"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
Uniting the Tories around Boris is a good thing for Starmer. Boris is toxic with the electorate. The Tories used to be smart enough to ditch deadweight. If they keep Boris in position they deserve to get slammed in the next election.
And @Scott_xP I'm not so sure. There are two years before the next GE. I'm not so sure that Boris is as toxic with the electorate as he is with PB posters. I have already conducted a comprehensive survey of two provincial taxi drivers both of whom remain Boris fans and even said they feel sorry for him.
He got Brexit done which will underpin a large proportion of his support. Not to say GE24 is a done deal but neither do I think current polls are a reliable indicator, being mid-term as they are.
I know plenty of lifelong Tories (50+ years worth of elections) who will either spoil their ballot or actively vote against the Tory candidate if he’s still leader at the next election. Those stories prophesizing the crumbling blue wall might well have some substance if they are not careful.
Interesting. I suppose what gets me is that this is Boris. Always has been and always will be. I suppose the only thing that has changed since 2019 is Corbyn. Sentient people have always known that Boris is a solipsistic tosser. Why the sudden outrage about him being presented with a birthday cake on his birthday.
Because most people don't for one minute think that that was all it was. He is a lying Cnut, so the irony is that even if it was just "him being presented with a birthday cake on his birthday" (which I doubt very much) most people believe it was a good old knees up, with fatboy having a good giggle at what a jolly jape it is ignoring the rules he put in place.
I can't understand why the police inquiry should have any bearing on Sue Grey's. Surely the sub judice rule doesn't apply to a fixed penalty notice. I smell a rat.
The devious Johnson and Michael Green are trying to buy themselves time
Guardian reporting the Gray report might be split in half, with the part covering events that were not deemed illegal published before the police investigation and the part dealing with events deemed illegal only published later. Presumably the government spin will be "Gray finds govt did nothing wrong" when the first part is published. I mean, they can't possibly think we're that stupid...
They have certainly thought that up to now. If Johnson gets any with this, as I expect he will, then there will be no stopping him. He will believe he can get away with anything and if you look at his life thus far he's not far wrong.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your countriy it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
The issue is that they got themselves into a real cul-de-sac by branding the UK as a "plague island" over the summer and an example of what not to do, the people of Europe bought into that narrative so now reversing it is very difficult. They have to admit that they got it wrong and we got it right and it goes against almost a year of European chest thumping about how the UK is always wrong about everything about COVID and 5 years in general. The politicians of Europe can't stand that we were right and they were wrong and are stuck in the mindset of "must eliminate COVID" because we aren't. I think of western Europe only Spain and France have fully grasped that COVID is here to stay. Every other country is pursuing a mix of elimination and suppression strategy.
You seem obsessed with "plague island" a phrase I have only heard from you. I've even tried searching for "Pestinsel" in German news media, but mostly get hits referring to an island the Venetians used for quarantine.
The idea that restrictions policies around here are even slightly motivated by worries about people thinking that Britain got it right is completely absurd.
Hmmm. That article has a link to one article in Die Welt from December 2020 that doesn't mention "plague island" once, and focuses mainly on British people being upset at Christmas being cancelled and tries to link this to supposed inevitable disappointment about Brexit.
The only reference there to "plague island" seems to be from the New York Times
I mean that was just the first link I saw. There are others. The idea this is all in Max’s head has been disproven.
I am not going to claim to have done a sweeping survey of European media, but I do listen to and read German media every day, and talk to German people every day. I was stupidly under the impression that "plague island" is not a thing (at least in Germany), and that nobody is obsessed with trying to prove that everything the UK does is wrong, and that mask mandates in the supermarkets of NRW weren't being kept in place just because Britain has got rid of them.
But obviously I bow to your and Max's clearly superior knowledge on the subject, based on such deep research and insight.
It only took a two second google search to reveal it wasn’t a figment of his imagination.
