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A day long remembered – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921
    Peston on ITV News seems elated
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850
    OllyT said:

    How many of them buy and read political biographies?
    Way more than 5,000. And - for the record - the books don't need to be read, only bought.

    @Heathener might as well send the £20 to @Leon now.

    (Also, without a time horizon, the bet is ridiculous. Eventually 5,000 sales will be reached.)
  • I would like to discuss now, the outcomes of the next election, not as a Labour fanboy but as somebody interested in betting.

    I note the YouGov polling this morning which says all leadership candidates bar Wallace, have the public scoring as doing worse than good. A heavy caveat is that many are unknown.

    I would support Wallace as PM, he seems a decent guy and has done well in Ukraine. I could not vote for this iteration of the Tory Party whilst people like Nadine are still around but I would have hope for its future with him at the helm. He scores well with the leadership, he surely must be a good contender.

    Other than that Penny Morduant, who I confess I know little about, would also seem to be popular with the Tory Party. Perhaps others can speak more.

    The next election then, will not be about personalities but instead possibly about policies. The difficulty for any Tory now is that without Johnson they will probably lose a large number of voters anyway who only voted for Johnson (albeit they dwindled). This new PM will have 13 years of Government to defend, a CoL crisis and rising bills and a possibly incoming recession.

    I think my central estimate of a Hung Parliament remains fair - but a Labour majority and indeed Tory majority, is also not out of the question. I do not think we will see a large majority on either side.

    It will be a repeat of 2015, or 2010, I think.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,223

    NEW THREAD

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    I think there's a good chance he can stay on until the leadership election is concluded now. That was a fairly straight resignation speech, and he has a Cabinet back in place now.

    Attention will turn to the contest to replace him, and that will take the heat out of the demands that he should immediately step aside. I don't think any of the leadership contenders will want to see an interim PM, and nor will they all give up their chance of the top job to produce a coronation.

    Can't say I'm happy about this, but seems to be where it's going.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,927
    HYUFD said:

    I doubt it, though might save a few seats.

    Most probably unfortunately we are heading for up to a decade in opposition
    Labour aren't going to win a majority, that's pretty certain.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,838
    edited July 2022
    CARRY ON BORIS

    Starring:
    Hattie Jacques (in reverse drag) as Boris Johnson
    Sid James as Sir Keir Starmer
    Kenneth Williams as Jacob Rees-Mogg
    Barbara Windsor as Nadine Dorries
    Bernard Bresslaw as Dominic Raab

    and anyone else anyone can be bothered to think of
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,333

    Wallace hasn't a prayer. Truss is the only game in town.
    Conhome next Tory leader playoff

    Wallace 51% Truss 33%

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-third-liz-truss/

    Truss has more chance than Hunt or Sunak but Wallace still likely beats her
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,843
    Tory MPs already calling for immediate stand down
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,110
    Nigelb said:

    Don't know whether it will matter, but I'm fairly certain there's a majority in Parliament who are unhappy with that.
    Lots of Tory MPs have been saying it's not acceptable.
    What usually happens is that the old PM stays on until the new leader is chosen. I think, therefore, that that remains the most likely thing to happen again. Anger among Tory MPs will probably reside as they focus on the leadership election. I’d be happy to see him out today, but I think it unlikely.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,850
    Cookie said:

    Off topic, but @Sandpit, given our conversation last week, you may be interested to know that a colleague of mine is moving to Dubai - when I asked him what the main push/pull factors were, the number one thing in his list was schools.
    I have friends in Dubai with kids our age (12 and 14). They said schooling (while expensive) was good when the kids were young, but is not great at the secondary level - lots of teacher and student turnover at most places.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,067

    If the conservatives mps have any sense they will arrange a coronation and new PM in two weeks
    Too many people want it. They'd need to agree a caretaker like May, to formally be leader unopposed, and hope she keeps word to stand down for a replacement.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 730
    DM_Andy said:

    To be fair, there's not a lot of depth for Welsh Tory MPs. Stephen Crabb, David Jones and Alun Cairns have all already done the job, Simon Hart just stepped down, David Davies tweeted that he wouldn't take the job if offered and all the other Welsh Tories are 2019 intake. Swindon's at least in the same ITV region.
    Swindon is in ITV Wales ???
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,422
    NEW THREAD
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,130
    HYUFD said:

    Good, measured resignation speech by Boris

    LOL!!!
This discussion has been closed.