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The cabinet are revolting as they prepare to get their Johnson out. – politicalbetting.com

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    My giess is that Boris goes tomorrow. This is over and thank the Lord for that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited July 2022

    Andrew Murrison Trade envoy to Morocco resigns. Big fish coming in now!

    He’s my MP. Glad he’s taken a stand.
    This is actually a bigger deal than people may think, he is usually an arch loyalist and was an early backer of Boris.

    Which means, at the least, that he didn't vote against Boris in the VONC, but would now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MP plugged in to several wings of the party texts: "It is over. More resignations on way"
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1544380470162513920

    Who is left to resign?

    ALSO: has any PM survived the resignation of a COTE? For more than a few weeks, anyway?
    Nothing fundamental has changed. Johnson will reshuffle and carry on.

    The cabinet won't get rid of him. Too many of them know their ministerial careers are over five minutes after a change of leadership. It will take a large majority of the backbenchers to conclude that Johnson is an electoral liability and force him out through a change of rules and another confidence vote. So long as they are split, dithering and wetting their knickers, he's perfectly safe.
    I hear you, but I dunno. He seems mortally wounded to me. A bull in the corrida, with the energy for one last tilt at the cape

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    Scott_xP said:
    I got on earlier at 8.

    But what better proof that Sunak has shaken the whole table up than he is now fav?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    GIN1138 said:

    Good evening PB.

    Has there been some interesting developments?

    *Tsk

    “Have….”
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    The only other example I can think of is Balfour, who survived C T Ritchie’s resignation over tariffs for two and a half years.

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MP plugged in to several wings of the party texts: "It is over. More resignations on way"
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1544380470162513920

    Who is left to resign?

    ALSO: has any PM survived the resignation of a COTE? For more than a few weeks, anyway?
    Macmillan in 1957 or 58.

    Edit - Thorneycroft resigned on 6th Jan 1958.
    Ta
    Thatcher survived for a year after Lawson resigned.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MP plugged in to several wings of the party texts: "It is over. More resignations on way"
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1544380470162513920

    Who is left to resign?

    ALSO: has any PM survived the resignation of a COTE? For more than a few weeks, anyway?
    Nothing fundamental has changed. Johnson will reshuffle and carry on.

    The cabinet won't get rid of him. Too many of them know their ministerial careers are over five minutes after a change of leadership. It will take a large majority of the backbenchers to conclude that Johnson is an electoral liability and force him out through a change of rules and another confidence vote. So long as they are split, dithering and wetting their knickers, he's perfectly safe.
    I hear you, but I dunno. He seems mortally wounded to me. A bull in the corrida, with the energy for one last tilt at the cape

    How's the mood out in Macedonia?

    Have they started dancing in the streets and blowing on car horns?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    kle4 said:

    Andrew Murrison Trade envoy to Morocco resigns. Big fish coming in now!

    He’s my MP. Glad he’s taken a stand.
    This is actually a bigger deal than people may think, he is usually an arch loyalist and was an early backer of Boris.

    Which means, at the least, that he didn't vote against Boris in the VONC, but would now.
    Funnily enough I only received a reply from Gove today about my complaint re. Gray in May. Very funny timing
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Jonathan said:

    The Tories are split in two. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.


    What is splitting the tories is the question of the country they want Britain to be in the post Brexit world. They are very deeply divided on that.

    IF you look closely, that question is splitting the labour party, too.

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    HYUFD said:

    So the Foreign Secretary, the Home Secretary, the Defence Secretary, the Deputy PM, the Business Secretary and now the Education Secretary have now all confirmed their loyalty to the PM.

    So far from being co ordinated across Cabinet it seems Sunak and Javid were outliers. To survive Johnson will now shift to rally the right and the ERG behind him, he will say this is a coup by Remainers to row back from Brexit and those on the left of the party who want to raise taxes and only he can stop them!

    Andrew Bridgen has just said even arch former Johnson loyalists on the backbenchers want him gone and he will be by the summer recess
    File that under "I won't believe it until I see it."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    DavidL said:

    My giess is that Boris goes tomorrow. This is over and thank the Lord for that.

    He only goes when the VONC is passed.

