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The cabinet are revolting as they prepare to get their Johnson out. – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533

    Difficult to be sure, but I think Boris might just survive this. No one will know who Javid is. As for Rishi, thanks to Boris's dark arts combined with some of his own in ineptitude he'll just be remembered as the billionaire tax dodger who did something underhand on a petrol-station forecourt. Boris will probably push on.

    I refer to my Othello quote.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    Leon said:

    I can’t believe they haven’t elbowed Boris off the dancefloor. FFS

    Surely one more Cabinet Mjnister would have done it. Idiots!

    Down to Zahawi now.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480

    Impressive degree of cowardice from all but two in the Cabinet (possibly excepting Wallace).

    I'm sure that Wallace has a soft spot for the tamborine too.

    Far from good people though.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    I can’t believe they haven’t elbowed Boris off the dancefloor. FFS

    Surely one more Cabinet Mjnister would have done it. Idiots!

    Old Etonians just ain't what they used to be?

    BTW, how was lunch. That place looks very atmospheric. How about the grub?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    Leon said:

    I can’t believe they haven’t elbowed Boris off the dancefloor. FFS

    Surely one more Cabinet Mjnister would have done it. Idiots!

    The Sunak and Javid resignations were 9 minutes apart, so it had to be coordinated, but they didn't think about convincing a third Cabinet Minister to go with them?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,480
    There comes a point in every party's existence (it happens several times in truth) when the point of its existence comes into question.

    Is it in business to be in office, to be the Government, to steer the course of the country or is it about a series of core principles from which the policies and programmes are derived?

    Sometimes, the two are compatible, sometimes, as now, they become mutually exclusive. In other words, the Government in office has to implement measures which run counter to its core principles - one example is a party dedicated to lowering taxes having to raise taxes under difficult economic circumstances.

    All the main parties have been there in the past couple of decades - now, it is the Conservative Party's turn to be in Government what it swore in Opposition it would never be - the slightly more high tax and spending of the two social democratic parties.

    "To thine own self be true" the saying goes but if the price of ideological purity and virtue is Opposition, that becomes the price.

    Do the Conservatives rally want to stay in office (power is long gone) and see their ideological compromise deepen further or is it time to move into Opposition and rebuild (or, more accurately, pace a certain tv character, re-generate)?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543
    edited July 2022

    I think you've got that wrong. Under the US Constitution the person chosen to act as President acts as such until the President recovers (impossible if they're dead) or until the next election.

    The new Speaker wouldn't become higher up the list since there'd be no vacancy for acting President with the role already filled by Kirkman. The law doesn't provide for the acting President to be bumped out of the role by someone else.

    In reality when the old President is dead "acting as President" is taken to mean being inaugurated as President. The Veep originally only acted as President too, but that was taken to mean inaugurated the first time it happened.
    Tell the authors of this report that:

    https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-continuity-of-the-presidency-the-second-report-of-the-continuity-of-government-commission/

    Because it's not the constitution that governs the process of succession, it's the Presidential Succession Act 1947 under the provision of the constitution that Congress can determine who shall act as president.

    Also see this from the House judiciary committee:

    http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/judiciary/hju96287.000/hju96287_0.htm#0
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,564
    Leon said:

    I can’t believe they haven’t elbowed Boris off the dancefloor. FFS

    Surely one more Cabinet Mjnister would have done it. Idiots!

    If there's another tonight, it might be saved for just before the 10pm news.
  • Difficult to be sure, but I think Boris might just survive this. No one will know who Javid is. As for Rishi, thanks to Boris's dark arts combined with some of his own in ineptitude he'll just be remembered as the billionaire tax dodger who did something underhand on a petrol-station forecourt. Boris will probably push on.

    He'll resign before midday tomorrow. He can't do PMQs, he just can't.

    Be interesting to hear Sunak's or Javid's resignation speeches in the extremely unlikely event he tries to brazen this out.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    A vonc now has no downside for Labour.

    Entirely up to Labour. Will look ridiculous if done too soon. You bang it in if he survives the week/1922 changes tie them to him then
    Disagree, the now is the time to do it. Challenge the Tory rebels. If they back Boris they’re screwed. If they vote against Boris they’re screwed.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited July 2022
    The “funny” thing is that Rishi is essentially fiscally very right wing. Rishi would love to deliver aggressive tax cuts, but he had the problem of actually being in office and needing to do things like avoid a run on the pound.

