Apparently the Ukrainians have launched a substantive flanking ambush on a large Russian column NW of Kiev.
This is becoming a problem. Where is the helicopter and fast jet cover?
That three mile column has to get up a narrow road. A few halted vehicles from combat or even breakdown makes for a mighty traffic jam. Not easy to bypass either in the marshes.
That it isn't a three mile scrap metal yard makes me wonder if that is a negotiating position delivered by the Ukranian government.
"Turn it round and go home in the next 12 hours - or you won't need those mobile crematoria....You know we can deliver on this threat."
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells @SkyNews that unless properly trained, Brits are better off helping Ukraine by other means than travelling there to fight, watering down what Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said Sunday https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1498195752111255561
I'm no government cheerleader but Truss was not asked about who should go. She answered the question given and Wallace's comments are 100% compliant with her answer.
People who know Putin best are most worried about the nuclear threat according to the former US Ambassador to Moscow. Is it possible that if Putin has failed to get what he wants, he's prepared to take the world with him?
At that point the best thing might be mass protests in Moscow. After all what would they have to lose.
With respect to tlg86 you are, in a very important sense, absolutely right. Of course this is at the moment predominantly about Ukraine.
However, with Putin's state of mind and his recent threats it could escalate very quickly. And with nearly all of the newspapers leading with the Nuclear headline (not just the tabloids but the broadsheets) it seems fairly reasonable that Sky News should lead with that question.
And after all the UK's defence minister is a minor player in Ukraine's fight for survival.
If the west wanted a low cost way of causing massive financial uncertainty in Russia I am surprised they haven't deployed one of the UK most effective spreaders of misinformation and a man who single handed caused a run on a bank.....step forward Prof Robert Peston, Ukraine needs you.
He, and AEP at the Telegraph are being held in reserve. As Truss says, you still need some shots in your locker.
Speaking as a lurker, PJohnson needs to be banned. They're clearly a troll, as exhibited by the IP address reveal of them from a spam farm.
The justification to not ban is not valid. Why? Because while those posting on this site may well be well-informed enough to speak against, those READING AND VIEWING this site are far more. From my own experience I have spoken to several people who actively read this site and it's comments and do not reply nor register an account.
With this in mind, I ACTIVELY ENCOURAGE for PJohnson to be banned. This is part of their disinformation campaign and while the active posters here may not fall for it, some of those reading it MAY.
May I suggest as one of your first posts here you do not try and get other posters banned.
PJohnson is perfectly entitled to express his view, even if not a popular one, as long as he expresses it in a civil fashion
I suspect @PJohnson is a "they", rather than a "he"
The Russians are employing non-binary trolls these days? How the world has changed.
Raising interest rates by 10.5 percentage point seems to have bought slightly more than 50 minutes of strength before the ruble when back to where it was
But important not to lose sight that the government have shown enormous courage in leading public opinion over Ukraine. Support for military action of any kind is very lukewarm in this country. Their proactive stance has, it appears, fundamentally changed the world and arrested the decadant and cowardly stance of much of Europe. Boris Johnson has become an unlikely folk hero in Ukraine. The issue of refugees is one where concessions can be made to public opinion without losing ground on the 'bigger picture'. The action they need to take is on visas for people with family (or other close) connections.
That was the position “announced”last night (30 or so hours after the EU announced the same) except the actual detail didn’t match the announcement and basically only allows immediate blood relatives
Worth remembering: Putin came to power in 1999 in the wake of Russia's 1998 currency crisis. His political foundation is his supposed restoration of order after the Yeltsin-era disarray of 1990s ("The main thing we have achieved is stability", Putin has said). No longer.https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1498194362085384195
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells @SkyNews that unless properly trained, Brits are better off helping Ukraine by other means than travelling there to fight, watering down what Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said Sunday https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1498195752111255561
He's right. I'd note, though, that Ukraine has a legal mechanism (in place since 2015) for foreign fighters to join their armed forces. There's even a 3 year path to citizenship.
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.
LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.
Bigger LOL at what’s about to happen as the markets in Moscow open. ATMs in Russia out of cash already, and banks unofficially selling dollars at double the official exchange rate. Let’s see how long those currency reserves last, in the face of an international assault on the ruble.
For an invasion that was supposed to depend on speed, this isn't very speedy.
Basically the Ukraine’s military was a basket case in 2014 but it isn’t now. And Russia weren’t paying attention.
Also when you have 1 or 2 target cities in a country with a population of 1-3 million it’s easy to use shock and awe.
That’s not so easy with a country of 44 million and multiple cities - basically Russia bit off more than it can chew and once Ukraine fought back doesn’t have a plan.
It genuinely does appear that the Russian planners thought they’d be greeted with flags waving and happy people, cheering them on all the way to Kiev - much as happened in Crimea and parts of the Donbass eight years ago.
They missed the bit about the NATO countries sending weapons and training for the past few months, and Zelensky making it quite clear that an invasion would be countered in the strongest possible way.
They tried the soft invasion, and it’s resulted in nothing but thousands of casualties and destroyed equipment. They now have a choice, to either back off or start bombing the hell out of Ukraine - with the background of their home economy being crippled by sanctions, and almost no domestic support for the action. It’s going to be fingers very much crossed for the next few days, that common sense might prevail.
Idiot Russian MP on R4 this morning still arguing it's all to save the people from a fascist regime.
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
What sort of army has to ask for directions, or rely on road signs?
One that has forgotten to issue the right maps because they were overconfident.
One reason why the French army was beaten at Sedan in 1871 was Napoleon III was so confident of victory he'd only given out maps of Prussia, not France. His army got hopelessly lost and divided and it was easy for the Prussians to surround it.
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
Do some people really think that the difference between Putin deciding to destroy the world or not is really going to come down to the technicalities of NATO membership?
Had Ukraine not tried to join NATO Putin would likely not have invaded it in the first place.
NATO should not have tried to absorb the old nations of the USSR
You're on the wrong side.
It's also stupid. Putin has said time and again he wants to re-establish a greater Russian empire. He's said Ukraine isn't a real country. Sovereignty is whatever he decides it is when he feels like it. Did Zelensky going on about Nato membership push him over the edge? Possibly. But the fundamental problem was always there. He demands submission. Ukrainians will never submit to his rule.
Exactly right. The only stable outcomes of this situation involve Putin not being in power. For all HYUFD goes on about realpolitik, he's basically defending the position of a man whose approach to international relations is to spread propaganda about gays and Jews corrupting the West and how Russia is the last bastion of Christian purity. I mean, if that's not a moral crusade, and a lunatic one too, then what is? Realpolitik and Putin are polar opposites.
HYUFD is really all over the place here. He has no idea, absolutely no fucking clue at all, what he's talking about and it's kind of embarrassing to see it. I normally take pleasure in shooting his stupider arguments out of the barrel, but honestly, this Putinist turn is just a bit sad and tawdry.
Rubbish.
It is not being pro Putin to want to avoid the UK being drawn into a nuclear war.
Which based on Putin's statements there would be at least a 50% chance of if we went to war with Russia over Ukraine, a non NATO nation.
I support economic sanctions against Putin, I do not support war unless he goes beyond Ukraine and invades NATO nations
You are making pro-Putin arguments, 100% you are. You portray arguments for containment as provocative and instead argue for "realpolitik". But when somebody puts to you that this will both encourage nuclear proliferation AND the fact that Putin is on a moral crusade, you go silent about realpolitik. You can't have it both ways. Realpolitik is about doing what's practical. You just want to pay the Danegeld and hope it makes the Dane go away. And you're offering a whole country.
Either you know that Putin won't stop at Ukraine, in which case all you're doing is emboldening the Kremlin... or you don't realise that his Eurasian strategy has talked about EXACTLY THIS kind of unilateral annexation of former Russian Empire states.
Whether you're attempting to sell out Ukraine for a few weeks of feeling less anxious, or you're ignorant of what Putin stands for despite the long pattern of his actions, I don't know. I suspect your are ignorant and that is also the most charitable reading. But either way, you're badly, badly wrong.
Incidentally, I think it's time to remind everyone what you said a few short days ago. In order to defend some rubbish or other you'd come out with, you ended up claiming that Russia is a democracy. That there is your level of ignorance or delusion on the subject. You are massively and tragically out of your depth here.
