Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Rishi is clear favourite after a morning of campaign launches – politicalbetting.com

1678911

Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,764
    dixiedean said:

    Eight.

    Hateful?

    :lol:
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    IshmaelZ said:

    Please do not misuse the spam/off topic button.

    Finger hovers...
    It’s like standing on a tall building, the temptation is too much...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    Oh he made it. Fucking weird.

    Ok, what’s the process from here?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited July 2022

    Please do not misuse the spam/off topic button.

    Hear, Hear. Are you listening Applicant?
    I flagged as spam a clear breach of the number one rule of the comments (and the said post has now been deleted). Meanwhile, someone (I could guess who) has been marking me as spam and off topic all afternoon.

    (Edit: including this one! They must really be obsessed with me, to carry on after a warning from @PBModerator...)
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I have been on dates that have lasted longer than some of the candidates have lasted in the leadership race....

    I think the briefest candidacy was about four days, so you have been on dates lasting five or more days?

    Remind me to swipe left if I see you on Geekr, the dating website for politics nerds
    Presumably we’d see you on Wanker
    Well, I am quite well known in certain circles for my impressive wanking, so yes

    Tho if you are trying to tell your first ever joke you should have said "Wankr"
    Which circles? Your imaginary friends?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270

    Surely Zahawi hasn’t made it?

    Surprised he did
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    Made my first betting error, thought everyone was going to get through so needlessly backed the Jav for a 5er at 200s D:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492

    Surely Zahawi hasn’t made it?

    He has. Maybe picked up some support from Javid.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,287
    Applicant said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis

    I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
    Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
    The worry with that is that means testing means administrative costs, which (as Sir Humphrey would tell you) can always be made to outweigh the savings.
    Yep - which is why everything used so far has been based on accessible data - such as council tax band which is easy to identify and works as a fairly accurate proxy for the desired target demographic. .
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Is it Bay-denock or Bad-enock?
    Been irritating me all day.
  • I wonder if the person who has been marking all of my posts off topic for over a day will listen. Bet they won’t!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,350
    kle4 said:

    If Rishi Sunak gets the nomination, I’m worried about the backlash.
    Is Britain ready for a good looking prime minister?

    https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1546887330425888768

    Is Tim okay? Rishi good looking wut

    It's all relative isn't it?
    IIRC there was a ridiculous commentary piece not long after Rishi became Chancellor from some pundit making a ridiculous point about someone else making a comment about finding Starmer more attractive than Rishi, who was objectively more good looking.

    IDK, not my type but he seems at least interesting looking, I can see people thinking so.
    Personally I think he looks like he's gone the distance with Mike Tyson, but that's life's rich tapestry.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Let the Hunger Games begin...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    This IS quite exciting, in a Wankr kind of way

    How many will make it through tomorrow? 5?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    Oh he made it. Fucking weird.

    Ok, what’s the process from here?

    First vote tomorrow.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,936

    Look, I think Labour are perfectly entitled to call a confidence debate. I think if that’s what they want to do, that’s fine. I think it’s Westminster tittle-tattle but if the Labour Party thinks it can derive political advantage by forcing the Tories to vote confidence in the government then that is their prerogative. Personally I don’t think people will give two hoots on who voted what in a symbolic vote in July 2022 by the time the next election rolls round, but thats up to them.

    I think the government are within their rights to reject the wording as conditional on the presence of the Prime Minister as leader of the government as opposed to ‘deploring’ the PM or similar (like the example given). But the option of a vote has been offered. So instead of everyone pratting about why not take that option and hold the vote? I don’t see what Labour have to gain from taking their bat home here - if the tactic was to get Tory MPs to vote for the government then force that result. If the tactic is now to complain that you’re not getting a vote even though one has been offered on different wording, I think that’s even more Westminster Bubble.

    I support the Labour Party holding what has been a particularly shoddy government to account but this isn’t the way of going about it IMHO.

    Holding that vote actually matters quite a lot at a point where we are in uncharted constitutional territory. It would be more than a symbolic vote.

    We will on current plans have had to endure 2 full months of a zombie Government under a PM who has the confidence of very few MPs in his own party and no other MP. In those circumstances, there must be some mechanism to force the PM out. This motion would have provided it - I don't think it would have forced a general election given its conditional nature, but it would have effectively forced out the PM immediately (or forced the Conservatives to dump him in short order to avoid the condition for a GE being met) in favour of a temporary successor such as Raab.

    Allowing the PM to block a parliamentary motion that would have required the immediate departure of the PM is a bad constitutional outcome.
    Agreed.
    Tories are relying on highly dubious procedural pettifogging to obscure the reality.

    Still, it worked to convince (for example) @Big_G_NorthWales , so I suppose it served its point.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Detective Inspector Chris 'underpants' Bryant of the Yard is on to Kemi's hacking
    Hes obviously only just found out about it such is his breathless questioning whether it constitutes a crime on twitter
    Tit

    Twenty-first century Inspector Lestrade, but without that old-school copper's integrity OR intelligence?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,448

    2019 Conservatives in the Red Wall support ...

    Braverman 44%
    Javid 36%
    Tugendhat 31%
    Shapps 29%
    Sunak 24%
    Badenoch 22%
    Mordaunt 15%
    Truss 15%
    Zahawi 13%
    Hunt 11%

    Redfield & Wilton, July 11

    I read this as meaning Conservative members in red wall seats not voters who voted Conservative?
    I am sure that is correct as I cannot believe red wall conservative voters would have that recognition
    Yes.

