Now a 58% betting chance that the PM won’t survive 2022 – politicalbetting.com
Now a 58% betting chance that the PM won’t survive 2022 – politicalbetting.com
The big problem for the Prime Minister in what is now known as party-gate is that he doesn’t know the extent of the leaking and it is clear that the latest revelations are not the end of the matter.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Again, we shall see. There seems to be a head of steam, but then, there was late last year and the PCP's mood appeared to be deliberate delay.
Somehow, quite possibly by not turning up to PMQ's, ..... shades of a flight to Kabul ..... he'll avoid Commons humiliation and live to fight another day.
(Oh no you don't; the comments seem to be backwards.)
Kudos to Douglas Ross MSP MP and football linesman for being the very first to break ranks yesterday. The most effective day in his political career by a country mile.
The leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party was just as assured, persuasive and coherent as his predecessor Ruth Davidson, who actually pipped him by a couple of hours (but she’s not an MP).
It was highly risky for Ross. Davidson cannot be sacked, but Ross can. If Johnson survives he’s history. If he goes, he’ll be a hero.
The biggest risk though is not if Johnson goes, but when. If he’s still there in May the SCons are looking down the barrel of a thrashing in the Single Transferable Vote council elections in May. There is no FPTP incentive for Unionist-inclined SLab and SLD voters to lend their votes to the SCons, and every incentive to give The Boris Party the solid kicking they so richly deserve, with support for Brexit now sub 20% north of the border.
So-what southern Tories might respond, but I’ll tell you what: being the first-placed Unionist party is critically important. Without those SLab and especially SLD tactical votes, all 6 SCon MPs are history. If Scottish Labour manage to build a narrative that only they can beat the SNP - which is actually true, in contrast to SCon claims - then the Tories will be back down to their core vote of 15% in no time.
Douglas Ross doesn’t care. He’s not standing for Westminster again when the next UK GE is called, and his Holyrood seat is safe. Two jobs is probably more fun than three jobs anyway.
1. How can Ross be sacked by Johnson? His authority as Scottish leader is derived by election not appointment. I suppose that, theoretically, he could have the whip withdrawn in the Commons, but...
2. This conflicts with your assertion that Ross "doesn't care" about what happens at Westminster, given that he's leaving at the next election, which is evidently true
The man isn't taking any risk at all in sticking the boot into a Prime Minister who's radioactive waste in Scotland. Indeed, why the SCons don't go the whole hog, divorce the Westminster party and go back to being the Unionists is quite beyond me.
As much as I abhor the casual contempt our leaders have held us in, there is something twisted about the hurricane of noise over some rose in the sunshine, and barely a whisper about the scandal of the source of this virus and the corrupt investigation into it.
As a society we’re flagellating Johnson and Djokovic for a bit of hypocrisy, while saying and doing absolutely nothing about the role of China and our own scientists in causing this catastrophe.
And by the way away from this site, my experience is that most people still do not want to hear that it came from a Chinese lab and are largely unaware of such revelations, assuming it is quasi racist Daily Mail and Trump stuff.
It all makes me quite depressed for the future of Western civilisation.
Even the US aren't having a go.
Was boosted end November and suddenly started feeling like I had a cold on Sunday pm. By Monday night felt awful and was brutalised all night by aches and fever - like a supercharged version of how I felt after jabs.
Yesterday I had full on blocked nose, sneezing, headaches and most worrying sore lungs which got worse by the hour. Late in the afternoon someone had delivered me some tablets called Montelukast which are apparently for asthma. I took one (not advising taking unprescribed medicines btw) and within 30 mins my lungs felt fine and have been since - don’t know if it’s being used as a treatment but helped massively as the lung pain was my biggest worry.
My fever went around 2.30 this morning and now simply feel like I have a traditional cold.
3 observations, firstly I was cursing those who said it was like a mild cold when I was feeling like death yesterday!! Second I cannot thank enough those people who created vaccines as I dread to think how bad I could have been if not boostered and third Djokovic is an absolute cock.
* I asterisked “finally” as I was struck how very similar I felt these last few days to a few days of grimness back in March 2020 before testing was easy so will never know what I had then.
Took me a while to get back to normal.
As @Cyclefree described in the previous header the spring of 2020 was indeed glorious. My wife and I made good use of that weather to go on extensive walks near our home in the glorious countryside. We both got a bit fitter and a bit leaner as a result. It seemed a sensible precaution in case the virus came knocking.
Was it a breach of Nicola's ridiculous rules? At times, probably. But we were walking country roads and paths, there were few others there, when we came across others we, at that time, made a point of walking on the other side. There was no risk and an upside in terms of our health.
I really don't believe that the vast majority of us did any different. Despite Nicola's ridiculous rules most, virtually all, people I know took decisions based upon their own circumstances and their assessment of the risks. Some idiots who took ridiculous risks, such as large house parties, were prosecuted but the courts (which were mainly shut) were not exactly clogged up with wrongdoers.
