The cabinet are revolting as they prepare to get their Johnson out. – politicalbetting.com

turbotubbs said:

wooliedyed said:

Andrew Murrison Trade envoy to Morocco resigns. Big fish coming in now!

He’s my MP. Glad he’s taken a stand.

This is actually a bigger deal than people may think, he is usually an arch loyalist and was an early backer of Boris.

Which means, at the least, that he didn't vote against Boris in the VONC, but would now.

Scott_xP said:

Rishi Sunak is your new 4/1 favourite for next Tory leader

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-conservative-party-leader/228826373/all-markets https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1544381935601975296/photo/1

I got on earlier at 8.

But what better proof that Sunak has shaken the whole table up than he is now fav?

Leon said:

pigeon said:

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Conservative MP plugged in to several wings of the party texts: "It is over. More resignations on way"
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1544380470162513920

Who is left to resign?

ALSO: has any PM survived the resignation of a COTE? For more than a few weeks, anyway?

Nothing fundamental has changed. Johnson will reshuffle and carry on.

The cabinet won't get rid of him. Too many of them know their ministerial careers are over five minutes after a change of leadership. It will take a large majority of the backbenchers to conclude that Johnson is an electoral liability and force him out through a change of rules and another confidence vote. So long as they are split, dithering and wetting their knickers, he's perfectly safe.

I hear you, but I dunno. He seems mortally wounded to me. A bull in the corrida, with the energy for one last tilt at the cape

How's the mood out in Macedonia?

Have they started dancing in the streets and blowing on car horns?

DavidL said:

My giess is that Boris goes tomorrow. This is over and thank the Lord for that.

He only goes when the VONC is passed.

Has anyone heard from Brady tonight?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Michael Gove is key, I think. Maybe Boris can survive if he can persuade him to become CoE, but Gove hasn't been conspicuous with his support recently.

Wallace is right to stay as Her Majesty's defence minister, given the Ukraine situation. We really can't afford any discontinuity there.

Ben Wallace's motivation similar (but more honorable and less self-serving) to that of Jim .Mattis re: 45.

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Conservative MP plugged in to several wings of the party texts: "It is over. More resignations on way"
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1544380470162513920

Who is left to resign?

ALSO: has any PM survived the resignation of a COTE? For more than a few weeks, anyway?

Javid resigned as COTE in 2020.

Just been offered the Chancellorship.

I’m hesitant to predict his imminent demise given I thought he was done for months ago.

A shame that there haven’t been a couple more cabinet ministers to be honest. I think the decline is terminal now, it’s just whether he hangs on until after the summer or is gone in the next week.

MISTY said:

Jonathan said:

The Tories are split in two. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.

What is splitting the tories is the question of the country they want Britain to be in the post Brexit world. They are very deeply divided on that.

IF you look closely, that question is splitting the labour party, too.

Nah. Labour have different issues, but tonight and the foreseeable are the better bet for stable government. The Tories need a break.

Meanwhile PMQs might be fun tomorrow.

In an incredibly tight field, my current front-runner for funniest thing to happen today is David Frost being so afraid of being left out of the news cycle he circulated a resignation letter from a Cabinet he's not actually in. https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1544381195873669121/photo/1

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just been offered the Chancellorship.

I didn’t know you were eligible?

Johnson on Pincher: “I’m telling you exactly what happened. And I’m coming out to explain it. Because I’m fed up with people, if I may say so saying things on my behalf or trying to say.”

That’s going to endear him to all the ministers he sent out to repeat his lies on telly.

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

So the Foreign Secretary, the Home Secretary, the Defence Secretary, the Deputy PM, the Business Secretary and now the Education Secretary have now all confirmed their loyalty to the PM.

So far from being co ordinated across Cabinet it seems Sunak and Javid were outliers. To survive Johnson will now shift to rally the right and the ERG behind him, he will say this is a coup by Remainers to row back from Brexit and those on the left of the party who want to raise taxes and only he can stop them!

Does it not bother you that we have a Prime Minister who sees nothing wrong with financial corruption, perjury, sexual assault, or threats of violence? Even leaving aside the moral issues, do you think that this is going down well with the average voter?

Only the Red Wall voter matters.

MISTY said:

Jonathan said:

The Tories are split in two. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.

What is splitting the tories is the question of the country they want Britain to be in the post Brexit world. They are very deeply divided on that.

