How will Putin react to the news that EU states are going to supply Ukraine with fighter jets?
Supplies they may be able to get away with, actually sending EU fighter jets to Ukraine to engage the Russian airforce and bomb Russian troops would be risky given Putin has put the Russian nuclear missile arsenal on alert
a MiG-29 is a MiG-29. once it's had a slight coat of paint how you would know it's a Polish rather than Ukrainian one?
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
When the dust settles on this, which hopefully won't be in the form of nuclear fallout, the UK will be even more isolated than before. The EU has stood tall and risen to the challenge. They are forging ahead with a brilliant unity and are likely to enlarge, working in tandem with NATO.
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
The UK has imposed a flight ban on Russian planes just like the EU. The UK has imposed economic sanctions on Russia just like the EU.
Not all EU nations are in NATO either unlike the UK, Austria, Ireland, Sweden and Finland for example are not in NATO
And - that doesn't answer any one of Heathener's points. One of the key things we offered the EU was military strength and that isn't much use if Germany has decided to stand up and actual provide that might themselves...
The combined strength of the French, German, Spanish and Polish and Italian militaries will still be less than that of the Russian military even with the German spending increase.
Only with the UK and Turkish militaries alongside through NATO does it even match the size of the Russian military.
Germany also does not have nuclear weapons unlike us and the Russians. Only France in the EU does but they do not have as long a range as Trident
How will Putin react to the news that EU states are going to supply Ukraine with fighter jets?
Supplies they may be able to get away with, actually sending EU fighter jets to Ukraine to engage the Russian airforce and bomb Russian troops would be risky given Putin has put the Russian nuclear missile arsenal on alert
a MiG-29 is a MiG-29. once it's had a slight coat of paint how you would know it's a Polish rather than Ukrainian one?
The Polish ones are full of Western electronics now.
How much is $20bn a day for Russia? According to Wikipedia, Russia's GDP is about $1,600bn. So at this rate Russia burns through its entire GDP in under 100 days. Of course, its GDP will be negatively impacted by the war, so possibly rather sooner. I mean, I hope the war doesn't go on for 100 days - but it's an indication of the kind of pressure Russia is under to finish this. Remember also there will be other things it will be spending its money on besides war...
Where did you get $20bn per day from? $20bn per day is $133k per day for every of the 150k personnel in the Russian invasion force.
Much of the 'cost' will be on equipment and ammunition, lost and used. The cost would have been incurred in the past - sure there will be a replenishment cost but that could be at some indeterminate time in the future.
Smithson Junior has already debunked the 20 billion number a couple of times on here over the last few days. On the last thread he set out his calculations on it showing why the number is wildly exaggerated.
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
We have the opportunity for a major reset after six years of stupid bickering. The EU has changed utterly. In particular, this applies to Germany, which has put itself on course to become the world's largest non-nuclear military force and a major voice inside NATO. More than ever, it is in everyone's interests to find ways for the UK and the EU to work together productively. We now know we are all on the same side, that the UK's future is tied inextricably and unavoidably to Europe's and that we have plenty to offer each other. What is going to be interesting is how this plays out inside the Conservative party. Can the ERG accept this new reality?
They have a lot of new reality to accept. They're still keeping the door firmly shut to Ukranians seeking shelter - must keep the forrin out to appease the little Englander core vote.
That's not true, though. Certainly not in those stark terms.
How will Putin react to the news that EU states are going to supply Ukraine with fighter jets?
Supplies they may be able to get away with, actually sending EU fighter jets to Ukraine to engage the Russian airforce and bomb Russian troops would be risky given Putin has put the Russian nuclear missile arsenal on alert
a MiG-29 is a MiG-29. once it's had a slight coat of paint how you would know it's a Polish rather than Ukrainian one?
The Polish ones are full of Western electronics now.
And even if they were not, if one was to crash and be obtained by the Russians, every part will have serial numbers on them which will allow them to see which airframe it was, and which country 'owns' it.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
When the dust settles on this, which hopefully won't be in the form of nuclear fallout, the UK will be even more isolated than before. The EU has stood tall and risen to the challenge. They are forging ahead with a brilliant unity and are likely to enlarge, working in tandem with NATO.
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
The UK has imposed a flight ban on Russian planes just like the EU. The UK has imposed economic sanctions on Russia just like the EU.
Not all EU nations are in NATO either unlike the UK, Austria, Ireland, Sweden and Finland for example are not in NATO
And - that doesn't answer any one of Heathener's points. One of the key things we offered the EU was military strength and that isn't much use if Germany has decided to stand up and actual provide that might themselves...
The argument goes round in circles eventually. Fear of being subsumed into an “EU Army” was a “fear” of many of them there Brexiters.
Ultimately we Europhiles have two options. Take the bewailing the 2016 tragedy line or persuade people to reverse the decision. The two are not compatible in my view.
One of the things that will come out of this crisis, assuming we avoid Armageddon, is a chance to show that cooperation with Europe is the only way forward. That’s the sort of positive spin we need. Belittling the U.K. at this stage serves no purpose. That referendum is over. Talk of future “tragedy” and the constant Twitter talk of how “ashamed” we are of the U.K. as a result of it (and otherwise) is a tactic we have been at for over 6 years now and has got us absolutely nowhere.
How much is $20bn a day for Russia? According to Wikipedia, Russia's GDP is about $1,600bn. So at this rate Russia burns through its entire GDP in under 100 days. Of course, its GDP will be negatively impacted by the war, so possibly rather sooner. I mean, I hope the war doesn't go on for 100 days - but it's an indication of the kind of pressure Russia is under to finish this. Remember also there will be other things it will be spending its money on besides war...
Where did you get $20bn per day from? $20bn per day is $133k per day for every of the 150k personnel in the Russian invasion force.
Much of the 'cost' will be on equipment and ammunition, lost and used. The cost would have been incurred in the past - sure there will be a replenishment cost but that could be at some indeterminate time in the future.
Smithson Junior has already debunked the 20 billion number a couple of times on here over the last few days. On the last thread he set out his calculations on it showing why the number is wildly exaggerated.
If the 5,000 figure is correct, Russia has lost 1 in 200 of its total army strength of a million in just 4 days. Imagine losing 1 in 20 in 40 days, and that doesn't include those taken prisoner or deserting.
Most of that theoretical million are non-deployable conscripts in various parts of their training. Complete with obsolete equipment etc etc.
It is quite probable that force that Russia has around/in Ukraine *is* the sum total of their deployable army. Which is why Putin has been asking his few allies for help.
It does, quite astonishingly, indeed look like the Russians have deployed a huge proportion of what they have - what they actually have available, rather than what might theoretically exist on some general’s asset spreadsheet - in Ukraine.
He wouldn’t need to be asking for help, if he had a fraction of the men and equipment available that he claims to possess.
Emperor Putin is naked, and the world around him is waking up to that realisation this morning.
All armies have a tiny deployable proportion of their theoretical manpower.
The UK has 153K active duty personnel in the military. How many could we actually send to the Estonian border? 10% ?
Probably brigade strength so 6-7,000. But given everything that's been cancelled, cut or delayed that brigade would probably be CR2, CVR(T), FV430s, some random assortments of Bulldog/Jackal. The artillery would be a smattering of 155mm, some MLRS, and maybe a light gun battery.
This looks more like a re-enactment society than 21st century expeditionary warfare.
