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The ConservativeHome poll is bad news for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

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  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    JR-M saying 'a one vote win is enough!'

    'Tell that to Theresa' we hoped Chris Mason would ask.

    (He's not sharp like Laura K. How we miss her)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,059

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1533856778538082304

    The absolute disconnect of this.

    You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.

    But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.

    Absolute sense from Mr H

    If she were advocating for compulsory Critical Thinking education, I would be in support. We should absolutely be teaching kids of all ages how to think not what to think.
    I think it's fairly obvious that she wants to teach kids fairy-tale pablum about how great the Empire was, blah blah. Getting kids to engage in what some call "woke nonsense" is much more likely to lead to critical thinking.
  • #12: PM went for Labour:

    "They are still in the pocket of the union barons. They want to keep us locked into EU regulations and though they may live in great stuccoed townhouses in north London they deplore the dream of home ownership for everyone but themselves"

    Boris Johnson there, famously not from the metropolitan elite
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094
    Douglas Ross described as having the 'tactical ingenuity of a coma patient' by Guido. Too harsh, or not harsh enough?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    A great oak is being felled in the forest. By a team of incel dwarves. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the canopy will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times

    An amusing turn of phrase, but if you are referring to Johnson I think he might be better described as an overgrown Leylandii. Out of control, shallow routed and blocking out the light while sapping all the nutrient from the soil. The sooner the dwarfs get their axes aligned the better. They would be wise not to plant one of his species ever again.
    How about Japanese Knotweed?
    That would be infinitely more depressing as it is very difficult to extinguish. That said, thinking of Johnson as a an infuriating notifiable weed does seem to some up much of his personality.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094

    #12: PM went for Labour:

    "They are still in the pocket of the union barons. They want to keep us locked into EU regulations and though they may live in great stuccoed townhouses in north London they deplore the dream of home ownership for everyone but themselves"

    Boris Johnson there, famously not from the metropolitan elite

    From it but not for it.

    Quite what Labour has to do with his leadership qualities though I am not sure.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    edited June 2022

    GIN1138 said:

    MISTY said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16. ;)

    It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.

    It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
    This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
    In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
    Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson.
    Agree! He wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes with Mrs Thatcher... I was musing the other day that HMQ started with Churchill and may end with Boris (actually it looks Boris won't be her last PM)

    What went wrong in the interim? ;)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    Do we know what time the result is expected to be announced?

    9pm
    Thanks!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,826
    kle4 said:

    Douglas Ross described as having the 'tactical ingenuity of a coma patient' by Guido. Too harsh, or not harsh enough?

    At least he didn't go to the dentist.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MISTY said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16. ;)

    It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.

    It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
    This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
    In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
    Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson.
    Agree! He wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes with Mrs Thatcher... I was musing the other day the HMQ started with Churchill and may end with Boris (actually it looks Boris won't be her last PM)

    What went wrong in the interim? ;)
    Brexit
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    actually 135 on that thread now
    So he only needs about 1 in 5 of those who are undeclared to break his way. Very achievable.
    I don’t understand why there would be any “shy Boris voters” amongst MPs.

    If you are too worried about publicly declaring for Boris then clearly you accept that he’s a liability for your future electoral prospects and so would not vote for him to stay.

    If you think he is the answer and is best for the country then surely you would say so.

    So will be interesting to see how many undeclared actually do break for him.
    Surely they are just hedging their bets, on the basis that he may lose. If he wins, he's hardly going to be in a position to penalise people who didn't publicly declare for him. But a new leader might penalise them for backing him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565

    Do we know what time the result is expected to be announced?

    9pm
    Wonder who will have the most accurate number before then? Will we get "They think they've toppled him....."?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,750
    A thought experiment. If, instead of Tory MPs, the VONC was restricted to former Party Leaders, how would Boris fare.

    So we have:

    Sir John Major
    Lord Hague
    Sir Iain Duncan Smith
    Lord Howard
    David Cameron
    Theresa May

    Would BJ get a single vote?

    Telling.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    edited June 2022

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MISTY said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16. ;)

    It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.

    It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
    This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
    In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
    Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson.
    Agree! He wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes with Mrs Thatcher... I was musing the other day the HMQ started with Churchill and may end with Boris (actually it looks Boris won't be her last PM)

    What went wrong in the interim? ;)
    Brexit
    They'd been going downhill for a while... Major? Brown??? Dave?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    kle4 said:

    Douglas Ross described as having the 'tactical ingenuity of a coma patient' by Guido. Too harsh, or not harsh enough?

    Too harsh. On the poor coma patient.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,286
    PB is unexpectedly dull given the excitement. I shall repair to watch Borgen, here in sultry Tbilisi, on my little wooden terrace. And I shall return!
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028

    Do we know what time the result is expected to be announced?

    9pm
    Wonder who will have the most accurate number before then? Will we get "They think they've toppled him....."?
    Such a moveable picture. I still reckon this is tight.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1533856778538082304

    The absolute disconnect of this.

    You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.

    But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.

    Absolute sense from Mr H

    If she were advocating for compulsory Critical Thinking education, I would be in support. We should absolutely be teaching kids of all ages how to think not what to think.
    I think it's fairly obvious that she wants to teach kids fairy-tale pablum about how great the Empire was, blah blah. Getting kids to engage in what some call "woke nonsense" is much more likely to lead to critical thinking.
    Not if you teach it properly.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    A great oak is being felled in the forest. By a team of incel dwarves. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the canopy will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times

    An amusing turn of phrase, but if you are referring to Johnson I think he might be better described as an overgrown Leylandii. Out of control, shallow routed and blocking out the light while sapping all the nutrient from the soil. The sooner the dwarfs get their axes aligned the better. They would be wise not to plant one of his species ever again.
    How about Japanese Knotweed?
    Bloody hell, I hope he's easier to get rid of than Japanese knotweed!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    malcolmg said:

    fitalass said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I understand @Douglas4Moray has decided to vote AGAINST @BorisJohnson tonight, completing a double u-turn on PM’s future

    Statement expected shortly

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1533835725367541762

    Not surprised, I have not seen any Scottish Conservative MPs apart from Scotland Minister Alastair Jack come out in support of Boris today.
    Crikey is Jack still alive, he must have the cushiest job in the world, 250K in his pocket a year for nothing.
    At least we hear Ross making a right tit of himself now and again.
    Not so much now and again but round and round.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    A thought experiment. If, instead of Tory MPs, the VONC was restricted to former Party Leaders, how would Boris fare.

