A 'palace coup' would be welcome but the current Russian elite (compared to other autocracies, let alone compared to any democratic country) is a very small group of people, partly by Putin's own design. If he goes, either the whole country collapses or his replacement is likely to be someone from the current regime.
I don't think we should hope for any sort of regime change or even 'popular' uprising in Russia. No matter how awful the current regime, the one replacing it is, more often than not, worse.
By the way, I know the Hitler comparisons are easy, but I see Putin as more of a Louis XIV type.
P.S. I can't quite figure out if the earlier posts were just being satyrical, but no, Johnson has not been cultivated by Putin. I don't even think Trump was - '45' was just a useful idiot with a fetish for strongmen. If I could pick the most useful politician to the Russian president in the last decade, I would probably say Angela Merkel, whom all wise and sensible commentators and columnists cited as a model for British politicians, at least until the day before yesterday.
I think you are totally wrong about Trump. The evidence is overwhelming.
I could well be wrong on Trump, happy to defer on that. Trump just seems to me so innately pro-Putin that I don't think he was bribed/blackmailed to be so.
I suppose it depends on what you mean by "cultivated".
Yes, I guess it's rather a vague phrasing on my part: I would say I don't think there was any plotting between the Trump and Putin camps, though I may be wrong. There may well have been Russian attempts to interfere in the 2016 election, but I haven't been following that enquiry since the initial flurry about it in the first half of Trump's term so I can't say how.
But Russian interference to bring about a Johnson premiereship seems implausible to me. How would he have done it: bribe Dominic Grieve and Mark Francois to keep voting down May's Brexit deal to force a change of PM? And then would he have wanted to sway the 2019 election against Corbyn, who to this day offers pro-Kremlin views even without being on the payroll?
If the west wanted a low cost way of causing massive financial uncertainty in Russia I am surprised they haven't deployed one of the UK most effective spreaders of misinformation and a man who single handed caused a run on a bank.....step forward Prof Robert Peston, Ukraine needs you.
To be clear, I made a typo on the prior post. Here's a quick clarification -
PJohnson and ANY OF HIS Putin dick-licking nature needs to be banned. The IP addresses were revealed by the site staff here earlier today, so this should be no shocker.
While I understand and get that it may be better to toy with them and let them in and distract them, consider it akin to a trojan-horse. While 95%+ of you posting are well-informed enough to see it as nonsense, those READING AND VIEWING this site may NOT.
This constitutes a major risk given the overall situation.
With this in mind, I ACTIVELY ENCOURAGE for PJohnson to be banned. This is part of their disinformation campaign and while the active posters here may not fall for it, some of those reading it MAY.
Ban him and have him replaced by Richard Head or similar. It is an ongoing activity dealing with the (troll) farmed output.
There is that, and I also understand the inevitable argument that it's better to debate it out and expose the lies of the latest Dick to register.
However, this is not a good look for those viewing. This is simply fuelling them and encouraging. Remove, get rid of and don't entertain.
MIGHT BE RUBBISH BUT STILL CAVEAT IN CASE PEOPLE HAVEN'T HEARD OF TWITTER
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 · 12s We found that Gazprom funded environmental NGOs that provided ministers to various governments, such as Belgium, which then advocated abandoning nuclear power,
One final thing about the debate with HYUFD. He/you don’t think the Baltic states should have been allowed into NATO. But they had no nuclear weapons and Russia would never have allowed it. So they would have no realistic prospect of defending their fledgling democracies against an expansionist Russia. (Given that they could expect no support outside the NATO umbrella ). So really they shouldn’t have bothered with independence in the first place?
'"I speak from a deep knowledge of history and human nature...my concern is humanity as a whole...many posters on here are superficial" in The fog of war – politicalbetting.com Comment by PJohnson February 27'
To be clear, I made a typo on the prior post. Here's a quick clarification -
PJohnson and ANY OF HIS Putin dick-licking nature needs to be banned. The IP addresses were revealed by the site staff here earlier today, so this should be no shocker.
While I understand and get that it may be better to toy with them and let them in and distract them, consider it akin to a trojan-horse. While 95%+ of you posting are well-informed enough to see it as nonsense, those READING AND VIEWING this site may NOT.
This constitutes a major risk given the overall situation.
With this in mind, I ACTIVELY ENCOURAGE for PJohnson to be banned. This is part of their disinformation campaign and while the active posters here may not fall for it, some of those reading it MAY.
To be fair, whilst i don't disagree, i think Mike once posted some evidence that the vast majority of people reading the site don't actually delve into the comments. And those that did would have to read all the ones pointing out he was a troll. It's not difficult to find this stuff all over the internet if you go looking for it.
Thanks for your recognition. From my personal experience it's quite difficult to, so for better or worse I'm barging in, haha
One final thing about the debate with HYUFD. He/you don’t think the Baltic states should have been allowed into NATO. But they had no nuclear weapons and Russia would never have allowed it. So they would have no realistic prospect of defending their fledgling democracies against an expansionist Russia. (Given that they could expect no support outside the NATO umbrella ). So really they shouldn’t have bothered with independence in the first place?
Well it was their decision to declare independence from the USSR, they were not in NATO when they did so and knew the risks
Putin is definitely to blame for where we are now and I hope he loses power.
