Could it be that the next PM is NOT an Oxford Grad? – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Wallace on just 12% is your strong third ?HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third0 -
He’s not stupid, he’s just getting old and starting to show that to a worldwide audience. It’s sad to watch.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am heading to 80 but really how can he be so stupidSandpit said:
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.FrancisUrquhart said:Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ1 -
As I said Wallace already a clear third, Sunak beats Truss head to head by less than 5% and no Sunak v Wallace figures givenBig_G_NorthWales said:
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1545460754857578498?t=pG5MK2do3yAzsn7Oqax8zA&s=19HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third0 -
Who gets your vote?HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third0 -
I was aware that there was a tangled situation with the Welsh Greens, but not the specifics. Does sound a bit of a mess.YBarddCwsc said:
Bizarrely, the Welsh portion of the EnglandandWales Greens now believe in independence for Wales, but voted against organising as a separate Welsh Party.LostPassword said:
There aren't rUKGs. There are NI Greens and E&W Greens.Carnyx said:
TBF the Scottish Greens are somewhat more mainstream than the rUKGs.glw said:
That's odd I could have sworn there were people saying the German Greens are different, they aren't mad like the ones we have.FrancisUrquhart said:The SDP-Green coalition has won a vote in the Bundestag backing more coal burning so that the three remaining nuclear plants can be switched off as planned this year. Climate targets may have to be abandoned as a result.
https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/1545345583262695424?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ
The EnglandandWales Green party is the most Cymrophobic party in Wales at the moment.0 -
conservatives only ever pick oxford graduates as leader so it will be sunak, hunt or trussalgarkirk said:
If you count those then you can have a 6 a side Eton wall game, Oxbridge v Rest of the World. I'll back the side with Mordaunt in it.Richard_Tyndall said:
You beat me to it.algarkirk said:Here is the list (only first degrees count)
Berry - Sheffield
Zahawi - UCL
Braverman - Cambridge
Javid - Exeter
Badenoch - Sussex
Truss - Oxford
Hunt - Oxford
Tugendhat - Bristol
Baker - Southampton
Sunak - Oxford
Mordaunt - Reading
Wallace - (RMA Sandhurst)
Same list with second degrees included.
Wallace - Sandhurst
Mordaunt - Reading
Sunak - Oxford/Stanford
Baker - Southampton/Oxford
Tugendhat - Bristol/Cambridge
Hunt - Oxford
Truss - Oxford
Badenach - Sussex/Birkbeck
Javid - Exeter
Braverman - Cambridge/Sorbonne
Zahawi - UCL
Berry - Sheffield0 -
Joe Biden making another gaffe, is as startling, as him getting another convertible.
OR Boris Johnson getting a hummer.1 -
And we’ve have ended up with the f…up he’s currently making of transport, being reflected across the wider economy?rcs1000 said:
Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
South Carolina say "hi y'all!"rcs1000 said:
It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.Leon said:
Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of HereSandpit said:
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.FrancisUrquhart said:Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ
Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches
Shape Up, Merika
Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.
And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.
Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.1 -
Just 12%HYUFD said:
As I said Wallace already a clear third, Sunak beats Truss head to head by less than 5% and no Sunak v Wallace figures givenBig_G_NorthWales said:
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1545460754857578498?t=pG5MK2do3yAzsn7Oqax8zA&s=19HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
Oliver Dowden just announced support for Rishi0 -
Major, IDS, Churchill, Howard, Chamberlain, Baldwin and Disraeli say helloKevinB said:
conservatives only ever pick oxford graduates as leader so it will be sunak, hunt or trussalgarkirk said:
If you count those then you can have a 6 a side Eton wall game, Oxbridge v Rest of the World. I'll back the side with Mordaunt in it.Richard_Tyndall said:
You beat me to it.algarkirk said:Here is the list (only first degrees count)
Berry - Sheffield
Zahawi - UCL
Braverman - Cambridge
Javid - Exeter
Badenoch - Sussex
Truss - Oxford
Hunt - Oxford
Tugendhat - Bristol
Baker - Southampton
Sunak - Oxford
Mordaunt - Reading
Wallace - (RMA Sandhurst)
Same list with second degrees included.
Wallace - Sandhurst
Mordaunt - Reading
Sunak - Oxford/Stanford
Baker - Southampton/Oxford
Tugendhat - Bristol/Cambridge
Hunt - Oxford
Truss - Oxford
Badenach - Sussex/Birkbeck
Javid - Exeter
Braverman - Cambridge/Sorbonne
Zahawi - UCL
Berry - Sheffield1 -
there are no homophobes posting on PBSeaShantyIrish2 said:
My I ask (gently) do you think that there are zero homophobic people posting on PB?Casino_Royale said:
My point was that when you say 'Woke is a problem ' the usual response of the Woke is to say 'what's Woke?' and then when you give examples of its dogmatic, obsessive and divisive nature to say 'so you think racism/ sexism/ homophobia is ok then?'.kle4 said:
Er, no. Someone was celebrating the idea of propaganda (their word) use for a 'populist' government to repeal gay marriage, because it was accepted a majority do not and would not back it (and thus is not populist at all).Casino_Royale said:
Who's a homophobe?dixiedean said:I celebrate the diversity of having open homophobes on the site.