Had Ukraine not tried to join NATO Putin would likely not have invaded it in the first place.
NATO should not have tried to absorb the old nations of the USSR
That's buying into Putin's argument that NATO expansion 25 years ago was a sufficient provocation as to require war. Boris, rightly, says there was no excuse. You've argued otherwise above.
I know you love to toss and turn, and argue interpretations and definitions, but you said the above and it was one of the most shocking things I've ever seen you write. You always mean precisely what you say, you've always been clear about that as a matter of integrity, even if it was an unpopular view.
The same applies here - you believe a pro-Putin pretext, no ifs ands or buts. You may not support him in all things, but you do support him in that view.
That saddens me more than anything else. It's not a desire to pile on or anything of the kind. But you went pro-Putin.
That is not a pro Putin argument. It is political reality.
NATO was originally created as a defensive organisation to defend Western Europe.
It then expanded to take in East Germany, Poland and Hungary and the Czech Republic after the Cold War ended.
It is the expansion of NATO even beyond that to try and absorb the old states of the USSR which has left Russia feeling encircled and threatened and gone way beyond its original aims. That is not a pro Putin statement, it is reality, whether you like it or not that NATO has turned from a defensive organisation to in many Russians eyes, not just Putin's, an aggressive and expansionist organisation
Why does Russia “feeling encircled and threatened” justify it invading another sovereign country?
While I hesitate to pile on HYFUD, when so many others have pointed out the tripe he is spouting, I am so angry I feel I must join in.
NATO was not some regional power block. It was explcitly established to preserve the principles of the Atlantic Charter, when it became clear that the Soviet Union was just as murderous and brutal as the Germany that had so recently been defeated. In defiance of NKVD murder squads and the deep oppression of all under the Soviet yoke, NATO was and is an alliance of democratic states enacting the rule of law and committed to justice and freedom.
After the fall of Soviet tyranny, those newly free countries lined up to commit to the principles of the Washington treaty, and for a while we thought that Russia would be one of them. A NATO from Vancouver to Vladivostok seemed in sight.
However, it be came clear, shortly after Putin came to power on the back of the bloody destruction of Grozny that Russia was reverting to a much darker road. Many, including me, warned early on what the true nature of Putin was, and I remember debating with Bill Browder why Hermitage was wrong to beleive that Russia could emerge as a free and open economy and society under him.
Now we face nuclear war because Russia is in the hands of a senile tyrant who can kill in an afternoon more than Hitler did in his whole worthless life. Too many people in the UK even when presented with incontrovertible evidence of what Russia had become, were happy to take Putin´s shilling, and Farage, Salmond and many in the Conservative Party are guilty of stupidity at best, and treason at worst. However we will deal with that after this is over.
The next few days are critical, but the horrors we have so far witnessed may be simply an amuse bouche for what is to come. From Estonia to Essex to Estoril we must unite to face a savage and brutal enemy. Let us hope that Ekaterinburg joins that list and the tyrant is defeated and removed very soon.
Raising interest rates by 10.5 percentage point seems to have bought slightly more than 50 minutes of strength before the ruble when back to where it was
Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.
LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.
Bigger LOL at what’s about to happen as the markets in Moscow open. ATMs in Russia out of cash already, and banks unofficially selling dollars at double the official exchange rate. Let’s see how long those currency reserves last, in the face of an international assault on the ruble.
For an invasion that was supposed to depend on speed, this isn't very speedy.
Basically the Ukraine’s military was a basket case in 2014 but it isn’t now. And Russia weren’t paying attention.
Also when you have 1 or 2 target cities in a country with a population of 1-3 million it’s easy to use shock and awe.
That’s not so easy with a country of 44 million and multiple cities - basically Russia bit off more than it can chew and once Ukraine fought back doesn’t have a plan.
It genuinely does appear that the Russian planners thought they’d be greeted with flags waving and happy people, cheering them on all the way to Kiev - much as happened in Crimea and parts of the Donbass eight years ago.
They missed the bit about the NATO countries sending weapons and training for the past few months, and Zelensky making it quite clear that an invasion would be countered in the strongest possible way.
They tried the soft invasion, and it’s resulted in nothing but thousands of casualties and destroyed equipment. They now have a choice, to either back off or start bombing the hell out of Ukraine - with the background of their home economy being crippled by sanctions, and almost no domestic support for the action. It’s going to be fingers very much crossed for the next few days, that common sense might prevail.
Idiot Russian MP on R4 this morning still arguing it's all to save the people from a fascist regime.
I’m always interested in whether any of these idiots believe any of it. Are they so far gone they start to believe the lines?
Speaking as a lurker, PJohnson needs to be banned. They're clearly a troll, as exhibited by the IP address reveal of them from a spam farm.
The justification to not ban is not valid. Why? Because while those posting on this site may well be well-informed enough to speak against, those READING AND VIEWING this site are far more. From my own experience I have spoken to several people who actively read this site and it's comments and do not reply nor register an account.
With this in mind, I ACTIVELY ENCOURAGE for PJohnson to be banned. This is part of their disinformation campaign and while the active posters here may not fall for it, some of those reading it MAY.
May I suggest as one of your first posts here you do not try and get other posters banned.
PJohnson is perfectly entitled to express his view, even if not a popular one, as long as he expresses it in a civil fashion
I suspect @PJohnson is a "they", rather than a "he"
The Russians are employing non-binary trolls these days? How the world has changed.
I think Robert was saying they were multiple personality. The bot did refer to itself with male pronouns.
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
I can well believe it has air superiority *in general*. This is very different from air supremacy (where it isn't possible for the opposition to fly) or even local air superiority in a particular area of operations.
This comes at the same time as confirmed footage of Ukr. drones destroying Russian missile systems.
Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.
LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.
Bigger LOL at what’s about to happen as the markets in Moscow open. ATMs in Russia out of cash already, and banks unofficially selling dollars at double the official exchange rate. Let’s see how long those currency reserves last, in the face of an international assault on the ruble.
For an invasion that was supposed to depend on speed, this isn't very speedy.
Basically the Ukraine’s military was a basket case in 2014 but it isn’t now. And Russia weren’t paying attention.
Also when you have 1 or 2 target cities in a country with a population of 1-3 million it’s easy to use shock and awe.
That’s not so easy with a country of 44 million and multiple cities - basically Russia bit off more than it can chew and once Ukraine fought back doesn’t have a plan.
It genuinely does appear that the Russian planners thought they’d be greeted with flags waving and happy people, cheering them on all the way to Kiev - much as happened in Crimea and parts of the Donbass eight years ago.
They missed the bit about the NATO countries sending weapons and training for the past few months, and Zelensky making it quite clear that an invasion would be countered in the strongest possible way.
They tried the soft invasion, and it’s resulted in nothing but thousands of casualties and destroyed equipment. They now have a choice, to either back off or start bombing the hell out of Ukraine - with the background of their home economy being crippled by sanctions, and almost no domestic support for the action. It’s going to be fingers very much crossed for the next few days, that common sense might prevail.
Idiot Russian MP on R4 this morning still arguing it's all to save the people from a fascist regime.
Well, it is. If there weren't a Fascist regime, there'd be no need for the Ukrainians to fight it.
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
What is really noticeable this morning is that the headlines are nearly all about Russian economic chaos. The situation on the ground in the Ukraine seems to have hardly changed and the intensity of the fighting has dropped off. The Russian invasion has either stalled or is in the process of regrouping according to choice but they certainly seem to have increasing logistical problems. Plan A seems to have been that it was all over by now.
If this armchair nonsense has any validity expect reports of Ukrainian counterattacks with that shiny new NATO kit they are being supplied with.
Basically it maps what many on here think - it’s the inevitable consequences of dodgy information and continual doubling down because Putin can’t back out.
Do some people really think that the difference between Putin deciding to destroy the world or not is really going to come down to the technicalities of NATO membership?
Had Ukraine not tried to join NATO Putin would likely not have invaded it in the first place.
NATO should not have tried to absorb the old nations of the USSR
You're on the wrong side.
