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A LAB majority NO – but PM Starmer more likely – politicalbetting.com

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  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    NORTHERN IRELAND UPDATE:

    Kellie Armstrong (Alliance) has topped the poll in Strangford.

    Alex Easton (Ind Unionist) has topped the poll within North Down.

    Deirdre Hargey (SF) has topped the poll in Belfast South.

    More to follow.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited May 2022
    Starmer hasn't even done as well as Kinnock in 1985

    Con 32% Lab 39%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    This is a really, really poor result for Labour and a warning sign... I think it's even possible Con might win in 2023 or 2024 with another pretty big majority based on this local election performance from Labour.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507

    My wish yesterday - all of which i said was stretch, was:

    - Labour to take Westminster - DONE
    - Ukraine to degrade Black Sea fleet - DONE
    - Alliance to come second in NI - Pending?

    Haha.

    I think it's very plain the DUP will come second.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Nope

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20120116.british-unionist-party-take-seat-tories-north-lanarkshire/
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,273
    Farooq said:

    I don't know, but I do know that a lot of people think he died because of his wallpaper
    What happened? Heart attack after getting the bill from Lulu?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    What happened? Heart attack after getting the bill from Lulu?
    It was too toxic.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Heathener said:

    Suspect some of the excitable comments about vote share may be ignoring how well the LibDems have done as tactical voting takes hold.

    Labour-LibDem on 54% is a terrific anti-tory vote.

    Look at the way Surrey and Somerset are turning yellow. Wow.

    This sort of thing often happens in local elections and by-elections - much less often in General elections.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 913

    They don't seem to, you know, actually vote for them in leadership elections though.....
    Undeniably true. I just think the (self imposed) pressure to have a female leader will be overwhelming.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    Sean_F said:

    2018 was not "bloody good" for Labour. The Conservatives were ahead by 0-1%. So much commentary on local elections assumes that the governing party is never going to recover ground between mid-term and the next general election. And, they invariably do.

    Labour frequently led in local elections between 1979 - 92, and 2011-14.
    Wrong. 2018 was not bloody good at the time, but in comparison to what happened since it’s a huge stride taken getting back there.

    You keep pushing this, but you couldn’t be more wrong, I’ve got all the electionologists on my side. Join us in your own time. 😁
  • We know the answer to that one. He doesn't.

    Question is whether Stamer going would shame Conservative MPs into chucking Big Dog down the well.

    Wonder when we'll get an update from the Met.
    When this was all kicking off in January and all the speculation was about Boris going, I wonder if anyone could have predicted that this might end with both Sunak and Starmer getting fined too?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    AlistairM said:

    What looks to be the Admiral Makarov on fire as filmed by a Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2.

    The low quality can be explained by the fact that the TB2 is probably some 100km away from the ship.

    [Note: Not verified yet]

    https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1522573541698412544

    Tweet has been deleted now.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,311
    edited May 2022

    A possibility - Starmer gets an FPN. Given that Boris will nearly certainly get one... what if Starmer uses any such FPN as a way to pull down Boris with him - "I am resigning on principle. Does he have any? " etc etc?
    I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.

    Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.

    It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029

    I suggested yesterday that purdah for the police was the correct response, but a thoughtful response from ? @Eabhal ? persuaded me to change my mind.

    Durham’s announcement that it is re-opening the investigation is very troubling. If they had new evidence they should have investigated earlier. They certainly should not have said the investigation would not be re-opened.

    Maybe you should reflect on how you tried to close my comments down which seem that they were very salient
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    MaxPB said:

    A 5 point Labour lead, at this stage in the electoral cycle? It's poor. Keir is a less charismatic Ed Miliband, the Tories are heading for a 10-30 seat majority with Boris and a pretty thumping one if they dump him.
    Agree with the first (a small Con win being likely) but not the second. IMO ditching Johnson could well damage the Cons GE prospects. I think the leave voters he will keep in the Con column are more important to their FPTP seat tally than those who'll be repelled by him to abstain or vote against.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,277
    So any news on the pilsner and pasanda party?
    The shandy and shashlik shindig?
    The Carling and korma craic?
    The Beck’s and bhoona bash?
    The Moretti and masala mash up?
    The Newcastle Brown and naan knees up?
    The Fosters and phal festivities?
    (That’s more than enough now, Ed.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729

    Interesting, I am a Labour Party member and follow politics quite actively and I have never heard of her!
    Phillip Bridgetson, then ?
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    So, this is just a pretty standard mid-term then.

