I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
Why do you think these people now lie to internet pollsters about their views on homosexuality?
they say what they are expected to say and what is the socially fashionable thing to say thats all...as Boris Johnson said yesterday the herd instinct and urge to conform is powerful in humans...why we are so susceptible to propoganda....Hitler knew this
That's a very common phenomenon: people say different things to phone and online pollsters. It's why the online pollsters got Brexit right, and the phone pollsters did not.
There's only one teeny weeny problem with your view: the on-line pollsters give basically the same answers regarding homosexuality as do phone pollsters.
So: people don't lie to on-line pollsters about the death penalty or Brexit or trans-rights (all of which are examples of people feeling they have to give the "right" answer)... But they do about homosexuality.
That's your contention, right?
yes but to be considered a homophobe in our society is much worse than to be regarded as anti brexit. So people lie online too
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader again
I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.
Actually you will find plenty of red wall voters are socially conservative, Brexiteers who want tighter immigration controls and strong local communities and traditional values. Not metropolitan liberals and globalists like you and Sunak and they are the key swing voters
Its just that I know red wall voters. Having lived there. And they did not vote for traditional Conservatives. They voted for Brexit and then for the voice of Brexit, and they want the cash they were promised.
Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long
Why do you say that?
pay people a lot to do nothing they will support more lockdowns and pretend to be scared of a virus...simple
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader again
I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.
Actually you will find plenty of red wall voters are socially conservative, Brexiteers who want tighter immigration controls and strong local communities and traditional values. Not metropolitan liberals and globalists like you and Sunak and they are the key swing voters
Its just that I know red wall voters. Having lived there. And they did not vote for traditional Conservatives. They voted for Brexit and then for the voice of Brexit, and they want the cash they were promised.
and they also want socially conservative policies not "woke nonsense"
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
Rishi was totally irresponsible with furlough. It should have been 60% of prior income max. The generosity of furlough was one reason why the lockdowns went on so long
Why do you say that?
pay people a lot to do nothing they will support more lockdowns and pretend to be scared of a virus...simple
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
Only if he actually goes for it. He hasn’t even announced yet.
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
One key issue about changing it: to roll back gay marriage, you have to annul and undo hundreds of thousands of marriages. Including reversing the legal ramifications such as next of kin aspects and inheritances, including inheritances that have already happened.
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
Why do you think these people now lie to internet pollsters about their views on homosexuality?
they say what they are expected to say and what is the socially fashionable thing to say thats all...as Boris Johnson said yesterday the herd instinct and urge to conform is powerful in humans...why we are so susceptible to propoganda....Hitler knew this
That's a very common phenomenon: people say different things to phone and online pollsters. It's why the online pollsters got Brexit right, and the phone pollsters did not.
There's only one teeny weeny problem with your view: the on-line pollsters give basically the same answers regarding homosexuality as do phone pollsters.
So: people don't lie to on-line pollsters about the death penalty or Brexit or trans-rights (all of which are examples of people feeling they have to give the "right" answer)... But they do about homosexuality.
That's your contention, right?
yes but to be considered a homophobe in our society is much worse than to be regarded as anti brexit. So people lie online too
Fortunately, we can use evidence to see if this is correct. Do "pro gay" referendums do less well than polls?
Ireland in 2015 had a referendum on gay marriage. (Ireland, of course, is a notably more religious country than the UK.)
Eve of election polls had "yes" to gay marriage running between 53% and 69%. The actual result was 62% in favour of gay marriage.
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
He has got to stand first, and you are projecting your own hope which is fair enough, as after seeing Rishi's video tonight I really do want him to become PM and put paid to all this Little Englander nonsense
Indeed I would recommend everyone who is interested in the betting to watch the video which is available on the Guardian web site
A niche remainer/Mayite wing under Hunt The 'foreign policy/armed forces wing' under Wallace, Truss, Mordaunt The economy wing under Sunak, Javid, Zahawi The brexiteer/spartan wing under Baker and Sundry nutters
I see the US is sending another 4 HIMARS to Ukraine, to make 12 in total, plus the M270s that will be coming from the UK. This is going to keep adding up. It will become increasingly difficult for Russia.
Am a little confused as to exactly how HY knows so much about red wall ex Labour forever voters who converted to the Tories via Brexit. Am very glad he is here to educate me though, because I am clueless about such voters...
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
One key issue about changing it: to roll back gay marriage, you have to annul and undo hundreds of thousands of marriages. Including reversing the legal ramifications such as next of kin aspects and inheritances, including inheritances that have already happened.
Massive issue.