It's also stupid. Putin has said time and again he wants to re-establish a greater Russian empire. He's said Ukraine isn't a real country. Sovereignty is whatever he decides it is when he feels like it. Did Zelensky going on about Nato membership push him over the edge? Possibly. But the fundamental problem was always there. He demands submission. Ukrainians will never submit to his rule.
Exactly right. The only stable outcomes of this situation involve Putin not being in power. For all HYUFD goes on about realpolitik, he's basically defending the position of a man whose approach to international relations is to spread propaganda about gays and Jews corrupting the West and how Russia is the last bastion of Christian purity. I mean, if that's not a moral crusade, and a lunatic one too, then what is? Realpolitik and Putin are polar opposites.
HYUFD is really all over the place here. He has no idea, absolutely no fucking clue at all, what he's talking about and it's kind of embarrassing to see it. I normally take pleasure in shooting his stupider arguments out of the barrel, but honestly, this Putinist turn is just a bit sad and tawdry.
Rubbish.
It is not being pro Putin to want to avoid the UK being drawn into a nuclear war.
Which based on Putin's statements there would be at least a 50% chance of if we went to war with Russia over Ukraine, a non NATO nation.
I support economic sanctions against Putin, I do not support war unless he goes beyond Ukraine and invades NATO nations
You are making pro-Putin arguments, 100% you are. You portray arguments for containment as provocative and instead argue for "realpolitik". But when somebody puts to you that this will both encourage nuclear proliferation AND the fact that Putin is on a moral crusade, you go silent about realpolitik. You can't have it both ways. Realpolitik is about doing what's practical. You just want to pay the Danegeld and hope it makes the Dane go away. And you're offering a whole country.
Either you know that Putin won't stop at Ukraine, in which case all you're doing is emboldening the Kremlin... or you don't realise that his Eurasian strategy has talked about EXACTLY THIS kind of unilateral annexation of former Russian Empire states.
Whether you're attempting to sell out Ukraine for a few weeks of feeling less anxious, or you're ignorant of what Putin stands for despite the long pattern of his actions, I don't know. I suspect your are ignorant and that is also the most charitable reading. But either way, you're badly, badly wrong.
Incidentally, I think it's time to remind everyone what you said a few short days ago. In order to defend some rubbish or other you'd come out with, you ended up claiming that Russia is a democracy. That there is your level of ignorance or delusion on the subject. You are massively and tragically out of your depth here.
Had Ukraine not tried to join NATO Putin would likely not have invaded it in the first place.
NATO should not have tried to absorb the old nations of the USSR
That's buying into Putin's argument that NATO expansion 25 years ago was a sufficient provocation as to require war. Boris, rightly, says there was no excuse. You've argued otherwise above.
I know you love to toss and turn, and argue interpretations and definitions, but you said the above and it was one of the most shocking things I've ever seen you write. You always mean precisely what you say, you've always been clear about that as a matter of integrity, even if it was an unpopular view.
The same applies here - you believe a pro-Putin pretext, no ifs ands or buts. You may not support him in all things, but you do support him in that view.
That saddens me more than anything else. It's not a desire to pile on or anything of the kind. But you went pro-Putin.
That is not a pro Putin argument. It is political reality.
NATO was originally created as a defensive organisation to defend Western Europe.
It then expanded to take in East Germany, Poland and Hungary and the Czech Republic after the Cold War ended.
It is the expansion of NATO even beyond that to try and absorb the old states of the USSR which has left Russia feeling encircled and threatened and gone way beyond its original aims. That is not a pro Putin statement, it is reality, whether you like it or not that NATO has turned from a defensive organisation to in many Russians eyes, not just Putin's, an aggressive and expansionist organisation
Why does Russia “feeling encircled and threatened” justify it invading another sovereign country?
While I hesitate to pile on HYFUD, when so many others have pointed out the tripe he is spouting, I am so angry I feel I must join in.
NATO was not some regional power block. It was explcitly established to preserve the principles of the Atlantic Charter, when it became clear that the Soviet Union was just as murderous and brutal as the Germany that had so recently been defeated. In defiance of NKVD murder squads and the deep oppression of all under the Soviet yoke, NATO was and is an alliance of democratic states enacting the rule of law and committed to justice and freedom.
After the fall of Soviet tyranny, those newly free countries lined up to commit to the principles of the Washington treaty, and for a while we thought that Russia would be one of them. A NATO from Vancouver to Vladivostok seemed in sight.
However, it be came clear, shortly after Putin came to power on the back of the bloody destruction of Grozny that Russia was reverting to a much darker road. Many, including me, warned early on what the true nature of Putin was, and I remember debating with Bill Browder why Hermitage was wrong to beleive that Russia could emerge as a free and open economy and society under him.
Now we face nuclear war because Russia is in the hands of a senile tyrant who can kill in an afternoon more than Hitler did in his whole worthless life. Too many people in the UK even when presented with incontrovertible evidence of what Russia had become, were happy to take Putin´s shilling, and Farage, Salmond and many in the Conservative Party are guilty of stupidity at best, and treason at worst. However we will deal with that after this is over.
The next few days are critical, but the horrors we have so far witnessed may be simply an amuse bouche for what is to come. From Estonia to Essex to Estoril we must unite to face a savage and brutal enemy. Let us hope that Ekaterinburg joins that list and the tyrant is defeated and removed very soon.
Well said. Exactly right and put better than I could. People forget the mid-late nineties when we had real hope Russia was joining the club of liberal democracies, and Russia started to work with NATO.
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
Macron wanted an EU army so billions of German euros would be spent buying French arms. Now Germany is to increase its defence spending, he is likely to get his wish.
Speaking as a lurker, PJohnson needs to be banned. They're clearly a troll, as exhibited by the IP address reveal of them from a spam farm.
The justification to not ban is not valid. Why? Because while those posting on this site may well be well-informed enough to speak against, those READING AND VIEWING this site are far more. From my own experience I have spoken to several people who actively read this site and it's comments and do not reply nor register an account.
With this in mind, I ACTIVELY ENCOURAGE for PJohnson to be banned. This is part of their disinformation campaign and while the active posters here may not fall for it, some of those reading it MAY.
May I suggest as one of your first posts here you do not try and get other posters banned.
PJohnson is perfectly entitled to express his view, even if not a popular one, as long as he expresses it in a civil fashion
I suspect @PJohnson is a "they", rather than a "he"
The Russians are employing non-binary trolls these days? How the world has changed.
I think Robert was saying they were multiple personality. The bot did refer to itself with male pronouns.
Well thank goodness they/he got the pronouns issue sorted. Some things are simply beyond the pale.
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
What sort of army has to ask for directions, or rely on road signs? (Assuming these reports are reliable, and there have been a lot of them).
Yes, you’d presume the Russians had access to Gogol Maps.
(More seriously, the Soviets drew up a massively detailed series of maps of Western Europe - see https://redatlasbook.com/ - and scholarly opinion is that this involved actual on-the-ground surveying, not just rewriting the Ordnance Survey in Cyrillic. But there’s no suggestion that Russia has continued the practice. My suspicion is that their maps of Ukraine are probably little better than what we have access to.)
Putin puts his nuclear deterrent forces on high alert. This is the kind of moment we’ve feared almost my entire life. And why is he doing it? Because his wholly unnecessary invasion of Ukraine doesn’t seem to be going to plan."
The logical next step (yes, I know) is for the Russians to work hard at delivering some sort of face saving agreement that allows them to withdraw to their enclaves. If the discussions take a long time that might be a sign.
I've noticed people are now able to reference WWII and Hitler without Godwin's Law being invoked.
This is a good thing. For one, we now have an evil extremely dangerous lunatic threatening to destroy not just Ukraine but the western world. On the ground, militarily there are inevitable comparisons with the blitzkrieg. This is the first time since WWII that there has been this kind of full-scale invasion on European soil. And we're now thinking the unthinkable about a MAD WWIII.
And if we cannot learn lessons from history then we are doomed.
Putin, like Hitler, needs a bullet in his head. And fast.
Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.
LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.
Bigger LOL at what’s about to happen as the markets in Moscow open. ATMs in Russia out of cash already, and banks unofficially selling dollars at double the official exchange rate. Let’s see how long those currency reserves last, in the face of an international assault on the ruble.
For an invasion that was supposed to depend on speed, this isn't very speedy.