    SHOCKED

    Also, how has SKS shot his own foot so so badly? You think you can trust his judgement going forward?
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    So much commentary on local elections assumes that the governing party is never going to recover ground between mid-term and the next general election. And, they invariably do.

    Labour frequently led in local elections between 1979 - 92, and 2011-14.


    We can plug these results into Crosby's SWINGBACKULATOR.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:


    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20120116.british-unionist-party-take-seat-tories-north-lanarkshire/
    More “ultra-Unionist” than the Conservatives. They can’t even attract the total loonies any more.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    MaxPB said:

    The dynamics of a GE will be completely different to a mid term which is generally a good time to give the national party a good kick up the arse. Today's results show that Labour are very, very far away from sealing the deal with the electorate and that they are also very angry with the Tory party. Tory voters simply didn't come out to play in a mid term when little is at stake and the anger is very high. In 2024 a lot will be at stake culturally (Brexit, keeping boys out of dresses and men out of women's changing rooms) and Labour will struggle to differentiate on the economy and are going to be playing a hugely losing hand on the culture war. If they say "women don't have cocks" they lose ultra progressive voters to the Greens, if they say "women do have cocks" a huge number of their core feminist votes stay home.

    All of this is going to be set to 11 for months and every time Keir makes a media appearance questions of this kind will be asked and he won't have an answer that doesn't piss of some significant part of the Labour coalition.

    I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Maybe you should reflect on how you tried to close my comments down which seem that they were very salient
    No, because no actual evidence was adduced by the Mail, or your breathless updates.

    I would suggest you wait for further development in the story.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507

    Wrong. 2018 was not bloody good at the time, but in comparison to what happened since it’s a huge stride taken getting back there.

    You keep pushing this, but you couldn’t be more wrong, I’ve got all the electionologists on my side. Join us in your own time. 😁
    GIN1138 said:

    Starmer hasn't even done as well as Kinnock in 1985

    Con 32% Lab 39%

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    This is a really, really poor result for Labour and a warning sign... I think it's even possible Con might win in 2023 or 2024 with another pretty big majority based on this local election performance from Labour.

    According to some of the argument being advanced today, that meant Kinnock won the 1987 election,
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    I have quickly concluded Starmer needs to go now. He can say he is honourable and Johnson is not, but Johnson stays irrespective of Starmer's fate. Johnson's future FPNs are now null and void politically.

    Starmer tried to play with a straight bat, but he has been caught on the boundary just as he thought the ball was sailing into the pavilion for a six.

    It is over for him, and I have largely been on his side.
    No you have not been on his side. You thought that Johnson's Jimmy Savile comments were 'absolutely hilarious'.

    And can I politely suggest to you and everybody that you wait and see. You seem to have decided to become Judge, Jury and Executioner.

    Last time I checked, an investigation did not = guilt.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    So much commentary on local elections assumes that the governing party is never going to recover ground between mid-term and the next general election. And, they invariably do.

    Labour frequently led in local elections between 1979 - 92, and 2011-14.


    We can plug these results into Crosby's SWINGBACKULATOR.

    Crosby was wrong on lots of things, but he was the swingback king. A lesson worth learning.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,214
    Heathener said:

    No you have not been on his side. You thought that Johnson's Jimmy Savile comments were 'absolutely hilarious'.

    And can I politely suggest to you and everybody that you wait and see. You seem to have decided to become Judge, Jury and Executioner.

    Last time I checked, an investigation did not = guilt.
    It's "Judge, Judy and Executioner".

    For The Greater Good.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,311

    If Starmer is exonerated though, it would have been better for Tories and mail not to have had the investigation.

    It’s like in Abbey Quest - Nun Run 2 when you have the Malignant Fetish Weapon in your bag, but use up all its Karma 😕.

