Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Then there is Hull that has just gone Lib Dem. Big psephological changes happening in England. My simplified read:
Cities with universities: Labour
Leafy commuter places in the South: Lib Dems
Towns: Conservative
The challenge for all parties is to challenge or maximise the stereotypes depending on where they are campaigning.
The interesting new thing this time is rural not overly wealthy counties. Cumbria and Somerset were the only two up. They were both dire for the Tories.
I deliberately left off rural places because not sure how to slot them into the new order. Conservative or Lib Dem, clearly not Labour. Cumbria is an interesting case. Parts of it are quite post-ish industrial and deprived
Indeed. But drilling down it was a shock to see how badly they did in some very rural bits.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Is there something special about those quarters?
Britain left the EU on the 1st February 2020. Looks like exports since that date have fallen. Maybe nothing to do with Brexit, but surely in terms of "facts" UK's sales to the EU have in fact fallen since Brexit.
The quarter before the referendum, and the same quarter after the end of the transition period.
Well, yes. But why pick a quarter 4 years before Brexit actually happened?
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
It is quite bad for the Tories, but the gains have split fairly evenly between the other parties.
I believe the -150 etc. was England only, no?
Yes - though it's already -282 in England only.
Both of you are correct. Its the blue wall meltdown wot is doing it. It’s given Thrashers forecast a thorough thrashing. I’m waiting for him to admit his surprise. This is quite some story from the afternoon session.
For how long have they lost Remania? A Generation? Forever?
Half way between disappointment and disaster, with most English councils declared.
We seem to have had a British version of the famous US blue-shift where in the late evening it all looks very Republican, and the media narratives get set. Then as the following day progresses we actually end up with a very strong Democrat result but the media has moved on by then.
When I woke up the consensus was that the Tories were bloodied but still standing, and Labour had disappointed. Now it looks much more like a disaster for the Tories, although largely thanks to a yellow shift rather than a red one.
I feel that if you're not on a specific campaign, the late-hours early-hours coverage is less worthwhile than it used to be. The exit polls are just more definitive and if it is a really close election then Friday morning determines the result anyway.
Tower hamlets first preferences in, surprise winner....not!
It'll be interesting to see if the Tories can avoid getting wiped off Tower Hamlets council. They hold just 2, one in Canary Wharf and one in Island Gardens.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Is there something special about those quarters?
Britain left the EU on the 1st February 2020. Looks like exports since that date have fallen. Maybe nothing to do with Brexit, but surely in terms of "facts" UK's sales to the EU have in fact fallen since Brexit.
The quarter before the referendum, and the same quarter after the end of the transition period.
Well, yes. But why pick a quarter 4 years before Brexit actually happened?
Before the vote, so removes any effect that it may have induced, regardless of whether there had been changes to trade/customs rules and regulations.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.
I'm not holding my breath!
I voted for Brexit but I want all of those things too. I thought that a Rishi led government might give us quite a number of them but he is now more torpedoed than a Russian frigate. And his budget was poor, to be fair. Hunt? Maybe, but I don't see how he wins.
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
But then, Mr O, you and the rest of you did have an opportunity to dump your Great Leader. You realised that he was a loser, IIRC. And yet you and the rest of them took the cowards' way out - just kicked your problem into the long grass. And now you have had to pay the price.
Sorry on a personal level, thoigh.
I think you might be overestimating JohnO's influence. The matter is currently in the hands of MPs alone.
Not so sure. I always had the impression that Mr O was highly influential in the ranks of the Conservative Party - at least to the extent of putting pressure on his own MP to do something about the problem.
In contrast, our own Mr Bell stood up for his own constituents against the scandalous behaviour of Johnson and his servile cronies, and the electors have just rewarded him for doing so.
It is very useful to be able to identify a sinking ship in good time.
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
It is. The picture's looking better to me as it gets closer to being completed. Shades of WH2020 and that lagged Dem wave from the postal vote which slowly but surely overwhelmed Donald Trump.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.
I'm not holding my breath!
As another former Tory (council candidate & voter) I can't imagine what they can do to demonstrate that they can be trusted. They have a decade or so of just being "wrong" (IMHO) economically, socially, morally etc. Johnson is a symptom not a cause.
Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....
