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Punters backing Sunak are ignoring that there isn’t a vacancy – politicalbetting.com
Punters backing Sunak are ignoring that there isn’t a vacancy – politicalbetting.com
Ladbrokes have just reported that 63% of the next PM bets they’ve laid this week have been on the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak. He’s now a very tight favourite in the betting.
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If the local elections in May see heavy Tory losses and the polls are still bad, then the 1922 may enable a second VONC to be held by amending the rules in consultation with the party board. At that point Boris is more likely to lose it. There would then be a leadership election which Sunak would probably win to become next PM. Assuming Tory MPs can concoct a Sunak v Hunt runoff, thus keeping Truss off the ballot paper. Truss polls well with members but terribly with the public overall
Last thread punters have it right bojo odds on to go this year
This thread nailed in position till 2024
Reynolds, two well-placed sources say, has been candid with Gray. “Reynolds is not willing to be the fall guy in all of this,” one government source said. “He’s talking and making his position very clear.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/poisonous-atmosphere-spreads-through-no-10-nest-of-adders-f5wg9pq6m
Then again, like breaking international agreements & law, he might defend it as “breaking the laws and ministerial code in a limited way”
I think great political betting is about distancing oneself and observing as objectively and dispassionately as possible.
Johnson is not giving up without a fight, that's for sure.
Staff throw their uniforms at the police outside Downing Street.
https://twitter.com/SubjectAccesss/status/1484907250821046273?s=20
It's just in the PM's skull, not his office.
He says, 'the chances are' and that therefore he 'surely would make it to the next general election'. There is nothing definite about those statements. It's a cautious and objective balance of probabilities.
I'd say it's 60:40 Johnson will survive to 2024. That's a shift from my 70:30 yesterday.
Given my track record, mortgage your house to the hilt and back him to survive in office until 2031.
The knobhead who confronted Javid admitted that despite thinking he has had COVID, never tested positive, there were many months between being able to get the jab and having an antibody test which he says confirms he has had COVID as some point.
So all the BS he was pushing of I am not an antivaxxer, I have just had COVID, so I don't need it, he didn't take the vaccine even when he had no idea he had ever had COVID.
The only thing saving him (I think) is a Russian invasion on Ukraine
@Steven_Swinford
The operation to save Boris Johnson is well underway - he’s determined to stay no matter what Gray finds
‘The PM is literally the most competitive person imaginable
‘He wants to outlast Dave [Cameron]. He won’t accept the last Etonian PM having survived longer than him’
@Steven_Swinford
·
2h
Boris Johnson allies furious over 1922 committee proposals to change rules to allow 2 confidence votes in year
‘It would be incredibly cynical, a manipulation of process
‘If they get rid of 12-month rule they will no longer be seen as fit for purpose. It would be end of 1922’
@JenGriffinFNC
10m
@LucasFoxNews reports US officials now say Kiev is in Russia’s crosshairs after Russian fighter jets and S400 anti aircraft missile systems arrive in Belarus. First US shipment of 200,000 lbs of ammo arrived in Ukraine last night. More to come: US officials.
https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1484915648291610629
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484883012600963072
Impeachment?
COVID - Thanks to the stupidity of large numbers of Americans on not getting vaccinated we have new data...
https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/01/unvaccinated-5x-more-likely-to-get-omicron-than-those-boosted-cdc-reports/
- Vaccines (and especially boosters) do have an effect on infections rates. A substantial one. So the argument that vaccination does nothin for infection rates turns out to be garbage.
- Massive effects on showing up at A&E
- Massive effects on hospitalisation
Please light a candle for all the fucking morons who died to give us this data.
In the meantime, whoever deposes Boris has to have the power to do so. The voters have that power, but not until 2024. In the meantime, it all depends on whether Boris can bluff, blag, bluster and bully his MPs into continuing to support him.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_in_the_United_Kingdom
But I actually think the ultimate crushing of the Boris Johnson ego would be defenestration at the hands of his own MPs and being booted out of Downing Street.
'That' picture of Margaret Thatcher is one of the most iconic in C20th politics.
Tony Blair, whose ego must match Boris Johnson's, managed to exit stage left (almost literally from the House of Commons) before an irate electorate had the chance to give him the boot. Dave Cameron in a way did something similar.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/01/22/god-save-queen-trends-twitter-ukrainians-celebrate-british-arms/
Proud to be British this evening 🇬🇧 🇺🇦
In fact very similar post. Hmmm..
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1484883012600963072
Heartening stuff for bojo is toasters
Tory members would then have the final say in any subsequent leadership election if that VONC was lost once Tory MPs had whittled it down to 2 candidates
Cases - pretty flat overall. BUT cases are falling in the 15+ groups. The unvaccinated children are flattening a continuing fall
Admissions - Down
MV Beds - Down
In Hospital - Down
Deaths - flat
https://www.google.com/maps/@55.9542988,-3.1933972,3a,90y,76.2h,93.64t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sGx89Qbb_mqkz0sm7sykJUA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dundas_House
The tournament debutants play hosts and five-time champions Cameroon in Yaounde on Monday, but their camp has been hit by 12 positive Covid cases including coach Amir Abdou.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/africa/60097828
Forget the personalities, the game of politics is all about shifting the Overton window in your direction.
You?
