It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
I am heading to 80 but really how can he be so stupid
He’s not stupid, he’s just getting old and starting to show that to a worldwide audience. It’s sad to watch.
Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
The SDP-Green coalition has won a vote in the Bundestag backing more coal burning so that the three remaining nuclear plants can be switched off as planned this year. Climate targets may have to be abandoned as a result.
That's odd I could have sworn there were people saying the German Greens are different, they aren't mad like the ones we have.
TBF the Scottish Greens are somewhat more mainstream than the rUKGs.
There aren't rUKGs. There are NI Greens and E&W Greens.
Bizarrely, the Welsh portion of the EnglandandWales Greens now believe in independence for Wales, but voted against organising as a separate Welsh Party.
The EnglandandWales Green party is the most Cymrophobic party in Wales at the moment.
I was aware that there was a tangled situation with the Welsh Greens, but not the specifics. Does sound a bit of a mess.
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of Here
Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches
Shape Up, Merika
It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.
South Carolina say "hi y'all!"
Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.
Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.
And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.
Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
And we’ve have ended up with the f…up he’s currently making of transport, being reflected across the wider economy?
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
I celebrate the diversity of having open homophobes on the site. Which means I'm a metropolitan liberal who doesn't understand the Red Wall. Or summat. Still. It'll be different in the 2030's old fella me lad.
Who's a homophobe?
Another classic sign of being Woke: saying that anyone who objects to Woke is a bigot.
Er, no. Someone was celebrating the idea of propaganda (their word) use for a 'populist' government to repeal gay marriage, because it was accepted a majority do not and would not back it (and thus is not populist at all).
Woke has nothing to do with it. I'm opposed to a lot of silly stuff that bears the woke label, but this had nothing to do with it. Unless knowing gay people is a 'metropolitan bubble' thing is thought to be a sensible point.
My point was that when you say 'Woke is a problem ' the usual response of the Woke is to say 'what's Woke?' and then when you give examples of its dogmatic, obsessive and divisive nature to say 'so you think racism/ sexism/ homophobia is ok then?'.
This is a classic sign of being Woke. It's totally impervious to criticism or reason.
My I ask (gently) do you think that there are zero homophobic people posting on PB?
Or are you objecting to someone being charged with homophobia on here due to something they post?
Seems to me, from my perspective, that you are very close to saying, that anyone alleging that someone or something is anti-gay, is ipso facto woke. Is that incorrect re: your views?
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
I am heading to 80 but really how can he be so stupid
He’s not stupid, he’s just getting old and starting to show that to a worldwide audience. It’s sad to watch.
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
Oh God, don't tell me he thought Abe was holding kids underground in a pizza place...
"The alleged gunman, named as Tetsuya Yamagami, 41, believed Abe was part of the group and shot him for that reason, they said, without naming the group."
If it has to be a Leaver for the Tory membership then I think Sunak seems a bit more pragmatic and less likely to be divisive and in constant conflict with the EU .
So as a Remainer I find him the most palatable of the Leavers so far who are expected to put their names forward .
With my 4 hats -
Betting: I want Mordaunt Labour: I want Truss Country: I want Hunt Heart: I want the Saj
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of Here
Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches
Shape Up, Merika
It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.
South Carolina say "hi y'all!"
Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.
Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.
And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.
Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
Flaw in your theory is "ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire".
Seeing as how that the record shows that, next to getting a bad batch of maple syrup, about the LAST thing that the flinty voters of New Hampshire want to do, is simply ratify whatever fool choice the corn-fed hicks of Iowa have made.
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
Who gets your vote?
Boris
With all the talk about Boris in the last ten years, I think it's Natasha's time to shine. And failing her, the Moose or Squirrel.
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
Who gets your vote?
Wallace
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long
I don't see why this is related to how long the lockdown lasted but I agree 80% was too generous. 60% was more appropriate provided there were top ups for people on low income.
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of Here
Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches
Shape Up, Merika
It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.
South Carolina say "hi y'all!"
Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.
Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.
And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.
Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
Would Buttigieg have won the general against Trump?
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of Here
Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches
Shape Up, Merika
It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.
South Carolina say "hi y'all!"
Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.
Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.
And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.
Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
Flaw in your theory is "ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire".
Seeing as how that the record shows that, next to getting a bad batch of maple syrup, about the LAST thing that the flinty voters of New Hampshire want to do, is simply ratify whatever fool choice the corn-fed hicks of Iowa have made.
