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Punters backing Sunak are ignoring that there isn’t a vacancy – politicalbetting.com

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  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
     
    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.

    Even just in terms of active personnel the Ukraine has 209,000 troops. making it the second largest army in Europe after Russia already and just ahead of France which has 203,000. The only Nato nation in Europe or Asia with more troops than Ukraine is Turkey with 355,200.

    Including reserves the Ukraine has 1,211,000.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel
    Ukraine. Not "the Ukraine".
    The Ukraine is perfectly good English. Cf The Argentine.
    Deprecated since 1991.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243
    Cyclefree said:

    The allegations being made by Nus Ghani are appalling. I really hope they are properly looked into. Bad enough having anti-Semitism in Labour. We certainly don't need anti-Muslim prejudice in the Tories.

    What is slightly heartening is the support she is getting from fellow Tory MPs such as William Wragg, Steve Baker and Nadim Zahawi.

    The problem is that her allegation is that is what she was told by a whip. We don’t know if that is the reason why she was sacked.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Sounds like Ms Gray is doing a better job than the Met would do, if they ever get around to looking into the kind of law breaking that got students £10k fines.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Heads-up for all PB armchair warriors:

    Starship Troopers is on Paramount Network (Freeview 32, Sky 150) at 10.50pm.

    My mother always told me that violence doesn't solve anything.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Germany faced a diplomatic incident on Saturday following comments made by Navy chief Kay-Achim Schönbach on Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Ukraine crisis. Schönbach stepped down from his position late on Saturday.

    "I have asked Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht to relieve me from my duties with immediate effect," Vice Admiral Kay-Achim Schoenbach said in a statement cited by the Reuters news agency. "The minister has accepted my request," he added.

    The move was prompted by a talk that Schönbach gave during a visit to India. Speaking at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, the German vice-admiral said Putin "probably" deserved respect......"the Crimea Peninsula is gone: It will never come back — this is a fact."


    https://www.dw.com/en/german-navy-chief-schönbach-resigns-over-comments-on-putin-crimea/a-60525709
  • Sounds like Ms Gray is doing a better job than the Met would do, if they ever get around to looking into the kind of law breaking that got students £10k fines.
    I was very pleased to read that article as anybody and everybody will have a time stamp on their movements and of course it will identify everyone attending
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Taking the fight to the Tories...



    Damian from Brighton @damian_from

    Thanks to everyone who has been unfollowing
    @Keir_Starmer

    I am happy to report that he now has 1,157 fewer real followers than he had yesterday.

    Let's keep unfollowing him and also reporting his fake followers as spam. Many hands make light work.

    #UnfollowKeirStarmer


    https://twitter.com/damian_from/status/1484649556306542597
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Cyclefree said:

    The allegations being made by Nus Ghani are appalling. I really hope they are properly looked into. Bad enough having anti-Semitism in Labour. We certainly don't need anti-Muslim prejudice in the Tories.

    What is slightly heartening is the support she is getting from fellow Tory MPs such as William Wragg, Steve Baker and Nadim Zahawi.

    The problem is that her allegation is that is what she was told by a whip. We don’t know if that is the reason why she was sacked.
    You mean, they sacked her for thoroughly legitimate reasons but dressed it up as an act of despicable and illegal hate crime?

    A lot of people would do that the other way round.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    If Russia invades Ukraine there is nothing the UK can do about it - I am surprised some people on here think we can . Why would we want to anyway ? It is a old historical dispute in the far east of Europe that has nothing to do with us on its western extreme.

    I sort of get the posturing by the US ,EU and even the UK government to some extent - sometimes bluffing can be effective although I doubt it in this case. I just fail to get why people on here who know Russia will definitely not be bluffed by them still want us to do anything should they invade.

    The UK signed a treaty, that's why.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
    Interesting thought experiment -

    Instead of nuclear disarmament, a bellicose Ukraine starts a massive military build up, complete with nasty dictator threatening all the neighbours.

    Why interesting? Because the implication on the position that Ukraine is too weak to resist Russia, so should be carved up is.. that nuclear armed and bellicose is the way to go.

    Lots of people out there listening and thinking.

    That sound you can hear is spent nuclear reactor fuel rods dissolving in nitric acid....
    Lewis Page made this point 20 years ago.
    If you were in charge of Taiwan, would you be thinking - "Gee, relying on other countries for defence is sooooo nice. It makes us such nice, happy people. We should never have nuclear weapons. Never" ?

    Ditto Japan.

    Ditto South Korea.

    And every day that passes, more Plutonium 240 becomes Uranium 236...... The future beckons and it is so very, very bright......
    Positively incandescent.
    For a brief moment, the heart of a large fusion bomb exceeds the temperature and pressures of even a supernova - for an instant it is the most intense thing in the universe since the Big Bang.

    On planets circling other stars, the unique light from some of the big tests will be visible. Will alien eyes on unknown worlds see that light through their telescopes and realise the message?
    That would be a gamma ray burster, wouldn’t it ?

    And unless they’re already here, it would be quite some time after we’re gone before any alien eyes notice anything.
    Ivy Mike was November 1, 1952

    the light from that is 70 light years out....

    AN602 was 30 October 1961

    ... 60 light years out.....

    We have rung the bell..... Will anybody hear us?
  • Farooq said:

    Is it shocking? We know about Boris Johnson's comments on Muslims, and he has Zac Goldsmith, who ran an Islamophobic mayoral campaign, in his cabinet. You knew this about Boris before the election. We all did.
    Labour was led by Corbyn and the lib dems tried to subvert Brexit, so of course the conservatives won a near landslide

    Maybe labour and the lib dems need to look at themselves over GE19
    Well, Labour have changed their leader, and cast Corbyn into the outer darkness.

    Whereas the Conservatives continue to have BoJo in situ. And if being in the top team of an obviously terrible leader disqualifies you from future office, where does that leave Rishi?
    You can apply that argument equally to Starmer
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Sounds like Ms Gray is doing a better job than the Met would do, if they ever get around to looking into the kind of law breaking that got students £10k fines.
    I was very pleased to read that article as anybody and everybody will have a time stamp on their movements and of course it will identify everyone attending
    I doubt it will include Johnson. He can't brush his hair never mind weld a digital entry card.
  • Sounds like Ms Gray is doing a better job than the Met would do, if they ever get around to looking into the kind of law breaking that got students £10k fines.
    I was very pleased to read that article as anybody and everybody will have a time stamp on their movements and of course it will identify everyone attending
    I doubt it will include Johnson. He can't brush his hair never mind weld a digital entry card.
    He is rapidly losing the need to be doing much brushing of hair.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    If Russia invades Ukraine there is nothing the UK can do about it - I am surprised some people on here think we can . Why would we want to anyway ? It is a old historical dispute in the far east of Europe that has nothing to do with us on its western extreme.

    I sort of get the posturing by the US ,EU and even the UK government to some extent - sometimes bluffing can be effective although I doubt it in this case. I just fail to get why people on here who know Russia will definitely not be bluffed by them still want us to do anything should they invade.

