You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.
But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.
Absolute sense from Mr H
Not really. You can argue that individuals should be free to say what they like but that the state, in the form of state schools, shouldn't be pushing one side of the culture wars.
You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.
But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.
Absolute sense from Mr H
If she were advocating for compulsory Critical Thinking education, I would be in support. We should absolutely be teaching kids of all ages how to think not what to think.
We were talking about that at dinner last night. My son was moved to private school in L3. He was pals with the boy next door who was in the same year. In L5 Uwais, the boy next door, told him that at Golden time he had drawn a picture of a car. My son was perplexed, he said that is when we do critical thinking. The gap in teaching, what was demanded of the kids and the curriculum was just night and day.
"Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"
Bruce Anderson (Reaction)
Shit like that is completely out of order and makes me want to support Boris again. FFS
Yes, you're desperately trying to find some external stimulus to excuse you swinging back behind Big Dog. Your heart's still with him.
Actually, it’s not. I despise many of the people attacking him. And I REALLY mean despise. Awful people. C*nts. Remoaners. 2nd voters like Starmer. Scot Nats. The very dregs of the swill, of the uttermost vomit of the earth.
UGH
And yet, I’ve now had THREE large gins in Tbilisi and…. To be honest… I am finding it hard to work up a head of steam in terms of an argument as to why Boris should stay. There just isn’t one, really. OK his worst enemies are vile. But, what are the positives?? Why vote BORIS?
Yeah, you can't find the arguments because your head knows he has to go. But you want him. You want him to stay. The heart has its reasons.
.. of which reason knows nothing
God bless Pascal. A superb insight, superbly phrased
Yeah this time my head says Nah, Boris has to go and all my heart can do is beat ominously and point a ventricle at Jolyon Maugham and the Lib Dems and Sir Beer Korma. It’s not enough. They are scum but it’s not enough. The country needs a better government. That’s the reason I voted Brexit, FFS, so we could choose better governments, which make ALL the crucial decisions
So. (Bravely) assuming that those tweets turn into votes...
Johnson needs another 50 shy votes for a bare win that buys him (at most) another year. Ideally he needs another 100 + votes for a 2:1 win that might be semi-convincing.
It could be that there are a lot of Boris backers that don't want to advertise the fact. After all, would you? But it's an awfully big gap to close.
Is it bad form to abstain?
I don't think there were any abstentions in 2018 or 2003. Let's face it, if you are an MP and you don't have an opinion on your leader in a yes/no secret ballot, what exactly are you for? (Abstentions made more sense under the old stalking horse rules, I guess).
A great tower is being felled in Mordor. By a team of incel hobbits. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the bruised sky will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times. Nine for mortal men doomed to die.
You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.
But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.
Absolute sense from Mr H
If she were advocating for compulsory Critical Thinking education, I would be in support. We should absolutely be teaching kids of all ages how to think not what to think.
I think it's fairly obvious that she wants to teach kids fairy-tale pablum about how great the Empire was, blah blah. Getting kids to engage in what some call "woke nonsense" is much more likely to lead to critical thinking.
"They are still in the pocket of the union barons. They want to keep us locked into EU regulations and though they may live in great stuccoed townhouses in north London they deplore the dream of home ownership for everyone but themselves"
Boris Johnson there, famously not from the metropolitan elite
A great oak is being felled in the forest. By a team of incel dwarves. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the canopy will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times
An amusing turn of phrase, but if you are referring to Johnson I think he might be better described as an overgrown Leylandii. Out of control, shallow routed and blocking out the light while sapping all the nutrient from the soil. The sooner the dwarfs get their axes aligned the better. They would be wise not to plant one of his species ever again.
How about Japanese Knotweed?
That would be infinitely more depressing as it is very difficult to extinguish. That said, thinking of Johnson as a an infuriating notifiable weed does seem to some up much of his personality.
"They are still in the pocket of the union barons. They want to keep us locked into EU regulations and though they may live in great stuccoed townhouses in north London they deplore the dream of home ownership for everyone but themselves"
Boris Johnson there, famously not from the metropolitan elite
From it but not for it.
Quite what Labour has to do with his leadership qualities though I am not sure.
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson.
Agree! He wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes with Mrs Thatcher... I was musing the other day that HMQ started with Churchill and may end with Boris (actually it looks Boris won't be her last PM)
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson.
Agree! He wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes with Mrs Thatcher... I was musing the other day the HMQ started with Churchill and may end with Boris (actually it looks Boris won't be her last PM)
So he only needs about 1 in 5 of those who are undeclared to break his way. Very achievable.
I don’t understand why there would be any “shy Boris voters” amongst MPs.
If you are too worried about publicly declaring for Boris then clearly you accept that he’s a liability for your future electoral prospects and so would not vote for him to stay.
If you think he is the answer and is best for the country then surely you would say so.
So will be interesting to see how many undeclared actually do break for him.
Surely they are just hedging their bets, on the basis that he may lose. If he wins, he's hardly going to be in a position to penalise people who didn't publicly declare for him. But a new leader might penalise them for backing him.
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson.
Agree! He wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes with Mrs Thatcher... I was musing the other day the HMQ started with Churchill and may end with Boris (actually it looks Boris won't be her last PM)
What went wrong in the interim?
Brexit
They'd been going downhill for a while... Major? Brown??? Dave?
