Labour 46% (–) Conservative 32% (-3) Reform UK 7% (+4) Liberal Democrat 10% (+2) Green 4% (–) Plaid Cymru 0% (-1) Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 26-27 June
The culture wars will surely win these back
Tory to Reform. Reform won't sit in all seats in an election as well.
Move half the Reform vote of 3.8% to Conservative and half the Green vote of 5% to Labour and this is what you get (with the new boundaries).
The 13 LDs on C&S would be handy.
Theyd have a couple SDLP who might take the whip too
I don't believe the LDs would go full frontal coalition again, but C&S might work, and yes the SDLP could take the whip.
I dont think the LDs would go into C and S, theyd say they will vote issue by issue. If Labs majority fell they would probably say theyd allow a QS to pass but retain the right to bring down the govt if they went astray. They wont get cabinet seats so why hitch yourself to a weak government?
If Sunak does implode during the MPs' phase of the contest, which is not at all impossible, who benefits? Javid, I suppose, assuming he gets on to the ballot, otherwise Hunt, but it's not obvious.
To be fair I’m pretty sure that the government is within their right to reject that wording. If the conditionality was removed though it would be fine. I might be wrong though.
TBF, as we discussed the other day almost any of the chimps at Corstorphine Zoo would do better in Scotland than the PM. So merely improving things isn't much of an aim.
Have the ScoTories come to any sort of collective viewpoint?
Edit: missed a bit; "Borders MP John Lamont said he would vote for International Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt while West Aberdeenshire MP Andrew Bowie confirmed he would support former Chancellor Rishi Sunak.
The remaining four, including Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross, have yet to endorse any of the candidates."
Has Ruth Davidson come out for any of the candidates? She might have some sway
Just brilliant - and these are really just the test images, to make sure everything is calibrated correctly. There will be an awful lot more to come from Webb in the future.
Well done to the huge team who spent over a decade designing and building the thing.
Over a decade? I think it was due to be working in 2007!
The JWST is massively over budget and late. Thanks to ESA, it should have a much longer lifespan than expected.
I heard an interview years back with an astronomer who did her doctoral thesis on something, and in it said that the JWST should be able to give more data to back up her thesis. It was now well over a decade later, and she was still waiting for the data...
As I understand it the James Webb is an IR telescope, so all these images are to an extent 'colourised'. No issue with that, but we should be aware of what is being done. This is not what the eye would see.
To be fair I’m pretty sure that the government is within their right to reject that wording. If the conditionality was removed though it would be fine. I might be wrong though.
LOL, the Opposition doesn’t even know how to table a vote of confidence in the government!
(Yes, the issue is the conditionality. There’s a fixed form of words for a confidence motion).
For @Leon - That twitter thread that was worrying you is getting a thorough pasting.
So, in a new installment of “garbage in, garbage out” epidemiology, someone is trying to model the odds of long covid by treating its occurrence at each infection as independent events with the same probability each time. 🤦 https://twitter.com/gro_tsen/status/1546615015465275393
"Garbage in, garbage out" is pretty standard. What makes this one really stand out to me, is that there is not "garbage in" element in the model. It's just pure, unadulterated "garbage out" ... https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1546656533982871552
The main issue is the assumption that reinfections have the same chance of giving Long Covid as original infections - and that is indicated to NOT be the case. Immunity (whether from vaccine or infection) reduces the chance of Long Covid.
To be fair I’m pretty sure that the government is within their right to reject that wording. If the conditionality was removed though it would be fine. I might be wrong though.
They can retable it as a standard VONC and they will get the debate.
The US and I think Switzerland set the “frontier” of productive possibility. Wealth is generated and it is then down to how you want to distribute it.
You then have Germany - Scandinavia - the Low Countries - and perhaps Northern Italy.
Britain as a whole is now down alongside Spain and the Baltics and will likely be overtaken by them in coming years.
The great mystery is why given the UK’s considerable advantages - English language; good universities; London’s position in the global economy; demography not as bad as some others - this has happened.
To put some figures on your insane hyperbole
GDP per capita
UK: $46,209
Spain: $26,238
Estonia: $21,421
Latvia: $16,406
(Source: Trading Economics)
And yet the median income figures for the UK and Spain appear quite close.
FFS get Badenoch on the ballot. She needs to be in the debates
She's only 3 public endorsements short, and some will be private. She won't have a problem getting nominated.
I'm wondering who will fall from the list for want of 20 nominations.
- I think Badenoch gets enough undecided, unannounced support as having done enough to deserve a run. - Zahawi won't particularly have such a 'get over the line' push - Hunt has experience that the ballot paper might look thin on otherwise, no matter how bad his ConHome match ups. Still useful if candidacies start imploding. - Braverman is dependent on whether the ERGish attention has wandered elsewhere - Javid is in trouble.
Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, Tugendhat, Badenoch and Hunt to make the start line?
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 32% (-3) Reform UK 7% (+4) Liberal Democrat 10% (+2) Green 4% (–) Plaid Cymru 0% (-1) Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 26-27 June
The culture wars will surely win these back
Tory to Reform. Reform won't sit in all seats in an election as well.
Move half the Reform vote of 3.8% to Conservative and half the Green vote of 5% to Labour and this is what you get (with the new boundaries).
The 13 LDs on C&S would be handy.
Theyd have a couple SDLP who might take the whip too
I don't believe the LDs would go full frontal coalition again, but C&S might work, and yes the SDLP could take the whip.
I dont think the LDs would go into C and S, theyd say they will vote issue by issue. If Labs majority fell they would probably say theyd allow a QS to pass but retain the right to bring down the govt if they went astray. They wont get cabinet seats so why hitch yourself to a weak government?
Mr. Walker, if that gets out in a verified way it may be the death knell for Sunak.
It's penny-wise and pound-foolish. One of the things the incumbent PM got right was full-blooded support for a democratic nation state attacked without justification by a bellicose neighbour. Supplying arms, ammunition, and training to Ukraine is good in both practical and moral terms.
I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.
