Evidently some events were serious enough to have referred them to the met.
Come on - time to go- this is an absolute shambles
It's as unedifying a spectacle as I can remember in British politics.
The Remainer parliament was awful really but not the same sort of personal shambles. John Major's 'back to the wall' fight was pretty awful.
But this is something else.
Looks to me highly suspiciously like Dick has just ridden to a short term at least rescue of Johnson.
If that is true then it stinks. Absolutely stinks.
The Met can't win. Don't investigate, they get criticised. Investigate, they get criticised.
They deserve nothing better. Officers would have been on duty at these garden parties and very likely aware of indoor parties as well. They chose to do nothing at the time. Now we have a situation where the normal practice is not to do anything after the event but they are feeling pressured to make an exception. Classic Dick mismangement really.
The 154,000 figure is probably just as inaccurate as the 17,000 figure. The correct figure will be somewhere in the middle. 154,000 will include people who mainly died of other things, and the 17,000 figure is people who only died of Covid. I wouldn't trust either of those.
The thread helpfully includes a chart showing what proportion of those 154,000 deaths had covid as the underlying cause (by month)
"The proportion of deaths involving COVID-19, where COVID-19 was the underlying cause decreased between November and December 2021 in both England (from 84.9% to 83.8%) and Wales (from 83.9% to 79.6%).
These proportions generally correspond with periods of high or low numbers of deaths. In England, the proportion of deaths involving COVID-19 that were also due to COVID-19 was highest in April 2020 (95.2%) and lowest in May 2021 (68.8%). In Wales, this proportion was highest in April 2020 (94.1%) and lowest in June 2021 (42.9%).
The doctor certifying a death can list all causes in the chain of events that led to the death, and pre-existing conditions that may have contributed to the death. Deaths with COVID-19 mentioned anywhere on the death certificate are defined as deaths involving COVID-19. Deaths where COVID-19 is also the underlying cause of death are defined as deaths due to COVID-19."
Presumably the total "deaths due to covid" isn't hard to find (though I can't see it).
"Vodafone to switch off UK 3G network by end of 2023 Change will force hundreds of thousands of older people and those in rural areas to upgrade mobiles
Vodafone, which has about 18 million UK mobile customers, is to turn off the almost two-decade-old network as usage dwindles to focus on using the freed up spectrum to expand its 4G and 5G networks. However, the company, which is to phase out 3G along the same timeline as EE-owner BT, admits that there are hundreds of thousands of customers who have stuck with their 3G-only phones, particularly older owners who have not been enticed to join the smartphone revolution."
Would help if the 4g and 5g networks were more reliable.
I have a 4G phone but most of the time my phone says on the top "H+" which I believe is a variation of 3G? I'm assuming it connects to that only if it can't find 4G since that's a lesser service?
If 3G is shut down would that be H+ and other related services shut down too?
And if 4G isn't available and 3G is shut down then what then?
On balance I actually think this will result in a VONC this week.
I don't think they will be able to use it to kick the can. You really don't want your PM being investigated as a criminal ...
No evidence yet Boris will be found guilty of any criminality, even if some No 10 staff are and have to leave
From what has been reported about this incident, he’s guilty of being handed a cake at the office by his missus.
The one incident that can fairly be discribed as an actual party, was when the PM was at Chequers - which raises questions as to who was in charge at the time, and why the police who were on duty didn’t get involved?
Because the police on duty are protection officers with a particular job to do. It's not in their remit to deal with other issues.
Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes According to Guido sources Downing Street has been advised that Cressida Dick intends to tell the London Assembly's Police and Crime Committee this morning that the Metropolitan Police will now investigate #partygate.
If Gray is delayed for that reason I will march on Downing Street.
You wouldn't be alone. I can see a scenario where gray reports and then the met investigate. But if the report goes on hold, all hell breaks out.
Certainly is interesting timing from Dame Cressida. She'll say that it's because allegations have stepped up a notch, naturally, but it could be incredibly handy for the govt.
This is genius from the Dame Cressida Saves Big Dog campaign.
By the time the Met investigation is concluded, perhaps eighteen months to two years time, everyone will have moved on. Mr Johnson will be technically exonerated because the CPS will determine they cannot proceed on the basis of what defines a party or a work event.
That is the big question of the day. Because it is. You look at it, especially in warm sun, and something inside is calmed and stilled. is it the changing changelessness? The eternity-ness? Does it remind of us of the amniotic wash of the womb? The maternal heartbeat of the crumpling waves? Never ending and reassuring?
Or is it the ozone? Or the promise of other places? Escape? Or the idea of sushi?
*turns to look at sea*
*is soothed*
There's sea and there's sea. I guess it's soothing knowing one's not in this.
Yep it's nonsense to say the sea is always soothing. Trying telling that to a trawlerman. Or anyone who knows the southern ocean.
Written by a typical landlubber metropolitan (Camden town) elitist who should have better things to do than sit on here whilst on a Sri Lankan holiday.
I’m not on holiday you humourless pigs nipple. I’m working from a temporary home. In the sun. By the sea. Which is why I’m not sightseeing
Two weeks ago I looked at the daunting number of assignments and commissions I had coming in. A lot of work. Now, I like my work. Sometimes I love it. But it is still work
Then I thought: wait, I don’t have to do this in Camden in freezing January and February. I can do it somewhere lovely and cheap and sunny and, yes, by the sea
I examined the possibilities (Covid permitting) and thought: yay, three or four weeks in Sri Lanka? What an excellent decision it was
BREAKING: Met Police will now investigate a number of lockdown events at Downing Street and Whitehall. The events were referred by Sue Gray, Cressida Dick says.
Remember the police were in and out of Downing St. over Cash For Peerages in Tony's last years....
This is what Boris Johnson wrote to 7 year old Josephine who cancelled her birthday party:
"Josephine sets a great example to us all by postponing her birthday party until we have sent coronavirus packing.
Together we can beat this. In the meantime let's all wish her happy birthday (twice) whilst washing our hands. #BeLikeJosephine #StayHomeSaveLives"
This is the kind of thing which really cuts through.
And Ruth Davidson rubbing the knife in:
"By coincidence, my partner shares a birthday with the Prime Minister (19th June). We marked it in 2020 by inviting one other household to sit outside, socially distanced, in our garden. It didn't occur to us - literally couldn't conceive - that we would act outside the rules."
I know the Scottish tories really have it in for him at the moment but it's really interesting to see people like Grant Shapps distancing himself from the PM this morning.
Do they know Johnson's time is up?
That was my take, having just listened to it. He's weary with the excuses, surely knows the game is up, and is approaching the point where he can't be bothered to try and defend it all.
That might be significant because Shapps is supposed to be the numbers man on Operation Save Big Dog so perhaps his spreadsheets are telling him Boris is a lost cause.
The new RedfieldWilton poll still has Boris preferred to Sunak as PM amongst 2019 Tory voters 48% to 36%. Yes, 2019 Labour, LD and SNP voters prefer Sunak to Boris as PM but how many of them would switch to the Tories if Sunak became PM?
