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The ConservativeHome poll is bad news for Johnson – politicalbetting.com

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  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795

    Is there a single Tory voter on here rooting for Boris to survive?

    HYUFD?

    He's a welsh nationalist, not a Tory.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    This is significant. Syms was a player in the removal of IDS as Tory leader https://twitter.com/RobertSyms/status/1533837947174277120
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Sean_F said:

    BF price on losing is edging out.

    6.4 now

    I'd say it's 35-40% chance Boris loses outright now (and that's up from c.20% this morning)

    So those odds are value. I've certainly topped up.
    I put £70 on Boris losing at 4/1. These odds seem as mispriced to me as at the time of the Brexit and US Presidential votes in 2016.
    Unfortunately, in Italy at the moment so can’t bet but i’m tempted to put money on BJ being ousted.

    having said that, there’s a lot of first time Tory MPs in RW seats who will be thinking “if he goes, so do I”. That may save him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357

    He is still more than 50 public pledges short of what he needs with less than an hour to go.

    That assumes some of the "public pledges" might not be rethinking after his 22 performance.

    Or outright lying. Especially if they have a Boris-inclined Red Wall electorate. "I was sorry to see him go, but it was the will of the Party...."
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    edited June 2022
    Anyone remember how leaky the vote was last time as they came in and were counted?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    Scott_xP said:

    I understand @Douglas4Moray has decided to vote AGAINST @BorisJohnson tonight, completing a double u-turn on PM’s future

    Statement expected shortly

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1533835725367541762

    Triple ferret with pike. Hes become a joke
    Yiu surely mean an even BIGGER joke Wooly
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    edited June 2022

    That 'contrition' line didn't last long:

    Patrick Maguire @patrickkmaguire

    Asked about the conduct described in the Sue Gray report, Boris Johnson told MPs: "I'd do it again."


    Mind you, this might be one of those rare occasions where Boris is speaking the truth.

    Yes indeed. One hopes that a few more MPs will pipe up to note that it means he was lying when he pretended contrition and humility, particularly given his defenders going on about how everyone likes to get pissed etc. So he has undermined his own justification for moving on, which involved accepting there was a problem.

    But the tactic is clear - this is petty nonsense, leave me along to rule.

    MPs, and the public, can focus on petty things, it is true. But the public still choose the MPs and the MPs choose their leader, if they want to go petty put up with it, don't whinge about it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    "Is this the most worthless man ever to become PM?"

    Bruce Anderson (Reaction)

    Gosh is that miserable old duffer still going (Bruce, not Boris) ? ;)

    I thought a lot of those dour, right wing bores like Anderson, Heffer and Oborne had quietly dropped off the scene these past few years...
    Bruce Anderson of course wrote an article in the 1997 general election campaign saying why John Major would be re elected
    That was a inaccurate prediction of the future, stating that our current PM is worthless is just an established fact.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772

    He is still more than 50 public pledges short of what he needs with less than an hour to go.

    There is no way the govt would have held back statements of support after the 1922.

    I think he’s done for. Or at the very least there’s going to be a 10-20 vote margin in it which no matter what they say has exactly the same result.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795

    Surely now is the time for a big name to come out and say they aren't supporting Johnson.

    I see Penny Mordaunt hasn't confirmed her support. Time for a resignation statement?

    If Sunak wants this, he has about 50mins to try and seize the crown.

    Patel has already run off with it. Hence the need for her spad to put out a "she looks forward" to statement because she's slithered off somewhere.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    Steve Baker continuing to vote against Johnson. Expects him to win but take a big hit.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    Surely now is the time for a big name to come out and say they aren't supporting Johnson.

    I see Penny Mordaunt hasn't confirmed her support. Time for a resignation statement?

    If Sunak wants this, he has about 50mins to try and seize the crown.

    Four months too late for Sunak.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Chris said:

    Big_Ian said:

    Time for Operation Euthanise Big Dog

    Big Dog's back legs have gone. And some in the party want to fit him with a set of wheels on those now useless back legs. "You see - he can still get about...."

    For God's sake, do the decent thing and take him to the vets, Conservative Party.
    Replacing Boris with an actual dog as PM would be a clear improvement.
    The thing is, dogs are intelligent, faithful, brave and affectionate.

    Boris Johnson isn't really much like a dog at all.

