Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that the turnout is large

12346»

Comments

  • Looks like not enough young men went out to vote for yes to win. Most yes voters are happy with a close loss. This will ensure the devomax they wanted. In Glasgow the vote went down old firm lines. I have not met a Ctic no voter or a rangers yes voter.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031

    @numbertwelve Hasn't Salmond said he'll resign if there is a NO victory?

    One can hope.
  • JackW said:

    SkyNews "Optimistic noises coming from Westminster ministers"

    As others have already said, nice to see you back, Jack. Hope everything's great, and that your ARSE is in full working order.
  • mjtmjt Posts: 33
    Yes drifting like the proverbial.

    Unsure how anyone can have the information so soon to shift the odds so decisively - Betfair herding perhaps?
  • Howard said:

    What are they going to talk about until the results come in?

    How WONDERFUL the engagement is. Particularly Brian Taylor, who will be very poetic.

    For five bloody hours??!!

    There'll be a recap of the campaign.

    Then a piece on the history of Scotland/the Union.

    Then another recap.

    Then an insightful visit to a Glasgow chippy.

    Then a discussion on the opinion polls.

    Then some stupid graphics from Jeremy Vine.

    Then another recap.

    Then a piece of Robbie Burns.

    And a final recap.


    ... All punctuated, of course, with lots and lots of Nick Robinson and Brian Taylor.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    SeanT said:

    Aaargh

    Betfair coming in again

    Calm down, what you should do is, compare it to the price 24 hours ago
    23 month trend is what its all about ask Mr X
  • #BREAKING:Latest YouGov poll suggests Scottish Referendum exit poll results are 54% No, 46% Yes. Counting underway. No results expected soon
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2014
    Whatever happens, UKIP marches on. This Scottish vote has been a real distraction from the main political battle that will reshape England.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    Will be happy enough if that's right.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    TY TSE - in line with Ave it 44-56
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Yougov 54 No 46 Yes
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Latest YouGov poll suggests Scottish Referendum exit poll results are 54% No, 46% Yes. Counting underway. No results expected soon

    Mike Smithson retweeted
    Jon Haworth ‏@JonHaworthSky 4m
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Looks like not enough young men went out to vote for yes to win. Most yes voters are happy with a close loss. This will ensure the devomax they wanted. In Glasgow the vote went down old firm lines. I have not met a Ctic no voter or a rangers yes voter.

    It would be funny if Celtic vs Salzburg on telly was the difference. Bread and circuses!
  • Right, I just wanted to see the YouGov. I'm off, though I may check the TV coverage during the night/early morning later.

    Goodnight, fellow Britons.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    @numbertwelve Hasn't Salmond said he'll resign if there is a NO victory?

    I remember he said he will resign and disband the SNP if its a YES vote (desperate stuff).
  • #BREAKING:Latest YouGov poll suggests Scottish Referendum exit poll results are 54% No, 46% Yes. Counting underway. No results expected soon

    And then there's the postal votes.
  • mjtmjt Posts: 33
    Looks like it's going to be decisive.

    Financially it's a win but i'd have rather seen Yes prevail and swallow the loss.

    Pffft.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Looks like not enough young men went out to vote for yes to win. Most yes voters are happy with a close loss. This will ensure the devomax they wanted. In Glasgow the vote went down old firm lines. I have not met a Ctic no voter or a rangers yes voter.

    It would be funny if Celtic vs Salzburg on telly was the difference. Bread and circuses!
    Don't be stupid , it was 2 hours out of a 15 hour window
  • Betfair 11 now.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031

    . No results expected soon

    I see what you did there ;)

  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380
    edited September 2014
    Pong said:

    I Just LAID 95%+ turnout at 5/2

    Astonishing.

    edit: for a substantial amount, too!

    I'm probably getting this all wrong - number/drunkness and all that - and Ms Briskin seems very grumpy - But

    That looks amazingly good to me!!!!!!

  • MikeK said:

    Whatever happens, UKIP marches on. This Scottish vote has been a real distraction from the main political battle that will reshape England.

    It'll have to learn how to fight a ground war first...

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    MikeK said:

    Whatever happens, UKIP marches on. This Scottish vote has been a real distraction from the main political battle that will reshape England.

    which one's that ? Must have missed it.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MikeK said:

    Whatever happens, UKIP marches on. This Scottish vote has been a real distraction from the main political battle that will reshape England.

