Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
Saw something earlier about the possibility of Western Isles being the first to declare. Struck me that was logistically impossible, unless they were all postals.
So few people live there that they wont matter in terms of the outcome.
We never know (or at least not till sparrow f*rt tomorrow). And, more to the point, for once, everyone's vote counts and is equal.
Very, very refreshing after FPTP.
FFS this poll IS FPTP squared
How on earth do you work that out??
First past the post plus one.
Its FPTP with only 2 candidates
Of course, sorry, quite so, up too early to vote (but not often), thanks. I was thinking of the way in which every vote counts - not like so many FPTP GEs.
Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.
David - with just 40 minutes to go before the the polling booths close, what's your overall take in terms of the Yes/No balance against expectation and also as regards turnout?
I have been door knocking etc all day and have to emphasise that I do not have access to inside info only my own perceptions and some gossip. Anyone betting money on that does so at their own risk.
Having said that I think turnout will be higher than in a GE but 90%+ is ridiculous and will not happen unless Dundee is seriously atypical.
BT volunteers think they have won. Not by much but there is an air of confidence.
Labour think they have won Glasgow. The gap has definitely closed there but they are pretty confident it still exists.
Hard national figures seem non existent.
You've done a terrific job David - it's almost time to get yourself home for a large mug of cocoa, or whatever.
I think Stuart Dickson did let slip once that he has a property in Scotland. So, my guess is he has voted postally.
And talking of second home-owners, an acquaintance of mine took her teenage daughter out of school for the day, and they both drove 250 odd miles to vote in person.
Please be aware that if your acquaintance has just cast a vote based upon second-home ownership alone (ie. not normally resident in Scotland) then she has just broken the law.
Also be aware that the relevant officers are keeping a very close eye on known 2nd home property registrations.
I have never known law officers to prosecute for that.
Word on the street is that there are going to be a substantial number of prosecutions because of bogus voter registrations based upon 2nd home ownership (by people not otherwise normally resident in Scotland). I am aware of a number of active cases in a relatively small section of the West Highlands alone.
Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
Saw something earlier about the possibility of Western Isles being the first to declare. Struck me that was logistically impossible, unless they were all postals.
So few people live there that they wont matter in terms of the outcome.
We never know (or at least not till sparrow f*rt tomorrow). And, more to the point, for once, everyone's vote counts and is equal.
Very, very refreshing after FPTP.
FFS this poll IS FPTP squared
How on earth do you work that out??
First past the post plus one.
Its FPTP with only 2 candidates
Of course, sorry, quite so, up too early to vote (but not often), thanks. I was thinking of the way in which every vote counts - not like so many FPTP GEs.
I think Stuart Dickson did let slip once that he has a property in Scotland. So, my guess is he has voted postally.
And talking of second home-owners, an acquaintance of mine took her teenage daughter out of school for the day, and they both drove 250 odd miles to vote in person.
Please be aware that if your acquaintance has just cast a vote based upon second-home ownership alone (ie. not normally resident in Scotland) then she has just broken the law.
Also be aware that the relevant officers are keeping a very close eye on known 2nd home property registrations.
I have never known law officers to prosecute for that.
Word on the street is that there are going to be a substantial number of prosecutions because of bogus voter registrations based upon 2nd home ownership (by people not otherwise normally resident in Scotland). I am aware of a number of active cases in a relatively small section of the West Highlands alone.
Seems a bit harsh considering the MPs weren't prosecuted for pretending their 2nd home was their main residence to get thousands of pounds in expenses.
I wonder if the fact that they would probably be voting no has motivated this crackdown.
I agree with that. In a race this huge and tight and tense, there are bound to be results which spook the market and send it all over the place. FFS the rumour of a rumour of a poll can shift Betfair substantially.
YES is bound to trade under 4.5 at some point in the night. Of course if YES wins it will at some point crossover.
Does trading stop at 10pm Sean?
Surely not. Trading doesn't stop for by-elections etc. It carries on until the result is declared. not sure how you could legally stop it, anyway.
Thanks - I am not familiar with these things. I guess then the odds will respond and change rapidly after 10.