The rules in both England and Scotland allowed "essential workers" to go out to work. That definition was very broad. Advocates were apparently essential workers. I didn't use this much because it didn't seem safe to do so in a world before vaccines but I occasionally went to Edinburgh to access text books etc.
Essential workers included Downing Street staff. They were working hard for the good of the country (whatever they actually achieved) in close proximity indoors for hours every day. The idea that they had a significantly greater risk because they had a drink together in the garden afterwards is as absurd as the idea my wife and I were being reckless when our walks took us more than 2 miles from our house.
I simply do not buy into this hypocrisy nonsense, the sanctimonious whining, the largely made up stories of individual hardship caused by compliance with very largely unenforced regulations. This hysteria is ridiculous. And Boris, unlike Nicola, was very clear from the start that he wanted a light touch and to rely as much as possible on advice, judgment and common sense.
What is not acceptable is that he allowed these events to go on, even attended them, and then lied about both his knowledge and participation. Of course one of our former PMs got away with making up evidence and using it to take our country to war. This is trivial by comparison but it is annoying, especially in the way it has been handled.
So what else is happening right now, for which this is providing convenient distraction?
If I was Johnson, I would come back with the line of “yes, I was wrong but it’s not as though I lied to Parliament to take our country into a war that cost hundreds of lives of British troops. By the way, what does the Leader of the Opposition think about Tony Blair getting a knighthood?”
Not a joke by the way. Would dominate the headlines the next day and show SKS to be a hypocrite
The PM broke rules of his own making, and has lied about it. This has really cut through and the anger is genuine. The longer it carries on the more the Conservative Party is compromised.
If we had done this, we would have been prosecuted.
Why should Johnson be any different?
As for 'working hard for the good of the country,' I am afraid one thing this pandemic has shown with brutal clarity is how much better off we would be without most of the Civil Service.
But I agree. I think the government's sin was to enact the damaging and unnecessary rules in the first place. I really can't care that they broke them, when most people did in one way or another, despite all the hypocritical outrage.
Boris voted for the war in 2003, along with the majority of his party. The brave voices were those of Cook, Kennedy and Clarke.
At no point though were we having a piss up in the hospital garden.
Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
·
32m
No minister has been made available for the usual series of morning interviews on TV/radio today… everything hinges on what PM says at PMQs.
It’s the second time in a month that ministers have had to be pulled from interviews due to devastating revelations of parties in No 10.
Not made up
In any case, the story is now the story itself. If the offence is trivial but Johnson's former allies are still calling for his head, that's as big a story as: the offence is really serious.
I also know multiple people back in the UK who were stopped while travelling to work in their car at this time. One of whom got stopped twice while travelling for work between North Wales and Nottingham.
I’m yet to see evidence that a socially-distanced drink in the garden, for a group of people who had been working together indoors all day, was against any rules in place on that date.
The party stories unlock that latent fury about highly authoritarian measures and enforcement mandates enacted without proper analysis of the costs and benefits, the incompetent disregard for unintrusive but far more worthwhile potential interventions, and last but not least the quite deliberate weaponisation of fear by the government against its own people.
My worry is that the wrong lessons will be learnt from Boris’s downfall, namely that he was insufficiently pure in his self application of Chinese Communist style containment measures. When really the problem was the way those measures were implemented in the first place.
But the key point is what BJ should do. He should apologise but then throw the dead cat on the table. If, as has been said, his reputation is in tatters anyway, it’s a good way of distracting attention. It also forces SKS to take a view on Blair, which he’s never keen on doing.
It's quite incredible when you consider the Brexit victory and the stunning 2019 win. Now, two years on, he is doing to them what the Major years did.
The hurt and anger over this one will not go away. He united this country through that first awful lockdown: we stood on the doorsteps clapping together, we went through hell, many of us knew those who died ... alone.
And this guy f**ked with us.
I think the Jim Shannon moment will go down in the annals. This wasn't some loopy leftie. This was a heart-rending moment which summed up our nation's mood.
Johnson: you're a tosser.
Workplaces banned people from sharing sweets and even made people wear buzzers round their necks that beeped if you got remotely close to people. Even suggesting a social drink would have HR on your case.
You may not realise from the middle east but this was the reality.
Yes from a risk perspective drinks in the downing st garden probably wasn’t a big deal but it was completely tone deaf and completely spits in the face of “we’re all in this together”.
SKS could, of course, condemn Blair there and then which would take the wind out of it but I suspect he wouldn’t
Your first point is contradicted by your last sentence. Until the SCons divorce their unfaithful masters in Westminster, their leader can always be imposed or sacked. Indeed, Ruth Davidson herself was very controversially imposed on the SCons by David Cameron, a scandal which still rankles among the rank and file.
