Today's highlight, without a doubt, has been @david_herdson (for whom I would vote were I a Wakefield constituent and who I hope kicks the Conservatives down to third place) demolishing that fatuous waste of space Julia Hartley-Brewer.
I've just watched the meeting of three icons for the fifth time - the Queen, Paddington and a marmalade sandwich.
That's the Platinum Jubilee for me - you can forget the rest.
By the way anyone using the term "Platty Joobs" should be eviscerated and then ritually disembowelled before being sent to canvass for the Conservatives in East Ham for the next 200 years.
No one with a scintilla of class would collaborate in such a debasement of the English language. I'm told that should include PB sub-editors.
I read a suggestion on twatter that both 'Her Maj' and Paddington were CGI images in that spendid video (!)
Incidentally, I'd normally expect the unwavering support of a Cabinet of big hitters to benefit a PM who is being challenged.
Absolutely baffled as to why this Cabinet's support doesn't seem to be helping Boris at all.
Because there are no longer "big beasts" in the Cabinet with their own followers who can be relied upon. We have moved on from that to a Presidential system where the Cabinet are all placemen who can give no more votes than their own. This is not a criticism in particular of the current cabinet, by the end of the Blair/Brown government it was the same. Our politics just doesn't seem to have the same characters or people who represent a certain constituency in the party anymore. It has not been a positive development.
Oh gosh, I was being sarcastic - thought that was obvious. I think what you say is considerably worse in the present government than under May or any of her predecessor, however. It really is a Cabinet of none of the talents (or few, being generous).
Sorry, didn't pick up on the sarcasm. It is an increasing trend so inevitably the current cabinet shows the trend most strongly. I do not think this trend will reverse anytime soon under anyone.
Today's highlight, without a doubt, has been @david_herdson (for whom I would vote were I a Wakefield constituent and who I hope kicks the Conservatives down to third place) demolishing that fatuous waste of space Julia Hartley-Brewer.
I hope all the Tory MPs defending Boris lose their seats
Most of them will.
Labour need not even campaign.
Just print ten million leaflets with that photo of Queen alone at her husband's funeral and then spend the rest of campaign in the Red Lion deciding on cabinet.
I want him out, I've bet on him losing, but rules are rules. If he loses a majority, then that should draw a line under his premiership and we should move on. If he wins a majority then that should draw a line under it and we should move on.
50%+1 is a majority and that applies to either side. If MPs don't like that, they should vote accordingly or change the rules, not bitch about losing like Rees Mogg did last time. I was gutted May survived her Confidence vote but accepted the fact she'd won it and thought Rees Mogg was an idiot for suggesting otherwise. Same principle applies today.
But a confidence vote is not like a vote on what to do. It's not viable to function if you've lost the confidence of, say, 45% of your MPs.
Then the rules should say so. They don't.
The threshold is the threshold and that has to be respected, that's democratic. Whinging about it makes you no better than Rees Mogg last time.
Nah it's not just about the raw numbers BR.
He needs to command the confidence of his own members of parliament. That isn't about 50.1% vs 49.9%.
His own Members of Parliament have agreed a system to collectively resolve this issue by 50.1% vs 49.9%, that is what they agreed to stand by.
If he wins by 50.1% then his own MPs if they really can't stand the result can resign the whip, or defect to another party. If they don't, he still has the majority of the House, just as May did even though I didn't like the result.
I get your argument. But it's difficult to command a House of Commons of 650 MPs when only 180 of them have explicitly backed you.
Perhaps but at least it won't be like the Labour Party where 80% of MPs voted against their leader, but he remained in office for over three more years and two General Election defeats.
Yes, but he was LoTO not PM, so he didn't need to have the confidence of the House.
A question for the constitutional and procedural experts. Say BJ survives tonight but the Privileges Committee’s report on him is highly critical. What is the process for triggering a vote on suspending or expelling him from the House? And what would be the consequences of such a motion being passed. It would only take 40 highly principled Tories to make that happen.
Today's highlight, without a doubt, has been @david_herdson (for whom I would vote were I a Wakefield constituent and who I hope kicks the Conservatives down to third place) demolishing that fatuous waste of space Julia Hartley-Brewer.
Kudos, sir.
Where was that?
A tweet a couple of hours ago. Hartley-Brewer pontificated on the kind of Prime Minister for whom she would vote and was rightly put in her place by David.