    Even so - BRAVERMAN?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,754
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Still feels like Truss vs Sunak to me.

    Yeah.
    Depressing if so

    Mordaunt is a stronger candidate than Sunak and Badenoch is better than Truss
    Sunak has big money backing and has been preparing for this for ages. He is the establishment candidate and enjoys a clear advantage with MPs. Truss is best placed to pick up votes from the right as the contest narrows. Both have had big jobs in Cabinet.
    Mordaunt looks best placed to beat Labour but lacks experience. She is something of a blank slate on which people are projecting whatever they want to see. That is even more true of Badenoch. A few weeks ago few had heard of her, let alone seen her as a serious contender for PM. This is not a vote for a LOTO but for a sitting PM. Badenoch would represent the ultimate Hail Mary pass. I think the Tories would be very brave to pick her, in both the literal and the Yes Minister meanings of the word.
  • Embarrassing for The Jav
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    edited July 2022
    Maybe the shock result in the first round could be Hunt being first to go. Sky News saying there was uncertainty as to whether he would the get the numbers for nomination.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    Any MP seconding Zahawi’s nomination should get a snap inspection from the taxman. And if that’s clean, deselected by their local party for being morons.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,959

    I wonder if the person who has been marking all of my posts off topic for over a day will listen. Bet they won’t!

    Can I just say I have never marked any poster off topic and I do not approve of doing it
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I have been on dates that have lasted longer than some of the candidates have lasted in the leadership race....

    I think the briefest candidacy was about four days, so you have been on dates lasting five or more days?

    Remind me to swipe left if I see you on Geekr, the dating website for politics nerds
    Presumably we’d see you on Wanker
    Well, I am quite well known in certain circles for my impressive wanking, so yes

    Tho if you are trying to tell your first ever joke you should have said "Wankr"
    Which circles? Your imaginary friends?
    Oh dear
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    dixiedean said:

    Is it Bay-denock or Bad-enock?
    Been irritating me all day.

    Bad-enock.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    edited July 2022
    kle4 said:

    Oh he made it. Fucking weird.

    Ok, what’s the process from here?

    First vote tomorrow.
    Yes, and what happens?
    What needs to happen to proceed to the second vote?

    Edit; answered by Eek
  • eekeek Posts: 28,287

    Oh he made it. Fucking weird.

    Ok, what’s the process from here?

    Vote tomorrow - the person with the lowest number of votes and anyone who does not get 30 votes is out.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    I wonder if the person who has been marking all of my posts off topic for over a day will listen. Bet they won’t!

    You do know that it's trivial to see that you don't have a single comment from today marked as off topic, right?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    dixiedean said:

    Is it Bay-denock or Bad-enock?
    Been irritating me all day.

    Bad - enuff
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    So tomorrow's the same again but you need another 10 mates by 6pm?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited July 2022

    Let the Hunger Games begin...

    Real life Battle Royale sounds like a great way of selecting a leader. Dishy Rishi definitely ain't winning that.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,194

    Let the Hunger Games begin...

    Isn't that after the State has been radically shrunk?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,959

    2019 Conservatives in the Red Wall support ...

    Braverman 44%
    Javid 36%
    Tugendhat 31%
    Shapps 29%
    Sunak 24%
    Badenoch 22%
    Mordaunt 15%
    Truss 15%
    Zahawi 13%
    Hunt 11%

    Redfield & Wilton, July 11

    I read this as meaning Conservative members in red wall seats not voters who voted Conservative?
    I am sure that is correct as I cannot believe red wall conservative voters would have that recognition
    Yes.

    Even so - BRAVERMAN?

    2019 Conservatives in the Red Wall support ...

    Braverman 44%
    Javid 36%
    Tugendhat 31%
    Shapps 29%
    Sunak 24%
    Badenoch 22%
    Mordaunt 15%
    Truss 15%
    Zahawi 13%
    Hunt 11%

    Redfield & Wilton, July 11

    I read this as meaning Conservative members in red wall seats not voters who voted Conservative?
    I am sure that is correct as I cannot believe red wall conservative voters would have that recognition
    Yes.

    Even so - BRAVERMAN?
    Yes that really stands out
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    Applicant said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis

    I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
    Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
    The worry with that is that means testing means administrative costs, which (as Sir Humphrey would tell you) can always be made to outweigh the savings.
    Why should taxing winter fuel payments add to admin costs?

    HMRC can easily get the tax references of beneficiaries from whatever the Pension peeps are called these days. And, while they're at it, ask District Councils to give them the same data for bus passes.

    It's potty - though not immensely significant - that relatively affluent old farts like me get our age-related tax free. The sooner we pay tax, the sooner the State can start looking properly at the real poverty problems among pensioners who don't own their own houses.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,350
    jonny83 said:

    Surely Zahawi hasn’t made it?

    Surprised he did
    Scores of Schisti fans looking for a home.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I have been on dates that have lasted longer than some of the candidates have lasted in the leadership race....

    I think the briefest candidacy was about four days, so you have been on dates lasting five or more days?

