If members think Liz Truss is the answer.. god Help us all
I will laugh hysterically if having pushed so hard to get rid of Boris left liberal PBers now end up with Steve Baker, Priti Patel, Liz Truss or Suella Braverman as PM once it gets to the Tory membership.
Boris might end up the moderate PM of this Tory government!!
Right wing, and EU Sceptic Conservatives wanted him gone.
It's not about policy. It's about his being an amoral, sociopathic snake.
Even if he was, as El Capitano says he was also a relatively Liberal, One Nation amoral, sociopathic snake apart from Brexit.
Once he goes the Tories will now likely move even further to the tax cutting, small state, anti Woke, anti lockdown right in the next few years while still keeping Johnson's hard Brexit approach
So what? The red wall do not want tax cutting and a small state. They want levelling up.
Yes but the Red Wall voted for Boris and to get Brexit done not the Tory Party, now Brexit has got done and Boris is not even Tory leader
Sorry, but as I have said before, you lose credibility with your statements that are presented as facts. This is complete cobblers, and Mike has presented at least two headers with strong evidence that the strongest motivation for people in those seats at that election was stopping Corbyn. You are like a "speak your weight" machine that keeps repeating political slogans.
As for your other statement that Wallace will win the membership vote, that may be the balance of probability, but it is not fact. Try applying a little nuance, or perhaps start your sentences with IMO. You are not fecking Nostradamus.
In 2017 the redwall seats voted for Corbyn.
The redwall seats only voted Conservative in 2019 for Boris and to get Brexit done.
Now neither no longer apply they will likely go back to Labour again on the whole
Bet yesterday on Dominic Raab on Smarkets as next PM thinking he might be interim PM. Smarkets have made clear on their rules though that interim PM would not count (despite the claim no such thing exists).
However Raab has come in to 6.6-6.8 so I've laid off my stake and made a 420% return on my stake in 24 hours. Not bad. However if that is because others are thinking Raab will be interim, or because they're matching Betfair (where the rules indicate interim may pay out unlike Smarkets) then this could be a very good lay.
I don't see why Raab would be layable at 6.8 otherwise. Cashing out or laying Raab on Smarkets could be good value. Laying him on Smarkets and backing him on Betfair might even be potentially profitable.
The precedent? Gordon Brown. Realised he was a barrier and voluntarily resigned as party leader. But expected he would continue as PM. As that quickly became not just untenable but laughable he had to make another statement that he was going. Before it went dark.
That's not a valid precedent because when Brown left it was clear who would take over.
Do you really image the theatre of someone going to the palace to be asked to form a caretaker government?
The Deputy Prime Minister. Or if he recuses himself because he wants the job permanently, then we are back to the men in grey suits making a recommendation to the monarch. As they always used to do.
I'm still waiting for an example of when what "they always used to do" happened.
If members think Liz Truss is the answer.. god Help us all
I will laugh hysterically if having pushed so hard to get rid of Boris left liberal PBers now end up with Steve Baker, Priti Patel, Liz Truss or Suella Braverman as PM once it gets to the Tory membership.
Boris might end up the moderate PM of this Tory government!!
This is pathetic, even for your good self.
Tory MPs have forced him out. Nobody else. Not me or @CorrectHorseBattery and @Scott_xP . Your MPs in your party and nobody else.
And why have Tory MPs forced him out. Because what Boris Johnson has done is fundamentally wrong. *Morally* wrong. Procedurally wrong.
That you - even now - deny this wrongdoing speaks volumes about your lack of understanding of basic principles like right and wrong. I think you described comments like this as "abuse" yesterday. Not abuse - sorrow. As like any Christian -as opposed to the faux hypocrite ones - I will rejoice when you finally repent and recognise reality.
HYUFD doesn't understand the concept of morality. Time and time again any question of right and wrong bounces off him and he reflects it because with talking about what's legal or possible. He doesn't understand ethics, he only knows about the exercise of force.
My morality and ethics are not your left liberal morality and ethics and never will be
Indeed. I don't believe you have any morality or ethics. You have always deflected away from everything BlowJo has done and insisted its all about opinion polls. No right. No wrong. No morals. Just a naked desire for power at any price.
That's your "morality and ethics" is it?
If I had a naked desire for power at any price I would have joined the Labour Party from 1997 to 2010
Well you have already confessed to voting for Welsh independence.
Anything else you wish to confess?
No I didn't, I voted for more Tory candidates than Plaid on that town council ballot paper and Welsh independence was not on the ballot
I understand that you are basing your position on what certain current polling indicates but do you think that your certainties are premature?
We don’t know how long any leadership campaign will last and so if not a snap decision there is plenty of time for candidates to lay out their ideas and programmes which will open the eyes of the membership (and MPs). For example we can’t be 100% sure what Sunak would do as PM as whilst CotE he had a relatively narrow remit - if he puts his ideas into a wider programme then it might massively change minds.
We also don’t know what Wallace’s plans would be and his ideas might not stack up or be that attractive to the wider electorate which could serve as a hurdle.
There is also the likelihood that some will stand where the press have juicy damaging info which has been held back until “ worth using” which could derail candidates and change the balance.
I despise Boris Johnson but I’m going to buy his memoirs because that’s what I do with ex PMs.
I might have to report Leon to the rozzers for larceny. .
I will not be buying them. Not because I think Boris is a tosser, but because I have Mandleson's, Blair's, and Boris's Churchill (a present) on my bookshelves and can't be motivated to pick up any of them to read.
A bit like I dislike biopic films. Who cares what Johnny Cash did or didn't do.
He shot a man in Reno and watched him die! I care!