Basically the Ukraine’s military was a basket case in 2014 but it isn’t now. And Russia weren’t paying attention.
Also when you have 1 or 2 target cities in a country with a population of 1-3 million it’s easy to use shock and awe.
That’s not so easy with a country of 44 million and multiple cities - basically Russia bit off more than it can chew and once Ukraine fought back doesn’t have a plan.
It genuinely does appear that the Russian planners thought they’d be greeted with flags waving and happy people, cheering them on all the way to Kiev - much as happened in Crimea and parts of the Donbass eight years ago.
They missed the bit about the NATO countries sending weapons and training for the past few months, and Zelensky making it quite clear that an invasion would be countered in the strongest possible way.
They tried the soft invasion, and it’s resulted in nothing but thousands of casualties and destroyed equipment. They now have a choice, to either back off or start bombing the hell out of Ukraine - with the background of their home economy being crippled by sanctions, and almost no domestic support for the action. It’s going to be fingers very much crossed for the next few days, that common sense might prevail.
Idiot Russian MP on R4 this morning still arguing it's all to save the people from a fascist regime.
I’m always interested in whether any of these idiots believe any of it. Are they so far gone they start to believe the lines?
NEW: Conservative MP @TomTugendhat says he’s spoken to ministers who expect that the government will alter its offer to Ukrainian refugees in the coming days.
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
There's a number of questions there that will probably only be answerable after the war is over. GPS is pointless without maps showing where the point on the ground is. If you are told to meet you platoon at the 'Maiden Square', but your map doesn't have that feature on it, then it's not much use. Or people may not be using it correctly.
GPS is also fairly easy to spoof. I was on a walk in Norfolk once when my GPS went a little odd. When I got home I read a notice that the MOD had been at the nearby ranges playing with their kit (*). I can imagine both Glosnass and consumer GPS might be being spoofed.
(GPS is actually much more complex than that, and there are different layers of it. Even though Selective Availability has been turned off (yay!) it's perfectly possible that other things are being done, and that parts of the Ukrainian military have access to GPS whilst the Russians do not.)
Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.
LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.
Bigger LOL at what’s about to happen as the markets in Moscow open. ATMs in Russia out of cash already, and banks unofficially selling dollars at double the official exchange rate. Let’s see how long those currency reserves last, in the face of an international assault on the ruble.
For an invasion that was supposed to depend on speed, this isn't very speedy.
Basically the Ukraine’s military was a basket case in 2014 but it isn’t now. And Russia weren’t paying attention.
Also when you have 1 or 2 target cities in a country with a population of 1-3 million it’s easy to use shock and awe.
That’s not so easy with a country of 44 million and multiple cities - basically Russia bit off more than it can chew and once Ukraine fought back doesn’t have a plan.
It genuinely does appear that the Russian planners thought they’d be greeted with flags waving and happy people, cheering them on all the way to Kiev - much as happened in Crimea and parts of the Donbass eight years ago.
They missed the bit about the NATO countries sending weapons and training for the past few months, and Zelensky making it quite clear that an invasion would be countered in the strongest possible way.
They tried the soft invasion, and it’s resulted in nothing but thousands of casualties and destroyed equipment. They now have a choice, to either back off or start bombing the hell out of Ukraine - with the background of their home economy being crippled by sanctions, and almost no domestic support for the action. It’s going to be fingers very much crossed for the next few days, that common sense might prevail.
Idiot Russian MP on R4 this morning still arguing it's all to save the people from a fascist regime.
I’m always interested in whether any of these idiots believe any of it. Are they so far gone they start to believe the lines?
It's amazing the lengths people will go to to avoid asking themselves whether they are the baddies.
I've noticed people are now able to reference WWII and Hitler without Godwin's Law being invoked.
This is a good thing. For one, we now have an evil extremely dangerous lunatic threatening to destroy not just Ukraine but the western world. On the ground, militarily there are inevitable comparisons with the blitzkrieg. This is the first time since WWII that there has been this kind of full-scale invasion on European soil. And we're now thinking the unthinkable about a MAD WWIII.
And if we cannot learn lessons from history then we are doomed.
Putin, like Hitler, needs a bullet in his head. And fast.
MI6, the German secret service and others, need to prove their worth. They've done well so far purely in terms of intelligence.
NEW: Conservative MP @TomTugendhat says he’s spoken to ministers who expect that the government will alter its offer to Ukrainian refugees in the coming days.
The logical next step (yes, I know) is for the Russians to work hard at delivering some sort of face saving agreement that allows them to withdraw to their enclaves. If the discussions take a long time that might be a sign.
How could the Ukrainians accept that? There would have to be security guarantees over Ukraine's future. The whole country has been invaded. The idea that Russia's attack was purely due to the sovereignty in the Donbass is a joke.
To be clear, I made a typo on the prior post. Here's a quick clarification -
PJohnson and ANY OF HIS Putin dick-licking nature needs to be banned. The IP addresses were revealed by the site staff here earlier today, so this should be no shocker.
While I understand and get that it may be better to toy with them and let them in and distract them, consider it akin to a trojan-horse. While 95%+ of you posting are well-informed enough to see it as nonsense, those READING AND VIEWING this site may NOT.
This constitutes a major risk given the overall situation.
With this in mind, I ACTIVELY ENCOURAGE for PJohnson to be banned. This is part of their disinformation campaign and while the active posters here may not fall for it, some of those reading it MAY.
To be fair, whilst i don't disagree, i think Mike once posted some evidence that the vast majority of people reading the site don't actually delve into the comments. And those that did would have to read all the ones pointing out he was a troll. It's not difficult to find this stuff all over the internet if you go looking for it.
Thanks for your recognition. From my personal experience it's quite difficult to, so for better or worse I'm barging in, haha
And I hope you stay. As a long time lurker I know the nervousness about speaking up the first time!
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
There's a number of questions there that will probably only be answerable after the war is over. GPS is pointless without maps showing where the point on the ground is. If you are told to meet you platoon at the 'Maiden Square', but your map doesn't have that feature on it, then it's not much use. Or people may not be using it correctly.
GPS is also fairly easy to spoof. I was on a walk in Norfolk once when my GPS went a little odd. When I got home I read a notice that the MOD had been at the nearby ranges playing with their kit (*). I can imagine both Glosnass and consumer GPS might be being spoofed.
(GPS is actually much more complex than that, and there are different layers of it. Even though Selective Availability has been turned off (yay!) it's perfectly possible that other things are being done, and that parts of the Ukrainian military have access to GPS whilst the Russians do not.)
Interestingly, it appears that Google Maps has removed trafffic information from Ukraine overnight. It was highlighting the road closures put in place by the Ukranians (by blocking roads and blowing up bridges), and long queues at borders to the West.
It appears that the Ukranian army has been busy in the capital during the curfew yesterday - lots of roadblocks in place, likely backed up with anti-tank weaponry set to ambush the invaders.
If the 5,000 figure is correct, Russia has lost 1 in 200 of its total army strength of a million in just 4 days. Imagine losing 1 in 20 in 40 days, and that doesn't include those taken prisoner or deserting.
At that point the best thing might be mass protests in Moscow. After all what would they have to lose.
Or one of his generals puts a bullet in his head. Whoever had the courage to do that would be the rest of the world's friend for life.
What, all 1.5 minutes of it?
That makes no sense. If someone takes out Putin there won't be a nuclear war.
Were I in the assassination for Ukraine game, and able to get it done, Lukashenko might be a more tempting target. Possible revolution and diversion of Russian forces to guarantee Belarus stays under control.
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
We have the opportunity for a major reset after six years of stupid bickering. The EU has changed utterly. In particular, this applies to Germany, which has put itself on course to become the world's largest non-nuclear military force and a major voice inside NATO. More than ever, it is in everyone's interests to find ways for the UK and the EU to work together productively. We now know we are all on the same side, that the UK's future is tied inextricably and unavoidably to Europe's and that we have plenty to offer each other. What is going to be interesting is how this plays out inside the Conservative party. Can the ERG accept this new reality?
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
There's a number of questions there that will probably only be answerable after the war is over. GPS is pointless without maps showing where the point on the ground is. If you are told to meet you platoon at the 'Maiden Square', but your map doesn't have that feature on it, then it's not much use. Or people may not be using it correctly.