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
Uniting the Tories around Boris is a good thing for Starmer. Boris is toxic with the electorate. The Tories used to be smart enough to ditch deadweight. If they keep Boris in position they deserve to get slammed in the next election.
And @Scott_xP I'm not so sure. There are two years before the next GE. I'm not so sure that Boris is as toxic with the electorate as he is with PB posters. I have already conducted a comprehensive survey of two provincial taxi drivers both of whom remain Boris fans and even said they feel sorry for him.
He got Brexit done which will underpin a large proportion of his support. Not to say GE24 is a done deal but neither do I think current polls are a reliable indicator, being mid-term as they are.
Agree entirely - Boris is an idiot and buffoon but he is "our buffoon" - there was a lot of anger in voters from 2016 to 2019 as the establishment did not appear to want to honour the referendum result - hence the reason Boris was elected
But we don't need to rely on taxi driver anecdotes. HYUFD gave us the polls earlier. Even if you restrict to Tory voters, he doesn't have a majority that want him to stay. A third of his own voters want him to go. And you need more than your own voters to win a majority.
The longer Boris is in his position, the longer people will feel aligned with Starmer and Labour. There is MAYBE a case for hanging onto him until the locals so a new leader isn't damaged by that. But any longer is just cowardice and stupidity from the PCP. Especially when they have a competent, popular replacement lined up who polls well with swing voters and has Leave credentials for the base.
Mr. Crandles, Jan-Mar 2022 departure was 2.6 early this morning, 4.2 shortly after Met announcement, now 5.2. July 2022 or later down to 1.87.
As I was saying, a noticeable lowering of the implied chance of departure from 38.5% chance to under 20%. as if it is a delay.
2.6 = 38.5% chance was ridiculous, I would have thought 5% chance should have increased to ~ 7 to 9%, because of the time to find new leader was already going to put it past March. The real change is an increased chance of acting leader being needed. But markets aren't seeing it as I do.
I think you're wrong, I sense he's probably safe now for a while, but that's precisely when you have a great betting opportunity - when you see things differently to most others.
I am saying the 5.2 price is still too low.
There is less difference now than there was so I have reduced my exposure to cash in some of the profits.
Ah yes, I see. So I don't think you're wrong then. I've been laying that early exit date too.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your countriy it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
The issue is that they got themselves into a real cul-de-sac by branding the UK as a "plague island" over the summer and an example of what not to do, the people of Europe bought into that narrative so now reversing it is very difficult. They have to admit that they got it wrong and we got it right and it goes against almost a year of European chest thumping about how the UK is always wrong about everything about COVID and 5 years in general. The politicians of Europe can't stand that we were right and they were wrong and are stuck in the mindset of "must eliminate COVID" because we aren't. I think of western Europe only Spain and France have fully grasped that COVID is here to stay. Every other country is pursuing a mix of elimination and suppression strategy.
You seem obsessed with "plague island" a phrase I have only heard from you. I've even tried searching for "Pestinsel" in German news media, but mostly get hits referring to an island the Venetians used for quarantine.
The idea that restrictions policies around here are even slightly motivated by worries about people thinking that Britain got it right is completely absurd.
Hmmm. That article has a link to one article in Die Welt from December 2020 that doesn't mention "plague island" once, and focuses mainly on British people being upset at Christmas being cancelled and tries to link this to supposed inevitable disappointment about Brexit.
The only reference there to "plague island" seems to be from the New York Times
I mean that was just the first link I saw. There are others. The idea this is all in Max’s head has been disproven.
I am not going to claim to have done a sweeping survey of European media, but I do listen to and read German media every day, and talk to German people every day. I was stupidly under the impression that "plague island" is not a thing (at least in Germany), and that nobody is obsessed with trying to prove that everything the UK does is wrong, and that mask mandates in the supermarkets of NRW weren't being kept in place just because Britain has got rid of them.
But obviously I bow to your and Max's clearly superior knowledge on the subject, based on such deep research and insight.
It only took a two second google search to reveal it wasn’t a figment of his imagination.