I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.
Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.
I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.
I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.
Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.
1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two. 2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo) 3. No to more borrowing.
Anyone got anything else?
He’s an effective communicator with good “emotional intelligence” - unfortunately knowledge of his wealth appears to be outweighing that in the Red Wall.
I used to think him an effective communicator, until borrowing someone car for photo op and then not knowing how to pay for petrol with his card.
He’s clearly not put petrol in a car for decades. His family will have a driver for that.
Yes. It is an issue. I really do not want a PM who has never put petrol in his own car, because he is so insanely rich
For all his faults, Boris at least understood these things
Lol, still apologising for him. The man of the people that allowed his wife to spend absurd sums making No10 look like a tart's boudoir.
Leon, he was shit. Get with the herd!
He still is, and he's still there, which remains something of a concern.
FFS get Badenoch on the ballot. She needs to be in the debates
She's only 3 public endorsements short, and some will be private. She won't have a problem getting nominated.
I'm wondering who will fall from the list for want of 20 nominations.
- I think Badenoch gets enough undecided, unannounced support as having done enough to deserve a run. - Zahawi won't particularly have such a 'get over the line' push - Hunt has experience that the ballot paper might look thin on otherwise, no matter how bad his ConHome match ups. Still useful if candidacies start imploding. - Braverman is dependent on whether the ERGish attention has wandered elsewhere - Javid is in trouble.
Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, Tugendhat, Badenoch and Hunt to make the start line?
I believe it’s been announced that Hunt has made it meaning he has some private backers.
Javid and Braverman most at risk IMHO. I think Zahawi might just make it.
To be fair I’m pretty sure that the government is within their right to reject that wording. If the conditionality was removed though it would be fine. I might be wrong though.
LOL, the Opposition doesn’t even know how to table a vote of confidence in the government!
(Yes, the issue is the conditionality. There’s a fixed form of words for a confidence motion).
Yeah if they are going to table that sort of nonsense the govt might as well table a 'no confidence in the member for Holborn and St Pancras' motion for all the value it has
👀"Defence Secretary Ben Wallace...is believed to possess sufficient material to blow Sunak up over his attitude towards funding essential assistance to Ukraine."
I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.
I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.
Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.
I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.
I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.
Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.
1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two. 2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo) 3. No to more borrowing.
Anyone got anything else?
He’s an effective communicator with good “emotional intelligence” - unfortunately knowledge of his wealth appears to be outweighing that in the Red Wall.
I used to think him an effective communicator, until borrowing someone car for photo op and then not knowing how to pay for petrol with his card.
He’s clearly not put petrol in a car for decades. His family will have a driver for that.
Yes. It is an issue. I really do not want a PM who has never put petrol in his own car, because he is so insanely rich
For all his faults, Boris at least understood these things
Lol, still apologising for him. The man of the people that allowed his wife to spend absurd sums making No10 look like a tart's boudoir.
Leon, he was shit. Get with the herd!
He still is, and he's still there, which remains something of a concern.
I really cannot believe that Starmer has failed to put forward a legitimate vote of no confidence
The rumour is that Rishi has been arguing that Ukraine “can’t win”.
If that is true, Rishi isn't fit to be PM.
Johnson never was and that didn't bother you!
Because he was the best person for the job at the time, and he served his purpose and got it done.
Now he can be replaced. However dealing with Ukraine is one of the clearest crises of this moment, so having someone incapable of dealing with that would rule them out as being suitable just as Hunt being incapable of dealing with the Article 50 issue meant he was unsuitable for the circumstances.
I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.
I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.
Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.
I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.
I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.
Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
Undoubtedly the most urbane and competent on offer. They've had three years with a philistine in charge. It's now time for a change.
I was reading some info about these images earlier. Just mind blowing.
Perhaps the most important piccie was the most boring one: the chart showing the atmospheric composition of an exoplanet. I *think* it's been done before (from memory), but the JWST offers the potential of much more detail.
Imagine if we start seeing odd chemicals in atmosphere in an Earth-like planet, than on Earth are only produced by life. Or even industrial-level intelligent life...
Depends what one means by “can’t win”. They’re not getting Crimea, Luhansk or Donetsk back in a hurry, just as Cyprus isn’t getting Northern Cyprus back in a hurry, Korea isn’t getting North Korea back in a hurry, and the USA isn’t getting Loyalist North America back in a hurry.
The rumour is that Rishi has been arguing that Ukraine “can’t win”.
We don't know whether it's true, it could be that Rishi has been putting forwards the counter argument in Cabinet rather than specifically supporting said position.
If it is his true position then he won't make the final two.
👀"Defence Secretary Ben Wallace...is believed to possess sufficient material to blow Sunak up over his attitude towards funding essential assistance to Ukraine."
I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.
I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.
Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.
I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.
I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.
Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.
1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two. 2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo) 3. No to more borrowing.
Anyone got anything else?
He’s an effective communicator with good “emotional intelligence” - unfortunately knowledge of his wealth appears to be outweighing that in the Red Wall.
I used to think him an effective communicator, until borrowing someone car for photo op and then not knowing how to pay for petrol with his card.
He’s clearly not put petrol in a car for decades. His family will have a driver for that.
Yes. It is an issue. I really do not want a PM who has never put petrol in his own car, because he is so insanely rich
For all his faults, Boris at least understood these things
Lol, still apologising for him. The man of the people that allowed his wife to spend absurd sums making No10 look like a tart's boudoir.
Leon, he was shit. Get with the herd!
He still is, and he's still there, which remains something of a concern.
I really cannot believe that Starmer has failed to put forward a legitimate vote of no confidence
You couldn't make it up
I suspect the thinking was to make it easier for Tory rebels to vote for it by making it conditional. But it has backfired.
I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.
I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.
Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.
I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.
I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.
Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.
1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two. 2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo) 3. No to more borrowing.
Anyone got anything else?
He’s an effective communicator with good “emotional intelligence” - unfortunately knowledge of his wealth appears to be outweighing that in the Red Wall.
