Is it shocking? We know about Boris Johnson's comments on Muslims, and he has Zac Goldsmith, who ran an Islamophobic mayoral campaign, in his cabinet. You knew this about Boris before the election. We all did.
Labour was led by Corbyn and the lib dems tried to subvert Brexit, so of course the conservatives won a near landslide
Maybe labour and the lib dems need to look at themselves over GE19
What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.
Even just in terms of active personnel the Ukraine has 209,000 troops. making it the second largest army in Europe after Russia already and just ahead of France which has 203,000. The only Nato nation in Europe or Asia with more troops than Ukraine is Turkey with 355,200.
Counting the zillions of conscripts on either side is meaningless.
The actual fighting capability of both sides is unknown. It is far less for both Russia and Ukraine than the inflated numbers of young men with a rifle and a few weeks training.
What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.
Even just in terms of active personnel the Ukraine has 209,000 troops. making it the second largest army in Europe after Russia already and just ahead of France which has 203,000. The only Nato nation in Europe or Asia with more troops than Ukraine is Turkey with 355,200.
Is it shocking? We know about Boris Johnson's comments on Muslims, and he has Zac Goldsmith, who ran an Islamophobic mayoral campaign, in his cabinet. You knew this about Boris before the election. We all did.
Labour was led by Corbyn and the lib dems tried to subvert Brexit, so of course the conservatives won a near landslide
Maybe labour and the lib dems need to look at themselves over GE19
Well, Labour have changed their leader, and cast Corbyn into the outer darkness.
Whereas the Conservatives continue to have BoJo in situ. And if being in the top team of an obviously terrible leader disqualifies you from future office, where does that leave Rishi?
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
If Russia invades Ukraine there is nothing the UK can do about it - I am surprised some people on here think we can . Why would we want to anyway ? It is a old historical dispute in the far east of Europe that has nothing to do with us on its western extreme.
I sort of get the posturing by the US ,EU and even the UK government to some extent - sometimes bluffing can be effective although I doubt it in this case. I just fail to get why people on here who know Russia will definitely not be bluffed by them still want us to do anything should they invade.
Instead of nuclear disarmament, a bellicose Ukraine starts a massive military build up, complete with nasty dictator threatening all the neighbours.
Why interesting? Because the implication on the position that Ukraine is too weak to resist Russia, so should be carved up is.. that nuclear armed and bellicose is the way to go.
Lots of people out there listening and thinking.
That sound you can hear is spent nuclear reactor fuel rods dissolving in nitric acid....
Lewis Page made this point 20 years ago.
If you were in charge of Taiwan, would you be thinking - "Gee, relying on other countries for defence is sooooo nice. It makes us such nice, happy people. We should never have nuclear weapons. Never" ?
Ditto Japan.
Ditto South Korea.
And every day that passes, more Plutonium 240 becomes Uranium 236...... The future beckons and it is so very, very bright......
Positively incandescent.
For a brief moment, the heart of a large fusion bomb exceeds the temperature and pressures of even a supernova - for an instant it is the most intense thing in the universe since the Big Bang.
On planets circling other stars, the unique light from some of the big tests will be visible. Will alien eyes on unknown worlds see that light through their telescopes and realise the message?
That would be a gamma ray burster, wouldn’t it ?
And unless they’re already here, it would be quite some time after we’re gone before any alien eyes notice anything.
What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.
I think they will fight, and fight hard, but outmatched, at least in the short term.
I don't think that the Russians have the capability to occupy more than few Oblasts though. Even East Ukraine is less Russian than it used to be, and West Ukraine has never been pro Russian, biting off a few oblasts is what they have form for.
It would be crazy to have British forces fighting Russians there. The risks of escalation would be huge, and we managed to avoid that even at the height of the Cold War. Sanctions and arms to Ukraine perhaps, but not troops. Apart from anything else Ukraine has troops.
That seems the most realistic war aim. The trouble is that it's a huge cost for such a paltry gain. Perhaps he thinks he can intimidate Zelensky or a successor to drop the pro Nato stuff. The trouble is that Putin has already taken a country divided between east and west and turned it into one that is facing solidly west. Further military action would only exacerbate that.
What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.
Even just in terms of active personnel the Ukraine has 209,000 troops. making it the second largest army in Europe after Russia already and just ahead of France which has 203,000. The only Nato nation in Europe or Asia with more troops than Ukraine is Turkey with 355,200.
What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.
Even just in terms of active personnel the Ukraine has 209,000 troops. making it the second largest army in Europe after Russia already and just ahead of France which has 203,000. The only Nato nation in Europe or Asia with more troops than Ukraine is Turkey with 355,200.
The Ukraine is perfectly good English. Cf The Argentine.
Ukrainians tend to prefer "Ukraine", FYI. I have avoided making the "correction" myself when people have been using "The", because it's not that important, but if you prefer to get things spot on..
The allegations being made by Nus Ghani are appalling. I really hope they are properly looked into. Bad enough having anti-Semitism in Labour. We certainly don't need anti-Muslim prejudice in the Tories.
What is slightly heartening is the support she is getting from fellow Tory MPs such as William Wragg, Steve Baker and Nadim Zahawi.
The problem is that her allegation is that is what she was told by a whip. We don’t know if that is the reason why she was sacked.
Sounds like Ms Gray is doing a better job than the Met would do, if they ever get around to looking into the kind of law breaking that got students £10k fines.
