But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
Owen Paterson scandal should have been enough.
The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse wouldn't persuade this lot to act.
They're more spineless and dishonest than the board of Yorkshire County Cricket Club.
SNP 454 (+23) Lab 281 (+19) Con 215 (-61) Ind 152 (-16) LD 87 (+20) Green 34 (+15) Others 3 (-1)
This is significant. Labour revival in Scotland is continuing and Nicola Sturgeon has issued a typically pissy comment, saying Labour's gain is all about the tory vote collapse.
If Labour push on towards 15-20 MPs in Scotland it sure helps their cause.
I suppose the best result for Labour would be a Boris survival. Keir Starmer going wouldn't be terrible for Labour, as long as Angela Rayner doesn't get a fine too.
Looking at where the likely transfers will go in the NI results it looks like game over for the DUP .
Sinn Fein to have the largest share of the vote and most assembly members . And in Michelle O’Neil they have a very charismatic and charming First Minister .
It's the second party that really interests me ...
Mediocre for labour, A mixed bag for the Tories but pretty bad in their heartlands, a good result for the Lib Dems. The greens gained a handful.
Overall the winners last night are the Lib Dems.
Fair summary. It does look as though the Lib-Dems have been forgiven for the coalition and are now back in the game.
Of course the Lib-Dem success will melt away like June snow in the general election...
Yes, but for the Tories that is a problem. Those green and yellow votes are not turning blue in a tactical squeeze.
Yeah... but then Con will get some voters back from the Lib-Dems and a lot of the Con voters that stayed at home for this election will turn out for the General so it's swings and roundabouts...
Holden highlighted an invitation for a “quiz and social in-person event” on Facebook from the City of Durham Labour Party, on the same evening that Starmer was drinking beer. Foy encouraged attendees to have a “greasy night”, which is slang for drinking
Eh? Is that it?
Remember, Johnson got a FPN for sitting at the cabinet desk while some colleagues working in other rooms came for a few minutes without even eating or drinking. The bar is extremely low!
The police would not have reopened the investigation without further evidence and to be fair it is unwise to make judgement on it before the police do
@susannareid100 Jeremy Corbyn describes the police investigation into allegations Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer broke covid rules “very serious” and “a huge development”.
Translation: "... a huge opportunity to put me back in charge..."
I know The Cult want it, but I'm not convinced he'd be that keen himself. Had a face like a slapped arse whenever someone dared to ask him a question about anything (though particularly about things he'd said on the back benches).
@susannareid100 Jeremy Corbyn describes the police investigation into allegations Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer broke covid rules “very serious” and “a huge development”.
meanwhile, back at the ranch, in this case the Lazy B . . . more blowback re: Boeing decision to move HQ to VA.
from today's Seattle Times ($) commentary by aerospace reporter Dominic Gates:
. . . . Aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia, of Aerodynamic Advisory, said the FAA would have been more impressed by a return to Seattle, signaling a focus on fixing the huge challenges Boeing faces in its major business of making commercial airplanes.
“Boeing’s problem is not with government relations,” he said. “I don’t see doubling down the emphasis on D.C. lobbying as a breakthrough moment. It looks like a recipe for more of the same.”
“Boeing’s pressing need is to restore technical excellence in its most important and neglected business unit, commercial airplanes,” Aboulafia added. “A move back to Seattle would have sent an incredibly powerful message. This is a missed opportunity.”
U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore., chair of the House Committee on Transportation, agreed, calling the headquarters move to Arlington “another step in the wrong direction.”
“Boeing’s problem isn’t a lack of access to government, but rather its ongoing production problems and the failures of management and the board that led to the fatal crashes of the 737 MAX,” DeFazio said in a statement. “Boeing should focus on making safe airplanes — not lobbying federal regulators and Congress.” . . . .
Easing the decision, which was first reported Thursday morning by The Wall Street Journal, the tax incentives the city of Chicago provided Boeing for going there expired in 2021. . . .
The pandemic’s massive impact on the company’s business has forced Boeing to sell off real estate . . . .
Boeing said that in addition to setting up its global headquarters in Arlington, it also “plans to develop a research & technology hub in the area to harness and attract engineering and technical capabilities.” . . . .