The UK is scheduled to commit a high readiness Armoured/Mechanized brigade to NATO in 2024 but that is currently looking unachievable as Warrior is going, Ajax is 2025+ or maybe never, Boxer is 2024+ and Challenger 3 is 2028+.
Thank the gods of war that the EU aren't running our military. What a desperate situation we'd be in then.
Agree on your assessment, very roughly. But I've also been skeptical of the media witterings about the Invincible Russian Military.
Ursula VDL, the President of the European Commission, did of course run the German Military as Defence Minister from 2013 to 2019 in Mutti Merkel's Government.
How will Putin react to the news that EU states are going to supply Ukraine with fighter jets?
Supplies they may be able to get away with, actually sending EU fighter jets to Ukraine to engage the Russian airforce and bomb Russian troops would be risky given Putin has put the Russian nuclear missile arsenal on alert
Really though isn't the Russian nuclear missile arsenal always on alert?
Yes but they have now changed the alarm lightbulb.
How will Putin react to the news that EU states are going to supply Ukraine with fighter jets?
Supplies they may be able to get away with, actually sending EU fighter jets to Ukraine to engage the Russian airforce and bomb Russian troops would be risky given Putin has put the Russian nuclear missile arsenal on alert
a MiG-29 is a MiG-29. once it's had a slight coat of paint how you would know it's a Polish rather than Ukrainian one?
Ukraine has MiG-29MU2 and Poland has MiG-29A with an IFF antenna next to the IRST sensor. Very easily distinguishable.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
When the dust settles on this, which hopefully won't be in the form of nuclear fallout, the UK will be even more isolated than before. The EU has stood tall and risen to the challenge. They are forging ahead with a brilliant unity and are likely to enlarge, working in tandem with NATO.
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
Hahahaha. Perhaps one of the most ridiculous comments of the last few weeks. Which given it is in competition with a genuine Moscow Troll is some going.
The UK - along with a select few EU countries - has led the way so far on support for Ukraine including getting in the weapons that they have been using to defend themselves whilst the EU as a whole was still prevaricating or in the case of Germany actually preventing support. The fact that the EU has finally caught up with Britain and the US is something to be delighted about but claiming they have 'stood tall' in contrast to the UK is fatuous and stupid in the extreme.
It has taken far too long but this weekend the EU finally caught up with some of the Non EU countries in realising the seriousness of the situation and doing something about it. Well done. Better late than never.
Once, by, as the song says a set of curious chances, I arrived in India with some Cambodian currency. Not a lot, fortunately. None of the banks I went to would change it and eventually I sold it to a fellow Brit in a bar. And promptly used some of the rupees he gave me to buy us both a drink!
Back when I was at university, the film society wanted to film an ad. For whatever reason this included a briefcase-full-of-cash scene. Someone at the local bank branch mentioned that there was a huge stack of South American currency (one of the hyper inflations there), for some reason - so for about £50 we filled the briefcase.
Some time later I was sent to the bank to get the film societies money back. It was half way through that I noticed that customers in the bank were staring at the sight of me emptying a briefcase of cash through the foreign exchange window.
When on Jury service many years ago I sat on an interesting case involving counterfeit notes. In the jury room we had on the table the principle exhibit, a bag containing £51,000 in dud twenties. To my eye they were indistinguishable from the real thing, although one of the jurors who worked in a bank was able to show us where they were visibly wrong.
It was about this time of year, close to the Cheltenham Festival when my requirement for surplus cash is higher than usual. I have to say I was tempted.
How will Putin react to the news that EU states are going to supply Ukraine with fighter jets?
Supplies they may be able to get away with, actually sending EU fighter jets to Ukraine to engage the Russian airforce and bomb Russian troops would be risky given Putin has put the Russian nuclear missile arsenal on alert
a MiG-29 is a MiG-29. once it's had a slight coat of paint how you would know it's a Polish rather than Ukrainian one?
The Polish ones are full of Western electronics now.
Yet supposedly a few have already been delivered. Equally it could be that Poland has pilots happy to fly them incognito...
Probably behind the curve but hadn’t seen this clip of Zelenskyy (posted by the Feigl no less!) which was apparently the start of his journey into fictional then real politics. Strong stuff, though perhaps not as brave as making jokes about gypsies.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
When the dust settles on this, which hopefully won't be in the form of nuclear fallout, the UK will be even more isolated than before. The EU has stood tall and risen to the challenge. They are forging ahead with a brilliant unity and are likely to enlarge, working in tandem with NATO.
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
The UK - along with a select few EU countries - has led the way .
Keep telling yourself this Richard if it makes you feel good.
Meanwhile, in the real world ...
(By the way, you'd get yourself into fewer dogfights on here if you toned down the hyperbole. But maybe that's what you enjoy doing. If so, I bid you adieu.)
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
When the dust settles on this, which hopefully won't be in the form of nuclear fallout, the UK will be even more isolated than before. The EU has stood tall and risen to the challenge. They are forging ahead with a brilliant unity and are likely to enlarge, working in tandem with NATO.
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
As far as one can tell, the Ukrainians are very gtateful for British military assistance.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
When the dust settles on this, which hopefully won't be in the form of nuclear fallout, the UK will be even more isolated than before. The EU has stood tall and risen to the challenge. They are forging ahead with a brilliant unity and are likely to enlarge, working in tandem with NATO.
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
Hahahaha. Perhaps one of the most ridiculous comments of the last few weeks. Which given it is in competition with a genuine Moscow Troll is some going.
The UK - along with a select few EU countries - has led the way so far on support for Ukraine including getting in the weapons that they have been using to defend themselves whilst the EU as a whole was still prevaricating or in the case of Germany actually preventing support. The fact that the EU has finally caught up with Britain and the US is something to be delighted about but claiming they have 'stood tall' in contrast to the UK is fatuous and stupid in the extreme.
It has taken far too long but this weekend the EU finally caught up with some of the Non EU countries in realising the seriousness of the situation and doing something about it. Well done. Better late than never.
People forget that just 3 days ago Germany had failed to send 5000 helmets to Ukraine whilst the UK had delivered to Ukraine the anti tank weapons that have been so effective.
People also forget that whilst the UK were calling for the SWIFT restrictions many countries in the EU were against it.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
When the dust settles on this, which hopefully won't be in the form of nuclear fallout, the UK will be even more isolated than before. The EU has stood tall and risen to the challenge. They are forging ahead with a brilliant unity and are likely to enlarge, working in tandem with NATO.
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
The UK - along with a select few EU countries - has led the way .
Keep telling yourself this Richard if it makes you feel good.
Meanwhile, in the real world ...
(By the way, you'd get yourself into fewer dogfights on here if you toned down the hyperbole. But maybe that's what you enjoy doing. If so, I bid you adieu.)
What do you think of Operation ORBITAL if not Britain's early support for Ukraine (compared to others)?
Throughout this campaign, the world has certainly learnt one thing: Ukraine is a place full of the craziest fun people. Not just the guy carrying the mine, but the guy standing next to him filming it! As they laugh about it....
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
When the dust settles on this, which hopefully won't be in the form of nuclear fallout, the UK will be even more isolated than before. The EU has stood tall and risen to the challenge. They are forging ahead with a brilliant unity and are likely to enlarge, working in tandem with NATO.
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
The UK - along with a select few EU countries - has led the way .
