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Could it be that the next PM is NOT an Oxford Grad? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sunak seems ridiculously short.

    So I have laid him.

    There’s always a stop someone? Stop Tarzan. Get Ken - Europhile traitor - get Portillo - stop Howard - knock Gove out - what DON’T we want? Angela Leadsome.

    Just watched ITN news and it was framed as “disloyal Sunak who brought down Boris.” He’s the “get the disloyal one” candidate.
    If Rishi in last two with Truss, Rishi is by far the better communicator, but she gets the “stop the traitor” votes. Pest did reveal 1st bar is 20 (TWENTY) nominations by the way.
    Sunak's slick 'Ready for Rishi' website has obviously been ready well before this launch.

    Just like Portillo he has launched straight out the blocks with a slick, liberal metropolitan focused campaign.

    However Tory members and most Tory MPs aren't looking for that now, they want a decent, straight laced traditional Tory who will return to Conservative values. Wallace could well be the IDS or Douglas Home or Major of this race therefore to Sunak's Portillo or Rab Butler or Heseltine.

    Is it fair to remark there is something a bit “Stop Rishi” creeping into your posts HY?

    Is it the fact Rishi did bare minimum helping Boris this year, knifed Boris occasionally with “I would not have used that remark” comments, and has clearly been working with others for weeks if not months on this video that makes you cross he is a bit disloyal? Or is it Rishi’s record in the treasury of wasting eye watering sums on fraud, presided over lack of due diligence whilst happy to roll around in the limelight of praise of taxpayers money he was throwing around like confetti that you don’t think deserves rewarding with the top job?
    He has been implacable opposed to Rishi for some reason all along

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Carnyx said:

    glw said:

    The SDP-Green coalition has won a vote in the Bundestag backing more coal burning so that the three remaining nuclear plants can be switched off as planned this year. Climate targets may have to be abandoned as a result.

    https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/1545345583262695424?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ

    That's odd I could have sworn there were people saying the German Greens are different, they aren't mad like the ones we have.
    TBF the Scottish Greens are somewhat more mainstream than the rUKGs.
    There aren't rUKGs. There are NI Greens and E&W Greens.
    Bizarrely, the Welsh portion of the EnglandandWales Greens now believe in independence for Wales, but voted against organising as a separate Welsh Party.

    The EnglandandWales Green party is the most Cymrophobic party in Wales at the moment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited July 2022

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    kle4 said:

    I am opposed to Sunak becoming PM because I am angry the BCE keep naming his constituency Richmond (Yorks) and don't want to see it all the time.

    I don't think there is any other constituency in that style.

    Yes, the two Richmond seats should be delineated as:

    Richmond Up North
    Richmond Down South

    It'd solve all confusion.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    FPT

    Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.

    "Sean Thomas
    How Boris Johnson changed my life
    8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1545460754857578498?t=pG5MK2do3yAzsn7Oqax8zA&s=19
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    nico679 said:

    If it has to be a Leaver for the Tory membership then I think Sunak seems a bit more pragmatic and less likely to be divisive and in constant conflict with the EU .

    So as a Remainer I find him the most palatable of the Leavers so far who are expected to put their names forward .

    With my 4 hats -

    Betting: I want Mordaunt
    Labour: I want Truss
    Country: I want Hunt
    Heart: I want the Saj
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited July 2022

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sunak seems ridiculously short.

    So I have laid him.

    There’s always a stop someone? Stop Tarzan. Get Ken - Europhile traitor - get Portillo - stop Howard - knock Gove out - what DON’T we want? Angela Leadsome.

    Just watched ITN news and it was framed as “disloyal Sunak who brought down Boris.” He’s the “get the disloyal one” candidate.
    If Rishi in last two with Truss, Rishi is by far the better communicator, but she gets the “stop the traitor” votes. Pest did reveal 1st bar is 20 (TWENTY) nominations by the way.
    Sunak's slick 'Ready for Rishi' website has obviously been ready well before this launch.

    Just like Portillo he has launched straight out the blocks with a slick, liberal metropolitan focused campaign.

    However Tory members and most Tory MPs aren't looking for that now, they want a decent, straight laced traditional Tory who will return to Conservative values. Wallace could well be the IDS or Douglas Home or Major of this race therefore to Sunak's Portillo or Rab Butler or Heseltine.

    Is it fair to remark there is something a bit “Stop Rishi” creeping into your posts HY?

    Is it the fact Rishi did bare minimum helping Boris this year, knifed Boris occasionally with “I would not have used that remark” comments, and has clearly been working with others for weeks if not months on this video that makes you cross he is a bit disloyal? Or is it Rishi’s record in the treasury of wasting eye watering sums on fraud, presided over lack of due diligence whilst happy to roll around in the limelight of praise of taxpayers money he was throwing around like confetti that you don’t think deserves rewarding with the top job?
    Stop x campaigns often win Tory leadership campaigns against early favourites.