Thanks for the kind words on the previous topic everyone!
In the end it turns out I have a minor heart condition which causes an irregular heartbeat so from today no more caffeine, no more HIIT and I need to figure out a better diet. Glad to have had the wake-up call before anything more serious happened.
If members think Liz Truss is the answer.. god Help us all
I will laugh hysterically if having pushed so hard to get rid of Boris left liberal PBers now end up with Steve Baker, Priti Patel, Liz Truss or Suella Braverman as PM once it gets to the Tory membership.
Boris might end up the moderate PM of this Tory government!!
This is pathetic, even for your good self.
Tory MPs have forced him out. Nobody else. Not me or @CorrectHorseBattery and @Scott_xP . Your MPs in your party and nobody else.
And why have Tory MPs forced him out. Because what Boris Johnson has done is fundamentally wrong. *Morally* wrong. Procedurally wrong.
That you - even now - deny this wrongdoing speaks volumes about your lack of understanding of basic principles like right and wrong. I think you described comments like this as "abuse" yesterday. Not abuse - sorrow. As like any Christian -as opposed to the faux hypocrite ones - I will rejoice when you finally repent and recognise reality.
HYUFD doesn't understand the concept of morality. Time and time again any question of right and wrong bounces off him and he reflects it because with talking about what's legal or possible. He doesn't understand ethics, he only knows about the exercise of force.
My morality and ethics are not your left liberal morality and ethics and never will be
Is it particularly right wing to be a lying scumbag?
Tony Blair and Boris Johnson... Sounds like a yes to be.
Bet yesterday on Dominic Raab on Smarkets as next PM thinking he might be interim PM. Smarkets have made clear on their rules though that interim PM would not count (despite the claim no such thing exists).
However Raab has come in to 6.6-6.8 so I've laid off my stake and made a 420% return on my stake in 24 hours. Not bad. However if that is because others are thinking Raab will be interim, or because they're matching Betfair (where the rules indicate interim may pay out unlike Smarkets) then this could be a very good lay.
I don't see why Raab would be layable at 6.8 otherwise. Cashing out or laying Raab on Smarkets could be good value. Laying him on Smarkets and backing him on Betfair might even be potentially profitable.
Clarification 1 Feb 2022 11:00 The question of whether an individual would count as an interim or caretaker will, if possible, be resolved by the official government page linked to above e.g. if somebody takes over the responsibilities of a PM who has resigned and left the government, that person will count as the next PM if they are listed as such unless the listing describes them as temporary, interim or similar.
That's unambiguous, I think. There is absolutely no chance at all of the official government page describing the replacement as temporary or interim.
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 40m I know that guy & I'm telling you -he doesn't think it's over, he's thinking 'there's a war, weird shit happens in a war, play for time play for time, I can still get out of this, I got a mandate, members love me, get to September...'
Boris's flaws were obvious and visible from well before he became PM. There was zero reason to believe he would change when he got the top job. So everyone who supported him for the leadership "because Brexit" is partially culpable for the mess we are in today.
Especially as he was partially responsible for the mess that is Brexit back in 2016, and for it becoming a mess when he became PM.
They needed him at that point to win. They figured they could take action if they needed to.
They were right, they just took too long (winning so big gave him a lot of cover)
Bet yesterday on Dominic Raab on Smarkets as next PM thinking he might be interim PM. Smarkets have made clear on their rules though that interim PM would not count (despite the claim no such thing exists).
However Raab has come in to 6.6-6.8 so I've laid off my stake and made a 420% return on my stake in 24 hours. Not bad. However if that is because others are thinking Raab will be interim, or because they're matching Betfair (where the rules indicate interim may pay out unlike Smarkets) then this could be a very good lay.
I don't see why Raab would be layable at 6.8 otherwise. Cashing out or laying Raab on Smarkets could be good value. Laying him on Smarkets and backing him on Betfair might even be potentially profitable.
How do they define 'interim PM' ?
Market Rules This market relates to the person to occupy the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on a permanent basis after Boris Johnson. Interim or caretaker prime ministers will not count towards the settlement of this market.
Clarification 1 Feb 2022 11:00 The question of whether an individual would count as an interim or caretaker will, if possible, be resolved by the official government page linked to above e.g. if somebody takes over the responsibilities of a PM who has resigned and left the government, that person will count as the next PM if they are listed as such unless the listing describes them as temporary, interim or similar.
Thanks for the kind words on the previous topic everyone!
In the end it turns out I have a minor heart condition which causes an irregular heartbeat so from today no more caffeine, no more HIIT and I need to figure out a better diet. Glad to have had the wake-up call before anything more serious happened.
Happily no, I have a premature ectopic heartbeat which is caused by a secondary area of heartbeat triggering. It's not very serious but last night made me realise I'm not just here for me, I've got a wife and daughter as well and I want to see my daughter grow up. Sacrificing coffee seems like a small price to pay for that.
Bet yesterday on Dominic Raab on Smarkets as next PM thinking he might be interim PM. Smarkets have made clear on their rules though that interim PM would not count (despite the claim no such thing exists).
However Raab has come in to 6.6-6.8 so I've laid off my stake and made a 420% return on my stake in 24 hours. Not bad. However if that is because others are thinking Raab will be interim, or because they're matching Betfair (where the rules indicate interim may pay out unlike Smarkets) then this could be a very good lay.
I don't see why Raab would be layable at 6.8 otherwise. Cashing out or laying Raab on Smarkets could be good value. Laying him on Smarkets and backing him on Betfair might even be potentially profitable.
