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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » All the signs are that the turnout is large

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  • DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was 13% of Yes voters made up by those who had never voted and 10% of No voters. The final figure was 6.1 vs 5.3 so 53-47 in favour of Yes. Much weaker than had been touted by Yes.

    Subsample of an opinion poll, be careful.
    Spot on.
  • Shadsy cuts GLASGOW YES price.

    New best prices:

    Glasgow result
    YES 4/6 (Lad)
    NO 6/4 (PP)

    Note: Glasgow is the largest council area in the country.

    Yep, Yes in Glasgow has certainly shortened markedly, SkyBet now go 8/13.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    DanSmith said:

    MaxPB said:

    It was 13% of Yes voters made up by those who had never voted and 10% of No voters. The final figure was 6.1 vs 5.3 so 53-47 in favour of Yes. Much weaker than had been touted by Yes.

    Subsample of an opinion poll, be careful.
    Agreed, but after all of the ramping by Yes that they were the ones who got these people to register anywhere near 50-50 is something that needs to be looked at, subsample or not.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    MaxPB said:

    DanSmith said:

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 1h
    Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see

    Surely a breach of electoral law by Maguire given that the polls are still open.
    It's legal to make predictions, even more legal to quote someone else's. We've been doing little else for weeks.

    Howard said:

    "Sunday Herald Editor, saying he's heard from several sources yes is ahead in postal vote"

    I read this tweet. Does anyone know if its possible that this could be known at this stage?

    Surely they only count postals at the same time as the other ballots?
    It's often possible with good eyesight to make a good guess from verification of the postal votes. Quoting from that IS illegal, but saying you've met someone who did is not.


  • Quiet night tonight, anything interesting happening?

  • HYUFD said:

    MD/SO Surely up the voters in each English region to decide in a referendum. At least more devolution to the county councils

    You could do the Administrative Devolution that the Welsh had to four regions (North, Midlands, South, South West) and London.
  • Good to see you on, Ave It. What's your prediction for the other referendum?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MaxPB said:

    DanSmith said:

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 1h
    Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see

    Surely a breach of electoral law by Maguire given that the polls are still open.
    In which case most of PB will be locked up for taking part in the PB Prediction competition and I should have had a early morning call from the police with attendant BBC cameras a month ago.

  • Pong said:

    This is awfully exciting, isn't it?

    I remember asking my folks about the parties when I first became aware of such things.

    They explained that the conservatives liked things the way they were. Life seemed pretty good to me so I backed the conservatives for that election. I was 9 and it was 1974.

    In retrospect, things as they were was not great!
    It is heresy in some circles to admit that life was ever crap before 1979.
  • Mr. HYUFD, should be up to all England, not politicians trying to gerrymander things and carve us up into crappy little political fiefdoms.
  • MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.

    I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.

    What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!

    That's why I've gone for Yes. I think it is highly likely the pollsters have not picked up whats happening because this is a vote like no other. Why would hundreds of thousands of never-voted-before folk go out and vote for the status quo? They wouldn't is the answer.

    Er, presumably you didn't notice that IPSOS polled brand new voters, and discovered they were breaking 13% for YES and 10% for NO.
    But what about the other 77%?
    It was 13% of Yes voters made up by those who had never voted and 10% of No voters. The final figure was 6.1 vs 5.3 so 53-47 in favour of Yes. Much weaker than had been touted by Yes.
    Ah I see - thank you. It seems to me that the argument that the pollsters have missed whole swathes of people who all happen to be yes supporters is not terribly convincing. But we'll soon know for sure.....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564


    Quiet night tonight, anything interesting happening?

    LOL
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Both Maguire and SH probably wrong, no exit polls and postal votes not counted until 10pm. Also it is illegal to leak election result data before polls close, so i suggest both shut up!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Pong said:

    This is awfully exciting, isn't it?

    I remember asking my folks about the parties when I first became aware of such things.

    They explained that the conservatives liked things the way they were. Life seemed pretty good to me so I backed the conservatives for that election. I was 9 and it was 1974.

    In retrospect, things as they were was not great!
    It is heresy in some circles to admit that life was ever crap before 1979.
    Doing homework by candlelight during the three day week was rather fun as I recall.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,919
    edited September 2014
    I'm nervous now.