    So we have:

    Sir John Major
    Lord Hague
    Sir Iain Duncan Smith
    Lord Howard
    David Cameron
    Theresa May

    Would BJ get a single vote?

    Telling.

    How many of those ever supported him though? IDS was in the fan club, Major definitely not, Cameron and May cautioned against him from before the start. Not sure on Hague and Howard.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MISTY said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16. ;)

    It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.

    It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
    This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
    In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
    Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson.
    Agree! He wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes with Mrs Thatcher... I was musing the other day the HMQ started with Churchill and may end with Boris (actually it looks Boris won't be her last PM)

    What went wrong in the interim? ;)
    Thatcher and Blair, mainly.

    Thatcher herself tended to be a fairly straightforward person (though not immune to spinning like a top when it suited her) but her time at the top bred a class of politician and ruling elite who were very happy to feather their nests and look down on the common folk, thank you very much.

    Blair just took PR politics to the next level and probably did as much as anyone to completely devalue the truth in politics. Without Blair, there would be no Johnson. What I will give some credit to Blair for, is that he did have a vision and a purpose. Which you couldn’t say for Boris.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    "Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"

    Bruce Anderson (Reaction)

    Shit like that is completely out of order and makes me want to support Boris again. FFS
    Yes, you're desperately trying to find some external stimulus to excuse you swinging back behind Big Dog. Your heart's still with him.
    Actually, it’s not. I despise many of the people attacking him. And I REALLY mean despise. Awful people. C*nts. Remoaners. 2nd voters like Starmer. Scot Nats. The very dregs of the swill, of the uttermost vomit of the earth.

    UGH

    And yet, I’ve now had THREE large gins in Tbilisi and…. To be honest… I am finding it hard to work up a head of steam in terms of an argument as to why Boris should stay. There just isn’t one, really. OK his worst enemies are vile. But, what are the positives?? Why vote BORIS?
    Yeah, you can't find the arguments because your head knows he has to go.
    But you want him. You want him to stay. The heart has its reasons.
    .. of which reason knows nothing

    God bless Pascal. A superb insight, superbly phrased

    Yeah this time my head says Nah, Boris has to go and all my heart can do is beat ominously and point a ventricle at Jolyon Maugham and the Lib Dems and Sir Beer Korma. It’s not enough. They are scum but it’s not enough. The country needs a better government. That’s the reason I voted Brexit, FFS, so we could choose better governments, which make ALL the crucial decisions

    Sorry, Boris, my old boss. This is it

    "That’s the reason I voted Brexit, FFS, so we could choose better governments, which make ALL the crucial decisions". 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    The slight problem is that the Brexiteer movement comes from the most braindead end of the Conservative movement 🤣🤣. It is like Magdalene College Cambridge having to choose it's next University Challenge Team from the Land Economy department.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    My prediction: Johnson wins, there are between 100 and 120 votes against. His loyalists will declare that the issue is closed. Within two weeks it will all start again.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Douglas Ross described as having the 'tactical ingenuity of a coma patient' by Guido. Too harsh, or not harsh enough?

    At least he didn't go to the dentist.
    Sorry, I don't get it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094
    Followers of John Rentoul likely to be over optimistic?

    Tory MPs are voting. Sweepstake closed. Final averages (485 entries): confidence 205, no confidence 149
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1533856893176782851?cxt=HHwWhoCx4fatrckqAAAA
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    DavidL said:

    Just watching the highlights of day 3 of the test, brilliant game but the flaws in English batting plain for all to see. Nothing useful from 1-3 and some pretty ordinary dismissals. Beligerence from YJB but really not what the situation required. Stokes a total stroke of luck on the NB and some very ordinary batting. Root, just magnificent, a totally different class.

    Root is astonishingly good, and we have been lucky to watch him for years. Avoiding injury, I don't think he will do a Cook, so may be around for a good while yet and will smash Cookie's test runs total. I get the sense he will carry on as long as he can - as he said - he just loves batting.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,059

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1533856778538082304

    The absolute disconnect of this.

    You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.

    But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.

    Absolute sense from Mr H

    If she were advocating for compulsory Critical Thinking education, I would be in support. We should absolutely be teaching kids of all ages how to think not what to think.
    I think it's fairly obvious that she wants to teach kids fairy-tale pablum about how great the Empire was, blah blah. Getting kids to engage in what some call "woke nonsense" is much more likely to lead to critical thinking.
    Not if you teach it properly.
    Teaching the Empire was great is incompatible with teaching critical thinking. Those complaining about "woke nonsense" in schools are those who struggle with the idea that what they were taught in school could in any way require updating. They're the least receptive to ideas of critical thinking. Critical thinking requires kids to consider challenging the orthodoxy.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Leon said:

    PB is unexpectedly dull given the excitement. I shall repair to watch Borgen, here in sultry Tbilisi, on my little wooden terrace. And I shall return!

    Don't worry, there'll still be a Conservative Government whatever happens tonight.

    Your nightmare begins in a couple of years....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,286

    A thought experiment. If, instead of Tory MPs, the VONC was restricted to former Party Leaders, how would Boris fare.