    See the 'Stop Butler' behind the scenes campaign of 1963, the 'Stop Heseltine' campaign of 1990, the 'Stop Clarke' campaign of 1997, the 'Stop Portillo campaign of 2001 or arguably the 'Stop Davis' campaign of
    2005 or the 'Stop Boris' campaign of 2016
  • KevinBKevinB Posts: 109
    Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao

    https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ

    Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
    Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of Here

    Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches

    Shape Up, Merika
    It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.
    South Carolina say "hi y'all!"
    Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.

    Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.

    And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.

    Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.

    He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.

    However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.

    (And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    Wallace on just 12% is your strong third ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao

    https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ

    Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
    I am heading to 80 but really how can he be so stupid
    He’s not stupid, he’s just getting old and starting to show that to a worldwide audience. It’s sad to watch.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    KevinB said:

    Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long

    Why do you say that?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1545460754857578498?t=pG5MK2do3yAzsn7Oqax8zA&s=19
    As I said Wallace already a clear third, Sunak beats Truss head to head by less than 5% and no Sunak v Wallace figures given
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    Who gets your vote?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Carnyx said:

    glw said:

    The SDP-Green coalition has won a vote in the Bundestag backing more coal burning so that the three remaining nuclear plants can be switched off as planned this year. Climate targets may have to be abandoned as a result.

    https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/1545345583262695424?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ

    That's odd I could have sworn there were people saying the German Greens are different, they aren't mad like the ones we have.
    TBF the Scottish Greens are somewhat more mainstream than the rUKGs.
    There aren't rUKGs. There are NI Greens and E&W Greens.
    Bizarrely, the Welsh portion of the EnglandandWales Greens now believe in independence for Wales, but voted against organising as a separate Welsh Party.

    The EnglandandWales Green party is the most Cymrophobic party in Wales at the moment.
    I was aware that there was a tangled situation with the Welsh Greens, but not the specifics. Does sound a bit of a mess.
  • KevinBKevinB Posts: 109
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Here is the list (only first degrees count)

    Berry - Sheffield
    Zahawi - UCL
    Braverman - Cambridge
    Javid - Exeter
    Badenoch - Sussex
    Truss - Oxford
    Hunt - Oxford
    Tugendhat - Bristol
    Baker - Southampton
    Sunak - Oxford
    Mordaunt - Reading
    Wallace - (RMA Sandhurst)

    You beat me to it.

    Same list with second degrees included.

    Wallace - Sandhurst
    Mordaunt - Reading
    Sunak - Oxford/Stanford
    Baker - Southampton/Oxford
    Tugendhat - Bristol/Cambridge
    Hunt - Oxford
    Truss - Oxford
    Badenach - Sussex/Birkbeck
    Javid - Exeter
    Braverman - Cambridge/Sorbonne
    Zahawi - UCL
    Berry - Sheffield
    If you count those then you can have a 6 a side Eton wall game, Oxbridge v Rest of the World. I'll back the side with Mordaunt in it.

    conservatives only ever pick oxford graduates as leader so it will be sunak, hunt or truss
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Joe Biden making another gaffe, is as startling, as him getting another convertible.

    OR Boris Johnson getting a hummer.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao

    https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ

    Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
    Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of Here

    Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches

    Shape Up, Merika
    It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.
    South Carolina say "hi y'all!"
    Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.

    Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.

    And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.

    Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
    And we’ve have ended up with the f…up he’s currently making of transport, being reflected across the wider economy?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1545460754857578498?t=pG5MK2do3yAzsn7Oqax8zA&s=19
    As I said Wallace already a clear third, Sunak beats Truss head to head by less than 5% and no Sunak v Wallace figures given
    Just 12%

    Oliver Dowden just announced support for Rishi
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    KevinB said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Here is the list (only first degrees count)

    Berry - Sheffield
    Zahawi - UCL
    Braverman - Cambridge
    Javid - Exeter
    Badenoch - Sussex
    Truss - Oxford
    Hunt - Oxford
    Tugendhat - Bristol
    Baker - Southampton
    Sunak - Oxford
    Mordaunt - Reading
    Wallace - (RMA Sandhurst)

    You beat me to it.

    Same list with second degrees included.

    Wallace - Sandhurst
    Mordaunt - Reading
    Sunak - Oxford/Stanford
    Baker - Southampton/Oxford
    Tugendhat - Bristol/Cambridge
    Hunt - Oxford
    Truss - Oxford
    Badenach - Sussex/Birkbeck
    Javid - Exeter
    Braverman - Cambridge/Sorbonne
    Zahawi - UCL
    Berry - Sheffield
    If you count those then you can have a 6 a side Eton wall game, Oxbridge v Rest of the World. I'll back the side with Mordaunt in it.

    conservatives only ever pick oxford graduates as leader so it will be sunak, hunt or truss
    Major, IDS, Churchill, Howard, Chamberlain, Baldwin and Disraeli say hello
  • KevinBKevinB Posts: 109

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    I celebrate the diversity of having open homophobes on the site.
    Which means I'm a metropolitan liberal who doesn't understand the Red Wall.
    Or summat.
    Still. It'll be different in the 2030's old fella me lad.