But then, Mr O, you and the rest of you did have an opportunity to dump your Great Leader. You realised that he was a loser, IIRC. And yet you and the rest of them took the cowards' way out - just kicked your problem into the long grass. And now you have had to pay the price.
Sorry on a personal level, thoigh.
I think you might be overestimating JohnO's influence. The matter is currently in the hands of MPs alone.
Not so sure. I always had the impression that Mr O was highly influential in the ranks of the Conservative Party - at least to the extent of putting pressure on his own MP to do something about the problem.
In contrast, our own Mr Bell stood up for his own constituents against the scandalous behaviour of Johnson and his servile cronies, and the electors have just rewarded him for doing so.
It is very useful to be able to identify a sinking ship in good time.
Who knows what JohnO has done in private. You are just asserting that he hasn't done anything.
The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?
It is quite bad for the Tories, but the gains have split fairly evenly between the other parties.
I believe the -150 etc. was England only, no?
Yes - though it's already -282 in England only.
Both of you are correct. Its the blue wall meltdown wot is doing it. It’s given Thrashers forecast a thorough thrashing. I’m waiting for him to admit his surprise. This is quite some story from the afternoon session.
For how long have they lost Remania? A Generation? Forever?
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Is there something special about those quarters?
Britain left the EU on the 1st February 2020. Looks like exports since that date have fallen. Maybe nothing to do with Brexit, but surely in terms of "facts" UK's sales to the EU have in fact fallen since Brexit.
They were ones I lifted off a website which I freely accept is not exactly neutral on the matter so they may well be excessively favourable. That is not my point. My point is that people will choose the statistics that confirm their original view and discount those that don't. It is an emotional thing and it is deeply held. And it is certainly one of the reasons the Tories are being hammered in certain parts of Surrey.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
OK, but a bit of a funny way of making a point - people want to believe UK exports to the EU are down since Brexit, but in reality they are down? Seems to work better the other way round - this website is cherrypicking data to try and claim exports to the EU are up since Brexit, when in fact they are down, but people will believe it if they want to.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Is there something special about those quarters?
Britain left the EU on the 1st February 2020. Looks like exports since that date have fallen. Maybe nothing to do with Brexit, but surely in terms of "facts" UK's sales to the EU have in fact fallen since Brexit.
The quarter before the referendum, and the same quarter after the end of the transition period.
Well, yes. But why pick a quarter 4 years before Brexit actually happened?
Before the vote, so removes any effect that it may have induced, regardless of whether there had been changes to trade/customs rules and regulations.
Labour crap Tories crapper Lib Dems used to be crap
Labour crap Tories crapper Lib Dems even crapper still, but, by crikey, they used to be so much worse. Greens now capable of booking out a whole mid-sized local restaurant for their councillors' annual get together.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Is there something special about those quarters?
Britain left the EU on the 1st February 2020. Looks like exports since that date have fallen. Maybe nothing to do with Brexit, but surely in terms of "facts" UK's sales to the EU have in fact fallen since Brexit.
The quarter before the referendum, and the same quarter after the end of the transition period.
Well, yes. But why pick a quarter 4 years before Brexit actually happened?
Before the vote, so removes any effect that it may have induced, regardless of whether there had been changes to trade/customs rules and regulations.
LOL
Sorry, what's so funny? I'm only offering a reason as to why that quarter may have been selected.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Is there something special about those quarters?
Britain left the EU on the 1st February 2020. Looks like exports since that date have fallen. Maybe nothing to do with Brexit, but surely in terms of "facts" UK's sales to the EU have in fact fallen since Brexit.
The quarter before the referendum, and the same quarter after the end of the transition period.
Well, yes. But why pick a quarter 4 years before Brexit actually happened?
Before the vote, so removes any effect that it may have induced, regardless of whether there had been changes to trade/customs rules and regulations.
LOL
Sorry, what's so funny? I'm only offering a reason as to why that quarter may have been selected.
Sorry, I thought you were offering a joke explanation.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Then there is Hull that has just gone Lib Dem. Big psephological changes happening in England. My simplified read:
Cities with universities: Labour
Leafy commuter places in the South: Lib Dems
Towns: Conservative
The challenge for all parties is to challenge or maximise the stereotypes depending on where they are campaigning.
The interesting new thing this time is rural not overly wealthy counties. Cumbria and Somerset were the only two up. They were both dire for the Tories.