    Remind me to swipe left if I see you on Geekr, the dating website for politics nerds
    Presumably we’d see you on Wanker
    Well, I am quite well known in certain circles for my impressive wanking, so yes

    Tho if you are trying to tell your first ever joke you should have said "Wankr"
    Which circles? Your imaginary friends?
    Oh dear
    You keeping well Leon?
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    8 Confirmed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,936
    Sandpit said:

    Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis

    I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
    Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
    What would be the cost of means testing the benefit ?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,494

    NOM 1.73
    Con Maj 3.75
    Lab Maj 4.5

    Lay Lab Maj

    The prospect of a Lab majority (326+ seats) remain tiny. More like 20/1.

    The chance of a Tory majority are more like 6/4.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Javid paying the price for quitting Cabinet twice perhaps.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,959
    Nigelb said:

    Look, I think Labour are perfectly entitled to call a confidence debate. I think if that’s what they want to do, that’s fine. I think it’s Westminster tittle-tattle but if the Labour Party thinks it can derive political advantage by forcing the Tories to vote confidence in the government then that is their prerogative. Personally I don’t think people will give two hoots on who voted what in a symbolic vote in July 2022 by the time the next election rolls round, but thats up to them.

    I think the government are within their rights to reject the wording as conditional on the presence of the Prime Minister as leader of the government as opposed to ‘deploring’ the PM or similar (like the example given). But the option of a vote has been offered. So instead of everyone pratting about why not take that option and hold the vote? I don’t see what Labour have to gain from taking their bat home here - if the tactic was to get Tory MPs to vote for the government then force that result. If the tactic is now to complain that you’re not getting a vote even though one has been offered on different wording, I think that’s even more Westminster Bubble.

    I support the Labour Party holding what has been a particularly shoddy government to account but this isn’t the way of going about it IMHO.

    Holding that vote actually matters quite a lot at a point where we are in uncharted constitutional territory. It would be more than a symbolic vote.

    We will on current plans have had to endure 2 full months of a zombie Government under a PM who has the confidence of very few MPs in his own party and no other MP. In those circumstances, there must be some mechanism to force the PM out. This motion would have provided it - I don't think it would have forced a general election given its conditional nature, but it would have effectively forced out the PM immediately (or forced the Conservatives to dump him in short order to avoid the condition for a GE being met) in favour of a temporary successor such as Raab.

    Allowing the PM to block a parliamentary motion that would have required the immediate departure of the PM is a bad constitutional outcome.
    Agreed.
    Tories are relying on highly dubious procedural pettifogging to obscure the reality.

    Still, it worked to convince (for example) @Big_G_NorthWales , so I suppose it served its point.
    I just found it amusing
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2022

    Detective Inspector Chris 'underpants' Bryant of the Yard is on to Kemi's hacking
    Hes obviously only just found out about it such is his breathless questioning whether it constitutes a crime on twitter
    Tit

    Twenty-first century Inspector Lestrade, but without that old-school copper's integrity OR intelligence?
    Given Lestrade is described as a sallow rat eyed fellow i couldnt possibly comment!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,726
    dixiedean said:

    Is it Bay-denock or Bad-enock?
    Been irritating me all day.

    The original name is Bàideanach in the Gaelic, so that also confirms it's not a k but the aspirated -kh as in loch (also in German eg).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    What happens if there's a tie for last place and they both get at least 30 votes?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,029

    I see that the Tour de France was disrupted by the eco-fascists today. French Tv absolutely has the right policy, no mention of what they are protesting nor any pictures of them. Instead showed lovely pictures of the mountains.

    This is like when there was a streaker problem. When tv stopped showing them and "joining in with the fun", they have pretty much disappeared.

    But Eurosport commentary explained who they were and what they wanted.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,448
    kle4 said:

    Still feels like Truss vs Sunak to me.

    Truss would win that 🤮
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    IshmaelZ said:

    So tomorrow's the same again but you need another 10 mates by 6pm?

    No, sooner than that - I think they said balloting would be open from 1.30 to 3.30pm.

    And this time they don't get to collect signatures on paper...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,287
    Flanner said:

    Applicant said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis

    I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
    Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
    The worry with that is that means testing means administrative costs, which (as Sir Humphrey would tell you) can always be made to outweigh the savings.
    Why should taxing winter fuel payments add to admin costs?

    HMRC can easily get the tax references of beneficiaries from whatever the Pension peeps are called these days. And, while they're at it, ask District Councils to give them the same data for bus passes.

    It's potty - though not immensely significant - that relatively affluent old farts like me get our age-related tax free. The sooner we pay tax, the sooner the State can start looking properly at the real poverty problems among pensioners who don't own their own houses.
    That isn't how things work - data can't be randomly transferred like that
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,936

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I have been on dates that have lasted longer than some of the candidates have lasted in the leadership race....

    I think the briefest candidacy was about four days, so you have been on dates lasting five or more days?

    Remind me to swipe left if I see you on Geekr, the dating website for politics nerds
    Presumably we’d see you on Wanker
    Well, I am quite well known in certain circles for my impressive wanking, so yes

    Tho if you are trying to tell your first ever joke you should have said "Wankr"
    Which circles?
    Circle jerk circles, presumably ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Is it Bay-denock or Bad-enock?
    Been irritating me all day.

