This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
I think there are some real concerns about that.
Is the attempt to establish a military role for the EU best done on the fly in 48 hours or so?
Have they got the organisation competence to do it right first time without causing people to die, or will it in practice get outsourced to France or perhaps NATO?
And is UVDL up to overseeing it? She was the Defence Minister in Merkel's Government (the one that tied Germany's neck to Putin's shoe laces) from 2013 to 2019, and is a classic machine politician - messes it up often, but never takes responsibility. I'll go a long way with you criticising BJ, but he sometimes knows when to keep out and leave it to the professionals.
What do others think? My views will be coloured by my EU-skepticism.
EU have done very well on sanctions, assistance to refugees, and arguably closing airspace (though that was following UK and Belgium), but imo it is conditioned to try and control things, plus now Mons. Macron is one of those at the wheel.
There's already stuff like this tweet coming out (from the estimable Alex Krauss). That type of speculation is a questionable. NATO knows how to manage that.
Putin's in danger of turning Russia in to late Mugabe era Zimbabwe.
Inflation and interest rates in four figures would be nice.
Which is why a hard package of economic measures - which we resisted for so long - was always the way. Putin can't win the war, and he is trashing his economy. Question is how he reacts...
A final thought, which is not original to me. Even though they will, in all probability, lose the 'war'; perhaps the numerous stories of resistance amongst the Ukranians against Putin's invasion will become the folk tales that form the basis of a western cultural resurgence.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
Mr. Eagles, no idea on the Russian situation, but I do recall (and this may not even have been the high) interest rates of 65,000% in Zimbabwe. Think it was that, anyway, was a decade and a half or so ago.
And all that to fight a needless war. Which isn't going to plan, even.
I have a 100 Trillion Dollar note from Zimbabwe.....
I'd get sacked if I shared it, but on one of my work screens I can access a country's live economic report (stock market, currency, interest rates etc).
Russia is utterly red on every metric.
Utterly fucked, it brought a smile to my face.
I've never seen anything like it.
No hint of a Chinese bail out?
Is it not possible that they might do a deal with a successor of Putin' who will do the deed? Or ensure it is done.
Why would China rush to bail Russia out. Wait a while and China can negotiate even better terms for the Siberian raw materials China wants.
If the 5,000 figure is correct, Russia has lost 1 in 200 of its total army strength of a million in just 4 days. Imagine losing 1 in 20 in 40 days, and that doesn't include those taken prisoner or deserting.
Most of that theoretical million are non-deployable conscripts in various parts of their training. Complete with obsolete equipment etc etc.
It is quite probable that force that Russia has around/in Ukraine *is* the sum total of their deployable army. Which is why Putin has been asking his few allies for help.
It does, quite astonishingly, indeed look like the Russians have deployed a huge proportion of what they have - what they actually have available, rather than what might theoretically exist on some general’s asset spreadsheet - in Ukraine.
He wouldn’t need to be asking for help, if he had a fraction of the men and equipment available that he claims to possess.
Emperor Putin is naked, and the world around him is waking up to that realisation this morning.
But Xu and his colleagues’ open letter was quickly taken down by internet censors after two hours and 40 minutes online. And, perhaps unsurprisingly, pro-war Chinese trolls denounced the authors...
I think there’s a difference between the public and private face of the Chinese government at the moment.
Publicly they are trying to sit in the gap between the West and Russia because it doesn’t benefit the CCP to unduly enrage any one side - bad for business.
Privately I suspect they are all sitting around thinking “what the f***ing f**k is that lunatic in the Kremlin doing?!”
By waking Europe up from its complacent slumber on defence, Putin may have given the US the medium-term opportunity to focus more of its military capability on the Asia-Pacific, which is exactly what the Chinese would not want.
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
Why won't it please Brexity types.
The EU has stood tall, eventually. They took their time.
Britain and the clown have actually done well as has the US.
It is, now, a great example of co-operation and how we can still work together.
All bad things are an opportunity to find good outcomes that were not possible without the bad things. I see two sides of the lunatic fringe having their worldview swept aside:
1. The hard left. Stop the War look like absolute pillocks, Labour MPs being slapped down hard and effectively withdrawing. The world gathering together to confront the true Global Enemy and outrageously deciding it is Russia and not Israel. Their petulant bleating against the west looks more stupid than ever.
2. The hard right. Farage spectacularly shat the bed by backing Putin over NATO. The "lets fight petty jingoistic spats with Yerp" wing of the Tories look completely out of step with reality, and once the "no forrin" ban gets pulled we're about to see an outpouring of public support for Ukranian refugees.
Great post on both counts.
Where 3. is the US?
My biggest concern is Sleepy Joe and his isolationist tendencies. Don't get me wrong, thank g-d we don't have Trump at the helm, but where in all this are the US?
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
We have the opportunity for a major reset after six years of stupid bickering. The EU has changed utterly. In particular, this applies to Germany, which has put itself on course to become the world's largest non-nuclear military force and a major voice inside NATO. More than ever, it is in everyone's interests to find ways for the UK and the EU to work together productively. We now know we are all on the same side, that the UK's future is tied inextricably and unavoidably to Europe's and that we have plenty to offer each other. What is going to be interesting is how this plays out inside the Conservative party. Can the ERG accept this new reality?
Good morning
This is the first post I have read today and agree 100%
Indeed I have been saying the same for several days
Time for remainers and leavers to join those of us who sit in the centre and want good cooperation with our EU friends
I'd get sacked if I shared it, but on one of my work screens I can access a country's live economic report (stock market, currency, interest rates etc).
Russia is utterly red on every metric.
Utterly fucked, it brought a smile to my face.
I've never seen anything like it.
No hint of a Chinese bail out?
Is it not possible that they might do a deal with a successor of Putin' who will do the deed? Or ensure it is done.
Why would China rush to bail Russia out. Wait a while and China can negotiate even better terms for the Siberian raw materials China wants.
Can't be long before the queues at ATMs turn to panic.
If the 5,000 figure is correct, Russia has lost 1 in 200 of its total army strength of a million in just 4 days. Imagine losing 1 in 20 in 40 days, and that doesn't include those taken prisoner or deserting.
Most of that theoretical million are non-deployable conscripts in various parts of their training. Complete with obsolete equipment etc etc.
It is quite probable that force that Russia has around/in Ukraine *is* the sum total of their deployable army. Which is why Putin has been asking his few allies for help.
It does, quite astonishingly, indeed look like the Russians have deployed a huge proportion of what they have - what they actually have available, rather than what might theoretically exist on some general’s asset spreadsheet - in Ukraine.
He wouldn’t need to be asking for help, if he had a fraction of the men and equipment available that he claims to possess.
Emperor Putin is naked, and the world around him is waking up to that realisation this morning.
Does still have nukes though. Especially those in their subs. As Putin reminded us.
Although, you now wonder how many of the land-based numbers are shiny new and fit for purpose - and how many are rusting lumps of metal that won't get out their silos.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
Demanding reparations from a basket case economy is counterproductive. Ukraine will have to be rebuilt with western help. The rest is for now moot - but Ukraine's determination to be part of Europe is very clear. I don't think there is any way to pretend to Russia that won't happen, and very little reason to.