    So we have:

    Sir John Major
    Lord Hague
    Sir Iain Duncan Smith
    Lord Howard
    David Cameron
    Theresa May

    Would BJ get a single vote?

    Telling.


    Absolutely. I’d vote for Boris over Major, IDS, and TMay, for sure. All of them twats. Major is one of the reasons for Brexit, and he is still at it. Fuckwit

    Dunno about Cameron and Howard. Close call

    Hague is the real missed opportunity. A super bright guy, very charming, articulate, humane, sensitive. Could have been a splendid prime minister, but made his pitch at precisely the wrong moment

    I’d certainly go for Hague over Boris
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MISTY said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16. ;)

    It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.

    It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
    This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
    In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
    Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson.
    Agree! He wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes with Mrs Thatcher... I was musing the other day that HMQ started with Churchill and may end with Boris (actually it looks Boris won't be her last PM)

    What went wrong in the interim? ;)
    Why are you still defending him then? Even if you once supported him, there is no harm in admitting a mistake, and realising change must take place. He is a disaster for his party (of which I used to be a member and activist) and the country
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,525
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    Douglas Ross described as having the 'tactical ingenuity of a coma patient' by Guido. Too harsh, or not harsh enough?

    At least he didn't go to the dentist.
    Sorry, I don't get it?
    John Major was famously under the radar and avoiding accusations of betrayal at the time of Thatcher's downfall by undergoing dental treatment.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039

    My prediction: Johnson wins, there are between 100 and 120 votes against. His loyalists will declare that the issue is closed. Within two weeks it will all start again.

    It won't be two weeks - it will be immediate
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094
    I believe this completely.

    An MP who votes for Johnson today but says "if they'd waited until after Tiverton, I might have voted against him" is also an MP who would've said after the Tiverton defeat "if they'd waited until the Privileges Committee Report, I might have voted against him". And so on.
    https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1533727534940049408?cxt=HHwWgMCy5aTE8sgqAAAA
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1533856778538082304

    The absolute disconnect of this.

    You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.

    But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.

    Absolute sense from Mr H

    If she were advocating for compulsory Critical Thinking education, I would be in support. We should absolutely be teaching kids of all ages how to think not what to think.
    I think it's fairly obvious that she wants to teach kids fairy-tale pablum about how great the Empire was, blah blah. Getting kids to engage in what some call "woke nonsense" is much more likely to lead to critical thinking.
    Not if you teach it properly.
    Teaching the Empire was great is incompatible with teaching critical thinking. Those complaining about "woke nonsense" in schools are those who struggle with the idea that what they were taught in school could in any way require updating. They're the least receptive to ideas of critical thinking. Critical thinking requires kids to consider challenging the orthodoxy.
    I agree.

    But that also includes the new orthodoxy which, at present, is dominating debate in too many spheres.

    But now is not the time for that discussion. I need to get the popcorn ready for 9pm
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,286

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    "Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"

    Bruce Anderson (Reaction)

    Shit like that is completely out of order and makes me want to support Boris again. FFS
    Yes, you're desperately trying to find some external stimulus to excuse you swinging back behind Big Dog. Your heart's still with him.
    Actually, it’s not. I despise many of the people attacking him. And I REALLY mean despise. Awful people. C*nts. Remoaners. 2nd voters like Starmer. Scot Nats. The very dregs of the swill, of the uttermost vomit of the earth.

    UGH

    And yet, I’ve now had THREE large gins in Tbilisi and…. To be honest… I am finding it hard to work up a head of steam in terms of an argument as to why Boris should stay. There just isn’t one, really. OK his worst enemies are vile. But, what are the positives?? Why vote BORIS?
    Yeah, you can't find the arguments because your head knows he has to go.
    But you want him. You want him to stay. The heart has its reasons.
    .. of which reason knows nothing

    God bless Pascal. A superb insight, superbly phrased

    Yeah this time my head says Nah, Boris has to go and all my heart can do is beat ominously and point a ventricle at Jolyon Maugham and the Lib Dems and Sir Beer Korma. It’s not enough. They are scum but it’s not enough. The country needs a better government. That’s the reason I voted Brexit, FFS, so we could choose better governments, which make ALL the crucial decisions

    Sorry, Boris, my old boss. This is it

    "That’s the reason I voted Brexit, FFS, so we could choose better governments, which make ALL the crucial decisions". 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    The slight problem is that the Brexiteer movement comes from the most braindead end of the Conservative movement 🤣🤣. It is like Magdalene College Cambridge having to choose it's next University Challenge Team from the Land Economy department.
    Emojis do not become you, as mourning did not flatter Electra. That is all I can say
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    145 declared for Johnson, 45 against and 169 undeclared so far, according to this:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kjL8FEg8iWmleZxOph3Gg69wM7ODhrPO1X-BwjJ407I/edit#gid=0

    Presumably that 145 includes all the payroll... but surely Mandy Rice-Davies applies to them?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Roger said:

    JR-M saying 'a one vote win is enough!'

    'Tell that to Theresa' we hoped Chris Mason would ask.

    (He's not sharp like Laura K. How we miss her)

    Victoria Derbyshire already did this morning and he said he realised he was wrong when he said that ability Theresa May.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874


    Thatcher and Blair, mainly.

    Thatcher herself tended to be a fairly straightforward person (though not immune to spinning like a top when it suited her) but her time at the top bred a class of politician and ruling elite who were very happy to feather their nests and look down on the common folk, thank you very much.

    Blair just took PR politics to the next level and probably did as much as anyone to completely devalue the truth in politics. Without Blair, there would be no Johnson. What I will give some credit to Blair for, is that he did have a vision and a purpose. Which you couldn’t say for Boris.

    The one thing they had in common was longevity. I suspect deep down Boris fancied a decade and a half in No.10.