    Bad-enock.
    I thought as much. Can we inform the media?
    It's incredibly disrespectful not to discover how someone says their name and then try to reproduce it.
    Just rude.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I have been on dates that have lasted longer than some of the candidates have lasted in the leadership race....

    I think the briefest candidacy was about four days, so you have been on dates lasting five or more days?

    Remind me to swipe left if I see you on Geekr, the dating website for politics nerds
    Presumably we’d see you on Wanker
    Well, I am quite well known in certain circles for my impressive wanking, so yes

    Tho if you are trying to tell your first ever joke you should have said "Wankr"
    Which circles? Your imaginary friends?
    Oh dear
    You keeping well Leon?
    Yes, Mr Correct Horse Battery, quite well. I am staring at the Bay of Kotor in the evening light. It is quite special

    I hope you are managing your mood swings. I have suffered from similar throughout my life. If it helps, they tend to smooth out with age.....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,959

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Still feels like Truss vs Sunak to me.

    Yeah.
    Depressing if so

    Mordaunt is a stronger candidate than Sunak and Badenoch is better than Truss
    Sunak has big money backing and has been preparing for this for ages. He is the establishment candidate and enjoys a clear advantage with MPs. Truss is best placed to pick up votes from the right as the contest narrows. Both have had big jobs in Cabinet.
    Mordaunt looks best placed to beat Labour but lacks experience. She is something of a blank slate on which people are projecting whatever they want to see. That is even more true of Badenoch. A few weeks ago few had heard of her, let alone seen her as a serious contender for PM. This is not a vote for a LOTO but for a sitting PM. Badenoch would represent the ultimate Hail Mary pass. I think the Tories would be very brave to pick her, in both the literal and the Yes Minister meanings of the word.
    And would be a big problem for Starmer and labour
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    IshmaelZ said:

    So tomorrow's the same again but you need another 10 mates by 6pm?

    By 3.30pm tomorrow
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,194
    Andy_JS said:

    What happens if there's a tie for last place and they both get at least 30 votes?

    Lipsynch for their lives.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Andy_JS said:

    What happens if there's a tie for last place and they both get at least 30 votes?

    I don't have a reference to hand, but IIRC from last time a tie for last place excludes both.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,936

    Nigelb said:

    Look, I think Labour are perfectly entitled to call a confidence debate. I think if that’s what they want to do, that’s fine. I think it’s Westminster tittle-tattle but if the Labour Party thinks it can derive political advantage by forcing the Tories to vote confidence in the government then that is their prerogative. Personally I don’t think people will give two hoots on who voted what in a symbolic vote in July 2022 by the time the next election rolls round, but thats up to them.

    I think the government are within their rights to reject the wording as conditional on the presence of the Prime Minister as leader of the government as opposed to ‘deploring’ the PM or similar (like the example given). But the option of a vote has been offered. So instead of everyone pratting about why not take that option and hold the vote? I don’t see what Labour have to gain from taking their bat home here - if the tactic was to get Tory MPs to vote for the government then force that result. If the tactic is now to complain that you’re not getting a vote even though one has been offered on different wording, I think that’s even more Westminster Bubble.

    I support the Labour Party holding what has been a particularly shoddy government to account but this isn’t the way of going about it IMHO.

    Holding that vote actually matters quite a lot at a point where we are in uncharted constitutional territory. It would be more than a symbolic vote.

    We will on current plans have had to endure 2 full months of a zombie Government under a PM who has the confidence of very few MPs in his own party and no other MP. In those circumstances, there must be some mechanism to force the PM out. This motion would have provided it - I don't think it would have forced a general election given its conditional nature, but it would have effectively forced out the PM immediately (or forced the Conservatives to dump him in short order to avoid the condition for a GE being met) in favour of a temporary successor such as Raab.

    Allowing the PM to block a parliamentary motion that would have required the immediate departure of the PM is a bad constitutional outcome.
    Agreed.
    Tories are relying on highly dubious procedural pettifogging to obscure the reality.

    Still, it worked to convince (for example) @Big_G_NorthWales , so I suppose it served its point.
    I just found it amusing
    Sure.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis

    I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
    Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
    What would be the cost of means testing the benefit ?
    There’s already means-tested Pension Credit, so very little. They’re just pointing the credit at a different database.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    kle4 said:

    Still feels like Truss vs Sunak to me.

    Truss would win that 🤮
    I feel like Sunak would only win against Hunt, and maybe Tugendhat. I was surprised by my anecdote generator that not only did he already recognise him and not like him, he'd picked up Sunak's comments about tax cuts and was not supportive.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,448

    Let the Hunger Games begin...

    Real life Battle Royale sounds like a great way of selecting a leader. Dishy Rishi definitely ain't winning that.
    He’s a small target?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Andy_JS said:

    What happens if there's a tie for last place and they both get at least 30 votes?

    Arm wrestle for it
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I have been on dates that have lasted longer than some of the candidates have lasted in the leadership race....

    I think the briefest candidacy was about four days, so you have been on dates lasting five or more days?