    Has anyone heard from Brady tonight?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    As I reported earlier today, MPs have begun submitting more letters calling for another vote of confidence. Here is one of them. https://twitter.com/ab4scambs/status/1544382196844269571
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Michael Gove is key, I think. Maybe Boris can survive if he can persuade him to become CoE, but Gove hasn't been conspicuous with his support recently.

    Wallace is right to stay as Her Majesty's defence minister, given the Ukraine situation. We really can't afford any discontinuity there.

    Ben Wallace's motivation similar (but more honorable and less self-serving) to that of Jim .Mattis re: 45.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288

    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MP plugged in to several wings of the party texts: "It is over. More resignations on way"
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1544380470162513920

    Who is left to resign?

    ALSO: has any PM survived the resignation of a COTE? For more than a few weeks, anyway?
    Nothing fundamental has changed. Johnson will reshuffle and carry on.

    The cabinet won't get rid of him. Too many of them know their ministerial careers are over five minutes after a change of leadership. It will take a large majority of the backbenchers to conclude that Johnson is an electoral liability and force him out through a change of rules and another confidence vote. So long as they are split, dithering and wetting their knickers, he's perfectly safe.
    I hear you, but I dunno. He seems mortally wounded to me. A bull in the corrida, with the energy for one last tilt at the cape

    How's the mood out in Macedonia?

    Have they started dancing in the streets and blowing on car horns?
    We're still celebrating the cricket, you dorkus of the porkus morkus
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,785
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MP plugged in to several wings of the party texts: "It is over. More resignations on way"
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1544380470162513920

    Who is left to resign?

    ALSO: has any PM survived the resignation of a COTE? For more than a few weeks, anyway?
    Javid resigned as COTE in 2020.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Another MP who had backed Johnson in the confidence vote https://twitter.com/kevinhollinrake/status/1544376333102358528
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    Just been offered the Chancellorship.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990


    Has anyone heard from Brady tonight?

    Iain Dale tells Andrew Marr that 1922 Committee Chair Sir Graham Brady will be 'taking a lot of soundings' this evening to decide whether or not to tell Boris Johnson 'the game is up.'

    @AndrewMarr9 | @IainDale https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1544380101651058689/video/1
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    I’m hesitant to predict his imminent demise given I thought he was done for months ago.

    A shame that there haven’t been a couple more cabinet ministers to be honest. I think the decline is terminal now, it’s just whether he hangs on until after the summer or is gone in the next week.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    edited July 2022
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the Foreign Secretary, the Home Secretary, the Defence Secretary, the Deputy PM, the Business Secretary and now the Education Secretary have now all confirmed their loyalty to the PM.

    So far from being co ordinated across Cabinet it seems Sunak and Javid were outliers. To survive Johnson will now shift to rally the right and the ERG behind him, he will say this is a coup by Remainers to row back from Brexit and those on the left of the party who want to raise taxes and only he can stop them!

    Andrew Bridgen has just said even arch former Johnson loyalists on the backbenchers want him gone and he will be by the summer recess
    File that under "I won't believe it until I see it."
    Boris is a goner. Good.

    Come on Sunak. He and Boris lost my respect last Autumn, but my entirely disinterested wallet forgives you tonight.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    MISTY said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories are split in two. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.


    What is splitting the tories is the question of the country they want Britain to be in the post Brexit world. They are very deeply divided on that.

    IF you look closely, that question is splitting the labour party, too.

    Nah. Labour have different issues, but tonight and the foreseeable are the better bet for stable government. The Tories need a break.

    Meanwhile PMQs might be fun tomorrow.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Scott_xP said:
    Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

    Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    In an incredibly tight field, my current front-runner for funniest thing to happen today is David Frost being so afraid of being left out of the news cycle he circulated a resignation letter from a Cabinet he's not actually in. https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1544381195873669121/photo/1
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    10m
    Told that this evening Tory associations are being contacted by CCHQ to ensure their membership lists are up to date. As I said earlier, things will move fast.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    Just been offered the Chancellorship.

    I didn’t know you were eligible?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Matt Hancock hearing tonight’s news
    Readies speech https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1544383678591258625/photo/1
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,064
    Johnson on Pincher: “I’m telling you exactly what happened. And I’m coming out to explain it. Because I’m fed up with people, if I may say so saying things on my behalf or trying to say.”