    I’m drifting in and out of consciousness not sure my posts making any sense here. Should I stop?
    I think you are wrong. Irrespective of any FPNs, Starmer is now seen as worse than Johnson. Johnson has consistently stated breaking rules is fine, Starmer has said it is not. He has to go.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,367

    They are not contiguous as residential spaces. The No. 10 flat and the No. 11 flat are separate to each other and separate to the office spaces.
    I think you're being a little silly now. They are next door to each other, and involved in the same business. What BJ and the others did was wrong (minorly, IMO), but I can't see how that excuses the stupid mess SKS and Labour had with their meeting or their reaction to it.

    Tell me who, of the attendees at the Labour do, lived within ten miles of the place?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Sean_F said:

    According to some of the argument being advanced today, that meant Kinnock won the 1987 election,
    Sorry this is the correct link for the 1985 local election

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_United_Kingdom_local_elections
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    I think you are wrong. Irrespective of any FPNs, Starmer is now seen as worse than Johnson. Johnson has consistently stated breaking rules is fine, Starmer has said it is not. He has to go.
    You really need to take a break
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Alliance leading NI score table!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729
    Selebian said:

    If he'd voted against the rules and called them stupid, then he'd have a case.

    For me:
    - Beergate looks trivial, but let's see what's decided. If the law was broken then Starmer has to go, I think, given what he has said.
    - Cakegate also looked trivial, but Carrie should not have been there, I guess. I was surprised Johnson got a fine for that, really - I thought Carrie might.
    - The other parties (or whatever you prefer to call them) at Downing Street were far more egregious to me....
    Are the Met investigating them in chronological order, or did they pick cakegate by choice ? As it's a proved a pretty effective way of helping dilute the story.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .

    The thing is, a culture war is not actually that difficult to defend in the UK.

    Unlike the US the British electorate are largely moderate and do not have passionately angry views on abortion and race.

    Keir has played his culture hand quite badly, in my view, bordering on incompetence.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    I think you are wrong. Irrespective of any FPNs, Starmer is now seen as worse than Johnson. Johnson has consistently stated breaking rules is fine, Starmer has said it is not. He has to go.
    Mr Johnson said that?! I seem to remember hin going on at great length about how important it was to observe the rules.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .

    But Labour aren't offering anything different on the substantive issues. It's the Ed Miliband blank sheet of paper and we know how that worked out.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029

    When this was all kicking off in January and all the speculation was about Boris going, I wonder if anyone could have predicted that this might end with both Sunak and Starmer getting fined too?
    Rayner ?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Nigelb said:

    Are the Met investigating them in chronological order, or did they pick cakegate by choice ? As it's a proved a pretty effective way of helping dilute the story.
    Yes, it’s very interesting.

    Cakegate seems pretty excusable even my my Cato-esque standards, at least for the PM.
    (Not so for non working attendees like Carrie and Lulu Lytle).

    Not that I have all the info of course.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,264
    Dura_Ace said:

    He doesn’t have to go. What will happen if he doesn’t? Sod all.
    Well, if he doesn't (and he receives an FPN) I shall give him a very hard stare should I ever meet him. That's hardly sod all :wink:

    (If he does happen to become next PM, though, I'll forgive him in a heartbeat. That would be a nice betting outcome)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    With almost half Scottish councils fully declared, and tons partially declared, net gains/losses so far:

    SNP +17
    SLD +13
    SLab +11
    Grn +10
    Ind -14
    SCon -37
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,277
    Maybe Durham police read my posts yesterday about what the rules were at the time. A lot of people, including an ex-DPP, seemed confused about them at the time.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Carnyx said:

    Hmm, British Unionists have taken one of the Tories' North Lanarkshire seats. (Fortissat = Shotts etc.)

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/20120116.british-unionist-party-take-seat-tories-north-lanarkshire/

    I have spent this week in Airdrie. What a bizarre place. Desperately run down. Large numbers of very large dogs which may or may not be connected with an alarming number of drug addicts. Churches of all protestant denominations and lodge houses all over the place. The High Street was beyond grim and, on the limited evidence of my case, law and order is hanging on by a thead. Not in a rush to go back tbh.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,311
    Farooq said:

    Don't you want to wait to see whether he's innocent first?
    No. He is fatally damaged either way.

    Clear the way for Dickie DiDo Burgon!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    I think you're being a little silly now. They are next door to each other, and involved in the same business. What BJ and the others did was wrong (minorly, IMO), but I can't see how that excuses the stupid mess SKS and Labour had with their meeting or their reaction to it.