    Who's a homophobe?

    Another classic sign of being Woke: saying that anyone who objects to Woke is a bigot.
    Er, no. Someone was celebrating the idea of propaganda (their word) use for a 'populist' government to repeal gay marriage, because it was accepted a majority do not and would not back it (and thus is not populist at all).

    Woke has nothing to do with it. I'm opposed to a lot of silly stuff that bears the woke label, but this had nothing to do with it. Unless knowing gay people is a 'metropolitan bubble' thing is thought to be a sensible point.
    My point was that when you say 'Woke is a problem ' the usual response of the Woke is to say 'what's Woke?' and then when you give examples of its dogmatic, obsessive and divisive nature to say 'so you think racism/ sexism/ homophobia is ok then?'.

    This is a classic sign of being Woke. It's totally impervious to criticism or reason.

    My I ask (gently) do you think that there are zero homophobic people posting on PB?

    Or are you objecting to someone being charged with homophobia on here due to something they post?

    Seems to me, from my perspective, that you are very close to saying, that anyone alleging that someone or something is anti-gay, is ipso facto woke. Is that incorrect re: your views?
    there are no homophobes posting on PB
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    Who gets your vote?
    Wallace
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao

    https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ

    Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
    I am heading to 80 but really how can he be so stupid
    He’s not stupid, he’s just getting old and starting to show that to a worldwide audience. It’s sad to watch.
    I agree and can sympathise but he is the POTUS
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    Who gets your vote?
    Boris
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    Oh God, don't tell me he thought Abe was holding kids underground in a pizza place...

    "The alleged gunman, named as Tetsuya Yamagami, 41, believed Abe was part of the group and shot him for that reason, they said, without naming the group."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62098100
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    edited July 2022
    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    If it has to be a Leaver for the Tory membership then I think Sunak seems a bit more pragmatic and less likely to be divisive and in constant conflict with the EU .

    So as a Remainer I find him the most palatable of the Leavers so far who are expected to put their names forward .

    With my 4 hats -

    Betting: I want Mordaunt
    Labour: I want Truss
    Country: I want Hunt
    Heart: I want the Saj
    I wouldn't agree the 4th, but agree the first 3.

    Sunak would be OK. He isn't a total prick.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Sandpit said:

    Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao

    https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ

    Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
    Even more powerful than SCOTUS??
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao

    https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ

    Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
    Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of Here

    Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches

    Shape Up, Merika
    It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.
    South Carolina say "hi y'all!"
    Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.

    Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.

    And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.

    Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
    Flaw in your theory is "ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire".

    Seeing as how that the record shows that, next to getting a bad batch of maple syrup, about the LAST thing that the flinty voters of New Hampshire want to do, is simply ratify whatever fool choice the corn-fed hicks of Iowa have made.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    Who gets your vote?
    Boris
    With all the talk about Boris in the last ten years, I think it's Natasha's time to shine. And failing her, the Moose or Squirrel.

    (This reference is not for da yoof...)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.

    "Sean Thomas
    How Boris Johnson changed my life
    8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life

    That’s a truly poignant story. I feel like crying. I need a tissue
    Crying isn’t the reason you need the tissue.
    It’s very brave of him to come clean on his true relationship with Boris
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026

    Woke racism from Jo Maugham:

    image

    He's afraid they will, because that shits on his worldview and will confuse him.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    Who gets your vote?
    Wallace
    Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand

    We should know this next few days
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    Who gets your vote?
    Wallace
    What if he doesn't run?

    I don't get the vibe from him that he wants it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.

    "Sean Thomas
    How Boris Johnson changed my life
    8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life

    That’s a truly poignant story. I feel like crying. I need a tissue
    Crying isn’t the reason you need the tissue.
    I always wondered why Boris's hair was so messy. It turned out he was using Leon's Patent Hair Gel (tm).
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    KevinB said:

    Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long

    I don't see why this is related to how long the lockdown lasted but I agree 80% was too generous. 60% was more appropriate provided there were top ups for people on low income.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao

    https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ

    Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
    Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of Here

    Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches

    Shape Up, Merika
    It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.
    South Carolina say "hi y'all!"
    Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.

    Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.

    And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.

    Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
    Would Buttigieg have won the general against Trump?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao

    https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ

    Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
    Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of Here

    Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches

    Shape Up, Merika
    It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.
    South Carolina say "hi y'all!"
    Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.

    Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.

    And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.

    Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
    Flaw in your theory is "ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire".

    Seeing as how that the record shows that, next to getting a bad batch of maple syrup, about the LAST thing that the flinty voters of New Hampshire want to do, is simply ratify whatever fool choice the corn-fed hicks of Iowa have made.
    Except that Buttigieg was within a few percent of winning New Hampshire: he went down 26 to 24. If he'd had the momentum of clearly winning Iowa, then I think he would have comfortably beaten Sanders there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    I am opposed to Sunak becoming PM because I am angry the BCE keep naming his constituency Richmond (Yorks) and don't want to see it all the time.