    Apart from the wanting to have sex with everything in sight, including pieces of furniture.
    :smiley:
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    We will miss the Bozzmeister when he’s gone

    Like a painful bowel blockage.
    You wait. I give it six weeks of Starmer versus Hunt or Starmer versus Wallace and we will all be screaming with boredom - and, despite Johnson’s departure, neither side will be able to do anything about our various problems as so many are global and systemic and baked-in, and we won’t even have the Bozzmonstah to be our amusing panto villain, or just to be amusing. No more Sir Beer Korma

    He is Sir John Falstaff, and we will miss the cakes and ale
    Just need to reintroduce FOM, get rid of border checks and hey presto, sunny uplands.
    FOM tied into residency eligibility for benefits (contribution based) and I'm with you.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    The best "reward" for those supporting BoZo tonight is that they win by a single vote.

    Another year (maybe less) of abject misery.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Stocky said:

    Surely the rational thing to do would be to say you are supporting the PM but secretly vote against him.

    It would be to say nothing. Say you support him and he loses, you may have a black mark. Say you vote for his removal and that fails, ditto.

    one thing to remember re public disclosures. A lot of the Tory MPs are not only new to Parliament, they’re new to the whole politics game. They may not play things in the way normally expected.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    Surely now is the time for a big name to come out and say they aren't supporting Johnson.

    I see Penny Mordaunt hasn't confirmed her support. Time for a resignation statement?

    If Sunak wants this, he has about 50mins to try and seize the crown.

    Too late. He cannot come out and say only now has he realised the PM must go.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    fitalass said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I understand @Douglas4Moray has decided to vote AGAINST @BorisJohnson tonight, completing a double u-turn on PM’s future

    Statement expected shortly

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1533835725367541762

    Not surprised, I have not seen any Scottish Conservative MPs apart from Scotland Minister Alastair Jack come out in support of Boris today.
    Crikey is Jack still alive, he must have the cushiest job in the world, 250K in his pocket a year for nothing.
    At least we hear Ross making a right tit of himself now and again.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Mood update. Grimmer. Boris supporters feel his campaign is poorly organised. Insufficient organisation amongst whips and No.10. Wavering MPs not being called.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1533844882955051008
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1m
    Mood update. Grimmer. Boris supporters feel his campaign is poorly organised. Insufficient organisation amongst whips and No.10. Wavering MPs not being called.

    Dan, say "mood" one more time, I dare you, I double dare you...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Not only is he not sorry but according to this he'd do it all again.

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224?s=21&t=9fcTwTP1dl_jZlN12IairA
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    IshmaelZ said:

    Yay, can bet with betfair despite Italy

    Lose in to 6 now. Can't say that's not value when it's the outcome tipped by the trinity of @AlastairMeeks @Richard_Nabavi and @david_herdson

    200-249 votes against is in to 27 now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    Chris said:

    Big_Ian said:

    Time for Operation Euthanise Big Dog

    Big Dog's back legs have gone. And some in the party want to fit him with a set of wheels on those now useless back legs. "You see - he can still get about...."

    For God's sake, do the decent thing and take him to the vets, Conservative Party.
    Replacing Boris with an actual dog as PM would be a clear improvement.
    The thing is, dogs are intelligent, faithful, brave and affectionate.

    Boris Johnson isn't really much like a dog at all.

    Apart from the wanting to have sex with everything in sight, including pieces of furniture.
    Untrue, I can also see him shitting on the carpet.

    Or is that Amber Heard?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    kle4 said:

    Surely now is the time for a big name to come out and say they aren't supporting Johnson.

    I see Penny Mordaunt hasn't confirmed her support. Time for a resignation statement?

    If Sunak wants this, he has about 50mins to try and seize the crown.

    Too late. He cannot come out and say only now has he realised the PM must go.
    "Having listened to this evening's 1922 debate I have reluctantly come to the conclusion that the PM has not shown he has the contrition and humility to carry on. In particular, his comment, that he would do it all again, was for me a last straw. I have myself been fined for an event at Downing Street, and I am mortified by this fact and would certainly not do it all again. It is with a heavy heart therefore..."
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    Scott_xP said:

    Mood update. Grimmer. Boris supporters feel his campaign is poorly organised. Insufficient organisation amongst whips and No.10. Wavering MPs not being called.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1533844882955051008

    Poorly organised? Boris? Surely some mistake
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    Scott_xP said:

    Mood update. Grimmer. Boris supporters feel his campaign is poorly organised. Insufficient organisation amongst whips and No.10. Wavering MPs not being called.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1533844882955051008

    On the plus side the disco lights are working beautifully with the wallpaper and the wine is flowing.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    malcolmg said:

    fitalass said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I understand @Douglas4Moray has decided to vote AGAINST @BorisJohnson tonight, completing a double u-turn on PM’s future

    Statement expected shortly

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1533835725367541762

    Not surprised, I have not seen any Scottish Conservative MPs apart from Scotland Minister Alastair Jack come out in support of Boris today.
    Crikey is Jack still alive, he must have the cushiest job in the world, 250K in his pocket a year for nothing.
    At least we hear Ross making a right tit of himself now and again.
    It'd almost be worth Boris surviving comfortably to have Ross trying to work out how to reverse-reverse-ferret his position. "I wanted you out initially, then I retracted it, I didn't send a letter to Brady but then I voted against you, but now you're still here I think you're great, but please resign after Ukraine's solved".

    Almost.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    That's quite funny really
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Alexa, define 'irony'
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    edited June 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Cruella says on BBC World that one vote in Johnson's favour is decisive.

    That's setting a rather low bar. Even he will vote for himself.
    I realised my error moments after the edit expired "one winning vote in his favour". Although Suella being Suella, one vote might just be the bar.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Two MPs have told me they were expecting a call from Johnson or the whips but have heard nothing. One says: "I was at least expecting to be asked." Complacency setting in?
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1533845941328945153
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited June 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    Not only is he not sorry but according to this he'd do it all again.

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224?s=21&t=9fcTwTP1dl_jZlN12IairA

    That's a completely crazy stance for him to take in his current weak position, as mentioned a bit earlier.

    Unless he's even feeling kamikaze, and maintaining his ego and self-identity is paramount.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    Can I just say that its days like this that make me absolutely fucking adore politics. There is no need to watch soap operas when we have reality to watch that is more gripping than any fiction.

    Thanks so much to all of you - especially the people I disagree with - for being here making this forum what it is. And thanks to OGH, TSE, RCS for keeping it running.

    Yeah. It's ace isn't, it?
    There's something quite heady about being in the know as well.
    Don't think the general public has caught up with this yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    edited June 2022
    biggles said:

    Actually, if Boris goes I wonder if Farage will fancy another comeback tour?

    Against Hunt or Sunak he certainly would, probably not if Mordaunt or Wallace or Truss
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Alexa, define 'irony'
    56% for LLG though, which is in line with (in fact at the higher end of) the recent range. R&W just seem to uprate the Greens compared with other pollsters. Though high for REFUK too.

    The Lib Dems have moved from around 7-8% last year to regularly 10-12% now.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    With one hour to go until voting starts there are 49 members of the so-called payroll vote* who have not expressed public support for Boris Johnson.

    * Not of all them are paid.

    Of this group

    19 are Ministers
    4 are whips
    26 are PPSs (ministerial aides)

    My view is that Johnson needs around 70% of this payroll vote to survive the vote - which means he can't have more than 40 not vote for him.


    https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1533844316812193795
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1m
    Mood update. Grimmer. Boris supporters feel his campaign is poorly organised. Insufficient organisation amongst whips and No.10. Wavering MPs not being called.

    How does Hodges know? I doubt anyone of any significance talks to him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    I would love to see the memoires if Boris loses and he says it was the Palace wot dun it with that damn bible passage about honour at the weekend.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Scott_xP said:

    Two MPs have told me they were expecting a call from Johnson or the whips but have heard nothing. One says: "I was at least expecting to be asked." Complacency setting in?
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1533845941328945153

    Why not sheer incompetence?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,729
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I understand @Douglas4Moray has decided to vote AGAINST @BorisJohnson tonight, completing a double u-turn on PM’s future

    Statement expected shortly

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1533835725367541762

    Triple ferret with pike. Hes become a joke
    Yiu surely mean an even BIGGER joke Wooly
    Nah. This is plain wrong.