Germany faced a diplomatic incident on Saturday following comments made by Navy chief Kay-Achim Schönbach on Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Ukraine crisis. Schönbach stepped down from his position late on Saturday.
"I have asked Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht to relieve me from my duties with immediate effect," Vice Admiral Kay-Achim Schoenbach said in a statement cited by the Reuters news agency. "The minister has accepted my request," he added.
The move was prompted by a talk that Schönbach gave during a visit to India. Speaking at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, the German vice-admiral said Putin "probably" deserved respect......"the Crimea Peninsula is gone: It will never come back — this is a fact."
Sounds like Ms Gray is doing a better job than the Met would do, if they ever get around to looking into the kind of law breaking that got students £10k fines.
I was very pleased to read that article as anybody and everybody will have a time stamp on their movements and of course it will identify everyone attending
Is it shocking? We know about Boris Johnson's comments on Muslims, and he has Zac Goldsmith, who ran an Islamophobic mayoral campaign, in his cabinet. You knew this about Boris before the election. We all did.
Labour was led by Corbyn and the lib dems tried to subvert Brexit, so of course the conservatives won a near landslide
Maybe labour and the lib dems need to look at themselves over GE19
Yeah, I guess when it comes down to it I was more comfortable with being offered a second referendum on Brexit than I was with hating Jews and Muslims.
Fine if you want to make a moral equivalence between more democracy and more racism, but I don't. Not today and not ever.
There's a big ol' gulf between policies you don't like and racism. I hope you can quietly recognise that.
The allegations being made by Nus Ghani are appalling. I really hope they are properly looked into. Bad enough having anti-Semitism in Labour. We certainly don't need anti-Muslim prejudice in the Tories.
What is slightly heartening is the support she is getting from fellow Tory MPs such as William Wragg, Steve Baker and Nadim Zahawi.
The problem is that her allegation is that is what she was told by a whip. We don’t know if that is the reason why she was sacked.
You mean, they sacked her for thoroughly legitimate reasons but dressed it up as an act of despicable and illegal hate crime?
A lot of people would do that the other way round.
If Russia invades Ukraine there is nothing the UK can do about it - I am surprised some people on here think we can . Why would we want to anyway ? It is a old historical dispute in the far east of Europe that has nothing to do with us on its western extreme.
I sort of get the posturing by the US ,EU and even the UK government to some extent - sometimes bluffing can be effective although I doubt it in this case. I just fail to get why people on here who know Russia will definitely not be bluffed by them still want us to do anything should they invade.
Instead of nuclear disarmament, a bellicose Ukraine starts a massive military build up, complete with nasty dictator threatening all the neighbours.
Why interesting? Because the implication on the position that Ukraine is too weak to resist Russia, so should be carved up is.. that nuclear armed and bellicose is the way to go.
Lots of people out there listening and thinking.
That sound you can hear is spent nuclear reactor fuel rods dissolving in nitric acid....
Lewis Page made this point 20 years ago.
If you were in charge of Taiwan, would you be thinking - "Gee, relying on other countries for defence is sooooo nice. It makes us such nice, happy people. We should never have nuclear weapons. Never" ?
Ditto Japan.
Ditto South Korea.
And every day that passes, more Plutonium 240 becomes Uranium 236...... The future beckons and it is so very, very bright......
Positively incandescent.
For a brief moment, the heart of a large fusion bomb exceeds the temperature and pressures of even a supernova - for an instant it is the most intense thing in the universe since the Big Bang.
On planets circling other stars, the unique light from some of the big tests will be visible. Will alien eyes on unknown worlds see that light through their telescopes and realise the message?
That would be a gamma ray burster, wouldn’t it ?
And unless they’re already here, it would be quite some time after we’re gone before any alien eyes notice anything.
Is it shocking? We know about Boris Johnson's comments on Muslims, and he has Zac Goldsmith, who ran an Islamophobic mayoral campaign, in his cabinet. You knew this about Boris before the election. We all did.
Labour was led by Corbyn and the lib dems tried to subvert Brexit, so of course the conservatives won a near landslide
Maybe labour and the lib dems need to look at themselves over GE19
Well, Labour have changed their leader, and cast Corbyn into the outer darkness.
Whereas the Conservatives continue to have BoJo in situ. And if being in the top team of an obviously terrible leader disqualifies you from future office, where does that leave Rishi?
Sounds like Ms Gray is doing a better job than the Met would do, if they ever get around to looking into the kind of law breaking that got students £10k fines.
I was very pleased to read that article as anybody and everybody will have a time stamp on their movements and of course it will identify everyone attending
I doubt it will include Johnson. He can't brush his hair never mind weld a digital entry card.
Sounds like Ms Gray is doing a better job than the Met would do, if they ever get around to looking into the kind of law breaking that got students £10k fines.
I was very pleased to read that article as anybody and everybody will have a time stamp on their movements and of course it will identify everyone attending
I doubt it will include Johnson. He can't brush his hair never mind weld a digital entry card.
He is rapidly losing the need to be doing much brushing of hair.
If Russia invades Ukraine there is nothing the UK can do about it - I am surprised some people on here think we can . Why would we want to anyway ? It is a old historical dispute in the far east of Europe that has nothing to do with us on its western extreme.
