Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

The election day betting moves to a 2022 Johnson exit – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,818
edited May 2022 in General
imageThe election day betting moves to a 2022 Johnson exit – politicalbetting.com

Above s the latest betting chart on the year of Johnson’s exit. As can be seen the prices have drifted a touch during polling day and now 2022 is just favourite.

Read the full story here

«134567

Comments

  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,505
    FPT:

    Fantastic news, I've often said we should limit the number of grammar school educated people at the elite universities.

    Talented grammar school pupils should not be sidelined for the sake of improving diversity, elite universities have been told.

    Professor Stephen Toope, the vice-chancellor of Cambridge, has said the university might introduce figures on grammar school recruitment because focusing on intake from state schools as a whole was not an effective indicator of wealth or social class.

    Toope, a Canadian who leaves Cambridge this September, told The Times Education Commission on Tuesday that “substituting more grammar school students for students from independent schools” would not “accomplish widening participation goals”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dont-sideline-grammar-school-pupils-top-universities-told-pzrc333x6

    Now that's interesting. Does that mean that independent schools outperform grammar schools when it comes to getting into Cambridge?
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 6,738
    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,555
    IDK, after the usual expectation management shenanigans it'd have to be a bloody awful Locals to cause a tipping point that leads to a 2022 exit.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    Just visiting my parents up in Enfield, it's completely dead on the roads. Loads of people out walking and the bars/restaurants are packed. Discretionary spending on petrol/visits has definitely tanked in suburban north London. For now the bars, pubs and restaurants are doing roaring trade.
  • Options
    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,505
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    The Scottish census has been a spectacular disaster and will have serious consequences for policy-making as the census returns are so important for providing the raw data on which decisions are made.

    Sturgeon, largely for political reasons, decided to unlink it from the rUK census. More here, if you find this sort of thing interesting:

    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,comment-scotlands-census-delay-is-just-another-scottish-government-failure
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,403
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    According to the ONS, the population of England and Wales was 84.2% White in 2019, 78.4% white British. That's a very slight decline on 2010. I doubt if it will have altered much in two years.
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,627
    edited May 2022

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    The Scottish census has been a spectacular disaster and will have serious consequences for policy-making as the census returns are so important for providing the raw data on which decisions are made.

    Sturgeon, largely for political reasons, decided to unlink it from the rUK census. More here, if you find this sort of thing interesting:

    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,comment-scotlands-census-delay-is-just-another-scottish-government-failure
    On the plus side, if they do the £1,000 fine for the sort of 20-25% of households who've not done it, nice little earner?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,555
    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Point of Information

    Re: today's elections what is basic timetable for results? For example, will they start counting in Northern Ireland tonight OR wait until Friday?

    Am guessing that returns from local elections in Britain will start trickling in around midnight? Specifically, what about London?

    ALSO what are some good links for live blogs & results reporting?

    Thanks in advance for your aid & assistance for your fellow PBer(s)!

    N. Ireland is Friday. It's STV, a long count with multiple rounds, so needs a full day.
    Same as in Republic. Sensible way to do it, election one day, counting the next.

    Yours truly has observed plenty of elections, where election workers & administrators put in a full Election Day, and then some - and then work some more processing ballots & counting votes into the wee hours. NOT optimum from efficiency standpoint.

    Whereas on the Emerald Isle, having the count the following day gives workers AND observers the opportunity to get a decent night's sleep between plunging into the vote counting bright-eyed and bushy-tailed.
    I've been a counting agent, most recently for the EU referendum, in Luton. And, you're right, everyone is exhausted, and ballot papers are constantly being put into the wrong pile. You have to concentrate really hard.
    I've done lots of counts, and I can't say I've really noticed a big difference in errors between a daytime beginning and a count through the night approach. As for workers working in the day and then the count, certainly in my area they don't let people do both now, except for the electoral services staff themselves (as opposed to presiding officers/count staff), so if it happens elsewhere just stop that, and the tirednes is really not an issue.

    But really it's just the tradition I like, that normal people can mostly wake up and know the results straight away, that the political volunteers face the drama of a day's volunteering and then a wait through the night. I think one night of being a bit bleary eyed is not onerous (and the candidates themselves are usually not there from the start, and get some shut eye). For Locals a large number won't be around for all night anyway, as there's relatively quick turnaround most of the time (parishes can be more awkward and time costing)

    So whilst there is a convenience aspect to waiting to the next day, I don't think it is as huge as supposed (certainly if people are talking about errors), in which case it's a matter of preference rather than actual superiority.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,627
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    dixiedean said:

    Point of Information

    Re: today's elections what is basic timetable for results? For example, will they start counting in Northern Ireland tonight OR wait until Friday?

    Am guessing that returns from local elections in Britain will start trickling in around midnight? Specifically, what about London?

    ALSO what are some good links for live blogs & results reporting?

    Thanks in advance for your aid & assistance for your fellow PBer(s)!

    N. Ireland is Friday. It's STV, a long count with multiple rounds, so needs a full day.
    Same as in Republic. Sensible way to do it, election one day, counting the next.

    Yours truly has observed plenty of elections, where election workers & administrators put in a full Election Day, and then some - and then work some more processing ballots & counting votes into the wee hours. NOT optimum from efficiency standpoint.

