Johnson exit date betting moves sharply to 2022 – politicalbetting.com

Mr. Pulpstar, your loss would be the nation's gain.

Jenni Lang
@lang_towers
· 12h
On 20 May 2020 my baby brother was in ICU. He died on 23rd May. We couldn’t sit with him until they switched off his life support. My dad and I watched him take his last breaths over FaceTime. The words I want to use right now would get me kicked off Twitter #DowningStreetParties


Andrew Lilico
@andrew_lilico
·
16m
How could the Downing St folk not see the force in this? I simply don't understand their outlook. As I've said before, I'm not angry or offended. I find them too alien to be angry at them. It would be like being angry with a lion or a moth. I just don't understand them at all.

eek said:

mr-claypole said:

Isn't it the case that if this isn't the end of him then the next thing or the next one or the next one will be? in other words it needs a mercy killing from the backbenchers now rather than later. He will not become a beacon of probity overnight will he?

You need Boris to swallow as much bad news as possible so that when the replacement comes he can pin all the disasters on Boris...

That time really isn't now and probably isn't May.

When are we expecting the next news that isn't bad? On your logic he could be there for ages.

StuartDickson said:

Benpointer said:

StuartDickson said:

Benpointer said:

Rob_downunder said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

dixiedean said:

What this country really needs at this time of a cost of living crunch is an even wealthier PM then?

Someone who knows how to manage money at the highest levels is perfect

I think that's a mistaken view Big_G. In my experience the people who know how to manage money best are those who have very little; anyone with lots of money really doesn't have to try very hard to make more.

I've seen it to a small extent through my life:

In my early married years money was always tight, we only kept our heads above water by budgeting very carefully, checking the prices of everything, foregoing some things each month that we'd have liked but couldn't afford, etc. This is the common experience of millions of families up and down the country.

But, as my career progressed and my earnings increased, gradually money became less and less of an issue until now, in a comfortable retirement - mortgage paid, no debts, reasonable savings, good pension - I never really think about money. And yet still our savings seem to grow.

Anyone like Sunak who has never had to endure the grind of weekly and monthly budgeting on an income that is not quite enough, does most assuredly not know how to manage money.

I understand your point but do not agree

It is one thing budgeting household expenditure, it is quite another dealing with millions, billions and more running a Country's finance

Reminds me of the nonsense analogy Thatcher used to spout about a good housewife managing the nations accounts.

Indeed, it was total tosh. For a start, what housewife has the ability to print their own money, or set their own interest rate?

Or steal the next door neighbour’s oil and gas?

Or steal the next door neighbour’s waste all the oil and gas stored in the attic?

Corrected for you

First time I’ve heard Scotland described as “the attic”, but I can see how that fits into an Anglocentric worldview.

More like cellar or outside cludgie the way we get treated

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

Harry Cole
@MrHarryCole
·
8s
NEW: PM sends the Paymaster General Michael Ellis to answer Labour's UQ in the Commons..

Hospital pass.

I am shocked that the coward who hid in a fridge has done this.

It'll be just like the fall guy sent onto R4 this morning.

"Was the PM at the party?"

"I don't know"

It's just playing for time - obviously (given the witnesses) the inquiry will 'find' that the clown was at the party (where else would a clown be?), but he just hopes something else will have turned up by then.

Let's hope Cummings has the necessary photo and it comes out in the weekend's papers.

This is Paymaster General Michael Ellis who will answer Labour’s urgent question on the PM’s lockdown partying

Last time he did this he described Boris Johnson as a man of ‘honour and integrity’ https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1480869213212393480/photo/1

No_Offence_Alan said:

StuartDickson said:

Malmesbury said:

Does anyone know what the "culture" was in the No. 11 office? Interesting that Sunak is utterly invisible in all of these parties. How was he running his ship?

Teetotaller?

How about "professional" ?

So Rishi is teetotal and professional. I'd add that iirc he does not live in Downing Street.

Scott_xP said:

This is Paymaster General Michael Ellis who will answer Labour’s urgent question on the PM’s lockdown partying

Last time he did this he described Boris Johnson as a man of ‘honour and integrity’ https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1480869213212393480/photo/1

This was the same Boris Johnson?

StuartDickson said:

Applicant said:

StuartDickson said:

Applicant said:

StuartDickson said:

Carnyx said:

StuartDickson said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Carnyx said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Cicero said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

An odd thread really. HYUFD demonstrating just how wrong one man can be about so many things at the same time.

Firstly the Red Wall will not vote for Boris in 2024. Dismissing all other leaders because "they will only vote for Boris" is utterly ludicrous when the polls show they won't vote for Boris.