    Front of the mail should help.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited September 2014
    That's presumably against YouGov's same sample earlier in the week of No 52, Yes 48.. a small but probably significant late shift.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    betfair out to 11
  • SeanT said:

    I think that's almost sealed it. Unless the postals are massively YES??

    The Editor of the Sunday Herald tweeted earlier that the postal votes were breaking strongly to YES.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Betfair - Yes = 9
  • Scotland’s final referendum result now looks likely to come in at 54% for No, 46% for Yes. Confirmation is expected at around breakfast time.

    The Sun’s pollsters surveyed almost 2,000 Scots after they had been to the polling stations, and detected a small defection from Yes to No - doubling the unionists’ four point lead on the eve of the historic vote on Wednesday night.
  • £ rockets to 164.25
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    Is the ARSE going to be proved infallible?
  • (Disenfranchised) Scots work colleague wants Yes so as to inject a dose of the cold light of economic reality to our Caledonian chums. Reckons it will swing them rightwards
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    SeanT said:

    I think that's almost sealed it. Unless the postals are massively YES??

    Why would they be? Oldies are heavily in favour of No. 58 to 42.
  • MikeK said:

    Whatever happens, UKIP marches on. This Scottish vote has been a real distraction from the main political battle that will reshape England.

    On the contrary, it has shown how easily the political class takes fright and offers all sorts of concessions if you kick them in the ballot box. Vote Fargle get change.
  • JBriskinJBriskin Posts: 2,380

    Mr. Briskin, ah. Cheers. Prefer Sarah Jane Mee, to be honest.

    She's in the morning and she's not poltitical!!!! Let's not be all bloky and rate the sky news ladies. I'm too drunk to type quick enough for a start....

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2014

    #BREAKING:Latest YouGov poll suggests Scottish Referendum exit poll results are 54% No, 46% Yes. Counting underway. No results expected soon

    There is no exit poll and for YouGov to say there is and that they carried it out is a criminal lie.

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1m
    To underline. Tonight's YouGov IndyRef survey IS NOT AN EXIT POLL
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Oh dear, Salmond.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 3s
    To underline. Tonight's YouGov IndyRef survey IS NOT AN EXIT POLL
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    AndyJS said:

    Oh dear, Salmond.

    bit premature
  • If it's a No I sincerely hope there will be a genuine debate on the future of the constitution of these islands and not a rushed implementation of devo-more which doesn't address the position of England.

    Any proposals should have as one of their fundamental considerations the future of Northern Ireland. As things stand the only conceivable definitive solution is the eventual reunification of NI with the Republic but if we had a true Federation of the British Isles (with a ready made cool acronym) then the alternative of Ireland reunifying with the UK would start to become thinkable. We'd need serious reform of the monarchy and probably the abolition of the house of Lords to make this possible. I'd suggest putting the federal government in Manchester so that we could also help rebalance the country.
  • HYUFD said:

    Yougov 54 No 46 Yes

    Anyone planning on opening a book on Gordon Brown being next first minister in Scotland.

    When the sh*t hits the fan he is brilliant, it is the day to day grind of running a country he wasn't suited for. Bit like Churchill really.
  • It isn't even a proper exit poll and could be quite wrong. Too close to call - still.
  • Right, I want some results now....
  • Scotland’s final referendum result now looks likely to come in at 54% for No, 46% for Yes. Confirmation is expected at around breakfast time.

    The Sun’s pollsters surveyed almost 2,000 Scots after they had been to the polling stations, and detected a small defection from Yes to No - doubling the unionists’ four point lead on the eve of the historic vote on Wednesday night.

    Is there a link for this?
  • Dear Lord, did I really compare Gordon Brown to Churchill.....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited September 2014
    Confirms the trend in the last 24 hours with the final two polls showing No +6, up from No +4.

    If there are a few shy Nos it could well be close to 45/55.
  • Kellner just staked his reputation that it is a 99% chance of a No win
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov 54 No 46 Yes

    Anyone planning on opening a book on Gordon Brown being next first minister in Scotland.