Which means I'm a metropolitan liberal who doesn't understand the Red Wall.
Or summat.
Still. It'll be different in the 2030's old fella me lad.
Another classic sign of being Woke: saying that anyone who objects to Woke is a bigot.
Woke has nothing to do with it. I'm opposed to a lot of silly stuff that bears the woke label, but this had nothing to do with it. Unless knowing gay people is a 'metropolitan bubble' thing is thought to be a sensible point.
This is a classic sign of being Woke. It's totally impervious to criticism or reason.
Or are you objecting to someone being charged with homophobia on here due to something they post?
Seems to me, from my perspective, that you are very close to saying, that anyone alleging that someone or something is anti-gay, is ipso facto woke. Is that incorrect re: your views?0 -
WallaceSandpit said:
Who gets your vote?HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third1 -
I agree and can sympathise but he is the POTUSSandpit said:
He’s not stupid, he’s just getting old and starting to show that to a worldwide audience. It’s sad to watch.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am heading to 80 but really how can he be so stupidSandpit said:
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.FrancisUrquhart said:Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ1 -
That’s a truly poignant story. I feel like crying. I need a tissueAndy_JS said:FPT
Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.
"Sean Thomas
How Boris Johnson changed my life
8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life6 -
BorisSandpit said:
Who gets your vote?HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third1 -
Oh God, don't tell me he thought Abe was holding kids underground in a pizza place...
"The alleged gunman, named as Tetsuya Yamagami, 41, believed Abe was part of the group and shot him for that reason, they said, without naming the group."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-620981000 -
I wouldn't agree the 4th, but agree the first 3.kinabalu said:
With my 4 hats -nico679 said:If it has to be a Leaver for the Tory membership then I think Sunak seems a bit more pragmatic and less likely to be divisive and in constant conflict with the EU .
So as a Remainer I find him the most palatable of the Leavers so far who are expected to put their names forward .
Betting: I want Mordaunt
Labour: I want Truss
Country: I want Hunt
Heart: I want the Saj
Sunak would be OK. He isn't a total prick.0 -
Crying isn’t the reason you need the tissue.Leon said:
That’s a truly poignant story. I feel like crying. I need a tissueAndy_JS said:FPT
Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.
"Sean Thomas
How Boris Johnson changed my life
8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life5 -
Even more powerful than SCOTUS??Sandpit said:
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.FrancisUrquhart said:Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ0 -
Flaw in your theory is "ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire".rcs1000 said:
Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
South Carolina say "hi y'all!"rcs1000 said:
It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.Leon said:
Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of HereSandpit said:
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.FrancisUrquhart said:Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ
Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches
Shape Up, Merika
Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.
And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.
Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
Seeing as how that the record shows that, next to getting a bad batch of maple syrup, about the LAST thing that the flinty voters of New Hampshire want to do, is simply ratify whatever fool choice the corn-fed hicks of Iowa have made.0 -
With all the talk about Boris in the last ten years, I think it's Natasha's time to shine. And failing her, the Moose or Squirrel.Big_G_NorthWales said:
BorisSandpit said:
Who gets your vote?HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
(This reference is not for da yoof...)0 -
It’s very brave of him to come clean on his true relationship with BorisSandpit said:
Crying isn’t the reason you need the tissue.Leon said:
That’s a truly poignant story. I feel like crying. I need a tissueAndy_JS said:FPT
Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.
"Sean Thomas
How Boris Johnson changed my life
8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life1 -
He's afraid they will, because that shits on his worldview and will confuse him.williamglenn said:Woke racism from Jo Maugham:
3 -
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not standHYUFD said:
WallaceSandpit said:
Who gets your vote?HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
We should know this next few days0 -
What if he doesn't run?HYUFD said:
WallaceSandpit said:
Who gets your vote?HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
I don't get the vibe from him that he wants it.0 -
I always wondered why Boris's hair was so messy. It turned out he was using Leon's Patent Hair Gel (tm).Sandpit said:
Crying isn’t the reason you need the tissue.Leon said:
That’s a truly poignant story. I feel like crying. I need a tissueAndy_JS said:FPT
Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.
"Sean Thomas
How Boris Johnson changed my life
8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life1 -
I don't see why this is related to how long the lockdown lasted but I agree 80% was too generous. 60% was more appropriate provided there were top ups for people on low income.KevinB said:Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long
0 -
Would Buttigieg have won the general against Trump?rcs1000 said:
Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
South Carolina say "hi y'all!"rcs1000 said:
It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.Leon said:
Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of HereSandpit said:
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.FrancisUrquhart said:Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ
Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches
Shape Up, Merika
Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.
