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A LAB majority NO – but PM Starmer more likely – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    If the DUP got the most 1st preference votes, how come only the Alliance made the quota in Strangford (what am I missing)?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    mwadams said:

    The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?

    Seems reasonable. These things not totally clear, but nearer 500 than 200 (and it's close to that) just feels like indication of a bad day.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Rumours of another Russian warship attaining protected reef status remain unconfirmed. But in the meantime, I think we can all enjoy this little rhyme:

    Andrew Carnegie
    @ACPCarnegie
    ·
    2m
    Admiral Makarov meets Neptune
    Far out to sea
    And a celebration is heard
    Cry's of Ukrainian glee
    But Posidon yells out
    Its all Greek to me
    As Russia notes the weather
    And how rough the waves can be
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    mwadams said:

    The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?

    Down 372 now according to the BBC. I think it's much worse for the Tories than today's narratives are suggesting. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a delayed backlash, and over the weekend Tory MPs and councillors realise just how bad it is and start attributing blame.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    JohnO said:

    Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....

    Damn, bad luck. Fresh recount now!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Andy_JS said:

    It is quite bad for the Tories, but the gains have split fairly evenly between the other parties.
    I believe the -150 etc. was England only, no?
  • Starmer will not be fined and will not receive any punishment.

    Johnson had a drinks thing in the garden with wine and it was not investigated as it was work related. There is precedent there.

    The rules were clear - see BBC - and there is no evidence they were not followed.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited May 2022
    JohnO said:

    Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....

    Hard luck. Still, at least you're free now when you get that call to go the Lords! :D
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,680
    Slightly optimistic Tory on Sky describing Labour as now being revealed as "the Party of London and Wales".

    :smile:
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    tlg86 said:

    Not seen this story get much reporting:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10781699/Woman-barred-Ryanair-flight-passport-expiry-date-despite-valid-2023.html

    Someone I know fell foul of this recently. The problem is that the 10 year rule isn't 10 years from the point you were issued the passport, it's 10 years from the point it was issued minus three months.

    You can get a new passport from nine months out. Mine was issued 16 Dec 2013 and expires 16 August 2024. So I really need to get a new passport after the end of the next football season to avoid having problems in autumn 2023.

    Part of the reason I like having two passports ...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    JohnO said:

    Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....

    Sorry to hear it John, blame the buffoon in Number 10.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Do we think Tower Hamlets can manage to declare before Monday? They've been known to take their time
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    No

    I’m not sure anyone in Surrey would class Surrey Heath and Runnymede/Weybridge as less well off. Spelthorne - absolutely - but that’s a bit of an odd one due to the proximity of London/ Stanwell
    If I understand correctly, Spelthorne is not “really” Surrey.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    mwadams said:

    The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?

    That 500 number wasn't floated by CCHQ, it was Martin Baxter's prediction.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_localelectionpoll_20220503.html
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    Davey is though an Orange Book LD and also opposed Brexit
    Agree and I am in the same category as are most of the LDs I know in Surrey. In fact I think most of us feel the Tories interfere in peoples live more than we would.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,848
    edited May 2022
    kjh said:

    I never understood the logic of this behaviour. As a coward I would not hesitate to surrender if I thought I was going to be well treated and I was in a sticky situation, but if I thought I was going to be tortured or killed I wouldn't.
    I’ve seen one explanation that appears plausible, at least

    Apparently there is an enormous cohort of Russian soldiers - often senior officers, or higher NCOs - who have been horrifically brutalised by their experiences in Chechnya, Syria, etc. Sometimes they are actually Chechen. Unfortunately (for the poor women of Ukraine) they are also the “best”, toughest soldiers so they are the ones taking villages and winning the odd battle and getting access to Ukrainian civilians. Who they then proceed to rape, torture, multilate, terrorise and butcher indiscriminately, because they have grown to love doing that

    Eg in one account I read, it was these grizzled soldiers that did all the atrocities, whereas it was the young naive conscripts from Irkutsk who were ashamed and horrified at these crimes, and helped Ukrainians to escape the torture chambers

    It is the officer class which has become inhuman
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    JohnO said:

    Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....