    The last couple of weeks, with the constitutional perils of DevoMax on the table, I'd shrugged my shoulders a bit at a yes vote, thinking at least it gets it all over with quickly.

    Tonight though, it's clear I really, really hope it will be no. Partly because I don't want to see my country disintegrate and its peoples to fracture, and partly because I think it will cause economic chaos for all of us.

    As a very small consolation, I stand to gain most from the betting if yes wins...

  • HowardHoward Posts: 97
    edited September 2014

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.

    I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.

    What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!

    That's why I've gone for Yes. I think it is highly likely the pollsters have not picked up whats happening because this is a vote like no other. Why would hundreds of thousands of never-voted-before folk go out and vote for the status quo? They wouldn't is the answer.

    Er, presumably you didn't notice that IPSOS polled brand new voters, and discovered they were breaking 13% for YES and 10% for NO.
    But what about the other 77%?
    It was 13% of Yes voters made up by those who had never voted and 10% of No voters. The final figure was 6.1 vs 5.3 so 53-47 in favour of Yes. Much weaker than had been touted by Yes.
    Ah I see - thank you. It seems to me that the argument that the pollsters have missed whole swathes of people who all happen to be yes supporters is not terribly convincing. But we'll soon know for sure.....
    Are they thinking of very deprived people who are not online and don't have a phone or mobile and who don't normally vote but that the SNP have got out? Bottom 10% by income.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Smarmeron said:

    @peter_from_putney
    Russian roulette has longer odds than that unless you are incredibly stupid, backing out the ratchet fully and holding the gun at the right angle means that the weight of the cartridge should make the chamber settle to the bottom.
    On the other hand.....get some other burger to test the theory out.

    There were always the old internet stories of some idiots playing russian roulette with a semi-automatic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,878
    Howard Indeed, or euro regions.
  • Smarmeron said:

    @peter_from_putney
    Russian roulette has longer odds than that unless you are incredibly stupid, backing out the ratchet fully and holding the gun at the right angle means that the weight of the cartridge should make the chamber settle to the bottom.
    On the other hand.....get some other burger to test the theory out.

    Wow .... I'm impressed by your seemingly expert knowledge on the subject!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Forget the country I've got a fair few betting positions relying on Cameron and Miliband keeping their jobs. Praying for a #No ^_~
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    The wet dream for some of Labour expunged and a Conservative-UKIP coalition evaporates with a NO vote and the promises made to Scotland in the campaign will have to be delivered.

    .

    Trimmed because I suspect that the Coalition will renege on those promises. After all doing so would lead to heavy Labour losses in Scotland in the face of a furious SNP.
  • I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.

    I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.

    What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!

    Have faith in JackW - he's going 60 - 40 in favour of the Nos and he very rarely if ever gets these things wrong, certainly not to this degree.
    Take comfort also from the betting markets where the odds against a Yes win are stubbornly remaining at around 5/1 with Betfair, despite all the concern about the effect of an ultra-high turnout. Don't imagine for one second that all those extra voters are going to vote Yes, they aren't, not by a long chalk.
    Relax and enjoy your evening ...... the UK will still be in one piece tomorrow morning.
    When was the last time there was one of these things for Jack to predict? Is he over 300 years old?
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Howard said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 1h
    Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see

    Should he be tweeting that kind of statement given the polls are still open?
    It's fine. 8-10pm the "expectation management game" usually starts with tweets and rumors like this.
    Well you don't normally want to manage expectations on your own side UP.
    Less expectations management, more trying to put influence out. People like voting for the winning side, you create the impression of momentum and victory, you might swing a few late votes (and every little helps).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Ave_it said:

    Go YES!!!!....

    ..to women allowed in at St Andrews - about time welcome to 2015!!!!

    good to see scotnats can finally play in their kilts and cocktail dresses.

    # malcolmLBD
  • Pong said:

    This is awfully exciting, isn't it?

    I remember asking my folks about the parties when I first became aware of such things.

    They explained that the conservatives liked things the way they were. Life seemed pretty good to me so I backed the conservatives for that election. I was 9 and it was 1974.