I sort of get the posturing by the US ,EU and even the UK government to some extent - sometimes bluffing can be effective although I doubt it in this case. I just fail to get why people on here who know Russia will definitely not be bluffed by them still want us to do anything should they invade.
Instead of nuclear disarmament, a bellicose Ukraine starts a massive military build up, complete with nasty dictator threatening all the neighbours.
Why interesting? Because the implication on the position that Ukraine is too weak to resist Russia, so should be carved up is.. that nuclear armed and bellicose is the way to go.
Lots of people out there listening and thinking.
That sound you can hear is spent nuclear reactor fuel rods dissolving in nitric acid....
Lewis Page made this point 20 years ago.
If you were in charge of Taiwan, would you be thinking - "Gee, relying on other countries for defence is sooooo nice. It makes us such nice, happy people. We should never have nuclear weapons. Never" ?
Ditto Japan.
Ditto South Korea.
And every day that passes, more Plutonium 240 becomes Uranium 236...... The future beckons and it is so very, very bright......
Sounds like Ms Gray is doing a better job than the Met would do, if they ever get around to looking into the kind of law breaking that got students £10k fines.
I was very pleased to read that article as anybody and everybody will have a time stamp on their movements and of course it will identify everyone attending
Certainly sounds like someone is applying brains to the matter - between swiping through security, logins to computers etc you can probably build a pretty detailed timeline of who was where.
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
Is it shocking? We know about Boris Johnson's comments on Muslims, and he has Zac Goldsmith, who ran an Islamophobic mayoral campaign, in his cabinet. You knew this about Boris before the election. We all did.
Labour was led by Corbyn and the lib dems tried to subvert Brexit, so of course the conservatives won a near landslide
Maybe labour and the lib dems need to look at themselves over GE19
Yeah, I guess when it comes down to it I was more comfortable with being offered a second referendum on Brexit than I was with hating Jews and Muslims.
Fine if you want to make a moral equivalence between more democracy and more racism, but I don't. Not today and not ever.
There's a big ol' gulf between policies you don't like and racism. I hope you can quietly recognise that.
What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.
Even just in terms of active personnel the Ukraine has 209,000 troops. making it the second largest army in Europe after Russia already and just ahead of France which has 203,000. The only Nato nation in Europe or Asia with more troops than Ukraine is Turkey with 355,200.
The Ukraine is perfectly good English. Cf The Argentine.
Ukrainians tend to prefer "Ukraine", FYI. I have avoided making the "correction" myself when people have been using "The", because it's not that important, but if you prefer to get things spot on..
The reason Ukrainians don't like it is, AIUI, that it defines them relative to Russia ("the borderland"). So in the current context it's probably worth getting it right.
Sounds like Ms Gray is doing a better job than the Met would do, if they ever get around to looking into the kind of law breaking that got students £10k fines.
I was very pleased to read that article as anybody and everybody will have a time stamp on their movements and of course it will identify everyone attending
I doubt it will include Johnson. He can't brush his hair never mind weld a digital entry card.
I expect it does to be honest but of course he could be in his own accommodation
UPDATE - another message through from the person I asked about what was ‘categorically untrue’ who now says it is also “untrue” the comments were said to her.
So a blanket denial & suggestion from govt that Nus Ghani is not telling the truth.
I also note today that PB's elite team of armchair warriors, having given up for now on China invading Taiwan or the UK invading France, are, in the immortal words of Kenny Everett, in "let's bomb Russia" mode. And they want Germany to join in, regardless of the perilous history that has given rise to Germany's caution in respect of military adventurism. Hm.
Yes, I'd forgotten that he also said "let's kick Michael Foot's stick away". Thatcher thought that was hilarious.
That was of course the election where the SDP under Roy Jenkins almost overtook Foot's Labour, getting 25% to Labour's 27% and Thatcher's Tories got 42% and won 397 seats and a landslide majority of 144.
If it was ever going to be safe for a celebrity to mock a Labour leader it was with Foot in 1983, even more so than Corbyn in 2019
Progressive Alliance got 52% of the vote back then, 10 points more than the Tories.
Sounds like Ms Gray is doing a better job than the Met would do, if they ever get around to looking into the kind of law breaking that got students £10k fines.
I was very pleased to read that article as anybody and everybody will have a time stamp on their movements and of course it will identify everyone attending
I doubt it will include Johnson. He can't brush his hair never mind weld a digital entry card.
This gives me the idea for the patent pending Digital Entry Comb-Card
Diplomats are sometimes sneered at. I don't envy our people in Moscow though. Dealing with what appears on the surface to be the entitled, self pitying whining of kleptocrats who've enriched themselves under Putin and nurse a ludicrous grievance against the western world where they nonetheless like to stash their money. It must try the patience of a saint not least having to continually show respect and not seem to be condescending towards them.
If Russia invades Ukraine there is nothing the UK can do about it - I am surprised some people on here think we can . Why would we want to anyway ? It is a old historical dispute in the far east of Europe that has nothing to do with us on its western extreme.
I sort of get the posturing by the US ,EU and even the UK government to some extent - sometimes bluffing can be effective although I doubt it in this case. I just fail to get why people on here who know Russia will definitely not be bluffed by them still want us to do anything should they invade.
Instead of nuclear disarmament, a bellicose Ukraine starts a massive military build up, complete with nasty dictator threatening all the neighbours.
Why interesting? Because the implication on the position that Ukraine is too weak to resist Russia, so should be carved up is.. that nuclear armed and bellicose is the way to go.
