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Rishi is clear favourite after a morning of campaign launches – politicalbetting.com

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    The Saj is a lovely guy, a hard worker and a competent administrator but doesn't exactly.. inspire.

    This happened last time too but just a bit later. His colleagues avoided wasting his time.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Looking at it again, it looks like your reply was OT'd. if it was I apologise and withdraw my slur....
    Yep, that was one of my comments. Which I couldn't have marked as OT!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    Nigelb said:

    What would be the cost of means testing the benefit ?
    I can't imagine it would be that difficult to only pay it to those on Pension Credit. It's paid by DWP who already do some automated cross-checking with benefits to determine the payment amount.

    One unintended consequence of removing it from wealthier beneficiaries would be to pull finding from a number of the regional Surviving Winter charities, e.g.

    https://www.dorsetcommunityfoundation.org/appeals/surviving-winter/
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Nigelb said:

    Agreed.
    Tories are relying on highly dubious procedural pettifogging to obscure the reality.

    Still, it worked to convince (for example) @Big_G_NorthWales , so I suppose it served its point.
    Yes the necessary pearls have been clutched in North Wales, job done.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited July 2022
    Nigelb said:

    So it would be paid only to those who qualify for Means Tested Pension Credit ?

    That would certainly make sense, but I don't expect that would be very popular at all. Anything else would be rather more costly to administer. Do you know how much ?
    She said that many of her constituents had complained that they don’t need this payment, and she’d look at if there was a way to easily means-test such payments.

    That said, this winter could be horrific for energy bills.

    My parents, who use it to book flight to come and see me for a few weeks somewhere warm, don’t need it this year or any year.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,428
    eek said:

    Problem with means tested pension credit is that an awful lot of people who should claim it don't, In fact the most common time for people to start claiming it, is (from memory) after someone is checked for social care needs (so aged 75+)

    That's why I suggested a while back that it makes sense to significantly increase the State Pension to remove the need for means testing while introducing NI at the same time.
    I have a teaching pension which automatically doesn't get NI'd. As I am not 66 yet, I would be quite happy to pay NI on it, that's up to them to do though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,273
    edited July 2022

    Mixed messaging alert.

    Labour: we will do no deals with the SNP, if Scots want to get rid of the Tories they must vote Labour.

    Also Labour: we are so definite about no deals with the SNP that we’ve suspended two councillors for refusing to support a deal with the Tories!

    https://twitter.com/fr4ser/status/1546848092582023170?s=21&t=OoKkiwiSuswrucLvTD-1_Q

    Whit an eejit.

    I feel like she made that point a little more emphatically than the party may have intended to be broadcast.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,405
    The Tories are clearly racist, the Muslim heritage people have been barred from standing in the leadership contest.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Sandpit said:

    8 nominations were received, each nomination form contained 20 signatures. The nominator and seconder for each candidate were read out.
    Thanks for the clarification.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    Leon said:

    This IS quite exciting, in a Wankr kind of way

    How many will make it through tomorrow? 5?

    I wouldn't even put Rehman Chisti on Wankr.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    jonny83 said:

    Oh to be a fly on the wall if it comes down to Mordaunt and Truss having to decide which one of them should drop out in order to stop Sunak.

    In 1932 Democratic National Convention (last one operating under 2/3 requirement for nomination) that is the choice that faced Franklin Roosevelt's two leading opponents: Al Smith (1928 Dem nominee) and John Nance Garner (Speaker of US House).

    Until key backers for Garner (namely media mogul William Randolph Hurst who controlled California delegation, and Texas delegation led by Congressman Sam Rayburn) cut a deal with FDR that gave him the nomination with JNG as his VP running mate.

    Incidentally, the leader of the CA delegation, who announced the switch in support from Garner to Roosevelt, was US Senator William Gibbs McAdoo, who had been Al Smith's bitter rival (all the way through 104 ballots) for 1924 Democratic nomination. Who clearly enjoyed stabbing Smith in the front - then twisting the knife.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,510
    Sandpit said:

    She said that many of her constituents had complained that they don’t need this payment, and she’d look at if there ways to easily means-test such payments.
    Which shows how little she knows about the real world - nothing is easy which is why you see departments using this data set as it's a decent proxy for what we really want.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,842
    kle4 said:

    Javid paying the price for quitting Cabinet twice perhaps.

    The Saj fluffed his resignation statement. You can see the puzzlement flash across Boris's face as Javid misspeaks.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    edited July 2022
    GIN1138 said:

    Flounced out of the Cabinet (twice) attempted a Geoffrey Howe moment but was so transparently a leadership pitch that it blunted his message, is dull as dishwater and can't even get 20 people to back him for the leadership.