    Whereas on the Emerald Isle, having the count the following day gives workers AND observers the opportunity to get a decent night's sleep between plunging into the vote counting bright-eyed and bushy-tailed.
    I've been a counting agent, most recently for the EU referendum, in Luton. And, you're right, everyone is exhausted, and ballot papers are constantly being put into the wrong pile. You have to concentrate really hard.
    I've done lots of counts, and I can't say I've really noticed a big difference in errors between a daytime beginning and a count through the night approach. As for workers working in the day and then the count, certainly in my area they don't let people do both now, except for the electoral services staff themselves (as opposed to presiding officers/count staff), so if it happens elsewhere just stop that, and the tirednes is really not an issue.

    But really it's just the tradition I like, that normal people can mostly wake up and know the results straight away, that the political volunteers face the drama of a day's volunteering and then a wait through the night. I think one night of being a bit bleary eyed is not onerous (and the candidates themselves are usually not there from the start, and get some shut eye). For Locals a large number won't be around for all night anyway, as there's relatively quick turnaround most of the time (parishes can be more awkward and time costing)

    So whilst there is a convenience aspect to waiting to the next day, I don't think it is as huge as supposed (certainly if people are talking about errors), in which case it's a matter of preference rather than actual superiority.
    It's why we shouldn't bother with e.g. GE exit polls. Total anti-climax when they're right and you essentially know the result minutes after the polls close. Meh.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    The Scottish census has been a spectacular disaster and will have serious consequences for policy-making as the census returns are so important for providing the raw data on which decisions are made.

    Sturgeon, largely for political reasons, decided to unlink it from the rUK census. More here, if you find this sort of thing interesting:

    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,comment-scotlands-census-delay-is-just-another-scottish-government-failure
    On the plus side, if they do the £1,000 fine for the sort of 20-25% of households who've not done it, nice little earner?
    Will it pay for the ferries?
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,627
    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    The Scottish census has been a spectacular disaster and will have serious consequences for policy-making as the census returns are so important for providing the raw data on which decisions are made.

    Sturgeon, largely for political reasons, decided to unlink it from the rUK census. More here, if you find this sort of thing interesting:

    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,comment-scotlands-census-delay-is-just-another-scottish-government-failure
    On the plus side, if they do the £1,000 fine for the sort of 20-25% of households who've not done it, nice little earner?
    Will it pay for the ferries?
    Once the census money's been banked and we apply the new interest rates until they're ready, sure!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917
    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Sean_F said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    According to the ONS, the population of England and Wales was 84.2% White in 2019, 78.4% white British. That's a very slight decline on 2010. I doubt if it will have altered much in two years.
    It's actually a pretty high percentage, especially compared to places like the US. Most of the White Irish and White Other will become White British in a generation, and the Mixed Race group is increasingly similar in culture with White British. You can see this with the England football team when you see interviews with people like Trent Alexander-Arnold, who is as Scouse as Steven Gerrard.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    The Scottish census has been a spectacular disaster and will have serious consequences for policy-making as the census returns are so important for providing the raw data on which decisions are made.

    Sturgeon, largely for political reasons, decided to unlink it from the rUK census. More here, if you find this sort of thing interesting:

    https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,comment-scotlands-census-delay-is-just-another-scottish-government-failure
    On the plus side, if they do the £1,000 fine for the sort of 20-25% of households who've not done it, nice little earner?
    Wouldn’t that pale into insignificance, compared to the loss of block grant caused by the recorded population being lower than expected?
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,065
    edited May 2022
    Masterchef. Really close final I think. Any of the three could win, but I’m inclining towards Eddie
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,190
    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    There can't be many people with experience of what they're looking for. They might be inundated with applications from yoga teachers.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917
    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,628
    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    Can you get an NVQ in that?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,555
    Sandpit said:

    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE

    Too content to let the Court resolve big questions and leave it at that, because legislating is hard?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE

    Too content to let the Court resolve big questions and leave it at that, because legislating is hard?
    More like too interested in keeping it as a live political issue, because it turns out their voters at election time.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,000
    edited May 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Not convinced that Mobilisation really helps. Too slow, too inexperienced and lacking in equipment.

    One thing that I learned today is that Russian soldiers can legally refuse to enter Ukraine unless war is declared, and apparently some have done.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158
    Said last post that Malmesbury would be a positive addition to Boeing board of directors.

    And while my comments had a bit of a barb, am sincere in saying the above.

    Note that Boeing recently threw bean-counting CEO (successor to Stonecipher the REAL culprit IMHO) and put in an engineer, definitely a change for better.

    As for moving HQ to DC area from Chicago, cozier lobby opportunities no doubt a factor. But wonder IF other factors also, such as property investments and tax considerations, are also in play?

    And am wondering, just how sound in pure business terms, was moving from Seattle to Chicago in the first place. As real impetus appeared to be - from Seattle's perspective - corporate desire to NOT be too tied to Washington State? Part and parcel with moving significant share of Boeing's aircraft production to South Carolina - with mixed results re: quality control if not (apparent) cost reduction.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,000
    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382
    edited May 2022
    Sandpit said:

    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE

    I was wondering about this earlier. However, it did occur to me that when in the 1970s there was an attempt to pass the Equal Rights Amendment - which should have been pretty uncontroversial - it failed, even with an extended deadline. So it's difficult to see how an amendment enshrining the right to abortion would have passed. And realistically a constitutional amendment would have been needed here as otherwise the Supreme Court would have found some other excuse to reverse. This is about raw power and naked bigotry, not law.

