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In the betting, the money goes on Putin surviving – politicalbetting.com

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  • LDLFLDLF Posts: 159
    edited February 2022
    alex_ said:

    LDLF said:

    alex_ said:

    LDLF said:

    A 'palace coup' would be welcome but the current Russian elite (compared to other autocracies, let alone compared to any democratic country) is a very small group of people, partly by Putin's own design. If he goes, either the whole country collapses or his replacement is likely to be someone from the current regime.

    I don't think we should hope for any sort of regime change or even 'popular' uprising in Russia. No matter how awful the current regime, the one replacing it is, more often than not, worse.

    By the way, I know the Hitler comparisons are easy, but I see Putin as more of a Louis XIV type.

    P.S. I can't quite figure out if the earlier posts were just being satyrical, but no, Johnson has not been cultivated by Putin. I don't even think Trump was - '45' was just a useful idiot with a fetish for strongmen. If I could pick the most useful politician to the Russian president in the last decade, I would probably say Angela Merkel, whom all wise and sensible commentators and columnists cited as a model for British politicians, at least until the day before yesterday.

    I think you are totally wrong about Trump. The evidence is overwhelming.
    I could well be wrong on Trump, happy to defer on that.
    Trump just seems to me so innately pro-Putin that I don't think he was bribed/blackmailed to be so.
    I suppose it depends on what you mean by "cultivated".
    Yes, I guess it's rather a vague phrasing on my part: I would say I don't think there was any plotting between the Trump and Putin camps, though I may be wrong. There may well have been Russian attempts to interfere in the 2016 election, but I haven't been following that enquiry since the initial flurry about it in the first half of Trump's term so I can't say how.

    But Russian interference to bring about a Johnson premiereship seems implausible to me. How would he have done it: bribe Dominic Grieve and Mark Francois to keep voting down May's Brexit deal to force a change of PM? And then would he have wanted to sway the 2019 election against Corbyn, who to this day offers pro-Kremlin views even without being on the payroll?
  • philiph said:

    To be clear, I made a typo on the prior post. Here's a quick clarification -

    PJohnson and ANY OF HIS Putin dick-licking nature needs to be banned. The IP addresses were revealed by the site staff here earlier today, so this should be no shocker.

    While I understand and get that it may be better to toy with them and let them in and distract them, consider it akin to a trojan-horse. While 95%+ of you posting are well-informed enough to see it as nonsense, those READING AND VIEWING this site may NOT.

    This constitutes a major risk given the overall situation.

    With this in mind, I ACTIVELY ENCOURAGE for PJohnson to be banned. This is part of their disinformation campaign and while the active posters here may not fall for it, some of those reading it MAY.

    Ban him and have him replaced by Richard Head or similar.
    It is an ongoing activity dealing with the (troll) farmed output.
    There is that, and I also understand the inevitable argument that it's better to debate it out and expose the lies of the latest Dick to register.

    However, this is not a good look for those viewing. This is simply fuelling them and encouraging. Remove, get rid of and don't entertain.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,925

    MIGHT BE RUBBISH BUT STILL CAVEAT IN CASE PEOPLE HAVEN'T HEARD OF TWITTER


    Visegrád 24
    @visegrad24
    ·
    12s
    We found that Gazprom funded environmental NGOs that provided ministers to various governments, such as Belgium, which then advocated abandoning nuclear power,

    says Dominique Reynié, Institut Fondapol

    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1498100000362057728

    Oh, I'm sure that's true.

    They funneled massive amounts of money into pushing disinformation about fracking too.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    One final thing about the debate with HYUFD. He/you don’t think the Baltic states should have been allowed into NATO. But they had no nuclear weapons and Russia would never have allowed it. So they would have no realistic prospect of defending their fledgling democracies against an expansionist Russia. (Given that they could expect no support outside the NATO umbrella ). So really they shouldn’t have bothered with independence in the first place?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,830
    edited February 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My favourite PJohnson comment so far:

    '"I speak from a deep knowledge of history and human nature...my concern is humanity as a whole...many posters on here are superficial"
    in The fog of war – politicalbetting.com Comment by PJohnson February 27'

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/profile/comments/PJohnson

    I'm going to get politicalbetting t-shirts made with that comment front and center.

    £15.

    All profits go to Ukraine. Email me at my username@gmail.com
    Cup for Jezza P Johnson


  • alex_ said:

    To be clear, I made a typo on the prior post. Here's a quick clarification -

    PJohnson and ANY OF HIS Putin dick-licking nature needs to be banned. The IP addresses were revealed by the site staff here earlier today, so this should be no shocker.

    While I understand and get that it may be better to toy with them and let them in and distract them, consider it akin to a trojan-horse. While 95%+ of you posting are well-informed enough to see it as nonsense, those READING AND VIEWING this site may NOT.

    This constitutes a major risk given the overall situation.

    With this in mind, I ACTIVELY ENCOURAGE for PJohnson to be banned. This is part of their disinformation campaign and while the active posters here may not fall for it, some of those reading it MAY.

