Elmbridge Borough District Council Hersham Village - results Election Candidate Party Votes % Outcome CHANDLER Chester Robert Liberal Democrat 1122 45.1% Elected O'REILLY John Conservative 1102 44.3% Not elected HAINES Kelly Suzanne Labour 262 10.5% Not elected
Personally have mixed emotions!
Clear our JohnO fought the good fight, in true Irish style. And that what bested him was not HIS sins & errors.
We don't know that was the reason the vote swung yellow, just that was his constituents decided.
Are you implying, that the good (and bad) electors of Elmbridge got wind that JohnO was consorting with a pack of virtual hooligans on an extremely dodgy website devoted to high-stakes gambling, low-tech dildo manufacturing, alternative-vote propaganda, and other deviant activity?
No, just that there is more rotten in the Tory party than just the leadership. Changing the leader is not the only thing required to detox the Nasty Party.
True enough. Just sorta doubt JohnO's personal toxicity level was determinative.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
If you don't want to do analysis and just stuck with this line then that's fine.
As we have all said 1,000,000 times now, "Labour doing as well in the red wall as when they held the red wall" is not bad news for the party.
Once again, a local election isn't comparable to a GE. In 2018 Labour "held" all of those at a local election and then got battered at a GE. In loads of those seats they were also close to losing on 2017. The dynamics of a GE are completely different to a LE.
Labour needs to be doing significantly better than their 2018 performance to be on course to win, unless you forgot they haven't actually fucking won an election since 2005.
This is no seismic Labour victory. But with Labour's best result in 10 years and attrition on both flanks, some Conservatives are in denial about the problem they face - and risk sleepwalking into electoral defeat come 2024.
Conservative results terrible in Wales. It's going to be 400+ losses.
Lot of good work over recent years being undone there, it seems.
I was wrong thinking, because Wales been so strongly Brexit Labour would struggle to do this.. I wonder if the children getting the vote cancelled out Tory Brexit ace card? Nits straight forward Tory to Labour switching.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
If you don't want to do analysis and just stuck with this line then that's fine.
As we have all said 1,000,000 times now, "Labour doing as well in the red wall as when they held the red wall" is not bad news for the party.
Once again, a local election isn't comparable to a GE. In 2018 Labour "held" all of those at a local election and then got battered at a GE. In loads of those seats they were also close to losing on 2017. The dynamics of a GE are completely different to a LE.
Labour needs to be doing significantly better than their 2018 performance to be on course to win, unless you forgot they haven't actually fucking won an election since 2005.
I didn't realise you knew more than Opinium or Redfield Wilton. Okay mate you do you.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
Where's this "no gains" coming from? It's over 100. Which was my par score coming in. The rest of it may be right. But a Lib Dem comeback is a necessary, but not sufficient condition of NOM. That is certainly happening.
Wakefield Rural Name Party Votes % BRYAN, Jordan Phillip Labour Party 1838 36.8 DAVIES, Lien Kerry Freedom Alliance. The Real Alternative 69 1.4 HARVEY, Samantha (Elected) The Conservative Party Candidate 2347 47.0 HERDSON, David John Rowntree Yorkshire Party 428 8.6 SADLER, Karen Green Party 314 6.3 Majority 509 10.2 Spoiled Votes 8 % turnout 36.4 Total Votes 4,996
Wakefield Constituency Overall (change from LE 21 in brackets)
Lab: 50.6 (+8.6) Con 33.6 (-13.4) YP 5.8 (+4.7) Green 5.1 (-2.0) LD 3.5 (+2.4) Others 1.5 (NC)
The mind concentrating effect of a by- election is some of the massive swing here, but it is also down to a large swing in Wakefield E, which went from a Con win to Lab 70% because of which candidates were from the community.
Again, gives hope for the mind concentrating effect of a GE that the late swing might be in Labour's favour.
Pointed that out a couple of hours ago. The headlines really need a rewrite. A simply stunning result by the Lib Dems who are currently +176 in England alone. The yellow peril is back in the game.
Lab excluding London now back in net loss territory as well
Scotland and Wales don't count?
They never have, but at least the Scots knew that....
JohnO, some good news! Have just contacted Marjorie Taylor Greene's congressional office, and Tucker Carlson's booking agent, alerting them to your situation.
They are flying out immediately to assist you in overturning this obviously rigged result!
Make Hersham Great Again - I rather like that.
Hersham boys, hersham boys, laced up boots and corduroys.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.
I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.
I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
No, you encourage them to take it personally.