    Perhaps there's an argument for a term limit for Prime Ministers
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,826
    In fairness to Douglas Ross he has stuck his neck out here. If Boris survives he has to resign. He could have just voted out quietly in a secret ballot but he hasn't. I think most of the other Scottish MPs will follow him on this. In fact, I become more and more convinced that Boris is going to lose this. Close, but I think he loses. A convicted liar as PM just will not do.

    I have considerable trepdiation about what comes next.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    She knows something we don't know:

    Theresa May has turned up in a ball gown

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1533862914679091202
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,286
    Leon said:

    A thought experiment. If, instead of Tory MPs, the VONC was restricted to former Party Leaders, how would Boris fare.

    So we have:

    Sir John Major
    Lord Hague
    Sir Iain Duncan Smith
    Lord Howard
    David Cameron
    Theresa May

    Would BJ get a single vote?

    Telling.


    Absolutely. I’d vote for Boris over Major, IDS, and TMay, for sure. All of them twats. Major is one of the reasons for Brexit, and he is still at it. Fuckwit

    Dunno about Cameron and Howard. Close call

    Hague is the real missed opportunity. A super bright guy, very charming, articulate, humane, sensitive. Could have been a splendid prime minister, but made his pitch at precisely the wrong moment

    I’d certainly go for Hague over Boris
    I fear I have misconstrued this hypothetical, but I have misconstrued a hypothetical that was enormously boring, and made it better by mistake, so I shall not repine
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,750
    Leon said:

    A thought experiment. If, instead of Tory MPs, the VONC was restricted to former Party Leaders, how would Boris fare.

    So we have:

    Sir John Major
    Lord Hague
    Sir Iain Duncan Smith
    Lord Howard
    David Cameron
    Theresa May

    Would BJ get a single vote?

    Telling.


    Absolutely. I’d vote for Boris over Major, IDS, and TMay, for sure. All of them twats. Major is one of the reasons for Brexit, and he is still at it. Fuckwit

    Dunno about Cameron and Howard. Close call

    Hague is the real missed opportunity. A super bright guy, very charming, articulate, humane, sensitive. Could have been a splendid prime minister, but made his pitch at precisely the wrong moment

    I’d certainly go for Hague over Boris
    I actually meant who of them would vote to keep BJ as PM.

    But I agree with you about Hague. He could have been great. But it was a disastrous decision for him to stand as leader in 97. Should have stuck as Howard's number 2. I think I read that Tony Blair had a high regard for Hague personally speaking but had little time for IDS or Howard.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Evening all :)

    MY prediction for tonight is 242 for Boris and 117 against. It'll be nice for the two Conservative Deputy Speakers to cast a vote because they don't usually in the Commons.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526
    Leon said:

    A thought experiment. If, instead of Tory MPs, the VONC was restricted to former Party Leaders, how would Boris fare.

    So we have:

    Sir John Major
    Lord Hague
    Sir Iain Duncan Smith
    Lord Howard
    David Cameron
    Theresa May

    Would BJ get a single vote?

    Telling.


    Absolutely. I’d vote for Boris over Major, IDS, and TMay, for sure. All of them twats. Major is one of the reasons for Brexit, and he is still at it. Fuckwit

    Dunno about Cameron and Howard. Close call

    Hague is the real missed opportunity. A super bright guy, very charming, articulate, humane, sensitive. Could have been a splendid prime minister, but made his pitch at precisely the wrong moment

    I’d certainly go for Hague over Boris
    How interesting! You imply that you are a former party leader? The premise is that the vote is restricted to those. Which of this list do we think is most likely to be masquerading as Leon?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994

    MrEd said:

    Leon said:

    A great oak is being felled in the forest. By a team of incel dwarves. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the canopy will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times

    An amusing turn of phrase, but if you are referring to Johnson I think he might be better described as an overgrown Leylandii. Out of control, shallow routed and blocking out the light while sapping all the nutrient from the soil. The sooner the dwarfs get their axes aligned the better. They would be wise not to plant one of his species ever again.
    How about Japanese Knotweed?
    Bloody hell, I hope he's easier to get rid of than Japanese knotweed!
    I had a close shave with the old knotweed in our garden in France. Noticed a clump of it in an overgrown area in 2015 and freaked out. I studied the various ways of attempting to remove it and concluded the only chance I had was to drown it repeatedly in glyphosate every chance I had, and then reapply it as soon as any new growth came through.

    Wasn't hopeful, as the roadsides around there have quite a lot of it and despite municipal cutting, digging out and generous applications of glyphosate they always seem to survive and come back.

    I was saved by - I think - being obsessively regular with my weedkiller applications, and an extremely hot and dry summer which probably saved the day. It disappeared and, to date, has never come back.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    edited June 2022

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    I don't believe even Number Ten are that stupid because winning while being wounded does not equal being safe.
    Describe unsafe to us Bondy.

    120 or less against and he gets the summer and autumn if not the full year for a fight back.

    145 or higher against him, how exactly do they prize him out in the coming months?

    And between safe at 120 and badly wounded at 150 against, what number are you saying makes it 100% certain he is out this year?

    I stand by what I put out there, the possibility that seeing the drip drip slide in the wrong direction in the last fortnight, and the two by elections on horizon, this Monday evenings vote was engineered by Number ten to take back control of the situation.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    Douglas Ross described as having the 'tactical ingenuity of a coma patient' by Guido. Too harsh, or not harsh enough?

    Ross managed to triangulate to the position that would infuriate everyone.

    Inverted genius.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,525
    Cookie said:

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1533856778538082304

    The absolute disconnect of this.

    You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.

    But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.