    That’s going to endear him to all the ministers he sent out to repeat his lies on telly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Gove staying. Eustice expected to stay but not yet confirmed. Zahawi and Coffey wobbling
    https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1544383423694897159
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    So the Foreign Secretary, the Home Secretary, the Defence Secretary, the Deputy PM, the Business Secretary and now the Education Secretary have now all confirmed their loyalty to the PM.

    So far from being co ordinated across Cabinet it seems Sunak and Javid were outliers. To survive Johnson will now shift to rally the right and the ERG behind him, he will say this is a coup by Remainers to row back from Brexit and those on the left of the party who want to raise taxes and only he can stop them!

    Does it not bother you that we have a Prime Minister who sees nothing wrong with financial corruption, perjury, sexual assault, or threats of violence? Even leaving aside the moral issues, do you think that this is going down well with the average voter?
    Only the Red Wall voter matters.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Just been offered the Chancellorship.

    Did you accept?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    MISTY said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories are split in two. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.


    What is splitting the tories is the question of the country they want Britain to be in the post Brexit world. They are very deeply divided on that.

    IF you look closely, that question is splitting the labour party, too.

    It's deeper than that.
    Some want a small state. Others spending.
    The PM wants spending and tax cuts.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Evening all :)

    Short of any more dramatic developments, it seems we're done on Ministerial resignations for the moment.

    As some have said, nothing that has happened this evening stops Johnson from being Prime Minister - indeed, one might argue the greater damage is to the Conservative Party which looks divided, disunited and fractious and electorates don't often go for parties behaving with such chronic self-indulgence at a time of obvious economic hardship for many (not all though those not suffering hardship may find their luck and savings won't last forever and once we get into autumn even they may be wondering how it will end).

    Contrary to some posters, Johnson limping on wounded is clearly marvellous for the Opposition parties who, pace the average carrion, will watch from afar as the great beast stumbles to his conclusion.

    May survived Johnson's resignation but the loss of a Chancellor is more difficult - once again, as we see so often, the breakdown of the relationships in Downing Street is critical.

    Until the 1922 Committee elections and a new anti-Johnson committee changing the rules, none of this will force Johnson out and he knows it - it's the job he spent 25 years seeking and he'll be dragged kicking and screaming from No.10 (I suspect) unlike May for whom it got too much. There are enough "loyalists" to maintain a functioning Government and short of 150 defections to a new centre-right party, the Commons arithmetic isn't any different.

    The final question is the extent to which the toxicity of recent times is affecting the Conservative Party or whether it can and has been internalised within Boris Johnson - some will be hoping that by getting rid of the Johnson, the poison will also be removed - I'm far from convinced (it didn't work for the Party in the mid 90s).

    I joked the other night the only solution might be to close down the current Conservative Party and start a new centre-right movement.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    edited July 2022
    Nadine Dorries advises Boris to carry on with two fewer cabinet members and call it a Political League instead of a Political Union.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    I’m watching some nice YouTube videos of people removing barnacles from turtles. Seems quite apt.
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

    Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/
    That poll is entirely meaningless tonight. The principled resignations has shaken that up completely.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Basically the only ones left presumably represent the HFUYD aspect of the wing

    God help us
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    (((Pestonia)))
    @Pestonia

    I'm hearing Ben Swain has pulled his team in for a discussion about the leadership.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565

    Just been offered the Chancellorship.

    Not by PM me you haven't....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Basically the only ones left presumably represent the HFUYD aspect of the wing

    God help us

    It's a larger wing than many would like to admit.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 174
    I think he will only leave if more resignations come
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    JRM in Comical Ali mode on C4 News.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,762

    Just been offered the Chancellorship.

    Did you accept?
    I knew he was Nadine Dorries anyway.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    Sitting outside in my garden in a gentle breeze, with warm sun. Just deadheaded some roses. Had a nice meal outside (not having eaten all day). Washing is drying. Birds are singing and butterflies are flirting.