Keep telling yourself this Richard if it makes you feel good.
Meanwhile, in the real world ...
(By the way, you'd get yourself into fewer dogfights on here if you toned down the hyperbole. But maybe that's what you enjoy doing. If so, I bid you adieu.)
In the real world, British military equipment and military intelligence has made a big difference.
A new renewable energy source is being tested - drill 8 miles down and use the geothermal heat.
I saw the Cornish experiment in the mid-80s - Camborne School of Mines Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Project in the Carnmenellis granite. I believe the Eden Project is involved in experiments that way. But this new thing sounds much deeper.
There's actually a working geothermal heating system in the middle of Southampton.
"By 2007, the system had 11 km (6.8 miles) of pipes, and was producing 40 GWh of heat, 22 GWh of electricity and 8 GWh of cooling per year."
How much is $20bn a day for Russia? According to Wikipedia, Russia's GDP is about $1,600bn. So at this rate Russia burns through its entire GDP in under 100 days. Of course, its GDP will be negatively impacted by the war, so possibly rather sooner. I mean, I hope the war doesn't go on for 100 days - but it's an indication of the kind of pressure Russia is under to finish this. Remember also there will be other things it will be spending its money on besides war...
Where did you get $20bn per day from? $20bn per day is $133k per day for every of the 150k personnel in the Russian invasion force.
Much of the 'cost' will be on equipment and ammunition, lost and used. The cost would have been incurred in the past - sure there will be a replenishment cost but that could be at some indeterminate time in the future.
I take it back - apparently $20bn per day is bunk. It was a figure flying around on here the other day. Pity.
How much is $20bn a day for Russia? According to Wikipedia, Russia's GDP is about $1,600bn. So at this rate Russia burns through its entire GDP in under 100 days. Of course, its GDP will be negatively impacted by the war, so possibly rather sooner. I mean, I hope the war doesn't go on for 100 days - but it's an indication of the kind of pressure Russia is under to finish this. Remember also there will be other things it will be spending its money on besides war...
Where did you get $20bn per day from? $20bn per day is $133k per day for every of the 150k personnel in the Russian invasion force.
Much of the 'cost' will be on equipment and ammunition, lost and used. The cost would have been incurred in the past - sure there will be a replenishment cost but that could be at some indeterminate time in the future.
I take it back - apparently $20bn per day is bunk. It was a figure flying around on here the other day. Pity.
The suggestion was that it was mis-translation of 20 billion *Rubles* - it came from a report that the Russia military had run out (pretty much) of munitions.
Probably behind the curve but hadn’t seen this clip of Zelenskyy (posted by the Feigl no less!) which was apparently the start of his journey into fictional then real politics. Strong stuff, though perhaps not as brave as making jokes about gypsies.
At that point the best thing might be mass protests in Moscow. After all what would they have to lose.
Or one of his generals puts a bullet in his head. Whoever had the courage to do that would be the rest of the world's friend for life.
What, all 1.5 minutes of it?
That makes no sense. If someone takes out Putin there won't be a nuclear war.
Were I in the assassination for Ukraine game, and able to get it done, Lukashenko might be a more tempting target. Possible revolution and diversion of Russian forces to guarantee Belarus stays under control.
Yes, Russia must be scared that he could fall, noting what we all know about the views of his people. That would be a significant domino.
He must be terrified to have moved so swiftly to put himself much more thoroughly under Russisn control.
A new renewable energy source is being tested - drill 8 miles down and use the geothermal heat.
I saw the Cornish experiment in the mid-80s - Camborne School of Mines Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Project in the Carnmenellis granite. I believe the Eden Project is involved in experiments that way. But this new thing sounds much deeper.
There's actually a working geothermal heating system in the middle of Southampton.
"By 2007, the system had 11 km (6.8 miles) of pipes, and was producing 40 GWh of heat, 22 GWh of electricity and 8 GWh of cooling per year."
A new renewable energy source is being tested - drill 8 miles down and use the geothermal heat.
I saw the Cornish experiment in the mid-80s - Camborne School of Mines Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Project in the Carnmenellis granite. I believe the Eden Project is involved in experiments that way. But this new thing sounds much deeper.
There's actually a working geothermal heating system in the middle of Southampton.
"By 2007, the system had 11 km (6.8 miles) of pipes, and was producing 40 GWh of heat, 22 GWh of electricity and 8 GWh of cooling per year."
The biggest problem with deep geothermal has been the cost of drilling the hole. These guys are claiming to have a novel, cheap method for that. I am a bit skeptical.....
At that point the best thing might be mass protests in Moscow. After all what would they have to lose.
Or one of his generals puts a bullet in his head. Whoever had the courage to do that would be the rest of the world's friend for life.
What, all 1.5 minutes of it?
That makes no sense. If someone takes out Putin there won't be a nuclear war.
Were I in the assassination for Ukraine game, and able to get it done, Lukashenko might be a more tempting target. Possible revolution and diversion of Russian forces to guarantee Belarus stays under control.
Yes, Russia must be scared that he could fall, noting what we all know about the views of his people. That would be a significant domino.
He must be terrified to have moved so swiftly to put himself much more thoroughly under Russisn control.
..and he looked it yesterday. There was some sort of subtle warning to Putin enmeshed in his threats to the West yesterday, I think.
Germany announcing plans to build more LNG terminals and Greens looking nuclear and coal again due to the crisis.
I suspect whatever happens now they will not go back to being so reliant on RU.
Putin has self-destructed his own economy, which is total reliant on commodity export.
Russia and China agreed a 30 year gas deal via a new pipeline. This was reported by Reuters on 4 Feb. The gas sales will be settled in Euros. I suspect the timing was not a coincidence.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
When the dust settles on this, which hopefully won't be in the form of nuclear fallout, the UK will be even more isolated than before. The EU has stood tall and risen to the challenge. They are forging ahead with a brilliant unity and are likely to enlarge, working in tandem with NATO.
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
Hahahaha. Perhaps one of the most ridiculous comments of the last few weeks. Which given it is in competition with a genuine Moscow Troll is some going.
The UK - along with a select few EU countries - has led the way so far on support for Ukraine including getting in the weapons that they have been using to defend themselves whilst the EU as a whole was still prevaricating or in the case of Germany actually preventing support. The fact that the EU has finally caught up with Britain and the US is something to be delighted about but claiming they have 'stood tall' in contrast to the UK is fatuous and stupid in the extreme.
It has taken far too long but this weekend the EU finally caught up with some of the Non EU countries in realising the seriousness of the situation and doing something about it. Well done. Better late than never.
People also forget that whilst the UK were calling for the SWIFT restrictions many countries in the EU were against it.
I'm off out but this is revisionism writ large.
The UK's response on sanctions has been woeful. Not just now but historically with Putin. We have done precious little and we are still lagging on so many fronts in this regard. London has been the centre for the friends of Putin's dirty money and in the same year that Mad Vlad shot down a commercial airline, killing 283 innocent civilians including 80 children, your leader Boris Johnson played tennis with a Putin oligarch's wife for a £160,000 donation to the tory party.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
When the dust settles on this, which hopefully won't be in the form of nuclear fallout, the UK will be even more isolated than before. The EU has stood tall and risen to the challenge. They are forging ahead with a brilliant unity and are likely to enlarge, working in tandem with NATO.
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
The UK - along with a select few EU countries - has led the way .