    The UK signed a treaty, that's why.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
    Interesting thought experiment -

    Instead of nuclear disarmament, a bellicose Ukraine starts a massive military build up, complete with nasty dictator threatening all the neighbours.

    Why interesting? Because the implication on the position that Ukraine is too weak to resist Russia, so should be carved up is.. that nuclear armed and bellicose is the way to go.

    Lots of people out there listening and thinking.

    That sound you can hear is spent nuclear reactor fuel rods dissolving in nitric acid....
    Lewis Page made this point 20 years ago.
    If you were in charge of Taiwan, would you be thinking - "Gee, relying on other countries for defence is sooooo nice. It makes us such nice, happy people. We should never have nuclear weapons. Never" ?

    Ditto Japan.

    Ditto South Korea.

    And every day that passes, more Plutonium 240 becomes Uranium 236...... The future beckons and it is so very, very bright......
    You have the nucleus of a good argument there.
    I don’t mean to be critical….
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Sounds like Ms Gray is doing a better job than the Met would do, if they ever get around to looking into the kind of law breaking that got students £10k fines.
    I was very pleased to read that article as anybody and everybody will have a time stamp on their movements and of course it will identify everyone attending
    Certainly sounds like someone is applying brains to the matter - between swiping through security, logins to computers etc you can probably build a pretty detailed timeline of who was where.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    IshmaelZ said:

    Posting, pretty drunk, from a bouncing Newcastle tonight

    Responding, slightly mellow, from a very placid West Devon
    All a bit squiffy here in the marshlands of the Midlands.

    Waiting with bated breath for the next instalment of Johnson the Downfall.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    edited January 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    Gene Roddenberry was a huge fan of C.S. Forrester books, that's why.

    Which might explain Star Trek, but Star Wars is also naval
    Star Wars tried to rip off Star Trek.
    Not the dogfights between X-Wings and TIE Fighters, they were inspired by WW2 aerial combat.
    And the final bombing run on the death star was inspired by the attack along the fjord in 633 Squadron.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OZq-tlJTrU

    A bit of editing, but still...
  • Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Is it shocking? We know about Boris Johnson's comments on Muslims, and he has Zac Goldsmith, who ran an Islamophobic mayoral campaign, in his cabinet. You knew this about Boris before the election. We all did.
    Labour was led by Corbyn and the lib dems tried to subvert Brexit, so of course the conservatives won a near landslide

    Maybe labour and the lib dems need to look at themselves over GE19
    Yeah, I guess when it comes down to it I was more comfortable with being offered a second referendum on Brexit than I was with hating Jews and Muslims.

    Fine if you want to make a moral equivalence between more democracy and more racism, but I don't. Not today and not ever.

    There's a big ol' gulf between policies you don't like and racism. I hope you can quietly recognise that.
    I absolutely hate racism
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Farooq said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.

    Even just in terms of active personnel the Ukraine has 209,000 troops. making it the second largest army in Europe after Russia already and just ahead of France which has 203,000. The only Nato nation in Europe or Asia with more troops than Ukraine is Turkey with 355,200.

    Including reserves the Ukraine has 1,211,000.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel
    Ukraine. Not "the Ukraine".
    The Ukraine is perfectly good English. Cf The Argentine.
    Ukrainians tend to prefer "Ukraine", FYI. I have avoided making the "correction" myself when people have been using "The", because it's not that important, but if you prefer to get things spot on..
    The reason Ukrainians don't like it is, AIUI, that it defines them relative to Russia ("the borderland"). So in the current context it's probably worth getting it right.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited January 2022
    Looks like the Lower 6th are running things.....

    Chief whip Mark Spencer has allegedly lost so much authority his private nicknames for rebel MPs are becoming common knowledge

    Anthony Mangnall, behind foreign aid rebellions, is “Anthony Wanknall”.

    Tom Tugendhat, China hawk, is “Tom Tugentwat”

    https://thetimes.co.uk/article/mp-points-finger-at-gavin-williamson-for-school-threat-dfg5kqwzf


    https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1485006181840138248?s=20
  • Sounds like Ms Gray is doing a better job than the Met would do, if they ever get around to looking into the kind of law breaking that got students £10k fines.
    I was very pleased to read that article as anybody and everybody will have a time stamp on their movements and of course it will identify everyone attending
    I doubt it will include Johnson. He can't brush his hair never mind weld a digital entry card.
    I expect it does to be honest but of course he could be in his own accommodation
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    UPDATE - another message through from the person I asked about what was ‘categorically untrue’ who now says it is also “untrue” the comments were said to her.

    So a blanket denial & suggestion from govt that Nus Ghani is not telling the truth.


    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1485003162671013889
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I also note today that PB's elite team of armchair warriors, having given up for now on China invading Taiwan or the UK invading France, are, in the immortal words of Kenny Everett, in "let's bomb Russia" mode. And they want Germany to join in, regardless of the perilous history that has given rise to Germany's caution in respect of military adventurism. Hm.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-g1exgkHsU
    Yes, I'd forgotten that he also said "let's kick Michael Foot's stick away". Thatcher thought that was hilarious.
    That was of course the election where the SDP under Roy Jenkins almost overtook Foot's Labour, getting 25% to Labour's 27% and Thatcher's Tories got 42% and won 397 seats and a landslide majority of 144.

    If it was ever going to be safe for a celebrity to mock a Labour leader it was with Foot in 1983, even more so than Corbyn in 2019
    Progressive Alliance got 52% of the vote back then, 10 points more than the Tories.
    Thatcher was preferred as PM by 48% of voters in a May 1983 Mori, poll more than Steel on 22%, Foot on 16% and Jenkins on 7% combined.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/most-capable-prime-minister-trends

    At least half of SDP voters would also have voted for the Tories over Foot's Labour on a forced choice
    Moreover, in the 2019 Indian election, the BJP only got 37% of the popular vote!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Heads-up for all PB armchair warriors:

    Starship Troopers is on Paramount Network (Freeview 32, Sky 150) at 10.50pm.

    "MI do the dying, Fleet just do the flying"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited January 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Heads-up for all PB armchair warriors:

    Starship Troopers is on Paramount Network (Freeview 32, Sky 150) at 10.50pm.

    My mother always told me that violence doesn't solve anything.
    There are no dangerous weapons; there are only dangerous men.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    Sounds like Ms Gray is doing a better job than the Met would do, if they ever get around to looking into the kind of law breaking that got students £10k fines.
    I was very pleased to read that article as anybody and everybody will have a time stamp on their movements and of course it will identify everyone attending
    I doubt it will include Johnson. He can't brush his hair never mind weld a digital entry card.
    This gives me the idea for the patent pending Digital Entry Comb-Card
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    Diplomats are sometimes sneered at. I don't envy our people in Moscow though. Dealing with what appears on the surface to be the entitled, self pitying whining of kleptocrats who've enriched themselves under Putin and nurse a ludicrous grievance against the western world where they nonetheless like to stash their money. It must try the patience of a saint not least having to continually show respect and not seem to be condescending towards them.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    If Russia invades Ukraine there is nothing the UK can do about it - I am surprised some people on here think we can . Why would we want to anyway ? It is a old historical dispute in the far east of Europe that has nothing to do with us on its western extreme.