Clarification 1 Feb 2022 11:00 The question of whether an individual would count as an interim or caretaker will, if possible, be resolved by the official government page linked to above e.g. if somebody takes over the responsibilities of a PM who has resigned and left the government, that person will count as the next PM if they are listed as such unless the listing describes them as temporary, interim or similar.
That's unambiguous, I think. There is absolutely no chance at all of the official government page describing the replacement as temporary or interim.
The Betfair market is in real trouble if they do. Betfair has made no such caveats within their rules.
As has been said by others, Wallace will be the favourite... unless and until there is a real competition. And they have to persuade people of their merits
And there SHOULD be a competition. We don't want a coronation. This is the next Prime Minister
Wallace is lacklustre, he will struggle in a debate.
The precedent? Gordon Brown. Realised he was a barrier and voluntarily resigned as party leader. But expected he would continue as PM. As that quickly became not just untenable but laughable he had to make another statement that he was going. Before it went dark.
That's not a valid precedent because when Brown left it was clear who would take over.
Do you really image the theatre of someone going to the palace to be asked to form a caretaker government?
The Deputy Prime Minister. Or if he recuses himself because he wants the job permanently, then we are back to the men in grey suits making a recommendation to the monarch. As they always used to do.
I'm still waiting for an example of when what "they always used to do" happened.
I must say, I think fears of him "clinging on" are overblown. Once he's resigned as Tory leader, that starts a leadership election in which he can't stand - and as soon as that produces a winner, that winner will be the person deemed to be able to command the confidence of the House.
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 40m I know that guy & I'm telling you -he doesn't think it's over, he's thinking 'there's a war, weird shit happens in a war, play for time play for time, I can still get out of this, I got a mandate, members love me, get to September...'
If MPs leave him in situ there'll be CARNAGE
I wonder if he might 'claim' to resign as Tory leader 'in september' rather than resign today.
Bet yesterday on Dominic Raab on Smarkets as next PM thinking he might be interim PM. Smarkets have made clear on their rules though that interim PM would not count (despite the claim no such thing exists).
However Raab has come in to 6.6-6.8 so I've laid off my stake and made a 420% return on my stake in 24 hours. Not bad. However if that is because others are thinking Raab will be interim, or because they're matching Betfair (where the rules indicate interim may pay out unlike Smarkets) then this could be a very good lay.
I don't see why Raab would be layable at 6.8 otherwise. Cashing out or laying Raab on Smarkets could be good value. Laying him on Smarkets and backing him on Betfair might even be potentially profitable.
Clarification 1 Feb 2022 11:00 The question of whether an individual would count as an interim or caretaker will, if possible, be resolved by the official government page linked to above e.g. if somebody takes over the responsibilities of a PM who has resigned and left the government, that person will count as the next PM if they are listed as such unless the listing describes them as temporary, interim or similar.
That's unambiguous, I think. There is absolutely no chance at all of the official government page describing the replacement as temporary or interim.
Never say no chance.
Either way I'm glad to be cashed out of the market, even more glad to have done so with 420% of my stake!
I must say, I think fears of him "clinging on" are overblown. Once he's resigned as Tory leader, that starts a leadership election in which he can't stand - and as soon as that produces a winner, that winner will be the person deemed to be able to command the confidence of the House.
I can't help but think he has missed the boat now.
If he had done this a couple of days ago, or even a couple of weeks ago it would have meant something. Now it looks pointless politicking.
Opposite. He was right to leave them to it while it was obvious his leadership was imploding. Now it can be sold as "we can't even trust the Tories to apply the coup de grace so we must step up"
I'm astonished that many Conservatives think that.
It has never been true that changing PMs between elections means you have to hold a new one, and I don't see it is in their interests. The same old things will be said, people will reverse position from when it happened when they were the opposition, but it will pass.
Bet yesterday on Dominic Raab on Smarkets as next PM thinking he might be interim PM. Smarkets have made clear on their rules though that interim PM would not count (despite the claim no such thing exists).
However Raab has come in to 6.6-6.8 so I've laid off my stake and made a 420% return on my stake in 24 hours. Not bad. However if that is because others are thinking Raab will be interim, or because they're matching Betfair (where the rules indicate interim may pay out unlike Smarkets) then this could be a very good lay.
I don't see why Raab would be layable at 6.8 otherwise. Cashing out or laying Raab on Smarkets could be good value. Laying him on Smarkets and backing him on Betfair might even be potentially profitable.
How do they define 'interim PM' ?
A Prime Minister who isn’t leader of the Conservative Party.
They could only pay out on an individual who is BOTH Conservative Party Leader AND Prime Minister.
As has been said by others, Wallace will be the favourite... unless and until there is a real competition. And they have to persuade people of their merits
And there SHOULD be a competition. We don't want a coronation. This is the next Prime Minister
Wallace is lacklustre, he will struggle in a debate.
Yes. see the principle enunciated above: He has no chance of growing into the role. He is exactly as boring as he looks.
Bet yesterday on Dominic Raab on Smarkets as next PM thinking he might be interim PM. Smarkets have made clear on their rules though that interim PM would not count (despite the claim no such thing exists).
However Raab has come in to 6.6-6.8 so I've laid off my stake and made a 420% return on my stake in 24 hours. Not bad. However if that is because others are thinking Raab will be interim, or because they're matching Betfair (where the rules indicate interim may pay out unlike Smarkets) then this could be a very good lay.
I don't see why Raab would be layable at 6.8 otherwise. Cashing out or laying Raab on Smarkets could be good value. Laying him on Smarkets and backing him on Betfair might even be potentially profitable.