Putin's in danger of turning Russia in to late Mugabe era Zimbabwe.
Inflation and interest rates in four figures would be nice.
Which is why a hard package of economic measures - which we resisted for so long - was always the way. Putin can't win the war, and he is trashing his economy. Question is how he reacts...
I guess we may soon find out how many German banks were swimming without trunks in Russia?
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
It falls at the first hurdle, which is that Putin himself would need to agree it. Reparations also presents an unnecessary obstacle to Russian acceptance; some sort of modern Marshall Plan might be found.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
Demanding reparations from a basket case economy is counterproductive. Ukraine will have to be rebuilt with western help. The rest is for now moot - but Ukraine's determination to be part of Europe is very clear. I don't think there is any way to pretend to Russia that won't happen, and very little reason to.
Yes, the reparations bit was the only one that struck me as a bit dubious. It can also move much closer to Europe without necessarily being in NATO, ofcourse.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
But Xu and his colleagues’ open letter was quickly taken down by internet censors after two hours and 40 minutes online. And, perhaps unsurprisingly, pro-war Chinese trolls denounced the authors...
I think there’s a difference between the public and private face of the Chinese government at the moment.
Publicly they are trying to sit in the gap between the West and Russia because it doesn’t benefit the CCP to unduly enrage any one side - bad for business.
Privately I suspect they are all sitting around thinking “what the f***ing f**k is that lunatic in the Kremlin doing?!”
I think they're genuinely torn between the various self serving principles which totalitarian regimes hold dear.
Two railwaymen seized a #Russian armored personnel carrier.
One of the Russian invaders got out of the cab and asked for directions. The railwaymen pointed the way to a dead end. Once trapped, two of the occupants were detained. Two others managed to escape.
What sort of army has to ask for directions, or rely on road signs? (Assuming these reports are reliable, and there have been a lot of them).
Yes, you’d presume the Russians had access to Gogol Maps.
(More seriously, the Soviets drew up a massively detailed series of maps of Western Europe - see https://redatlasbook.com/ - and scholarly opinion is that this involved actual on-the-ground surveying, not just rewriting the Ordnance Survey in Cyrillic. But there’s no suggestion that Russia has continued the practice. My suspicion is that their maps of Ukraine are probably little better than what we have access to.)
I was surprised that Google maps was showing details of road closures and traffic in Ukraine until a day ago. It has now stopped that.
If the 5,000 figure is correct, Russia has lost 1 in 200 of its total army strength of a million in just 4 days. Imagine losing 1 in 20 in 40 days, and that doesn't include those taken prisoner or deserting.
Most of that theoretical million are non-deployable conscripts in various parts of their training. Complete with obsolete equipment etc etc.
It is quite probable that force that Russia has around/in Ukraine *is* the sum total of their deployable army. Which is why Putin has been asking his few allies for help.
It does, quite astonishingly, indeed look like the Russians have deployed a huge proportion of what they have - what they actually have available, rather than what might theoretically exist on some general’s asset spreadsheet - in Ukraine.
He wouldn’t need to be asking for help, if he had a fraction of the men and equipment available that he claims to possess.
Emperor Putin is naked, and the world around him is waking up to that realisation this morning.
All armies have a tiny deployable proportion of their theoretical manpower.
The UK has 153K active duty personnel in the military. How many could we actually send to the Estonian border? 10% ?
But Xu and his colleagues’ open letter was quickly taken down by internet censors after two hours and 40 minutes online. And, perhaps unsurprisingly, pro-war Chinese trolls denounced the authors...
I think there’s a difference between the public and private face of the Chinese government at the moment.
Publicly they are trying to sit in the gap between the West and Russia because it doesn’t benefit the CCP to unduly enrage any one side - bad for business.
Privately I suspect they are all sitting around thinking “what the f***ing f**k is that lunatic in the Kremlin doing?!”
I think they're genuinely torn between the various self serving principles which totalitarian regimes hold dear.
I do worry that the obvious way out of this for Russia is as a Chinese client state.
A new renewable energy source is being tested - drill 8 miles down and use the geothermal heat.
Not being facetious but there's this amazing source of energy which is the greenest and most naturally occurring in the entire universe: nuclear power. I consider myself pretty eco and green and very into wilding etc. It is bafflingly illogical that so many Green supporters are anti-nuclear power when it is literally the building block of nature.
If we can add fusion to fission that's the world's energy source solved.
The key thing is not to let them leak. And to keep the raw materials away from people like Putin.
A new renewable energy source is being tested - drill 8 miles down and use the geothermal heat.
I saw the Cornish experiment in the mid-80s - Camborne School of Mines Hot Dry Rock Geothermal Project in the Carnmenellis granite. I believe the Eden Project is involved in experiments that way. But this new thing sounds much deeper.
Priti's parents came from Uganda to Hertfordshire when they saw the writing on the wall, not when they had to, but even allowing to that the difference between what happened to her relations and what she is 'prepared to tolerate' is stark! And shameful.
I'd get sacked if I shared it, but on one of my work screens I can access a country's live economic report (stock market, currency, interest rates etc).
Russia is utterly red on every metric.
Utterly fucked, it brought a smile to my face.
I've never seen anything like it.
No hint of a Chinese bail out?
Is it not possible that they might do a deal with a successor of Putin' who will do the deed? Or ensure it is done.
Why would China rush to bail Russia out. Wait a while and China can negotiate even better terms for the Siberian raw materials China wants.
Can't be long before the queues at ATMs turn to panic.
If the 5,000 figure is correct, Russia has lost 1 in 200 of its total army strength of a million in just 4 days. Imagine losing 1 in 20 in 40 days, and that doesn't include those taken prisoner or deserting.
Most of that theoretical million are non-deployable conscripts in various parts of their training. Complete with obsolete equipment etc etc.
It is quite probable that force that Russia has around/in Ukraine *is* the sum total of their deployable army. Which is why Putin has been asking his few allies for help.
It does, quite astonishingly, indeed look like the Russians have deployed a huge proportion of what they have - what they actually have available, rather than what might theoretically exist on some general’s asset spreadsheet - in Ukraine.
He wouldn’t need to be asking for help, if he had a fraction of the men and equipment available that he claims to possess.
Emperor Putin is naked, and the world around him is waking up to that realisation this morning.
All armies have a tiny deployable proportion of their theoretical manpower.
The UK has 153K active duty personnel in the military. How many could we actually send to the Estonian border? 10% ?
The Royal Navy would not be much use although it could sail round the coast. The army is down to about 82,000 people after decades of Tory defence cuts and due to be cut to 72,000 in the latest Tory defence cuts. Roughly half the number you imagine.
The Ukrainians seem to have had considerable success in rounding up the saboteurs - as evidenced by so much of their communications system still working.
If I were a Russian mercenary in Ukraine, I'd take the Kremlin's money - and sit it out in a forest somewhere.
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
Why won't it please Brexity types.
The EU has stood tall, eventually. They took their time.
Britain and the clown have actually done well as has the US.
It is, now, a great example of co-operation and how we can still work together.