In addition to the Puget Sound region, Boeing now has engineering hubs in North Charleston, South Carolina; St. Louis; Seal Beach, California; as well as India. Its engineering centers in Moscow and Kyiv are currently closed due to the war in Ukraine. . . . .
Boeing’s move to Chicago in 2001 from its historical Seattle location ripped apart the company’s legacy in the Pacific Northwest.
The decision to leave Chicago makes clear that move 21 years ago has proved a major flop.
There was never any real rationale offered for choosing Chicago that made sense for the company’s business. Boeing’s then-CEO, Phil Condit, and its president, Harry Stonecipher, said at the time they wanted the headquarters relocated to a city set apart from Boeing’s main business units. . . . .
The new headquarters quickly was seen as an ivory tower, separated from the realities and complexities of the work that produced the airplanes and the technology that determined the company’s fate. . . . .
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
Owen Paterson scandal should have been enough.
The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse wouldn't persuade this lot to act.
They're more spineless and dishonest than the board of Yorkshire County Cricket Club.
Holden highlighted an invitation for a “quiz and social in-person event” on Facebook from the City of Durham Labour Party, on the same evening that Starmer was drinking beer. Foy encouraged attendees to have a “greasy night”, which is slang for drinking
Eh? Is that it?
Remember, Johnson got a FPN for sitting at the cabinet desk while some colleagues working in other rooms came for a few minutes without even eating or drinking. The bar is extremely low!
The police would not have reopened the investigation without further evidence and to be fair it is unwise to make judgement on it before the police do
Utter bollox - I suspect they've re-opened because they've got fed up with the management time they are wasting dealing with questions about it.
Holden highlighted an invitation for a “quiz and social in-person event” on Facebook from the City of Durham Labour Party, on the same evening that Starmer was drinking beer. Foy encouraged attendees to have a “greasy night”, which is slang for drinking
Eh? Is that it?
Remember, Johnson got a FPN for sitting at the cabinet desk while some colleagues working in other rooms came for a few minutes without even eating or drinking. The bar is extremely low!
The police would not have reopened the investigation without further evidence and to be fair it is unwise to make judgement on it before the police do
Quite a confession from you there. Off to prison you go!
Looking at where the likely transfers will go in the NI results it looks like game over for the DUP .
Sinn Fein to have the largest share of the vote and most assembly members . And in Michelle O’Neil they have a very charismatic and charming First Minister .
It's the second party that really interests me ...
I think it will be the DUP in second place , I can’t see the Alliance picking up enough transfers .
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
1992 had a moderately strong Lib Lab understanding of who would fight the Tories where, which the voters tacitly understood. Hence Major's 42% giving a thin majority.
2015 was peak Lib on Lab war action. Whatever the opposite of tactical voting is. Hence Cameron winning on a much lower percentage.
What do you really think 2024 will be like?
Starmer is not a winner, sure. But unless the Conservatives properly relaunch, he may not need to be.
If I was to put specific number ranges I'd guess at:
Con - 335-340 Lab - 225-230 LD - 20-25 SNP - 40-45
That's with Boris as leader. If the Tories change leadership then I think the Tories could do a lot better, simply because there's a lot of people who voted Tory in 2019 and 2017 but aren't in that Tory column right now but also haven't been won over by Labour. That column of voters has the potential to deliver another Tory landslide that the blue tick wankers on Twitter won't see coming just like 2015.
Holden highlighted an invitation for a “quiz and social in-person event” on Facebook from the City of Durham Labour Party, on the same evening that Starmer was drinking beer. Foy encouraged attendees to have a “greasy night”, which is slang for drinking
Eh? Is that it?
Remember, Johnson got a FPN for sitting at the cabinet desk while some colleagues working in other rooms came for a few minutes without even eating or drinking. The bar is extremely low!
Yes, but the events were 12 months apart and different rules applied, also not an isolated event for the PM.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.
I'm not holding my breath!
As another former Tory (council candidate & voter) I can't imagine what they can do to demonstrate that they can be trusted. They have a decade or so of just being "wrong" (IMHO) economically, socially, morally etc. Johnson is a symptom not a cause.