    I don't think there is any other constituency in that style.

    Yes, the two Richmond seats should be delineated as:

    Richmond Up North
    Richmond Down South

    It'd solve all confusion.
    Richmond (Yorks) should be Richmondshire.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Anyway, having watched his money no object campaign video I am once again declaring that I am Ready For Rishi.

    If the Tories are serious about winning the next election, you need Rishi Sunak. A northern MP who has shown that he can parachute cash where its needed and puts levelling up front and centre. But he's also clear that we can't mortgage our kids' futures by spending daft.

    Don't tell @HYUFD
    Rishi talks human. Yes OK so he is a gazillionaire who doesn't know how contactless payments work. But half the candidates are gormless about something, and more than half downright nasty.

    Sunak is the bridge between classic Toryism and the new north. He will show how he was whipped along to make mad pledges by the now ousted liar who was obsessed with boosterism. Thus pleasing the fiscal conservatives.

    But he is relatively young, photogenic, affable and serious. Which is what we need. Way better than so many of the likely candidates already.
    Rishi can afford to buy his own wallpaper. Ironically, he won't have to because the previous tenants had the place done up.
    I have a feeling Mr and Mrs Rishi might have a slightly more refined taste than the previous occupants
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026

    Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.

    He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.

    However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.

    (And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)

    I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.

    It was working against gay people and now it works for them.

    That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.

    "Sean Thomas
    How Boris Johnson changed my life
    8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life

    That’s a truly poignant story. I feel like crying. I need a tissue
    Crying isn’t the reason you need the tissue.
    It’s very brave of him to come clean on his true relationship with Boris
    Like how Carrie keeps putting on such a brave face?

    Edit - OK am now swearing off such jokes for an unspecified period . . .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    Who gets your vote?
    Wallace
    Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand

    We should know this next few days
    It's his one chance, and he's got an open road.

    If he passes it up now he'll never get it.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    I am opposed to Sunak becoming PM because I am angry the BCE keep naming his constituency Richmond (Yorks) and don't want to see it all the time.

    I don't think there is any other constituency in that style.

    Yes, the two Richmond seats should be delineated as:

    Richmond Up North
    Richmond Down South

    It'd solve all confusion.
    Richmond (Yorks) should be Richmondshire.
    Crusty!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    Who gets your vote?
    Wallace
    Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand

    We should know this next few days
    It's his one chance, and he's got an open road.

    If he passes it up now he'll never get it.
    He may not want it but we will know soon enough
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520

    Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.

    He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.

    However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.

    (And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)

    I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.

    It was working against gay people and now it works for them.

    That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
    I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.

    That's great IMO, as it is equality.

    But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Jobbing hack gives thanks to Boris Johnson.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life

    Mr Thomas does have a way with words.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1545460754857578498?t=pG5MK2do3yAzsn7Oqax8zA&s=19
    The head to head looks like Rishi v Truss, unless the Stop Rishi campaign doesn’t fail.

    It’s beginning but to take shape now?

    20 sigs needed should wipe out the “only entered cause of a bet with my mates to do it” candidates.

    It would soon be the super six, any one of which could be the next Prime minister.

    Would it favour lesser known candidates to come through, if it was just for LOTO, but as it’s for PM likely last 2 from great offices of state?

    Would it help us bettors to build a Reasons for/reasons against chart, like they have in Horse Racing?

    Of the top 3 early on, it looks like Rishi is top weighted with the “disloyal” tag? Mourdant may struggle to get over the Subcommittee for Woke Activities hazard. And Wallace could fail the ‘wardrobe of “full tonto”tweets and voting’ test.

    Which means it may not be any of those three big favourites? Which means betting value can yet be out there?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Roger said:

    Anyway, having watched his money no object campaign video I am once again declaring that I am Ready For Rishi.

    If the Tories are serious about winning the next election, you need Rishi Sunak. A northern MP who has shown that he can parachute cash where its needed and puts levelling up front and centre. But he's also clear that we can't mortgage our kids' futures by spending daft.

    Don't tell @HYUFD
    Rishi talks human. Yes OK so he is a gazillionaire who doesn't know how contactless payments work. But half the candidates are gormless about something, and more than half downright nasty.

    Sunak is the bridge between classic Toryism and the new north. He will show how he was whipped along to make mad pledges by the now ousted liar who was obsessed with boosterism. Thus pleasing the fiscal conservatives.

    But he is relatively young, photogenic, affable and serious. Which is what we need. Way better than so many of the likely candidates already.
    Rishi can afford to buy his own wallpaper. Ironically, he won't have to because the previous tenants had the place done up.
    I have a feeling Mr and Mrs Rishi might have a slightly more refined taste than the previous occupants
    The wallpaper wasn't that big of share of the bill. Presumably Carrie will keep most of the stuff for the next house.

