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A LAB majority NO – but PM Starmer more likely – politicalbetting.com

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  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,153
    Surely if Starmer is as bad as some PB Tories think he is, they must praying he doesn't get a FPN. Unless they think Yvette or Rachel Reeves would be worse as leader.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Results getting worse and worse for the Tories.

    I really do not see how Boris survives

    And if Starmer doesn't then who could have even imagined it (big if)
    Boris should have been binned after partygate. Then the pressure on Starmer would have been devastating.

    The Tories don't deserve the next election if they don't get rid of him now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    dixiedean said:

    Conservative results terrible in Wales. It's going to be 400+ losses.

    Lot of good work over recent years being undone there, it seems.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,463
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer due to address media shortly about Durham police announcing they’re investigating him…
    https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1522616466801106946

    He looks in the clear to me unless I'm missing something. It was a legal gathering if "reasonably necessary" for work purposes - a test I'd have thought it meets.
    Starmer's just been interviewed, and seems supremely confident that there was no breach of the rules up north. If he's right, this may turn out okay for him in contrast to the No. 10 FPNs.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MISTY said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.

    Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.

    I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.

    Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.

    https://www.woking.gov.uk/results2022

    Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.

    Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
    One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
    OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
    I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907
    Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
    Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
    Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
    This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote.
    To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet:
    UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016)
    UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion
    UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion

    People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
    Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.

    I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
    The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.

    I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
    This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
    Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    This is big - the Tories have lost control of Monmouthshire, the only council they held in Wales. Usually solid Welsh Tory seat, not Lab since 1995.

    This isn’t a good day for the Tories in Wales - and their Senedd leader has said the U.K. wide sentiment worked against them.

    https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1522621238371364864
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,157

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:



    How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.

    Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.

    I'm not holding my breath!
    I voted for Brexit but I want all of those things too. I thought that a Rishi led government might give us quite a number of them but he is now more torpedoed than a Russian frigate. And his budget was poor, to be fair. Hunt? Maybe, but I don't see how he wins.
    Hunt would be great, but I don't see it happening.

    We might have a long wait. Kemi Badenoch, eventually?
    I just want someone at least vaguely honest and vaguely competent. I don't particularly care these days even which party they come from... although I am sure that will change once their policies start hitting me personally :wink:

    But for now a smidgen of competence and a smidgen of honesty would make a refreshing change.
    Agreed Richard. I don't even care much these days which way a person voted on Brexit, I just want integrity and competence, and someone that looks vaguely Prime Ministerial, not someone who looks like he has a side hustle with Billy Smarts.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDq4rHWwHRY
    Is that the new Cabinet in training?
    More like the current one learning on the job, it sometimes seems.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Surely if Starmer is as bad as some PB Tories think he is, they must praying he doesn't get a FPN. Unless they think Yvette or Rachel Reeves would be worse as leader.

    It’s really hard to know how good he is because I can’t quite work out what their manifesto will look like.

    But I don’t think we should assume Starmer resigns should he get a fine.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MISTY said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.

    Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.

    I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.

    Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.

    https://www.woking.gov.uk/results2022

    Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.

    Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
    One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
    OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
    I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907
    Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
    Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
    Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
    This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote.
    To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet:
    UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016)
    UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion
    UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion

    People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
    Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.

    I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
    The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.

    I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
    This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
    Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
    No, you encourage them to take it personally.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    It's definitely getting worse for them. I wonder whether the 54 letters will be incoming after all.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    FF43 said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FF43 said:

    Agreed. A single 'X' on an STV ballot paper should be treated as '1'

    But it's not, for the same reason if you draw a penis in the box it is not usually counted
    X usually means wrong, after all.

    What would happen if one filled in a FPTP ballot paper with numbers? It would be rejected. Conversely, the same should happen here.
    It would be approved, see page 26 - https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/pdf_file/UKPE-doubtfuls-booklet.pdf
    But in example you cite, appears the instructions on the ballot said "Vote for ONLY ONE CANDIDATE by putting a cross X in the box next to your choice"

    Seems that this was NOT part of instructions for case described by ScottxP?
    See this link, page 9: https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Doubtful_ballot_paper_booklet.pdf
    That seems pretty clear, that "X" for just one ballot choice is that candidate, as per – Rule 44(2)(b) whatever THAT says exactly.\

    EDIT - In Scotland anyway.
    Rule 44

    (2)A ballot paper on which the vote is marked—

    (a)elsewhere than in the proper place;
    (b)otherwise than by means of a figure indicating a first or subsequent preference; or
    (c)by more than one mark,
    shall not for such reason be deemed to be void by reason only of indicating a preference by the use of words (or any other mark) instead of figures, if in the opinion of the returning officer the word or mark clearly indicates a preference or preferences, and the way the paper is marked does not itself identify the voter and it is not shown that such voter can be identified by it.
    Was the ballot paper that sparked this very interesting discussion cast in Scotland?
    Yes. Scotland is a paradise for students of voting systems. We have FPTP, modified de Hondt, STV (with AV for byelections). We also used to have pure Party List when we were in the EU.
    Is it possible, or likely, that the case of the disallowed X will be appealed and adjudicated in court?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_xP said:

    The Conservatives have lost so far 404 councillors. That's off the Daily Mail disaster-o-meter. https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1522620120312471554/photo/1

    Down 300 in England, the area covered by the disaster-o-meter.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,157
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MISTY said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.

    Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.

    I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.

    Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.

    https://www.woking.gov.uk/results2022

    Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.

    Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
    One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
    OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
    I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907
    Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
    Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
    Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
    This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote.
    To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet:
    UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016)
    UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion
    UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion

    People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
    Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.

    I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
    The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.

    I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
    This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
    Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
    I agree; the way that they were harassed and conned into leaving the UK on grounds that turneds out to be completely spurious. I saw that bullying from the Home Office happen with elderly neighbours who had been living in the UK for half a century. If HMG had put as much energy into sorting out import procedures ...
  • MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
    If you don't want to do analysis and just stuck with this line then that's fine.

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1522621649983614981

    As we have all said 1,000,000 times now, "Labour doing as well in the red wall as when they held the red wall" is not bad news for the party.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Surely if Starmer is as bad as some PB Tories think he is, they must praying he doesn't get a FPN. Unless they think Yvette or Rachel Reeves would be worse as leader.

    Reeves is in the room. The whole shadow cabinets there.
  • Starmer isn't going to get a fine.

    This investigation will go nowhere, there is no case to answer. No rules were broken as is clearly obvious.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,304
    mwadams said:

    DavidL said:



    How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.

    Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.

    I'm not holding my breath!
    As another former Tory (council candidate & voter) I can't imagine what they can do to demonstrate that they can be trusted. They have a decade or so of just being "wrong" (IMHO) economically, socially, morally etc. Johnson is a symptom not a cause.

    And how long should Labour have to wait, to be trusted, after they actually elected a traitorous, IRA-supporting, Hamas-hugging, anti-Semitic, Putin-forgiving communist as LEADER? 30 years? More? Corbyn only resigned at the end of 2019. Two and a half years ago

    People forgive and forget pretty quick. Once Boris goes, if he goes, the cavalcade of disapproval will move on

    Only Tony Blair seems to receive perpetual condemnation, for all eternity. A peculiar thing
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Hope this is NOT considered doxing:

    Elmbridge Borough District Council Hersham Village - results
    Election Candidate Party Votes % Outcome
    CHANDLER Chester Robert Liberal Democrat 1122 45.1% Elected
    O'REILLY John Conservative 1102 44.3% Not elected
    HAINES Kelly Suzanne Labour 262 10.5% Not elected

    Personally have mixed emotions!

    Clear our JohnO fought the good fight, in true Irish style. And that what bested him was not HIS sins & errors.

    We don't know that was the reason the vote swung yellow, just that was his constituents decided.
    Are you implying, that the good (and bad) electors of Elmbridge got wind that JohnO was consorting with a pack of virtual hooligans on an extremely dodgy website devoted to high-stakes gambling, low-tech dildo manufacturing, alternative-vote propaganda, and other deviant activity?
    No, just that there is more rotten in the Tory party than just the leadership. Changing the leader is not the only thing required to detox the Nasty Party.
    True enough. Just sorta doubt JohnO's personal toxicity level was determinative.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
    If you don't want to do analysis and just stuck with this line then that's fine.

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1522621649983614981

    As we have all said 1,000,000 times now, "Labour doing as well in the red wall as when they held the red wall" is not bad news for the party.
    Once again, a local election isn't comparable to a GE. In 2018 Labour "held" all of those at a local election and then got battered at a GE. In loads of those seats they were also close to losing on 2017. The dynamics of a GE are completely different to a LE.

    Labour needs to be doing significantly better than their 2018 performance to be on course to win, unless you forgot they haven't actually fucking won an election since 2005.
  • This is no seismic Labour victory. But with Labour's best result in 10 years and attrition on both flanks, some Conservatives are in denial about the problem they face - and risk sleepwalking into electoral defeat come 2024.

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1522575404648775680
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    kle4 said:


    dixiedean said:

    Conservative results terrible in Wales. It's going to be 400+ losses.

    Lot of good work over recent years being undone there, it seems.
    I was wrong thinking, because Wales been so strongly Brexit Labour would struggle to do this.. I wonder if the children getting the vote cancelled out Tory Brexit ace card? Nits straight forward Tory to Labour switching.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
    If you don't want to do analysis and just stuck with this line then that's fine.