    Absolute sense from Mr H

    Not really. You can argue that individuals should be free to say what they like but that the state, in the form of state schools, shouldn't be pushing one side of the culture wars.
    Yep. Mr H is completely wrong there. All the more so given that so much of the so called 'woke' agenda involves denying people freedom of speech based on the idea that we should not be allowed to say things that might hurt people's feelings. Wit that comment it appears that David Herdson has bought into the Newspeak mythology.

    And that is in spite of the fact that, as a rule, J H-B is wrong in everything she says and does.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    My prediction: Johnson wins, there are between 100 and 120 votes against. His loyalists will declare that the issue is closed. Within two weeks it will all start again.

    It won't be two weeks - it will be immediate

    That would require significant resignations in terms of either numbers or key individuals. I can't see either happening. Johnson picked his payroll well.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Jessica Elgot
    @jessicaelgot
    ·
    5m
    Theresa May has arrived to vote in a full ballgown

    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,008
    Apple just announced shared image libraries, where it can be based on things like who is in the photo.....e.g. you, your partner, your kids, all to you family shared library

    I give it 10 seconds until photos are automatically being sent to that shared libary that are "embarrassing".
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    145 declared for Johnson, 45 against and 169 undeclared so far, according to this:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kjL8FEg8iWmleZxOph3Gg69wM7ODhrPO1X-BwjJ407I/edit#gid=0

    Presumably that 145 includes all the payroll... but surely Mandy Rice-Davies applies to them?

    If 145 declared i think bojo is "safe" .

    Maybe.

    Fatally wounded but survives today.

    Poasibly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Beware herding on the result.

    There are no rules here and the range of potential results is vast. So there's value in the margins.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MISTY said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16. ;)

    It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.

    It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
    This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
    In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
    Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson.
    Agree! He wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes with Mrs Thatcher... I was musing the other day that HMQ started with Churchill and may end with Boris (actually it looks Boris won't be her last PM)

    What went wrong in the interim? ;)
    Why are you still defending him then?
    Someone has to? ;)

    I'm just not a fan of getting rid of PM's in the middle of a Parliament especially when they've been elected with such a strong endorsement.

    The British people elected him (with a histrionically very large majority and share of the vote) they should be the one's to remove him.

    At least I'm consistent as I didn't agree with Thatch being removed in 1990 or the Blair coup in 2006 though I think May's defenestration was fair enough as the voters had already stripped her of her power in the 2017 election.

    But whatever I think it looks as though he's finished so we'll see what happens.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    DavidL said:

    In fairness to Douglas Ross he has stuck his neck out here. If Boris survives he has to resign. He could have just voted out quietly in a secret ballot but he hasn't. I think most of the other Scottish MPs will follow him on this. In fact, I become more and more convinced that Boris is going to lose this. Close, but I think he loses. A convicted liar as PM just will not do.

    I have considerable trepdiation about what comes next.

    Fantastic news. If BJ manages to deliver perhaps the Tories could anoint David Duguid as leader. He's dead good.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874


    I actually meant who of them would vote to keep BJ as PM.

    But I agree with you about Hague. He could have been great. But it was a disastrous decision for him to stand as leader in 97. Should have stuck as Howard's number 2. I think I read that Tony Blair had a high regard for Hague personally speaking but had little time for IDS or Howard.

    Hague found himself propelled to leadership in 1997 - once Howard had been fatally wounded by Ann Widdecombe's jibe, Hague, who would have been Howard's deputy, suddenly found himself in the limelight.

    Had, for example, Howard won in 1997, Hague might have taken over in 2001 or there might even have been a Cameron vs Hague vs Davis battle in 2005.

    The conclusion is it's all Ann Widdecombe's fault (apparently).
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    She knows something we don't know:

    Theresa May has turned up in a ball gown

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1533862914679091202

    Is that appropriate attire to dance on someone's political grave?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    Leon said:

    A thought experiment. If, instead of Tory MPs, the VONC was restricted to former Party Leaders, how would Boris fare.

    So we have:

    Sir John Major
    Lord Hague
    Sir Iain Duncan Smith
    Lord Howard
    David Cameron
    Theresa May

    Would BJ get a single vote?

    Telling.


    Absolutely. I’d vote for Boris over Major, IDS, and TMay, for sure. All of them twats. Major is one of the reasons for Brexit, and he is still at it. Fuckwit

    Dunno about Cameron and Howard. Close call

    Hague is the real missed opportunity. A super bright guy, very charming, articulate, humane, sensitive. Could have been a splendid prime minister, but made his pitch at precisely the wrong moment

    I’d certainly go for Hague over Boris
    I actually meant who of them would vote to keep BJ as PM.

    But I agree with you about Hague. He could have been great. But it was a disastrous decision for him to stand as leader in 97. Should have stuck as Howard's number 2. I think I read that Tony Blair had a high regard for Hague personally speaking but had little time for IDS or Howard.
    Hague is a bit smug and (ironically) too fond of the sound of his own voice.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526

    Do we know what time the result is expected to be announced?

    845ish, they said.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    If 145 declared for Boris, it's all over. He's won. He's going nowhere.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    MY prediction for tonight is 242 for Boris and 117 against. It'll be nice for the two Conservative Deputy Speakers to cast a vote because they don't usually in the Commons.

    226-133
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,059

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    I don't believe even Number Ten are that stupid because winning while being wounded does not equal being safe.
    Describe unsafe to us Bondy.

    120 or less against and he gets the summer and autumn if not the full year for a fight back.

    145 or higher against him, how exactly do they prize him out in the coming months?

    And between safe at 120 and badly wounded at 150 against, what number are you saying makes it 100% certain he is out this year?
    Unsafe is a fetid open wound turning gangrenous. To have even 120 of your own MPs known to oppose your leadership means all authority drains away from the PM, just as the pus from the wound would need draining. He's a lame duck. The Conservative brand is degraded every day.