I suspect Tory MPs are about in the same range as 2019 Tory voters on Boris and for now Boris narrowly wins a VONC
To win a vonc, Boris first has to face one, and then it is not a question of winning but of winning by a large enough margin, as Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May found out.
If the current rules were in place in 1990 then Thatcher's 54% of MPs would have kept her in place. There would have been no second round and Thatcher, not Major, would likely have led the Conservatives at the 1992 general election.
May survived for six months after the December 2018 VONC she won until the May 2019 local and European elections which were admittedly disastrous for the Tories. If Boris wins a VONC now he therefore at least survives until the local elections in May
You miss the point. Winning is not enough. The Prime Minister – any prime minister – needs to win decisively, not by a slim margin that lets them limp on for a few more months.
Back to the Scottish Tories - they obviously don't think Mr Johnson could win a pancake race with a tortoise.
'THE Scottish Conservatives have again dodged questions about the latest “partygate” revelations after refusing to send a representative on the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland radio show.
Hosts were told “no-one was available” to speak to them after it was revealed Boris Johnson attended a birthday bash on Downing Street in June 2020. SNP Westminster leader told the show the Prime Minister had "stuck two fingers up at the rest of us".
Douglas Ross’s party has been accused of blanking the BBC on several other occasions this month following fresh bombshell claims about partying at Number 10.
On January 12, The Scottish Tories declined to be on a panel of MSPs on BBC Scotland's Politics Scotland programme.
On January 16, the Tories went “dark” when asked to provide a representative for the Sunday Show, prompting claims they were "in hiding".'
Not like the good old days when the leader would appear for any photo op, is it?
Really shouldn't need any debunking to anyone with a passing acquaintance with reality, but didn't someone quote it on here the other day (along with the classic Covid merely "hastened" people's deaths) as evidence that they weren't a "loon"?
What I found most interesting was the widespread prevalence of “comorbidities” as age increases - the data presented was for Scotland but I doubt rUK is significantly different.
That is the big question of the day. Because it is. You look at it, especially in warm sun, and something inside is calmed and stilled. is it the changing changelessness? The eternity-ness? Does it remind of us of the amniotic wash of the womb? The maternal heartbeat of the crumpling waves? Never ending and reassuring?
Or is it the ozone? Or the promise of other places? Escape? Or the idea of sushi?
*turns to look at sea*
*is soothed*
For most of human history, being near water was essential for survival. So it is very likely just genetic survival instincts imo.
I am sure the sense of freedom and escape is crucial in the way the sea subconsciously lifts us. It’s hard to feel stuck if you are right next to the sea. And even tho the water is salt, if you are by the sea you just have to walk down the shore and eventually - unless you are in terrible desert country - you will find a freshwater river greeting the sea
This is all encoded in our language. The fundamentality of the sea. The English word for “soul” comes from the Old English/Germanic “saiwalo” - meaning: “of the sea”
From the sea our souls have come, and to the sea our souls return
I have only had two beers. Wait til my third
Thalassa is the best word for the sea, I think, the Greek word James Joyce was obsessed with.
“Thalassa! Thalassa! (Greek: Θάλαττα! θάλαττα! — "The Sea! The Sea!") was the shouting of joy when the roaming Ten Thousand Greeks saw Euxeinos Pontos (the Black Sea) from Mount Theches (Θήχης) in Trebizond, after participating in Cyrus the Younger's failed march against the Persian Empire in the year 401 BC. The mountain was only a five-day march away from the friendly coastal city Trapezus. The story is told by Xenophon in his Anabasis.”
Spooky... ...The Sea, the Sea is a tale of the strange obsessions that haunt a self-satisfied playwright and director as he begins to write his memoirs. Murdoch's novel exposes the motivations that drive her characters – the vanity, jealousy, and lack of compassion behind the disguises they present to the world....
Robert Peston @Peston BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
The police investigation shows that the waiting for Godot, sorry Gray, was always a diversion and invitation to suspend judgment for no particular reason. MPs now have to decide. Poor dears.
That is the big question of the day. Because it is. You look at it, especially in warm sun, and something inside is calmed and stilled. is it the changing changelessness? The eternity-ness? Does it remind of us of the amniotic wash of the womb? The maternal heartbeat of the crumpling waves? Never ending and reassuring?
Or is it the ozone? Or the promise of other places? Escape? Or the idea of sushi?
*turns to look at sea*
*is soothed*
Though I suspect if you were watching the sea in Southend or Blackpool in January rather than the warm Indian Ocean in the sun it may not be quite as soothing
Indeed so. Yet it is STILL a pleasant and tranquilising sight, even in those less kindly places
I have friends with a flat in Granton (not a particularly affluent part of Edinburgh, to say the least). But you can sit on the balcony and watch the ships sail up the firth, the seabirds floating about in great rafts. Glorious.
Surely we are now at the point that further evidence of further parties hits the law of diminishing returns. Rather than building up a tsunami of outrage it generates ennui.
We know that Boris and his team at No 10 did not think that the rules applied to them. We know that the PM was both involved and aware of what was going on and at least tolerated it because he thought it did more harm than good. We know that he repeatedly lied both to the country and to Parliament about his knowledge and his involvement.
And yet he is still there. The 53 letters have not arrived. Calls to resign have been ignored and spurned. Wait for Gray, we are told but what can she possibly tell us that we do not already know?
Last night we saw a modest bounceback in the polls for the government. Still pretty awful but a reduced deficit. It was only 1 poll and we need more but has Boris got through this? It's starting to look that way to me.
The problem for Conservative MPs is that Boris doesn't think he did anything wrong and so isn't going to make changes either to his own activities or to how Downing Street operates.
Which means that there is going to be a constant stream of scandals and political fuckups as long as Boris is there.
If you're a Conservative MP do you want that as the backdrop for the next two years ?
Why on earth not. Boris hasn't changed for the past 30 years and the Cons MPs (even most of us on PB) knew this. Boris is Boris. Saying they must get rid of him now would be as absurd as buying a dog and being upset when it barks.
Boris has always had his problems but I don't remember him allowing anything as needlessly, self-indulgently stupid as the Downing Street parties.
Or for that matter allowing the Paterson fiasco.
Boris has always been pretty cunning in advancing his own interests and getting others to do the hard work while he gets the benefits.
If he'd done that in Downing Street he wouldn't be in the current mess.
All his problems are post April 2020 and being blunt he doesn't seem to be the same person post Covid as he was before.
Some element of conniving and knowing what the next steps are seems to have been lost.
Very possible - its said that Ronnie Reagan was never quite the same man after his near fatal experience.
And with Boris we have someone who had regularly lived close to the edge career wise - a 5% or 10% loss in his abilities would be all it takes for the fuckups to become damaging.
Robert Peston @Peston BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
FFS this is in no ones interest.
It's very much in Boris's interest especially if the end result is the Met prosecuting anyone other than Boris.
Bonus points are, of course, available if the person the Met Police prosecute is a Mr D Cummings.