Lots of people out there listening and thinking.
That sound you can hear is spent nuclear reactor fuel rods dissolving in nitric acid....
Lewis Page made this point 20 years ago.
If you were in charge of Taiwan, would you be thinking - "Gee, relying on other countries for defence is sooooo nice. It makes us such nice, happy people. We should never have nuclear weapons. Never" ?
Ditto Japan.
Ditto South Korea.
And every day that passes, more Plutonium 240 becomes Uranium 236...... The future beckons and it is so very, very bright......
Positively incandescent.
For a brief moment, the heart of a large fusion bomb exceeds the temperature and pressures of even a supernova - for an instant it is the most intense thing in the universe since the Big Bang.
On planets circling other stars, the unique light from some of the big tests will be visible. Will alien eyes on unknown worlds see that light through their telescopes and realise the message?
That would be a gamma ray burster, wouldn’t it ?
And unless they’re already here, it would be quite some time after we’re gone before any alien eyes notice anything.
What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.
Even just in terms of active personnel the Ukraine has 209,000 troops. making it the second largest army in Europe after Russia already and just ahead of France which has 203,000. The only Nato nation in Europe or Asia with more troops than Ukraine is Turkey with 355,200.
Labour was led by Corbyn and the lib dems tried to subvert Brexit, so of course the conservatives won a near landslide
Maybe labour and the lib dems need to look at themselves over GE19
With respect, December 2019 is ancient history and the opposition parties duly paid the price for their stupidity/incompetence/double dealing (delete as appropriate).
We're in the present and in January 2022 there is only one party plumbing new depths of venality and ineptitude and it's the party with the parliamentary majority.
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
Well, the "fluff" I wrote is formally the same argument I would make for the justice of our involvement in fighting the Nazis. I would be interested to know whether you think that was a good fight for us to be in, and, if so, how your justification for that differs from mine. Genuinely, I think it's incumbent on anyone who has an opinion about this one way or another to consider carefully on what grounds you would sanction military action.
New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.
But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.
What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.
I think they will fight, and fight hard, but outmatched, at least in the short term.
I don't think that the Russians have the capability to occupy more than few Oblasts though. Even East Ukraine is less Russian than it used to be, and West Ukraine has never been pro Russian, biting off a few oblasts is what they have form for.
It would be crazy to have British forces fighting Russians there. The risks of escalation would be huge, and we managed to avoid that even at the height of the Cold War. Sanctions and arms to Ukraine perhaps, but not troops. Apart from anything else Ukraine has troops.
That seems the most realistic war aim. The trouble is that it's a huge cost for such a paltry gain. Perhaps he thinks he can intimidate Zelensky or a successor to drop the pro Nato stuff. The trouble is that Putin has already taken a country divided between east and west and turned it into one that is facing solidly west. Further military action would only exacerbate that.
There is a problem here.
Note that many of the people here, who think that Boris Johnson is drunk buffoon etc etc seem to assume that Putin is a genius, playing 7D chess.
Hermann Kahn spoke of this problem - the assumption of the hyper-rational opponent. Indeed, one of his recommendations in the brilliantly titled chapter "The Problem of Reaching 1975*" was that decision makers at various levels needed to meet each other - socially, even, to get some understanding of each other.
Putin, according to many who have met him, is a Greater Russian Nationalist, but *thinks of himself* as a pragmatist.
The problem is that he is facing internal pressures and is not an absolute ruler.
He may judge that a few square feet of Ukraine will give him more face with the Greater Russian Nationalists in his coalition. Maybe enough to get him through the current problems. Maybe that a battle with the West** is the object of the exercise - Russia Embattled, Nobly! Stands! Alone!
*As in the problem trying to ensure that some humans were still alive in 1975, from the point of view from 1955 ** A battle with anyone West of Russia, that is.
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
Why then would anyone care when next time it’s us ?
What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.
Even just in terms of active personnel the Ukraine has 209,000 troops. making it the second largest army in Europe after Russia already and just ahead of France which has 203,000. The only Nato nation in Europe or Asia with more troops than Ukraine is Turkey with 355,200.
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
If Russia invades Ukraine you will soon care very much
New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.
But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.
its like the middle class couple who buy a pristine house with pristine furniture and alienate their kids and friends by imposing too many rules on what they can and cant do to keep it pristine
New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.
But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.
Diplomats are sometimes sneered at. I don't envy our people in Moscow though. Dealing with what appears on the surface to be the entitled, self pitying whining of kleptocrats who've enriched themselves under Putin and nurse a ludicrous grievance against the western world where they nonetheless like to stash their money. It must try the patience of a saint not least having to continually show respect and not seem to be condescending towards them.
It would be far beyond me to keep calm. I'd probably try to choke someone within about an hour and have to be bayonetted by the Presidential Guard.
Labour was led by Corbyn and the lib dems tried to subvert Brexit, so of course the conservatives won a near landslide
Maybe labour and the lib dems need to look at themselves over GE19
With respect, December 2019 is ancient history and the opposition parties duly paid the price for their stupidity/incompetence/double dealing (delete as appropriate).
We're in the present and in January 2022 there is only one party plumbing new depths of venality and ineptitude and it's the party with the parliamentary majority.
New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.