And how long should Labour have to wait, to be trusted, after they actually elected a traitorous, IRA-supporting, Hamas-hugging, anti-Semitic, Putin-forgiving communist as LEADER? 30 years? More? Corbyn only resigned at the end of 2019. Two and a half years ago
People forgive and forget pretty quick. Once Boris goes, if he goes, the cavalcade of disapproval will move on
Only Tony Blair seems to receive perpetual condemnation, for all eternity. A peculiar thing
On the other hand people only just seem up to forgiving the LDs for the coalition and that was 7 years ago.
I think the difference is that the boring decent people stuck around when the entry-ists came and tried to purge them from the Labour Party. The Tories seem to have driven everyone decent out.
And while I am not excited about a Labour Government *in any way* a thorough Tory bloodletting and rebuild is the only way back I see for them.
I have no torch for Labour, so they only need to be "reasonably sensible for a short period of government" rather than actually earning my trust.
I guess the major source of discrepancy in interpretation of the results is whether they are traditional "mid-term" ones. If they are, then those who are shrugging them off for the Tories definitely have a point. But for me, so much has changed since 2015 that talking about what is happening now in terms of what happened before is a mistake: the Scottish independence referendum, Brexit, Corbyn, covid and a cost of living squeeze that's only just begun have altered the landscape to a huge extent. Politics will be seen very much in terms of pre- and post-2015 in years to come, I reckon. Obviously, I could be totally wrong. It has been known ;-)
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
The other thing to note, going into the last General Election it was Tories +UKIP making something like nearly 60% before Tories (Cummings) done that truly brilliant thing of corralling the UKIP to the Tories, like a cowboy stealing someone else’s heard.
Since that moment that huge % has basically halved. Quite a fight on their hands to fight back in the next two years?
It’s one way of looking at it?
The combined Tory + UKIP/BXP share was never near 60%!
Looking at where the likely transfers will go in the NI results it looks like game over for the DUP .
Sinn Fein to have the largest share of the vote and most assembly members . And in Michelle O’Neil they have a very charismatic and charming First Minister .
I'm so glad Phillip Thompson isn't around to see what has befallen the DUP. All this after Boris blessed them with the most masterly deal in the history of negotiations. A political utopia awaited them. What went wrong?
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
Owen Paterson scandal should have been enough.
The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse wouldn't persuade this lot to act.
They're more spineless and dishonest than the board of Yorkshire County Cricket Club.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.
I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.
I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
Factually wrong, as is often the case with you. Polls at the time, and afterwards, had sovereignty as the major driver for a Leave vote.
Lord Ashcroft did the biggest poll of all. 12,000 people
“Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”
"Sovereignty" is a pc way of saying "Immigration" though. It's a nice, noble sounding thing c.f. border control which sounds rather harsh and specific. Therefore the 1st concern is often a cypher for the 2nd. Plus many of the Leave respondents wouldn't understand the questions. So I'd be a bit skeptical of that poll.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.
I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.
I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
Factually wrong, as is often the case with you. Polls at the time, and afterwards, had sovereignty as the major driver for a Leave vote.
Lord Ashcroft did the biggest poll of all. 12,000 people
“Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”
"Sovereignty" is a pc way of saying "Immigration" though. It's a nice, noble sounding thing c.f. border control which sounds rather harsh and specific. Therefore the 1st concern is often a cypher for the 2nd. Plus many of the Leave respondents wouldn't understand the questions. So I'd be a bit skeptical of that poll.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.
I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.
I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
Factually wrong, as is often the case with you. Polls at the time, and afterwards, had sovereignty as the major driver for a Leave vote.
Lord Ashcroft did the biggest poll of all. 12,000 people
“Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”
"Sovereignty" is a pc way of saying "Immigration" though. It's a nice, noble sounding thing c.f. border control which sounds rather harsh and specific. Therefore the 1st concern is often a cypher for the 2nd. Plus many of the Leave respondents wouldn't understand the questions. So I'd be a bit skeptical of that poll.