    Though when she gets Lulu in to titivate the new pad, Johnson may pop his clogs with apoplexy. Indeed, that might be part of a cunning plan...
  • KevinBKevinB Posts: 109
    rcs1000 said:

    Why did you remove Gordon Brown? He didn't go to Oxford.

    It's not PMs, it's election winners. So Callaghan isn't there either.
    think oxford graduates are helped as they have more friends in the media....this helps to swing elections their way
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.

    Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544984543555371010?s=20&t=Hkrayn5myVcMmAbISYCotw
    You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    dr_spyn said:

    Jobbing hack gives thanks to Boris Johnson.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life

    Mr Thomas does have a way with words.

    And with his wrist.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao

    https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ

    Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
    Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of Here

    Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches

    Shape Up, Merika
    It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.
    South Carolina say "hi y'all!"
    Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.

    Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.

    And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.

    Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
    Flaw in your theory is "ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire".

    Seeing as how that the record shows that, next to getting a bad batch of maple syrup, about the LAST thing that the flinty voters of New Hampshire want to do, is simply ratify whatever fool choice the corn-fed hicks of Iowa have made.
    Except that Buttigieg was within a few percent of winning New Hampshire: he went down 26 to 24. If he'd had the momentum of clearly winning Iowa, then I think he would have comfortably beaten Sanders there.
    South Carolina still says "hi y'all!" As well as "cheese grits" and "hush puppies" IF you're lucky.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Channel 4 / Opinium survey of Tory members finds:

    (a) a majority wanted Johnson to stay as leader
    (b) Rishi Sunak has a slight lead with 25%, over Liz Truss.

    If I was a Tory member (which thank the Lord I'm not sir) I would definitely vote for Rishi. In fact he's the only one on that list that I would consider voting for. I have never heard him utter the words 'He got all the big calls right' which at least makes him eligible
  • KevinBKevinB Posts: 109

    Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.

    He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.

    However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.

    (And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)

    I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.

    It was working against gay people and now it works for them.

    That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
    I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.

    That's great IMO, as it is equality.

    But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
    especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Omnium said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    I am opposed to Sunak becoming PM because I am angry the BCE keep naming his constituency Richmond (Yorks) and don't want to see it all the time.

    I don't think there is any other constituency in that style.

    Yes, the two Richmond seats should be delineated as:

    Richmond Up North
    Richmond Down South

    It'd solve all confusion.
    Richmond (Yorks) should be Richmondshire.
    Crusty!
    Once purloined a William Hague yardsign in that constituency. They were littering the landscape!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    KevinB said:

    Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.

    He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.

    However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.

    (And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)

    I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.

    It was working against gay people and now it works for them.

    That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
    I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.

    That's great IMO, as it is equality.

    But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
    especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
    I find it odd that you have that many conversations about gay people amongst the crowd in your gym. Is it attached to the Blue Oyster?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534
    I’m glad they’re going to make the nominations needed a minimum of 20 so this should speed things along .

    As for traitor candidate Zahawi gets the gold medal .

  • KevinBKevinB Posts: 109
    Omnium said:

    KevinB said:

    Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long

    Why do you say that?
    pay people a lot to do nothing they will support more lockdowns and pretend to be scared of a virus...simple
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.

    Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544984543555371010?s=20&t=Hkrayn5myVcMmAbISYCotw
    You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.
    We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader again
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    It’s beginning to take shape now. The head to head looks like Rishi v Truss, if the Stop Rishi Campaign fails.

    20 sigs needed should wipe out the “only entered cause of a bet with my mates to do it” candidates.

    It would soon be the super six, any one of which could be the next Prime minister.

    Would it favour lesser known candidates like Tugendhat to come through, if it was just for LOTO, but as it’s for PM, likely last 2 is from great offices of state?

    Would it help us bettors to build a Reasons for/reasons against chart, like they have in Horse Racing?

    Of the top 3 early on, it looks like Rishi is top weighted with the “disloyal” tag? Mourdant may struggle to get over the Subcommittee for Woke Activities hazard. And Wallace could fail the ‘wardrobe of “full tonto”tweets and voting’ test.

    Which means it may not be any of those three big favourites? Which means betting value can yet be out there?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao

    https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ

    Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
    Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of Here

    Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches

    Shape Up, Merika
    It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.
    South Carolina say "hi y'all!"
    Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.

    Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.

    And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.

    Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
    And we’ve have ended up with the f…up he’s currently making of transport, being reflected across the wider economy?
    At least he'd have been able to read a teleprompter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    Who gets your vote?
    Wallace
    Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand

    We should know this next few days
    You hope he won't run, the NATO job is over a year away.

    While Sunak has set off on his private jet after his slick launch, Wallace is checking the engine and getting the supplies ready
  • KevinBKevinB Posts: 109

    KevinB said:

    Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.

    He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.

    However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.