    I sort of get the posturing by the US ,EU and even the UK government to some extent - sometimes bluffing can be effective although I doubt it in this case. I just fail to get why people on here who know Russia will definitely not be bluffed by them still want us to do anything should they invade.

    The UK signed a treaty, that's why.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
    Interesting thought experiment -

    Instead of nuclear disarmament, a bellicose Ukraine starts a massive military build up, complete with nasty dictator threatening all the neighbours.

    Why interesting? Because the implication on the position that Ukraine is too weak to resist Russia, so should be carved up is.. that nuclear armed and bellicose is the way to go.

    Lots of people out there listening and thinking.

    That sound you can hear is spent nuclear reactor fuel rods dissolving in nitric acid....
    Lewis Page made this point 20 years ago.
    If you were in charge of Taiwan, would you be thinking - "Gee, relying on other countries for defence is sooooo nice. It makes us such nice, happy people. We should never have nuclear weapons. Never" ?

    Ditto Japan.

    Ditto South Korea.

    And every day that passes, more Plutonium 240 becomes Uranium 236...... The future beckons and it is so very, very bright......
    Positively incandescent.
    For a brief moment, the heart of a large fusion bomb exceeds the temperature and pressures of even a supernova - for an instant it is the most intense thing in the universe since the Big Bang.

    On planets circling other stars, the unique light from some of the big tests will be visible. Will alien eyes on unknown worlds see that light through their telescopes and realise the message?
    That would be a gamma ray burster, wouldn’t it ?

    And unless they’re already here, it would be quite some time after we’re gone before any alien eyes notice anything.
    Ivy Mike was November 1, 1952

    the light from that is 70 light years out....

    AN602 was 30 October 1961

    ... 60 light years out.....

    We have rung the bell..... Will anybody hear us?
    QTWTAIN
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.

    Even just in terms of active personnel the Ukraine has 209,000 troops. making it the second largest army in Europe after Russia already and just ahead of France which has 203,000. The only Nato nation in Europe or Asia with more troops than Ukraine is Turkey with 355,200.

    Including reserves the Ukraine has 1,211,000.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel
    Ukraine. Not "the Ukraine".
    The Ukraine is perfectly good English. Cf The Argentine.
    You've been watching The World at War too often, I fear!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Looks like the Lower 6th are running things.....

    Chief whip Mark Spencer has allegedly lost so much authority his private nicknames for rebel MPs are becoming common knowledge

    Anthony Mangnall, behind foreign aid rebellions, is “Anthony Wanknall”.

    Tom Tugendhat, China hawk, is “Tom Tugentwat”

    https://thetimes.co.uk/article/mp-points-finger-at-gavin-williamson-for-school-threat-dfg5kqwzf


    https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1485006181840138248?s=20

    I know it’s a bit rich coming from me/PB, but did these people never grow up ?
  • The official Ukrainian position is that the usage of "'the Ukraine' is incorrect both grammatically and politically.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Etymology_and_orthography
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    So you thought "Zero COVID" was a good idea.....

    New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.

    But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10430013/Omicron-2022-Jacinda-Ardern-force-New-Zealand-household-Covid-contacts-isolate-24-DAYS.html
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Foxy said:



    What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.

    I think they will fight, and fight hard, but outmatched, at least in the short term.

    I don't think that the Russians have the capability to occupy more than few Oblasts though. Even East Ukraine is less Russian than it used to be, and West Ukraine has never been pro Russian, biting off a few oblasts is what they have form for.

    It would be crazy to have British forces fighting Russians there. The risks of escalation would be huge, and we managed to avoid that even at the height of the Cold War. Sanctions and arms to Ukraine perhaps, but not troops. Apart from anything else Ukraine has troops.
    That seems the most realistic war aim. The trouble is that it's a huge cost for such a paltry gain. Perhaps he thinks he can intimidate Zelensky or a successor to drop the pro Nato stuff. The trouble is that Putin has already taken a country divided between east and west and turned it into one that is facing solidly west. Further military action would only exacerbate that.
    There is a problem here.

    Note that many of the people here, who think that Boris Johnson is drunk buffoon etc etc seem to assume that Putin is a genius, playing 7D chess.

    Hermann Kahn spoke of this problem - the assumption of the hyper-rational opponent. Indeed, one of his recommendations in the brilliantly titled chapter "The Problem of Reaching 1975*" was that decision makers at various levels needed to meet each other - socially, even, to get some understanding of each other.

    Putin, according to many who have met him, is a Greater Russian Nationalist, but *thinks of himself* as a pragmatist.

    The problem is that he is facing internal pressures and is not an absolute ruler.

    He may judge that a few square feet of Ukraine will give him more face with the Greater Russian Nationalists in his coalition. Maybe enough to get him through the current problems. Maybe that a battle with the West** is the object of the exercise - Russia Embattled, Nobly! Stands! Alone!

    *As in the problem trying to ensure that some humans were still alive in 1975, from the point of view from 1955
    ** A battle with anyone West of Russia, that is.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
    Why then would anyone care when next time it’s us ?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    HYUFD said:

    What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.

    Even just in terms of active personnel the Ukraine has 209,000 troops. making it the second largest army in Europe after Russia already and just ahead of France which has 203,000. The only Nato nation in Europe or Asia with more troops than Ukraine is Turkey with 355,200.

    Including reserves the Ukraine has 1,211,000.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel
    Ukraine. Not "the Ukraine".
    The Ukraine is perfectly good English. Cf The Argentine.
    You've been watching The World at War too often, I fear!
    I don't call Munich, Munchen. The last attempt to invade and subjugate this country and impose forrin speak on us ended badly.
  • Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
    If Russia invades Ukraine you will soon care very much
  • So you thought "Zero COVID" was a good idea.....

    New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.

    But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10430013/Omicron-2022-Jacinda-Ardern-force-New-Zealand-household-Covid-contacts-isolate-24-DAYS.html

    its like the middle class couple who buy a pristine house with pristine furniture and alienate their kids and friends by imposing too many rules on what they can and cant do to keep it pristine
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    So you thought "Zero COVID" was a good idea.....

    New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.

    But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10430013/Omicron-2022-Jacinda-Ardern-force-New-Zealand-household-Covid-contacts-isolate-24-DAYS.html

    24 days? Good grief.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293

    Taking the fight to the Tories...



    Damian from Brighton @damian_from

    Thanks to everyone who has been unfollowing
    @Keir_Starmer

    I am happy to report that he now has 1,157 fewer real followers than he had yesterday.

    Let's keep unfollowing him and also reporting his fake followers as spam. Many hands make light work.

    #UnfollowKeirStarmer


    https://twitter.com/damian_from/status/1484649556306542597

    I'm sure this cunning plan to oust him will work...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsXKS8Nyu8Q
  • stodge said:


    Labour was led by Corbyn and the lib dems tried to subvert Brexit, so of course the conservatives won a near landslide

    Maybe labour and the lib dems need to look at themselves over GE19

    With respect, December 2019 is ancient history and the opposition parties duly paid the price for their stupidity/incompetence/double dealing (delete as appropriate).