Cressida Dick: I think the public would understand that we need to focus on violent crimes and terrorism (and not parties) That sure as hell didn’t stop you aggressively threatening us and aggressively policing The Sarah Everard vigil. https://twitter.com/jamieklingler/status/1485917955800117250
Really shouldn't need any debunking to anyone with a passing acquaintance with reality, but didn't someone quote it on here the other day (along with the classic Covid merely "hastened" people's deaths) as evidence that they weren't a "loon"?
All the covid deaths were hastened deaths.
Varying from a few hours to a few decades.
Perhaps the relevant number would be the amount of 'quality life' covid caused by death or sickness compared to the amount it has caused from restrictions and damage to future opportunities.
Well, of course, all the covid deaths were hastened deaths.
But why bother with "covid" in that sentence?
All deaths are "hastened deaths".
I'm somewhat lockdown sceptical - in that I don't know whether the benefits outweighed the costs overall. But the "argument" that the people who died of covid were going to die sooner or later anyway is just silly.
The difference being that deaths from other causes have not been regarded as a public health emergency requiring unprecedented levels of restrictions and expenditure.
Resulting in significant and permanent damage to the future prospects of many.
By all means make some kind of cost/benefit argument about imposing those restrictions and spending that money.
But there was an argument that covid deaths specifically don't count because those people were going to die sooner or later anyway. It's a stupid argument, and it's an ugly argument.
On balance I actually think this will result in a VONC this week.
I don't think they will be able to use it to kick the can. You really don't want your PM being investigated as a criminal ...
No evidence yet Boris will be found guilty of any criminality, even if some No 10 staff are and have to leave
From what has been reported about this incident, he’s guilty of being handed a cake at the office by his missus.
The one incident that can fairly be discribed as an actual party, was when the PM was at Chequers - which raises questions as to who was in charge at the time, and why the police who were on duty didn’t get involved?
Because the police on duty are protection officers with a particular job to do. It's not in their remit to deal with other issues.
They could have "had a word" with their superiors who could have done/said something, but I agree that it certainly wasn't their place to do anything themselves.
This is what Boris Johnson wrote to 7 year old Josephine who cancelled her birthday party:
"Josephine sets a great example to us all by postponing her birthday party until we have sent coronavirus packing.
Together we can beat this. In the meantime let's all wish her happy birthday (twice) whilst washing our hands. #BeLikeJosephine #StayHomeSaveLives"
This is the kind of thing which really cuts through.
And Ruth Davidson rubbing the knife in:
"By coincidence, my partner shares a birthday with the Prime Minister (19th June). We marked it in 2020 by inviting one other household to sit outside, socially distanced, in our garden. It didn't occur to us - literally couldn't conceive - that we would act outside the rules."
I know the Scottish tories really have it in for him at the moment but it's really interesting to see people like Grant Shapps distancing himself from the PM this morning.
Do they know Johnson's time is up?
That was my take, having just listened to it. He's weary with the excuses, surely knows the game is up, and is approaching the point where he can't be bothered to try and defend it all.
That might be significant because Shapps is supposed to be the numbers man on Operation Save Big Dog so perhaps his spreadsheets are telling him Boris is a lost cause.
The new RedfieldWilton poll still has Boris preferred to Sunak as PM amongst 2019 Tory voters 48% to 36%. Yes, 2019 Labour, LD and SNP voters prefer Sunak to Boris as PM but how many of them would switch to the Tories if Sunak became PM?
I suspect Tory MPs are about in the same range as 2019 Tory voters on Boris and for now Boris narrowly wins a VONC
To win a vonc, Boris first has to face one, and then it is not a question of winning but of winning by a large enough margin, as Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May found out.
If the current rules were in place in 1990 then Thatcher's 54% of MPs would have kept her in place. There would have been no second round and Thatcher, not Major, would likely have led the Conservatives at the 1992 general election.
May survived for six months after the December 2018 VONC she won until the May 2019 local and European elections which were admittedly disastrous for the Tories. If Boris wins a VONC now he therefore at least survives until the local elections in May
You miss the point. Winning is not enough. The Prime Minister – any prime minister – needs to win decisively, not by a slim margin that lets them limp on for a few more months.
Back to the Scottish Tories - they obviously don't think Mr Johnson could win a pancake race with a tortoise.
'THE Scottish Conservatives have again dodged questions about the latest “partygate” revelations after refusing to send a representative on the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland radio show.
Hosts were told “no-one was available” to speak to them after it was revealed Boris Johnson attended a birthday bash on Downing Street in June 2020. SNP Westminster leader told the show the Prime Minister had "stuck two fingers up at the rest of us".
Douglas Ross’s party has been accused of blanking the BBC on several other occasions this month following fresh bombshell claims about partying at Number 10.
On January 12, The Scottish Tories declined to be on a panel of MSPs on BBC Scotland's Politics Scotland programme.
On January 16, the Tories went “dark” when asked to provide a representative for the Sunday Show, prompting claims they were "in hiding".'
Not like the good old days when the leader would appear for any photo op, is it?
Stephen Kerr seems to be the one most willing to do the media stuff over the last couple of weeks (which mostly consists of the 'world leading vaccine response' mantra). I wonder if he has ambitions?
The week the story broke sticks vividly in my mind.
My recollection is that up to that point the public was highly supportive of the restrictive measures imposed. After BC, there was a changed attitude and many thought 'what the hell'. Mrs PtP was in London at the time, keeping her head down and her body in line with the regs, and then some. She's like that. It was hot the following weekend and when she took the dog for a walk she found that suddenly her local park was full of people partying and enjoying the weather as if the regulations didn't exist. The park was so crowded that she didn't feel comfortable and she headed home. A few days later she came down with Covid. It was bad. She was lucky to survive. Recovery took months. Obviously we don't know that there was a causal connection but we both felt the Government had let the public down by setting the worst type of example.
My view these days is that lockdowns are useless unless strictly followed and rigorously imposed. Otherwise it is probably better not to bother at all and the government would do better just to point out the dangers and ask everyone to try their best and follow their own judgement. This seems to me to be about where we have got to now.
Back then it was different. The lockdown was observed and imposed, for a good while. It follows obviously that if the Government is to impose severe restrictions on the population, it simply has to adhere to the highest standards itself.
Everybody has their own story to tell. This is mine. You can understand without me labouring the point just what I think of the revelations of what was going on at No. 10, and why I feel the way I do.
Robert Peston @Peston BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
FFS this is in no ones interest.
There's an argument that this is very much in Starmer's interest. The story keeps rumbling on while the Government is holed beneath the waterline, every week or two Dom feeds another scrap to the ravenous newspapers, and the Conservatives retain their lame duck leader.
Robert Peston @Peston BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
FFS this is in no ones interest.
C'mon, guys. Step back and take a long look at this. It must be the end for BJ. The MPs have to take control, send in the letters, and, if necessary, VONC Boris.
The police investigation cannot be used to allow this to string along and be considered a "reprieve". It's actually an escalation delivered by Sue Gray. The country needs to move on. No-one is indispensable and certainly not Boris now.
The rules were in place to protect us all. But they were set aside in Downing Street in order to keep morale high at the centre of government. They took a risk for us but gratitude has no place in politics so we condemn the hypocrisy. It's an old story.