You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.
But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.
Absolute sense from Mr H
If she were advocating for compulsory Critical Thinking education, I would be in support. We should absolutely be teaching kids of all ages how to think not what to think.
I think it's fairly obvious that she wants to teach kids fairy-tale pablum about how great the Empire was, blah blah. Getting kids to engage in what some call "woke nonsense" is much more likely to lead to critical thinking.
A great oak is being felled in the forest. By a team of incel dwarves. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the canopy will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times
An amusing turn of phrase, but if you are referring to Johnson I think he might be better described as an overgrown Leylandii. Out of control, shallow routed and blocking out the light while sapping all the nutrient from the soil. The sooner the dwarfs get their axes aligned the better. They would be wise not to plant one of his species ever again.
How about Japanese Knotweed?
Bloody hell, I hope he's easier to get rid of than Japanese knotweed!
Not surprised, I have not seen any Scottish Conservative MPs apart from Scotland Minister Alastair Jack come out in support of Boris today.
Crikey is Jack still alive, he must have the cushiest job in the world, 250K in his pocket a year for nothing. At least we hear Ross making a right tit of himself now and again.
A thought experiment. If, instead of Tory MPs, the VONC was restricted to former Party Leaders, how would Boris fare.
So we have:
Sir John Major Lord Hague Sir Iain Duncan Smith Lord Howard David Cameron Theresa May
Would BJ get a single vote?
Telling.
How many of those ever supported him though? IDS was in the fan club, Major definitely not, Cameron and May cautioned against him from before the start. Not sure on Hague and Howard.
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson.
Agree! He wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes with Mrs Thatcher... I was musing the other day the HMQ started with Churchill and may end with Boris (actually it looks Boris won't be her last PM)
What went wrong in the interim?
Thatcher and Blair, mainly.
Thatcher herself tended to be a fairly straightforward person (though not immune to spinning like a top when it suited her) but her time at the top bred a class of politician and ruling elite who were very happy to feather their nests and look down on the common folk, thank you very much.
Blair just took PR politics to the next level and probably did as much as anyone to completely devalue the truth in politics. Without Blair, there would be no Johnson. What I will give some credit to Blair for, is that he did have a vision and a purpose. Which you couldn’t say for Boris.
"Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"
Bruce Anderson (Reaction)
Shit like that is completely out of order and makes me want to support Boris again. FFS
Yes, you're desperately trying to find some external stimulus to excuse you swinging back behind Big Dog. Your heart's still with him.
Actually, it’s not. I despise many of the people attacking him. And I REALLY mean despise. Awful people. C*nts. Remoaners. 2nd voters like Starmer. Scot Nats. The very dregs of the swill, of the uttermost vomit of the earth.
UGH
And yet, I’ve now had THREE large gins in Tbilisi and…. To be honest… I am finding it hard to work up a head of steam in terms of an argument as to why Boris should stay. There just isn’t one, really. OK his worst enemies are vile. But, what are the positives?? Why vote BORIS?
Yeah, you can't find the arguments because your head knows he has to go. But you want him. You want him to stay. The heart has its reasons.
.. of which reason knows nothing
God bless Pascal. A superb insight, superbly phrased
Yeah this time my head says Nah, Boris has to go and all my heart can do is beat ominously and point a ventricle at Jolyon Maugham and the Lib Dems and Sir Beer Korma. It’s not enough. They are scum but it’s not enough. The country needs a better government. That’s the reason I voted Brexit, FFS, so we could choose better governments, which make ALL the crucial decisions
Sorry, Boris, my old boss. This is it
"That’s the reason I voted Brexit, FFS, so we could choose better governments, which make ALL the crucial decisions". 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
The slight problem is that the Brexiteer movement comes from the most braindead end of the Conservative movement 🤣🤣. It is like Magdalene College Cambridge having to choose it's next University Challenge Team from the Land Economy department.
My prediction: Johnson wins, there are between 100 and 120 votes against. His loyalists will declare that the issue is closed. Within two weeks it will all start again.
Just watching the highlights of day 3 of the test, brilliant game but the flaws in English batting plain for all to see. Nothing useful from 1-3 and some pretty ordinary dismissals. Beligerence from YJB but really not what the situation required. Stokes a total stroke of luck on the NB and some very ordinary batting. Root, just magnificent, a totally different class.
Root is astonishingly good, and we have been lucky to watch him for years. Avoiding injury, I don't think he will do a Cook, so may be around for a good while yet and will smash Cookie's test runs total. I get the sense he will carry on as long as he can - as he said - he just loves batting.
You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.
But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.
Absolute sense from Mr H
If she were advocating for compulsory Critical Thinking education, I would be in support. We should absolutely be teaching kids of all ages how to think not what to think.
I think it's fairly obvious that she wants to teach kids fairy-tale pablum about how great the Empire was, blah blah. Getting kids to engage in what some call "woke nonsense" is much more likely to lead to critical thinking.
Not if you teach it properly.
Teaching the Empire was great is incompatible with teaching critical thinking. Those complaining about "woke nonsense" in schools are those who struggle with the idea that what they were taught in school could in any way require updating. They're the least receptive to ideas of critical thinking. Critical thinking requires kids to consider challenging the orthodoxy.
A thought experiment. If, instead of Tory MPs, the VONC was restricted to former Party Leaders, how would Boris fare.