    In retrospect, things as they were was not great!
    It is heresy in some circles to admit that life was ever crap before 1979.
    Doing homework by candlelight during the three day week was rather fun as I recall.
    So was shagging!
  • corporeal said:

    Howard said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DanSmith said:

    Kevin Maguire ‏@Kevin_Maguire 1h
    Senior figure in No campaign predicted they'll win 58-42 in Scotland. Yes gone very quiet. We'll see

    Should he be tweeting that kind of statement given the polls are still open?
    It's fine. 8-10pm the "expectation management game" usually starts with tweets and rumors like this.
    Well you don't normally want to manage expectations on your own side UP.
    Less expectations management, more trying to put influence out. People like voting for the winning side, you create the impression of momentum and victory, you might swing a few late votes (and every little helps).
    Especially in this case. I've been thinking about how odd it would be to have voted against ones own new country. So if you thought YES would win, and you are going to have a new country, better vote YES so that you don't fall on the wrong side of history.
  • @Nigel4England

    "When was the last time there was one of these things for Jack to predict? Is he over 300 years old?"

    Close.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @peter_from_putney
    It came up in a discussion, but while the odds against dropping the hammer on a live chamber improve, it would depend a lot on the revolver used, by how much.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited September 2014
    YES moving...

    about £20k vanished
  • Howard said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.

    I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.

    What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!

    That's why I've gone for Yes. I think it is highly likely the pollsters have not picked up whats happening because this is a vote like no other. Why would hundreds of thousands of never-voted-before folk go out and vote for the status quo? They wouldn't is the answer.

    Er, presumably you didn't notice that IPSOS polled brand new voters, and discovered they were breaking 13% for YES and 10% for NO.
    But what about the other 77%?
    It was 13% of Yes voters made up by those who had never voted and 10% of No voters. The final figure was 6.1 vs 5.3 so 53-47 in favour of Yes. Much weaker than had been touted by Yes.
    Ah I see - thank you. It seems to me that the argument that the pollsters have missed whole swathes of people who all happen to be yes supporters is not terribly convincing. But we'll soon know for sure.....
    Are they thinking of very deprived people who are not online and don't have a phone or mobile and who don't normally vote but that the SNP have got out? Bottom 10% by income.
    I don't believe that 10% of scots don't have either mobile or landline. I don't know the true figure but I'd guess its nearer 1%. And why should we assume they are all yes supporters? Many of them will be pensioners.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    How much do YES have to win Glasgow by for it to indicate an overall win? I know a couple of the brainboxes here have worked a rough estimate out..
    SeanT said:

    So to sum up, we have one swirling rumour (thanks to Kevin Maguire) that NO are cruising to an easy win...

    And yet the odds on YES winning Glasgow are shortening by the minute, which implies that this could be a very close result, and maybe YES.

    Eek. Time for dinner.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031
    RodCrosby said:

    YES moving...

    about £20k vanished

    Argh, which way?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    @pfp

    I've been so busy trading every bookie market I can find, I barely know what my best outcome is.

    Currently, my profit is weighted on no (but no loss on yes, thanks to the last few weeks of trading). Turnout between 81.5-90% would be fantastic, above or below that I'm screwed.

    Lots and lots of little bets on the side markets, just picking off value really.

    Right now, the value bet is probably laying 45-50% @ evens on Betfair IMO.
  • What depresses me is the thought of BBC commentators such as Brian Taylor (the white haired Scottish commentator) or Nick Robinson waxing lyrical for about 4 hours before the results are in (10pm-2am) about how wondrous a thing the turnout is and how it shows a magical level of engagement....a truly historic day etc etc.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    taffys said:

    On golf: aren't there some women only clubs? Nobody seems to kick up a fuss about them.

    Or the Women's Institute. Blatantly sexist. Imagine if there was a Men's Institute.

    Equality means Heads I Win, Tails You Lose.

    Or Who/Whom as Lenin put it.

  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893

    Shadsy cuts GLASGOW YES price.

    New best prices:

    Glasgow result
    YES 4/6 (Lad)
    NO 6/4 (PP)

    Note: Glasgow is the largest council area in the country.

    Yep, Yes in Glasgow has certainly shortened markedly, SkyBet now go 8/13.

    Could be value in No if the price is being driven by Glaswegians seeing busy polling stations and assuming everyone is coming out to vote yes.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited September 2014
    Just to be clear, the No rumour wasn't by Kevin Macguire, it was a prediction from someone in the No camp and therefore utterly meaningless.