    Douglas Ross was the first MP to put his head above the parapet way back when. Withdrew his VONC due to Ukraine, but given that its happening anyway, will vote against Boris. Not that tortuous.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Alexa, define 'irony'
    What it does show is Starmer has not sealed the deal and the conservatives can win the next GE if they make the right leader decisions in the next few weeks
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Two MPs have told me they were expecting a call from Johnson or the whips but have heard nothing. One says: "I was at least expecting to be asked." Complacency setting in?
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1533845941328945153

    Why not sheer incompetence?
    Maybe deep down their heart isn't in it? Times was saying yesterday that the old Big Dog shadow whipping operation is not up and running and some have even been on holiday.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Labour will tomorrow force a vote in Parliament to clean up politics.

    Boris Johnson has demeaned his office and downgraded standards.

    We are urging MPs of all parties to back a package of reforms to strengthen standards in public life.

    It’s time to stop the rot.

    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1533846560097853440



    So Tory MPs can vote to keep the lawbreaker BoZo tonight, and against cleaning up politics tomorrow.

    The election leaflets are printing themselves...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Norman Tebbit: “I doubt if Boris will lead the party into the next general election. That seems clear to me."

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1533846717816356870
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Alexa, define 'irony'

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    While thats true, he is still massively unpopular in both spheres, just more so on PB.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795

    Today will be the first day since March 2020 that I have watched broadcast news.

    Have been away from here for too long.

    Whether tonight sees the end of Boris, I doubt. But it is the beginning of the end.

    Last month, for the first time since 1999, I voted for a party other than the Conservatives.

    I won't return to voting blue whilst Boris remains leader.

    The end can't come soon enough

    Welcome back
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    Or a post-Boris world priced in?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    With one hour to go until voting starts there are 49 members of the so-called payroll vote* who have not expressed public support for Boris Johnson.

    * Not of all them are paid.

    Of this group

    19 are Ministers
    4 are whips
    26 are PPSs (ministerial aides)

    My view is that Johnson needs around 70% of this payroll vote to survive the vote - which means he can't have more than 40 not vote for him.


    https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1533844316812193795

    Nothing from my MP, who has previously been loyal
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Alexa, define 'irony'
    Alexa, define "margin of error".
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Scott_xP said:

    This is significant. Syms was a player in the removal of IDS as Tory leader https://twitter.com/RobertSyms/status/1533837947174277120

    My MP. He said a couple of weeks ago something like "if there was a confidence vote it would be very difficult to support Boris", so this should have been pretty much priced in.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772

    Today will be the first day since March 2020 that I have watched broadcast news.

    Have been away from here for too long.

    Whether tonight sees the end of Boris, I doubt. But it is the beginning of the end.

    Last month, for the first time since 1999, I voted for a party other than the Conservatives.

    I won't return to voting blue whilst Boris remains leader.

    The end can't come soon enough

    Hear hear.

    I also refused to vote Tory last month.

    I will review the situation with a new leader but I remain unconvinced any of the candidates have what it takes to turn things around. But I will give them a fair hearing at least.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921

    MPs coming out of 1922 meeting are saying MPs want to "move on" and "forgive" and draw a line.

    Tee hee hee. Election disaster in GE is heading their way. The public 'aint gonna forget what he has done imho.

    Anything over 120 and they will cause chaos until Boris is gone

    He will be gone by July if not before
    I think that's right: more than a third of the parliamentary party voting for him to go is probably medium term terminal. Less than a quarter (i.e. 80 or less) and he's fine.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    Keir Starmer (37%, -1) leads Boris Johnson (31%, -2) by 6% in terms of who Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK at this moment.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Soon to be ex-Minister one suspects…

    That sound you heard was 100 UKGov lawyers face-palming in unison as their client admitted liability on Twitter. 🤦🏻‍♂️

    https://twitter.com/RoddyQC/status/1533818987645222914
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    Can't say I'm enjoying this. Especially as it feels like Dominic Cummings's revenge is being played out by press and mps.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    If BoZo survives tonight (still feels like he will) there will be another epic fuckup revealed in the coming days.

    the torture only ends when he does...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401

    PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.

    It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.

    But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    geoffw said:

    Can't say I'm enjoying this. Especially as it feels like Dominic Cummings's revenge is being played out by press and mps.

