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The cabinet are revolting as they prepare to get their Johnson out. – politicalbetting.com

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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    HYUFD said:

    I'm coming to the belief that the rebels have the 180 magic total, and it won't be further cabinet resignations that do for Boris Johnson but Sir Graham Brady having a chat.

    Boris ain't going to resign, he has the hide of a Rhinoceraus combined with the stubborn temperament of Trump and Corbyn. He is already completing the reshuffle of the Cabinet to replace those lost.

    Brady's chats won't make any difference, he doesn't know that over 50% of Tory MPs would VONC Boris anymore than Boris does and Boris has already survived one VONC
    Yep. Changing the rules of the 1922 is the only way and this will be problematic and arguably unfair.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,718

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Genuinely Johnson will call an election to get rid of people plotting, his only way out. Nailed on IMHO

    You keep harping on about this but Boris loses his seat, there's no way he will call an election.
    It's that or lose PM, it is all about Johnson. GE this year.
    No, he's out either way then. He'll cling on as long as he can by just not resigning.
    Don't agree. I stick with my prediction.
    It's hopecasting, not a prediction. Boris losing his seat will be a humiliation, if he gets deposed tomorrow or in a few months and the Tories still lose in 2024 then he is "vindicated".

    His only tactic is to just hold on and hope for the best that the news narrative moves on quickly.
    No it isn't, it's a genuine prediction in good faith.

    He has nothing to lose, he calls an election and wins and he's still PM or he gets kicked out.

    I stick by it, have a good evening Max
    If he calls an election, he loses. Calling an election is the same as saying he'll resign in 5 weeks time.

    An election at this time will be, in effect, a national vote of confidence in Boris, and that he'll lose.
    It would be an August election. He'll be hammered in the polls (via post, of course).
    No one wants an August election, like no one would really want an election on a Thursday 25th December. It's theoretically possible, but he'd be stupid to try it.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    So the next Tory leader election is Zahawi vs. Javid.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920

    Michelle Donelan is the new secretary of education

    Who?
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,941
    edited July 2022

    Not the most flattering photo on the front page of the i;


    But consistent with my long-held "Boris = Samson; when the hair goes, he goes" theory.

    Only question is will he bring the temple down with him?

    Doesn't he look a bit Supermacish?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    Leon said:

    Zahawi kisses goodbye to his career. Why?

    It’s OK to lie low with a toothache, but to take the main job vacated by the assassins means you are fucked when the assassins finally prevail, which they surely will

    For a few months as COTE? Why??

    Even if the Assassins topple Boris, which is not yet clear, Zahawi, Truss or Wallace are more likely to become PM now than they are
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    TimS said:

    Just back from a fun boozy night on the terrace pavilion - I passed JRM giving a talk to camera, Chris Bryant hanging around, Jess Philips walking past in a daze looking intently at her phone, and that boorish bearded Stoke MP - you know the one who laughs at Boris’s jokes at PMQs - who barged past me to another party. Everyone already talking about the coming leadership election.

    And I see that he’s still not gone. What’s more he’s going full hitler bunker and appointing people to new positions Willy-nilly. Is the man mad?

    As far as we can tell he still has the votes to carry on, why wouldn't he appoint people to new positions?
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,568
    Leon said:

    I see people are saying that Truss has already pledged loyalty to Boris? When and where did she do that? Just checked her Twitter and there's nothing there.

    Yes. She should resign tomorrow at about 11.30am. That could do it
    It's what she dresses up in for her resignation that I'm interested in. I'll be disappointed if it's not Boudicca or Good Queen Bess at Tilbury.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,202
    And the answer is … drum roll .. Nadhim Zahawi … strange move for a smart man. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1544403386652852225
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    Scott_xP said:

    Final thought this evening - Rees-Mogg pushing the line that the PM “continues to command a majority of the House”. I mean, you could maybe just about get away with that if there hadn’t recently been a confidence vote in which on a best-case scenario the payroll voted to keep you

    There’s a lot of Virtua Parly/green screen studio extrapolation in this tweet (with arm-waving), with added thought experiments - but I can’t work out how the PM can claim he commands a majority any longer


    https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1544413837071360002

    In reality, he has (or had) the confidence of about 200 MPs or less than a third of the house.

    It will be even less now.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,016
    DavidL said:

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    1m
    Britain has a new Chancellor ... its Zahawi

    One of our historians will correct me if I am wrong but the shortest time as Chancellor I can think of is that of the Saj: 24 July 2019 – 13 February 2020. So by my reckoning 204 days is the target. I think he has less chance than the England test team has had of late.
    Iain McLeod.
    For different reasons.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,072

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Genuinely scary.

    Public universities in Florida will be required to survey both faculty and students on their political beliefs and viewpoints, with the institutions at risk of losing their funding if the responses are not satisfactory to the state's Republican-led legislature.

    The unprecedented project, which was tucked into a law signed Tuesday by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, is part of a long-running, nationwide right-wing push to promote "intellectual diversity" on campuses — though worries over a lack of details on the survey's privacy protections, and questions over what the results may ultimately be used for, hover over the venture.

    Based on the bill's language, survey responses will not necessarily be anonymous — sparking worries among many professors and other university staff that they may be targeted, held back in their careers or even fired for their beliefs.

    According to the bill's sponsor, state Sen. Ray Rodrigues, faculty will not be promoted or fired based on their responses, but, as The Tampa Bay Times reported Tuesday, the bill itself does not back up those claims.


    https://www.salon.com/2021/06/23/desantis-signs-bill-requiring-florida-students-professors-to-register-political-views-with-state/

    No. Completely justified. The horrendous onethink on American campuses has to be challenged. They are 99% Democrat and 98% Woke, yet the rest of America really is not, and this gulf is bad for any country
    I've got little confidence the situation will improve because of 'government surveys'. Too blunt. A softer approach, linking state funding with commitments to viewpoint diversity and freedom of speech would probably be more effective.
    But it is, at least, a start

    Extirpating Extreme Wokeness from Academe is an urgent need. That’s where CRT came from: the universities
    If only you knew as much about US universities and CRT as you do about AI.
    I think you're so embedded into ground zero of liberal California you fail to recognise CRT for the cancer it is.
    I'm mostly poking @Leon's tail re sentient AI, tbh.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,143
    Boris truly is Corbyn.

    Brother by another mother.

    He needs to be surgically removed by the 1922 - immediately. He is a vivid embarrassment to the country.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,555

    Leon said:

    Zahawi kisses goodbye to his career. Why?

    It’s OK to lie low with a toothache, but to take the main job vacated by the assassins means you are fucked when the assassins finally prevail, which they surely will

    For a few months as COTE? Why??

    Being as bald as a coot, he just stepped into the most senior position he'll ever be able to hold in his chosen field. That's a hell of an achievement, however short-lived.
    So he had no faith that he could’ve been leader. Because he’s bald. So COTE for ten weeks is a triumph, Hmm…..