I used to think him an effective communicator, until borrowing someone car for photo op and then not knowing how to pay for petrol with his card.
He’s clearly not put petrol in a car for decades. His family will have a driver for that.
Yes. It is an issue. I really do not want a PM who has never put petrol in his own car, because he is so insanely rich
For all his faults, Boris at least understood these things
Lol, still apologising for him. The man of the people that allowed his wife to spend absurd sums making No10 look like a tart's boudoir.
Leon, he was shit. Get with the herd!
He still is, and he's still there, which remains something of a concern.
I really cannot believe that Starmer has failed to put forward a legitimate vote of no confidence
I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.
I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.
Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.
I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.
I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.
Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
Undoubtedly the most urbane and competent on offer. They've had three years with a philistine in charge. It's now time for a change.
Change for the right-hand man of the last two years, who’s overseen record borrowing, doesn’t know how to put petrol in a car, and has never associated with anyone who didn’t attend Davos? Oh, and who doesn’t want to keep arming Ukraine.
👀"Defence Secretary Ben Wallace...is believed to possess sufficient material to blow Sunak up over his attitude towards funding essential assistance to Ukraine."
For @Leon - That twitter thread that was worrying you is getting a thorough pasting.
So, in a new installment of “garbage in, garbage out” epidemiology, someone is trying to model the odds of long covid by treating its occurrence at each infection as independent events with the same probability each time. 🤦 https://twitter.com/gro_tsen/status/1546615015465275393
"Garbage in, garbage out" is pretty standard. What makes this one really stand out to me, is that there is not "garbage in" element in the model. It's just pure, unadulterated "garbage out" ... https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1546656533982871552
The main issue is the assumption that reinfections have the same chance of giving Long Covid as original infections - and that is indicated to NOT be the case. Immunity (whether from vaccine or infection) reduces the chance of Long Covid.
Yes I laughed when I saw the thread that had so alarmed our resident alarmist. Its not helped that 'long covid' has no real clinical definition - its a constellation of symptoms ranging from fatigue a fair while after the infection (pace @Foxy to people feeling essentially almost unable to walk a few yards. Its unclear what the cause is, and in reality will have multiple causes. Some will be classic post viral symptoms, others may well be FND. Helping people, whatever the cause, is crucial, but this idea that we were all rolling a dice like some stupid RPG and if we threw a six that was it, long covid for you, was always utter garbage.
I also have still not have covid. We are not ALL getting it every couple of months or so.
I love @Leon. He contributes a lot to PB, even if mainly travel reportage at the moment. What he is not, is a scientist, able to discriminate between bullshit and actual worrying data.
Told Jeremy Hunt has made it onto the ballot for the Tory leadership election
So looks like Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat & Hunt have enough support
We're waiting to hear on Kemi Badenoch, Nadhim Zahawi, Suella Braverman and Sajid Javid
I think someone mentioned on here that they had spoken with their MP who said Hunt had a bunch of backers waiting in the wings. Might be bad news for Tuggy.
I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.
I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.
Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.
I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.
I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.
Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
I was reading some info about these images earlier. Just mind blowing.
Perhaps the most important piccie was the most boring one: the chart showing the atmospheric composition of an exoplanet. I *think* it's been done before (from memory), but the JWST offers the potential of much more detail.
Imagine if we start seeing odd chemicals in atmosphere in an Earth-like planet, than on Earth are only produced by life. Or even industrial-level intelligent life...
Without coming over too Leonesque I'm certain we're eventually going to find the universe is actually teeming with "life" though it may not necessarily be "life" as we know it...
The rumour is that Rishi has been arguing that Ukraine “can’t win”.
If that is true, Rishi isn't fit to be PM.
Johnson never was and that didn't bother you!
Because he was the best person for the job at the time, and he served his purpose and got it done.
Now he can be replaced. However dealing with Ukraine is one of the clearest crises of this moment, so having someone incapable of dealing with that would rule them out as being suitable just as Hunt being incapable of dealing with the Article 50 issue meant he was unsuitable for the circumstances.
You are the arch-apologist for the worst, most dishonest and unfit PM in our history.
I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.
I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.
Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.
I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.
I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.
Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
The case for Rishi. As a serious answer.
1. Anyone but Truss if it’s those two in final two. 2. Won’t cut taxes until inflation under control (whatever under control means specifically, slashed to 4.4 but stuck like a bad record not under control imo) 3. No to more borrowing.
Anyone got anything else?
He’s an effective communicator with good “emotional intelligence” - unfortunately knowledge of his wealth appears to be outweighing that in the Red Wall.
I used to think him an effective communicator, until borrowing someone car for photo op and then not knowing how to pay for petrol with his card.
He’s clearly not put petrol in a car for decades. His family will have a driver for that.
Yes. It is an issue. I really do not want a PM who has never put petrol in his own car, because he is so insanely rich
For all his faults, Boris at least understood these things
Lol, still apologising for him. The man of the people that allowed his wife to spend absurd sums making No10 look like a tart's boudoir.
Leon, he was shit. Get with the herd!
He still is, and he's still there, which remains something of a concern.
I really cannot believe that Starmer has failed to put forward a legitimate vote of no confidence
That would explain it. It isn't a properly tabled VONC
On the one hand the government still looks a bit razzled. But if you are playing procedural games, which Labour were, you cannot object to your opponent playing the game back at you. It's not massive constitutional crisis when its all game playing.
The rumour is that Rishi has been arguing that Ukraine “can’t win”.
We don't know whether it's true, it could be that Rishi has been putting forwards the counter argument in Cabinet rather than specifically supporting said position.
If it is his true position then he won't make the final two.
If you’ve ever wondered just how misleading Fox News can be, watch what their viewers have been told about why Boris Johnson has resigned as Prime Minister:
FFS get Badenoch on the ballot. She needs to be in the debates
She's only 3 public endorsements short, and some will be private. She won't have a problem getting nominated.
I'm wondering who will fall from the list for want of 20 nominations.
