I flagged as spam a clear breach of the number one rule of the comments (and the said post has now been deleted). Meanwhile, someone (I could guess who) has been marking me as spam and off topic all afternoon.
(Edit: including this one! They must really be obsessed with me, to carry on after a warning from @PBModerator...)
You OT'd me the other day when i replied to a thread about the remain/brexit tactics
Got a link? I don't recall that. Could have been a fat finger on my phone, if it was me.
Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis
I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
What would be the cost of means testing the benefit ?
I can't imagine it would be that difficult to only pay it to those on Pension Credit. It's paid by DWP who already do some automated cross-checking with benefits to determine the payment amount.
One unintended consequence of removing it from wealthier beneficiaries would be to pull finding from a number of the regional Surviving Winter charities, e.g.
Look, I think Labour are perfectly entitled to call a confidence debate. I think if that’s what they want to do, that’s fine. I think it’s Westminster tittle-tattle but if the Labour Party thinks it can derive political advantage by forcing the Tories to vote confidence in the government then that is their prerogative. Personally I don’t think people will give two hoots on who voted what in a symbolic vote in July 2022 by the time the next election rolls round, but thats up to them.
I think the government are within their rights to reject the wording as conditional on the presence of the Prime Minister as leader of the government as opposed to ‘deploring’ the PM or similar (like the example given). But the option of a vote has been offered. So instead of everyone pratting about why not take that option and hold the vote? I don’t see what Labour have to gain from taking their bat home here - if the tactic was to get Tory MPs to vote for the government then force that result. If the tactic is now to complain that you’re not getting a vote even though one has been offered on different wording, I think that’s even more Westminster Bubble.
I support the Labour Party holding what has been a particularly shoddy government to account but this isn’t the way of going about it IMHO.
Holding that vote actually matters quite a lot at a point where we are in uncharted constitutional territory. It would be more than a symbolic vote.
We will on current plans have had to endure 2 full months of a zombie Government under a PM who has the confidence of very few MPs in his own party and no other MP. In those circumstances, there must be some mechanism to force the PM out. This motion would have provided it - I don't think it would have forced a general election given its conditional nature, but it would have effectively forced out the PM immediately (or forced the Conservatives to dump him in short order to avoid the condition for a GE being met) in favour of a temporary successor such as Raab.
Allowing the PM to block a parliamentary motion that would have required the immediate departure of the PM is a bad constitutional outcome.
Agreed. Tories are relying on highly dubious procedural pettifogging to obscure the reality.
Still, it worked to convince (for example) @Big_G_NorthWales , so I suppose it served its point.
Yes the necessary pearls have been clutched in North Wales, job done.
Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis
I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
What would be the cost of means testing the benefit ?
There’s already means-tested Pension Credit, so very little. They’re just pointing the credit at a different database.
So it would be paid only to those who qualify for Means Tested Pension Credit ?
That would certainly make sense, but I don't expect that would be very popular at all. Anything else would be rather more costly to administer. Do you know how much ?
She said that many of her constituents had complained that they don’t need this payment, and she’d look at if there was a way to easily means-test such payments.
That said, this winter could be horrific for energy bills.
My parents, who use it to book flight to come and see me for a few weeks somewhere warm, don’t need it this year or any year.
Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis
I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
What would be the cost of means testing the benefit ?
There’s already means-tested Pension Credit, so very little. They’re just pointing the credit at a different database.
So it would be paid only to those who qualify for Means Tested Pension Credit ?
Problem with means tested pension credit is that an awful lot of people who should claim it don't, In fact the most common time for people to start claiming it, is (from memory) after someone is checked for social care needs (so aged 75+)
That's why I suggested a while back that it makes sense to significantly increase the State Pension to remove the need for means testing while introducing NI at the same time.
I have a teaching pension which automatically doesn't get NI'd. As I am not 66 yet, I would be quite happy to pay NI on it, that's up to them to do though.
Oh to be a fly on the wall if it comes down to Mordaunt and Truss having to decide which one of them should drop out in order to stop Sunak.
In 1932 Democratic National Convention (last one operating under 2/3 requirement for nomination) that is the choice that faced Franklin Roosevelt's two leading opponents: Al Smith (1928 Dem nominee) and John Nance Garner (Speaker of US House).
Until key backers for Garner (namely media mogul William Randolph Hurst who controlled California delegation, and Texas delegation led by Congressman Sam Rayburn) cut a deal with FDR that gave him the nomination with JNG as his VP running mate.