Meanwhile top judoka Putin looks to exploit loss of balance in his opponents. Sees cake hysteria in Britain and abject protection of business interests in Germany, and wonders whether now is the moment before the great thaw in the border lands.
What utter bollocks, if not satire.
Doctors, nurses, ambulance drivers, and other medical professionals on the front line during the pandemic, more so than the staff in Downing Street weren't allowed to have morale boosting parties.
Medical workers, doctors and nurses , did do morale boosting Tik Tok dances at work and good on them.
There were medical workers, doctors and nurses, who were so dedicated and so concerned about spreading Covid they slept in hospital accomodation for months without seeing their family members for weeks on end, thus missing birthday parties.
There were medical workers, doctors and nurses who were so dedicated they caught Covid on the job and died, thus missing a life time of parties.
There were medical workers, doctors and nurses who were so dedicated they brought Boris Johnson from the brink, so he could party.
So yes, why shouldn't NHS staff cheer themselves up with Tik Tok dances, Teams and Zoom parties? Boris Johnson didn't need Tik Tok dances or Zoom because he was indulging in the real thing, and often by the look of it.
The Tik Tok dances were absurd by the end. Embarrassing. Stop the fucking dancing, it can’t be that bad if you can work out a full 3 minute routine for 20 dancing parademics. Grow up
However, this does not exonerate the government. Boris has to go, morally. Enough. The question is whether he *has* to go, politically
While Eadric (formerly of this parish) was aimlessly wondering alone around Cosmeston Lakes during the first lockdown pondering why he couldn't rock up to James Sommerin or El Puerto for a civilised dining experience, Bozza was on the lash with his mates. James Sommerin in Penarth subsequently folded so he is presumably pondering the same question too.
Eadric should be outraged if the Conservative Party overlook this rule breaking, be it in spirit or in law.
Robert Peston @Peston BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
FFS this is in no ones interest.
There's an argument that this is very much in Starmer's interest. The story keeps rumbling on while the Government is holed beneath the waterline, every week or two Dom feeds another scrap to the ravenous newspapers, and the Conservatives retain their lame duck leader.
If the government have any bearing on the police investigation, which is certainly not impossible, it could shift to Cummings or others. If I was him I would unload whatever else I had straight into the public domain pretty soon.
On balance I actually think this will result in a VONC this week.
I don't think they will be able to use it to kick the can. You really don't want your PM being investigated as a criminal ...
No evidence yet Boris will be found guilty of any criminality, even if some No 10 staff are and have to leave
From what has been reported about this incident, he’s guilty of being handed a cake at the office by his missus.
The one incident that can fairly be discribed as an actual party, was when the PM was at Chequers - which raises questions as to who was in charge at the time, and why the police who were on duty didn’t get involved?
Because the police on duty are protection officers with a particular job to do. It's not in their remit to deal with other issues.
And they did not have the time or wit to pick up the phone to colleagues who could have investigated? Pull the other one.
* I'm using 2016 to 2020. The ONS are using 2016 to 2019 and 2021, which seems silly to me. I guess they don't want to switch at the end of March, which is what I will do, and think it's best to have the five-year average inflated by COVID now but then not so much after March.
Presumably our epidemioligists will be applying exponential growth to the last 3 entries and conclude that death will be completely abolished some time later this year?
This is what Boris Johnson wrote to 7 year old Josephine who cancelled her birthday party:
"Josephine sets a great example to us all by postponing her birthday party until we have sent coronavirus packing.
Together we can beat this. In the meantime let's all wish her happy birthday (twice) whilst washing our hands. #BeLikeJosephine #StayHomeSaveLives"
This is the kind of thing which really cuts through.
And Ruth Davidson rubbing the knife in:
"By coincidence, my partner shares a birthday with the Prime Minister (19th June). We marked it in 2020 by inviting one other household to sit outside, socially distanced, in our garden. It didn't occur to us - literally couldn't conceive - that we would act outside the rules."
I know the Scottish tories really have it in for him at the moment but it's really interesting to see people like Grant Shapps distancing himself from the PM this morning.
Do they know Johnson's time is up?
That was my take, having just listened to it. He's weary with the excuses, surely knows the game is up, and is approaching the point where he can't be bothered to try and defend it all.
That might be significant because Shapps is supposed to be the numbers man on Operation Save Big Dog so perhaps his spreadsheets are telling him Boris is a lost cause.
The new RedfieldWilton poll still has Boris preferred to Sunak as PM amongst 2019 Tory voters 48% to 36%. Yes, 2019 Labour, LD and SNP voters prefer Sunak to Boris as PM but how many of them would switch to the Tories if Sunak became PM?
I suspect Tory MPs are about in the same range as 2019 Tory voters on Boris and for now Boris narrowly wins a VONC
To win a vonc, Boris first has to face one, and then it is not a question of winning but of winning by a large enough margin, as Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May found out.
If the current rules were in place in 1990 then Thatcher's 54% of MPs would have kept her in place. There would have been no second round and Thatcher, not Major, would likely have led the Conservatives at the 1992 general election.
May survived for six months after the December 2018 VONC she won until the May 2019 local and European elections which were admittedly disastrous for the Tories. If Boris wins a VONC now he therefore at least survives until the local elections in May
You miss the point. Winning is not enough. The Prime Minister – any prime minister – needs to win decisively, not by a slim margin that lets them limp on for a few more months.
Back to the Scottish Tories - they obviously don't think Mr Johnson could win a pancake race with a tortoise.
'THE Scottish Conservatives have again dodged questions about the latest “partygate” revelations after refusing to send a representative on the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland radio show.
Hosts were told “no-one was available” to speak to them after it was revealed Boris Johnson attended a birthday bash on Downing Street in June 2020. SNP Westminster leader told the show the Prime Minister had "stuck two fingers up at the rest of us".
Douglas Ross’s party has been accused of blanking the BBC on several other occasions this month following fresh bombshell claims about partying at Number 10.
On January 12, The Scottish Tories declined to be on a panel of MSPs on BBC Scotland's Politics Scotland programme.
On January 16, the Tories went “dark” when asked to provide a representative for the Sunday Show, prompting claims they were "in hiding".'
Not like the good old days when the leader would appear for any photo op, is it?
Stephen Kerr seems to be the one most willing to do the media stuff over the last couple of weeks (which mostly consists of the 'world leading vaccine response' mantra). I wonder if he has ambitions?
Doubt it. Douglas Ross is in a very strong position so far as the Scottish Party is concerned. He's obviously called this right in being the first MP to call on Boris to go. When he does go, his position will be further enhanced. Scots like politicians who have a mind of their own and take a strong line on principle. The dourness probably helps as well.
Robert Peston @Peston BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
FFS this is in no ones interest.
There's an argument that this is very much in Starmer's interest. The story keeps rumbling on while the Government is holed beneath the waterline, every week or two Dom feeds another scrap to the ravenous newspapers, and the Conservatives retain their lame duck leader.
The Tories have to act immediately. The rot has set in.
I'm sure some principled type will come out with some wank like "we can't set a precedent where we knife a PM over just allegations, wait for the Met to do their job".