Keep telling yourself this Richard if it makes you feel good.
Meanwhile, in the real world ...
(By the way, you'd get yourself into fewer dogfights on here if you toned down the hyperbole. But maybe that's what you enjoy doing. If so, I bid you adieu.)
Sadly you lack any self awareness. There was nothing hyperbolic in what I was writing. It was all basic facts. You either suffer from terrible short term memory loss or you are doing your best to be the EU's version of PJohnson. Either way you are fundamentally wrong in your assertions. You should leave rewriting history for the Russians. They have been doing it for much longer.
A final thought, which is not original to me. Even though they will, in all probability, lose the 'war'; perhaps the numerous stories of resistance amongst the Ukranians against Putin's invasion will become the folk tales that form the basis of a western cultural resurgence.
Hence why the troll demanding why dont they just surrender was idiotic.
A new renewable energy source is being tested - drill 8 miles down and use the geothermal heat.
I saw the Cornish experiment in the mid-80s - Camborne School of Mines Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Project in the Carnmenellis granite. I believe the Eden Project is involved in experiments that way. But this new thing sounds much deeper.
There's actually a working geothermal heating system in the middle of Southampton.
"By 2007, the system had 11 km (6.8 miles) of pipes, and was producing 40 GWh of heat, 22 GWh of electricity and 8 GWh of cooling per year."
The biggest problem with deep geothermal has been the cost of drilling the hole. These guys are claiming to have a novel, cheap method for that. I am a bit skeptical.....
From the deep, dark recesses of my mind, another issue is that unless carefully planned, they get less efficient as the extraction of hot water cools the surrounding rock faster than the heat can be replenished. Basically, you keep on needing to drill to 'get' heat into the system.
Don't know why that's different in Southampton. I think Ian West's geology website has something on it...
As an aside, if you want to dig a deep vertical tunnel, then Mikhail Tsiferov's rocket-engine tunnelling machine is perfect. Drills at five metres per minute through rock, faster through soil.
Once, by, as the song says a set of curious chances, I arrived in India with some Cambodian currency. Not a lot, fortunately. None of the banks I went to would change it and eventually I sold it to a fellow Brit in a bar. And promptly used some of the rupees he gave me to buy us both a drink!
Back when I was at university, the film society wanted to film an ad. For whatever reason this included a briefcase-full-of-cash scene. Someone at the local bank branch mentioned that there was a huge stack of South American currency (one of the hyper inflations there), for some reason - so for about £50 we filled the briefcase.
Some time later I was sent to the bank to get the film societies money back. It was half way through that I noticed that customers in the bank were staring at the sight of me emptying a briefcase of cash through the foreign exchange window.
When on Jury service many years ago I sat on an interesting case involving counterfeit notes. In the jury room we had on the table the principle exhibit, a bag containing £51,000 in dud twenties. To my eye they were indistinguishable from the real thing, although one of the jurors who worked in a bank was able to show us where they were visibly wrong.
It was about this time of year, close to the Cheltenham Festival when my requirement for surplus cash is higher than usual. I have to say I was tempted.
Peter. The only time I have had a bank note refused because it was a forgery was when I presented a £20 note I had received in winnings from a bookie at the Cheltenham festival to a barman at the festival when buying a round of drinks. So I used the dud £20 note to back a horse with the same bookie in the next race. Happily it lost! 😀
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
When the dust settles on this, which hopefully won't be in the form of nuclear fallout, the UK will be even more isolated than before. The EU has stood tall and risen to the challenge. They are forging ahead with a brilliant unity and are likely to enlarge, working in tandem with NATO.
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
The UK - along with a select few EU countries - has led the way .
Keep telling yourself this Richard if it makes you feel good.
Meanwhile, in the real world ...
(By the way, you'd get yourself into fewer dogfights on here if you toned down the hyperbole. But maybe that's what you enjoy doing. If so, I bid you adieu.)
Sadly you lack any self awareness. There was nothing hyperbolic in what I was writing. It was all basic facts. You either suffer from terrible short term memory loss or you are doing your best to be the EU's version of PJohnson. Either way you are fundamentally wrong in your assertions. You should leave rewriting history for the Russians. They have been doing it for much longer.
Until an hour before the war @Heathener was assuring us there would be no war, despite others - like me - pointing out that the US/UK intel looked utterly convincing as the Russian build-up went beyond the point of return
His ventilations about the new EU superpower must be seen in the same light. He predicts what he WANTS to happen
The warning to rich Russians linked to Putin that the UK government “will come after you” and ensure oligarchs have “nowhere to hide” is likely to hit hard at the gated luxury housing estate in Surrey dubbed “Britain’s Beverly Hills”.
Russians and those from former Soviet states own more than a quarter of the 430 luxurious homes in St George’s Hill, a heavily guarded 964-acre estate near Weybridge, Surrey, where mansions have changed hands for more than £20m each.
I'm sad to say that I think Putin is going to launch a massive bombing of Kyiv. Could involve bombs all the way up to and including nuclear.
He's gone doolally and he's running out of other military options, other than withdrawal.
(And before anyone reminds me of my worst prediction, remember that was based on the argument that I didn't think he was stupid enough because I wasn't at all convinced Russia could win this militarily.)
A new renewable energy source is being tested - drill 8 miles down and use the geothermal heat.
I saw the Cornish experiment in the mid-80s - Camborne School of Mines Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Project in the Carnmenellis granite. I believe the Eden Project is involved in experiments that way. But this new thing sounds much deeper.
There's actually a working geothermal heating system in the middle of Southampton.
"By 2007, the system had 11 km (6.8 miles) of pipes, and was producing 40 GWh of heat, 22 GWh of electricity and 8 GWh of cooling per year."
The biggest problem with deep geothermal has been the cost of drilling the hole. These guys are claiming to have a novel, cheap method for that. I am a bit skeptical.....
true but on the other hand the world has moved on and things that were previously insanely expensive are now possible due to the technology available. Let's wait and see if the scheme works or is just typical marketing bullshit (of which alternative energy has an awful lot of).
Friend of mine finally found a bunch of British pro-Putin, pro-Russian-army, “fuck Ukraine” types on Twitter - spoiling for an argument
They were all rabid Scot Nats. Hate NATO, apparently
The cheerleaders for the Kremlin are an extremely motley crew, from Fox News to Ultra Scot Nats to Farageists and Stop the War. And one of my parents.
I’m not sure I can recall an alliance like it
I think those ‘rabid Scots Nats’ are almost entirely Albanians and supporters of Salmond (an individual for whom you were a Pom Pom girl a year ago)? Presumably you’d have shared some common ground over their pro Putin stance only a couple of months ago.
I'm sad to say that I think Putin is going to launch a massive bombing of Kyiv. Could involve bombs all the way up to and including nuclear.
He's gone doolally and he's running out of other military options, other than withdrawal.
(And before anyone reminds me of my worst prediction, remember that was based on the argument that I didn't think he was stupid enough because I wasn't at all convinced Russia could win this militarily.)
I think its safe to say that if he's serious about this fight, he'll step it up as he can.
If I was Putin, and I was fighting a war against a inferior force (which the Ukrainian army is still), I would have sent in my old crappy tanks first to use them up...
A new renewable energy source is being tested - drill 8 miles down and use the geothermal heat.