    So it is a bit harsh to blame the Dems. Could they have done more? Probably. Would it have made the slightest difference? Not likely.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Boeing is moving its corporate headquarters from Chicago to Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC.

    Considerable schadenfreude in Seattle, the FIRST city betrayed by Boeing's bean-counting, no-brains leadership.

    All the better to lobby from ?
    Who knows with these fools, it's not exactly difficult to lobby from anywhere these days.
    The cozy lunch is a bit hard to do over Zoom. Plus you don't want to say a various things with microphones about....
    Perhaps you should be on the Boeing board of directors, as you are so knowlegable?

    Actually, think you'd be an improvement, even if all you know is what you glean from the web!
    Still wondering what has happened to the firm that made the B-17, B-52, B-707 and 747 ...
    Management to maximise short term shareholder profits happened. A.K.A "Eating the seed corn"
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,046
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    Can you get an NVQ in that?
    "Vladimir Putin Studies"
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Boeing is moving its corporate headquarters from Chicago to Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC.

    Considerable schadenfreude in Seattle, the FIRST city betrayed by Boeing's bean-counting, no-brains leadership.

    All the better to lobby from ?
    Who knows with these fools, it's not exactly difficult to lobby from anywhere these days.
    The cozy lunch is a bit hard to do over Zoom. Plus you don't want to say a various things with microphones about....
    Perhaps you should be on the Boeing board of directors, as you are so knowlegable?

    Actually, think you'd be an improvement, even if all you know is what you glean from the web!
    Still wondering what has happened to the firm that made the B-17, B-52, B-707 and 747 ...
    Management to maximise short term shareholder profits happened. A.K.A "Eating the seed corn"
    Replacing the engineers on the board, with accountants and MBAs, moving the HQ out of Seattle, doing deals with the regulator to let them certify their own aircraft…
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158
    Sandpit said:

    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE

    Without getting out my matchsticks, don't think that Dem admins since Roe v Wade have had the votes in Congress to codify it into FEDERAL law.

    On state level, numbers of states - including WA State - have done just that.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,463
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Not convinced that Mobilisation really helps. Too slow, too inexperienced and lacking in equipment.

    One thing that I learned today is that Russian soldiers can legally refuse to enter Ukraine unless war is declared, and apparently some have done.
    Not really a choice for those from the poorest Russian regions - and certainly not for the press ganged conscripts from the Donbas.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,783
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Worrying for Putin. Consensus seems to be if they mobilise, they risk revolution. If they don’t they can keep the war far away, but risk defeat. Putin is fucked one way or the other. It’s either:

    - military defeat in Ukraine,
    - Coup / revolution
    - Nuclear wipeout in WW3
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,505
    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    West Ham were doomed the moment the Premier League agreed to move their game with Man City to 14:00 on the Sunday before the final. The PL have managed to inconvenience four sets of supporters for no reason. Even if they had made the final, it would still have been the reserves against Man City.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,778
    edited May 2022
    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    The Spanners and Leicester are a bit Man City.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,555
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Worrying for Putin. Consensus seems to be if they mobilise, they risk revolution. If they don’t they can keep the war far away, but risk defeat. Putin is fucked one way or the other. It’s either:

    - military defeat in Ukraine,
    - Coup / revolution
    - Nuclear wipeout in WW3
    Has revolution really been raised as a serious prospect? I know regimes tend to look pretty solid even if they would fall over if pushed, but his grip seems tighter than ever and the prospect of tens of thousands of dead troops doesn't seem to be causing much difficulty, particularly if those who like to present as 'realists' looking for a way to give Putin something he can call a win (like the corridor to Crimea) win out.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,778
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    West Ham were doomed the moment the Premier League agreed to move their game with Man City to 14:00 on the Sunday before the final. The PL have managed to inconvenience four sets of supporters for no reason. Even if they had made the final, it would still have been the reserves against Man City.
    Scandalous decision.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,190
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Not convinced that Mobilisation really helps. Too slow, too inexperienced and lacking in equipment.

    One thing that I learned today is that Russian soldiers can legally refuse to enter Ukraine unless war is declared, and apparently some have done.
    Has any major power formally declared war since WW2?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,769
    Sean_F said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    According to the ONS, the population of England and Wales was 84.2% White in 2019, 78.4% white British. That's a very slight decline on 2010. I doubt if it will have altered much in two years.
    Isam is going to have very badly lost his bet with me on the number of Muslims in the UK.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,778
    edited May 2022

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Not convinced that Mobilisation really helps. Too slow, too inexperienced and lacking in equipment.

