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In the betting, the money goes on Putin surviving – politicalbetting.com
In the betting, the money goes on Putin surviving – politicalbetting.com
When this market first appeared a couple of days ago punters were giving the Russian leader an 80% chance of survival. Since then things seem to be going his way and it is becoming harder to see a change within a couple of months.
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Not betting until we see how that plays out. The money men behind without money have no reason to keep him in place.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1498061258263863296?s=20&t=u4MPl-xXHhkS_qoK0M1dUA
Do we still call them A-bombs though? I'm not down with the kidz and could not find Faslane on a map.
The only stable outcomes of this situation involve Putin not being in power.
For all HYUFD goes on about realpolitik, he's basically defending the position of a man whose approach to international relations is to spread propaganda about gays and Jews corrupting the West and how Russia is the last bastion of Christian purity. I mean, if that's not a moral crusade, and a lunatic one too, then what is? Realpolitik and Putin are polar opposites.
HYUFD is really all over the place here. He has no idea, absolutely no fucking clue at all, what he's talking about and it's kind of embarrassing to see it. I normally take pleasure in shooting his stupider arguments out of the barrel, but honestly, this Putinist turn is just a bit sad and tawdry.
Yokes said:
Maybe time to look at the off ramps.
Weeks ago I mentioned that the Russians left themselves few such avenues because the demands were simply not acceptable but there were also some potential wins. Lets bear in mind what the objectives could be that could be claimed as successes.
1. LPR & DPR recognition/ absorption. This is de facto anyway. The problem comes with the idea if that the territory that defines those two is bigger than they are now
2. Weaken the Ukrainian military to such a state that it represents no threat to the LPR & DPR. Open question here, will require more conflict but clearly this current conflict degrades the Ukrainian military
3. Take NATO membership off the table. This is viable, even if not in a written agreement, it could be claimed in practice because if that kind of trouble is the price for it, maybe Ukraine & NATO will think twice.
Some thinking out there that Putin may accept something to bail. Remember the publicly stated objectives of the Kremlin can be seen as a bit vague, plus the Russian military are stretched here, they have committed two thirds of their in-theater ground forces so far, and those in-theater forces represent about 70% of their standing army combat power.
One thing though, Ukraine would be mad to accept a ceasefire for a short period with positions in place unless there is clear sense of an agreement. That will potentially give Russia the chance to shore up its tail which has proven a problem for them
PtP says...
1. Agreed.
2. Yes, I can see that, although it's problematic, as you indicate.
3. I don't know why NATO membership was ever on the table. Was never going to happen and was never necessary.
Not sure I agree a ceasefire necessarily helps Russia. It's isolated internationally and the war is an economic disaster. Russia surely needs a short war?
Without censoring them, one would really hope that the UK Govt could find a way to rein them in a bit. It's profoundly unhelpful IMO. Not a time for headlines like this, whatever your views on the best course of action or Putin's state of mind.
Edit: Actually the world's airlines should send him free offers of such a thing.
'RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK ORDERS MARKET PLAYERS TO REJECT FOREIGN CLIENTS' BIDS TO SELL RUSSIAN SECURITIES FROM 0400 GMT ON FEB 28 — CENTRAL BANK DOCUMENT SEEN BY REUTERS'
Moscow Exchange website down as well. This move, as I understand it effectively makes the market junk for foreign investors.
This is going to be spectacular, and the anti-war protests will be of a completely different magnitude once it hits the bank accounts.
"Boris Johnson has accused Russian news channel RT of "peddling" material that is "doing a lot of damage to the truth".
Now you have to admit this is a topic on which Boris is something of an expert.
Nite all. Sleep well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IV4IjHz2yIo
BREAKING - The Russian central bank has ordered market players to reject foreign clients' bids to sell Russian securities from 0400 GMT on Monday, according to a central bank document seen by Reuters.
The bank did not reply to a Reuters request for comment.
https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498060945070956551
I don't know much about these things, but apparently this constitutes a prohibition on foreigners selling any Russian investments (e.g. that BP stake in Rosneft,) effectively ending outside investment in the Russian economy. I am assuming that existing investments are then frozen unless a Russian domestic buyer can be found for them, or perhaps until they are confiscated, rendering at least some of them effectively worthless.
The Western alliance has started the process of unhooking Russia from the global financial system; it appears that the Russians themselves are finishing the job.
In happier times he once sang 'Blueberry Hill' in English at some sort of charity fundraiser (footage from RT here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IV4IjHz2yIo).
Though it now rather pales in comparison to Zelensky voicing Paddington Bear, winning Strictly, or playing the piano like... that.
Not sure that Johnson will be unhappy with that message tonight. "Putin must fail" is his mantra these days.
It is not being pro Putin to want to avoid the UK being drawn into a nuclear war.