It was personal, and that made it personal for me too.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.
I'm not holding my breath!
As another former Tory (council candidate & voter) I can't imagine what they can do to demonstrate that they can be trusted. They have a decade or so of just being "wrong" (IMHO) economically, socially, morally etc. Johnson is a symptom not a cause.
And how long should Labour have to wait, to be trusted, after they actually elected a traitorous, IRA-supporting, Hamas-hugging, anti-Semitic, Putin-forgiving communist as LEADER? 30 years? More? Corbyn only resigned at the end of 2019. Two and a half years ago
People forgive and forget pretty quick. Once Boris goes, if he goes, the cavalcade of disapproval will move on
Only Tony Blair seems to receive perpetual condemnation, for all eternity. A peculiar thing
On the other hand people only just seem up to forgiving the LDs for the coalition and that was 7 years ago.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.
I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.
I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
Factually wrong, as is often the case with you. Polls at the time, and afterwards, had sovereignty as the major driver for a Leave vote.
Lord Ashcroft did the biggest poll of all. 12,000 people
“Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”
We've gone about three hours without the PB Thinkcrime Police demanding his execution for something for which they praise Mr Johnson. Quite a pleasant change.
Boris is one of theirs, a "good egg", been to Eton old boy, won them the election, etc etc. Party before country. Johnson could eat babies on TV and they would still excuse him.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
If you don't want to do analysis and just stuck with this line then that's fine.
As we have all said 1,000,000 times now, "Labour doing as well in the red wall as when they held the red wall" is not bad news for the party.
Once again, a local election isn't comparable to a GE. In 2018 Labour "held" all of those at a local election and then got battered at a GE. In loads of those seats they were also close to losing on 2017. The dynamics of a GE are completely different to a LE.
Labour needs to be doing significantly better than their 2018 performance to be on course to win, unless you forgot they haven't actually fucking won an election since 2005.
I didn't realise you knew more than Opinium or Redfield Wilton. Okay mate you do you.
I've successfully made a living from being better informed than the "experts". In fact a significant number of PBers are in the same category, it's why there's such a random collection of knowledge and insight here that you don't get elsewhere.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
Wait, are you assuming the election will be free and fair?
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
Where's this "no gains" coming from? It's over 100. Which was my par score coming in. The rest of it may be right. But a Lib Dem comeback is a necessary, but not sufficient condition of NOM. That is certainly happening.
Regaining the 2018 position is a major turnaround for Labour.
It is a rather plodding, unspectacular, under the radar win, much like Starmer himself.
JohnO, some good news! Have just contacted Marjorie Taylor Greene's congressional office, and Tucker Carlson's booking agent, alerting them to your situation.
They are flying out immediately to assist you in overturning this obviously rigged result!
Make Hersham Great Again - I rather like that.
Hersham boys, hersham boys, laced up boots and corduroys.
knowing how much the Tories love the story of this morning rather than the current reality - may I draw people's attention to NI where currently Sinn Fein have 15 seats and the DUP a total of 2.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
The other thing to note, going into the last General Election it was Tories +UKIP making something like nearly 60% before Tories (Cummings) done that truly brilliant thing of corralling the UKIP to the Tories, like a cowboy stealing someone else’s heard.
Since that moment that huge % has basically halved. Quite a fight on their hands to fight back in the next two years?
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
He looks in the clear to me unless I'm missing something. It was a legal gathering if "reasonably necessary" for work purposes - a test I'd have thought it meets.
Starmer's just been interviewed, and seems supremely confident that there was no breach of the rules up north. If he's right, this may turn out okay for him in contrast to the No. 10 FPNs.
Yep, I think so. With more FPNs (and Grey) to come for BoJo. Plus these results getting worse for the Cons. And yet - if we're totally honest - also a teeny bit disappointing for Labour in the circumstances. Just a very interesting situation, basically, with a GE 2 years away.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
He looks in the clear to me unless I'm missing something. It was a legal gathering if "reasonably necessary" for work purposes - a test I'd have thought it meets.
Starmer's just been interviewed, and seems supremely confident that there was no breach of the rules up north. If he's right, this may turn out okay for him in contrast to the No. 10 FPNs.
Now that Durham have reopened the investigation into Starmer, will they reopen the one into Cummings who has after all admitted he repeatedly lied about the reasons he went north? (Admittedly, only while telling a pack of different transparent lies that a fairly bright three year old wouldn't bother with.)
knowing how much the Tories love the story of this morning rather than the current reality - may I draw people's attention to NI where currently Sinn Fein have 15 seats and the DUP a total of 2.