    Screw DomCum. Its not about him.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Alexa, define 'irony'
    Alexa, define "margin of error".
    Well yes that's true, but the symbolism was funny.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,037
    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I understand @Douglas4Moray has decided to vote AGAINST @BorisJohnson tonight, completing a double u-turn on PM’s future

    Statement expected shortly

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1533835725367541762

    Triple ferret with pike. Hes become a joke
    Yiu surely mean an even BIGGER joke Wooly
    Hehe Malcolm! He certainly wont be mentioned in despatches.
    New broom required
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Scott_xP said:

    Mood update. Grimmer. Boris supporters feel his campaign is poorly organised. Insufficient organisation amongst whips and No.10. Wavering MPs not being called.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1533844882955051008

    Boris supporters? The Union of Turd-Polishers complaining the stool won't take a shine...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    geoffw said:

    Can't say I'm enjoying this. Especially as it feels like Dominic Cummings's revenge is being played out by press and mps.

    I suspect Johnson is wholly the author of his own misfortune.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    One Tory MP describes the No10 campaign to shore up the PM's position as a group of "headless chickens" ... adds they are "amazed they didn’t have people calling [wavering MPs] within minutes of the announcement" the vote was coming
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1533848634034372609
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    200-249 votes against now in to 20 on Betfair.

    213 would be the equivalent of IDS, if my maths are correct.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    edited June 2022

    geoffw said:

    Can't say I'm enjoying this. Especially as it feels like Dominic Cummings's revenge is being played out by press and mps.

    Screw DomCum. Its not about him.
    If Boris goes, ironically Cummings will cease to be in any way relevant to anyone. And he’s proven he can’t be trusted to keep a confidence so his working future will look bleak.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    MrEd said:

    Sean_F said:

    BF price on losing is edging out.

    6.4 now

    I'd say it's 35-40% chance Boris loses outright now (and that's up from c.20% this morning)

    So those odds are value. I've certainly topped up.
    I put £70 on Boris losing at 4/1. These odds seem as mispriced to me as at the time of the Brexit and US Presidential votes in 2016.
    Unfortunately, in Italy at the moment so can’t bet but i’m tempted to put money on BJ being ousted.

    having said that, there’s a lot of first time Tory MPs in RW seats who will be thinking “if he goes, so do I”. That may save him.
    More likely they're thinking "If he goes, I've got a fighting chance next time."
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661

    geoffw said:

    Can't say I'm enjoying this. Especially as it feels like Dominic Cummings's revenge is being played out by press and mps.

    Screw DomCum. Its not about him.
    He set the ball in motion.

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    IanB2 said:

    With one hour to go until voting starts there are 49 members of the so-called payroll vote* who have not expressed public support for Boris Johnson.

    * Not of all them are paid.

    Of this group

    19 are Ministers
    4 are whips
    26 are PPSs (ministerial aides)

    My view is that Johnson needs around 70% of this payroll vote to survive the vote - which means he can't have more than 40 not vote for him.


    https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1533844316812193795

    Nothing from my MP, who has previously been loyal
    My MP is the toadying lickspittle David Duguid. He did a tour of Jubly events this double weekend and I know he has been talking to constituents as I watched him do so in Turiff yesterday.

    His tongue was so far up BJ's hole I assumed he would be quick out of the blocks with support. But nothing. He is tweeting! But not about the single biggest issue of the day/week/year.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16. ;)

    It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.

    It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,729

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    Or a post-Boris world priced in?
    Nope. Just an indication that Labour are hugely uninspiring and still tainted by the Corbyn years. If BJ goes the election is wide open.

    Labour COULD win but Starmer will have to raise game and they absolutely must do everything possible to define the new Tory leader negatively as soon as he/she is in place. Tories need to bullet-proof the candidates, so whoever wins doesn't implode a la Rishi.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Those figures simply reflect the weakness of Labour under Starmer. A leader who isn't leading. A man without a vision. A better leader would be enjoying double digit leads in every poll.

    But perhaps Durham Police will do everyone a favour and get rid of him.

    There are MPs on the Labour benches who will be able to put together a more compelling reason to vote Red than Starmer will ever be able to conceive.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Cyclefree said:

    Not only is he not sorry but according to this he'd do it all again.

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224?s=21&t=9fcTwTP1dl_jZlN12IairA

    That's a completely crazy stance for him to take in his current weak position, as mentioned a bit earlier.