    The SH YES rumour is very odd as surely they haven't opened postal votes? So I suggest that's a total pile of rubbish too.

    No-one knows.
  • Whoops-a-daisy! LADBROKES SUSPEND THEIR TURNOUT PRICES.
  • Turnout. 90% + is tightening at Betfair.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Turnout. 90% + is tightening at Betfair.

    Sinn Fein speaks
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2014
    Artist said:

    Shadsy cuts GLASGOW YES price.

    New best prices:

    Glasgow result
    YES 4/6 (Lad)
    NO 6/4 (PP)

    Note: Glasgow is the largest council area in the country.

    Yep, Yes in Glasgow has certainly shortened markedly, SkyBet now go 8/13.

    Could be value in No if the price is being driven by Glaswegians seeing busy polling stations and assuming everyone is coming out to vote yes.
    I expect the sums being bet on that market are quite small - a £50 bet on either side could probably shift the odds. Don't read too much into it etc.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I clearly understand fuck all about betting and should not be listened too.
  • I'm nervous now.

    The last couple of weeks, with the constitutional perils of DevoMax on the table, I'd shrugged my shoulders a bit at a yes vote, thinking at least it gets it all over with quickly.

    Tonight though, it's clear I really, really hope it will be no. Partly because I don't want to see my country disintegrate and its peoples to fracture, and partly because I think it will cause economic chaos for all of us.

    As a very small consolation, I stand to gain most from the betting if yes wins...

    That is my consolation. I will make some very decent money when Yes wins. I'd rather lose though.
  • Vast sums laying YES have just disappeared from Betfair.
  • BetFair liquidity has all but disappeared. YES coming in.
    Rumours?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    5.7
  • YES tightening fast at Betfair. Gone from 6.4 to 5.7 in 20 minutes.
  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    I am hoping to see Alex Salmond cry in the morning after decades of ambition come to nothing.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    SeanT said:

    RodCrosby said:

    YES moving...

    about £20k vanished

    I noticed. Nerves? Or info?
    Alistair said:

    I clearly understand fuck all about betting and should not be listened too.

    so like 95% of PBers - myself included. :-)
  • Has anyone got a link to the expected declaration times?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    £13 million matched is an impressive amount
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    I'm nervous now.

    The last couple of weeks, with the constitutional perils of DevoMax on the table, I'd shrugged my shoulders a bit at a yes vote, thinking at least it gets it all over with quickly.

    Tonight though, it's clear I really, really hope it will be no. Partly because I don't want to see my country disintegrate and its peoples to fracture, and partly because I think it will cause economic chaos for all of us.

    As a very small consolation, I stand to gain most from the betting if yes wins...

    That is my consolation. I will make some very decent money when Yes wins. I'd rather lose though.
    SO still up for a pint w\c 13 october I;ll see if doc P is free
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited September 2014
    Howard said:

    What depresses me is the thought of BBC commentators such as Brian Taylor (the white haired Scottish commentator) or Nick Robinson waxing lyrical for about 4 hours before the results are in (10pm-2am) about how wondrous a thing the turnout is and how it shows a magical level of engagement....a truly historic day etc etc.

    But what is depressing me is the thought of watching Jeremy Vine leaping around the electronic graphics like a headless chicken, accompanied by Emily Matliss acting as a political weathergirl.
  • audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited September 2014
    I do love this time on Election nights. The hour before polls close is always one of febrile expectation, rumourmongering, and sheer terror, followed by several hours of anti-climactic waiting.

    So, are YouGov really doing an Exit poll? If so, how on earth are they going to set benchmarks and weighting etc? They surely can't simply take a random litmus test?
  • I'm nervous now.

    The last couple of weeks, with the constitutional perils of DevoMax on the table, I'd shrugged my shoulders a bit at a yes vote, thinking at least it gets it all over with quickly.

    Tonight though, it's clear I really, really hope it will be no. Partly because I don't want to see my country disintegrate and its peoples to fracture, and partly because I think it will cause economic chaos for all of us.

    As a very small consolation, I stand to gain most from the betting if yes wins...

    That is my consolation. I will make some very decent money when Yes wins. I'd rather lose though.
    SO still up for a pint w\c 13 october I;ll see if doc P is free

    I am Sir!

  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758

    Has anyone got a link to the expected declaration times?