There is an element of tragedy in Russia. If they had reformed effectively after the collapse of the Soviet Union to become a more modern state with corruption rooted out, they might have been invited or applied to join NATO as a valued and respected member.
One final thing about the debate with HYUFD. He/you don’t think the Baltic states should have been allowed into NATO. But they had no nuclear weapons and Russia would never have allowed it. So they would have no realistic prospect of defending their fledgling democracies against an expansionist Russia. (Given that they could expect no support outside the NATO umbrella ). So really they shouldn’t have bothered with independence in the first place?
Well it was their decision to declare independence from the USSR, they were not in NATO when they did so and knew the risks
I said if you were Thatcher's son she'd have you adopted.
One final thing about the debate with HYUFD. He/you don’t think the Baltic states should have been allowed into NATO. But they had no nuclear weapons and Russia would never have allowed it. So they would have no realistic prospect of defending their fledgling democracies against an expansionist Russia. (Given that they could expect no support outside the NATO umbrella ). So really they shouldn’t have bothered with independence in the first place?
Well it was their decision to declare independence from the USSR, they were not in NATO when they did so and knew the risks
I said if you were Thatcher's son she'd have you adopted.
Scrub that; she'd drown you.
They were never in NATO when John Major was PM and when Thatcher was PM NATO was just an alliance for western European defence
One final thing about the debate with HYUFD. He/you don’t think the Baltic states should have been allowed into NATO. But they had no nuclear weapons and Russia would never have allowed it. So they would have no realistic prospect of defending their fledgling democracies against an expansionist Russia. (Given that they could expect no support outside the NATO umbrella ). So really they shouldn’t have bothered with independence in the first place?
Well it was their decision to declare independence from the USSR, they were not in NATO when they did so and knew the risks
I said if you were Thatcher's son she'd have you adopted.
Scrub that; she'd drown you.
They were never in NATO when Thatcher was PM even though they declared independence about 6 months before she left office or even when John Major was PM
After rumours earlier, more reliable places are reporting an opposed Belarussian VDV parachute attack at 5am, which assuming the Belarussian VDV are only slightly more incompetent than the Russian VDV will result in 1/3rd getting shot down, 1/3rd surrendering as they land and realise it's not a training op, and the final third try to hitchhike to Russia after missing their landing spot and ending up 70 km north of Ankara.
One final thing about the debate with HYUFD. He/you don’t think the Baltic states should have been allowed into NATO. But they had no nuclear weapons and Russia would never have allowed it. So they would have no realistic prospect of defending their fledgling democracies against an expansionist Russia. (Given that they could expect no support outside the NATO umbrella ). So really they shouldn’t have bothered with independence in the first place?
Well it was their decision to declare independence from the USSR, they were not in NATO when they did so and knew the risks
I personally feel Russia should have been allowed into NATO when they were interested - but that ship has long since sailed.
Every country needs to pick it's own choice - that includes the Baltic states and they should be allowed that right.
Krys Ose 🇺🇦🌻 @KrysOse ·1h Large convoy of Russians outside of the city. We're not sure when they go in, probably early morning at 5 or 6 am again. Taking some rest. We'll be ready to defend Kyiv. If you don't hear from me again, I took some of them with me! https://twitter.com/KrysOse/status/1498088717000622083
Krys Ose 🇺🇦🌻 @KrysOse ·1h Large convoy of Russians outside of the city. We're not sure when they go in, probably early morning at 5 or 6 am again. Taking some rest. We'll be ready to defend Kyiv. If you don't hear from me again, I took some of them with me! https://twitter.com/KrysOse/status/1498088717000622083
It’s quite possible Russia will siege Kyiv, blocking food supplies and fresh water.
There seems to be an assumption a big battle for control will happen imminently. I’m not so sure.
After rumours earlier, more reliable places are reporting an opposed Belarussian VDV parachute attack at 5am, which assuming the Belarussian VDV are only slightly more incompetent than the Russian VDV will result in 1/3rd getting shot down, 1/3rd surrendering as they land and realise it's not a training op, and the final third try to hitchhike to Russia after missing their landing spot and ending up 70 km north of Ankara.
A substantive night time air drop is logistically difficult though a small set of stepping stone drops viable. Heliborne assault, physical landing at airstrip somewhere or drive-in by the bulk of such units is maybe more likely
Krys Ose 🇺🇦🌻 @KrysOse ·1h Large convoy of Russians outside of the city. We're not sure when they go in, probably early morning at 5 or 6 am again. Taking some rest. We'll be ready to defend Kyiv. If you don't hear from me again, I took some of them with me! https://twitter.com/KrysOse/status/1498088717000622083
It’s quite possible Russia will siege Kyiv, blocking food supplies and fresh water.
There seems to be an assumption a big battle for control will happen imminently. I’m not so sure.
A siege takes more time. I thought Putin ranted that Kyiv must fall by Tuesday?
"EDWARD LUCAS | COMMENT Putin’s botched invasion may be his downfall Russian leader is not winning his ill-conceived, risky war in Ukraine and mounting problems there could spell his end" (£)
Putin is definitely to blame for where we are now and I hope he loses power.
There is an element of tragedy in Russia. If they had reformed effectively after the collapse of the Soviet Union to become a more modern state with corruption rooted out, they might have been invited or applied to join NATO as a valued and respected member.
Elimination of corruption and being a reformed, modern state is a precondition of NATO membership? Have you perused the list of members?