    Waste of space....
    Hancock Syndrome.
    Not up to it. Was never up to it.

    See also Keir Starmer.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    The Tories are clearly racist, the Muslim heritage people have been barred from standing in the leadership contest.

    Er Zahawi is in, isn't he?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    I wouldn't even put Rehman Chisti on Wankr.
    He's more of a Plonkr.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Sandpit said:

    She said that many of her constituents had complained that they don’t need this payment, and she’d look at if there was a way to easily means-test such payments.

    That said, this winter could be horrific for energy bills.

    My parents, who use it to book flight to come and see me for a few weeks somewhere warm, don’t need it this year or any year.
    Glad to see she's really thought her proposal through.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,428
    Applicant said:

    Yep, that was one of my comments. Which I couldn't have marked as OT!
    I thought you could do both?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The Tories are clearly racist, the Muslim heritage people have been barred from standing in the leadership contest.

    LOL, it’s rather amusing that there’s two white men among the eight nominations.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,273
    Saw a breakfast clip of Zahawi explaining how he could accept a job from Boris one day and be telling him to go the next. He looked very annoyed about it, but it wasn't very convincing - basically that it was his duty to accept the job, and also his duty to tell Boris to go, even though that morning he had been doing the media round.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,391

    I thought you could do both?
    Nope, you can't Like, OT or Flag your own posts.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,111
    The Ukrainians have destroyed a rail bridge with three tons of explosives.

    The bridge was *behind* Russian lines. Quite plucky. No pics of the bridge afterwards, but even if it is still standing, I reckon I wouldn't want to be the first to drive a train or tank across...

    https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vxewg5/ukrainian_forces_destroy_the_railway_bridge/
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,365

    And would be a big problem for Starmer and labour
    Maybe, maybe not. If her lack of experience leads to her making loads of unforced errors then she could turn into a gift for Labour. Speaking as a Labour supporter I am not sure that any of Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt, Badenoch or Tugendhat are obviously better or worse for us. Braverman would probably be our ideal choice, but that's not going to happen, sadly.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,384
    Evening all :)

    When you are dealing with what has been termed as "the most sophisticated electorate in the world" (?), believe nothing or believe everything as a wise man once told me.

    Nominations are not votes - you can nominate Candidate A and vote for Candidate B. If you're clever, you can be courted by Candidates A, B, C and D and vote for Candidate E.

    The weight of numbers behind each candidate is a measure of illusion and delusion. Clearly, getting past the first hurdle means the eight are all serious players if not in terms of winning in terms of endorsement. Now, as we all know, even @Leon I suspect, there's no such thing as a free lunch.

    If you nominate a candidate and that candidate wins, it's reasonable to suppose said victor will be magnanimous in victory and reward their backers accordingly. Of course, if the candidate isn't successful but pledges support to the eventual winner in good time, there are rewards to be had though the old adage of keeping your friends close and your enemies closer should never be forgotten in Cabinet formation.

    Those who have been at the top for longest will have had longest to build networks of support within the Party and will be best placed (arguably) to reward their "friends" - this is why the likes of Sunak start with an advantage. It's not just being Chancellor - it's the control of the Treasury team and the money.

    Osborne built up a formidable network of loyalists - much good it did him in the end but had events transpired otherwise it would likely have smoothed his eventual succession to David Cameron.

    For the lower ranking Ministers, it's that thing you say, that policy you offer, that unexpected offer of supporters which propels you up the rankings and while that may not mean victory today, it likely means a place at the top table and a position of importance in the next contest.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    edited July 2022
    kle4 said:

    Saw a breakfast clip of Zahawi explaining how he could accept a job from Boris one day and be telling him to go the next. He looked very annoyed about it, but it wasn't very convincing - basically that it was his duty to accept the job, and also his duty to tell Boris to go, even though that morning he had been doing the media round.

    He’s only in there as some kind of hedge by the Borisovians if Truss self-combusts.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    I thought you could do both?
    You can't react (like, flag spam or OT) to your own comment. (At least through the VF side on mobile, but presumably on any platform.)
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited July 2022
    Badenoch now in clear 4th place, betting wise

    In to 12/13.5, 5th placed Tugendhat 17.5/22

    Not great liquidity, though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    kle4 said:

    Saw a breakfast clip of Zahawi explaining how he could accept a job from Boris one day and be telling him to go the next. He looked very annoyed about it, but it wasn't very convincing - basically that it was his duty to accept the job, and also his duty to tell Boris to go, even though that morning he had been doing the media round.

    I have a simpler explanation.