So we have:
Sir John Major Lord Hague Sir Iain Duncan Smith Lord Howard David Cameron Theresa May
Would BJ get a single vote?
Telling.
Absolutely. I’d vote for Boris over Major, IDS, and TMay, for sure. All of them twats. Major is one of the reasons for Brexit, and he is still at it. Fuckwit
Dunno about Cameron and Howard. Close call
Hague is the real missed opportunity. A super bright guy, very charming, articulate, humane, sensitive. Could have been a splendid prime minister, but made his pitch at precisely the wrong moment
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson.
Agree! He wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes with Mrs Thatcher... I was musing the other day that HMQ started with Churchill and may end with Boris (actually it looks Boris won't be her last PM)
What went wrong in the interim?
Why are you still defending him then? Even if you once supported him, there is no harm in admitting a mistake, and realising change must take place. He is a disaster for his party (of which I used to be a member and activist) and the country
My prediction: Johnson wins, there are between 100 and 120 votes against. His loyalists will declare that the issue is closed. Within two weeks it will all start again.
An MP who votes for Johnson today but says "if they'd waited until after Tiverton, I might have voted against him" is also an MP who would've said after the Tiverton defeat "if they'd waited until the Privileges Committee Report, I might have voted against him". And so on. https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1533727534940049408?cxt=HHwWgMCy5aTE8sgqAAAA
You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.
But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.
Absolute sense from Mr H
If she were advocating for compulsory Critical Thinking education, I would be in support. We should absolutely be teaching kids of all ages how to think not what to think.
I think it's fairly obvious that she wants to teach kids fairy-tale pablum about how great the Empire was, blah blah. Getting kids to engage in what some call "woke nonsense" is much more likely to lead to critical thinking.
Not if you teach it properly.
Teaching the Empire was great is incompatible with teaching critical thinking. Those complaining about "woke nonsense" in schools are those who struggle with the idea that what they were taught in school could in any way require updating. They're the least receptive to ideas of critical thinking. Critical thinking requires kids to consider challenging the orthodoxy.
I agree.
But that also includes the new orthodoxy which, at present, is dominating debate in too many spheres.
But now is not the time for that discussion. I need to get the popcorn ready for 9pm
"Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"
Bruce Anderson (Reaction)
Shit like that is completely out of order and makes me want to support Boris again. FFS
Yes, you're desperately trying to find some external stimulus to excuse you swinging back behind Big Dog. Your heart's still with him.
Actually, it’s not. I despise many of the people attacking him. And I REALLY mean despise. Awful people. C*nts. Remoaners. 2nd voters like Starmer. Scot Nats. The very dregs of the swill, of the uttermost vomit of the earth.
UGH
And yet, I’ve now had THREE large gins in Tbilisi and…. To be honest… I am finding it hard to work up a head of steam in terms of an argument as to why Boris should stay. There just isn’t one, really. OK his worst enemies are vile. But, what are the positives?? Why vote BORIS?
Yeah, you can't find the arguments because your head knows he has to go. But you want him. You want him to stay. The heart has its reasons.
.. of which reason knows nothing
God bless Pascal. A superb insight, superbly phrased
Yeah this time my head says Nah, Boris has to go and all my heart can do is beat ominously and point a ventricle at Jolyon Maugham and the Lib Dems and Sir Beer Korma. It’s not enough. They are scum but it’s not enough. The country needs a better government. That’s the reason I voted Brexit, FFS, so we could choose better governments, which make ALL the crucial decisions
Sorry, Boris, my old boss. This is it
"That’s the reason I voted Brexit, FFS, so we could choose better governments, which make ALL the crucial decisions". 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
The slight problem is that the Brexiteer movement comes from the most braindead end of the Conservative movement 🤣🤣. It is like Magdalene College Cambridge having to choose it's next University Challenge Team from the Land Economy department.
Emojis do not become you, as mourning did not flatter Electra. That is all I can say
Thatcher herself tended to be a fairly straightforward person (though not immune to spinning like a top when it suited her) but her time at the top bred a class of politician and ruling elite who were very happy to feather their nests and look down on the common folk, thank you very much.
Blair just took PR politics to the next level and probably did as much as anyone to completely devalue the truth in politics. Without Blair, there would be no Johnson. What I will give some credit to Blair for, is that he did have a vision and a purpose. Which you couldn’t say for Boris.
The one thing they had in common was longevity. I suspect deep down Boris fancied a decade and a half in No.10.
Perhaps there's an argument for a term limit for Prime Ministers
In fairness to Douglas Ross he has stuck his neck out here. If Boris survives he has to resign. He could have just voted out quietly in a secret ballot but he hasn't. I think most of the other Scottish MPs will follow him on this. In fact, I become more and more convinced that Boris is going to lose this. Close, but I think he loses. A convicted liar as PM just will not do.
I have considerable trepdiation about what comes next.
A thought experiment. If, instead of Tory MPs, the VONC was restricted to former Party Leaders, how would Boris fare.
So we have:
Sir John Major Lord Hague Sir Iain Duncan Smith Lord Howard David Cameron Theresa May
Would BJ get a single vote?
Telling.