And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.
Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.0 -
Except that Buttigieg was within a few percent of winning New Hampshire: he went down 26 to 24. If he'd had the momentum of clearly winning Iowa, then I think he would have comfortably beaten Sanders there.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Flaw in your theory is "ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire".rcs1000 said:
Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
South Carolina say "hi y'all!"rcs1000 said:
It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.Leon said:
Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of HereSandpit said:
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.FrancisUrquhart said:Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ
Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches
Shape Up, Merika
Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.
And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.
Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
Seeing as how that the record shows that, next to getting a bad batch of maple syrup, about the LAST thing that the flinty voters of New Hampshire want to do, is simply ratify whatever fool choice the corn-fed hicks of Iowa have made.0 -
Richmond (Yorks) should be Richmondshire.rcs1000 said:
Yes, the two Richmond seats should be delineated as:kle4 said:I am opposed to Sunak becoming PM because I am angry the BCE keep naming his constituency Richmond (Yorks) and don't want to see it all the time.
I don't think there is any other constituency in that style.
Richmond Up North
Richmond Down South
It'd solve all confusion.0 -
I have a feeling Mr and Mrs Rishi might have a slightly more refined taste than the previous occupantsDecrepiterJohnL said:
Rishi can afford to buy his own wallpaper. Ironically, he won't have to because the previous tenants had the place done up.RochdalePioneers said:
Rishi talks human. Yes OK so he is a gazillionaire who doesn't know how contactless payments work. But half the candidates are gormless about something, and more than half downright nasty.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Don't tell @HYUFDRochdalePioneers said:Anyway, having watched his money no object campaign video I am once again declaring that I am Ready For Rishi.
If the Tories are serious about winning the next election, you need Rishi Sunak. A northern MP who has shown that he can parachute cash where its needed and puts levelling up front and centre. But he's also clear that we can't mortgage our kids' futures by spending daft.
Sunak is the bridge between classic Toryism and the new north. He will show how he was whipped along to make mad pledges by the now ousted liar who was obsessed with boosterism. Thus pleasing the fiscal conservatives.
But he is relatively young, photogenic, affable and serious. Which is what we need. Way better than so many of the likely candidates already.1 -
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.Andy_Cooke said:Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.0 -
Like how Carrie keeps putting on such a brave face?Leon said:
It’s very brave of him to come clean on his true relationship with BorisSandpit said:
Crying isn’t the reason you need the tissue.Leon said:
That’s a truly poignant story. I feel like crying. I need a tissueAndy_JS said:FPT
Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.
"Sean Thomas
How Boris Johnson changed my life
8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life
Edit - OK am now swearing off such jokes for an unspecified period . . .0 -
It's his one chance, and he's got an open road.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not standHYUFD said:
WallaceSandpit said:
Who gets your vote?HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
We should know this next few days
If he passes it up now he'll never get it.1 -
Crusty!Pulpstar said:
Richmond (Yorks) should be Richmondshire.rcs1000 said:
Yes, the two Richmond seats should be delineated as:kle4 said:I am opposed to Sunak becoming PM because I am angry the BCE keep naming his constituency Richmond (Yorks) and don't want to see it all the time.
I don't think there is any other constituency in that style.
Richmond Up North
Richmond Down South
It'd solve all confusion.0 -
He may not want it but we will know soon enoughCasino_Royale said:
It's his one chance, and he's got an open road.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not standHYUFD said:
WallaceSandpit said:
Who gets your vote?HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
We should know this next few days
If he passes it up now he'll never get it.0 -
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.Casino_Royale said:
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.Andy_Cooke said:Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.0 -
Jobbing hack gives thanks to Boris Johnson.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life
Mr Thomas does have a way with words.2 -
The head to head looks like Rishi v Truss, unless the Stop Rishi campaign doesn’t fail.Big_G_NorthWales said:
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1545460754857578498?t=pG5MK2do3yAzsn7Oqax8zA&s=19HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
It’s beginning but to take shape now?
20 sigs needed should wipe out the “only entered cause of a bet with my mates to do it” candidates.
It would soon be the super six, any one of which could be the next Prime minister.
Would it favour lesser known candidates to come through, if it was just for LOTO, but as it’s for PM likely last 2 from great offices of state?
Would it help us bettors to build a Reasons for/reasons against chart, like they have in Horse Racing?
Of the top 3 early on, it looks like Rishi is top weighted with the “disloyal” tag? Mourdant may struggle to get over the Subcommittee for Woke Activities hazard. And Wallace could fail the ‘wardrobe of “full tonto”tweets and voting’ test.