    Not that I want to defend him too much.
    He actually wasn’t very good.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Having read Sunak's and Rishi's resignation letters, I find them (to use a Malcolm-like terminology) supremely ar*e-licking. They read like letters of total support except there is a line buried in them that says, effectively, "Oh BTW, I resign"

    Do none of them have the nerve to write a letter like Dear PM, I cannot serve under you because you are rubbish at this job and are destroying politics and the country"?

    They are politicians not pantomime dames
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,354
    Leon said:

    I can’t believe they haven’t elbowed Boris off the dancefloor. FFS

    Surely one more Cabinet Mjnister would have done it. Idiots!

    Of course they're idiots.

    Non-idiots mostly weren't invited to serve in Johnson's Cabinet. Any non-idiots who were invited, refused, because they weren't idiots.

    It was always going to go like this.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 174
    Ladbrooks suspends betting on Bojo's exit date
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    He'll resign before midday tomorrow. He can't do PMQs, he just can't.

    Be interesting to hear Sunak's or Javid's resignation speeches in the extremely unlikely event he tries to brazen this out.
    Of course he’s going to brazen it out, unless Brady stops him.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,814
    System said:

    The cabinet are revolting as they prepare to get their Johnson out. – politicalbetting.com

    Some in No 10 braced for further ministerial resignations. Tory allies of the PM feeling inevitability, this could be the end. Many not as bullish as they have been at previous crisis moments.

    Read the full story here

    Oof! I get some dinner and this happens!

    So, Javid and Sunak. Wonder if this means Sunak still wants it. I'm not claiming great prescience, but I did say at the weekend I thought there was an opportunity for a non-front runner Minister to resign and catapult themselves back into the race.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Having read Sunak's and Rishi's resignation letters, I find them (to use a Malcolm-like terminology) supremely ar*e-licking. They read like letters of total support except there is a line buried in them that says, effectively, "Oh BTW, I resign"

    Do none of them have the nerve to write a letter like Dear PM, I cannot serve under you because you are rubbish at this job and are destroying politics and the country"?

    Bev, re: yesterdays great hat debate, what are your views re: the snood?
  • On elements of fiscal policy, but not on social issues.
    So the bit that mattered then?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    HYUFD said:

    Conservative MPs get elected to implement Conservative ideology, otherwise there is no point to being in power at all if you are just going to be a Blue Labour government. May as well let Starmer get in and return to true Tory principles. As far as most Tory members are concerned, Boris' main problem is he has not been Tory enough!
    This lot are implementing UKIP ideology. They are no more Conservatives than you are.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,693

    Difficult to be sure, but I think Boris might just survive this. No one will know who Javid is. As for Rishi, thanks to Boris's dark arts combined with some of his own in ineptitude he'll just be remembered as the billionaire tax dodger who did something underhand on a petrol-station forecourt. Boris will probably push on.

    & of people who know who a politician is, from https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/fame/politicians-political-figures/all

    Johnson 99% (top politician)
    Blair 98% (highest non-Tory)
    Corbyn 97% (highest non-PM)
    Hancock 97% (highest Con non-PM)
    Patel 94% (highest Cabinet member)
    Starmer 92%
    Sunak 92%
    Javid 89%
    Truss 66%
    Davey 49%
    Wallace 37%
    Mordaunt 35%
    Tugendhat 19%
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,511

    He'll resign before midday tomorrow. He can't do PMQs, he just can't.

    Be interesting to hear Sunak's or Javid's resignation speeches in the extremely unlikely event he tries to brazen this out.
    Any normal person yes. Boris? But I agree, how does he do PMQ?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    edited July 2022

    Bev, re: yesterdays great hat debate, what are your views re: the snood?
    Are they the bald aliens in Dr Who that carry a glowing ball everywhere they go?

    I presume you mean the hairnet thing? Awful. Ugly. Dreadful.

    I have seen some Irish Tweed hats and I am very tempted to get one
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,213

    Is Boris going to bother appointing replacements? I would have thought Barclay to CoE and Hancock or Dorries to Health, if he does.