IF you look closely, that question is splitting the labour party, too.

It's deeper than that.
Some want a small state. Others spending.
The PM wants spending and tax cuts.

Evening all

Short of any more dramatic developments, it seems we're done on Ministerial resignations for the moment.

As some have said, nothing that has happened this evening stops Johnson from being Prime Minister - indeed, one might argue the greater damage is to the Conservative Party which looks divided, disunited and fractious and electorates don't often go for parties behaving with such chronic self-indulgence at a time of obvious economic hardship for many (not all though those not suffering hardship may find their luck and savings won't last forever and once we get into autumn even they may be wondering how it will end).

Contrary to some posters, Johnson limping on wounded is clearly marvellous for the Opposition parties who, pace the average carrion, will watch from afar as the great beast stumbles to his conclusion.

May survived Johnson's resignation but the loss of a Chancellor is more difficult - once again, as we see so often, the breakdown of the relationships in Downing Street is critical.

Until the 1922 Committee elections and a new anti-Johnson committee changing the rules, none of this will force Johnson out and he knows it - it's the job he spent 25 years seeking and he'll be dragged kicking and screaming from No.10 (I suspect) unlike May for whom it got too much. There are enough "loyalists" to maintain a functioning Government and short of 150 defections to a new centre-right party, the Commons arithmetic isn't any different.

The final question is the extent to which the toxicity of recent times is affecting the Conservative Party or whether it can and has been internalised within Boris Johnson - some will be hoping that by getting rid of the Johnson, the poison will also be removed - I'm far from convinced (it didn't work for the Party in the mid 90s).

I joked the other night the only solution might be to close down the current Conservative Party and start a new centre-right movement.

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

Rishi Sunak is your new 4/1 favourite for next Tory leader

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-conservative-party-leader/228826373/all-markets https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1544381935601975296/photo/1

Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/

That poll is entirely meaningless tonight. The principled resignations has shaken that up completely.

(((Pestonia)))
@Pestonia

I'm hearing Ben Swain has pulled his team in for a discussion about the leadership.

Razedabode said:

Basically the only ones left presumably represent the HFUYD aspect of the wing

God help us

It's a larger wing than many would like to admit.

JRM in Comical Ali mode on C4 News.

Sitting outside in my garden in a gentle breeze, with warm sun. Just deadheaded some roses. Had a nice meal outside (not having eaten all day). Washing is drying. Birds are singing and butterflies are flirting.

And just to add perfection, Boris Johnson is being brutally hammered to pieces live on my iPad.

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

Rishi Sunak is your new 4/1 favourite for next Tory leader

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-conservative-party-leader/228826373/all-markets https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1544381935601975296/photo/1

Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/

Does Conservative Home represent the whole of the Tory party membership? From memory you (or someone else) claimed that it was utterly unrepresentative of the membership as a whole. Heck you need a computer to read it so that probably knocks 20% of the membership out by itself.

HYUFD said:

Jacob Rees Mogg: “The PM won a mandate from the a British people and that is more powerful than cabinet ministers resigning”

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1544374357442584576?s=20&t=rRwD-qbCc3wMInUksbCG_A

Steiner's assault will sort it all out.

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Jacob Rees Mogg: “The PM won a mandate from the a British people and that is more powerful than cabinet ministers resigning”

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1544374357442584576?s=20&t=rRwD-qbCc3wMInUksbCG_A

Oh, so why does not the Scottish Government double mandate to have a referendum count?

Politicians only have a mandate when it suits their supporters.

Bridgen - all current cabinet ‘are not showing integrity…they can pretty much rule themselves out of the leadership contest to come.’

I note the resignations don't really address the reason their views have presumably changed, Boris's incompetence over Pincher.

They need to be pressed to be specific. It's fine, if infuriating, if it was that which changed their minds, but you need to explain the change in mind somehow.

eek said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

Rishi Sunak is your new 4/1 favourite for next Tory leader

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-conservative-party-leader/228826373/all-markets https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1544381935601975296/photo/1

Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/

Does Conservative Home represent the whole of the Tory party membership? From memory you (or someone else) claimed that it was utterly unrepresentative of the membership as a whole. Heck you need a computer to read it so that probably knocks 20% of the membership out by itself.

