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The election day betting moves to a 2022 Johnson exit – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 15 in General
imageThe election day betting moves to a 2022 Johnson exit – politicalbetting.com

Above s the latest betting chart on the year of Johnson’s exit. As can be seen the prices have drifted a touch during polling day and now 2022 is just favourite.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,009
    FPT:

    Fantastic news, I've often said we should limit the number of grammar school educated people at the elite universities.

    Talented grammar school pupils should not be sidelined for the sake of improving diversity, elite universities have been told.

    Professor Stephen Toope, the vice-chancellor of Cambridge, has said the university might introduce figures on grammar school recruitment because focusing on intake from state schools as a whole was not an effective indicator of wealth or social class.

    Toope, a Canadian who leaves Cambridge this September, told The Times Education Commission on Tuesday that “substituting more grammar school students for students from independent schools” would not “accomplish widening participation goals”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dont-sideline-grammar-school-pupils-top-universities-told-pzrc333x6

    Now that's interesting. Does that mean that independent schools outperform grammar schools when it comes to getting into Cambridge?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 1,488
    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,343
    IDK, after the usual expectation management shenanigans it'd have to be a bloody awful Locals to cause a tipping point that leads to a 2022 exit.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,890
    Just visiting my parents up in Enfield, it's completely dead on the roads. Loads of people out walking and the bars/restaurants are packed. Discretionary spending on petrol/visits has definitely tanked in suburban north London. For now the bars, pubs and restaurants are doing roaring trade.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,698
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    The Scottish census has been a spectacular disaster and will have serious consequences for policy-making as the census returns are so important for providing the raw data on which decisions are made.

    Sturgeon, largely for political reasons, decided to unlink it from the rUK census. More here, if you find this sort of thing interesting:

    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,comment-scotlands-census-delay-is-just-another-scottish-government-failure
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,874
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    According to the ONS, the population of England and Wales was 84.2% White in 2019, 78.4% white British. That's a very slight decline on 2010. I doubt if it will have altered much in two years.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,504
    edited May 5

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    The Scottish census has been a spectacular disaster and will have serious consequences for policy-making as the census returns are so important for providing the raw data on which decisions are made.

    Sturgeon, largely for political reasons, decided to unlink it from the rUK census. More here, if you find this sort of thing interesting:

    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,comment-scotlands-census-delay-is-just-another-scottish-government-failure
    On the plus side, if they do the £1,000 fine for the sort of 20-25% of households who've not done it, nice little earner?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,343
    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Point of Information

    Re: today's elections what is basic timetable for results? For example, will they start counting in Northern Ireland tonight OR wait until Friday?

    Am guessing that returns from local elections in Britain will start trickling in around midnight? Specifically, what about London?

    ALSO what are some good links for live blogs & results reporting?

    Thanks in advance for your aid & assistance for your fellow PBer(s)!

    N. Ireland is Friday. It's STV, a long count with multiple rounds, so needs a full day.
    Same as in Republic. Sensible way to do it, election one day, counting the next.

    Yours truly has observed plenty of elections, where election workers & administrators put in a full Election Day, and then some - and then work some more processing ballots & counting votes into the wee hours. NOT optimum from efficiency standpoint.

    Whereas on the Emerald Isle, having the count the following day gives workers AND observers the opportunity to get a decent night's sleep between plunging into the vote counting bright-eyed and bushy-tailed.
    I've been a counting agent, most recently for the EU referendum, in Luton. And, you're right, everyone is exhausted, and ballot papers are constantly being put into the wrong pile. You have to concentrate really hard.
    I've done lots of counts, and I can't say I've really noticed a big difference in errors between a daytime beginning and a count through the night approach. As for workers working in the day and then the count, certainly in my area they don't let people do both now, except for the electoral services staff themselves (as opposed to presiding officers/count staff), so if it happens elsewhere just stop that, and the tirednes is really not an issue.

    But really it's just the tradition I like, that normal people can mostly wake up and know the results straight away, that the political volunteers face the drama of a day's volunteering and then a wait through the night. I think one night of being a bit bleary eyed is not onerous (and the candidates themselves are usually not there from the start, and get some shut eye). For Locals a large number won't be around for all night anyway, as there's relatively quick turnaround most of the time (parishes can be more awkward and time costing)

    So whilst there is a convenience aspect to waiting to the next day, I don't think it is as huge as supposed (certainly if people are talking about errors), in which case it's a matter of preference rather than actual superiority.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,504
    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,504
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Point of Information

    Re: today's elections what is basic timetable for results? For example, will they start counting in Northern Ireland tonight OR wait until Friday?

    Am guessing that returns from local elections in Britain will start trickling in around midnight? Specifically, what about London?

    ALSO what are some good links for live blogs & results reporting?

    Thanks in advance for your aid & assistance for your fellow PBer(s)!

    N. Ireland is Friday. It's STV, a long count with multiple rounds, so needs a full day.
    Same as in Republic. Sensible way to do it, election one day, counting the next.