    I suspect Brady’s currently whetting his blade though, and I expect Boris to have announced his resignation before the end of next week.

    He will stay on until the new leader is appointed, if only to beat May’s tenure, so you can scratch Raab off your list.

    But doesn't BJ needs Mad Nad to stay where she is for the Culture War stuff?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,814

    Michael Gove is key, I think. Maybe Boris can survive if he can persuade him to become CoE, but Gove hasn't been conspicuous with his support recently.

    Wallace is right to stay as Her Majesty's defence minister, given the Ukraine situation. We really can't afford any discontinuity there.

    I didn't realise saying 'Yes' and writing blank cheques was a skill peculiar to Wallace.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    The “funny” thing is that Rishi is essentially fiscally very right wing. Rishi would love to deliver aggressive tax cuts, but he had the problem of actually being in office and needing to do things like avoid a run on the pound.

    Not that I want to defend him too much.
    He actually wasn’t very good.

    He's a fiscal conservative.

    If he did go for a platform like that he'd accompany it with spending cuts.
  • On elements of fiscal policy, but not on social issues.
    So the bit that mattered then?

    Of course he’s going to brazen it out, unless Brady stops him.

    I doubt it. It only takes, what, 32 changing their minds? In a secret ballot?

    We are up to six already. And that's with needing to resign to do it.

    It's over.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    edited July 2022
    stodge said:

    There comes a point in every party's existence (it happens several times in truth) when the point of its existence comes into question.

    Is it in business to be in office, to be the Government, to steer the course of the country or is it about a series of core principles from which the policies and programmes are derived?

    Sometimes, the two are compatible, sometimes, as now, they become mutually exclusive. In other words, the Government in office has to implement measures which run counter to its core principles - one example is a party dedicated to lowering taxes having to raise taxes under difficult economic circumstances.

    All the main parties have been there in the past couple of decades - now, it is the Conservative Party's turn to be in Government what it swore in Opposition it would never be - the slightly more high tax and spending of the two social democratic parties.You

    "To thine own self be true" the saying goes but if the price of ideological purity and virtue is Opposition, that becomes the price.

    Do the Conservatives rally want to stay in office (power is long gone) and see their ideological compromise deepen further or is it time to move into Opposition and rebuild (or, more accurately, pace a certain tv character, re-generate)?

    You could make a good case for the point of the existence of Labour also being in question.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,693
    kjh said:

    Any normal person yes. Boris? But I agree, how does he do PMQ?
    By having an urgent meeting in Kiev and leaving it to someone else?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    kjh said:

    Any normal person yes. Boris? But I agree, how does he do PMQ?
    By talking about record numbers of people in employment, 40 new hospitals, getting the “big calls” right, and suggesting Keir is a Corbynist bore.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543

    By having an urgent meeting in Kiev and leaving it to someone else?
    A chicken Kiev?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    & of people who know who a politician is, from https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/fame/politicians-political-figures/all

    Johnson 99% (top politician)
    Blair 98% (highest non-Tory)
    Corbyn 97% (highest non-PM)
    Hancock 97% (highest Con non-PM)
    Patel 94% (highest Cabinet member)
    Starmer 92%
    Sunak 92%
    Javid 89%
    Truss 66%
    Davey 49%
    Wallace 37%
    Mordaunt 35%
    Tugendhat 19%
    Been trying to make this point re Wallace and Mordaunt.
    Barely known.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    By talking about record numbers of people in employment, 40 new hospitals, getting the “big calls” right, and suggesting Keir is a Corbynist bore.
    Having just heard SKS on Sky News he maybe has a point on the last one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    dixiedean said:

    Been trying to make this point re Wallace and Mordaunt.
    Barely known.
    Tory members however know who they are and they will be the ones choosing, not the public
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,107
    edited July 2022
    Bryant pointing out that both Sunak and Javid have the right to make ministerial resignation statements in the house tomorrow.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    So the bit that mattered then? I doubt it. It only takes, what, 32 changing their minds? In a secret ballot?

    We are up to six already. And that's with needing to resign to do it.

    It's over.
    Maybe but PMQs continues.
    Someone will front. Probably Johnson.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Michael Gove is key, I think. Maybe Boris can survive if he can persuade him to become CoE, but Gove hasn't been conspicuous with his support recently.