    Sorry to hear that. Consolation peerage due soon?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,191
    kle4 said:

    Do we think Tower Hamlets can manage to declare before Monday? They've been known to take their time

    In fairness there are a lot of boxes to fill.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,287
    JohnO said:

    Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....

    Blue wall looking rather like rubble.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    Andy_JS said:

    It is quite bad for the Tories, but the gains have split fairly evenly between the other parties.
    Yes. Which is what we would expect in "informal pact" territory (with a little extra sauce for the LDs and Greens because of the LE overperformance we talked about yesterdsy).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,680
    DavidL said:

    In fairness there are a lot of boxes to fill.
    Brown envelopes, surely?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867

    Starmer will not be fined and will not receive any punishment.

    I bet you never thought there would be an investigation until like 2hrs ago! ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    JohnO said:

    Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....

    Condolences, seems you were another Surrey Tory victim of the yellow peril
  • The numbers seem to suggest we will be seeing a Labour government soon
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786

    I believe the -150 etc. was England only, no?
    Yes - though it's already -282 in England only.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    kjh said:

    Agree and I am in the same category as are most of the LDs I know in Surrey. In fact I think most of us feel the Tories interfere in peoples live more than we would.
    Non socialist, social liberals is your category and that for most LD voters in Surrey yes
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,471

    Why has he lost if he is found not guilty?

    You are a great poster but are churning out some absolutely hysterical posts this afternoon.

    Have you been up all night?
    He did the same with the Saville slur. I don't know whether he's being sarcastic. I think he must be.

    All he needs to do is say unequivocally is that he'll resign if he gets prosecuted
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792

    Medieval levels of barbarism.

    What are these kids - and it seems to be a lot of conscripted very young kids in RU army - like in home life that this kind of depravity comes so easily?
    I think it is perhaps partly a function of command structure. Soldiery of any nation will do depraved things if they go rogue and do not think that there might be consequences, or perhaps where they have been encouraged to dehumanise themselves. It may also be a consequence of the dehumanising nature of the Russian state, where only strength is respected and humility and kindness frowned upon. It is ironic that an army that is claiming to "denazify" is actually behaving as badly or worse than real Nazis. Someone needs to pay for these crimes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    Conservatives gain Harrow from Lab
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,730

    If the DUP got the most 1st preference votes, how come only the Alliance made the quota in Strangford (what am I missing)?

    DUP fielded three candidates who attained similar first preference votes, Alliance fielded only two and the vote was quite imbalanced between them.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,373
    MaxPB said:

    John Major did it with back to basics and a soapbox, David Cameron did it with smart targeting and goading the Lib Dems to disown all of the coalition wins, Boris or whoever replaces him will do it with smart targeting and forcing Labour to eat shit on cultural issues and Brexit every day.
    OK then. I'm all ears.

    Who is this genius
    DavidL said:

    In fairness there are a lot of boxes to fill.
    Havering aren't finishing until Monday evening.

    One ward needs a recount with clear heads (fair enough), but delaying that long is taking the Mickey.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307
    kle4 said:

    Damn, bad luck. Fresh recount now!
    Fresh REVOTE now!!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113

    I think Greg Clark is pretty safe. The constituency extends into the rural area, not just T Wells town, and he's a sane Remainer.