    To be fair, whilst i don't disagree, i think Mike once posted some evidence that the vast majority of people reading the site don't actually delve into the comments. And those that did would have to read all the ones pointing out he was a troll. It's not difficult to find this stuff all over the internet if you go looking for it.
    Thanks for your recognition. From my personal experience it's quite difficult to, so for better or worse I'm barging in, haha
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,275
    alex_ said:

    One final thing about the debate with HYUFD. He/you don’t think the Baltic states should have been allowed into NATO. But they had no nuclear weapons and Russia would never have allowed it. So they would have no realistic prospect of defending their fledgling democracies against an expansionist Russia. (Given that they could expect no support outside the NATO umbrella ). So really they shouldn’t have bothered with independence in the first place?

    Well it was their decision to declare independence from the USSR, they were not in NATO when they did so and knew the risks
  • Putin is definitely to blame for where we are now and I hope he loses power.

    There is an element of tragedy in Russia. If they had reformed effectively after the collapse of the Soviet Union to become a more modern state with corruption rooted out, they might have been invited or applied to join NATO as a valued and respected member.
  • HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    One final thing about the debate with HYUFD. He/you don’t think the Baltic states should have been allowed into NATO. But they had no nuclear weapons and Russia would never have allowed it. So they would have no realistic prospect of defending their fledgling democracies against an expansionist Russia. (Given that they could expect no support outside the NATO umbrella ). So really they shouldn’t have bothered with independence in the first place?

    Well it was their decision to declare independence from the USSR, they were not in NATO when they did so and knew the risks
    I said if you were Thatcher's son she'd have you adopted.

    Scrub that; she'd drown you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,275
    edited February 2022

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    One final thing about the debate with HYUFD. He/you don’t think the Baltic states should have been allowed into NATO. But they had no nuclear weapons and Russia would never have allowed it. So they would have no realistic prospect of defending their fledgling democracies against an expansionist Russia. (Given that they could expect no support outside the NATO umbrella ). So really they shouldn’t have bothered with independence in the first place?

    Well it was their decision to declare independence from the USSR, they were not in NATO when they did so and knew the risks
    I said if you were Thatcher's son she'd have you adopted.

    Scrub that; she'd drown you.
    They were never in NATO when John Major was PM and when Thatcher was PM NATO was just an alliance for western European defence
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    One final thing about the debate with HYUFD. He/you don’t think the Baltic states should have been allowed into NATO. But they had no nuclear weapons and Russia would never have allowed it. So they would have no realistic prospect of defending their fledgling democracies against an expansionist Russia. (Given that they could expect no support outside the NATO umbrella ). So really they shouldn’t have bothered with independence in the first place?

    Well it was their decision to declare independence from the USSR, they were not in NATO when they did so and knew the risks
    I said if you were Thatcher's son she'd have you adopted.

    Scrub that; she'd drown you.
    They were never in NATO when Thatcher was PM even though they declared independence about 6 months before she left office or even when John Major was PM
    Stop typing drivel.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited February 2022
    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498106694999711746

    After rumours earlier, more reliable places are reporting an opposed Belarussian VDV parachute attack at 5am, which assuming the Belarussian VDV are only slightly more incompetent than the Russian VDV will result in 1/3rd getting shot down, 1/3rd surrendering as they land and realise it's not a training op, and the final third try to hitchhike to Russia after missing their landing spot and ending up 70 km north of Ankara.
  • Mikest1982Mikest1982 Posts: 85
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    alex_ said:

    One final thing about the debate with HYUFD. He/you don’t think the Baltic states should have been allowed into NATO. But they had no nuclear weapons and Russia would never have allowed it. So they would have no realistic prospect of defending their fledgling democracies against an expansionist Russia. (Given that they could expect no support outside the NATO umbrella ). So really they shouldn’t have bothered with independence in the first place?

    Well it was their decision to declare independence from the USSR, they were not in NATO when they did so and knew the risks
    I personally feel Russia should have been allowed into NATO when they were interested - but that ship has long since sailed.

    Every country needs to pick it's own choice - that includes the Baltic states and they should be allowed that right.
  • Krys Ose 🇺🇦🌻
    @KrysOse
    ·1h
    Large convoy of Russians outside of the city. We're not sure when they go in, probably early morning at 5 or 6 am again. Taking some rest. We'll be ready to defend Kyiv. If you don't hear from me again, I took some of them with me!
    https://twitter.com/KrysOse/status/1498088717000622083
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,327
    Apparently the Ukrainians have launched a substantive flanking ambush on a large Russian column NW of Kiev.

    This is becoming a problem. Where is the helicopter and fast jet cover?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    Krys Ose 🇺🇦🌻
    @KrysOse
    ·1h
    Large convoy of Russians outside of the city. We're not sure when they go in, probably early morning at 5 or 6 am again. Taking some rest. We'll be ready to defend Kyiv. If you don't hear from me again, I took some of them with me!
    https://twitter.com/KrysOse/status/1498088717000622083

    It’s quite possible Russia will siege Kyiv, blocking food supplies and fresh water.