Secondly pretty much everyone here is lined up with the basics of right and wrong. Two months into Covid restrictions the government giving a 3pm "you will not meet with other people" instruction and a 5pm "everyone round to number 10, bring a bottle, we deserve a party" is demonstrably indefensible. Never mind the political optics, it's indefensible to anyone with a brain, a conscience or morals.

So perhaps he of the high church lecturing the rest of us about Christian values may consider the plank in his own eye. I haven't seen such screaming hypocrisy since IDS claimed to be a man of God before proceeding to smash the poor as hard as humanly possible.

Finally, what the red wall voted for. Yes Boris was a bit of a lad, the anti-politician anti-Tory. But they bought that principally because he offered the solution to their problems. Which wasn't Brexit, it was the reason why they voted for Brexit

There are many planks to this. Some voted to get rid of all the foreigners. Some because they wanted money for the NHS. Some to kick the government. And so many more because they wanted their town and their community and their family to have a chance in life that they unfairly were being denied. Fairness is something very high on the agenda of people in the red wall. So the idea they will still vote for the lying cheating mocking incompetent corrupt charlatan is breathtaking.

Boris Johnson is over. The Tory party can either accept this, replace him with someone who represents the values of both the party and the country and have a chance, or keep him and not only lose the election but smash the party into pieces.

The latest polls have the Tories on 33-35% and Labour with only a 3 to 5% lead and there were plenty of garden drinks party photos before that. That is more Cameron midterm polling, nowhere near pre 1997 polling.

The only hypothetical alternative leader polling from Opinium last month had a Truss or Gove led Tories polling worse than a Boris led Tories. Even a Sunak led Tories were only on 34% ie no better than they are polling now.

So the only one wrong on this is you. As long as Boris continues to impose no new restrictions, especially on the vaccinated, he will survive

Whom the Gods would destroy, they first make mad. If HYFUD prevails, then the Conservatives will face an extinction level event at the next general election. It never seems to occur to him that the opinion polls he consistently and complacently quotes are a lagging indicator.

Look most commentators on here hate Boris and did not even vote for him in 2019. Yet the 33 to 35% the Tories are still polling is still higher than the Tories got from 1997 to 2005, hardly extinction level

Not true, my guess would be about 60% of the active site voted for Johnson in 2019 and sub 20% intend to next time

Yebbut as HYUFD keeps saying mostd of that 60% - indeed also that 20% - aren't Real Tories anyway.

Exactly. You're only a real Tory if you vote Plaid Cymru to support Welsh secession from the Union.

Oh yes, and advocate the creation of an English Parliament and the secession of Antrim from the Union whiles at it.

An English parliament is perfectly compatible with the Union, just a Union based on equality that treats England the same as the other 3 home nations

Agreed.

Quite, which begs the quesiton why it isn't Tory policy.

Tory policy is “Get Brexit Done”, which is impossible, as Brexit will never be “done”.

Last I checked, the United Kingdom has left the European Union...

The UK was a member of the EU for best part of half a century. During that time, entry was never “done”.

Xenophobes can moan for decades on end. So can internationalists.

Contrasting "internationalists" with "xeonphobes" is not a convincing look.

Substitute any nouns you like, the point stands. Brexit is not done, and it never will be.

It would make a good riddle: what can never be done, but may one day be undone?

kinabalu said:

PJH said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

I still doubt this sinks Boris. Most of those who will be appalled are already voting Labour after the past garden party photos.

The remainder still voting Tory are diehard anti restrictions voters on the whole. Indeed prominent anti Covid restrictions campaigner Adam Brooks already is concerned this is a plot to replace Boris with a pro restrictions PM eg Hunt or Gove or Javid.

https://twitter.com/EssexPR/status/1480705424332673024?s=20

Unless Labour gets a 10% + poll lead from this Boris will likely avoid a VONC

(FPT) I approve this message.

@PadTheHoundsman ... I know I'm late to this discussion thread (and post only rarely anyway), but I need to get this off my chest.

It's not that the UK's Covid rules were wrong - they weren't - but that the cavalier attitude towards them demonstrated by the people in charge of running the top political offices in the country speaks volumes about their commitment to running a properly constructed and effective government. That the PM, a man who himself had only recently experienced the full force of Covid, should have so little empathy with the people he works with that he was prepared for them to risk the same outcome in the name of a large social gathering - something that was illegal for the rest of us - is horrifying. Even if you were to give him the benefit of what little doubt there is and take the view that he attended because he believed he was immune and wasn't a personal threat to anyone doesn't absolve him of the responsibility for allowing the event to go ahead in the first place.

The current strata of people who are running the country - not just the politicians but the special advisors and senior civil servants whose stunning lack of self awareness in the face of a deadly worldwide pandemic is now visible with the light of a thousand suns - should all, to a man, shuffle off into a deep and meaningless retirement and let some people in to run the country who have a sense of professionalism, honour and pride in the quality of their work.