I saw the Cornish experiment in the mid-80s - Camborne School of Mines Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Project in the Carnmenellis granite. I believe the Eden Project is involved in experiments that way. But this new thing sounds much deeper.
There's actually a working geothermal heating system in the middle of Southampton.
"By 2007, the system had 11 km (6.8 miles) of pipes, and was producing 40 GWh of heat, 22 GWh of electricity and 8 GWh of cooling per year."
The biggest problem with deep geothermal has been the cost of drilling the hole. These guys are claiming to have a novel, cheap method for that. I am a bit skeptical.....
From the deep, dark recesses of my mind, another issue is that unless carefully planned, they get less efficient as the extraction of hot water cools the surrounding rock faster than the heat can be replenished. Basically, you keep on needing to drill to 'get' heat into the system.
Don't know why that's different in Southampton. I think Ian West's geology website has something on it...
As an aside, if you want to dig a deep vertical tunnel, then Mikhail Tsiferov's rocket-engine tunnelling machine is perfect. Drills at five metres per minute through rock, faster through soil.
Great for shallow holes but no good for anything of any great depth. The big issue will remain the inability to get the drilled rock out of the hole. It mentions carrying fragments up to 15cm across but there is a rapid loss of lift as the cuttings get further from the source of the lift (the rocket) and eventually they will fall back and block the hole behind the device.
A new renewable energy source is being tested - drill 8 miles down and use the geothermal heat.
I saw the Cornish experiment in the mid-80s - Camborne School of Mines Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Project in the Carnmenellis granite. I believe the Eden Project is involved in experiments that way. But this new thing sounds much deeper.
There's actually a working geothermal heating system in the middle of Southampton.
"By 2007, the system had 11 km (6.8 miles) of pipes, and was producing 40 GWh of heat, 22 GWh of electricity and 8 GWh of cooling per year."
The biggest problem with deep geothermal has been the cost of drilling the hole. These guys are claiming to have a novel, cheap method for that. I am a bit skeptical.....
From the deep, dark recesses of my mind, another issue is that unless carefully planned, they get less efficient as the extraction of hot water cools the surrounding rock faster than the heat can be replenished. Basically, you keep on needing to drill to 'get' heat into the system.
Don't know why that's different in Southampton. I think Ian West's geology website has something on it...
As an aside, if you want to dig a deep vertical tunnel, then Mikhail Tsiferov's rocket-engine tunnelling machine is perfect. Drills at five metres per minute through rock, faster through soil.
I think you are right - IIRC that is to do with the maximum "load" you can put on a given hole. Which comes back to the amount of power you can get out of a given hole. Which in turn limits the minimum cost of power....
Stupid British media at it again, trying to find dividing lines over asylum policy, UK/EU relations and party funding.
There’s a bloody war on, please can they leave their pet obsessions aside for a few days, and let the politicians concentrate on what’s actually important at the moment?
A final thought, which is not original to me. Even though they will, in all probability, lose the 'war'; perhaps the numerous stories of resistance amongst the Ukranians against Putin's invasion will become the folk tales that form the basis of a western cultural resurgence.
Hence why the troll demanding why dont they just surrender was idiotic.
I'm sad to say that I think Putin is going to launch a massive bombing of Kyiv. Could involve bombs all the way up to and including nuclear.
He's gone doolally and he's running out of other military options, other than withdrawal.
(And before anyone reminds me of my worst prediction, remember that was based on the argument that I didn't think he was stupid enough because I wasn't at all convinced Russia could win this militarily.)
I think its safe to say that if he's serious about this fight, he'll step it up as he can.
If I was Putin, and I was fighting a war against a inferior force (which the Ukrainian army is still), I would have sent in my old crappy tanks first to use them up...
Stupid British media at it again, trying to find dividing lines over asylum policy or UK/EU relations.
There’s a bloody war on, please can they leave their pet obsessions aside for a few days, and let the politicians concentrate on what’s actually important at the moment?
QTWAIN.
Cometh the hour the UK, USA and EU including now Germany have all risen to this occasion. Credit to everyone in the West for that.
But that isn't an interesting story for 24/7 news media obsessed with culture wars and divisions.
I'm sad to say that I think Putin is going to launch a massive bombing of Kyiv. Could involve bombs all the way up to and including nuclear.
He's gone doolally and he's running out of other military options, other than withdrawal.
(And before anyone reminds me of my worst prediction, remember that was based on the argument that I didn't think he was stupid enough because I wasn't at all convinced Russia could win this militarily.)
On this I tend to agree with you. Sadly. The signs coming out of Ukraine are ominous. The huge armour movements. The “thermobaric” explosions. The offer of one safe escape route to Kyivans
It’s all reminiscent of Syria and Chechnya. Putin has to “win” this war, and win it soon. It has become existential for him. And he knows only one new tactic: overwhelming force
I fear he is going to obliterate Kyiv and Kharkiv, using whatever means necessary. We need that Kremlin assassin to strike now. Before lunch
max seddon @maxseddon · 40m Shares in Sberbank and Tinkoff, Russia's two most popular financial stocks among foreign investors, fell as much as 75% and 80% respectively in London today
A new renewable energy source is being tested - drill 8 miles down and use the geothermal heat.
I saw the Cornish experiment in the mid-80s - Camborne School of Mines Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Project in the Carnmenellis granite. I believe the Eden Project is involved in experiments that way. But this new thing sounds much deeper.
There's actually a working geothermal heating system in the middle of Southampton.
"By 2007, the system had 11 km (6.8 miles) of pipes, and was producing 40 GWh of heat, 22 GWh of electricity and 8 GWh of cooling per year."
The biggest problem with deep geothermal has been the cost of drilling the hole. These guys are claiming to have a novel, cheap method for that. I am a bit skeptical.....
From the deep, dark recesses of my mind, another issue is that unless carefully planned, they get less efficient as the extraction of hot water cools the surrounding rock faster than the heat can be replenished. Basically, you keep on needing to drill to 'get' heat into the system.
Don't know why that's different in Southampton. I think Ian West's geology website has something on it...
As an aside, if you want to dig a deep vertical tunnel, then Mikhail Tsiferov's rocket-engine tunnelling machine is perfect. Drills at five metres per minute through rock, faster through soil.
Great for shallow holes but no good for anything of any great depth. The big issue will remain the inability to get the drilled rock out of the hole. It mentions carrying fragments up to 15cm across but there is a rapid loss of lift as the cuttings get further from the source of the lift (the rocket) and eventually they will fall back and block the hole behind the device.
PB - a site where an expert will arrive and point out the flaws within 30 minutes.
I did wonder after watching an HS2 video yesterday where most of the work is spent liquidising the spoil to allow it to be transported away.
The warning to rich Russians linked to Putin that the UK government “will come after you” and ensure oligarchs have “nowhere to hide” is likely to hit hard at the gated luxury housing estate in Surrey dubbed “Britain’s Beverly Hills”.
Russians and those from former Soviet states own more than a quarter of the 430 luxurious homes in St George’s Hill, a heavily guarded 964-acre estate near Weybridge, Surrey, where mansions have changed hands for more than £20m each.
We have actually worked on a house there, to term it heavily guarded is pushing it a bit, there is a person sat in a hut.
A new renewable energy source is being tested - drill 8 miles down and use the geothermal heat.
I saw the Cornish experiment in the mid-80s - Camborne School of Mines Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Project in the Carnmenellis granite. I believe the Eden Project is involved in experiments that way. But this new thing sounds much deeper.