Yougov figures of Tory members last month were similar, Sunak just 5th in terms of next Tory leader

Wallace 12%
Truss 11%
Hunt 10%
Mordaunt 8%
Sunak 7%
Gove 7%
Patel 6%
Tugendhat 5%
Zahawi 5%
Raab 4%
Javid 3%

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/06/06/snap-poll-conservative-members-want-mps-vote-keep-

MISTY said:

Jonathan said:

The Tories are split in two. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch.

What is splitting the tories is the question of the country they want Britain to be in the post Brexit world. They are very deeply divided on that.

IF you look closely, that question is splitting the labour party, too.

delete, I get it now.

MPartridge said:

Andrew Murrison has just resigned....

No i haven't heard of him either

MP for 21 years, former Chair of NI Select Committee and a junior minister from time to time. (Also wrote a novel about the Civil War starring a former military man turned MP. and regicide - coincidentally he is a former military man turned MP)

Big beast he is not. Conventional loyalist, yes.

Jacob Rees Mogg tells #C4News it is the PM who has a mandate from the people. Those who left he says are “eminently replaceable”.

Rees Mogg. 'Stalingrad is a triumph for the Fuhrer'. @Channel4News

@NadineDorries
·
2m
I’m not sure anyone actually doubted this, however, I am 💯 behind @BorisJohnson the PM who consistently gets all the big decisions right.

Just to put this in perspective - BoJo has fucked this up so badly he's made Sunak a viable leadership option again.

MPartridge said:

kle4 said:

MPartridge said:

Andrew Murrison has just resigned....

No i haven't heard of him either

MP for 21 years, former Chair of NI Select Committee and a junior minister from time to time. (Also wrote a novel about the Civil War starring a former military man turned MP. and regicide - coincidentally he is a former military man turned MP)

Big beast he is not. Conventional loyalist, yes.

I bow to your superior knowledge

He’s also @kle4’s mp...

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

Rishi Sunak is your new 4/1 favourite for next Tory leader

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-conservative-party-leader/228826373/all-markets https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1544381935601975296/photo/1

Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/

I wouldn't trust that polling as far as I could throw it but you carry on holding on to it like a drowning man holds on to a lifebelt.

Once you get into a leadership election, all bets are off - obviously, the key will be any polling showing how the different contenders would fare in a possible GE against Labour. After all, that's what won it for Johnson in 2019.

To an extent but less so than 2019 as the Tories now have a majority they didn't then.

Tory members will be looking for some rightwing red meat as reward for the majority the party won in 2019

MPartridge said:

kle4 said:

MPartridge said:

Andrew Murrison has just resigned....

No i haven't heard of him either

MP for 21 years, former Chair of NI Select Committee and a junior minister from time to time. (Also wrote a novel about the Civil War starring a former military man turned MP. and regicide - coincidentally he is a former military man turned MP)

Big beast he is not. Conventional loyalist, yes.

I bow to your superior knowledge

I cannot pretend to know things about random MPs. Just surprised to see a local MP in the news for once.

eek said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

Rishi Sunak is your new 4/1 favourite for next Tory leader

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-conservative-party-leader/228826373/all-markets https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1544381935601975296/photo/1

Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/

Does Conservative Home represent the whole of the Tory party membership? From memory you (or someone else) claimed that it was utterly unrepresentative of the membership as a whole. Heck you need a computer to read it so that probably knocks 20% of the membership out by itself.

Only 750 voted in the latest poll including myself and I am not a member

turbotubbs said:

ydoethur said:

Sitting outside in my garden in a gentle breeze, with warm sun. Just deadheaded some roses. Had a nice meal outside (not having eaten all day). Washing is drying. Birds are singing and butterflies are flirting.

And just to add perfection, Boris Johnson is being brutally hammered to pieces live on my iPad.

That’s a very niche porn site...

My computer misunderstood when I asked for hard core…

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Looks like the end. What the hell took them so long? It's not as though we've learnt anything about Boris this week that we didn't know last month, or last year, or in 2019 when he was chosen as leader.

Still, it's progress. Getting rid of him is the necessary first stage - but only the first stage - of putting things right.

Yes, back to opposition, probably for at least a decade if not more.

Last time the Tories toppled an election winning PM, Thatcher in 1990, they lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections and it took them until Boris in 2019 to win a big majority again

Oh, I think it's very likely that the Conservatives will be very, very unpopular for a long time. But you're putting the blame in the wrong place. It's Boris who has wrecked the party, and it's going to take a very long time for it to be forgotten. As I wrote on the day he became leader:

The party is no longer recognisable as the pragmatic, business-friendly, economically-sound, reality-based party of government which I have supported for decades. It will justifiably get the electoral blame for the consequences of the disastrous course it has chosen, and will probably never be forgiven by younger voters.