    There seems to be an assumption a big battle for control will happen imminently. I’m not so sure.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,327
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498106694999711746

    After rumours earlier, more reliable places are reporting an opposed Belarussian VDV parachute attack at 5am, which assuming the Belarussian VDV are only slightly more incompetent than the Russian VDV will result in 1/3rd getting shot down, 1/3rd surrendering as they land and realise it's not a training op, and the final third try to hitchhike to Russia after missing their landing spot and ending up 70 km north of Ankara.

    A substantive night time air drop is logistically difficult though a small set of stepping stone drops viable. Heliborne assault, physical landing at airstrip somewhere or drive-in by the bulk of such units is maybe more likely
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,169
    Yokes said:

    Apparently the Ukrainians have launched a substantive flanking ambush on a large Russian column NW of Kiev.

    This is becoming a problem. Where is the helicopter and fast jet cover?

    Is the amateurish Russian effort being caused by cock-up or conspiracy?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    ping said:

    Krys Ose 🇺🇦🌻
    @KrysOse
    ·1h
    Large convoy of Russians outside of the city. We're not sure when they go in, probably early morning at 5 or 6 am again. Taking some rest. We'll be ready to defend Kyiv. If you don't hear from me again, I took some of them with me!
    https://twitter.com/KrysOse/status/1498088717000622083

    It’s quite possible Russia will siege Kyiv, blocking food supplies and fresh water.

    There seems to be an assumption a big battle for control will happen imminently. I’m not so sure.
    A siege takes more time.
    I thought Putin ranted that Kyiv must fall by Tuesday?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,169
    edited February 2022
    "EDWARD LUCAS | COMMENT
    Putin’s botched invasion may be his downfall
    Russian leader is not winning his ill-conceived, risky war in Ukraine and mounting problems there could spell his end" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/putins-botched-invasion-may-be-his-downfall-rrzc8qxtg
  • Putin is definitely to blame for where we are now and I hope he loses power.

    There is an element of tragedy in Russia. If they had reformed effectively after the collapse of the Soviet Union to become a more modern state with corruption rooted out, they might have been invited or applied to join NATO as a valued and respected member.

    Elimination of corruption and being a reformed, modern state is a precondition of NATO membership? Have you perused the list of members?

    (I agree with your basic point. But the mistakes in the 1990s were far from Russia’s fault alone.)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Putin is definitely to blame for where we are now and I hope he loses power.

    There is an element of tragedy in Russia. If they had reformed effectively after the collapse of the Soviet Union to become a more modern state with corruption rooted out, they might have been invited or applied to join NATO as a valued and respected member.

    Elimination of corruption and being a reformed, modern state is a precondition of NATO membership? Have you perused the list of members?

    (I agree with your basic point. But the mistakes in the 1990s were far from Russia’s fault alone.)
    'mistakes'

    The issue there is that we are not dealing with a 'good' actor. Putin wants an expansionist Russia. That is fundamentally against our interests. There is a good chance that whatever we did historically, we would have ended up here or hereabouts - because Putin and his apologists would find some reason to take umbrage. Some excuse.

    The only way to avoid this is to give Putin and Russia everything they want.
  • Aeroflot trying it on:

    1/2) We are aware that Aeroflot flight 111 violated the prohibition put in place earlier today on Russian flights using Canadian airspace.

    2/2) We are launching a review of the conduct of Aeroflot and the independent air navigation service provider, NAVCAN, leading up to this violation. We will not hesitate to take appropriate enforcement action and other measures to prevent future violations.


    https://twitter.com/Transport_gc/status/1498131269011525633
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My favourite PJohnson comment so far:

    '"I speak from a deep knowledge of history and human nature...my concern is humanity as a whole...many posters on here are superficial"
    in The fog of war – politicalbetting.com Comment by PJohnson February 27'

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/profile/comments/PJohnson

    I'm going to get politicalbetting t-shirts made with that comment front and center.

    £15.

    All profits go to Ukraine. Email me at my username@gmail.com
    Cup for Jezza P Johnson


    The missing “for” makes all the difference….
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.

    LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.

    Bigger LOL at what’s about to happen as the markets in Moscow open. ATMs in Russia out of cash already, and banks unofficially selling dollars at double the official exchange rate. Let’s see how long those currency reserves last, in the face of an international assault on the ruble.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Relevant to some of the stuff being copied here, perhaps?

    A Twitter spokesperson said it had also suspended more than a dozen accounts and blocked the sharing of several links for violating its rules against platform manipulation and spam.

    It said its ongoing investigation indicated the accounts originated in Russia and were attempting to disrupt the public conversation around the conflict in Ukraine.

    In a blog post on Monday, Meta attributed the hacking efforts to a group known as Ghostwriter, which it said successfully gained access to the targets’ social media accounts.