There's actually a working geothermal heating system in the middle of Southampton.
"By 2007, the system had 11 km (6.8 miles) of pipes, and was producing 40 GWh of heat, 22 GWh of electricity and 8 GWh of cooling per year."
The biggest problem with deep geothermal has been the cost of drilling the hole. These guys are claiming to have a novel, cheap method for that. I am a bit skeptical.....
The rule of thumb for geothermal gradient in the UK is 25 degrees C per Km. Hampshire and Yorkshire are much higher than that - up to double the temperature increase for every Km you go down.
The warning to rich Russians linked to Putin that the UK government “will come after you” and ensure oligarchs have “nowhere to hide” is likely to hit hard at the gated luxury housing estate in Surrey dubbed “Britain’s Beverly Hills”.
Russians and those from former Soviet states own more than a quarter of the 430 luxurious homes in St George’s Hill, a heavily guarded 964-acre estate near Weybridge, Surrey, where mansions have changed hands for more than £20m each.
At risk of being taken for a Putin-paid troll, I'm still unconvinced this is more than virtue-signalling. Oligarchs aren't running the show, and ex-Soviet states aren't Russia (don't tell Vlad). If you wanted to influence Boris to change policy, would you really start with Richard Branson?
I'm sad to say that I think Putin is going to launch a massive bombing of Kyiv. Could involve bombs all the way up to and including nuclear.
He's gone doolally and he's running out of other military options, other than withdrawal.
(And before anyone reminds me of my worst prediction, remember that was based on the argument that I didn't think he was stupid enough because I wasn't at all convinced Russia could win this militarily.)
Using a nuclear weapon on Kyiv would effect Belarus given how close the border is , Putin wouldn’t be able to hide that from the Russian public and China would not continue to support them .
The response from the west would make the current sanctions look like a walk in the park .
Putin is not a religious fanatic , he likes being alive and likes power .
The suggestion was that it was mis-translation of 20 billion *Rubles* - it came from a report that the Russia military had run out (pretty much) of munitions.
It cost more roubles today than it did yesterday...
A new renewable energy source is being tested - drill 8 miles down and use the geothermal heat.
I saw the Cornish experiment in the mid-80s - Camborne School of Mines Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Project in the Carnmenellis granite. I believe the Eden Project is involved in experiments that way. But this new thing sounds much deeper.
There's actually a working geothermal heating system in the middle of Southampton.
"By 2007, the system had 11 km (6.8 miles) of pipes, and was producing 40 GWh of heat, 22 GWh of electricity and 8 GWh of cooling per year."
The biggest problem with deep geothermal has been the cost of drilling the hole. These guys are claiming to have a novel, cheap method for that. I am a bit skeptical.....
From the deep, dark recesses of my mind, another issue is that unless carefully planned, they get less efficient as the extraction of hot water cools the surrounding rock faster than the heat can be replenished. Basically, you keep on needing to drill to 'get' heat into the system.
Don't know why that's different in Southampton. I think Ian West's geology website has something on it...
As an aside, if you want to dig a deep vertical tunnel, then Mikhail Tsiferov's rocket-engine tunnelling machine is perfect. Drills at five metres per minute through rock, faster through soil.
Great for shallow holes but no good for anything of any great depth. The big issue will remain the inability to get the drilled rock out of the hole. It mentions carrying fragments up to 15cm across but there is a rapid loss of lift as the cuttings get further from the source of the lift (the rocket) and eventually they will fall back and block the hole behind the device.
Yeah, my tongue might have been slightly in my cheek. It's just something I'd love to see working. From a safe distance...
Incidentally, Enceladus is believed to have a massive saltwater reservoir below a lot of ice. There's a plan to send a probe there that will melt its way through the ice, letting the ice freeze up behind it.
Russia's RIA-Novosti news agency accidentally published its victory piece on Saturday, and swiftly deleted it. But the web archive remembers, and oh boy (Google translate is your friend).
"Now this problem is gone - Ukraine has returned to Russia."
How much is $20bn a day for Russia? According to Wikipedia, Russia's GDP is about $1,600bn. So at this rate Russia burns through its entire GDP in under 100 days. Of course, its GDP will be negatively impacted by the war, so possibly rather sooner. I mean, I hope the war doesn't go on for 100 days - but it's an indication of the kind of pressure Russia is under to finish this. Remember also there will be other things it will be spending its money on besides war...
$20 billion a day seems unlikely. 20 billion roubles, maybe, and even then you'd wonder about marginal versus fixed costs. Russia would be paying soldiers' wages even if they had remained in their barracks, for instance.
How much of their dollar reserves are they spending daily, to prop up their own currency on the international markets?
Even with interest rates lifted to 20%, there’s still a hundred roubles to the dollar today - if you can find someone willing to sell their dollars at anything close to the official rate.
It’ll be a good day for sellers of Western cars, gold, jewelery and electronics in Moscow today, with everyone desparate to swap their roubles for something of intrinsic global value.
There are some things about the UK response to the Ukraine crisis that I'm not happy about, but people wanting to turn this into a Brexit issue forget that refugee policy, political funding and other issues where the UK is currently lacking, are not EU competencies. If we were in the EU we'd likely still be lacking in our response in those ways.
Has Germany just joined the EU? Is that why its foreign policy towards Russia has massively changed? No. Germany has been a member of the EU throughout.
What has changed is an increased political will to take action, and the shattering of illusions that confrontation with Putin could be avoided.
I'm pro-EU. One of the things I'm trying to do recently is to learn to play Ode to Joy on the Viola (I'm at the level of playing twinkle twinkle little star badly). Brexit is at most a third-order issue in terms of the UK response. What's most important is political will and judgement.
Stupid British media at it again, trying to find dividing lines over asylum policy, UK/EU relations and party funding.
There’s a bloody war on, please can they leave their pet obsessions aside for a few days, and let the politicians concentrate on what’s actually important at the moment?
I think in this case there is a reasonable claim to be made that we have been too slow in offering refuge. We should have had this sorted out days ago. And so far our response has been extremely poor on this side of things. I would hope and expect that we will follow the EU lead on this today.
I think they'll already be communicating with each other in some way off record, and with the oligarchs.
I think this misunderstands the oligarchs position. The deal is Putin allows them to rob Russia blind in exchange for complete political non involvement, on pain of polonium or 30 years in prison. They just aren't in any useful loop.
The warning to rich Russians linked to Putin that the UK government “will come after you” and ensure oligarchs have “nowhere to hide” is likely to hit hard at the gated luxury housing estate in Surrey dubbed “Britain’s Beverly Hills”.
Russians and those from former Soviet states own more than a quarter of the 430 luxurious homes in St George’s Hill, a heavily guarded 964-acre estate near Weybridge, Surrey, where mansions have changed hands for more than £20m each.
We have actually worked on a house there, to term it heavily guarded is pushing it a bit, there is a person sat in a hut.
I'm sad to say that I think Putin is going to launch a massive bombing of Kyiv. Could involve bombs all the way up to and including nuclear.
He's gone doolally and he's running out of other military options, other than withdrawal.
(And before anyone reminds me of my worst prediction, remember that was based on the argument that I didn't think he was stupid enough because I wasn't at all convinced Russia could win this militarily.)