I deliberately left off rural places because not sure how to slot them into the new order. Conservative or Lib Dem, clearly not Labour. Cumbria is an interesting case. Parts of it are quite post-ish industrial and deprived
Indeed. But drilling down it was a shock to see how badly they did in some very rural bits.
I am guessing the next GE will be won on the degree to which Conservatives can hold onto their seats in the leafy South (Blue Wall) and the degree to which Labour can challenge the Conservatives in towns (some of which are ex-Red Wall). Those contests are not natural ideological territory for the respective parties.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.
I'm not holding my breath!
I voted for Brexit but I want all of those things too. I thought that a Rishi led government might give us quite a number of them but he is now more torpedoed than a Russian frigate. And his budget was poor, to be fair. Hunt? Maybe, but I don't see how he wins.
Hunt would be great, but I don't see it happening.
We might have a long wait. Kemi Badenoch, eventually?
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Is there something special about those quarters?
Britain left the EU on the 1st February 2020. Looks like exports since that date have fallen. Maybe nothing to do with Brexit, but surely in terms of "facts" UK's sales to the EU have in fact fallen since Brexit.
The quarter before the referendum, and the same quarter after the end of the transition period.
Well, yes. But why pick a quarter 4 years before Brexit actually happened?
Before the vote, so removes any effect that it may have induced, regardless of whether there had been changes to trade/customs rules and regulations.
LOL
Sorry, what's so funny? I'm only offering a reason as to why that quarter may have been selected.
Sorry, I thought you were offering a joke explanation.
Seems to me a reasonable start for a comparison. After all, the vote itself may have been enough to alter business decisions/strategies.
Meanwhile in France. Mélenchon has "united the left" for the assembly elections, with the big caveat that the centre-left mostly votes for Macron now. Having not consulted their members, the minority in the socialist party in particular is enraged. The explicit commitment to conflict with the EU, and submission to Mélenchon's pro-Islam and anti-police rhetoric, will probably cause a lasting split.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.
I'm not holding my breath!
Very close to my own view. They don't just need to get rid of Johnson, they need to stop playing to the lowest common denominator. At the moment it feels like the party I was once an enthusiastic activist for has been the victim of a hostile takeover bid by The Daily Express
Wakefield Rural Name Party Votes % BRYAN, Jordan Phillip Labour Party 1838 36.8 DAVIES, Lien Kerry Freedom Alliance. The Real Alternative 69 1.4 HARVEY, Samantha (Elected) The Conservative Party Candidate 2347 47.0 HERDSON, David John Rowntree Yorkshire Party 428 8.6 SADLER, Karen Green Party 314 6.3 Majority 509 10.2 Spoiled Votes 8 % turnout 36.4 Total Votes 4,996
Elmbridge Borough District Council Hersham Village - results Election Candidate Party Votes % Outcome CHANDLER Chester Robert Liberal Democrat 1122 45.1% Elected O'REILLY John Conservative 1102 44.3% Not elected HAINES Kelly Suzanne Labour 262 10.5% Not elected
Personally have mixed emotions!
Clear our JohnO fought the good fight, in true Irish style. And that what bested him was not HIS sins & errors.
We don't know that was the reason the vote swung yellow, just that was his constituents decided.
That seems pretty clear, that "X" for just one ballot choice is that candidate, as per – Rule 44(2)(b) whatever THAT says exactly.\
EDIT - In Scotland anyway.
Rule 44
(2)A ballot paper on which the vote is marked—
(a)elsewhere than in the proper place; (b)otherwise than by means of a figure indicating a first or subsequent preference; or (c)by more than one mark, shall not for such reason be deemed to be void by reason only of indicating a preference by the use of words (or any other mark) instead of figures, if in the opinion of the returning officer the word or mark clearly indicates a preference or preferences, and the way the paper is marked does not itself identify the voter and it is not shown that such voter can be identified by it.
Wakefield Rural Name Party Votes % BRYAN, Jordan Phillip Labour Party 1838 36.8 DAVIES, Lien Kerry Freedom Alliance. The Real Alternative 69 1.4 HARVEY, Samantha (Elected) The Conservative Party Candidate 2347 47.0 HERDSON, David John Rowntree Yorkshire Party 428 8.6 SADLER, Karen Green Party 314 6.3 Majority 509 10.2 Spoiled Votes 8 % turnout 36.4 Total Votes 4,996
Perhaps he should have filed as: Dave "PBee" Herdson? Could have made all the difference!