    Meta said the hackers attempted to post YouTube videos from the accounts portraying Ukrainian troops as weakened, including one video which claimed to show Ukrainian soldiers coming out of a forest and flying a white flag of surrender
  • My Russian bank is offering dollars at the rate of 166 rubles. The 120 ruble rate they had last night, or 130 ruble rate they had 45 minutes ago, was a steal by comparison

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498168570123063298
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited February 2022
    ..
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited February 2022
    ...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Remarkable protests against the Russian invasion in European capitals yesterday.
    https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1497947330770841604

    European politics is changed forever, I think.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    IanB2 said:

    Aeroflot trying it on:

    1/2) We are aware that Aeroflot flight 111 violated the prohibition put in place earlier today on Russian flights using Canadian airspace.

    2/2) We are launching a review of the conduct of Aeroflot and the independent air navigation service provider, NAVCAN, leading up to this violation. We will not hesitate to take appropriate enforcement action and other measures to prevent future violations.


    https://twitter.com/Transport_gc/status/1498131269011525633

    I notice there’s a gap over Slovakia and Hungary (and thence Serbia) that the Russians can still fly through?
    Fly through... to where?
    Yes, I deleted my comment as they’d have to cross Ukraine first, which non military jets aren’t going to do.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    A simple explainer for @PJohnson in words they’ll understand.
    https://twitter.com/AppleHelix/status/1498097786507739141
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:

    Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.

    LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.

    The only other EU Fulcrum operators are Bulgaria and Slovakia. They are both in the process of transitioning to the F-16V and might be persuadable if the US backfills with F-16C/CJ from the boneyard as they are doing for Poland.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708
    Those odds seem rather depressing. Of course he has another couple of years in office technically.

    The financial crisis in Russia could be worse than 1998 apparently.

    Pleasing to see it hasn't been too bad a night in Ukraine.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited February 2022
    "Kyiv emerges from curfew as fighting continues

    It is now just past 8am in Kyiv, and residents of the Ukrainian capital are now free to leave the underground shelters they have been staying in, as a weekend-long curfew is lifted.

    Grocery stories will be allowed to open and public transport will start running, although subway trains will run much less often than usual.

    The weekend saw repeated blasts, those appeared to be mostly contained on the outskirts of central Kyiv. A feared onslaught of Russian missiles on the city centre did not materialise, and the capital remains in Ukraine's hands.

    However, Kyiv officials have warned the war is far from over, as street fighting continues in almost every district of the city. State officials say that those in Kyiv will wake up to see a cityscape that is vastly different from what they are used to.

    "When you leave the city after 8am, you will see fortifications, anti-tank hedgehogs and other fortifications that have appeared on the streets of Kyiv," the Kyiv City State Administration said."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

    Who is involved in the street fighting? Are these advanced Russian forces? Or 5th columnists? Just curious.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    "Kyiv emerges from curfew as fighting continues

    It is now just past 8am in Kyiv, and residents of the Ukrainian capital are now free to leave the underground shelters they have been staying in, as a weekend-long curfew is lifted.

    Grocery stories will be allowed to open and public transport will start running, although subway trains will run much less often than usual.

    The weekend saw repeated blasts, those appeared to be mostly contained on the outskirts of central Kyiv. A feared onslaught of Russian missiles on the city centre did not materialise, and the capital remains in Ukraine's hands.

    However, Kyiv officials have warned the war is far from over, as street fighting continues in almost every district of the city. State officials say that those in Kyiv will wake up to see a cityscape that is vastly different from what they are used to.

    "When you leave the city after 8am, you will see fortifications, anti-tank hedgehogs and other fortifications that have appeared on the streets of Kyiv," the Kyiv City State Administration said."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

    Who is involved in the street fighting? Are these advanced Russian forces? Or 5th columnists? Just curious.

    Was it part of the Russian plan to allow the Ukrainians five days to construct anti-tank fortifications?

    And did the Ukrainians not do it until now because it didn't occur to them before now that they could really keep the Russians out?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    I see @PJohnson has been banned. Fair enough, I guess, as clearly a Russian troll.

    I just wonder why do they bother? No one on here is going to be convinced by that rubbish imo.

    More that the temptation to feed the troll was irresistible & it was beginning to disrupt our normal semi-rational conversation ?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited February 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.

    LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.

    The only other EU Fulcrum operators are Bulgaria and Slovakia. They are both in the process of transitioning to the F-16V and might be persuadable if the US backfills with F-16C/CJ from the boneyard as they are doing for Poland.
    Interested in your assessment of how well/badly this is going for Russia @Dura_Ace

    I am mindful that the apparent slowness of the Russian invasion may just be us believing what we wish would happen, is happening.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708
    One person we've not heard from is Gorbachev. Is he still in good health? Last I saw of him was an interview from about 2018.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    edited February 2022
    Nigelb said:

    I see @PJohnson has been banned. Fair enough, I guess, as clearly a Russian troll.