It's not that I carry a candle for the other lot all of a sudden (it's unlikely I ever will) but the PM and his coterie need to depart stage right immediately before they undermine whatever is left of the public's perceptions of the need for health and security in a pandemic that's simply not going to go away any time soon.

I'm a card carrying party member and I voted for him in the leadership election, but I'm now compelled to say BORIS OUT!

"Cavalier attitude" - @PadTheHoundsman is exactly right. That's the problem. not the subtler nuances of what the rules were at the time and whether others were doing the same. The rule setters have to follow them to the letter, and for the avoidance of doubt, even more exactly than everyone else.

Many people at the same time complied with the rules at personal cost and reluctance. For example at this point I had only just been allowed to see my girlfriend again after 2 months - she felt that because of her job she had to observe the rules to the letter. If her, why not Number 10?

Having said that, I don't think this revelation makes much difference, except it is one more drip into the narrative. I still think Johnson survives because it's in nobody's interests to depose him (yet).

Contempt is the watchword for me. Johnson has contempt for the electorate. Also, I find my own reaction to this interesting - which is unusual because normally it's other people's reactions I'm keen to understand & process. I wasn't particularly angered by the previous examples of Downing St socializing - they seemed quite trivial to me especially cf things like (eg) the Paterson affair - but this one I do find appalling and extremely serious.

I can't be alone in this. The country surely can't be divided neatly into those outraged by all of partygate and those outraged by none of it. There must be plenty like me who have thus far felt, "Hmm, not exactly the worst thing in the world" but have now moved to, "Oh ffs, that is unforgivable, how much more of this can we take?"

Yes, I'd agree - I wasn't exactly outraged by the last one. Ten people drinking in the garden after work? Not egregious. This? Egregious.
Though I wouldn't describe my mood as 'outraged'. I've expended a lot of emotional energy this pandemic, and my emotional responses have generally been to government restrictions (and, to be fair, council restrictions, and unions - anything which has stood in the way of normal life). I've tended to be emotionally on the side of those bending the rules.
And yes, I know this goes rather beyond 'bending', and that he was the one making the rules! I'm not in any way seeking to justify what he was doing, I'm explaining my mood - which is more one of weary amusement. I don't claim that this is rational. I'd say my contempt for him has increased, rather than my sense of outrage. (This is good - outrage is a very addictive emotional kick and is bad for your mental health. Try to find an alternative emotion, m'kay?)
Also mixed in is some excitement (will this finally see him off? will this increase the likelihood that we will end restrictions?) together with some nerves (will he be replaced by someone keener on restrictions - either some other Tory or SKS?)

I've assumed each garden party attendee was a 7ft circle - a 1ft circle for the person (very low, I know, but better than 0ft) with a 3ft social distance around, and used the 100ft x 30ft garden approximation on this website
https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/circles-within-rectangle-d_1905.html
It tells me the garden would hold 588 folk. Obviously they'd have to not move once in place, until leaving in single file.

Northern_Al said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

Beth Rigby
@BethRigby
·
56m
Tory party mood dark

V senior Tory says: ‘It’s as bad as it gets. Fact Dowden was telling people what they couldn’t do from one room & less than hour later this was happening in garden is indefensible

Another: ‘Mood terrible -even those who profess loyalty to him are in despair

I have to say listening to Burley and Rigby on breaking lockdown is surreal

But Burley and Rigby didn't make the rules. The onus on those who make the rules not to break them is much, much higher than that on the rule-takers.

I do not disagree but they both blatantly broke the rules

rkrkrk said:

kinabalu said:

PJH said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

I still doubt this sinks Boris. Most of those who will be appalled are already voting Labour after the past garden party photos.

The remainder still voting Tory are diehard anti restrictions voters on the whole. Indeed prominent anti Covid restrictions campaigner Adam Brooks already is concerned this is a plot to replace Boris with a pro restrictions PM eg Hunt or Gove or Javid.

https://twitter.com/EssexPR/status/1480705424332673024?s=20

Unless Labour gets a 10% + poll lead from this Boris will likely avoid a VONC

(FPT) I approve this message.

@PadTheHoundsman ... I know I'm late to this discussion thread (and post only rarely anyway), but I need to get this off my chest.

It's not that the UK's Covid rules were wrong - they weren't - but that the cavalier attitude towards them demonstrated by the people in charge of running the top political offices in the country speaks volumes about their commitment to running a properly constructed and effective government. That the PM, a man who himself had only recently experienced the full force of Covid, should have so little empathy with the people he works with that he was prepared for them to risk the same outcome in the name of a large social gathering - something that was illegal for the rest of us - is horrifying. Even if you were to give him the benefit of what little doubt there is and take the view that he attended because he believed he was immune and wasn't a personal threat to anyone doesn't absolve him of the responsibility for allowing the event to go ahead in the first place.