GPS is also fairly easy to spoof. I was on a walk in Norfolk once when my GPS went a little odd. When I got home I read a notice that the MOD had been at the nearby ranges playing with their kit (*). I can imagine both Glosnass and consumer GPS might be being spoofed.
(GPS is actually much more complex than that, and there are different layers of it. Even though Selective Availability has been turned off (yay!) it's perfectly possible that other things are being done, and that parts of the Ukrainian military have access to GPS whilst the Russians do not.)
Interestingly, it appears that Google Maps has removed trafffic information from Ukraine overnight. It was highlighting the road closures put in place by the Ukranians (by blocking roads and blowing up bridges), and long queues at borders to the West.
It appears that the Ukranian army has been busy in the capital during the curfew yesterday - lots of roadblocks in place, likely backed up with anti-tank weaponry set to ambush the invaders.
The traffic information is generated by people using Google maps to drive about. I doubt there are that many of those in Ukraine right now, which probably explains the lack of data rather than it having been "removed"?
NEW: Conservative MP @TomTugendhat says he’s spoken to ministers who expect that the government will alter its offer to Ukrainian refugees in the coming days.
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
There's a number of questions there that will probably only be answerable after the war is over. GPS is pointless without maps showing where the point on the ground is. If you are told to meet you platoon at the 'Maiden Square', but your map doesn't have that feature on it, then it's not much use. Or people may not be using it correctly.
GPS is also fairly easy to spoof. I was on a walk in Norfolk once when my GPS went a little odd. When I got home I read a notice that the MOD had been at the nearby ranges playing with their kit (*). I can imagine both Glosnass and consumer GPS might be being spoofed.
(GPS is actually much more complex than that, and there are different layers of it. Even though Selective Availability has been turned off (yay!) it's perfectly possible that other things are being done, and that parts of the Ukrainian military have access to GPS whilst the Russians do not.)
Interestingly, it appears that Google Maps has removed trafffic information from Ukraine overnight. It was highlighting the road closures put in place by the Ukranians (by blocking roads and blowing up bridges), and long queues at borders to the West.
It appears that the Ukranian army has been busy in the capital during the curfew yesterday - lots of roadblocks in place, likely backed up with anti-tank weaponry set to ambush the invaders.
It is heartwarming that, confronted with this invasion, not just western Governments but also western companies are seemingly coming together and doing the right thing. Even on the Government side, it now feels like the critical mass is to go further, faster, against this threat.
Good morning from Manchester. Have been following development in snippets over a busy weekend - interesting that so little progress by Russia has been made but so much progress by Ukraine / the west.
A few takeaways: 1. Ukraine will become a member of NATO pretty quickly after this should Russia be repelled. They have been practically adopted by us and the reaction of governments and peoples across the alliance has been heartening 2. Economic measures - once we finally all started acting as strongly as was needed - look to be punitive against Russia. How much punishment can their economy take before the oligarchs tell him to back off? 3. Our stance on refugees is about as nasty and tone-deaf as its possible to get. Yet another indefensible position, outrageous tweets and statements that get quickly withdrawn and we all know a uturn is imminent. So why act like twats at all? Is preserving the "we don't want the forrin here!" caucus really still that important
Final thought. We enter a really dangerous period. Not because of the nukes status thing - they can we switched from asleep to fired quickly enough at any time. Because Russia is under the cosh. War plan failing, economy being savaged, pariah status being entrenched.
Putin may feel he is being backed into a corner. Use of more exotic weapons, targeting of more general targets may come into play...
We have the opportunity for a major reset after six years of stupid bickering. The EU has changed utterly. In particular, this applies to Germany, which has put itself on course to become the world's largest non-nuclear military force and a major voice inside NATO. More than ever, it is in everyone's interests to find ways for the UK and the EU to work together productively. We now know we are all on the same side, that the UK's future is tied inextricably and unavoidably to Europe's and that we have plenty to offer each other. What is going to be interesting is how this plays out inside the Conservative party. Can the ERG accept this new reality?
But Xu and his colleagues’ open letter was quickly taken down by internet censors after two hours and 40 minutes online. And, perhaps unsurprisingly, pro-war Chinese trolls denounced the authors...
At that point the best thing might be mass protests in Moscow. After all what would they have to lose.
Or one of his generals puts a bullet in his head. Whoever had the courage to do that would be the rest of the world's friend for life.
What, all 1.5 minutes of it?
That makes no sense. If someone takes out Putin there won't be a nuclear war.
Were I in the assassination for Ukraine game, and able to get it done, Lukashenko might be a more tempting target. Possible revolution and diversion of Russian forces to guarantee Belarus stays under control.
Yes, Russia must be scared that he could fall, noting what we all know about the views of his people. That would be a significant domino.
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
We have the opportunity for a major reset after six years of stupid bickering. The EU has changed utterly. In particular, this applies to Germany, which has put itself on course to become the world's largest non-nuclear military force and a major voice inside NATO. More than ever, it is in everyone's interests to find ways for the UK and the EU to work together productively. We now know we are all on the same side, that the UK's future is tied inextricably and unavoidably to Europe's and that we have plenty to offer each other. What is going to be interesting is how this plays out inside the Conservative party. Can the ERG accept this new reality?
I think the ERG are going to be ancient history, because the world has changed so much in the last week. The EU are more likely to be successful with Britain outside it; but there is no reason why they cannot work together closely on defence, as they are doing now with Britain leading the EU in the early part of the conflict. An EU army is a great idea in light of recent events - more likely to become a reality with the UK outside it.
What is really noticeable this morning is that the headlines are nearly all about Russian economic chaos. The situation on the ground in the Ukraine seems to have hardly changed and the intensity of the fighting has dropped off. The Russian invasion has either stalled or is in the process of regrouping according to choice but they certainly seem to have increasing logistical problems. Plan A seems to have been that it was all over by now.
If this armchair nonsense has any validity expect reports of Ukrainian counterattacks with that shiny new NATO kit they are being supplied with.
Has there been any more news/detail/confirmation of the videos of *huge* explosions that were shared yesterday evening? A pause for Russia to flatten the Ukrainian military from a distance would preclude a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
NEW: Conservative MP @TomTugendhat says he’s spoken to ministers who expect that the government will alter its offer to Ukrainian refugees in the coming days.
We have the opportunity for a major reset after six years of stupid bickering. The EU has changed utterly. In particular, this applies to Germany, which has put itself on course to become the world's largest non-nuclear military force and a major voice inside NATO. More than ever, it is in everyone's interests to find ways for the UK and the EU to work together productively. We now know we are all on the same side, that the UK's future is tied inextricably and unavoidably to Europe's and that we have plenty to offer each other. What is going to be interesting is how this plays out inside the Conservative party. Can the ERG accept this new reality?
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
We have the opportunity for a major reset after six years of stupid bickering. The EU has changed utterly. In particular, this applies to Germany, which has put itself on course to become the world's largest non-nuclear military force and a major voice inside NATO. More than ever, it is in everyone's interests to find ways for the UK and the EU to work together productively. We now know we are all on the same side, that the UK's future is tied inextricably and unavoidably to Europe's and that we have plenty to offer each other. What is going to be interesting is how this plays out inside the Conservative party. Can the ERG accept this new reality?
They have a lot of new reality to accept. They're still keeping the door firmly shut to Ukranians seeking shelter - must keep the forrin out to appease the little Englander core vote.
What is really noticeable this morning is that the headlines are nearly all about Russian economic chaos. The situation on the ground in the Ukraine seems to have hardly changed and the intensity of the fighting has dropped off. The Russian invasion has either stalled or is in the process of regrouping according to choice but they certainly seem to have increasing logistical problems. Plan A seems to have been that it was all over by now.
If this armchair nonsense has any validity expect reports of Ukrainian counterattacks with that shiny new NATO kit they are being supplied with.
Has there been any more news/detail/confirmation of the videos of *huge* explosions that were shared yesterday evening? A pause for Russia to flatten the Ukrainian military from a distance would preclude a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
The film was of an ammo dump being blown up (probably); and it turns out (if Yokes is correct) that everyone has some variation of the thermobaric weapons, so it isn't really the game changer that we are all fearing. However, I would definitely not like to be caught up in such an explosion!