There was an odd one on ?R5L? a few years ago. An American ?General? had been against the ending of "Don't ask, don't tell" by the Obama Administration. Yet when interviewed about it during the Trump Presidency, he said it had been a wrong move, but he was now against gays being banned from serving. The reason? Many good homosexual men and women had fought for the country, and having served with valour, they should not be thrown out.
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
Wallace v Sunak would be an interesting final among the members.
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
Why do you think these people now lie to internet pollsters about their views on homosexuality?
they say what they are expected to say and what is the socially fashionable thing to say thats all...as Boris Johnson said yesterday the herd instinct and urge to conform is powerful in humans...why we are so susceptible to propoganda....Hitler knew this
That's a very common phenomenon: people say different things to phone and online pollsters. It's why the online pollsters got Brexit right, and the phone pollsters did not.
There's only one teeny weeny problem with your view: the on-line pollsters give basically the same answers regarding homosexuality as do phone pollsters.
So: people don't lie to on-line pollsters about the death penalty or Brexit or trans-rights (all of which are examples of people feeling they have to give the "right" answer)... But they do about homosexuality.
That's your contention, right?
yes but to be considered a homophobe in our society is much worse than to be regarded as anti brexit. So people lie online too
Fortunately, we can use evidence to see if this is correct. Do "pro gay" referendums do less well than polls?
Ireland in 2015 had a referendum on gay marriage. (Ireland, of course, is a notably more religious country than the UK.)
Eve of election polls had "yes" to gay marriage running between 53% and 69%. The actual result was 62% in favour of gay marriage.
well of course people internalize propaganda until it becomes part of their identity...they cant vote against that
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
(a) a majority wanted Johnson to stay as leader (b) Rishi Sunak has a slight lead with 25%, over Liz Truss.
If I was a Tory member (which thank the Lord I'm not sir) I would definitely vote for Rishi. In fact he's the only one on that list that I would consider voting for. I have never heard him utter the words 'He got all the big calls right' which at least makes him eligible
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
"can buy own wallpaper".
To think that I have lived to see the day when such is a key selective metric for the leader of the UK.
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
Is Wallace running? I think not.
I wonder if his interst isnt wholly defence/armed forces and he will support someone who guarantees his job
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
especially amongst older people tolerance for gays is only skin deep.....and in the gym where i workout there aint much tolerance for gays either...they are at best put up with....like i say a backlash against gays is quite possible
Why do you think these people now lie to internet pollsters about their views on homosexuality?
they say what they are expected to say and what is the socially fashionable thing to say thats all...as Boris Johnson said yesterday the herd instinct and urge to conform is powerful in humans...why we are so susceptible to propoganda....Hitler knew this
That's a very common phenomenon: people say different things to phone and online pollsters. It's why the online pollsters got Brexit right, and the phone pollsters did not.
There's only one teeny weeny problem with your view: the on-line pollsters give basically the same answers regarding homosexuality as do phone pollsters.
So: people don't lie to on-line pollsters about the death penalty or Brexit or trans-rights (all of which are examples of people feeling they have to give the "right" answer)... But they do about homosexuality.
That's your contention, right?
yes but to be considered a homophobe in our society is much worse than to be regarded as anti brexit. So people lie online too
Fortunately, we can use evidence to see if this is correct. Do "pro gay" referendums do less well than polls?
Ireland in 2015 had a referendum on gay marriage. (Ireland, of course, is a notably more religious country than the UK.)
Eve of election polls had "yes" to gay marriage running between 53% and 69%. The actual result was 62% in favour of gay marriage.
well of course people internalize propaganda until it becomes part of their identity...they cant vote against that
Yes, that must be it.
The propaganda that the poor Irish were fed must have addled their brains.
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
Is Wallace running? I think not.
I wonder if his interst isnt wholly defence/armed forces and he will support someone who guarantees his job
As he said the other day, he’s got rather more important matters of State on his plate right now.
Can’t see him running, and he’ll stand by anyone who guarantees his own job as representing continuity in Ukraine.
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
My record on Tory leadership contests is bad, but in your scenario you'd need Rishi to pick up a lot of the Brexiteer MPs, and they seem to be cool on him because of the tax increases.
I reckon this means a final three of Sunak, Truss and Mordaunt is more likely, and I'd think either of the others would fancy their chances against Sunak in a members vote.
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
One key issue about changing it: to roll back gay marriage, you have to annul and undo hundreds of thousands of marriages. Including reversing the legal ramifications such as next of kin aspects and inheritances, including inheritances that have already happened.
Massive issue.
There was an odd one on ?R5L? a few years ago. An American ?General? had been against the ending of "Don't ask, don't tell" by the Obama Administration. Yet when interviewed about it during the Trump Presidency, he said it had been a wrong move, but he was now against gays being banned from serving. The reason? Many good homosexual men and women had fought for the country, and having served with valour, they should not be thrown out.