    I’m not disputing this, I’m considering it, and yes I am sure there is an element of that. Earlier today I was thinking of Dominic Raab, who must kinda be hoping that Boris goes, because then he gets to be PM, if only for 6 weeks, and then he can say to himself Well, i was Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, to his dying day, and that is definitely SOMETHING. Indeed it means - if it happens - that he has gone further than 99.999% of his fellow politicians, and all the people that sneered at him for being short or being “called Raab” when he was a kid can now go and jump in Lake Windermere. Raab wins the Game of Life. Raab was PM








  • Options
    Boris position secured.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    HYUFD said:

    I'm coming to the belief that the rebels have the 180 magic total, and it won't be further cabinet resignations that do for Boris Johnson but Sir Graham Brady having a chat.

    Boris ain't going to resign, he has the hide of a Rhinoceraus combined with the stubborn temperament of Trump and Corbyn. He is already completing the reshuffle of the Cabinet to replace those lost.

    Brady's chats won't make any difference, he doesn't know that over 50% of Tory MPs would VONC Boris anymore than Boris does and Boris has already survived one VONC
    Brady has the letters
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    GIN1138 said:

    Michelle Donelan is the new secretary of education

    Who?
    She was Minister of State for Higher and Further Education.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,941
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    So quick question, PB Tories will still find a way to tell us KS would be worse!

    We will never know. He should get his FPN tomorrow
    Has there ever been a more lackadaisical force than Durham. Seven weeks to check out an early evening curry? They could have reenacted the evening several times over using actors.

    Someone's taking the piss.
    If you worked there, surely you would also drag your feet?

    Announcing anything tomorrow would be a total fucking kaboom.
    You think it's their fifteen minutes and they're holding back for the perfect moment? I wouldn't blame them. Getting yourself into the history books isn't bad for a policeman.

    Might have been even more impressive if a civil servant hadn't just removed a Prime Minister
    Mind, being famous plod this time would not be for murdering someone, or not catching someone murdering, or distributing photos of someone's dead daughter, or getting folk banged up for playing cards. Quite commendable really.
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,791

    I see people are saying that Truss has already pledged loyalty to Boris? When and where did she do that? Just checked her Twitter and there's nothing there.

    It was announced earlier that she "stands behind the PM". That maybe with a stiletto. We can but hope
    Or metaphorically behind him while an oncoming train approaches ...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hpi9kFskZFk
    Nice! I never saw that version. In the British version Francis Urquhart throws her off the building.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited July 2022

    Boris truly is Corbyn.

    Brother by another mother.

    He needs to be surgically removed by the 1922 - immediately. He is a vivid embarrassment to the country.

    In June 2016 26 Labour Shadow Cabinet Ministers resigned. Corbyn brushed it off and pressed on and just reshuffled his Cabinet.

    So far Boris is simply following the same game plan
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,718
    boulay said:

    MaxPB said:

    Surely Liz Truss has to resign if Zahawi is promoted ahead of her. Huge slap in her face if he gets the gig by blackmailing the pig dog.

    It would be beautiful poetic justice - Liz stays “loyal” to hopefully be in position to replace her boss who she is “loyal” to but isn’t loyal to anyone then misses the gig she wants to someone else who will remain “loyal” for the job she wants and he wants.

    Then she loses on all fronts.

    Dog’s dinner. Trussed chicken.
    She could still resign in the morning.

    "Having slept on it overnight, I find that Sunak and Javid were right.... I'm off."

    I agree she can't resign this evening though. She needs cover of a good nights sleep to think it over.
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    Rishi's next job could be in cyber
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,941
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Zahawi kisses goodbye to his career. Why?

    It’s OK to lie low with a toothache, but to take the main job vacated by the assassins means you are fucked when the assassins finally prevail, which they surely will

    For a few months as COTE? Why??

    Being as bald as a coot, he just stepped into the most senior position he'll ever be able to hold in his chosen field. That's a hell of an achievement, however short-lived.
    So he had no faith that he could’ve been leader. Because he’s bald. So COTE for ten weeks is a triumph, Hmm…..

    I’m not disputing this, I’m considering it, and yes I am sure there is an element of that. Earlier today I was thinking of Dominic Raab, who must kinda be hoping that Boris goes, because then he gets to be PM, if only for 6 weeks, and then he can say to himself Well, i was Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, to his dying day, and that is definitely SOMETHING. Indeed it means - if it happens - that he has gone further than 99.999% of his fellow politicians, and all the people that sneered at him for being short or being “called Raab” when he was a kid can now go and jump in Lake Windermere. Raab wins the Game of Life. Raab was PM








    Rather like the suffect consuls of Ancient Rome. Put in for a few days at the end of the consular year just so they had the sticker to put on their chariot, and the go-faster stripe on their toga, or whatever the mark of the consulares was.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    The Bank of England has raised the spectre of a sharp rise in interest rates after deputy governor Sir Jon Cunliffe said that households could withstand borrowing costs as high as 5pc without defaulting on their debts.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/05/banks-ordered-rein-lending/
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    HYUFD said:

    I'm coming to the belief that the rebels have the 180 magic total, and it won't be further cabinet resignations that do for Boris Johnson but Sir Graham Brady having a chat.

    Boris ain't going to resign, he has the hide of a Rhinoceraus combined with the stubborn temperament of Trump and Corbyn. He is already completing the reshuffle of the Cabinet to replace those lost.

    Brady's chats won't make any difference, he doesn't know that over 50% of Tory MPs would VONC Boris anymore than Boris does and Boris has already survived one VONC
    Brady has the letters
    He had the letters last month, Boris still won the vote
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736

    HYUFD said:

    I'm coming to the belief that the rebels have the 180 magic total, and it won't be further cabinet resignations that do for Boris Johnson but Sir Graham Brady having a chat.

    Boris ain't going to resign, he has the hide of a Rhinoceraus combined with the stubborn temperament of Trump and Corbyn. He is already completing the reshuffle of the Cabinet to replace those lost.

    Brady's chats won't make any difference, he doesn't know that over 50% of Tory MPs would VONC Boris anymore than Boris does and Boris has already survived one VONC
    Brady has the letters
    Maybe the rules SHOULD say that a PM is protected for 12 months after winning a VOC UNLESS the number of letters exceeds 50% of CP MPs?

    Trouble is the rules don't say that.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    @Big_G_NorthWales

    Are you still sticking to your bold claim that Labour are having a bad day?
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    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,346

    Rishi's next job could be in cyber

    His handle is DishiRishi1980 on OnlyFans.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    Scott_xP said:

    Final thought this evening - Rees-Mogg pushing the line that the PM “continues to command a majority of the House”. I mean, you could maybe just about get away with that if there hadn’t recently been a confidence vote in which on a best-case scenario the payroll voted to keep you

    There’s a lot of Virtua Parly/green screen studio extrapolation in this tweet (with arm-waving), with added thought experiments - but I can’t work out how the PM can claim he commands a majority any longer


    https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1544413837071360002

    In reality, he has (or had) the confidence of about 200 MPs or less than a third of the house.