SF holding their FP vote share too. With only one constituency to come. Something of a surprise that.
JohnO, some good news! Have just contacted Marjorie Taylor Greene's congressional office, and Tucker Carlson's booking agent, alerting them to your situation.
They are flying out immediately to assist you in overturning this obviously rigged result!
Make Hersham Great Again - I rather like that.
Hersham boys, hersham boys, laced up boots and corduroys.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
The other thing to note, going into the last General Election it was Tories +UKIP making something like nearly 60% before Tories (Cummings) done that truly brilliant thing of corralling the UKIP to the Tories, like a cowboy stealing someone else’s heard.
Since that moment that huge % has basically halved. Quite a fight on their hands to fight back in the next two years?
It’s one way of looking at it?
The combined Tory + UKIP/BXP share was never near 60%!
JohnO, some good news! Have just contacted Marjorie Taylor Greene's congressional office, and Tucker Carlson's booking agent, alerting them to your situation.
They are flying out immediately to assist you in overturning this obviously rigged result!
Make Hersham Great Again - I rather like that.
Hersham boys, hersham boys, laced up boots and corduroys.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
The LibDems are going to do a lot better than they did in 2015, 2017 and 2019. Labour will do better than it did in 2019. The Tories could well win most seats, but I think a majority is tough with Johnson in charge. He is actively disliked by too many voters in a way that neither Major nor Cameron were. It's visceral with him. And Johnson is going nowhere.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
Holden highlighted an invitation for a “quiz and social in-person event” on Facebook from the City of Durham Labour Party, on the same evening that Starmer was drinking beer. Foy encouraged attendees to have a “greasy night”, which is slang for drinking
@susannareid100 Jeremy Corbyn describes the police investigation into allegations Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer broke covid rules “very serious” and “a huge development”.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
Which you originally thought the Tories would hold.
knowing how much the Tories love the story of this morning rather than the current reality - may I draw people's attention to NI where currently Sinn Fein have 15 seats and the DUP a total of 2.
SF holding their FP vote share too. With only one constituency to come. Something of a surprise that.
Looking round - one area of interest is Foyle where it seems Sinn Fein were right to pick 2 candidates as the 3 SDLP candidates seem to have taken bites out of each other.
Pointed that out a couple of hours ago. The headlines really need a rewrite. A simply stunning result by the Lib Dems who are currently +176 in England alone. The yellow peril is back in the game.
Lab excluding London now back in net loss territory as well
How are you Corbynites allowed to pick and choose what should and shouldn't be counted? If we discount London, Wales and Scotland Labour are doing worse than Corbyn four years ago is not how it works.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
Which you originally thought the Tories would hold.
How’s Minor County West getting on then?
We have had the worst of the weather today. At least Surrey didn't have home umpires.
But look at your lot...can't even knock over Alistair Cook.
@susannareid100 Jeremy Corbyn describes the police investigation into allegations Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer broke covid rules “very serious” and “a huge development”.
Holden highlighted an invitation for a “quiz and social in-person event” on Facebook from the City of Durham Labour Party, on the same evening that Starmer was drinking beer. Foy encouraged attendees to have a “greasy night”, which is slang for drinking
Eh? Is that it?
Remember, Johnson got a FPN for sitting at the cabinet desk while some colleagues working in other rooms came for a few minutes without even eating or drinking. The bar is extremely low!
Pointed that out a couple of hours ago. The headlines really need a rewrite. A simply stunning result by the Lib Dems who are currently +176 in England alone. The yellow peril is back in the game.
Lab excluding London now back in net loss territory as well
How are you Corbynites allowed to pick and choose what should and shouldn't be counted? If we discount London, Wales and Scotland Labour are doing worse than Corbyn four years ago is not how it works.
Beware cherry pickers. Or is it cherry pickers of the world unite?
Another way of looking at it is, is the Labour vote gain offset by losses in a way that doesn’t matter? For sure Labour have lost an unexpected number of seats to Greens and Libdems, that means they won more than they lost as well. Not all wins and losses are equal, some are bad, they hurt, some are good, good swing right place.
For example the Labour gains in Peterborough, Bridgend, are not offset in anyway by the loss of seats in Hull, in terms of preparation for a general election.
This is why start of evening - oh we into another one, I meant the last one - Labour spun the line don’t look at seat gains look at vote share and GE projections.