    We're in the present and in January 2022 there is only one party plumbing new depths of venality and ineptitude and it's the party with the parliamentary majority.
    Yes but the reference was to voting in GE19
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I also note today that PB's elite team of armchair warriors, having given up for now on China invading Taiwan or the UK invading France, are, in the immortal words of Kenny Everett, in "let's bomb Russia" mode. And they want Germany to join in, regardless of the perilous history that has given rise to Germany's caution in respect of military adventurism. Hm.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-g1exgkHsU
    Yes, I'd forgotten that he also said "let's kick Michael Foot's stick away". Thatcher thought that was hilarious.
    That was of course the election where the SDP under Roy Jenkins almost overtook Foot's Labour, getting 25% to Labour's 27% and Thatcher's Tories got 42% and won 397 seats and a landslide majority of 144.

    If it was ever going to be safe for a celebrity to mock a Labour leader it was with Foot in 1983, even more so than Corbyn in 2019
    Progressive Alliance got 52% of the vote back then, 10 points more than the Tories.
    Thatcher was preferred as PM by 48% of voters in a May 1983 Mori, poll more than Steel on 22%, Foot on 16% and Jenkins on 7% combined.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/most-capable-prime-minister-trends

    At least half of SDP voters would also have voted for the Tories over Foot's Labour on a forced choice
    Moreover, in the 2019 Indian election, the BJP only got 37% of the popular vote!
    In the 2019 general election the BJP won 303 seats to just 52 for Congress (who got 19%) and a majority of 62

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
    Well, the "fluff" I wrote is formally the same argument I would make for the justice of our involvement in fighting the Nazis.
    I would be interested to know whether you think that was a good fight for us to be in, and, if so, how your justification for that differs from mine. Genuinely, I think it's incumbent on anyone who has an opinion about this one way or another to consider carefully on what grounds you would sanction military action.

    i think the Nazis wanted to take over Europe not just a bit of it . They were clearly racists and extreme ones as well. The big difference though is that the nazis did not have nuclear weapons that could destroy the west within two days
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Is it shocking? We know about Boris Johnson's comments on Muslims, and he has Zac Goldsmith, who ran an Islamophobic mayoral campaign, in his cabinet. You knew this about Boris before the election. We all did.
    Labour was led by Corbyn and the lib dems tried to subvert Brexit, so of course the conservatives won a near landslide

    Maybe labour and the lib dems need to look at themselves over GE19
    Yeah, I guess when it comes down to it I was more comfortable with being offered a second referendum on Brexit than I was with hating Jews and Muslims.

    Fine if you want to make a moral equivalence between more democracy and more racism, but I don't. Not today and not ever.

    There's a big ol' gulf between policies you don't like and racism. I hope you can quietly recognise that.
    I absolutely hate racism
    Me too, but I also feel that tolerance is too precious a virtue to be wasted on jews, muslims, hindus and women.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
    If Russia invades Ukraine you will soon care very much
    Unless Russia then also invades a NATO nation not enough for us to be involved.

    As I have already pointed out Ukraine has a large military and reserves anyway to defend itself with
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Farooq said:

    So you thought "Zero COVID" was a good idea.....

    New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.

    But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10430013/Omicron-2022-Jacinda-Ardern-force-New-Zealand-household-Covid-contacts-isolate-24-DAYS.html

    its like the middle class couple who buy a pristine house with pristine furniture and alienate their kids and friends by imposing too many rules on what they can and cant do to keep it pristine
    it's not really much like that at all, though, is it?
    And that in itself is not really a thing that happens, either.

    Cracking analogy otherwise.
  • So you thought "Zero COVID" was a good idea.....

    New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.

    But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10430013/Omicron-2022-Jacinda-Ardern-force-New-Zealand-household-Covid-contacts-isolate-24-DAYS.html

    24 days? Good grief.
    Don't give Drakeford ideas
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
    Well, the "fluff" I wrote is formally the same argument I would make for the justice of our involvement in fighting the Nazis.
    I would be interested to know whether you think that was a good fight for us to be in, and, if so, how your justification for that differs from mine. Genuinely, I think it's incumbent on anyone who has an opinion about this one way or another to consider carefully on what grounds you would sanction military action.

    i think the Nazis wanted to take over Europe not just a bit of it . They were clearly racists and extreme ones as well. The big difference though is that the nazis did not have nuclear weapons that could destroy the west within two days
    Yes but so do we and the French have nuclear weapons.

    I doubt either side would use them even if invaded unless the other side used them first
  • Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
    Well, the "fluff" I wrote is formally the same argument I would make for the justice of our involvement in fighting the Nazis.
    I would be interested to know whether you think that was a good fight for us to be in, and, if so, how your justification for that differs from mine. Genuinely, I think it's incumbent on anyone who has an opinion about this one way or another to consider carefully on what grounds you would sanction military action.

    i think the Nazis wanted to take over Europe not just a bit of it . They were clearly racists and extreme ones as well. The big difference though is that the nazis did not have nuclear weapons that could destroy the west within two days
    And that is why we have them as well
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    If Russia invades Ukraine there is nothing the UK can do about it - I am surprised some people on here think we can . Why would we want to anyway ? It is a old historical dispute in the far east of Europe that has nothing to do with us on its western extreme.

    I sort of get the posturing by the US ,EU and even the UK government to some extent - sometimes bluffing can be effective although I doubt it in this case. I just fail to get why people on here who know Russia will definitely not be bluffed by them still want us to do anything should they invade.

    The UK signed a treaty, that's why.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
    Interesting thought experiment -

    Instead of nuclear disarmament, a bellicose Ukraine starts a massive military build up, complete with nasty dictator threatening all the neighbours.

    Why interesting? Because the implication on the position that Ukraine is too weak to resist Russia, so should be carved up is.. that nuclear armed and bellicose is the way to go.

    Lots of people out there listening and thinking.

    That sound you can hear is spent nuclear reactor fuel rods dissolving in nitric acid....
    Lewis Page made this point 20 years ago.
    If you were in charge of Taiwan, would you be thinking - "Gee, relying on other countries for defence is sooooo nice. It makes us such nice, happy people. We should never have nuclear weapons. Never" ?

    Ditto Japan.

    Ditto South Korea.

    And every day that passes, more Plutonium 240 becomes Uranium 236...... The future beckons and it is so very, very bright......
    Positively incandescent.
    For a brief moment, the heart of a large fusion bomb exceeds the temperature and pressures of even a supernova - for an instant it is the most intense thing in the universe since the Big Bang.

    On planets circling other stars, the unique light from some of the big tests will be visible. Will alien eyes on unknown worlds see that light through their telescopes and realise the message?
    That would be a gamma ray burster, wouldn’t it ?

    And unless they’re already here, it would be quite some time after we’re gone before any alien eyes notice anything.
    Ivy Mike was November 1, 1952

    the light from that is 70 light years out....

    AN602 was 30 October 1961

    ... 60 light years out.....

    We have rung the bell..... Will anybody hear us?
    No. A few megatons is nothing.