I agree with that. In a race this huge and tight and tense, there are bound to be results which spook the market and send it all over the place. FFS the rumour of a rumour of a poll can shift Betfair substantially.
YES is bound to trade under 4.5 at some point in the night. Of course if YES wins it will at some point crossover.
Does trading stop at 10pm Sean?
Trading on all Betfair's markets is 24/7 until the outcome is known (or voided, etc.)
The 45-50% band on betfair is pretty much a direct bet on the accuracy of the pollsters.
If you think there's a greater than 50% chance the polls are within 2.5% of the final result, back it, if you think they're more likely than not to be more than 2.5% out, lay it.
My hunch is to lay, yet statistically with MOE etc, I'd be stupid not to back.
I think Stuart Dickson did let slip once that he has a property in Scotland. So, my guess is he has voted postally.
And talking of second home-owners, an acquaintance of mine took her teenage daughter out of school for the day, and they both drove 250 odd miles to vote in person.
Please be aware that if your acquaintance has just cast a vote based upon second-home ownership alone (ie. not normally resident in Scotland) then she has just broken the law.
Also be aware that the relevant officers are keeping a very close eye on known 2nd home property registrations.
I have never known law officers to prosecute for that.
Word on the street is that there are going to be a substantial number of prosecutions because of bogus voter registrations based upon 2nd home ownership (by people not otherwise normally resident in Scotland). I am aware of a number of active cases in a relatively small section of the West Highlands alone.
Seems a bit harsh considering the MPs weren't prosecuted for pretending their 2nd home was their main residence to get thousands of pounds in expenses.
I wonder if the fact that they would probably be voting no has motivated this crackdown.
2 wrongs do not make a right.
Just because Alistair Darling got caught but let off by resigning from the Faculty of Advocates does not protect ordinary people from harsh prosecution. I have no idea if they are yes or no voters.
Actually, now I look at the issue, I must have missed this. The samples must be rather small for the smaller clubs, but there must be a fair sample for Rangers and Celtic. Just a bit surprising if it is true.
"Word on the street is that there are going to be a substantial number of prosecutions because of bogus voter registrations based upon 2nd home ownership (by people not otherwise normally resident in Scotland). I am aware of a number of active cases in a relatively small section of the West Highlands alone."
Excellent. I don't much like my acquaintance anyhow. It's good to know Dickson is on the case.
And, also, I think she may voted Yes. At least, she is an ardent Scottish patriot.
But, she is also very concerned about taxes going up, so she may have voted No.
Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.
David - with just 40 minutes to go before the the polling booths close, what's your overall take in terms of the Yes/No balance against expectation and also as regards turnout?
I have been door knocking etc all day and have to emphasise that I do not have access to inside info only my own perceptions and some gossip. Anyone betting money on that does so at their own risk.
Having said that I think turnout will be higher than in a GE but 90%+ is ridiculous and will not happen unless Dundee is seriously atypical.
BT volunteers think they have won. Not by much but there is an air of confidence.
Labour think they have won Glasgow. The gap has definitely closed there but they are pretty confident it still exists.
Hard national figures seem non existent.
Thank you for all your work. I sincerely hope it has not been in vain.
It has come down to a contest between hope and fear.
If hope wins then it will be YES, if fear then it will be NO.
If its YES then the Scots deserve to be treated with respect and a mutually beneficial settlement agreed.
If its NO then the Scots deserve to be treated with contempt and ground down politically and economically.
And am I the only person who will be watching Spartacus: War Of The Dammed at 10pm rather than looking for Scottish exit polls ?
sorry AR rare we disagree, but if it's yes scots deserve to be treated with contempt since they're thick and all their daughters need a taxi drive in rotherham.
Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.
Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.
David - with just 40 minutes to go before the the polling booths close, what's your overall take in terms of the Yes/No balance against expectation and also as regards turnout?
I have been door knocking etc all day and have to emphasise that I do not have access to inside info only my own perceptions and some gossip. Anyone betting money on that does so at their own risk.
Having said that I think turnout will be higher than in a GE but 90%+ is ridiculous and will not happen unless Dundee is seriously atypical.
BT volunteers think they have won. Not by much but there is an air of confidence.
