Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that the turnout is large

1246

Comments

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    You really haven't got the hang of celtic voting.

    I'll put you down as a NO :-)
    I hate to think what Rangers voting is ...

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    JBriskin said:

    BANG - and the #indyref vote bet is done-

    Inspired by a mini-vacation in Royal Deeside Mr and Ms Briskin have gone for-

    100 quid at evens (ish) at Yes 45 - 50

    NO FOR THE WIN!!!!!!

    100 quid down the drain Briskin, what a donkey
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    *tea drinking intensifies*
    Aren't you in SF?

    Drinking tea at 1 in the afternoon...
  • DavidL said:

    I have been door knocking etc all day and have to emphasise that I do not have access to inside info only my own perceptions and some gossip. Anyone betting money on that does so at their own risk.

    Having said that I think turnout will be higher than in a GE but 90%+ is ridiculous and will not happen unless Dundee is seriously atypical.

    BT volunteers think they have won. Not by much but there is an air of confidence.

    Labour think they have won Glasgow. The gap has definitely closed there but they are pretty confident it still exists.

    Hard national figures seem non existent.
    You've done a terrific job David - it's almost time to get yourself home for a large mug of cocoa, or whatever.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    malcolmg said:

    Imagine if this happened in the US. MT @moyesy A polling station in Falkirk has already closed because it's had 100% turnout #indyref

    Just imagine if it was true. Gullible turnip.
  • Howard said:

    I have never known law officers to prosecute for that.
    Word on the street is that there are going to be a substantial number of prosecutions because of bogus voter registrations based upon 2nd home ownership (by people not otherwise normally resident in Scotland). I am aware of a number of active cases in a relatively small section of the West Highlands alone.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,305
    kle4 said:

    Stunned realization he's achieved his life's endeavour will do that to a man, sadly.
    Probably not this one - though it might make a caption contest.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status
    /512692063792418817/photo/1
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    malcolmg said:

    100 quid down the drain Briskin, what a donkey
    2 or 3 bottles of Champers at the bar for lucky (apparently, currently grumpy) Ms Briskin, Malky!!!!!!

  • Mr. Saddened, I read elsewhere a polling station or two had closed due to 100% turnout.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    Carnyx said:

    I hate to think what Rangers voting is ...

    ask malcolmG - more NOs than Ian Paisley
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,078
    JBriskin said:

    BANG - and the #indyref vote bet is done-

    Inspired by a mini-vacation in Royal Deeside Mr and Ms Briskin have gone for-

    100 quid at evens (ish) at Yes 45 - 50

    NO FOR THE WIN!!!!!!

    Looks like a solid bet...
  • Word on the street is that there are going to be a substantial number of prosecutions because of bogus voter registrations based upon 2nd home ownership (by people not otherwise normally resident in Scotland). I am aware of a number of active cases in a relatively small section of the West Highlands alone.
    Seems a bit harsh considering the MPs weren't prosecuted for pretending their 2nd home was their main residence to get thousands of pounds in expenses.

    I wonder if the fact that they would probably be voting no has motivated this crackdown.
  • malcolmg said:

    100 quid down the drain Briskin, what a donkey
    Shhhhhhh! ;)
  • SeanT said:

    Surely not. Trading doesn't stop for by-elections etc. It carries on until the result is declared. not sure how you could legally stop it, anyway.
    Thanks - I am not familiar with these things. I guess then the odds will respond and change rapidly after 10.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    JBriskin said:

    2 or 3 bottles of Champers at the bar for lucky (apparently, currently grumpy) Ms Briskin, Malky!!!!!!

    council juice for you tomorrow Briskin
  • Howard said:

    Does trading stop at 10pm Sean?
    Trading on all Betfair's markets is 24/7 until the outcome is known (or voided, etc.)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010
    YES on the drift.

    I'm calling it for No.
  • Yes up to 6.2
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    SeanT said:

    Also completely untrue, and denied by the polling station itself.

    Apparently it is illegal for a polling station to close early, even if they do reach "100%" (however that is defined).
    Doh you are kidding
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    YES moving out...

    Wind of a poll?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Happy with my predictions of 42-58
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    For a bit of fun I am prepared to lay EVEN money that YES does not go lower than 4.5 again

    First three respondents can have a tenner
  • I am drinking Champers whether it goes the way I want or not!!!
  • It has come down to a contest between hope and fear.