The current strata of people who are running the country - not just the politicians but the special advisors and senior civil servants whose stunning lack of self awareness in the face of a deadly worldwide pandemic is now visible with the light of a thousand suns - should all, to a man, shuffle off into a deep and meaningless retirement and let some people in to run the country who have a sense of professionalism, honour and pride in the quality of their work.

It's not that I carry a candle for the other lot all of a sudden (it's unlikely I ever will) but the PM and his coterie need to depart stage right immediately before they undermine whatever is left of the public's perceptions of the need for health and security in a pandemic that's simply not going to go away any time soon.

I'm a card carrying party member and I voted for him in the leadership election, but I'm now compelled to say BORIS OUT!

"Cavalier attitude" - @PadTheHoundsman is exactly right. That's the problem. not the subtler nuances of what the rules were at the time and whether others were doing the same. The rule setters have to follow them to the letter, and for the avoidance of doubt, even more exactly than everyone else.

Many people at the same time complied with the rules at personal cost and reluctance. For example at this point I had only just been allowed to see my girlfriend again after 2 months - she felt that because of her job she had to observe the rules to the letter. If her, why not Number 10?

Having said that, I don't think this revelation makes much difference, except it is one more drip into the narrative. I still think Johnson survives because it's in nobody's interests to depose him (yet).

Contempt is the watchword for me. Johnson has contempt for the electorate. Also, I find my own reaction to this interesting - which is unusual because normally it's other people's reactions I'm keen to understand & process. I wasn't particularly angered by the previous examples of Downing St socializing - they seemed quite trivial to me especially cf things like (eg) the Paterson affair - but this one I do find appalling and extremely serious.

I can't be alone in this. The country surely can't be divided neatly into those outraged by all of partygate and those outraged by none of it. There must be plenty like me who have thus far felt, "Hmm, not exactly the worst thing in the world" but have now moved to, "Oh ffs, that is unforgivable, how much more of this can we take?"

Speaking for myself - it was Cummings that got me irrationally angry. I think it was because I was currently in lockdown... and because he knew he had COVID. But this is probably worse, as it doesn't have the "I was thinking about my kids" reasoning/excuse.

Tbf - he didn't know he had covid, he suspected it, and should have behaved in the way the government was laying out.

BlancheLivermore said:

I've assumed each garden party attendee was a 7ft circle - a 1ft circle for the person (very low, I know, but better than 0ft) with a 3ft social distance around, and used the 100ft x 30ft garden approximation on this website
https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/circles-within-rectangle-d_1905.html
It tells me the garden would hold 588 folk. Obviously they'd have to not move once in place, until leaving in single file.

The logistics in going to pick up a sausage roll is mind boggling.

Flatlander said:

Carnyx said:

turbotubbs said:

turbotubbs said:

Sandpit said:

turbotubbs said:

Sandpit said:

Cookie said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

Anabobazina said:

Was that ever true? Really? That you could stand two metres from someone if you didn’t know them but not if you did know them? It’s so long ago and much water has flowed under Westminster Bridge, but if that were ever true, it’s even more bonkers than I ever dared believe.

It is completely true. You were allowed to meet one person from outside your household as long as you stayed 2 metres apart. As you were allowed to beach, the park, on picnics etc etc on May 20, 2020 you were obviously going to be 2 metres from people that you did not know, and that was ok. Clearly the police were never going to enforce any of these rules.

Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.

This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/gallery/2020/may/25/uk-crowds-enjoy-may-sunshine-lockdown-eases-in-pictures

As pointed out frequently, at the time, the use of long lenses to foreshorten perspective and make people appear to be closer to each other than they really were, was a standard create-a-story tactic.

If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.

The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.

The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....

The point is though the end of May 2020 was not the "height of lockdown" and you could sit on a beach 2 metres from everyone and drink beer.

It's worth looking at the Bournemouth Beach on Google Earth aerial views. Those groynes are getting on for 200m apart. Those people are nothing like as close together as they appear.

I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical.
Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.

The Downing St garden, looking at Google maps, is around 30,000 sq ft. That’s room for more than 3,000 people all sitting 6’ apart!

Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.

And we are back on dodgy maths. If it were 300 x 100 ft, then you could array people 50 x 15, so 750, if its a simple grid. That may not be the best space filling model, but I struggle to get that to 3000.

Dodgy maths indeed, but not mine. To be 6’ from one another, a person needs to sit in the middle of 9 sq ft, 3’ x 3’. People 6’ apart can nearly touch their fingers if they stretch.