    The Sun burns about 500m Megatons per second and is a dim star barely visible at 10 parsecs (abs mag 4.8)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The official Ukrainian position is that the usage of "'the Ukraine' is incorrect both grammatically and politically.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Etymology_and_orthography

    So invade us, or kiss my the arse.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited January 2022

    So you thought "Zero COVID" was a good idea.....

    New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.

    But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10430013/Omicron-2022-Jacinda-Ardern-force-New-Zealand-household-Covid-contacts-isolate-24-DAYS.html

    I presume their scientific advisor is Christina Pagel...

    I totally understand their initial strategy, but now with vaccines, what are they trying to achieve? They can't live like that forever more.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
    If Russia invades Ukraine you will soon care very much
    How much did we care the last time they invaded, when they took Crimea, and the Donbas? Or when they took Abkazia, or Transnistra?

  • HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
    If Russia invades Ukraine you will soon care very much
    Unless Russia then also invades a NATO nation not enough for us to be involved.

    As I have already pointed out Ukraine has a large military and reserves anyway to defend itself with
    Against Russia

    They would be overrun as would Europe with millions of refugees
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    So you thought "Zero COVID" was a good idea.....

    New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.

    But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10430013/Omicron-2022-Jacinda-Ardern-force-New-Zealand-household-Covid-contacts-isolate-24-DAYS.html

    I presume their scientific advisor is Christina Pagel...
    24 days would be too short for her.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    So you thought "Zero COVID" was a good idea.....

    New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.

    But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10430013/Omicron-2022-Jacinda-Ardern-force-New-Zealand-household-Covid-contacts-isolate-24-DAYS.html

    24 days? Good grief.
    Don't give Drakeford ideas
    Might as well double it, just be on the safe side.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Foxy said:

    Heads-up for all PB armchair warriors:

    Starship Troopers is on Paramount Network (Freeview 32, Sky 150) at 10.50pm.

    "MI do the dying, Fleet just do the flying"
    Heinlein's writing seemed to have two modes: utter trash or inspired genuis.

    The continual references to incest did nothing to enhance it
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    SUNDAY TIMES: Sacked as a minister ‘because I was a Muslim’ #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1485013854413332480/photo/1
  • Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
    If Russia invades Ukraine you will soon care very much
    How much did we care the last time they invaded, when they took Crimea, and the Donbas? Or when they took Abkazia, or Transnistra?

    The millions of displaced Ukraine citizens flooding into Europe will make everyone in Europe care
  • HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
    Well, the "fluff" I wrote is formally the same argument I would make for the justice of our involvement in fighting the Nazis.
    I would be interested to know whether you think that was a good fight for us to be in, and, if so, how your justification for that differs from mine. Genuinely, I think it's incumbent on anyone who has an opinion about this one way or another to consider carefully on what grounds you would sanction military action.

    i think the Nazis wanted to take over Europe not just a bit of it . They were clearly racists and extreme ones as well. The big difference though is that the nazis did not have nuclear weapons that could destroy the west within two days
    Yes but so do we and the French have nuclear weapons.

    I doubt either side would use them even if invaded unless the other side used them first
    I dont want any doubt when it comes to the end of the world.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Foxy said:

    Heads-up for all PB armchair warriors:

    Starship Troopers is on Paramount Network (Freeview 32, Sky 150) at 10.50pm.

    "MI do the dying, Fleet just do the flying"
    Heinlein's writing seemed to have two modes: utter trash or inspired genuis.

    The continual references to incest did nothing to enhance it
    Yes, but Verhoevan didn't exactly stick to the book. Just made one of the most morally disturbing Sci Fi films. A real hymn to Facism and genocide.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Now that Mark Spencer, the chief whip, has identified himself as the whip in question, this means Nadhim Zahawi is calling for an investigation into his cabinet colleague.

    Spencer denies Nusrat Ghani’s allegations.
    https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1484993351619338241
  • Nigelb said:

    Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
    Why then would anyone care when next time it’s us ?
    well they wouldnt would they ? I mean even the US was not going to help us against the Nazis until they were themselves attacked. Fighting with big nuclear states on a abstract argument is not good enough
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    If Russia invades Ukraine there is nothing the UK can do about it - I am surprised some people on here think we can . Why would we want to anyway ? It is a old historical dispute in the far east of Europe that has nothing to do with us on its western extreme.

    I sort of get the posturing by the US ,EU and even the UK government to some extent - sometimes bluffing can be effective although I doubt it in this case. I just fail to get why people on here who know Russia will definitely not be bluffed by them still want us to do anything should they invade.

    The UK signed a treaty, that's why.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
    Interesting thought experiment -

    Instead of nuclear disarmament, a bellicose Ukraine starts a massive military build up, complete with nasty dictator threatening all the neighbours.

    Why interesting? Because the implication on the position that Ukraine is too weak to resist Russia, so should be carved up is.. that nuclear armed and bellicose is the way to go.

    Lots of people out there listening and thinking.

    That sound you can hear is spent nuclear reactor fuel rods dissolving in nitric acid....
    Lewis Page made this point 20 years ago.
    If you were in charge of Taiwan, would you be thinking - "Gee, relying on other countries for defence is sooooo nice. It makes us such nice, happy people. We should never have nuclear weapons. Never" ?

    Ditto Japan.

    Ditto South Korea.

    And every day that passes, more Plutonium 240 becomes Uranium 236...... The future beckons and it is so very, very bright......
    Positively incandescent.
    For a brief moment, the heart of a large fusion bomb exceeds the temperature and pressures of even a supernova - for an instant it is the most intense thing in the universe since the Big Bang.

    On planets circling other stars, the unique light from some of the big tests will be visible. Will alien eyes on unknown worlds see that light through their telescopes and realise the message?
    That would be a gamma ray burster, wouldn’t it ?

    And unless they’re already here, it would be quite some time after we’re gone before any alien eyes notice anything.
    Ivy Mike was November 1, 1952

    the light from that is 70 light years out....

    AN602 was 30 October 1961

    ... 60 light years out.....

    We have rung the bell..... Will anybody hear us?
    No. A few megatons is nothing.

    The Sun burns about 500m Megatons per second and is a dim star barely visible at 10 parsecs (abs mag 4.8)
    The energy density is different - much, much higher than the sun. Vastly higher than the *centre* of the sun. For a brief moment, it rivals the temperatures and densities of the Big Bang itself.

    It creates a unique signature.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Mark Spencer has now deleted tweets about Nus Ghani 👇 https://twitter.com/deletedbyMPs/status/1485015045008498694
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Heads-up for all PB armchair warriors:

    Starship Troopers is on Paramount Network (Freeview 32, Sky 150) at 10.50pm.

    "MI do the dying, Fleet just do the flying"
    Heinlein's writing seemed to have two modes: utter trash or inspired genuis.

    The continual references to incest did nothing to enhance it
    Yes, but Verhoevan didn't exactly stick to the book. Just made one of the most morally disturbing Sci Fi films. A real hymn to Facism and genocide.
    Satire wasn’t it?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148

    Foxy said:



    What are the general assessments of Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia? Are we expecting proper dig in and make them pay for every foot of territory, plucky but ultimately outmatched, Afghan-army-melts-away style, what? I've no idea.