    It will be even less now.
    I mean, if Labour brought a confidence vote right now Boris would win it, no?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm coming to the belief that the rebels have the 180 magic total, and it won't be further cabinet resignations that do for Boris Johnson but Sir Graham Brady having a chat.

    Boris ain't going to resign, he has the hide of a Rhinoceraus combined with the stubborn temperament of Trump and Corbyn. He is already completing the reshuffle of the Cabinet to replace those lost.

    Brady's chats won't make any difference, he doesn't know that over 50% of Tory MPs would VONC Boris anymore than Boris does and Boris has already survived one VONC
    Brady has the letters
    He had the letters last month, Boris still won the vote
    Dozens more since then
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,568
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Zahawi kisses goodbye to his career. Why?

    It’s OK to lie low with a toothache, but to take the main job vacated by the assassins means you are fucked when the assassins finally prevail, which they surely will

    For a few months as COTE? Why??

    Being as bald as a coot, he just stepped into the most senior position he'll ever be able to hold in his chosen field. That's a hell of an achievement, however short-lived.
    So he had no faith that he could’ve been leader. Because he’s bald. So COTE for ten weeks is a triumph, Hmm…..

    I’m not disputing this, I’m considering it, and yes I am sure there is an element of that. Earlier today I was thinking of Dominic Raab, who must kinda be hoping that Boris goes, because then he gets to be PM, if only for 6 weeks, and then he can say to himself Well, i was Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, to his dying day, and that is definitely SOMETHING. Indeed it means - if it happens - that he has gone further than 99.999% of his fellow politicians, and all the people that sneered at him for being short or being “called Raab” when he was a kid can now go and jump in Lake Windermere. Raab wins the Game of Life. Raab was PM.
    Exactly. I don't think Cameron 'I'd be rather good at it' had any ambitions beyond getting the top job and 'being it' for a little while. And I've really struggled to get Boris's motivation for his barnacle grip on the job. I've got several theories, but one could just be 'beating Cameron' - which is something I think Boris has always taken pleasure in.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 9,819

    TimS said:

    Just back from a fun boozy night on the terrace pavilion - I passed JRM giving a talk to camera, Chris Bryant hanging around, Jess Philips walking past in a daze looking intently at her phone, and that boorish bearded Stoke MP - you know the one who laughs at Boris’s jokes at PMQs - who barged past me to another party. Everyone already talking about the coming leadership election.

    And I see that he’s still not gone. What’s more he’s going full hitler bunker and appointing people to new positions Willy-nilly. Is the man mad?

    As far as we can tell he still has the votes to carry on, why wouldn't he appoint people to new positions?
    A period of a day or so to consider would be becoming. But even then: JRM to education? That’s simply trolling, not the actions of a serious politician.

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    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Farooq said:

    The American House of Cards was way better then the British one

    Who is manning the banhammer this evening?
    There is no ban hammer. Leon posts racist filth and they just quietly delete it and let him carry on.
    Citation?
    Citation is fuck off you vile piece of excrement
    You are embarrassing yourself. Stop
    What you going to do, call me a T--g? Get in the sea you numpty.
    No, I will calmly suggest that this might not be the best time to return to PB, if you are so volatile
    I'm not sticking around long, don't you worry.
    I am actually a tiny bit worried. You don’t seem happy at all

    So, this is a genuine attempt to BE NICE to you

    I remember we have had good chats in the past, Recall how we share a dislike of horrible loud motorbike exhausts! Stay and be friends with people, if you can; but if all you feel able to do is spit hatred and bile then I suggest that’s not great. For you. Is all
    I don't want you to be nice to me, I want a badger to bite you in the cock.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited July 2022
    As the Boris team rushes to announce these new Cabinet appointments in time for the 10pm news..

    Twitter
    Madeline Grant 🇭🇰🇺🇦@Madz_Grant
    What on earth does Nadhim Zahawi have to gain from this? Weird decision, like grabbing the box of Celebrations when all that's left are a couple of Topic and Bounty and some mournful Milky Way wrappers
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920

    GIN1138 said:

    Michelle Donelan is the new secretary of education

    Who?
    She was Minister of State for Higher and Further Education.
    Was she really? Well I've never heard of her...
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,018
    HYUFD said:

    Can we finally agree that whatever else it does, Eton does not turn out geniuses or superbly educated, mentally versatile people fit to run the country?

    It turned out Rory Stewart, David Cameron, Macmillan, Gladstone and Douglas Hurd and Prince William and Justin Welby as much as Boris and Rees Mogg and Jeremy Thorpe
    2 out of 10 is not bad for Windsor Comprehensive. Macmillan and Gladstone, BTW.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,237
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm coming to the belief that the rebels have the 180 magic total, and it won't be further cabinet resignations that do for Boris Johnson but Sir Graham Brady having a chat.

    Boris ain't going to resign, he has the hide of a Rhinoceraus combined with the stubborn temperament of Trump and Corbyn. He is already completing the reshuffle of the Cabinet to replace those lost.

    Brady's chats won't make any difference, he doesn't know that over 50% of Tory MPs would VONC Boris anymore than Boris does and Boris has already survived one VONC
    Brady has the letters
    He had the letters last month, Boris still won the vote
    Events, dear boy, events
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292

    Boris truly is Corbyn.

    Brother by another mother.

    He needs to be surgically removed by the 1922 - immediately. He is a vivid embarrassment to the country.

    I think thats a tad unfair on Corbyn....
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    eekeek Posts: 25,028

    HYUFD said:

    I'm coming to the belief that the rebels have the 180 magic total, and it won't be further cabinet resignations that do for Boris Johnson but Sir Graham Brady having a chat.

    Boris ain't going to resign, he has the hide of a Rhinoceraus combined with the stubborn temperament of Trump and Corbyn. He is already completing the reshuffle of the Cabinet to replace those lost.

    Brady's chats won't make any difference, he doesn't know that over 50% of Tory MPs would VONC Boris anymore than Boris does and Boris has already survived one VONC
    Brady has the letters
    But no legitimate way of using them until next June....
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Scott_xP said:

    Final thought this evening - Rees-Mogg pushing the line that the PM “continues to command a majority of the House”. I mean, you could maybe just about get away with that if there hadn’t recently been a confidence vote in which on a best-case scenario the payroll voted to keep you

    There’s a lot of Virtua Parly/green screen studio extrapolation in this tweet (with arm-waving), with added thought experiments - but I can’t work out how the PM can claim he commands a majority any longer


    https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1544413837071360002

    In reality, he has (or had) the confidence of about 200 MPs or less than a third of the house.

    It will be even less now.
    I mean, if Labour brought a confidence vote right now Boris would win it, no?
    It must be very tempting to call a VONC, Labour cannot lose.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,437

    Genuinely Johnson will call an election to get rid of people plotting, his only way out. Nailed on IMHO

    That would violate all three Lascelles principles.