- I think Badenoch gets enough undecided, unannounced support as having done enough to deserve a run. - Zahawi won't particularly have such a 'get over the line' push - Hunt has experience that the ballot paper might look thin on otherwise, no matter how bad his ConHome match ups. Still useful if candidacies start imploding. - Braverman is dependent on whether the ERGish attention has wandered elsewhere - Javid is in trouble.
Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, Tugendhat, Badenoch and Hunt to make the start line?
I believe it’s been announced that Hunt has made it meaning he has some private backers.
Javid and Braverman most at risk IMHO. I think Zahawi might just make it.
Poor Chishti has yet to get his first…
I am surprised at all of them struggling. 20 is not that tough, apart from Brave Chishti I thought all would get enough sympathy votes at least to go over the line (unlike Labour there is no particular danger in doing so).
For @Leon - That twitter thread that was worrying you is getting a thorough pasting.
So, in a new installment of “garbage in, garbage out” epidemiology, someone is trying to model the odds of long covid by treating its occurrence at each infection as independent events with the same probability each time. 🤦 https://twitter.com/gro_tsen/status/1546615015465275393
"Garbage in, garbage out" is pretty standard. What makes this one really stand out to me, is that there is not "garbage in" element in the model. It's just pure, unadulterated "garbage out" ... https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1546656533982871552
The main issue is the assumption that reinfections have the same chance of giving Long Covid as original infections - and that is indicated to NOT be the case. Immunity (whether from vaccine or infection) reduces the chance of Long Covid.
Yes I laughed when I saw the thread that had so alarmed our resident alarmist. Its not helped that 'long covid' has no real clinical definition - its a constellation of symptoms ranging from fatigue a fair while after the infection (pace @Foxy to people feeling essentially almost unable to walk a few yards. Its unclear what the cause is, and in reality will have multiple causes. Some will be classic post viral symptoms, others may well be FND. Helping people, whatever the cause, is crucial, but this idea that we were all rolling a dice like some stupid RPG and if we threw a six that was it, long covid for you, was always utter garbage.
I also have still not have covid. We are not ALL getting it every couple of months or so.
I love @Leon. He contributes a lot to PB, even if mainly travel reportage at the moment. What he is not, is a scientist, able to discriminate between bullshit and actual worrying data.
I'm starting to wonder if I have long Covid. Coughing like a good'un since Covid a couple of weeks back, absolutely knackered, no appetite, and when the JWST link was posted here, I spent 15 minutes debugging my headphone sound problem before I remembered the volume control.
It will be interesting to see who Wallace backs in the contest.
It's not really a question of winning for Ukraine but making sure they don't lose. The aim has to be to get Russia bogged down in a war and that coupled with the economic pressures strengthens Ukraine's position when they do finally negotiate.
We have to keep doing our bit for Ukraine, Russia cannot be allowed to win outright.
The Palace of Westminster is ugly as feck. Knock it down and build some trendy apartments by the river. With the proceeds we can build a new purpose-built facility up north.
Ugly? The Palace of Westminster is beautiful, like a homage to God. The most important building in the British isles.
Some of you clearly can’t handle this heat. 🫠
Neo-gothic monstrosity.
Give me the clean lines or art deco any day.
You are not playing serious in this discussion. Gothic is the epitome of style, think of the craftsmanship, think of the message it conveys.
The message is they had no ideas of their own and had to turn to a style from several hundred years earlier.
It is ghastly.
Do point me to a "genuinely new style"
Art deco
Art Deco is now over 100 years old.
The coming architecture will be very green. Things growing all over the place. Lots of harvesting sunlight built in. Maybe sand toilets rather than fresh water.
That would explain it. It isn't a properly tabled VONC
On the one hand the government still looks a bit razzled. But if you are playing procedural games, which Labour were, you cannot object to your opponent playing the game back at you.
It suggests the government was worried it might lose the vote as tabled. Running scared.
I was reading some info about these images earlier. Just mind blowing.
Perhaps the most important piccie was the most boring one: the chart showing the atmospheric composition of an exoplanet. I *think* it's been done before (from memory), but the JWST offers the potential of much more detail.
Imagine if we start seeing odd chemicals in atmosphere in an Earth-like planet, than on Earth are only produced by life. Or even industrial-level intelligent life...
Without coming over too Leonesque I'm certain we're eventually going to find the universe is actually teeming with "life" though it may not necessarily be "life" as we know it...
Its everywhere or its nowhere. I favour the former.
As I understand it the James Webb is an IR telescope, so all these images are to an extent 'colourised'. No issue with that, but we should be aware of what is being done. This is not what the eye would see.
That one is by NIRCam which goes from 0.6 microns up to 5 microns so it will grab a chunk of visible light but really what we're seeing is where those gases sit in the spectrum I guess as it also uses the mid IR detector.
For @Leon - That twitter thread that was worrying you is getting a thorough pasting.
So, in a new installment of “garbage in, garbage out” epidemiology, someone is trying to model the odds of long covid by treating its occurrence at each infection as independent events with the same probability each time. 🤦 https://twitter.com/gro_tsen/status/1546615015465275393
"Garbage in, garbage out" is pretty standard. What makes this one really stand out to me, is that there is not "garbage in" element in the model. It's just pure, unadulterated "garbage out" ... https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1546656533982871552
The main issue is the assumption that reinfections have the same chance of giving Long Covid as original infections - and that is indicated to NOT be the case. Immunity (whether from vaccine or infection) reduces the chance of Long Covid.
I'm amazed that people afford any credence to Twitter 'experts' on anything, particularly covid.
How the likes of Leon ever leave the house each day is beyond me.
For @Leon - That twitter thread that was worrying you is getting a thorough pasting.
So, in a new installment of “garbage in, garbage out” epidemiology, someone is trying to model the odds of long covid by treating its occurrence at each infection as independent events with the same probability each time. 🤦 https://twitter.com/gro_tsen/status/1546615015465275393
"Garbage in, garbage out" is pretty standard. What makes this one really stand out to me, is that there is not "garbage in" element in the model. It's just pure, unadulterated "garbage out" ... https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1546656533982871552
The main issue is the assumption that reinfections have the same chance of giving Long Covid as original infections - and that is indicated to NOT be the case. Immunity (whether from vaccine or infection) reduces the chance of Long Covid.