What will they do when Johnson capitulates to India and loads more visas get issued . Of course you won’t hear a peep from the right wing hate papers as they’re too embarrassed to admit they sold a pack of lies to their readers !
I guess the major source of discrepancy in interpretation of the results is whether they are traditional "mid-term" ones. If they are, then those who are shrugging them off for the Tories definitely have a point. But for me, so much has changed since 2015 that talking about what is happening now in terms of what happened before is a mistake: the Scottish independence referendum, Brexit, Corbyn, covid and a cost of living squeeze that's only just begun have altered the landscape to a huge extent. Politics will be seen very much in terms of pre- and post-2015 in years to come, I reckon. Obviously, I could be totally wrong. It has been known ;-)
I rate you as a pundit after calling the Brexit referendum here accurately in advance.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.
I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.
I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
Factually wrong, as is often the case with you. Polls at the time, and afterwards, had sovereignty as the major driver for a Leave vote.
Lord Ashcroft did the biggest poll of all. 12,000 people
“Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”
"Sovereignty" is a pc way of saying "Immigration" though. It's a nice, noble sounding thing c.f. border control which sounds rather harsh and specific. Therefore the 1st concern is often a cypher for the 2nd. Plus many of the Leave respondents wouldn't understand the questions. So I'd be a bit skeptical of that poll.
What will they do when Johnson capitulates to India and loads more visas get issued . Of course you won’t hear a peep from the right wing hate papers as they’re too embarrassed to admit they sold a pack of lies to their readers !
I don't think a FTA with India is imminent and it is unlikely to include anything close to free movement
Looking at where the likely transfers will go in the NI results it looks like game over for the DUP .
Sinn Fein to have the largest share of the vote and most assembly members . And in Michelle O’Neil they have a very charismatic and charming First Minister .
I'm so glad Phillip Thompson isn't around to see what has befallen the DUP. All this after Boris blessed them with the most masterly deal in the history of negotiations. A political utopia awaited them. What went wrong?
Sinn Fein ran 34 candidates and the DUP 30 . Both played it safe mindful of splitting the votes too much given the system of transfers . Last time they ended up with 27 and 28 assembly members respectively . Both are likely to do worse than 2017 in terms of the assembly but the DUP will undershoot by more .
Rather different from the PA results CHB posted a few mos ago. But the basic story is much the same.
I think the difference is due to comparison with 2017 or comparison with dissolution. I think some SNP Cllrs defected to ALBA and therefore the comparison with dissolution looks better than with 2017.
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
Good
That’s a bit uncalled for - celebrating a fellow poster not winning an election
Mediocre for labour, A mixed bag for the Tories but pretty bad in their heartlands, a good result for the Lib Dems. The greens gained a handful.
Overall the winners last night are the Lib Dems.
Fair summary. It does look as though the Lib-Dems have been forgiven for the coalition and are now back in the game.
Of course the Lib-Dem success will melt away like June snow in the general election...
I think the LDs are on course to get roughly the same number of MPs they got in 1992 - roughly 20.
The difference is that they probably won't get any west country seats, except possibly St Ives. And their gains will be in the more leafy, prosperous and Remainiac parts of the South East.
I guess the major source of discrepancy in interpretation of the results is whether they are traditional "mid-term" ones. If they are, then those who are shrugging them off for the Tories definitely have a point. But for me, so much has changed since 2015 that talking about what is happening now in terms of what happened before is a mistake: the Scottish independence referendum, Brexit, Corbyn, covid and a cost of living squeeze that's only just begun have altered the landscape to a huge extent. Politics will be seen very much in terms of pre- and post-2015 in years to come, I reckon. Obviously, I could be totally wrong. It has been known ;-)
Yeah, I think it's very questionable to assume that it's inevitable that there'll be a swing back to the government come to the next GE. For one, the 2017 GE showed that that the opposition can do better than their 'mid-term' polling suggests. It's also very questionable to assume that all VI Tory 2019 voters who didn't vote yesterday will vote for the Tories yesterday. And then there's the fact that I imagine come a election many of voters who voted Green last night will vote Labour in the marginals Lab need to win. Not a fantastic night for Labour, but really can't see the argument from some PB Tories that it shows Labour is going to lose - particularly, as they rely on 'political rules' which are now redundant post-Brexit.