    Denying one could be Her Maj's finest hour.
    She'll do whatever her PM tells her to do, just look at her granting the 2019 prorogation.
    Not when the politics are like this.
    Politics were even more polarised than now.

    He's also got a near 80 seat majority, she'll grant a dissolution.
    That's why she won't.

    The current parliament is capable of doing it's job, another leader can easily be found who will command confidence of the Commons and there's an economic crisis.

    HMQ will get cover by the politicians laying out the alternative behind the scenes and liaising with her private secretary.
    That's not the Queen's way. To contradict her Prime Minister would be to go against her entire method of Queenship. Doing exactly as her Prime Minister tells her to do allows her to hide behind the Constitution. Actually making a judgement runs the risk of people deciding her judgement was wrong and that she should be replaced by someone with better judgement.

    The Lascelles principles only work if they deter a PM from contradicting them. The Queen will do everything to avoid being seen as a political actor.
    They are there to protect the country against a rogue PM who's totally unprincipled and is trying to game the constitution.

    That's where we're at right now.
    That's exactly what happened with the prorogation and she failed in her role because she doesn't have the mandate to use her theoretical power.

    It's why we need an elected head of state - the monarchy is too scared to play the role the Constitution leaves to them.
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    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,346

    The Bank of England has raised the spectre of a sharp rise in interest rates after deputy governor Sir Jon Cunliffe said that households could withstand borrowing costs as high as 5pc without defaulting on their debts.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/07/05/banks-ordered-rein-lending/

    I've often felt like a wee bit of a mug for fixing my interest rate when I took out my mortgage (on the basis I didn't think that <1% base rate could last forever). I am now very glad I did. Not so much because I'll spend less overall but because I know my outgoings aren't going to spike at a bad time.
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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,418
    I'm not exactly an avid 'reader' of The Daily Star but an amusing front page for tomorrow:

    https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/daily-star-front-page-2022-07-06/
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,016

    Scott_xP said:

    Final thought this evening - Rees-Mogg pushing the line that the PM “continues to command a majority of the House”. I mean, you could maybe just about get away with that if there hadn’t recently been a confidence vote in which on a best-case scenario the payroll voted to keep you

    There’s a lot of Virtua Parly/green screen studio extrapolation in this tweet (with arm-waving), with added thought experiments - but I can’t work out how the PM can claim he commands a majority any longer


    https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1544413837071360002

    In reality, he has (or had) the confidence of about 200 MPs or less than a third of the house.

    It will be even less now.
    I mean, if Labour brought a confidence vote right now Boris would win it, no?
    It's not in Boris though.
    It's in the government.
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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Sort of feels like tonight is an accidental crisis - Javid and Sunak simultaneously and spontaneously saying enough's enough off their own backs, rather than them signalling the beginning of a coordinated rout - that's turned into a second missed bullet from the Tory leadership gun.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,735
    Hmm. Kamala Harris turning into Dubya.

    U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris said: "Gas prices are high due to gas prices not being low as before. To get back to lower prices we have to acknowledge gas is high which is the opposite of low."
    https://twitter.com/Sing2wong/status/1543938711838138368
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    One minute to ten. Time for Liz to quit?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Zahawi kisses goodbye to his career. Why?

    It’s OK to lie low with a toothache, but to take the main job vacated by the assassins means you are fucked when the assassins finally prevail, which they surely will

    For a few months as COTE? Why??

    Being as bald as a coot, he just stepped into the most senior position he'll ever be able to hold in his chosen field. That's a hell of an achievement, however short-lived.
    So he had no faith that he could’ve been leader. Because he’s bald. So COTE for ten weeks is a triumph, Hmm…..

    I’m not disputing this, I’m considering it, and yes I am sure there is an element of that. Earlier today I was thinking of Dominic Raab, who must kinda be hoping that Boris goes, because then he gets to be PM, if only for 6 weeks, and then he can say to himself Well, i was Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, to his dying day, and that is definitely SOMETHING. Indeed it means - if it happens - that he has gone further than 99.999% of his fellow politicians, and all the people that sneered at him for being short or being “called Raab” when he was a kid can now go and jump in Lake Windermere. Raab wins the Game of Life. Raab was PM.
    Exactly. I don't think Cameron 'I'd be rather good at it' had any ambitions beyond getting the top job and 'being it' for a little while. And I've really struggled to get Boris's motivation for his barnacle grip on the job. I've got several theories, but one could just be 'beating Cameron' - which is something I think Boris has always taken pleasure in.
    I think people underestimate how much of a political animal Johnson is. He'd be lost without it.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,202
    eek said:

    But no legitimate way of using them until next June....

    Or next week
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,555
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Farooq said:

    The American House of Cards was way better then the British one

    Who is manning the banhammer this evening?
    There is no ban hammer. Leon posts racist filth and they just quietly delete it and let him carry on.
    Citation?
    Citation is fuck off you vile piece of excrement
    You are embarrassing yourself. Stop
    What you going to do, call me a T--g? Get in the sea you numpty.
    No, I will calmly suggest that this might not be the best time to return to PB, if you are so volatile
    I'm not sticking around long, don't you worry.
    I am actually a tiny bit worried. You don’t seem happy at all

    So, this is a genuine attempt to BE NICE to you

    I remember we have had good chats in the past, Recall how we share a dislike of horrible loud motorbike exhausts! Stay and be friends with people, if you can; but if all you feel able to do is spit hatred and bile then I suggest that’s not great. For you. Is all
    I don't want you to be nice to me, I want a badger to bite you in the cock.
    I do hope the mods are noting my extraordinary restraint
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,941

    HYUFD said:

    Can we finally agree that whatever else it does, Eton does not turn out geniuses or superbly educated, mentally versatile people fit to run the country?

    It turned out Rory Stewart, David Cameron, Macmillan, Gladstone and Douglas Hurd and Prince William and Justin Welby as much as Boris and Rees Mogg and Jeremy Thorpe
    2 out of 10 is not bad for Windsor Comprehensive. Macmillan and Gladstone, BTW.
    Slough Comp. Windsor is the other side of the river.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,330
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm coming to the belief that the rebels have the 180 magic total, and it won't be further cabinet resignations that do for Boris Johnson but Sir Graham Brady having a chat.

    Boris ain't going to resign, he has the hide of a Rhinoceraus combined with the stubborn temperament of Trump and Corbyn. He is already completing the reshuffle of the Cabinet to replace those lost.

    Brady's chats won't make any difference, he doesn't know that over 50% of Tory MPs would VONC Boris anymore than Boris does and Boris has already survived one VONC
    Brady has the letters
    But no legitimate way of using them until next June....
    Simply not true. The committee can change the rules by vote.
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    fitalass said:

    As the Boris team rushes to announce these new Cabinet appointments in time for the 10pm news..