    If hope wins then it will be YES, if fear then it will be NO.

    If its YES then the Scots deserve to be treated with respect and a mutually beneficial settlement agreed.

    If its NO then the Scots deserve to be treated with contempt and ground down politically and economically.

    And am I the only person who will be watching Spartacus: War Of The Dammed at 10pm rather than looking for Scottish exit polls ?
  • Where is it on the drift?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2014
    The 45-50% band on betfair is pretty much a direct bet on the accuracy of the pollsters.

    If you think there's a greater than 50% chance the polls are within 2.5% of the final result, back it, if you think they're more likely than not to be more than 2.5% out, lay it.

    My hunch is to lay, yet statistically with MOE etc, I'd be stupid not to back.

    It's going to be fascinating....
  • Seems a bit harsh considering the MPs weren't prosecuted for pretending their 2nd home was their main residence to get thousands of pounds in expenses.

    I wonder if the fact that they would probably be voting no has motivated this crackdown.
    2 wrongs do not make a right.

    Just because Alistair Darling got caught but let off by resigning from the Faculty of Advocates does not protect ordinary people from harsh prosecution. I have no idea if they are yes or no voters.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited September 2014
    @Alanbrooke and @malcolmg

    Actually, now I look at the issue, I must have missed this. The samples must be rather small for the smaller clubs, but there must be a fair sample for Rangers and Celtic. Just a bit surprising if it is true.

    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/old-firm-united-both-celtic-3598872

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Ave it says:

    Yes 44% No 56%!!!!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    My polling station 57.1% turnout. Can't see why it would be seriously atypical. Voting stopped at lunchtime.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    Richard very true, if NO Scotland should be gutted , it would be an ex country full of wankers and deserve all it got.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    Betfair just jumped

    Yes 6.2
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Maddocio said:

    If Stuart Dickson really wants a yes vote then why the hell is he dicking around on political betting.com while the polls are still open?

    Not much of a GOTV operation in Uppsala
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    Howard said:

    I am drinking Champers whether it goes the way I want or not!!!

    Spot on Howard!!!

    When does Sky news start??? Everton are still on (3-0)
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    "Word on the street is that there are going to be a substantial number of prosecutions because of bogus voter registrations based upon 2nd home ownership (by people not otherwise normally resident in Scotland). I am aware of a number of active cases in a relatively small section of the West Highlands alone."

    Excellent. I don't much like my acquaintance anyhow. It's good to know Dickson is on the case.

    And, also, I think she may voted Yes. At least, she is an ardent Scottish patriot.

    But, she is also very concerned about taxes going up, so she may have voted No.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,010
    DavidL said:

    My polling station 57.1% turnout. Can't see why it would be seriously atypical. Voting stopped at lunchtime.

    o_O !
  • DavidL said:

    I have been door knocking etc all day and have to emphasise that I do not have access to inside info only my own perceptions and some gossip. Anyone betting money on that does so at their own risk.

    Having said that I think turnout will be higher than in a GE but 90%+ is ridiculous and will not happen unless Dundee is seriously atypical.

    BT volunteers think they have won. Not by much but there is an air of confidence.

    Labour think they have won Glasgow. The gap has definitely closed there but they are pretty confident it still exists.

    Hard national figures seem non existent.
    Thank you for all your work. I sincerely hope it has not been in vain.
  • Six minutes to go, shame there are no exit polls. Instead we have to make do with the likes of Kevin Maguire.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756

    It has come down to a contest between hope and fear.

    If hope wins then it will be YES, if fear then it will be NO.

    If its YES then the Scots deserve to be treated with respect and a mutually beneficial settlement agreed.

    If its NO then the Scots deserve to be treated with contempt and ground down politically and economically.

    And am I the only person who will be watching Spartacus: War Of The Dammed at 10pm rather than looking for Scottish exit polls ?

    sorry AR rare we disagree, but if it's yes scots deserve to be treated with contempt since they're thick and all their daughters need a taxi drive in rotherham.

    #toostupid
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ditto
    viewcode said:

    Amen.

  • Looks like the referendum is invalid and will have to be re run as part of Scotland was left out. If the rerun produces a Yes Labour will be looking for a new leader in 2016.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2760467/Doncaster-technically-Scotland-signed-900-years-ago-never-formally-given-back.html

  • Do we all sing Auld Lang Syne at 10pm?
  • Charles said:

    If they are more generous on welfare, and have a fixed budget, won't that just mean people move fom England to Scotland to claim benefits?
    From Previous Thread.