    Wallace is right to stay as Her Majesty's defence minister, given the Ukraine situation. We really can't afford any discontinuity there.

    Gove will be Chancellor, Health Sec'y, Deputy PM, and will also take on the other portfolios of the Resigners
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,155
    Mogg has serious childhood issues. He can’t bear the thought that Sunak is wealthier and rose to higher political office but went to Winchester. Mogg is scarred by the fact that when he was at Eton it was mocked for being the home for rich thickos with the odd diamond in the rough and is aware that it confers absolutely no intelligence cachet for his generation.

    His pathetic critique of Nick Boles was another example.

    He would be praising Oswald Mosley up to the eyeballs if his chip from his schooldays about Etonian/Wykehamist relations wasn’t an ever-present ghost in his life.

    I’m imagining he got bowled a fast one in the goolies in the Winchester/Eton 8th eleven cricket for physical specimens made out of straw and never let it go.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,567
    George Eustice is also staying, according to @BBCVickiYoung
    - the only senior cabinet minister who has not yet confirmed their position is Nadhim Zahawi.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1544393753082953728?cxt=HHwWgIC83fL75O4qAAAA

    They rallied quickly, it seems. Disappointing.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    kjh said:

    Any normal person yes. Boris? But I agree, how does he do PMQ?
    Same way he's always done it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533

    By talking about record numbers of people in employment, 40 new hospitals, getting the “big calls” right, and suggesting Keir is a Corbynist bore.
    Starmer should stand up and say:

    "I have nothing to add. I cannot intrude on such personal grief"

    And then sit down.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    They are politicians not pantomime dames
    They are spineless
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,354
    kjh said:

    Any normal person yes. Boris? But I agree, how does he do PMQ?
    At this point, can he avoid it? Maggie did the swansong PMQs and confidence debate after announcing her departure.

    But unless BoJo announces his resignation and then goes off in a huff without an elected successor, he's on the hook for tomorrow's questions.

    Couldn't happen to a nicer chap.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    OnboardG1 said:

    My Dad and I simultaneously pointed that out to each other today.
    Ah, but you didn't say it here and get all those likes did you?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,662
    dixiedean said:

    Been trying to make this point re Wallace and Mordaunt.
    Barely known.
    And Tugendhat? :lol:
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited July 2022
    kle4 said:

    George Eustice is also staying, according to @BBCVickiYoung
    - the only senior cabinet minister who has not yet confirmed their position is Nadhim Zahawi.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1544393753082953728?cxt=HHwWgIC83fL75O4qAAAA

    They rallied quickly, it seems. Disappointing.

    I am surprised.

    With the sole exception of Wallace, it seems they have all personally calculated they will not get jobs under any successor.

    That’s incredibly damning.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,302
    kle4 said:

    George Eustice is also staying, according to @BBCVickiYoung
    - the only senior cabinet minister who has not yet confirmed their position is Nadhim Zahawi.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1544393753082953728?cxt=HHwWgIC83fL75O4qAAAA

    They rallied quickly, it seems. Disappointing.

    I am holding out hope that Zahawi is waiting until just before 10:00 to plunge the knife in. But I suspect I will be disappointed.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,662

    They are politicians not pantomime dames
    "Pincher's behind you!"
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,244
    Some conspiracy theories doing the rounds on Twitter suggesting that Zahawi is a friend of Jonathan Gullis, who has of course already gone.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    ydoethur said:

    Tell the authors of this report that:

    https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-continuity-of-the-presidency-the-second-report-of-the-continuity-of-government-commission/

    Because it's not the constitution that governs the process of succession, it's the Presidential Succession Act 1947 under the provision of the constitution that Congress can determine who shall act as president.

    Also see this from the House judiciary committee:

    http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/judiciary/hju96287.000/hju96287_0.htm#0

    Note the precise language of 25th Amendment, in particular Section 4.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In case of the removal,Vice President shall become President.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480

    I am holding out hope that Zahawi is waiting until just before 10:00 to plunge the knife in. But I suspect I will be disappointed.

    Patel is the only person that could make the splash bigger.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,725

    I'm calling it.....Jacob Smug is a T*t of the first water.