The 154,000 figure is probably just as inaccurate as the 17,000 figure. The correct figure will be somewhere in the middle. 154,000 will include people who mainly died of other things, and the 17,000 figure is people who only died of Covid. I wouldn't trust either of those.
The 154,000 figure will also miss those who died of covid but took longer than 28 days.
The death certificate figures only include those with covid on the death certificate. The vast majority of whom were specified as having died directly due to contracting covid.
The underlying cause of death versus cases where it was mentioned as a contributory cause go like this over time:
It's notable that the proportion of deaths directly caused by covid as the underlying cause are higher as a proportion in times when the number of covid deaths is highest (eg at the peaks of the waves; the lowest points are at times when there weren't many covid deaths anyway).
There have been 175,256 deaths with covid-19 on the death certificate. Overall, somewhere in excess of 80-85% of these were directly caused by covid; the remainder had covid as a contributory cause.
The entire "28 day" and "could have been run over by a bus" series of arguments solely refer to the rough-and-ready "Deaths within 28 days of positive test" figures which are solely used to provide an early approximation, as the death certificate data can take a month to come through. It was chosen because the number of incidental deaths (pushing the number higher than it should be) should approximately equal the number of missed covid deaths post-28-days (which pushed the number lower than it should be). For some reason, those criticising it rarely mention the missed deaths but fixate upon the incidental deaths.
As it turns out, it has tended to be a remarkably good early approximation:
Robert Peston @Peston BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
FFS this is in no ones interest.
C'mon, guys. Step back and take a long look at this. It must be the end for BJ. The MPs have to take control, send in the letters, and, if necessary, VONC Boris.
The police investigation cannot be used to allow this to string along and be considered a "reprieve". It's actually an escalation delivered by Sue Gray. The country needs to move on. No-one is indispensable and certainly not Boris now.
It gives me no pleasure to witness another 'greased piglet' moment. Tomorrow's PMQ's will be devoted to the Ukraine and the PM will channel the ghost of Churchill.
The Met have basically saved his premiership. How fecking tawdry can this shit get? Do nothing for weeks, even months and then finally just as Gray is about to hit the 'send' button, Dick decides to launch an investigation.
It stinks to high heaven.
By time Met report no one will remember why they started in first place.
On balance I actually think this will result in a VONC this week.
I don't think they will be able to use it to kick the can. You really don't want your PM being investigated as a criminal ...
No evidence yet Boris will be found guilty of any criminality, even if some No 10 staff are and have to leave
From what has been reported about this incident, he’s guilty of being handed a cake at the office by his missus.
The one incident that can fairly be discribed as an actual party, was when the PM was at Chequers - which raises questions as to who was in charge at the time, and why the police who were on duty didn’t get involved?
Because the police on duty are protection officers with a particular job to do. It's not in their remit to deal with other issues.
And they did not have the time or wit to pick up the phone to colleagues who could have investigated? Pull the other one.
Parliamentary and diplomatic protection command are completely separate department to the rest of the Met.
Long service officers probably don't know anyone at a local police station and clearly no one senior within the team thought it was an issue.
Robert Peston @Peston BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
FFS this is in no ones interest.
There's an argument that this is very much in Starmer's interest. The story keeps rumbling on while the Government is holed beneath the waterline, every week or two Dom feeds another scrap to the ravenous newspapers, and the Conservatives retain their lame duck leader.
I agree, this could be good for Starmer. It's now even less likely Johnson survives but it's also less likely they lance the boil soon. Meanwhile it festers and oozes puss.
This is what Boris Johnson wrote to 7 year old Josephine who cancelled her birthday party:
"Josephine sets a great example to us all by postponing her birthday party until we have sent coronavirus packing.
Together we can beat this. In the meantime let's all wish her happy birthday (twice) whilst washing our hands. #BeLikeJosephine #StayHomeSaveLives"
This is the kind of thing which really cuts through.
And Ruth Davidson rubbing the knife in:
"By coincidence, my partner shares a birthday with the Prime Minister (19th June). We marked it in 2020 by inviting one other household to sit outside, socially distanced, in our garden. It didn't occur to us - literally couldn't conceive - that we would act outside the rules."
I know the Scottish tories really have it in for him at the moment but it's really interesting to see people like Grant Shapps distancing himself from the PM this morning.
Do they know Johnson's time is up?
That was my take, having just listened to it. He's weary with the excuses, surely knows the game is up, and is approaching the point where he can't be bothered to try and defend it all.
That might be significant because Shapps is supposed to be the numbers man on Operation Save Big Dog so perhaps his spreadsheets are telling him Boris is a lost cause.
The new RedfieldWilton poll still has Boris preferred to Sunak as PM amongst 2019 Tory voters 48% to 36%. Yes, 2019 Labour, LD and SNP voters prefer Sunak to Boris as PM but how many of them would switch to the Tories if Sunak became PM?
I suspect Tory MPs are about in the same range as 2019 Tory voters on Boris and for now Boris narrowly wins a VONC
To win a vonc, Boris first has to face one, and then it is not a question of winning but of winning by a large enough margin, as Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May found out.
If the current rules were in place in 1990 then Thatcher's 54% of MPs would have kept her in place. There would have been no second round and Thatcher, not Major, would likely have led the Conservatives at the 1992 general election.
May survived for six months after the December 2018 VONC she won until the May 2019 local and European elections which were admittedly disastrous for the Tories. If Boris wins a VONC now he therefore at least survives until the local elections in May
You miss the point. Winning is not enough. The Prime Minister – any prime minister – needs to win decisively, not by a slim margin that lets them limp on for a few more months.
Back to the Scottish Tories - they obviously don't think Mr Johnson could win a pancake race with a tortoise.
'THE Scottish Conservatives have again dodged questions about the latest “partygate” revelations after refusing to send a representative on the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland radio show.
Hosts were told “no-one was available” to speak to them after it was revealed Boris Johnson attended a birthday bash on Downing Street in June 2020. SNP Westminster leader told the show the Prime Minister had "stuck two fingers up at the rest of us".
Douglas Ross’s party has been accused of blanking the BBC on several other occasions this month following fresh bombshell claims about partying at Number 10.
On January 12, The Scottish Tories declined to be on a panel of MSPs on BBC Scotland's Politics Scotland programme.
On January 16, the Tories went “dark” when asked to provide a representative for the Sunday Show, prompting claims they were "in hiding".'
Not like the good old days when the leader would appear for any photo op, is it?
Stephen Kerr seems to be the one most willing to do the media stuff over the last couple of weeks (which mostly consists of the 'world leading vaccine response' mantra). I wonder if he has ambitions?
Is that "because of Boris" or "forget about Boris for now, we're world leaders in birthday cakes and cheese'?
Robert Peston @Peston BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
FFS this is in no ones interest.
There's an argument that this is very much in Starmer's interest. The story keeps rumbling on while the Government is holed beneath the waterline, every week or two Dom feeds another scrap to the ravenous newspapers, and the Conservatives retain their lame duck leader.
Can Dom keep up the drip-feed without risking a charge of perverting the course of justice?
It gives me no pleasure to witness another 'greased piglet' moment. Tomorrow's PMQ's will be devoted to the Ukraine and the PM will channel the ghost of Churchill.