    One thing that I learned today is that Russian soldiers can legally refuse to enter Ukraine unless war is declared, and apparently some have done.
    Has any major power formally declared war since WW2?
    Yeah, America did after 9/11

    Edit - I'm posting fake news.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_war_by_the_United_States#Formal
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    There can't be many people with experience of what they're looking for. They might be inundated with applications from yoga teachers.
    "I mobilized my fellow bar patrons in Pskov for littering campaign. In just a week, we increased litter by 258 percent!"
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Not convinced that Mobilisation really helps. Too slow, too inexperienced and lacking in equipment.

    One thing that I learned today is that Russian soldiers can legally refuse to enter Ukraine unless war is declared, and apparently some have done.
    Yes, it’s a two-edged sword for them.

    Do they really want tens of thousands of barely-trained reservists with insufficient equipment, on the battlefield as cannon fodder? Tens of thousands more grieving wives and mothers?

    Do they have sufficient industrial capacity to make military vehicles? We think they can only turn out a handful of tanks a week in total, when they’re losing a dozen a day to NLAWs.

    Interesting point about the legality of war. There were some stories of deserters early in the war, soldiers who thought they were doing exercises in Belarus, who didn’t expect to be heading for Kiev to shoot at their cousins.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,505

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    West Ham were doomed the moment the Premier League agreed to move their game with Man City to 14:00 on the Sunday before the final. The PL have managed to inconvenience four sets of supporters for no reason. Even if they had made the final, it would still have been the reserves against Man City.
    Scandalous decision.
    They'll probably swap them back now to suit Sky!
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158
    Hey, what's that website that lists results from UK local each week? Cannot remember it right now!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,778
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    West Ham were doomed the moment the Premier League agreed to move their game with Man City to 14:00 on the Sunday before the final. The PL have managed to inconvenience four sets of supporters for no reason. Even if they had made the final, it would still have been the reserves against Man City.
    Scandalous decision.
    They'll probably swap them back now to suit Sky!
    Typical anti Liverpool bias from the PL as usual.

    Klopp asks to reschedule the Newcastle and the PL tell him to eff off, but for a match West Ham won't be playing, the PL reschedule it.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    Celtic fans crying into their evening beer.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,000

    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    The Spanners and Leicester are a bit Man City.
    Poor defending of a corner...again 🙄
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,628

    Hey, what's that website that lists results from UK local each week? Cannot remember it right now!

    Vote uk forum?
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,599
    Colin McEvedy (in the Penguin Atlas of African History) says this: "Thanks to geneticists, we can now quantify the differences between human populations and it turns out that all the non-African races of mankind -- Europeans and middle-Easterners, Chinese and Japanese, Indians and Indonesians, Polynesians, Amerindians and Australian Aborigines -- have very similar genetic constitutions."

    In contrast, because the population of sub-Saharan Africa was so much larger (about a 1000 times) when the out-of-Africa group left, "present-day sub-Saharan Africans have retained this rich genetic inheritance and different groups are as different from each other as they are from extra-African humankind."

    Wisely, McEvedy does not call any of these groups "races", since that is a sure way to attract trouble, if you are within 100 miles (or more) of a modern university.

    For instance, the American Anthropological Association has been arguing about whether they are doing science for decades. So far as this outsider can tell, the anti-scientists are winning.

    For the record, I am pleased by the increased number of Americans who are of mixed race, and say so, openly and often proudly: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2015/06/11/multiracial-in-america/
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,962
    Just got in from knocking-up (GOTV to our American friends). On such a beautiful May evening why would anyone not exercise their democratic rights? Highlight was meeting a voter logged as soft Conservative who thought all politicians were wimps and wanted a strong national leader like Oliver Cromwell.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    Boeing is moving its corporate headquarters from Chicago to Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC.

    Considerable schadenfreude in Seattle, the FIRST city betrayed by Boeing's bean-counting, no-brains leadership.

    All the better to lobby from ?
    Who knows with these fools, it's not exactly difficult to lobby from anywhere these days.
    The cozy lunch is a bit hard to do over Zoom. Plus you don't want to say a various things with microphones about....
    Perhaps you should be on the Boeing board of directors, as you are so knowlegable?

    Actually, think you'd be an improvement, even if all you know is what you glean from the web!
    Still wondering what has happened to the firm that made the B-17, B-52, B-707 and 747 ...
    Management to maximise short term shareholder profits happened. A.K.A "Eating the seed corn"
    Thing is in aerospace, when you screw up your product it's not the share price that crashes.

    And it's not money people end up losing.
    But. But. But. The lawyers and accountants promised that the possible cost of the payouts would be tiny. Compared to the increased profits.

    And it's not like outsourcing all our knowledge and integration skills will make the planes any less safe anyway.

    And we can always make it up on our military contracts. Our friend in congress will make sure of that.

    P.S. Anyone want a slightly un-used spacecraft?

    P.S.S. Can't deal with these unprofessional idiots - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvim4rsNHkQ
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Not convinced that Mobilisation really helps. Too slow, too inexperienced and lacking in equipment.

    One thing that I learned today is that Russian soldiers can legally refuse to enter Ukraine unless war is declared, and apparently some have done.
    Has any major power formally declared war since WW2?
    Yeah, America did after 9/11

    Edit - I'm posting fake news.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_war_by_the_United_States#Formal
    Panama declared war on America in 1989, if that counts.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,778
    slade said:

    Just got in from knocking-up (GOTV to our American friends). On such a beautiful May evening why would anyone not exercise their democratic rights? Highlight was meeting a voter logged as soft Conservative who thought all politicians were wimps and wanted a strong national leader like Oliver Cromwell.