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1522621649983614981

    As we have all said 1,000,000 times now, "Labour doing as well in the red wall as when they held the red wall" is not bad news for the party.
    Once again, a local election isn't comparable to a GE. In 2018 Labour "held" all of those at a local election and then got battered at a GE. In loads of those seats they were also close to losing on 2017. The dynamics of a GE are completely different to a LE.

    Labour needs to be doing significantly better than their 2018 performance to be on course to win, unless you forgot they haven't actually fucking won an election since 2005.
    I didn't realise you knew more than Opinium or Redfield Wilton. Okay mate you do you.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
    Where's this "no gains" coming from?
    It's over 100. Which was my par score coming in.
    The rest of it may be right. But a Lib Dem comeback is a necessary, but not sufficient condition of NOM. That is certainly happening.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    Pro_Rata said:

    So, a third place with 8.6% for @david_herdson:

    Wakefield Rural
    Name Party Votes %
    BRYAN, Jordan Phillip Labour Party 1838 36.8
    DAVIES, Lien Kerry Freedom Alliance. The Real Alternative 69 1.4
    HARVEY, Samantha (Elected) The Conservative Party Candidate 2347 47.0
    HERDSON, David John Rowntree Yorkshire Party 428 8.6
    SADLER, Karen Green Party 314 6.3
    Majority 509 10.2
    Spoiled Votes 8
    % turnout 36.4
    Total Votes 4,996

    Wakefield Constituency Overall (change from LE 21 in brackets)

    Lab: 50.6 (+8.6)
    Con 33.6 (-13.4)
    YP 5.8 (+4.7)
    Green 5.1 (-2.0)
    LD 3.5 (+2.4)
    Others 1.5 (NC)

    The mind concentrating effect of a by- election is some of the massive swing here, but it is also down to a large swing in Wakefield E, which went from a Con win to Lab 70% because of which candidates were from the community.

    Again, gives hope for the mind concentrating effect of a GE that the late swing might be in Labour's favour.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    Results getting worse and worse for the Tories.

    Pointed that out a couple of hours ago. The headlines really need a rewrite. A simply stunning result by the Lib Dems who are currently +176 in England alone. The yellow peril is back in the game.
    Lab excluding London now back in net loss territory as well
    Scotland and Wales don't count?
    They never have, but at least the Scots knew that....
  • And the picture of "Red Wall still lost" is wrong. Labour have won back Wakefield.

    The Red Wall has not returned at once - but it has swung back.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    Taz said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO, some good news! Have just contacted Marjorie Taylor Greene's congressional office, and Tucker Carlson's booking agent, alerting them to your situation.

    They are flying out immediately to assist you in overturning this obviously rigged result!

    Make Hersham Great Again - I rather like that.
    Hersham boys, hersham boys, laced up boots and corduroys.
    Open toed sandals and corduroys
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    edited May 2022

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MISTY said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.

    Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.

    I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.

    Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.

    https://www.woking.gov.uk/results2022

    Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.

    Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
    One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
    OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
    I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907
    Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
    Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
    Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
    This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote.
    To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet:
    UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016)
    UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion
    UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion

    People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
    Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.

    I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
    The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.

    I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
    This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
    Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
    No, you encourage them to take it personally.
    It was personal, and that made it personal for me too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    DavidL said:



    How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.

    Can't speak for anyone else, but in my case it's absolutely a necessary step, but as you imply, not enough on its own. They also need to get back to being the party of business and economic sanity, of realism, of honesty and integrity, and start working to undo some of the damage they've done with our main trading partner.

    I'm not holding my breath!
    As another former Tory (council candidate & voter) I can't imagine what they can do to demonstrate that they can be trusted. They have a decade or so of just being "wrong" (IMHO) economically, socially, morally etc. Johnson is a symptom not a cause.

    And how long should Labour have to wait, to be trusted, after they actually elected a traitorous, IRA-supporting, Hamas-hugging, anti-Semitic, Putin-forgiving communist as LEADER? 30 years? More? Corbyn only resigned at the end of 2019. Two and a half years ago

    People forgive and forget pretty quick. Once Boris goes, if he goes, the cavalcade of disapproval will move on

    Only Tony Blair seems to receive perpetual condemnation, for all eternity. A peculiar thing
    On the other hand people only just seem up to forgiving the LDs for the coalition and that was 7 years ago.
  • So right now we have:

    Tories: -347 councillors
    -10 Councils

    Labour: +99 councillors
    +8 Councils

    Lib: +170
    +2 Councils

    Green: +63 councillors

    But yeah, the tories have done 'relatively well' in losing 1/5 seats they were defending.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,304
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MISTY said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.

    Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.

    I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.

    Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.

    https://www.woking.gov.uk/results2022

    Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.

    Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
    One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
    OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
    I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907
    Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
    Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
    Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
    This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote.
    To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet:
    UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016)
    UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion
    UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion

    People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
    Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.