    And just to add perfection, Boris Johnson is being brutally hammered to pieces live on my iPad.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

    Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/
    That poll is entirely meaningless tonight. The principled resignations has shaken that up completely.
    No they haven't at all. The Tory membership will want a pro hard Brexit, tax cutter as PM, not tax rising Sunak as leader
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

    Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/
    Does Conservative Home represent the whole of the Tory party membership? From memory you (or someone else) claimed that it was utterly unrepresentative of the membership as a whole. Heck you need a computer to read it so that probably knocks 20% of the membership out by itself.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Norrie serving for the semis
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    HYUFD said:

    Jacob Rees Mogg: “The PM won a mandate from the a British people and that is more powerful than cabinet ministers resigning”

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1544374357442584576?s=20&t=rRwD-qbCc3wMInUksbCG_A

    Steiner's assault will sort it all out.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 174
    Andrew Murrison has just resigned....

    No i haven't heard of him either
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jacob Rees Mogg: “The PM won a mandate from the a British people and that is more powerful than cabinet ministers resigning”

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1544374357442584576?s=20&t=rRwD-qbCc3wMInUksbCG_A

    Oh, so why does not the Scottish Government double mandate to have a referendum count?
    Politicians only have a mandate when it suits their supporters.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    ydoethur said:

    Just been offered the Chancellorship.

    I didn’t know you were eligible?
    We're just sorting out which Dukedom I'll get.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    Bridgen - all current cabinet ‘are not showing integrity…they can pretty much rule themselves out of the leadership contest to come.’
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    Penny Mordaunt's resignation is taking longer because she's trying to weave some obscure innuendo into the text.

    “There’s a time and a place for a BJ. It’s neither now nor in Downing Street”
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    I note the resignations don't really address the reason their views have presumably changed, Boris's incompetence over Pincher.

    They need to be pressed to be specific. It's fine, if infuriating, if it was that which changed their minds, but you need to explain the change in mind somehow.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

    Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/
    I wouldn't trust that polling as far as I could throw it but you carry on holding on to it like a drowning man holds on to a lifebelt.

    Once you get into a leadership election, all bets are off - obviously, the key will be any polling showing how the different contenders would fare in a possible GE against Labour. After all, that's what won it for Johnson in 2019.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    ydoethur said:

    Sitting outside in my garden in a gentle breeze, with warm sun. Just deadheaded some roses. Had a nice meal outside (not having eaten all day). Washing is drying. Birds are singing and butterflies are flirting.

    And just to add perfection, Boris Johnson is being brutally hammered to pieces live on my iPad.

    That’s a very niche porn site... :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 2022
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

    Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/
    Does Conservative Home represent the whole of the Tory party membership? From memory you (or someone else) claimed that it was utterly unrepresentative of the membership as a whole. Heck you need a computer to read it so that probably knocks 20% of the membership out by itself.
    Yougov figures of Tory members last month were similar, Sunak just 5th in terms of next Tory leader

    Wallace 12%
    Truss 11%
    Hunt 10%
    Mordaunt 8%
    Sunak 7%
    Gove 7%
    Patel 6%
    Tugendhat 5%
    Zahawi 5%
    Raab 4%
    Javid 3%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/06/snap-poll-conservative-members-want-mps-vote-keep-
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    ydoethur said:

    Just been offered the Chancellorship.

    I didn’t know you were eligible?
    We're just sorting out which Dukedom I'll get.
    But if you’re in the Lords you can’t be Second Lord. They sit in the Commons.

    Hold out for First Lord!
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    edited July 2022
    MISTY said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories are split in two. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.


    What is splitting the tories is the question of the country they want Britain to be in the post Brexit world. They are very deeply divided on that.

    IF you look closely, that question is splitting the labour party, too.

    delete, I get it now.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I went back into the bojo exit year market earlier today when this year was evens.

    The wisest betting move i have made since the Holyrood elections exact SNp seat market.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited July 2022

    Andrew Murrison has just resigned....

    No i haven't heard of him either

    MP for 21 years, former Chair of NI Select Committee and a junior minister from time to time. (Also wrote a novel about the Civil War starring a former military man turned MP. and regicide - coincidentally he is a former military man turned MP)

    Big beast he is not. Conventional loyalist, yes.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    ydoethur said:

    Bridgen - all current cabinet ‘are not showing integrity…they can pretty much rule themselves out of the leadership contest to come.’

    'Nice career you have there, shame if something happened to it...'
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Jacob Rees Mogg tells #C4News it is the PM who has a mandate from the people. Those who left he says are “eminently replaceable”.