    Twitter
    Madeline Grant 🇭🇰🇺🇦@Madz_Grant
    What on earth does Nadhim Zahawi have to gain from this? Weird decision, like grabbing the box of Celebrations when all that's left are a couple of Topic and Bounty and some mournful Milky Way wrappers

    Firstly, Bounty is the best one in the box.
    Secondly, Topic? They haven't been in there for 15 years. Any Topics would, by now, be Off Topics.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Farooq said:

    The American House of Cards was way better then the British one

    Who is manning the banhammer this evening?
    There is no ban hammer. Leon posts racist filth and they just quietly delete it and let him carry on.
    Citation?
    Citation is fuck off you vile piece of excrement
    You are embarrassing yourself. Stop
    What you going to do, call me a T--g? Get in the sea you numpty.
    No, I will calmly suggest that this might not be the best time to return to PB, if you are so volatile
    I'm not sticking around long, don't you worry.
    I am actually a tiny bit worried. You don’t seem happy at all

    So, this is a genuine attempt to BE NICE to you

    I remember we have had good chats in the past, Recall how we share a dislike of horrible loud motorbike exhausts! Stay and be friends with people, if you can; but if all you feel able to do is spit hatred and bile then I suggest that’s not great. For you. Is all
    I don't want you to be nice to me, I want a badger to bite you in the cock.
    Does it specifically have to be a badger?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,016
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Just back from a fun boozy night on the terrace pavilion - I passed JRM giving a talk to camera, Chris Bryant hanging around, Jess Philips walking past in a daze looking intently at her phone, and that boorish bearded Stoke MP - you know the one who laughs at Boris’s jokes at PMQs - who barged past me to another party. Everyone already talking about the coming leadership election.

    And I see that he’s still not gone. What’s more he’s going full hitler bunker and appointing people to new positions Willy-nilly. Is the man mad?

    As far as we can tell he still has the votes to carry on, why wouldn't he appoint people to new positions?
    A period of a day or so to consider would be becoming. But even then: JRM to education? That’s simply trolling, not the actions of a serious politician.

    Sorry.
    I was trolling with that suggestion.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm coming to the belief that the rebels have the 180 magic total, and it won't be further cabinet resignations that do for Boris Johnson but Sir Graham Brady having a chat.

    Boris ain't going to resign, he has the hide of a Rhinoceraus combined with the stubborn temperament of Trump and Corbyn. He is already completing the reshuffle of the Cabinet to replace those lost.

    Brady's chats won't make any difference, he doesn't know that over 50% of Tory MPs would VONC Boris anymore than Boris does and Boris has already survived one VONC
    Brady has the letters
    But no legitimate way of using them until next June....
    The 1922 meet tomorrow to arrange the election of the new members including our own Aaron Bell who can change the rules in an instant and a vonc before the end of this month
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,202
    The number of Britons who want Boris Johnson to resign has reached a new high, at 69%.

    The majority of 2019 Conservative voters (54%) also want to see the PM go, the first time this has been higher than the number who want him to stay (33%)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2022/07/05/b572b/1 https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544423365712252928 https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1544425921435901952/photo/1
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    MattW said:

    Hmm. Kamala Harris turning into Dubya.

    U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris said: "Gas prices are high due to gas prices not being low as before. To get back to lower prices we have to acknowledge gas is high which is the opposite of low."
    https://twitter.com/Sing2wong/status/1543938711838138368

    There are things we know we know about gas prices, things we know we don't know about gas prices and things we don't know we don't know about gas prices.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,402
    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    1m
    Britain has a new Chancellor ... its Zahawi

    One of our historians will correct me if I am wrong but the shortest time as Chancellor I can think of is that of the Saj: 24 July 2019 – 13 February 2020. So by my reckoning 204 days is the target. I think he has less chance than the England test team has had of late.
    Iain McLeod.
    For different reasons.
    I forgot about him. So, 30 days (and staying alive for a bonus mark). Just might be more doable.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited July 2022
    MattW said:

    Hmm. Kamala Harris turning into Dubya.

    U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris said: "Gas prices are high due to gas prices not being low as before. To get back to lower prices we have to acknowledge gas is high which is the opposite of low."
    https://twitter.com/Sing2wong/status/1543938711838138368

    Really is Team Dementia and Dunce running the US.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,602

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,791
    I just googled Michael Gove and I cant find any reference to him commenting on today's events. Anyone else seen anything?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,833
    Jonathan said:

    World popcorn prices skyrocketing.

    No need to get salty.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Just back from a fun boozy night on the terrace pavilion - I passed JRM giving a talk to camera, Chris Bryant hanging around, Jess Philips walking past in a daze looking intently at her phone, and that boorish bearded Stoke MP - you know the one who laughs at Boris’s jokes at PMQs - who barged past me to another party. Everyone already talking about the coming leadership election.

    And I see that he’s still not gone. What’s more he’s going full hitler bunker and appointing people to new positions Willy-nilly. Is the man mad?

    As far as we can tell he still has the votes to carry on, why wouldn't he appoint people to new positions?
    A period of a day or so to consider would be becoming. But even then: JRM to education? That’s simply trolling, not the actions of a serious politician.

    JRM to anything wouldn't be the action of a serious politician but Boris previously made him Leader of the House and the voters apparently weren't bothered.
  • Options
    OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,346
    Scott_xP said:

    The number of Britons who want Boris Johnson to resign has reached a new high, at 69%.

    Nice.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,202
    A lot of my contacts telling me Zahawi has messed up by grabbing the Treasury crown at a difficult time. I disagree. Massive hike in name recognition and the chance to win backbench favour with a tax cut. Being chancellor for 5 mins didn't do John Major any harm
    https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1544426297119604736
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,393
    Jonathan said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales

    Are you still sticking to your bold claim that Labour are having a bad day?

    There are many in Labour who want Johnson in post and his removal changes the narrative

  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736

    NEW THREAD

    No! This one was fun. I refuse to be dislodged.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Genuinely scary.

    Public universities in Florida will be required to survey both faculty and students on their political beliefs and viewpoints, with the institutions at risk of losing their funding if the responses are not satisfactory to the state's Republican-led legislature.

    The unprecedented project, which was tucked into a law signed Tuesday by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, is part of a long-running, nationwide right-wing push to promote "intellectual diversity" on campuses — though worries over a lack of details on the survey's privacy protections, and questions over what the results may ultimately be used for, hover over the venture.

    Based on the bill's language, survey responses will not necessarily be anonymous — sparking worries among many professors and other university staff that they may be targeted, held back in their careers or even fired for their beliefs.