    Remind me to swipe left if I see you on Geekr, the dating website for politics nerds
    Presumably we’d see you on Wanker
    Well, I am quite well known in certain circles for my impressive wanking, so yes

    Tho if you are trying to tell your first ever joke you should have said "Wankr"
    Which circles? Your imaginary friends?
    Oh dear
    You keeping well Leon?
    Yes, Mr Correct Horse Battery, quite well. I am staring at the Bay of Kotor in the evening light. It is quite special

    I hope you are managing your mood swings. I have suffered from similar throughout my life. If it helps, they tend to smooth out with age.....
    No mood swings here thank you, been keeping on a stable level for over six months now even after coming off the anti-depressants I was on.
    Good man
  • Opinium poll for Channel 4 News has Rishi Sunak in front still

    Rishi - 28%
    Liz - 20%
    Penny - 14%
    Hunt - 9%
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Applicant said:

    Please do not misuse the spam/off topic button.

    Hear, Hear. Are you listening Applicant?
    I flagged as spam a clear breach of the number one rule of the comments (and the said post has now been deleted). Meanwhile, someone (I could guess who) has been marking me as spam and off topic all afternoon.

    (Edit: including this one! They must really be obsessed with me, to carry on after a warning from @PBModerator...)
    You OT'd me the other day when i replied to a thread about the remain/brexit tactics
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,726
    edited July 2022
    Flanner said:

    Applicant said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis

    I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
    Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
    The worry with that is that means testing means administrative costs, which (as Sir Humphrey would tell you) can always be made to outweigh the savings.
    Why should taxing winter fuel payments add to admin costs?

    HMRC can easily get the tax references of beneficiaries from whatever the Pension peeps are called these days. And, while they're at it, ask District Councils to give them the same data for bus passes.

    It's potty - though not immensely significant - that relatively affluent old farts like me get our age-related tax free. The sooner we pay tax, the sooner the State can start looking properly at the real poverty problems among pensioners who don't own their own houses.
    Are you sure DSS use UTR tax references at all? IIRC they only use their own number - logically enough the NI Number. Which should surely do just as well.

    Edit: DSS can't even provide annual P60s for some reason which completely escapes me - a complete pain.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    edited July 2022
    Applicant said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What happens if there's a tie for last place and they both get at least 30 votes?

    I don't have a reference to hand, but IIRC from last time a tie for last place excludes both.
    Because I was a weird teenager I can remember what happened in 1997 when there was a tie for last place in the first round between (I think) Peter Lillee and Michael Ancram. The round was run again, and this time they both would have been eliminated if the same thing had happened again, which it didn't. Those rules had to be made up on the hoof by the 1922 Committee.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,764
    Andy_JS said:

    What happens if there's a tie for last place and they both get at least 30 votes?

    "It's a Woke-off!"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    slade said:

    I see that the Tour de France was disrupted by the eco-fascists today. French Tv absolutely has the right policy, no mention of what they are protesting nor any pictures of them. Instead showed lovely pictures of the mountains.

    This is like when there was a streaker problem. When tv stopped showing them and "joining in with the fun", they have pretty much disappeared.

    But Eurosport commentary explained who they were and what they wanted.
    And that's the problem. Just blank them out and they will stop gluing themselves to F1 racetracks and in front of the Tour de France peleton.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    Andy_JS said:

    What happens if there's a tie for last place and they both get at least 30 votes?

    There's only one way to find out.
    FIGHT!!!
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I have been on dates that have lasted longer than some of the candidates have lasted in the leadership race....

    I think the briefest candidacy was about four days, so you have been on dates lasting five or more days?

    Remind me to swipe left if I see you on Geekr, the dating website for politics nerds
    Presumably we’d see you on Wanker
    Well, I am quite well known in certain circles for my impressive wanking, so yes

    Tho if you are trying to tell your first ever joke you should have said "Wankr"
    Which circles? Your imaginary friends?
    Oh dear
    You keeping well Leon?
    Yes, Mr Correct Horse Battery, quite well. I am staring at the Bay of Kotor in the evening light. It is quite special

    I hope you are managing your mood swings. I have suffered from similar throughout my life. If it helps, they tend to smooth out with age.....
    No mood swings here thank you, been keeping on a stable level for over six months now even after coming off the anti-depressants I was on.
    Good man
    Thank you and hope you keep well

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,959
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Look, I think Labour are perfectly entitled to call a confidence debate. I think if that’s what they want to do, that’s fine. I think it’s Westminster tittle-tattle but if the Labour Party thinks it can derive political advantage by forcing the Tories to vote confidence in the government then that is their prerogative. Personally I don’t think people will give two hoots on who voted what in a symbolic vote in July 2022 by the time the next election rolls round, but thats up to them.

    I think the government are within their rights to reject the wording as conditional on the presence of the Prime Minister as leader of the government as opposed to ‘deploring’ the PM or similar (like the example given). But the option of a vote has been offered. So instead of everyone pratting about why not take that option and hold the vote? I don’t see what Labour have to gain from taking their bat home here - if the tactic was to get Tory MPs to vote for the government then force that result. If the tactic is now to complain that you’re not getting a vote even though one has been offered on different wording, I think that’s even more Westminster Bubble.

    I support the Labour Party holding what has been a particularly shoddy government to account but this isn’t the way of going about it IMHO.

    Holding that vote actually matters quite a lot at a point where we are in uncharted constitutional territory. It would be more than a symbolic vote.