Clarification 1 Feb 2022 11:00 The question of whether an individual would count as an interim or caretaker will, if possible, be resolved by the official government page linked to above e.g. if somebody takes over the responsibilities of a PM who has resigned and left the government, that person will count as the next PM if they are listed as such unless the listing describes them as temporary, interim or similar.
That's unambiguous, I think. There is absolutely no chance at all of the official government page describing the replacement as temporary or interim.
Never say no chance.
Either way I'm glad to be cashed out of the market, even more glad to have done so with 420% of my stake!
One point on betting generally, if a market has to be voided - and this won't be - then you'd end up with £0.00 from it whether or not you're up or down on all runners (Greened up). Happened at the Gorton by-election
Truss can't get a flight for another 12 hours reporting ITV.
Since her plane is already there (G-GBNI) it may be that the crew need rest hours after flying there. Good luck getting a commercial flight out of DPS - it’s booked out as demand is currently exceeding supply.
Ha, so she’s on the government plane but it can’t leave! They’d have single-crewed it, thinking they had rest time. It landed in Bali 6 hours ago.
Good afternoon everyone. Just back from hospital after a minor procedure on my ankle. Has anything interesting happened this morning; I couldn't get onto the Internet on my phone in the hospital. Or is the world still the same as it ever was!
The precedent? Gordon Brown. Realised he was a barrier and voluntarily resigned as party leader. But expected he would continue as PM. As that quickly became not just untenable but laughable he had to make another statement that he was going. Before it went dark.
That's not a valid precedent because when Brown left it was clear who would take over.
Do you really image the theatre of someone going to the palace to be asked to form a caretaker government?
The Deputy Prime Minister. Or if he recuses himself because he wants the job permanently, then we are back to the men in grey suits making a recommendation to the monarch. As they always used to do.
I'm still waiting for an example of when what "they always used to do" happened.
I enjoy teasing, but though it could have actually damaged the local Tories changes at that election, I like the HYUFD believes in using all his votes even if there are not enough Tories to vote for.
As has been said by others, Wallace will be the favourite... unless and until there is a real competition. And they have to persuade people of their merits
And there SHOULD be a competition. We don't want a coronation. This is the next Prime Minister
Wallace is lacklustre, he will struggle in a debate.
Wallace is serious, competent and hardworking and dull ie the anti Boris, that is what the Tories need now.
The next general election is probably lost anyway but he might save some Tory seats
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 40m I know that guy & I'm telling you -he doesn't think it's over, he's thinking 'there's a war, weird shit happens in a war, play for time play for time, I can still get out of this, I got a mandate, members love me, get to September...'
If MPs leave him in situ there'll be CARNAGE
I wonder if he might 'claim' to resign as Tory leader 'in september' rather than resign today.
That wouldn't start a leadership election until September, AIUI.
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 40m I know that guy & I'm telling you -he doesn't think it's over, he's thinking 'there's a war, weird shit happens in a war, play for time play for time, I can still get out of this, I got a mandate, members love me, get to September...'
If members think Liz Truss is the answer.. god Help us all
I will laugh hysterically if having pushed so hard to get rid of Boris left liberal PBers now end up with Steve Baker, Priti Patel, Liz Truss or Suella Braverman as PM once it gets to the Tory membership.
Boris might end up the moderate PM of this Tory government!!
This is pathetic, even for your good self.
Tory MPs have forced him out. Nobody else. Not me or @CorrectHorseBattery and @Scott_xP . Your MPs in your party and nobody else.
And why have Tory MPs forced him out. Because what Boris Johnson has done is fundamentally wrong. *Morally* wrong. Procedurally wrong.
That you - even now - deny this wrongdoing speaks volumes about your lack of understanding of basic principles like right and wrong. I think you described comments like this as "abuse" yesterday. Not abuse - sorrow. As like any Christian -as opposed to the faux hypocrite ones - I will rejoice when you finally repent and recognise reality.
HYUFD doesn't understand the concept of morality. Time and time again any question of right and wrong bounces off him and he reflects it because with talking about what's legal or possible. He doesn't understand ethics, he only knows about the exercise of force.
My morality and ethics are not your left liberal morality and ethics and never will be
Morality is not a left/right thing. Or are you saying that lying through your teeth is acceptable to people from the right. Those on the right here thankfully disagree with you as can be seen by their posts.
I really would like to know does Boris' constant lying not disturb you at all?
Bet yesterday on Dominic Raab on Smarkets as next PM thinking he might be interim PM. Smarkets have made clear on their rules though that interim PM would not count (despite the claim no such thing exists).
However Raab has come in to 6.6-6.8 so I've laid off my stake and made a 420% return on my stake in 24 hours. Not bad. However if that is because others are thinking Raab will be interim, or because they're matching Betfair (where the rules indicate interim may pay out unlike Smarkets) then this could be a very good lay.
I don't see why Raab would be layable at 6.8 otherwise. Cashing out or laying Raab on Smarkets could be good value. Laying him on Smarkets and backing him on Betfair might even be potentially profitable.
Clarification 1 Feb 2022 11:00 The question of whether an individual would count as an interim or caretaker will, if possible, be resolved by the official government page linked to above e.g. if somebody takes over the responsibilities of a PM who has resigned and left the government, that person will count as the next PM if they are listed as such unless the listing describes them as temporary, interim or similar.
That's unambiguous, I think. There is absolutely no chance at all of the official government page describing the replacement as temporary or interim.
Never say no chance.
Either way I'm glad to be cashed out of the market, even more glad to have done so with 420% of my stake!
One point on betting generally, if a market has to be voided - and this won't be - then you'd end up with £0.00 from it whether or not you're up or down on all runners (Greened up). Happened at the Gorton by-election
What happens if you're all greened up, cash out your account, then a while later the market gets voided and as a result you end up in debt to them?