    Yours truly has observed plenty of elections, where election workers & administrators put in a full Election Day, and then some - and then work some more processing ballots & counting votes into the wee hours. NOT optimum from efficiency standpoint.

    Whereas on the Emerald Isle, having the count the following day gives workers AND observers the opportunity to get a decent night's sleep between plunging into the vote counting bright-eyed and bushy-tailed.
    I've been a counting agent, most recently for the EU referendum, in Luton. And, you're right, everyone is exhausted, and ballot papers are constantly being put into the wrong pile. You have to concentrate really hard.
    I've done lots of counts, and I can't say I've really noticed a big difference in errors between a daytime beginning and a count through the night approach. As for workers working in the day and then the count, certainly in my area they don't let people do both now, except for the electoral services staff themselves (as opposed to presiding officers/count staff), so if it happens elsewhere just stop that, and the tirednes is really not an issue.

    But really it's just the tradition I like, that normal people can mostly wake up and know the results straight away, that the political volunteers face the drama of a day's volunteering and then a wait through the night. I think one night of being a bit bleary eyed is not onerous (and the candidates themselves are usually not there from the start, and get some shut eye). For Locals a large number won't be around for all night anyway, as there's relatively quick turnaround most of the time (parishes can be more awkward and time costing)

    So whilst there is a convenience aspect to waiting to the next day, I don't think it is as huge as supposed (certainly if people are talking about errors), in which case it's a matter of preference rather than actual superiority.
    It's why we shouldn't bother with e.g. GE exit polls. Total anti-climax when they're right and you essentially know the result minutes after the polls close. Meh.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,698

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    The Scottish census has been a spectacular disaster and will have serious consequences for policy-making as the census returns are so important for providing the raw data on which decisions are made.

    Sturgeon, largely for political reasons, decided to unlink it from the rUK census. More here, if you find this sort of thing interesting:

    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,comment-scotlands-census-delay-is-just-another-scottish-government-failure
    On the plus side, if they do the £1,000 fine for the sort of 20-25% of households who've not done it, nice little earner?
    Will it pay for the ferries?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,504
    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    The Scottish census has been a spectacular disaster and will have serious consequences for policy-making as the census returns are so important for providing the raw data on which decisions are made.

    Sturgeon, largely for political reasons, decided to unlink it from the rUK census. More here, if you find this sort of thing interesting:

    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,comment-scotlands-census-delay-is-just-another-scottish-government-failure
    On the plus side, if they do the £1,000 fine for the sort of 20-25% of households who've not done it, nice little earner?
    Will it pay for the ferries?
    Once the census money's been banked and we apply the new interest rates until they're ready, sure!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,897
    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Sean_F said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    According to the ONS, the population of England and Wales was 84.2% White in 2019, 78.4% white British. That's a very slight decline on 2010. I doubt if it will have altered much in two years.
    It's actually a pretty high percentage, especially compared to places like the US. Most of the White Irish and White Other will become White British in a generation, and the Mixed Race group is increasingly similar in culture with White British. You can see this with the England football team when you see interviews with people like Trent Alexander-Arnold, who is as Scouse as Steven Gerrard.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,897

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    The Scottish census has been a spectacular disaster and will have serious consequences for policy-making as the census returns are so important for providing the raw data on which decisions are made.

    Sturgeon, largely for political reasons, decided to unlink it from the rUK census. More here, if you find this sort of thing interesting:

    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,comment-scotlands-census-delay-is-just-another-scottish-government-failure
    On the plus side, if they do the £1,000 fine for the sort of 20-25% of households who've not done it, nice little earner?
    Wouldn’t that pale into insignificance, compared to the loss of block grant caused by the recorded population being lower than expected?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,896
    edited May 5
    Masterchef. Really close final I think. Any of the three could win, but I’m inclining towards Eddie
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,417
    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    There can't be many people with experience of what they're looking for. They might be inundated with applications from yoga teachers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,897
    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,874
    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    Can you get an NVQ in that?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,343
    Sandpit said:

    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE

    Too content to let the Court resolve big questions and leave it at that, because legislating is hard?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,897
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE

    Too content to let the Court resolve big questions and leave it at that, because legislating is hard?
    More like too interested in keeping it as a live political issue, because it turns out their voters at election time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,276
    edited May 5
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Not convinced that Mobilisation really helps. Too slow, too inexperienced and lacking in equipment.

    One thing that I learned today is that Russian soldiers can legally refuse to enter Ukraine unless war is declared, and apparently some have done.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 8,143
    Said last post that Malmesbury would be a positive addition to Boeing board of directors.

    And while my comments had a bit of a barb, am sincere in saying the above.

    Note that Boeing recently threw bean-counting CEO (successor to Stonecipher the REAL culprit IMHO) and put in an engineer, definitely a change for better.

    As for moving HQ to DC area from Chicago, cozier lobby opportunities no doubt a factor. But wonder IF other factors also, such as property investments and tax considerations, are also in play?