    We will on current plans have had to endure 2 full months of a zombie Government under a PM who has the confidence of very few MPs in his own party and no other MP. In those circumstances, there must be some mechanism to force the PM out. This motion would have provided it - I don't think it would have forced a general election given its conditional nature, but it would have effectively forced out the PM immediately (or forced the Conservatives to dump him in short order to avoid the condition for a GE being met) in favour of a temporary successor such as Raab.

    Allowing the PM to block a parliamentary motion that would have required the immediate departure of the PM is a bad constitutional outcome.
    Agreed.
    Tories are relying on highly dubious procedural pettifogging to obscure the reality.

    Still, it worked to convince (for example) @Big_G_NorthWales , so I suppose it served its point.
    I just found it amusing
    Sure.
    You need to lighten up a wee bit

    It is amusing
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    JACK_W said:

    Javid OUT

    Hoist by his own non domery. Bad omen for sunak.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited July 2022

    Applicant said:

    Please do not misuse the spam/off topic button.

    Hear, Hear. Are you listening Applicant?
    I flagged as spam a clear breach of the number one rule of the comments (and the said post has now been deleted). Meanwhile, someone (I could guess who) has been marking me as spam and off topic all afternoon.

    (Edit: including this one! They must really be obsessed with me, to carry on after a warning from @PBModerator...)
    You OT'd me the other day when i replied to a thread about the remain/brexit tactics
    Got a link? I don't recall that. Could have been a fat finger on my phone, if it was me.

    But how do you know it was me?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Still feels like Truss vs Sunak to me.

    Yeah.
    Depressing if so

    Mordaunt is a stronger candidate than Sunak and Badenoch is better than Truss
    Sunak has big money backing and has been preparing for this for ages. He is the establishment candidate and enjoys a clear advantage with MPs. Truss is best placed to pick up votes from the right as the contest narrows. Both have had big jobs in Cabinet.
    Mordaunt looks best placed to beat Labour but lacks experience. She is something of a blank slate on which people are projecting whatever they want to see. That is even more true of Badenoch. A few weeks ago few had heard of her, let alone seen her as a serious contender for PM. This is not a vote for a LOTO but for a sitting PM. Badenoch would represent the ultimate Hail Mary pass. I think the Tories would be very brave to pick her, in both the literal and the Yes Minister meanings of the word.
    And would be a big problem for Starmer and labour
    Yeah.
    He'd need to plan to move house shortly.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,448

    2019 Conservatives in the Red Wall support ...

    Braverman 44%
    Javid 36%
    Tugendhat 31%
    Shapps 29%
    Sunak 24%
    Badenoch 22%
    Mordaunt 15%
    Truss 15%
    Zahawi 13%
    Hunt 11%

    Redfield & Wilton, July 11

    I read this as meaning Conservative members in red wall seats not voters who voted Conservative?
    I am sure that is correct as I cannot believe red wall conservative voters would have that recognition
    Yes.

    Even so - BRAVERMAN?

    2019 Conservatives in the Red Wall support ...

    Braverman 44%
    Javid 36%
    Tugendhat 31%
    Shapps 29%
    Sunak 24%
    Badenoch 22%
    Mordaunt 15%
    Truss 15%
    Zahawi 13%
    Hunt 11%

    Redfield & Wilton, July 11

    I read this as meaning Conservative members in red wall seats not voters who voted Conservative?
    I am sure that is correct as I cannot believe red wall conservative voters would have that recognition
    Yes.

    Even so - BRAVERMAN?
    Yes that really stands out
    You done one of thems double yoke posts. 🤩

    And they wanted Jav second.

    I thinking Red Wall Tories don’t deserve to win anything 😇
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,324

    Leon said:

    I have been on dates that have lasted longer than some of the candidates have lasted in the leadership race....

    I think the briefest candidacy was about four days, so you have been on dates lasting five or more days?

    Remind me to swipe left if I see you on Geekr, the dating website for politics nerds
    Presumably we’d see you on Wanker
    You OK Horse? You seem in a very tetchy mood for some reason.
  • Tories tell us it’s a big problem for Labour but frankly I think we’re probably at the stage where time for change is the most appealing thing.

    If CoL gets worse I think we will see a 20 point Labour lead. I wonder if I can bet on such an outcome anywhere?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Oh to be a fly on the wall if it comes down to Mordaunt and Truss having to decide which one of them should drop out in order to stop Sunak.
  • ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    I have been on dates that have lasted longer than some of the candidates have lasted in the leadership race....

    I think the briefest candidacy was about four days, so you have been on dates lasting five or more days?

    Remind me to swipe left if I see you on Geekr, the dating website for politics nerds
    Presumably we’d see you on Wanker
    You OK Horse? You seem in a very tetchy mood for some reason.
    Thanks but not tetchy. Was just making a bad joke to Leon
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,936
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis

    I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
    Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
    What would be the cost of means testing the benefit ?
    There’s already means-tested Pension Credit, so very little. They’re just pointing the credit at a different database.
    So it would be paid only to those who qualify for Means Tested Pension Credit ?