Absolutely. I’d vote for Boris over Major, IDS, and TMay, for sure. All of them twats. Major is one of the reasons for Brexit, and he is still at it. Fuckwit
Dunno about Cameron and Howard. Close call
Hague is the real missed opportunity. A super bright guy, very charming, articulate, humane, sensitive. Could have been a splendid prime minister, but made his pitch at precisely the wrong moment
I’d certainly go for Hague over Boris
I fear I have misconstrued this hypothetical, but I have misconstrued a hypothetical that was enormously boring, and made it better by mistake, so I shall not repine
A thought experiment. If, instead of Tory MPs, the VONC was restricted to former Party Leaders, how would Boris fare.
So we have:
Sir John Major Lord Hague Sir Iain Duncan Smith Lord Howard David Cameron Theresa May
Would BJ get a single vote?
Telling.
Absolutely. I’d vote for Boris over Major, IDS, and TMay, for sure. All of them twats. Major is one of the reasons for Brexit, and he is still at it. Fuckwit
Dunno about Cameron and Howard. Close call
Hague is the real missed opportunity. A super bright guy, very charming, articulate, humane, sensitive. Could have been a splendid prime minister, but made his pitch at precisely the wrong moment
I’d certainly go for Hague over Boris
I actually meant who of them would vote to keep BJ as PM.
But I agree with you about Hague. He could have been great. But it was a disastrous decision for him to stand as leader in 97. Should have stuck as Howard's number 2. I think I read that Tony Blair had a high regard for Hague personally speaking but had little time for IDS or Howard.
MY prediction for tonight is 242 for Boris and 117 against. It'll be nice for the two Conservative Deputy Speakers to cast a vote because they don't usually in the Commons.
A thought experiment. If, instead of Tory MPs, the VONC was restricted to former Party Leaders, how would Boris fare.
So we have:
Sir John Major Lord Hague Sir Iain Duncan Smith Lord Howard David Cameron Theresa May
Would BJ get a single vote?
Telling.
Absolutely. I’d vote for Boris over Major, IDS, and TMay, for sure. All of them twats. Major is one of the reasons for Brexit, and he is still at it. Fuckwit
Dunno about Cameron and Howard. Close call
Hague is the real missed opportunity. A super bright guy, very charming, articulate, humane, sensitive. Could have been a splendid prime minister, but made his pitch at precisely the wrong moment
I’d certainly go for Hague over Boris
How interesting! You imply that you are a former party leader? The premise is that the vote is restricted to those. Which of this list do we think is most likely to be masquerading as Leon?
A great oak is being felled in the forest. By a team of incel dwarves. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the canopy will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times
An amusing turn of phrase, but if you are referring to Johnson I think he might be better described as an overgrown Leylandii. Out of control, shallow routed and blocking out the light while sapping all the nutrient from the soil. The sooner the dwarfs get their axes aligned the better. They would be wise not to plant one of his species ever again.
How about Japanese Knotweed?
Bloody hell, I hope he's easier to get rid of than Japanese knotweed!
I had a close shave with the old knotweed in our garden in France. Noticed a clump of it in an overgrown area in 2015 and freaked out. I studied the various ways of attempting to remove it and concluded the only chance I had was to drown it repeatedly in glyphosate every chance I had, and then reapply it as soon as any new growth came through.
Wasn't hopeful, as the roadsides around there have quite a lot of it and despite municipal cutting, digging out and generous applications of glyphosate they always seem to survive and come back.
I was saved by - I think - being obsessively regular with my weedkiller applications, and an extremely hot and dry summer which probably saved the day. It disappeared and, to date, has never come back.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
I don't believe even Number Ten are that stupid because winning while being wounded does not equal being safe.
Describe unsafe to us Bondy.
120 or less against and he gets the summer and autumn if not the full year for a fight back.
145 or higher against him, how exactly do they prize him out in the coming months?
And between safe at 120 and badly wounded at 150 against, what number are you saying makes it 100% certain he is out this year?
I stand by what I put out there, the possibility that seeing the drip drip slide in the wrong direction in the last fortnight, and the two by elections on horizon, this Monday evenings vote was engineered by Number ten to take back control of the situation.
You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.
But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.
Absolute sense from Mr H
Not really. You can argue that individuals should be free to say what they like but that the state, in the form of state schools, shouldn't be pushing one side of the culture wars.
Yep. Mr H is completely wrong there. All the more so given that so much of the so called 'woke' agenda involves denying people freedom of speech based on the idea that we should not be allowed to say things that might hurt people's feelings. Wit that comment it appears that David Herdson has bought into the Newspeak mythology.
And that is in spite of the fact that, as a rule, J H-B is wrong in everything she says and does.
My prediction: Johnson wins, there are between 100 and 120 votes against. His loyalists will declare that the issue is closed. Within two weeks it will all start again.
It won't be two weeks - it will be immediate
That would require significant resignations in terms of either numbers or key individuals. I can't see either happening. Johnson picked his payroll well.
Apple just announced shared image libraries, where it can be based on things like who is in the photo.....e.g. you, your partner, your kids, all to you family shared library
I give it 10 seconds until photos are automatically being sent to that shared libary that are "embarrassing".
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson.
Agree! He wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes with Mrs Thatcher... I was musing the other day that HMQ started with Churchill and may end with Boris (actually it looks Boris won't be her last PM)
What went wrong in the interim?
Why are you still defending him then?
Someone has to?