Except that Buttigieg was within a few percent of winning New Hampshire: he went down 26 to 24. If he'd had the momentum of clearly winning Iowa, then I think he would have comfortably beaten Sanders there.
Anyway, having watched his money no object campaign video I am once again declaring that I am Ready For Rishi.
If the Tories are serious about winning the next election, you need Rishi Sunak. A northern MP who has shown that he can parachute cash where its needed and puts levelling up front and centre. But he's also clear that we can't mortgage our kids' futures by spending daft.
Rishi talks human. Yes OK so he is a gazillionaire who doesn't know how contactless payments work. But half the candidates are gormless about something, and more than half downright nasty.
Sunak is the bridge between classic Toryism and the new north. He will show how he was whipped along to make mad pledges by the now ousted liar who was obsessed with boosterism. Thus pleasing the fiscal conservatives.
But he is relatively young, photogenic, affable and serious. Which is what we need. Way better than so many of the likely candidates already.
Rishi can afford to buy his own wallpaper. Ironically, he won't have to because the previous tenants had the place done up.
I have a feeling Mr and Mrs Rishi might have a slightly more refined taste than the previous occupants
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
Who gets your vote?
Wallace
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
Who gets your vote?
Wallace
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
The head to head looks like Rishi v Truss, unless the Stop Rishi campaign doesn’t fail.
It’s beginning but to take shape now?
20 sigs needed should wipe out the “only entered cause of a bet with my mates to do it” candidates.
It would soon be the super six, any one of which could be the next Prime minister.
Would it favour lesser known candidates to come through, if it was just for LOTO, but as it’s for PM likely last 2 from great offices of state?
Would it help us bettors to build a Reasons for/reasons against chart, like they have in Horse Racing?
Of the top 3 early on, it looks like Rishi is top weighted with the “disloyal” tag? Mourdant may struggle to get over the Subcommittee for Woke Activities hazard. And Wallace could fail the ‘wardrobe of “full tonto”tweets and voting’ test.
Which means it may not be any of those three big favourites? Which means betting value can yet be out there?
Anyway, having watched his money no object campaign video I am once again declaring that I am Ready For Rishi.
If the Tories are serious about winning the next election, you need Rishi Sunak. A northern MP who has shown that he can parachute cash where its needed and puts levelling up front and centre. But he's also clear that we can't mortgage our kids' futures by spending daft.
Rishi talks human. Yes OK so he is a gazillionaire who doesn't know how contactless payments work. But half the candidates are gormless about something, and more than half downright nasty.
Sunak is the bridge between classic Toryism and the new north. He will show how he was whipped along to make mad pledges by the now ousted liar who was obsessed with boosterism. Thus pleasing the fiscal conservatives.
But he is relatively young, photogenic, affable and serious. Which is what we need. Way better than so many of the likely candidates already.
Rishi can afford to buy his own wallpaper. Ironically, he won't have to because the previous tenants had the place done up.
I have a feeling Mr and Mrs Rishi might have a slightly more refined taste than the previous occupants
The wallpaper wasn't that big of share of the bill. Presumably Carrie will keep most of the stuff for the next house.
Though when she gets Lulu in to titivate the new pad, Johnson may pop his clogs with apoplexy. Indeed, that might be part of a cunning plan...
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of Here
Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches
Shape Up, Merika
It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.
South Carolina say "hi y'all!"
Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.
Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.
And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.
Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
Flaw in your theory is "ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire".
Seeing as how that the record shows that, next to getting a bad batch of maple syrup, about the LAST thing that the flinty voters of New Hampshire want to do, is simply ratify whatever fool choice the corn-fed hicks of Iowa have made.
Except that Buttigieg was within a few percent of winning New Hampshire: he went down 26 to 24. If he'd had the momentum of clearly winning Iowa, then I think he would have comfortably beaten Sanders there.
South Carolina still says "hi y'all!" As well as "cheese grits" and "hush puppies" IF you're lucky.
(a) a majority wanted Johnson to stay as leader (b) Rishi Sunak has a slight lead with 25%, over Liz Truss.
If I was a Tory member (which thank the Lord I'm not sir) I would definitely vote for Rishi. In fact he's the only one on that list that I would consider voting for. I have never heard him utter the words 'He got all the big calls right' which at least makes him eligible
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
I find it odd that you have that many conversations about gay people amongst the crowd in your gym. Is it attached to the Blue Oyster?
Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long
Why do you say that?
pay people a lot to do nothing they will support more lockdowns and pretend to be scared of a virus...simple
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
It’s beginning to take shape now. The head to head looks like Rishi v Truss, if the Stop Rishi Campaign fails.
20 sigs needed should wipe out the “only entered cause of a bet with my mates to do it” candidates.
It would soon be the super six, any one of which could be the next Prime minister.
Would it favour lesser known candidates like Tugendhat to come through, if it was just for LOTO, but as it’s for PM, likely last 2 is from great offices of state?
Would it help us bettors to build a Reasons for/reasons against chart, like they have in Horse Racing?
Of the top 3 early on, it looks like Rishi is top weighted with the “disloyal” tag? Mourdant may struggle to get over the Subcommittee for Woke Activities hazard. And Wallace could fail the ‘wardrobe of “full tonto”tweets and voting’ test.
Which means it may not be any of those three big favourites? Which means betting value can yet be out there?
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of Here
Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches
Shape Up, Merika
It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.
South Carolina say "hi y'all!"
Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.
Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.
And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.
Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
And we’ve have ended up with the f…up he’s currently making of transport, being reflected across the wider economy?
At least he'd have been able to read a teleprompter.
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
Who gets your vote?
Wallace
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand
We should know this next few days
You hope he won't run, the NATO job is over a year away.
While Sunak has set off on his private jet after his slick launch, Wallace is checking the engine and getting the supplies ready
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
I find it odd that you have that many conversations about gay people amongst the crowd in your gym. Is it attached to the Blue Oyster?
no many identify the gays in the gym and subtly avoid them...maybe they move away if they are in the changing rooms next to them..that sort of thing...accompanied sometimes with a bit of innuendo
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
Who gets your vote?
Wallace
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand
We should know this next few days
It's his one chance, and he's got an open road.
If he passes it up now he'll never get it.
Equally there is zero chance other than 2023 of getting the NATO job and he may well just want that..
Oh dear. For how long will they try and cover for him, before admitting that maybe an 80-year-old man is not the best guy to have in charge? Imagine starting to lose your faculties, whilst also being aware that you’re POTUS and the most powerful man in the world.
Look at the Veep’s face as Biden fluffs his lines again. Suppressed panic: Get Me Out Of Here
Uncannily like some of the faces Trump’s aides would pull during HIS insane speeches
Shape Up, Merika
It's weird to think that if Iowa Democrats had not fucked up royally, it would be President Buttigieg right now.
South Carolina say "hi y'all!"
Actually, it wasn't just Iowa Democrats. It was also Mike Bloomberg.
Buttigieg would have ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire.
And then he would likely have come a solid second in Nevada behind Sanders. And I don't think Biden could have come back from that.
Without Bloomberg in the race, there would therefore have been one moderate candidate - Buttigieg - and he would have cruised to the nomination.
Flaw in your theory is "ridden victory in Iowa to victory in New Hampshire".
Seeing as how that the record shows that, next to getting a bad batch of maple syrup, about the LAST thing that the flinty voters of New Hampshire want to do, is simply ratify whatever fool choice the corn-fed hicks of Iowa have made.
Except that Buttigieg was within a few percent of winning New Hampshire: he went down 26 to 24. If he'd had the momentum of clearly winning Iowa, then I think he would have comfortably beaten Sanders there.
South Carolina still says "hi y'all!" As well as "cheese grits" and "hush puppies" IF you're lucky.
Buttigieg pulled out on the eve of Super Tuesday to ensure that a moderate candidate - Biden - would beat Sanders.
There would have been no need to do that if Bloomberg had not been in the race.
I'm also not convinced that a Biden who had failed to make the top two in Iowa, New Hampshire or Nevada would have pulled out 49% in SC.
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
Who gets your vote?
Wallace
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand
We should know this next few days
You hope he won't run, the NATO job is over a year away.
While Sunak has set off on his private jet after his slick launch, Wallace is checking the engine and getting the supplies ready
How will Wallace overcome the Remainer tag . I thought the membership would only vote for a Leaver . Don’t get me wrong I like Wallace and he’s done a good job in defence.
I don't suppose there's much to choose between them in terms of Tory politics, but I instinctively prefer Javid to Sunak (let alone Zahawi) when it comes to the ex-Chancellors in the contest. Maybe it's simply because Javid was the only one willing to tell Cummings where he could stuff it.
Really not seeing why everyone else is positive about Sunak (except for those with 250-1 betting slips, obviously).
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
Why do you think these people now lie to internet pollsters about their views on homosexuality?
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader again
I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.
Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long
Irresponsible, lazy and discriminatory. Most workers got 80%, while recent graduates and many of the self-employed got nothing, apparently because it "got too hard". It reminded me of Cameron resigning because he didn't want to do the hard stuff.
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
Why do you think these people now lie to internet pollsters about their views on homosexuality?
they say what they are expected to say and what is the socially fashionable thing to say thats all...as Boris Johnson said yesterday the herd instinct and urge to conform is powerful in humans...why we are so susceptible to propoganda....Hitler knew this
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader again
I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.
If defeat is inevitable best to make the most of the next two and a bit years with a proper Tory is a plausible strategy.
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
I find it odd that you have that many conversations about gay people amongst the crowd in your gym. Is it attached to the Blue Oyster?
no many identify the gays in the gym and subtly avoid them...maybe they move away if they are in the changing rooms next to them..that sort of thing...accompanied sometimes with a bit of innuendo
How do you (and they) know they are the 'gays' ? Are they wearing outrageous moustaches and have handkerchiefs hanging out of their pockets? Or do they go around the gym shouting: "I'M SO GAY AND YOU HAD BETTER AVOID ME IN THE SHOWERS BECAUSE YOU ARE SO UTTERLY IRRESISTABLE?"
And where do the bisexuals come into this? Do they have to avoid them in the showers as well? Oh, why won't anyone think of the bisexuals...
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader again
I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.
Actually you will find plenty of red wall voters are socially conservative, Brexiteers who want tighter immigration controls and strong local communities and traditional values. Not metropolitan liberals and globalists like you and Sunak and they are the key swing voters
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
Who gets your vote?
Wallace
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand
We should know this next few days
You hope he won't run, the NATO job is over a year away.
While Sunak has set off on his private jet after his slick launch, Wallace is checking the engine and getting the supplies ready
How will Wallace overcome the Remainer tag . I thought the membership would only vote for a Leaver . Don’t get me wrong I like Wallace and he’s done a good job in defence.
So, Wallace is a Remainer who really wants a different job?
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
I find it odd that you have that many conversations about gay people amongst the crowd in your gym. Is it attached to the Blue Oyster?
no many identify the gays in the gym and subtly avoid them...maybe they move away if they are in the changing rooms next to them..that sort of thing...accompanied sometimes with a bit of innuendo
How do you (and they) know they are the 'gays' ? Are they wearing outrageous moustaches and have handkerchiefs hanging out of their pockets? Or do they go around the gym shouting: "I'M SO GAY AND YOU HAD BETTER AVOID ME IN THE SHOWERS BECAUSE YOU ARE SO UTTERLY IRRESISTABLE?"
And where do the bisexuals come into this? Do they have to avoid them in the showers as well? Oh, why won't anyone think of the bisexuals...
we have a bit of a rumour mill in our gym...who does what in their erm nightime activities...its pretty reliable....and of course there are the pretty obvious ones too
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Not according to C4 News who confirm conservative members back Rishi
That C4 news Tory members poll only had a head to head between Sunak and Truss, in which Sunak scraped a win.
On first preferences Sunak was well under 50% with Wallace already a strong third
Who gets your vote?
Wallace
Hardly a surprise but he has not declared yet and reports are saying he wants The NATO job in 2023 and will not stand
We should know this next few days
You hope he won't run, the NATO job is over a year away.
While Sunak has set off on his private jet after his slick launch, Wallace is checking the engine and getting the supplies ready
How will Wallace overcome the Remainer tag . I thought the membership would only vote for a Leaver . Don’t get me wrong I like Wallace and he’s done a good job in defence.
As he backed Brexit fully after the referendum and was loyal to Boris to the end
Thing with Tory Party members, aside from one or rwo oddballs who shit the bed and quit in outrage over whomever gets the gig its irrelevant if they wanted Boris to stay, they are all voting Tory regardless. The poison was 'out here', thats where they are aiming to regain votes with a new leader. Notable that Redfields 'red wall' polling has shown the same drop in support generally as nationally. Of recent times there has been no mysterious holding up of the vote amongst Red Wallers so no reason to suspect the tories will suddenly drop support there. The particular issue is in wealthy, leafy southern and SW seats.
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
Why do you think these people now lie to internet pollsters about their views on homosexuality?
they say what they are expected to say and what is the socially fashionable thing to say thats all...as Boris Johnson said yesterday the herd instinct and urge to conform is powerful in humans...why we are so susceptible to propoganda....Hitler knew this
That's a very common phenomenon: people say different things to phone and online pollsters. It's why the online pollsters got Brexit right, and the phone pollsters did not.