Incidentally, the leader of the CA delegation, who announced the switch in support from Garner to Roosevelt, was US Senator William Gibbs McAdoo, who had been Al Smith's bitter rival (all the way through 104 ballots) for 1924 Democratic nomination. Who clearly enjoyed stabbing Smith in the front - then twisting the knife.
Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis
I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
What would be the cost of means testing the benefit ?
There’s already means-tested Pension Credit, so very little. They’re just pointing the credit at a different database.
So it would be paid only to those who qualify for Means Tested Pension Credit ?
That would certainly make sense, but I don't expect that would be very popular at all. Anything else would be rather more costly to administer. Do you know how much ?
She said that many of her constituents had complained that they don’t need this payment, and she’d look at if there ways to easily means-test such payments.
Which shows how little she knows about the real world - nothing is easy which is why you see departments using this data set as it's a decent proxy for what we really want.
Is that the end of The Saj's career in front-line politics?
Why would it be?
Flounced out of the Cabinet (twice) attempted a Geoffrey Howe moment but was so transparently a leadership pitch that it blunted his message, is dull as dishwater and can't even get 20 people to back him for the leadership.
Waste of space....
Hancock Syndrome. Not up to it. Was never up to it.
Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis
I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
What would be the cost of means testing the benefit ?
There’s already means-tested Pension Credit, so very little. They’re just pointing the credit at a different database.
So it would be paid only to those who qualify for Means Tested Pension Credit ?
That would certainly make sense, but I don't expect that would be very popular at all. Anything else would be rather more costly to administer. Do you know how much ?
She said that many of her constituents had complained that they don’t need this payment, and she’d look at if there was a way to easily means-test such payments.
That said, this winter could be horrific for energy bills.
My parents, who use it to book flight to come and see me for a few weeks somewhere warm, don’t need it this year or any year.
Glad to see she's really thought her proposal through.
I flagged as spam a clear breach of the number one rule of the comments (and the said post has now been deleted). Meanwhile, someone (I could guess who) has been marking me as spam and off topic all afternoon.
(Edit: including this one! They must really be obsessed with me, to carry on after a warning from @PBModerator...)
You OT'd me the other day when i replied to a thread about the remain/brexit tactics
Got a link? I don't recall that. Could have been a fat finger on my phone, if it was me.
Saw a breakfast clip of Zahawi explaining how he could accept a job from Boris one day and be telling him to go the next. He looked very annoyed about it, but it wasn't very convincing - basically that it was his duty to accept the job, and also his duty to tell Boris to go, even though that morning he had been doing the media round.
I flagged as spam a clear breach of the number one rule of the comments (and the said post has now been deleted). Meanwhile, someone (I could guess who) has been marking me as spam and off topic all afternoon.
(Edit: including this one! They must really be obsessed with me, to carry on after a warning from @PBModerator...)
You OT'd me the other day when i replied to a thread about the remain/brexit tactics
Got a link? I don't recall that. Could have been a fat finger on my phone, if it was me.
The Ukrainians have destroyed a rail bridge with three tons of explosives.
The bridge was *behind* Russian lines. Quite plucky. No pics of the bridge afterwards, but even if it is still standing, I reckon I wouldn't want to be the first to drive a train or tank across...
Mordaunt is a stronger candidate than Sunak and Badenoch is better than Truss
Sunak has big money backing and has been preparing for this for ages. He is the establishment candidate and enjoys a clear advantage with MPs. Truss is best placed to pick up votes from the right as the contest narrows. Both have had big jobs in Cabinet. Mordaunt looks best placed to beat Labour but lacks experience. She is something of a blank slate on which people are projecting whatever they want to see. That is even more true of Badenoch. A few weeks ago few had heard of her, let alone seen her as a serious contender for PM. This is not a vote for a LOTO but for a sitting PM. Badenoch would represent the ultimate Hail Mary pass. I think the Tories would be very brave to pick her, in both the literal and the Yes Minister meanings of the word.
And would be a big problem for Starmer and labour
Maybe, maybe not. If her lack of experience leads to her making loads of unforced errors then she could turn into a gift for Labour. Speaking as a Labour supporter I am not sure that any of Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt, Badenoch or Tugendhat are obviously better or worse for us. Braverman would probably be our ideal choice, but that's not going to happen, sadly.
When you are dealing with what has been termed as "the most sophisticated electorate in the world" (?), believe nothing or believe everything as a wise man once told me.