    How many voters did you knock up today?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,000
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    Speaking of race, the 2021 census results are due out at some stage.

    It appears that “White British” has dropped from 78% since 2010 to 70%.

    Is that just because the British bit has declined, e.g. "White Scottish" has grown?
    We will never know (unless they actually manage to finish the census up here).
    According to the ONS, the population of England and Wales was 84.2% White in 2019, 78.4% white British. That's a very slight decline on 2010. I doubt if it will have altered much in two years.
    Isam is going to have very badly lost his bet with me on the number of Muslims in the UK.
    Remind us what the wager is.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,555

    Hey, what's that website that lists results from UK local each week? Cannot remember it right now!

    Britain Elects?
    https://medium.com/britainelects
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,628
    slade said:

    Just got in from knocking-up (GOTV to our American friends). On such a beautiful May evening why would anyone not exercise their democratic rights? Highlight was meeting a voter logged as soft Conservative who thought all politicians were wimps and wanted a strong national leader like Oliver Cromwell.

    That's one way to solve the Border Protocol.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Worrying for Putin. Consensus seems to be if they mobilise, they risk revolution. If they don’t they can keep the war far away, but risk defeat. Putin is fucked one way or the other. It’s either:

    - military defeat in Ukraine,
    - Coup / revolution
    - Nuclear wipeout in WW3
    Has revolution really been raised as a serious prospect? I know regimes tend to look pretty solid even if they would fall over if pushed, but his grip seems tighter than ever and the prospect of tens of thousands of dead troops doesn't seem to be causing much difficulty, particularly if those who like to present as 'realists' looking for a way to give Putin something he can call a win (like the corridor to Crimea) win out.
    It sound like Putin is going for a military version of - "We are losing money on every sale. But we will make up for it in the volume."
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,046
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Rangers looking good but not Leicester or West Ham.

    West Ham were doomed the moment the Premier League agreed to move their game with Man City to 14:00 on the Sunday before the final. The PL have managed to inconvenience four sets of supporters for no reason. Even if they had made the final, it would still have been the reserves against Man City.
    Oh well, we can concentrate on the League.
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,599
    One common explanation in the Seattle area for Boeing's problems is that the merger with McDonnell Douglas brought in bad values. (I have no idea whether that theory has any truth to it, but it is certain that some top managers paid no attention to explicit warnings from their engineers and programmers.)
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,046

    slade said:

    Just got in from knocking-up (GOTV to our American friends). On such a beautiful May evening why would anyone not exercise their democratic rights? Highlight was meeting a voter logged as soft Conservative who thought all politicians were wimps and wanted a strong national leader like Oliver Cromwell.

    How many voters did you knock up today?
    Wa-hey! That sounds TERRIBLY rude!
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Worrying for Putin. Consensus seems to be if they mobilise, they risk revolution. If they don’t they can keep the war far away, but risk defeat. Putin is fucked one way or the other. It’s either:

    - military defeat in Ukraine,
    - Coup / revolution
    - Nuclear wipeout in WW3
    Has revolution really been raised as a serious prospect? I know regimes tend to look pretty solid even if they would fall over if pushed, but his grip seems tighter than ever and the prospect of tens of thousands of dead troops doesn't seem to be causing much difficulty, particularly if those who like to present as 'realists' looking for a way to give Putin something he can call a win (like the corridor to Crimea) win out.
    "Tighter than ever". For dictators it's sometimes like metal. It can be very strong, but brittle.

    This is the direction Putin is going with his repression, stronger but brittler. At some point, brittle snaps.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917
    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    Good piece, but that bloody song is now stuck in my head!
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,962

    slade said:

    Just got in from knocking-up (GOTV to our American friends). On such a beautiful May evening why would anyone not exercise their democratic rights? Highlight was meeting a voter logged as soft Conservative who thought all politicians were wimps and wanted a strong national leader like Oliver Cromwell.

    How many voters did you knock up today?
    I'm 78 so not many I hope.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Sandpit said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    Good piece, but that bloody song is now stuck in my head!
    Ear worm
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Despite the Kremlin spox saying full-scale mobilization rumors are “nonsense,” Russian state agencies (from the post office to the tax inspectors) have started flooding online job portals with listings for “mobilization experts.”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1522277544791322624

    That’s more than a little worrying.
    Not convinced that Mobilisation really helps. Too slow, too inexperienced and lacking in equipment.

    One thing that I learned today is that Russian soldiers can legally refuse to enter Ukraine unless war is declared, and apparently some have done.
    Has any major power formally declared war since WW2?
    Yeah, America did after 9/11

    Edit - I'm posting fake news.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_war_by_the_United_States#Formal
    Bulgaria, Hungary & Romania say hi!
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,813
    IT'S GAME ON LADIES AND GENTS!