    Possibly but given the SNP's track record on Tuition Fees it's quite possible they would devise some sort of discriminatory method of denying the migrants from the south from getting any advantage. How that would then play with the EU would be interesting
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    DavidL said:

    My polling station 57.1% turnout. Can't see why it would be seriously atypical. Voting stopped at lunchtime.

    Wow. Kay Burley and the Sky crew are still jabbering on about a "huge" turnout though.
  • It has come down to a contest between hope and fear.

    If hope wins then it will be YES, if fear then it will be NO.

    If its YES then the Scots deserve to be treated with respect and a mutually beneficial settlement agreed.

    If its NO then the Scots deserve to be treated with contempt and ground down politically and economically.

    And am I the only person who will be watching Spartacus: War Of The Dammed at 10pm rather than looking for Scottish exit polls ?

    There are no exit polls.
  • Mr. Putney, isn't YouGov doing one?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    malcolmg said:

    Richard very true, if NO Scotland should be gutted , it would be an ex country full of wankers and deserve all it got.

    jesus malc when it comes to wanking scots are looking drained.
  • Charles said:

    Not much of a GOTV operation in Uppsala
    Shocked he's not in Scotland, it's not like they announced the referendum date last week. Plastic nat
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,765
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead down one to two points: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,078
    YouGov daily poll anyone?

    (I'll get my coat)
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,569
    Popcorn at the ready for a long night ahead.

    I guess my main hope is that it's decisive either way - uniting Scotland in the coming months might be far harder than campaigning either way, and a clear cut result might make it that bit easier.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead down one to two points: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%​
  • DavidL said:

    My polling station 57.1% turnout. Can't see why it would be seriously atypical. Voting stopped at lunchtime.

    Presumably plus postals?
  • As I understand we're getting an exit poll that isn't an exit poll.

    Reportedly YouGov have polled people today, on how they intended to vote.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617


    Do we all sing Auld Lang Syne at 10pm?

    Freedom come all ye, and A man's a man for a that, I would hope.

    Scots wha hae is strictly for the No side to sing, as it is about Bannockburn, which they love.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    Bed for me soon off on hols tomorrow
  • Claims that some polling stations in Glasgow apparently as high as 70% for yes, asking how they voted after the event I assume
  • Mr. Eagles, an entry poll? Any ETA?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380


    Do we all sing Auld Lang Syne at 10pm?

    I'll stick it on Youtube in 2 mins!!!!!!!! (i.e 10pm)
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Anyway in the important news Everton have just banged in a fourth :-)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Tonights YG LAB 333 CON 272 LD 18 Other 27

    Ed is Crap is PM
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    murali_s said:

    YouGov daily poll anyone?

    (I'll get my coat)

    I was rather hoping for some local council by elections...
  • If it is a Yes who is going to volunteer to recalculate the polls without the Scottish share of the vote?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    Carnyx said:

    Freedom come all ye, and A man's a man for a that, I would hope.

    Scots wha hae is strictly for the No side to sing, as it is about Bannockburn, which they love.

    yeah progressive scotland

    #quotingfreemasons
  • Well, this is it everyone..
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited September 2014
    O/T
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead down one to two points: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%​
  • YouGov ‏@YouGov 20s

    YouGov will announce its final #IndyRef prediction at 22:30, based on recontacting voters today after they voted
  • Here we go.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    jimmyczz said:

    Claims that some polling stations in Glasgow apparently as high as 70% for yes, asking how they voted after the event I assume

    I spoke to one person who had voted NO today, my English son-in -law and he nearly went YES.
  • DavidL said:

    My polling station 57.1% turnout. Can't see why it would be seriously atypical. Voting stopped at lunchtime.

    That's in Dundee, iirc? Which is said to be a YES area?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Is there a frickin' exit poll , or not?

    Anyone know?
  • Looks like the referendum is invalid and will have to be re run as part of Scotland was left out. If the rerun produces a Yes Labour will be looking for a new leader in 2016.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2760467/Doncaster-technically-Scotland-signed-900-years-ago-never-formally-given-back.html

    That's brilliant!

    Does it mean we can get hope to get rid of Ed Miliband as well as Gordon Brown, assuming the Scots have done the decent thing?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    yeah progressive scotland

    #quotingfreemasons
    Actually, the Graun is reporting a capella choir outside Holyrood. No idea what they are singing though!

