of a NO is that Cameron has allowed a referendum - and won. He's the great democrat. EU next.

    And, the Barnett formula and EV4EL have to be dealt with and changed, even with a Tory minority government.

    An absolute master class in tactics.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,121
    Remember Sir Bob Worcestor in 2004 and his President Kerry call
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The Boundary commission will have to increase Scottish seats as the number of Scottish electors have gone up. 2018 - can't wait !
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Gordon Brown has saved the Union.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,082
    Looking good for 'No', which is a massive relief, but i've lost on the betting. Oh well, there is always the next by-election.
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    JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    TwistedFireStopper said:

    Fecking cowardly Scots, too frit to reach out for glory. Devomax it is, then, with the political fallout that entails.

    Yup - a bit 90s though - fits your style.

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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,356
    Isn't it crazy that nobody watching BBC1 has a clue that it's 90%+ certain that No has won.

    Just endless general waffle.
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    mjtmjt Posts: 33
    Cameron wants to emphasise quickly and hard that Labour (Brown) jumped the gun with the promises of jam today.

    The row will start before breakfast tommorrow.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    IOS said:

    Gordon Brown has saved the Union.

    No doubt about it.

    In 2009 he saved the world. Now the United Kingdom.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,542
    It's all over: Microsoft's bing called it for No:

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/09/17/scotland_independence_referendum_bing_prediction/

    As an aside, someone the other night mentioned Facebook and voting. I couldn't answer at the time as I was out enjoying myself (and was hoping Mrs J wouldn't notice me sneakily reading PB), but there was a study done into Facebook's effect on the 2012 presidential election:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/13/us/politics/social-networks-affect-voter-turnout-study-finds.html?_r=0
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,086
    mjt said:

    Damp. Squib.

    No way. If No has won it is one of the happiest days of my life, even though it will have cost me a packet.

    Blimey, I'm feeling quite emotional.

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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,135
    Crook (Durham) by-election:
    Labour HOLD.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    surbiton said:

    The Boundary commission will have to increase Scottish seats as the number of Scottish electors have gone up. 2018 - can't wait !

    Likely to merely correct the anti Tory imbalance really.
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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    Congratulations to the Scots on caring about their country to the extent that just about all of them turned up to vote. And let's hope the experience of 16 and 17 year olds voting without the sky falling in helps speed up the lowering of the voting age generally.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    I'd advise everyone to wait for at least one result!!
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Gordo's Revenge

    Promising a load of power to Scots like himself at the expense of the English who booted him out of office
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    SouthamObserver said:

    mjt said:

    Damp. Squib.

    No way. If No has won it is one of the happiest days of my life, even though it will have cost me a packet.

    Blimey, I'm feeling quite emotional.

    SO, you won it. I love you.
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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    mjt said:

    Cameron wants to emphasise quickly and hard that Labour (Brown) jumped the gun with the promises of jam today.

    The row will start before breakfast tommorrow.

    Then why did Downing Street endorse them (the morons)?
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,954
    "YouGov predicts that No has won Scotland’s referendum with 54% of the vote

    YouGov bases its prediction on the responses of 1,828 people after they voted today, together with those of 800 people who had already voted by post."

    Haven't they over-sampled postal voters?


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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    However much Gordon Brown got wrong.

    He saved the Pound from the Euro. He saved the Union from breaking up.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,082
    SouthamObserver said:

    mjt said:

    Damp. Squib.

    No way. If No has won it is one of the happiest days of my life, even though it will have cost me a packet.

    Blimey, I'm feeling quite emotional.

    Well said.
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    HughHugh Posts: 955
    Erm I don't think we should be "calling" the whole thing just yet, based on almost no evidence!

    Furthermore, there is some breaking news that is great for YES - Dan Hodges has just called it for NO.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    And everyone can call andy murray a * now he said 'yes'!

    Ooops sorry no change there then! :)
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,356
    surbiton said:

    The Boundary commission will have to increase Scottish seats as the number of Scottish electors have gone up. 2018 - can't wait !

    But Scotland would have lost proportionately more than England if the 2013 review had gone through.

    So this will bring it back roughly into line.

    Also note that it will rely on everyone still being on the register at end of 2015.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,740
    RodCrosby said:

    I'd advise everyone to wait for at least one result!!

    Yes, I do agree.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    IOS said:

    Gordon Brown has saved the Union.

    I think that you mean Dave Cameron, who has played a blinder.


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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Put it another way:

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 19m
    Latest from TwitterHQ re #indyref. In past 48 hrs, 378k mentions of 'Yes' campaign hashtags + 138k mentions of 'No' hashtags
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,690
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember Sir Bob Worcestor in 2004 and his President Kerry call

    I think we can already say that this will be a terrible night for the Conservatives.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,135
    Crook (Durham):
    Labour GAIN from Independent
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    HughHugh Posts: 955
    RodCrosby said:

    I'd advise everyone to wait for at least one result!!

    Lol not often I agree with you Rod!
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    IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    MikeK

    The most important lesson of tonight if No wins. Tweets mean F£ck All!!
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,135
    Abergele Pensarn (Conwy):
    Labour HOLD.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BBC doing all they can to avoid mentioning the YouGov poll.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Betting markets gone nutz
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,168
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember Sir Bob Worcestor in 2004 and his President Kerry call

    I think we can already say that this will be a terrible night for the Conservatives.
    titter
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,086
    James Kelly seems to be hinting No has won.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Hugh said:

    Erm I don't think we should be "calling" the whole thing just yet, based on almost no evidence!

    Furthermore, there is some breaking news that is great for YES - Dan Hodges has just called it for NO.

    Tim, how are you calling it then. Don't you agree with Dan?
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Cameron better have a good deal for the English.
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    mjtmjt Posts: 33
    Yes has stabilised at 15s on BF although that could well be punters 'greening' up their books rather than enthusiasm for the price in value terms.
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    NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    kle4 said:

    This cannot be true, can it?

    NPR International Correspondent Ari Shapiro: My fav fun fact about #Scotland #Indyref: The final result that the counting officer reads is legally binding, EVEN IF SHE GETS IT WRONG.

    If you are SeanT, do NOT read this post.

    I was on a jury last year and the foreman read out the wrong guilty/not guilty verdicts for defendants.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    YES coming back in...
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Might have a tickle @ 20s -lol
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    IOS said:

    However much Gordon Brown got wrong.

    He saved the Pound from the Euro. He saved the Union from breaking up.

    He led Labour to its 2nd worst General Election defeat.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,375
    compouter2 said:

    Barnstormer - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J39bBV7CBJk

    I actually wept when I saw that last night. And this from someone whose first post on PB.com was to slag the man off mercilessly. If the result is No then I'm prepared to forget about the gold sell-off thing.
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    mjtmjt Posts: 33
    Whoa...smashed in to 11-1 in the blink of an eye.

    Something just released?
This discussion has been closed.