He might have got away with that when he was popular. If he tries it now it will be such a massive cringe. Other than being overweight and posh, The Lame Duck Clown has absolutely nothing in common with the Great Man
The 154,000 figure is probably just as inaccurate as the 17,000 figure. The correct figure will be somewhere in the middle. 154,000 will include people who mainly died of other things, and the 17,000 figure is people who only died of Covid. I wouldn't trust either of those.
No. That completely misunderstands how Death Certificates record death:
But what does it mean to die with both COVID and a pre-existing condition on the death certificate?
Death certificates list an "underlying cause" and can list several "contributory causes".
When it comes to COVID, we already know that the vast majority of deaths where COVID is mentioned on the death certificate list COVID itself as the underlying cause….
Once you get past your mid-50s, chances are you have a long-term health condition. By the time you reach your 70s, you have to be extremely lucky not to.
So that is a *lot* of people with pre-existing conditions. If any of them were unlucky enough to have caught COVID, get severely ill and die, all it takes is for these conditions to have *some* impact for it to end up as a contributory cause on the death certificate.
Robert Peston @Peston BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
FFS this is in no ones interest.
There's an argument that this is very much in Starmer's interest. The story keeps rumbling on while the Government is holed beneath the waterline, every week or two Dom feeds another scrap to the ravenous newspapers, and the Conservatives retain their lame duck leader.
Can Dom keep up the drip-feed without risking a charge of perverting the course of justice?
These are the kind of reasons why he should now speed up if he wants to achieve anything.
The Met have basically saved his premiership. How fecking tawdry can this shit get? Do nothing for weeks, even months and then finally just as Gray is about to hit the 'send' button, Dick decides to launch an investigation.
It stinks to high heaven.
By time Met report no one will remember why they started in first place.
Betting disagrees. His odds to go this year have shortened further.
Robert Peston @Peston BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
FFS this is in no ones interest.
There's an argument that this is very much in Starmer's interest. The story keeps rumbling on while the Government is holed beneath the waterline, every week or two Dom feeds another scrap to the ravenous newspapers, and the Conservatives retain their lame duck leader.
The Tories have to act immediately. The rot has set in.
I'm sure some principled type will come out with some wank like "we can't set a precedent where we knife a PM over just allegations, wait for the Met to do their job".
Watch Hunt, Wallace, even Ross.
If Sunak wants to be PM rather than LOTO then he needs to act now.
So Sue Gray hands the hospital pass to someone else.
Meanwhile Tory MPs have to make a decision. Will they?
This is pathetic.
What do you think - Tory MPs won't do anything because there is no guarantee they will get the 180 votes required to get shot of him .
Johnson will be PM for the rest of this year at least now.
Normal person is investigated by Plod for something relevant to his/her work = suspended from job till things are sorted out one way or another (unless there is enough evidence for summary dismissal).
Edit: the comparison will not look good. Or what am I missing?
* I'm using 2016 to 2020. The ONS are using 2016 to 2019 and 2021, which seems silly to me. I guess they don't want to switch at the end of March, which is what I will do, and think it's best to have the five-year average inflated by COVID now but then not so much after March.
Presumably our epidemioligists will be applying exponential growth to the last 3 entries and conclude that death will be completely abolished some time later this year?
Surely that is exactly what one would expect. (Not the abolition of death, obvs!) Quite a few of my age-group had their deaths 'hastened' by Covid, so they are not around to die this year.
Has anyone compared the figures with the previous major flu outbreaks?
Robert Peston @Peston BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
FFS this is in no ones interest.
There's an argument that this is very much in Starmer's interest. The story keeps rumbling on while the Government is holed beneath the waterline, every week or two Dom feeds another scrap to the ravenous newspapers, and the Conservatives retain their lame duck leader.
The Tories have to act immediately. The rot has set in.
I'm sure some principled type will come out with some wank like "we can't set a precedent where we knife a PM over just allegations, wait for the Met to do their job".
Watch Hunt, Wallace, even Ross.
If Sunak wants to be PM rather than LOTO then he needs to act now.
I suspect he is another David Miliband.
Of course David Miliband did not even end up LOTO in the end, let alone PM.
The party will move further to the populist right in opposition as Labour moved to the populist left in opposition when it lost in 2010
Robert Peston @Peston BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
FFS this is in no ones interest.
There's an argument that this is very much in Starmer's interest. The story keeps rumbling on while the Government is holed beneath the waterline, every week or two Dom feeds another scrap to the ravenous newspapers, and the Conservatives retain their lame duck leader.
Not sure Cummings is going to be able to continue his stories while a police investigation is proceeding
Robert Peston @Peston BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
FFS this is in no ones interest.
There's an argument that this is very much in Starmer's interest. The story keeps rumbling on while the Government is holed beneath the waterline, every week or two Dom feeds another scrap to the ravenous newspapers, and the Conservatives retain their lame duck leader.
Can Dom keep up the drip-feed without risking a charge of perverting the course of justice?
There are those on here who will have a much better idea of this, but as I understand it:
Dom deliberately withholding evidence from the Met investigation could land him in trouble. So let's assume for now he tells Dick of the Yard everything he knows.
But until there's an arrest, he can still leak whatever he likes to the papers. It's only when an arrest is made that it becomes contempt of court.
So Sue Gray hands the hospital pass to someone else.
Meanwhile Tory MPs have to make a decision. Will they?
This is pathetic.
What do you think - Tory MPs won't do anything because there is no guarantee they will get the 180 votes required to get shot of him .
Johnson will be PM for the rest of this year at least now.
Normal person is investigated by Plod for something relevant to his/her work = suspended from job till things are sorted out one way or another (unless there is enough evidence for summary dismissal).
Edit: the comparison will not look good. Or what am I missing?
If the person is his or her own boss, they continue working unless they themselves decide not to. Like technically his boss is The Queen, but she's not going to suspend him.
Robert Peston @Peston BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
FFS this is in no ones interest.
There's an argument that this is very much in Starmer's interest. The story keeps rumbling on while the Government is holed beneath the waterline, every week or two Dom feeds another scrap to the ravenous newspapers, and the Conservatives retain their lame duck leader.
The Tories have to act immediately. The rot has set in.
I'm sure some principled type will come out with some wank like "we can't set a precedent where we knife a PM over just allegations, wait for the Met to do their job".
Watch Hunt, Wallace, even Ross.
If Sunak wants to be PM rather than LOTO then he needs to act now.
I suspect he is another David Miliband.
Sunak's resignation is still a potential wildcard.
However, he seems to have been at the party himself, however briefly, which won't help him in that.
If some other big hitters were to come out against Boris, on the other hand..
On balance I actually think this will result in a VONC this week.
I don't think they will be able to use it to kick the can. You really don't want your PM being investigated as a criminal ...
No evidence yet Boris will be found guilty of any criminality, even if some No 10 staff are and have to leave
From what has been reported about this incident, he’s guilty of being handed a cake at the office by his missus.
The one incident that can fairly be discribed as an actual party, was when the PM was at Chequers - which raises questions as to who was in charge at the time, and why the police who were on duty didn’t get involved?