But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.
its like the middle class couple who buy a pristine house with pristine furniture and alienate their kids and friends by imposing too many rules on what they can and cant do to keep it pristine
it's not really much like that at all, though, is it?
I also note today that PB's elite team of armchair warriors, having given up for now on China invading Taiwan or the UK invading France, are, in the immortal words of Kenny Everett, in "let's bomb Russia" mode. And they want Germany to join in, regardless of the perilous history that has given rise to Germany's caution in respect of military adventurism. Hm.
Yes, I'd forgotten that he also said "let's kick Michael Foot's stick away". Thatcher thought that was hilarious.
That was of course the election where the SDP under Roy Jenkins almost overtook Foot's Labour, getting 25% to Labour's 27% and Thatcher's Tories got 42% and won 397 seats and a landslide majority of 144.
If it was ever going to be safe for a celebrity to mock a Labour leader it was with Foot in 1983, even more so than Corbyn in 2019
Progressive Alliance got 52% of the vote back then, 10 points more than the Tories.
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
Well, the "fluff" I wrote is formally the same argument I would make for the justice of our involvement in fighting the Nazis. I would be interested to know whether you think that was a good fight for us to be in, and, if so, how your justification for that differs from mine. Genuinely, I think it's incumbent on anyone who has an opinion about this one way or another to consider carefully on what grounds you would sanction military action.
i think the Nazis wanted to take over Europe not just a bit of it . They were clearly racists and extreme ones as well. The big difference though is that the nazis did not have nuclear weapons that could destroy the west within two days
Is it shocking? We know about Boris Johnson's comments on Muslims, and he has Zac Goldsmith, who ran an Islamophobic mayoral campaign, in his cabinet. You knew this about Boris before the election. We all did.
Labour was led by Corbyn and the lib dems tried to subvert Brexit, so of course the conservatives won a near landslide
Maybe labour and the lib dems need to look at themselves over GE19
Yeah, I guess when it comes down to it I was more comfortable with being offered a second referendum on Brexit than I was with hating Jews and Muslims.
Fine if you want to make a moral equivalence between more democracy and more racism, but I don't. Not today and not ever.
There's a big ol' gulf between policies you don't like and racism. I hope you can quietly recognise that.
I absolutely hate racism
Me too, but I also feel that tolerance is too precious a virtue to be wasted on jews, muslims, hindus and women.
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
If Russia invades Ukraine you will soon care very much
Unless Russia then also invades a NATO nation not enough for us to be involved.
As I have already pointed out Ukraine has a large military and reserves anyway to defend itself with
New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.
But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.
its like the middle class couple who buy a pristine house with pristine furniture and alienate their kids and friends by imposing too many rules on what they can and cant do to keep it pristine
it's not really much like that at all, though, is it?
And that in itself is not really a thing that happens, either.
Is it shocking? We know about Boris Johnson's comments on Muslims, and he has Zac Goldsmith, who ran an Islamophobic mayoral campaign, in his cabinet. You knew this about Boris before the election. We all did.
Labour was led by Corbyn and the lib dems tried to subvert Brexit, so of course the conservatives won a near landslide
Maybe labour and the lib dems need to look at themselves over GE19
Yeah, I guess when it comes down to it I was more comfortable with being offered a second referendum on Brexit than I was with hating Jews and Muslims.
Fine if you want to make a moral equivalence between more democracy and more racism, but I don't. Not today and not ever.
There's a big ol' gulf between policies you don't like and racism. I hope you can quietly recognise that.
I absolutely hate racism
Me too, but I also feel that tolerance is too precious a virtue to be wasted on jews, muslims, hindus and women.
and gays and christians and audi drivers and the welsh and people who shout "get in the hole" at golf tournaments and people who read the last page of a book first and
New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.
But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
Well, the "fluff" I wrote is formally the same argument I would make for the justice of our involvement in fighting the Nazis. I would be interested to know whether you think that was a good fight for us to be in, and, if so, how your justification for that differs from mine. Genuinely, I think it's incumbent on anyone who has an opinion about this one way or another to consider carefully on what grounds you would sanction military action.
i think the Nazis wanted to take over Europe not just a bit of it . They were clearly racists and extreme ones as well. The big difference though is that the nazis did not have nuclear weapons that could destroy the west within two days
Yes but so do we and the French have nuclear weapons.
I doubt either side would use them even if invaded unless the other side used them first
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
Well, the "fluff" I wrote is formally the same argument I would make for the justice of our involvement in fighting the Nazis. I would be interested to know whether you think that was a good fight for us to be in, and, if so, how your justification for that differs from mine. Genuinely, I think it's incumbent on anyone who has an opinion about this one way or another to consider carefully on what grounds you would sanction military action.
i think the Nazis wanted to take over Europe not just a bit of it . They were clearly racists and extreme ones as well. The big difference though is that the nazis did not have nuclear weapons that could destroy the west within two days
If Russia invades Ukraine there is nothing the UK can do about it - I am surprised some people on here think we can . Why would we want to anyway ? It is a old historical dispute in the far east of Europe that has nothing to do with us on its western extreme.
I sort of get the posturing by the US ,EU and even the UK government to some extent - sometimes bluffing can be effective although I doubt it in this case. I just fail to get why people on here who know Russia will definitely not be bluffed by them still want us to do anything should they invade.
Instead of nuclear disarmament, a bellicose Ukraine starts a massive military build up, complete with nasty dictator threatening all the neighbours.