    It was in a link posted a few days ago. I think they are all due to come in, between 2am to 6am. But warning have been made that the final declaration may not be until later in the morning, if there are delays in getting boxes over from some of the islands.
  • Betfair price is back up to 6.

    Calm down people.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Alistair said:

    I clearly understand fuck all about betting and should not be listened too.

    Welcome to the club. It has many members :-)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Stornoway airport is closed due to fog, this will massively effect the vote count time
  • Just watching the Eukelele Orchestra Of Great Britain on Sky Arts 1. Funny, talented, eccentric. Makes you proud to be British!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,031

    Betfair price is back up to 6.

    Calm down people.

    *tea drinking intensifies*
  • Dr. Spyn, I did suggest they'll end up having politicians toss the caber with the ridiculous and aggravating CGI this time.

    I had planned to stay up, but if there's sod all for 4 hours I might just get up if I happen to wake in the middle of the night (which is eminently possible).
  • hucks67 said:

    Has anyone got a link to the expected declaration times?

    It was in a link posted a few days ago. I think they are all due to come in, between 2am to 6am. But warning have been made that the final declaration may not be until later in the morning, if there are delays in getting boxes over from some of the islands.
    Found it now. I've just had a near 6 hour sleep getting ready for tonight.

    I will be your host for this evening.

    I so hope I don't have my Dewey moment.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Lesson here is if you have a big wedge you can cause the market to react simply by making it appear and dissapear
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited September 2014
    so the world says sod off scotland we dont want you

    #rajoy #obama #merkel #andymurray
  • http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/09/18/scotland_referendum_canadian_team_sees_yes_win_amid_large_voter_turnout.html

    Some Canadian academics have been doing data analysis today and predict 54% for the YES camp:

    "A Canadian team of voter-contact experts working with Scotland’s Yes team is forecasting that Scots will vote by as much as 54-46 in favour of independence when the final vote is tallied early on Friday morning.

    “I believe they’re going to win,” said Mike O’Neill of the Canadian voter-targeting firm First Contact, which has been doing data-modelling work with two academics, one of them Canadian, to profile likely Yes and No support in Thursday’s referendum."
  • Looks like turnout is going to be stunning. Truly stunning.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Howard said:

    http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2014/09/18/scotland_referendum_canadian_team_sees_yes_win_amid_large_voter_turnout.html

    Some Canadian academics have been doing data analysis today and predict 54% for the YES camp:

    "A Canadian team of voter-contact experts working with Scotland’s Yes team is forecasting that Scots will vote by as much as 54-46 in favour of independence when the final vote is tallied early on Friday morning.

    “I believe they’re going to win,” said Mike O’Neill of the Canadian voter-targeting firm First Contact, which has been doing data-modelling work with two academics, one of them Canadian, to profile likely Yes and No support in Thursday’s referendum."

    Angus Reid
  • HowardHoward Posts: 97
    edited September 2014

    Looks like turnout is going to be stunning. Truly stunning.

    Indeed. It shows how much people care about this. The result will have total legitimacy.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    DanSmith said:

    How much do YES have to win Glasgow by for it to indicate an overall win? I know a couple of the brainboxes here have worked a rough estimate out..

    SeanT said:

    So to sum up, we have one swirling rumour (thanks to Kevin Maguire) that NO are cruising to an easy win...

    And yet the odds on YES winning Glasgow are shortening by the minute, which implies that this could be a very close result, and maybe YES.

    Eek. Time for dinner.

    I'm expecting Glasgow to be 50% Yes, compared to 45% overall.

    So, if Glasgow reaches 56% Yes, I suspect Yes have won.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Looks like turnout is going to be stunning. Truly stunning.

    scots must REALLY hate Salmond
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    Howard said:

    Looks like turnout is going to be stunning. Truly stunning.

    Indeed. It shows how much people care about this.
    See the Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/18/9-things-scottish-referendum-campaign-taught-us
  • As a bit of idle speculation, if it was yes and Cameron is forced to go (if it is the former I think the latter is inevitable) who gets Number 10?

    Couldn't really see it being anyone but Hammond IMHO. Hague has a chance if he can be persuaded to stay. I can't see it being May or Osborne.
  • Election Game predictions

    Evening all, many thanks and good luck to everyone who took part (NZ predictions will be out by tomorrow evening).