Which means it may not be any of those three big favourites? Which means betting value can yet be out there?0 -
The wallpaper wasn't that big of share of the bill. Presumably Carrie will keep most of the stuff for the next house.Roger said:
I have a feeling Mr and Mrs Rishi might have a slightly more refined taste than the previous occupantsDecrepiterJohnL said:
Rishi can afford to buy his own wallpaper. Ironically, he won't have to because the previous tenants had the place done up.RochdalePioneers said:
Rishi talks human. Yes OK so he is a gazillionaire who doesn't know how contactless payments work. But half the candidates are gormless about something, and more than half downright nasty.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Don't tell @HYUFDRochdalePioneers said:Anyway, having watched his money no object campaign video I am once again declaring that I am Ready For Rishi.
If the Tories are serious about winning the next election, you need Rishi Sunak. A northern MP who has shown that he can parachute cash where its needed and puts levelling up front and centre. But he's also clear that we can't mortgage our kids' futures by spending daft.
Sunak is the bridge between classic Toryism and the new north. He will show how he was whipped along to make mad pledges by the now ousted liar who was obsessed with boosterism. Thus pleasing the fiscal conservatives.
But he is relatively young, photogenic, affable and serious. Which is what we need. Way better than so many of the likely candidates already.
Though when she gets Lulu in to titivate the new pad, Johnson may pop his clogs with apoplexy. Indeed, that might be part of a cunning plan...0 -
think oxford graduates are helped as they have more friends in the media....this helps to swing elections their wayrcs1000 said:
It's not PMs, it's election winners. So Callaghan isn't there either.CorrectHorseBattery said:Why did you remove Gordon Brown? He didn't go to Oxford.
1 -
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.HYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.OnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544984543555371010?s=20&t=Hkrayn5myVcMmAbISYCotw1 -
And with his wrist.dr_spyn said:Jobbing hack gives thanks to Boris Johnson.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life
Mr Thomas does have a way with words.3 -
South Carolina still says "hi y'all!" As well as "cheese grits" and "hush puppies" IF you're lucky.rcs1000 said:
Except that Buttigieg was within a few percent of winning New Hampshire: he went down 26 to 24. If he'd had the momentum of clearly winning Iowa, then I think he would have comfortably beaten Sanders there.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Flaw in your theory is "ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire".rcs1000 said:
Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
South Carolina say "hi y'all!"rcs1000 said:
It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.Leon said:
Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of HereSandpit said:
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.FrancisUrquhart said:Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ
Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches
Shape Up, Merika
Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.
And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.
Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
Seeing as how that the record shows that, next to getting a bad batch of maple syrup, about the LAST thing that the flinty voters of New Hampshire want to do, is simply ratify whatever fool choice the corn-fed hicks of Iowa have made.0 -
If I was a Tory member (which thank the Lord I'm not sir) I would definitely vote for Rishi. In fact he's the only one on that list that I would consider voting for. I have never heard him utter the words 'He got all the big calls right' which at least makes him eligibleAndy_JS said:Channel 4 / Opinium survey of Tory members finds:
(a) a majority wanted Johnson to stay as leader
(b) Rishi Sunak has a slight lead with 25%, over Liz Truss.2 -
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possibleJosiasJessop said:
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.Casino_Royale said:
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.Andy_Cooke said:Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.0 -
Once purloined a William Hague yardsign in that constituency. They were littering the landscape!Omnium said:
Crusty!Pulpstar said:
Richmond (Yorks) should be Richmondshire.rcs1000 said:
Yes, the two Richmond seats should be delineated as:kle4 said:I am opposed to Sunak becoming PM because I am angry the BCE keep naming his constituency Richmond (Yorks) and don't want to see it all the time.
I don't think there is any other constituency in that style.
Richmond Up North
Richmond Down South
It'd solve all confusion.0 -
I find it odd that you have that many conversations about gay people amongst the crowd in your gym. Is it attached to the Blue Oyster?KevinB said:
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possibleJosiasJessop said:
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.Casino_Royale said:
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.Andy_Cooke said:Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.1 -
I’m glad they’re going to make the nominations needed a minimum of 20 so this should speed things along .
As for traitor candidate Zahawi gets the gold medal .
0 -
pay people a lot to do nothing they will support more lockdowns and pretend to be scared of a virus...simpleOmnium said:
Why do you say that?KevinB said:Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long
0 -
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader againRochdalePioneers said:
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.HYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.OnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544984543555371010?s=20&t=Hkrayn5myVcMmAbISYCotw1 -
It’s beginning to take shape now. The head to head looks like Rishi v Truss, if the Stop Rishi Campaign fails.
20 sigs needed should wipe out the “only entered cause of a bet with my mates to do it” candidates.
It would soon be the super six, any one of which could be the next Prime minister.
Would it favour lesser known candidates like Tugendhat to come through, if it was just for LOTO, but as it’s for PM, likely last 2 is from great offices of state?
Would it help us bettors to build a Reasons for/reasons against chart, like they have in Horse Racing?
Of the top 3 early on, it looks like Rishi is top weighted with the “disloyal” tag? Mourdant may struggle to get over the Subcommittee for Woke Activities hazard. And Wallace could fail the ‘wardrobe of “full tonto”tweets and voting’ test.