Why interesting? Because the implication on the position that Ukraine is too weak to resist Russia, so should be carved up is.. that nuclear armed and bellicose is the way to go.
Lots of people out there listening and thinking.
That sound you can hear is spent nuclear reactor fuel rods dissolving in nitric acid....
Lewis Page made this point 20 years ago.
If you were in charge of Taiwan, would you be thinking - "Gee, relying on other countries for defence is sooooo nice. It makes us such nice, happy people. We should never have nuclear weapons. Never" ?
Ditto Japan.
Ditto South Korea.
And every day that passes, more Plutonium 240 becomes Uranium 236...... The future beckons and it is so very, very bright......
Positively incandescent.
For a brief moment, the heart of a large fusion bomb exceeds the temperature and pressures of even a supernova - for an instant it is the most intense thing in the universe since the Big Bang.
On planets circling other stars, the unique light from some of the big tests will be visible. Will alien eyes on unknown worlds see that light through their telescopes and realise the message?
That would be a gamma ray burster, wouldn’t it ?
And unless they’re already here, it would be quite some time after we’re gone before any alien eyes notice anything.
Ivy Mike was November 1, 1952
the light from that is 70 light years out....
AN602 was 30 October 1961
... 60 light years out.....
We have rung the bell..... Will anybody hear us?
No. A few megatons is nothing.
The Sun burns about 500m Megatons per second and is a dim star barely visible at 10 parsecs (abs mag 4.8)
New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.
But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
If Russia invades Ukraine you will soon care very much
How much did we care the last time they invaded, when they took Crimea, and the Donbas? Or when they took Abkazia, or Transnistra?
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
If Russia invades Ukraine you will soon care very much
Unless Russia then also invades a NATO nation not enough for us to be involved.
As I have already pointed out Ukraine has a large military and reserves anyway to defend itself with
Against Russia
They would be overrun as would Europe with millions of refugees
New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.
But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.
New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.
But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
If Russia invades Ukraine you will soon care very much
How much did we care the last time they invaded, when they took Crimea, and the Donbas? Or when they took Abkazia, or Transnistra?
The millions of displaced Ukraine citizens flooding into Europe will make everyone in Europe care
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
Well, the "fluff" I wrote is formally the same argument I would make for the justice of our involvement in fighting the Nazis. I would be interested to know whether you think that was a good fight for us to be in, and, if so, how your justification for that differs from mine. Genuinely, I think it's incumbent on anyone who has an opinion about this one way or another to consider carefully on what grounds you would sanction military action.
i think the Nazis wanted to take over Europe not just a bit of it . They were clearly racists and extreme ones as well. The big difference though is that the nazis did not have nuclear weapons that could destroy the west within two days
Yes but so do we and the French have nuclear weapons.
I doubt either side would use them even if invaded unless the other side used them first
I dont want any doubt when it comes to the end of the world.
Now that Mark Spencer, the chief whip, has identified himself as the whip in question, this means Nadhim Zahawi is calling for an investigation into his cabinet colleague.
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
Why then would anyone care when next time it’s us ?
well they wouldnt would they ? I mean even the US was not going to help us against the Nazis until they were themselves attacked. Fighting with big nuclear states on a abstract argument is not good enough
If Russia invades Ukraine there is nothing the UK can do about it - I am surprised some people on here think we can . Why would we want to anyway ? It is a old historical dispute in the far east of Europe that has nothing to do with us on its western extreme.
I sort of get the posturing by the US ,EU and even the UK government to some extent - sometimes bluffing can be effective although I doubt it in this case. I just fail to get why people on here who know Russia will definitely not be bluffed by them still want us to do anything should they invade.
Instead of nuclear disarmament, a bellicose Ukraine starts a massive military build up, complete with nasty dictator threatening all the neighbours.
Why interesting? Because the implication on the position that Ukraine is too weak to resist Russia, so should be carved up is.. that nuclear armed and bellicose is the way to go.
Lots of people out there listening and thinking.
That sound you can hear is spent nuclear reactor fuel rods dissolving in nitric acid....
Lewis Page made this point 20 years ago.
If you were in charge of Taiwan, would you be thinking - "Gee, relying on other countries for defence is sooooo nice. It makes us such nice, happy people. We should never have nuclear weapons. Never" ?
Ditto Japan.
Ditto South Korea.
And every day that passes, more Plutonium 240 becomes Uranium 236...... The future beckons and it is so very, very bright......
Positively incandescent.
For a brief moment, the heart of a large fusion bomb exceeds the temperature and pressures of even a supernova - for an instant it is the most intense thing in the universe since the Big Bang.
On planets circling other stars, the unique light from some of the big tests will be visible. Will alien eyes on unknown worlds see that light through their telescopes and realise the message?
That would be a gamma ray burster, wouldn’t it ?
And unless they’re already here, it would be quite some time after we’re gone before any alien eyes notice anything.
Ivy Mike was November 1, 1952
the light from that is 70 light years out....
AN602 was 30 October 1961
... 60 light years out.....
We have rung the bell..... Will anybody hear us?
No. A few megatons is nothing.
The Sun burns about 500m Megatons per second and is a dim star barely visible at 10 parsecs (abs mag 4.8)
The energy density is different - much, much higher than the sun. Vastly higher than the *centre* of the sun. For a brief moment, it rivals the temperatures and densities of the Big Bang itself.
What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.