    I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
    The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.

    I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
    This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
    Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
    Factually wrong, as is often the case with you. Polls at the time, and afterwards, had sovereignty as the major driver for a Leave vote.

    Lord Ashcroft did the biggest poll of all. 12,000 people


    “Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”


    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/02/how-the-uk-voted-on-brexit-and-why-a-refresher/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    So right now we have:

    Tories: -347 councillors
    -10 Councils

    Labour: +99 councillors
    +8 Councils

    Lib: +170
    +2 Councils

    Green: +63 councillors

    But yeah, the tories have done 'relatively well' in losing 1/5 seats they were defending.

    Did someone actually say the tories have done 'relatively well'?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited May 2022
    Well it’s happened, the Tories down 300 in England alone.

    I’m sure the experts here have it 165 based on opinion polls, with the possibility the Tory’s can do better than that?

    image
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,093
    dixiedean said:

    Gosport went LD.
    Quite a surprise there.

    Yes and no.
    It was all-out on new boundaries, so anything can happen.

    And the Lib Dems did win on seats on the day as recently as 2018, albeit in a fairly flukey way.

    And Gosport Libs' head honcho is still very good at what he does.

    But yes... The Conservatives had a shocker there.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Carnyx said:

    Has Sir Keir resigned yet? :lol:

    Who cares?
    We've gone about three hours without the PB Thinkcrime Police demanding his execution for something for which they praise Mr Johnson. Quite a pleasant change.
    Boris is one of theirs, a "good egg", been to Eton old boy, won them the election, etc etc. Party before country. Johnson could eat babies on TV and they would still excuse him.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
    If you don't want to do analysis and just stuck with this line then that's fine.

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1522621649983614981

    As we have all said 1,000,000 times now, "Labour doing as well in the red wall as when they held the red wall" is not bad news for the party.
    Once again, a local election isn't comparable to a GE. In 2018 Labour "held" all of those at a local election and then got battered at a GE. In loads of those seats they were also close to losing on 2017. The dynamics of a GE are completely different to a LE.

    Labour needs to be doing significantly better than their 2018 performance to be on course to win, unless you forgot they haven't actually fucking won an election since 2005.
    I didn't realise you knew more than Opinium or Redfield Wilton. Okay mate you do you.
    I've successfully made a living from being better informed than the "experts". In fact a significant number of PBers are in the same category, it's why there's such a random collection of knowledge and insight here that you don't get elsewhere.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

    Wait, are you assuming the election will be free and fair? :)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    dixiedean said:

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.
    Where's this "no gains" coming from?
    It's over 100. Which was my par score coming in.
    The rest of it may be right. But a Lib Dem comeback is a necessary, but not sufficient condition of NOM. That is certainly happening.
    Regaining the 2018 position is a major turnaround for Labour.

    It is a rather plodding, unspectacular, under the radar win, much like Starmer himself.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Labour now has a TEN point lead over the Tories on the economy. https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1522516583909933056
  • Results from all 32 Scottish councils now in

    SNP: 453 [+62]
    Labour: 282 [+40]
    Tories: 214 [-44]
    Independent: 152 [-80]
    Lib Dems: 87 [+20]
    *via PA*

    So Labour leapfrogs Tories into 2nd place

    Scottish Labour is now the defender of the Union, another Tory campaign point gone
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,243
    Taz said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO, some good news! Have just contacted Marjorie Taylor Greene's congressional office, and Tucker Carlson's booking agent, alerting them to your situation.

    They are flying out immediately to assist you in overturning this obviously rigged result!

    Make Hersham Great Again - I rather like that.
    Hersham boys, hersham boys, laced up boots and corduroys.
    That's what many lesbians wear in my hood!
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    knowing how much the Tories love the story of this morning rather than the current reality - may I draw people's attention to NI where currently Sinn Fein have 15 seats and the DUP a total of 2.
  • dixiedean said:

    And the picture of "Red Wall still lost" is wrong. Labour have won back Wakefield.

    The Red Wall has not returned at once - but it has swung back.

    The Red Wall doesn't exist as a homogeneous unit. I never tire of saying this. Or of having to it seems
    I was agreeing with you dixie.

    Hope you are keeping well friend
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Biggest loser of these elections?
    Not Labour, they're heading gradually towards government, maybe.
    Not the Conservatives. They're in the gutter with a torn shirt but still alive.

    Alba. That party isn't going to exist soon.

    They came, they saw, they went into the wrong bathroom and got dunked head-first in the toilet bowl.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

    The other thing to note, going into the last General Election it was Tories +UKIP making something like nearly 60% before Tories (Cummings) done that truly brilliant thing of corralling the UKIP to the Tories, like a cowboy stealing someone else’s heard.