All bad things are an opportunity to find good outcomes that were not possible without the bad things. I see two sides of the lunatic fringe having their worldview swept aside:
1. The hard left. Stop the War look like absolute pillocks, Labour MPs being slapped down hard and effectively withdrawing. The world gathering together to confront the true Global Enemy and outrageously deciding it is Russia and not Israel. Their petulant bleating against the west looks more stupid than ever.
2. The hard right. Farage spectacularly shat the bed by backing Putin over NATO. The "lets fight petty jingoistic spats with Yerp" wing of the Tories look completely out of step with reality, and once the "no forrin" ban gets pulled we're about to see an outpouring of public support for Ukranian refugees.
Great post on both counts.
Where 3. is the US?
My biggest concern is Sleepy Joe and his isolationist tendencies. Don't get me wrong, thank g-d we don't have Trump at the helm, but where in all this are the US?
Precious few isolationists tendencies apparent in Biden's response to this. But for US intelligence publicising Putin's plans before the off, they might have succeeded.
If the 5,000 figure is correct, Russia has lost 1 in 200 of its total army strength of a million in just 4 days. Imagine losing 1 in 20 in 40 days, and that doesn't include those taken prisoner or deserting.
Most of that theoretical million are non-deployable conscripts in various parts of their training. Complete with obsolete equipment etc etc.
It is quite probable that force that Russia has around/in Ukraine *is* the sum total of their deployable army. Which is why Putin has been asking his few allies for help.
It does, quite astonishingly, indeed look like the Russians have deployed a huge proportion of what they have - what they actually have available, rather than what might theoretically exist on some general’s asset spreadsheet - in Ukraine.
He wouldn’t need to be asking for help, if he had a fraction of the men and equipment available that he claims to possess.
Emperor Putin is naked, and the world around him is waking up to that realisation this morning.
Does still have nukes though. Especially those in their subs. As Putin reminded us.
Although, you now wonder how many of the land-based numbers are shiny new and fit for purpose - and how many are rusting lumps of metal that won't get out their silos.
I have a feeling a lot of them aren't going to get out of their silos (and that may include the newer ones) since part of the issue @Malmesbury is quoting from said one part of the change was a reduction of quality control on part acceptance...
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
We have the opportunity for a major reset after six years of stupid bickering. The EU has changed utterly. In particular, this applies to Germany, which has put itself on course to become the world's largest non-nuclear military force and a major voice inside NATO. More than ever, it is in everyone's interests to find ways for the UK and the EU to work together productively. We now know we are all on the same side, that the UK's future is tied inextricably and unavoidably to Europe's and that we have plenty to offer each other. What is going to be interesting is how this plays out inside the Conservative party. Can the ERG accept this new reality?
They have a lot of new reality to accept. They're still keeping the door firmly shut to Ukranians seeking shelter - must keep the forrin out to appease the little Englander core vote.
That's not true, though. Certainly not in those stark terms.
Do some people really think that the difference between Putin deciding to destroy the world or not is really going to come down to the technicalities of NATO membership?
Had Ukraine not tried to join NATO Putin would likely not have invaded it in the first place.
NATO should not have tried to absorb the old nations of the USSR
You're on the wrong side.
It's also stupid. Putin has said time and again he wants to re-establish a greater Russian empire. He's said Ukraine isn't a real country. Sovereignty is whatever he decides it is when he feels like it. Did Zelensky going on about Nato membership push him over the edge? Possibly. But the fundamental problem was always there. He demands submission. Ukrainians will never submit to his rule.
Exactly right. The only stable outcomes of this situation involve Putin not being in power. For all HYUFD goes on about realpolitik, he's basically defending the position of a man whose approach to international relations is to spread propaganda about gays and Jews corrupting the West and how Russia is the last bastion of Christian purity. I mean, if that's not a moral crusade, and a lunatic one too, then what is? Realpolitik and Putin are polar opposites.
HYUFD is really all over the place here. He has no idea, absolutely no fucking clue at all, what he's talking about and it's kind of embarrassing to see it. I normally take pleasure in shooting his stupider arguments out of the barrel, but honestly, this Putinist turn is just a bit sad and tawdry.
Rubbish.
It is not being pro Putin to want to avoid the UK being drawn into a nuclear war.
Which based on Putin's statements there would be at least a 50% chance of if we went to war with Russia over Ukraine, a non NATO nation.
I support economic sanctions against Putin, I do not support war unless he goes beyond Ukraine and invades NATO nations
You are making pro-Putin arguments, 100% you are. You portray arguments for containment as provocative and instead argue for "realpolitik". But when somebody puts to you that this will both encourage nuclear proliferation AND the fact that Putin is on a moral crusade, you go silent about realpolitik. You can't have it both ways. Realpolitik is about doing what's practical. You just want to pay the Danegeld and hope it makes the Dane go away. And you're offering a whole country.
Either you know that Putin won't stop at Ukraine, in which case all you're doing is emboldening the Kremlin... or you don't realise that his Eurasian strategy has talked about EXACTLY THIS kind of unilateral annexation of former Russian Empire states.
Whether you're attempting to sell out Ukraine for a few weeks of feeling less anxious, or you're ignorant of what Putin stands for despite the long pattern of his actions, I don't know. I suspect your are ignorant and that is also the most charitable reading. But either way, you're badly, badly wrong.
Incidentally, I think it's time to remind everyone what you said a few short days ago. In order to defend some rubbish or other you'd come out with, you ended up claiming that Russia is a democracy. That there is your level of ignorance or delusion on the subject. You are massively and tragically out of your depth here.
Had Ukraine not tried to join NATO Putin would likely not have invaded it in the first place.
NATO should not have tried to absorb the old nations of the USSR
That's buying into Putin's argument that NATO expansion 25 years ago was a sufficient provocation as to require war. Boris, rightly, says there was no excuse. You've argued otherwise above.
I know you love to toss and turn, and argue interpretations and definitions, but you said the above and it was one of the most shocking things I've ever seen you write. You always mean precisely what you say, you've always been clear about that as a matter of integrity, even if it was an unpopular view.
The same applies here - you believe a pro-Putin pretext, no ifs ands or buts. You may not support him in all things, but you do support him in that view.
That saddens me more than anything else. It's not a desire to pile on or anything of the kind. But you went pro-Putin.
That is not a pro Putin argument. It is political reality.
NATO was originally created as a defensive organisation to defend Western Europe.
It then expanded to take in East Germany, Poland and Hungary and the Czech Republic after the Cold War ended.
It is the expansion of NATO even beyond that to try and absorb the old states of the USSR which has left Russia feeling encircled and threatened and gone way beyond its original aims. That is not a pro Putin statement, it is reality, whether you like it or not that NATO has turned from a defensive organisation to in many Russians eyes, not just Putin's, an aggressive and expansionist organisation
Why does Russia “feeling encircled and threatened” justify it invading another sovereign country?
While I hesitate to pile on HYFUD, when so many others have pointed out the tripe he is spouting, I am so angry I feel I must join in.
NATO was not some regional power block. It was explcitly established to preserve the principles of the Atlantic Charter, when it became clear that the Soviet Union was just as murderous and brutal as the Germany that had so recently been defeated. In defiance of NKVD murder squads and the deep oppression of all under the Soviet yoke, NATO was and is an alliance of democratic states enacting the rule of law and committed to justice and freedom.