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Ok - we know that no has won!

    We can withdraw the extra benefits now!!!!
  • SeanT said:

    malcolm cameron retweeted
    john drummond ‏@benarty 42m
    Kinross turnout 92%

    There's a big RAF base there; can't believe they'll have voted yes. Polls are closed!
  • The £ has really spiked upwards in the last 15 minutes.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    Howard said:

    That's in Dundee, iirc? Which is said to be a YES area?
    NO did not turn up
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    To give myself an idea to compare with, I dug out my results sheet from the 1997 Devolution referendum, and the times of declaration are given as follows:

    00:41 Clackmannan
    00:50 South Lanarkshire
    01:49 West Lothian
    01:54 Orkney
    01:59 Renfrewshire
    02:11 Western Isles
    02:15 Moray
    02:20 Dundee
    02:27 East Renfrewshire
    02:31 South Ayrshire
    02:37 East Lothian
    02:45 Dumfries & Galloway
    02:53 Falkirk
    02:57 Stirling
    03:02 Perth & Kinross
    03:05 Edinburgh
    03:09 Midlothian
    03:13 Shetland
    03:17 West Dumbartonshire
    03:22 Inverclyde
    03:27 Angus
    03:32 Glasgow
    03:36 Fife
    03:40 Borders
    03:46 East Ayrshire
    03:50 North Ayrshire
    04:08 North Lanarkshire
    04:13 Aberdeen
    04:17 East Dumbartonshire
    04:21 Aberdeenshire
    04:27 Argyll & Bute
    05:47 Highland
  • "ouGov will announce its final #IndyRef prediction at 22:30, based on recontacting voters today after they voted"

    EEk. I still predict 51% yes.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,756
    Carnyx said:

    Actually, the Graun is reporting a capella choir outside Holyrood. No idea what they are singing though!

    Schottland uber alles ?
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    malcolmg said:

    I spoke to one person who had voted NO today, my English son-in -law and he nearly went YES.
    English aren't allowed to vote in this election!!!!!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    steve richards @steverichards14

    If Scotland votes 'no' with devo max there will be the 'English question' to answer. I expect the row over England to begin around 7am

  • Why is there no exit poll, by the way?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Thank God it is over
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644



    You've done a terrific job David - it's almost time to get yourself home for a large mug of cocoa, or whatever.

    Hear hear! Quite apart from the suspense...did you enjoy it a bit too?

  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    I hope they don't go, they would have staggering levels of unemployment and no help from anyone. How can they not know?
  • There's a big RAF base there; can't believe they'll have voted yes. Polls are closed!
    No that's Kinloss and it's closed.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    In other news...

    "Security forces in Australia have prevented an alleged Islamic State plot to carry out a filmed beheading of a random person in Sydney “within days” as part of a series of gruesome public executions. "

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/11103346/Australia-foils-Islamic-State-terror-plot-to-commit-Lee-Rigby-style-murders.html
  • FIRST post after the polls close..... Oh b*gg*r
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923
    JBriskin said:

    English aren't allowed to vote in this election!!!!!
    Mr Briskin , he resides in God's country having married my daughter. To be fair so do his family who are sure to be No's but in Australia so hopefully did not vote.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Michael Fabricant ✔ @Mike_Fabricant

    Whether it is No or Yes, and I think it will be No, we need a new deal for the UK and a new Act of Union with clear powers for each nation

  • There's a big RAF base there; can't believe they'll have voted yes. Polls are closed!
    No, that's Kinloss, on the Moray firth. Now a barracks, not an RAF base by the way.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,286

    Thank God it is over

    Moment of truth. Anxious!
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited September 2014
    Howard said:

    "ouGov will announce its final #IndyRef prediction at 22:30, based on recontacting voters today after they voted"

    EEk. I still predict 51% yes.

    Ah ok, that answers my question about benchmarks and weighting. The key thing then to look for is any polling day movement.

    It does still beg the question about how exactly they are contacting? Landlines? Really? Young people generally don't have landlines these days. Or is it mobiles? Or online?

    Just having a wobble as to whether pollsters have really switched on to the changing world of communications.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,923

    No that's Kinloss and it's closed.

    Another union benefit
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Chris Green ✔ @cghgreen

    YouGov poll conducted AFTER people voted will be released at 10.30pm, it says #IndyRef

This discussion has been closed.