    I just wonder why do they bother? No one on here is going to be convinced by that rubbish imo.

    More that the temptation to feed the troll was irresistible & it was beginning to disrupt our normal semi-rational conversation ?
    He gave me an idea that hadn't occurred to me - that Putin's missile-rattling was purely for use on Western social media.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited February 2022

    "Kyiv emerges from curfew as fighting continues

    It is now just past 8am in Kyiv, and residents of the Ukrainian capital are now free to leave the underground shelters they have been staying in, as a weekend-long curfew is lifted.

    Grocery stories will be allowed to open and public transport will start running, although subway trains will run much less often than usual.

    The weekend saw repeated blasts, those appeared to be mostly contained on the outskirts of central Kyiv. A feared onslaught of Russian missiles on the city centre did not materialise, and the capital remains in Ukraine's hands.

    However, Kyiv officials have warned the war is far from over, as street fighting continues in almost every district of the city. State officials say that those in Kyiv will wake up to see a cityscape that is vastly different from what they are used to.

    "When you leave the city after 8am, you will see fortifications, anti-tank hedgehogs and other fortifications that have appeared on the streets of Kyiv," the Kyiv City State Administration said."


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

    Who is involved in the street fighting? Are these advanced Russian forces? Or 5th columnists? Just curious.

    Ah, an apparent answer to my question:

    "- Clashes with saboteur groups overnight in Kyiv but grocery shops will open from 0800"

    https://twitter.com/JamWaterhouse/status/1498171733811019781?s=20&t=zoz2AVrFIsVv0YFT54lETw
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,925
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.

    LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.

    The only other EU Fulcrum operators are Bulgaria and Slovakia. They are both in the process of transitioning to the F-16V and might be persuadable if the US backfills with F-16C/CJ from the boneyard as they are doing for Poland.
    According to Forbes, Poland still has 30 Mig-29s - https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/11/06/time-to-kiss-the-mig-29-goodbye/?sh=312424386458
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    I see @PJohnson has been banned. Fair enough, I guess, as clearly a Russian troll.

    I just wonder why do they bother? No one on here is going to be convinced by that rubbish imo.

    More that the temptation to feed the troll was irresistible & it was beginning to disrupt our normal semi-rational conversation ?
    He gave me an idea that hadn't occurred to me - that Putin's missile-rattling was purely for use on Western social media.
    In which case most of are press are doing his bidding on that one.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis?lang=en-gb
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Dura_Ace said:


    Interested in your assessment of how well/badly this is going for Russia @Dura_Ace

    I have no clue and anybody that tells you they do is bullshitting.

    The only notable fact is that the Russians, for some as yet unknown reason, did not play to their strengths and use massed long range fires as they did in Chechnya and Georgia. They went for US style high tempo maneuvering attacks without pulverising the area with artillery first. We'd have to know what the plan and the goals were before we could say whether its working or not.
    Fair point. Thanks.
  • NEW: report coming from eastern Ukraine from the Gorlovka's Self-Defence Urban community (via VK) that the Self-declared Donetsk People's Republic leader Pushilin has suspended full mobilization of forces

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1498184969046441986
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,169
    Sandpit said:

    Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.

    LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.

    Bigger LOL at what’s about to happen as the markets in Moscow open. ATMs in Russia out of cash already, and banks unofficially selling dollars at double the official exchange rate. Let’s see how long those currency reserves last, in the face of an international assault on the ruble.

    For an invasion that was supposed to depend on speed, this isn't very speedy.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,317
    I mentioned that Charlie Banner QC donated 16.5k to Ukraine last week. He said it was a fee for one case, so a weeks work for him; and called for everyone else to send this weeks wages to Ukraine. I'm going to do the same.

    https://www.gofundme.com/f/helpukraine
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Ruble opens 25% down, 105 to the US$

    The ‘street rate’ isn’t close to that optimistic though, reports of 150 to 170 in Moscow.
  • 5th day of Putin's war on Ukraine. RU &UA talks today. Ruble record low as RU Central Bank weakened. Assets of Russian oligarchs in EU & U.K no longer safe. U.K. launches Economic Crime Bill. Kharkiv still under Ukrainian control. Germany a different country. Quiet otherwise.

    https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1498187055272284161
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,317
    rcs1000 said:

    I see @PJohnson has been banned. Fair enough, I guess, as clearly a Russian troll.

    I just wonder why do they bother? No one on here is going to be convinced by that rubbish imo.

    Personally I'm just flattered that the Russians chose our little blog for their disinformation efforts. It's like we've really made it.
    I think it was the right decision. There are so many posts it is difficult to keep up as it is, Pjohnson was an annoying distraction.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,169
    Reports that the Russian stockmarket will not open on time as usual.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    HYUFD said:

    Speaking as a lurker, PJohnson needs to be banned. They're clearly a troll, as exhibited by the IP address reveal of them from a spam farm.