    When the sh*t hits the fan he is brilliant, it is the day to day grind of running a country he wasn't suited for. Bit like Churchill really.
    you really are a loony
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    crossover 40.01 to 45% now 2.4

    45.01 to 50% 2.41

    but uncrossover whilst typing!!!!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    A friend of mine is at a count south of Glasgow and reports an average turnout of 80% across a number of wards in her area
  • Can I now dare to hope that I am about to blow a few hundred quid and enter the pantheon of crappest tipsters in history?
  • Not sure the YouGov 'exit' poll is really telling us that much beyond the normal polls of the past few days.
    A YES vote will require significant mis-weighting / unrepresentative samples in the polls. The same was true this morning. And still entirely possible, with the YES odds of 14+ looking much too high.
  • malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    Oh dear, Salmond.

    bit premature
    Quite right. We'll have to wait for the sovereign will of the Scottish people.

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Whatever the result. Isn't this marvellous that we can all chatter away in total freedom to say what we think with our fellow citizens on such an important event ? There must be people lurking and following us in envy in less fortunate parts of the world. It's great. It's precious.

    End of pompous post.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov 54 No 46 Yes

    CNN has, as usual, beaten everyone in bad broadcasting of polls of the indyref.
    pic.twitter.com/fl9dzQlaYL
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Western isles aeroplane grounded due to fog fishing boat required
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031

    Can I now dare to hope that I am about to blow a few hundred quid and enter the pantheon of crappest tipsters in history?

    I hope so, no offence!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Howard said:

    It isn't even a proper exit poll and could be quite wrong. Too close to call - still.

    They said that about Culloden
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Trouble in Stornoway - votes from the Western Isles cannot be flown in due to weather problems.
  • GaiusGaius Posts: 227
    Kellner on newsnight saying 99% No.

    Hostage to fortune or what!!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    NEW THREAD
  • Can I now dare to hope that I am about to blow a few hundred quid and enter the pantheon of crappest tipsters in history?

    You mean you left at some time???
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    Oh dear, Salmond.

    bit premature
    Not looking great, tho, is it?
    Not looking great for us English is it,what the fcuk have we to be happy about the union.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    Oh dear, Salmond.

    bit premature
    Not looking great, tho, is it?
    no different from how it looked earlier , why do you think otherwise, nothing counted yet so its merely speculation
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Paul Too early to declare anything yet, but if that is the result he can certainly claim much of the credit
  • Alex Salmond "The people of Scotland have spoken"........."The Bastards"
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    If the pollsters really loved us, they could release reweighted versions of their final polls based on the turnout figures. That would eliminate most of the need to speculate whether the high turnout is good for yes or no
  • dr_spyn said:

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 3s
    To underline. Tonight's YouGov IndyRef survey IS NOT AN EXIT POLL

    No, I believe it's based on re-contacting the people who participated in their final pre-vote poll? But it does bear out the earlier pollis which suggested a modest late swing to no.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If the maestro Kellner calls it, it's all over folks.
  • New Thread
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    SeanT said:

    malcolmg said:

    AndyJS said:

    Oh dear, Salmond.

    bit premature
    Not looking great, tho, is it?
    Not looking great for us English is it,what the fcuk have we to be happy about the union.

    It survives for long enough for us hopefully to make it better rather than just casting it aside.
  • The quid races to $164.5
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    It could still be YES. It's a bit premature to start buying £'s, You may lose all by morning.
  • Ally_BAlly_B Posts: 185
    I didn't rely on an exit poll for my competition prediction. As soon as Jack's ARSE said it would be 40/60 I thought the game was over. Even so there are still a few flapheads here predicting gloom, doom and more or it.

    However I may set my alarm clock for 05.00 tomorrow to see what has actually transpired. One of the benefits of being made redundant is not having to get up early for work!

    I sincerely hope the Scots have voted no but then I hope our politicians seek to understand why and then address their concerns IF that is possible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Speedy Classic!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    RUMOURS of postal votes in the Edinburgh West area being:
    YES - 23%
    NO - 77%
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    It was Gordon wot won it.

    His influence has been critical....
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Always been surprised by this "conventional opinion" that 16-17 years olds should be strongly yes. Thousands of young Scots leave Scotland every year to travel, to go to university or just to live life. Some because they want to permanently move away from Scotland, some despite wanting to return later. But one thing these people haven't decided is that their future is restricted to Scotland. Many 16-17 year olds are very close to having to make these life changing decisions and Independence, leaving the EU (even if temporarily) etc etc couldn't come at a worse time for them. They would be the ones most negatively affected by the turmoil, even if it might benefit Scotland in the long run. It's trite and patronising to assume that they are not mature or capable enough to consider this.