    We're counting TONIGHT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_(Sefton_ward)
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,555
    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,599
    slade - Thanks for that clarification since, as I assume you know, "knocking-up" has a rather different meaning, here.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,035
    Strongly suspect the chance of Johnson leaving in 2022 will be barely affected by the locals but significantly affected by the upcoming by-elections. But time will tell.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,147

    slade said:

    Just got in from knocking-up (GOTV to our American friends). On such a beautiful May evening why would anyone not exercise their democratic rights? Highlight was meeting a voter logged as soft Conservative who thought all politicians were wimps and wanted a strong national leader like Oliver Cromwell.

    How many voters did you knock up today?
    Wa-hey! That sounds TERRIBLY rude!
    He has started well, but I don’t think Screaming Eagles can keep it up all night.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,555

    IT'S GAME ON LADIES AND GENTS!

    We're counting TONIGHT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_(Sefton_ward)

    Looks like a 'weigh the votes' kind of place - no need to stay up?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628

    One common explanation in the Seattle area for Boeing's problems is that the merger with McDonnell Douglas brought in bad values. (I have no idea whether that theory has any truth to it, but it is certain that some top managers paid no attention to explicit warnings from their engineers and programmers.)

    Kind of.

    It's misses out quite a bit of blame for long term Boeing employees - it's a handy externalisation of the problem.

    It's more about the corporate culture that can't accept that they are fucking up.

    They took the out sourcing paradigm to the limit and beyond. They tried to turn Boeing into a hedge fund that owned some IP and paid other people too make planes. They lost control and understanding of their business. And they never learn to do modern software.

    There was a hilarious leaked email (have to find it) about SpaceX, NASA and Boeings failures in the Commercial Crew program. The author of the email took the success of SpaceX to prove that the problem was with the horribly unfair Commercial Crew program. Because otherwise Boeing would have won. By Divine Right, as the greatest aerospace company ever.

    When you reach the stage where your failures are evidence of your genius.....
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,962

    slade - Thanks for that clarification since, as I assume you know, "knocking-up" has a rather different meaning, here.

    I do indeed. For what it's worth in the ward I was working we did two complete knock-ups of our supporters.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382

    slade said:

    Just got in from knocking-up (GOTV to our American friends). On such a beautiful May evening why would anyone not exercise their democratic rights? Highlight was meeting a voter logged as soft Conservative who thought all politicians were wimps and wanted a strong national leader like Oliver Cromwell.

    How many voters did you knock up today?
    Wa-hey! That sounds TERRIBLY rude!
    It was pregnant with innuendo.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,252
    Quincel said:

    Strongly suspect the chance of Johnson leaving in 2022 will be barely affected by the locals but significantly affected by the upcoming by-elections. But time will tell.

    It's a good time to lay his exit in 2022.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382
    slade said:

    slade - Thanks for that clarification since, as I assume you know, "knocking-up" has a rather different meaning, here.

    I do indeed. For what it's worth in the ward I was working we did two complete knock-ups of our supporters.
    You're getting into a hole here...
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,813
    kle4 said:

    IT'S GAME ON LADIES AND GENTS!

    We're counting TONIGHT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_(Sefton_ward)

    Looks like a 'weigh the votes' kind of place - no need to stay up?
    Going to see how Hannah does (she's standing again) as we're friends.
    She is making slow but steady progress. Honestly, I don't think she'll win, but maybe she can close the gap.
    She suspects turnout will be down slightly (no PCC voting this time), and is hoping to squeeze the CON vote a bit more. Let's wait and see......
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,555

    kle4 said:

    IT'S GAME ON LADIES AND GENTS!

    We're counting TONIGHT: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_(Sefton_ward)

    Looks like a 'weigh the votes' kind of place - no need to stay up?
    Going to see how Hannah does (she's standing again) as we're friends.
    She is making slow but steady progress. Honestly, I don't think she'll win, but maybe she can close the gap.
    She suspects turnout will be down slightly (no PCC voting this time), and is hoping to squeeze the CON vote a bit more. Let's wait and see......
    Then good luck to Hannah.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,184
    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact. There is certainly a point at which supporting any cause, however just, becomes too high a price to pay. The level of that price is different for different countries. For Turkey, the price is zilch. But they're getting no stick whatsoever. Germany seems prepared to do a lot more than Turkey, but less than the UK. The UK has a little more wiggle room, as we're less dependent on Russian energy, which is great, but over all, it doesn't make me feel terribly comfortable that the current Government is so quick to set aside the national interest to earn some meaningless backslapping in the counsels of the world.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380
    Good match at Ibrox.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,778

    Quincel said:

    Strongly suspect the chance of Johnson leaving in 2022 will be barely affected by the locals but significantly affected by the upcoming by-elections. But time will tell.

    It's a good time to lay his exit in 2022.
    I'm actually backing a 2022 exit.

    There was a great big red flag recently.

    The PM has a majority of nearly 80 and he could't whip his side to stop Labour's amendment on investigating the PM.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382
    edited May 2022

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact.
    If you're going to be tortured and killed whether you fight or whether you give in without a fight, it is not 'unanswerable fact' that it is 'intolerable disproportion' to at least take some of the mofos with you. And that is clearly what is happening in Ukraine.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Sandpit said:

    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE

    Without getting out my matchsticks, don't think that Dem admins since Roe v Wade have had the votes in Congress to codify it into FEDERAL law.