I said that I had never heard the phrase, except from him. I never said that he had made it up. I live in "Europe", which is apparently entirely motivated in all its policies by not doing anything that Britain has ever done in case it looks like Britain got something right (this is completely bonkers). You managed to prove that the New York Times used the phrase in 2020. This does not show that I have heard the phrase before, nor that there is a pan-European branding exercise to call the UK Plague Island.
So what? Does that have any relevance to the absurd claim that German politicians are sitting there saying "oh no we can't remove restrictions because somebody might think that means that Britain got something right"?
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your countriy it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
The issue is that they got themselves into a real cul-de-sac by branding the UK as a "plague island" over the summer and an example of what not to do, the people of Europe bought into that narrative so now reversing it is very difficult. They have to admit that they got it wrong and we got it right and it goes against almost a year of European chest thumping about how the UK is always wrong about everything about COVID and 5 years in general. The politicians of Europe can't stand that we were right and they were wrong and are stuck in the mindset of "must eliminate COVID" because we aren't. I think of western Europe only Spain and France have fully grasped that COVID is here to stay. Every other country is pursuing a mix of elimination and suppression strategy.
You seem obsessed with "plague island" a phrase I have only heard from you. I've even tried searching for "Pestinsel" in German news media, but mostly get hits referring to an island the Venetians used for quarantine.
The idea that restrictions policies around here are even slightly motivated by worries about people thinking that Britain got it right is completely absurd.
Hmmm. That article has a link to one article in Die Welt from December 2020 that doesn't mention "plague island" once, and focuses mainly on British people being upset at Christmas being cancelled and tries to link this to supposed inevitable disappointment about Brexit.
The only reference there to "plague island" seems to be from the New York Times
I mean that was just the first link I saw. There are others. The idea this is all in Max’s head has been disproven.
I am not going to claim to have done a sweeping survey of European media, but I do listen to and read German media every day, and talk to German people every day. I was stupidly under the impression that "plague island" is not a thing (at least in Germany), and that nobody is obsessed with trying to prove that everything the UK does is wrong, and that mask mandates in the supermarkets of NRW weren't being kept in place just because Britain has got rid of them.
But obviously I bow to your and Max's clearly superior knowledge on the subject, based on such deep research and insight.
It only took a two second google search to reveal it wasn’t a figment of his imagination.
I said that I had never heard the phrase, except from him. I never said that he had made it up. I live in "Europe", which is apparently entirely motivated in all its policies by not doing anything that Britain has ever done in case it looks like Britain got something right (this is completely bonkers). You managed to prove that the New York Times used the phrase in 2020. This does not show that I have heard the phrase before, nor that there is a pan-European branding exercise to call the UK Plague Island.
So what? Does that have any relevance to the absurd claim that German politicians are sitting there saying "oh no we can't remove restrictions because somebody might think that means that Britain got something right"?
It’s a bit rich to have a shot at me for my “deep research and insight” when you didn’t even think the search for it yourself.
It’s not too controversial to suggest that “plague island” accurately describes the impression people in Europe had and have about the UK.
"The decision to pause the publication of the parts of the Sue Gray report relating to events being investigated by the police seems to have been taken by government, not by the Met, my colleague Vikram Dodd reports. He has been told, by sources with knowledge of its discussions and actions, that the Met did not raise any objection to the publication of the Gray report."
So now what seems to be emerging is a clear case of the government trying to hide the report. This itself will become a political issue, and I expect Starmer to raise it very shortly, particularly with his cps background.
Starmer should lay a motion calling for the publication of the report now and in full, wearing his ex DPP hat to explain why it’s ok. And then challenge the Tory rebels to vote with the government. That would be super awkward for them if the agreed plan is now to let Boris ride out the next few months.
Seriously? It would be the same as calling for BoJo to resign. It would unite the Conservatives around their leader.
Uniting the Tories around Boris is a good thing for Starmer. Boris is toxic with the electorate. The Tories used to be smart enough to ditch deadweight. If they keep Boris in position they deserve to get slammed in the next election.