    And am wondering, just how sound in pure business terms, was moving from Seattle to Chicago in the first place. As real impetus appeared to be - from Seattle's perspective - corporate desire to NOT be too tied to Washington State? Part and parcel with moving significant share of Boeing's aircraft production to South Carolina - with mixed results re: quality control if not (apparent) cost reduction.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,276
    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,698
    edited May 5
    Sandpit said:

    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE

    I was wondering about this earlier. However, it did occur to me that when in the 1970s there was an attempt to pass the Equal Rights Amendment - which should have been pretty uncontroversial - it failed, even with an extended deadline. So it's difficult to see how an amendment enshrining the right to abortion would have passed. And realistically a constitutional amendment would have been needed here as otherwise the Supreme Court would have found some other excuse to reverse. This is about raw power and naked bigotry, not law.

    So it is a bit harsh to blame the Dems. Could they have done more? Probably. Would it have made the slightest difference? Not likely.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,245
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Boeing is moving its corporate headquarters from Chicago to Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC.

    Considerable schadenfreude in Seattle, the FIRST city betrayed by Boeing's bean-counting, no-brains leadership.

    All the better to lobby from ?
    Who knows with these fools, it's not exactly difficult to lobby from anywhere these days.
    The cozy lunch is a bit hard to do over Zoom. Plus you don't want to say a various things with microphones about....
    Perhaps you should be on the Boeing board of directors, as you are so knowlegable?

    Actually, think you'd be an improvement, even if all you know is what you glean from the web!
    Still wondering what has happened to the firm that made the B-17, B-52, B-707 and 747 ...
    Management to maximise short term shareholder profits happened. A.K.A "Eating the seed corn"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,006
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    Can you get an NVQ in that?
    "Vladimir Putin Studies"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,897

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Boeing is moving its corporate headquarters from Chicago to Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC.

    Considerable schadenfreude in Seattle, the FIRST city betrayed by Boeing's bean-counting, no-brains leadership.

    All the better to lobby from ?
    Who knows with these fools, it's not exactly difficult to lobby from anywhere these days.
    The cozy lunch is a bit hard to do over Zoom. Plus you don't want to say a various things with microphones about....
    Perhaps you should be on the Boeing board of directors, as you are so knowlegable?

    Actually, think you'd be an improvement, even if all you know is what you glean from the web!
    Still wondering what has happened to the firm that made the B-17, B-52, B-707 and 747 ...
    Management to maximise short term shareholder profits happened. A.K.A "Eating the seed corn"
    Replacing the engineers on the board, with accountants and MBAs, moving the HQ out of Seattle, doing deals with the regulator to let them certify their own aircraft…
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 8,143
    Sandpit said:

    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE

    Without getting out my matchsticks, don't think that Dem admins since Roe v Wade have had the votes in Congress to codify it into FEDERAL law.

    On state level, numbers of states - including WA State - have done just that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,504
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Not convinced that Mobilisation really helps. Too slow, too inexperienced and lacking in equipment.

    One thing that I learned today is that Russian soldiers can legally refuse to enter Ukraine unless war is declared, and apparently some have done.
    Not really a choice for those from the poorest Russian regions - and certainly not for the press ganged conscripts from the Donbas.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 1,597
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Worrying for Putin. Consensus seems to be if they mobilise, they risk revolution. If they don’t they can keep the war far away, but risk defeat. Putin is fucked one way or the other. It’s either:

    - military defeat in Ukraine,
    - Coup / revolution
    - Nuclear wipeout in WW3
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,009
    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    West Ham were doomed the moment the Premier League agreed to move their game with Man City to 14:00 on the Sunday before the final. The PL have managed to inconvenience four sets of supporters for no reason. Even if they had made the final, it would still have been the reserves against Man City.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,657
    edited May 5
    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    The Spanners and Leicester are a bit Man City.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,343
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Worrying for Putin. Consensus seems to be if they mobilise, they risk revolution. If they don’t they can keep the war far away, but risk defeat. Putin is fucked one way or the other. It’s either:

    - military defeat in Ukraine,
    - Coup / revolution
    - Nuclear wipeout in WW3
    Has revolution really been raised as a serious prospect? I know regimes tend to look pretty solid even if they would fall over if pushed, but his grip seems tighter than ever and the prospect of tens of thousands of dead troops doesn't seem to be causing much difficulty, particularly if those who like to present as 'realists' looking for a way to give Putin something he can call a win (like the corridor to Crimea) win out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,657
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    West Ham were doomed the moment the Premier League agreed to move their game with Man City to 14:00 on the Sunday before the final. The PL have managed to inconvenience four sets of supporters for no reason. Even if they had made the final, it would still have been the reserves against Man City.
    Scandalous decision.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 40,417
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Not convinced that Mobilisation really helps. Too slow, too inexperienced and lacking in equipment.