    Unless he's even feeling kamikaze, and maintaining his ego and self-identity is paramount.
    Or he's got a humongous bet on himself losing ......
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    A ridiculous thread from Peston earlier, in which he says that Jeremy Hunt is one of this generation's "men in grey suits" rather than an obvious leadership rival.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1533763013030944768

    @Peston
    In the days or yore, Tory PM's did the decent thing and retired to their offices with the bottle of whisky and the revolver, after the so-called "men in grey suits" discreetly told them that the game was up. Now, no Tory MP thinks Boris Johnson would ever resign were today's generation of Tory grandee to give him a gentle nudge. Nothing in his history suggests he gives a fig what the great and the good think of him. Which is why this generation's men in grey suits - such as Jeremy Hunt, Jesse Norman, Andrew Mitchell, John Penrose - have taken to Twitter and the airwaves to condemn his fitness to remain as PM in the most clinical and damning terms. Or to put it another way, Boris Johnson's survival or oblivion is simply a brutal numbers game
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    One Tory source close to PM claims he hadn't told anyone about Brady's call during the pageant: “He didn’t have the time to communicate it to even his closest advisers until after it was done. He sat there smiling at the performances for a couple of hours, wondering what to do."
    https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1533849144376365058

    Ha!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Can't say I'm enjoying this. Especially as it feels like Dominic Cummings's revenge is being played out by press and mps.

    Screw DomCum. Its not about him.
    He set the ball in motion.

    Is he not the likely source of most of the partygate drip feed? Revenge served very cold indeed?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870

    Soon to be ex-Minister one suspects…

    That sound you heard was 100 UKGov lawyers face-palming in unison as their client admitted liability on Twitter. 🤦🏻‍♂️

    https://twitter.com/RoddyQC/status/1533818987645222914

    No problem, they can just argue the minister/ex minister doesn't have a clue what she is on about. Defence laid.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16. ;)

    It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.

    It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
    This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,729

    IanB2 said:

    With one hour to go until voting starts there are 49 members of the so-called payroll vote* who have not expressed public support for Boris Johnson.

    * Not of all them are paid.

    Of this group

    19 are Ministers
    4 are whips
    26 are PPSs (ministerial aides)

    My view is that Johnson needs around 70% of this payroll vote to survive the vote - which means he can't have more than 40 not vote for him.


    https://twitter.com/samfr/status/1533844316812193795

    Nothing from my MP, who has previously been loyal
    My MP is the toadying lickspittle David Duguid. He did a tour of Jubly events this double weekend and I know he has been talking to constituents as I watched him do so in Turiff yesterday.

    His tongue was so far up BJ's hole I assumed he would be quick out of the blocks with support. But nothing. He is tweeting! But not about the single biggest issue of the day/week/year.
    He was sacked as junior minister wasn't he? Not sure that will drive him into Boris camp. And the Scottish Tories desperately need to see the back of BJ. I see Andrew Bowie has come out against Boris.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795

    PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.

    It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.

    But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
    I know this. The scenario is:
    1. Big Dog gets shot
    2. Humiliated and alone he thinks "fuck this shit" and walks. There are bound to be rich friends / donors / ex KGB officers willing to look after him
    3. Raaaaaaab is deputy PM. Someone has to be PM - thats the system. So running or not he gets the gig.

    I think BJ loses tonight. I can see how he would flounce - his team clearly haven't even considered the need to lobby for votes so they definitely haven't scenario planned him losing. Which would put Raab up whether he wants it or not.

    Its a low order probability, but the more the drums increase in volume the more its a scenario we need to consider.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.

    The first thing PM Raab would have to do is find a new (safe) seat for himself... unless he wants to the first PM to be voted out by his constituents in goodness knows how long...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    edited June 2022
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16. ;)

    It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.

    It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
    Is it fair though just to back a leader on the basis that they won you a majority? What they do between now and the next election is fair game - even breaking the rules they made?

    It feels to me like this is a little different even to getting rid of a PM because you don’t like their policies or you’re worried about their unpopularity- certainly I still believe it would have been better for the Tories, in hindsight, to go down with Maggie on the ship in 1992 (assuming she would have lost against Kinnock, which still is a matter for debate) and Labour should really have stuck with Blair until the 2010 election when he could’ve let Brown or AN Other successor fight it (again in hindsight they may have had a better chance).

    But when it’s a scenario like this I think it’s perfectly justified.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,357
    Scott_xP said:

    One Tory MP describes the No10 campaign to shore up the PM's position as a group of "headless chickens" ... adds they are "amazed they didn’t have people calling [wavering MPs] within minutes of the announcement" the vote was coming
    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1533848634034372609

    They aren't exactly exuding confidence, are they? Getting excuses in early more like....
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,795
    GIN1138 said:

    PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.