    According to the bill's sponsor, state Sen. Ray Rodrigues, faculty will not be promoted or fired based on their responses, but, as The Tampa Bay Times reported Tuesday, the bill itself does not back up those claims.


    https://www.salon.com/2021/06/23/desantis-signs-bill-requiring-florida-students-professors-to-register-political-views-with-state/

    No. Completely justified. The horrendous onethink on American campuses has to be challenged. They are 99% Democrat and 98% Woke, yet the rest of America really is not, and this gulf is bad for any country
    I've got little confidence the situation will improve because of 'government surveys'. Too blunt. A softer approach, linking state funding with commitments to viewpoint diversity and freedom of speech would probably be more effective.
    But it is, at least, a start

    Extirpating Extreme Wokeness from Academe is an urgent need. That’s where CRT came from: the universities
    If only you knew as much about US universities and CRT as you do about AI.
    I think you're so embedded into ground zero of liberal California you fail to recognise CRT for the cancer it is.
    CRT is a bogeyman invented by the Right to dogwhistle racism. The people pushing CRT fears are the people who claim Trump won the election and that COVID vaccines are dangerous.
    CRT is a real thing invented by the Left to practice actual racism.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,819
    Meanwhile in the other big news of the night the ECMWF model gives us over a week of intense heatwave into mid month and a large proportion of its ensemble runs give us record breaking hot temperatures 10-12 days from now.

    Heatwave is going to be the big news next week.
  • Options
    fitalass said:

    As the Boris team rushes to announce these new Cabinet appointments in time for the 10pm news..

    Twitter
    Madeline Grant 🇭🇰🇺🇦@Madz_Grant
    What on earth does Nadhim Zahawi have to gain from this? Weird decision, like grabbing the box of Celebrations when all that's left are a couple of Topic and Bounty and some mournful Milky Way wrappers

    Utterly disagreed.

    The country needs a Chancellor of the Exchequer. If the markets opened tomorrow without a CoE then sterling would collapse and the markets would be in utter turmoil. If called, then its responsible for someone to serve.

    If Boris goes quickly now, he's already there as Chancellor and is widely respected so will not be toxic or damaged by taking on this role. If he doesn't go quickly, he can deliver his own resignation next scandal.
  • Options
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm coming to the belief that the rebels have the 180 magic total, and it won't be further cabinet resignations that do for Boris Johnson but Sir Graham Brady having a chat.

    Boris ain't going to resign, he has the hide of a Rhinoceraus combined with the stubborn temperament of Trump and Corbyn. He is already completing the reshuffle of the Cabinet to replace those lost.

    Brady's chats won't make any difference, he doesn't know that over 50% of Tory MPs would VONC Boris anymore than Boris does and Boris has already survived one VONC
    Brady has the letters
    But no legitimate way of using them until next June....
    If a majority tell Brady they want the rules changing, that's legitimate.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    Genuinely scary.

    Public universities in Florida will be required to survey both faculty and students on their political beliefs and viewpoints, with the institutions at risk of losing their funding if the responses are not satisfactory to the state's Republican-led legislature.

    The unprecedented project, which was tucked into a law signed Tuesday by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, is part of a long-running, nationwide right-wing push to promote "intellectual diversity" on campuses — though worries over a lack of details on the survey's privacy protections, and questions over what the results may ultimately be used for, hover over the venture.

    Based on the bill's language, survey responses will not necessarily be anonymous — sparking worries among many professors and other university staff that they may be targeted, held back in their careers or even fired for their beliefs.

    According to the bill's sponsor, state Sen. Ray Rodrigues, faculty will not be promoted or fired based on their responses, but, as The Tampa Bay Times reported Tuesday, the bill itself does not back up those claims.


    https://www.salon.com/2021/06/23/desantis-signs-bill-requiring-florida-students-professors-to-register-political-views-with-state/

    No. Completely justified. The horrendous onethink on American campuses has to be challenged. They are 99% Democrat and 98% Woke, yet the rest of America really is not, and this gulf is bad for any country
    I've got little confidence the situation will improve because of 'government surveys'. Too blunt. A softer approach, linking state funding with commitments to viewpoint diversity and freedom of speech would probably be more effective.
    But it is, at least, a start

    Extirpating Extreme Wokeness from Academe is an urgent need. That’s where CRT came from: the universities
    If only you knew as much about US universities and CRT as you do about AI.
    I think you're so embedded into ground zero of liberal California you fail to recognise CRT for the cancer it is.
    I'm mostly poking @Leon's tail re sentient AI, tbh.
    Fair enough.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,904
    Snake in the grass Zahawi has just taken the 50 pieces of silver.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    Genuinely Johnson will call an election to get rid of people plotting, his only way out. Nailed on IMHO

    That would violate all three Lascelles principles.

    Denying one could be Her Maj's finest hour.
    She'll do whatever her PM tells her to do, just look at her granting the 2019 prorogation.
    Not when the politics are like this.
    Politics were even more polarised than now.

    He's also got a near 80 seat majority, she'll grant a dissolution.
    That's why she won't.

    The current parliament is capable of doing it's job, another leader can easily be found who will command confidence of the Commons and there's an economic crisis.

    HMQ will get cover by the politicians laying out the alternative behind the scenes and liaising with her private secretary.
    That's not the Queen's way. To contradict her Prime Minister would be to go against her entire method of Queenship. Doing exactly as her Prime Minister tells her to do allows her to hide behind the Constitution. Actually making a judgement runs the risk of people deciding her judgement was wrong and that she should be replaced by someone with better judgement.

    The Lascelles principles only work if they deter a PM from contradicting them. The Queen will do everything to avoid being seen as a political actor.
    They are there to protect the country against a rogue PM who's totally unprincipled and is trying to game the constitution.

    That's where we're at right now.
    That's exactly what happened with the prorogation and she failed in her role because she doesn't have the mandate to use her theoretical power.

    It's why we need an elected head of state - the monarchy is too scared to play the role the Constitution leaves to them.
    No we don't need an elected head of state who would be party political, deeply divisive and half the country would loathe.

    Though I do think Charles if he were King would have rejected prorogation
  • Options
    FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Stocky said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Farooq said:

    The American House of Cards was way better then the British one

    Who is manning the banhammer this evening?
    There is no ban hammer. Leon posts racist filth and they just quietly delete it and let him carry on.
    Citation?
    Citation is fuck off you vile piece of excrement
    You are embarrassing yourself. Stop
    What you going to do, call me a T--g? Get in the sea you numpty.
    No, I will calmly suggest that this might not be the best time to return to PB, if you are so volatile
    I'm not sticking around long, don't you worry.
    I am actually a tiny bit worried. You don’t seem happy at all

    So, this is a genuine attempt to BE NICE to you

    I remember we have had good chats in the past, Recall how we share a dislike of horrible loud motorbike exhausts! Stay and be friends with people, if you can; but if all you feel able to do is spit hatred and bile then I suggest that’s not great. For you. Is all
    I don't want you to be nice to me, I want a badger to bite you in the cock.
    Does it specifically have to be a badger?
    Well it's not a job I want
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,830
    MaxPB said:

    Surely Liz Truss must resign tomorrow morning. I don't see how her position in the Cabinet is tenable.

    What position would that be … ?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    MattW said:

    Hmm. Kamala Harris turning into Dubya.