    The Tories on Tunbridge Wells council have a chequered history, so there's also a local effect on the council side.
    Indeed, though even many of the rural Tory seats were lost to the Independent Tunbridge Wells Alliance today
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Most unexpected result of the election so far:

    SDP gain from Labour in Leeds / Middleton Park.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    DavidL said:

    I don't live there so I can't really say but if you look at the areas who have now voted Lib Dem and those who voted remain there seems to be quite a close correlation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36618907
    Those who voted to leave have stayed more with the Tories. The divisions of the referendum are still with us. The challenge of the government is to move past those issues but instead they seem to double down on them.
    Then there is Hull that has just gone Lib Dem. Big psephological changes happening in England. My simplified read:
    • Cities with universities: Labour
    • Leafy commuter places in the South: Lib Dems
    • Towns: Conservative
    The challenge for all parties is to challenge or maximise the stereotypes depending on where they are campaigning.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,964
    JohnO said:

    Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....

    But then, Mr O, you and the rest of you did have an opportunity to dump your Great Leader. You realised that he was a loser, IIRC. And yet you and the rest of them took the cowards' way out - just kicked your problem into the long grass. And now you have had to pay the price.

    Sorry on a personal level, thoigh.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,075
    edited May 2022

    Yes - though it's already -282 in England only.
    Both of you are correct. Its the blue wall meltdown wot is doing it. It’s given Thrashers forecast a thorough thrashing. I’m waiting for him to admit his surprise. This is quite some story from the afternoon session.

    For how long have they lost Remania? A Generation? Forever?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    ClippP said:

    But then, Mr O, you and the rest of you did have an opportunity to dump your Great Leader. You realised that he was a loser, IIRC. And yet you and the rest of them took the cowards' way out - just kicked your problem into the long grass. And now you have had to pay the price.

    Sorry on a personal level, thoigh.
    I think you might be overestimating JohnO's influence. The matter is currently in the hands of MPs alone.
  • Glasgow:

    SNP 37 (-2)
    Lab 36 (+5)
    Grn 10 (+3)
    Con 2 (-6)

    Broadly what I expected overall (but wondered if Labour might have edged it) but the results in individual wards surprised me a bit (particularly the Tories losing in Pollokshields). SNP holding up best and Greens performing really strongly on the Southside (apart from Hillhead) but quite a strong Labour performance in the east end of Glasgow - they won 2/3 in North East ward for example. I haven't crunched the overall popular vote but obviously the Greens did really well.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Foxy said:

    Blue wall looking rather like rubble.
    Mr JOhnson does like being filmed taking a JCB to a wall to demolish it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949

    If the DUP got the most 1st preference votes, how come only the Alliance made the quota in Strangford (what am I missing)?

    Because each has 2 candidates. The Alliance vote broke unevenly between the two. DUP didn't as much.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    mwadams said:

    The Conservatives are now down 336 councillors across England/Scotland/Wales. That's now closer to the 500 "utterly preposterous" number floated by CCHQ than the 150 estimated by the pollsters. That has to be seen as "really quite bad", surely?

    Yes, with the caveat that if they'd been seats lost to Labour that would have been a lot worse than seats lost to the Lib Dems.

    The Lib Dems will not form the next government. If the voters wanted Labour to replace the Tories in government then the Tories would have lost more council seats to Labour. So there's some justification for writing off these losses as a midterm protest vote.

    The Lib Dems have done very well. The signs of life in Scotland are particularly surprising, but heartening for them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,848
    There is a young Russian couple staying in my hotel in Kusadasi, Turkey

    They seem happily in love, I wonder if they are on their honeymoon. They are polite and well-behaved and their happiness is infectious

    And yet now I read about the atrocities in Ukraine and I look at them in the swimming pool and I briefly think “I hope you drown, you c*nts”

    Of course I should not think that. It is a horrible reaction. This couple are presumably innocent civilians. And yet the flash of real anger was there, inside me

    This terrible war is possibly going to breed hatred that will last a generation. That will be Putin’s legacy. Russia will be hated
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    edited May 2022
    DavidL said:

    This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote.
    To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet:
    UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016)
    UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion
    UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion

    People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
    Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.

    I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,075
    DavidL said:

    In fairness there are a lot of boxes to fill.
    They’ve known the result since week last Tuesday. What a tease.