    Rees Mogg. 'Stalingrad is a triumph for the Fuhrer'. @Channel4News
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    All this reminds me of the House of Cards, is there an FU behind the scenes slowly killing Boris? Who bought Pincher’s drinks?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    @NadineDorries
    ·
    2m
    I’m not sure anyone actually doubted this, however, I am 💯 behind @BorisJohnson the PM who consistently gets all the big decisions right.
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 174
    kle4 said:

    Andrew Murrison has just resigned....

    No i haven't heard of him either

    MP for 21 years, former Chair of NI Select Committee and a junior minister from time to time. (Also wrote a novel about the Civil War starring a former military man turned MP. and regicide - coincidentally he is a former military man turned MP)

    Big beast he is not. Conventional loyalist, yes.
    I bow to your superior knowledge
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Just to put this in perspective - BoJo has fucked this up so badly he's made Sunak a viable leadership option again.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Remember: Boris Johnson going is the last thing Nicola Sturgeon wants. https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1544381651601473542
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    kle4 said:

    Andrew Murrison has just resigned....

    No i haven't heard of him either

    MP for 21 years, former Chair of NI Select Committee and a junior minister from time to time. (Also wrote a novel about the Civil War starring a former military man turned MP. and regicide - coincidentally he is a former military man turned MP)

    Big beast he is not. Conventional loyalist, yes.
    I bow to your superior knowledge
    He’s also @kle4’s mp...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees Mogg tells #C4News it is the PM who has a mandate from the people. Those who left he says are “eminently replaceable”.

    Rees Mogg. 'Stalingrad is a triumph for the Fuhrer'. @Channel4News

    Oh god, he's going to be CoE isn;t he....

    well at least enjoy the tax cuts as we go to hell in a hand basket.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

    Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/
    I wouldn't trust that polling as far as I could throw it but you carry on holding on to it like a drowning man holds on to a lifebelt.

    Once you get into a leadership election, all bets are off - obviously, the key will be any polling showing how the different contenders would fare in a possible GE against Labour. After all, that's what won it for Johnson in 2019.
    To an extent but less so than 2019 as the Tories now have a majority they didn't then.

    Tory members will be looking for some rightwing red meat as reward for the majority the party won in 2019
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    kle4 said:

    Andrew Murrison has just resigned....

    No i haven't heard of him either

    MP for 21 years, former Chair of NI Select Committee and a junior minister from time to time. (Also wrote a novel about the Civil War starring a former military man turned MP. and regicide - coincidentally he is a former military man turned MP)

    Big beast he is not. Conventional loyalist, yes.
    I bow to your superior knowledge
    I cannot pretend to know things about random MPs. Just surprised to see a local MP in the news for once.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    NORRIE!!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,043
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

    Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/
    Does Conservative Home represent the whole of the Tory party membership? From memory you (or someone else) claimed that it was utterly unrepresentative of the membership as a whole. Heck you need a computer to read it so that probably knocks 20% of the membership out by itself.
    Only 750 voted in the latest poll including myself and I am not a member
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

    Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/
    That poll is entirely meaningless tonight. The principled resignations has shaken that up completely.
    No they haven't at all. The Tory membership will want a pro hard Brexit, tax cutter as PM, not tax rising Sunak as leader
    Sunak will blame the tax rise on Boris.

    Your inability to see that polls change is your downfall.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    ydoethur said:

    Sitting outside in my garden in a gentle breeze, with warm sun. Just deadheaded some roses. Had a nice meal outside (not having eaten all day). Washing is drying. Birds are singing and butterflies are flirting.

    And just to add perfection, Boris Johnson is being brutally hammered to pieces live on my iPad.

    That’s a very niche porn site... :D
    My computer misunderstood when I asked for hard core…
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited July 2022

    Just been offered the Chancellorship.

    Chancellor of the Duchy of Wokeshire? Cabinet minister w/o portfolio but with grace & favor (bouncy) castle?

    That's my dream job! Next to Governor of American Samoa.

    Get me dual citizenship, TSE, so I can be your successor, and we'll forget all about my pending (dive) bar complaint re: your lamentable (non)performance re: West West Virginia claim against HMG.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    DavidL said:

    My giess is that Boris goes tomorrow. This is over and thank the Lord for that.