It was an 'interesting' position.
I don't agree with his initial position, but I do like a person who recognises hysteresis.
Otherwise, if it’s Rishi OR Truss versus Wallace OR Mordaunt, then I think the latter wins.
Hunt and Zahawi already look out for the count.
Tugendhat is a wildcard. He’s a Remainer, but perhaps the parliamentary party would not be unhappy to send him to the Membership.
Broadly agree. Whether Rishi wins depends on the MPs wanting him AND who he is finally paired with.
Unless something changes if they want a boring clean hands centrist (sadly they won't) the only way to get one is send both Tugendhat and Hunt to the members. Either will lose against a populist.
What does Wallace think about anything at all? He is a very blank screen. Too loyal to Boris.
Mordaunt could well stay the distance.
Never has the Downing Street Selling Plater been harder to call.
A niche remainer/Mayite wing under Hunt The 'foreign policy/armed forces wing' under Wallace, Truss, Mordaunt The economy wing under Sunak, Javid, Zahawi The brexiteer/spartan wing under Baker and Sundry nutters
Ere long, the Tory Party will have more wings than the Cycloplane.
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
Is Wallace running? I think not.
I wonder if his interst isnt wholly defence/armed forces and he will support someone who guarantees his job
Do you think it's question of guaranteeing Wallace's day job?
You do know there's a war on? And he's about the only semi-competent member of the BoJo govt.
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
Apparently Mordaunt already has the support of Fabricant, so she's made a start on attracting Boris loyalists.
Anyway, having watched his money no object campaign video I am once again declaring that I am Ready For Rishi.
If the Tories are serious about winning the next election, you need Rishi Sunak. A northern MP who has shown that he can parachute cash where its needed and puts levelling up front and centre. But he's also clear that we can't mortgage our kids' futures by spending daft.
Rishi talks human. Yes OK so he is a gazillionaire who doesn't know how contactless payments work. But half the candidates are gormless about something, and more than half downright nasty.
Sunak is the bridge between classic Toryism and the new north. He will show how he was whipped along to make mad pledges by the now ousted liar who was obsessed with boosterism. Thus pleasing the fiscal conservatives.
But he is relatively young, photogenic, affable and serious. Which is what we need. Way better than so many of the likely candidates already.
Rishi can afford to buy his own wallpaper. Ironically, he won't have to because the previous tenants had the place done up.
Ironically, he will have to because the previous tenants had the place done up.
Anyway, having watched his money no object campaign video I am once again declaring that I am Ready For Rishi.
If the Tories are serious about winning the next election, you need Rishi Sunak. A northern MP who has shown that he can parachute cash where its needed and puts levelling up front and centre. But he's also clear that we can't mortgage our kids' futures by spending daft.
Rishi talks human. Yes OK so he is a gazillionaire who doesn't know how contactless payments work. But half the candidates are gormless about something, and more than half downright nasty.
Sunak is the bridge between classic Toryism and the new north. He will show how he was whipped along to make mad pledges by the now ousted liar who was obsessed with boosterism. Thus pleasing the fiscal conservatives.
But he is relatively young, photogenic, affable and serious. Which is what we need. Way better than so many of the likely candidates already.
Rishi can afford to buy his own wallpaper. Ironically, he won't have to because the previous tenants had the place done up.
Ironically, he will have to because the previous tenants had the place done up.
I dont care how rich Sunak is - I care whether he has ideas, policies and the management chops to actually govern - something that has been lacking for two years as we entertain ourselves with the end of pier clown show
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
One key issue about changing it: to roll back gay marriage, you have to annul and undo hundreds of thousands of marriages. Including reversing the legal ramifications such as next of kin aspects and inheritances, including inheritances that have already happened.
Massive issue.
I haven't been invited to a gay wedding, but loads of people must have gone to one, and it's hard to see how my heterosexual marriage has been damaged by them. I can understand why a large minority were uncomfortable about the change, but it must only be a very small minority that would support reversing it now.
I celebrate the diversity of having open homophobes on the site. Which means I'm a metropolitan liberal who doesn't understand the Red Wall. Or summat. Still. It'll be different in the 2030's old fella me lad.
Who's a homophobe?
Another classic sign of being Woke: saying that anyone who objects to Woke is a bigot.
Er, no. Someone was celebrating the idea of propaganda (their word) use for a 'populist' government to repeal gay marriage, because it was accepted a majority do not and would not back it (and thus is not populist at all).