Yes I laughed when I saw the thread that had so alarmed our resident alarmist. Its not helped that 'long covid' has no real clinical definition - its a constellation of symptoms ranging from fatigue a fair while after the infection (pace @Foxy to people feeling essentially almost unable to walk a few yards. Its unclear what the cause is, and in reality will have multiple causes. Some will be classic post viral symptoms, others may well be FND. Helping people, whatever the cause, is crucial, but this idea that we were all rolling a dice like some stupid RPG and if we threw a six that was it, long covid for you, was always utter garbage.
I also have still not have covid. We are not ALL getting it every couple of months or so.
I love @Leon. He contributes a lot to PB, even if mainly travel reportage at the moment. What he is not, is a scientist, able to discriminate between bullshit and actual worrying data.
FFS get Badenoch on the ballot. She needs to be in the debates
She's only 3 public endorsements short, and some will be private. She won't have a problem getting nominated.
I'm wondering who will fall from the list for want of 20 nominations.
- I think Badenoch gets enough undecided, unannounced support as having done enough to deserve a run. - Zahawi won't particularly have such a 'get over the line' push - Hunt has experience that the ballot paper might look thin on otherwise, no matter how bad his ConHome match ups. Still useful if candidacies start imploding. - Braverman is dependent on whether the ERGish attention has wandered elsewhere - Javid is in trouble.
Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, Tugendhat, Badenoch and Hunt to make the start line?
I believe it’s been announced that Hunt has made it meaning he has some private backers.
Javid and Braverman most at risk IMHO. I think Zahawi might just make it.
Poor Chishti has yet to get his first…
I am surprised at all of them struggling. 20 is not that tough, apart from Brave Chishti I thought all would get enough sympathy votes at least to go over the line (unlike Labour there is no particular danger in doing so).
I think Braverman will get the ERG types who will give her the votes to get her across. They will want to have at least some representation even if nominal.
Whilst the Tories might be inclined to be complacent thanks to just how diverse the leadership race (of declared candidates at least) was, it does seem fair that commentators have been noting the implications. I liked Sunny Hundal's take.
Most importantly, I challenge the idea of "representation" entirely.
The idea a very diverse group of people from a minority can be "represented" by a few who share their skin colour or religion is wrong.
It restricts our own diversity. Everyone represents just themselves.
I really cannot believe that Starmer has failed to put forward a legitimate vote of no confidence
You couldn't make it up
Why is it not legitimate ?
6. A question of confidence in the Government, not the Prime Minister
A confidence motion, although obviously an important test of the authority of the Prime Minister, is normally seen as testing confidence in the Government as a whole and the consequence of a defeat could not simply involve the resignation of the Prime Minister alone. Before the vote of confidence in 1994, there was an attempt to decouple the issue of confidence in the Prime Minister from confidence in the Government as a whole but this was rejected by ministers. The motion tabled by Jeremy Corbyn, in December 2018, expressing a lack of confidence in the Prime Minister, which was never debated, also suggests such attempts are unlikely to be successful.
UK is well behind North West Europe and in a cohort with Slovenia, Spain, Italy and New Zealand. The latter’s figure is from 2014 so it likely has indeed now overtaken the UK.
Estonia, Japan and Czech are not too far behind.
Given what we know of various growth trajectories, I would not be surprised to see the UK overtaken by all of those except Japan and Italy by 2030.
And once again, the UK is the only one on that list - apart from Italy - to have such a regional divide, so living standards outside the South East may even be sitting alongside Poland, Portugal, Lithuania and Latvia.
👀"Defence Secretary Ben Wallace...is believed to possess sufficient material to blow Sunak up over his attitude towards funding essential assistance to Ukraine."
If true he should release it before the MP ballots, it shouldn’t wait until the membership vote.
I don’t know. I think we have to be very careful. I’m not on side of get Sunak because of inherent vice could happen. I’m on get Truss. If Truss is in final two I would prefer Sunak beats her, but i’m not sure Boris and Wallace would agree with me on it.
The Palace of Westminster is ugly as feck. Knock it down and build some trendy apartments by the river. With the proceeds we can build a new purpose-built facility up north.
Ugly? The Palace of Westminster is beautiful, like a homage to God. The most important building in the British isles.
Some of you clearly can’t handle this heat. 🫠
Neo-gothic monstrosity.
Give me the clean lines or art deco any day.
You are not playing serious in this discussion. Gothic is the epitome of style, think of the craftsmanship, think of the message it conveys.
The message is they had no ideas of their own and had to turn to a style from several hundred years earlier.
It is ghastly.
Do point me to a "genuinely new style"
While the subject is infinite, in the west until recently there were lots of varieties of the styles called Romanesque, Classical and Gothic. With smaller building being all sorts of 'vernacular'.
The 20th century has given us brutalism, functionalism and modernism as really new forms. Art Deco (the more the merrier please) focuses on fusing the traditions, and high levels of aspiring for beauty and quality of craftsmanship. Cheap it ain't.
The extent to which the new 20th forms focussed on the unbeautiful and the degrading of the human spirit beggars the imagination.
I'm not sure whether the Palace of Westminster isn't a lot too good for the current lot. Using it to rehouse the survivors from Grenfell Tower and other similar modernist projects might be a good idea.
The rumour is that Rishi has been arguing that Ukraine “can’t win”.
We don't know whether it's true, it could be that Rishi has been putting forwards the counter argument in Cabinet rather than specifically supporting said position.
If it is his true position then he won't make the final two.
It would certainly sound like the thing he would say. Let's negotiate, turn on the gas taps, helps with the CoL crisis and means less funding out.
Very true. Could you also please tell the lefties that are obsessed with them too.