Cultural observation from the Turkish eastern Aegean
1. the only thing rarer than face-masks in Kusadasi, Turkey, is a headscarf on a woman. About 3% wear facemasks. So that’s not a lot of headscarves (full-on niqabs or whatever are simply non-existent). This town is overwhelmingly secular. The muezzin are drowned out by the Ibizan chillaxo-funk from from all the bars. And it is Friday evening
And yes I know this Turkish coast has always been westernized and secular, but I’ve been here a few times over the decades and it has definitely got MORE secular and westernized
2. The average citizen here probably has a higher quality of life than the average Alabaman or Mississippian - or the average Red Waller, for that matter - taking everything into account: climate, food, architecture, landscape, health, culture
It reminds me of a prosperous, coastal part of Catalonia or Languedoc
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
1992 had a moderately strong Lib Lab understanding of who would fight the Tories where, which the voters tacitly understood. Hence Major's 42% giving a thin majority.
2015 was peak Lib on Lab war action. Whatever the opposite of tactical voting is. Hence Cameron winning on a much lower percentage.
What do you really think 2024 will be like?
Starmer is not a winner, sure. But unless the Conservatives properly relaunch, he may not need to be.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
Owen Paterson scandal should have been enough.
The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse wouldn't persuade this lot to act.
They're more spineless and dishonest than the board of Yorkshire County Cricket Club.
Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.
Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.
I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.
Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.
Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.
Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907 Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote. To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet: UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016) UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion
People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.
I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.
I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
Factually wrong, as is often the case with you. Polls at the time, and afterwards, had sovereignty as the major driver for a Leave vote.
Lord Ashcroft did the biggest poll of all. 12,000 people
“Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”
"Sovereignty" is a pc way of saying "Immigration" though. It's a nice, noble sounding thing c.f. border control which sounds rather harsh and specific. Therefore the 1st concern is often a cypher for the 2nd. Plus many of the Leave respondents wouldn't understand the questions. So I'd be a bit skeptical of that poll.
Cultural observation from the Turkish eastern Aegean
1. the only thing rarer than face-masks in Kusadasi, Turkey, is a headscarf on a woman. About 3% wear facemasks. So that’s not a lot of headscarves (full-on niqabs or whatever are simply non-existent). This town is overwhelmingly secular. The muezzin are drowned out by the Ibizan chillaxo-funk from from all the bars. And it is Friday evening
And yes I know this Turkish coast has always been westernized and secular, but I’ve been here a few times over the decades and it has definitely got MORE secular and westernized
2. The average citizen here probably has a higher quality of life than the average Alabaman or Mississippian - or the average Red Waller, for that matter - taking everything into account: climate, food, architecture, landscape, health, culture
It reminds me of a prosperous, coastal part of Catalonia or Languedoc
I worked there twice but I wouldn't go overboard. Better than the Red Wall certainly
@susannareid100 Jeremy Corbyn describes the police investigation into allegations Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer broke covid rules “very serious” and “a huge development”.
Scottish Labour is now the defender of the Union, another Tory campaign point gone
That's way better for SNP than I expected. I thought their range was somewhere between static and a quietly surprising reverse. As in, I wouldn't have been shocked with -30. Those unionist transfers must have completely evaporated.
I'm calling it. Indy/union is no longer the defining divide in Scotland. It's back to Tory/not.
PA couldn't be arsed to include the SGs. Important part of the picture. Seems they doubled, but didn;t overtake the LDs as they did long ago in Holyrood.
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
Owen Paterson scandal should have been enough.
The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse wouldn't persuade this lot to act.
They're more spineless and dishonest than the board of Yorkshire County Cricket Club.
Cultural observation from the Turkish eastern Aegean
1. the only thing rarer than face-masks in Kusadasi, Turkey, is a headscarf on a woman. About 3% wear facemasks. So that’s not a lot of headscarves (full-on niqabs or whatever are simply non-existent). This town is overwhelmingly secular. The muezzin are drowned out by the Ibizan chillaxo-funk from from all the bars. And it is Friday evening
And yes I know this Turkish coast has always been westernized and secular, but I’ve been here a few times over the decades and it has definitely got MORE secular and westernized
2. The average citizen here probably has a higher quality of life than the average Alabaman or Mississippian - or the average Red Waller, for that matter - taking everything into account: climate, food, architecture, landscape, health, culture
It reminds me of a prosperous, coastal part of Catalonia or Languedoc
I worked there twice but I wouldn't go overboard. Better than the Red Wall certainly
When were you last here?
There’s a lot of new development, I am told. Especially on the waterfront. It is REALLY well done
Looking at where the likely transfers will go in the NI results it looks like game over for the DUP .