I've noticed people are now able to reference WWII and Hitler without Godwin's Law being invoked.
This is a good thing. For one, we now have an evil extremely dangerous lunatic threatening to destroy not just Ukraine but the western world. On the ground, militarily there are inevitable comparisons with the blitzkrieg. This is the first time since WWII that there has been this kind of full-scale invasion on European soil. And we're now thinking the unthinkable about a MAD WWIII.
And if we cannot learn lessons from history then we are doomed.
Putin, like Hitler, needs a bullet in his head. And fast.
MI6, the German secret service and others, need to prove their worth. They've done well so far purely in terms of intelligence.
I've noticed people are now able to reference WWII and Hitler without Godwin's Law being invoked.
This is a good thing. For one, we now have an evil extremely dangerous lunatic threatening to destroy not just Ukraine but the western world. On the ground, militarily there are inevitable comparisons with the blitzkrieg. This is the first time since WWII that there has been this kind of full-scale invasion on European soil. And we're now thinking the unthinkable about a MAD WWIII.
And if we cannot learn lessons from history then we are doomed.
Putin, like Hitler, needs a bullet in his head. And fast.
MI6, the German secret service and others, need to prove their worth. They've done well so far purely in terms of intelligence.
Bounty: first to shoot Putin gets to keep their ill-gotten gains. The rest? Not so much.....
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
There's a number of questions there that will probably only be answerable after the war is over. GPS is pointless without maps showing where the point on the ground is. If you are told to meet you platoon at the 'Maiden Square', but your map doesn't have that feature on it, then it's not much use. Or people may not be using it correctly.
GPS is also fairly easy to spoof. I was on a walk in Norfolk once when my GPS went a little odd. When I got home I read a notice that the MOD had been at the nearby ranges playing with their kit (*). I can imagine both Glosnass and consumer GPS might be being spoofed.
(GPS is actually much more complex than that, and there are different layers of it. Even though Selective Availability has been turned off (yay!) it's perfectly possible that other things are being done, and that parts of the Ukrainian military have access to GPS whilst the Russians do not.)
Interestingly, it appears that Google Maps has removed trafffic information from Ukraine overnight. It was highlighting the road closures put in place by the Ukranians (by blocking roads and blowing up bridges), and long queues at borders to the West.
It appears that the Ukranian army has been busy in the capital during the curfew yesterday - lots of roadblocks in place, likely backed up with anti-tank weaponry set to ambush the invaders.
I wonder how well roadblocks/barricades will work in modern warfare. Will the tactics of the June Rebellion work 190 years later? Will a young journalist write a long book based on the rebellion, which will be made into a blockbusting musical for theatre and film?
What is really noticeable this morning is that the headlines are nearly all about Russian economic chaos. The situation on the ground in the Ukraine seems to have hardly changed and the intensity of the fighting has dropped off. The Russian invasion has either stalled or is in the process of regrouping according to choice but they certainly seem to have increasing logistical problems. Plan A seems to have been that it was all over by now.
If this armchair nonsense has any validity expect reports of Ukrainian counterattacks with that shiny new NATO kit they are being supplied with.
Has there been any more news/detail/confirmation of the videos of *huge* explosions that were shared yesterday evening? A pause for Russia to flatten the Ukrainian military from a distance would preclude a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Not that I have picked up on my quick skim this morning. The GPS mapping of that explosion didn't really solve the mystery. But, at the moment, most of the Ukrainian military seems to be dug in in cities which would make that form of attack very difficult, even for an increasingly desperate Putin.
NEW: Conservative MP @TomTugendhat says he’s spoken to ministers who expect that the government will alter its offer to Ukrainian refugees in the coming days.
I think they have already moved on family members.
One pressure for us more than elsewhere is that we have relatively very few empty homes.
OTOH for a hard headed thought, we also have a very tight labour market.
From memory, while the announcement says family members the detail inside says immediate blood relatives only i.e. not the 28 year old sister looking for (a temporary) place (prior to flying to the US).
Interested in your assessment of how well/badly this is going for Russia @Dura_Ace
I have no clue and anybody that tells you they do is bullshitting.
The only notable fact is that the Russians, for some as yet unknown reason, did not play to their strengths and use massed long range fires as they did in Chechnya and Georgia. They went for US style high tempo maneuvering attacks without pulverising the area with artillery first. We'd have to know what the plan and the goals were before we could say whether its working or not.
My assumption would be that they feared the level of opprobrium that would follow - clearly of course that ship has now sailed. Alternatively, Chinese pressure behind the scenes? Thirdly, they have no clue what they are doing? Not sure which is the most worrying.
There was an interesting analysis piece posted yesterday - will have to find the link.
The thesis was that the previous Russian defence minister had come in to sort things out. And he did. But because he pushed back hard, he was fired in 2012.
Anatoly apparently cracked down on corruption - and got logistics working again. Including building up stocks of ammunition and spares.
Is it possible that what happened, was
- By 2012 the Russia military had a nice stockpile of ammunition etc. - 2014 They use the stockpile up in Ukraine Round 1 and 2015 Syria - They don't replace the stockpiles - corruption in supply (supplies stolen or never delivered) is the oldest and simplest form of military corruption. - So in 2022, they simply don't have the ammunition and spare parts to run a war properly....
I must take a break from PB and turn my attention to my job. Just wanted to say thanks to the people who keep it going. The quality of debate and information is about as good as realistically can be achieved in an anonymous internet forum.
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
Why won't it please Brexity types.
The EU has stood tall, eventually. They took their time.
Britain and the clown have actually done well as has the US.
It is, now, a great example of co-operation and how we can still work together.
All bad things are an opportunity to find good outcomes that were not possible without the bad things. I see two sides of the lunatic fringe having their worldview swept aside:
1. The hard left. Stop the War look like absolute pillocks, Labour MPs being slapped down hard and effectively withdrawing. The world gathering together to confront the true Global Enemy and outrageously deciding it is Russia and not Israel. Their petulant bleating against the west looks more stupid than ever.
2. The hard right. Farage spectacularly shat the bed by backing Putin over NATO. The "lets fight petty jingoistic spats with Yerp" wing of the Tories look completely out of step with reality, and once the "no forrin" ban gets pulled we're about to see an outpouring of public support for Ukranian refugees.
I'd get sacked if I shared it, but on one of my work screens I can access a country's live economic report (stock market, currency, interest rates etc).
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
We have the opportunity for a major reset after six years of stupid bickering. The EU has changed utterly. In particular, this applies to Germany, which has put itself on course to become the world's largest non-nuclear military force and a major voice inside NATO. More than ever, it is in everyone's interests to find ways for the UK and the EU to work together productively. We now know we are all on the same side, that the UK's future is tied inextricably and unavoidably to Europe's and that we have plenty to offer each other. What is going to be interesting is how this plays out inside the Conservative party. Can the ERG accept this new reality?
They have a lot of new reality to accept. They're still keeping the door firmly shut to Ukranians seeking shelter - must keep the forrin out to appease the little Englander core vote.
The ERG has no choice, ultimately. What Putin has shown is that the UK's future is unavoidably tied to Europe's. That has implications across the full range of policy areas - defence, foreign affairs, trade, energy and so on. At some point in the not too distant future, this reality will have to be accepted and that has to lead to a reset of our relationship with the EU. We need each other.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
If the 5,000 figure is correct, Russia has lost 1 in 200 of its total army strength of a million in just 4 days. Imagine losing 1 in 20 in 40 days, and that doesn't include those taken prisoner or deserting.
Most of that theoretical million are non-deployable conscripts in various parts of their training. Complete with obsolete equipment etc etc.
It is quite probable that force that Russia has around/in Ukraine *is* the sum total of their deployable army. Which is why Putin has been asking his few allies for help.
But Xu and his colleagues’ open letter was quickly taken down by internet censors after two hours and 40 minutes online. And, perhaps unsurprisingly, pro-war Chinese trolls denounced the authors...
I think there’s a difference between the public and private face of the Chinese government at the moment.
Publicly they are trying to sit in the gap between the West and Russia because it doesn’t benefit the CCP to unduly enrage any one side - bad for business.