Which means it may not be any of those three big favourites? Which means betting value can yet be out there?0 -
At least he'd have been able to read a teleprompter.Sandpit said:
And we’ve have ended up with the f…up he’s currently making of transport, being reflected across the wider economy?rcs1000 said:
Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
South Carolina say "hi y'all!"rcs1000 said:
It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.Leon said:
Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of HereSandpit said:
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.FrancisUrquhart said:Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ
Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches
Shape Up, Merika
Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.
And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.
Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.1 -
You hope he won't run, the NATO job is over a year away.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not standHYUFD said:
WallaceSandpit said:
Who gets your vote?HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
We should know this next few days
While Sunak has set off on his private jet after his slick launch, Wallace is checking the engine and getting the supplies ready0 -
no many identify the gays in the gym and subtly avoid them...maybe they move away if they are in the changing rooms next to them..that sort of thing...accompanied sometimes with a bit of innuendoJosiasJessop said:
I find it odd that you have that many conversations about gay people amongst the crowd in your gym. Is it attached to the Blue Oyster?KevinB said:
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possibleJosiasJessop said:
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.Casino_Royale said:
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.Andy_Cooke said:Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.0 -
Wasn't Biden famously gaffe-prone even as a younger politician?SeaShantyIrish2 said:Joe Biden making another gaffe, is as startling, as him getting another convertible.
OR Boris Johnson getting a hummer.0 -
I think Zahawi shat the bed by taking CoE the night before.nico679 said:I’m glad they’re going to make the nominations needed a minimum of 20 so this should speed things along .
As for traitor candidate Zahawi gets the gold medal .2 -
Equally there is zero chance other than 2023 of getting the NATO job and he may well just want that..Casino_Royale said:
It's his one chance, and he's got an open road.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not standHYUFD said:
WallaceSandpit said:
Who gets your vote?HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
We should know this next few days
If he passes it up now he'll never get it.0 -
Buttigieg pulled out on the eve of Super Tuesday to ensure that a moderate candidate - Biden - would beat Sanders.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
South Carolina still says "hi y'all!" As well as "cheese grits" and "hush puppies" IF you're lucky.rcs1000 said:
Except that Buttigieg was within a few percent of winning New Hampshire: he went down 26 to 24. If he'd had the momentum of clearly winning Iowa, then I think he would have comfortably beaten Sanders there.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Flaw in your theory is "ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire".rcs1000 said:
Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
South Carolina say "hi y'all!"rcs1000 said:
It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.Leon said:
Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of HereSandpit said:
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.FrancisUrquhart said:Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ
Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches
Shape Up, Merika
Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.
And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.
Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
Seeing as how that the record shows that, next to getting a bad batch of maple syrup, about the LAST thing that the flinty voters of New Hampshire want to do, is simply ratify whatever fool choice the corn-fed hicks of Iowa have made.
There would have been no need to do that if Bloomberg had not been in the race.
I'm also not convinced that a Biden who had failed to make the top two in Iowa, New Hampshire or Nevada would have pulled out 49% in SC.0 -
How will Wallace overcome the Remainer tag . I thought the membership would only vote for a Leaver . Don’t get me wrong I like Wallace and he’s done a good job in defence.HYUFD said:
You hope he won't run, the NATO job is over a year away.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not standHYUFD said:
WallaceSandpit said:
Who gets your vote?HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
We should know this next few days
While Sunak has set off on his private jet after his slick launch, Wallace is checking the engine and getting the supplies ready0 -
I don't suppose there's much to choose between them in terms of Tory politics, but I instinctively prefer Javid to Sunak (let alone Zahawi) when it comes to the ex-Chancellors in the contest. Maybe it's simply because Javid was the only one willing to tell Cummings where he could stuff it.
Really not seeing why everyone else is positive about Sunak (except for those with 250-1 betting slips, obviously).1 -
Presumably the weekend papers are full of leadership pitches. Big Truss interview in a friendly paper?0
-
So he wanked himself so hard he ended up in hospital. We've all done that...Andy_JS said:FPT
Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.
"Sean Thomas
How Boris Johnson changed my life
8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life
1 -
Why do you think these people now lie to internet pollsters about their views on homosexuality?KevinB said:
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possibleJosiasJessop said:
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.Casino_Royale said:
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.Andy_Cooke said:Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.1 -
Yes, you can smell the fear there.Casino_Royale said:
He's afraid they will, because that shits on his worldview and will confuse him.williamglenn said:Woke racism from Jo Maugham:
0 -
I have NEVER wanked Sean Thomas.RochdalePioneers said:
So he wanked himself so hard he ended up in hospital. We've all done that...Andy_JS said:FPT
Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.