    Since that moment that huge % has basically halved. Quite a fight on their hands to fight back in the next two years?

    It’s one way of looking at it?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

    1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,861

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer due to address media shortly about Durham police announcing they’re investigating him…
    https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1522616466801106946

    He looks in the clear to me unless I'm missing something. It was a legal gathering if "reasonably necessary" for work purposes - a test I'd have thought it meets.
    Starmer's just been interviewed, and seems supremely confident that there was no breach of the rules up north. If he's right, this may turn out okay for him in contrast to the No. 10 FPNs.
    Yep, I think so. With more FPNs (and Grey) to come for BoJo. Plus these results getting worse for the Cons. And yet - if we're totally honest - also a teeny bit disappointing for Labour in the circumstances. Just a very interesting situation, basically, with a GE 2 years away.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    dixiedean said:

    Gosport went LD.
    Quite a surprise there.

    Astonishing for anyone who knows Gosport.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Looks like the Welsh have realised that the Tories are now an English nationalist party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

    1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
    Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    Mediocre for labour, A mixed bag for the Tories but pretty bad in their heartlands, a good result for the Lib Dems. The greens gained a handful.

    Overall the winners last night are the Lib Dems.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    edited May 2022

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer due to address media shortly about Durham police announcing they’re investigating him…
    https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1522616466801106946

    He looks in the clear to me unless I'm missing something. It was a legal gathering if "reasonably necessary" for work purposes - a test I'd have thought it meets.
    Starmer's just been interviewed, and seems supremely confident that there was no breach of the rules up north. If he's right, this may turn out okay for him in contrast to the No. 10 FPNs.
    Now that Durham have reopened the investigation into Starmer, will they reopen the one into Cummings who has after all admitted he repeatedly lied about the reasons he went north? (Admittedly, only while telling a pack of different transparent lies that a fairly bright three year old wouldn't bother with.)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    This is no seismic Labour victory.

    If even CHB states it's not a seismic victory then Lab are doomed! :D
  • Once again HYUFD the only Tory it seems not saying how fantastic the results have been for them
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    edited May 2022
    eek said:

    knowing how much the Tories love the story of this morning rather than the current reality - may I draw people's attention to NI where currently Sinn Fein have 15 seats and the DUP a total of 2.

    SF holding their FP vote share too. With only one constituency to come. Something of a surprise that.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Results from all 32 Scottish councils now in

    SNP: 453 [+62]
    Labour: 282 [+40]
    Tories: 214 [-44]
    Independent: 152 [-80]
    Lib Dems: 87 [+20]
    *via PA*

    So Labour leapfrogs Tories into 2nd place

    Scottish Labour is now the defender of the Union, another Tory campaign point gone

    That's way better for SNP than I expected. I thought their range was somewhere between static and a quietly surprising reverse. As in, I wouldn't have been shocked with -30. Those unionist transfers must have completely evaporated.

    I'm calling it. Indy/union is no longer the defining divide in Scotland. It's back to Tory/not.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    Taz said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO, some good news! Have just contacted Marjorie Taylor Greene's congressional office, and Tucker Carlson's booking agent, alerting them to your situation.

    They are flying out immediately to assist you in overturning this obviously rigged result!

    Make Hersham Great Again - I rather like that.
    Hersham boys, hersham boys, laced up boots and corduroys.
    Open toed sandals and corduroys
    Cracking 👍
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

    The other thing to note, going into the last General Election it was Tories +UKIP making something like nearly 60% before Tories (Cummings) done that truly brilliant thing of corralling the UKIP to the Tories, like a cowboy stealing someone else’s heard.

    Since that moment that huge % has basically halved. Quite a fight on their hands to fight back in the next two years?

    It’s one way of looking at it?
    The combined Tory + UKIP/BXP share was never near 60%!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    Taz said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO, some good news! Have just contacted Marjorie Taylor Greene's congressional office, and Tucker Carlson's booking agent, alerting them to your situation.

    They are flying out immediately to assist you in overturning this obviously rigged result!

    Make Hersham Great Again - I rather like that.
    Hersham boys, hersham boys, laced up boots and corduroys.
    That's what many lesbians wear in my hood!
    The quote is from Sham 69, https://youtu.be/bzHFXzum95w
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Taz said:

    Mediocre for labour, A mixed bag for the Tories but pretty bad in their heartlands, a good result for the Lib Dems. The greens gained a handful.

    Overall the winners last night are the Lib Dems.

    Fair summary. It does look as though the Lib-Dems have been forgiven for the coalition and are now back in the game.

    Of course the Lib-Dem success will melt away like June snow in the general election...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

    1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.

    The LibDems are going to do a lot better than they did in 2015, 2017 and 2019. Labour will do better than it did in 2019. The Tories could well win most seats, but I think a majority is tough with Johnson in charge. He is actively disliked by too many voters in a way that neither Major nor Cameron were. It's visceral with him. And Johnson is going nowhere.