Privately I suspect they are all sitting around thinking “what the f***ing f**k is that lunatic in the Kremlin doing?!”
I'd get sacked if I shared it, but on one of my work screens I can access a country's live economic report (stock market, currency, interest rates etc).
Russia is utterly red on every metric.
Utterly fucked, it brought a smile to my face.
I've never seen anything like it.
Interest rates at 20%, I think ? Like the ERM debacle all over again.
Mr. Eagles, no idea on the Russian situation, but I do recall (and this may not even have been the high) interest rates of 65,000% in Zimbabwe. Think it was that, anyway, was a decade and a half or so ago.
And all that to fight a needless war. Which isn't going to plan, even.
Woke up with a mild feeling of existential dread this morning.
The US and EU have done their bit, as has Zelensky. It feels like the most important players in the events of the next couple of days are, besides Putin:
Xi Lukashenka The capital markets Putin’s generals The Belarusian people
Mass disobedience and mutiny by Belarus military seems close to an evens chance to me.
NEW: Conservative MP @TomTugendhat says he’s spoken to ministers who expect that the government will alter its offer to Ukrainian refugees in the coming days.
I think they have already moved on family members.
One pressure for us more than elsewhere is that we have relatively very few empty homes.
OTOH for a hard headed thought, we also have a very tight labour market.
From memory, while the announcement says family members the detail inside says immediate blood relatives only i.e. not the 28 year old sister looking for (a temporary) place (prior to flying to the US).
I can't decide if it is sheer pig ignorance or pig-headed stupidity that has driven this. The starter for 10 is that many Tory core voters support them and Brexit because there are too many forriners in our country. Hence the new aussie-style points system largely being nobody coming in.
So of course they would invite Ukranians fleeing war to apply to pick fruit. Its all they are good for. Whoops, people think we are inhuman. OK, lets announce a Big Lifting of restrictions whilst not actually saying what those are and keeping almost all of them in place - nobody will notice.
Oh, they noticed. Erm, cripes! A full capitulation u-turn is just hours away. So why couldn't the Tories do the decent thing, the human thing, the thing that our neighbours did without question? Because they have weaponised jingoism for their electoral benefit. For all that the UK has done well in this, the refugee thing is typically appalling.
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
We have the opportunity for a major reset after six years of stupid bickering. The EU has changed utterly. In particular, this applies to Germany, which has put itself on course to become the world's largest non-nuclear military force and a major voice inside NATO. More than ever, it is in everyone's interests to find ways for the UK and the EU to work together productively. We now know we are all on the same side, that the UK's future is tied inextricably and unavoidably to Europe's and that we have plenty to offer each other. What is going to be interesting is how this plays out inside the Conservative party. Can the ERG accept this new reality?
The fade at the end of this will be interesting - the East Politics block in Germany will try for a comeback. Will the commitment to 2% last?
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
Yes. In a word. The problem is that it’s got to look like a “you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours” situation. So perhaps some kind of deal on Donetsk and Luhansk - still part of Ukraine but fully autonomous with international overseers, a sort of NI plus, perhaps.
I'd get sacked if I shared it, but on one of my work screens I can access a country's live economic report (stock market, currency, interest rates etc).
Russia is utterly red on every metric.
Utterly fucked, it brought a smile to my face.
I've never seen anything like it.
No hint of a Chinese bail out?
Is it not possible that they might do a deal with a successor of Putin' who will do the deed? Or ensure it is done.
Interested in your assessment of how well/badly this is going for Russia @Dura_Ace
I have no clue and anybody that tells you they do is bullshitting.
The only notable fact is that the Russians, for some as yet unknown reason, did not play to their strengths and use massed long range fires as they did in Chechnya and Georgia. They went for US style high tempo maneuvering attacks without pulverising the area with artillery first. We'd have to know what the plan and the goals were before we could say whether its working or not.
My assumption would be that they feared the level of opprobrium that would follow - clearly of course that ship has now sailed. Alternatively, Chinese pressure behind the scenes? Thirdly, they have no clue what they are doing? Not sure which is the most worrying.
There was an interesting analysis piece posted yesterday - will have to find the link.
The thesis was that the previous Russian defence minister had come in to sort things out. And he did. But because he pushed back hard, he was fired in 2012.
Anatoly apparently cracked down on corruption - and got logistics working again. Including building up stocks of ammunition and spares.
Is it possible that what happened, was
- By 2012 the Russia military had a nice stockpile of ammunition etc. - 2014 They use the stockpile up in Ukraine Round 1 and 2015 Syria - They don't replace the stockpiles - corruption in supply (supplies stolen or never delivered) is the oldest and simplest form of military corruption. - So in 2022, they simply don't have the ammunition and spare parts to run a war properly....
??
I remember reading the same - and then you can see from my linked thread earlier that the Ukraine has done the opposite but also has 240,000 former conscripts who know what they are doing because they spent a year dealing with Donetsk and Donbas so know how the weapons they now have work.
I think it comes down to 2014 - Russia prepared, Ukraine utterly unprepared. 2022 - Russia over confident, Ukraine far better prepared than Russia thought.
Comments
"Turn it round and go home in the next 12 hours - or you won't need those mobile crematoria....You know we can deliver on this threat."
Based on the news that new aircraft made it to Ukraine yesterday and overnight, I'm not entirely sure.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498197156880072704
However, with Putin's state of mind and his recent threats it could escalate very quickly. And with nearly all of the newspapers leading with the Nuclear headline (not just the tabloids but the broadsheets) it seems fairly reasonable that Sky News should lead with that question.
And after all the UK's defence minister is a minor player in Ukraine's fight for survival.
Raising interest rates by 10.5 percentage point seems to have bought slightly more than 50 minutes of strength before the ruble when back to where it was
https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1498197371137970181
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
But Putin's downfall is long overdue.
I'd note, though, that Ukraine has a legal mechanism (in place since 2015) for foreign fighters to join their armed forces.
There's even a 3 year path to citizenship.
We know the world won't ever be safe. Yes yes.
But Putin is a menace to the world on a scale probably not seen since Hitler and with nuclear armageddon at his finger tips.
Casino Royale is right. We need this man dead. And we can breathe.
"If only international politics and relations was as easy as rocket science"
(*) A rather good space YouTuber
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1V-lj-jCqe8
Interesting footage of Churchills funeral in 1965, accompanied by Gustav Holst.
I assumed that this was a Britain that was lost forever - but I may have been premature in that conclusion.
One reason why the French army was beaten at Sedan in 1871 was Napoleon III was so confident of victory he'd only given out maps of Prussia, not France. His army got hopelessly lost and divided and it was easy for the Prussians to surround it.
NATO was not some regional power block. It was explcitly established to preserve the principles of the Atlantic Charter, when it became clear that the Soviet Union was just as murderous and brutal as the Germany that had so recently been defeated. In defiance of NKVD murder squads and the deep oppression of all under the Soviet yoke, NATO was and is an alliance of democratic states enacting the rule of law and committed to justice and freedom.
After the fall of Soviet tyranny, those newly free countries lined up to commit to the principles of the Washington treaty, and for a while we thought that Russia would be one of them. A NATO from Vancouver to Vladivostok seemed in sight.
However, it be came clear, shortly after Putin came to power on the back of the bloody destruction of Grozny that Russia was reverting to a much darker road. Many, including me, warned early on what the true nature of Putin was, and I remember debating with Bill Browder why Hermitage was wrong to beleive that Russia could emerge as a free and open economy and society under him.
Now we face nuclear war because Russia is in the hands of a senile tyrant who can kill in an afternoon more than Hitler did in his whole worthless life. Too many people in the UK even when presented with incontrovertible evidence of what Russia had become, were happy to take Putin´s shilling, and Farage, Salmond and many in the Conservative Party are guilty of stupidity at best, and treason at worst. However we will deal with that after this is over.
The next few days are critical, but the horrors we have so far witnessed may be simply an amuse bouche for what is to come. From Estonia to Essex to Estoril we must unite to face a savage and brutal enemy. Let us hope that Ekaterinburg joins that list and the tyrant is defeated and removed very soon.
This comes at the same time as confirmed footage of Ukr. drones destroying Russian missile systems.