Good afternoon everyone. Just back from hospital after a minor procedure on my ankle. Has anything interesting happened this morning; I couldn't get onto the Internet on my phone in the hospital. Or is the world still the same as it ever was!
Nothing's changed. Pretty boring day today. Don't bother turning on the TV unless you are interested in 'Homes in the sun'.
Bet yesterday on Dominic Raab on Smarkets as next PM thinking he might be interim PM. Smarkets have made clear on their rules though that interim PM would not count (despite the claim no such thing exists).
However Raab has come in to 6.6-6.8 so I've laid off my stake and made a 420% return on my stake in 24 hours. Not bad. However if that is because others are thinking Raab will be interim, or because they're matching Betfair (where the rules indicate interim may pay out unlike Smarkets) then this could be a very good lay.
I don't see why Raab would be layable at 6.8 otherwise. Cashing out or laying Raab on Smarkets could be good value. Laying him on Smarkets and backing him on Betfair might even be potentially profitable.
How do they define 'interim PM' ?
A Prime Minister who isn’t leader of the Conservative Party.
They could only pay out on an individual who is BOTH Conservative Party Leader AND Prime Minister.
Nonsense. That's simply not how they've defined the rules. If a customer service rep came out with that they'd create a false market mind.
If members think Liz Truss is the answer.. god Help us all
I will laugh hysterically if having pushed so hard to get rid of Boris left liberal PBers now end up with Steve Baker, Priti Patel, Liz Truss or Suella Braverman as PM once it gets to the Tory membership.
Boris might end up the moderate PM of this Tory government!!
Right wing, and EU Sceptic Conservatives wanted him gone.
It's not about policy. It's about his being an amoral, sociopathic snake.
Even if he was, as El Capitano says he was also a relatively Liberal, One Nation amoral, sociopathic snake apart from Brexit.
Once he goes the Tories will now likely move even further to the tax cutting, small state, anti Woke, anti lockdown right in the next few years while still keeping Johnson's hard Brexit approach
So what? The red wall do not want tax cutting and a small state. They want levelling up.
Yes but the Red Wall voted for Boris and to get Brexit done not the Tory Party, now Brexit has got done and Boris is not even Tory leader
Sorry, but as I have said before, you lose credibility with your statements that are presented as facts. This is complete cobblers, and Mike has presented at least two headers with strong evidence that the strongest motivation for people in those seats at that election was stopping Corbyn. You are like a "speak your weight" machine that keeps repeating political slogans.
As for your other statement that Wallace will win the membership vote, that may be the balance of probability, but it is not fact. Try applying a little nuance, or perhaps start your sentences with IMO. You are not fecking Nostradamus.
In 2017 the redwall seats voted for Corbyn.
The redwall seats only voted Conservative in 2019 for Boris and to get Brexit done.
Now neither no longer apply they will likely go back to Labour again on the whole
Oh dear, how many times do I have to explain this to you. You really don't understand nuance. It is like trying to explain something to a flat earther, but I will try, in very simple terms.
In 2017 many people assumed TMay would get a landslide. They could hold there nose and vote Labour. Then Labour got a lot closer to power than anyone thought possible.
By 2019 less politically motivated people realised that Corbyn was a serious threat, both politically and also that he was as thick as a plank. Also a lot of the so-called red wall seats have been trending Tory for quite some time.
The real world is more subtle than simplistic political slogans. A decent Tory leader will most likely hold most of those seats at the next GE. The plebs (as you no doubt see them) do not necessarily need a clownish Etonian to get them to vote Tory
BBC Boris Johnson set to make statement at 12:30 Boris Johnson is expected to make a statement outside Downing Street at 12.30 BST confirming his resignation as Conservative leader.
As has been said by others, Wallace will be the favourite... unless and until there is a real competition. And they have to persuade people of their merits
And there SHOULD be a competition. We don't want a coronation. This is the next Prime Minister
Wallace is lacklustre, he will struggle in a debate.
Yes. see the principle enunciated above: He has no chance of growing into the role. He is exactly as boring as he looks.
He is so obviously IDS 2.0
I can't believe the Tories are so dumb they will nominate him. He will soon have everyone yearning for Boris, which is exactly what they don't want. Plus he nullifies the advantage for them that is the Boringness of Starmer
Bet yesterday on Dominic Raab on Smarkets as next PM thinking he might be interim PM. Smarkets have made clear on their rules though that interim PM would not count (despite the claim no such thing exists).
However Raab has come in to 6.6-6.8 so I've laid off my stake and made a 420% return on my stake in 24 hours. Not bad. However if that is because others are thinking Raab will be interim, or because they're matching Betfair (where the rules indicate interim may pay out unlike Smarkets) then this could be a very good lay.
I don't see why Raab would be layable at 6.8 otherwise. Cashing out or laying Raab on Smarkets could be good value. Laying him on Smarkets and backing him on Betfair might even be potentially profitable.
Clarification 1 Feb 2022 11:00 The question of whether an individual would count as an interim or caretaker will, if possible, be resolved by the official government page linked to above e.g. if somebody takes over the responsibilities of a PM who has resigned and left the government, that person will count as the next PM if they are listed as such unless the listing describes them as temporary, interim or similar.
That's unambiguous, I think. There is absolutely no chance at all of the official government page describing the replacement as temporary or interim.
That’s a lot of power being invested in the government website admin guy.
I despise Boris Johnson but I’m going to buy his memoirs because that’s what I do with ex PMs.
I might have to report Leon to the rozzers for larceny. .