Either way, the garden is way bigger than required for a socially distanced event, for people who have spent the day working in close proximity to each other indoors.

I was working on a packing structure, buy maybe the grid is a poor choice? You've gone with the circles, but that will also leave some gaps - the circles have holes around them! This used to be a 1st yr chemistry practical.

And looking again - each person with a 3 ft radius occupies 3.141 x 3 x 3, about 28 square ft. So up to 1000, but that ignores the gaps...

No; each person needs to be in a circle of radius 3.3 feet - it's 2m social distancing remember. That is an area of 35 square feet per person. Then you need to work out the 2-d close packing of those circles touching, which would 'waste' some of the garden space. To a crude approximation you could put each person in a square of 2 x 2m which would be 44 sq feet per person. 681 people. So TT has it about right. But then there is no way to get at the drinkies or food. So you need to make sure each person can access an open lane to the food etc - and that has to be two-way, with passing places at least - but they are getting pissed, so make it two way. THat makes half as many. And deduct a bit for the garden walls, fountains, stachoo of Churchill, etc. We're getting down to 300-odd.

Hexagonal packing is the most efficient.

Area of a hexagon with side to side dimension of 2m is 3.46m² or 37.3 sq feet.

I do wonder if Boris actually reads any of his emails though. Government by WhatsApp innit?

Someone ought to contact Scientific American and get a piece in 'Mathematical Recreations'

"Effective packing algorithms in a Downing Street garden."

Flatlander said:

Carnyx said:

turbotubbs said:

turbotubbs said:

Sandpit said:

turbotubbs said:

Sandpit said:

Cookie said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

Anabobazina said:

Was that ever true? Really? That you could stand two metres from someone if you didn’t know them but not if you did know them? It’s so long ago and much water has flowed under Westminster Bridge, but if that were ever true, it’s even more bonkers than I ever dared believe.

It is completely true. You were allowed to meet one person from outside your household as long as you stayed 2 metres apart. As you were allowed to beach, the park, on picnics etc etc on May 20, 2020 you were obviously going to be 2 metres from people that you did not know, and that was ok. Clearly the police were never going to enforce any of these rules.

Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.

This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/gallery/2020/may/25/uk-crowds-enjoy-may-sunshine-lockdown-eases-in-pictures

As pointed out frequently, at the time, the use of long lenses to foreshorten perspective and make people appear to be closer to each other than they really were, was a standard create-a-story tactic.

If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.

The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.

The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....

The point is though the end of May 2020 was not the "height of lockdown" and you could sit on a beach 2 metres from everyone and drink beer.

It's worth looking at the Bournemouth Beach on Google Earth aerial views. Those groynes are getting on for 200m apart. Those people are nothing like as close together as they appear.

I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical.
Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.

The Downing St garden, looking at Google maps, is around 30,000 sq ft. That’s room for more than 3,000 people all sitting 6’ apart!

Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.

And we are back on dodgy maths. If it were 300 x 100 ft, then you could array people 50 x 15, so 750, if its a simple grid. That may not be the best space filling model, but I struggle to get that to 3000.

Dodgy maths indeed, but not mine. To be 6’ from one another, a person needs to sit in the middle of 9 sq ft, 3’ x 3’. People 6’ apart can nearly touch their fingers if they stretch.

Either way, the garden is way bigger than required for a socially distanced event, for people who have spent the day working in close proximity to each other indoors.

I was working on a packing structure, buy maybe the grid is a poor choice? You've gone with the circles, but that will also leave some gaps - the circles have holes around them! This used to be a 1st yr chemistry practical.

And looking again - each person with a 3 ft radius occupies 3.141 x 3 x 3, about 28 square ft. So up to 1000, but that ignores the gaps...

No; each person needs to be in a circle of radius 3.3 feet - it's 2m social distancing remember. That is an area of 35 square feet per person. Then you need to work out the 2-d close packing of those circles touching, which would 'waste' some of the garden space. To a crude approximation you could put each person in a square of 2 x 2m which would be 44 sq feet per person. 681 people. So TT has it about right. But then there is no way to get at the drinkies or food. So you need to make sure each person can access an open lane to the food etc - and that has to be two-way, with passing places at least - but they are getting pissed, so make it two way. THat makes half as many. And deduct a bit for the garden walls, fountains, stachoo of Churchill, etc. We're getting down to 300-odd.

Hexagonal packing is the most efficient.

Area of a hexagon with side to side dimension of 2m is 3.46m² or 37.3 sq feet.


I do wonder if Boris actually reads any of his emails though. Government by WhatsApp innit?

Is that 'garden' just a patch of lawn? Are there no flowering shrubs, trees, flower beds and so on? Must reduce the available standing space, surely.