Woke has nothing to do with it. I'm opposed to a lot of silly stuff that bears the woke label, but this had nothing to do with it. Unless knowing gay people is a 'metropolitan bubble' thing is thought to be a sensible point.
My point was that when you say 'Woke is a problem ' the usual response of the Woke is to say 'what's Woke?' and then when you give examples of its dogmatic, obsessive and divisive nature to say 'so you think racism/ sexism/ homophobia is ok then?'.
This is a classic sign of being Woke. It's totally impervious to criticism or reason.
My I ask (gently) do you think that there are zero homophobic people posting on PB?
Or are you objecting to someone being charged with homophobia on here due to something they post?
Seems to me, from my perspective, that you are very close to saying, that anyone alleging that someone or something is anti-gay, is ipso facto woke. Is that incorrect re: your views?
there are no homophobes posting on PB
That’s only because we haven’t heard from KevinBee.
Jeez christ on stilts - I have just seen the Jo Maugham tweet.
Feck me.
One of the worst tweets I have ever seen.
He’s also issued a terrible non-apology apology
“I have deleted a question to Rishi Sunak about attitudes to race in the Conservative Party membership. My point was, I want, we should all want, greater representation of people of colour leading all political parties. But it's not an issue particular to the Conservative Party.”
One of those clever men that is somehow very stupid
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
One key issue about changing it: to roll back gay marriage, you have to annul and undo hundreds of thousands of marriages. Including reversing the legal ramifications such as next of kin aspects and inheritances, including inheritances that have already happened.
Massive issue.
I haven't been invited to a gay wedding, but loads of people must have gone to one, and it's hard to see how my heterosexual marriage has been damaged by them. I can understand why a large minority were uncomfortable about the change, but it must only be a very small minority that would support reversing it now.
Anyway, having watched his money no object campaign video I am once again declaring that I am Ready For Rishi.
If the Tories are serious about winning the next election, you need Rishi Sunak. A northern MP who has shown that he can parachute cash where its needed and puts levelling up front and centre. But he's also clear that we can't mortgage our kids' futures by spending daft.
Rishi talks human. Yes OK so he is a gazillionaire who doesn't know how contactless payments work. But half the candidates are gormless about something, and more than half downright nasty.
Sunak is the bridge between classic Toryism and the new north. He will show how he was whipped along to make mad pledges by the now ousted liar who was obsessed with boosterism. Thus pleasing the fiscal conservatives.
But he is relatively young, photogenic, affable and serious. Which is what we need. Way better than so many of the likely candidates already.
Rishi can afford to buy his own wallpaper. Ironically, he won't have to because the previous tenants had the place done up.
Ironically, he will have to because the previous tenants had the place done up.
Actually, enduring with dignity, the gross indignity of living in a tarted-up Turkish knocking-shop will be one way the next Prime Minister & consort can demonstrate their resolve and dedication to serving the British people to the utmost, regardless of person considerations.
Of course new PM will also have No. 10 thoroughly fumigated. Wouldn't you?
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
Apparently Mordaunt already has the support of Fabricant, so she's made a start on attracting Boris loyalists.
And this one to see if it can handle a higher res.
I guarantee no one on here will ever have been to this place and I'd be incredibly surprised if anyone can guess where it is.
Oh. I've just come into the thread, liked the picture, and was about to ask you where it was. Nice pic, anyway. Have we established whether it is Britain or abroad?
And this one to see if it can handle a higher res.
I guarantee no one on here will ever have been to this place and I'd be incredibly surprised if anyone can guess where it is.
Oh. I've just come into the thread, liked the picture, and was about to ask you where it was. Nice pic, anyway. Have we established whether it is Britain or abroad?
...I mean, I'm assuming abroad, but if Britain I might have a chance...
Looks like Sunak is going for the "Most Serious Candidate" fiscal sense mantle.
Will it work?
Or will the Tory MPs put him forward to membership against some mad loon, swivelling their eyes and yelling Brexit, England, Rwanda, Save the Statues, Betrayal?
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader again
I thought you wanted to win elections at any cost. A "traditional Conservative leader" isn't what your electoral coalition - so many of whom never voted for "traditional Conservative leaders" - will vote for.
Actually you will find plenty of red wall voters are socially conservative, Brexiteers who want tighter immigration controls and strong local communities and traditional values. Not metropolitan liberals and globalists like you and Sunak and they are the key swing voters
Its just that I know red wall voters. Having lived there. And they did not vote for traditional Conservatives. They voted for Brexit and then for the voice of Brexit, and they want the cash they were promised.
It took the fishermen a couple of years to realise that they were sold a pup. The Red Wall would eventually have found the same if only Boris had remained in post.
Jeez christ on stilts - I have just seen the Jo Maugham tweet.