I will not be buying them. Not because I think Boris is a tosser, but because I have Mandleson's, Blair's, and Boris's Churchill (a present) on my bookshelves and can't be motivated to pick up any of them to read.
A bit like I dislike biopic films. Who cares what Johnny Cash did or didn't do.
He shot a man in Reno and watched him die! I care!
Filling the cabinet actually works with resignation and a caretaker stepping in. Not realistic for a caretaker to make mass appointments as it sets a direction etc. This way, fill roles and everyone tends ship whilst leadership sorted If he resigns!
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 40m I know that guy & I'm telling you -he doesn't think it's over, he's thinking 'there's a war, weird shit happens in a war, play for time play for time, I can still get out of this, I got a mandate, members love me, get to September...'
If MPs leave him in situ there'll be CARNAGE
Could he try and stand in the leadership contest?
Even if he could, a candidate needs 18 nominations to stand and Brady might notice that the 18 names are just Dorries and Rees-Mogg nine times each.
Bet yesterday on Dominic Raab on Smarkets as next PM thinking he might be interim PM. Smarkets have made clear on their rules though that interim PM would not count (despite the claim no such thing exists).
However Raab has come in to 6.6-6.8 so I've laid off my stake and made a 420% return on my stake in 24 hours. Not bad. However if that is because others are thinking Raab will be interim, or because they're matching Betfair (where the rules indicate interim may pay out unlike Smarkets) then this could be a very good lay.
I don't see why Raab would be layable at 6.8 otherwise. Cashing out or laying Raab on Smarkets could be good value. Laying him on Smarkets and backing him on Betfair might even be potentially profitable.
How do they define 'interim PM' ?
A Prime Minister who isn’t leader of the Conservative Party.
They could only pay out on an individual who is BOTH Conservative Party Leader AND Prime Minister.
Thanks for the kind words on the previous topic everyone!
In the end it turns out I have a minor heart condition which causes an irregular heartbeat so from today no more caffeine, no more HIIT and I need to figure out a better diet. Glad to have had the wake-up call before anything more serious happened.
@MaxPB I missed this earlier. Best wishes and look after yourself.
I can't help but think he has missed the boat now.
If he had done this a couple of days ago, or even a couple of weeks ago it would have meant something. Now it looks pointless politicking.
No. It gives Tory MPs, should they wish, the chance to remove him as PM today or tomorrow rather than in September, by which time he will have engineered some way of clinging on longer. This guy would escalate the war with Putin if he thought he could buy another six months because there is a crisis.
The precedent? Gordon Brown. Realised he was a barrier and voluntarily resigned as party leader. But expected he would continue as PM. As that quickly became not just untenable but laughable he had to make another statement that he was going. Before it went dark.
That's not a valid precedent because when Brown left it was clear who would take over.
Do you really image the theatre of someone going to the palace to be asked to form a caretaker government?
The Deputy Prime Minister. Or if he recuses himself because he wants the job permanently, then we are back to the men in grey suits making a recommendation to the monarch. As they always used to do.
I'm still waiting for an example of when what "they always used to do" happened.
Home as your starter for 10
He wasn't a caretaker.
There is no such thing as a caretaker Prime Minister.
It would be rather exciting if a complete unknown came through the pack and won. Let's do it. Have a proper race like the Grand National. They should literally make them run an assault course. Sunak will win in the crawl-under-the-netting thing, he'll just stroll under
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 40m I know that guy & I'm telling you -he doesn't think it's over, he's thinking 'there's a war, weird shit happens in a war, play for time play for time, I can still get out of this, I got a mandate, members love me, get to September...'
If MPs leave him in situ there'll be CARNAGE
Could he try and stand in the leadership contest?
No. It's explicitly excluded by Schedule 2 of the party constitution.
The precedent? Gordon Brown. Realised he was a barrier and voluntarily resigned as party leader. But expected he would continue as PM. As that quickly became not just untenable but laughable he had to make another statement that he was going. Before it went dark.
That's not a valid precedent because when Brown left it was clear who would take over.
Do you really image the theatre of someone going to the palace to be asked to form a caretaker government?
The Deputy Prime Minister. Or if he recuses himself because he wants the job permanently, then we are back to the men in grey suits making a recommendation to the monarch. As they always used to do.
I'm still waiting for an example of when what "they always used to do" happened.
Home as your starter for 10
He wasn't a caretaker.
There is no such thing as a caretaker Prime Minister.
There is only no such thing, until such a thing is done.
Unwritten constitution. If they say we have a caretaker Prime Minister, then we have one.
As has been said by others, Wallace will be the favourite... unless and until there is a real competition. And they have to persuade people of their merits
And there SHOULD be a competition. We don't want a coronation. This is the next Prime Minister
Wallace is lacklustre, he will struggle in a debate.
Yes. see the principle enunciated above: He has no chance of growing into the role. He is exactly as boring as he looks.
He is so obviously IDS 2.0
I can't believe the Tories are so dumb they will nominate him. He will soon have everyone yearning for Boris, which is exactly what they don't want. Plus he nullifies the advantage for them that is the Boringness of Starmer
Simplistic poppycock. You are just unhappy because you are a closet Bozo apologist. You like having a clown for a leader. The country would like someone who has cred at home and abroad. Wallace has this. Johnson never did. he was a joke. Any genuine patriot would see that.
As has been said by others, Wallace will be the favourite... unless and until there is a real competition. And they have to persuade people of their merits
And there SHOULD be a competition. We don't want a coronation. This is the next Prime Minister
Wallace is lacklustre, he will struggle in a debate.
The Tory Party desperately needs a contest. The Red Wall stuff is only one issue they need to resolve.