Today's highlight, without a doubt, has been @david_herdson (for whom I would vote were I a Wakefield constituent and who I hope kicks the Conservatives down to third place) demolishing that fatuous waste of space Julia Hartley-Brewer.
A question for the constitutional and procedural experts. Say BJ survives tonight but the Privileges Committee’s report on him is highly critical. What is the process for triggering a vote on suspending or expelling him from the House? And what would be the consequences of such a motion being passed. It would only take 40 highly principled Tories to make that happen.
I believe that censure gets proposed as a motion and then voted on. I suppose the government could make it a matter of confidence but on the scenario where he won but not by much I'd love to see them enforce that.
There's an odd amount of unanimity in Tory circles about what is going to happen today. The precise numbers people are speculating about do vary, but there is a general sense that Boris Johnson will win this vote yet not by enough to put the leadership question to bed. The rebels, many of whom have now burnt their boats on the beach, will keep coming and everything will be about if not when the 1922 committee will change the rules to allow another vote.
There's an odd amount of unanimity in Tory circles about what is going to happen today. The precise numbers people are speculating about do vary, but there is a general sense that Boris Johnson will win this vote yet not by enough to put the leadership question to bed. The rebels, many of whom have now burnt their boats on the beach, will keep coming and everything will be about if not when the 1922 committee will change the rules to allow another vote.
A question for the constitutional and procedural experts. Say BJ survives tonight but the Privileges Committee’s report on him is highly critical. What is the process for triggering a vote on suspending or expelling him from the House? And what would be the consequences of such a motion being passed. It would only take 40 highly principled Tories to make that happen.
I don't think we will get that report until the autumn so there is time to ponder that.
But I believe that they propose a penalty and the whole house votes on it. It can be a suspension for a given number of days or even weeks or it could be expulsion.
I also believe that a suspension can also trigger a recall petition if it is over a certain length of time. But I am not sure of the thresholds.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
I suspect that is aimed at me not dear old Big G wasn’t it?
I’ll answer it. If only 120 of 350 vote against him, how exactly do they force him out from there anytime soon? Just to have another vote they have to change the rules just to have another vote - the optics of that won’t be helpful, and even then he might win by the same again? How else do they apply pressure? How else do they force him out if can’t vote him out?
If 120 of 350 vote against him, then BJ is in the same position May was in 2019, and Major was in 1996-97; he's in power, but it is clear that his party is not with him.
And leaders, once the rot has started, rarely turn it around.
At what level of opposition does a win effectively become a non-win. 160 against? 170?
In my humble opinion but this is all just finger in the air stuff:
150+ - he won’t make it through to the summer recess.
120-150 - gone within 6 months.
100-120 won’t fight the next GE
anything below 100 - chance to actually turn it around. But no guarantee.
I think anything under 120 he will fight the general election, that figure is a clear Boris win.
Failing to have the confidence of 1/3rd of your own MPs would hardly constitute "a clear win"
On reflection, I’ve realised I was just too polite and easy on you about my earlier “there is Brexit at play here” post Heathener, so I am back to say you are UTTERLY WRONG. Brexit is in all things politics and government today.
Boris Brexit Deal isn’t just some thing which happened historically, it’s the very reality of governing the country today. It not just stymied this governments flexible and quick policy making, it will do for coming governments, regardless which party they are.
If you are the sort of politician not minded to say fuck business, then what more do you have for business leaders when they come to the meeting, unless you are willing to be more flexible with Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal than he is/can be. Other example, DUP keeping NI assembly closed because of the Brexit deal is not Boris Johnson’s conundrum to deal with for anyone who aspires to form a Westminster government, it’s their conundrum too. Likewise in terms of a Remainia and leaverstan in voting patterns, where when a by election comes up PB reaches for the 2016 vote chart, that hasn’t gone away at all, despite Boris promise to heal and move the nation on in 2019 - and how Brexit shapes votes is questions and work for both Labour and Tory if they wish big tents of voters for political power from now on.
A question for the constitutional and procedural experts. Say BJ survives tonight but the Privileges Committee’s report on him is highly critical. What is the process for triggering a vote on suspending or expelling him from the House? And what would be the consequences of such a motion being passed. It would only take 40 highly principled Tories to make that happen.
I don't think we will get that report until the autumn so there is time to ponder that.
But I believe that they propose a penalty and the whole house votes on it. It can be a suspension for a given number of days or even weeks or it could be expulsion.
I also believe that a suspension can also trigger a recall petition if it is over a certain length of time. But I am not sure of the thresholds.