    U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris said: "Gas prices are high due to gas prices not being low as before. To get back to lower prices we have to acknowledge gas is high which is the opposite of low."
    https://twitter.com/Sing2wong/status/1543938711838138368

    She's a spectacularly robotic communicator:

    "... which is why we will work together and continue to work together, to address these issues, to tackle these challenges and to work together as we continue to work, operating from the new norms, rules and agreements that we will convene to work together on, to galvanise global action. With that I thank you all. This is a matter of urgent priority for all of us and I know we will work on this together."

    https://twitter.com/juleneely/status/1542970922994384899
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672

    Genuinely Johnson will call an election to get rid of people plotting, his only way out. Nailed on IMHO

    That would violate all three Lascelles principles.

    Denying one could be Her Maj's finest hour.
    She'll do whatever her PM tells her to do, just look at her granting the 2019 prorogation.
    Not when the politics are like this.
    Politics were even more polarised than now.

    He's also got a near 80 seat majority, she'll grant a dissolution.
    That's why she won't.

    The current parliament is capable of doing it's job, another leader can easily be found who will command confidence of the Commons and there's an economic crisis.

    HMQ will get cover by the politicians laying out the alternative behind the scenes and liaising with her private secretary.
    That's not the Queen's way. To contradict her Prime Minister would be to go against her entire method of Queenship. Doing exactly as her Prime Minister tells her to do allows her to hide behind the Constitution. Actually making a judgement runs the risk of people deciding her judgement was wrong and that she should be replaced by someone with better judgement.

    The Lascelles principles only work if they deter a PM from contradicting them. The Queen will do everything to avoid being seen as a political actor.
    They are there to protect the country against a rogue PM who's totally unprincipled and is trying to game the constitution.

    That's where we're at right now.
    That's exactly what happened with the prorogation and she failed in her role because she doesn't have the mandate to use her theoretical power.

    It's why we need an elected head of state - the monarchy is too scared to play the role the Constitution leaves to them.
    No it isn't.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,474
    Scott_xP said:

    And the answer is … drum roll .. Nadhim Zahawi … strange move for a smart man. https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1544403386652852225

    Lay Zahawi
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,018

    Genuinely Johnson will call an election to get rid of people plotting, his only way out. Nailed on IMHO

    That would violate all three Lascelles principles.

    Denying one could be Her Maj's finest hour.
    She'll do whatever her PM tells her to do, just look at her granting the 2019 prorogation.
    Not when the politics are like this.
    Politics were even more polarised than now.

    He's also got a near 80 seat majority, she'll grant a dissolution.
    That's why she won't.

    The current parliament is capable of doing it's job, another leader can easily be found who will command confidence of the Commons and there's an economic crisis.

    HMQ will get cover by the politicians laying out the alternative behind the scenes and liaising with her private secretary.
    That's not the Queen's way. To contradict her Prime Minister would be to go against her entire method of Queenship. Doing exactly as her Prime Minister tells her to do allows her to hide behind the Constitution. Actually making a judgement runs the risk of people deciding her judgement was wrong and that she should be replaced by someone with better judgement.

    The Lascelles principles only work if they deter a PM from contradicting them. The Queen will do everything to avoid being seen as a political actor.

    I'm thinking about going to bed.

    Does that mean we are leaderless until you wake or OGH is less busy?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672

    Scott_xP said:

    Final thought this evening - Rees-Mogg pushing the line that the PM “continues to command a majority of the House”. I mean, you could maybe just about get away with that if there hadn’t recently been a confidence vote in which on a best-case scenario the payroll voted to keep you

    There’s a lot of Virtua Parly/green screen studio extrapolation in this tweet (with arm-waving), with added thought experiments - but I can’t work out how the PM can claim he commands a majority any longer


    https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1544413837071360002

    In reality, he has (or had) the confidence of about 200 MPs or less than a third of the house.

    It will be even less now.
    I mean, if Labour brought a confidence vote right now Boris would win it, no?
    But, if he lost it, although his government would resign that doesn't automatically trigger a GE.

    There are others who can command confidence of the House.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,286

    Genuinely Johnson will call an election to get rid of people plotting, his only way out. Nailed on IMHO

    That would violate all three Lascelles principles.

    Denying one could be Her Maj's finest hour.
    She'll do whatever her PM tells her to do, just look at her granting the 2019 prorogation.
    Not when the politics are like this.
    Politics were even more polarised than now.

    He's also got a near 80 seat majority, she'll grant a dissolution.
    That's why she won't.

    The current parliament is capable of doing it's job, another leader can easily be found who will command confidence of the Commons and there's an economic crisis.

    HMQ will get cover by the politicians laying out the alternative behind the scenes and liaising with her private secretary.
    That's not the Queen's way. To contradict her Prime Minister would be to go against her entire method of Queenship. Doing exactly as her Prime Minister tells her to do allows her to hide behind the Constitution. Actually making a judgement runs the risk of people deciding her judgement was wrong and that she should be replaced by someone with better judgement.

    The Lascelles principles only work if they deter a PM from contradicting them. The Queen will do everything to avoid being seen as a political actor.
    They are there to protect the country against a rogue PM who's totally unprincipled and is trying to game the constitution.

    That's where we're at right now.
    That's exactly what happened with the prorogation and she failed in her role because she doesn't have the mandate to use her theoretical power.

    It's why we need an elected head of state - the monarchy is too scared to play the role the Constitution leaves to them.
    No it isn't.
    Actually, yes it is. The reigns of the successors od EiiR will be very different.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,018

    So - Mail front page will be some bollx about Battling Johnson fights to stop EU banning tape measures that have inches on them?

    Rest of papers: End of Johnson.

    Apart from the Express. They’re overdue a Diana headline.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,718
    HYUFD said:

    Boris truly is Corbyn.

    Brother by another mother.

    He needs to be surgically removed by the 1922 - immediately. He is a vivid embarrassment to the country.

    In June 2016 26 Labour Shadow Cabinet Ministers resigned. Corbyn brushed it off and pressed on and just reshuffled his Cabinet.

    So far Boris is simply following the same game plan
    I do agree. This isn't as bad as Corbyn and Corbyn brushed it off and went on to fight TWO General Elections.

    But on the other hand, its pretty clear that what remains of the Johnson government does not command a majority, or anything approaching a majority, in the House of Commons. It's not even clear if his support amongst MPs is greater than Labour MPs.

    Testing it however, could be tricky, for reasons I've outlined earlier.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,143
    HYUFD said:

    Boris truly is Corbyn.

    Brother by another mother.

    He needs to be surgically removed by the 1922 - immediately. He is a vivid embarrassment to the country.

    In June 2016 26 Labour Shadow Cabinet Ministers resigned. Corbyn brushed it off and pressed on and just reshuffled his Cabinet.

    So far Boris is simply following the same game plan
    Indeed.
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,018
    Roger said:

    All a bit of an anti-climax now, this piece of theatre. I really enjoyed the first couple of hours, but the plot seems to have run out of steam quite quickly for today.

    (Incidentally nobody, I think, has mentioned Alok Sharma, who is in the Cabinet. What's his view of his Leader?)