    PMQs will be entertaining. Isn't BloJo then up in front of the Liaison Committee?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the end. What the hell took them so long? It's not as though we've learnt anything about Boris this week that we didn't know last month, or last year, or in 2019 when he was chosen as leader.

    Still, it's progress. Getting rid of him is the necessary first stage - but only the first stage - of putting things right.

    Yes, back to opposition, probably for at least a decade if not more.

    Last time the Tories toppled an election winning PM, Thatcher in 1990, they lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and it took them until Boris in 2019 to win a big majority again
    Oh, I think it's very likely that the Conservatives will be very, very unpopular for a long time. But you're putting the blame in the wrong place. It's Boris who has wrecked the party, and it's going to take a very long time for it to be forgotten. As I wrote on the day he became leader:

    The party is no longer recognisable as the pragmatic, business-friendly, economically-sound, reality-based party of government which I have supported for decades. It will justifiably get the electoral blame for the consequences of the disastrous course it has chosen, and will probably never be forgiven by younger voters.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/07/24/why-ive-resigned-from-the-conservative-party/
    The Tory Party is not just the political wing of the CBI and the City of London. It also has to reach working class and lower middle class voters to win, Thatcher managed to do so as did Boris

    Apart from everything else, Boris is a clear and present danger to the Union. He is total anti-catnip to Scots, and the SNP use him as a recruiting tool, and they mentioned him by name when announcing "Sindyref" 2. One person who will be really praying he survives is Sturgeon

    Surely you can see this? You're a unionist
    Boris can just refuse an indyref2 still and nothing the SNP can do to change Scotland's status in the union without UK government consent. Legally and constitutionally therefore it does not matter how unpopular the PM is in Scotland if they have a majority at Westminster to refuse indyref2.

    Only if they grant an indyref2 does the UK PM's popularity matter in Scotland
    FPT: here's a nice brazil nut.

    BTW you do realise there are Tory constituencies in Scotland, with actual live Tory MPs in them?
    Even if the Tories won 0 seats in Scotland in 2019 they would still have had a majority of 68
    And do you think that would have been anything other than catastrophic for the Union @HYUFD? I mean, for goodness sake.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

    Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/
    That poll is entirely meaningless tonight. The principled resignations has shaken that up completely.
    No they haven't at all. The Tory membership will want a pro hard Brexit, tax cutter as PM, not tax rising Sunak as leader
    So the Tory membership want to fuck up the country even more that it’s already fucked up? God help us!
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Conservative MP plugged in to several wings of the party texts: "It is over. More resignations on way"
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1544380470162513920

    Who is left to resign?

    ALSO: has any PM survived the resignation of a COTE? For more than a few weeks, anyway?
    Technically, Boris did once already.
    Javid resigned as CoTE in 2020 when ordered to replace his advisers.

    Different circumstances, obviously.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

    Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/
    That poll is entirely meaningless tonight. The principled resignations has shaken that up completely.
    No they haven't at all. The Tory membership will want a pro hard Brexit, tax cutter as PM, not tax rising Sunak as leader
    Sunak will blame the tax rise on Boris.

    Your inability to see that polls change is your downfall.
    They won't change amongst Tory members who have the final say
  • DavidL said:

    My giess is that Boris goes tomorrow. This is over and thank the Lord for that.

    PMQs will be entertaining. Isn't BloJo then up in front of the Liaison Committee?
    Evens he resigns before midday tomorrow.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663

    Jonathan said:

    All this reminds me of the House of Cards, is there an FU behind the scenes slowly killing Boris? Who bought Pincher’s drinks?

    You might think that; I couldn't possibly comment.
    Bravo.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees Mogg tells #C4News it is the PM who has a mandate from the people. Those who left he says are “eminently replaceable”.

    Rees Mogg. 'Stalingrad is a triumph for the Fuhrer'. @Channel4News

    Jacob Rees Mogg is the nastiest and stupidest human being ever to be an MP.

    I cannot figure out if he believes what he says. He's loyal to Boris, I get it, I can even understand it, but he knows that is not how our country works.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719

    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees Mogg tells #C4News it is the PM who has a mandate from the people. Those who left he says are “eminently replaceable”.

    Rees Mogg. 'Stalingrad is a triumph for the Fuhrer'. @Channel4News

    Oh god, he's going to be CoE isn;t he....

    well at least enjoy the tax cuts as we go to hell in a hand basket.
    Who has been the CoE with shortest time in office?