Which based on Putin's statements there would be at least a 50% chance of if we went to war with Russia over Ukraine, a non NATO nation.
I support economic sanctions against Putin, I do not support war unless he goes beyond Ukraine and invades NATO nations
Many of us ARE praying tonight, for everyone involved to return to their loved ones, EXCEPT crazy Putin and his sick minded cronies.
If you knew what prayer is and possessed just a morsel of compassion or love for people, you could never have allowed yourself to type and post that. Even if you are on another side in an argument, you must stop yourself thinking and feeling like a compassionless and spiteful propagandist. It’s the most insulting post I have ever read on this site, and I’ve read billions.
I am going to give it my first ever flag, and you deserve it! 😡
We didn't spend 40 years going through the Cold war, ultimately welcoming the fall of the Berlin wall and the emergence of democracy in the Baltics, just to happily accept some ex KGB officer reversing it all 20-30 years later.
Besides, we can use Ukraine cleverly, as our enemies have used our mistakes against us. Get Putin bogged down in an unwiinnable war of insurrection and chaos. Weaken his regime. Bingo he goes. Job done. No nukes fired
Apprentice: Trump
HIGNFY: Boris
Stars in their Eyes: Putin
I wonder if he is secretly knocking it back
As far as I can see, the options suggested by pb.com are (1) a palace coup by those surrounding him, (2) assassination by the West somehow, (3) massive uprising by the Russian population.
None of these look likely in the short term. (1) and (2) are unquantifiable in terms of probability, but if they are tried and fail ... I shudder to think of the consequences.
Optimistically, (3) is maybe possible on the timescale of ~ months if things go very badly in Russia.
Response from more than one BJ fan has been to call me (I paraphrase) wrongheaded.
Now another notable supporter of Prime Minister endorses the gist of Putin's argument, in name of (supposed) realpolitik.
Ok, so which is it?
Or, like your Fearless Leader, do you wanna have it all ways? Have your cake, eat it AND bust-up the bakery?
Sanctioned Russian TV Host Cries About Losing Italian Properties
The impact of Putin’s war against Ukraine is starting to set in, startling even his most ardent state TV propagandists. It’s all fun and games 'till they seize your Italian villa.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/sanctioned-russian-tv-host-vladimir-soloviev-cries-about-losing-his-italian-villa
Either you know that Putin won't stop at Ukraine, in which case all you're doing is emboldening the Kremlin... or you don't realise that his Eurasian strategy has talked about EXACTLY THIS kind of unilateral annexation of former Russian Empire states.
Whether you're attempting to sell out Ukraine for a few weeks of feeling less anxious, or you're ignorant of what Putin stands for despite the long pattern of his actions, I don't know. I suspect your are ignorant and that is also the most charitable reading. But either way, you're badly, badly wrong.
Incidentally, I think it's time to remind everyone what you said a few short days ago. In order to defend some rubbish or other you'd come out with, you ended up claiming that Russia is a democracy. That there is your level of ignorance or delusion on the subject. You are massively and tragically out of your depth here.
And the narrative that he's a loser is taking hold, rapidly. Ukraine has been really smart in pushing that narrative. Of course it's too early to tell for sure, and things may look different in a couple of days, with things getting much more brutal. Still, at the moment he's very much on the defensive.
3 emboldens and informs the potential perpetrators of 1 the way the wind is blowing in the country.
Tomorrow is economic meltdown in RU.
'During Friday’s edition of The Evening With Vladimir Soloviev, the host raged: “I was told that Europe is a citadel of rights, that everything is permitted, that’s what they said… I know from personal experience about the so-called ‘sacred property rights.’ With every transaction I was bringing paperwork demonstrating my official salary, income, I did it all. I bought it, paid crazy amount of taxes, I did everything. And suddenly someone makes a decision that this journalist is now on the list of sanctions. And right away it affects your real estate. Wait a minute. But you told us that Europe has sacred property rights!”'
SSI - No wonder HYUFD is so solicitous, considering that "sacred property rights!" are at stake!
At some point you have to answer this: at what point would you go to a UK boots-on-the-ground war, or outright nuclear war, with Putin? And how would you sell that to the British people?
For Ukraine you would have almost zero support. For most of eastern Europe, the same. Maybe a sentimental vote for Poland - but small. And the British people are wise. The best thing we can do is arm the East and Ukraine and subvert Putin in other ways.
It's only when you reach core western Europe - Germany, Holland, Italy, France, that the British people might want to commit troops, and its only when you reach Britain herself (or America) that Britain would resort, with public backing, to nuclear threats and missiles.
Meanwhile the former Russian central banker Alekashenko says that the RCB has indeed attempted to limit sales of Russian securities, as per Reuter report…
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1498073881122426886
https://twitter.com/saleksashenko/status/1498068219441160194?s=21
Surely you can fill in the gap.