    He's as two-faced as Sir Sidney Ruff-Diamond.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,842

    With one hour left before nominations close:-

    3 Rishi Sunak 33%
    3.35 Penny Mordaunt 29%
    4.4 Liz Truss 22%
    17.5 Tom Tugendhat 5%
    18 Kemi Badenoch 5%
    65 Jeremy Hunt
    65 Nadhim Zahawi
    110 Dominic Raab
    150 Sajid Javid
    150 Suella Braverman

    ETA here are the prices to make the final two, in case you want a last minute punt:-

    1.12 Rishi Sunak 89%
    1.79 Penny Mordaunt 55%
    2.78 Liz Truss 35%
    4.5 Tom Tugendhat 22%
    7.6 Kemi Badenoch 13%
    20 Jeremy Hunt 5%
    21 Suella Braverman 4%
    22 Nadhim Zahawi 4%
    25 Sajid Javid 4%
    Prices for the nominated eight, and Raab

    2.96 Rishi Sunak 33%
    3.25 Penny Mordaunt 30%
    4.7 Liz Truss 21%
    14 Kemi Badenoch 7%
    14 Tom Tugendhat 7%
    80 Jeremy Hunt
    90 Suella Braverman
    100 Nadhim Zahawi
    210 Dominic Raab
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,438
    edited July 2022
    It has been alleged (source Guido) that Rishi supporters (organised by Gavin Williamson) went to Hunt to get him over the line.

    It would just be *delicious* if the final two is Sunakless. I mean you'd need a cup of tea and a cigarette after such news.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Nope, you can't Like, OT or Flag your own posts.
    Unless of course you successfully create another PB identity that passes IT scrutiny.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,752

    The Saj fluffed his resignation statement. You can see the puzzlement flash across Boris's face as Javid misspeaks.
    He seems quite a good bloke to me, but really? resigning once and then going back into that muppet show? I hold all the cabinet responsible for maintaining the worst PM in history in office. They knew and did nothing until it was too late. He and Sunak should be on the backbenches for at least a year.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,126
    The government have refused to allow a confidence motion? I thought that was up to the Speaker?

    It's bizarre that it's only convention that governs this, and that the government are arbiters of whether there should be a vote on whether the House has confidence in it.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,877
    Chishti is that inevitable first prat kicked off The Apprentice, isn't he.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    eek said:

    Which shows how little she knows about the real world - nothing is easy which is why you see departments using this data set as it's a decent proxy for what we really want.
    She does have a degree in computing and data, and worked as an engineer before entering politics.

    I’d trust Kemi way more than a PPE or law graduate, to actually take this stuff seriously.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,752
    ydoethur said:

    Did they use sleeper agents?
    They didnt see the points
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,311

    The government have refused to allow a confidence motion? I thought that was up to the Speaker?

    It's bizarre that it's only convention that governs this, and that the government are arbiters of whether there should be a vote on whether the House has confidence in it.

    Unless I am mistaken it was not a motion of confidence in HMG.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,391

    The Tories are clearly racist, the Muslim heritage people have been barred from standing in the leadership contest.

    FAKE NEWS!

    You forgot about Zahawi.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,438
    Sandpit said:

    LOL, it’s rather amusing that there’s two white men among the eight nominations.
    And that they're both no hopers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080
    edited July 2022

    They didnt see the points
    But they had insiding knowledge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,273

    It has been alleged (source Guido) that Rishi supporters (organised by Gavin Williamson) went to Hunt to get him over the line.

    It would just be *delicious* if the final two is Sunakless. I mean you'd need a cup of tea and a cigarette after such news.

    Williamson organising for Sunak is a sure sign Sunak is in trouble even if he wins.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    Unless of course you successfully create another PB identity that passes IT scrutiny.
    As if you could do that.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    THIS THREAD CANCELLED
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,752

    Glad that Tom Tugendhat has made the ballot paper, was worried the guy handing in Tom’s nominations would screw up.




    https://twitter.com/aaronbell4nul/status/1546858767484059649?s=21&t=qKIB8K1e_leGgrn2bLPoEw

    It is a shame for Aaron that convention for listing names is on surname rather than first.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,454
    Sandpit said:

    She does have a degree in computing and data, and worked as an engineer before entering politics.

    I’d trust Kemi way more than a PPE or law graduate, to actually take this stuff seriously.
    Yes, she was making a general comment about the need to upgrade digital state capacity.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The Tories are clearly racist, the Muslim heritage people have been barred from standing in the leadership contest.

    Zahawi is kurdish. They have minorities but are mainly of a sunni disposition.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,391
    ydoethur said:

    Did they use sleeper agents?
    A rail-gun, surely.
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 424
    Just catching up on the earlier debate about the location for Parliament… surely it should be the City whose Governor barred Charles Stuart from entering and seizing the arsenal with which he would have defeated the Parliamentarians; it’s time for the rest of the country to pay its debt of gratitude to Hull
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Shocked and gutted that Chishti didn’t make it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155

    Turns out not all of us can read after all.

    it's the only one in eight hundred years of Parliamentary history that Labour have found to support their case

    Feel free to tell me which of those votes of no confidence was worded in the same way as the current motion.
    Don't be a dunce. Take a look through that list and you'll see many of the confidence votes were on uniquely worded motions; there is no set formula that has to be followed.