Sinn Fein to have the largest share of the vote and most assembly members . And in Michelle O’Neil they have a very charismatic and charming First Minister .
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
Owen Paterson scandal should have been enough.
The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse wouldn't persuade this lot to act.
They're more spineless and dishonest than the board of Yorkshire County Cricket Club.
SNP 454 (+23) Lab 281 (+19) Con 215 (-61) Ind 152 (-16) LD 87 (+20) Green 34 (+15) Others 3 (-1)
This is significant. Labour revival in Scotland is continuing and Nicola Sturgeon has issued a typically pissy comment, saying Labour's gain is all about the tory vote collapse.
If Labour push on towards 15-20 MPs in Scotland it sure helps their cause.
I suppose the best result for Labour would be a Boris survival. Keir Starmer going wouldn't be terrible for Labour, as long as Angela Rayner doesn't get a fine too.
Looking at where the likely transfers will go in the NI results it looks like game over for the DUP .
Sinn Fein to have the largest share of the vote and most assembly members . And in Michelle O’Neil they have a very charismatic and charming First Minister .
It's the second party that really interests me ...
Mediocre for labour, A mixed bag for the Tories but pretty bad in their heartlands, a good result for the Lib Dems. The greens gained a handful.
Overall the winners last night are the Lib Dems.
Fair summary. It does look as though the Lib-Dems have been forgiven for the coalition and are now back in the game.
Of course the Lib-Dem success will melt away like June snow in the general election...
Yes, but for the Tories that is a problem. Those green and yellow votes are not turning blue in a tactical squeeze.
Yeah... but then Con will get some voters back from the Lib-Dems and a lot of the Con voters that stayed at home for this election will turn out for the General so it's swings and roundabouts...
Holden highlighted an invitation for a “quiz and social in-person event” on Facebook from the City of Durham Labour Party, on the same evening that Starmer was drinking beer. Foy encouraged attendees to have a “greasy night”, which is slang for drinking
Eh? Is that it?
Remember, Johnson got a FPN for sitting at the cabinet desk while some colleagues working in other rooms came for a few minutes without even eating or drinking. The bar is extremely low!
The police would not have reopened the investigation without further evidence and to be fair it is unwise to make judgement on it before the police do
@susannareid100 Jeremy Corbyn describes the police investigation into allegations Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer broke covid rules “very serious” and “a huge development”.
Translation: "... a huge opportunity to put me back in charge..."
I know The Cult want it, but I'm not convinced he'd be that keen himself. Had a face like a slapped arse whenever someone dared to ask him a question about anything (though particularly about things he'd said on the back benches).
@susannareid100 Jeremy Corbyn describes the police investigation into allegations Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer broke covid rules “very serious” and “a huge development”.
meanwhile, back at the ranch, in this case the Lazy B . . . more blowback re: Boeing decision to move HQ to VA.
from today's Seattle Times ($) commentary by aerospace reporter Dominic Gates:
. . . . Aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia, of Aerodynamic Advisory, said the FAA would have been more impressed by a return to Seattle, signaling a focus on fixing the huge challenges Boeing faces in its major business of making commercial airplanes.
“Boeing’s problem is not with government relations,” he said. “I don’t see doubling down the emphasis on D.C. lobbying as a breakthrough moment. It looks like a recipe for more of the same.”
“Boeing’s pressing need is to restore technical excellence in its most important and neglected business unit, commercial airplanes,” Aboulafia added. “A move back to Seattle would have sent an incredibly powerful message. This is a missed opportunity.”
U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore., chair of the House Committee on Transportation, agreed, calling the headquarters move to Arlington “another step in the wrong direction.”
“Boeing’s problem isn’t a lack of access to government, but rather its ongoing production problems and the failures of management and the board that led to the fatal crashes of the 737 MAX,” DeFazio said in a statement. “Boeing should focus on making safe airplanes — not lobbying federal regulators and Congress.” . . . .
Easing the decision, which was first reported Thursday morning by The Wall Street Journal, the tax incentives the city of Chicago provided Boeing for going there expired in 2021. . . .
The pandemic’s massive impact on the company’s business has forced Boeing to sell off real estate . . . .
Boeing said that in addition to setting up its global headquarters in Arlington, it also “plans to develop a research & technology hub in the area to harness and attract engineering and technical capabilities.” . . . .
In addition to the Puget Sound region, Boeing now has engineering hubs in North Charleston, South Carolina; St. Louis; Seal Beach, California; as well as India. Its engineering centers in Moscow and Kyiv are currently closed due to the war in Ukraine. . . . .