    25% of players predicted Yes to win, with the average prediction across all players being Yes 48.36%.

    In the selected local regions, only Falkirk and Glasgow had an overall Yes prediction, with Aberdeen, Dumfries & Galloway, Edinburgh, Highland, Perth & Kinross, and Shetland all being No.

    Cheers and best of luck for the long night ahead,

    DC
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Cheers.
    Sean_F said:

    I'm expecting Glasgow to be 50% Yes, compared to 45% overall.

    So, if Glasgow reaches 56% Yes, I suspect Yes have won.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited September 2014

    Dr. Spyn, I did suggest they'll end up having politicians toss the caber with the ridiculous and aggravating CGI this time.

    I had planned to stay up, but if there's sod all for 4 hours I might just get up if I happen to wake in the middle of the night (which is eminently possible).

    Stirring the porridge might be more appealing that Vine's graphics.
  • The blood pressure just rises and rises and those furred arteries must be taking a pounding.Alcohol sales up,ex-smokers start smoking again,and so it goes.Smells like victory.
    Bob Marley has it all worked out.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loFDn94oZJ0
  • Howard said:

    Looks like turnout is going to be stunning. Truly stunning.

    Indeed. It shows how much people care about this.
    See the Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/18/9-things-scottish-referendum-campaign-taught-us
    Old King Cole I'd agree with those points. I like Ruth Davidson too, as he says.
  • SeanT said:

    Irrelevant yet apposite anecdote: my girlfriend (who is in her mid-20s and, tho smart, doesn't especially care about politics) asked me yesterday, as she flew off to Amsterdam for the weekend, why I was so agitated about this vote.

    I explained to her that when she flies home again on Sunday she could be coming back to a different, diminished country.

    "Bollocks," she said "I am flying out of England and I will fly back in to England."

    It was oddly soothing. The wisdom of youth.

    My three kids - 16, 20 and 23 - do not give a toss about it.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    SeanT said:

    Irrelevant yet apposite anecdote: my girlfriend (who is in her mid-20s and, tho smart, doesn't especially care about politics) asked me yesterday, as she flew off to Amsterdam for the weekend, why I was so agitated about this vote.

    I explained to her that when she flies home again on Sunday she could be coming back to a different, diminished country.

    "Bollocks," she said "I am flying out of England and I will fly back in to England."

    It was oddly soothing. The wisdom of youth.

    My three kids - 16, 20 and 23 - do not give a toss about it.

    Mine do but then we're Nazis and support yes.
  • The Yes camp seems absolutely certain of victory, as it has for weeks. The reaction if by some freak No wins will be something to behold.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Howard said:

    MaxPB said:

    SeanT said:

    I am actively now shaking with fear and dread. I have a horrible feeling that probably 60%+ of the "normal electorate" would vote No, about 35% of the "normal electorate" would vote Yes, and the campaign probably hasn't shifted these one way or another. But there's several hundred thousand people who don't normally participate, or who are 16-17 year old children, who think it's all a bit of a laugh/social media sensation/don't understand the question/"don't like Tory scum", who are all piling on Yes for shits and giggles, and who as a result may well destroy the UK and wreck Scotland too.

    I'm going to get seriously hammered this evening, watch the post 10pm reactions, turn in about midnight and then see what the headlines are when Today comes on the radio alarm at 7am.

    What a surreal thing to do - go to bed and wake up to news of whether your country still exists!

    That's why I've gone for Yes. I think it is highly likely the pollsters have not picked up whats happening because this is a vote like no other. Why would hundreds of thousands of never-voted-before folk go out and vote for the status quo? They wouldn't is the answer.

    Er, presumably you didn't notice that IPSOS polled brand new voters, and discovered they were breaking 13% for YES and 10% for NO.
    But what about the other 77%?
    It was 13% of Yes voters made up by those who had never voted and 10% of No voters. The final figure was 6.1 vs 5.3 so 53-47 in favour of Yes. Much weaker than had been touted by Yes.
    Ah I see - thank you. It seems to me that the argument that the pollsters have missed whole swathes of people who all happen to be yes supporters is not terribly convincing. But we'll soon know for sure.....
    Are they thinking of very deprived people who are not online and don't have a phone or mobile and who don't normally vote but that the SNP have got out? Bottom 10% by income.
    I don't believe that 10% of scots don't have either mobile or landline. I don't know the true figure but I'd guess its nearer 1%. And why should we assume they are all yes supporters? Many of them will be pensioners.
    Yes has done better among the very deprived than No. Looks like Yes' invisible advantage they were relying on is more reliable than just hoping there are a lot of shy No's I suspect.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    edited September 2014
    Dr. Spyn, ah, but if Charlotte Hawkins and Sarah Jane Mee were discussing matters I'm sure it'd keep my attention.