Flatlander said:

Carnyx said:

turbotubbs said:

turbotubbs said:

Sandpit said:

turbotubbs said:

Sandpit said:

Cookie said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

Anabobazina said:

Was that ever true? Really? That you could stand two metres from someone if you didn’t know them but not if you did know them? It’s so long ago and much water has flowed under Westminster Bridge, but if that were ever true, it’s even more bonkers than I ever dared believe.

It is completely true. You were allowed to meet one person from outside your household as long as you stayed 2 metres apart. As you were allowed to beach, the park, on picnics etc etc on May 20, 2020 you were obviously going to be 2 metres from people that you did not know, and that was ok. Clearly the police were never going to enforce any of these rules.

Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.

This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/gallery/2020/may/25/uk-crowds-enjoy-may-sunshine-lockdown-eases-in-pictures

As pointed out frequently, at the time, the use of long lenses to foreshorten perspective and make people appear to be closer to each other than they really were, was a standard create-a-story tactic.

If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.

The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.

The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....

The point is though the end of May 2020 was not the "height of lockdown" and you could sit on a beach 2 metres from everyone and drink beer.

It's worth looking at the Bournemouth Beach on Google Earth aerial views. Those groynes are getting on for 200m apart. Those people are nothing like as close together as they appear.

I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical.
Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.

The Downing St garden, looking at Google maps, is around 30,000 sq ft. That’s room for more than 3,000 people all sitting 6’ apart!

Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.

And we are back on dodgy maths. If it were 300 x 100 ft, then you could array people 50 x 15, so 750, if its a simple grid. That may not be the best space filling model, but I struggle to get that to 3000.

Dodgy maths indeed, but not mine. To be 6’ from one another, a person needs to sit in the middle of 9 sq ft, 3’ x 3’. People 6’ apart can nearly touch their fingers if they stretch.

Either way, the garden is way bigger than required for a socially distanced event, for people who have spent the day working in close proximity to each other indoors.

I was working on a packing structure, buy maybe the grid is a poor choice? You've gone with the circles, but that will also leave some gaps - the circles have holes around them! This used to be a 1st yr chemistry practical.

And looking again - each person with a 3 ft radius occupies 3.141 x 3 x 3, about 28 square ft. So up to 1000, but that ignores the gaps...

No; each person needs to be in a circle of radius 3.3 feet - it's 2m social distancing remember. That is an area of 35 square feet per person. Then you need to work out the 2-d close packing of those circles touching, which would 'waste' some of the garden space. To a crude approximation you could put each person in a square of 2 x 2m which would be 44 sq feet per person. 681 people. So TT has it about right. But then there is no way to get at the drinkies or food. So you need to make sure each person can access an open lane to the food etc - and that has to be two-way, with passing places at least - but they are getting pissed, so make it two way. THat makes half as many. And deduct a bit for the garden walls, fountains, stachoo of Churchill, etc. We're getting down to 300-odd.

Hexagonal packing is the most efficient.

Area of a hexagon with side to side dimension of 2m is 3.46m² or 37.3 sq feet.


I do wonder if Boris actually reads any of his emails though. Government by WhatsApp innit?

Thanks! I once worked it out for myself in 3-D from very first principles (considerably surprising a protein crystallographer friend) so it's a luxury to have it done for me. The problem now however becomes the access lanes but if you don't mind a wiggly lane we are fine and you can add a few more dozen.

OldKingCole said:

Flatlander said:

Carnyx said:

turbotubbs said:

turbotubbs said:

Sandpit said:

turbotubbs said:

Sandpit said:

Cookie said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

Anabobazina said:

Was that ever true? Really? That you could stand two metres from someone if you didn’t know them but not if you did know them? It’s so long ago and much water has flowed under Westminster Bridge, but if that were ever true, it’s even more bonkers than I ever dared believe.

It is completely true. You were allowed to meet one person from outside your household as long as you stayed 2 metres apart. As you were allowed to beach, the park, on picnics etc etc on May 20, 2020 you were obviously going to be 2 metres from people that you did not know, and that was ok. Clearly the police were never going to enforce any of these rules.

Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.

This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/gallery/2020/may/25/uk-crowds-enjoy-may-sunshine-lockdown-eases-in-pictures

As pointed out frequently, at the time, the use of long lenses to foreshorten perspective and make people appear to be closer to each other than they really were, was a standard create-a-story tactic.

If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.

The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.

The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....

The point is though the end of May 2020 was not the "height of lockdown" and you could sit on a beach 2 metres from everyone and drink beer.

It's worth looking at the Bournemouth Beach on Google Earth aerial views. Those groynes are getting on for 200m apart. Those people are nothing like as close together as they appear.

I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical.
Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.

The Downing St garden, looking at Google maps, is around 30,000 sq ft. That’s room for more than 3,000 people all sitting 6’ apart!

Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.

And we are back on dodgy maths. If it were 300 x 100 ft, then you could array people 50 x 15, so 750, if its a simple grid. That may not be the best space filling model, but I struggle to get that to 3000.

Dodgy maths indeed, but not mine. To be 6’ from one another, a person needs to sit in the middle of 9 sq ft, 3’ x 3’. People 6’ apart can nearly touch their fingers if they stretch.

Either way, the garden is way bigger than required for a socially distanced event, for people who have spent the day working in close proximity to each other indoors.

I was working on a packing structure, buy maybe the grid is a poor choice? You've gone with the circles, but that will also leave some gaps - the circles have holes around them! This used to be a 1st yr chemistry practical.

And looking again - each person with a 3 ft radius occupies 3.141 x 3 x 3, about 28 square ft. So up to 1000, but that ignores the gaps...

No; each person needs to be in a circle of radius 3.3 feet - it's 2m social distancing remember. That is an area of 35 square feet per person. Then you need to work out the 2-d close packing of those circles touching, which would 'waste' some of the garden space. To a crude approximation you could put each person in a square of 2 x 2m which would be 44 sq feet per person. 681 people. So TT has it about right. But then there is no way to get at the drinkies or food. So you need to make sure each person can access an open lane to the food etc - and that has to be two-way, with passing places at least - but they are getting pissed, so make it two way. THat makes half as many. And deduct a bit for the garden walls, fountains, stachoo of Churchill, etc. We're getting down to 300-odd.

Hexagonal packing is the most efficient.

Area of a hexagon with side to side dimension of 2m is 3.46m² or 37.3 sq feet.


I do wonder if Boris actually reads any of his emails though. Government by WhatsApp innit?

Is that 'garden' just a patch of lawn? Are there no flowering shrubs, trees, flower beds and so on? Must reduce the available standing space, surely.

If we're assuming that people can stand still in a hexagonal lattice for a party, I think we can assume that they can stand in a flower bed!

Stereodog said:

Just been reading the comments under Michael Fabricant's tweets for a laugh. There are a surprising number of comments attacking Carrie for attending. This is actually entirely wrong as she is one of two people who can have a drink in the garden and still be within the law.

Because Fabricant claims it was a work do. Carrie doesn't work there

Freakishly low number of Welsh cases today. Last week was a catch up day, but it wasn't 10 days worth of catch up.

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Stocky said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Razedabode said:

Has HYUFD been on here yet telling us how Boris Johnson is still a winner?

Need you ask !!!!!!

HYUFD is clinging on to the belief that Johnson is still a winner. I think he's wrong but there you go. Seems to me that he is equally concerned that Truss doesn't succeed as this could put the party in a worse position - and he may be right about that. I heard the rumour the other day of Sunak and Hunt forming a pact to swerve this possibility.

Indeed, on current Tory members surveys there is at least a 50% chance if Truss gets to the final 2 she wins it.

Truss probably leads to an outright Labour majority not the hung parliament of current polls. There is no guarantee removing Boris sees Sunak succeed him

Hmm, you seem to have returned to speaking in absolutes, based upon superficial popularity/recognition indicators. Unless you have a supernatural ability to see alternative universes, Truss is no more certain to result in a Labour majority than if Bozo stays in place. She may prove to be an empty suit when it comes to governing just like Johnson has, but maybe not. If she were to present a couple of years of competent government then she might well go on to win. Ditto for Sunak. I will never vote Conservative again while The Clown is in charge, but could be persuaded to if someone who can demonstrate competence replaces the current idiot.

Out of interest, who would be your preferred choice?

Is somebody waiting for BoZo to deny on camera he was there, before releasing a picture?

LostPassword said:

I remember there being comment here during the Greek phase of the Euro crisis that one problem they had was that everyone cheated tax rules as much as possible (and wasn't it great that Britain was a much better country where that didn't happen).

Things like the many lockdown parties at Downing Street are incredibly corrosive and undermine the generally law-abiding culture we have. If there are no consequences then we can expect the willingness of the British public to voluntarily follow laws and rules will be considerably eroded.

I honestly don't think government expected the rules to be followed to the extent that they were (and ISTR that there was considerable surprise in government at how rule-abiding everyone was).
It's a good thing that we're generally rule-following. But for that to continue we need (as well as a leadership caste which follows its own rules) rules which command respect. The last two years may result in our culture of rule-following taking a knock.
I am not a natural rule follower, but I don't regard this as a positive development.