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Is there something special about those quarters?
Britain left the EU on the 1st February 2020. Looks like exports since that date have fallen. Maybe nothing to do with Brexit, but surely in terms of "facts" UK's sales to the EU have in fact fallen since Brexit.
They were ones I lifted off a website which I freely accept is not exactly neutral on the matter so they may well be excessively favourable. That is not my point. My point is that people will choose the statistics that confirm their original view and discount those that don't. It is an emotional thing and it is deeply held. And it is certainly one of the reasons the Tories are being hammered in certain parts of Surrey.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
OK, but a bit of a funny way of making a point - people want to believe UK exports to the EU are down since Brexit, but in reality they are down? Seems to work better the other way round - this website is cherrypicking data to try and claim exports to the EU are up since Brexit, when in fact they are down, but people will believe it if they want to.
It was a lazy example. The main reason that exports are down, of course, is Covid and the sharp fall in demand in the EU. Which, sadly, is all too likely to get worse on the back of sanctions and high fuel prices.
That seems pretty clear, that "X" for just one ballot choice is that candidate, as per – Rule 44(2)(b) whatever THAT says exactly.\
EDIT - In Scotland anyway.
Rule 44
(2)A ballot paper on which the vote is marked—
(a)elsewhere than in the proper place; (b)otherwise than by means of a figure indicating a first or subsequent preference; or (c)by more than one mark, shall not for such reason be deemed to be void by reason only of indicating a preference by the use of words (or any other mark) instead of figures, if in the opinion of the returning officer the word or mark clearly indicates a preference or preferences, and the way the paper is marked does not itself identify the voter and it is not shown that such voter can be identified by it.
Was the ballot paper that sparked this very interesting discussion cast in Scotland?
Wakefield Rural Name Party Votes % BRYAN, Jordan Phillip Labour Party 1838 36.8 DAVIES, Lien Kerry Freedom Alliance. The Real Alternative 69 1.4 HARVEY, Samantha (Elected) The Conservative Party Candidate 2347 47.0 HERDSON, David John Rowntree Yorkshire Party 428 8.6 SADLER, Karen Green Party 314 6.3 Majority 509 10.2 Spoiled Votes 8 % turnout 36.4 Total Votes 4,996
Perhaps he should have filed as: Dave "PBee" Herdson? Could have made all the difference!
I'm not so sure. I think the general public would view us as weird and unusual.
That seems pretty clear, that "X" for just one ballot choice is that candidate, as per – Rule 44(2)(b) whatever THAT says exactly.\
EDIT - In Scotland anyway.
Rule 44
(2)A ballot paper on which the vote is marked—
(a)elsewhere than in the proper place; (b)otherwise than by means of a figure indicating a first or subsequent preference; or (c)by more than one mark, shall not for such reason be deemed to be void by reason only of indicating a preference by the use of words (or any other mark) instead of figures, if in the opinion of the returning officer the word or mark clearly indicates a preference or preferences, and the way the paper is marked does not itself identify the voter and it is not shown that such voter can be identified by it.
Was the ballot paper that sparked this very interesting discussion cast in Scotland?
Yes, but wherever it was issued a single "x" is sufficient to cast a vote even even if it is one where you should give preferences.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Then there is Hull that has just gone Lib Dem. Big psephological changes happening in England. My simplified read:
Cities with universities: Labour
Leafy commuter places in the South: Lib Dems
Towns: Conservative
The challenge for all parties is to challenge or maximise the stereotypes depending on where they are campaigning.
The interesting new thing this time is rural not overly wealthy counties. Cumbria and Somerset were the only two up. They were both dire for the Tories.
I deliberately left off rural places because not sure how to slot them into the new order. Conservative or Lib Dem, clearly not Labour. Cumbria is an interesting case. Parts of it are quite post-ish industrial and deprived
Indeed. But drilling down it was a shock to see how badly they did in some very rural bits.
I am guessing the next GE will be won on the degree to which Conservatives can hold onto their seats in the leafy South (Blue Wall) and the degree to which Labour can challenge the Conservatives in towns (some of which are ex-Red Wall). Those contests are not natural ideological territory for the respective parties.