Regarding point 2: you misunderstand. Douglas Ross is a Unionist first and last. He doesn’t give a fig about his own Westminster seat or indeed care much about any SCon Westminster seat. What he cares about is the Union. And if only Scottish Labour can save the Union - which everyone and their dog understands in Scotland - then Scottish Labour *must* save the Union. If that means the annihilation of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party then so be it. It is a price worth paying.
Hampstead Heath for one was packed every day and no one gave a f*ck about the regulations. Probably included were a fair few of the journalists whipping up the story now.
HYUFD is right, surely no government will do this again. They set themselves up. As a liberal, this is the good that may come out of all this.
A close friend of my parents died at the end of 2020 April, so plenty of her children, siblings, nieces, nephews, and grandchildren couldn't attend her outdoor funeral.
The anger is real.
As I think Adam Wagner pointed out, plenty of people have convictions for holding socially distanced events from May 2020, several hundred in Westminster court alone.
Control the controllables. I can influence the removal of the UK government. I can't influence where Covid may or may not have come from. So I don't.
The knighthood was awarded by Brenda and we don't discuss Brenda or her family in Parliament like that.
At least nearly all (all?) Conservative supporters on here have accepted that Boris is a bit of a wrong 'un. It's sad that so many Labour-leaning supporters still try to excuse Blair over that grievous lie.
- “… the sanctimonious whining, the largely made up stories of individual hardship…”
- “… Boris… light touch… judgment and common sense.“
- “… Nicola's ridiculous rules.”
Not pretty David.
You normally display fine political antennae, but that is a truly dreadful post. You are wrong.
What is tells me is that your party desperately, desperately wants Johnson to remain in post. I cannot express how happy and relieved Labour, SNP and Lib Dem strategists will be. Please try to hang on until at least May. May is going to be glorious.
A while back I pointed out that given the layout of Downing Street it was impossible for Boris Johnson or Carrie Johnson to not know there was a party going on downstairs, given the outdoor party, it is also impossible for Rishi Sunak to not know there were outdoor parties going on.
I don't believe that politics is full of liars. I dislike Theresa May and her politics for example, but don't question her honesty.
Blair was a liar or at least a self-deluding fantasist, sure, but I can't think of any notable lies from other PMs from Thatcher onwards. And Blair has been jumped on to the extent of 1m no knighthood signatures, so not much of an example of afree pass.
I know that its easy to be that myopic from thousands of miles away from the action. But the fury here is at a level I can barely believe.
You and David and the few remaining Peppa apologists are dutifully trying to excuse the indefensible and I admire that a little bit. But some things are very simple. Right and wrong...
It's the Queen. Sat alone, in a mask, at the funeral for her husband to whom she was married for longer than most of us have been alive. She followed the rules.
The PM didn't.
The normally rock-solid DavidL has lost it this morning. Fascinating.
*) Those who never particularly liked Boris and would have preferred a different leader in 2019.
*) Those who were happy to back him as long as he was a winner (which, to be fair, he was).
*) Those who are obsessed with Brexit, and will be worried another leader might water down their 'wins'.
*) Those who are slavishly loyal to whichever leader is in (say, the Michael Ellis, Nick Palmer or Keir Starmer sorts).
*) Those who think they can replace him.
The first will want to get rid of him. The second are probably fed up with these unforced errors. The third will be looking for a 'pure' candidate to replace Boris. The fourth are hopeless. The fifth will stab BJ in the back, but only at the correct time.
Those wanting Boris to go will be thinking of two things:
1) Timing.
2) Who to replace him with.
"You see ? I get it ! I'm just like you and compromised. I have a sense of humour about it, not like the pompous people ! "
That's far more damaging for democratic functioning.
Lets say it plays as you suggest. Starmer will stand there laughing - gesturing at Peppa saying "but you voted for it! You supported it!" - it makes the PM look like an even greater pillock than he already is.
That you can't see it is your problem!
Just have the vision of the great train robbers using it as Buster Edwards was sunning himself in Mexico. Suspect it might have got some years added to their sentences.
The whys and wherefores of Iraw are not in question here. Even if you were against Iraq - and I was on that million person march in London - its nearly 20 years into the past.
What matters is today, this government, this Prime Minister. Even your attempt to deflect onto Sturgeon earlier doesn't work as the edicts from Number 10 at the time were applied in the devolved nations equally. Whats more when someone in the Scottish government broke the rules they got hauled over the coals by Sturgeon, not defended in Downing Street garden.
I keep saying this is about basic morality but it is. Party politics is fun but sometimes something is just plain wrong. Not on. Unacceptable. Saying that to be the case doesn't mean you are providing succour to parties you dislike, it is you providing a service to your own party by stopping it being brought into disrepute and giving it a chance in elections like this May's locals.
What else is happening? Wallpapergate?