And @Scott_xP I'm not so sure. There are two years before the next GE. I'm not so sure that Boris is as toxic with the electorate as he is with PB posters. I have already conducted a comprehensive survey of two provincial taxi drivers both of whom remain Boris fans and even said they feel sorry for him.
He got Brexit done which will underpin a large proportion of his support. Not to say GE24 is a done deal but neither do I think current polls are a reliable indicator, being mid-term as they are.
Agree entirely - Boris is an idiot and buffoon but he is "our buffoon" - there was a lot of anger in voters from 2016 to 2019 as the establishment did not appear to want to honour the referendum result - hence the reason Boris was elected
But we don't need to rely on taxi driver anecdotes. HYUFD gave us the polls earlier. Even if you restrict to Tory voters, he doesn't have a majority that want him to stay. A third of his own voters want him to go. And you need more than your own voters to win a majority.
The longer Boris is in his position, the longer people will feel aligned with Starmer and Labour. There is MAYBE a case for hanging onto him until the locals so a new leader isn't damaged by that. But any longer is just cowardice and stupidity from the PCP. Especially when they have a competent, popular replacement lined up who polls well with swing voters and has Leave credentials for the base.
In parts, though RedfieldWilton yesterday had voters in the West Midlands and Wales still preferring Boris to Sunak as PM
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your countriy it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
The issue is that they got themselves into a real cul-de-sac by branding the UK as a "plague island" over the summer and an example of what not to do, the people of Europe bought into that narrative so now reversing it is very difficult. They have to admit that they got it wrong and we got it right and it goes against almost a year of European chest thumping about how the UK is always wrong about everything about COVID and 5 years in general. The politicians of Europe can't stand that we were right and they were wrong and are stuck in the mindset of "must eliminate COVID" because we aren't. I think of western Europe only Spain and France have fully grasped that COVID is here to stay. Every other country is pursuing a mix of elimination and suppression strategy.
You seem obsessed with "plague island" a phrase I have only heard from you. I've even tried searching for "Pestinsel" in German news media, but mostly get hits referring to an island the Venetians used for quarantine.
The idea that restrictions policies around here are even slightly motivated by worries about people thinking that Britain got it right is completely absurd.
Hmmm. That article has a link to one article in Die Welt from December 2020 that doesn't mention "plague island" once, and focuses mainly on British people being upset at Christmas being cancelled and tries to link this to supposed inevitable disappointment about Brexit.
The only reference there to "plague island" seems to be from the New York Times
I mean that was just the first link I saw. There are others. The idea this is all in Max’s head has been disproven.
I am not going to claim to have done a sweeping survey of European media, but I do listen to and read German media every day, and talk to German people every day. I was stupidly under the impression that "plague island" is not a thing (at least in Germany), and that nobody is obsessed with trying to prove that everything the UK does is wrong, and that mask mandates in the supermarkets of NRW weren't being kept in place just because Britain has got rid of them.
But obviously I bow to your and Max's clearly superior knowledge on the subject, based on such deep research and insight.
It only took a two second google search to reveal it wasn’t a figment of his imagination.
I said that I had never heard the phrase, except from him. I never said that he had made it up. I live in "Europe", which is apparently entirely motivated in all its policies by not doing anything that Britain has ever done in case it looks like Britain got something right (this is completely bonkers). You managed to prove that the New York Times used the phrase in 2020. This does not show that I have heard the phrase before, nor that there is a pan-European branding exercise to call the UK Plague Island.
So what? Does that have any relevance to the absurd claim that German politicians are sitting there saying "oh no we can't remove restrictions because somebody might think that means that Britain got something right"?
It’s a bit rich to have a shot at me for my “deep research and insight” when you didn’t even think the search for it yourself.
It’s not too controversial to suggest that “plague island” accurately describes the impression people in Europe had and have about the UK.