Suspect Labour have the cities sown up. While the Southern leafy suburbs might tend to Lib Dem that will indirectly help Labour.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.
I'm not holding my breath!
As another former Tory (council candidate & voter) I can't imagine what they can do to demonstrate that they can be trusted. They have a decade or so of just being "wrong" (IMHO) economically, socially, morally etc. Johnson is a symptom not a cause.
Interesting the number of us on here who were once enthusiastic Tories who will no longer vote for them. I was a member of our Constituency Executive. I yesterday reluctantly voted LD again.
We've gone about three hours without the PB Thinkcrime Police demanding his execution for something for which they praise Mr Johnson. Quite a pleasant change.
If you put a "1" in an FPTP ballot paper would it really be rejected? It's a clear indication of preference.
The instructions for FPTP are not "make a clear indication of preference". They are "make an X in the box"
RobD is correct, guidance and training is clear a single 1 in the box is fine, as is a tick, a circle, or in several cases a penis (despite the assertion it is not usually counted, I have seen the opposite - if it is the sole indication given on the ballot - none of the agents have ever had a problem with that, from any party). Anyone giving an anecdote otherwise has been acting improperly.
Agreed. A single 'X' on an STV ballot paper should be treated as '1'
But it's not, for the same reason if you draw a penis in the box it is not usually counted
X usually means wrong, after all.
What would happen if one filled in a FPTP ballot paper with numbers? It would be rejected. Conversely, the same should happen here.
If you put a "1" in an FPTP ballot paper would it really be rejected? It's a clear indication of preference.
But also the other candidates with 2 etc? Surely not.
Nope, that's deemed acceptable.
This is an area where amateur election nerds take a very very strict view of things (it says mark with an X, what if someone ticks instead, oh no!), but the Electoral Commission and case law is much more sensible
Edit: I was surprised by the ranking one being ok too, as I'd say what if someone is giving people scores out of 6, say, but rules is rules. Goes in the doubtful pile, and it will be assessed.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.
I'm not holding my breath!
I voted for Brexit but I want all of those things too. I thought that a Rishi led government might give us quite a number of them but he is now more torpedoed than a Russian frigate. And his budget was poor, to be fair. Hunt? Maybe, but I don't see how he wins.
Hunt would be great, but I don't see it happening.
We might have a long wait. Kemi Badenoch, eventually?
I just want someone at least vaguely honest and vaguely competent. I don't particularly care these days even which party they come from... although I am sure that will change once their policies start hitting me personally
But for now a smidgen of competence and a smidgen of honesty would make a refreshing change.
JohnO, some good news! Have just contacted Marjorie Taylor Greene's congressional office, and Tucker Carlson's booking agent, alerting them to your situation.
They are flying out immediately to assist you in overturning this obviously rigged result!
Tower hamlets first preferences in, surprise winner....not!
Tower Shamlets?
It's a f*cking disgrace. I know we shouldn't blame the voters, but the man is a crook. Which would be fine in and of itself, but he's specifically an electoral crook who is unrepentent and claiming he never did anything wrong (rather than someone who served their time, turned their life around and repents - I know some serving people who have been convicted of other offences).
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.
I'm not holding my breath!
I voted for Brexit but I want all of those things too. I thought that a Rishi led government might give us quite a number of them but he is now more torpedoed than a Russian frigate. And his budget was poor, to be fair. Hunt? Maybe, but I don't see how he wins.
Hunt would be great, but I don't see it happening.
We might have a long wait. Kemi Badenoch, eventually?
I just want someone at least vaguely honest and vaguely competent. I don't particularly care these days even which party they come from... although I am sure that will change once their policies start hitting me personally
But for now a smidgen of competence and a smidgen of honesty would make a refreshing change.
Agreed Richard. I don't even care much these days which way a person voted on Brexit, I just want integrity and competence, and someone that looks vaguely Prime Ministerial, not someone who looks like he has a side hustle with Billy Smarts.
That seems pretty clear, that "X" for just one ballot choice is that candidate, as per – Rule 44(2)(b) whatever THAT says exactly.\
EDIT - In Scotland anyway.