    (If you are reading this Stodge, yes I’m making a joke)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Scott_xP said:

    They argued the point. And lost.
    I missed the start of this, what are you talking about?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    I missed the start of this, what are you talking about?
    Ballot papers with a single "X" rather than a "1".
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,331
    DavidL said:

    This is absolutely true but it is not how people feel about it and that determines how they vote.
    To take some obvious examples people claim we have high inflation because of Brexit but our inflation is actually lower than the EZ or the US. People claimed that we would lose hundreds of thousands of jobs but we have record employment and record vacancies. People claimed that Brexit would cause a recession but last year we had the highest growth in the G7. People continue to claim that our exports to the EU are being hammered and yet:
    UK’s good exports to the EU grew by 20% compared to the same quarter five years ago (Q2 2016)
    UK’s sales to the EU in Q2 2016: £32.1 billion
    UK’s sales to the EU five years later, in Q2 2021: £38.56 billion

    People believe what they want to believe and to hell with the facts. And they have every right to. That is democracy and there is no point in crying about it.
    Is there something special about those quarters?

    Britain left the EU on the 1st February 2020. Looks like exports since that date have fallen. Maybe nothing to do with Brexit, but surely in terms of "facts" UK's sales to the EU have in fact fallen since Brexit.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,541
    JohnO said:

    Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....

    Gosh I have mixed feelings being a LD. I wished you luck and thought you were pretty safe. And so close as well. Commiserations.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,075
    JohnO said:

    Hey ho, you can't win 'em all. Orange tornedo wreaking electoral havoc across Elmbridge and, alas, I was a hapless innocent victim (aren't we all?). 1122 to 1102....

    Sorry John 🙏🏻
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949
    FF43 said:

    Then there is Hull that has just gone Lib Dem. Big psephological changes happening in England. My simplified read:
    • Cities with universities: Labour
    • Leafy commuter places in the South: Lib Dems
    • Towns: Conservative
    The challenge for all parties is to challenge or maximise the stereotypes depending on where they are campaigning.
    The interesting new thing this time is rural not overly wealthy counties. Cumbria and Somerset were the only two up.
    They were both dire for the Tories.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295

    The numbers seem to suggest we will be seeing a Labour government soon

    Have you seen the Sky forecast based on these results? 278 conservative - 271 labour - 50 SNP - 28 lib dem - 23 other
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    From our very own Red Wall denizen:

    Aaron Bell MP @AaronBell4NUL

    With one ward still to declare, the @Conservatives have won a majority in Newcastle-under-Lyme for the first time ever, winning 25 seats so far (+7 on 2018), in the face of national predictions of a loss.

    Huge congrats to @SimonTagg on his ongoing leadership of the Council!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,163
    edited May 2022

    If the DUP got the most 1st preference votes, how come only the Alliance made the quota in Strangford (what am I missing)?

    Possibly one Alliance candidate and two DUP candidates, so DUP votes split between the two candidates, both below the quota, but hoping to get above with transfers.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited May 2022

    Glasgow:

    SNP 37 (-2)
    Lab 36 (+5)
    Grn 10 (+3)
    Con 2 (-6)

    Broadly what I expected overall (but wondered if Labour might have edged it) but the results in individual wards surprised me a bit (particularly the Tories losing in Pollokshields). SNP holding up best and Greens performing really strongly on the Southside (apart from Hillhead) but quite a strong Labour performance in the east end of Glasgow - they won 2/3 in North East ward for example. I haven't crunched the overall popular vote but obviously the Greens did really well.

    Not a great performance for Labour in Lothian so far, outwith Edinburgh, though as usual the West Lothian Question remains unanswered ...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    kamski said:

    Is there something special about those quarters?