    I think they will fight, and fight hard, but outmatched, at least in the short term.

    I don't think that the Russians have the capability to occupy more than few Oblasts though. Even East Ukraine is less Russian than it used to be, and West Ukraine has never been pro Russian, biting off a few oblasts is what they have form for.

    It would be crazy to have British forces fighting Russians there. The risks of escalation would be huge, and we managed to avoid that even at the height of the Cold War. Sanctions and arms to Ukraine perhaps, but not troops. Apart from anything else Ukraine has troops.
    That seems the most realistic war aim. The trouble is that it's a huge cost for such a paltry gain. Perhaps he thinks he can intimidate Zelensky or a successor to drop the pro Nato stuff. The trouble is that Putin has already taken a country divided between east and west and turned it into one that is facing solidly west. Further military action would only exacerbate that.
    From Putin's point of view it is probably rational to invade this year or next year if he has decided to do so.

    The way to stop him will be to make it an unbearably Phyrric victory. As to whether that can be done - I do not know.

    Doing nothing will be to hand him the next country too.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW🚨Aaron Bell, the Conservative MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, has submitted a letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson

    Bell was elected in 2019 and is key voice among Red Wall colleagues dismayed by PM over partygate

    His letter is with Sir Graham Brady
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nusrat-ghani-i-was-sacked-as-a-minister-because-i-was-a-muslim-p38lmvlvg https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1485014035582095360/photo/1

    Bold move from @Tissue_Price

    Fair play to him for going public. I think it’s the decent thing to do.

    However, I’m not convinced it’s a smart move. I think it’s more likely than not, Boris survives. And politically, even if he goes, I think his replacement is likely to be less favourable towards red wall seats when it comes to cutting the pie.

    Sadly, I think Aaron will live to regret sending that letter.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Farooq said:

    Diplomats are sometimes sneered at. I don't envy our people in Moscow though. Dealing with what appears on the surface to be the entitled, self pitying whining of kleptocrats who've enriched themselves under Putin and nurse a ludicrous grievance against the western world where they nonetheless like to stash their money. It must try the patience of a saint not least having to continually show respect and not seem to be condescending towards them.

    It would be far beyond me to keep calm. I'd probably try to choke someone within about an hour and have to be bayonetted by the Presidential Guard.
    Talking of Moscow and diplomats....

    https://lettersofnote.com/2009/10/28/we-all-feel-like-that-now-and-then/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
    If Russia invades Ukraine you will soon care very much
    How much did we care the last time they invaded, when they took Crimea, and the Donbas? Or when they took Abkazia, or Transnistra?

    The millions of displaced Ukraine citizens flooding into Europe will make everyone in Europe care
    So, are you really suggesting sending British fighting troops to fight Europe's most formidable military force? Not that we could deploy anything significant. Or perhaps bombs and cruise missiles onto Russian staging areas? Perhaps a little instant sunshine from Trident?

    Or just sanctions and arms to Ukraine?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    ping said:

    Sadly, I think Aaron will live to regret sending that letter.

    Badge of honour.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 882

    Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
    You're both right, in my opinion, and there's the rub. Russia is a broken down country, pilfered and pillaged by her leaders. While her soldiers and tanks could maybe overrun Ukraine, they couldn't hope for decisive victory over Europe, not one that is prepared to fight... But for the fact that Russia can turn huge swathes of the continent into glass. It scares me because Farooq is right, this is bigger than Ukraine, but the risks are terrible to contemplate.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Heads-up for all PB armchair warriors:

    Starship Troopers is on Paramount Network (Freeview 32, Sky 150) at 10.50pm.

    "MI do the dying, Fleet just do the flying"
    Heinlein's writing seemed to have two modes: utter trash or inspired genuis.

    The continual references to incest did nothing to enhance it
    Yes, but Verhoevan didn't exactly stick to the book. Just made one of the most morally disturbing Sci Fi films. A real hymn to Facism and genocide.
    Satire wasn’t it?
    The film yes. The book, no.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW🚨Aaron Bell, the Conservative MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, has submitted a letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson

    Bell was elected in 2019 and is key voice among Red Wall colleagues dismayed by PM over partygate

    His letter is with Sir Graham Brady
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nusrat-ghani-i-was-sacked-as-a-minister-because-i-was-a-muslim-p38lmvlvg https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1485014035582095360/photo/1

    Bold move from @Tissue_Price

    Fair play to him for going public. I think it’s the decent thing to do.

    However, I’m not convinced it’s a smart move. I think it’s more likely than not, Boris survives. And politically, even if he goes, I think his replacement is likely to be less favourable towards red wall seats when it comes to cutting the pie.

    Sadly, I think Aaron will live to regret sending that letter.
    You are wrong. Boris is toast.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW🚨Aaron Bell, the Conservative MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, has submitted a letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson

    Bell was elected in 2019 and is key voice among Red Wall colleagues dismayed by PM over partygate

    His letter is with Sir Graham Brady
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nusrat-ghani-i-was-sacked-as-a-minister-because-i-was-a-muslim-p38lmvlvg https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1485014035582095360/photo/1

    A good bloke. A cut and a half above his sleazy colleagues
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW🚨Aaron Bell, the Conservative MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, has submitted a letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson

    Bell was elected in 2019 and is key voice among Red Wall colleagues dismayed by PM over partygate

    His letter is with Sir Graham Brady
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nusrat-ghani-i-was-sacked-as-a-minister-because-i-was-a-muslim-p38lmvlvg https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1485014035582095360/photo/1

    Bold move from @Tissue_Price

    Fair play to him for going public. I think it’s the decent thing to do.

    However, I’m not convinced it’s a smart move. I think it’s more likely than not, Boris survives. And politically, even if he goes, I think his replacement is likely to be less favourable towards red wall seats when it comes to cutting the pie.

    Sadly, I think Aaron will live to regret sending that letter.
    Perhaps he fancies being a bookie again.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788

    So you thought "Zero COVID" was a good idea.....

    New Zealand will make household contacts of Covid cases isolate for 24 days under harsh new rules brought in to combat an impending Omicron outbreak.

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has brought in the strict measures as the country battles to stay Covid Zero despite the threat of the highly contagious mutant strain.

    But critics say the lengthy quarantine period is 'unworkable' and will lead people to avoid getting tested.


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10430013/Omicron-2022-Jacinda-Ardern-force-New-Zealand-household-Covid-contacts-isolate-24-DAYS.html

    24 days? Good grief.
    I feel bad but I couldn't help but laugh at reading 24 days. I do feel sorry for the ordinary New Zealander who will suffer, but it's just such a ridiculous response.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Heads-up for all PB armchair warriors:

    Starship Troopers is on Paramount Network (Freeview 32, Sky 150) at 10.50pm.

    "MI do the dying, Fleet just do the flying"
    Heinlein's writing seemed to have two modes: utter trash or inspired genuis.