After the fall of Soviet tyranny, those newly free countries lined up to commit to the principles of the Washington treaty, and for a while we thought that Russia would be one of them. A NATO from Vancouver to Vladivostok seemed in sight.
However, it be came clear, shortly after Putin came to power on the back of the bloody destruction of Grozny that Russia was reverting to a much darker road. Many, including me, warned early on what the true nature of Putin was, and I remember debating with Bill Browder why Hermitage was wrong to beleive that Russia could emerge as a free and open economy and society under him.
Now we face nuclear war because Russia is in the hands of a senile tyrant who can kill in an afternoon more than Hitler did in his whole worthless life. Too many people in the UK even when presented with incontrovertible evidence of what Russia had become, were happy to take Putin´s shilling, and Farage, Salmond and many in the Conservative Party are guilty of stupidity at best, and treason at worst. However we will deal with that after this is over.
The next few days are critical, but the horrors we have so far witnessed may be simply an amuse bouche for what is to come. From Estonia to Essex to Estoril we must unite to face a savage and brutal enemy. Let us hope that Ekaterinburg joins that list and the tyrant is defeated and removed very soon.
A well argued and justifiable put down to the nonsense posted by @HYUFD
If a Polish fighter pilot takes his Mig 29 to visit relatives in Lviv, what tax liability does he or the Polish Airforce incur, for using a work vehicle for personal travel?
Gromit’s pal also having to clarify what Truss ‘really’ meant with her Brits can go to Ukraine to fight guff. Perhaps the government should have an official Minister for Parsing Truss.
If the 5,000 figure is correct, Russia has lost 1 in 200 of its total army strength of a million in just 4 days. Imagine losing 1 in 20 in 40 days, and that doesn't include those taken prisoner or deserting.
Most of that theoretical million are non-deployable conscripts in various parts of their training. Complete with obsolete equipment etc etc.
It is quite probable that force that Russia has around/in Ukraine *is* the sum total of their deployable army. Which is why Putin has been asking his few allies for help.
It does, quite astonishingly, indeed look like the Russians have deployed a huge proportion of what they have - what they actually have available, rather than what might theoretically exist on some general’s asset spreadsheet - in Ukraine.
He wouldn’t need to be asking for help, if he had a fraction of the men and equipment available that he claims to possess.
Emperor Putin is naked, and the world around him is waking up to that realisation this morning.
All armies have a tiny deployable proportion of their theoretical manpower.
The UK has 153K active duty personnel in the military. How many could we actually send to the Estonian border? 10% ?
Oh indeed. Military aircraft, for one example, are notoriously unserviceable compared to their civilian counterparts. I wonder how many tanks that appeared close the Ukranian border were actually working, and how many got dragged off the transport trains to give the impression of serviceability to anyone not looking too closely?
Oh, and what’s that American refuelling tanker doing, going around in circles east of Warsaw this morning? (LAGR130) Edit: and another one, NCHO222, loitering in eastern Romania.
Putin still has gold under his control, so brace for a crash in bullion prices as he dumps 400-ounce Soviet bars on the Dubai market, all the way down to final Tsarist bars with the imperial eagle.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
What further room is there for economic sanctions? If Putin did escalate to thermobaric weapons I hope Scholz has made it clear he is prepared to turn off the gas. With the shift in the German mood and us moving into spring I wonder if that is doable?
Geopolitical expert @vtchakarova says Poland's 30 MiG-29s are the most modernized ones compared to Slovakia's and Bulgaria's, making it likely that Warsaw will deliver its planes to Ukraine first.
Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria will instead receive newer F-16s from the U.S.
The Ukrainians seem to have had considerable success in rounding up the saboteurs - as evidenced by so much of their communications system still working.
If I were a Russian mercenary in Ukraine, I'd take the Kremlin's money - and sit it out in a forest somewhere.
if it was in Roubles... that might not be a good idea.
If a Polish fighter pilot takes his Mig 29 to visit relatives in Lviv, what tax liability does he or the Polish Airforce incur, for using a work vehicle for personal travel?
What further room is there for economic sanctions? If Putin did escalate to thermobaric weapons I hope Scholz has made it clear he is prepared to turn off the gas. With the shift in the German mood and us moving into spring I wonder if that is doable?
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
We have the opportunity for a major reset after six years of stupid bickering. The EU has changed utterly. In particular, this applies to Germany, which has put itself on course to become the world's largest non-nuclear military force and a major voice inside NATO. More than ever, it is in everyone's interests to find ways for the UK and the EU to work together productively. We now know we are all on the same side, that the UK's future is tied inextricably and unavoidably to Europe's and that we have plenty to offer each other. What is going to be interesting is how this plays out inside the Conservative party. Can the ERG accept this new reality?
They have a lot of new reality to accept. They're still keeping the door firmly shut to Ukranians seeking shelter - must keep the forrin out to appease the little Englander core vote.
I've also seen something about 3 years sans visa for anyone, and I expect that UK Gov will have aligned with EU within another day on this one.
As Dominic Cummings lamented after the Marcus Rashford affair, Boris does tend to plant himself on the wrong side of history before being forced to the humanitarian view.
Once, by, as the song says, a set of curious chances, I arrived in India with some Cambodian currency. Not a lot, fortunately. None of the banks I went to would change it and eventually I sold it to a fellow Brit in a bar. And promptly used some of the rupees he gave me to buy us both a drink!
I'm really pleased to see Germany's decision on defence spending. It's over 80 years since the outbreak of WWII and it's good to see them move out from its shadow (which was enforced on them, of course).
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
We have the opportunity for a major reset after six years of stupid bickering. The EU has changed utterly. In particular, this applies to Germany, which has put itself on course to become the world's largest non-nuclear military force and a major voice inside NATO. More than ever, it is in everyone's interests to find ways for the UK and the EU to work together productively. We now know we are all on the same side, that the UK's future is tied inextricably and unavoidably to Europe's and that we have plenty to offer each other. What is going to be interesting is how this plays out inside the Conservative party. Can the ERG accept this new reality?
They have a lot of new reality to accept. They're still keeping the door firmly shut to Ukranians seeking shelter - must keep the forrin out to appease the little Englander core vote.
That's not true, though. Certainly not in those stark terms.
I've also seen something about 3 years sans visa for anyone, and I expect that UK Gov will have aligned with EU within another day on this one.
Haven't seen that, and rather doubt it. The offer is for UK nationals (I should hope so too) and their families. Unlike Kabul, neither we nor the US have AFAIK offered anything to the people who worked for us (I know that in practice we couldn't get them al lout from Kabul, but the offer was there).
Ireland has made a visa-free offer, bless them, but they're unique in that, i think.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
Commendable sentiments from someone who was accusing countries and individuals of appeasement only a week ago. Well done.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
When the dust settles on this, which hopefully won't be in the form of nuclear fallout, the UK will be even more isolated than before. The EU has stood tall and risen to the challenge. They are forging ahead with a brilliant unity and are likely to enlarge, working in tandem with NATO.
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
Once, by, as the song says a set of curious chances, I arrived in India with some Cambodian currency. Not a lot, fortunately. None of the banks I went to would change it and eventually I sold it to a fellow Brit in a bar. And promptly used some of the rupees he gave me to buy us both a drink!