Nominations are not votes - you can nominate Candidate A and vote for Candidate B. If you're clever, you can be courted by Candidates A, B, C and D and vote for Candidate E.
The weight of numbers behind each candidate is a measure of illusion and delusion. Clearly, getting past the first hurdle means the eight are all serious players if not in terms of winning in terms of endorsement. Now, as we all know, even @Leon I suspect, there's no such thing as a free lunch.
If you nominate a candidate and that candidate wins, it's reasonable to suppose said victor will be magnanimous in victory and reward their backers accordingly. Of course, if the candidate isn't successful but pledges support to the eventual winner in good time, there are rewards to be had though the old adage of keeping your friends close and your enemies closer should never be forgotten in Cabinet formation.
Those who have been at the top for longest will have had longest to build networks of support within the Party and will be best placed (arguably) to reward their "friends" - this is why the likes of Sunak start with an advantage. It's not just being Chancellor - it's the control of the Treasury team and the money.
Osborne built up a formidable network of loyalists - much good it did him in the end but had events transpired otherwise it would likely have smoothed his eventual succession to David Cameron.
For the lower ranking Ministers, it's that thing you say, that policy you offer, that unexpected offer of supporters which propels you up the rankings and while that may not mean victory today, it likely means a place at the top table and a position of importance in the next contest.
Saw a breakfast clip of Zahawi explaining how he could accept a job from Boris one day and be telling him to go the next. He looked very annoyed about it, but it wasn't very convincing - basically that it was his duty to accept the job, and also his duty to tell Boris to go, even though that morning he had been doing the media round.
He’s only in there as some kind of hedge by the Borisovians if Truss self-combusts.
I flagged as spam a clear breach of the number one rule of the comments (and the said post has now been deleted). Meanwhile, someone (I could guess who) has been marking me as spam and off topic all afternoon.
(Edit: including this one! They must really be obsessed with me, to carry on after a warning from @PBModerator...)
You OT'd me the other day when i replied to a thread about the remain/brexit tactics
Got a link? I don't recall that. Could have been a fat finger on my phone, if it was me.
The Ukrainians have destroyed a rail bridge with three tons of explosives.
The bridge was *behind* Russian lines. Quite plucky. No pics of the bridge afterwards, but even if it is still standing, I reckon I wouldn't want to be the first to drive a train or tank across...
Saw a breakfast clip of Zahawi explaining how he could accept a job from Boris one day and be telling him to go the next. He looked very annoyed about it, but it wasn't very convincing - basically that it was his duty to accept the job, and also his duty to tell Boris to go, even though that morning he had been doing the media round.
I flagged as spam a clear breach of the number one rule of the comments (and the said post has now been deleted). Meanwhile, someone (I could guess who) has been marking me as spam and off topic all afternoon.
(Edit: including this one! They must really be obsessed with me, to carry on after a warning from @PBModerator...)
You OT'd me the other day when i replied to a thread about the remain/brexit tactics
Got a link? I don't recall that. Could have been a fat finger on my phone, if it was me.
Javid paying the price for quitting Cabinet twice perhaps.
The Saj fluffed his resignation statement. You can see the puzzlement flash across Boris's face as Javid misspeaks.
He seems quite a good bloke to me, but really? resigning once and then going back into that muppet show? I hold all the cabinet responsible for maintaining the worst PM in history in office. They knew and did nothing until it was too late. He and Sunak should be on the backbenches for at least a year.
The government have refused to allow a confidence motion? I thought that was up to the Speaker?
It's bizarre that it's only convention that governs this, and that the government are arbiters of whether there should be a vote on whether the House has confidence in it.
Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis
I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
What would be the cost of means testing the benefit ?
There’s already means-tested Pension Credit, so very little. They’re just pointing the credit at a different database.
So it would be paid only to those who qualify for Means Tested Pension Credit ?
That would certainly make sense, but I don't expect that would be very popular at all. Anything else would be rather more costly to administer. Do you know how much ?
She said that many of her constituents had complained that they don’t need this payment, and she’d look at if there ways to easily means-test such payments.
Which shows how little she knows about the real world - nothing is easy which is why you see departments using this data set as it's a decent proxy for what we really want.
She does have a degree in computing and data, and worked as an engineer before entering politics.
I’d trust Kemi way more than a PPE or law graduate, to actually take this stuff seriously.
The Ukrainians have destroyed a rail bridge with three tons of explosives.