Oh sorry, he didn't mean the Russians?
If this armchair nonsense has any validity expect reports of Ukrainian counterattacks with that shiny new NATO kit they are being supplied with.
https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1498167759703732224
Basically it maps what many on here think - it’s the inevitable consequences of dodgy information and continual doubling down because Putin can’t back out.
Not entirely incredible in the case of the Russians.
(More seriously, the Soviets drew up a massively detailed series of maps of Western Europe - see https://redatlasbook.com/ - and scholarly opinion is that this involved actual on-the-ground surveying, not just rewriting the Ordnance Survey in Cyrillic. But there’s no suggestion that Russia has continued the practice. My suspicion is that their maps of Ukraine are probably little better than what we have access to.)
But we're outside it. That ain't changing.
@JohnSimpson
Putin puts his nuclear deterrent forces on high alert. This is the kind of moment we’ve feared almost my entire life. And why is he doing it? Because his wholly unnecessary invasion of Ukraine doesn’t seem to be going to plan."
I've noticed people are now able to reference WWII and Hitler without Godwin's Law being invoked.
This is a good thing. For one, we now have an evil extremely dangerous lunatic threatening to destroy not just Ukraine but the western world. On the ground, militarily there are inevitable comparisons with the blitzkrieg. This is the first time since WWII that there has been this kind of full-scale invasion on European soil. And we're now thinking the unthinkable about a MAD WWIII.
And if we cannot learn lessons from history then we are doomed.
Putin, like Hitler, needs a bullet in his head. And fast.
If you are unsure think about how most UK people get their news - and that’s before you remember that Russian news may not be 100% accurate
He anticipates the UK will follow the EU and allow any Ukrainian to come here for 3 years without a need for a visa.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1498201917947797507
GPS is also fairly easy to spoof. I was on a walk in Norfolk once when my GPS went a little odd. When I got home I read a notice that the MOD had been at the nearby ranges playing with their kit (*). I can imagine both Glosnass and consumer GPS might be being spoofed.
(GPS is actually much more complex than that, and there are different layers of it. Even though Selective Availability has been turned off (yay!) it's perfectly possible that other things are being done, and that parts of the Ukrainian military have access to GPS whilst the Russians do not.)
(*) E.g. this: https://rin.org.uk/news/439282/Warning-of-RF-jamming-that-might-affect-GPS.htm
The EU has stood tall, eventually. They took their time.
Britain and the clown have actually done well as has the US.
It is, now, a great example of co-operation and how we can still work together.
It appears that the Ukranian army has been busy in the capital during the curfew yesterday - lots of roadblocks in place, likely backed up with anti-tank weaponry set to ambush the invaders.
I think they have already moved on family members.
One pressure for us more than elsewhere is that we have relatively very few empty homes.
OTOH for a hard headed thought, we also have a very tight labour market.
A few takeaways:
1. Ukraine will become a member of NATO pretty quickly after this should Russia be repelled. They have been practically adopted by us and the reaction of governments and peoples across the alliance has been heartening
2. Economic measures - once we finally all started acting as strongly as was needed - look to be punitive against Russia. How much punishment can their economy take before the oligarchs tell him to back off?
3. Our stance on refugees is about as nasty and tone-deaf as its possible to get. Yet another indefensible position, outrageous tweets and statements that get quickly withdrawn and we all know a uturn is imminent. So why act like twats at all? Is preserving the "we don't want the forrin here!" caucus really still that important
Final thought. We enter a really dangerous period. Not because of the nukes status thing - they can we switched from asleep to fired quickly enough at any time. Because Russia is under the cosh. War plan failing, economy being savaged, pariah status being entrenched.
Putin may feel he is being backed into a corner. Use of more exotic weapons, targeting of more general targets may come into play...
https://twitter.com/hhesterm/status/1497968518473596931
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1497894428727463941
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/28/they-were-fooled-by-putin-chinese-historians-speak-out-against-russian-invasion
..."This is simply a black and white matter,” he continued. “This is an invasion. As the Chinese saying goes: you cannot call a deer a horse. As Chinese historians, we do not wish to see China being dragged into something that will fundamentally harm the current world order. For the love of mankind, world peace and development, we should make this clear.”
But Xu and his colleagues’ open letter was quickly taken down by internet censors after two hours and 40 minutes online. And, perhaps unsurprisingly, pro-war Chinese trolls denounced the authors...
The EU are more likely to be successful with Britain outside it; but there is no reason why they cannot work together closely on defence, as they are doing now with Britain leading the EU in the early part of the conflict.
An EU army is a great idea in light of recent events - more likely to become a reality with the UK outside it.
F1: have another tiny free bet so, having already backed Norris at 17, I've backed Sainz at 9 each way for the win in Bahrain.
https://twitter.com/Scout_Finch/status/1497979985671426055?t=mxgj6One_KZ5R1YjC64QLA&s=19
The UK has handled most of the Ukraine crisis reasonably well. Like the EU, it only took difficult steps in an emergency, but that's to be expected.
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1498206209186349057
This is how he spends his days now: https://twitter.com/armedforcesukr/status/1498166707604668417
The thesis was that the previous Russian defence minister had come in to sort things out. And he did. But because he pushed back hard, he was fired in 2012.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatoly_Serdyukov
And replaced with the current guy who makes all the thieves-in-law happy. One of the Putin old guard.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Shoygu
Anatoly apparently cracked down on corruption - and got logistics working again. Including building up stocks of ammunition and spares.
Is it possible that what happened, was
- By 2012 the Russia military had a nice stockpile of ammunition etc.
- 2014 They use the stockpile up in Ukraine Round 1 and 2015 Syria
- They don't replace the stockpiles - corruption in supply (supplies stolen or never delivered) is the oldest and simplest form of military corruption.
- So in 2022, they simply don't have the ammunition and spare parts to run a war properly....
??
1. The hard left. Stop the War look like absolute pillocks, Labour MPs being slapped down hard and effectively withdrawing. The world gathering together to confront the true Global Enemy and outrageously deciding it is Russia and not Israel. Their petulant bleating against the west looks more stupid than ever.
2. The hard right. Farage spectacularly shat the bed by backing Putin over NATO. The "lets fight petty jingoistic spats with Yerp" wing of the Tories look completely out of step with reality, and once the "no forrin" ban gets pulled we're about to see an outpouring of public support for Ukranian refugees.
Russia is utterly red on every metric.
Utterly fucked, it brought a smile to my face.
I've never seen anything like it.
At least we're still here to discuss it all. I did wonder, when we went to bed last night!
Putin's in danger of turning Russia in to late Mugabe era Zimbabwe.
Inflation and interest rates in four figures would be nice.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
It is quite probable that force that Russia has around/in Ukraine *is* the sum total of their deployable army. Which is why Putin has been asking his few allies for help.
Publicly they are trying to sit in the gap between the West and Russia because it doesn’t benefit the CCP to unduly enrage any one side - bad for business.
Privately I suspect they are all sitting around thinking “what the f***ing f**k is that lunatic in the Kremlin doing?!”
Like the ERM debacle all over again.
And all that to fight a needless war. Which isn't going to plan, even.
Keep Calm and Carry On everyone.
The US and EU have done their bit, as has Zelensky. It feels like the most important players in the events of the next couple of days are, besides Putin:
Xi
Lukashenka
The capital markets
Putin’s generals
The Belarusian people
Mass disobedience and mutiny by Belarus military seems close to an evens chance to me.
So of course they would invite Ukranians fleeing war to apply to pick fruit. Its all they are good for. Whoops, people think we are inhuman. OK, lets announce a Big Lifting of restrictions whilst not actually saying what those are and keeping almost all of them in place - nobody will notice.
Oh, they noticed. Erm, cripes! A full capitulation u-turn is just hours away. So why couldn't the Tories do the decent thing, the human thing, the thing that our neighbours did without question? Because they have weaponised jingoism for their electoral benefit. For all that the UK has done well in this, the refugee thing is typically appalling.
Is it not possible that they might do a deal with a successor of Putin' who will do the deed? Or ensure it is done.
I think it comes down to 2014 - Russia prepared, Ukraine utterly unprepared.
2022 - Russia over confident, Ukraine far better prepared than Russia thought.