    How do they prize him out? One amusing way is to imagine what happens the Privileges Committee reports on Johnson and the Commons votes on their findings. You know there are more than enough Tories opposed to Johnson that the Commons could vote for a suspension. You think the PM could survive being suspended from the Commons for having misled it?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    She knows something we don't know:

    Theresa May has turned up in a ball gown

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1533862914679091202

    Is that appropriate attire to dance on someone's political grave?
    If she was fat, then perhaps she would be warming up to sing?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811

    If 145 declared for Boris, it's all over. He's won. He's going nowhere.

    I don't think all of those 145 declared will vote in favour.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447

    If 145 declared for Boris, it's all over. He's won. He's going nowhere.

    Less than half of all Tory MPs going public in support of their sitting Prime Minister is piss poor.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094
    edited June 2022

    If 145 declared for Boris, it's all over. He's won. He's going nowhere.

    There's a reason a lot of rebels and commentators have spent all day speculating how big a win makes him 'safe'. The rebels hope for victory, there's obviously a chance even now as half are undeclared, but they feel more confident about arguing 130/140 means he is fatally undermined.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,262
    Farooq said:

    A great tower is being felled in Mordor. By a team of incel hobbits. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the bruised sky will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times. Nine for mortal men doomed to die.

    For not attributing the idea, I’ll set Christopher Tolkien on you.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,059

    Cookie said:

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1533856778538082304

    The absolute disconnect of this.

    You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.

    But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.

    Absolute sense from Mr H

    Not really. You can argue that individuals should be free to say what they like but that the state, in the form of state schools, shouldn't be pushing one side of the culture wars.
    Yep. Mr H is completely wrong there. All the more so given that so much of the so called 'woke' agenda involves denying people freedom of speech based on the idea that we should not be allowed to say things that might hurt people's feelings. Wit that comment it appears that David Herdson has bought into the Newspeak mythology.

    And that is in spite of the fact that, as a rule, J H-B is wrong in everything she says and does.
    The people whose feelings are most hurt and go on about it the most are the likes of JHB.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    If 145 declared for Boris, it's all over. He's won. He's going nowhere.

    Of course he's going nowhere. He was never going anywhere. He's safe until the next election at least. Why would Conservative MPs dethrone Johnson when they kept May after she threw away their majority?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    Apple just announced shared image libraries, where it can be based on things like who is in the photo.....e.g. you, your partner, your kids, all to you family shared library

    I give it 10 seconds until photos are automatically being sent to that shared libary that are "embarrassing".

    Not now Apple. We have a leadership VONC to watch. Jeez...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,525
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MISTY said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16. ;)

    It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.

    It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
    This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
    In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
    Mrs Thatcher would have been absolutely disgusted with Johnson.
    Agree! He wouldn't have lasted 5 minutes with Mrs Thatcher... I was musing the other day that HMQ started with Churchill and may end with Boris (actually it looks Boris won't be her last PM)

    What went wrong in the interim? ;)
    Why are you still defending him then?
    Someone has to? ;)

    I'm just not a fan of getting rid of PM's in the middle of a Parliament especially when they've been elected with such a strong endorsement.

    The British people elected him (with a histrionically very large majority and share of the vote) they should be the one's to remove him.

    At least I'm consistent as I didn't agree with Thatch being removed in 1990 or the Blair coup in 2006 though I think May's defenestration was fair enough as the voters had already stripped her of her power in the 2017 election.

    But whatever I think it looks as though he's finished so we'll see what happens.
    The British people did not elect him. A minority of the British electorate voted for a series of Tory MPs. Those MPs then decided who should be PM and have just as much right to change their minds now.

    Now I happen to think that the FPTP system is a good one but I would never claim that it meant that the British people voted for a PM because they did not, either legally, practically or even theoretically.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Alistair said:

    145 declared for Johnson, 45 against and 169 undeclared so far, according to this:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kjL8FEg8iWmleZxOph3Gg69wM7ODhrPO1X-BwjJ407I/edit#gid=0

    Presumably that 145 includes all the payroll... but surely Mandy Rice-Davies applies to them?

    If 145 declared i think bojo is "safe" .

    Maybe.

    Fatally wounded but survives today.

    Poasibly.
    Tmay had 50% declared for her by lunchtime allegedly

    Asymmetry applies, declaring for is easier than against
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565

    She knows something we don't know:

    Theresa May has turned up in a ball gown

    https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1533862914679091202

    Is that appropriate attire to dance on someone's political grave?
    Depends if the heels are a trip hazard.....
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Declaring for is not the same as voting for.

    Just pledging to donate $7million is not the same as actually handing over the cash.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,008

    Apple just announced shared image libraries, where it can be based on things like who is in the photo.....e.g. you, your partner, your kids, all to you family shared library

    I give it 10 seconds until photos are automatically being sent to that shared libary that are "embarrassing".

    Not now Apple. We have a leadership VONC to watch. Jeez...
    I wouldn't suggest Boris gets an iPhone....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Alistair said:

    145 declared for Johnson, 45 against and 169 undeclared so far, according to this:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kjL8FEg8iWmleZxOph3Gg69wM7ODhrPO1X-BwjJ407I/edit#gid=0

    Presumably that 145 includes all the payroll... but surely Mandy Rice-Davies applies to them?

    If 145 declared i think bojo is "safe" .

    Maybe.

    Fatally wounded but survives today.

    Poasibly.
    The herding is around 130-150 votes against him, with 170 at the upper limits.

    However, it's worth bearing in mind that over 200 Tory MPs have failed to publicly back him and not everyone who's declared for him will be telling the truth.

    I now think he's got a 65:35 chance of mathematically surviving and it's possible (just possible) we're in for a shock tonight.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    Farooq said:

    A great tower is being felled in Mordor. By a team of incel hobbits. And no one but me realises that a mighty epoch is passing, and the bruised sky will never be the same. I feel need to say this 9 times. Nine for mortal men doomed to die.

