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The ConservativeHome poll is bad news for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,926

    The Battle of Wolf 359 says hello.
    Resistance is most definitely NOT futile.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624
    RobD said:

    This is the vote where we get white smoke if there's no confidence, right?

    Or racist black smoke?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    stodge said:

    I've just watched the meeting of three icons for the fifth time - the Queen, Paddington and a marmalade sandwich.

    That's the Platinum Jubilee for me - you can forget the rest.

    By the way anyone using the term "Platty Joobs" should be eviscerated and then ritually disembowelled before being sent to canvass for the Conservatives in East Ham for the next 200 years.

    No one with a scintilla of class would collaborate in such a debasement of the English language. I'm told that should include PB sub-editors.

    I read a suggestion on twatter that both 'Her Maj' and Paddington were CGI images in that spendid video (!)

    Tell me it ain't so!

    Surely Paddington at least was real?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548

    Is that the bit where Carrie explodes as she has "only just spent £200K on new wallpaper for the bloody flat and now we have to leave"?
    Surely the whole problem was they didn't pay for it? I suppose they may have been chided to pay some back.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,105
    I hope all the Tory MPs defending Boris lose their seats
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,173

    Oh gosh, I was being sarcastic - thought that was obvious. I think what you say is considerably worse in the present government than under May or any of her predecessor, however. It really is a Cabinet of none of the talents (or few, being generous).
    Sorry, didn't pick up on the sarcasm. It is an increasing trend so inevitably the current cabinet shows the trend most strongly. I do not think this trend will reverse anytime soon under anyone.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,207
    stodge said:

    Today's highlight, without a doubt, has been @david_herdson (for whom I would vote were I a Wakefield constituent and who I hope kicks the Conservatives down to third place) demolishing that fatuous waste of space Julia Hartley-Brewer.

    Kudos, sir.

    Where was that?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,517
    edited June 2022

    I hope all the Tory MPs defending Boris lose their seats

    Most of them will.

    Labour need not even campaign.

    Just print ten million leaflets with that photo of Queen alone at her husband's funeral and then spend the rest of campaign in the Red Lion deciding on cabinet.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,782

    Is that a bad thing for an aspiring politician? Perhaps but at least it won't be like the Labour Party where 80% of MPs voted against their leader, but he remained in office for over three more years and two General Election defeats.
    Yes, but he was LoTO not PM, so he didn't need to have the confidence of the House.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,660
    edited June 2022
    Farooq said:

    Resistance was not futile, in the end
    39 out of 40 starships destroyed and 11,000 deaths though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548

    I hope all the Tory MPs defending Boris lose their seats

    Nadine Dorries has a majority of 24k. Yes it's weigh the Blue votes territory, but she also gives them what they want.
  • BarneyBarney Posts: 20
    A question for the constitutional and procedural experts. Say BJ survives tonight but the Privileges Committee’s report on him is highly critical. What is the process for triggering a vote on suspending or expelling him from the House? And what would be the consequences of such a motion being passed. It would only take 40 highly principled Tories to make that happen.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,472
    Foxy said:

    Where was that?
    A tweet a couple of hours ago. Hartley-Brewer pontificated on the kind of Prime Minister for whom she would vote and was rightly put in her place by David.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    No collapsing on Betfair - now 12.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,288

    39 out of 40 starships destroyed and 11,000 death though.
    It is not linear.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    I do hope HYUFD and others at least enjoy the moment of victory. It may or may not be shortlived, but they'll take a win.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,660
    Foxy said:

    Where was that?
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1533856778538082304
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 913
    kle4 said:

    That is a remarkable guess given how many novels there are about the subject. I'm actually onto Green Mars at the moment.
    I have Red Mars on my TBR, and looking forward to it. Got twenty pages of Citizen Clem and The Power Broker before I get there.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637
    DavidL said:

    Between Community Chest and Liverpool Street Station, where it always is.
    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/newslondon/elizabeth-line-bond-street-to-open-when-crossrail-sections-integrate-in-autumn/ar-AAXIsB6?ocid=uxbndlbing
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,155
    MikeL said:

    No collapsing on Betfair - now 12.

    Someone thinks they know something.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    Get on with it ......
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,844
    Barney said:

    A question for the constitutional and procedural experts. Say BJ survives tonight but the Privileges Committee’s report on him is highly critical. What is the process for triggering a vote on suspending or expelling him from the House? And what would be the consequences of such a motion being passed. It would only take 40 highly principled Tories to make that happen.