    The first thing PM Raab would have to do is find a new (safe) seat for himself... unless he wants to the first PM to be voted out by his constituents in goodness knows how long...
    Meh - he won't be PM for more than a few months. And when he leaves parliament his pension and pay packet potential is a lot higher.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    Today will be the first day since March 2020 that I have watched broadcast news.

    Have been away from here for too long.

    Whether tonight sees the end of Boris, I doubt. But it is the beginning of the end.

    Last month, for the first time since 1999, I voted for a party other than the Conservatives.

    I won't return to voting blue whilst Boris remains leader.

    The end can't come soon enough

    Hear hear.

    I also refused to vote Tory last month.

    I will review the situation with a new leader but I remain unconvinced any of the candidates have what it takes to turn things around. But I will give them a fair hearing at least.
    I voted Green. Which was, to be fair, on a very local issue. But the Tory candidate didn't canvas or reply to email. Green was round within an hour.

    Politics is a lot about effort.

    Laziness loses elections.
  • DayTripperDayTripper Posts: 137

    PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.

    "Appears to be"? C'mon. He *is* a flapping great lummox. It's the only thing that makes me worried Johnson might be out on his ear. Well, I suppose we could have PM Dorries, but surely Tory MPS aren't *that* stupid?

    Oh.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    kle4 said:

    Soon to be ex-Minister one suspects…

    That sound you heard was 100 UKGov lawyers face-palming in unison as their client admitted liability on Twitter. 🤦🏻‍♂️

    https://twitter.com/RoddyQC/status/1533818987645222914

    No problem, they can just argue the minister/ex minister doesn't have a clue what she is on about. Defence laid.
    “M’Lud, the comment in question was said by Nadine Dorries”.

    “Case dismissed”.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.

    It is only Raab if he is not running for leadership. Otherwise Palace will expect someone else who has no skin in game to be caretaker.

    But this only happens anyway if Johnson walks out in a hissy fit and bear in mind he would lose a couple of month's PM salary and several weekends shouting drunkenly at Chequers staff.
    I know this. The scenario is:
    1. Big Dog gets shot
    2. Humiliated and alone he thinks "fuck this shit" and walks. There are bound to be rich friends / donors / ex KGB officers willing to look after him
    3. Raaaaaaab is deputy PM. Someone has to be PM - thats the system. So running or not he gets the gig.

    I think BJ loses tonight. I can see how he would flounce - his team clearly haven't even considered the need to lobby for votes so they definitely haven't scenario planned him losing. Which would put Raab up whether he wants it or not.

    Its a low order probability, but the more the drums increase in volume the more its a scenario we need to consider.
    Raab is available at 24 for next PM on Betfair.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    MISTY said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16. ;)

    It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.

    It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
    This is the party that got rid of the blessed Margaret (PBUH).
    In 1990 Con was often between 10% and 20% behind and sometimes more than 20% behind... Mrs T would have laughed at a 4% mid term opinion poll deficit.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,287
    GIN1138 said:

    PM Raab will need to consider cabinet changes to steady the ship. The country can't wait for months whilst his party go about savaging each other. So hopefully he will fire nutjobs like Dorries, not cling onto them like the flapping great lummox he appears to be.

    The first thing PM Raab would have to do is find a new (safe) seat for himself... unless he wants to the first PM to be voted out by his constituents in goodness knows how long...
    One of the reasons why the MPs won’t make him one of the two for the membership. He’s almost certain to lose Esher and Walton but there’s little prospect of his doing the chicken run. And to be fair, I don’t think he would try that in any event.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    1m
    Westminster Voting Intention (5 June):

    Labour 38% (-1)
    Conservative 34% (+1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
    Green 7% (+1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (–)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Other 3% (+2)

    Changes +/- 1 June

    Despite everything Labour only 4 points ahead.

    Maybe BJ is more popular in the Country than he is on here
    PB never forgave Boris for Brexit. A lot of hearts were broken on here on 23/06/16. ;)

    It looks like Con is about to get rid on the leader that's given them their biggest majority for 30 years when they are only 4% behind the main party of Opposition.

    It feels like the Tories have taken leave of their senses, which does seem to happen often after an extended period in government... Which is why a long period in government will usually be followed by a long period on Opposition...
    Would you feel the same way if the CP lost both incoming by-elections?
This discussion has been closed.