"Sean Thomas
How Boris Johnson changed my life
8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life4 -
I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.HYUFD said:
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader againRochdalePioneers said:
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.HYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.OnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544984543555371010?s=20&t=Hkrayn5myVcMmAbISYCotw1 -
Irresponsible, lazy and discriminatory. Most workers got 80%, while recent graduates and many of the self-employed got nothing, apparently because it "got too hard". It reminded me of Cameron resigning because he didn't want to do the hard stuff.KevinB said:Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long
0 -
they say what they are expected to say and what is the socially fashionable thing to say thats all...as Boris Johnson said yesterday the herd instinct and urge to conform is powerful in humans...why we are so susceptible to propoganda....Hitler knew thisrcs1000 said:
Why do you think these people now lie to internet pollsters about their views on homosexuality?KevinB said:
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possibleJosiasJessop said:
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.Casino_Royale said:
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.Andy_Cooke said:Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.0 -
Yet.rcs1000 said:
I have NEVER wanked Sean Thomas.RochdalePioneers said:
So he wanked himself so hard he ended up in hospital. We've all done that...Andy_JS said:FPT
Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.
"Sean Thomas
How Boris Johnson changed my life
8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life2 -
If defeat is inevitable best to make the most of the next two and a bit years with a proper Tory is a plausible strategy.RochdalePioneers said:
I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.HYUFD said:
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader againRochdalePioneers said:
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.HYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.OnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544984543555371010?s=20&t=Hkrayn5myVcMmAbISYCotw0 -
As a single man I just called it Friday.RochdalePioneers said:
So he wanked himself so hard he ended up in hospital. We've all done that...Andy_JS said:FPT
Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.
"Sean Thomas
How Boris Johnson changed my life
8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life
3 -
The First Rule of Politics is Never Believe Anything Until It's Been Officially Denied...rcs1000 said:
I have NEVER wanked Sean Thomas.RochdalePioneers said:
So he wanked himself so hard he ended up in hospital. We've all done that...Andy_JS said:FPT
Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.
"Sean Thomas
How Boris Johnson changed my life
8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life5 -
I actually HAVE wanked Sean Thomas. And more than once. It will probably be my one claim to fame, chiselled on my gravercs1000 said:
I have NEVER wanked Sean Thomas.RochdalePioneers said:
So he wanked himself so hard he ended up in hospital. We've all done that...Andy_JS said:FPT
Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.
"Sean Thomas
How Boris Johnson changed my life
8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life4 -
How do you (and they) know they are the 'gays' ? Are they wearing outrageous moustaches and have handkerchiefs hanging out of their pockets? Or do they go around the gym shouting: "I'M SO GAY AND YOU HAD BETTER AVOID ME IN THE SHOWERS BECAUSE YOU ARE SO UTTERLY IRRESISTABLE?"KevinB said:
no many identify the gays in the gym and subtly avoid them...maybe they move away if they are in the changing rooms next to them..that sort of thing...accompanied sometimes with a bit of innuendoJosiasJessop said:
I find it odd that you have that many conversations about gay people amongst the crowd in your gym. Is it attached to the Blue Oyster?KevinB said:
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possibleJosiasJessop said:
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.Casino_Royale said:
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.Andy_Cooke said:Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
And where do the bisexuals come into this? Do they have to avoid them in the showers as well? Oh, why won't anyone think of the bisexuals...
2 -
We won't tell hun. It's just our little secret xLeon said:
I actually HAVE wanked Sean Thomas. And more than once. It will probably be my one claim to fame, chiselled on my gravercs1000 said:
I have NEVER wanked Sean Thomas.RochdalePioneers said:
So he wanked himself so hard he ended up in hospital. We've all done that...Andy_JS said:FPT
Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.