    (And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)

    I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.

    It was working against gay people and now it works for them.

    That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
    I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.

    That's great IMO, as it is equality.

    But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
    especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
    I find it odd that you have that many conversations about gay people amongst the crowd in your gym. Is it attached to the Blue Oyster?
    no many identify the gays in the gym and subtly avoid them...maybe they move away if they are in the changing rooms next to them..that sort of thing...accompanied sometimes with a bit of innuendo
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,056

    Joe Biden making another gaffe, is as startling, as him getting another convertible.

    OR Boris Johnson getting a hummer.

    Wasn't Biden famously gaffe-prone even as a younger politician?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,026
    nico679 said:

    I’m glad they’re going to make the nominations needed a minimum of 20 so this should speed things along .

    As for traitor candidate Zahawi gets the gold medal .

    I think Zahawi shat the bed by taking CoE the night before.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    Who gets your vote?
    Wallace
    Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand

    We should know this next few days
    It's his one chance, and he's got an open road.

    If he passes it up now he'll never get it.
    Equally there is zero chance other than 2023 of getting the NATO job and he may well just want that..
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Joe Biden accidentally reads the part on the teleprompter that says "repeat the line" when they wanted him to say the line again lmfao

    https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1545441526133788673?s=20&t=lJ_hlqafj7ODRvRDRX7GeQ

    Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
    Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of Here

    Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches

    Shape Up, Merika
    It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.
    South Carolina say "hi y'all!"
    Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.

    Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.

    And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.

    Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
    Flaw in your theory is "ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire".

    Seeing as how that the record shows that, next to getting a bad batch of maple syrup, about the LAST thing that the flinty voters of New Hampshire want to do, is simply ratify whatever fool choice the corn-fed hicks of Iowa have made.
    Except that Buttigieg was within a few percent of winning New Hampshire: he went down 26 to 24. If he'd had the momentum of clearly winning Iowa, then I think he would have comfortably beaten Sanders there.
    South Carolina still says "hi y'all!" As well as "cheese grits" and "hush puppies" IF you're lucky.
    Buttigieg pulled out on the eve of Super Tuesday to ensure that a moderate candidate - Biden - would beat Sanders.

    There would have been no need to do that if Bloomberg had not been in the race.

    I'm also not convinced that a Biden who had failed to make the top two in Iowa, New Hampshire or Nevada would have pulled out 49% in SC.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,534
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    Who gets your vote?
    Wallace
    Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand

    We should know this next few days
    You hope he won't run, the NATO job is over a year away.

    While Sunak has set off on his private jet after his slick launch, Wallace is checking the engine and getting the supplies ready
    How will Wallace overcome the Remainer tag . I thought the membership would only vote for a Leaver . Don’t get me wrong I like Wallace and he’s done a good job in defence.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    I don't suppose there's much to choose between them in terms of Tory politics, but I instinctively prefer Javid to Sunak (let alone Zahawi) when it comes to the ex-Chancellors in the contest. Maybe it's simply because Javid was the only one willing to tell Cummings where he could stuff it.

    Really not seeing why everyone else is positive about Sunak (except for those with 250-1 betting slips, obviously).
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    Presumably the weekend papers are full of leadership pitches. Big Truss interview in a friendly paper?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.

    "Sean Thomas
    How Boris Johnson changed my life
    8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life

    So he wanked himself so hard he ended up in hospital. We've all done that... :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    KevinB said:

    Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.

    He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.

    However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.

    (And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)

    I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.

    It was working against gay people and now it works for them.

    That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
    I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.

    That's great IMO, as it is equality.

    But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
    especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
    Why do you think these people now lie to internet pollsters about their views on homosexuality?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    Woke racism from Jo Maugham:

    image

    He's afraid they will, because that shits on his worldview and will confuse him.
    Yes, you can smell the fear there.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.

    "Sean Thomas
    How Boris Johnson changed my life
    8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life

    So he wanked himself so hard he ended up in hospital. We've all done that... :D
    I have NEVER wanked Sean Thomas.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.

    Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544984543555371010?s=20&t=Hkrayn5myVcMmAbISYCotw
    You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.
    We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader again
    I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    KevinB said:

    Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long

    Irresponsible, lazy and discriminatory. Most workers got 80%, while recent graduates and many of the self-employed got nothing, apparently because it "got too hard". It reminded me of Cameron resigning because he didn't want to do the hard stuff.
  • KevinBKevinB Posts: 109
    rcs1000 said:

    KevinB said:

    Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.

    He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.

    However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.

    (And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)

    I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.

    It was working against gay people and now it works for them.

    That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
    I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.

    That's great IMO, as it is equality.

    But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
    especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
    Why do you think these people now lie to internet pollsters about their views on homosexuality?
    they say what they are expected to say and what is the socially fashionable thing to say thats all...as Boris Johnson said yesterday the herd instinct and urge to conform is powerful in humans...why we are so susceptible to propoganda....Hitler knew this
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.