Edit: indeed almost zero prospect of any jobs at all, unless you had connections: so sitting "onm the beach" with "half-pay" (not quite that much of a reduction, but still).
Send it back.
Socially however Boris is the most culturally conservative PM we have had since Thatcher and he is also the most Eurosceptic PM since Thatcher, obviously since he implemented Brexit
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Russians
TBH I’m only drinking it because the bar has RUN OUT OF TONIC = no G&T
It wouldn’t have happened during the Raj. And if it had happened, the bar manager would surely have been keelhauled in the bay by the Royal Navy
There were some interesting (and lucrative) jobs around the world - South America and Greece for starters...
I really am sick and tired of all this. It's the Financial Times for goodness sake. Who is the first expert they quote? Deepti Gurdasani the well known covid hysteric and advocate for zero covid. At the end we get something from Christina Pagel (never to be left out of any discussion). I admit that most FT readers are not fans of Johnson and even less so the backbenchers pulling him away from restrictions but it's a lazy appeal to your readers' prejudices.
I do hope that attitudes are now shifting among my centre-left fellow travellers. Many of the comments underneath clearly do not support the article's intention. I spent Christmas with close relatives with three young children. They aren't ideological people and Johnson probably just makes them groan but they're concerned for their children's futures and wondering why there was such reluctance to mention that omicron was milder when all the evidence started to point that way. They were worried about the impact of covid on their children's mental health, both the fear of the disease and the impact of restrictions. They were even a bit concerned about the possible weakening of their general immunity due to the lack of social contact over the last two years.
If people want to persist with masks and work from home mandates, fine. But please tell me when exactly you would remove such things? What would it take for them to withdraw ALL restrictions. If they don't really believe in going to back to the 'old' normal, i.e in person teaching at universities, cinemas theatres and schools without face mask mandates, 'passports' of various kinds, then please say so. At the moment such people just seem to be saying 'no'. At least zero covid was a strategy even if it was implausible.
Most of all I'm sick and tired of those 'experts' who display no humility even when outside their own specialist area of interest, never engage in debate with eminent academics who disagree with them and resort to straw man or indirect arguments. I do want to mention some exceptions. Tim Spector with the Zoe app. Raghib Ali, a Cambridge epidemiologist and frontline doctor and John Campbell of youtube fame. It would be nice if the mainstream media called on him to provide some of his calm, unbiased interpretation of the data. Maybe calling upon someone who lives in the rural north of England isn't really considered the done thing at the BBC, Sky or Channel 4. In a sane world such people would at least be rewarded for their coverage of the pandemic whereas the aforementioned doomsayers would disappear into the ether after the Warholian fifteen minutes are up. We can always hope.
All crises in the home country encouraged further waves of activity. The Union was one such crisis, as was the Jacobite rising, the Killing Times and the fall of Dundas.
As The Athletic reported earlier in the week, the Football Association is currently looking into an incident from this season which involved an Arsenal player being booked. Concerns were raised about suspicious betting patterns.
There is no formal FA investigation at this stage.
It has now come to light that correspondence took place between a bookmaker — based outside the UK — and the International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA) about the incident before The Athletic revealed the FA was looking it.
The emails detail how multiple bets of around $420,000 worth of cryptocurrency were placed on the player in question to get a yellow card — which then happened.
This should have led to winnings of over $1 million (£738,000), but the huge bets placed on the yellow card aroused suspicions at the bookmaker, and an internal investigation concluded the market may have been subject to manipulation.
This led the bookmaker to flag the issue to the International Betting Integrity Association (IBIA). Bookmakers are required to report to authorities when they spot suspicious incidents. Multiple gambling industry insiders have told The Athletic that the pattern of betting surrounding the player being shown a yellow card during the match was highly unusual.
Some betting patterns, such as on gambling “exchanges” where individuals bet with each other rather than against a bookmaker’s own odds, can be viewed publicly.
But most money gambled around the world is gambled on sportsbooks where the data is kept private, and it is never made public how much money is wagered on a particular outcome.
The correspondence seen by The Athletic reveals that for one bookmaker, a huge sum of money was staked on this yellow card, which arose suspicions serious enough for the company to raise concerns to the IBIA.
The bookmaker in question is not a member of the IBIA, but chose to make a voluntary disclosure.
The IBIA works closely with sporting authorities including the FA, sharing information about suspicious betting activity.
https://theathletic.com/3085772/2022/01/22/bookmaker-flagged-420000-bet-on-controversial-arsenal-yellow-card-to-watchdog/
https://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/2132021
Fries my brain, too. It would be nice if just one of these self-appointed Guardians of the Zero Covid Flame ever said Ooops, yes, got that totally wrong, I’ll shut the fuck up for a bit, apologies everyone, I’m an idiot
Because they have been wrong many times (and sometimes maybe right). Trouble is they are professionally invested in the Lockdown Narrative, it has won them attention, followers, fame, probably money and work. So they can’t back down.
It is corrupt and they are wankers
Aren’t you meant to be sailing around Cape Verde?
All I can think is that a lash-up of 'Not Rishi', 'Not The Truss' and other assorted factions who are against one or other of the potential replacements dare not replace the Buffoon because the replacement might not be their chosen one.
Plus there's a few on the front bench who know that as soon as Bozo goes, they'll be next out.
Let the open wound that is the Tory Party fester away until the next election. The longer this goes on, the more it plays into Labour's hands.