I'm just not a fan of getting rid of PM's in the middle of a Parliament especially when they've been elected with such a strong endorsement.
The British people elected him (with a histrionically very large majority and share of the vote) they should be the one's to remove him.
At least I'm consistent as I didn't agree with Thatch being removed in 1990 or the Blair coup in 2006 though I think May's defenestration was fair enough as the voters had already stripped her of her power in the 2017 election.
But whatever I think it looks as though he's finished so we'll see what happens.
In fairness to Douglas Ross he has stuck his neck out here. If Boris survives he has to resign. He could have just voted out quietly in a secret ballot but he hasn't. I think most of the other Scottish MPs will follow him on this. In fact, I become more and more convinced that Boris is going to lose this. Close, but I think he loses. A convicted liar as PM just will not do.
I have considerable trepdiation about what comes next.
Fantastic news. If BJ manages to deliver perhaps the Tories could anoint David Duguid as leader. He's dead good.
I actually meant who of them would vote to keep BJ as PM.
But I agree with you about Hague. He could have been great. But it was a disastrous decision for him to stand as leader in 97. Should have stuck as Howard's number 2. I think I read that Tony Blair had a high regard for Hague personally speaking but had little time for IDS or Howard.
Hague found himself propelled to leadership in 1997 - once Howard had been fatally wounded by Ann Widdecombe's jibe, Hague, who would have been Howard's deputy, suddenly found himself in the limelight.
Had, for example, Howard won in 1997, Hague might have taken over in 2001 or there might even have been a Cameron vs Hague vs Davis battle in 2005.
The conclusion is it's all Ann Widdecombe's fault (apparently).
A thought experiment. If, instead of Tory MPs, the VONC was restricted to former Party Leaders, how would Boris fare.
So we have:
Sir John Major Lord Hague Sir Iain Duncan Smith Lord Howard David Cameron Theresa May
Would BJ get a single vote?
Telling.
Absolutely. I’d vote for Boris over Major, IDS, and TMay, for sure. All of them twats. Major is one of the reasons for Brexit, and he is still at it. Fuckwit
Dunno about Cameron and Howard. Close call
Hague is the real missed opportunity. A super bright guy, very charming, articulate, humane, sensitive. Could have been a splendid prime minister, but made his pitch at precisely the wrong moment
I’d certainly go for Hague over Boris
I actually meant who of them would vote to keep BJ as PM.
But I agree with you about Hague. He could have been great. But it was a disastrous decision for him to stand as leader in 97. Should have stuck as Howard's number 2. I think I read that Tony Blair had a high regard for Hague personally speaking but had little time for IDS or Howard.
Hague is a bit smug and (ironically) too fond of the sound of his own voice.
MY prediction for tonight is 242 for Boris and 117 against. It'll be nice for the two Conservative Deputy Speakers to cast a vote because they don't usually in the Commons.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
I don't believe even Number Ten are that stupid because winning while being wounded does not equal being safe.
Describe unsafe to us Bondy.
120 or less against and he gets the summer and autumn if not the full year for a fight back.
145 or higher against him, how exactly do they prize him out in the coming months?
And between safe at 120 and badly wounded at 150 against, what number are you saying makes it 100% certain he is out this year?
Unsafe is a fetid open wound turning gangrenous. To have even 120 of your own MPs known to oppose your leadership means all authority drains away from the PM, just as the pus from the wound would need draining. He's a lame duck. The Conservative brand is degraded every day.
How do they prize him out? One amusing way is to imagine what happens the Privileges Committee reports on Johnson and the Commons votes on their findings. You know there are more than enough Tories opposed to Johnson that the Commons could vote for a suspension. You think the PM could survive being suspended from the Commons for having misled it?
If 145 declared for Boris, it's all over. He's won. He's going nowhere.
There's a reason a lot of rebels and commentators have spent all day speculating how big a win makes him 'safe'. The rebels hope for victory, there's obviously a chance even now as half are undeclared, but they feel more confident about arguing 130/140 means he is fatally undermined.
A great tower is being felled in Mordor. By a team of incel hobbits. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the bruised sky will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times. Nine for mortal men doomed to die.
For not attributing the idea, I’ll set Christopher Tolkien on you.
You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.
But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.
Absolute sense from Mr H
Not really. You can argue that individuals should be free to say what they like but that the state, in the form of state schools, shouldn't be pushing one side of the culture wars.
Yep. Mr H is completely wrong there. All the more so given that so much of the so called 'woke' agenda involves denying people freedom of speech based on the idea that we should not be allowed to say things that might hurt people's feelings. Wit that comment it appears that David Herdson has bought into the Newspeak mythology.
And that is in spite of the fact that, as a rule, J H-B is wrong in everything she says and does.
The people whose feelings are most hurt and go on about it the most are the likes of JHB.
If 145 declared for Boris, it's all over. He's won. He's going nowhere.
Of course he's going nowhere. He was never going anywhere. He's safe until the next election at least. Why would Conservative MPs dethrone Johnson when they kept May after she threw away their majority?
Apple just announced shared image libraries, where it can be based on things like who is in the photo.....e.g. you, your partner, your kids, all to you family shared library
I give it 10 seconds until photos are automatically being sent to that shared libary that are "embarrassing".
Not now Apple. We have a leadership VONC to watch. Jeez...
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson.