    Tell me who, of the attendees at the Labour do, lived within ten miles of the place?
    I am absolutely unconvinced that Lulu Lytle has any business at the cake unveiling despite Number 11 being very close.

    You are typically weird about this.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,797
    MaxPB said:

    But Labour aren't offering anything different on the substantive issues. It's the Ed Miliband blank sheet of paper and we know how that worked out.
    So predictions for Starmers equivalent of the Edstone? ;)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    I think you are wrong. Irrespective of any FPNs, Starmer is now seen as worse than Johnson. Johnson has consistently stated breaking rules is fine, Starmer has said it is not. He has to go.
    Eh?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,264

    I said at the time of Barnard Castle that it was an opportunity for Keir Starmer to demonstrate some leadership by concentrating on encouraging people to continue to follow the rules, rather than to complain that Cummings breaking them would encourage others to do likewise.

    Ultimately he has flunked the test of leadership.

    It's possible, of course, that Starmer has been proven right. No transgressions by Starmer (that we know of) pre-Barnard Castle. Possible transgression afterwards :wink:
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,759

    I agree that the Tories have absolutely nothing to offer but culture war - that's been clear for a while. I am less inclined to agree that enough voters will buy that if living standards and public services have continued to decline, and Boris Johnson is still in charge. .

    It works for the Republicans.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    Sean_F said:

    According to some of the argument being advanced today, that meant Kinnock won the 1987 election,
    We are going to have a spat! 😃 as you attempt to spin and twist the psephological truth.

    Brilliant. That’s woken me up into action.

    image
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Farooq said:

    where are you looking?
    https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2022/northern-ireland/results
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    Borders count complete:

    Con 14 -1
    SNP 9 nc
    Ind 7 -1
    LD 3 +1
    Grn 1 +1

    18 needed for a majority, so looks like the Independents are the kingmakers.

    From what I have read that considerably understates the collapse in the Tory vote. Amongst its many other faults the STV system really doesn't seem that responsive to even quite large swings.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,367
    Heathener said:

    No you have not been on his side. You thought that Johnson's Jimmy Savile comments were 'absolutely hilarious'.

    And can I politely suggest to you and everybody that you wait and see. You seem to have decided to become Judge, Jury and Executioner.

    Last time I checked, an investigation did not = guilt.
    An investigation certainly does not equal guilt.

    But as others have pointed out, that wasn't SKS's position when Johnson was being investigated.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,311

    I can confirm I have hacked Petes account!!
    You have when I demand Richard Burgon and Rebecca Long Bailey take over...

    It's over! He is a good man, but with no political killer instinct. A mere pup trying to run amongst the big dogs.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    DavidL said:

    From what I have read that considerably understates the collapse in the Tory vote. Amongst its many other faults the STV system really doesn't seem that responsive to even quite large swings.
    I saw this morning that you have familiarity with the Kirriemuir ward.

    My ancestors, the Reas, hail from that neck of the woods.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    I saw this morning that you have familiarity with the Kirriemuir ward.

    My ancestors, the Reas, hail from that neck of the woods.
    Barry country? And Potter?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029

    No, because no actual evidence was adduced by the Mail, or your breathless updates.

    I would suggest you wait for further development in the story.
    My commentary has always been the same standards should apply to Durham and the MET and the new evidence considered

    I have not said Starmer and Rayner are guilty and may well be absolved

    However, you attempted to close down the debate and you were wrong to do so
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,367

    I am absolutely unconvinced that Lulu Lytle has any business at the cake unveiling despite Number 11 being very close.

    You are typically weird about this.
    "typically weird" ?

    Gee, thanks.

    I await the list of people who were at the Labour do, so you can proclaim who should and should not have been there.

    And BTW, I said what BJ and co. did was wrong.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    DavidL said:

    I have spent this week in Airdrie. What a bizarre place. Desperately run down. Large numbers of very large dogs which may or may not be connected with an alarming number of drug addicts. Churches of all protestant denominations and lodge houses all over the place. The High Street was beyond grim and, on the limited evidence of my case, law and order is hanging on by a thead. Not in a rush to go back tbh.
    Interesting report from the Unionist frontline. The Orange rather than Sioux kind of lodge, I take it?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Just watching election night 2015, what a glorious night that was. Months of campaigning and watching the Labour and Lib Dems self destruct without realising it all coming to fruition. Don't think I'll ever experience anything like it again.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,683
    DavidL said:

    Labour 35
    Tories 30
    LD 19
    Others 16

    Good result for Labour. Horrific for the Tories.
    Much, much better for Lib Dems.
    But look at those others. Not going to be like that in a GE.