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/07/24/why-ive-resigned-from-the-conservative-party/

The Tory Party is not just the political wing of the CBI and the City of London. It also has to reach working class and lower middle class voters to win, Thatcher managed to do so as did Boris

Apart from everything else, Boris is a clear and present danger to the Union. He is total anti-catnip to Scots, and the SNP use him as a recruiting tool, and they mentioned him by name when announcing "Sindyref" 2. One person who will be really praying he survives is Sturgeon

Surely you can see this? You're a unionist

Boris can just refuse an indyref2 still and nothing the SNP can do to change Scotland's status in the union without UK government consent. Legally and constitutionally therefore it does not matter how unpopular the PM is in Scotland if they have a majority at Westminster to refuse indyref2.

Only if they grant an indyref2 does the UK PM's popularity matter in Scotland

FPT: here's a nice brazil nut.

BTW you do realise there are Tory constituencies in Scotland, with actual live Tory MPs in them?

Even if the Tories won 0 seats in Scotland in 2019 they would still have had a majority of 68

And do you think that would have been anything other than catastrophic for the Union @HYUFD? I mean, for goodness sake.

Leon said:

Scott_xP said:

Conservative MP plugged in to several wings of the party texts: "It is over. More resignations on way"
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1544380470162513920

Who is left to resign?

ALSO: has any PM survived the resignation of a COTE? For more than a few weeks, anyway?

Technically, Boris did once already.
Javid resigned as CoTE in 2020 when ordered to replace his advisers.

Different circumstances, obviously.

RochdalePioneers said:

DavidL said:

My giess is that Boris goes tomorrow. This is over and thank the Lord for that.

PMQs will be entertaining. Isn't BloJo then up in front of the Liaison Committee?

Evens he resigns before midday tomorrow.

ydoethur said:

Scott_xP said:

Jacob Rees Mogg tells #C4News it is the PM who has a mandate from the people. Those who left he says are “eminently replaceable”.

Rees Mogg. 'Stalingrad is a triumph for the Fuhrer'. @Channel4News

Jacob Rees Mogg is the nastiest and stupidest human being ever to be an MP.

I cannot figure out if he believes what he says. He's loyal to Boris, I get it, I can even understand it, but he knows that is not how our country works.

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

Rishi Sunak is your new 4/1 favourite for next Tory leader

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-conservative-party-leader/228826373/all-markets https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1544381935601975296/photo/1

Which is ludicrous given he would not get past the Tory membership.

Truss beat Sunak 50% to 35%, Mordaunt beat Sunak 50% to 33% and Wallace beat Sunak 59% to 25% in Conhome's survey this week

https://conservativehome.com/2022/07/04/next-tory-leader-play-offs-sixth-rishi-sunak/

That poll is entirely meaningless tonight. The principled resignations has shaken that up completely.

No they haven't at all. The Tory membership will want a pro hard Brexit, tax cutter as PM, not tax rising Sunak as leader

Sunak will blame the tax rise on Boris.

Your inability to see that polls change is your downfall.

They won't change amongst Tory members who have the final say

They will.

They've moved a lot in past 12 months. Why would they magically freeze now?

Ben Wallace has perfect cover to not resign incidentally.

If anyone doubted that Johnson is a cult within the Tory party and wider, now we can see.

The true believers will do anything to keep their hero.

HYUFD said:

So the Foreign Secretary, the Home Secretary, the Defence Secretary, the Deputy PM, the Business Secretary and now the Education Secretary have now all confirmed their loyalty to the PM.

So far from being co ordinated across Cabinet it seems Sunak and Javid were outliers. To survive Johnson will now shift to rally the right and the ERG behind him, he will say this is a coup by Remainers to row back from Brexit and those on the left of the party who want to raise taxes and only he can stop them!

The government loses the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Health Minister at the same time, resigning because they "can't continue in good conscience" and your reaction is it's OK because 6 other ministers haven't left!!!

Yuo can carry on with your glass half full thinking, but at some point it really is going to be empty.

Farooq said:

The American House of Cards was way better then the British one

Who is manning the banhammer this evening?