    I believe that censure gets proposed as a motion and then voted on. I suppose the government could make it a matter of confidence but on the scenario where he won but not by much I'd love to see them enforce that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,521
    Busy on here tonight. Is something important happening?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,396
    There's an odd amount of unanimity in Tory circles about what is going to happen today. The precise numbers people are speculating about do vary, but there is a general sense that Boris Johnson will win this vote yet not by enough to put the leadership question to bed. The rebels, many of whom have now burnt their boats on the beach, will keep coming and everything will be about if not when the 1922 committee will change the rules to allow another vote.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/tonight-won-t-end-the-tory-leadership-question
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,173
    MikeL said:

    No collapsing on Betfair - now 12.

    So someone does know. With an account too.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    Someone thinks they know something.
    It's a known unknown.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637

    39 out of 40 starships destroyed and 11,000 deaths though.
    "Population 9 billion... all Tories!"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,689
    Some serious unintended irony here.
    Some very long faces on supporters of
    @BorisJohnson after poll closed. One PM ally said of Tory MPs: They are a bunch of lying snakes. I don’t trust anything they say..

    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533889858615255041

    He really has surrounded himself with idiots.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    I told you then. And I tell you now.

    Boris is going nowhere.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548

    There's an odd amount of unanimity in Tory circles about what is going to happen today. The precise numbers people are speculating about do vary, but there is a general sense that Boris Johnson will win this vote yet not by enough to put the leadership question to bed. The rebels, many of whom have now burnt their boats on the beach, will keep coming and everything will be about if not when the 1922 committee will change the rules to allow another vote.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/tonight-won-t-end-the-tory-leadership-question

    Fatal mistake of some to hold off for a future vote. A lot of damage could be done.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,517
    ydoethur said:

    Busy on here tonight. Is something important happening?

    Love Island is starting.

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Barney said:

    A question for the constitutional and procedural experts. Say BJ survives tonight but the Privileges Committee’s report on him is highly critical. What is the process for triggering a vote on suspending or expelling him from the House? And what would be the consequences of such a motion being passed. It would only take 40 highly principled Tories to make that happen.

    I don't think we will get that report until the autumn so there is time to ponder that.

    But I believe that they propose a penalty and the whole house votes on it. It can be a suspension for a given number of days or even weeks or it could be expulsion.

    I also believe that a suspension can also trigger a recall petition if it is over a certain length of time. But I am not sure of the thresholds.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,103

    Maybe there's a recount?
    There’s no provision for a recount in the rules; part of the reason why it is so slow.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072
    Heathener said:

    Failing to have the confidence of 1/3rd of your own MPs would hardly constitute "a clear win"
    On reflection, I’ve realised I was just too polite and easy on you about my earlier “there is Brexit at play here” post Heathener, so I am back to say you are UTTERLY WRONG. Brexit is in all things politics and government today.

    Boris Brexit Deal isn’t just some thing which happened historically, it’s the very reality of governing the country today. It not just stymied this governments flexible and quick policy making, it will do for coming governments, regardless which party they are.

    If you are the sort of politician not minded to say fuck business, then what more do you have for business leaders when they come to the meeting, unless you are willing to be more flexible with Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal than he is/can be. Other example, DUP keeping NI assembly closed because of the Brexit deal is not Boris Johnson’s conundrum to deal with for anyone who aspires to form a Westminster government, it’s their conundrum too. Likewise in terms of a Remainia and leaverstan in voting patterns, where when a by election comes up PB reaches for the 2016 vote chart, that hasn’t gone away at all, despite Boris promise to heal and move the nation on in 2019 - and how Brexit shapes votes is questions and work for both Labour and Tory if they wish big tents of voters for political power from now on.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,288
    MikeL said:

    No collapsing on Betfair - now 12.

    Someone will have a sense by now - it doesn't take that long to count 360 votes with only two options - so it's possible it's been leaked and traded.

    Who else is in the room counting with Brady? And have they the discipline to hand in and switch off their phones?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295

    I don't think we will get that report until the autumn so there is time to ponder that.

    But I believe that they propose a penalty and the whole house votes on it. It can be a suspension for a given number of days or even weeks or it could be expulsion.

    I also believe that a suspension can also trigger a recall petition if it is over a certain length of time. But I am not sure of the thresholds.
    Haha a recall on Johnson would be wonderful fun.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,521

    Love Island is starting.

    Lots of coming men around then.

    Unlike in the Conservative Party.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,619

    Or racist black smoke?
    Black Smoke matters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    edited June 2022

    I don't think we will get that report until the autumn so there is time to ponder that.

    But I believe that they propose a penalty and the whole house votes on it. It can be a suspension for a given number of days or even weeks or it could be expulsion.