Agree! He wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes with Mrs Thatcher... I was musing the other day that HMQ started with Churchill and may end with Boris (actually it looks Boris won't be her last PM)
What went wrong in the interim?
Why are you still defending him then?
Someone has to?
I'm just not a fan of getting rid of PM's in the middle of a Parliament especially when they've been elected with such a strong endorsement.
The British people elected him (with a histrionically very large majority and share of the vote) they should be the one's to remove him.
At least I'm consistent as I didn't agree with Thatch being removed in 1990 or the Blair coup in 2006 though I think May's defenestration was fair enough as the voters had already stripped her of her power in the 2017 election.
But whatever I think it looks as though he's finished so we'll see what happens.
The British people did not elect him. A minority of the British electorate voted for a series of Tory MPs. Those MPs then decided who should be PM and have just as much right to change their minds now.
Now I happen to think that the FPTP system is a good one but I would never claim that it meant that the British people voted for a PM because they did not, either legally, practically or even theoretically.
Apple just announced shared image libraries, where it can be based on things like who is in the photo.....e.g. you, your partner, your kids, all to you family shared library
I give it 10 seconds until photos are automatically being sent to that shared libary that are "embarrassing".
Not now Apple. We have a leadership VONC to watch. Jeez...
Presumably that 145 includes all the payroll... but surely Mandy Rice-Davies applies to them?
If 145 declared i think bojo is "safe" .
Maybe.
Fatally wounded but survives today.
Poasibly.
The herding is around 130-150 votes against him, with 170 at the upper limits.
However, it's worth bearing in mind that over 200 Tory MPs have failed to publicly back him and not everyone who's declared for him will be telling the truth.
I now think he's got a 65:35 chance of mathematically surviving and it's possible (just possible) we're in for a shock tonight.
Labour 38% (-1) Conservative 34% (+1) Liberal Democrat 11% (-1) Green 7% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (–) Reform UK 4% (–) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 1 June
Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.
Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16.
It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.
It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson.
Agree! He wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes with Mrs Thatcher... I was musing the other day that HMQ started with Churchill and may end with Boris (actually it looks Boris won't be her last PM)
What went wrong in the interim?
Why are you still defending him then?
Someone has to?
I'm just not a fan of getting rid of PM's in the middle of a Parliament especially when they've been elected with such a strong endorsement.
The British people elected him (with a histrionically very large majority and share of the vote) they should be the one's to remove him.
At least I'm consistent as I didn't agree with Thatch being removed in 1990 or the Blair coup in 2006 though I think May's defenestration was fair enough as the voters had already stripped her of her power in the 2017 election.
But whatever I think it looks as though he's finished so we'll see what happens.
I favour PR, but FPTP enthusiasts tell me that it's really important to preserve the link with voting for an individual MP. Well, if we accept the case that the general election is about voting for individual MPs, then we have to accept their right to change the PM, because we voted for them and not for the PM.
If we are really voting for the PM, then let's have an electoral system designed for that purpose.
A great tower is being felled in Mordor. By a team of incel hobbits. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the bruised sky will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times. Nine for mortal men doomed to die.
For not attributing the idea, I’ll set Christopher Tolkien on you.
"Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"
Bruce Anderson (Reaction)
Shit like that is completely out of order and makes me want to support Boris again. FFS
Yes, you're desperately trying to find some external stimulus to excuse you swinging back behind Big Dog. Your heart's still with him.
Actually, it’s not. I despise many of the people attacking him. And I REALLY mean despise. Awful people. C*nts. Remoaners. 2nd voters like Starmer. Scot Nats. The very dregs of the swill, of the uttermost vomit of the earth.
UGH
And yet, I’ve now had THREE large gins in Tbilisi and…. To be honest… I am finding it hard to work up a head of steam in terms of an argument as to why Boris should stay. There just isn’t one, really. OK his worst enemies are vile. But, what are the positives?? Why vote BORIS?
Yeah, you can't find the arguments because your head knows he has to go. But you want him. You want him to stay. The heart has its reasons.
.. of which reason knows nothing
God bless Pascal. A superb insight, superbly phrased
Yeah this time my head says Nah, Boris has to go and all my heart can do is beat ominously and point a ventricle at Jolyon Maugham and the Lib Dems and Sir Beer Korma. It’s not enough. They are scum but it’s not enough. The country needs a better government. That’s the reason I voted Brexit, FFS, so we could choose better governments, which make ALL the crucial decisions
Sorry, Boris, my old boss. This is it
"That’s the reason I voted Brexit, FFS, so we could choose better governments, which make ALL the crucial decisions". 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
The slight problem is that the Brexiteer movement comes from the most braindead end of the Conservative movement 🤣🤣. It is like Magdalene College Cambridge having to choose it's next University Challenge Team from the Land Economy department.
Emojis do not become you, as mourning did not flatter Electra. That is all I can say
I thought mourning did become her? Unlike her I do not seek vengeance, as I only focus on lurve! I do have a weakness for mockery, and I accept I may have overdone the emojis. Apparently to use more than one emoji is a "boomer" thing, though I am quite not in that category, though I think perhaps you are? 🤣
You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.
But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.
Absolute sense from Mr H
Not really. You can argue that individuals should be free to say what they like but that the state, in the form of state schools, shouldn't be pushing one side of the culture wars.