A question for the constitutional and procedural experts. Say BJ survives tonight but the Privileges Committee’s report on him is highly critical. What is the process for triggering a vote on suspending or expelling him from the House? And what would be the consequences of such a motion being passed. It would only take 40 highly principled Tories to make that happen.
I don't think we will get that report until the autumn so there is time to ponder that.
But I believe that they propose a penalty and the whole house votes on it. It can be a suspension for a given number of days or even weeks or it could be expulsion.
I also believe that a suspension can also trigger a recall petition if it is over a certain length of time. But I am not sure of the thresholds.
Some very long faces on supporters of @BorisJohnson after poll closed. One PM ally said of Tory MPs: They are a bunch of lying snakes. I don’t trust anything they say
Some very long faces on supporters of @BorisJohnson after poll closed. One PM ally said of Tory MPs: They are a bunch of lying snakes. I don’t trust anything they say
Some very long faces on supporters of @BorisJohnson after poll closed. One PM ally said of Tory MPs: They are a bunch of lying snakes. I don’t trust anything they say
Someone thinks it is a known known. Although it is back to 9 now.
Or someone thinks they can get a profit in a few hours time on what they think is probably certain.
Lets not forget the market after the polls closed on Referendum night. What odds did No go out to at one point? Wasn't it about 11 or 12 until the results started coming back in?
Not a watcher myself, but even in realistic dramas you tend to see portrayals of everyday life, only by people better looking and more charismatic than normal people, god forbid.
Some very long faces on supporters of @BorisJohnson after poll closed. One PM ally said of Tory MPs: They are a bunch of lying snakes. I don’t trust anything they say
I want him out, I've bet on him losing, but rules are rules. If he loses a majority, then that should draw a line under his premiership and we should move on. If he wins a majority then that should draw a line under it and we should move on.
50%+1 is a majority and that applies to either side. If MPs don't like that, they should vote accordingly or change the rules, not bitch about losing like Rees Mogg did last time. I was gutted May survived her Confidence vote but accepted the fact she'd won it and thought Rees Mogg was an idiot for suggesting otherwise. Same principle applies today.
But a confidence vote is not like a vote on what to do. It's not viable to function if you've lost the confidence of, say, 45% of your MPs.
Then the rules should say so. They don't.
The threshold is the threshold and that has to be respected, that's democratic. Whinging about it makes you no better than Rees Mogg last time.
Nah it's not just about the raw numbers BR.
He needs to command the confidence of his own members of parliament. That isn't about 50.1% vs 49.9%.
His own Members of Parliament have agreed a system to collectively resolve this issue by 50.1% vs 49.9%, that is what they agreed to stand by.
If he wins by 50.1% then his own MPs if they really can't stand the result can resign the whip, or defect to another party. If they don't, he still has the majority of the House, just as May did even though I didn't like the result.
I get your argument. But it's difficult to command a House of Commons of 650 MPs when only 180 of them have explicitly backed you.
Perhaps but at least it won't be like the Labour Party where 80% of MPs voted against their leader, but he remained in office for over three more years and two General Election defeats.
Yes, but he was LoTO not PM, so he didn't need to have the confidence of the House.
So long as he controls the whip of a majority of MPs he has the confidence of the House, however they vote tonight.
If MPs want him gone, they need to vote him out, or failing that resign the whip, not take a short cut.
"Interestingly, political memoirs all say that John Major had decided to resign if he got less than two thirds of the vote. Mrs May had fewer scruples, and Boris has never heard of the word."
Someone will have a sense by now - it doesn't take that long to count 360 votes with only two options - so it's possible it's been leaked and traded.
Who else is in the room counting with Brady? And have they the discipline to hand in and switch off their phones?
But it’s still at 10 and you can bet on the PM. If you knew for sure you’d bet the house on that overnight return.
There's nearly a million quid matched too so most of it must be public trading.
I'm not convinced it's informed.
MPs had just eight hours notice before voting. A bit disappointing if they were using that time to canvas for betting profits, especially as I doubt many of them trust a word that their colleagues say anyway.....
Some very long faces on supporters of @BorisJohnson after poll closed. One PM ally said of Tory MPs: They are a bunch of lying snakes. I don’t trust anything they say
Some very long faces on supporters of @BorisJohnson after poll closed. One PM ally said of Tory MPs: They are a bunch of lying snakes. I don’t trust anything they say
Boris Johnson allies complaining about lying snakes? Has their sense of irony been surgically removed?