    Edited extra bit: I am aware Hawkins left Sky for ITV, alas.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Where have all the nats on this thread gone ?

    #turnip
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Actually there are increasing indications that turnout may not prove to be quite as massive as once thought. There was incredie turnout first thing this morning but there are indications this has tailed off a bit. Outside a poling station now waiting for final figures and it is pretty much deserted.

    Had a more difficult session of GOTV since I last posted where there was some slippage to yes and another where the don't knows had broken our way heavily. Basically good areas have got better and bad areas have got worse.
  • If Stuart Dickson really wants a yes vote then why the hell is he dicking around on political betting.com while the polls are still open?
  • The Yes camp seems absolutely certain of victory, as it has for weeks. The reaction if by some freak No wins will be something to behold.

    Still impossible to say who will win though I think its 51 for YES. I think the losing side (yes OR no) will be disappointed - depressed for quite a while indeed. That's what makes this completely different.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,387

    viewcode said:

    Anybody mulling over the importance of >85% turnout may recall the experience of Bob Worcester, who on the US Presidential election night of 2004 called the election for John Kerry, only to be discomfited by the disproportionately large turnout later in the day/evening (see here).

    If there is a large turnout then that will skew the final result and (given the closeness) will tip the result either way. I understand from people commenting herein that turnout is large. What I want to know is what is their age profile of these voters. If there are more older voters at a time-of-day when older voters are fewer then that would indicate "No". If there are more younger voters at a time-of-day when younger voters are fewer then that would indicate "Yes".

    So. What is the age profile of the turnout by time-of-day and how does it compare to previous elections?

    God, I remember that. Went to sleep and then woke up to find Bush had it almost in the bag. Gutted.

    If turnout is higher than predicted, I have to say that favours Yes. The demographics of those who don't normally vote will be on their side.
    I hope you are wrong. I fear that you are right.
  • Where have all the nats on this thread gone ?

    #turnip


    Busy voting?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    I'm sick, just been caught in a thunderstorm not on the last forecast I saw and so drenched through, and am operating on 4 hours of sleep. Appropriate context for witnessing the end of the Union I think - if No do win tomorrow, I will be interested to see how much it may temporarily provide succor to my sickly body. Fortunately, already being at a low ebb, I doubt my disconsolate reaction to the likely scenario will make things worse at least.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Howard said:

    What depresses me is the thought of BBC commentators such as Brian Taylor (the white haired Scottish commentator) or Nick Robinson waxing lyrical for about 4 hours before the results are in (10pm-2am) about how wondrous a thing the turnout is and how it shows a magical level of engagement....a truly historic day etc etc.

    But what is depressing me is the thought of watching Jeremy Vine leaping around the electronic graphics like a headless chicken, accompanied by Emily Matliss acting as a political weathergirl.
    I never object to watching Emily Maitless, whatever she's doing!
  • Maddocio said:

    If Stuart Dickson really wants a yes vote then why the hell is he dicking around on political betting.com while the polls are still open?

    Doesn't Stuart live in Sweden?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Maddocio said:

    If Stuart Dickson really wants a yes vote then why the hell is he dicking around on political betting.com while the polls are still open?

    he doesn't live in Scotland.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    hucks67 said:

    Has anyone got a link to the expected declaration times?

    It was in a link posted a few days ago. I think they are all due to come in, between 2am to 6am. But warning have been made that the final declaration may not be until later in the morning, if there are delays in getting boxes over from some of the islands.
    I thought Ms Pitcaithley was going to declare the final result when one side had clearly won. If no is 40000 ahead with just the Western Isles (or whatever it's called these days) to come then their views are going to count bugger all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited September 2014

    Where have all the nats on this thread gone ?

    #turnip


    Busy voting?

    Pre-celebration preparations?
This discussion has been closed.