Feck me.
One of the worst tweets I have ever seen.
He’s also issued a terrible non-apology apology
“I have deleted a question to Rishi Sunak about attitudes to race in the Conservative Party membership. My point was, I want, we should all want, greater representation of people of colour leading all political parties. But it's not an issue particular to the Conservative Party.”
One of those clever men that is somehow very stupid
Give how often he loses court cases I am not sure about the clever bit.
It’s weird following (yet another) Tory leadership election. Hard to get excited for obvious reasons. They’re all not my cup of tea. So you’re left wondering who’s the least worst for the country (tough), who’s the most likely to lose the next election (quite a few losers there) and who would I pick if I were mad enough to support the Tories (yuck). And then you realise it’s all a bit rubbish and switch off. It was more fun before he quit.
Although Baldwin was famously a radio performer, it strikes me that the Conservatives had no TV performer on a par with Wilson, namely a good TV performer, until first David Cameron and second Boris Johnson.
And this one to see if it can handle a higher res.
I guarantee no one on here will ever have been to this place and I'd be incredibly surprised if anyone can guess where it is.
Oh. I've just come into the thread, liked the picture, and was about to ask you where it was. Nice pic, anyway. Have we established whether it is Britain or abroad?
Thanks!
My only clue to this one is that it's not Britain.
I'm heading off here for now but I'll be really impressed if someone can guess where it is.
I see the US is sending another 4 HIMARS to Ukraine, to make 12 in total, plus the M270s that will be coming from the UK. This is going to keep adding up. It will become increasingly difficult for Russia.
Did you see the absolutely laughable announcement that Russia made saying they had destroyed 2 HIMARS. It was proper lols.
And anyway the important point about HIMARS is that the vehicle is dirt cheap, it is the GPS guided missiles that are the expensive bit.
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
One key issue about changing it: to roll back gay marriage, you have to annul and undo hundreds of thousands of marriages. Including reversing the legal ramifications such as next of kin aspects and inheritances, including inheritances that have already happened.
Massive issue.
I haven't been invited to a gay wedding, but loads of people must have gone to one, and it's hard to see how my heterosexual marriage has been damaged by them. I can understand why a large minority were uncomfortable about the change, but it must only be a very small minority that would support reversing it now.
We have and it was a lovely occasion
dunno i often spot in gay marriage photos the grooms parents with forced smiles looking distinctly uncomfortable...as in social pressure tells us we should be happy but is this what we really want for our son....check gay wedding photos you will see what i mean
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
"can buy own wallpaper".
To think that I have lived to see the day when such is a key selective metric for the leader of the UK.
It's better than whether he or she has wanked Sean Thomas.
I may of course be proved wrong, but I just can’t see Sunak getting it.
It feels to me that all the positive mood music of recent days have overlooked the three elephants in the room as to his candidacy:
1. The fixed penalty notice 2. The whole wife’s tax affair stuff 3. Some of the Tories’ distinct uncomfortableness with some of the economic policies since COVID.
Given that 1-2 in part contributed to the torrid headlines the Tories received at the start of this year I remain to be convinced that it’s the best move to endorse the source of these issues for leader…
Jeez christ on stilts - I have just seen the Jo Maugham tweet.
Feck me.
One of the worst tweets I have ever seen.
Rishi becoming PM is an existential threat to part of his worldview.
As the economics of the parties has brown closer, cultural shibboleths are all that remain to differentiate. For some…
It’s like this in his head
1) ALL TORIES ARE RACIST 2) All posts occupied by non white Tory minister are just tokens. 3) If Rishi becomes PM then he can’t be a token. 4) ALL TORIES ARE RACIST 5) but Rishi isn’t white and isn’t a token. Also theology says that non-white people can’t be racist. 6) BUS ERROR CORE DUMP. REBOOT IN PROGRESS 7) without the racism how can I differentiate myself from Tories? 8) HELP!
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
One key issue about changing it: to roll back gay marriage, you have to annul and undo hundreds of thousands of marriages. Including reversing the legal ramifications such as next of kin aspects and inheritances, including inheritances that have already happened.
Massive issue.
I haven't been invited to a gay wedding, but loads of people must have gone to one, and it's hard to see how my heterosexual marriage has been damaged by them. I can understand why a large minority were uncomfortable about the change, but it must only be a very small minority that would support reversing it now.
Personally, I don't see what all the fuss was about. Gay people were always allowed to get married. Just not to someone they love.
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
One key issue about changing it: to roll back gay marriage, you have to annul and undo hundreds of thousands of marriages. Including reversing the legal ramifications such as next of kin aspects and inheritances, including inheritances that have already happened.
Massive issue.