Because the police on duty are protection officers with a particular job to do. It's not in their remit to deal with other issues.
And they did not have the time or wit to pick up the phone to colleagues who could have investigated? Pull the other one.
Parliamentary and diplomatic protection command are completely separate department to the rest of the Met.
Long service officers probably don't know anyone at a local police station and clearly no one senior within the team thought it was an issue.
I find it implausible that they were completely unable to find someone within the Met who would have had responsibility to investigate such a matter.
The fact that no-one senior may have thought it was an issue is surely part of the problem. The rules applied to them too.
Then I think that maybe you are right - this is an elite section of the police force - until I remember that one of its members was Wayne Couzens.
Anyway how can the Met possibly investigate this now? Both Cressida and others have been photographed in public breaching the rules in force at the time. They'd have to investigate themselves too.
So Sue Gray hands the hospital pass to someone else.
Meanwhile Tory MPs have to make a decision. Will they?
This is pathetic.
What do you think - Tory MPs won't do anything because there is no guarantee they will get the 180 votes required to get shot of him .
Johnson will be PM for the rest of this year at least now.
Normal person is investigated by Plod for something relevant to his/her work = suspended from job till things are sorted out one way or another (unless there is enough evidence for summary dismissal).
Edit: the comparison will not look good. Or what am I missing?
Our PM, as PM, isn't being investigated, AIUI. It's whether or not the law was broken by person or persons unestablished at a particular place of work. You wouldn't close down the entire firm under those circumstances.
The sight of Rees-Mogg coming out to praise the glorious leadership and of Johnson amidst a police investigation should be enough to tip enough MPs to put their letters in
The 154,000 figure is probably just as inaccurate as the 17,000 figure. The correct figure will be somewhere in the middle. 154,000 will include people who mainly died of other things, and the 17,000 figure is people who only died of Covid. I wouldn't trust either of those.
No. That completely misunderstands how Death Certificates record death:
But what does it mean to die with both COVID and a pre-existing condition on the death certificate?
Death certificates list an "underlying cause" and can list several "contributory causes".
When it comes to COVID, we already know that the vast majority of deaths where COVID is mentioned on the death certificate list COVID itself as the underlying cause….
Once you get past your mid-50s, chances are you have a long-term health condition. By the time you reach your 70s, you have to be extremely lucky not to.
So that is a *lot* of people with pre-existing conditions. If any of them were unlucky enough to have caught COVID, get severely ill and die, all it takes is for these conditions to have *some* impact for it to end up as a contributory cause on the death certificate.
Anyway how can the Met possibly investigate this now? Both Cressida and others have been photographed in public breaching the rules in force at the time. They'd have to investigate themselves too.
The obvious strategy way to avoid embarrassment would be to do the investigation really, really slowly.
=== Precisely because the police are investigating and will be for some considerable time.
Still, points to Rayner for at least trying.
Dame Cressida has shot the hapless Starmer's PMQs fox.
It had the makings of a classic, but now Johnson can repeat ad nauseum. "I think it is best to wait until the Met police make public their investigation into No 10 work events, which Dame Cressida assures me will be concluded by 2032".
So Sue Gray hands the hospital pass to someone else.
Meanwhile Tory MPs have to make a decision. Will they?
This is pathetic.
What do you think - Tory MPs won't do anything because there is no guarantee they will get the 180 votes required to get shot of him .
Johnson will be PM for the rest of this year at least now.
Normal person is investigated by Plod for something relevant to his/her work = suspended from job till things are sorted out one way or another (unless there is enough evidence for summary dismissal).
Edit: the comparison will not look good. Or what am I missing?
Our PM, as PM, isn't being investigated, AIUI. It's whether or not the law was broken by person or persons unestablished at a particular place of work. You wouldn't close down the entire firm under those circumstances.
Ah, thanks. That must be part of the excuse ("a wee girl did it and ran away").
Anyway how can the Met possibly investigate this now? Both Cressida and others have been photographed in public breaching the rules in force at the time. They'd have to investigate themselves too.
The obvious strategy way to avoid embarrassment would be to do the investigation really, really slowly.
How long did the cash for honours or whatever it was take? This could be months and months, even stretching all year.
For a country so often held up as a grown up example, they really are a bunch of childish fools - energy and foreign policy - completely off their rocker.
The 154,000 figure is probably just as inaccurate as the 17,000 figure. The correct figure will be somewhere in the middle. 154,000 will include people who mainly died of other things, and the 17,000 figure is people who only died of Covid. I wouldn't trust either of those.
No. That completely misunderstands how Death Certificates record death:
But what does it mean to die with both COVID and a pre-existing condition on the death certificate?
Death certificates list an "underlying cause" and can list several "contributory causes".
When it comes to COVID, we already know that the vast majority of deaths where COVID is mentioned on the death certificate list COVID itself as the underlying cause….
Once you get past your mid-50s, chances are you have a long-term health condition. By the time you reach your 70s, you have to be extremely lucky not to.
So that is a *lot* of people with pre-existing conditions. If any of them were unlucky enough to have caught COVID, get severely ill and die, all it takes is for these conditions to have *some* impact for it to end up as a contributory cause on the death certificate.
Comments
Prof Colin TALBOT
@colinrtalbot
·
15m
According to Sue Gray's Terms of Reference her investigation may be halted in the event of a Police inquiry.
If it is 'paused' then it could be for weeks, or even months. And PM, Cabinet ministers and MPs will refuse to comment.
Or you can see a similar same thing here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/deaths
"The proportion of deaths involving COVID-19, where COVID-19 was the underlying cause decreased between November and December 2021 in both England (from 84.9% to 83.8%) and Wales (from 83.9% to 79.6%).
These proportions generally correspond with periods of high or low numbers of deaths. In England, the proportion of deaths involving COVID-19 that were also due to COVID-19 was highest in April 2020 (95.2%) and lowest in May 2021 (68.8%). In Wales, this proportion was highest in April 2020 (94.1%) and lowest in June 2021 (42.9%).
The doctor certifying a death can list all causes in the chain of events that led to the death, and pre-existing conditions that may have contributed to the death. Deaths with COVID-19 mentioned anywhere on the death certificate are defined as deaths involving COVID-19. Deaths where COVID-19 is also the underlying cause of death are defined as deaths due to COVID-19."
Presumably the total "deaths due to covid" isn't hard to find (though I can't see it).
I have a 4G phone but most of the time my phone says on the top "H+" which I believe is a variation of 3G? I'm assuming it connects to that only if it can't find 4G since that's a lesser service?
If 3G is shut down would that be H+ and other related services shut down too?
And if 4G isn't available and 3G is shut down then what then?
5G still hasn't reached where I live yet.
Again.
By the time the Met investigation is concluded, perhaps eighteen months to two years time, everyone will have moved on. Mr Johnson will be technically exonerated because the CPS will determine they cannot proceed on the basis of what defines a party or a work event.
This is pure Animal Farm.