"Sean Thomas
How Boris Johnson changed my life
8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life1 -
Actually you will find plenty of red wall voters are socially conservative, Brexiteers who want tighter immigration controls and strong local communities and traditional values. Not metropolitan liberals and globalists like you and Sunak and they are the key swing votersRochdalePioneers said:
I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.HYUFD said:
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader againRochdalePioneers said:
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.HYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.OnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544984543555371010?s=20&t=Hkrayn5myVcMmAbISYCotw0 -
So, Wallace is a Remainer who really wants a different job?nico679 said:
How will Wallace overcome the Remainer tag . I thought the membership would only vote for a Leaver . Don’t get me wrong I like Wallace and he’s done a good job in defence.HYUFD said:
You hope he won't run, the NATO job is over a year away.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not standHYUFD said:
WallaceSandpit said:
Who gets your vote?HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
We should know this next few days
While Sunak has set off on his private jet after his slick launch, Wallace is checking the engine and getting the supplies ready
Why does anyone think he will stand for PM?0 -
In your professional experience, just how common are injuries from this & similar causes?Foxy said:
And with his wrist.dr_spyn said:Jobbing hack gives thanks to Boris Johnson.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life
Mr Thomas does have a way with words.0 -
we have a bit of a rumour mill in our gym...who does what in their erm nightime activities...its pretty reliable....and of course there are the pretty obvious ones tooJosiasJessop said:
How do you (and they) know they are the 'gays' ? Are they wearing outrageous moustaches and have handkerchiefs hanging out of their pockets? Or do they go around the gym shouting: "I'M SO GAY AND YOU HAD BETTER AVOID ME IN THE SHOWERS BECAUSE YOU ARE SO UTTERLY IRRESISTABLE?"KevinB said:
no many identify the gays in the gym and subtly avoid them...maybe they move away if they are in the changing rooms next to them..that sort of thing...accompanied sometimes with a bit of innuendoJosiasJessop said:
I find it odd that you have that many conversations about gay people amongst the crowd in your gym. Is it attached to the Blue Oyster?KevinB said:
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possibleJosiasJessop said:
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.Casino_Royale said:
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.Andy_Cooke said:Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
And where do the bisexuals come into this? Do they have to avoid them in the showers as well? Oh, why won't anyone think of the bisexuals...0 -
As he backed Brexit fully after the referendum and was loyal to Boris to the endnico679 said:
How will Wallace overcome the Remainer tag . I thought the membership would only vote for a Leaver . Don’t get me wrong I like Wallace and he’s done a good job in defence.HYUFD said:
You hope he won't run, the NATO job is over a year away.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not standHYUFD said:
WallaceSandpit said:
Who gets your vote?HYUFD said:
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back RishiBeibheirli_C said:
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He very well may and confound your panicHYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDSOnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
We should know this next few days
While Sunak has set off on his private jet after his slick launch, Wallace is checking the engine and getting the supplies ready0 -
Thing with Tory Party members, aside from one or rwo oddballs who shit the bed and quit in outrage over whomever gets the gig its irrelevant if they wanted Boris to stay, they are all voting Tory regardless. The poison was 'out here', thats where they are aiming to regain votes with a new leader. Notable that Redfields 'red wall' polling has shown the same drop in support generally as nationally. Of recent times there has been no mysterious holding up of the vote amongst Red Wallers so no reason to suspect the tories will suddenly drop support there.
The particular issue is in wealthy, leafy southern and SW seats.0 -
RISHI now has 14 supporters, including Mark Harper, Liam Fox, Bob Neil, and Oliver Dowden.
TRUSS has 6, including Dehenna Davison and Therese Coffey.
TUGEDHAT has 5, including Damian Green and Aaron Bell.
BRAVERMAN has 4, including Desmond Swayne. So does MORDAUNT, including Andrea Leadsom and Michael Fabricant.
HUNT has 3, including Andrew Mitchell.
WALLACE and ZAHAWI have 2 apiece.4 -
That's a very common phenomenon: people say different things to phone and online pollsters. It's why the online pollsters got Brexit right, and the phone pollsters did not.KevinB said:
they say what they are expected to say and what is the socially fashionable thing to say thats all...as Boris Johnson said yesterday the herd instinct and urge to conform is powerful in humans...why we are so susceptible to propoganda....Hitler knew thisrcs1000 said:
Why do you think these people now lie to internet pollsters about their views on homosexuality?KevinB said:
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possibleJosiasJessop said:
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.Casino_Royale said:
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.Andy_Cooke said:Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
There's only one teeny weeny problem with your view: the on-line pollsters give basically the same answers regarding homosexuality as do phone pollsters.
So: people don't lie to on-line pollsters about the death penalty or Brexit or trans-rights (all of which are examples of people feeling they have to give the "right" answer)... But they do about homosexuality.
That's your contention, right?0 -
As I've said, the passing of Boris is a paradigm for the passing of this Sean writer. It explains the anger and bewilderment about wokeness.Andy_JS said:FPT
Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.
"Sean Thomas
How Boris Johnson changed my life
8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life
The important lesson in life is to reinvent oneself and move on. I'm not sure Boris is capable of it because he totally lacks self-awareness but I expect Sean will be able to do so given time and reflection.
On a more serious point, Boris was something of a cult figure to a certain type, and age, of red wall voter. I'm not convinced any of the current contenders will be able to reach those parts that only he, from the tory party, could reach. So candidates may well be able to win back some of the traditional voters and the disgruntled, disaffected and downright angry voters of middle and southern Britain. But the red wall? I'm not so sure.
And that's why I'm fairly confident about Labour forming the next Government, either on their own or in coalition. The long 14 year reign of the Conservative Party will be at an end.0 -
How do you know it's reliable? Do you test them in the showers with the soap?KevinB said:
we have a bit of a rumour mill in our gym...who does what in their erm nightime activities...its pretty reliable....and of course there are the pretty obvious ones tooJosiasJessop said:
How do you (and they) know they are the 'gays' ? Are they wearing outrageous moustaches and have handkerchiefs hanging out of their pockets? Or do they go around the gym shouting: "I'M SO GAY AND YOU HAD BETTER AVOID ME IN THE SHOWERS BECAUSE YOU ARE SO UTTERLY IRRESISTABLE?"KevinB said:
no many identify the gays in the gym and subtly avoid them...maybe they move away if they are in the changing rooms next to them..that sort of thing...accompanied sometimes with a bit of innuendoJosiasJessop said:
I find it odd that you have that many conversations about gay people amongst the crowd in your gym. Is it attached to the Blue Oyster?KevinB said:
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possibleJosiasJessop said:
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.Casino_Royale said:
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.Andy_Cooke said:Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
And where do the bisexuals come into this? Do they have to avoid them in the showers as well? Oh, why won't anyone think of the bisexuals...