(I agree with your basic point. But the mistakes in the 1990s were far from Russia’s fault alone.)
Putin is definitely to blame for where we are now and I hope he loses power.
There is an element of tragedy in Russia. If they had reformed effectively after the collapse of the Soviet Union to become a more modern state with corruption rooted out, they might have been invited or applied to join NATO as a valued and respected member.
Elimination of corruption and being a reformed, modern state is a precondition of NATO membership? Have you perused the list of members?
(I agree with your basic point. But the mistakes in the 1990s were far from Russia’s fault alone.)
'mistakes'
The issue there is that we are not dealing with a 'good' actor. Putin wants an expansionist Russia. That is fundamentally against our interests. There is a good chance that whatever we did historically, we would have ended up here or hereabouts - because Putin and his apologists would find some reason to take umbrage. Some excuse.
The only way to avoid this is to give Putin and Russia everything they want.
1/2) We are aware that Aeroflot flight 111 violated the prohibition put in place earlier today on Russian flights using Canadian airspace.
2/2) We are launching a review of the conduct of Aeroflot and the independent air navigation service provider, NAVCAN, leading up to this violation. We will not hesitate to take appropriate enforcement action and other measures to prevent future violations.
'"I speak from a deep knowledge of history and human nature...my concern is humanity as a whole...many posters on here are superficial" in The fog of war – politicalbetting.com Comment by PJohnson February 27'
Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.
LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.
Bigger LOL at what’s about to happen as the markets in Moscow open. ATMs in Russia out of cash already, and banks unofficially selling dollars at double the official exchange rate. Let’s see how long those currency reserves last, in the face of an international assault on the ruble.
In a string of phone calls from a besieged Kyiv, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has persuaded the west to agree to a set of sanctions against Russia that were inconceivable a week ago.
Sensing how European public opinion is responding to the bravery of his people, Zelenskiy has been constantly on the phone to western leaders, using his Twitter feed to cajole, encourage, scold and praise his allies. In the process, sanctions regarded as unthinkable a week ago have become a moral baseline. The pace at which the west has been agreeing to the new sanctions has also left the lawyers, officials and bankers gasping for air, officials admit, as they work under severe pressure to turn headlines into reality.
One leader’s office said: “We are in awe of him. He may not eventually be able to save Ukraine, or change Russia, but he is changing Europe.”
Relevant to some of the stuff being copied here, perhaps?
A Twitter spokesperson said it had also suspended more than a dozen accounts and blocked the sharing of several links for violating its rules against platform manipulation and spam.
It said its ongoing investigation indicated the accounts originated in Russia and were attempting to disrupt the public conversation around the conflict in Ukraine.
In a blog post on Monday, Meta attributed the hacking efforts to a group known as Ghostwriter, which it said successfully gained access to the targets’ social media accounts.
Meta said the hackers attempted to post YouTube videos from the accounts portraying Ukrainian troops as weakened, including one video which claimed to show Ukrainian soldiers coming out of a forest and flying a white flag of surrender
My Russian bank is offering dollars at the rate of 166 rubles. The 120 ruble rate they had last night, or 130 ruble rate they had 45 minutes ago, was a steal by comparison
1/2) We are aware that Aeroflot flight 111 violated the prohibition put in place earlier today on Russian flights using Canadian airspace.
2/2) We are launching a review of the conduct of Aeroflot and the independent air navigation service provider, NAVCAN, leading up to this violation. We will not hesitate to take appropriate enforcement action and other measures to prevent future violations.
Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.
LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.
The only other EU Fulcrum operators are Bulgaria and Slovakia. They are both in the process of transitioning to the F-16V and might be persuadable if the US backfills with F-16C/CJ from the boneyard as they are doing for Poland.
It is now just past 8am in Kyiv, and residents of the Ukrainian capital are now free to leave the underground shelters they have been staying in, as a weekend-long curfew is lifted.
Grocery stories will be allowed to open and public transport will start running, although subway trains will run much less often than usual.
The weekend saw repeated blasts, those appeared to be mostly contained on the outskirts of central Kyiv. A feared onslaught of Russian missiles on the city centre did not materialise, and the capital remains in Ukraine's hands.
However, Kyiv officials have warned the war is far from over, as street fighting continues in almost every district of the city. State officials say that those in Kyiv will wake up to see a cityscape that is vastly different from what they are used to.
"When you leave the city after 8am, you will see fortifications, anti-tank hedgehogs and other fortifications that have appeared on the streets of Kyiv," the Kyiv City State Administration said."
It is now just past 8am in Kyiv, and residents of the Ukrainian capital are now free to leave the underground shelters they have been staying in, as a weekend-long curfew is lifted.
Grocery stories will be allowed to open and public transport will start running, although subway trains will run much less often than usual.
The weekend saw repeated blasts, those appeared to be mostly contained on the outskirts of central Kyiv. A feared onslaught of Russian missiles on the city centre did not materialise, and the capital remains in Ukraine's hands.
However, Kyiv officials have warned the war is far from over, as street fighting continues in almost every district of the city. State officials say that those in Kyiv will wake up to see a cityscape that is vastly different from what they are used to.
"When you leave the city after 8am, you will see fortifications, anti-tank hedgehogs and other fortifications that have appeared on the streets of Kyiv," the Kyiv City State Administration said."
Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.
LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.
The only other EU Fulcrum operators are Bulgaria and Slovakia. They are both in the process of transitioning to the F-16V and might be persuadable if the US backfills with F-16C/CJ from the boneyard as they are doing for Poland.
Interested in your assessment of how well/badly this is going for Russia @Dura_Ace
I am mindful that the apparent slowness of the Russian invasion may just be us believing what we wish would happen, is happening.
It is now just past 8am in Kyiv, and residents of the Ukrainian capital are now free to leave the underground shelters they have been staying in, as a weekend-long curfew is lifted.
Grocery stories will be allowed to open and public transport will start running, although subway trains will run much less often than usual.
The weekend saw repeated blasts, those appeared to be mostly contained on the outskirts of central Kyiv. A feared onslaught of Russian missiles on the city centre did not materialise, and the capital remains in Ukraine's hands.
However, Kyiv officials have warned the war is far from over, as street fighting continues in almost every district of the city. State officials say that those in Kyiv will wake up to see a cityscape that is vastly different from what they are used to.
"When you leave the city after 8am, you will see fortifications, anti-tank hedgehogs and other fortifications that have appeared on the streets of Kyiv," the Kyiv City State Administration said."
Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.
LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.
The only other EU Fulcrum operators are Bulgaria and Slovakia. They are both in the process of transitioning to the F-16V and might be persuadable if the US backfills with F-16C/CJ from the boneyard as they are doing for Poland.
Interested in your assessment of how well/badly this is going for Russia @Dura_Ace
I have no clue and anybody that tells you they do is bullshitting.
The only notable fact is that the Russians, for some as yet unknown reason, did not play to their strengths and use massed long range fires as they did in Chechnya and Georgia. They went for US style high tempo maneuvering attacks without pulverising the area with artillery first. We'd have to know what the plan and the goals were before we could say whether its working or not.
Nations are ultimately built on stories. Each passing day adds more stories that Ukrainians will tell not only in the dark days ahead, but in the decades and generations to come. The president who refused to flee the capital, telling the US that he needs ammunition, not a ride; the soldiers from Snake Island who told a Russian warship to “go fuck yourself”; the civilians who tried to stop Russian tanks by sitting in their path. This is the stuff nations are built from. In the long run, these stories count for more than tanks.
Interested in your assessment of how well/badly this is going for Russia @Dura_Ace
I have no clue and anybody that tells you they do is bullshitting.
The only notable fact is that the Russians, for some as yet unknown reason, did not play to their strengths and use massed long range fires as they did in Chechnya and Georgia. They went for US style high tempo maneuvering attacks without pulverising the area with artillery first. We'd have to know what the plan and the goals were before we could say whether its working or not.
NEW: report coming from eastern Ukraine from the Gorlovka's Self-Defence Urban community (via VK) that the Self-declared Donetsk People's Republic leader Pushilin has suspended full mobilization of forces
Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.
LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.
Bigger LOL at what’s about to happen as the markets in Moscow open. ATMs in Russia out of cash already, and banks unofficially selling dollars at double the official exchange rate. Let’s see how long those currency reserves last, in the face of an international assault on the ruble.
For an invasion that was supposed to depend on speed, this isn't very speedy.
Konstantin Kisin said in a couple of interviews last week that the war in Ukraine offers the west the opportunity for the west (and western liberalism) to rediscover its purpose. He said that it is impossible to tell whether people would fight for their freedom, democracy and prosperity or just give up - until they were tested. The situation in Ukraine means that we would see what happens. Whilst pessimistic, he said that it was not a dead cert that the west would fold and give up.
As much as Putin has been our adversary, his actions seem to have provoked the start of the exact renaissance that Kisin speculated over 3 days ago. It does feel like the start of a truly historic shift in the course of European history.
I mentioned that Charlie Banner QC donated 16.5k to Ukraine last week. He said it was a fee for one case, so a weeks work for him; and called for everyone else to send this weeks wages to Ukraine. I'm going to do the same.
5th day of Putin's war on Ukraine. RU &UA talks today. Ruble record low as RU Central Bank weakened. Assets of Russian oligarchs in EU & U.K no longer safe. U.K. launches Economic Crime Bill. Kharkiv still under Ukrainian control. Germany a different country. Quiet otherwise.
Do some people really think that the difference between Putin deciding to destroy the world or not is really going to come down to the technicalities of NATO membership?
Had Ukraine not tried to join NATO Putin would likely not have invaded it in the first place.
NATO should not have tried to absorb the old nations of the USSR
You're on the wrong side.
It's also stupid. Putin has said time and again he wants to re-establish a greater Russian empire. He's said Ukraine isn't a real country. Sovereignty is whatever he decides it is when he feels like it. Did Zelensky going on about Nato membership push him over the edge? Possibly. But the fundamental problem was always there. He demands submission. Ukrainians will never submit to his rule.
Exactly right. The only stable outcomes of this situation involve Putin not being in power. For all HYUFD goes on about realpolitik, he's basically defending the position of a man whose approach to international relations is to spread propaganda about gays and Jews corrupting the West and how Russia is the last bastion of Christian purity. I mean, if that's not a moral crusade, and a lunatic one too, then what is? Realpolitik and Putin are polar opposites.