    Britain left the EU on the 1st February 2020. Looks like exports since that date have fallen. Maybe nothing to do with Brexit, but surely in terms of "facts" UK's sales to the EU have in fact fallen since Brexit.
    The quarter before the referendum, and the same quarter after the end of the transition period.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    If the DUP got the most 1st preference votes, how come only the Alliance made the quota in Strangford (what am I missing)?

    One Alliance candidate made the quota, while a DUPer was just behind quota.

    The figures you are alluding to, are total votes cast for ALL of a party's candidates.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    Those shouldn't have been spoiled. A clear preference has been indicated by the voter.
    Agreed. A single 'X' on an STV ballot paper should be treated as '1'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,113
    Andy_JS said:

    Have you seen the Sky forecast based on these results? 278 conservative - 271 labour - 50 SNP - 28 lib dem - 23 other
    Starmer PM propped up by the LDs, even though clearly not a Labour majority government
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Both of you are correct. Its the blue wall meltdown wot is doing it. It’s given Thrashers forecast a thorough thrashing. I’m waiting for him to admit his surprise. This is quite some story from the afternoon session.

    For how long have they lost Remania? A Generation? Forever?

    On the Daily Mail framing of the elections in England before they took place, the Tories are now approaching Disaster.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1521812569442467841

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    From our very own Red Wall denizen:

    Aaron Bell MP @AaronBell4NUL

    With one ward still to declare, the @Conservatives have won a majority in Newcastle-under-Lyme for the first time ever, winning 25 seats so far (+7 on 2018), in the face of national predictions of a loss.

    Huge congrats to @SimonTagg on his ongoing leadership of the Council!

    And despite the stink!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,949

    Possibly one Alliance candidate and two DUP candidates, so DUP votes split between the two candidates, both below the quota, but going to get above with transfers.
    Sky is giving the full results on its website.
    Strangford count 1 here.

    https://election.news.sky.com/elections/northern-ireland-2022/strangford-893
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    On the Daily Mail framing of the elections in England before they took place, the Tories are now approaching Disaster.
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1521812569442467841

    Half way between disappointment and disaster, with most English councils declared.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    FF43 said:

    Agreed. A single 'X' on an STV ballot paper should be treated as '1'

    But it's not, for the same reason if you draw a penis in the box it is not usually counted
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,471
    BBC forecast projection General Election Labour beat Tories by about 40 seats. 35/30%
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,730
    I have never before seen a STV election where X is counted as spoil rather than 1. The only exceptions are in elections that require complete preferences as in Australia.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    dixiedean said:

    The interesting new thing this time is rural not overly wealthy counties. Cumbria and Somerset were the only two up.
    They were both dire for the Tories.
    I deliberately left off rural places because not sure how to slot them into the new order. Conservative or Lib Dem, clearly not Labour. Cumbria is an interesting case. Parts of it are quite post-ish industrial and deprived
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    the Tories have slumped from 1st to 5th in Edinburgh https://twitter.com/edinburghelect/status/1522595625791102977
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,373

    Both of you are correct. Its the blue wall meltdown wot is doing it. It’s given Thrashers forecast a thorough thrashing. I’m waiting for him to admit his surprise. This is quite some story from the afternoon session.

    For how long have they lost Remania? A Generation? Forever?
    And the Lib-Con battleground tends to exaggerate the seat changes, because wards tend to be smaller outside London and the Mets.

    As for when the Conservatives can think of talking to Remainia again, it depends on when the UK's relationship with the rest of Europe becomes something they can live with.

    I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Scott_xP said:

    But it's not, for the same reason if you draw a penis in the box it is not usually counted
    X usually means wrong, after all.

    What would happen if one filled in a FPTP ballot paper with numbers? It would be rejected. Conversely, the same should happen here.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108
    Seems the SNP did OK in areas not completely surrounded by water... ;)

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Carnyx said:

    X usually means wrong, after all.