    The continual references to incest did nothing to enhance it
    Yes, but Verhoevan didn't exactly stick to the book. Just made one of the most morally disturbing Sci Fi films. A real hymn to Facism and genocide.
    The film is actually a satire of the book!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    So we’ve now reached the point where the Chief Whip is tweeting public denials on a Saturday night, then frantically delete them 10 minutes later. All as the letters to the ‘22 start going in. The whole thing is falling apart.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1485017391058894853
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Scott_xP said:

    Mark Spencer has now deleted tweets about Nus Ghani 👇 https://twitter.com/deletedbyMPs/status/1485015045008498694

    lawyers in action tonight?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW🚨Aaron Bell, the Conservative MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, has submitted a letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson

    Bell was elected in 2019 and is key voice among Red Wall colleagues dismayed by PM over partygate

    His letter is with Sir Graham Brady
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nusrat-ghani-i-was-sacked-as-a-minister-because-i-was-a-muslim-p38lmvlvg https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1485014035582095360/photo/1

    Bold move from @Tissue_Price

    Fair play to him for going public. I think it’s the decent thing to do.

    However, I’m not convinced it’s a smart move. I think it’s more likely than not, Boris survives. And politically, even if he goes, I think his replacement is likely to be less favourable towards red wall seats when it comes to cutting the pie.

    Sadly, I think Aaron will live to regret sending that letter.
    Why? He's got a decent chance of keeping his seat and he'll be able to sleep at nigh. What more could he want?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    An extraordinary night of blue on blue Tory v Tory politics - serious allegations deleted tweets, cabinet v cabinet anger

    See @robpowellnews feed for all the minutiae and analysis tonight

    - and clearly a big day on @skynews tomorrow morn unpicking what went on. Live from 0930

    - https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1485017565051207685
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW🚨Aaron Bell, the Conservative MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, has submitted a letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson

    Bell was elected in 2019 and is key voice among Red Wall colleagues dismayed by PM over partygate

    His letter is with Sir Graham Brady
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nusrat-ghani-i-was-sacked-as-a-minister-because-i-was-a-muslim-p38lmvlvg https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1485014035582095360/photo/1

    A good bloke. A cut and a half above his sleazy colleagues
    It should stand him in good stead, and if it doesn’t, he’s better off out of it.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
    If Russia invades Ukraine you will soon care very much
    How much did we care the last time they invaded, when they took Crimea, and the Donbas? Or when they took Abkazia, or Transnistra?

    The millions of displaced Ukraine citizens flooding into Europe will make everyone in Europe care
    So, are you really suggesting sending British fighting troops to fight Europe's most formidable military force? Not that we could deploy anything significant. Or perhaps bombs and cruise missiles onto Russian staging areas? Perhaps a little instant sunshine from Trident?

    Or just sanctions and arms to Ukraine?
    The idea of the UK holding Russia to account would be a bit more convincing if our government had taken effective action to stop the vast amounts of dodgy money belonging to Russian kleptocrats and friends of Putin swilling around our economy, distorting the London property market, buying up bits of our media, and, dare I say, possibly adding to the funds of our ruling party. Not to mention Chelsea FC.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Heads-up for all PB armchair warriors:

    Starship Troopers is on Paramount Network (Freeview 32, Sky 150) at 10.50pm.

    "MI do the dying, Fleet just do the flying"
    Heinlein's writing seemed to have two modes: utter trash or inspired genuis.

    The continual references to incest did nothing to enhance it
    Yes, but Verhoevan didn't exactly stick to the book. Just made one of the most morally disturbing Sci Fi films. A real hymn to Facism and genocide.
    Satire wasn’t it?
    The film yes. The book, no.
    Verhoevan didn't read the book - and so didn't realise the hero is actually a Filipino.

    If he wanted to make an anti-war film, why not buy the rights to The Forever War?

    Rather than the mess he created, which stole about half the action and plot from "Armor" by John Starkey. And then screwed it up.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I also note today that PB's elite team of armchair warriors, having given up for now on China invading Taiwan or the UK invading France, are, in the immortal words of Kenny Everett, in "let's bomb Russia" mode. And they want Germany to join in, regardless of the perilous history that has given rise to Germany's caution in respect of military adventurism. Hm.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-g1exgkHsU
    Yes, I'd forgotten that he also said "let's kick Michael Foot's stick away". Thatcher thought that was hilarious.
    That was of course the election where the SDP under Roy Jenkins almost overtook Foot's Labour, getting 25% to Labour's 27% and Thatcher's Tories got 42% and won 397 seats and a landslide majority of 144.

    If it was ever going to be safe for a celebrity to mock a Labour leader it was with Foot in 1983, even more so than Corbyn in 2019
    Progressive Alliance got 52% of the vote back then, 10 points more than the Tories.
    Thatcher was preferred as PM by 48% of voters in a May 1983 Mori, poll more than Steel on 22%, Foot on 16% and Jenkins on 7% combined.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/most-capable-prime-minister-trends

    At least half of SDP voters would also have voted for the Tories over Foot's Labour on a forced choice
    Moreover, in the 2019 Indian election, the BJP only got 37% of the popular vote!
    In the 2019 general election the BJP won 303 seats to just 52 for Congress (who got 19%) and a majority of 62

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election
    Yes, but only 37% of Indian voters supported the BJP! Shows you how crap a system FPTP is!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643

    Roger said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW🚨Aaron Bell, the Conservative MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, has submitted a letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson

    Bell was elected in 2019 and is key voice among Red Wall colleagues dismayed by PM over partygate

    His letter is with Sir Graham Brady
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nusrat-ghani-i-was-sacked-as-a-minister-because-i-was-a-muslim-p38lmvlvg https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1485014035582095360/photo/1

    Bold move from @Tissue_Price

    Fair play to him for going public. I think it’s the decent thing to do.

    However, I’m not convinced it’s a smart move. I think it’s more likely than not, Boris survives. And politically, even if he goes, I think his replacement is likely to be less favourable towards red wall seats when it comes to cutting the pie.

    Sadly, I think Aaron will live to regret sending that letter.
    Why? He's got a decent chance of keeping his seat and he'll be able to sleep at nigh. What more could he want?
    I wouldn't entirely discount the possibility that TP knows what he is doing, believes in what he is doing, and means what he says.
    Boris, do not ask for who the Bell tolls, it tolls for thee.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Heads-up for all PB armchair warriors:

    Starship Troopers is on Paramount Network (Freeview 32, Sky 150) at 10.50pm.

    "MI do the dying, Fleet just do the flying"
    Heinlein's writing seemed to have two modes: utter trash or inspired genuis.

    The continual references to incest did nothing to enhance it
    Yes, but Verhoevan didn't exactly stick to the book. Just made one of the most morally disturbing Sci Fi films. A real hymn to Facism and genocide.
    Hymn, or extended piss take ?
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,315

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Heads-up for all PB armchair warriors:

    Starship Troopers is on Paramount Network (Freeview 32, Sky 150) at 10.50pm.

    "MI do the dying, Fleet just do the flying"
    Heinlein's writing seemed to have two modes: utter trash or inspired genuis.