    That would certainly make sense, but I don't expect that would be very popular at all. Anything else would be rather more costly to administer. Do you know how much ?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,448
    IshmaelZ said:

    JACK_W said:

    Javid OUT

    Hoist by his own non domery. Bad omen for sunak.
    His 1% cut for NHS promise may have shot his other leg off.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243
    JACK_W said:

    Javid OUT

    Is that the end of The Saj's career in front-line politics?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Have they released figures on the exact number of nominations? Are they due to if not?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,350
    GIN1138 said:

    JACK_W said:

    Javid OUT

    Is that the end of The Saj's career in front-line politics?
    Why would it be?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,936

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Look, I think Labour are perfectly entitled to call a confidence debate. I think if that’s what they want to do, that’s fine. I think it’s Westminster tittle-tattle but if the Labour Party thinks it can derive political advantage by forcing the Tories to vote confidence in the government then that is their prerogative. Personally I don’t think people will give two hoots on who voted what in a symbolic vote in July 2022 by the time the next election rolls round, but thats up to them.

    I think the government are within their rights to reject the wording as conditional on the presence of the Prime Minister as leader of the government as opposed to ‘deploring’ the PM or similar (like the example given). But the option of a vote has been offered. So instead of everyone pratting about why not take that option and hold the vote? I don’t see what Labour have to gain from taking their bat home here - if the tactic was to get Tory MPs to vote for the government then force that result. If the tactic is now to complain that you’re not getting a vote even though one has been offered on different wording, I think that’s even more Westminster Bubble.

    I support the Labour Party holding what has been a particularly shoddy government to account but this isn’t the way of going about it IMHO.

    Holding that vote actually matters quite a lot at a point where we are in uncharted constitutional territory. It would be more than a symbolic vote.

    We will on current plans have had to endure 2 full months of a zombie Government under a PM who has the confidence of very few MPs in his own party and no other MP. In those circumstances, there must be some mechanism to force the PM out. This motion would have provided it - I don't think it would have forced a general election given its conditional nature, but it would have effectively forced out the PM immediately (or forced the Conservatives to dump him in short order to avoid the condition for a GE being met) in favour of a temporary successor such as Raab.

    Allowing the PM to block a parliamentary motion that would have required the immediate departure of the PM is a bad constitutional outcome.
    Agreed.
    Tories are relying on highly dubious procedural pettifogging to obscure the reality.

    Still, it worked to convince (for example) @Big_G_NorthWales , so I suppose it served its point.
    I just found it amusing
    Sure.
    You need to lighten up a wee bit

    It is amusing
    It sets a most unamusing precedent.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Please do not misuse the spam/off topic button.

    Hear, Hear. Are you listening Applicant?
    I flagged as spam a clear breach of the number one rule of the comments (and the said post has now been deleted). Meanwhile, someone (I could guess who) has been marking me as spam and off topic all afternoon.

    (Edit: including this one! They must really be obsessed with me, to carry on after a warning from @PBModerator...)
    You OT'd me the other day when i replied to a thread about the remain/brexit tactics
    Got a link? I don't recall that. Could have been a fat finger on my phone, if it was me.

    But how do you know it was me?
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4016335#Comment_4016335
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,448

    Opinium poll for Channel 4 News has Rishi Sunak in front still

    Rishi - 28%
    Liz - 20%
    Penny - 14%
    Hunt - 9%

    These taking the temperature things are absolutely all over the place.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,298
    Pulpstar said:

    Made my first betting error, thought everyone was going to get through so needlessly backed the Jav for a 5er at 200s D:

    I did the opposite but laid down Zahawi expecting he'd also fail.

    His candidacy is a total waste of time.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/12/sunak-narrow-favourite-over-truss-for-next-pm-says-mystic-meg-of-politics

    Makes the good point that sunak haters should be kicking themselves for their premature ejaculation of the non dom stuff. Unless they have something even juicier in reserve...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,287
    edited July 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis

    I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
    Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
    What would be the cost of means testing the benefit ?
    There’s already means-tested Pension Credit, so very little. They’re just pointing the credit at a different database.
    So it would be paid only to those who qualify for Means Tested Pension Credit ?
    Problem with means tested pension credit is that an awful lot of people who should claim it don't, In fact the most common time for people to start claiming it, is (from memory) after someone is checked for social care needs (so aged 75+)

    That's why I suggested a while back that it makes sense to significantly increase the State Pension to remove the need for means testing while introducing NI at the same time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509
    edited July 2022

    Have they released figures on the exact number of nominations? Are they due to if not?

    8 nominations were received, each nomination form contained 20 signatures. The nominator and seconder for each candidate were read out.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Please do not misuse the spam/off topic button.

    Hear, Hear. Are you listening Applicant?
    I flagged as spam a clear breach of the number one rule of the comments (and the said post has now been deleted). Meanwhile, someone (I could guess who) has been marking me as spam and off topic all afternoon.

    (Edit: including this one! They must really be obsessed with me, to carry on after a warning from @PBModerator...)
    You OT'd me the other day when i replied to a thread about the remain/brexit tactics
    Got a link? I don't recall that. Could have been a fat finger on my phone, if it was me.

    But how do you know it was me?
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4016335#Comment_4016335
    Looking at it again, it looks like your reply was OT'd. if it was I apologise and withdraw my slur....
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    Carnyx said:

    Flanner said:

    Applicant said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis

    I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
    Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
    The worry with that is that means testing means administrative costs, which (as Sir Humphrey would tell you) can always be made to outweigh the savings.
    Why should taxing winter fuel payments add to admin costs?