    Captain hindsight. :wink:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543
    kle4 said:

    The good news for the rebels if they fail is that as we've just learned Boris has a terrible memory, so may well forget what they did.

    He sounded like a less convincing version of Nicola Sturgeon.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    They are spineless
    No, they are resigning the way all politicians from all parties tend to. And quitting your job in politics is rarely spineless. Belated, yes. Spineless, no.
    Its politics, not Real Housewives of Westminster
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,107
    Omnium said:

    Patel is the only person that could make the splash bigger.
    Splash?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    Omnium said:

    Patel is the only person that could make the splash bigger.
    You didn't see Mordaunt on reality TV then?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    There are 19 Cabinet Ministers left, and a further 8 “attending” Cabinet.

    All of them - save Wallace maybe, and for the moment Zahawi - have calculated they won’t get a job post-Boris.

    It’s simply incredible how much shit is sitting in this u-bend.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,241
    dixiedean said:

    You didn't see Mordaunt on reality TV then?
    I think she would belly flop, but that could be quite fun to watch.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533

    There are 19 Cabinet Ministers left, and a further 8 “attending” Cabinet.

    All of them - save Wallace maybe, and for the moment Zahawi - have calculated they won’t get a job post-Boris.

    It’s simply incredible how much shit is sitting in this u-bend.

    Coffey is a surprise. She is actually capable as far as I can see.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,362
    I guess I'm going to have to call JRM "Jacob Rees-Worm" once more. Because he looks a little like a monocled worm in the Mister Men books.

    And because he is a slimy worm.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543


    Note the precise language of 25th Amendment, in particular Section 4.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In case of the removal,Vice President shall become President.
    With respect, that is irrelevant. The key part is Article II, section 6:

    the Congress may by Law provide for the Case of Removal, Death, Resignation or Inability, both of the President and Vice President, declaring what Officer shall then act as President, and such Officer shall act accordingly, until the Disability be removed, or a President shall be elected.

    Which they have under the PSA 1947. Which allows bumping.

    Possibly it shouldn't under the terms of the Constitution, but it does.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,725

    Mogg wants Johnson to do a Walpole. 20 years.

    These people are on drugs.

    Or just a very obscure putdown ?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Walpole_(D41)
    Fate:
    Damaged by mine on 6 January 1945
    Sold for scrapping on 8 February 1945


    Or a reference to Horace Walpole’s career as a writer ?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Remember golden days of yore, when PBers fulminated at the indecency of referring to the PM as BoJo?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Tricky one for Wallace given what is on his plate. I see the argument he should stay put but the logic of that is that he stays put as part of a functioning government. I don't think that that exists so how can he do his job? Where does the money come from without a Chancellor, the policy without a functioning cabinet, the leadership with Boris in office?

    I think he should go now in the hope that the whole government is replaced by something bettter that can allow the UK to do what it can to help Ukraine in an effective way rather than by photo op.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited July 2022

    Coffey is a surprise. She is actually capable as far as I can see.
    Perhaps lacking in confidence.
    I really struggle to understand the psychology. Only a few are actually HYUFD-style stark raving mad.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480
    Tories most seats on BF 1.91/1.92, not moved at all. It's almost like everyone expected Boris to be toast.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,785
    Oliver Dowden must be really pissed off that his principled resignation, less than a fortnight ago, has been consigned to the dustbin of history so quickly.
    "Who's he?", the masses asked.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Remember golden days of yore, when PBers fulminated at the indecency of referring to the PM as BoJo?

    I remember the golden days when a goodly proportion of PB Tories thought Boris was their saviour.

    They are pretending that nobody remembers.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    Just heard the PM's interview with Chris Mason.
    The guy is an absolute charlatan.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2022
    Re cabinet not quitting. They may simply assume the game is up and they are best placed to fight for the leadership from cabinet. Patel, Raab, Truss probably all see themselves as potential 'cabinet agreed caretaker'
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    I guess I'm going to have to call JRM "Jacob Rees-Worm" once more. Because he looks a little like a monocled worm in the Mister Men books.

    And because he is a slimy worm.