    Mind you that was back when we had governments that had a shred of homour about them of course.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,569
    Evening folks.

    It has been gently but persistently raining here, about five miles north of Cheltenham, for the last hour. This is immensely pleasing for us gardeners, especially as it is so unexpected.

    The reason it is unexpected is because it was not forecast, which is immensely pleasing to those of us whose complaints about weather forecasters are regularly dismissed, here and elsewhere.
  • The government have refused to allow a confidence motion? I thought that was up to the Speaker?

    It's bizarre that it's only convention that governs this, and that the government are arbiters of whether there should be a vote on whether the House has confidence in it.

    Labour haven't called a confidence motion, they've tried to be too clever by half, probably deliberately in order to get out of saying they'd call one.

    A confidence motion has to be heard. Any other motion they pretend is a confidence motion, but isnt, does not.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    The government have refused to allow a confidence motion? I thought that was up to the Speaker?

    It's bizarre that it's only convention that governs this, and that the government are arbiters of whether there should be a vote on whether the House has confidence in it.

    No, they've refused to give up government time for a motion which isn't a VONC.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,454
    Jonathan said:

    Shocked and gutted that Chishti didn’t make it.

    At least he'll be able to look back on his achievement of becoming a footnote on the 2022 leadership election Wikipedia page.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,438
    kle4 said:

    Williamson organising for Sunak is a sure sign Sunak is in trouble even if he wins.
    I think even the fiercest Wavin Gilliamson critic would have to acknowledge that malevolent low cunning to secure appointments and titles (though usually for himself) is within his skill set.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,842
    New thread.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,900

    Maybe, maybe not. If her lack of experience leads to her making loads of unforced errors then she could turn into a gift for Labour. Speaking as a Labour supporter I am not sure that any of Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt, Badenoch or Tugendhat are obviously better or worse for us. Braverman would probably be our ideal choice, but that's not going to happen, sadly.
    I agree about Braverman, but of course we view the success or otherwise from our own standpoint but it is clear that until a pm is appointed and a new cabinet the effect on the political scene cannot be predicted sensibly and why polls before the autumn are largely academic
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Is there a reason why the MPs vote has to be done by next Thursday? Could they extend it a few days if necessary or have they all got their summer holidays booked from Saturday?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,080

    Is there a reason why the MPs vote has to be done by next Thursday? Could they extend it a few days if necessary or have they all got their summer holidays booked from Saturday?

    Recess starts, so the latter.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509

    Take a look through that list and you'll see many of the confidence votes were on uniquely worded motions; there is no set formula that has to be followed.
    OK: so you can't find a precedent for a similar motion being given priority either.

  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437

    . Speaking as a Labour supporter I am not sure that any of Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt, Badenoch or Tugendhat are obviously better or worse for us. Braverman would probably be our ideal choice, but that's not going to happen, sadly.

    Surely Sunak's every "Anything But Tory" supporter's wet dream?

    Rich (arguably more through marrying well than success in a real job), privately-educated, ex-non-dom, tax-dodging backstory representing a rich-git North Yorkshire Tory safe seat. Even Starmer could undermine everything Rishi says with a quick reference to the difference between the third overprivileged Tory PM in 6 years and the real world Keir grew up in.

    By the next GE, Keir, helped by the LDs and the SNP, will have forced a civil war within the Tory party if Sunak gets to run it.

    Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt might actually be able to display an alternative vision. Truss, of course: fuggedabouit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,525
    63% of redwall voters say Rishi Sunak is 'out of touch' with working class people. Prepare for the Tories to become a much posher party again if he wins the leadership and becomes PM

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1546856062845915140?s=20&t=DeFMRR65_wa_rRNK2W3L9A
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,173
    Nigelb said:

    What would be the cost of means testing the benefit ?
    Roll it into the basic state pension, so that everyone pays tax on it at their highest marginal rate.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,900
    Sam Coates of Sky has just said Truss is short of the 30 votes needed

    I would be amazed if that is true
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,900
    HYUFD said:

    63% of redwall voters say Rishi Sunak is 'out of touch' with working class people. Prepare for the Tories to become a much posher party again if he wins the leadership and becomes PM

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1546856062845915140?s=20&t=DeFMRR65_wa_rRNK2W3L9A

    It is looking increasingly unlikely he will win
This discussion has been closed.