    For not attributing the idea, I’ll set Christopher Tolkien on you.
    Won't do you much good. He died in 2020
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    "Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"

    Bruce Anderson (Reaction)

    Shit like that is completely out of order and makes me want to support Boris again. FFS
    Yes, you're desperately trying to find some external stimulus to excuse you swinging back behind Big Dog. Your heart's still with him.
    Actually, it’s not. I despise many of the people attacking him. And I REALLY mean despise. Awful people. C*nts. Remoaners. 2nd voters like Starmer. Scot Nats. The very dregs of the swill, of the uttermost vomit of the earth.

    UGH

    And yet, I’ve now had THREE large gins in Tbilisi and…. To be honest… I am finding it hard to work up a head of steam in terms of an argument as to why Boris should stay. There just isn’t one, really. OK his worst enemies are vile. But, what are the positives?? Why vote BORIS?
    Yeah, you can't find the arguments because your head knows he has to go.
    But you want him. You want him to stay. The heart has its reasons.
    .. of which reason knows nothing

    God bless Pascal. A superb insight, superbly phrased

    Yeah this time my head says Nah, Boris has to go and all my heart can do is beat ominously and point a ventricle at Jolyon Maugham and the Lib Dems and Sir Beer Korma. It’s not enough. They are scum but it’s not enough. The country needs a better government. That’s the reason I voted Brexit, FFS, so we could choose better governments, which make ALL the crucial decisions

    Sorry, Boris, my old boss. This is it

    "That’s the reason I voted Brexit, FFS, so we could choose better governments, which make ALL the crucial decisions". 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    The slight problem is that the Brexiteer movement comes from the most braindead end of the Conservative movement 🤣🤣. It is like Magdalene College Cambridge having to choose it's next University Challenge Team from the Land Economy department.
    Emojis do not become you, as mourning did not flatter Electra. That is all I can say
    I thought mourning did become her? Unlike her I do not seek vengeance, as I only focus on lurve! I do have a weakness for mockery, and I accept I may have overdone the emojis. Apparently to use more than one emoji is a "boomer" thing, though I am quite not in that category, though I think perhaps you are? 🤣
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,525

    Cookie said:

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1533856778538082304

    The absolute disconnect of this.

    You can either defend free speech or you can try to regulate what is said in, say, schools. You can't do both.

    But of course, she doesn't really want free speech. She just wants to be the one regulating it.

    Absolute sense from Mr H

    Not really. You can argue that individuals should be free to say what they like but that the state, in the form of state schools, shouldn't be pushing one side of the culture wars.
    Yep. Mr H is completely wrong there. All the more so given that so much of the so called 'woke' agenda involves denying people freedom of speech based on the idea that we should not be allowed to say things that might hurt people's feelings. Wit that comment it appears that David Herdson has bought into the Newspeak mythology.

    And that is in spite of the fact that, as a rule, J H-B is wrong in everything she says and does.
    The people whose feelings are most hurt and go on about it the most are the likes of JHB.
    Well indeed. As I say I am not defending her but there is a logic to what she says. You do not defend and enhance free speech by making rules about what can and cannot be said. Which is very much the agenda being followed at the moment in many institutions.

    I avoid this time using the word 'woke'. I only used it in my last reply because it was the term that had been used in the original posting. I think it is a much abused and pointless term which adds nothing of meaning to an otherwise serious debate.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    If 145 declared for Boris, it's all over. He's won. He's going nowhere.

    Depends what you mean by win;

    163 MPs publicly backed May. She got 200 votes. If 37 more back Johnson than are public he'd get 182... (or 177 if you're using
    @johnestevens's list).


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1533862013503520768

    It's hard for BoJo not to get to 180, incredible, really. But for all Lord BoJo and his pals will try to claim that 1 vote is enough, it would be the beginning of the end. The practical victory threshold is probably around 240 for:120 against, which seems a long way off.

    Stand by for a run on grey suits...
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    What we will almost certainly be able to say after today is that the majority of the Commons does not have confidence in the Prime Minister.

    That will make governing extremely challenging, regardless of a theoretical big majority and that the majority of your party thinks you're okay.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565

    If 145 declared for Boris, it's all over. He's won. He's going nowhere.

    Less than half of all Tory MPs going public in support of their sitting Prime Minister is piss poor.
    Especially if that implies their voting intention!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    If 145 declared for Boris, it's all over. He's won. He's going nowhere.

    Depends what you mean by win;

    163 MPs publicly backed May. She got 200 votes. If 37 more back Johnson than are public he'd get 182... (or 177 if you're using
    @johnestevens's list).


    https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1533862013503520768

    It's hard for BoJo not to get to 180, incredible, really. But for all Lord BoJo and his pals will try to claim that 1 vote is enough, it would be the beginning of the end. The practical victory threshold is probably around 240 for:120 against, which seems a long way off.

    Stand by for a run on grey suits...
    I guess also given his ruthlessness there may be far more public backers, private sackers for Johnson than May had.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    Are there good reasons why someone who's minded to vote FOR Johnson would not say so publicly?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,826

    DavidL said:

    In fairness to Douglas Ross he has stuck his neck out here. If Boris survives he has to resign. He could have just voted out quietly in a secret ballot but he hasn't. I think most of the other Scottish MPs will follow him on this. In fact, I become more and more convinced that Boris is going to lose this. Close, but I think he loses. A convicted liar as PM just will not do.

    I have considerable trepdiation about what comes next.

    Fantastic news. If BJ manages to deliver perhaps the Tories could anoint David Duguid as leader. He's dead good.
    David Duguid may be closer to dead than good but he is also irrelevant as he is an MP not an MSP.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506

    My prediction: Johnson wins, there are between 100 and 120 votes against. His loyalists will declare that the issue is closed. Within two weeks it will all start again.