What the hell makes you think I didn't search for it? I even searched for it with the German translation "Pestinsel", having not found it in German media under "plague island". Oh yes I even wrote that in the post you replied to (but obviously didn't read very carefully)
I didn't think the New York Times calling Britain "plague island" was particularly good evidence that all European politicians have branded the UK as such. But you obviously have zero curiosity about "Europe" so I'll leave you to you fantasies.
While we are all focused on partygate, Omicron OMG, alias BA2, is still out there, lurking. It has completely overtaken BA1 infections in Denmark, and is rising exponentially, from a low base, in the Netherlands, UK, Germany and France. Is this something to worry about?
Yes, perhaps:
“After contracting Omicron, “we could potentially recontaminate ourselves with BA.2”, warns Olivier Véran #BA2 #Variant”
I see nothing to worry about. The main reason for omicron version 1 (classic) being such a paper tiger in the UK is the high level of protection from vaccination and prior infection (97% of adults with antibodies). Its entirely possible that omicron version 2 may re-infect some who have had omicron 1. So what? Chances of it being severe are exceptionally low, for the reasons discussed many times on here.
Hmm
It doesn’t have to be severe for it to cause a lot of problems. If Omicron OMG is totally outpacing Omicron Classic then Omicron OMG must be fucking incredibly transmissible, or very evasive of immunity.
So it will infect everyone. Again. That means an awful lot of people getting really quite sick all over again. Even if they don’t go to hospital (as you say)
Tho it is worth noting that Danish hospitalisations are soaring:
More reassuringly, their ICU levels are low and stable, however there is some dispute as to how indicative this is, as Denmark has a different policy on ICUs than most
Also a frown-inducing rise in younger people with BA2:
“Omicron, BA2, Denmark: Admissions in the babies soaring in Denmark: as high as the 80+ age group! record highs by what looks like as much as 40x?”
Note, I say FROWN not SCREAM. I am not trying to scare the flakier PBers. But this is a cause for some modest concern
You are making the same mistake again (are you channeling @Chris ?) Its time to rely on the protections we have.
Anecdote from a colleague. His daughter had delta back in November - mildy ill, but pre pandemic would not have been off school (sore throat). Tested positive last week (assumed omicron). NO SYMPTOMS. Can you think of another situation where someone in effectively perfect health is locked at home for 5 days? Its madness.
Omicron 2 will be the same.
Look at our MV beds. Declining, and in fact showed no spike from omicron at all.
Chill, enjoy your knapping in the sun, and stop trying to stir up people about covid...
We need to stop testing well people.....
@Anabobazina I think it was who many moons ago summed it up perfectly which, with minor adaptation is valid today - we are a nation of healthy people trying to avoid other healthy people for fear of a test being shown to be positive.
Yes, that was exactly what was happening before Christmas. I pointed the paradox out to several friends and their responses were identical: "Well if I get it, I have to isolate for ten* days." They were, to a man, more afraid of the isolation than of covid itself.
After Christmas, that effect is seemingly less pronounced. The isolation penalty is now only five days and people don't have the threat of ruining family Christmases, so my experience is that people are much more outgoing.
That said, the gulf between fear of covid vs fear of isolation has probably grown wider: I have friends who were terrified of covid until they contracted Omicron over Christmas and now say: "Er, was that it?"
(*it was still ten days then, of course)
This is why getting rid of mandatory isolation is key to the final return to normal. People can chat as much shit as they want about those who choose not to isolate, yet we've never had by-law isolation for any disease before this on this scale and COVID must become background noise like the flu. It's the only saving grace of this government, IMO. On basically everything else there's nothing behind the curtain, yet on post-vaccine COVID policy through a mixture of Tory MPs and Boris liking to party a lot we've struck upon the right policies while the rest of Europe continues to ratchet up restrictions in a futile attempt to contain it.
Yes, they seem to be set against "letting it rip" - not understanding that, once Omicron is in your countriy it is going to rip and there's nothing you can do about it, with the possible exception of Chinese-style welding people in their homes.