    I am grateful that the worms in my garden don't seem to read PB. Otherwise all hell would be breaking loose.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,945

    Is it conceivable that the only way to get shut will be Tories supporting VONC against government? No automatic GE will follow. Queen will call leader most likely to form a government so possibilities include:
    1. No leadership campaign instead Tory MPs will have to agree on one candidate to avoid prolonged vote.
    2. Temporary PM while leadership contest takes place (May?)

    Tories have to be vary careful they don't precipitate an election by accident. Of course it is also possible that Starmer may go soon (before Boris??).

    Entertaining!

    The main problem is getting Starmer (or the LOTO if its not Starmer) to play ball.
    Only the LOTO can call a VONC and it be guaranteed to be debated and voted on.

    So.... let's just make something up and say Johnson refuses to resign and replaces the cabinet members who have resigned. Unless the 1922 committee can change the rules, the only final way is a Parliamentary vote.
    So the 'leader' of the Con rebels (and I'll make something ELSE up and just say 'Hunt') approaches Starmer.

    Hunt wants a VONC, which he guarantees he and 100 others will support.
    Starmer wants a VONC.

    So it seems a no brainer. But its what happens afterwards.
    Hunt would want a VONC followed by an alternative Conservative government, led by him, WITHOUT a General Election.
    Starmer would want a VONC followed by a GE.

    Hunt can't get the VONC even called to debate without Starmer. Starmer won't accept tabling a VONC unless it leads to a GE.

    Hunt *might say* he'd agree to a GE, but Starmer has no way of guaranteeing that. Starmer could call the VONC, win it, and then ask for a GE only for Hunt to shaft him over and stop one.

    Starmer, though he DOES have a role in this latest drama, almost certainly won't do anything. He can't get what he wants, and no alternative Conservative would feel happy giving him a GE (except Rory Stewart, who isn't here anymore).
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    DavidL said:

    Tricky one for Wallace given what is on his plate. I see the argument he should stay put but the logic of that is that he stays put as part of a functioning government. I don't think that that exists so how can he do his job? Where does the money come from without a Chancellor, the policy without a functioning cabinet, the leadership with Boris in office?

    I think he should go now in the hope that the whole government is replaced by something bettter that can allow the UK to do what it can to help Ukraine in an effective way rather than by photo op.

    The way to square this circle is to be confident in his Ministers of State and ask them to hold the fort while he resigns to deal with the Prime Minister.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,298

    Oliver Dowden must be really pissed off that his principled resignation, less than a fortnight ago, has been consigned to the dustbin of history so quickly.
    "Who's he?", the masses asked.

    We asked that when he was in office.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    edited July 2022

    Re cabinet not quitting. They may simply assume the game is up and they are best placed to fight for the leadership from cabinet. Patel, Raab, Truss probably all see themselves as potential 'cabinet agreed caretaker'

    Caretaker is about their level.
    Not sure I'd trust them to mop the floors properly, mind.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    kle4 said:

    George Eustice is also staying, according to @BBCVickiYoung
    - the only senior cabinet minister who has not yet confirmed their position is Nadhim Zahawi.

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1544393753082953728?cxt=HHwWgIC83fL75O4qAAAA

    They rallied quickly, it seems. Disappointing.

    George Useless living up to his name again... ;)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    OnboardG1 said:

    Not my favourite Stross books. There’s only so much personal hatred I can deal with. Looking forward to the new Laundry though.
    Quite enjoyed the recent short.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Re cabinet not quitting. They may simply assume the game is up and they are best placed to fight for the leadership from cabinet. Patel, Raab, Truss probably all see themselves as potential 'cabinet agreed caretaker'

    Patel won’t be re-appointed. She is unpopular, and only got the present job for culture-war style shits and giggles.

    Raab is quite dim, and is likely caught in some headlights somewhere. He too will not survive Johnson.

    Truss is a WTF.
    She had her chance and she’s blown it.
    She’ll be another casualty therefore.

    We are going to see quite a lot of the fatberg dislodged, I think.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,354

    Perhaps lacking in confidence.
    I really struggle to understand the psychology. Only a few are actually HYUFD-style stark raving mad.
    One doesn't want to think of her as a "lonely girl from a women's college", but there may be an element of that. But who wants to admit that they've been a stooge?