Yep. Mr H is completely wrong there. All the more so given that so much of the so called 'woke' agenda involves denying people freedom of speech based on the idea that we should not be allowed to say things that might hurt people's feelings. Wit that comment it appears that David Herdson has bought into the Newspeak mythology.
And that is in spite of the fact that, as a rule, J H-B is wrong in everything she says and does.
The people whose feelings are most hurt and go on about it the most are the likes of JHB.
Well indeed. As I say I am not defending her but there is a logic to what she says. You do not defend and enhance free speech by making rules about what can and cannot be said. Which is very much the agenda being followed at the moment in many institutions.
I avoid this time using the word 'woke'. I only used it in my last reply because it was the term that had been used in the original posting. I think it is a much abused and pointless term which adds nothing of meaning to an otherwise serious debate.
It's hard for BoJo not to get to 180, incredible, really. But for all Lord BoJo and his pals will try to claim that 1 vote is enough, it would be the beginning of the end. The practical victory threshold is probably around 240 for:120 against, which seems a long way off.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
It's hard for BoJo not to get to 180, incredible, really. But for all Lord BoJo and his pals will try to claim that 1 vote is enough, it would be the beginning of the end. The practical victory threshold is probably around 240 for:120 against, which seems a long way off.
Stand by for a run on grey suits...
I guess also given his ruthlessness there may be far more public backers, private sackers for Johnson than May had.
In fairness to Douglas Ross he has stuck his neck out here. If Boris survives he has to resign. He could have just voted out quietly in a secret ballot but he hasn't. I think most of the other Scottish MPs will follow him on this. In fact, I become more and more convinced that Boris is going to lose this. Close, but I think he loses. A convicted liar as PM just will not do.
I have considerable trepdiation about what comes next.
Fantastic news. If BJ manages to deliver perhaps the Tories could anoint David Duguid as leader. He's dead good.
David Duguid may be closer to dead than good but he is also irrelevant as he is an MP not an MSP.
My prediction: Johnson wins, there are between 100 and 120 votes against. His loyalists will declare that the issue is closed. Within two weeks it will all start again.
It won't be two weeks - it will be immediate
That would require significant resignations in terms of either numbers or key individuals. I can't see either happening. Johnson picked his payroll well.
I wasn’t around in 1990, but Lady thatcher used all the best talent available to her I understand, unlike Johnson who uses useless cheerleaders, so Lady Thatcher had europhile wets resigning because she done the right thing, Boris won’t get any resignations because he’s done the wrong thing.
Going back to what Big G said, you are wrong Big G. If Boris has only 120 or less voting against him, it changes the narrative of this, it won’t carry on with how it’s been the last few weeks, even the loss of one or both by elections would produce a more mooted response with the vonc won and the rally round battle back on.
I am beginning to think Team Boris might have played a blinder in taking back control today. I certainly think it was their idea to hold it Monday night, so the MPs have no newspaper editorials telling them what to do.
Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.
Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.
I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.
If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?
If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
Comments
Johnson (CON): 31% (-2)
Starmer (LAB): 37% (-1)
Sunak (CON): 27% (-1)
Johnson (CON): 32% (+1)
Sunak (CON): 30% (-1)
Starmer (LAB): 37% (-2)
via @RedfieldWilton, 5 Jun
(Changes with 29 May)
God bless Pascal. A superb insight, superbly phrased
Yeah this time my head says Nah, Boris has to go and all my heart can do is beat ominously and point a ventricle at Jolyon Maugham and the Lib Dems and Sir Beer Korma. It’s not enough. They are scum but it’s not enough. The country needs a better government. That’s the reason I voted Brexit, FFS, so we could choose better governments, which make ALL the crucial decisions
Sorry, Boris, my old boss. This is it
'Tell that to Theresa' we hoped Chris Mason would ask.
(He's not sharp like Laura K. How we miss her)
"They are still in the pocket of the union barons. They want to keep us locked into EU regulations and though they may live in great stuccoed townhouses in north London they deplore the dream of home ownership for everyone but themselves"
Boris Johnson there, famously not from the metropolitan elite
Quite what Labour has to do with his leadership qualities though I am not sure.
What went wrong in the interim?
So we have:
Sir John Major
Lord Hague
Sir Iain Duncan Smith
Lord Howard
David Cameron
Theresa May
Would BJ get a single vote?
Telling.
Thatcher herself tended to be a fairly straightforward person (though not immune to spinning like a top when it suited her) but her time at the top bred a class of politician and ruling elite who were very happy to feather their nests and look down on the common folk, thank you very much.
Blair just took PR politics to the next level and probably did as much as anyone to completely devalue the truth in politics. Without Blair, there would be no Johnson. What I will give some credit to Blair for, is that he did have a vision and a purpose. Which you couldn’t say for Boris.
The slight problem is that the Brexiteer movement comes from the most braindead end of the Conservative movement 🤣🤣. It is like Magdalene College Cambridge having to choose it's next University Challenge Team from the Land Economy department.
Tory MPs are voting. Sweepstake closed. Final averages (485 entries): confidence 205, no confidence 149
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1533856893176782851?cxt=HHwWhoCx4fatrckqAAAA
Your nightmare begins in a couple of years....