    I am looking forward to the Residents' Association holding the balance of power in a hung parliament!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    Strangford was 36% DUP, 15% UUP, 13% TUV, 24% Alliance, 6% SDLP, 4% SF, Green 2%.

    Which probably makes DUP 2, UUP 1, Alliance 2.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    An investigation certainly does not equal guilt.

    But as others have pointed out, that wasn't SKS's position when Johnson was being investigated.
    This is true, but if - BIG IF - Keir is exonerated, you can put this down to political rhetoric. Nobody will notice or care.

    Anyway, by the time Met decided to investigate it was already obvious Boris was guilty as hell.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,264
    Nigelb said:

    Phillip Bridgetson, then ?
    One of the Bridgertons, maybe? I hear they're quite popular...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729

    Tweet has been deleted now.
    Looked like a video game to me, FWIW.
    And the change of the angel of view was way to fast to have been from 100km away - the camera would have had to be on an aerial platform quite close to the vessel.

    Doesn't mean the ship hasn't been hit, but the footage was fake.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited May 2022

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2022/northern-ireland/results
    [deleted - am misreading]
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    I suggested yesterday that purdah for the police was the correct response, but a thoughtful response from ? @Eabhal ? persuaded me to change my mind.

    Durham’s announcement that it is re-opening the investigation is very troubling. If they had new evidence they should have investigated earlier. They certainly should not have said the investigation would not be re-opened.

    Outrageous. Change your mind? Listen to reasoned argument? Where will it end?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Labour lose Hastings to NOC
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    It works for the Republicans.

    The way the US voting system works - and who controls it - is what works for the Republicans.

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,264
    Nigelb said:

    Are the Met investigating them in chronological order, or did they pick cakegate by choice ? As it's a proved a pretty effective way of helping dilute the story.
    Alphabetically. Cakegate comes before Partygate or Drinksgate (or is that Gardengate?)

    That's why everyone's pissed that Durham have been lagging on Beergate. If it was only Currygate it would be ok for it to come after Cakegate.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    Yes, the big story is tactical voting returning in a BIG way. Nightmare scenario for the Tories.
    Anti-Tory tactical voting IS the big hope for the GE. If it takes hold it should be enough to kick them out. My confidence has dimmed a notch however. I was hoping to see a stronger Labour performance yesterday in those parts of the country we are busting a gut to "reconnect" with.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Barry country? And Potter?
    No idea.

    I’ve been to Dundee a couple of times, and on occasion walked down Strawberry Bank to try to find an ancestor’s house.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,356

    I am looking forward to the Residents' Association holding the balance of power in a hung parliament!
    Good news: No potholes anywhere.
    Bad news: No new houses anywhere. Build them somewhere else, like France, instead.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Farooq said:

    where are you looking?
    https://www.rte.ie/news/assembly-election-2022/results/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Carnyx said:

    SF is only 4% on FP. Or am I misreading?
    Of results in so far.

    Presently biggest gainers Alliance and TUV not SF
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    MaxPB said:

    Just watching election night 2015, what a glorious night that was. Months of campaigning and watching the Labour and Lib Dems self destruct without realising it all coming to fruition. Don't think I'll ever experience anything like it again.

    Hopefully not ;-)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Sean_F said:

    I think it's very plain the DUP will come second.
    1 result so far. For the Alliance. NI has been stuck in a death knell of religious bigotry for over a century. It would be beyond wonderful if the people there said enough.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,311
    Heathener said:

    No you have not been on his side. You thought that Johnson's Jimmy Savile comments were 'absolutely hilarious'.

    And can I politely suggest to you and everybody that you wait and see. You seem to have decided to become Judge, Jury and Executioner.

    Last time I checked, an investigation did not = guilt.
    The optics look horrendous.

    I was wrong about Johnson's Starmer slur and I retracted at the time.

    Starmer bet his shirt on Partygate. He was winning, now he has lost. FPN or no FPN.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited May 2022

    No idea.