Labour think they have won Glasgow. The gap has definitely closed there but they are pretty confident it still exists.
Hard national figures seem non existent.
David if the Union holds guys like you have done a cracking job.
Looks like the referendum is invalid and will have to be re run as part of Scotland was left out. If the rerun produces a Yes Labour will be looking for a new leader in 2016.
< I have no doubt it will be less than Salmond wants (Independence) so he will whine incessantly throughout the whole exercise which will result in him being offered more than the government wants to give and that will likely have a cost to it. As it goes as pensions are one of the biggest headaches for Government. Having funding which is fully accounted for has no allure to it at all. There is no good news there for voters. I'm quite sure Salmond will be happy if London hangs on to that for the time being. That he can wrest control of the rest of the Welfare policy I suspect is more his aim and then he will be able to further wind up the English.
But still that is not the main problem with what is on offer. It is the seemingly open ended continuation of that economic nonsense Barnett which means that London aside southern and eastern regions of England remain outrageously underfunded in order that north of the border they can have free prescriptions, free university education and presumably in future advantageous welfare settlements.
If they are more generous on welfare, and have a fixed budget, won't that just mean people move fom England to Scotland to claim benefits?
From Previous Thread.
Possibly but given the SNP's track record on Tuition Fees it's quite possible they would devise some sort of discriminatory method of denying the migrants from the south from getting any advantage. How that would then play with the EU would be interesting
I guess my main hope is that it's decisive either way - uniting Scotland in the coming months might be far harder than campaigning either way, and a clear cut result might make it that bit easier.
Looks like the referendum is invalid and will have to be re run as part of Scotland was left out. If the rerun produces a Yes Labour will be looking for a new leader in 2016.
To give myself an idea to compare with, I dug out my results sheet from the 1997 Devolution referendum, and the times of declaration are given as follows:
00:41 Clackmannan 00:50 South Lanarkshire 01:49 West Lothian 01:54 Orkney 01:59 Renfrewshire 02:11 Western Isles 02:15 Moray 02:20 Dundee 02:27 East Renfrewshire 02:31 South Ayrshire 02:37 East Lothian 02:45 Dumfries & Galloway 02:53 Falkirk 02:57 Stirling 03:02 Perth & Kinross 03:05 Edinburgh 03:09 Midlothian 03:13 Shetland 03:17 West Dumbartonshire 03:22 Inverclyde 03:27 Angus 03:32 Glasgow 03:36 Fife 03:40 Borders 03:46 East Ayrshire 03:50 North Ayrshire 04:08 North Lanarkshire 04:13 Aberdeen 04:17 East Dumbartonshire 04:21 Aberdeenshire 04:27 Argyll & Bute 05:47 Highland
"Security forces in Australia have prevented an alleged Islamic State plot to carry out a filmed beheading of a random person in Sydney “within days” as part of a series of gruesome public executions. "
Claims that some polling stations in Glasgow apparently as high as 70% for yes, asking how they voted after the event I assume
I spoke to one person who had voted NO today, my English son-in -law and he nearly went YES.
English aren't allowed to vote in this election!!!!!
Mr Briskin , he resides in God's country having married my daughter. To be fair so do his family who are sure to be No's but in Australia so hopefully did not vote.
"ouGov will announce its final #IndyRef prediction at 22:30, based on recontacting voters today after they voted"
EEk. I still predict 51% yes.
Ah ok, that answers my question about benchmarks and weighting. The key thing then to look for is any polling day movement.
It does still beg the question about how exactly they are contacting? Landlines? Really? Young people generally don't have landlines these days. Or is it mobiles? Or online?
Just having a wobble as to whether pollsters have really switched on to the changing world of communications.
Comments
Drinking tea at 1 in the afternoon...
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status
/512692063792418817/photo/1
I wonder if the fact that they would probably be voting no has motivated this crackdown.
I'm calling it for No.
Wind of a poll?
First three respondents can have a tenner
If hope wins then it will be YES, if fear then it will be NO.
If its YES then the Scots deserve to be treated with respect and a mutually beneficial settlement agreed.
If its NO then the Scots deserve to be treated with contempt and ground down politically and economically.