    It won't be two weeks - it will be immediate

    That would require significant resignations in terms of either numbers or key individuals. I can't see either happening. Johnson picked his payroll well.

    I wasn’t around in 1990, but Lady thatcher used all the best talent available to her I understand, unlike Johnson who uses useless cheerleaders, so Lady Thatcher had europhile wets resigning because she done the right thing, Boris won’t get any resignations because he’s done the wrong thing.

    Going back to what Big G said, you are wrong Big G. If Boris has only 120 or less voting against him, it changes the narrative of this, it won’t carry on with how it’s been the last few weeks, even the loss of one or both by elections would produce a more mooted response with the vonc won and the rally round battle back on.

    I am beginning to think Team Boris might have played a blinder in taking back control today. I certainly think it was their idea to hold it Monday night, so the MPs have no newspaper editorials telling them what to do.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,008
    Roger said:

    Anyone else have sneaky suspicion Number Ten engineered the timing of this putting votes in themselves? Even the chat with Brady to make it today I doubt it was pushed by Brady.

    Obviously Johnson wins this. The calculation number 10 has made is timing of the VONC to give them best possible result, in fewest number against. Before the by elections obviously. Announced Monday morning held Monday evening looks like Number 10 idea too.

    I wonder if, not just the by elections coming, they fear something else coming out that’s damaging soon. Damaging in the sense of it makes 145 against him if held in 4 weeks time not the 120 today.

    If they keep it to 120 or less against, he’s safe for a year at least isn’t he?

    If he loses a third of his mps he will not last the summer
    Do you have a track record of getting a single prediction right? Or even maintaining the same prediction for more than two consecutive days?
    People in glass houses....
  • KeystoneKeystone Posts: 127

    Leon said:

    A thought experiment. If, instead of Tory MPs, the VONC was restricted to former Party Leaders, how would Boris fare.

    So we have:

    Sir John Major
    Lord Hague
    Sir Iain Duncan Smith
    Lord Howard
    David Cameron
    Theresa May

    Would BJ get a single vote?

    Telling.


    Absolutely. I’d vote for Boris over Major, IDS, and TMay, for sure. All of them twats. Major is one of the reasons for Brexit, and he is still at it. Fuckwit

    Dunno about Cameron and Howard. Close call

    Hague is the real missed opportunity. A super bright guy, very charming, articulate, humane, sensitive. Could have been a splendid prime minister, but made his pitch at precisely the wrong moment

    I’d certainly go for Hague over Boris
    How interesting! You imply that you are a former party leader? The premise is that the vote is restricted to those. Which of this list do we think is most likely to be masquerading as Leon?
    IDS - Leon is his misanthropic "Tom Jones" alter ego.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,094

    I have got absolutely bloody nothing done today.

    In order to determine the significance of the comment I'm afraid we must ask if that is unusual?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Alistair said:

    145 declared for Johnson, 45 against and 169 undeclared so far, according to this:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kjL8FEg8iWmleZxOph3Gg69wM7ODhrPO1X-BwjJ407I/edit#gid=0

    Presumably that 145 includes all the payroll... but surely Mandy Rice-Davies applies to them?

    If 145 declared i think bojo is "safe" .

    Maybe.

    Fatally wounded but survives today.

    Poasibly.
    Nah. He should be getting a bare majority if declarations for.

    I think each side will get 150. It’s that 60 or so votes in the middle that will be crucial.

    Honestly though I don’t think it matters. No matter the spinning if over 150 MPs want him out he’s not going to last much longer.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Taz said:

    Roger said:

    JR-M saying 'a one vote win is enough!'

    'Tell that to Theresa' we hoped Chris Mason would ask.

    (He's not sharp like Laura K. How we miss her)

    Victoria Derbyshire already did this morning and he said he realised he was wrong when he said that ability Theresa May.
    JRM. Not even slightly embarrassed by his own blatant rank hypocrisy. You don't see "fostering a secure sense of class superiority" on the curriculum at our elite public schools but it's there alright.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    145 declared for Johnson, 45 against and 169 undeclared so far, according to this:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kjL8FEg8iWmleZxOph3Gg69wM7ODhrPO1X-BwjJ407I/edit#gid=0

    Presumably that 145 includes all the payroll... but surely Mandy Rice-Davies applies to them?

    If 145 declared i think bojo is "safe" .

    Maybe.

    Fatally wounded but survives today.

    Poasibly.
    The herding is around 130-150 votes against him, with 170 at the upper limits.

    However, it's worth bearing in mind that over 200 Tory MPs have failed to publicly back him and not everyone who's declared for him will be telling the truth.

    I now think he's got a 65:35 chance of mathematically surviving and it's possible (just possible) we're in for a shock tonight.
    Yes, my error bands are enourmas.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,826

    Are there good reasons why someone who's minded to vote FOR Johnson would not say so publicly?

    Seriously? LOL
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    Are there good reasons why someone who's minded to vote FOR Johnson would not say so publicly?

    Plenty, sadly. They may fear a voter backlash in the next GE.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    DougSeal said:

    If 145 declared for Boris, it's all over. He's won. He's going nowhere.

    Of course he's going nowhere. He was never going anywhere. He's safe until the next election at least. Why would Conservative MPs dethrone Johnson when they kept May after she threw away their majority?
    It worked for May, not against her, that there was a hung parliament with Corbyn in the wings - any new leader will inherit a solid Tory majority.

    Also, I'm also starting to think the lack of a clear inheritor for the leadership is working against Boris not for him now: every wing of the party can project their own potential victory onto the post Boris blank slate.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Are there good reasons why someone who's minded to vote FOR Johnson would not say so publicly?

    Might not want to antagonise the new leader?
This discussion has been closed.