Back when I was at university, the film society wanted to film an ad. For whatever reason this included a briefcase-full-of-cash scene. Someone at the local bank branch mentioned that there was a huge stack of South American currency (one of the hyper inflations there), for some reason - so for about £50 we filled the briefcase.
Some time later I was sent to the bank to get the film societies money back. It was half way through that I noticed that customers in the bank were staring at the sight of me emptying a briefcase of cash through the foreign exchange window.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
When the dust settles on this, which hopefully won't be in the form of nuclear fallout, the UK will be even more isolated than before. The EU has stood tall and risen to the challenge. They are forging ahead with a brilliant unity and are likely to enlarge, working in tandem with NATO.
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
It's also making a British single market return *far* more likely.
The main political worry was Eastern European immigration..
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
We have the opportunity for a major reset after six years of stupid bickering. The EU has changed utterly. In particular, this applies to Germany, which has put itself on course to become the world's largest non-nuclear military force and a major voice inside NATO. More than ever, it is in everyone's interests to find ways for the UK and the EU to work together productively. We now know we are all on the same side, that the UK's future is tied inextricably and unavoidably to Europe's and that we have plenty to offer each other. What is going to be interesting is how this plays out inside the Conservative party. Can the ERG accept this new reality?
They have a lot of new reality to accept. They're still keeping the door firmly shut to Ukranians seeking shelter - must keep the forrin out to appease the little Englander core vote.
That's not true, though. Certainly not in those stark terms.
I've also seen something about 3 years sans visa for anyone, and I expect that UK Gov will have aligned with EU within another day on this one.
Were I the UK Government I would also offer some fairly substantial support from our Aid Budget to the countries dealing with the immediate - perhaps especially Poland as they are having the largest influx and we have just signed a Memorandum of Cooperation with Poland and Ukraine, and establish a scheme for NHS and other staff to go and help for 6 or 12 months. On top of the I think £140m we have already said will be contributed to various humanitarian things.
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
We have the opportunity for a major reset after six years of stupid bickering. The EU has changed utterly. In particular, this applies to Germany, which has put itself on course to become the world's largest non-nuclear military force and a major voice inside NATO. More than ever, it is in everyone's interests to find ways for the UK and the EU to work together productively. We now know we are all on the same side, that the UK's future is tied inextricably and unavoidably to Europe's and that we have plenty to offer each other. What is going to be interesting is how this plays out inside the Conservative party. Can the ERG accept this new reality?
They have a lot of new reality to accept. They're still keeping the door firmly shut to Ukranians seeking shelter - must keep the forrin out to appease the little Englander core vote.
That's not true, though. Certainly not in those stark terms.
I've also seen something about 3 years sans visa for anyone, and I expect that UK Gov will have aligned with EU within another day on this one.
Haven't seen that, and rather doubt it. The offer is for UK nationals (I should hope so too) and their families. Unlike Kabul, neither we nor the US have AFAIK offered anything to the people who worked for us (I know that in practice we couldn't get them al lout from Kabul, but the offer was there).
Ireland has made a visa-free offer, bless them, but they're unique in that, i think.
Ukraine's delegation, including the defense minister, has arrived at the Belarus border for talks with Russia. "The main issue of negotiations is an immediate ceasefire & withdrawal of troops from Ukraine" @verkhovna_rada https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1498215375779110914
I'm really pleased to see Germany's decision on defence spending. It's over 80 years since the outbreak of WWII and it's good to see them move out from its shadow (which was enforced on them, of course).
During the Cold War, West German defence spending was pretty high - had a huge tank army, for example.
If the 5,000 figure is correct, Russia has lost 1 in 200 of its total army strength of a million in just 4 days. Imagine losing 1 in 20 in 40 days, and that doesn't include those taken prisoner or deserting.
Most of that theoretical million are non-deployable conscripts in various parts of their training. Complete with obsolete equipment etc etc.
It is quite probable that force that Russia has around/in Ukraine *is* the sum total of their deployable army. Which is why Putin has been asking his few allies for help.
It does, quite astonishingly, indeed look like the Russians have deployed a huge proportion of what they have - what they actually have available, rather than what might theoretically exist on some general’s asset spreadsheet - in Ukraine.
He wouldn’t need to be asking for help, if he had a fraction of the men and equipment available that he claims to possess.
Emperor Putin is naked, and the world around him is waking up to that realisation this morning.
All armies have a tiny deployable proportion of their theoretical manpower.
The UK has 153K active duty personnel in the military. How many could we actually send to the Estonian border? 10% ?
Oh indeed. Military aircraft, for one example, are notoriously unserviceable compared to their civilian counterparts. I wonder how many tanks that appeared close the Ukranian border were actually working, and how many got dragged off the transport trains to give the impression of serviceability to anyone not looking too closely?
Oh, and what’s that American refuelling tanker doing, going around in circles east of Warsaw this morning? (LAGR130) Edit: and another one, NCHO222, loitering in eastern Romania.
A fair few, after all the transport by train was a one off offer so you fill the train up and hope the tank can be repaired between when it arrives on the border and is actually needed.
Probably behind the curve but hadn’t seen this clip of Zelenskyy (posted by the Feigl no less!) which was apparently the start of his journey into fictional then real politics. Strong stuff, though perhaps not as brave as making jokes about gypsies.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
Yes. In a word. The problem is that it’s got to look like a “you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours” situation. So perhaps some kind of deal on Donetsk and Luhansk - still part of Ukraine but fully autonomous with international overseers, a sort of NI plus, perhaps.
That was pretty much the Minsk deal, first kicked down the road by Ukraine (who only agreed to it under pressure) and then trashed by the Russian invasion. The much-derided Russian spy chief who briefly stood up to Putin on TV (and then buckled) was basically proposing that the Russians say "implement the damn deal or we'll take military action". The Russians would be in a far better place diplomatically if Putin had listened to him, and maybe he'd settle for it now.
I suspect he'd resign soon after, but it's unlikely to be part of the deal.
This won't please Brexity types but the EU has stood tall.
In some ways it has played into Macron's hands. He wanted an EU army. A new order is being created in western Europe.
And we're outside it.
We have the opportunity for a major reset after six years of stupid bickering. The EU has changed utterly. In particular, this applies to Germany, which has put itself on course to become the world's largest non-nuclear military force and a major voice inside NATO. More than ever, it is in everyone's interests to find ways for the UK and the EU to work together productively. We now know we are all on the same side, that the UK's future is tied inextricably and unavoidably to Europe's and that we have plenty to offer each other. What is going to be interesting is how this plays out inside the Conservative party. Can the ERG accept this new reality?
They have a lot of new reality to accept. They're still keeping the door firmly shut to Ukranians seeking shelter - must keep the forrin out to appease the little Englander core vote.
I've also seen something about 3 years sans visa for anyone, and I expect that UK Gov will have aligned with EU within another day on this one.
As Dominic Cummings lamented after the Marcus Rashford affair, Boris does tend to plant himself on the wrong side of history before being forced to the humanitarian view.