On this I tend to agree with you. Sadly. The signs coming out of Ukraine are ominous. The huge armour movements. The “thermobaric” explosions. The offer of one safe escape route to Kyivans
It’s all reminiscent of Syria and Chechnya. Putin has to “win” this war, and win it soon. It has become existential for him. And he knows only one new tactic: overwhelming force
I fear he is going to obliterate Kyiv and Kharkiv, using whatever means necessary. We need that Kremlin assassin to strike now. Before lunch
Putin isn’t in the Kremlin though is he. He’s in a nuclear bunker under the Urals. Those waiting for a (successful) Valkyrie moment to solve this nightmare are likely to be disappointed.
I think they'll already be communicating with each other in some way off record, and with the oligarchs.
I think this misunderstands the oligarchs position. The deal is Putin allows them to rob Russia blind in exchange for complete political non involvement, on pain of polonium or 30 years in prison. They just aren't in any useful loop.
But the deal's broken. They're losing money, right left and centre.
Stupid British media at it again, trying to find dividing lines over asylum policy, UK/EU relations and party funding.
There’s a bloody war on, please can they leave their pet obsessions aside for a few days, and let the politicians concentrate on what’s actually important at the moment?
A clever government would've pointed out that our military assistance is the best way to mitigate a refugee crisis.
"Typical defeatism by the left - our plan is for most Ukrainians to feel no need to leave during a successful defense of their country"
(I don't agree with that, btw, but that would be the spin I'd go for).
Throughout this campaign, the world has certainly learnt one thing: Ukraine is a place full of the craziest fun people. Not just the guy carrying the mine, but the guy standing next to him filming it! As they laugh about it....
They also seem bright and reasonably cheery under the circumstances. I know the news channels choose those that speak English but still you warm to them. I had a Ukrainian fixing a window for me last week and he was the same. Bright sparky and trilingual (his wife is Portuguese). God I miss being in the EU.
Stupid British media at it again, trying to find dividing lines over asylum policy or UK/EU relations.
There’s a bloody war on, please can they leave their pet obsessions aside for a few days, and let the politicians concentrate on what’s actually important at the moment?
QTWAIN.
Cometh the hour the UK, USA and EU including now Germany have all risen to this occasion. Credit to everyone in the West for that.
But that isn't an interesting story for 24/7 news media obsessed with culture wars and divisions.
First, there are huge swathes of government not involved in sending anti-tank weapons to Ukraine. Britain does not stop because there is a war on. Second, let's not congratulate ourselves too prematurely: Russia might still win (for some value of win).
The warning to rich Russians linked to Putin that the UK government “will come after you” and ensure oligarchs have “nowhere to hide” is likely to hit hard at the gated luxury housing estate in Surrey dubbed “Britain’s Beverly Hills”.
Russians and those from former Soviet states own more than a quarter of the 430 luxurious homes in St George’s Hill, a heavily guarded 964-acre estate near Weybridge, Surrey, where mansions have changed hands for more than £20m each.
We have actually worked on a house there, to term it heavily guarded is pushing it a bit, there is a person sat in a hut.
A new renewable energy source is being tested - drill 8 miles down and use the geothermal heat.
I saw the Cornish experiment in the mid-80s - Camborne School of Mines Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Project in the Carnmenellis granite. I believe the Eden Project is involved in experiments that way. But this new thing sounds much deeper.
There's actually a working geothermal heating system in the middle of Southampton.
"By 2007, the system had 11 km (6.8 miles) of pipes, and was producing 40 GWh of heat, 22 GWh of electricity and 8 GWh of cooling per year."
The biggest problem with deep geothermal has been the cost of drilling the hole. These guys are claiming to have a novel, cheap method for that. I am a bit skeptical.....
From the deep, dark recesses of my mind, another issue is that unless carefully planned, they get less efficient as the extraction of hot water cools the surrounding rock faster than the heat can be replenished. Basically, you keep on needing to drill to 'get' heat into the system.
Don't know why that's different in Southampton. I think Ian West's geology website has something on it...
As an aside, if you want to dig a deep vertical tunnel, then Mikhail Tsiferov's rocket-engine tunnelling machine is perfect. Drills at five metres per minute through rock, faster through soil.
Great for shallow holes but no good for anything of any great depth. The big issue will remain the inability to get the drilled rock out of the hole. It mentions carrying fragments up to 15cm across but there is a rapid loss of lift as the cuttings get further from the source of the lift (the rocket) and eventually they will fall back and block the hole behind the device.
Yeah, my tongue might have been slightly in my cheek. It's just something I'd love to see working. From a safe distance...
If you just want to ram a hole in the ground, Ted Taylor was of the opinion that he could design a nuclear shaped charge that would dig a tunnel 1000 feet long by 10-20 feet.
Friend of mine finally found a bunch of British pro-Putin, pro-Russian-army, “fuck Ukraine” types on Twitter - spoiling for an argument
They were all rabid Scot Nats. Hate NATO, apparently
The cheerleaders for the Kremlin are an extremely motley crew, from Fox News to Ultra Scot Nats to Farageists and Stop the War. And one of my parents.
I’m not sure I can recall an alliance like it
Amazing! What are the chances, eh?
Are you sure they weren't rabid woke Remoaners as well?
(PS How dumb are you to fall for this shit?)
My friend wasn’t lying. This is just tiresome. There is a strand of Scot Nat opinion which has been so warped by its hatred of Trident, NATO, Britain, it’s ended up supporting Putin
The Scot Nats (note, I didn’t say SNP) are hardly alone in this. Elements of the UKIP right, Labour left, and my family, have all ended up in this same absurd, contorted position, because of fiercely held prior beliefs which have been overtaken by events. It’s a fascinating quirk of human psychology
Russia's RIA-Novosti news agency accidentally published its victory piece on Saturday, and swiftly deleted it. But the web archive remembers, and oh boy (Google translate is your friend).
"Now this problem is gone - Ukraine has returned to Russia."
The warning to rich Russians linked to Putin that the UK government “will come after you” and ensure oligarchs have “nowhere to hide” is likely to hit hard at the gated luxury housing estate in Surrey dubbed “Britain’s Beverly Hills”.
Russians and those from former Soviet states own more than a quarter of the 430 luxurious homes in St George’s Hill, a heavily guarded 964-acre estate near Weybridge, Surrey, where mansions have changed hands for more than £20m each.
Seize the ones owned by Putin's pals and use the money to buy weapons for the Ukrainians and help Ukrainian refugees.
Comments
Only with the UK and Turkish militaries alongside through NATO does it even match the size of the Russian military.
Germany also does not have nuclear weapons unlike us and the Russians. Only France in the EU does but they do not have as long a range as Trident
Stop defending the indefensible.
"In #Berdyansk, a man removed a mine from under a bridge."
https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/status/1497937454573232132?s=20&t=SjM6i2CPtJH-xDBzbjZLsg
https://news.sky.com
Maybe the Anonymous hackers can put this on every TV screen in Russia.
Ultimately we Europhiles have two options. Take the bewailing the 2016 tragedy line or persuade people to reverse the decision. The two are not compatible in my view.
One of the things that will come out of this crisis, assuming we avoid Armageddon, is a chance to show that cooperation with Europe is the only way forward. That’s the sort of positive spin we need. Belittling the U.K. at this stage serves no purpose. That referendum is over. Talk of future “tragedy” and the constant Twitter talk of how “ashamed” we are of the U.K. as a result of it (and otherwise) is a tactic we have been at for over 6 years now and has got us absolutely nowhere.
