Quite a good resignation speech; no Trumpian tendencies, no constitutional crisis. But Boris has always been fine with speeches, a few good turns of phrase, a dose of boosterism.
I would like to discuss now, the outcomes of the next election, not as a Labour fanboy but as somebody interested in betting.
I note the YouGov polling this morning which says all leadership candidates bar Wallace, have the public scoring as doing worse than good. A heavy caveat is that many are unknown.
I would support Wallace as PM, he seems a decent guy and has done well in Ukraine. I could not vote for this iteration of the Tory Party whilst people like Nadine are still around but I would have hope for its future with him at the helm. He scores well with the leadership, he surely must be a good contender.
Other than that Penny Morduant, who I confess I know little about, would also seem to be popular with the Tory Party. Perhaps others can speak more.
The next election then, will not be about personalities but instead possibly about policies. The difficulty for any Tory now is that without Johnson they will probably lose a large number of voters anyway who only voted for Johnson (albeit they dwindled). This new PM will have 13 years of Government to defend, a CoL crisis and rising bills and a possibly incoming recession.
I think my central estimate of a Hung Parliament remains fair - but a Labour majority and indeed Tory majority, is also not out of the question. I do not think we will see a large majority on either side.
I think there's a good chance he can stay on until the leadership election is concluded now. That was a fairly straight resignation speech, and he has a Cabinet back in place now.
Attention will turn to the contest to replace him, and that will take the heat out of the demands that he should immediately step aside. I don't think any of the leadership contenders will want to see an interim PM, and nor will they all give up their chance of the top job to produce a coronation.
Can't say I'm happy about this, but seems to be where it's going.
Starring: Hattie Jacques (in reverse drag) as Boris Johnson Sid James as Sir Keir Starmer Kenneth Williams as Jacob Rees-Mogg Barbara Windsor as Nadine Dorries Bernard Bresslaw as Dominic Raab
and anyone else anyone can be bothered to think of
As has been said by others, Wallace will be the favourite... unless and until there is a real competition. And they have to persuade people of their merits
And there SHOULD be a competition. We don't want a coronation. This is the next Prime Minister
Wallace is lacklustre, he will struggle in a debate.
Yes. see the principle enunciated above: He has no chance of growing into the role. He is exactly as boring as he looks.
He is so obviously IDS 2.0
I can't believe the Tories are so dumb they will nominate him. He will soon have everyone yearning for Boris, which is exactly what they don't want. Plus he nullifies the advantage for them that is the Boringness of Starmer
Simplistic poppycock. You are just unhappy because you are a closet Bozo apologist. You like having a clown for a leader. The country would like someone who has cred at home and abroad. Wallace has this. Johnson never did. he was a joke. Any genuine patriot would see that.
lol
Ben Wallace has cred abroad? I doubt there are three people beyond the UK who know who he is. In fact I doubt there are three people IN the UK who know who he is, probably his wife sometimes forgets his name
Wallace hasn't a prayer. Truss is the only game in town.
Don't know whether it will matter, but I'm fairly certain there's a majority in Parliament who are unhappy with that. Lots of Tory MPs have been saying it's not acceptable.
What usually happens is that the old PM stays on until the new leader is chosen. I think, therefore, that that remains the most likely thing to happen again. Anger among Tory MPs will probably reside as they focus on the leadership election. I’d be happy to see him out today, but I think it unlikely.
Bet yesterday on Dominic Raab on Smarkets as next PM thinking he might be interim PM. Smarkets have made clear on their rules though that interim PM would not count (despite the claim no such thing exists).
However Raab has come in to 6.6-6.8 so I've laid off my stake and made a 420% return on my stake in 24 hours. Not bad. However if that is because others are thinking Raab will be interim, or because they're matching Betfair (where the rules indicate interim may pay out unlike Smarkets) then this could be a very good lay.
I don't see why Raab would be layable at 6.8 otherwise. Cashing out or laying Raab on Smarkets could be good value. Laying him on Smarkets and backing him on Betfair might even be potentially profitable.
Clarification 1 Feb 2022 11:00 The question of whether an individual would count as an interim or caretaker will, if possible, be resolved by the official government page linked to above e.g. if somebody takes over the responsibilities of a PM who has resigned and left the government, that person will count as the next PM if they are listed as such unless the listing describes them as temporary, interim or similar.
That's unambiguous, I think. There is absolutely no chance at all of the official government page describing the replacement as temporary or interim.
That’s a lot of power being invested in the government website admin guy.
Actually, does anyone know who is the CISO of the relevant department? That’s really worth flagging to them, that potentially millions of pounds of bets hang on what they might publish.
Off topic, but @Sandpit, given our conversation last week, you may be interested to know that a colleague of mine is moving to Dubai - when I asked him what the main push/pull factors were, the number one thing in his list was schools.
I have friends in Dubai with kids our age (12 and 14). They said schooling (while expensive) was good when the kids were young, but is not great at the secondary level - lots of teacher and student turnover at most places.
Timetable announced next week, wants to be leader until election completed.
Both too slow by far.
If the conservatives mps have any sense they will arrange a coronation and new PM in two weeks
Too many people want it. They'd need to agree a caretaker like May, to formally be leader unopposed, and hope she keeps word to stand down for a replacement.
To be fair, there's not a lot of depth for Welsh Tory MPs. Stephen Crabb, David Jones and Alun Cairns have all already done the job, Simon Hart just stepped down, David Davies tweeted that he wouldn't take the job if offered and all the other Welsh Tories are 2019 intake. Swindon's at least in the same ITV region.
Comments
Most probably unfortunately we are heading for up to a decade in opposition
It was self-pitying waffle devoid even of joie de vivre.
New Thread
https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1545009832205467651
@Heathener might as well send the £20 to @Leon now.
(Also, without a time horizon, the bet is ridiculous. Eventually 5,000 sales will be reached.)
I note the YouGov polling this morning which says all leadership candidates bar Wallace, have the public scoring as doing worse than good. A heavy caveat is that many are unknown.
I would support Wallace as PM, he seems a decent guy and has done well in Ukraine. I could not vote for this iteration of the Tory Party whilst people like Nadine are still around but I would have hope for its future with him at the helm. He scores well with the leadership, he surely must be a good contender.
Other than that Penny Morduant, who I confess I know little about, would also seem to be popular with the Tory Party. Perhaps others can speak more.
The next election then, will not be about personalities but instead possibly about policies. The difficulty for any Tory now is that without Johnson they will probably lose a large number of voters anyway who only voted for Johnson (albeit they dwindled). This new PM will have 13 years of Government to defend, a CoL crisis and rising bills and a possibly incoming recession.
I think my central estimate of a Hung Parliament remains fair - but a Labour majority and indeed Tory majority, is also not out of the question. I do not think we will see a large majority on either side.
It will be a repeat of 2015, or 2010, I think.
NEW THREAD
Attention will turn to the contest to replace him, and that will take the heat out of the demands that he should immediately step aside. I don't think any of the leadership contenders will want to see an interim PM, and nor will they all give up their chance of the top job to produce a coronation.
Can't say I'm happy about this, but seems to be where it's going.
Starring:
Hattie Jacques (in reverse drag) as Boris Johnson
Sid James as Sir Keir Starmer
Kenneth Williams as Jacob Rees-Mogg
Barbara Windsor as Nadine Dorries
Bernard Bresslaw as Dominic Raab
and anyone else anyone can be bothered to think of
Wallace 51% Truss 33%
https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-third-liz-truss/
Truss has more chance than Hunt or Sunak but Wallace still likely beats her