His personal magnetism has extracted all the irony from them.
They have to steel themselves for the result.
Can the rebels get to 140? If they can I think Johnson is still fatally damaged and will have to resign this month.
But equally, they should have forced him out six months ago and didn't. Nobody has got rich betting on this lot doing the decent or even the sensible thing.
I am loving the (for me) low stakes drama of this evening. As a Labour supporter I don't think any of the potential results tonight would be bad. Tories fighting like rats in a sack = happiness. Time for a herbal tea, some homemade shortbread left over from Platty Jubes, and a bit of Borgen!
I am loving the (for me) low stakes drama of this evening. As a Labour supporter I don't think any of the potential results tonight would be bad. Tories fighting like rats in a sack = happiness. Time for a herbal tea, some homemade shortbread left over from Platty Jubes, and a bit of Borgen!
PM Priti winning an increased majority on her death to cop killers and foxes 24 agenda says hello.
I am loving the (for me) low stakes drama of this evening. As a Labour supporter I don't think any of the potential results tonight would be bad. Tories fighting like rats in a sack = happiness. Time for a herbal tea, some homemade shortbread left over from Platty Jubes, and a bit of Borgen!
Ditto from this SNP member. Except I’m watching the king and the national day celebrations.
Comments
Kudos, sir.
Tell me it ain't so!
Surely Paddington at least was real?
Labour need not even campaign.
Just print ten million leaflets with that photo of Queen alone at her husband's funeral and then spend the rest of campaign in the Red Lion deciding on cabinet.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/tonight-won-t-end-the-tory-leadership-question
Some very long faces on supporters of
@BorisJohnson after poll closed. One PM ally said of Tory MPs: They are a bunch of lying snakes. I don’t trust anything they say..
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533889858615255041
He really has surrounded himself with idiots.
Boris is going nowhere.
But I believe that they propose a penalty and the whole house votes on it. It can be a suspension for a given number of days or even weeks or it could be expulsion.
I also believe that a suspension can also trigger a recall petition if it is over a certain length of time. But I am not sure of the thresholds.
Boris Brexit Deal isn’t just some thing which happened historically, it’s the very reality of governing the country today. It not just stymied this governments flexible and quick policy making, it will do for coming governments, regardless which party they are.
If you are the sort of politician not minded to say fuck business, then what more do you have for business leaders when they come to the meeting, unless you are willing to be more flexible with Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal than he is/can be. Other example, DUP keeping NI assembly closed because of the Brexit deal is not Boris Johnson’s conundrum to deal with for anyone who aspires to form a Westminster government, it’s their conundrum too. Likewise in terms of a Remainia and leaverstan in voting patterns, where when a by election comes up PB reaches for the 2016 vote chart, that hasn’t gone away at all, despite Boris promise to heal and move the nation on in 2019 - and how Brexit shapes votes is questions and work for both Labour and Tory if they wish big tents of voters for political power from now on.
Who else is in the room counting with Brady? And have they the discipline to hand in and switch off their phones?
Unlike in the Conservative Party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recall_of_MPs_Act_2015#Recall_procedure
At least they've closed the Rob Roberts loophole.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533889858615255041
198 confidence
161 no confidence
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1533886825739206656?s=20&t=7C8ipWptuuMya06mcmGw-w
https://www.digitalspy.com/tv/reality-tv/a40156942/love-island-2022-cast-criticised-body-diversity/
Not exactly expecting a clear result. There's nearly a million quid matched too so most of it must be public trading.
I'm not convinced it's informed.
Edit - Johnson won't, btw.
Lets not forget the market after the polls closed on Referendum night. What odds did No go out to at one point? Wasn't it about 11 or 12 until the results started coming back in?
If it's off by 20 (less than 6%) then he's gone.
If MPs want him gone, they need to vote him out, or failing that resign the whip, not take a short cut.
https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1533878793680609280
"Interestingly, political memoirs all say that John Major had decided to resign if he got less than two thirds of the vote. Mrs May had fewer scruples, and Boris has never heard of the word."
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1533844966115622914?s=20&t=r4S41UL-AntxbLdyjWMqnw
But equally, they should have forced him out six months ago and didn't. Nobody has got rich betting on this lot doing the decent or even the sensible thing.
https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1533893262762967040
The people betting on this right now, unless they are very well connected, are fools.
Been busy this evening so disappointed to have missed out on some good odds - probably not worth it now given someone will know something by now.