I haven't been invited to a gay wedding, but loads of people must have gone to one, and it's hard to see how my heterosexual marriage has been damaged by them. I can understand why a large minority were uncomfortable about the change, but it must only be a very small minority that would support reversing it now.
We have and it was a lovely occasion
dunno i often spot in gay marriage photos the grooms parents with forced smiles looking distinctly uncomfortable...as in social pressure tells us we should be happy but is this what we really want for our son....check gay wedding photos you will see what i mean
I reject your comments completely and your prejudice is unacceptable
Watched the Rishi vid. Not bad. The Tories could do worse. He’s got more charm and charisma than Starmer, but he’s no Boris, for good or ill
My god he is tiny tho. A leprechaun of a man
i think people might forgive the wealth stuff, as at least it makes him incorruptible. And he has an excellent backstory about immigration and social mobility. It will be quite hard for Labour to fight him, because any outright attacks might look like racism
All in all, a pretty good choice. I agree it will probably end up as Sunak V Truss or Mordaunt
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
Wallace v Sunak would be an interesting final among the members.
Normally the final 2 are a One Nation centrist v a rightwinger eg Johnson v Hunt, May v Leadsom, Cameron v Davis, IDS v Clarke, Hague v Clarke, Major v Redwood (in 1990 Major presented himself as a Thatcherite rightwinger v Heseltine).
So in my view Tugendhat or Hunt v Wallace is more likely than Sunak or Truss v Wallace.
Metropolitan libertarians eg Portillo or Gove or effectively Sunak and Truss rarely make the final 2
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
Most of Boris' support will swing behind Wallace rather than Truss next week, anti Boris MPs will split between Sunak, Hunt, Tugendhat and Javid, giving Wallace enough to make the final 2
Apparently Mordaunt already has the support of Fabricant, so she's made a start on attracting Boris loyalists.
Correction - Boris impersonators.
Or the loony vote, in which case she ought to be joint favourite.
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS
He very well may and confound your panic
I suspect that in these circumstances, @HYUFD is probably representative of other Tory members. Of course, if there is a coronation, the members will have no choice.
Be worth it not being a coronation, even if it means more of Boris, just to prevent the endless whining from the losers about how the members were not consulted.
I see the US is sending another 4 HIMARS to Ukraine, to make 12 in total, plus the M270s that will be coming from the UK. This is going to keep adding up. It will become increasingly difficult for Russia.
Did you see the absolutely laughable announcement that Russia made saying they had destroyed 2 HIMARS. It was proper lols.
And anyway the important point about HIMARS is that the vehicle is dirt cheap, it is the GPS guided missiles that are the expensive bit.
What I realised after seeing several tweets about destroyed Russian ammunition dumps was that we haven't seen any recent successful Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian fuel facilities that were quite frequent for a while. And a Kyiv journalist posted that the fuel shortages had come to an end.
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
One key issue about changing it: to roll back gay marriage, you have to annul and undo hundreds of thousands of marriages. Including reversing the legal ramifications such as next of kin aspects and inheritances, including inheritances that have already happened.
Massive issue.
I haven't been invited to a gay wedding, but loads of people must have gone to one, and it's hard to see how my heterosexual marriage has been damaged by them. I can understand why a large minority were uncomfortable about the change, but it must only be a very small minority that would support reversing it now.
We have and it was a lovely occasion
dunno i often spot in gay marriage photos the grooms parents with forced smiles looking distinctly uncomfortable...as in social pressure tells us we should be happy but is this what we really want for our son....check gay wedding photos you will see what i mean
That's a) bollocks, and b) pretty offensive to those of us who have gay offspring (let alone those who are gay themselves).
Jeez christ on stilts - I have just seen the Jo Maugham tweet.
Feck me.
One of the worst tweets I have ever seen.
He’s also issued a terrible non-apology apology
“I have deleted a question to Rishi Sunak about attitudes to race in the Conservative Party membership. My point was, I want, we should all want, greater representation of people of colour leading all political parties. But it's not an issue particular to the Conservative Party.”
One of those clever men that is somehow very stupid
At the moment I wouldn't dream of voting Tory until they are sorted out but...while there is a long way to go the Tory party as a whole in recent years has done two things: it has put forward a very decent number of BAME people into all sorts of positions and, crucially, one gets no sense at all of tokenism, or putting up people for any reason other than ability.
They have also created a climate in which everyone can be fabulously rude about, say, Priti Patel without thinking they have to go soft on her because...this is, weirdly, good too. Like normalising that which should be normal. 'Content of character not colour of skin' and all that.