And am I the only person who will be watching Spartacus: War Of The Dammed at 10pm rather than looking for Scottish exit polls ?
If you think there's a greater than 50% chance the polls are within 2.5% of the final result, back it, if you think they're more likely than not to be more than 2.5% out, lay it.
My hunch is to lay, yet statistically with MOE etc, I'd be stupid not to back.
It's going to be fascinating....
Just because Alistair Darling got caught but let off by resigning from the Faculty of Advocates does not protect ordinary people from harsh prosecution. I have no idea if they are yes or no voters.
Actually, now I look at the issue, I must have missed this. The samples must be rather small for the smaller clubs, but there must be a fair sample for Rangers and Celtic. Just a bit surprising if it is true.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/old-firm-united-both-celtic-3598872
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcJ-wNmazHQ
Yes 44% No 56%!!!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2759720/From-Fife-Fiji-Amazing-Twitter-heatmap-shows-Scottish-independence-referendum-followed-world.html
Yes 6.2
When does Sky news start??? Everton are still on (3-0)
Excellent. I don't much like my acquaintance anyhow. It's good to know Dickson is on the case.
And, also, I think she may voted Yes. At least, she is an ardent Scottish patriot.
But, she is also very concerned about taxes going up, so she may have voted No.
#toostupid
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2760467/Doncaster-technically-Scotland-signed-900-years-ago-never-formally-given-back.html
Do we all sing Auld Lang Syne at 10pm?
Possibly but given the SNP's track record on Tuition Fees it's quite possible they would devise some sort of discriminatory method of denying the migrants from the south from getting any advantage. How that would then play with the EU would be interesting
(I'll get my coat)
I guess my main hope is that it's decisive either way - uniting Scotland in the coming months might be far harder than campaigning either way, and a clear cut result might make it that bit easier.
Reportedly YouGov have polled people today, on how they intended to vote.
Scots wha hae is strictly for the No side to sing, as it is about Bannockburn, which they love.
Ed is Crap is PM
#quotingfreemasons
Westminster Voting Intention:
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead down one to two points: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%
YouGov will announce its final #IndyRef prediction at 22:30, based on recontacting voters today after they voted
Anyone know?
Does it mean we can get hope to get rid of Ed Miliband as well as Gordon Brown, assuming the Scots have done the decent thing?
We can withdraw the extra benefits now!!!!
00:41 Clackmannan
00:50 South Lanarkshire
01:49 West Lothian
01:54 Orkney
01:59 Renfrewshire
02:11 Western Isles
02:15 Moray
02:20 Dundee
02:27 East Renfrewshire
02:31 South Ayrshire
02:37 East Lothian
02:45 Dumfries & Galloway
02:53 Falkirk
02:57 Stirling
03:02 Perth & Kinross
03:05 Edinburgh
03:09 Midlothian
03:13 Shetland
03:17 West Dumbartonshire
03:22 Inverclyde
03:27 Angus
03:32 Glasgow
03:36 Fife
03:40 Borders
03:46 East Ayrshire
03:50 North Ayrshire
04:08 North Lanarkshire
04:13 Aberdeen
04:17 East Dumbartonshire
04:21 Aberdeenshire
04:27 Argyll & Bute
05:47 Highland
EEk. I still predict 51% yes.
steve richards @steverichards14
If Scotland votes 'no' with devo max there will be the 'English question' to answer. I expect the row over England to begin around 7am
"Security forces in Australia have prevented an alleged Islamic State plot to carry out a filmed beheading of a random person in Sydney “within days” as part of a series of gruesome public executions. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/australia/11103346/Australia-foils-Islamic-State-terror-plot-to-commit-Lee-Rigby-style-murders.html
Michael Fabricant ✔ @Mike_Fabricant
Whether it is No or Yes, and I think it will be No, we need a new deal for the UK and a new Act of Union with clear powers for each nation
It does still beg the question about how exactly they are contacting? Landlines? Really? Young people generally don't have landlines these days. Or is it mobiles? Or online?
Just having a wobble as to whether pollsters have really switched on to the changing world of communications.
Chris Green ✔ @cghgreen
YouGov poll conducted AFTER people voted will be released at 10.30pm, it says #IndyRef