    One thing that I learned today is that Russian soldiers can legally refuse to enter Ukraine unless war is declared, and apparently some have done.
    Has any major power formally declared war since WW2?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,326
    Sean_F said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    According to the ONS, the population of England and Wales was 84.2% White in 2019, 78.4% white British. That's a very slight decline on 2010. I doubt if it will have altered much in two years.
    Isam is going to have very badly lost his bet with me on the number of Muslims in the UK.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,657
    edited May 5

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Not convinced that Mobilisation really helps. Too slow, too inexperienced and lacking in equipment.

    One thing that I learned today is that Russian soldiers can legally refuse to enter Ukraine unless war is declared, and apparently some have done.
    Has any major power formally declared war since WW2?
    Yeah, America did after 9/11

    Edit - I'm posting fake news.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_war_by_the_United_States#Formal
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 8,143

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    There can't be many people with experience of what they're looking for. They might be inundated with applications from yoga teachers.
    "I mobilized my fellow bar patrons in Pskov for littering campaign. In just a week, we increased litter by 258 percent!"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,897
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Not convinced that Mobilisation really helps. Too slow, too inexperienced and lacking in equipment.

    One thing that I learned today is that Russian soldiers can legally refuse to enter Ukraine unless war is declared, and apparently some have done.
    Yes, it’s a two-edged sword for them.

    Do they really want tens of thousands of barely-trained reservists with insufficient equipment, on the battlefield as cannon fodder? Tens of thousands more grieving wives and mothers?

    Do they have sufficient industrial capacity to make military vehicles? We think they can only turn out a handful of tanks a week in total, when they’re losing a dozen a day to NLAWs.

    Interesting point about the legality of war. There were some stories of deserters early in the war, soldiers who thought they were doing exercises in Belarus, who didn’t expect to be heading for Kiev to shoot at their cousins.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,009

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    West Ham were doomed the moment the Premier League agreed to move their game with Man City to 14:00 on the Sunday before the final. The PL have managed to inconvenience four sets of supporters for no reason. Even if they had made the final, it would still have been the reserves against Man City.
    Scandalous decision.
    They'll probably swap them back now to suit Sky!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 8,143
    Hey, what's that website that lists results from UK local each week? Cannot remember it right now!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,657
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    West Ham were doomed the moment the Premier League agreed to move their game with Man City to 14:00 on the Sunday before the final. The PL have managed to inconvenience four sets of supporters for no reason. Even if they had made the final, it would still have been the reserves against Man City.
    Scandalous decision.
    They'll probably swap them back now to suit Sky!
    Typical anti Liverpool bias from the PL as usual.

    Klopp asks to reschedule the Newcastle and the PL tell him to eff off, but for a match West Ham won't be playing, the PL reschedule it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,890
    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    Celtic fans crying into their evening beer.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,276

    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    The Spanners and Leicester are a bit Man City.
    Poor defending of a corner...again 🙄
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,874

    Hey, what's that website that lists results from UK local each week? Cannot remember it right now!

    Vote uk forum?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 266
    Colin McEvedy (in the Penguin Atlas of African History) says this: "Thanks to geneticists, we can now quantify the differences between human populations and it turns out that all the non-African races of mankind -- Europeans and middle-Easterners, Chinese and Japanese, Indians and Indonesians, Polynesians, Amerindians and Australian Aborigines -- have very similar genetic constitutions."

    In contrast, because the population of sub-Saharan Africa was so much larger (about a 1000 times) when the out-of-Africa group left, "present-day sub-Saharan Africans have retained this rich genetic inheritance and different groups are as different from each other as they are from extra-African humankind."

    Wisely, McEvedy does not call any of these groups "races", since that is a sure way to attract trouble, if you are within 100 miles (or more) of a modern university.

    For instance, the American Anthropological Association has been arguing about whether they are doing science for decades. So far as this outsider can tell, the anti-scientists are winning.

    For the record, I am pleased by the increased number of Americans who are of mixed race, and say so, openly and often proudly: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2015/06/11/multiracial-in-america/
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,494
    Just got in from knocking-up (GOTV to our American friends). On such a beautiful May evening why would anyone not exercise their democratic rights? Highlight was meeting a voter logged as soft Conservative who thought all politicians were wimps and wanted a strong national leader like Oliver Cromwell.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,245
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Boeing is moving its corporate headquarters from Chicago to Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC.

    Considerable schadenfreude in Seattle, the FIRST city betrayed by Boeing's bean-counting, no-brains leadership.

    All the better to lobby from ?
    Who knows with these fools, it's not exactly difficult to lobby from anywhere these days.
    The cozy lunch is a bit hard to do over Zoom. Plus you don't want to say a various things with microphones about....
    Perhaps you should be on the Boeing board of directors, as you are so knowlegable?

    Actually, think you'd be an improvement, even if all you know is what you glean from the web!
    Still wondering what has happened to the firm that made the B-17, B-52, B-707 and 747 ...
    Management to maximise short term shareholder profits happened. A.K.A "Eating the seed corn"
    Thing is in aerospace, when you screw up your product it's not the share price that crashes.

    And it's not money people end up losing.
    But. But. But. The lawyers and accountants promised that the possible cost of the payouts would be tiny. Compared to the increased profits.