It's going to be Sunak. He ticks all the boxes: supported by MPs, members will vote for him, possesses rudimentary political skills and is a serious person. I think all the other candidates fail on at least one of those grounds. I think support will coalesce around him quickly and he will beat Truss or whoever else is up against him in the members' vote.
He won't, he is the David Miliband or Michael Portillo of this race, too liberal, too slick, too presumptuous when what the party wanted was a return to traditional socialist or social democrat values with Ed Miliband or traditional Conservative values with IDS.
Wallace also beat Sunak 51% to 30% in the recent Yougov Tory members poll
You obsess with polling and only polling. Sunak is the only candidate who can win you the election.
We have already been in power 12 years, most of which under centre right liberal leaders. It is time for a traditional Conservative leader again
As has been said if you want the conservatives to win the next GE then Rishi is the one who could do it
Watch his video and realise he is the very antithesis of the Little Englander attitude of some in the party
He is a slick, ex banker metropolitan liberal, the exact opposite of what is needed to win back the redwall
Maybe. But they don't need to win back the entire Red Wall, they need to limit the damage done overall to the Tory brand. With the majority to defend, that could be enough.
I’m making my early prediction - which will be bollocks no doubt.
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
"can buy own wallpaper".
To think that I have lived to see the day when such is a key selective metric for the leader of the UK.
It's better than whether he or she has wanked Sean Thomas.
Urgh, please. (Though I don't have a Speccy sub, so never found out what happened.)
Of course, KevinB has rather missed an enormous logic hole in his fantasy.
He's been assuring us that the oldest voters are sufficiently against gay marriage to be supportive of overturning it. And whilst over-65s are the still net in favour, they are the least accepting age group.
However, there's an issue with relying on the over-65s group providing your core support 30+ years from now. I wonder if he can spot it.
(And the possible loophole that maybe people become more anti-gay-marriage as they age has not been seen at all; if anything, they've been going the other way. And each echelon has been retaining their pro-gay-marriage bias as they age into the next age group. Understandable, really, the adage that people become more conservative as they age tends to be by viewing whatever was the default when they were younger as being how things should be in future - and thirty years from now, most people will have had gay marriage as being normal for a long long time)
I think it's far more simple than that: it's social proof and convention.
It was working against gay people and now it works for them.
That can change, and change quickly, as the Supreme Court decision has started to roll things back and reopen debate in the USA and here.
I see what you mean, but I think that's a poor framing. Social conventions were working against gays, but it is not working 'for' them now. What has happened is that many, if not most, people simply do not care. The conventions are not working 'for' them; the conventions just don't care.
That's great IMO, as it is equality.
But you are correct that that could change, and perhaps rapidly.
One key issue about changing it: to roll back gay marriage, you have to annul and undo hundreds of thousands of marriages. Including reversing the legal ramifications such as next of kin aspects and inheritances, including inheritances that have already happened.
Massive issue.
I haven't been invited to a gay wedding, but loads of people must have gone to one, and it's hard to see how my heterosexual marriage has been damaged by them. I can understand why a large minority were uncomfortable about the change, but it must only be a very small minority that would support reversing it now.
We have and it was a lovely occasion
dunno i often spot in gay marriage photos the grooms parents with forced smiles looking distinctly uncomfortable...as in social pressure tells us we should be happy but is this what we really want for our son....check gay wedding photos you will see what i mean
I reject your comments completely and your prejudice is unacceptable
im talking the grooms parents...check some of the photos
Comments
It’s going to get to a choice of three - Rishi, Truss and a hunt/tugendhat.
Rishi will have the numbers, not enough to beat Truss but the hunt/other crew will realise he’s a better option than Truss and publicly shift their support to Rishi.
It will be made clear to Truss she won’t win a run-off and will be offered a senior role.
They (not Truss) will do what is necessary to avoid it going to the membership.
Rishi will ultimately be a palatable pick for most of the MPs, young, fresh, dishing Labour by having a BAME (not sure if this is the correct term) experienced at the highest level, doesn’t need money so not corruptible and can buy own wallpaper, Brexiters but pragmatic, sound money but can sell the idea to the country “were in the shit so this isn’t what I want but pull together for a bit longer and all will be better”.
As I said - prob balls but I think it’s a good chance.
If you DM me your email addy I can send you a high res, given that you are so attached to Montenegro!
He hasn’t even announced yet.
Massive issue.
(FX: gets mind bleach.)
Not that I'm going to inflict a ton of holiday snaps on y'all. Promise.
Ireland in 2015 had a referendum on gay marriage. (Ireland, of course, is a notably more religious country than the UK.)
Eve of election polls had "yes" to gay marriage running between 53% and 69%. The actual result was 62% in favour of gay marriage.
If it’s Rishi v Truss, then Rishi wins.