I think they will fight, and fight hard, but outmatched, at least in the short term.
I don't think that the Russians have the capability to occupy more than few Oblasts though. Even East Ukraine is less Russian than it used to be, and West Ukraine has never been pro Russian, biting off a few oblasts is what they have form for.
It would be crazy to have British forces fighting Russians there. The risks of escalation would be huge, and we managed to avoid that even at the height of the Cold War. Sanctions and arms to Ukraine perhaps, but not troops. Apart from anything else Ukraine has troops.
That seems the most realistic war aim. The trouble is that it's a huge cost for such a paltry gain. Perhaps he thinks he can intimidate Zelensky or a successor to drop the pro Nato stuff. The trouble is that Putin has already taken a country divided between east and west and turned it into one that is facing solidly west. Further military action would only exacerbate that.
From Putin's point of view it is probably rational to invade this year or next year if he has decided to do so.
The way to stop him will be to make it an unbearably Phyrric victory. As to whether that can be done - I do not know.
Doing nothing will be to hand him the next country too.
Fair play to him for going public. I think it’s the decent thing to do.
However, I’m not convinced it’s a smart move. I think it’s more likely than not, Boris survives. And politically, even if he goes, I think his replacement is likely to be less favourable towards red wall seats when it comes to cutting the pie.
Sadly, I think Aaron will live to regret sending that letter.
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
Well, the "fluff" I wrote is formally the same argument I would make for the justice of our involvement in fighting the Nazis. I would be interested to know whether you think that was a good fight for us to be in, and, if so, how your justification for that differs from mine. Genuinely, I think it's incumbent on anyone who has an opinion about this one way or another to consider carefully on what grounds you would sanction military action.
i think the Nazis wanted to take over Europe not just a bit of it . They were clearly racists and extreme ones as well. The big difference though is that the nazis did not have nuclear weapons that could destroy the west within two days
Sadly, the people at the heart of the Russian state are racists and extremists too.
Also, Putin has a "Eurasian" strategy which deserves some in-depth reading if you want to grasp the threat Russia poses. This concept predates Putin's time as Russian leader but has accelerated under him, and in particular in the last decade or so.
Nuclear weapons change the strategic calculations, but frankly, if we really think that Russia would resort to using nuclear weapons in response to it being repelled outside its own borders then the world is already in a lot more trouble than many realise. And Putin hasn't shown any evidence of being suicidal.
Diplomats are sometimes sneered at. I don't envy our people in Moscow though. Dealing with what appears on the surface to be the entitled, self pitying whining of kleptocrats who've enriched themselves under Putin and nurse a ludicrous grievance against the western world where they nonetheless like to stash their money. It must try the patience of a saint not least having to continually show respect and not seem to be condescending towards them.
It would be far beyond me to keep calm. I'd probably try to choke someone within about an hour and have to be bayonetted by the Presidential Guard.
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
If Russia invades Ukraine you will soon care very much
How much did we care the last time they invaded, when they took Crimea, and the Donbas? Or when they took Abkazia, or Transnistra?
The millions of displaced Ukraine citizens flooding into Europe will make everyone in Europe care
So, are you really suggesting sending British fighting troops to fight Europe's most formidable military force? Not that we could deploy anything significant. Or perhaps bombs and cruise missiles onto Russian staging areas? Perhaps a little instant sunshine from Trident?
Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments
This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
You're both right, in my opinion, and there's the rub. Russia is a broken down country, pilfered and pillaged by her leaders. While her soldiers and tanks could maybe overrun Ukraine, they couldn't hope for decisive victory over Europe, not one that is prepared to fight... But for the fact that Russia can turn huge swathes of the continent into glass. It scares me because Farooq is right, this is bigger than Ukraine, but the risks are terrible to contemplate.
Fair play to him for going public. I think it’s the decent thing to do.
However, I’m not convinced it’s a smart move. I think it’s more likely than not, Boris survives. And politically, even if he goes, I think his replacement is likely to be less favourable towards red wall seats when it comes to cutting the pie.
Sadly, I think Aaron will live to regret sending that letter.
Fair play to him for going public. I think it’s the decent thing to do.
However, I’m not convinced it’s a smart move. I think it’s more likely than not, Boris survives. And politically, even if he goes, I think his replacement is likely to be less favourable towards red wall seats when it comes to cutting the pie.
Sadly, I think Aaron will live to regret sending that letter.
Comments
Maybe labour and the lib dems need to look at themselves over GE19
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jan/22/partygate-inquiry-given-access-to-log-of-staff-movements-in-and-out-of-building?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
They could open it up, light a match, thrown cautiously towards the pipeline, and then wait for the big bang at the other end? A truly cunning plan.
Starship Troopers is on Paramount Network (Freeview 32, Sky 150) at 10.50pm.
The actual fighting capability of both sides is unknown. It is far less for both Russia and Ukraine than the inflated numbers of young men with a rifle and a few weeks training.
Whereas the Conservatives continue to have BoJo in situ. And if being in the top team of an obviously terrible leader disqualifies you from future office, where does that leave Rishi?
The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.
Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
And unless they’re already here, it would be quite some time after we’re gone before any alien eyes notice anything.
"I have asked Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht to relieve me from my duties with immediate effect," Vice Admiral Kay-Achim Schoenbach said in a statement cited by the Reuters news agency. "The minister has accepted my request," he added.