    And it's not like outsourcing all our knowledge and integration skills will make the planes any less safe anyway.

    And we can always make it up on our military contracts. Our friend in congress will make sure of that.

    P.S. Anyone want a slightly un-used spacecraft?

    P.S.S. Can't deal with these unprofessional idiots - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvim4rsNHkQ
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,698

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Not convinced that Mobilisation really helps. Too slow, too inexperienced and lacking in equipment.

    One thing that I learned today is that Russian soldiers can legally refuse to enter Ukraine unless war is declared, and apparently some have done.
    Has any major power formally declared war since WW2?
    Yeah, America did after 9/11

    Edit - I'm posting fake news.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_war_by_the_United_States#Formal
    Panama declared war on America in 1989, if that counts.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,657
    slade said:

    Just got in from knocking-up (GOTV to our American friends). On such a beautiful May evening why would anyone not exercise their democratic rights? Highlight was meeting a voter logged as soft Conservative who thought all politicians were wimps and wanted a strong national leader like Oliver Cromwell.

    How many voters did you knock up today?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,276
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    According to the ONS, the population of England and Wales was 84.2% White in 2019, 78.4% white British. That's a very slight decline on 2010. I doubt if it will have altered much in two years.
    Isam is going to have very badly lost his bet with me on the number of Muslims in the UK.
    Remind us what the wager is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,343

    Hey, what's that website that lists results from UK local each week? Cannot remember it right now!

    Britain Elects?
    https://medium.com/britainelects
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,266
    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 20,874
    slade said:

    Just got in from knocking-up (GOTV to our American friends). On such a beautiful May evening why would anyone not exercise their democratic rights? Highlight was meeting a voter logged as soft Conservative who thought all politicians were wimps and wanted a strong national leader like Oliver Cromwell.

    That's one way to solve the Border Protocol.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,245
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Worrying for Putin. Consensus seems to be if they mobilise, they risk revolution. If they don’t they can keep the war far away, but risk defeat. Putin is fucked one way or the other. It’s either:

    - military defeat in Ukraine,
    - Coup / revolution
    - Nuclear wipeout in WW3
    Has revolution really been raised as a serious prospect? I know regimes tend to look pretty solid even if they would fall over if pushed, but his grip seems tighter than ever and the prospect of tens of thousands of dead troops doesn't seem to be causing much difficulty, particularly if those who like to present as 'realists' looking for a way to give Putin something he can call a win (like the corridor to Crimea) win out.
    It sound like Putin is going for a military version of - "We are losing money on every sale. But we will make up for it in the volume."
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,006
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    West Ham were doomed the moment the Premier League agreed to move their game with Man City to 14:00 on the Sunday before the final. The PL have managed to inconvenience four sets of supporters for no reason. Even if they had made the final, it would still have been the reserves against Man City.
    Oh well, we can concentrate on the League.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 266
    One common explanation in the Seattle area for Boeing's problems is that the merger with McDonnell Douglas brought in bad values. (I have no idea whether that theory has any truth to it, but it is certain that some top managers paid no attention to explicit warnings from their engineers and programmers.)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,006

    slade said:

    Just got in from knocking-up (GOTV to our American friends). On such a beautiful May evening why would anyone not exercise their democratic rights? Highlight was meeting a voter logged as soft Conservative who thought all politicians were wimps and wanted a strong national leader like Oliver Cromwell.

    How many voters did you knock up today?
    Wa-hey! That sounds TERRIBLY rude!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,266
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Worrying for Putin. Consensus seems to be if they mobilise, they risk revolution. If they don’t they can keep the war far away, but risk defeat. Putin is fucked one way or the other. It’s either:

    - military defeat in Ukraine,
    - Coup / revolution
    - Nuclear wipeout in WW3
    Has revolution really been raised as a serious prospect? I know regimes tend to look pretty solid even if they would fall over if pushed, but his grip seems tighter than ever and the prospect of tens of thousands of dead troops doesn't seem to be causing much difficulty, particularly if those who like to present as 'realists' looking for a way to give Putin something he can call a win (like the corridor to Crimea) win out.
    "Tighter than ever". For dictators it's sometimes like metal. It can be very strong, but brittle.

    This is the direction Putin is going with his repression, stronger but brittler. At some point, brittle snaps.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,897
    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    Good piece, but that bloody song is now stuck in my head!
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,494

    slade said:

    Just got in from knocking-up (GOTV to our American friends). On such a beautiful May evening why would anyone not exercise their democratic rights? Highlight was meeting a voter logged as soft Conservative who thought all politicians were wimps and wanted a strong national leader like Oliver Cromwell.

    How many voters did you knock up today?
    I'm 78 so not many I hope.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,266
    Sandpit said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    Good piece, but that bloody song is now stuck in my head!
    Ear worm
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 8,143

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Not convinced that Mobilisation really helps. Too slow, too inexperienced and lacking in equipment.