    The justification to not ban is not valid. Why? Because while those posting on this site may well be well-informed enough to speak against, those READING AND VIEWING this site are far more. From my own experience I have spoken to several people who actively read this site and it's comments and do not reply nor register an account.

    With this in mind, I ACTIVELY ENCOURAGE for PJohnson to be banned. This is part of their disinformation campaign and while the active posters here may not fall for it, some of those reading it MAY.

    May I suggest as one of your first posts here you do not try and get other posters banned.

    PJohnson is perfectly entitled to express his view, even if not a popular one, as long as he expresses it in a civil fashion
    We are all here as guests of @MikeSmithson

    None of us are entitled to anything
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    I see @PJohnson has been banned. Fair enough, I guess, as clearly a Russian troll.

    I just wonder why do they bother? No one on here is going to be convinced by that rubbish imo.

    More that the temptation to feed the troll was irresistible & it was beginning to disrupt our normal semi-rational conversation ?
    He gave me an idea that hadn't occurred to me - that Putin's missile-rattling was purely for use on Western social media.
    In which case most of are press are doing his bidding on that one.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis?lang=en-gb
    Yes - I was struck by a witless BBC headline yesterday to the effect that this is what NATO was "frightened" of.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    darkage said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I see @PJohnson has been banned. Fair enough, I guess, as clearly a Russian troll.

    I just wonder why do they bother? No one on here is going to be convinced by that rubbish imo.

    Personally I'm just flattered that the Russians chose our little blog for their disinformation efforts. It's like we've really made it.
    I think it was the right decision. There are so many posts it is difficult to keep up as it is, Pjohnson was an annoying distraction.
    Oooh, oooh! Can I be an annoying distraction please?

    What, you mean I am already?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    rcs1000 said:

    I see @PJohnson has been banned. Fair enough, I guess, as clearly a Russian troll.

    I just wonder why do they bother? No one on here is going to be convinced by that rubbish imo.

    Personally I'm just flattered that the Russians chose our little blog for their disinformation efforts. It's like we've really made it.
    Are we getting a new name? PBski.com?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Dura_Ace said:


    Interested in your assessment of how well/badly this is going for Russia @Dura_Ace

    I have no clue and anybody that tells you they do is bullshitting.

    The only notable fact is that the Russians, for some as yet unknown reason, did not play to their strengths and use massed long range fires as they did in Chechnya and Georgia. They went for US style high tempo maneuvering attacks without pulverising the area with artillery first. We'd have to know what the plan and the goals were before we could say whether its working or not.
    Yes indeed.

    If you contrast this with Operation Desert Storm it's very stark. Over a six-week period preceding the ground invasion the US and allies flew more than 116,000 combat air sorties and dropped 88,500 tons of bombs. When the main assault began it was preceded by 2.5 hours 90,000 round bombardment.

    We heard that Putin's generals were concerned all along that this was a dicey operation which was the main reason I doubted he would go ahead.

    Perhaps he assumed that they would waltz into Ukraine and be welcomed with open arms?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    edited February 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Reports that the Russian stockmarket will not open on time as usual.

    The bankers and the brokers to sink Putin? Blackski Monday....
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    Dura_Ace said:


    Interested in your assessment of how well/badly this is going for Russia @Dura_Ace

    I have no clue and anybody that tells you they do is bullshitting.

    The only notable fact is that the Russians, for some as yet unknown reason, did not play to their strengths and use massed long range fires as they did in Chechnya and Georgia. They went for US style high tempo maneuvering attacks without pulverising the area with artillery first. We'd have to know what the plan and the goals were before we could say whether its working or not.
    My assumption would be that they feared the level of opprobrium that would follow - clearly of course that ship has now sailed. Alternatively, Chinese pressure behind the scenes? Thirdly, they have no clue what they are doing? Not sure which is the most worrying.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    rcs1000 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.

    LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.

    The only other EU Fulcrum operators are Bulgaria and Slovakia. They are both in the process of transitioning to the F-16V and might be persuadable if the US backfills with F-16C/CJ from the boneyard as they are doing for Poland.
    According to Forbes, Poland still has 30 Mig-29s - https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/11/06/time-to-kiss-the-mig-29-goodbye/?sh=312424386458
    IMV the Mig-29 is perhaps the most beautiful jet fighter ever made. It's sublime.

    A shame that something so beautiful was created for such an ugly purpose.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.

    LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.

    Bigger LOL at what’s about to happen as the markets in Moscow open. ATMs in Russia out of cash already, and banks unofficially selling dollars at double the official exchange rate. Let’s see how long those currency reserves last, in the face of an international assault on the ruble.

    For an invasion that was supposed to depend on speed, this isn't very speedy.
    Langsamerkrieg?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    Yokes said:

    Since Berlin appears on board, could someone have a word with Deutsche Bank?

    What about?