    I’ve been to Dundee a couple of times, and on occasion walked down Strawberry Bank to try to find an ancestor’s house.
    Have a look at nls.uk if you haven't - the online maps and local directories sections are superb.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    HYUFD said:

    Labour lose Hastings to NOC

    That was careless of them. Three Green gains, all from Labour.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,729
    Dura_Ace said:

    He doesn’t have to go. What will happen if he doesn’t? Sod all.
    You're assuming Starmer possesses the brass neck to brazen it out.
    It would be embarrassing to watch him self immolate.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    MaxPB said:

    But Labour aren't offering anything different on the substantive issues. It's the Ed Miliband blank sheet of paper and we know how that worked out.

    As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Sky news general election projection based on this year's local elections voteshare.

    Hung Parliament

    Conservatives 278
    Labour 271
    SNP 50
    LDs 28
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    Sky GE 24 projection

    278 conservative - 271 labour - 50 SNP - 28 lib dem - 23 other
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Carnyx said:

    Interesting report from the Unionist frontline. The Orange rather than Sioux kind of lodge, I take it?
    Yes, replete with pictures of William and commemorating the Battle of the Boyne. It reminded me of my favourite scene in Trainspotting 2.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    edited May 2022

    As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.

    The culture war campaign is the "stand in the polling booth and have a really long think about what you want for the nation", the Tories do this very well. They did it in 1992 and 2015 to great effect during very tough economic climates and Labour offering nothing really different to the Tories on the substantive issues of the day.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    No idea.

    I’ve been to Dundee a couple of times, and on occasion walked down Strawberry Bank to try to find an ancestor’s house.
    Talking of which:

    SNP gain Dundee from NOC
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Labour gain Worthing
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    edited May 2022
    It seems it's windy, and sunny somewhere, today.

    All electricity interconnectors nearly maxed out on exports. Very unusual.


  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    HYUFD said:

    Labour gain Worthing

    Obviously a town full of lefties and commies then...?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Ouch!

    Tories have only won 2 councillors in East Lothian ffs. That is truly dire.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    East Lothian now in. Tories 3 down to be 3rd party now, one seat going each to SNP, Green and Indy.

    Labour 9, SNP 7, Conservatives 4, Greens 1, Independent 1
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    edited May 2022
    Harrow may be one to watch. The Conservatives have won 5 out of 5 seats in Kenton, indicating that Hindu voters are shifting rightwards.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Ouch!

    Tories have only won 2 councillors in East Lothian ffs. That is truly dire.

    4 surelY? But almost halved.

    https://www.eastlothiancourier.com/news/20119249.live-east-lothian-council-election-count-2022/
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822



    As I keep saying, no-one serious is suggesting that Labour will win a majority. The question is whether the Tories will get one. We agree that they will try to by going all out on culture war. I am not sure it will work.

    That's not really a fair characterisation. It's not the Tories' fault that Labour activists, and many Labour MPs, promote views which most Labour target voters view as completely barmy, and then get themselves tied up in knots about them. The Tories are merely responding to the open goal Labour has placed in front of them. You are right that this might not be enough to distract from the government's economic catastrophe, but Labour aren't doing a great job of presenting a viable-looking alternative.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,311
    HYUFD said:

    Sky news general election projection based on this year's local elections voteshare.

    Hung Parliament

    Conservatives 278
    Labour 271
    SNP 50
    LDs 28

    Is that inclusive of boundary changes?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    DavidL said:

    Yes, replete with pictures of William and commemorating the Battle of the Boyne. It reminded me of my favourite scene in Trainspotting 2.
    I won't inquire what they put on the karaoke.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    4 surelY? But almost halved.

    https://www.eastlothiancourier.com/news/20119249.live-east-lothian-council-election-count-2022/
    BBC very very slow…
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,704
    For context:

    Labour on verge of (huge) GE victory, after May 1996 local elections, total seats held:

    Conservative 4276
    Labour 10929
    LibDem 5078

    Labour on verge of (small) GE defeat, after May 2009 local elections, 12 years in office, total seats held:

    Conservative 9721
    Labour 4436
    LibDem 4083

    Position before yesterday's local elections. 12 years in office, total seats held:

    Conservative 7408
    Labour 5705
    LibDem 2478
This discussion has been closed.