  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

    1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
    Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
    The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

    1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
    Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
    The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
    The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2022
    Lutfur Rahman has won Tower Hamlets.

    54.9% to 45.1% in the run-off
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082
    GIN1138 said:

    Taz said:

    Mediocre for labour, A mixed bag for the Tories but pretty bad in their heartlands, a good result for the Lib Dems. The greens gained a handful.

    Overall the winners last night are the Lib Dems.

    Fair summary. It does look as though the Lib-Dems have been forgiven for the coalition and are now back in the game.

    Of course the Lib-Dem success will melt away like June snow in the general election...
    Yes, but for the Tories that is a problem. Those green and yellow votes are not turning blue in a tactical squeeze.
  • Holden highlighted an invitation for a “quiz and social in-person event” on Facebook from the City of Durham Labour Party, on the same evening that Starmer was drinking beer. Foy encouraged attendees to have a “greasy night”, which is slang for drinking

    Eh? Is that it?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    @susannareid100
    Jeremy Corbyn describes the police investigation into allegations Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer broke covid rules “very serious” and “a huge development”.


    https://twitter.com/susannareid100/status/1522622371131240448
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

    1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
    Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
    The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
    The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
    Which you originally thought the Tories would hold.

    How’s Minor County West getting on then?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    knowing how much the Tories love the story of this morning rather than the current reality - may I draw people's attention to NI where currently Sinn Fein have 15 seats and the DUP a total of 2.

    SF holding their FP vote share too. With only one constituency to come. Something of a surprise that.
    Looking round - one area of interest is Foyle where it seems Sinn Fein were right to pick 2 candidates as the 3 SDLP candidates seem to have taken bites out of each other.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Lutfur Rahman has won Tower Hamlets.

    54.9% to 45.1% in the run-off

    Something rotten in the state of Tower Hamlets.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603
    tlg86 said:

    Starmer isn’t going anywhere even if he is fined.

    He should be gone already.

    DavidL said:

    Results getting worse and worse for the Tories.

    Pointed that out a couple of hours ago. The headlines really need a rewrite. A simply stunning result by the Lib Dems who are currently +176 in England alone. The yellow peril is back in the game.
    Lab excluding London now back in net loss territory as well
    How are you Corbynites allowed to pick and choose what should and shouldn't be counted? If we discount London, Wales and Scotland Labour are doing worse than Corbyn four years ago is not how it works.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Lutfur Rahman has won Tower Hamlets.

    54.9% to 45.1% in the run-off

    Really?

    Or do you mean, 'he was declared the winner?' Not quite the same thing in his case...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    edited May 2022

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

    1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
    Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
    The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
    The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
    Which you originally thought the Tories would hold.

    How’s Minor County West getting on then?
    We have had the worst of the weather today. At least Surrey didn't have home umpires.

    But look at your lot...can't even knock over Alistair Cook.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    @susannareid100
    Jeremy Corbyn describes the police investigation into allegations Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer broke covid rules “very serious” and “a huge development”.


    https://twitter.com/susannareid100/status/1522622371131240448

    Translation: "... a huge opportunity to put me back in charge..."
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Conservatives lost Monmouthshire to NOC. Labour largest party
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    edited May 2022
    Coin toss alert!
    Labour loses again in Monmouthshire.
    Useless tossers all over the nation.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Holden highlighted an invitation for a “quiz and social in-person event” on Facebook from the City of Durham Labour Party, on the same evening that Starmer was drinking beer. Foy encouraged attendees to have a “greasy night”, which is slang for drinking

    Eh? Is that it?

    Remember, Johnson got a FPN for sitting at the cabinet desk while some colleagues working in other rooms came for a few minutes without even eating or drinking. The bar is extremely low!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    tlg86 said:

    Starmer isn’t going anywhere even if he is fined.

    He should be gone already.

    DavidL said:

    Results getting worse and worse for the Tories.

    Pointed that out a couple of hours ago. The headlines really need a rewrite. A simply stunning result by the Lib Dems who are currently +176 in England alone. The yellow peril is back in the game.
    Lab excluding London now back in net loss territory as well
    How are you Corbynites allowed to pick and choose what should and shouldn't be counted? If we discount London, Wales and Scotland Labour are doing worse than Corbyn four years ago is not how it works.
    Beware cherry pickers. Or is it cherry pickers of the world unite?

    Another way of looking at it is, is the Labour vote gain offset by losses in a way that doesn’t matter? For sure Labour have lost an unexpected number of seats to Greens and Libdems, that means they won more than they lost as well. Not all wins and losses are equal, some are bad, they hurt, some are good, good swing right place.

    For example the Labour gains in Peterborough, Bridgend, are not offset in anyway by the loss of seats in Hull, in terms of preparation for a general election.