    There are multiple topics that they need to reflect deeply on
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    rcs1000 said:

    I see @PJohnson has been banned. Fair enough, I guess, as clearly a Russian troll.

    I just wonder why do they bother? No one on here is going to be convinced by that rubbish imo.

    Personally I'm just flattered that the Russians chose our little blog for their disinformation efforts. It's like we've really made it.
    I hope they didn't pay you in roubles.....
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,708
    People who know Putin best are most worried about the nuclear threat according to the former US Ambassador to Moscow. Is it possible that if Putin has failed to get what he wants, he's prepared to take the world with him?

    At that point the best thing might be mass protests in Moscow. After all what would they have to lose.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited February 2022
    Meanwhile a Russian oil tanker is due to dock in the Orkneys.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-60541028

    We really need to pull our finger out. 'Nothing we can do' should be words that are banished.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited February 2022



    At that point the best thing might be mass protests in Moscow. After all what would they have to lose.

    Or one of his generals puts a bullet in his head. Whoever had the courage to do that would be the rest of the world's friend for life.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    NEW Russian Central Bank raises key interest rates to 20% to contain rouble crash and impact on inflation
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1498191436331761664
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    NEW: Chancellor & Bank of England announce measures to cut off the Russian central bank - with US and EU, before markets open

    To prevent Central Bank deploying reserves "in ways that undermine the impact of sanctions", the Chancellor says


    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-statement-on-further-economic-sanctions-targeted-at-the-central-bank-of-the-russian-federation
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Heathener said:



    At that point the best thing might be mass protests in Moscow. After all what would they have to lose.

    Or one of his generals puts a bullet in his head. Whoever had the courage to do that would be the rest of the world's friend for life.
    What, all 1.5 minutes of it?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123

    Chris said:

    Nigelb said:

    I see @PJohnson has been banned. Fair enough, I guess, as clearly a Russian troll.

    I just wonder why do they bother? No one on here is going to be convinced by that rubbish imo.

    More that the temptation to feed the troll was irresistible & it was beginning to disrupt our normal semi-rational conversation ?
    He gave me an idea that hadn't occurred to me - that Putin's missile-rattling was purely for use on Western social media.
    In which case most of are press are doing his bidding on that one.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis?lang=en-gb
    Ben Wallace on Sky News. First questions all about nukes.

    FFS, Ukraine is fighting for survival and our news is worrying about nukes.

    Terrible from Sky.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Every morning starts the same: #people from all over the world asking if we are still standing. Yes, we do! We train, support each other, #resist, and absolutely not planning to retreat.
    #UkraineWillResist @MSNBC https://twitter.com/kiraincongress/status/1498173512216948743/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Latest Defence Intelligence update on Ukraine https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498191541675958273/photo/1
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another morning, another utter failure by the Russians to get near Kiev overnight.

    LOL at what sounds like it might be the Polish Air Force painting MiGs with Ukranian flags, and sending them off chasing bears and tanks.

    Bigger LOL at what’s about to happen as the markets in Moscow open. ATMs in Russia out of cash already, and banks unofficially selling dollars at double the official exchange rate. Let’s see how long those currency reserves last, in the face of an international assault on the ruble.

    For an invasion that was supposed to depend on speed, this isn't very speedy.
    I think the facts toward the end of this twitter thread https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204?s=20 explain hat.

    Basically the Ukraine’s military was a basket case in 2014 but it isn’t now. And Russia weren’t paying attention.

    Also when you have 1 or 2 target cities in a country with a population of 1-3 million it’s easy to use shock and awe.

    That’s not so easy with a country of 44 million and multiple cities - basically Russia bit off more than it can chew and once Ukraine fought back doesn’t have a plan.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    edited February 2022

    People who know Putin best are most worried about the nuclear threat according to the former US Ambassador to Moscow. Is it possible that if Putin has failed to get what he wants, he's prepared to take the world with him?

    At that point the best thing might be mass protests in Moscow. After all what would they have to lose.

    The protests in Moscow might happen before then anyway. "Comrades, to assist Great Patriotic War for Liberation of Ukraine, we have stolen all your savings..."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Russia reckons it has air superiority
  • Putin managed to recreate at least one aspect of the Soviet Union


    NBC News
    @NBCNews · 15h
    People stand in line to use an ATM machine in Saint Petersburg, Russia on Sunday.

    http://nbcnews.to/3ssx6gB


    https://twitter.com/PoliticoRyan/status/1498144401180487682
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Heathener said:

    Dura_Ace said:


    Interested in your assessment of how well/badly this is going for Russia @Dura_Ace

    I have no clue and anybody that tells you they do is bullshitting.

    The only notable fact is that the Russians, for some as yet unknown reason, did not play to their strengths and use massed long range fires as they did in Chechnya and Georgia. They went for US style high tempo maneuvering attacks without pulverising the area with artillery first. We'd have to know what the plan and the goals were before we could say whether its working or not.
    Yes indeed.