Which lefties? Not heard this ever come up in the Labour Party I know
Last time I heard about it, it was generally left leaning (mainly middle class white people) demanding Cecil Rhodes statue be removed. They seemed quite interested in statues. Then there was that one in Bristol. I guess those were Tories that threw that one (of some slave trader everyone had forgotten about) in the harbour?
To be fair I’m pretty sure that the government is within their right to reject that wording. If the conditionality was removed though it would be fine. I might be wrong though.
I see that the Tour de France was disrupted by the eco-fascists today. French Tv absolutely has the right policy, no mention of what they are protesting nor any pictures of them. Instead showed lovely pictures of the mountains.
This is like when there was a streaker problem. When tv stopped showing them and "joining in with the fun", they have pretty much disappeared.
I was reading some info about these images earlier. Just mind blowing.
Perhaps the most important piccie was the most boring one: the chart showing the atmospheric composition of an exoplanet. I *think* it's been done before (from memory), but the JWST offers the potential of much more detail.
Imagine if we start seeing odd chemicals in atmosphere in an Earth-like planet, than on Earth are only produced by life. Or even industrial-level intelligent life...
Without coming over too Leonesque I'm certain we're eventually going to find the universe is actually teeming with "life" though it may not necessarily be "life" as we know it...
My own view is that it is infeasible that we are the only place where life has developed. It is exceptionalism of the most ridiculous kind. I also reckon we'll find live - whether independently-started or commonly seeded with Earth - elsewhere in the solar system.
For @Leon - That twitter thread that was worrying you is getting a thorough pasting.
So, in a new installment of “garbage in, garbage out” epidemiology, someone is trying to model the odds of long covid by treating its occurrence at each infection as independent events with the same probability each time. 🤦 https://twitter.com/gro_tsen/status/1546615015465275393
"Garbage in, garbage out" is pretty standard. What makes this one really stand out to me, is that there is not "garbage in" element in the model. It's just pure, unadulterated "garbage out" ... https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1546656533982871552
The main issue is the assumption that reinfections have the same chance of giving Long Covid as original infections - and that is indicated to NOT be the case. Immunity (whether from vaccine or infection) reduces the chance of Long Covid.
Yes I laughed when I saw the thread that had so alarmed our resident alarmist. Its not helped that 'long covid' has no real clinical definition - its a constellation of symptoms ranging from fatigue a fair while after the infection (pace @Foxy to people feeling essentially almost unable to walk a few yards. Its unclear what the cause is, and in reality will have multiple causes. Some will be classic post viral symptoms, others may well be FND. Helping people, whatever the cause, is crucial, but this idea that we were all rolling a dice like some stupid RPG and if we threw a six that was it, long covid for you, was always utter garbage.
I also have still not have covid. We are not ALL getting it every couple of months or so.
I love @Leon. He contributes a lot to PB, even if mainly travel reportage at the moment. What he is not, is a scientist, able to discriminate between bullshit and actual worrying data.
I'm starting to wonder if I have long Covid. Coughing like a good'un since Covid a couple of weeks back, absolutely knackered, no appetite, and when the JWST link was posted here, I spent 15 minutes debugging my headphone sound problem before I remembered the volume control.
Not long covid yet - the infection is too recent to count. Give it a few weeks and hopefully you will be back to your normal decrepit self!
I see 'old fashioned' and 'traditionalist' Rees-Mogg has been opining once again about how it is unjst to deny the PM a chance to be in the contest, alongside his belief in the personal mandate of Boris.
I get he is archaic in mannerisms, but he is actually one of the most radical Tories out there, traditionalists should be very worried by someone who does not care what the rules are on anything. He is a Boris fan, not a traditionalist.
Christ, even Guido notes this is in line with the contest rules.
Is Hunt worth a bet at 100/1 with Ladbrokes? If he's got into the ballot ahead of the others, it suggests he may have some hidden support that hasn't been picked up previously. Presumably he gets some transfers from TT and possibly one or two others. I realise it's a tall order and the membership would hate him but if RS becomes a cropper....
Whilst the Tories might be inclined to be complacent thanks to just how diverse the leadership race (of declared candidates at least) was, it does seem fair that commentators have been noting the implications. I liked Sunny Hundal's take.
Most importantly, I challenge the idea of "representation" entirely.
The idea a very diverse group of people from a minority can be "represented" by a few who share their skin colour or religion is wrong.
It restricts our own diversity. Everyone represents just themselves.
Silly piece, basically saying sunak etc can't really be Indian etc becos eevul Tories, just as Thatcher was not a woman. Everyone represents just themselves is also a pretty thick claim to be making when discussing elected MPs
I see that the Tour de France was disrupted by the eco-fascists today. French Tv absolutely has the right policy, no mention of what they are protesting nor any pictures of them. Instead showed lovely pictures of the mountains.
This is like when there was a streaker problem. When tv stopped showing them and "joining in with the fun", they have pretty much disappeared.
Same with the Silverstone track invaders. The marshals there, need to train the police how to deal with the soap-dodgers.
There we go, the 10-wicket defeat after only four hours. What a mess.
I was thinking about 50 over game in England. Most won't play any 50 over cricket at all these days (bar when they play a handful of games for England a year). Also, even the internationals, now they play so much T20 (and the likes of Stokes playing every variant) they are rested for them.
There is now only the 50 over cup, which is at the same time as the Hundred, so it is effectively a 2nd XI competition.
Very true. Could you also please tell the lefties that are obsessed with them too.
Which lefties? Not heard this ever come up in the Labour Party I know
Last time I heard about it, it was generally left leaning (mainly middle class white people) demanding Cecil Rhodes statue be removed. They seemed quite interested in statues. Then there was that one in Bristol. I guess those were Tories that threw that one (of some slave trader everyone had forgotten about) in the harbour?
Right wing mayor Sadiq Khan
eh?
See if the bolding helps make it clear exactly how we were being facetious.
Labour 46% (–) Conservative 32% (-3) Reform UK 7% (+4) Liberal Democrat 10% (+2) Green 4% (–) Plaid Cymru 0% (-1) Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 26-27 June
The culture wars will surely win these back
Tory to Reform. Reform won't sit in all seats in an election as well.