Comments
If Labour push on towards 15-20 MPs in Scotland it sure helps their cause.
They make it 414. But aren't always the quickest.
from today's Seattle Times ($) commentary by aerospace reporter Dominic Gates:
. . . . Aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia, of Aerodynamic Advisory, said the FAA would have been more impressed by a return to Seattle, signaling a focus on fixing the huge challenges Boeing faces in its major business of making commercial airplanes.
“Boeing’s problem is not with government relations,” he said. “I don’t see doubling down the emphasis on D.C. lobbying as a breakthrough moment. It looks like a recipe for more of the same.”
“Boeing’s pressing need is to restore technical excellence in its most important and neglected business unit, commercial airplanes,” Aboulafia added. “A move back to Seattle would have sent an incredibly powerful message. This is a missed opportunity.”
U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore., chair of the House Committee on Transportation, agreed, calling the headquarters move to Arlington “another step in the wrong direction.”
“Boeing’s problem isn’t a lack of access to government, but rather its ongoing production problems and the failures of management and the board that led to the fatal crashes of the 737 MAX,” DeFazio said in a statement. “Boeing should focus on making safe airplanes — not lobbying federal regulators and Congress.” . . . .
Easing the decision, which was first reported Thursday morning by The Wall Street Journal, the tax incentives the city of Chicago provided Boeing for going there expired in 2021. . . .
The pandemic’s massive impact on the company’s business has forced Boeing to sell off real estate . . . .
Boeing said that in addition to setting up its global headquarters in Arlington, it also “plans to develop a research & technology hub in the area to harness and attract engineering and technical capabilities.” . . . .
In addition to the Puget Sound region, Boeing now has engineering hubs in North Charleston, South Carolina; St. Louis; Seal Beach, California; as well as India. Its engineering centers in Moscow and Kyiv are currently closed due to the war in Ukraine. . . . .
Boeing’s move to Chicago in 2001 from its historical Seattle location ripped apart the company’s legacy in the Pacific Northwest.
The decision to leave Chicago makes clear that move 21 years ago has proved a major flop.
There was never any real rationale offered for choosing Chicago that made sense for the company’s business. Boeing’s then-CEO, Phil Condit, and its president, Harry Stonecipher, said at the time they wanted the headquarters relocated to a city set apart from Boeing’s main business units. . . . .
The new headquarters quickly was seen as an ivory tower, separated from the realities and complexities of the work that produced the airplanes and the technology that determined the company’s fate. . . . .
Con - 335-340
Lab - 225-230
LD - 20-25
SNP - 40-45
That's with Boris as leader. If the Tories change leadership then I think the Tories could do a lot better, simply because there's a lot of people who voted Tory in 2019 and 2017 but aren't in that Tory column right now but also haven't been won over by Labour. That column of voters has the potential to deliver another Tory landslide that the blue tick wankers on Twitter won't see coming just like 2015.
And while I am not excited about a Labour Government *in any way* a thorough Tory bloodletting and rebuild is the only way back I see for them.
I have no torch for Labour, so they only need to be "reasonably sensible for a short period of government" rather than actually earning my trust.
https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/what-mattered-most-to-you-when-deciding-how-to-vote-in-the-eu-referendum/#.YnVd0mnTXqt
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1521957860887912448
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqCDCrA4JPs
Round 2
Oliver Coppard 143,476
Clive Watkinson 57,347
Sadly there wasn't an "abolish this pointless post" option. One way ratchet.
The difference is that they probably won't get any west country seats, except possibly St Ives. And their gains will be in the more leafy, prosperous and Remainiac parts of the South East.
It's also very questionable to assume that all VI Tory 2019 voters who didn't vote yesterday will vote for the Tories yesterday. And then there's the fact that I imagine come a election many of voters who voted Green last night will vote Labour in the marginals Lab need to win.
Not a fantastic night for Labour, but really can't see the argument from some PB Tories that it shows Labour is going to lose - particularly, as they rely on 'political rules' which are now redundant post-Brexit.