Boeing’s move to Chicago in 2001 from its historical Seattle location ripped apart the company’s legacy in the Pacific Northwest.
The decision to leave Chicago makes clear that move 21 years ago has proved a major flop.
There was never any real rationale offered for choosing Chicago that made sense for the company’s business. Boeing’s then-CEO, Phil Condit, and its president, Harry Stonecipher, said at the time they wanted the headquarters relocated to a city set apart from Boeing’s main business units. . . . .
The new headquarters quickly was seen as an ivory tower, separated from the realities and complexities of the work that produced the airplanes and the technology that determined the company’s fate. . . . .
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
Owen Paterson scandal should have been enough.
The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse wouldn't persuade this lot to act.
They're more spineless and dishonest than the board of Yorkshire County Cricket Club.
Holden highlighted an invitation for a “quiz and social in-person event” on Facebook from the City of Durham Labour Party, on the same evening that Starmer was drinking beer. Foy encouraged attendees to have a “greasy night”, which is slang for drinking
Eh? Is that it?
Remember, Johnson got a FPN for sitting at the cabinet desk while some colleagues working in other rooms came for a few minutes without even eating or drinking. The bar is extremely low!
The police would not have reopened the investigation without further evidence and to be fair it is unwise to make judgement on it before the police do
Utter bollox - I suspect they've re-opened because they've got fed up with the management time they are wasting dealing with questions about it.
Holden highlighted an invitation for a “quiz and social in-person event” on Facebook from the City of Durham Labour Party, on the same evening that Starmer was drinking beer. Foy encouraged attendees to have a “greasy night”, which is slang for drinking
Eh? Is that it?
Remember, Johnson got a FPN for sitting at the cabinet desk while some colleagues working in other rooms came for a few minutes without even eating or drinking. The bar is extremely low!
The police would not have reopened the investigation without further evidence and to be fair it is unwise to make judgement on it before the police do
Quite a confession from you there. Off to prison you go!
Looking at where the likely transfers will go in the NI results it looks like game over for the DUP .
Sinn Fein to have the largest share of the vote and most assembly members . And in Michelle O’Neil they have a very charismatic and charming First Minister .
It's the second party that really interests me ...
I think it will be the DUP in second place , I can’t see the Alliance picking up enough transfers .
But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.
We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.
1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
1992 had a moderately strong Lib Lab understanding of who would fight the Tories where, which the voters tacitly understood. Hence Major's 42% giving a thin majority.
2015 was peak Lib on Lab war action. Whatever the opposite of tactical voting is. Hence Cameron winning on a much lower percentage.
What do you really think 2024 will be like?
Starmer is not a winner, sure. But unless the Conservatives properly relaunch, he may not need to be.
If I was to put specific number ranges I'd guess at:
Con - 335-340 Lab - 225-230 LD - 20-25 SNP - 40-45
That's with Boris as leader. If the Tories change leadership then I think the Tories could do a lot better, simply because there's a lot of people who voted Tory in 2019 and 2017 but aren't in that Tory column right now but also haven't been won over by Labour. That column of voters has the potential to deliver another Tory landslide that the blue tick wankers on Twitter won't see coming just like 2015.
Holden highlighted an invitation for a “quiz and social in-person event” on Facebook from the City of Durham Labour Party, on the same evening that Starmer was drinking beer. Foy encouraged attendees to have a “greasy night”, which is slang for drinking
Eh? Is that it?
Remember, Johnson got a FPN for sitting at the cabinet desk while some colleagues working in other rooms came for a few minutes without even eating or drinking. The bar is extremely low!
Yes, but the events were 12 months apart and different rules applied, also not an isolated event for the PM.
How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.
I'm not holding my breath!
As another former Tory (council candidate & voter) I can't imagine what they can do to demonstrate that they can be trusted. They have a decade or so of just being "wrong" (IMHO) economically, socially, morally etc. Johnson is a symptom not a cause.
And how long should Labour have to wait, to be trusted, after they actually elected a traitorous, IRA-supporting, Hamas-hugging, anti-Semitic, Putin-forgiving communist as LEADER? 30 years? More? Corbyn only resigned at the end of 2019. Two and a half years ago
People forgive and forget pretty quick. Once Boris goes, if he goes, the cavalcade of disapproval will move on
Only Tony Blair seems to receive perpetual condemnation, for all eternity. A peculiar thing
On the other hand people only just seem up to forgiving the LDs for the coalition and that was 7 years ago.