    This is why start of evening - oh we into another one, I meant the last one - Labour spun the line don’t look at seat gains look at vote share and GE projections.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,304
    Cultural observation from the Turkish eastern Aegean

    1. the only thing rarer than face-masks in Kusadasi, Turkey, is a headscarf on a woman. About 3% wear facemasks. So that’s not a lot of headscarves (full-on niqabs or whatever are simply non-existent). This town is overwhelmingly secular. The muezzin are drowned out by the Ibizan chillaxo-funk from from all the bars. And it is Friday evening

    And yes I know this Turkish coast has always been westernized and secular, but I’ve been here a few times over the decades and it has definitely got MORE secular and westernized

    2. The average citizen here probably has a higher quality of life than the average Alabaman or Mississippian - or the average Red Waller, for that matter - taking everything into account: climate, food, architecture, landscape, health, culture

    It reminds me of a prosperous, coastal part of Catalonia or Languedoc

  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

    1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
    Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
    The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
    The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
    Owen Paterson scandal should have been enough.
  • Once again HYUFD the only Tory it seems not saying how fantastic the results have been for them

    ???

    Everyone right-leaning I've seen has said the Tories did poorly, but many have said not unexpectedly for midterms.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,093
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

    1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
    1992 had a moderately strong Lib Lab understanding of who would fight the Tories where, which the voters tacitly understood. Hence Major's 42% giving a thin majority.

    2015 was peak Lib on Lab war action.
    Whatever the opposite of tactical voting is. Hence Cameron winning on a much lower percentage.

    What do you really think 2024 will be like?

    Starmer is not a winner, sure. But unless the Conservatives properly relaunch, he may not need to be.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775


    Or is it cherry pickers of the world unite?

    Hold on a mo. As president of the cherry-pickers union, I'm here to tell you we don't just let anyone in.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

    1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
    Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
    The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
    The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
    Owen Paterson scandal should have been enough.
    The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse wouldn't persuade this lot to act.

    They're more spineless and dishonest than the board of Yorkshire County Cricket Club.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,861
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    MISTY said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Just looking at the breakdown of the Woking results and they should send a shudder through the Conservative Party. The LibDems didn't just take the council, these results are not even close.

    Heathlands, my ward, flipped 1500 LibDem votes to 1000 Conservative with another 400 Green.

    I am almost speechless. Those Surrey Conservative MPs are in big trouble. They include Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt, Kwasi Kwarteng, Chris Grayling.

    Those of you betting on Hunt to be next tory leader ... if you wait until after the election he might not even be an MP.

    https://www.woking.gov.uk/results2022

    Surrey is no longer safe Tory certainly, it is now a swing Tory v LD county.

    Most of Essex and much of the Midlands however have moved from swing areas to reasonably safe Conservative
    One of the principal reasons Boris has a large majority is that he was able to trade off the mountains of votes that they won in the south of England for a lot of votes in the midlands and the North, greatly increasing their vote efficiency. Which is an extremely cunning plan until your base becomes so hollowed out it falls over, just as Scotland did for Labour.
    OK but what policy choices, specifically, are turning off voters in Surrey?
    I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907
    Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
    Because of Brexit, it will be a cold day in Hell before I ever vote Tory again.
    Brexit is a total irrelevance, Covid and Ukraine will impact your life, Brexit is just yesterday's noise
    This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote.
    To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet:
    UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016)
    UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion
    UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion

    People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
    Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.

    I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
    The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.

    I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
    This is ridiculous. We told them we did not want to be part of an undemocratic, quasi-Federal political union. We did not tell them to “piss off”
    Immigration was the major driver of the Brexit vote, and my friends and colleagues were EU immigrants. I don't blame them for taking it personally.
    Factually wrong, as is often the case with you. Polls at the time, and afterwards, had sovereignty as the major driver for a Leave vote.

    Lord Ashcroft did the biggest poll of all. 12,000 people

    “Nearly half (49%) of leave voters said the biggest single reason for wanting to leave the EU was “the principle that decisions about the UK should be taken in the UK”. One third (33%) said the main reason was that leaving “offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders.”