Move half the Reform vote of 3.8% to Conservative and half the Green vote of 5% to Labour and this is what you get (with the new boundaries).
The 13 LDs on C&S would be handy.
Theyd have a couple SDLP who might take the whip too
I don't believe the LDs would go full frontal coalition again, but C&S might work, and yes the SDLP could take the whip.
I dont think the LDs would go into C and S, theyd say they will vote issue by issue. If Labs majority fell they would probably say theyd allow a QS to pass but retain the right to bring down the govt if they went astray. They wont get cabinet seats so why hitch yourself to a weak government?
LibLab pact?
Hurt them badly in 79
Not that badly; the Jeremy Thorpe affair was far more of a problem.
Very true. Could you also please tell the lefties that are obsessed with them too.
Which lefties? Not heard this ever come up in the Labour Party I know
Last time I heard about it, it was generally left leaning (mainly middle class white people) demanding Cecil Rhodes statue be removed. They seemed quite interested in statues. Then there was that one in Bristol. I guess those were Tories that threw that one (of some slave trader everyone had forgotten about) in the harbour?
Right wing mayor Sadiq Khan
eh?
See if the bolding helps make it clear exactly how we were being facetious.
I misread your post as contradictory of the one you were quoting, apoligies if it was intended to be supportive. My brain's a bit frazzled because of my upcoming personal news...
I see 'old fashioned' and 'traditionalist' Rees-Mogg has been opining once again about how it is unjst to deny the PM a chance to be in the contest, alongside his belief in the personal mandate of Boris.
I get he is archaic in mannerisms, but he is actually one of the most radical Tories out there, traditionalists should be very worried by someone who does not care what the rules are on anything. He is a Boris fan, not a traditionalist.
Christ, even Guido notes this is in line with the contest rules.
I suspect Rees-Mogg is very traditionalist, in the sense that the upper-crust get so say how things function and the rest can just lump it.
Depends what one means by “can’t win”. They’re not getting Crimea, Luhansk or Donetsk back in a hurry, just as Cyprus isn’t getting Northern Cyprus back in a hurry, Korea isn’t getting North Korea back in a hurry, and the USA isn’t getting Loyalist North America back in a hurry.
Given the disparity in forces, and how things began, restricting losses would be a win for them. Not as much a win as we all hope of course.
There we go, the 10-wicket defeat after only four hours. What a mess.
I was thinking about 50 over game in England. Most won't play any 50 over cricket at all these days (bar when they play a handful of games for England a year). Also, even the internationals, now they play so much T20 (and the likes of Stokes playing every variant) they are rested for them.
There is now only the 50 over cup, which is at the same time as the Hundred, so it is effectively a 2nd XI competition.
I think you write this game off as one of those things. It happens. If we had bowled first it could have been the other way around.
I don't think a lack of 50 over cricket explains why we lost the top and middle order so early.
I feel a Rishi v Truss contest is looking depressingly more likely.
I tipped Mordaunt. She needs to pick up more of the ERG and perhaps continuity Boris vote.
Labour will want Truss, followed by Rishi, followed by Mordaunt. Badenoch impossible to judge; she could - like Boris - attract public support from unlikely places.
I think Mordaunt can overtake Truss and perhaps also Badenoch — (overtake Truss).
Me too, but I just fear it’s less likely than it was looking yesterday.
I genuinely think Mordaunt and perhaps even Badenoch would be better for the country than Rishi or Truss.
Agree. The other two (confess I like neither) will always to open to the question about why they continued to prop up the worst PM of all time.
There's a surprising amount of pb consensus over orders of preference from people who normally disagree.
Is there anyone here who actually supports Rishi, except as a means to avoid Truss?
Comments
SNP 45%
Lab 30%
Con 15%
LD 6%
Grn 2%
Ref 1%
oth (presumably Alba) 1%
SLab double the SCon vote? Sounds about right.
Ruth Says No!!
One last show.
The JWST is massively over budget and late. Thanks to ESA, it should have a much longer lifespan than expected.
I heard an interview years back with an astronomer who did her doctoral thesis on something, and in it said that the JWST should be able to give more data to back up her thesis. It was now well over a decade later, and she was still waiting for the data...
(Yes, the issue is the conditionality. There’s a fixed form of words for a confidence motion).
Chope for Truss.
Scholz (& Macron?) then..
- That twitter thread that was worrying you is getting a thorough pasting.
So, in a new installment of “garbage in, garbage out” epidemiology, someone is trying to model the odds of long covid by treating its occurrence at each infection as independent events with the same probability each time. 🤦
https://twitter.com/gro_tsen/status/1546615015465275393
"Why is this such a poor representation of what's actually happening with Long Covid?
Why is this an abuse of mathematics? Let's examine"
https://mobile.twitter.com/Brian_Orak/status/1546544245468794886
"Garbage in, garbage out" is pretty standard. What makes this one really stand out to me, is that there is not "garbage in" element in the model. It's just pure, unadulterated "garbage out" ...
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1546656533982871552
The main issue is the assumption that reinfections have the same chance of giving Long Covid as original infections - and that is indicated to NOT be the case. Immunity (whether from vaccine or infection) reduces the chance of Long Covid.
Starmer is being very badly advised.
They tried to be too clever and failed.
- I think Badenoch gets enough undecided, unannounced support as having done enough to deserve a run.
- Zahawi won't particularly have such a 'get over the line' push
- Hunt has experience that the ballot paper might look thin on otherwise, no matter how bad his ConHome match ups. Still useful if candidacies start imploding.
- Braverman is dependent on whether the ERGish attention has wandered elsewhere
- Javid is in trouble.
Sunak, Mordaunt, Truss, Tugendhat, Badenoch and Hunt to make the start line?
It's penny-wise and pound-foolish. One of the things the incumbent PM got right was full-blooded support for a democratic nation state attacked without justification by a bellicose neighbour. Supplying arms, ammunition, and training to Ukraine is good in both practical and moral terms.