    I also believe that a suspension can also trigger a recall petition if it is over a certain length of time. But I am not sure of the thresholds.
    Suspension from the House of at least 10 sitting days or 14 calendar days, following a report by the Committee on Standards;
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recall_of_MPs_Act_2015#Recall_procedure

    At least they've closed the Rob Roberts loophole.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,517
    kle4 said:

    Nadine Dorries has a majority of 24k. Yes it's weigh the Blue votes territory, but she also gives them what they want.
    If she thinks that is safe she has not been following modern politics.

  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,105

    I told you then. And I tell you now.

    Boris is going nowhere.

    Really? Goodbye conservatives
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,396
    Some very long faces on supporters of @BorisJohnson after poll closed. One PM ally said of Tory MPs: They are a bunch of lying snakes. I don’t trust anything they say

    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533889858615255041
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,754

    Someone will have a sense by now - it doesn't take that long to count 360 votes with only two options - so it's possible it's been leaked and traded.

    Who else is in the room counting with Brady? And have they the discipline to hand in and switch off their phones?
    But it’s still at 10 and you can bet on the PM. If you knew for sure you’d bet the house on that overnight return.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    Forecast from Sam Freedman:

    198 confidence
    161 no confidence


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1533886825739206656?s=20&t=7C8ipWptuuMya06mcmGw-w
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,693
    Ladbrokes has suspended the market. I got on at 19/4, which I don’t really think is long enough.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,155
    geoffw said:

    It's a known unknown.

    Someone thinks it is a known known. Although it is back to 9 now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548

    If she thinks that is safe she has not been following modern politics.

    Despite some unusual churn, and Scotland since 2015, I'd not be surprised if the number of safe seats remains very high.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,619

    Love Island is starting.

    The show has attracted some criticism for lack of body positivity role models from a former contestant

    https://www.digitalspy.com/tv/reality-tv/a40156942/love-island-2022-cast-criticised-body-diversity/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,288
    The PM ally briefing is a win by one is a win.

    Not exactly expecting a clear result.
    biggles said:

    But it’s still at 10 and you can bet on the PM. If you knew for sure you’d bet the house on that overnight return.
    There's nearly a million quid matched too so most of it must be public trading.

    I'm not convinced it's informed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,521
    edited June 2022

    Forecast from Sam Freedman:

    198 confidence
    161 no confidence


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1533886825739206656?s=20&t=7C8ipWptuuMya06mcmGw-w

    If Sam Freedman is as accurate as he usually is, Johnson to lose by 50.

    Edit - Johnson won't, btw.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,105

    I told you then. And I tell you now.

    Boris is going nowhere.

    Really? Goodbye conservatives
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548

    Some very long faces on supporters of @BorisJohnson after poll closed. One PM ally said of Tory MPs: They are a bunch of lying snakes. I don’t trust anything they say

    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533889858615255041

    As pets (are said to) resemble their owner, so a party resembles its leader.
  • .

    Someone thinks it is a known known. Although it is back to 9 now.
    Or someone thinks they can get a profit in a few hours time on what they think is probably certain.

    Lets not forget the market after the polls closed on Referendum night. What odds did No go out to at one point? Wasn't it about 11 or 12 until the results started coming back in?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072
    kle4 said:

    Nadine Dorries has a majority of 24k. Yes it's weigh the Blue votes territory, but she also gives them what they want.
    😮 .
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,288

    Forecast from Sam Freedman:

    198 confidence
    161 no confidence


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1533886825739206656?s=20&t=7C8ipWptuuMya06mcmGw-w

    He's had to make a shed load of assumptions, which he himself admits, in arriving at thosd figures.

    If it's off by 20 (less than 6%) then he's gone.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,326
    Delish!





  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    Taz said:

    The show has attracted some criticism for lack of body positivity role models from a former contestant

    https://www.digitalspy.com/tv/reality-tv/a40156942/love-island-2022-cast-criticised-body-diversity/
    Not a watcher myself, but even in realistic dramas you tend to see portrayals of everyday life, only by people better looking and more charismatic than normal people, god forbid.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,521
    Chris said:

    Boris Johnson allies complaining about lying snakes? Has their sense of irony been surgically removed?
    His personal magnetism has extracted all the irony from them.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,415
    edited June 2022

    Yes, but he was LoTO not PM, so he didn't need to have the confidence of the House.
    So long as he controls the whip of a majority of MPs he has the confidence of the House, however they vote tonight.

    If MPs want him gone, they need to vote him out, or failing that resign the whip, not take a short cut.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979
    Interesting comment from Petronella Wyatt who, I think, has some previous with Boris.

    https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1533878793680609280

    "Interestingly, political memoirs all say that John Major had decided to resign if he got less than two thirds of the vote. Mrs May had fewer scruples, and Boris has never heard of the word."
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254

    Delish!