    What would happen if one filled in a FPTP ballot paper with numbers? It would be rejected. Conversely, the same should happen here.
    If you put a "1" in an FPTP ballot paper would it really be rejected? It's a clear indication of preference.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,191
    kamski said:

    Is there something special about those quarters?

    Britain left the EU on the 1st February 2020. Looks like exports since that date have fallen. Maybe nothing to do with Brexit, but surely in terms of "facts" UK's sales to the EU have in fact fallen since Brexit.
    They were ones I lifted off a website which I freely accept is not exactly neutral on the matter so they may well be excessively favourable. That is not my point. My point is that people will choose the statistics that confirm their original view and discount those that don't. It is an emotional thing and it is deeply held. And it is certainly one of the reasons the Tories are being hammered in certain parts of Surrey.

    How do the Tories get these supporters, or people like @Richard_Nabavi or @TSE back? That is what the government needs to focus on. Getting rid of the liar in chief may be a necessary but probably not a sufficient step on its own.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,572

    From our very own Red Wall denizen:

    Aaron Bell MP @AaronBell4NUL

    With one ward still to declare, the @Conservatives have won a majority in Newcastle-under-Lyme for the first time ever, winning 25 seats so far (+7 on 2018), in the face of national predictions of a loss.

    Huge congrats to @SimonTagg on his ongoing leadership of the Council!

    They gained a seat in Cannock Chase as well.
  • JonathanBarnesJonathanBarnes Posts: 70
    edited May 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Not a great performance for Labour in Lothian so far, outwith Edinburgh, though as usual the West Lothian Question remains unanswered ...
    East Lothian was strong for Labour (even gaining a 2nd seat in Musselburgh despite their candidate being dropped at the last minute plus increasing their vote in Haddington on 2017 despite bombing there in 2019) but the SNP did well to beat Labour by 1 seat in Midlothian and consolidate their position in West Lothian.

    I think Fife was probably more disappointing for Labour as the SNP/LDs benefitted more from the squeeze on the Tory vote there.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    RobD said:

    Ballot papers with a single "X" rather than a "1".
    Where? Can see how that MIGHT be interpreted as "NOT this candidate". Do you have a link?

    AND was it decisive re: the result?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    RobD said:

    If you put a "1" in an FPTP ballot paper would it really be rejected? It's a clear indication of preference.

    The instructions for FPTP are not "make a clear indication of preference". They are "make an X in the box"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Carnyx said:

    X usually means wrong, after all.

    What would happen if one filled in a FPTP ballot paper with numbers? It would be rejected. Conversely, the same should happen here.
    It would be approved, see page 26 - https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/pdf_file/UKPE-doubtfuls-booklet.pdf
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Scott_xP said:

    The instructions for FPTP are not "make a clear indication of preference". They are "make an X in the box"
    It would be approved, see page 26 here https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/pdf_file/UKPE-doubtfuls-booklet.pdf
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    East Lothian was strong for Labour (even gaining a 2nd seat in Musselburgh despite their candidate being dropped at the last minute plus increasing their vote in Haddington on 2017 despite bombing there in 2019) but the SNP did well to beat Labour by 1 seat in Midlothian and consolidate their position in West Lothian.

    I think Fife was probably more disappointing for Labour as the SNP/LDs benefitted more from the squeeze on the Tory vote there.
    Ah, West Lothian in - the Natiuonal says

    "The SNP returned 15 councillors, up two on their 2017 result.

    Labour have won 12 seats, the same as they did five years ago.

    The Tories have dropped three seats, returning just four councillors, while the LibDems managed to pick up one (from nothing in 2017).

    There is still one independent on the council.

    The 33-seat council means 17 seats are needed for a majority. It is too soon to say who might be able to take control in the coming weeks, but the SNP might fancy a minority administration."
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151

    Where? Can see how that MIGHT be interpreted as "NOT this candidate". Do you have a link?

    AND was it decisive re: the result?

    It was an anecdote relayed to me by someone at the count.