    "Sean Thomas
    How Boris Johnson changed my life
    8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life

    So he wanked himself so hard he ended up in hospital. We've all done that... :D
    I have NEVER wanked Sean Thomas.
    Yet.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.

    Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544984543555371010?s=20&t=Hkrayn5myVcMmAbISYCotw
    You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.
    We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader again
    I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.
    If defeat is inevitable best to make the most of the next two and a bit years with a proper Tory is a plausible strategy.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.

    "Sean Thomas
    How Boris Johnson changed my life
    8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life

    So he wanked himself so hard he ended up in hospital. We've all done that... :D
    As a single man I just called it Friday.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,268
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.

    "Sean Thomas
    How Boris Johnson changed my life
    8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life

    So he wanked himself so hard he ended up in hospital. We've all done that... :D
    I have NEVER wanked Sean Thomas.
    I actually HAVE wanked Sean Thomas. And more than once. It will probably be my one claim to fame, chiselled on my grave
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    KevinB said:

    KevinB said:

    Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.

    He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.

    However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.

    (And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)

    I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.

    It was working against gay people and now it works for them.

    That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
    I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.

    That's great IMO, as it is equality.

    But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
    especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
    I find it odd that you have that many conversations about gay people amongst the crowd in your gym. Is it attached to the Blue Oyster?
    no many identify the gays in the gym and subtly avoid them...maybe they move away if they are in the changing rooms next to them..that sort of thing...accompanied sometimes with a bit of innuendo
    How do you (and they) know they are the 'gays' ? Are they wearing outrageous moustaches and have handkerchiefs hanging out of their pockets? Or do they go around the gym shouting: "I'M SO GAY AND YOU HAD BETTER AVOID ME IN THE SHOWERS BECAUSE YOU ARE SO UTTERLY IRRESISTABLE?"

    And where do the bisexuals come into this? Do they have to avoid them in the showers as well? Oh, why won't anyone think of the bisexuals... ;)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.

    "Sean Thomas
    How Boris Johnson changed my life
    8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life

    So he wanked himself so hard he ended up in hospital. We've all done that... :D
    I have NEVER wanked Sean Thomas.
    I actually HAVE wanked Sean Thomas. And more than once. It will probably be my one claim to fame, chiselled on my grave
    We won't tell hun. It's just our little secret x
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited July 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.

    Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544984543555371010?s=20&t=Hkrayn5myVcMmAbISYCotw
    You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.
    We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader again
    I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.
    Actually you will find plenty of red wall voters are socially conservative, Brexiteers who want tighter immigration controls and strong local communities and traditional values. Not metropolitan liberals and globalists like you and Sunak and they are the key swing voters
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    Who gets your vote?
    Wallace
    Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand

    We should know this next few days
    You hope he won't run, the NATO job is over a year away.

    While Sunak has set off on his private jet after his slick launch, Wallace is checking the engine and getting the supplies ready
    How will Wallace overcome the Remainer tag . I thought the membership would only vote for a Leaver . Don’t get me wrong I like Wallace and he’s done a good job in defence.
    So, Wallace is a Remainer who really wants a different job?

    Why does anyone think he will stand for PM?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Foxy said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Jobbing hack gives thanks to Boris Johnson.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life

    Mr Thomas does have a way with words.

    And with his wrist.
    In your professional experience, just how common are injuries from this & similar causes?
  • KevinBKevinB Posts: 109

    KevinB said:

    KevinB said:

    Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.

    He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.

    However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.

    (And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)

    I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.

    It was working against gay people and now it works for them.

    That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
    I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.

    That's great IMO, as it is equality.

    But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
    especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
    I find it odd that you have that many conversations about gay people amongst the crowd in your gym. Is it attached to the Blue Oyster?
    no many identify the gays in the gym and subtly avoid them...maybe they move away if they are in the changing rooms next to them..that sort of thing...accompanied sometimes with a bit of innuendo
    How do you (and they) know they are the 'gays' ? Are they wearing outrageous moustaches and have handkerchiefs hanging out of their pockets? Or do they go around the gym shouting: "I'M SO GAY AND YOU HAD BETTER AVOID ME IN THE SHOWERS BECAUSE YOU ARE SO UTTERLY IRRESISTABLE?"

    And where do the bisexuals come into this? Do they have to avoid them in the showers as well? Oh, why won't anyone think of the bisexuals... ;)
    we have a bit of a rumour mill in our gym...who does what in their erm nightime activities...its pretty reliable....and of course there are the pretty obvious ones too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
    He very well may and confound your panic
    I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
    Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
    That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.

    On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
    Who gets your vote?
    Wallace
    Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand

    We should know this next few days
    You hope he won't run, the NATO job is over a year away.