Otherwise, if it’s Rishi OR Truss versus Wallace OR Mordaunt, then I think the latter wins.
Hunt and Zahawi already look out for the count.
Tugendhat is a wildcard. He’s a Remainer, but perhaps the parliamentary party would not be unhappy to send him to the Membership.
Indeed I would recommend everyone who is interested in the betting to watch the video which is available on the Guardian web site
A niche remainer/Mayite wing under Hunt
The 'foreign policy/armed forces wing' under Wallace, Truss, Mordaunt
The economy wing under Sunak, Javid, Zahawi
The brexiteer/spartan wing under Baker and
Sundry nutters
It was an 'interesting' position.
To think that I have lived to see the day when such is a key selective metric for the leader of the UK.
Doesn't seem to work with my Mac
The propaganda that the poor Irish were fed must have addled their brains.
Can’t see him running, and he’ll stand by anyone who guarantees his own job as representing continuity in Ukraine.
I reckon this means a final three of Sunak, Truss and Mordaunt is more likely, and I'd think either of the others would fancy their chances against Sunak in a members vote.
Feck me.
One of the worst tweets I have ever seen.
Unless something changes if they want a boring clean hands centrist (sadly they won't) the only way to get one is send both Tugendhat and Hunt to the members. Either will lose against a populist.
What does Wallace think about anything at all? He is a very blank screen. Too loyal to Boris.
Mordaunt could well stay the distance.
Never has the Downing Street Selling Plater been harder to call.
https://www.britishpathe.com/video/novel-cycleplane/query/cycleplane
You're very sweet. I use that all the time. Screen print is a brilliant apple feature.
The problem is pasting back on here. It doesn't seem to want to accept either drag and drop or command-v (which is apple paste)
You do know there's a war on? And he's about the only semi-competent member of the BoJo govt.
Testing this out
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1545471598047940608?t=U7ZrFDO0KSIZyOiTepON4g&s=19
Linked without comment
“I have deleted a question to Rishi Sunak about attitudes to race in the Conservative Party membership. My point was, I want, we should all want, greater representation of people of colour leading all political parties. But it's not an issue particular to the Conservative Party.”
One of those clever men that is somehow very stupid
And a portrait vs landscape test
Of course new PM will also have No. 10 thoroughly fumigated. Wouldn't you?
Will it work?
Or will the Tory MPs put him forward to membership against some mad loon, swivelling their eyes and yelling Brexit, England, Rwanda, Save the Statues, Betrayal?
Who would obvs win.
My only clue to this one is that it's not Britain.
I'm heading off here for now but I'll be really impressed if someone can guess where it is.
x
And anyway the important point about HIMARS is that the vehicle is dirt cheap, it is the GPS guided missiles that are the expensive bit.
What a thrilling contest.
Is it the south central Ural mountains facing south west on a Thursday??
It feels to me that all the positive mood music of recent days have overlooked the three elephants in the room as to his candidacy:
1. The fixed penalty notice
2. The whole wife’s tax affair stuff
3. Some of the Tories’ distinct uncomfortableness with some of the economic policies since COVID.
Given that 1-2 in part contributed to the torrid headlines the Tories received at the start of this year I remain to be convinced that it’s the best move to endorse the source of these issues for leader…
As the economics of the parties has brown closer, cultural shibboleths are all that remain to differentiate. For some…
It’s like this in his head
1) ALL TORIES ARE RACIST
2) All posts occupied by non white Tory minister are just tokens.
3) If Rishi becomes PM then he can’t be a token.
4) ALL TORIES ARE RACIST
5) but Rishi isn’t white and isn’t a token. Also theology says that non-white people can’t be racist.
6) BUS ERROR CORE DUMP. REBOOT IN PROGRESS
7) without the racism how can I differentiate myself from Tories?
8) HELP!
My god he is tiny tho. A leprechaun of a man
i think people might forgive the wealth stuff, as at least it makes him incorruptible. And he has an excellent backstory about immigration and social mobility. It will be quite hard for Labour to fight him, because any outright attacks might look like racism
All in all, a pretty good choice. I agree it will probably end up as Sunak V Truss or Mordaunt
So in my view Tugendhat or Hunt v Wallace is more likely than Sunak or Truss v Wallace.
Metropolitan libertarians eg Portillo or Gove or effectively Sunak and Truss rarely make the final 2
Edit - Confirmed.
They have also created a climate in which everyone can be fabulously rude about, say, Priti Patel without thinking they have to go soft on her because...this is, weirdly, good too. Like normalising that which should be normal. 'Content of character not colour of skin' and all that.
This is a decent achievement.
Kemi Badenoch for leader next time.