HYUFD is really all over the place here. He has no idea, absolutely no fucking clue at all, what he's talking about and it's kind of embarrassing to see it. I normally take pleasure in shooting his stupider arguments out of the barrel, but honestly, this Putinist turn is just a bit sad and tawdry.
Rubbish.
It is not being pro Putin to want to avoid the UK being drawn into a nuclear war.
Which based on Putin's statements there would be at least a 50% chance of if we went to war with Russia over Ukraine, a non NATO nation.
I support economic sanctions against Putin, I do not support war unless he goes beyond Ukraine and invades NATO nations
You are making pro-Putin arguments, 100% you are. You portray arguments for containment as provocative and instead argue for "realpolitik". But when somebody puts to you that this will both encourage nuclear proliferation AND the fact that Putin is on a moral crusade, you go silent about realpolitik. You can't have it both ways. Realpolitik is about doing what's practical. You just want to pay the Danegeld and hope it makes the Dane go away. And you're offering a whole country.
Either you know that Putin won't stop at Ukraine, in which case all you're doing is emboldening the Kremlin... or you don't realise that his Eurasian strategy has talked about EXACTLY THIS kind of unilateral annexation of former Russian Empire states.
Whether you're attempting to sell out Ukraine for a few weeks of feeling less anxious, or you're ignorant of what Putin stands for despite the long pattern of his actions, I don't know. I suspect your are ignorant and that is also the most charitable reading. But either way, you're badly, badly wrong.
Incidentally, I think it's time to remind everyone what you said a few short days ago. In order to defend some rubbish or other you'd come out with, you ended up claiming that Russia is a democracy. That there is your level of ignorance or delusion on the subject. You are massively and tragically out of your depth here.
Had Ukraine not tried to join NATO Putin would likely not have invaded it in the first place.
NATO should not have tried to absorb the old nations of the USSR
That's buying into Putin's argument that NATO expansion 25 years ago was a sufficient provocation as to require war. Boris, rightly, says there was no excuse. You've argued otherwise above.
I know you love to toss and turn, and argue interpretations and definitions, but you said the above and it was one of the most shocking things I've ever seen you write. You always mean precisely what you say, you've always been clear about that as a matter of integrity, even if it was an unpopular view.
The same applies here - you believe a pro-Putin pretext, no ifs ands or buts. You may not support him in all things, but you do support him in that view.
That saddens me more than anything else. It's not a desire to pile on or anything of the kind. But you went pro-Putin.
That is not a pro Putin argument. It is political reality.
NATO was originally created as a defensive organisation to defend Western Europe.
It then expanded to take in East Germany, Poland and Hungary and the Czech Republic after the Cold War ended.
It is the expansion of NATO even beyond that to try and absorb the old states of the USSR which has left Russia feeling encircled and threatened and gone way beyond its original aims. That is not a pro Putin statement, it is reality, whether you like it or not that NATO has turned from a defensive organisation to in many Russians eyes, not just Putin's, an aggressive and expansionist organisation
Why does Russia “feeling encircled and threatened” justify it invading another sovereign country?
Speaking as a lurker, PJohnson needs to be banned. They're clearly a troll, as exhibited by the IP address reveal of them from a spam farm.
The justification to not ban is not valid. Why? Because while those posting on this site may well be well-informed enough to speak against, those READING AND VIEWING this site are far more. From my own experience I have spoken to several people who actively read this site and it's comments and do not reply nor register an account.
With this in mind, I ACTIVELY ENCOURAGE for PJohnson to be banned. This is part of their disinformation campaign and while the active posters here may not fall for it, some of those reading it MAY.
May I suggest as one of your first posts here you do not try and get other posters banned.
PJohnson is perfectly entitled to express his view, even if not a popular one, as long as he expresses it in a civil fashion
Interested in your assessment of how well/badly this is going for Russia @Dura_Ace
I have no clue and anybody that tells you they do is bullshitting.
The only notable fact is that the Russians, for some as yet unknown reason, did not play to their strengths and use massed long range fires as they did in Chechnya and Georgia. They went for US style high tempo maneuvering attacks without pulverising the area with artillery first. We'd have to know what the plan and the goals were before we could say whether its working or not.
Yes indeed.
If you contrast this with Operation Desert Storm it's very stark. Over a six-week period preceding the ground invasion the US and allies flew more than 116,000 combat air sorties and dropped 88,500 tons of bombs. When the main assault began it was preceded by 2.5 hours 90,000 round bombardment.
We heard that Putin's generals were concerned all along that this was a dicey operation which was the main reason I doubted he would go ahead.
Perhaps he assumed that they would waltz into Ukraine and be welcomed with open arms?
Interested in your assessment of how well/badly this is going for Russia @Dura_Ace
I have no clue and anybody that tells you they do is bullshitting.
The only notable fact is that the Russians, for some as yet unknown reason, did not play to their strengths and use massed long range fires as they did in Chechnya and Georgia. They went for US style high tempo maneuvering attacks without pulverising the area with artillery first. We'd have to know what the plan and the goals were before we could say whether its working or not.
My assumption would be that they feared the level of opprobrium that would follow - clearly of course that ship has now sailed. Alternatively, Chinese pressure behind the scenes? Thirdly, they have no clue what they are doing? Not sure which is the most worrying.
Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.
LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.