The bridge was *behind* Russian lines. Quite plucky. No pics of the bridge afterwards, but even if it is still standing, I reckon I wouldn't want to be the first to drive a train or tank across...
The government have refused to allow a confidence motion? I thought that was up to the Speaker?
It's bizarre that it's only convention that governs this, and that the government are arbiters of whether there should be a vote on whether the House has confidence in it.
Unless I am mistaken it was not a motion of confidence in HMG.
The Ukrainians have destroyed a rail bridge with three tons of explosives.
The bridge was *behind* Russian lines. Quite plucky. No pics of the bridge afterwards, but even if it is still standing, I reckon I wouldn't want to be the first to drive a train or tank across...
I flagged as spam a clear breach of the number one rule of the comments (and the said post has now been deleted). Meanwhile, someone (I could guess who) has been marking me as spam and off topic all afternoon.
(Edit: including this one! They must really be obsessed with me, to carry on after a warning from @PBModerator...)
You OT'd me the other day when i replied to a thread about the remain/brexit tactics
Got a link? I don't recall that. Could have been a fat finger on my phone, if it was me.
Ex equalities minister says Government must focus on tackling inflation rather than devising ‘micro-policies’ to fix cost-of-living crisis
I watched her launch and she also hinted at means testing winter fuel payments.
Good. It’s supposed to be for those who can’t heat their homes, not those who want to book a holiday to get away from winter - like my parents.
What would be the cost of means testing the benefit ?
There’s already means-tested Pension Credit, so very little. They’re just pointing the credit at a different database.
So it would be paid only to those who qualify for Means Tested Pension Credit ?
That would certainly make sense, but I don't expect that would be very popular at all. Anything else would be rather more costly to administer. Do you know how much ?
She said that many of her constituents had complained that they don’t need this payment, and she’d look at if there ways to easily means-test such payments.
Which shows how little she knows about the real world - nothing is easy which is why you see departments using this data set as it's a decent proxy for what we really want.
She does have a degree in computing and data, and worked as an engineer before entering politics.
I’d trust Kemi way more than a PPE or law graduate, to actually take this stuff seriously.
Yes, she was making a general comment about the need to upgrade digital state capacity.
The Ukrainians have destroyed a rail bridge with three tons of explosives.
The bridge was *behind* Russian lines. Quite plucky. No pics of the bridge afterwards, but even if it is still standing, I reckon I wouldn't want to be the first to drive a train or tank across...
Just catching up on the earlier debate about the location for Parliament… surely it should be the City whose Governor barred Charles Stuart from entering and seizing the arsenal with which he would have defeated the Parliamentarians; it’s time for the rest of the country to pay its debt of gratitude to Hull
and there is a precedent for a similar motion being given priority (from when the Tories used a similar motion against Wlison).
We can read, Nick: it's the only one in eight hundred years of Parliamentary history that Labour have found to support their case, and the wording is still completely different. If Labour think it's "a similar motion", let them bring forward the 1965 wording and see who's ignoring conventions and precedents.
"... it's the only one in eight hundred years of Parliamentary history ..."
That of course is utter bollocks, as a quick visit to wiki would confirm:
it's the only one in eight hundred years of Parliamentary history that Labour have found to support their case
Feel free to tell me which of those votes of no confidence was worded in the same way as the current motion.
Don't be a dunce. Take a look through that list and you'll see many of the confidence votes were on uniquely worded motions; there is no set formula that has to be followed.
Mind you that was back when we had governments that had a shred of homour about them of course.
It has been gently but persistently raining here, about five miles north of Cheltenham, for the last hour. This is immensely pleasing for us gardeners, especially as it is so unexpected.
The reason it is unexpected is because it was not forecast, which is immensely pleasing to those of us whose complaints about weather forecasters are regularly dismissed, here and elsewhere.
The government have refused to allow a confidence motion? I thought that was up to the Speaker?
It's bizarre that it's only convention that governs this, and that the government are arbiters of whether there should be a vote on whether the House has confidence in it.
Labour haven't called a confidence motion, they've tried to be too clever by half, probably deliberately in order to get out of saying they'd call one.
A confidence motion has to be heard. Any other motion they pretend is a confidence motion, but isnt, does not.
The government have refused to allow a confidence motion? I thought that was up to the Speaker?
It's bizarre that it's only convention that governs this, and that the government are arbiters of whether there should be a vote on whether the House has confidence in it.