Two weeks ago I looked at the daunting number of assignments and commissions I had coming in. A lot of work. Now, I like my work. Sometimes I love it. But it is still work
Then I thought: wait, I don’t have to do this in Camden in freezing January and February. I can do it somewhere lovely and cheap and sunny and, yes, by the sea
I examined the possibilities (Covid permitting) and thought: yay, three or four weeks in Sri Lanka? What an excellent decision it was
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19872116.scottish-tories-go-dark-bbc-boris-johnson-parties/?ref=ebbn
'THE Scottish Conservatives have again dodged questions about the latest “partygate” revelations after refusing to send a representative on the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland radio show.
Hosts were told “no-one was available” to speak to them after it was revealed Boris Johnson attended a birthday bash on Downing Street in June 2020. SNP Westminster leader told the show the Prime Minister had "stuck two fingers up at the rest of us".
Douglas Ross’s party has been accused of blanking the BBC on several other occasions this month following fresh bombshell claims about partying at Number 10.
On January 12, The Scottish Tories declined to be on a panel of MSPs on BBC Scotland's Politics Scotland programme.
On January 16, the Tories went “dark” when asked to provide a representative for the Sunday Show, prompting claims they were "in hiding".'
Not like the good old days when the leader would appear for any photo op, is it?
Robert Peston
@Peston
BREAKING: Sue Gray will not publish her partygate report while the Met police investigate. So it will not be published this week and probably not for many weeks. This is some kind of reprieve for the prime minister. She will continue her investigation though
FFS this is in no ones interest.
Corbyn did inspire millions of people.
He inspired them them to vote Conservative.
https://twitter.com/Paul1Singh/status/1485898161960931329?s=20
And with Boris we have someone who had regularly lived close to the edge career wise - a 5% or 10% loss in his abilities would be all it takes for the fuckups to become damaging.
Bonus points are, of course, available if the person the Met Police prosecute is a Mr D Cummings.
https://twitter.com/jamieklingler/status/1485917955800117250
But there was an argument that covid deaths specifically don't count because those people were going to die sooner or later anyway. It's a stupid argument, and it's an ugly argument.
The police investigation cannot be used to allow this to string along and be considered a "reprieve". It's actually an escalation delivered by Sue Gray. The country needs to move on. No-one is indispensable and certainly not Boris now.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2006/dec/15/uk.partyfunding
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2007/feb/01/partyfunding.uk
Eadric should be outraged if the Conservative Party overlook this rule breaking, be it in spirit or in law.
I'm sure some principled type will come out with some wank like "we can't set a precedent where we knife a PM over just allegations, wait for the Met to do their job".
Watch Hunt, Wallace, even Ross.
Meanwhile Tory MPs have to make a decision. Will they?
This is pathetic.
http://www.clan-cameron.org/basics.html#TARTANS
The death certificate figures only include those with covid on the death certificate. The vast majority of whom were specified as having died directly due to contracting covid.
The underlying cause of death versus cases where it was mentioned as a contributory cause go like this over time:
It's notable that the proportion of deaths directly caused by covid as the underlying cause are higher as a proportion in times when the number of covid deaths is highest (eg at the peaks of the waves; the lowest points are at times when there weren't many covid deaths anyway).
There have been 175,256 deaths with covid-19 on the death certificate. Overall, somewhere in excess of 80-85% of these were directly caused by covid; the remainder had covid as a contributory cause.
The entire "28 day" and "could have been run over by a bus" series of arguments solely refer to the rough-and-ready "Deaths within 28 days of positive test" figures which are solely used to provide an early approximation, as the death certificate data can take a month to come through. It was chosen because the number of incidental deaths (pushing the number higher than it should be) should approximately equal the number of missed covid deaths post-28-days (which pushed the number lower than it should be). For some reason, those criticising it rarely mention the missed deaths but fixate upon the incidental deaths.
As it turns out, it has tended to be a remarkably good early approximation:
https://clan.com/family/cameron
The Met have basically saved his premiership. How fecking tawdry can this shit get? Do nothing for weeks, even months and then finally just as Gray is about to hit the 'send' button, Dick decides to launch an investigation.
It stinks to high heaven.
By time Met report no one will remember why they started in first place.
Long service officers probably don't know anyone at a local police station and clearly no one senior within the team thought it was an issue.
Definitely soothing.
But what does it mean to die with both COVID and a pre-existing condition on the death certificate?
Death certificates list an "underlying cause" and can list several "contributory causes".
When it comes to COVID, we already know that the vast majority of deaths where COVID is mentioned on the death certificate list COVID itself as the underlying cause….
Once you get past your mid-50s, chances are you have a long-term health condition. By the time you reach your 70s, you have to be extremely lucky not to.
So that is a *lot* of people with pre-existing conditions. If any of them were unlucky enough to have caught COVID, get severely ill and die, all it takes is for these conditions to have *some* impact for it to end up as a contributory cause on the death certificate.
https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1485570730867765251?s=20
I think that just wrecked the EuCo deal where both Gas and Nuclear were declared green.
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/germany-cries-foul-over-nuclear-energy-eus-green-investment-rule-book-2022-01-22/
Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
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48s
Labour’s Angela Rayner responds:
“With Boris Johnson's Downing Street now under police investigation, how on earth can he think he can stay on as Prime Minister?”
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1485929743782453248
===
Precisely because the police are investigating and will be for some considerable time.
Still, points to Rayner for at least trying.
They almost seem proud of having turned themselves into Putin’s bitch.
I suspect he is another David Miliband.
Edit: the comparison will not look good. Or what am I missing?
Has anyone compared the figures with the previous major flu outbreaks?
Or is there a PhD in it for someone somewhere?
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1485659356318232579
LAB: 41% (-2)
CON: 34% (+4)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-2)
REFUK: 3% (-1)
The party will move further to the populist right in opposition as Labour moved to the populist left in opposition when it lost in 2010
For the next few months anytime a new party revelation comes out or if the PM/Tory MPs and ministers are asked about it they will reply with
‘This is an ongoing police investigation, we cannot comment on it.’
The public will love being told that.
Dom deliberately withholding evidence from the Met investigation could land him in trouble. So let's assume for now he tells Dick of the Yard everything he knows.
But until there's an arrest, he can still leak whatever he likes to the papers. It's only when an arrest is made that it becomes contempt of court.
However, he seems to have been at the party himself, however briefly, which won't help him in that.
If some other big hitters were to come out against Boris, on the other hand..
The fact that no-one senior may have thought it was an issue is surely part of the problem. The rules applied to them too.
Then I think that maybe you are right - this is an elite section of the police force - until I remember that one of its members was Wayne Couzens.
Anyway how can the Met possibly investigate this now? Both Cressida and others have been photographed in public breaching the rules in force at the time. They'd have to investigate themselves too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUmXdMdRkQ0
PMQs with Boris saying ‘This is an ongoing police investigation, I cannot comment on it.’ multiple times tomorrow is going to be fun.
For calculating government pensions, or similar, that may be necessary, But in normal terms they died of COVID.
It had the makings of a classic, but now Johnson can repeat ad nauseum. "I think it is best to wait until the Met police make public their investigation into No 10 work events, which Dame Cressida assures me will be concluded by 2032".
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-deaths-cumulative-economist-single-entity?country=~GBR