    Those most in favour of Scottish Independence are those who have committed themselves to Scotland for the long term. Those who may have moved away when younger but are now settled permanently. 16-17 year olds don't want to be restricted by unnecessary borders. And such restrictions would be inevitable once the UK became a foreign country.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Always been surprised by this "conventional opinion" that 16-17 years olds should be strongly yes. Thousands of young Scots leave Scotland every year to travel, to go to university or just to live life. Some because they want to permanently move away from Scotland, some despite wanting to return later. But one thing these people haven't decided is that their future is restricted to Scotland. Many 16-17 year olds are very close to having to make these life changing decisions and Independence, leaving the EU (even if temporarily) etc etc couldn't come at a worse time for them. They would be the ones most negatively affected by the turmoil, even if it might benefit Scotland in the long run. It's trite and patronising to assume that they are not mature or capable enough to consider this.

    Those most in favour of Scottish Independence are those who have committed themselves to Scotland for the long term. Those who may have moved away when younger but are now settled permanently. 16-17 year olds don't want to be restricted by unnecessary borders. And such restrictions would be inevitable once the UK became a foreign country.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Always been surprised by this "conventional opinion" that 16-17 years olds should be strongly yes. Thousands of young Scots leave Scotland every year to travel, to go to university or just to live life. Some because they want to permanently move away from Scotland, some despite wanting to return later. But one thing these people haven't decided is that their future is restricted to Scotland. Many 16-17 year olds are very close to having to make these life changing decisions and Independence, leaving the EU (even if temporarily) etc etc couldn't come at a worse time for them. They would be the ones most negatively affected by the turmoil, even if it might benefit Scotland in the long run. It's trite and patronising to assume that they are not mature or capable enough to consider this.

    Those most in favour of Scottish Independence are those who have committed themselves to Scotland for the long term. Those who may have moved away when younger but are now settled permanently. 16-17 year olds don't want to be restricted by unnecessary borders. And such restrictions would be inevitable once the UK became a foreign country.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Always been surprised by this "conventional opinion" that 16-17 years olds should be strongly yes. Thousands of young Scots leave Scotland every year to travel, to go to university or just to live life. Some because they want to permanently move away from Scotland, some despite wanting to return later. But one thing these people haven't decided is that their future is restricted to Scotland. Many 16-17 year olds are very close to having to make these life changing decisions and Independence, leaving the EU (even if temporarily) etc etc couldn't come at a worse time for them. They would be the ones most negatively affected by the turmoil, even if it might benefit Scotland in the long run. It's trite and patronising to assume that they are not mature or capable enough to consider this.

    Those most in favour of Scottish Independence are those who have committed themselves to Scotland for the long term. Those who may have moved away when younger but are now settled permanently. 16-17 year olds don't want to be restricted by unnecessary borders. And such restrictions would be inevitable once the UK became a foreign country.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Always been surprised by this "conventional opinion" that 16-17 years olds should be strongly yes. Thousands of young Scots leave Scotland every year to travel, to go to university or just to live life. Some because they want to permanently move away from Scotland, some despite wanting to return later. But one thing these people haven't decided is that their future is restricted to Scotland. Many 16-17 year olds are very close to having to make these life changing decisions and Independence, leaving the EU (even if temporarily) etc etc couldn't come at a worse time for them. They would be the ones most negatively affected by the turmoil, even if it might benefit Scotland in the long run. It's trite and patronising to assume that they are not mature or capable enough to consider this.

    Those most in favour of Scottish Independence are those who have committed themselves to Scotland for the long term. Those who may have moved away when younger but are now settled permanently. 16-17 year olds don't want to be restricted by unnecessary borders. And such restrictions would be inevitable once the UK became a foreign country.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Always been surprised by this "conventional opinion" that 16-17 years olds should be strongly yes. Thousands of young Scots leave Scotland every year to travel, to go to university or just to live life. Some because they want to permanently move away from Scotland, some despite wanting to return later. But one thing these people haven't decided is that their future is restricted to Scotland. Many 16-17 year olds are very close to having to make these life changing decisions and Independence, leaving the EU (even if temporarily) etc etc couldn't come at a worse time for them. They would be the ones most negatively affected by the turmoil, even if it might benefit Scotland in the long run. It's trite and patronising to assume that they are not mature or capable enough to consider this.

    Those most in favour of Scottish Independence are those who have committed themselves to Scotland for the long term. Those who may have moved away when younger but are now settled permanently. 16-17 year olds don't want to be restricted by unnecessary borders. And such restrictions would be inevitable once the UK became a foreign country.
This discussion has been closed.