Rule 44
(2)A ballot paper on which the vote is marked—
(a)elsewhere than in the proper place; (b)otherwise than by means of a figure indicating a first or subsequent preference; or (c)by more than one mark, shall not for such reason be deemed to be void by reason only of indicating a preference by the use of words (or any other mark) instead of figures, if in the opinion of the returning officer the word or mark clearly indicates a preference or preferences, and the way the paper is marked does not itself identify the voter and it is not shown that such voter can be identified by it.
Was the ballot paper that sparked this very interesting discussion cast in Scotland?
Yes. Scotland is a paradise for students of voting systems. We have FPTP, modified de Hondt, STV (with AV for byelections). We also used to have pure Party List when we were in the EU.
Pointed that out a couple of hours ago. The headlines really need a rewrite. A simply stunning result by the Lib Dems who are currently +176 in England alone. The yellow peril is back in the game.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.
I'm not holding my breath!
I voted for Brexit but I want all of those things too. I thought that a Rishi led government might give us quite a number of them but he is now more torpedoed than a Russian frigate. And his budget was poor, to be fair. Hunt? Maybe, but I don't see how he wins.
Hunt would be great, but I don't see it happening.
We might have a long wait. Kemi Badenoch, eventually?
I just want someone at least vaguely honest and vaguely competent. I don't particularly care these days even which party they come from... although I am sure that will change once their policies start hitting me personally
But for now a smidgen of competence and a smidgen of honesty would make a refreshing change.
Agreed Richard. I don't even care much these days which way a person voted on Brexit, I just want integrity and competence, and someone that looks vaguely Prime Ministerial, not someone who looks like he has a side hustle with Billy Smarts.
JohnO, some good news! Have just contacted Marjorie Taylor Greene's congressional office, and Tucker Carlson's booking agent, alerting them to your situation.
They are flying out immediately to assist you in overturning this obviously rigged result!
Pointed that out a couple of hours ago. The headlines really need a rewrite. A simply stunning result by the Lib Dems who are currently +176 in England alone. The yellow peril is back in the game.
Lab excluding London now back in net loss territory as well
Elmbridge Borough District Council Hersham Village - results Election Candidate Party Votes % Outcome CHANDLER Chester Robert Liberal Democrat 1122 45.1% Elected O'REILLY John Conservative 1102 44.3% Not elected HAINES Kelly Suzanne Labour 262 10.5% Not elected
Personally have mixed emotions!
Clear our JohnO fought the good fight, in true Irish style. And that what bested him was not HIS sins & errors.
We don't know that was the reason the vote swung yellow, just that was his constituents decided.
Are you implying, that the good (and bad) electors of Elmbridge got wind that JohnO was consorting with a pack of virtual hooligans on an extremely dodgy website devoted to high-stakes gambling, low-tech dildo manufacturing, alternative-vote propaganda, and other deviant activity?
He looks in the clear to me unless I'm missing something. It was a legal gathering if "reasonably necessary" for work purposes - a test I'd have thought it meets.
Pointed that out a couple of hours ago. The headlines really need a rewrite. A simply stunning result by the Lib Dems who are currently +176 in England alone. The yellow peril is back in the game.
Lab excluding London now back in net loss territory as well
Lutfur Rahman gets over 11,000 more first preference votes for Tower Hamlets mayor than Labour's John Biggs.
But it's not quite enough to win outright. Second preferences will now be counted.
John Biggs, Labour: 27,894 Lutfur Rahman, Aspire: 39,533
#LocalElections2022
Cannot believe that man is still a player there. Shocking.
The whole affair was disgraceful, including how it was left to random citizens to bring down the crook in the first place.
It's politics imported directly from the way it works in Bangladesh. That is what happens when you get a concentration of immigration in one place and little cultural assimilation.
Elmbridge Borough District Council Hersham Village - results Election Candidate Party Votes % Outcome CHANDLER Chester Robert Liberal Democrat 1122 45.1% Elected O'REILLY John Conservative 1102 44.3% Not elected HAINES Kelly Suzanne Labour 262 10.5% Not elected
Personally have mixed emotions!
Clear our JohnO fought the good fight, in true Irish style. And that what bested him was not HIS sins & errors.
We don't know that was the reason the vote swung yellow, just that was his constituents decided.
Are you implying, that the good (and bad) electors of Elmbridge got wind that JohnO was consorting with a pack of virtual hooligans on an extremely dodgy website devoted to high-stakes gambling, low-tech dildo manufacturing, alternative-vote propaganda, and other deviant activity?