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/02/how-the-uk-voted-on-brexit-and-why-a-refresher/
    "Sovereignty" is a pc way of saying "Immigration" though. It's a nice, noble sounding thing c.f. border control which sounds rather harsh and specific. Therefore the 1st concern is often a cypher for the 2nd. Plus many of the Leave respondents wouldn't understand the questions. So I'd be a bit skeptical of that poll.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Leon said:

    Cultural observation from the Turkish eastern Aegean

    1. the only thing rarer than face-masks in Kusadasi, Turkey, is a headscarf on a woman. About 3% wear facemasks. So that’s not a lot of headscarves (full-on niqabs or whatever are simply non-existent). This town is overwhelmingly secular. The muezzin are drowned out by the Ibizan chillaxo-funk from from all the bars. And it is Friday evening

    And yes I know this Turkish coast has always been westernized and secular, but I’ve been here a few times over the decades and it has definitely got MORE secular and westernized

    2. The average citizen here probably has a higher quality of life than the average Alabaman or Mississippian - or the average Red Waller, for that matter - taking everything into account: climate, food, architecture, landscape, health, culture

    It reminds me of a prosperous, coastal part of Catalonia or Languedoc

    I worked there twice but I wouldn't go overboard. Better than the Red Wall certainly
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    @susannareid100
    Jeremy Corbyn describes the police investigation into allegations Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer broke covid rules “very serious” and “a huge development”.


    https://twitter.com/susannareid100/status/1522622371131240448

    He probably means very serious... for him... Wasn't he pictured breaking lockdown rules on more than one occasion? ;)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,157
    Farooq said:

    Results from all 32 Scottish councils now in

    SNP: 453 [+62]
    Labour: 282 [+40]
    Tories: 214 [-44]
    Independent: 152 [-80]
    Lib Dems: 87 [+20]
    *via PA*

    So Labour leapfrogs Tories into 2nd place

    Scottish Labour is now the defender of the Union, another Tory campaign point gone

    That's way better for SNP than I expected. I thought their range was somewhere between static and a quietly surprising reverse. As in, I wouldn't have been shocked with -30. Those unionist transfers must have completely evaporated.

    I'm calling it. Indy/union is no longer the defining divide in Scotland. It's back to Tory/not.
    PA couldn't be arsed to include the SGs. Important part of the picture. Seems they doubled, but didn;t overtake the LDs as they did long ago in Holyrood.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102
    Am I right that the tories have so far lost over 420 seats?

    It's quite difficult to find somewhere which gives the grand total (?) but that's what it looks like
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2022
    Final tally in Scotland

    SNP 454 (+23)
    Lab 281 (+19)
    Con 215 (-61)
    Ind 152 (-16)
    LD 87 (+20)
    Green 34 (+15)
    Others 3 (-1)

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1522628799992680448?s=20&t=YE_bBAXmhvBSZZuh-AWmEw
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,157
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

    1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
    Yes but the LD vote had collapsed and Labour got only 30%. Labour is now polling significantly higher than that and the biggest gains today have been from the LDs
    The first thing the conservative mps should do on Monday is to act and elect a new leader and PM
    The only reason I disagree with you Big_G is because that's the first thing they should have done the morning after the North Shropshire by-election.
    Owen Paterson scandal should have been enough.
    The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse wouldn't persuade this lot to act.

    They're more spineless and dishonest than the board of Yorkshire County Cricket Club.
    The old board, surely ...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603
    ...
    Farooq said:

    Lutfur Rahman has won Tower Hamlets.

    54.9% to 45.1% in the run-off

    Something rotten in the state of Tower Hamlets.
    Out of a 500,000 electorate Labour got very creditable 600,000 votes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,304
    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    Cultural observation from the Turkish eastern Aegean

    1. the only thing rarer than face-masks in Kusadasi, Turkey, is a headscarf on a woman. About 3% wear facemasks. So that’s not a lot of headscarves (full-on niqabs or whatever are simply non-existent). This town is overwhelmingly secular. The muezzin are drowned out by the Ibizan chillaxo-funk from from all the bars. And it is Friday evening

    And yes I know this Turkish coast has always been westernized and secular, but I’ve been here a few times over the decades and it has definitely got MORE secular and westernized

    2. The average citizen here probably has a higher quality of life than the average Alabaman or Mississippian - or the average Red Waller, for that matter - taking everything into account: climate, food, architecture, landscape, health, culture

    It reminds me of a prosperous, coastal part of Catalonia or Languedoc

    I worked there twice but I wouldn't go overboard. Better than the Red Wall certainly
    When were you last here?

    There’s a lot of new development, I am told. Especially on the waterfront. It is REALLY well done
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    Just noticed the Tories lost 21 of 68 in North Yorkshire.
    Adds to the rural carnage.
    Lucky not many were up.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,157

    Final tally in Scotland

    SNP 454 (+23)
    Lab 281 (+19)
    Con 215 (-61)
    Ind 152 (-16)
    LD 87 (+20)
    Green 34 (+15)
    Others 3 (-1)

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1522628799992680448?s=20&t=YE_bBAXmhvBSZZuh-AWmEw

    Rather different from the PA results CHB posted a few mos ago. But the basic story is much the same.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,542
    Looking at where the likely transfers will go in the NI results it looks like game over for the DUP .

    Sinn Fein to have the largest share of the vote and most assembly members . And in Michelle O’Neil they have a very charismatic and charming First Minister .

This discussion has been closed.