    On state level, numbers of states - including WA State - have done just that.
    With the possible exception of the very start of Carter's term I think it highly unlikely that the Dems every had a veto proof majority in favour of codifying Roe. Obama's incredibly brief window of a veto proof majority (due to death and delayed seating of some of the Dems making up the majority) was used to land Obamacare and there was almost certainly a number of anti-Roe senators amongst that 60 so no actual chance of passing it.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact. There is certainly a point at which supporting any cause, however just, becomes too high a price to pay. The level of that price is different for different countries. For Turkey, the price is zilch. But they're getting no stick whatsoever. Germany seems prepared to do a lot more than Turkey, but less than the UK. The UK has a little more wiggle room, as we're less dependent on Russian energy, which is great, but over all, it doesn't make me feel terribly comfortable that the current Government is so quick to set aside the national interest to earn some meaningless backslapping in the counsels of the world.
    Yes, you've made it quite clear where you stand, or roll over.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 21,380

    Quincel said:

    Strongly suspect the chance of Johnson leaving in 2022 will be barely affected by the locals but significantly affected by the upcoming by-elections. But time will tell.

    It's a good time to lay his exit in 2022.
    Agreed. I might wait for a couple of days and do exactly that. The Clown is going nowhere.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,496
    Need a few volunteers to help with data collection tonight - most importantly seat winners but also ideally vote totals for more detailed graphics and analysis down the line.

    Shoot me a DM if you'd be keen and are planning to stay up! If you've helped in previous years lmk too!

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1522301145087156226
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917

    Quincel said:

    Strongly suspect the chance of Johnson leaving in 2022 will be barely affected by the locals but significantly affected by the upcoming by-elections. But time will tell.

    It's a good time to lay his exit in 2022.
    I'm actually backing a 2022 exit.

    There was a great big red flag recently.

    The PM has a majority of nearly 80 and he could't whip his side to stop Labour's amendment on investigating the PM.
    They may have close to the 54 votes for the challenge, but do the rebels have the 180 votes required to force him out?

    We saw the same with Mrs May in 2018, who was challenged but won comfortably.
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,813


    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact. There is certainly a point at which supporting any cause, however just, becomes too high a price to pay. The level of that price is different for different countries. For Turkey, the price is zilch. But they're getting no stick whatsoever. Germany seems prepared to do a lot more than Turkey, but less than the UK. The UK has a little more wiggle room, as we're less dependent on Russian energy, which is great, but over all, it doesn't make me feel terribly comfortable that the current Government is so quick to set aside the national interest to earn some meaningless backslapping in the counsels of the world.

    Genuine question - what do you think is the UK's national interest with respect to Ukraine-Russia?
    Because I think it's Reagan's idea of lobbing one in the mens room in the Kremlin.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE

    Without getting out my matchsticks, don't think that Dem admins since Roe v Wade have had the votes in Congress to codify it into FEDERAL law.

    On state level, numbers of states - including WA State - have done just that.
    With the possible exception of the very start of Carter's term I think it highly unlikely that the Dems every had a veto proof majority in favour of codifying Roe. Obama's incredibly brief window of a veto proof majority (due to death and delayed seating of some of the Dems making up the majority) was used to land Obamacare and there was almost certainly a number of anti-Roe senators amongst that 60 so no actual chance of passing it.
    What difference would it have made? The current court are perfectly capable of declaring it not a federal competency and setting aside the Ninth Amendment if it had been a federal law.

    Absent a constitutional amendment, this court would still have found a way round abortion rights.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,382


    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact. There is certainly a point at which supporting any cause, however just, becomes too high a price to pay. The level of that price is different for different countries. For Turkey, the price is zilch. But they're getting no stick whatsoever. Germany seems prepared to do a lot more than Turkey, but less than the UK. The UK has a little more wiggle room, as we're less dependent on Russian energy, which is great, but over all, it doesn't make me feel terribly comfortable that the current Government is so quick to set aside the national interest to earn some meaningless backslapping in the counsels of the world.

    Genuine question - what do you think is the UK's national interest with respect to Ukraine-Russia?
    Because I think it's Reagan's idea of lobbing one in the mens room in the Kremlin.
    That was Goldwater.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,403
    edited May 2022
    TimT said:

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    I cannot express how angry those words you bolded make me. It does not even have the courage of "If I am threatened, I will surrender." It is "I, from the luxury and comfort of my couch, which I never believe will be subjected to bombs and bullets, tell you you must surrender so that my ordered life can continue."
    It's a sentiment that comes from a place of very great privilege. They have the luxury of feeling good as they tell others to surrender. "Scum" is not too strong a word to describe the people who express such sentiments.
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,813
    ydoethur said:


    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact. There is certainly a point at which supporting any cause, however just, becomes too high a price to pay. The level of that price is different for different countries. For Turkey, the price is zilch. But they're getting no stick whatsoever. Germany seems prepared to do a lot more than Turkey, but less than the UK. The UK has a little more wiggle room, as we're less dependent on Russian energy, which is great, but over all, it doesn't make me feel terribly comfortable that the current Government is so quick to set aside the national interest to earn some meaningless backslapping in the counsels of the world.