That quote, if stood up by the SoS Defence, is going to knock him out.
Javid and Braverman most at risk IMHO. I think Zahawi might just make it.
Poor Chishti has yet to get his first…
It's essential that Russia is stopped now otherwise we will be back watching this story repeat itself in 5-8 years time once Russia has regrouped.
https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1546877346736644098
I would hope there would be someone arguing the counter point on all items.
You couldn't make it up
Now he can be replaced. However dealing with Ukraine is one of the clearest crises of this moment, so having someone incapable of dealing with that would rule them out as being suitable just as Hunt being incapable of dealing with the Article 50 issue meant he was unsuitable for the circumstances.
Imagine if we start seeing odd chemicals in atmosphere in an Earth-like planet, than on Earth are only produced by life. Or even industrial-level intelligent life...
If it is his true position then he won't make the final two.
I also have still not have covid. We are not ALL getting it every couple of months or so.
I love @Leon. He contributes a lot to PB, even if mainly travel reportage at the moment.
What he is not, is a scientist, able to discriminate between bullshit and actual worrying data.
He has resigned as leader of the party only.
I support him as a means to win my bet.
If you’ve ever wondered just how misleading Fox News can be, watch what their viewers have been told about why Boris Johnson has resigned as Prime Minister:
https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1546878911639871490
That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s
Government and deplores the Prime Minister’s conduct of the nation’s affairs. https://twitter.com/nmdacosta/status/1546879092238196736
It's not really a question of winning for Ukraine but making sure they don't lose. The aim has to be to get Russia bogged down in a war and that coupled with the economic pressures strengthens Ukraine's position when they do finally negotiate.
We have to keep doing our bit for Ukraine, Russia cannot be allowed to win outright.
Considering you were around when the 22 was actually formed 99 years ago, you tell us!
How the likes of Leon ever leave the house each day is beyond me.
Most importantly, I challenge the idea of "representation" entirely.
The idea a very diverse group of people from a minority can be "represented" by a few who share their skin colour or religion is wrong.
It restricts our own diversity. Everyone represents just themselves.
https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/status/1546857572032036865?cxt=HHwWgoC-sYSxxfcqAAAA
A confidence motion, although obviously an important test of the authority of the Prime Minister, is normally seen as testing confidence in the Government as a whole and the consequence of a defeat could not simply involve the resignation of the Prime Minister alone. Before the vote of confidence in 1994, there was an attempt to decouple the issue of confidence in the Prime Minister from confidence in the Government as a whole but this was rejected by ministers. The motion tabled by Jeremy Corbyn, in December 2018, expressing a lack of confidence in the Prime Minister, which was never debated, also suggests such attempts are unlikely to be successful.
But what do the House of Commons Library know?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Median_income
UK is well behind North West Europe and in a cohort with Slovenia, Spain, Italy and New Zealand. The latter’s figure is from 2014 so it likely has indeed now overtaken the UK.
Estonia, Japan and Czech are not too far behind.
Given what we know of various growth trajectories, I would not be surprised to see the UK overtaken by all of those except Japan and Italy by 2030.
And once again, the UK is the only one on that list - apart from Italy - to have such a regional divide, so living standards outside the South East may even be sitting alongside Poland, Portugal, Lithuania and Latvia.
The 20th century has given us brutalism, functionalism and modernism as really new forms. Art Deco (the more the merrier please) focuses on fusing the traditions, and high levels of aspiring for beauty and quality of craftsmanship. Cheap it ain't.
The extent to which the new 20th forms focussed on the unbeautiful and the degrading of the human spirit beggars the imagination.
I'm not sure whether the Palace of Westminster isn't a lot too good for the current lot. Using it to rehouse the survivors from Grenfell Tower and other similar modernist projects might be a good idea.
The man is a total CU Next Tuesday.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1546869065020481538
This is like when there was a streaker problem. When tv stopped showing them and "joining in with the fun", they have pretty much disappeared.
This recent theory/discovery makes it even more likely, as it simplifies the initial creation of RNA:
https://phys.org/news/2022-06-scientists-breakthrough-life-earthand-mars.html
The Fermi Paradox can just go and sit in the corner.
I get he is archaic in mannerisms, but he is actually one of the most radical Tories out there, traditionalists should be very worried by someone who does not care what the rules are on anything. He is a Boris fan, not a traditionalist.
Christ, even Guido notes this is in line with the contest rules.
Is Hunt worth a bet at 100/1 with Ladbrokes? If he's got into the ballot ahead of the others, it suggests he may have some hidden support that hasn't been picked up previously. Presumably he gets some transfers from TT and possibly one or two others. I realise it's a tall order and the membership would hate him but if RS becomes a cropper....
3 Rishi Sunak 33%
3.35 Penny Mordaunt 29%
4.4 Liz Truss 22%
17.5 Tom Tugendhat 5%
18 Kemi Badenoch 5%
65 Jeremy Hunt
65 Nadhim Zahawi
110 Dominic Raab
150 Sajid Javid
150 Suella Braverman
ETA here are the prices to make the final two, in case you want a last minute punt:-
1.12 Rishi Sunak 89%
1.79 Penny Mordaunt 55%
2.78 Liz Truss 35%
4.5 Tom Tugendhat 22%
7.6 Kemi Badenoch 13%
20 Jeremy Hunt 5%
21 Suella Braverman 4%
22 Nadhim Zahawi 4%
25 Sajid Javid 4%
There is now only the 50 over cup, which is at the same time as the Hundred, so it is effectively a 2nd XI competition.
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1546885857977765888
No - while the wording may be unconventional that's only because of a tautology, presumably for emphasis.
Everything after 'HMG' in the text adds, and changes, nothing to its content. A 'government' and its PM are inseparable.
It is very much the traditional confidence vote.
Now we just have to jump through all of SFE's hoops to pay for it!
I don't think a lack of 50 over cricket explains why we lost the top and middle order so early.