There is no winning outcome for Putin personally.
He is yesterdays man.
Nobody in Russia, civilian, military or oligarch will want to associate with the deranged murdering loser in a few days time.
The simplest way to explain what’s going on in #Ukraine is just say: “It is a David vs Goliath situation”. Clear to everyone, plus you know who will win 😉.
But what I like the most, how after the battle David became a king and built a strong state. This is what we will do.
https://twitter.com/kiraincongress/status/1498074258282590222
I thought the market was up on Friday because Russia was winning and it was going to be a quick end to the war?
Boris is a serial liar and a cheat, a lazy individual who thinks he can wing it and doesn't show any leadership, but AFAIK all the evidence is everything is about Boris career progression / saving his own behind when he has been caught breaking the rules. He hasn't even done a good job of enriching himself, despite all the opportunities to do so.
I can see how people think Trump is a Putinist, but things like Brexit, Boris calculation was all about his idea backing Leave was best for his career.
Though no buyers for the Russian stuff tommorow. No one will touch it now.
Russia’s FX reserves slip from its grasp
https://twitter.com/FT/status/1498072586399399937
If the S&P is down more percentage-wise than the MOEX on Monday, then you win. Otherwise, I win.
Shall we say £10?
Edit to add: in theory the MOEX should do very well on Monday, as the Ruble is collapsing and the major market constituents are all USD earners.
I might even buy some Russian stocks myself.
$DJIA +2.51%
$SPX +2.24%
$IXIC +1.64%
$FTSE +3.91%
$DAX +3.67%
$CAC +3.55%
SPI Futures +152pts
https://twitter.com/RedLeafSec/status/1498061776357060609?t=SaHA7dpuF0W6UxsMsOIDag&s=19
Global: MilitaryInfo
@Global_Mil_Info
According to the Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Russia has completely stopped moving towards Kyiv in some directions and even some units are withdrawing.
11:16 PM · Feb 27, 2022·Twitter Web App
https://twitter.com/Global_Mil_Info/status/1498074716246052864
Beyond that, I don't really care. I don't necessarily think it's likely in the short term either.
There would be a visceral thrill in (3) happening. I do like a good pro-democracy revolution, but I'd like to know it would succeed before I got excited about one beginning. Failed revolutions tend to be very, very unhappy events indeed.
The ideal would seem to be (1). Putin is shuffled into a very small room indeed, and a reform-minded person takes over and shifts Russia towards a more sensible stance. That's a reasonable hope.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUpUJdhKglo
Greater Russia won't be so great.
Russian banks will not have enough liquid cash to settle accounts.
Russian Central Bank could lend money, but its accounts are frozen.
A lot depends on whether depositors/creditors accept rouble IOUs.
https://www.ft.com/content/0bd34bcd-52d9-4cff-9f81-33069a1851a3
Wendy Rogers
@WendyRogersAZ
·
9h
I nominate President Trump to broker a truce between Zelensky and Putin. We don’t want World War III.
A Senior Advisor the the EU: 'Flying in #Ukraine skies within the hour.' In response to "EU countries will provide 'fighter jets' to Ukraine under Brussels funding: Borrell".
That 3.5 mile convoy looking mighty unsafe all of a sudden.
Something has to wake the population up to the mentally ill whacko they have running the country.
H-Bombs use an A-Bomb to stick start *fusing* atoms to together. Though, to complicate things they also generally include a lot of atom *splitting*. The term Hydrogen Bomb comes from the fact that the atoms they fuse are either/or tritium and deuterium - which are isotopes of hydrogen.
All except the smallest weapons (which the West doesn't bother with anymore) are H-bombs.
I hope that you were at least smart enough to insist that your contract wasn't in roubles.
I'm not sure he finds the notion of Christian purity etc as off-putting as you and I do.
Night all, play nice with each other!
As you all know, I'm quite hawkish on this stuff but given Putin had lost it, I wonder how wise it is.
I think we should help the Ukrainians as quietly as possible. All this trumpeting of it by the EU, followed by a Highway of Death scenario, might push him over the edge.
Now the Tories taking donations from some Russian ex-pats, that looks bad, but that was also happening before Boris was in charge. All Political parties in the UK have over the years been quite happy to take money from less than desirable folk. And wider institutions in finance and property have turned a blind eye to origins of Russian money, without being Putin apologists, in the same way they have taken Gaddafi or Saudi money.
With Trump at least we can point to actual evidence that he has said / done favourable things for Putin.
Let's hope they're paying you in dollars rather than roubles. Perhaps you should step away from the keyboard and run off to the ATM right now..
It is pathetic, delusional EU nonsense, and if it happens the EU will get Putin threatening fire and brimstone over Brussels. Who will fly these planes? From where? How? When? Why?
The EU is posturing. The willpower is not there. Probably for the best as it could kick off WW3