I tend to agree that he does it in his inept management of an Administration, and has an awful habit of spaffing away political capital on bad decisions (eg NHS payrise 1% then 3%) before doing a reverse ferret so losing twice. IMO that may cost him the next election.
But I think that reaching that verdict after about 2 days is a bit of a stretch in this case .
If the 5,000 figure is correct, Russia has lost 1 in 200 of its total army strength of a million in just 4 days. Imagine losing 1 in 20 in 40 days, and that doesn't include those taken prisoner or deserting.
Most of that theoretical million are non-deployable conscripts in various parts of their training. Complete with obsolete equipment etc etc.
It is quite probable that force that Russia has around/in Ukraine *is* the sum total of their deployable army. Which is why Putin has been asking his few allies for help.
It does, quite astonishingly, indeed look like the Russians have deployed a huge proportion of what they have - what they actually have available, rather than what might theoretically exist on some general’s asset spreadsheet - in Ukraine.
He wouldn’t need to be asking for help, if he had a fraction of the men and equipment available that he claims to possess.
Emperor Putin is naked, and the world around him is waking up to that realisation this morning.
All armies have a tiny deployable proportion of their theoretical manpower.
The UK has 153K active duty personnel in the military. How many could we actually send to the Estonian border? 10% ?
Oh indeed. Military aircraft, for one example, are notoriously unserviceable compared to their civilian counterparts. I wonder how many tanks that appeared close the Ukranian border were actually working, and how many got dragged off the transport trains to give the impression of serviceability to anyone not looking too closely?
Oh, and what’s that American refuelling tanker doing, going around in circles east of Warsaw this morning? (LAGR130) Edit: and another one, NCHO222, loitering in eastern Romania.
Providing tanker support for NATO patrols, I would have thought. Because the Americans have a huge fleet of tankers, they often provide such support.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
When the dust settles on this, which hopefully won't be in the form of nuclear fallout, the UK will be even more isolated than before. The EU has stood tall and risen to the challenge. They are forging ahead with a brilliant unity and are likely to enlarge, working in tandem with NATO.
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
The UK has imposed a flight ban on Russian planes just like the EU. The UK has imposed economic sanctions on Russia just like the EU.
Not all EU nations are in NATO either unlike the UK, Austria, Ireland, Sweden and Finland for example are not in NATO
How much is $20bn a day for Russia? According to Wikipedia, Russia's GDP is about $1,600bn. So at this rate Russia burns through its entire GDP in under 100 days. Of course, its GDP will be negatively impacted by the war, so possibly rather sooner. I mean, I hope the war doesn't go on for 100 days - but it's an indication of the kind of pressure Russia is under to finish this. Remember also there will be other things it will be spending its money on besides war...
Probably behind the curve but hadn’t seen this clip of Zelenskyy (posted by the Feigl no less!) which was apparently the start of his journey into politics. Strong stuff, though perhaps not as brave as making jokes about gypsies.
#BREAKING Meanwhile fighting in most major cities right now, a tractor driver steals Russian military equipment in Ukraine. Things are so unorganized on the Russian side. #Ukraine #UkraineWar #UkraineInvasion #UkraineUnderAttack
Probably behind the curve but hadn’t seen this clip of Zelenskyy (posted by the Feigl no less!) which was apparently the start of his journey into politics. Strong stuff, though perhaps not as brave as making jokes about gypsies.
I'm starting to think of how we offer Russia a way out of the mess they've inflicted on themselves.
What would I/we ideally want? Well, Putin removed from power, and preferable facing some form of international tribunal. Russian forces removed from all of Ukraine pre-2014, including Crimea and Donbass. Large reparations to help rebuild Ukraine. A full DMZ for thirty miles east of Ukraine with no Russian military presence. Russian acceptance that Ukraine will be offered membership of NATO, if they want it.
We won't get that.
What might we settle for? Putin removed from power, but kept in Russia. Preferably in jail. Russia removes itself from Ukraine and the Donbass, but keeps Crimea. Future reparations to Ukraine when Russia have rebuilt their economy. No DMZ. Ukraine not in NATO. Immediate removal of all sanctions on Russia (but not named individuals directly implicated in the war) once the above is agreed/implemented.
Would sane Russian generals and the oligarchy accept that?
The right kind of idea overall, I think. Several of the oligarchs would definitely accept that right now, too.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
Yep great discussion and this is the kind of pragmatism I've spoken about previously. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and do business with the lesser of evils.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
I have read your posts and can I gentle suggest it is time to recognise that both the UK and the EU have been excellent and that we need to avoid division as we seek a new relationship with the EU
When the dust settles on this, which hopefully won't be in the form of nuclear fallout, the UK will be even more isolated than before. The EU has stood tall and risen to the challenge. They are forging ahead with a brilliant unity and are likely to enlarge, working in tandem with NATO.
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
The UK has imposed a flight ban on Russian planes just like the EU. The UK has imposed economic sanctions on Russia just like the EU.
Not all EU nations are in NATO either unlike the UK, Austria, Ireland, Sweden and Finland for example are not in NATO
And - that doesn't answer any one of Heathener's points. One of the key things we offered the EU was military strength and that isn't much use if Germany has decided to stand up and actual provide that might themselves...
If the 5,000 figure is correct, Russia has lost 1 in 200 of its total army strength of a million in just 4 days. Imagine losing 1 in 20 in 40 days, and that doesn't include those taken prisoner or deserting.
Most of that theoretical million are non-deployable conscripts in various parts of their training. Complete with obsolete equipment etc etc.
It is quite probable that force that Russia has around/in Ukraine *is* the sum total of their deployable army. Which is why Putin has been asking his few allies for help.
It does, quite astonishingly, indeed look like the Russians have deployed a huge proportion of what they have - what they actually have available, rather than what might theoretically exist on some general’s asset spreadsheet - in Ukraine.
He wouldn’t need to be asking for help, if he had a fraction of the men and equipment available that he claims to possess.
Emperor Putin is naked, and the world around him is waking up to that realisation this morning.
All armies have a tiny deployable proportion of their theoretical manpower.
The UK has 153K active duty personnel in the military. How many could we actually send to the Estonian border? 10% ?
Probably brigade strength so 6-7,000. But given everything that's been cancelled, cut or delayed that brigade would probably be CR2, CVR(T), FV430s, some random assortments of Bulldog/Jackal. The artillery would be a smattering of 155mm, some MLRS, and maybe a light gun battery.
This looks more like a re-enactment society than 21st century expeditionary warfare.
The UK is scheduled to commit a high readiness Armoured/Mechanized brigade to NATO in 2024 but that is currently looking unachievable as Warrior is going, Ajax is 2025+ or maybe never, Boxer is 2024+ and Challenger 3 is 2028+.
Thank the gods of war that the EU aren't running our military. What a desperate situation we'd be in then.
Probably behind the curve but hadn’t seen this clip of Zelenskyy (posted by the Feigl no less!) which was apparently the start of his journey into politics. Strong stuff, though perhaps not as brave as making jokes about gypsies.
I'm really pleased to see Germany's decision on defence spending. It's over 80 years since the outbreak of WWII and it's good to see them move out from its shadow (which was enforced on them, of course).