The issue is that they got themselves into a real cul-de-sac by branding the UK as a "plague island" over the summer and an example of what not to do, the people of Europe bought into that narrative so now reversing it is very difficult. They have to admit that they got it wrong and we got it right and it goes against almost a year of European chest thumping about how the UK is always wrong about everything about COVID and 5 years in general. The politicians of Europe can't stand that we were right and they were wrong and are stuck in the mindset of "must eliminate COVID" because we aren't. I think of western Europe only Spain and France have fully grasped that COVID is here to stay. Every other country is pursuing a mix of elimination and suppression strategy.
You seem obsessed with "plague island" a phrase I have only heard from you. I've even tried searching for "Pestinsel" in German news media, but mostly get hits referring to an island the Venetians used for quarantine.
The idea that restrictions policies around here are even slightly motivated by worries about people thinking that Britain got it right is completely absurd.
Hmmm. That article has a link to one article in Die Welt from December 2020 that doesn't mention "plague island" once, and focuses mainly on British people being upset at Christmas being cancelled and tries to link this to supposed inevitable disappointment about Brexit.
The only reference there to "plague island" seems to be from the New York Times
I mean that was just the first link I saw. There are others. The idea this is all in Max’s head has been disproven.
I am not going to claim to have done a sweeping survey of European media, but I do listen to and read German media every day, and talk to German people every day. I was stupidly under the impression that "plague island" is not a thing (at least in Germany), and that nobody is obsessed with trying to prove that everything the UK does is wrong, and that mask mandates in the supermarkets of NRW weren't being kept in place just because Britain has got rid of them.
But obviously I bow to your and Max's clearly superior knowledge on the subject, based on such deep research and insight.
It only took a two second google search to reveal it wasn’t a figment of his imagination.
I said that I had never heard the phrase, except from him. I never said that he had made it up. I live in "Europe", which is apparently entirely motivated in all its policies by not doing anything that Britain has ever done in case it looks like Britain got something right (this is completely bonkers). You managed to prove that the New York Times used the phrase in 2020. This does not show that I have heard the phrase before, nor that there is a pan-European branding exercise to call the UK Plague Island.
So what? Does that have any relevance to the absurd claim that German politicians are sitting there saying "oh no we can't remove restrictions because somebody might think that means that Britain got something right"?
It’s a bit rich to have a shot at me for my “deep research and insight” when you didn’t even think the search for it yourself.
It’s not too controversial to suggest that “plague island” accurately describes the impression people in Europe had and have about the UK.
What the hell makes you think I didn't search for it? I even searched for it with the German translation "Pestinsel", having not found it in German media under "plague island". Oh yes I even wrote that in the post you replied to (but obviously didn't read very carefully)
I didn't think the New York Times calling Britain "plague island" was particularly good evidence that all European politicians have branded the UK as such. But you obviously have zero curiosity about "Europe" so I'll leave you to you fantasies.
Because you seemed to think only Max was the one thinking that. When even the Guardian was saying tha it was the case, maybe he has a point?
Comments
I suppose I shouldn't be but I am still surprised at how many current Conservatives are content to have the country led by a lazy, incompetent liar.
The devious Johnson and Michael Green are trying to buy themselves time
The longer Boris is in his position, the longer people will feel aligned with Starmer and Labour. There is MAYBE a case for hanging onto him until the locals so a new leader isn't damaged by that. But any longer is just cowardice and stupidity from the PCP. Especially when they have a competent, popular replacement lined up who polls well with swing voters and has Leave credentials for the base.
So what? Does that have any relevance to the absurd claim that German politicians are sitting there saying "oh no we can't remove restrictions because somebody might think that means that Britain got something right"?
It’s not too controversial to suggest that “plague island” accurately describes the impression people in Europe had and have about the UK.
I didn't think the New York Times calling Britain "plague island" was particularly good evidence that all European politicians have branded the UK as such. But you obviously have zero curiosity about "Europe" so I'll leave you to you fantasies.