The precedent? Gordon Brown. Realised he was a barrier and voluntarily resigned as party leader. But expected he would continue as PM. As that quickly became not just untenable but laughable he had to make another statement that he was going. Before it went dark.
That's not a valid precedent because when Brown left it was clear who would take over.
Do you really image the theatre of someone going to the palace to be asked to form a caretaker government?
The Deputy Prime Minister. Or if he recuses himself because he wants the job permanently, then we are back to the men in grey suits making a recommendation to the monarch. As they always used to do.
I'm still waiting for an example of when what "they always used to do" happened.
Home as your starter for 10
He wasn't a caretaker.
There is no such thing as a caretaker Prime Minister.
That's precisely my point. There is no precedent for what you are suggesting "always" used to happen.
Incidentally, the 1922 Committee should've altered the rules already so they could have a snap vote held if the fool tries to wriggle out of resignation and cling on for months hoping to renege (yet again) upon a promise.
Germany’s largest real estate group Vonovia wants to lower the heating temperature of the gas central heating at night to reduce gas consumption. The company announced on Thursday that the power would be reduced to a room temperature of 17 degrees between 11 p.m. and 6 a.m. the heating temperature should be changed as part of the routine maintenance of the heating systems before the start of the heating season.
It would be rather exciting if a complete unknown came through the pack and won. Let's do it. Have a proper race like the Grand National. They should literally make them run an assault course. Sunak will win in the crawl-under-the-netting thing, he'll just stroll under
We could restart the Krypton Factor and do that properly.
The precedent? Gordon Brown. Realised he was a barrier and voluntarily resigned as party leader. But expected he would continue as PM. As that quickly became not just untenable but laughable he had to make another statement that he was going. Before it went dark.
That's not a valid precedent because when Brown left it was clear who would take over.
Do you really image the theatre of someone going to the palace to be asked to form a caretaker government?
The Deputy Prime Minister. Or if he recuses himself because he wants the job permanently, then we are back to the men in grey suits making a recommendation to the monarch. As they always used to do.
I'm still waiting for an example of when what "they always used to do" happened.
Home as your starter for 10
He wasn't a caretaker.
There is no such thing as a caretaker Prime Minister.
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 40m I know that guy & I'm telling you -he doesn't think it's over, he's thinking 'there's a war, weird shit happens in a war, play for time play for time, I can still get out of this, I got a mandate, members love me, get to September...'
If MPs leave him in situ there'll be CARNAGE
Could he try and stand in the leadership contest?
Interesting point. He hasn't lost a Party VONC after all. Once he resigns the leadership he's eligible AFAICS.
For any Americans new to this, yes it’s a centuries-old parliamentary custom to have the Benny Hill theme playing at all times during political interviews
And yet its never been the protocol. And a reminder that just as Johnson does not have a personal mandate from 2019, so a new PM does not require a personal mandate to govern. Those calling for it now did not do so when Blair was replaced by Brown.
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 40m I know that guy & I'm telling you -he doesn't think it's over, he's thinking 'there's a war, weird shit happens in a war, play for time play for time, I can still get out of this, I got a mandate, members love me, get to September...'
If MPs leave him in situ there'll be CARNAGE
Could he try and stand in the leadership contest?
Interesting point. He hasn't lost a Party VONC after all. Once he resigns the leadership he's eligible AFAICS.
CBA to verify but Major did that and I thought they changed the rules so its now not possible
As has been said by others, Wallace will be the favourite... unless and until there is a real competition. And they have to persuade people of their merits
And there SHOULD be a competition. We don't want a coronation. This is the next Prime Minister
Wallace is lacklustre, he will struggle in a debate.
Yes. see the principle enunciated above: He has no chance of growing into the role. He is exactly as boring as he looks.
He is so obviously IDS 2.0
I can't believe the Tories are so dumb they will nominate him. He will soon have everyone yearning for Boris, which is exactly what they don't want. Plus he nullifies the advantage for them that is the Boringness of Starmer
Simplistic poppycock. You are just unhappy because you are a closet Bozo apologist. You like having a clown for a leader. The country would like someone who has cred at home and abroad. Wallace has this. Johnson never did. he was a joke. Any genuine patriot would see that.
lol
Ben Wallace has cred abroad? I doubt there are three people beyond the UK who know who he is. In fact I doubt there are three people IN the UK who know who he is, probably his wife sometimes forgets his name
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306 · 40m I know that guy & I'm telling you -he doesn't think it's over, he's thinking 'there's a war, weird shit happens in a war, play for time play for time, I can still get out of this, I got a mandate, members love me, get to September...'
If MPs leave him in situ there'll be CARNAGE
Could he try and stand in the leadership contest?
Interesting point. He hasn't lost a Party VONC after all. Once he resigns the leadership he's eligible AFAICS.
For any Americans new to this, yes it’s a centuries-old parliamentary custom to have the Benny Hill theme playing at all times during political interviews
YouGov has polled Con members and done several head to heads - and Wallace wins a head to head against all other leading candidates.
Has he said yet whether he wants it?
R4 this morning friend was quoted as saying he’s mainly interested in his current job and after that NATO Secretary General. He may well be a solid Defence Secretary but not a great PM.
Good afternoon everyone. Just back from hospital after a minor procedure on my ankle. Has anything interesting happened this morning; I couldn't get onto the Internet on my phone in the hospital. Or is the world still the same as it ever was!
Nothing's changed. Pretty boring day today. Don't bother turning on the TV unless you are interested in 'Homes in the sun'.
Thought not, from the lack of interest on PB! Seriously I'm delighted to see the end of Johnson; I think he's been the worst PM's I've known, in 70 years of Parliament watching.