During the Cold War, West German defence spending was pretty high - had a huge tank army, for example.
Yes that's true, after 1955. But as you know, they were also heavily restricted and under NATO's authority. The Bundeswehr weren't allowed to take part in combat operations, for example. And they were refrained from becoming a nuclear weapons power.
I'm merely noting that this is a historic change, throwing off the shackles of what tied them to something which happened an awfully long time ago now.
Raising interest rates by 10.5 percentage point seems to have bought slightly more than 50 minutes of strength before the ruble when back to where it was
I'm really pleased to see Germany's decision on defence spending. It's over 80 years since the outbreak of WWII and it's good to see them move out from its shadow (which was enforced on them, of course).
During the Cold War, West German defence spending was pretty high - had a huge tank army, for example.
Yep after 1955. But as you know, they were heavily restricted and under NATO's authority. The Bundeswehr weren't allowed to take part in combat operations, for example. And they were refrained from becoming a nuclear weapons power.
I'm merely noting that this is a historic change, throwing off the shackles of what tied them to something which happened an awfully long time ago now.
The nuclear weapons thing was more domestic - at one point they and Italy were looking quite seriously at it. See the Italian Alfa rocket project etc.
I'm really pleased to see Germany's decision on defence spending. It's over 80 years since the outbreak of WWII and it's good to see them move out from its shadow (which was enforced on them, of course).
During the Cold War, West German defence spending was pretty high - had a huge tank army, for example.
Its still got the best main battle tank in Europe (or the world?)...
Do some people really think that the difference between Putin deciding to destroy the world or not is really going to come down to the technicalities of NATO membership?
Had Ukraine not tried to join NATO Putin would likely not have invaded it in the first place.
NATO should not have tried to absorb the old nations of the USSR
You're on the wrong side.
It's also stupid. Putin has said time and again he wants to re-establish a greater Russian empire. He's said Ukraine isn't a real country. Sovereignty is whatever he decides it is when he feels like it. Did Zelensky going on about Nato membership push him over the edge? Possibly. But the fundamental problem was always there. He demands submission. Ukrainians will never submit to his rule.
Exactly right. The only stable outcomes of this situation involve Putin not being in power. For all HYUFD goes on about realpolitik, he's basically defending the position of a man whose approach to international relations is to spread propaganda about gays and Jews corrupting the West and how Russia is the last bastion of Christian purity. I mean, if that's not a moral crusade, and a lunatic one too, then what is? Realpolitik and Putin are polar opposites.
HYUFD is really all over the place here. He has no idea, absolutely no fucking clue at all, what he's talking about and it's kind of embarrassing to see it. I normally take pleasure in shooting his stupider arguments out of the barrel, but honestly, this Putinist turn is just a bit sad and tawdry.
Rubbish.
It is not being pro Putin to want to avoid the UK being drawn into a nuclear war.
Which based on Putin's statements there would be at least a 50% chance of if we went to war with Russia over Ukraine, a non NATO nation.
I support economic sanctions against Putin, I do not support war unless he goes beyond Ukraine and invades NATO nations
You are making pro-Putin arguments, 100% you are. You portray arguments for containment as provocative and instead argue for "realpolitik". But when somebody puts to you that this will both encourage nuclear proliferation AND the fact that Putin is on a moral crusade, you go silent about realpolitik. You can't have it both ways. Realpolitik is about doing what's practical. You just want to pay the Danegeld and hope it makes the Dane go away. And you're offering a whole country.
Either you know that Putin won't stop at Ukraine, in which case all you're doing is emboldening the Kremlin... or you don't realise that his Eurasian strategy has talked about EXACTLY THIS kind of unilateral annexation of former Russian Empire states.
Whether you're attempting to sell out Ukraine for a few weeks of feeling less anxious, or you're ignorant of what Putin stands for despite the long pattern of his actions, I don't know. I suspect your are ignorant and that is also the most charitable reading. But either way, you're badly, badly wrong.
Incidentally, I think it's time to remind everyone what you said a few short days ago. In order to defend some rubbish or other you'd come out with, you ended up claiming that Russia is a democracy. That there is your level of ignorance or delusion on the subject. You are massively and tragically out of your depth here.
Had Ukraine not tried to join NATO Putin would likely not have invaded it in the first place.
NATO should not have tried to absorb the old nations of the USSR
That's buying into Putin's argument that NATO expansion 25 years ago was a sufficient provocation as to require war. Boris, rightly, says there was no excuse. You've argued otherwise above.
I know you love to toss and turn, and argue interpretations and definitions, but you said the above and it was one of the most shocking things I've ever seen you write. You always mean precisely what you say, you've always been clear about that as a matter of integrity, even if it was an unpopular view.
The same applies here - you believe a pro-Putin pretext, no ifs ands or buts. You may not support him in all things, but you do support him in that view.
That saddens me more than anything else. It's not a desire to pile on or anything of the kind. But you went pro-Putin.
That is not a pro Putin argument. It is political reality.
NATO was originally created as a defensive organisation to defend Western Europe.
It then expanded to take in East Germany, Poland and Hungary and the Czech Republic after the Cold War ended.
It is the expansion of NATO even beyond that to try and absorb the old states of the USSR which has left Russia feeling encircled and threatened and gone way beyond its original aims. That is not a pro Putin statement, it is reality, whether you like it or not that NATO has turned from a defensive organisation to in many Russians eyes, not just Putin's, an aggressive and expansionist organisation
Why does Russia “feeling encircled and threatened” justify it invading another sovereign country?
This. And it's one thing to say it made Russia feel threatened. Its another to say therefore it should not have happened. The former might be argued as simple acknowledgement of their position. The latter endorses it in its use as a pretext.
How will Putin react to the news that EU states are going to supply Ukraine with fighter jets?
Supplies they may be able to get away with, actually sending EU fighter jets to Ukraine to engage the Russian airforce and bomb Russian troops would be risky given Putin has put the Russian nuclear missile arsenal on alert
How much is $20bn a day for Russia? According to Wikipedia, Russia's GDP is about $1,600bn. So at this rate Russia burns through its entire GDP in under 100 days. Of course, its GDP will be negatively impacted by the war, so possibly rather sooner. I mean, I hope the war doesn't go on for 100 days - but it's an indication of the kind of pressure Russia is under to finish this. Remember also there will be other things it will be spending its money on besides war...
Where did you get $20bn per day from? $20bn per day is $133k per day for every of the 150k personnel in the Russian invasion force.
Much of the 'cost' will be on equipment and ammunition, lost and used. The cost would have been incurred in the past - sure there will be a replenishment cost but that could be at some indeterminate time in the future.
How will Putin react to the news that EU states are going to supply Ukraine with fighter jets?
Supplies they may be able to get away with, actually sending EU fighter jets to Ukraine to engage the Russian airforce and bomb Russian troops would be risky given Putim has put the Russian nuclear missile arsenal on alert
How will Putin react to the news that EU states are going to supply Ukraine with fighter jets?
Supplies they may be able to get away with, actually sending EU fighter jets to Ukraine to engage the Russian airforce and bomb Russian troops would be risky given Putin has put the Russian nuclear missile arsenal on alert
Really though isn't the Russian nuclear missile arsenal always on alert?