The move was prompted by a talk that Schönbach gave during a visit to India. Speaking at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, the German vice-admiral said Putin "probably" deserved respect......"the Crimea Peninsula is gone: It will never come back — this is a fact."
https://www.dw.com/en/german-navy-chief-schönbach-resigns-over-comments-on-putin-crimea/a-60525709
Damian from Brighton @damian_from
Thanks to everyone who has been unfollowing
@Keir_Starmer
I am happy to report that he now has 1,157 fewer real followers than he had yesterday.
Let's keep unfollowing him and also reporting his fake followers as spam. Many hands make light work.
#UnfollowKeirStarmer
https://twitter.com/damian_from/status/1484649556306542597
Fine if you want to make a moral equivalence between more democracy and more racism, but I don't. Not today and not ever.
There's a big ol' gulf between policies you don't like and racism. I hope you can quietly recognise that.
A lot of people would do that the other way round.
the light from that is 70 light years out....
AN602 was 30 October 1961
... 60 light years out.....
We have rung the bell..... Will anybody hear us?
Waiting with bated breath for the next instalment of Johnson the Downfall.
A bit of editing, but still...
Chief whip Mark Spencer has allegedly lost so much authority his private nicknames for rebel MPs are becoming common knowledge
Anthony Mangnall, behind foreign aid rebellions, is “Anthony Wanknall”.
Tom Tugendhat, China hawk, is “Tom Tugentwat”
https://thetimes.co.uk/article/mp-points-finger-at-gavin-williamson-for-school-threat-dfg5kqwzf
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1485006181840138248?s=20
So a blanket denial & suggestion from govt that Nus Ghani is not telling the truth.
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1485003162671013889
We're in the present and in January 2022 there is only one party plumbing new depths of venality and ineptitude and it's the party with the parliamentary majority.
I would be interested to know whether you think that was a good fight for us to be in, and, if so, how your justification for that differs from mine. Genuinely, I think it's incumbent on anyone who has an opinion about this one way or another to consider carefully on what grounds you would sanction military action.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Etymology_and_orthography
New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.
But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10430013/Omicron-2022-Jacinda-Ardern-force-New-Zealand-household-Covid-contacts-isolate-24-DAYS.html
Note that many of the people here, who think that Boris Johnson is drunk buffoon etc etc seem to assume that Putin is a genius, playing 7D chess.
Hermann Kahn spoke of this problem - the assumption of the hyper-rational opponent. Indeed, one of his recommendations in the brilliantly titled chapter "The Problem of Reaching 1975*" was that decision makers at various levels needed to meet each other - socially, even, to get some understanding of each other.
Putin, according to many who have met him, is a Greater Russian Nationalist, but *thinks of himself* as a pragmatist.
The problem is that he is facing internal pressures and is not an absolute ruler.
He may judge that a few square feet of Ukraine will give him more face with the Greater Russian Nationalists in his coalition. Maybe enough to get him through the current problems. Maybe that a battle with the West** is the object of the exercise - Russia Embattled, Nobly! Stands! Alone!
*As in the problem trying to ensure that some humans were still alive in 1975, from the point of view from 1955
** A battle with anyone West of Russia, that is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsXKS8Nyu8Q
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election
i think the Nazis wanted to take over Europe not just a bit of it . They were clearly racists and extreme ones as well. The big difference though is that the nazis did not have nuclear weapons that could destroy the west within two days
As I have already pointed out Ukraine has a large military and reserves anyway to defend itself with
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/21/read-the-never-issued-trump-order-that-would-have-seized-voting-machines-527572
Cracking analogy otherwise.
I doubt either side would use them even if invaded unless the other side used them first
The Sun burns about 500m Megatons per second and is a dim star barely visible at 10 parsecs (abs mag 4.8)
I totally understand their initial strategy, but now with vaccines, what are they trying to achieve? They can't live like that forever more.
They would be overrun as would Europe with millions of refugees
The continual references to incest did nothing to enhance it
Bell was elected in 2019 and is key voice among Red Wall colleagues dismayed by PM over partygate
His letter is with Sir Graham Brady
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nusrat-ghani-i-was-sacked-as-a-minister-because-i-was-a-muslim-p38lmvlvg https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1485014035582095360/photo/1
Spencer denies Nusrat Ghani’s allegations. https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1484993351619338241
It creates a unique signature.
The way to stop him will be to make it an unbearably Phyrric victory. As to whether that can be done - I do not know.
Doing nothing will be to hand him the next country too.
Fair play to him for going public. I think it’s the decent thing to do.
However, I’m not convinced it’s a smart move. I think it’s more likely than not, Boris survives. And politically, even if he goes, I think his replacement is likely to be less favourable towards red wall seats when it comes to cutting the pie.
Sadly, I think Aaron will live to regret sending that letter.
Also, Putin has a "Eurasian" strategy which deserves some in-depth reading if you want to grasp the threat Russia poses. This concept predates Putin's time as Russian leader but has accelerated under him, and in particular in the last decade or so.
Nuclear weapons change the strategic calculations, but frankly, if we really think that Russia would resort to using nuclear weapons in response to it being repelled outside its own borders then the world is already in a lot more trouble than many realise. And Putin hasn't shown any evidence of being suicidal.
https://lettersofnote.com/2009/10/28/we-all-feel-like-that-now-and-then/
Or just sanctions and arms to Ukraine?