    Mogg will get a week.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

    Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/
    That poll is entirely meaningless tonight. The principled resignations has shaken that up completely.
    No they haven't at all. The Tory membership will want a pro hard Brexit, tax cutter as PM, not tax rising Sunak as leader
    Sunak will blame the tax rise on Boris.

    Your inability to see that polls change is your downfall.
    They won't change amongst Tory members who have the final say
    They will.

    They've moved a lot in past 12 months. Why would they magically freeze now?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Ben Wallace has perfect cover to not resign incidentally.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 2022
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the end. What the hell took them so long? It's not as though we've learnt anything about Boris this week that we didn't know last month, or last year, or in 2019 when he was chosen as leader.

    Still, it's progress. Getting rid of him is the necessary first stage - but only the first stage - of putting things right.

    Yes, back to opposition, probably for at least a decade if not more.

    Last time the Tories toppled an election winning PM, Thatcher in 1990, they lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and it took them until Boris in 2019 to win a big majority again
    Oh, I think it's very likely that the Conservatives will be very, very unpopular for a long time. But you're putting the blame in the wrong place. It's Boris who has wrecked the party, and it's going to take a very long time for it to be forgotten. As I wrote on the day he became leader:

    The party is no longer recognisable as the pragmatic, business-friendly, economically-sound, reality-based party of government which I have supported for decades. It will justifiably get the electoral blame for the consequences of the disastrous course it has chosen, and will probably never be forgiven by younger voters.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/07/24/why-ive-resigned-from-the-conservative-party/
    The Tory Party is not just the political wing of the CBI and the City of London. It also has to reach working class and lower middle class voters to win, Thatcher managed to do so as did Boris

    Apart from everything else, Boris is a clear and present danger to the Union. He is total anti-catnip to Scots, and the SNP use him as a recruiting tool, and they mentioned him by name when announcing "Sindyref" 2. One person who will be really praying he survives is Sturgeon

    Surely you can see this? You're a unionist
    Boris can just refuse an indyref2 still and nothing the SNP can do to change Scotland's status in the union without UK government consent. Legally and constitutionally therefore it does not matter how unpopular the PM is in Scotland if they have a majority at Westminster to refuse indyref2.

    Only if they grant an indyref2 does the UK PM's popularity matter in Scotland
    FPT: here's a nice brazil nut.

    BTW you do realise there are Tory constituencies in Scotland, with actual live Tory MPs in them?
    Even if the Tories won 0 seats in Scotland in 2019 they would still have had a majority of 68
    And do you think that would have been anything other than catastrophic for the Union @HYUFD? I mean, for goodness sake.
    From 2015 to 2017 they were in government with a majority under Cameron and May with just 1 seat in Scotland
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    If anyone doubted that Johnson is a cult within the Tory party and wider, now we can see.

    The true believers will do anything to keep their hero.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Taz said:

    I’m watching some nice YouTube videos of people removing barnacles from turtles. Seems quite apt.

    Oh? Presumably for the chelonians' benefit?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    HYUFD said:

    So the Foreign Secretary, the Home Secretary, the Defence Secretary, the Deputy PM, the Business Secretary and now the Education Secretary have now all confirmed their loyalty to the PM.

    So far from being co ordinated across Cabinet it seems Sunak and Javid were outliers. To survive Johnson will now shift to rally the right and the ERG behind him, he will say this is a coup by Remainers to row back from Brexit and those on the left of the party who want to raise taxes and only he can stop them!

    The government loses the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Health Minister at the same time, resigning because they "can't continue in good conscience" and your reaction is it's OK because 6 other ministers haven't left!!!

    Yuo can carry on with your glass half full thinking, but at some point it really is going to be empty.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Have any Ladies in Waiting resigned yet?

    Thinking specifically of Mickey Fabricant - the thinking person's Boris Johnson.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Farooq said:

    The American House of Cards was way better then the British one

    Who is manning the banhammer this evening?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    edited July 2022

    NORRIE!!

    British male semi finalists at Wimbledon, Open Era:

    Roger Taylor
    Tim Henman
    Andy Murray
    And now, Cameron Norrie.

    A very select group. Well done him.
This discussion has been closed.