    Genuine question - what do you think is the UK's national interest with respect to Ukraine-Russia?
    Because I think it's Reagan's idea of lobbing one in the mens room in the Kremlin.
    That was Goldwater.
    My apologies, so it was......
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,628

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact. There is certainly a point at which supporting any cause, however just, becomes too high a price to pay. The level of that price is different for different countries. For Turkey, the price is zilch. But they're getting no stick whatsoever. Germany seems prepared to do a lot more than Turkey, but less than the UK. The UK has a little more wiggle room, as we're less dependent on Russian energy, which is great, but over all, it doesn't make me feel terribly comfortable that the current Government is so quick to set aside the national interest to earn some meaningless backslapping in the counsels of the world.
    Which is why the Russians should surrender at discretion, immediately.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,158

    One common explanation in the Seattle area for Boeing's problems is that the merger with McDonnell Douglas brought in bad values. (I have no idea whether that theory has any truth to it, but it is certain that some top managers paid no attention to explicit warnings from their engineers and programmers.)

    Kind of.

    It's misses out quite a bit of blame for long term Boeing employees - it's a handy externalisation of the problem.

    It's more about the corporate culture that can't accept that they are fucking up.

    They took the out sourcing paradigm to the limit and beyond. They tried to turn Boeing into a hedge fund that owned some IP and paid other people too make planes. They lost control and understanding of their business. And they never learn to do modern software.

    There was a hilarious leaked email (have to find it) about SpaceX, NASA and Boeings failures in the Commercial Crew program. The author of the email took the success of SpaceX to prove that the problem was with the horribly unfair Commercial Crew program. Because otherwise Boeing would have won. By Divine Right, as the greatest aerospace company ever.

    When you reach the stage where your failures are evidence of your genius.....
    Jim Miller still has a point re; Northrup. Kindly respect our Pacific Northwest folk wisdom!

    And clearly you WOULD be an adornment to the Boeing board, no joke.

    At least you know it's possible to lie (esp. to one's self) with statistics!
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,184
    ..
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact.
    If you're going to be tortured and killed whether you fight or whether you give in without a fight, it is not 'unanswerable fact' that it is 'intolerable disproportion' to at least take some of the mofos with you. And that is clearly what is happening in Ukraine.
    I don't blame anyone in Ukraine for fighting the invasion. I merely state that there is absolutely a point at which supporting their continued brave resistance becomes untenable. Everyone, and every polity, must decide where their personal and collective point is.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,555
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    If we thought UK politics was bad, across the pond it’s really bad. Democrat commentators now starting to ask why Dem administrations have done nothing to codify Roe v Wade in law for decades.

    Here’s the brilliantly named Krystal Ball, with an eight-minute evisceration of cynical Washington politics.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=VJWLUxR7UyE

    Without getting out my matchsticks, don't think that Dem admins since Roe v Wade have had the votes in Congress to codify it into FEDERAL law.

    On state level, numbers of states - including WA State - have done just that.
    With the possible exception of the very start of Carter's term I think it highly unlikely that the Dems every had a veto proof majority in favour of codifying Roe. Obama's incredibly brief window of a veto proof majority (due to death and delayed seating of some of the Dems making up the majority) was used to land Obamacare and there was almost certainly a number of anti-Roe senators amongst that 60 so no actual chance of passing it.
    What difference would it have made? The current court are perfectly capable of declaring it not a federal competency and setting aside the Ninth Amendment if it had been a federal law.

    Absent a constitutional amendment, this court would still have found a way round abortion rights.
    You mean they started with a solution and worked their way backwards from there? What an astonishing accusation about jurists who never operate to advance their personal poltical agendas.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,221
    Quincel said:

    Strongly suspect the chance of Johnson leaving in 2022 will be barely affected by the locals but significantly affected by the upcoming by-elections. But time will tell.

    Agree. And also I think such value as there is, betting wise, is with Boris exit in 2023.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,917

    ..

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    I wonder what the author really thinks about the German intellectuals who wrote that open letter to Scholz?

    In a world of death pits and rape gangs there is nothing here but virtue signalling moral mush. Compare this with the clarity and toughness of other European leaders, especially the “warrior women” in charge of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, and Lithuania.

    https://thecritic.co.uk/its-time-to-burst-the-red-balloons/

    A lot of people ostensibly opposed to Russian victory but emphasising a quick peace (seemingly at any cost) probably make something like the below point. You know the sort, the ones who think arming Ukraine is a bad thing because it prolongs the fight, and fighting is bad as it gives them false hope.

    The authors of this miserable diatribe finally come up with a statement so awful that it would take a new long compound German word to capture just how cynical and patronising it is. They manage to accept that Russia is the aggressor, but claim: “Even legitimate resistance to an aggressor is at some point an intolerable disproportion.
    The last sentence is simply unanswerable fact.
    If you're going to be tortured and killed whether you fight or whether you give in without a fight, it is not 'unanswerable fact' that it is 'intolerable disproportion' to at least take some of the mofos with you. And that is clearly what is happening in Ukraine.
    I don't blame anyone in Ukraine for fighting the invasion. I merely state that there is absolutely a point at which supporting their continued brave resistance becomes untenable. Everyone, and every polity, must decide where their personal and collective point is.
    We are a long, long way away from that point.
This discussion has been closed.