There's only one teeny weeny problem with your view: the on-line pollsters give basically the same answers regarding homosexuality as do phone pollsters.
So: people don't lie to on-line pollsters about the death penalty or Brexit or trans-rights (all of which are examples of people feeling they have to give the "right" answer)... But they do about homosexuality.
As I've said, the passing of Boris is a paradigm for the passing of this Sean writer. It explains the anger and bewilderment about wokeness.
The important lesson in life is to reinvent oneself and move on. I'm not sure Boris is capable of it because he totally lacks self-awareness but I expect Sean will be able to do so given time and reflection.
On a more serious point, Boris was something of a cult figure to a certain type, and age, of red wall voter. I'm not convinced any of the current contenders will be able to reach those parts that only he, from the tory party, could reach. So candidates may well be able to win back some of the traditional voters and the disgruntled, disaffected and downright angry voters of middle and southern Britain. But the red wall? I'm not so sure.
And that's why I'm fairly confident about Labour forming the next Government, either on their own or in coalition. The long 14 year reign of the Conservative Party will be at an end.
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
I find it odd that you have that many conversations about gay people amongst the crowd in your gym. Is it attached to the Blue Oyster?
no many identify the gays in the gym and subtly avoid them...maybe they move away if they are in the changing rooms next to them..that sort of thing...accompanied sometimes with a bit of innuendo
How do you (and they) know they are the 'gays' ? Are they wearing outrageous moustaches and have handkerchiefs hanging out of their pockets? Or do they go around the gym shouting: "I'M SO GAY AND YOU HAD BETTER AVOID ME IN THE SHOWERS BECAUSE YOU ARE SO UTTERLY IRRESISTABLE?"
And where do the bisexuals come into this? Do they have to avoid them in the showers as well? Oh, why won't anyone think of the bisexuals...
we have a bit of a rumour mill in our gym...who does what in their erm nightime activities...its pretty reliable....and of course there are the pretty obvious ones too
How do you know it's reliable? Do you test them in the showers with the soap?
(Speaking as someone who has been accused of being gay several times in the past, sometimes for rather spurious reasons.)
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
Why do you think these people now lie to internet pollsters about their views on homosexuality?
they say what they are expected to say and what is the socially fashionable thing to say thats all...as Boris Johnson said yesterday the herd instinct and urge to conform is powerful in humans...why we are so susceptible to propoganda....Hitler knew this
That's a very common phenomenon: people say different things to phone and online pollsters. It's why the online pollsters got Brexit right, and the phone pollsters did not.
There's only one teeny weeny problem with your view: the on-line pollsters give basically the same answers regarding homosexuality as do phone pollsters.
So: people don't lie to on-line pollsters about the death penalty or Brexit or trans-rights (all of which are examples of people feeling they have to give the "right" answer)... But they do about homosexuality.
That's your contention, right?
yes but to be considered a homophobe in our society is much worse than to be regarded as anti brexit. So people lie online too
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader again
I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.
Actually you will find plenty of red wall voters are socially conservative, Brexiteers who want tighter immigration controls and strong local communities and traditional values. Not metropolitan liberals and globalists like you and Sunak and they are the key swing voters
Its just that I know red wall voters. Having lived there. And they did not vote for traditional Conservatives. They voted for Brexit and then for the voice of Brexit, and they want the cash they were promised.
Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long
Why do you say that?
pay people a lot to do nothing they will support more lockdowns and pretend to be scared of a virus...simple
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader again
I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.
Actually you will find plenty of red wall voters are socially conservative, Brexiteers who want tighter immigration controls and strong local communities and traditional values. Not metropolitan liberals and globalists like you and Sunak and they are the key swing voters
Its just that I know red wall voters. Having lived there. And they did not vote for traditional Conservatives. They voted for Brexit and then for the voice of Brexit, and they want the cash they were promised.
and they also want socially conservative policies not "woke nonsense"
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long
Why do you say that?
pay people a lot to do nothing they will support more lockdowns and pretend to be scared of a virus...simple
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
Only if he actually goes for it. He hasn’t even announced yet.
Comments
OR Boris Johnson getting a hummer.
Oliver Dowden just announced support for Rishi
"The alleged gunman, named as Tetsuya Yamagami, 41, believed Abe was part of the group and shot him for that reason, they said, without naming the group."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62098100
Sunak would be OK. He isn't a total prick.