I think the difference is that the boring decent people stuck around when the entry-ists came and tried to purge them from the Labour Party. The Tories seem to have driven everyone decent out.
And while I am not excited about a Labour Government *in any way* a thorough Tory bloodletting and rebuild is the only way back I see for them.
I have no torch for Labour, so they only need to be "reasonably sensible for a short period of government" rather than actually earning my trust.
I guess the major source of discrepancy in interpretation of the results is whether they are traditional "mid-term" ones. If they are, then those who are shrugging them off for the Tories definitely have a point. But for me, so much has changed since 2015 that talking about what is happening now in terms of what happened before is a mistake: the Scottish independence referendum, Brexit, Corbyn, covid and a cost of living squeeze that's only just begun have altered the landscape to a huge extent. Politics will be seen very much in terms of pre- and post-2015 in years to come, I reckon. Obviously, I could be totally wrong. It has been known ;-)
Comments
Labour needs to be doing significantly better than their 2018 performance to be on course to win, unless you forgot they haven't actually fucking won an election since 2005.
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1522575404648775680
It's over 100. Which was my par score coming in.
The rest of it may be right. But a Lib Dem comeback is a necessary, but not sufficient condition of NOM. That is certainly happening.
Lab: 50.6 (+8.6)
Con 33.6 (-13.4)
YP 5.8 (+4.7)
Green 5.1 (-2.0)
LD 3.5 (+2.4)
Others 1.5 (NC)
The mind concentrating effect of a by- election is some of the massive swing here, but it is also down to a large swing in Wakefield E, which went from a Con win to Lab 70% because of which candidates were from the community.
Again, gives hope for the mind concentrating effect of a GE that the late swing might be in Labour's favour.
The Red Wall has not returned at once - but it has swung back.
Tories: -347 councillors
-10 Councils
Labour: +99 councillors
+8 Councils
Lib: +170
+2 Councils
Green: +63 councillors
But yeah, the tories have done 'relatively well' in losing 1/5 seats they were defending.
Lord Ashcroft did the biggest poll of all. 12,000 people
“Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/02/how-the-uk-voted-on-brexit-and-why-a-refresher/
I’m sure the experts here have it 165 based on opinion polls, with the possibility the Tory’s can do better than that?
It was all-out on new boundaries, so anything can happen.
And the Lib Dems did win on seats on the day as recently as 2018, albeit in a fairly flukey way.
And Gosport Libs' head honcho is still very good at what he does.
But yes... The Conservatives had a shocker there.
It is a rather plodding, unspectacular, under the radar win, much like Starmer himself.
SNP: 453 [+62]
Labour: 282 [+40]
Tories: 214 [-44]
Independent: 152 [-80]
Lib Dems: 87 [+20]
*via PA*
So Labour leapfrogs Tories into 2nd place
Scottish Labour is now the defender of the Union, another Tory campaign point gone
Hope you are keeping well friend
Since that moment that huge % has basically halved. Quite a fight on their hands to fight back in the next two years?
It’s one way of looking at it?
Overall the winners last night are the Lib Dems.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
Of course the Lib-Dem success will melt away like June snow in the general election...
54.9% to 45.1% in the run-off
Eh? Is that it?
Jeremy Corbyn describes the police investigation into allegations Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer broke covid rules “very serious” and “a huge development”.
https://twitter.com/susannareid100/status/1522622371131240448
How’s Minor County West getting on then?
Or do you mean, 'he was declared the winner?' Not quite the same thing in his case...
But look at your lot...can't even knock over Alistair Cook.
Labour loses again in Monmouthshire.
Useless tossers all over the nation.
Another way of looking at it is, is the Labour vote gain offset by losses in a way that doesn’t matter? For sure Labour have lost an unexpected number of seats to Greens and Libdems, that means they won more than they lost as well. Not all wins and losses are equal, some are bad, they hurt, some are good, good swing right place.
For example the Labour gains in Peterborough, Bridgend, are not offset in anyway by the loss of seats in Hull, in terms of preparation for a general election.
This is why start of evening - oh we into another one, I meant the last one - Labour spun the line don’t look at seat gains look at vote share and GE projections.