The only other EU Fulcrum operators are Bulgaria and Slovakia. They are both in the process of transitioning to the F-16V and might be persuadable if the US backfills with F-16C/CJ from the boneyard as they are doing for Poland.
Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.
LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.
Bigger LOL at what’s about to happen as the markets in Moscow open. ATMs in Russia out of cash already, and banks unofficially selling dollars at double the official exchange rate. Let’s see how long those currency reserves last, in the face of an international assault on the ruble.
For an invasion that was supposed to depend on speed, this isn't very speedy.
People who know Putin best are most worried about the nuclear threat according to the former US Ambassador to Moscow. Is it possible that if Putin has failed to get what he wants, he's prepared to take the world with him?
At that point the best thing might be mass protests in Moscow. After all what would they have to lose.
Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.
LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.
Bigger LOL at what’s about to happen as the markets in Moscow open. ATMs in Russia out of cash already, and banks unofficially selling dollars at double the official exchange rate. Let’s see how long those currency reserves last, in the face of an international assault on the ruble.
For an invasion that was supposed to depend on speed, this isn't very speedy.
Basically the Ukraine’s military was a basket case in 2014 but it isn’t now. And Russia weren’t paying attention.
Also when you have 1 or 2 target cities in a country with a population of 1-3 million it’s easy to use shock and awe.
That’s not so easy with a country of 44 million and multiple cities - basically Russia bit off more than it can chew and once Ukraine fought back doesn’t have a plan.
People who know Putin best are most worried about the nuclear threat according to the former US Ambassador to Moscow. Is it possible that if Putin has failed to get what he wants, he's prepared to take the world with him?
At that point the best thing might be mass protests in Moscow. After all what would they have to lose.
The protests in Moscow might happen before then anyway. "Comrades, to assist Great Patriotic War for Liberation of Ukraine, we have stolen all your savings..."
Interested in your assessment of how well/badly this is going for Russia @Dura_Ace
I have no clue and anybody that tells you they do is bullshitting.
The only notable fact is that the Russians, for some as yet unknown reason, did not play to their strengths and use massed long range fires as they did in Chechnya and Georgia. They went for US style high tempo maneuvering attacks without pulverising the area with artillery first. We'd have to know what the plan and the goals were before we could say whether its working or not.
Yes indeed.
If you contrast this with Operation Desert Storm it's very stark. Over a six-week period preceding the ground invasion the US and allies flew more than 116,000 combat air sorties and dropped 88,500 tons of bombs. When the main assault began it was preceded by 2.5 hours 90,000 round bombardment.
We heard that Putin's generals were concerned all along that this was a dicey operation which was the main reason I doubted he would go ahead.
Perhaps he assumed that they would waltz into Ukraine and be welcomed with open arms?
Is there a small chance that it might be like the Dardanelles campaign? AIUI (and I daresay Dr Y would correct), an initial perhaps workable plan was watered down to a much smaller operation for a variety of reasons, good and bad. The watering down meant that it became almost doomed to failure.
Might the Russians have had a much stronger plan, but were forced to downsize it for reasons of material, political convenience or cost?
Apparently the Ukrainians have launched a substantive flanking ambush on a large Russian column NW of Kiev.
This is becoming a problem. Where is the helicopter and fast jet cover?
That three mile column has to get up a narrow road. A few halted vehicles from combat or even breakdown makes for a mighty traffic jam. Not easy to bypass either in the marshes.
When I visited the Soviet Union in the early 80s there was an official rate of exchange and an unofficial or street rate of exchange which was roughly 3x more roubles to the pound or dollar. This was because the Soviet Union was not integrated into the world economy at that time. Russia seems to be heading back to that and it will be incredibly painful. The developments in sanctions over the weekend are like nothing we have ever seen to a fully integrated economy. No doubt they will find work arounds etc but their domestic economy is in serious danger of collapse.
Which frankly makes me wonder if there is value in the no side of this bet.
But important not to lose sight that the government have shown enormous courage in leading public opinion over Ukraine. Support for military action of any kind is very lukewarm in this country. Their proactive stance has, it appears, fundamentally changed the world and arrested the decadant and cowardly stance of much of Europe. Boris Johnson has become an unlikely folk hero in Ukraine. The issue of refugees is one where concessions can be made to public opinion without losing ground on the 'bigger picture'. The action they need to take is on visas for people with family (or other close) connections.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells @SkyNews that unless properly trained, Brits are better off helping Ukraine by other means than travelling there to fight, watering down what Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said Sunday https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1498195752111255561
Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.
LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.
Bigger LOL at what’s about to happen as the markets in Moscow open. ATMs in Russia out of cash already, and banks unofficially selling dollars at double the official exchange rate. Let’s see how long those currency reserves last, in the face of an international assault on the ruble.
For an invasion that was supposed to depend on speed, this isn't very speedy.
Basically the Ukraine’s military was a basket case in 2014 but it isn’t now. And Russia weren’t paying attention.
Also when you have 1 or 2 target cities in a country with a population of 1-3 million it’s easy to use shock and awe.
That’s not so easy with a country of 44 million and multiple cities - basically Russia bit off more than it can chew and once Ukraine fought back doesn’t have a plan.
It genuinely does appear that the Russian planners thought they’d be greeted with flags waving and happy people, cheering them on all the way to Kiev - much as happened in Crimea and parts of the Donbass eight years ago.