(Speaking as someone who has been accused of being gay several times in the past, sometimes for rather spurious reasons.)0 -
As has been said if you want the conservatives to win the next GE then Rishi is the one who could do itHYUFD said:
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader againRochdalePioneers said:
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.HYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.OnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544984543555371010?s=20&t=Hkrayn5myVcMmAbISYCotw
Watch his video and realise he is the very antithesis of the Little Englander attitude of some in the party0 -
Incredible. Where exactly? Want to make it my new screensaver!Leon said:The strange brief storm passes. Leaving a spectacular sunset
0 -
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.3 -
yes but to be considered a homophobe in our society is much worse than to be regarded as anti brexit. So people lie online toorcs1000 said:
That's a very common phenomenon: people say different things to phone and online pollsters. It's why the online pollsters got Brexit right, and the phone pollsters did not.KevinB said:
they say what they are expected to say and what is the socially fashionable thing to say thats all...as Boris Johnson said yesterday the herd instinct and urge to conform is powerful in humans...why we are so susceptible to propoganda....Hitler knew thisrcs1000 said:
Why do you think these people now lie to internet pollsters about their views on homosexuality?KevinB said:
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possibleJosiasJessop said:
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.Casino_Royale said:
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.Andy_Cooke said:Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
There's only one teeny weeny problem with your view: the on-line pollsters give basically the same answers regarding homosexuality as do phone pollsters.
So: people don't lie to on-line pollsters about the death penalty or Brexit or trans-rights (all of which are examples of people feeling they have to give the "right" answer)... But they do about homosexuality.
That's your contention, right?0 -
Its just that I know red wall voters. Having lived there. And they did not vote for traditional Conservatives. They voted for Brexit and then for the voice of Brexit, and they want the cash they were promised.HYUFD said:
Actually you will find plenty of red wall voters are socially conservative, Brexiteers who want tighter immigration controls and strong local communities and traditional values. Not metropolitan liberals and globalists like you and Sunak and they are the key swing votersRochdalePioneers said:
I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.HYUFD said:
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader againRochdalePioneers said:
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.HYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.OnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544984543555371010?s=20&t=Hkrayn5myVcMmAbISYCotw1 -
So why not zero? Why 60%?KevinB said:
pay people a lot to do nothing they will support more lockdowns and pretend to be scared of a virus...simpleOmnium said:
Why do you say that?KevinB said:Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long
0 -
and they also want socially conservative policies not "woke nonsense"RochdalePioneers said:
Its just that I know red wall voters. Having lived there. And they did not vote for traditional Conservatives. They voted for Brexit and then for the voice of Brexit, and they want the cash they were promised.HYUFD said:
Actually you will find plenty of red wall voters are socially conservative, Brexiteers who want tighter immigration controls and strong local communities and traditional values. Not metropolitan liberals and globalists like you and Sunak and they are the key swing votersRochdalePioneers said:
I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.HYUFD said:
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader againRochdalePioneers said:
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.HYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.OnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544984543555371010?s=20&t=Hkrayn5myVcMmAbISYCotw0 -
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2boulay said:I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.0 -
Isn’t it amazebombs? It’s on the south west side of inner Kotor Bay. Looks like a nuke has detonated over the mountainsSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Incredible. Where exactly? Want to make it my new screensaver!Leon said:The strange brief storm passes. Leaving a spectacular sunset
If you DM me your email addy I can send you a high res, given that you are so attached to Montenegro!0 -
He is a slick, ex banker metropolitan liberal, the exact opposite of what is needed to win back the redwallBig_G_NorthWales said:
As has been said if you want the conservatives to win the next GE then Rishi is the one who could do itHYUFD said:
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader againRochdalePioneers said:
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.HYUFD said:
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.OnlyLivingBoy said:It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544984543555371010?s=20&t=Hkrayn5myVcMmAbISYCotw
Watch his video and realise he is the very antithesis of the Little Englander attitude of some in the party1 -
Interesting that you’re backing Wally.HYUFD said:
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2boulay said:I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.0 -
then you have riots and the lockdown collapsesOmnium said:
So why not zero? Why 60%?KevinB said:
pay people a lot to do nothing they will support more lockdowns and pretend to be scared of a virus...simpleOmnium said:
Why do you say that?KevinB said:Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long
0 -
Only if he actually goes for it.HYUFD said:
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2boulay said:I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
He hasn’t even announced yet.
3