    While Sunak has set off on his private jet after his slick launch, Wallace is checking the engine and getting the supplies ready
    How will Wallace overcome the Remainer tag . I thought the membership would only vote for a Leaver . Don’t get me wrong I like Wallace and he’s done a good job in defence.
    As he backed Brexit fully after the referendum and was loyal to Boris to the end
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,841
    edited July 2022
    Thing with Tory Party members, aside from one or rwo oddballs who shit the bed and quit in outrage over whomever gets the gig its irrelevant if they wanted Boris to stay, they are all voting Tory regardless. The poison was 'out here', thats where they are aiming to regain votes with a new leader. Notable that Redfields 'red wall' polling has shown the same drop in support generally as nationally. Of recent times there has been no mysterious holding up of the vote amongst Red Wallers so no reason to suspect the tories will suddenly drop support there.
    The particular issue is in wealthy, leafy southern and SW seats.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited July 2022
    RISHI now has 14 supporters, including Mark Harper, Liam Fox, Bob Neil, and Oliver Dowden.

    TRUSS has 6, including Dehenna Davison and Therese Coffey.

    TUGEDHAT has 5, including Damian Green and Aaron Bell.

    BRAVERMAN has 4, including Desmond Swayne. So does MORDAUNT, including Andrea Leadsom and Michael Fabricant.

    HUNT has 3, including Andrew Mitchell.

    WALLACE and ZAHAWI have 2 apiece.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    KevinB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    KevinB said:

    Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.

    He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.

    However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.

    (And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)

    I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.

    It was working against gay people and now it works for them.

    That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
    I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.

    That's great IMO, as it is equality.

    But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
    especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
    Why do you think these people now lie to internet pollsters about their views on homosexuality?
    they say what they are expected to say and what is the socially fashionable thing to say thats all...as Boris Johnson said yesterday the herd instinct and urge to conform is powerful in humans...why we are so susceptible to propoganda....Hitler knew this
    That's a very common phenomenon: people say different things to phone and online pollsters. It's why the online pollsters got Brexit right, and the phone pollsters did not.

    There's only one teeny weeny problem with your view: the on-line pollsters give basically the same answers regarding homosexuality as do phone pollsters.

    So: people don't lie to on-line pollsters about the death penalty or Brexit or trans-rights (all of which are examples of people feeling they have to give the "right" answer)... But they do about homosexuality.

    That's your contention, right?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,101
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    FPT

    Stumbled across this article on the Spectator front page.

    "Sean Thomas
    How Boris Johnson changed my life
    8 July 2022, 2:57pm" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life

    As I've said, the passing of Boris is a paradigm for the passing of this Sean writer. It explains the anger and bewilderment about wokeness.

    The important lesson in life is to reinvent oneself and move on. I'm not sure Boris is capable of it because he totally lacks self-awareness but I expect Sean will be able to do so given time and reflection.

    On a more serious point, Boris was something of a cult figure to a certain type, and age, of red wall voter. I'm not convinced any of the current contenders will be able to reach those parts that only he, from the tory party, could reach. So candidates may well be able to win back some of the traditional voters and the disgruntled, disaffected and downright angry voters of middle and southern Britain. But the red wall? I'm not so sure.

    And that's why I'm fairly confident about Labour forming the next Government, either on their own or in coalition. The long 14 year reign of the Conservative Party will be at an end.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,520
    KevinB said:

    KevinB said:

    KevinB said:

    Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.

    He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.

    However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.

    (And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)

    I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.

    It was working against gay people and now it works for them.

    That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
    I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.

    That's great IMO, as it is equality.

    But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
    especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
    I find it odd that you have that many conversations about gay people amongst the crowd in your gym. Is it attached to the Blue Oyster?
    no many identify the gays in the gym and subtly avoid them...maybe they move away if they are in the changing rooms next to them..that sort of thing...accompanied sometimes with a bit of innuendo
    How do you (and they) know they are the 'gays' ? Are they wearing outrageous moustaches and have handkerchiefs hanging out of their pockets? Or do they go around the gym shouting: "I'M SO GAY AND YOU HAD BETTER AVOID ME IN THE SHOWERS BECAUSE YOU ARE SO UTTERLY IRRESISTABLE?"

    And where do the bisexuals come into this? Do they have to avoid them in the showers as well? Oh, why won't anyone think of the bisexuals... ;)
    we have a bit of a rumour mill in our gym...who does what in their erm nightime activities...its pretty reliable....and of course there are the pretty obvious ones too
    How do you know it's reliable? Do you test them in the showers with the soap?

    (Speaking as someone who has been accused of being gay several times in the past, sometimes for rather spurious reasons.)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.

    He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.

    Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544984543555371010?s=20&t=Hkrayn5myVcMmAbISYCotw
    You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.
    We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader again
    As has been said if you want the conservatives to win the next GE then Rishi is the one who could do it

    Watch his video and realise he is the very antithesis of the Little Englander attitude of some in the party
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Leon said:

    The strange brief storm passes. Leaving a spectacular sunset


    Incredible. Where exactly? Want to make it my new screensaver!
This discussion has been closed.