They missed the bit about the NATO countries sending weapons and training for the past few months, and Zelensky making it quite clear that an invasion would be countered in the strongest possible way.
They tried the soft invasion, and it’s resulted in nothing but thousands of casualties and destroyed equipment. They now have a choice, to either back off or start bombing the hell out of Ukraine - with the background of their home economy being crippled by sanctions, and almost no domestic support for the action. It’s going to be fingers very much crossed for the next few days, that common sense might prevail.
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
Interested in your assessment of how well/badly this is going for Russia @Dura_Ace
I have no clue and anybody that tells you they do is bullshitting.
The only notable fact is that the Russians, for some as yet unknown reason, did not play to their strengths and use massed long range fires as they did in Chechnya and Georgia. They went for US style high tempo maneuvering attacks without pulverising the area with artillery first. We'd have to know what the plan and the goals were before we could say whether its working or not.
If this is working, then it was a pretty odd plan. Plans change in response to circumstances, of course.
Comments
But Russian interference to bring about a Johnson premiereship seems implausible to me. How would he have done it: bribe Dominic Grieve and Mark Francois to keep voting down May's Brexit deal to force a change of PM? And then would he have wanted to sway the 2019 election against Corbyn, who to this day offers pro-Kremlin views even without being on the payroll?
However, this is not a good look for those viewing. This is simply fuelling them and encouraging. Remove, get rid of and don't entertain.
They funneled massive amounts of money into pushing disinformation about fracking too.
There is an element of tragedy in Russia. If they had reformed effectively after the collapse of the Soviet Union to become a more modern state with corruption rooted out, they might have been invited or applied to join NATO as a valued and respected member.
Scrub that; she'd drown you.
After rumours earlier, more reliable places are reporting an opposed Belarussian VDV parachute attack at 5am, which assuming the Belarussian VDV are only slightly more incompetent than the Russian VDV will result in 1/3rd getting shot down, 1/3rd surrendering as they land and realise it's not a training op, and the final third try to hitchhike to Russia after missing their landing spot and ending up 70 km north of Ankara.
Every country needs to pick it's own choice - that includes the Baltic states and they should be allowed that right.
@KrysOse
·1h
Large convoy of Russians outside of the city. We're not sure when they go in, probably early morning at 5 or 6 am again. Taking some rest. We'll be ready to defend Kyiv. If you don't hear from me again, I took some of them with me!
https://twitter.com/KrysOse/status/1498088717000622083
This is becoming a problem. Where is the helicopter and fast jet cover?
There seems to be an assumption a big battle for control will happen imminently. I’m not so sure.
I thought Putin ranted that Kyiv must fall by Tuesday?
Putin’s botched invasion may be his downfall
Russian leader is not winning his ill-conceived, risky war in Ukraine and mounting problems there could spell his end" (£)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putins-botched-invasion-may-be-his-downfall-rrzc8qxtg
(I agree with your basic point. But the mistakes in the 1990s were far from Russia’s fault alone.)
The issue there is that we are not dealing with a 'good' actor. Putin wants an expansionist Russia. That is fundamentally against our interests. There is a good chance that whatever we did historically, we would have ended up here or hereabouts - because Putin and his apologists would find some reason to take umbrage. Some excuse.
The only way to avoid this is to give Putin and Russia everything they want.
1/2) We are aware that Aeroflot flight 111 violated the prohibition put in place earlier today on Russian flights using Canadian airspace.
2/2) We are launching a review of the conduct of Aeroflot and the independent air navigation service provider, NAVCAN, leading up to this violation. We will not hesitate to take appropriate enforcement action and other measures to prevent future violations.
https://twitter.com/Transport_gc/status/1498131269011525633
LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.
Bigger LOL at what’s about to happen as the markets in Moscow open. ATMs in Russia out of cash already, and banks unofficially selling dollars at double the official exchange rate. Let’s see how long those currency reserves last, in the face of an international assault on the ruble.
Sensing how European public opinion is responding to the bravery of his people, Zelenskiy has been constantly on the phone to western leaders, using his Twitter feed to cajole, encourage, scold and praise his allies. In the process, sanctions regarded as unthinkable a week ago have become a moral baseline. The pace at which the west has been agreeing to the new sanctions has also left the lawyers, officials and bankers gasping for air, officials admit, as they work under severe pressure to turn headlines into reality.
One leader’s office said: “We are in awe of him. He may not eventually be able to save Ukraine, or change Russia, but he is changing Europe.”
A Twitter spokesperson said it had also suspended more than a dozen accounts and blocked the sharing of several links for violating its rules against platform manipulation and spam.
It said its ongoing investigation indicated the accounts originated in Russia and were attempting to disrupt the public conversation around the conflict in Ukraine.
In a blog post on Monday, Meta attributed the hacking efforts to a group known as Ghostwriter, which it said successfully gained access to the targets’ social media accounts.
Meta said the hackers attempted to post YouTube videos from the accounts portraying Ukrainian troops as weakened, including one video which claimed to show Ukrainian soldiers coming out of a forest and flying a white flag of surrender
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498168570123063298
https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1497947330770841604
European politics is changed forever, I think.
https://twitter.com/AppleHelix/status/1498097786507739141
I just wonder why do they bother? No one on here is going to be convinced by that rubbish imo.
The financial crisis in Russia could be worse than 1998 apparently.