    It was decisive.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,951
    RobD said:

    Half way between disappointment and disaster, with most English councils declared.
    We seem to have had a British version of the famous US blue-shift where in the late evening it all looks very Republican, and the media narratives get set. Then as the following day progresses we actually end up with a very strong Democrat result but the media has moved on by then.

    When I woke up the consensus was that the Tories were bloodied but still standing, and Labour had disappointed. Now it looks much more like a disaster for the Tories, although largely thanks to a yellow shift rather than a red one.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    RobD said:

    If you put a "1" in an FPTP ballot paper would it really be rejected? It's a clear indication of preference.
    But also the other candidates with 2 etc? Surely not.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,287

    Maybe people try and justify it and find reasons to support their beliefs. I do not. I disagreed profoundly with how the referendum was set up, the language used during the campaign, the behaviour of the Conservatives / ERG / Leavers afterwards, etc.

    I do not give a d*mn about finding reasons after the event.
    The thing that crystallised it for me was the insult to my European friends and colleagues. My countryfolk had told them to piss off, and many of them now have gone home.

    I will not be voting Conservative again, at least not until they repudiate Brexitism. I don't expect that soon.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    Those of us who favour PR are always told that 'it takes a long time to count the votes'. I see all but one of the Scots results are now to hand whereas FPTP counts in England and Wales are still lagging.
    I'll conceded, of course that NI is slower.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    RobD said:

    It would be approved, see page 26 - https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/pdf_file/UKPE-doubtfuls-booklet.pdf
    Interesting!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Scott_xP said:

    It was an anecdote relayed to me by someone at the count.

    It was decisive.
    Strange, a single "X" is acceptable even for ballot papers where you are supposed to give preferences. See page 9 here https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Doubtful_ballot_paper_booklet.pdf
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,792
    HYUFD said:

    Starmer PM propped up by the LDs, even though clearly not a Labour majority government
    Much like PM Cameron. I quite like the idea of coalition government. Keeps it nice and sensible
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,331
    RobD said:

    It would be approved, see page 26 - https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/pdf_file/UKPE-doubtfuls-booklet.pdf
    In Germany an X is the equivalent of a tick.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    Lutfur Rahman gets over 11,000 more first preference votes for Tower Hamlets mayor than Labour's John Biggs.

    But it's not quite enough to win outright. Second preferences will now be counted.

    John Biggs, Labour: 27,894
    Lutfur Rahman, Aspire: 39,533

    #LocalElections2022
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    Carnyx said:

    But also the other candidates with 2 etc? Surely not.
    Apparently so, that example had 1-5 listed.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    Scott_xP said:

    But it's not, for the same reason if you draw a penis in the box it is not usually counted
    I work on the basis you should respect people's votes and make it easy for them, as long as it's clearly expressed. Other votes use an 'X', sometimes in the same booth at the same time.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,680

    I think it is perhaps partly a function of command structure. Soldiery of any nation will do depraved things if they go rogue and do not think that there might be consequences, or perhaps where they have been encouraged to dehumanise themselves. It may also be a consequence of the dehumanising nature of the Russian state, where only strength is respected and humility and kindness frowned upon. It is ironic that an army that is claiming to "denazify" is actually behaving as badly or worse than real Nazis. Someone needs to pay for these crimes.
    I'm inclined to call it a military culture which has not significantly changed since WW2, which is still in Russia lauded as the Great Defining Victory.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,287
    Scott_xP said:

    It was an anecdote relayed to me by someone at the count.

    It was decisive.
    Depends how many of the spoiled ballots were intended for that candidate. Surely similar marks were on all candidates.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108
    Tower hamlets first preferences in, surprise winner....not!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    Carnyx said:

    X usually means wrong, after all.

    What would happen if one filled in a FPTP ballot paper with numbers? It would be rejected. Conversely, the same should happen here.
    Why? The voter's intention is clear and valid, as long as there is only one X.
This discussion has been closed.