    One thing that I learned today is that Russian soldiers can legally refuse to enter Ukraine unless war is declared, and apparently some have done.
    Has any major power formally declared war since WW2?
    Yeah, America did after 9/11

    Edit - I'm posting fake news.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_war_by_the_United_States#Formal
    Bulgaria, Hungary & Romania say hi!
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,130
    IT'S GAME ON LADIES AND GENTS!

    We're counting TONIGHT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_(Sefton_ward)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,343
    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 266
    slade - Thanks for that clarification since, as I assume you know, "knocking-up" has a rather different meaning, here.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,910
    Strongly suspect the chance of Johnson leaving in 2022 will be barely affected by the locals but significantly affected by the upcoming by-elections. But time will tell.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 5,839

    slade said:

    Just got in from knocking-up (GOTV to our American friends). On such a beautiful May evening why would anyone not exercise their democratic rights? Highlight was meeting a voter logged as soft Conservative who thought all politicians were wimps and wanted a strong national leader like Oliver Cromwell.

    How many voters did you knock up today?
    Wa-hey! That sounds TERRIBLY rude!
    He has started well, but I don’t think Screaming Eagles can keep it up all night.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,343

    IT'S GAME ON LADIES AND GENTS!

    We're counting TONIGHT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_(Sefton_ward)

    Looks like a 'weigh the votes' kind of place - no need to stay up?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,245

    One common explanation in the Seattle area for Boeing's problems is that the merger with McDonnell Douglas brought in bad values. (I have no idea whether that theory has any truth to it, but it is certain that some top managers paid no attention to explicit warnings from their engineers and programmers.)

    Kind of.

    It's misses out quite a bit of blame for long term Boeing employees - it's a handy externalisation of the problem.

    It's more about the corporate culture that can't accept that they are fucking up.

    They took the out sourcing paradigm to the limit and beyond. They tried to turn Boeing into a hedge fund that owned some IP and paid other people too make planes. They lost control and understanding of their business. And they never learn to do modern software.

    There was a hilarious leaked email (have to find it) about SpaceX, NASA and Boeings failures in the Commercial Crew program. The author of the email took the success of SpaceX to prove that the problem was with the horribly unfair Commercial Crew program. Because otherwise Boeing would have won. By Divine Right, as the greatest aerospace company ever.

    When you reach the stage where your failures are evidence of your genius.....
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,494

    slade - Thanks for that clarification since, as I assume you know, "knocking-up" has a rather different meaning, here.

    I do indeed. For what it's worth in the ward I was working we did two complete knock-ups of our supporters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,698

    slade said:

    Just got in from knocking-up (GOTV to our American friends). On such a beautiful May evening why would anyone not exercise their democratic rights? Highlight was meeting a voter logged as soft Conservative who thought all politicians were wimps and wanted a strong national leader like Oliver Cromwell.

    How many voters did you knock up today?
    Wa-hey! That sounds TERRIBLY rude!
    It was pregnant with innuendo.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 44,794
    Quincel said:

    Strongly suspect the chance of Johnson leaving in 2022 will be barely affected by the locals but significantly affected by the upcoming by-elections. But time will tell.

    It's a good time to lay his exit in 2022.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,698
    slade said:

    slade - Thanks for that clarification since, as I assume you know, "knocking-up" has a rather different meaning, here.

    I do indeed. For what it's worth in the ward I was working we did two complete knock-ups of our supporters.
    You're getting into a hole here...
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,130
    kle4 said:

    IT'S GAME ON LADIES AND GENTS!

    We're counting TONIGHT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_(Sefton_ward)

    Looks like a 'weigh the votes' kind of place - no need to stay up?
    Going to see how Hannah does (she's standing again) as we're friends.
    She is making slow but steady progress. Honestly, I don't think she'll win, but maybe she can close the gap.
    She suspects turnout will be down slightly (no PCC voting this time), and is hoping to squeeze the CON vote a bit more. Let's wait and see......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,343

    kle4 said:

    IT'S GAME ON LADIES AND GENTS!

    We're counting TONIGHT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_(Sefton_ward)

    Looks like a 'weigh the votes' kind of place - no need to stay up?
    Going to see how Hannah does (she's standing again) as we're friends.
    She is making slow but steady progress. Honestly, I don't think she'll win, but maybe she can close the gap.
    She suspects turnout will be down slightly (no PCC voting this time), and is hoping to squeeze the CON vote a bit more. Let's wait and see......
    Then good luck to Hannah.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,531
    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact. There is certainly a point at which supporting any cause, however just, becomes too high a price to pay. The level of that price is different for different countries. For Turkey, the price is zilch. But they're getting no stick whatsoever. Germany seems prepared to do a lot more than Turkey, but less than the UK. The UK has a little more wiggle room, as we're less dependent on Russian energy, which is great, but over all, it doesn't make me feel terribly comfortable that the current Government is so quick to set aside the national interest to earn some meaningless backslapping in the counsels of the world.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,694
    Good match at Ibrox.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,657

    Quincel said:

    Strongly suspect the chance of Johnson leaving in 2022 will be barely affected by the locals but significantly affected by the upcoming by-elections. But time will tell.