How much is $20bn a day for Russia? According to Wikipedia, Russia's GDP is about $1,600bn. So at this rate Russia burns through its entire GDP in under 100 days. Of course, its GDP will be negatively impacted by the war, so possibly rather sooner. I mean, I hope the war doesn't go on for 100 days - but it's an indication of the kind of pressure Russia is under to finish this. Remember also there will be other things it will be spending its money on besides war...
$20 billion a day seems unlikely. 20 billion roubles, maybe, and even then you'd wonder about marginal versus fixed costs. Russia would be paying soldiers' wages even if they had remained in their barracks, for instance.
Comments
Is the attempt to establish a military role for the EU best done on the fly in 48 hours or so?
Have they got the organisation competence to do it right first time without causing people to die, or will it in practice get outsourced to France or perhaps NATO?
And is UVDL up to overseeing it? She was the Defence Minister in Merkel's Government (the one that tied Germany's neck to Putin's shoe laces) from 2013 to 2019, and is a classic machine politician - messes it up often, but never takes responsibility. I'll go a long way with you criticising BJ, but he sometimes knows when to keep out and leave it to the professionals.
What do others think? My views will be coloured by my EU-skepticism.
EU have done very well on sanctions, assistance to refugees, and arguably closing airspace (though that was following UK and Belgium), but imo it is conditioned to try and control things, plus now Mons. Macron is one of those at the wheel.
There's already stuff like this tweet coming out (from the estimable Alex Krauss). That type of speculation is a questionable. NATO knows how to manage that.
https://interestingengineering.com/energy-company-plans-geothermal-energy?presentid=webnews
A new renewable energy source is being tested - drill 8 miles down and use the geothermal heat.
There'll be furious intrigue and plans going on.
He wouldn’t need to be asking for help, if he had a fraction of the men and equipment available that he claims to possess.
Emperor Putin is naked, and the world around him is waking up to that realisation this morning.
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1498210637440327682?s=21
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1498211023672823812
Where 3. is the US?
My biggest concern is Sleepy Joe and his isolationist tendencies. Don't get me wrong, thank g-d we don't have Trump at the helm, but where in all this are the US?
This is the first post I have read today and agree 100%
Indeed I have been saying the same for several days
Time for remainers and leavers to join those of us who sit in the centre and want good cooperation with our EU friends
Although, you now wonder how many of the land-based numbers are shiny new and fit for purpose - and how many are rusting lumps of metal that won't get out their silos.
The rest is for now moot - but Ukraine's determination to be part of Europe is very clear. I don't think there is any way to pretend to Russia that won't happen, and very little reason to.
Right now, Putin is an evil lunatic who is warring in Ukraine and threatening the world. This on top of countless other atrocities.
Compared to him some of the other oligarchs, heck even President Xi, are dance partners by comparison.
The UK has 153K active duty personnel in the military. How many could we actually send to the Estonian border? 10% ?
If we can add fusion to fission that's the world's energy source solved.
The key thing is not to let them leak. And to keep the raw materials away from people like Putin.
And shameful.
400300200136?The Ukrainians seem to have had considerable success in rounding up the saboteurs - as evidenced by so much of their communications system still working.
If I were a Russian mercenary in Ukraine, I'd take the Kremlin's money - and sit it out in a forest somewhere.
But for US intelligence publicising Putin's plans before the off, they might have succeeded.
As I suggested 48 hours ago would happen, family members of UK settled Ukrainians have already been offered sanctuary:
https://news.sky.com/story/ukrainian-refugees-will-be-able-to-join-immediate-family-members-in-uk-says-johnson-12553796
I've also seen something about 3 years sans visa for anyone, and I expect that UK Gov will have aligned with EU within another day on this one.
We all stand with you
If a Polish fighter pilot takes his Mig 29 to visit relatives in Lviv, what tax liability does he or the Polish Airforce incur, for using a work vehicle for personal travel?
Asking for a friend.
Oh, and what’s that American refuelling tanker doing, going around in circles east of Warsaw this morning? (LAGR130)
Edit: and another one, NCHO222, loitering in eastern Romania.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/27/west-has-finally-taken-gloves-against-putin-redeemed-honour/
Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria will instead receive newer F-16s from the U.S.
🇵🇱🇺🇦
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1498214605776203779
And promptly used some of the rupees he gave me to buy us both a drink!
https://interestingengineering.com/video/two-guys-jetpacks-fly-massive-airliner-dubai
For more on this and other news visit http://news.sky.com
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukraine-refugees-uk-family-russia-b2024712.html
Ireland has made a visa-free offer, bless them, but they're unique in that, i think.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/england-join-boycott-but-fifa-refuses-to-expel-russia-from-international-football-gnd902lv5
The UK is looking out on the fringe more than ever.
It's tragic.
I'm happy to park this part of the discussion for now but if we get through this, it will be true.
Some time later I was sent to the bank to get the film societies money back. It was half way through that I noticed that customers in the bank were staring at the sight of me emptying a briefcase of cash through the foreign exchange window.
The main political worry was Eastern European immigration..
p.s. Mind you, there's a lot of dirty money at the top of football
https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1498215375779110914
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1497773516099399680?s=21
I suspect he'd resign soon after, but it's unlikely to be part of the deal.
But I think that reaching that verdict after about 2 days is a bit of a stretch in this case
And I don't buy the obsessive xenophobia line.
Not all EU nations are in NATO either unlike the UK, Austria, Ireland, Sweden and Finland for example are not in NATO
Of course, its GDP will be negatively impacted by the war, so possibly rather sooner.
I mean, I hope the war doesn't go on for 100 days - but it's an indication of the kind of pressure Russia is under to finish this.
Remember also there will be other things it will be spending its money on besides war...
#BREAKING Meanwhile fighting in most major cities right now, a tractor driver steals Russian military equipment in Ukraine. Things are so unorganized on the Russian side. #Ukraine #UkraineWar #UkraineInvasion #UkraineUnderAttack
https://twitter.com/OSICnick/status/1498022940759240717?s=20
Martha Carney: “But we left the EU, we can make our own decisions!”
Nice one. #r4today
https://twitter.com/MarqRiley5/status/1498213257085132804
This looks more like a re-enactment society than 21st century expeditionary warfare.
The UK is scheduled to commit a high readiness Armoured/Mechanized brigade to NATO in 2024 but that is currently looking unachievable as Warrior is going, Ajax is 2025+ or maybe never, Boxer is 2024+ and Challenger 3 is 2028+.
Thank the gods of war that the EU aren't running our military. What a desperate situation we'd be in then.
I'm merely noting that this is a historic change, throwing off the shackles of what tied them to something which happened an awfully long time ago now.
Taken together with other government statements this morning it feels as if the offer to Ukrainians is about to evolve.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1498220647289438208
This will be their fourth go at this. Odds on them fucking it up again?
https://twitter.com/diddydi68/status/1497971446114566155?s=21
Much of the 'cost' will be on equipment and ammunition, lost and used. The cost would have been incurred in the past - sure there will be a replenishment cost but that could be at some indeterminate time in the future.
Worth watching for the insanity of it....
I love Qatar Airways but wow the country itself has some dodgy dealings.