Pleasing to see it hasn't been too bad a night in Ukraine.
It is now just past 8am in Kyiv, and residents of the Ukrainian capital are now free to leave the underground shelters they have been staying in, as a weekend-long curfew is lifted.
Grocery stories will be allowed to open and public transport will start running, although subway trains will run much less often than usual.
The weekend saw repeated blasts, those appeared to be mostly contained on the outskirts of central Kyiv. A feared onslaught of Russian missiles on the city centre did not materialise, and the capital remains in Ukraine's hands.
However, Kyiv officials have warned the war is far from over, as street fighting continues in almost every district of the city. State officials say that those in Kyiv will wake up to see a cityscape that is vastly different from what they are used to.
"When you leave the city after 8am, you will see fortifications, anti-tank hedgehogs and other fortifications that have appeared on the streets of Kyiv," the Kyiv City State Administration said."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877
Who is involved in the street fighting? Are these advanced Russian forces? Or 5th columnists? Just curious.
And did the Ukrainians not do it until now because it didn't occur to them before now that they could really keep the Russians out?
I am mindful that the apparent slowness of the Russian invasion may just be us believing what we wish would happen, is happening.
"- Clashes with saboteur groups overnight in Kyiv but grocery shops will open from 0800"
https://twitter.com/JamWaterhouse/status/1498171733811019781?s=20&t=zoz2AVrFIsVv0YFT54lETw
https://twitter.com/hendopolis?lang=en-gb
The only notable fact is that the Russians, for some as yet unknown reason, did not play to their strengths and use massed long range fires as they did in Chechnya and Georgia. They went for US style high tempo maneuvering attacks without pulverising the area with artillery first. We'd have to know what the plan and the goals were before we could say whether its working or not.
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1498184969046441986
As much as Putin has been our adversary, his actions seem to have provoked the start of the exact renaissance that Kisin speculated over 3 days ago. It does feel like the start of a truly historic shift in the course of European history.
This is lot more exciting than the war on woke.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/helpukraine
The ‘street rate’ isn’t close to that optimistic though, reports of 150 to 170 in Moscow.
https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1498187055272284161
None of us are entitled to anything
What, you mean I am already?
If you contrast this with Operation Desert Storm it's very stark. Over a six-week period preceding the ground invasion the US and allies flew more than 116,000 combat air sorties and dropped 88,500 tons of bombs. When the main assault began it was preceded by 2.5 hours 90,000 round bombardment.
We heard that Putin's generals were concerned all along that this was a dicey operation which was the main reason I doubted he would go ahead.
Perhaps he assumed that they would waltz into Ukraine and be welcomed with open arms?
A shame that something so beautiful was created for such an ugly purpose.
There are multiple topics that they need to reflect deeply on
At that point the best thing might be mass protests in Moscow. After all what would they have to lose.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-60541028
We really need to pull our finger out. 'Nothing we can do' should be words that are banished.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1498191436331761664
To prevent Central Bank deploying reserves "in ways that undermine the impact of sanctions", the Chancellor says
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-statement-on-further-economic-sanctions-targeted-at-the-central-bank-of-the-russian-federation
FFS, Ukraine is fighting for survival and our news is worrying about nukes.
Terrible from Sky.
#UkraineWillResist @MSNBC https://twitter.com/kiraincongress/status/1498173512216948743/photo/1
Basically the Ukraine’s military was a basket case in 2014 but it isn’t now. And Russia weren’t paying attention.
Also when you have 1 or 2 target cities in a country with a population of 1-3 million it’s easy to use shock and awe.
That’s not so easy with a country of 44 million and multiple cities - basically Russia bit off more than it can chew and once Ukraine fought back doesn’t have a plan.
NBC News
@NBCNews · 15h
People stand in line to use an ATM machine in Saint Petersburg, Russia on Sunday.
http://nbcnews.to/3ssx6gB
https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1498144401180487682
Might the Russians have had a much stronger plan, but were forced to downsize it for reasons of material, political convenience or cost?
Essential reading for anyone interested in the extraordinary turn that Putin's war has inspired in German foreign & security policy. https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/policy-statement-by-olaf-scholz-chancellor-of-the-federal-republic-of-germany-and-member-of-the-german-bundestag-27-february-2022-in-berlin-2008378
Which frankly makes me wonder if there is value in the no side of this bet.
But important not to lose sight that the government have shown enormous courage in leading public opinion over Ukraine. Support for military action of any kind is very lukewarm in this country. Their proactive stance has, it appears, fundamentally changed the world and arrested the decadant and cowardly stance of much of Europe. Boris Johnson has become an unlikely folk hero in Ukraine. The issue of refugees is one where concessions can be made to public opinion without losing ground on the 'bigger picture'. The action they need to take is on visas for people with family (or other close) connections.
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1498195752111255561
They missed the bit about the NATO countries sending weapons and training for the past few months, and Zelensky making it quite clear that an invasion would be countered in the strongest possible way.
They tried the soft invasion, and it’s resulted in nothing but thousands of casualties and destroyed equipment. They now have a choice, to either back off or start bombing the hell out of Ukraine - with the background of their home economy being crippled by sanctions, and almost no domestic support for the action. It’s going to be fingers very much crossed for the next few days, that common sense might prevail.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498181493683802112
Plans change in response to circumstances, of course.