No, they've refused to give up government time for a motion which isn't a VONC.
It has been alleged (source Guido) that Rishi supporters (organised by Gavin Williamson) went to Hunt to get him over the line.
It would just be *delicious* if the final two is Sunakless. I mean you'd need a cup of tea and a cigarette after such news.
Williamson organising for Sunak is a sure sign Sunak is in trouble even if he wins.
I think even the fiercest Wavin Gilliamson critic would have to acknowledge that malevolent low cunning to secure appointments and titles (though usually for himself) is within his skill set.
Mordaunt is a stronger candidate than Sunak and Badenoch is better than Truss
Sunak has big money backing and has been preparing for this for ages. He is the establishment candidate and enjoys a clear advantage with MPs. Truss is best placed to pick up votes from the right as the contest narrows. Both have had big jobs in Cabinet. Mordaunt looks best placed to beat Labour but lacks experience. She is something of a blank slate on which people are projecting whatever they want to see. That is even more true of Badenoch. A few weeks ago few had heard of her, let alone seen her as a serious contender for PM. This is not a vote for a LOTO but for a sitting PM. Badenoch would represent the ultimate Hail Mary pass. I think the Tories would be very brave to pick her, in both the literal and the Yes Minister meanings of the word.
And would be a big problem for Starmer and labour
Maybe, maybe not. If her lack of experience leads to her making loads of unforced errors then she could turn into a gift for Labour. Speaking as a Labour supporter I am not sure that any of Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt, Badenoch or Tugendhat are obviously better or worse for us. Braverman would probably be our ideal choice, but that's not going to happen, sadly.
I agree about Braverman, but of course we view the success or otherwise from our own standpoint but it is clear that until a pm is appointed and a new cabinet the effect on the political scene cannot be predicted sensibly and why polls before the autumn are largely academic
Is there a reason why the MPs vote has to be done by next Thursday? Could they extend it a few days if necessary or have they all got their summer holidays booked from Saturday?
Is there a reason why the MPs vote has to be done by next Thursday? Could they extend it a few days if necessary or have they all got their summer holidays booked from Saturday?
and there is a precedent for a similar motion being given priority (from when the Tories used a similar motion against Wlison).
We can read, Nick: it's the only one in eight hundred years of Parliamentary history that Labour have found to support their case, and the wording is still completely different. If Labour think it's "a similar motion", let them bring forward the 1965 wording and see who's ignoring conventions and precedents.
"... it's the only one in eight hundred years of Parliamentary history ..."
That of course is utter bollocks, as a quick visit to wiki would confirm:
it's the only one in eight hundred years of Parliamentary history that Labour have found to support their case
Feel free to tell me which of those votes of no confidence was worded in the same way as the current motion.
Take a look through that list and you'll see many of the confidence votes were on uniquely worded motions; there is no set formula that has to be followed.
OK: so you can't find a precedent for a similar motion being given priority either.
. Speaking as a Labour supporter I am not sure that any of Sunak, Truss, Mordaunt, Badenoch or Tugendhat are obviously better or worse for us. Braverman would probably be our ideal choice, but that's not going to happen, sadly.
Surely Sunak's every "Anything But Tory" supporter's wet dream?
Rich (arguably more through marrying well than success in a real job), privately-educated, ex-non-dom, tax-dodging backstory representing a rich-git North Yorkshire Tory safe seat. Even Starmer could undermine everything Rishi says with a quick reference to the difference between the third overprivileged Tory PM in 6 years and the real world Keir grew up in.
By the next GE, Keir, helped by the LDs and the SNP, will have forced a civil war within the Tory party if Sunak gets to run it.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt might actually be able to display an alternative vision. Truss, of course: fuggedabouit.
63% of redwall voters say Rishi Sunak is 'out of touch' with working class people. Prepare for the Tories to become a much posher party again if he wins the leadership and becomes PM
63% of redwall voters say Rishi Sunak is 'out of touch' with working class people. Prepare for the Tories to become a much posher party again if he wins the leadership and becomes PM
Comments
This happened last time too but just a bit later. His colleagues avoided wasting his time.
One unintended consequence of removing it from wealthier beneficiaries would be to pull finding from a number of the regional Surviving Winter charities, e.g.
https://www.dorsetcommunityfoundation.org/appeals/surviving-winter/
That said, this winter could be horrific for energy bills.
My parents, who use it to book flight to come and see me for a few weeks somewhere warm, don’t need it this year or any year.