    It's a good time to lay his exit in 2022.
    I'm actually backing a 2022 exit.

    There was a great big red flag recently.

    The PM has a majority of nearly 80 and he could't whip his side to stop Labour's amendment on investigating the PM.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,698
    edited May 5

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact.
    If you're going to be tortured and killed whether you fight or whether you give in without a fight, it is not 'unanswerable fact' that it is 'intolerable disproportion' to at least take some of the mofos with you. And that is clearly what is happening in Ukraine.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,341

    Sandpit said:

    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE

    Without getting out my matchsticks, don't think that Dem admins since Roe v Wade have had the votes in Congress to codify it into FEDERAL law.

    On state level, numbers of states - including WA State - have done just that.
    With the possible exception of the very start of Carter's term I think it highly unlikely that the Dems every had a veto proof majority in favour of codifying Roe. Obama's incredibly brief window of a veto proof majority (due to death and delayed seating of some of the Dems making up the majority) was used to land Obamacare and there was almost certainly a number of anti-Roe senators amongst that 60 so no actual chance of passing it.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,266

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact. There is certainly a point at which supporting any cause, however just, becomes too high a price to pay. The level of that price is different for different countries. For Turkey, the price is zilch. But they're getting no stick whatsoever. Germany seems prepared to do a lot more than Turkey, but less than the UK. The UK has a little more wiggle room, as we're less dependent on Russian energy, which is great, but over all, it doesn't make me feel terribly comfortable that the current Government is so quick to set aside the national interest to earn some meaningless backslapping in the counsels of the world.
    Yes, you've made it quite clear where you stand, or roll over.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,694

    Quincel said:

    Strongly suspect the chance of Johnson leaving in 2022 will be barely affected by the locals but significantly affected by the upcoming by-elections. But time will tell.

    It's a good time to lay his exit in 2022.
    Agreed. I might wait for a couple of days and do exactly that. The Clown is going nowhere.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,030
    Need a few volunteers to help with data collection tonight - most importantly seat winners but also ideally vote totals for more detailed graphics and analysis down the line.

    Shoot me a DM if you'd be keen and are planning to stay up! If you've helped in previous years lmk too!

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1522301145087156226
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,897

    Quincel said:

    Strongly suspect the chance of Johnson leaving in 2022 will be barely affected by the locals but significantly affected by the upcoming by-elections. But time will tell.

    It's a good time to lay his exit in 2022.
    I'm actually backing a 2022 exit.

    There was a great big red flag recently.

    The PM has a majority of nearly 80 and he could't whip his side to stop Labour's amendment on investigating the PM.
    They may have close to the 54 votes for the challenge, but do the rebels have the 180 votes required to force him out?

    We saw the same with Mrs May in 2018, who was challenged but won comfortably.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,130


    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact. There is certainly a point at which supporting any cause, however just, becomes too high a price to pay. The level of that price is different for different countries. For Turkey, the price is zilch. But they're getting no stick whatsoever. Germany seems prepared to do a lot more than Turkey, but less than the UK. The UK has a little more wiggle room, as we're less dependent on Russian energy, which is great, but over all, it doesn't make me feel terribly comfortable that the current Government is so quick to set aside the national interest to earn some meaningless backslapping in the counsels of the world.

    Genuine question - what do you think is the UK's national interest with respect to Ukraine-Russia?
    Because I think it's Reagan's idea of lobbing one in the mens room in the Kremlin.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,698
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE

    Without getting out my matchsticks, don't think that Dem admins since Roe v Wade have had the votes in Congress to codify it into FEDERAL law.

    On state level, numbers of states - including WA State - have done just that.
    With the possible exception of the very start of Carter's term I think it highly unlikely that the Dems every had a veto proof majority in favour of codifying Roe. Obama's incredibly brief window of a veto proof majority (due to death and delayed seating of some of the Dems making up the majority) was used to land Obamacare and there was almost certainly a number of anti-Roe senators amongst that 60 so no actual chance of passing it.
    What difference would it have made? The current court are perfectly capable of declaring it not a federal competency and setting aside the Ninth Amendment if it had been a federal law.

    Absent a constitutional amendment, this court would still have found a way round abortion rights.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,698


    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact. There is certainly a point at which supporting any cause, however just, becomes too high a price to pay. The level of that price is different for different countries. For Turkey, the price is zilch. But they're getting no stick whatsoever. Germany seems prepared to do a lot more than Turkey, but less than the UK. The UK has a little more wiggle room, as we're less dependent on Russian energy, which is great, but over all, it doesn't make me feel terribly comfortable that the current Government is so quick to set aside the national interest to earn some meaningless backslapping in the counsels of the world.