I suspect whatever happens now they will not go back to being so reliant on RU.
Putin has self-destructed his own economy, which is total reliant on commodity export.
Ursula VDL, the President of the European Commission, did of course run the German Military as Defence Minister from 2013 to 2019 in Mutti Merkel's Government.
What's your view of how that went?
The UK - along with a select few EU countries - has led the way so far on support for Ukraine including getting in the weapons that they have been using to defend themselves whilst the EU as a whole was still prevaricating or in the case of Germany actually preventing support. The fact that the EU has finally caught up with Britain and the US is something to be delighted about but claiming they have 'stood tall' in contrast to the UK is fatuous and stupid in the extreme.
It has taken far too long but this weekend the EU finally caught up with some of the Non EU countries in realising the seriousness of the situation and doing something about it. Well done. Better late than never.
It was about this time of year, close to the Cheltenham Festival when my requirement for surplus cash is higher than usual. I have to say I was tempted.
I hope NZ offer him asylum when he decides to retire.
Meanwhile, in the real world ...
(By the way, you'd get yourself into fewer dogfights on here if you toned down the hyperbole. But maybe that's what you enjoy doing. If so, I bid you adieu.)
That would sort out FIFA.
People also forget that whilst the UK were calling for the SWIFT restrictions many countries in the EU were against it.
"By 2007, the system had 11 km (6.8 miles) of pipes, and was producing 40 GWh of heat, 22 GWh of electricity and 8 GWh of cooling per year."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southampton_District_Energy_Scheme
Pity.
The UK's response on sanctions has been woeful. Not just now but historically with Putin. We have done precious little and we are still lagging on so many fronts in this regard. London has been the centre for the friends of Putin's dirty money and in the same year that Mad Vlad shot down a commercial airline, killing 283 innocent civilians including 80 children, your leader Boris Johnson played tennis with a Putin oligarch's wife for a £160,000 donation to the tory party.
Even now, one of your Conservative peers is up to his eyes in the dirty Putin money:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/27/conservative-peer-lord-barker-urged-quit-board-russian-firm-en-oligarch-oleg-deripaska
The Conservative Party since 2010 has stunk on the issue of Putin's money. So spare me the moral high ground guff.
They were all rabid Scot Nats. Hate NATO, apparently
The cheerleaders for the Kremlin are an extremely motley crew, from Fox News to Ultra Scot Nats to Farageists and Stop the War. And one of my parents.
I’m not sure I can recall an alliance like it
Don't know why that's different in Southampton. I think Ian West's geology website has something on it...
As an aside, if you want to dig a deep vertical tunnel, then Mikhail Tsiferov's rocket-engine tunnelling machine is perfect. Drills at five metres per minute through rock, faster through soil.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underground_rocket
His ventilations about the new EU superpower must be seen in the same light. He predicts what he WANTS to happen
(Initially typed as UKraine. Which I rather like. Just - don't anyone tell Boris. He'll have a 50p coin with that on by tea-time....)
The warning to rich Russians linked to Putin that the UK government “will come after you” and ensure oligarchs have “nowhere to hide” is likely to hit hard at the gated luxury housing estate in Surrey dubbed “Britain’s Beverly Hills”.
Russians and those from former Soviet states own more than a quarter of the 430 luxurious homes in St George’s Hill, a heavily guarded 964-acre estate near Weybridge, Surrey, where mansions have changed hands for more than £20m each.
I'm sad to say that I think Putin is going to launch a massive bombing of Kyiv. Could involve bombs all the way up to and including nuclear.
He's gone doolally and he's running out of other military options, other than withdrawal.
(And before anyone reminds me of my worst prediction, remember that was based on the argument that I didn't think he was stupid enough because I wasn't at all convinced Russia could win this militarily.)
Are you sure they weren't rabid woke Remoaners as well?
(PS How dumb are you to fall for this shit?)
If I was Putin, and I was fighting a war against a inferior force (which the Ukrainian army is still), I would have sent in my old crappy tanks first to use them up...
Maybe that's what he's done.
WINNING HERE
There’s a bloody war on, please can they leave their pet obsessions aside for a few days, and let the politicians concentrate on what’s actually important at the moment?
An open letter written by five historians denounced the war and called on Beijing to make its stance clearer"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/they-were-fooled-by-putin-chinese-historians-speak-out-against-russian-invasion
Ukrainian soldiers re-enacting "Reply of the Zaporozhian Cossacks", which is the 17th century equivalent of "go fuck yourself, Russian warship" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reply_of_the_Zaporozhian_Cossacks).
Cometh the hour the UK, USA and EU including now Germany have all risen to this occasion. Credit to everyone in the West for that.
But that isn't an interesting story for 24/7 news media obsessed with culture wars and divisions.
It’s all reminiscent of Syria and Chechnya. Putin has to “win” this war, and win it soon. It has become existential for him. And he knows only one new tactic: overwhelming force
I fear he is going to obliterate Kyiv and Kharkiv, using whatever means necessary. We need that Kremlin assassin to strike now. Before lunch
2.7 elderly angry men in bicycle clips and corduroys. Well, not literally, but you know the kind of moon howlers.
@maxseddon
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40m
Shares in Sberbank and Tinkoff, Russia's two most popular financial stocks among foreign investors, fell as much as 75% and 80% respectively in London today
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498221510342885379
I did wonder after watching an HS2 video yesterday where most of the work is spent liquidising the spoil to allow it to be transported away.
The response from the west would make the current sanctions look like a walk in the park .
Putin is not a religious fanatic , he likes being alive and likes power .
Incidentally, Enceladus is believed to have a massive saltwater reservoir below a lot of ice. There's a plan to send a probe there that will melt its way through the ice, letting the ice freeze up behind it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IceMole
@alistaircoleman
https://twitter.com/alistaircoleman/status/1498205169514856448
Russia's RIA-Novosti news agency accidentally published its victory piece on Saturday, and swiftly deleted it. But the web archive remembers, and oh boy (Google translate is your friend).
"Now this problem is gone - Ukraine has returned to Russia."
https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html
Even with interest rates lifted to 20%, there’s still a hundred roubles to the dollar today - if you can find someone willing to sell their dollars at anything close to the official rate.
It’ll be a good day for sellers of Western cars, gold, jewelery and electronics in Moscow today, with everyone desparate to swap their roubles for something of intrinsic global value.
Has Germany just joined the EU? Is that why its foreign policy towards Russia has massively changed? No. Germany has been a member of the EU throughout.
What has changed is an increased political will to take action, and the shattering of illusions that confrontation with Putin could be avoided.
I'm pro-EU. One of the things I'm trying to do recently is to learn to play Ode to Joy on the Viola (I'm at the level of playing twinkle twinkle little star badly). Brexit is at most a third-order issue in terms of the UK response. What's most important is political will and judgement.
"Typical defeatism by the left - our plan is for most Ukrainians to feel no need to leave during a successful defense of their country"
(I don't agree with that, btw, but that would be the spin I'd go for).
The Scot Nats (note, I didn’t say SNP) are hardly alone in this. Elements of the UKIP right, Labour left, and my family, have all ended up in this same absurd, contorted position, because of fiercely held prior beliefs which have been overtaken by events. It’s a fascinating quirk of human psychology