Comments
The redwall seats only voted Conservative in 2019 for Boris and to get Brexit done.
Now neither no longer apply they will likely go back to Labour again on the whole
We don’t know how long any leadership campaign will last and so if not a snap decision there is plenty of time for candidates to lay out their ideas and programmes which will open the eyes of the membership (and MPs). For example we can’t be 100% sure what Sunak would do as PM as whilst CotE he had a relatively narrow remit - if he puts his ideas into a wider programme then it might massively change minds.
We also don’t know what Wallace’s plans would be and his ideas might not stack up or be that attractive to the wider electorate which could serve as a hurdle.
There is also the likelihood that some will stand where the press have juicy damaging info which has been held back until “ worth using” which could derail candidates and change the balance.
Latest politics updates: https://trib.al/dwvcRFT https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1545000534276456454/video/1
Zahawi's constituency...
I care!
VONC now.
This market, where possible, will be settled according to the UK government website (https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister).
Clarification 1 Feb 2022 11:00 The question of whether an individual would count as an interim or caretaker will, if possible, be resolved by the official government page linked to above e.g. if somebody takes over the responsibilities of a PM who has resigned and left the government, that person will count as the next PM if they are listed as such unless the listing describes them as temporary, interim or similar.
That's unambiguous, I think. There is absolutely no chance at all of the official government page describing the replacement as temporary or interim.
@Dominic2306
·
40m
I know that guy & I'm telling you -he doesn't think it's over, he's thinking 'there's a war, weird shit happens in a war, play for time play for time, I can still get out of this, I got a mandate, members love me, get to September...'
If MPs leave him in situ there'll be CARNAGE
They were right, they just took too long (winning so big gave him a lot of cover)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtcZ4Q71Fz8
Less than five hours later, and he's in Johnson's (interim? caretaker?) Cabinet. https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1544998769611214849
This market relates to the person to occupy the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on a permanent basis after Boris Johnson. Interim or caretaker prime ministers will not count towards the settlement of this market.
This market, where possible, will be settled according to the UK government website (https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister).
Clarification 1 Feb 2022 11:00 The question of whether an individual would count as an interim or caretaker will, if possible, be resolved by the official government page linked to above e.g. if somebody takes over the responsibilities of a PM who has resigned and left the government, that person will count as the next PM if they are listed as such unless the listing describes them as temporary, interim or similar.
If he had done this a couple of days ago, or even a couple of weeks ago it would have meant something. Now it looks pointless politicking.
And there SHOULD be a competition. We don't want a coronation. This is the next Prime Minister
Wallace is lacklustre, he will struggle in a debate.
Either way I'm glad to be cashed out of the market, even more glad to have done so with 420% of my stake!
If BoZo is still acting PM tonight they have to do it
Now it can be sold as "we can't even trust the Tories to apply the coup de grace so we must step up"
I think Starmer's getting it right
May be wise to nail everyone's colours to the mast in time for the next episode. Which there will surely be.
Though more likely, bovine and gurning.
It has never been true that changing PMs between elections means you have to hold a new one, and I don't see it is in their interests. The same old things will be said, people will reverse position from when it happened when they were the opposition, but it will pass.
They could only pay out on an individual who is BOTH Conservative Party Leader AND Prime Minister.
Told Downing Street currently texting MPs who haven’t resigned to stand behind PM outside Number 10 during his statement.
hahahaha good luck with that!!!!
The next general election is probably lost anyway but he might save some Tory seats
Guido Fawkes
@GuidoFawkes
Told Downing Street currently texting MPs who haven’t resigned to stand behind PM outside Number 10 during his statement.
I really would like to know does Boris' constant lying not disturb you at all?
.@politicshome exclusive:
NRG leader Jake Berry is seriously mulling a bid to succeed Boris Johnson
He has been urged to do so by Tory MPs in the North and is already working on a "new deal for Britain"
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/northern-tory-leader-jake-berry-considering-bid-to-succeed-johnson
In 2017 many people assumed TMay would get a landslide. They could hold there nose and vote Labour. Then Labour got a lot closer to power than anyone thought possible.
By 2019 less politically motivated people realised that Corbyn was a serious threat, both politically and also that he was as thick as a plank. Also a lot of the so-called red wall seats have been trending Tory for quite some time.
The real world is more subtle than simplistic political slogans. A decent Tory leader will most likely hold most of those seats at the next GE. The plebs (as you no doubt see them) do not necessarily need a clownish Etonian to get them to vote Tory
Boris Johnson set to make statement at 12:30
Boris Johnson is expected to make a statement outside Downing Street at 12.30 BST confirming his resignation as Conservative leader.
I can't believe the Tories are so dumb they will nominate him. He will soon have everyone yearning for Boris, which is exactly what they don't want. Plus he nullifies the advantage for them that is the Boringness of Starmer
That's hardcore.
This way, fill roles and everyone tends ship whilst leadership sorted
If he resigns!
See Cummings tweet.
her mumair traffic control....Unwritten constitution. If they say we have a caretaker Prime Minister, then we have one.
Bumper jumper sales in Germany this autumn.
He hasn't lost a Party VONC after all. Once he resigns the leadership he's eligible AFAICS.
https://twitter.com/jamestitcomb/status/1544992091838758913
Ben Wallace has cred abroad? I doubt there are three people beyond the UK who know who he is. In fact I doubt there are three people IN the UK who know who he is, probably his wife sometimes forgets his name
At least it’s better than that tw@ shouting “Stop Brexit”
Seriously I'm delighted to see the end of Johnson; I think he's been the worst PM's I've known, in 70 years of Parliament watching.