    Genuine question - what do you think is the UK's national interest with respect to Ukraine-Russia?
    Because I think it's Reagan's idea of lobbing one in the mens room in the Kremlin.
    That was Goldwater.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,874
    edited May 5
    TimT said:

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    I cannot express how angry those words you bolded make me. It does not even have the courage of "If I am threatened, I will surrender." It is "I, from the luxury and comfort of my couch, which I never believe will be subjected to bombs and bullets, tell you you must surrender so that my ordered life can continue."
    It's a sentiment that comes from a place of very great privilege. They have the luxury of feeling good as they tell others to surrender. "Scum" is not too strong a word to describe the people who express such sentiments.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,130
    ydoethur said:


    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact. There is certainly a point at which supporting any cause, however just, becomes too high a price to pay. The level of that price is different for different countries. For Turkey, the price is zilch. But they're getting no stick whatsoever. Germany seems prepared to do a lot more than Turkey, but less than the UK. The UK has a little more wiggle room, as we're less dependent on Russian energy, which is great, but over all, it doesn't make me feel terribly comfortable that the current Government is so quick to set aside the national interest to earn some meaningless backslapping in the counsels of the world.

    Genuine question - what do you think is the UK's national interest with respect to Ukraine-Russia?
    Because I think it's Reagan's idea of lobbing one in the mens room in the Kremlin.
    That was Goldwater.
    My apologies, so it was......
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,245

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact. There is certainly a point at which supporting any cause, however just, becomes too high a price to pay. The level of that price is different for different countries. For Turkey, the price is zilch. But they're getting no stick whatsoever. Germany seems prepared to do a lot more than Turkey, but less than the UK. The UK has a little more wiggle room, as we're less dependent on Russian energy, which is great, but over all, it doesn't make me feel terribly comfortable that the current Government is so quick to set aside the national interest to earn some meaningless backslapping in the counsels of the world.
    Which is why the Russians should surrender at discretion, immediately.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 8,143

    One common explanation in the Seattle area for Boeing's problems is that the merger with McDonnell Douglas brought in bad values. (I have no idea whether that theory has any truth to it, but it is certain that some top managers paid no attention to explicit warnings from their engineers and programmers.)

    Kind of.

    It's misses out quite a bit of blame for long term Boeing employees - it's a handy externalisation of the problem.

    It's more about the corporate culture that can't accept that they are fucking up.

    They took the out sourcing paradigm to the limit and beyond. They tried to turn Boeing into a hedge fund that owned some IP and paid other people too make planes. They lost control and understanding of their business. And they never learn to do modern software.

    There was a hilarious leaked email (have to find it) about SpaceX, NASA and Boeings failures in the Commercial Crew program. The author of the email took the success of SpaceX to prove that the problem was with the horribly unfair Commercial Crew program. Because otherwise Boeing would have won. By Divine Right, as the greatest aerospace company ever.

    When you reach the stage where your failures are evidence of your genius.....
    Jim Miller still has a point re; Northrup. Kindly respect our Pacific Northwest folk wisdom!

    And clearly you WOULD be an adornment to the Boeing board, no joke.

    At least you know it's possible to lie (esp. to one's self) with statistics!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 16,531
    ..
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact.
    If you're going to be tortured and killed whether you fight or whether you give in without a fight, it is not 'unanswerable fact' that it is 'intolerable disproportion' to at least take some of the mofos with you. And that is clearly what is happening in Ukraine.
    I don't blame anyone in Ukraine for fighting the invasion. I merely state that there is absolutely a point at which supporting their continued brave resistance becomes untenable. Everyone, and every polity, must decide where their personal and collective point is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,343
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE

    Without getting out my matchsticks, don't think that Dem admins since Roe v Wade have had the votes in Congress to codify it into FEDERAL law.

    On state level, numbers of states - including WA State - have done just that.
    With the possible exception of the very start of Carter's term I think it highly unlikely that the Dems every had a veto proof majority in favour of codifying Roe. Obama's incredibly brief window of a veto proof majority (due to death and delayed seating of some of the Dems making up the majority) was used to land Obamacare and there was almost certainly a number of anti-Roe senators amongst that 60 so no actual chance of passing it.
    What difference would it have made? The current court are perfectly capable of declaring it not a federal competency and setting aside the Ninth Amendment if it had been a federal law.

    Absent a constitutional amendment, this court would still have found a way round abortion rights.
    You mean they started with a solution and worked their way backwards from there? What an astonishing accusation about jurists who never operate to advance their personal poltical agendas.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,446
    Quincel said:

    Strongly suspect the chance of Johnson leaving in 2022 will be barely affected by the locals but significantly affected by the upcoming by-elections. But time will tell.

    Agree. And also I think such value as there is, betting wise, is with Boris exit in 2023.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 38,897

    ..

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact.
    If you're going to be tortured and killed whether you fight or whether you give in without a fight, it is not 'unanswerable fact' that it is 'intolerable disproportion' to at least take some of the mofos with you. And that is clearly what is happening in Ukraine.
    I don't blame anyone in Ukraine for fighting the invasion. I merely state that there is absolutely a point at which supporting their continued brave resistance becomes untenable. Everyone, and every polity, must decide where their personal and collective point is.
    We are a long, long way away from that point.
This discussion has been closed.