    Love the lack of self awareness and irony!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,207
    Taz said:

    The show has attracted some criticism for lack of body positivity role models from a former contestant

    https://www.digitalspy.com/tv/reality-tv/a40156942/love-island-2022-cast-criticised-body-diversity/
    Is it too late for the Walrus of Lurve to get on board after tonight's vote?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637

    Love Island is starting.

    Gove Island?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,517

    Love the lack of self awareness and irony!
    BF has No out at 11 now though
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,517

    Gove Island?
    Has anyone heard from him today?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,013

    Really? Goodbye conservatives
    Conservatives only 4% behind with Redfield today

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1533844966115622914?s=20&t=r4S41UL-AntxbLdyjWMqnw
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254

    The PM ally briefing is a win by one is a win.

    Not exactly expecting a clear result.

    There's nearly a million quid matched too so most of it must be public trading.

    I'm not convinced it's informed.
    MPs had just eight hours notice before voting. A bit disappointing if they were using that time to canvas for betting profits, especially as I doubt many of them trust a word that their colleagues say anyway.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,207
    ydoethur said:

    His personal magnetism has extracted all the irony from them.
    They have to steel themselves for the result.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,105
    HYUFD said:

    Conservatives only 4% behind with Redfield today

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1533844966115622914?s=20&t=r4S41UL-AntxbLdyjWMqnw
    Ah - all forgiven. Boris is our man!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    Alistair said:

    I think the counting should be done in public. The votes randomly draw out of the hat and counted. Bit like Eurovision.

    Nah, they could draw them out using hot and cold numbered balls a la the FA and UEFA cup draws.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,521
    edited June 2022
    Foxy said:

    They have to steel themselves for the result.
    Can the rebels get to 140? If they can I think Johnson is still fatally damaged and will have to resign this month.

    But equally, they should have forced him out six months ago and didn't. Nobody has got rich betting on this lot doing the decent or even the sensible thing.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254

    BF has No out at 11 now though
    Omens for Sunak......
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    Alistair said:

    I think the counting should be done in public. The votes randomly draw out of the hat and counted. Bit like Eurovision.

    As it's the Tories they could sell the TV rights for some profit.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,637
    HYUFD said:

    Conservatives only 4% behind with Redfield today

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1533844966115622914?s=20&t=r4S41UL-AntxbLdyjWMqnw
    SIX MONTHS since the last Tory poll lead - also Redfield und Wilton (6th December).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    If Boris stays, some people have a long way to row back from their public comments.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
     

    SIX MONTHS since the last Tory poll lead - also Redfield und Wilton (6th December).
    Are we now part of the Reich?

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072

    SIX MONTHS since the last Tory poll lead - also Redfield und Wilton (6th December).
    There was a Kantor tie.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,759
    The longer the announcement takes the more likely no has won?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,517
    No is now back at 8.8

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254

    I am loving the (for me) low stakes drama of this evening. As a Labour supporter I don't think any of the potential results tonight would be bad. Tories fighting like rats in a sack = happiness. Time for a herbal tea, some homemade shortbread left over from Platty Jubes, and a bit of Borgen!

    PM Priti winning an increased majority on her death to cop killers and foxes 24 agenda says hello.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    I am loving the (for me) low stakes drama of this evening. As a Labour supporter I don't think any of the potential results tonight would be bad. Tories fighting like rats in a sack = happiness. Time for a herbal tea, some homemade shortbread left over from Platty Jubes, and a bit of Borgen!

    Ditto from this SNP member. Except I’m watching the king and the national day celebrations.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    Jonathan said:

    If Boris stays, some people have a long way to row back from their public comments.

    If Boris stays, it's only temporary.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    Tick-tock. Come on get on with it Brady!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,136

    The longer the announcement takes the more likely no has won?

    Thought it was fixed at 9pm?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,155
    The curse of Jeremy [C]Hunt strikes again
    https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1533893262762967040
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,288

    No is now back at 8.8

    I topped up at 11.5
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295

    The longer the announcement takes the more likely no has won?

    No rush. Take your time Brady!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    If Boris stays, it's only temporary.
    So true it's a truism.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    If Boris stays, it's only temporary.
    Not sure Boris agrees, if he wins no one can shift him.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,103

    The longer the announcement takes the more likely no has won?

    Brady is apparently promising 9pm dead.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2022
    I’m amazed there’s any liquidity in the market.

    The people betting on this right now, unless they are very well connected, are fools.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,136
    I presume there is a huge spike in visitors to the site on evenings like this? If so, hello! Try posting, it's fun.

    Been busy this evening so disappointed to have missed out on some good odds - probably not worth it now given someone will know something by now.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Boris confident of victory, according to BBC’s Nick Eardley.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,105
    Surely Brady knows the result by now..
This discussion has been closed.