    The continual references to incest did nothing to enhance it
    Yes, but Verhoevan didn't exactly stick to the book. Just made one of the most morally disturbing Sci Fi films. A real hymn to Facism and genocide.
    Satire wasn’t it?
    The film yes. The book, no.
    Verhoevan didn't read the book - and so didn't realise the hero is actually a Filipino.

    If he wanted to make an anti-war film, why not buy the rights to The Forever War?

    Rather than the mess he created, which stole about half the action and plot from "Armor" by John Starkey. And then screwed it up.
    The film is great. It’s just that it’s not the book & that gets book fans knickers in a twist.

    It’s a satire of war propaganda & the militaristic fascism that the book (sort of) celebrates. A commentary in part on contemporary Hollywood’s hand in glove cosying up to the CIA & the US military. If you can’t see that the film is satirising fascist propaganda then I suggest that your media literaracy really needs some polishing up, because Verhoevan really wasn’t subtle about it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Russia may be a bit dodgy in terms of it being run as a big men cartel but it is not unique in being a bit dodgy even amongst "western " countries and client states. I dont know much about ukraine politics but I doubt it is an angelic paradise. The UK should butt out and stop thinking we still police the world. It is nothing to do with us and despite what governments pump out , the world is not black and white in terms of goodies and baddies , it is a mere grey world .Wars dont free people they enslave them to governments

    This is a case of vital nation interest. Our vital national interest.

    The mistake I think you're making is in seeing strategy and legitimacy as separate. They aren't. Russia's strategic stance is to attack democracy as a concept, hence its attempts to interfere with elections in numerous countries, and its punishment of Ukraine for deciding to take a more Western path. The strategy is to show democracies as weak, divided internally and from one another, dissolute, and corrupt. This strategy must be resisted in all sphere. This means showing ourselves to be capable to politically serious, to have effective systems of government that nurture the economy and protect the life and liberty of our people, and to stand up to direct armed assaults on our territorial integrity. Western democracy is provably better than the nasty mafia-style kleptocracy Russia has, and our very existence delegitimises Putin's state-level theft. He will always be our enemy. It would be nice if he were gone, but at the bare minimum we should at least protect ourselves from him. And "us" means any Western-facing, democratically minded country.

    Ukraine is in some ways a "new" country. It was freed from the oppressive shackles of Communism in (most of) our lifetimes. It's institutions are fragile and it needs space to grow. It's imperative that we help them because when people choose freedom and are crushed for it, it hurts freedom everywhere. If we cede freedom to oppression, oppression will come to us.
    Respectfully I think that's mere fluff and nice virtuous sentences. I dont want to go to war with somebody who could destroy the world . I don't even want to risk it by posturing . I actually could not care less about who runs Ukraine (as do most people)
    If Russia invades Ukraine you will soon care very much
    How much did we care the last time they invaded, when they took Crimea, and the Donbas? Or when they took Abkazia, or Transnistra?

    The millions of displaced Ukraine citizens flooding into Europe will make everyone in Europe care
    So, are you really suggesting sending British fighting troops to fight Europe's most formidable military force? Not that we could deploy anything significant. Or perhaps bombs and cruise missiles onto Russian staging areas? Perhaps a little instant sunshine from Trident?

    Or just sanctions and arms to Ukraine?
    The idea of the UK holding Russia to account would be a bit more convincing if our government had taken effective action to stop the vast amounts of dodgy money belonging to Russian kleptocrats and friends of Putin swilling around our economy, distorting the London property market, buying up bits of our media, and, dare I say, possibly adding to the funds of our ruling party. Not to mention Chelsea FC.....
    And not publishing the unredacted Russia Report, or serious action on its recommendations.

    Johnsons own history with Russia is quite an interesting read.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Alistair said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Heads-up for all PB armchair warriors:

    Starship Troopers is on Paramount Network (Freeview 32, Sky 150) at 10.50pm.

    "MI do the dying, Fleet just do the flying"
    Heinlein's writing seemed to have two modes: utter trash or inspired genuis.

    The continual references to incest did nothing to enhance it
    Yes, but Verhoevan didn't exactly stick to the book. Just made one of the most morally disturbing Sci Fi films. A real hymn to Facism and genocide.
    Its not a hymn to facism and genocide. It is a balls to the wall satire of the same.

    If you think the film is glorifying anything you are watching it wrong.

    Now the book, the book is both dull as dishwater and an absolute paen for fascism from first to last. Completely lauding the idea of "worthy" and "unworthy" citizens.

    Thr film however is taking the god damn piss.
    In both the book and, it happens in the film, genocide is specifically ruled out as a tactic.

    Because Space Fascism that simply consisted of smashing planets would be really anodyne looking..... What was the line, in another film- "Candy Coated Armageddon"?

    Mind you, Enders Game went there. And how.
  • Scott_xP said:

    So we’ve now reached the point where the Chief Whip is tweeting public denials on a Saturday night, then frantically delete them 10 minutes later. All as the letters to the ‘22 start going in. The whole thing is falling apart.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1485017391058894853

    Thank goodness we still have professional civil servants to keep the show on the road while politicians sort out their differences.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW🚨Aaron Bell, the Conservative MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, has submitted a letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson

    Bell was elected in 2019 and is key voice among Red Wall colleagues dismayed by PM over partygate

    His letter is with Sir Graham Brady
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nusrat-ghani-i-was-sacked-as-a-minister-because-i-was-a-muslim-p38lmvlvg https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1485014035582095360/photo/1

    Bold move from @Tissue_Price

    Fair play to him for going public. I think it’s the decent thing to do.

    However, I’m not convinced it’s a smart move. I think it’s more likely than not, Boris survives. And politically, even if he goes, I think his replacement is likely to be less favourable towards red wall seats when it comes to cutting the pie.

    Sadly, I think Aaron will live to regret sending that letter.
    That I think will depend on whether his successor wants Red Wall votes from MPs and constituents.

    Boris has very noticeably failed to deliver.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    Roger said:

    ping said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW🚨Aaron Bell, the Conservative MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, has submitted a letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson

    Bell was elected in 2019 and is key voice among Red Wall colleagues dismayed by PM over partygate

    His letter is with Sir Graham Brady
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nusrat-ghani-i-was-sacked-as-a-minister-because-i-was-a-muslim-p38lmvlvg https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1485014035582095360/photo/1

    Bold move from @Tissue_Price

    Fair play to him for going public. I think it’s the decent thing to do.

    However, I’m not convinced it’s a smart move. I think it’s more likely than not, Boris survives. And politically, even if he goes, I think his replacement is likely to be less favourable towards red wall seats when it comes to cutting the pie.

    Sadly, I think Aaron will live to regret sending that letter.
    Why? He's got a decent chance of keeping his seat and he'll be able to sleep at nigh. What more could he want?
    I wouldn't entirely discount the possibility that TP knows what he is doing, believes in what he is doing, and means what he says.
    Yes, I think the brave ones have already got their letters in. The rest are waiting for the cover of Sue Gray's report which, although it won't really tell us anything we don't already know, will enable them to say they gave BJ every chance to be 'officially' exonerated - which he won't be. The report will be studiously non-committal; us ex-civil servants know how to write it.
    But I could be wrong, as I often am.
This discussion has been closed.