1. the only thing rarer than face-masks in Kusadasi, Turkey, is a headscarf on a woman. About 3% wear facemasks. So that’s not a lot of headscarves (full-on niqabs or whatever are simply non-existent). This town is overwhelmingly secular. The muezzin are drowned out by the Ibizan chillaxo-funk from from all the bars. And it is Friday evening
And yes I know this Turkish coast has always been westernized and secular, but I’ve been here a few times over the decades and it has definitely got MORE secular and westernized
2. The average citizen here probably has a higher quality of life than the average Alabaman or Mississippian - or the average Red Waller, for that matter - taking everything into account: climate, food, architecture, landscape, health, culture
It reminds me of a prosperous, coastal part of Catalonia or Languedoc
Everyone right-leaning I've seen has said the Tories did poorly, but many have said not unexpectedly for midterms.
2015 was peak Lib on Lab war action.
Whatever the opposite of tactical voting is. Hence Cameron winning on a much lower percentage.
What do you really think 2024 will be like?
Starmer is not a winner, sure. But unless the Conservatives properly relaunch, he may not need to be.
They're more spineless and dishonest than the board of Yorkshire County Cricket Club.
It's quite difficult to find somewhere which gives the grand total (?) but that's what it looks like
SNP 454 (+23)
Lab 281 (+19)
Con 215 (-61)
Ind 152 (-16)
LD 87 (+20)
Green 34 (+15)
Others 3 (-1)
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1522628799992680448?s=20&t=YE_bBAXmhvBSZZuh-AWmEw
There’s a lot of new development, I am told. Especially on the waterfront. It is REALLY well done
Adds to the rural carnage.
Lucky not many were up.
Sinn Fein to have the largest share of the vote and most assembly members . And in Michelle O’Neil they have a very charismatic and charming First Minister .
If Labour push on towards 15-20 MPs in Scotland it sure helps their cause.
They make it 414. But aren't always the quickest.
from today's Seattle Times ($) commentary by aerospace reporter Dominic Gates:
. . . . Aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia, of Aerodynamic Advisory, said the FAA would have been more impressed by a return to Seattle, signaling a focus on fixing the huge challenges Boeing faces in its major business of making commercial airplanes.
“Boeing’s problem is not with government relations,” he said. “I don’t see doubling down the emphasis on D.C. lobbying as a breakthrough moment. It looks like a recipe for more of the same.”
“Boeing’s pressing need is to restore technical excellence in its most important and neglected business unit, commercial airplanes,” Aboulafia added. “A move back to Seattle would have sent an incredibly powerful message. This is a missed opportunity.”
U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore., chair of the House Committee on Transportation, agreed, calling the headquarters move to Arlington “another step in the wrong direction.”
“Boeing’s problem isn’t a lack of access to government, but rather its ongoing production problems and the failures of management and the board that led to the fatal crashes of the 737 MAX,” DeFazio said in a statement. “Boeing should focus on making safe airplanes — not lobbying federal regulators and Congress.” . . . .
Easing the decision, which was first reported Thursday morning by The Wall Street Journal, the tax incentives the city of Chicago provided Boeing for going there expired in 2021. . . .
The pandemic’s massive impact on the company’s business has forced Boeing to sell off real estate . . . .
Boeing said that in addition to setting up its global headquarters in Arlington, it also “plans to develop a research & technology hub in the area to harness and attract engineering and technical capabilities.” . . . .
In addition to the Puget Sound region, Boeing now has engineering hubs in North Charleston, South Carolina; St. Louis; Seal Beach, California; as well as India. Its engineering centers in Moscow and Kyiv are currently closed due to the war in Ukraine. . . . .
Boeing’s move to Chicago in 2001 from its historical Seattle location ripped apart the company’s legacy in the Pacific Northwest.
The decision to leave Chicago makes clear that move 21 years ago has proved a major flop.
There was never any real rationale offered for choosing Chicago that made sense for the company’s business. Boeing’s then-CEO, Phil Condit, and its president, Harry Stonecipher, said at the time they wanted the headquarters relocated to a city set apart from Boeing’s main business units. . . . .
The new headquarters quickly was seen as an ivory tower, separated from the realities and complexities of the work that produced the airplanes and the technology that determined the company’s fate. . . . .
Con - 335-340
Lab - 225-230
LD - 20-25
SNP - 40-45
That's with Boris as leader. If the Tories change leadership then I think the Tories could do a lot better, simply because there's a lot of people who voted Tory in 2019 and 2017 but aren't in that Tory column right now but also haven't been won over by Labour. That column of voters has the potential to deliver another Tory landslide that the blue tick wankers on Twitter won't see coming just like 2015.
And while I am not excited about a Labour Government *in any way* a thorough Tory bloodletting and rebuild is the only way back I see for them.
I have no torch for Labour, so they only need to be "reasonably sensible for a short period of government" rather than actually earning my trust.