    Whatever he doesn't understand (and there's a lot), Boris has always understood raw human power and schoolboy cruelty.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    DavidL said:

    I am grateful that the worms in my garden don't seem to read PB. Otherwise all hell would be breaking loose.
    Also the worms in almost every organism's intestine.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,665
    NEW: Boris Johnson has just concluded a meeting of his core team in which he has decided to replace Sunak and Javid -- possibly tonight -- in an attempt to ride out the storm

    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1544402133029617667
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,533
    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    Sounds like plan is to appoint a new Chancellor this evening.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Hes not quitting, hes hiring. Tonight.
    What a mess.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited July 2022

    The way to square this circle is to be confident in his Ministers of State and ask them to hold the fort while he resigns to deal with the Prime Minister.
    They are all in pretty much the same predicament as Wallace though. That would just be passing the problem on.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    The public gave the Tories a 5 year term in 2019, they get no further say on next PM until 2024/25
    Hmm. I see someone actually gave you an Off Topic for that. Not me. Obvs also uncoordinated with the Party.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Is Mike still on a break? TSE still in charge of PB?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,107
    DavidL said:

    I am grateful that the worms in my garden don't seem to read PB. Otherwise all hell would be breaking loose.
    It’s your job to give them some leadership and direction!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    Sounds like plan is to appoint a new Chancellor this evening.

    He must have one before the markets open, surely?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    NEW: Boris Johnson has just concluded a meeting of his core team in which he has decided to replace Sunak and Javid -- possibly tonight -- in an attempt to ride out the storm

    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1544402133029617667

    Ooo wonder if we might get our first lady CotE... Stand by you phone Nadine...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,665

    Is Mike still on a break? TSE still in charge of PB?

    He's busy today, I'm in charge the rest of the evening.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Oliver Dowden must be really pissed off that his principled resignation, less than a fortnight ago, has been consigned to the dustbin of history so quickly.
    "Who's he?", the masses asked.

    He used to run Bomber Command IIRC :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,665
    Reshuffle latest:

    Hearing that Steve Barclay could replace Sajid Javid as health secretary. Source tells me this is likely

    There's also discussions in No 10 about Liz Truss as the new chancellor but nothing firm on that front yet


    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1544400487180603399
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    GIN1138 said:

    Ooo wonder if we might get our first lady CotE... Stand by you phone Nadine...
    Truss is the rumour
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    We asked that when he was in office.
    We really didn't if only because very, very few were aware that he was even in office or what office he held.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,300
    The important thing to remember is Boris is completely and utterly shameless.

    The only way he's going is via losing a new vote of no confidence. The normal rules of politics don't apply to him.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    Whoever takes the Chancellor job is going down in history as such a worm! Sure, you can say forever you were once chancellor. But will it really be worth the shame?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939
    Do we now find out exactly how many people he's promised a promotion to?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,454

    I supported Johnson through Brexit, Covid and Ukraine but starting with Paterson through wallpapergate and partygate to the present debacle he has to go but of course Brexit for you is a trauma but for me is fine but does need work on it to improve it and is why I was surprised and pleased with Starmer's position on it
    Heseltine has just said Brexit is the worst mistake any government has made in 70 years. A catastrophy. When told that Johnson going isn't going to change anything and even Labour now support Brexit he said "we have the Lib Dems"

    Interesting from a Remaining Tory. Perhaps the Future could be Orange.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,786

    I remember the golden days when a goodly proportion of PB Tories thought Boris was their saviour.

    They are pretending that nobody remembers.
    But he was the saviour of the Tory party - and the country. He got Brexit done, by winning a large majority, and if that had not happened the Tories would have descended into terrible internal warfare - as the whole country went on to an absolutely catastrophic 2nd referendum. Just try and imagine how that would have gone, as it was boycotted by millions of Leavers (like me). There you go. What do you do after that? After a botched 2nd vote with half the voters not showing up? That’s the end of British democracy


    So many 2nd voters - such as Keir Starmer - like to pretend this would not have happened. Those Remainers that do now belatedly realise this want us to conveniently forget all about their demands for a 2nd referendum. Utter Wankers

    However, the good that Boris did then is now seriously outweighed by his many flaws and unforced errors. He has to go

This discussion has been closed.