    If you contrast this with Operation Desert Storm it's very stark. Over a six-week period preceding the ground invasion the US and allies flew more than 116,000 combat air sorties and dropped 88,500 tons of bombs. When the main assault began it was preceded by 2.5 hours 90,000 round bombardment.

    We heard that Putin's generals were concerned all along that this was a dicey operation which was the main reason I doubted he would go ahead.

    Perhaps he assumed that they would waltz into Ukraine and be welcomed with open arms?
    Is there a small chance that it might be like the Dardanelles campaign? AIUI (and I daresay Dr Y would correct), an initial perhaps workable plan was watered down to a much smaller operation for a variety of reasons, good and bad. The watering down meant that it became almost doomed to failure.

    Might the Russians have had a much stronger plan, but were forced to downsize it for reasons of material, political convenience or cost?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Yokes said:

    Apparently the Ukrainians have launched a substantive flanking ambush on a large Russian column NW of Kiev.

    This is becoming a problem. Where is the helicopter and fast jet cover?

    That three mile column has to get up a narrow road. A few halted vehicles from combat or even breakdown makes for a mighty traffic jam. Not easy to bypass either in the marshes.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    The German government has published an English translation of Olaf Scholz's "Zeitenwende" (turning-point/new era) speech.

    Essential reading for anyone interested in the extraordinary turn that Putin's war has inspired in German foreign & security policy.
    https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/policy-statement-by-olaf-scholz-chancellor-of-the-federal-republic-of-germany-and-member-of-the-german-bundestag-27-february-2022-in-berlin-2008378
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Chancellor & Bank of England announce measures to cut off the Russian central bank - with US and EU, before markets open

    To prevent Central Bank deploying reserves "in ways that undermine the impact of sanctions", the Chancellor says


    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-statement-on-further-economic-sanctions-targeted-at-the-central-bank-of-the-russian-federation

    When I visited the Soviet Union in the early 80s there was an official rate of exchange and an unofficial or street rate of exchange which was roughly 3x more roubles to the pound or dollar. This was because the Soviet Union was not integrated into the world economy at that time. Russia seems to be heading back to that and it will be incredibly painful. The developments in sanctions over the weekend are like nothing we have ever seen to a fully integrated economy. No doubt they will find work arounds etc but their domestic economy is in serious danger of collapse.

    Which frankly makes me wonder if there is value in the no side of this bet.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Chancellor & Bank of England announce measures to cut off the Russian central bank - with US and EU, before markets open

    To prevent Central Bank deploying reserves "in ways that undermine the impact of sanctions", the Chancellor says


    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-statement-on-further-economic-sanctions-targeted-at-the-central-bank-of-the-russian-federation

    The last paragraph in there quietly extends som of the sanctions to Belarus as well
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,317
    edited February 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Today’s @thetimes cartoon, by Morton Morland, couldn’t have captured the callousness of @10DowningStreet more searingly. For shame. 🇺🇦 https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1498188056351891460/photo/1


    Good cartoon.

    But important not to lose sight that the government have shown enormous courage in leading public opinion over Ukraine. Support for military action of any kind is very lukewarm in this country. Their proactive stance has, it appears, fundamentally changed the world and arrested the decadant and cowardly stance of much of Europe. Boris Johnson has become an unlikely folk hero in Ukraine. The issue of refugees is one where concessions can be made to public opinion without losing ground on the 'bigger picture'. The action they need to take is on visas for people with family (or other close) connections.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    Defence Secretary Ben Wallace tells @SkyNews that unless properly trained, Brits are better off helping Ukraine by other means than travelling there to fight, watering down what Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said Sunday
    https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1498195752111255561
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Russian interest rates now 20%
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,912
    Foxy said:

    Heathener said:

    Meanwhile a Russian oil tanker is due to dock in the Orkneys.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-60541028

    We really need to pull our finger out. 'Nothing we can do' should be words that are banished.

    At the very least there needs to be a tediously long winded inspection by the harbour master of all paperwork etc. Could take weeks...
    A cynic might argue for letting it dock but not leave…
  • Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.

    One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.


    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498181493683802112
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Dura_Ace said:


    Interested in your assessment of how well/badly this is going for Russia @Dura_Ace

    I have no clue and anybody that tells you they do is bullshitting.

    The only notable fact is that the Russians, for some as yet unknown reason, did not play to their strengths and use massed long range fires as they did in Chechnya and Georgia. They went for US style high tempo maneuvering attacks without pulverising the area with artillery first. We'd have to know what the plan and the goals were before we could say whether its working or not.
    If this is working, then it was a pretty odd plan.
    Plans change in response to circumstances, of course.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    DavidL said:

    Heathener said:



    At that point the best thing might be mass protests in Moscow. After all what would they have to lose.

    Or one of his generals puts a bullet in his head. Whoever had the courage to do that would be the rest of the world's friend for life.
    What, all 1.5 minutes of it?
    That makes no sense. If someone takes out Putin there won't be a nuclear war.
This discussion has been closed.