Seeing as how that the record shows that, next to getting a bad batch of maple syrup, about the LAST thing that the flinty voters of New Hampshire want to do, is simply ratify whatever fool choice the corn-fed hicks of Iowa have made.
(This reference is not for da yoof...)
We should know this next few days
I don't get the vibe from him that he wants it.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
Edit - OK am now swearing off such jokes for an unspecified period . . .
If he passes it up now he'll never get it.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-boris-johnson-gave-me-a-hand-in-life
Mr Thomas does have a way with words.
It’s beginning but to take shape now?
20 sigs needed should wipe out the “only entered cause of a bet with my mates to do it” candidates.
It would soon be the super six, any one of which could be the next Prime minister.
Would it favour lesser known candidates to come through, if it was just for LOTO, but as it’s for PM likely last 2 from great offices of state?
Would it help us bettors to build a Reasons for/reasons against chart, like they have in Horse Racing?
Of the top 3 early on, it looks like Rishi is top weighted with the “disloyal” tag? Mourdant may struggle to get over the Subcommittee for Woke Activities hazard. And Wallace could fail the ‘wardrobe of “full tonto”tweets and voting’ test.
Which means it may not be any of those three big favourites? Which means betting value can yet be out there?
Though when she gets Lulu in to titivate the new pad, Johnson may pop his clogs with apoplexy. Indeed, that might be part of a cunning plan...
As for traitor candidate Zahawi gets the gold medal .
20 sigs needed should wipe out the “only entered cause of a bet with my mates to do it” candidates.
It would soon be the super six, any one of which could be the next Prime minister.
Would it favour lesser known candidates like Tugendhat to come through, if it was just for LOTO, but as it’s for PM, likely last 2 is from great offices of state?
Would it help us bettors to build a Reasons for/reasons against chart, like they have in Horse Racing?
Of the top 3 early on, it looks like Rishi is top weighted with the “disloyal” tag? Mourdant may struggle to get over the Subcommittee for Woke Activities hazard. And Wallace could fail the ‘wardrobe of “full tonto”tweets and voting’ test.
Which means it may not be any of those three big favourites? Which means betting value can yet be out there?
While Sunak has set off on his private jet after his slick launch, Wallace is checking the engine and getting the supplies ready
There would have been no need to do that if Bloomberg had not been in the race.
I'm also not convinced that a Biden who had failed to make the top two in Iowa, New Hampshire or Nevada would have pulled out 49% in SC.
Really not seeing why everyone else is positive about Sunak (except for those with 250-1 betting slips, obviously).
And where do the bisexuals come into this? Do they have to avoid them in the showers as well? Oh, why won't anyone think of the bisexuals...
Why does anyone think he will stand for PM?
The particular issue is in wealthy, leafy southern and SW seats.
TRUSS has 6, including Dehenna Davison and Therese Coffey.
TUGEDHAT has 5, including Damian Green and Aaron Bell.
BRAVERMAN has 4, including Desmond Swayne. So does MORDAUNT, including Andrea Leadsom and Michael Fabricant.
HUNT has 3, including Andrew Mitchell.
WALLACE and ZAHAWI have 2 apiece.
There's only one teeny weeny problem with your view: the on-line pollsters give basically the same answers regarding homosexuality as do phone pollsters.
So: people don't lie to on-line pollsters about the death penalty or Brexit or trans-rights (all of which are examples of people feeling they have to give the "right" answer)... But they do about homosexuality.
That's your contention, right?
The important lesson in life is to reinvent oneself and move on. I'm not sure Boris is capable of it because he totally lacks self-awareness but I expect Sean will be able to do so given time and reflection.
On a more serious point, Boris was something of a cult figure to a certain type, and age, of red wall voter. I'm not convinced any of the current contenders will be able to reach those parts that only he, from the tory party, could reach. So candidates may well be able to win back some of the traditional voters and the disgruntled, disaffected and downright angry voters of middle and southern Britain. But the red wall? I'm not so sure.
And that's why I'm fairly confident about Labour forming the next Government, either on their own or in coalition. The long 14 year reign of the Conservative Party will be at an end.
(Speaking as someone who has been accused of being gay several times in the past, sometimes for rather spurious reasons.)
Watch his video and realise he is the very antithesis of the Little Englander attitude of some in the party
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
If you DM me your email addy I can send you a high res, given that you are so attached to Montenegro!
He hasn’t even announced yet.