Absolutely. I’d vote for Boris over Major, IDS, and TMay, for sure. All of them twats. Major is one of the reasons for Brexit, and he is still at it. Fuckwit
Dunno about Cameron and Howard. Close call
Hague is the real missed opportunity. A super bright guy, very charming, articulate, humane, sensitive. Could have been a splendid prime minister, but made his pitch at precisely the wrong moment
I’d certainly go for Hague over Boris
An MP who votes for Johnson today but says "if they'd waited until after Tiverton, I might have voted against him" is also an MP who would've said after the Tiverton defeat "if they'd waited until the Privileges Committee Report, I might have voted against him". And so on.
https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1533727534940049408?cxt=HHwWgMCy5aTE8sgqAAAA
But that also includes the new orthodoxy which, at present, is dominating debate in too many spheres.
But now is not the time for that discussion. I need to get the popcorn ready for 9pm
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kjL8FEg8iWmleZxOph3Gg69wM7ODhrPO1X-BwjJ407I/edit#gid=0
Presumably that 145 includes all the payroll... but surely Mandy Rice-Davies applies to them?
Perhaps there's an argument for a term limit for Prime Ministers
I have considerable trepdiation about what comes next.
Theresa May has turned up in a ball gown
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1533862914679091202
But I agree with you about Hague. He could have been great. But it was a disastrous decision for him to stand as leader in 97. Should have stuck as Howard's number 2. I think I read that Tony Blair had a high regard for Hague personally speaking but had little time for IDS or Howard.
MY prediction for tonight is 242 for Boris and 117 against. It'll be nice for the two Conservative Deputy Speakers to cast a vote because they don't usually in the Commons.
Wasn't hopeful, as the roadsides around there have quite a lot of it and despite municipal cutting, digging out and generous applications of glyphosate they always seem to survive and come back.
I was saved by - I think - being obsessively regular with my weedkiller applications, and an extremely hot and dry summer which probably saved the day. It disappeared and, to date, has never come back.
120 or less against and he gets the summer and autumn if not the full year for a fight back.
145 or higher against him, how exactly do they prize him out in the coming months?
And between safe at 120 and badly wounded at 150 against, what number are you saying makes it 100% certain he is out this year?
I stand by what I put out there, the possibility that seeing the drip drip slide in the wrong direction in the last fortnight, and the two by elections on horizon, this Monday evenings vote was engineered by Number ten to take back control of the situation.
Inverted genius.
And that is in spite of the fact that, as a rule, J H-B is wrong in everything she says and does.
@jessicaelgot
·
5m
Theresa May has arrived to vote in a full ballgown
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot
I give it 10 seconds until photos are automatically being sent to that shared libary that are "embarrassing".
Maybe.
Fatally wounded but survives today.
Poasibly.
There are no rules here and the range of potential results is vast. So there's value in the margins.
I'm just not a fan of getting rid of PM's in the middle of a Parliament especially when they've been elected with such a strong endorsement.
The British people elected him (with a histrionically very large majority and share of the vote) they should be the one's to remove him.
At least I'm consistent as I didn't agree with Thatch being removed in 1990 or the Blair coup in 2006 though I think May's defenestration was fair enough as the voters had already stripped her of her power in the 2017 election.
But whatever I think it looks as though he's finished so we'll see what happens.
Had, for example, Howard won in 1997, Hague might have taken over in 2001 or there might even have been a Cameron vs Hague vs Davis battle in 2005.
The conclusion is it's all Ann Widdecombe's fault (apparently).
How do they prize him out? One amusing way is to imagine what happens the Privileges Committee reports on Johnson and the Commons votes on their findings. You know there are more than enough Tories opposed to Johnson that the Commons could vote for a suspension. You think the PM could survive being suspended from the Commons for having misled it?
Now I happen to think that the FPTP system is a good one but I would never claim that it meant that the British people voted for a PM because they did not, either legally, practically or even theoretically.
Asymmetry applies, declaring for is easier than against
Just pledging to donate $7million is not the same as actually handing over the cash.
However, it's worth bearing in mind that over 200 Tory MPs have failed to publicly back him and not everyone who's declared for him will be telling the truth.
I now think he's got a 65:35 chance of mathematically surviving and it's possible (just possible) we're in for a shock tonight.
If we are really voting for the PM, then let's have an electoral system designed for that purpose.
I avoid this time using the word 'woke'. I only used it in my last reply because it was the term that had been used in the original posting. I think it is a much abused and pointless term which adds nothing of meaning to an otherwise serious debate.
163 MPs publicly backed May. She got 200 votes. If 37 more back Johnson than are public he'd get 182... (or 177 if you're using
@johnestevens's list).
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1533862013503520768
It's hard for BoJo not to get to 180, incredible, really. But for all Lord BoJo and his pals will try to claim that 1 vote is enough, it would be the beginning of the end. The practical victory threshold is probably around 240 for:120 against, which seems a long way off.
Stand by for a run on grey suits...
That will make governing extremely challenging, regardless of a theoretical big majority and that the majority of your party thinks you're okay.
Going back to what Big G said, you are wrong Big G. If Boris has only 120 or less voting against him, it changes the narrative of this, it won’t carry on with how it’s been the last few weeks, even the loss of one or both by elections would produce a more mooted response with the vonc won and the rally round battle back on.
I am beginning to think Team Boris might have played a blinder in taking back control today. I certainly think it was their idea to hold it Monday night, so the MPs have no newspaper editorials telling them what to do.