No, just that there is more rotten in the Tory party than just the leadership. Changing the leader is not the only thing required to detox the Nasty Party.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.
I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.
I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.
I'm not holding my breath!
I voted for Brexit but I want all of those things too. I thought that a Rishi led government might give us quite a number of them but he is now more torpedoed than a Russian frigate. And his budget was poor, to be fair. Hunt? Maybe, but I don't see how he wins.
Hunt would be great, but I don't see it happening.
We might have a long wait. Kemi Badenoch, eventually?
I just want someone at least vaguely honest and vaguely competent. I don't particularly care these days even which party they come from... although I am sure that will change once their policies start hitting me personally
But for now a smidgen of competence and a smidgen of honesty would make a refreshing change.
Agreed Richard. I don't even care much these days which way a person voted on Brexit, I just want integrity and competence, and someone that looks vaguely Prime Ministerial, not someone who looks like he has a side hustle with Billy Smarts.
JohnO, some good news! Have just contacted Marjorie Taylor Greene's congressional office, and Tucker Carlson's booking agent, alerting them to your situation.
They are flying out immediately to assist you in overturning this obviously rigged result!
Make Hersham Great Again - I rather like that.
Hersham boys, hersham boys, laced up boots and corduroys.
Surely if Starmer is as bad as some PB Tories think he is, they must praying he doesn't get a FPN. Unless they think Yvette or Rachel Reeves would be worse as leader.
He looks in the clear to me unless I'm missing something. It was a legal gathering if "reasonably necessary" for work purposes - a test I'd have thought it meets.
Starmer's just been interviewed, and seems supremely confident that there was no breach of the rules up north. If he's right, this may turn out okay for him in contrast to the No. 10 FPNs.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.
I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.
I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.
I'm not holding my breath!
I voted for Brexit but I want all of those things too. I thought that a Rishi led government might give us quite a number of them but he is now more torpedoed than a Russian frigate. And his budget was poor, to be fair. Hunt? Maybe, but I don't see how he wins.
Hunt would be great, but I don't see it happening.
We might have a long wait. Kemi Badenoch, eventually?
I just want someone at least vaguely honest and vaguely competent. I don't particularly care these days even which party they come from... although I am sure that will change once their policies start hitting me personally
But for now a smidgen of competence and a smidgen of honesty would make a refreshing change.
Agreed Richard. I don't even care much these days which way a person voted on Brexit, I just want integrity and competence, and someone that looks vaguely Prime Ministerial, not someone who looks like he has a side hustle with Billy Smarts.
Surely if Starmer is as bad as some PB Tories think he is, they must praying he doesn't get a FPN. Unless they think Yvette or Rachel Reeves would be worse as leader.
It’s really hard to know how good he is because I can’t quite work out what their manifesto will look like.
But I don’t think we should assume Starmer resigns should he get a fine.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.
I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.
I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
That seems pretty clear, that "X" for just one ballot choice is that candidate, as per – Rule 44(2)(b) whatever THAT says exactly.\
EDIT - In Scotland anyway.
Rule 44
(2)A ballot paper on which the vote is marked—
(a)elsewhere than in the proper place; (b)otherwise than by means of a figure indicating a first or subsequent preference; or (c)by more than one mark, shall not for such reason be deemed to be void by reason only of indicating a preference by the use of words (or any other mark) instead of figures, if in the opinion of the returning officer the word or mark clearly indicates a preference or preferences, and the way the paper is marked does not itself identify the voter and it is not shown that such voter can be identified by it.
Was the ballot paper that sparked this very interesting discussion cast in Scotland?
Yes. Scotland is a paradise for students of voting systems. We have FPTP, modified de Hondt, STV (with AV for byelections). We also used to have pure Party List when we were in the EU.
Is it possible, or likely, that the case of the disallowed X will be appealed and adjudicated in court?
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.
I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.
I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
I agree; the way that they were harassed and conned into leaving the UK on grounds that turneds out to be completely spurious. I saw that bullying from the Home Office happen with elderly neighbours who had been living in the UK for half a century. If HMG had put as much energy into sorting out import procedures ...
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
If you don't want to do analysis and just stuck with this line then that's fine.
Surely if Starmer is as bad as some PB Tories think he is, they must praying he doesn't get a FPN. Unless they think Yvette or Rachel Reeves would be worse as leader.