Until key backers for Garner (namely media mogul William Randolph Hurst who controlled California delegation, and Texas delegation led by Congressman Sam Rayburn) cut a deal with FDR that gave him the nomination with JNG as his VP running mate.
Incidentally, the leader of the CA delegation, who announced the switch in support from Garner to Roosevelt, was US Senator William Gibbs McAdoo, who had been Al Smith's bitter rival (all the way through 104 ballots) for 1924 Democratic nomination. Who clearly enjoyed stabbing Smith in the front - then twisting the knife.
Not up to it. Was never up to it.
See also Keir Starmer.
https://twitter.com/aaronbell4nul/status/1546858767484059649?s=21&t=qKIB8K1e_leGgrn2bLPoEw
The bridge was *behind* Russian lines. Quite plucky. No pics of the bridge afterwards, but even if it is still standing, I reckon I wouldn't want to be the first to drive a train or tank across...
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/vxewg5/ukrainian_forces_destroy_the_railway_bridge/
When you are dealing with what has been termed as "the most sophisticated electorate in the world" (?), believe nothing or believe everything as a wise man once told me.
Nominations are not votes - you can nominate Candidate A and vote for Candidate B. If you're clever, you can be courted by Candidates A, B, C and D and vote for Candidate E.
The weight of numbers behind each candidate is a measure of illusion and delusion. Clearly, getting past the first hurdle means the eight are all serious players if not in terms of winning in terms of endorsement. Now, as we all know, even @Leon I suspect, there's no such thing as a free lunch.
If you nominate a candidate and that candidate wins, it's reasonable to suppose said victor will be magnanimous in victory and reward their backers accordingly. Of course, if the candidate isn't successful but pledges support to the eventual winner in good time, there are rewards to be had though the old adage of keeping your friends close and your enemies closer should never be forgotten in Cabinet formation.
Those who have been at the top for longest will have had longest to build networks of support within the Party and will be best placed (arguably) to reward their "friends" - this is why the likes of Sunak start with an advantage. It's not just being Chancellor - it's the control of the Treasury team and the money.
Osborne built up a formidable network of loyalists - much good it did him in the end but had events transpired otherwise it would likely have smoothed his eventual succession to David Cameron.
For the lower ranking Ministers, it's that thing you say, that policy you offer, that unexpected offer of supporters which propels you up the rankings and while that may not mean victory today, it likely means a place at the top table and a position of importance in the next contest.
In to 12/13.5, 5th placed Tugendhat 17.5/22
Not great liquidity, though.
He's as two-faced as Sir Sidney Ruff-Diamond.
2.96 Rishi Sunak 33%
3.25 Penny Mordaunt 30%
4.7 Liz Truss 21%
14 Kemi Badenoch 7%
14 Tom Tugendhat 7%
80 Jeremy Hunt
90 Suella Braverman
100 Nadhim Zahawi
210 Dominic Raab
It would just be *delicious* if the final two is Sunakless. I mean you'd need a cup of tea and a cigarette after such news.
It's bizarre that it's only convention that governs this, and that the government are arbiters of whether there should be a vote on whether the House has confidence in it.
I’d trust Kemi way more than a PPE or law graduate, to actually take this stuff seriously.
You forgot about Zahawi.
Mind you that was back when we had governments that had a shred of homour about them of course.
It has been gently but persistently raining here, about five miles north of Cheltenham, for the last hour. This is immensely pleasing for us gardeners, especially as it is so unexpected.
The reason it is unexpected is because it was not forecast, which is immensely pleasing to those of us whose complaints about weather forecasters are regularly dismissed, here and elsewhere.
A confidence motion has to be heard. Any other motion they pretend is a confidence motion, but isnt, does not.
Rich (arguably more through marrying well than success in a real job), privately-educated, ex-non-dom, tax-dodging backstory representing a rich-git North Yorkshire Tory safe seat. Even Starmer could undermine everything Rishi says with a quick reference to the difference between the third overprivileged Tory PM in 6 years and the real world Keir grew up in.
By the next GE, Keir, helped by the LDs and the SNP, will have forced a civil war within the Tory party if Sunak gets to run it.
Badenoch, Tugendhat and Mordaunt might actually be able to display an alternative vision. Truss, of course: fuggedabouit.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1546856062845915140?s=20&t=DeFMRR65_wa_rRNK2W3L9A
I would be amazed if that is true