    Zahawi's the one to watch. Perhaps he's already spoken but they don't come much more ambitious. Possibly he'll be offered CoE but I doubt he'll take it. There are only three Cabinet Ministers likely to get a job under a new leader and Zahawi's the only one who hasn't resigned.

    All the real unemployables have already sworn loyalty
    Who are the real unemployables? Mogg and Dorries obviously. Probably Hancock. Given the limited abilities on the back benches, are the likes of Patel and Truss really unemployable?
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,718

    Sort of feels like tonight is an accidental crisis - Javid and Sunak simultaneously and spontaneously saying enough's enough off their own backs, rather than them signalling the beginning of a coordinated rout - that's turned into a second missed bullet from the Tory leadership gun.

    It's only 'missed' because Boris is completely shameless and the only way to now get rid is a change of the 1922 rules or Starmer VoNCing in Parliament.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,718

    Scott_xP said:

    Final thought this evening - Rees-Mogg pushing the line that the PM “continues to command a majority of the House”. I mean, you could maybe just about get away with that if there hadn’t recently been a confidence vote in which on a best-case scenario the payroll voted to keep you

    There’s a lot of Virtua Parly/green screen studio extrapolation in this tweet (with arm-waving), with added thought experiments - but I can’t work out how the PM can claim he commands a majority any longer


    https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1544413837071360002

    In reality, he has (or had) the confidence of about 200 MPs or less than a third of the house.

    It will be even less now.
    I mean, if Labour brought a confidence vote right now Boris would win it, no?
    But, if he lost it, although his government would resign that doesn't automatically trigger a GE.

    There are others who can command confidence of the House.
    Hence why Labour won't bring one. What is in it for Starmer (or any Labour leader)?
    Get rid of Johnson to face a better leader at the next General Election? They don't want that.
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,018
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just taken an 8 hour break from politics while visiting Wimbledon. What the hell's going on?

    Zimbabwe bringing back gold coins. Maybe the UK should do too.
    I’ve got a couple of half sovereigns. I was thinking of using them next time I need to fill up the car.
    How many kidneys do you have spare?
    Don’t tell me you’ve left it until the red light comes on before refuelling, again!
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,735

    DavidL said:

    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    ·
    1m
    Britain has a new Chancellor ... its Zahawi

    One of our historians will correct me if I am wrong but the shortest time as Chancellor I can think of is that of the Saj: 24 July 2019 – 13 February 2020. So by my reckoning 204 days is the target. I think he has less chance than the England test team has had of late.
    Iain Macleod was Chancellor for a month, from the 20th of June 1970 until the 20th of July 1970.
    The Right Honourable Sir William Lee was Chancellor from 8 March 1754 to 6 April 1754 so a day less than Iain McLeod. He popped his clogs without warning.

    It seems to have been a bad time for Chancellors - lots of short periods in office.

    The Right Honourable William Murray 1st Earl of Mansfield had about 3 months.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,134

    HYUFD said:

    I'm coming to the belief that the rebels have the 180 magic total, and it won't be further cabinet resignations that do for Boris Johnson but Sir Graham Brady having a chat.

    Boris ain't going to resign, he has the hide of a Rhinoceraus combined with the stubborn temperament of Trump and Corbyn. He is already completing the reshuffle of the Cabinet to replace those lost.

    Brady's chats won't make any difference, he doesn't know that over 50% of Tory MPs would VONC Boris anymore than Boris does and Boris has already survived one VONC
    Brady has the letters
    If Brady had letters from a majority of the Parliamentary party then he might give it a try, but even then Boris Johnson wouldn't give up. It's likely that he survives to lead the Tories into the next election regardless, so divided, weak and pitifully inept are his MPs; if the rebel faction tries to call his bluff and he wins a second confidence ballot by so much as a single vote, then the chances of his being turfed out plunge to almost nothing. Both sides know it.

    And so, the grumbling and grunting and tutting and howling will continue, but on the Government will limp, from one scandal to the next (with each making a progressively smaller impression on a public for whom they have grown so routine as to become background noise.) And there's no automatic reason to assume that Boris Johnson would lose the next GE, either. The Opposition is dull and unconvincing, house prices are still going up, and the well-to-do elderly core of the Tory vote are going to be shielded from the worst of the cost of living crisis by a combination of ad hoc benefit payouts and the triple lock.

    The Conservatives' position in the country is far from lost. They are not that far behind Labour for any Government in mid-term, let alone the worst Government in living memory; a few trivial but highly publicised tax giveaways just before the election and a valuable bung for the grey vote (perhaps a system of more generous, year-round subsidies to replace the winter fuel payment) could easily see them safely over the finishing line with Johnson still in place.

    I don't know, this is probably just my innate pessimism about the current state of affairs talking, but it looks to me as if the PM may even be safer in his post now than he was before. The people who are prepared to walk have gone and he's simply replaced them with more malleable successors and is carrying on regardless. If the cabinet is completely loyal and the remainder of the party is too divided, and therefore too confused and/or scared, to act, then how is the man meant to be removed? And he's only going if removed, so if his party won't do it then he is secure until the voters next get a say.
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,018

    Scott_xP said:

    Final thought this evening - Rees-Mogg pushing the line that the PM “continues to command a majority of the House”. I mean, you could maybe just about get away with that if there hadn’t recently been a confidence vote in which on a best-case scenario the payroll voted to keep you

    There’s a lot of Virtua Parly/green screen studio extrapolation in this tweet (with arm-waving), with added thought experiments - but I can’t work out how the PM can claim he commands a majority any longer


    https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1544413837071360002

    In reality, he has (or had) the confidence of about 200 MPs or less than a third of the house.

    It will be even less now.
    I mean, if Labour brought a confidence vote right now Boris would win it, no?

    NEW THREAD

    Bloody hell, @TSE! I thought you were going to bed!
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,593
    DavidL said:

    darkage said:

    DavidL said:

    Tricky one for Wallace given what is on his plate. I see the argument he should stay put but the logic of that is that he stays put as part of a functioning government. I don't think that that exists so how can he do his job? Where does the money come from without a Chancellor, the policy without a functioning cabinet, the leadership with Boris in office?

    I think he should go now in the hope that the whole government is replaced by something bettter that can allow the UK to do what it can to help Ukraine in an effective way rather than by photo op.

    It must be really difficult if you are a Minister deeply committed to a policy and with knowledge of the detail. Gove is a bit like this in DHLUC at the moment. You can see that he has got in to the detail of what he is working on almost to the same level as the civil servants who work for him. It must be hard to walk away from all that.
    Yes, one of the many things that the Coalition got right was leaving ministers in post long enough to actually learn their departments and address the problems. Probably helped by the job deal agreed at the start but it led to better government than the teamsheet approach of the later Blair and Brown administrations.
    It certainly angered civil servants who found ministers who'd been in a their jobs as long as the generalist civil servants got the idea that they might know just as much as the civil servants.
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