Reeves is in the room. The whole shadow cabinets there.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.
I'm not holding my breath!
As another former Tory (council candidate & voter) I can't imagine what they can do to demonstrate that they can be trusted. They have a decade or so of just being "wrong" (IMHO) economically, socially, morally etc. Johnson is a symptom not a cause.
And how long should Labour have to wait, to be trusted, after they actually elected a traitorous, IRA-supporting, Hamas-hugging, anti-Semitic, Putin-forgiving communist as LEADER? 30 years? More? Corbyn only resigned at the end of 2019. Two and a half years ago
People forgive and forget pretty quick. Once Boris goes, if he goes, the cavalcade of disapproval will move on
Only Tony Blair seems to receive perpetual condemnation, for all eternity. A peculiar thing
Comments
In contrast, our own Mr Bell stood up for his own constituents against the scandalous behaviour of Johnson and his servile cronies, and the electors have just rewarded him for doing so.
It is very useful to be able to identify a sinking ship in good time.
Seems that this was NOT part of instructions for case described by ScottxP?
We might have a long wait. Kemi Badenoch, eventually?
Wakefield Rural
Name Party Votes %
BRYAN, Jordan Phillip Labour Party 1838 36.8
DAVIES, Lien Kerry Freedom Alliance. The Real Alternative 69 1.4
HARVEY, Samantha (Elected) The Conservative Party Candidate 2347 47.0
HERDSON, David John Rowntree Yorkshire Party 428 8.6
SADLER, Karen Green Party 314 6.3
Majority 509 10.2
Spoiled Votes 8
% turnout 36.4
Total Votes 4,996
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/61342349
EDIT - In Scotland anyway.
(2)A ballot paper on which the vote is marked—
(a)elsewhere than in the proper place;
(b)otherwise than by means of a figure indicating a first or subsequent preference; or
(c)by more than one mark,
shall not for such reason be deemed to be void by reason only of indicating a preference by the use of words (or any other mark) instead of figures, if in the opinion of the returning officer the word or mark clearly indicates a preference or preferences, and the way the paper is marked does not itself identify the voter and it is not shown that such voter can be identified by it.
https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1522616466801106946
This is an area where amateur election nerds take a very very strict view of things (it says mark with an X, what if someone ticks instead, oh no!), but the Electoral Commission and case law is much more sensible
Edit: I was surprised by the ranking one being ok too, as I'd say what if someone is giving people scores out of 6, say, but rules is rules. Goes in the doubtful pile, and it will be assessed.
Quite an achievement by both, especially considering the normal connotations if the two party colours in Glaswegian popular culture.
But for now a smidgen of competence and a smidgen of honesty would make a refreshing change.
They are flying out immediately to assist you in overturning this obviously rigged result!
Quite a surprise there.
And if Starmer doesn't then who could have even imagined it (big if)
Witney South (West Oxfordshire) election result:
Labour GAIN from Conservative.
Lab: 46.1% (+4.9)
Con: 42.1% (-0.8)
Grn: 11.8% (+3.2)
More:
https://t.co/jlefq2hxg5
This is a disaster for the Tories.
LD 14,021
Con 9,108
Ind 3,089
Lab 1,794
Green 1,404
Heritage 198
LD 47.3%
Con 30.8%
Ind 10.4%
Lab 6.1%
Green 4.7%
Heritage 0.7%
The Tories don't deserve the next election if they don't get rid of him now.
This isn’t a good day for the Tories in Wales - and their Senedd leader has said the U.K. wide sentiment worked against them.
https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1522621238371364864
But I don’t think we should assume Starmer resigns should he get a fine.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1522621649983614981
As we have all said 1,000,000 times now, "Labour doing as well in the red wall as when they held the red wall" is not bad news for the party.
This investigation will go nowhere, there is no case to answer. No rules were broken as is clearly obvious.
And how long should Labour have to wait, to be trusted, after they actually elected a traitorous, IRA-supporting, Hamas-hugging, anti-Semitic, Putin-forgiving communist as LEADER? 30 years? More? Corbyn only resigned at the end of 2019. Two and a half years ago
People forgive and forget pretty quick. Once Boris goes, if he goes, the cavalcade of disapproval will move on
Only Tony Blair seems to receive perpetual condemnation, for all eternity. A peculiar thing