    HMRC can easily get the tax references of beneficiaries from whatever the Pension peeps are called these days. And, while they're at it, ask District Councils to give them the same data for bus passes.

    It's potty - though not immensely significant - that relatively affluent old farts like me get our age-related tax free. The sooner we pay tax, the sooner the State can start looking properly at the real poverty problems among pensioners who don't own their own houses.
    Are you sure DSS use UTR tax references at all? IIRC they only use their own number - logically enough the NI Number. Which should surely do just as well.
    It'd take the rest of the day to find recent letters from either. But HMRC never have a problem knowing how much state pension I get, even before I fill in a tax return - and DSS have no problem working out whether the winter fuel allowance should be credited to me or Mrs F.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 500
    edited July 2022

    Labour checked with the clerks, who have the final say on wording, and it's valid,

    Says who? "Labour sources".

    and there is a precedent for a similar motion being given priority (from when the Tories used a similar motion against Wlison).

    We can read, Nick: it's the only one in eight hundred years of Parliamentary history that Labour have found to support their case, and the wording is still completely different. If Labour think it's "a similar motion", let them bring forward the 1965 wording and see who's ignoring conventions and precedents.
    "... it's the only one in eight hundred years of Parliamentary history ..."

    That of course is utter bollocks, as a quick visit to wiki would confirm:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_votes_of_no_confidence_in_British_governments
    Turns out not all of us can read after all.

    it's the only one in eight hundred years of Parliamentary history that Labour have found to support their case

    Feel free to tell me which of those votes of no confidence was worded in the same way as the current motion.

    Labour checked with the clerks, who have the final say on wording, and it's valid,

    Says who? "Labour sources".
    Your sources?
    Mandy Rice-Davies.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    When is the Dog Named Wallace going to bark about Sunak then? Or is he doing it behind closed doors? Logically if he sees all the candidates as equally supportive of Ukraine, he’ll stay quiet on the basis that they would all keep him in post. If he genuinely fears how a Sunak premiership might impact things, I guess he’ll wait until the final 3?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,741
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    Is it Bay-denock or Bad-enock?
    Been irritating me all day.

    The original name is Bàideanach in the Gaelic, so that also confirms it's not a k but the aspirated -kh as in loch (also in German eg).
    Perhaps the BBC will do a voxpop in Kingussie to see what the natives think about her chances?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    .
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Look, I think Labour are perfectly entitled to call a confidence debate. I think if that’s what they want to do, that’s fine. I think it’s Westminster tittle-tattle but if the Labour Party thinks it can derive political advantage by forcing the Tories to vote confidence in the government then that is their prerogative. Personally I don’t think people will give two hoots on who voted what in a symbolic vote in July 2022 by the time the next election rolls round, but thats up to them.

    I think the government are within their rights to reject the wording as conditional on the presence of the Prime Minister as leader of the government as opposed to ‘deploring’ the PM or similar (like the example given). But the option of a vote has been offered. So instead of everyone pratting about why not take that option and hold the vote? I don’t see what Labour have to gain from taking their bat home here - if the tactic was to get Tory MPs to vote for the government then force that result. If the tactic is now to complain that you’re not getting a vote even though one has been offered on different wording, I think that’s even more Westminster Bubble.

    I support the Labour Party holding what has been a particularly shoddy government to account but this isn’t the way of going about it IMHO.

    Holding that vote actually matters quite a lot at a point where we are in uncharted constitutional territory. It would be more than a symbolic vote.

    We will on current plans have had to endure 2 full months of a zombie Government under a PM who has the confidence of very few MPs in his own party and no other MP. In those circumstances, there must be some mechanism to force the PM out. This motion would have provided it - I don't think it would have forced a general election given its conditional nature, but it would have effectively forced out the PM immediately (or forced the Conservatives to dump him in short order to avoid the condition for a GE being met) in favour of a temporary successor such as Raab.

    Allowing the PM to block a parliamentary motion that would have required the immediate departure of the PM is a bad constitutional outcome.
    Agreed.
    Tories are relying on highly dubious procedural pettifogging to obscure the reality.

    Still, it worked to convince (for example) @Big_G_NorthWales , so I suppose it served its point.
    I just found it amusing
    Sure.
    You need to lighten up a wee bit

    It is amusing
    It sets a most unamusing precedent.
    What, that "temporary no confidence" doesn't exist?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243

    GIN1138 said:

    JACK_W said:

    Javid OUT

    Is that the end of The Saj's career in front-line politics?
    Why would it be?
    Flounced out of the Cabinet (twice) attempted a Geoffrey Howe moment but was so transparently a leadership pitch that it blunted his message, is dull as dishwater and can't even get 20 people to back him for the leadership.

    Waste of space....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,922
    Mixed messaging alert.

    Labour: we will do no deals with the SNP, if Scots want to get rid of the Tories they must vote Labour.

    Also Labour: we are so definite about no deals with the SNP that we’ve suspended two councillors for refusing to support a deal with the Tories!

    https://twitter.com/fr4ser/status/1546848092582023170?s=21&t=OoKkiwiSuswrucLvTD-1_Q

    Whit an eejit.
This discussion has been closed.