BBC

Martin Reynolds to continue in his role and he has the full confidence of the Prime Minister

The question should be who has confidence in the PM

StuartDickson said:

Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

Javid is Kendal from Succession. Superficially plausible successor who fundamentally lacks balls.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Cookie said:

OldKingCole said:

Flatlander said:

Carnyx said:

turbotubbs said:

turbotubbs said:

Sandpit said:

turbotubbs said:

Sandpit said:

Cookie said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

Anabobazina said:

Was that ever true? Really? That you could stand two metres from someone if you didn’t know them but not if you did know them? It’s so long ago and much water has flowed under Westminster Bridge, but if that were ever true, it’s even more bonkers than I ever dared believe.

It is completely true. You were allowed to meet one person from outside your household as long as you stayed 2 metres apart. As you were allowed to beach, the park, on picnics etc etc on May 20, 2020 you were obviously going to be 2 metres from people that you did not know, and that was ok. Clearly the police were never going to enforce any of these rules.

Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.

This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/gallery/2020/may/25/uk-crowds-enjoy-may-sunshine-lockdown-eases-in-pictures

As pointed out frequently, at the time, the use of long lenses to foreshorten perspective and make people appear to be closer to each other than they really were, was a standard create-a-story tactic.

If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.

The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.

The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....

The point is though the end of May 2020 was not the "height of lockdown" and you could sit on a beach 2 metres from everyone and drink beer.

It's worth looking at the Bournemouth Beach on Google Earth aerial views. Those groynes are getting on for 200m apart. Those people are nothing like as close together as they appear.

I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical.
Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.

The Downing St garden, looking at Google maps, is around 30,000 sq ft. That’s room for more than 3,000 people all sitting 6’ apart!

Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.

And we are back on dodgy maths. If it were 300 x 100 ft, then you could array people 50 x 15, so 750, if its a simple grid. That may not be the best space filling model, but I struggle to get that to 3000.

Dodgy maths indeed, but not mine. To be 6’ from one another, a person needs to sit in the middle of 9 sq ft, 3’ x 3’. People 6’ apart can nearly touch their fingers if they stretch.

Either way, the garden is way bigger than required for a socially distanced event, for people who have spent the day working in close proximity to each other indoors.

I was working on a packing structure, buy maybe the grid is a poor choice? You've gone with the circles, but that will also leave some gaps - the circles have holes around them! This used to be a 1st yr chemistry practical.

And looking again - each person with a 3 ft radius occupies 3.141 x 3 x 3, about 28 square ft. So up to 1000, but that ignores the gaps...

No; each person needs to be in a circle of radius 3.3 feet - it's 2m social distancing remember. That is an area of 35 square feet per person. Then you need to work out the 2-d close packing of those circles touching, which would 'waste' some of the garden space. To a crude approximation you could put each person in a square of 2 x 2m which would be 44 sq feet per person. 681 people. So TT has it about right. But then there is no way to get at the drinkies or food. So you need to make sure each person can access an open lane to the food etc - and that has to be two-way, with passing places at least - but they are getting pissed, so make it two way. THat makes half as many. And deduct a bit for the garden walls, fountains, stachoo of Churchill, etc. We're getting down to 300-odd.

Hexagonal packing is the most efficient.

Area of a hexagon with side to side dimension of 2m is 3.46m² or 37.3 sq feet.


I do wonder if Boris actually reads any of his emails though. Government by WhatsApp innit?

Is that 'garden' just a patch of lawn? Are there no flowering shrubs, trees, flower beds and so on? Must reduce the available standing space, surely.

If we're assuming that people can stand still in a hexagonal lattice for a party, I think we can assume that they can stand in a flower bed!

Have you considered stacking them vertically?

I might eventually fall into a flower-bed at a Bring a Bottle party, but I don't think I'd start off standing in one!

Johnson's just really stupid indeed isn't he. Its not like Cameron or May were paragons of moral virtue. But they're have known better than breaking their own rules at an event attended by dozens of people who might one day tell the press about it.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1480631102985457668

@IanDunt 100% that. I once had to get some copy out of him and it became clear during the dribbled excuses & telephonic Lorem Ipsum that ensued that month that he had no object permanence. The brain area that helps most of us think about absent, potential or future things is… missing.

@IanDunt He would lie, and being told he was on speaker with me and my editor, would lie again, in the same way as a toddler will lie about not having the biscuit it has in its hand at that very moment. It was like trying to coach custard towards GCSE Maths.

@IanDunt The privilege has always meant that his polystyrene-packing level, stupidity was masked, excused, camouflaged. People thought, ‘He just doesn’t care, like Rochester!’ In fact, he just doesn’t know, like algae.

@IanDunt This, more than anything else, is why he is Britain Trump. Because the wealth and privilege people see is the poncey topiary in front of a near-bottomless chasm of wobbling, thought-free jelly.
https://twitter.com/MattPotter/status/1480636605849346051

Scott_xP said:

Stereodog said:

Just been reading the comments under Michael Fabricant's tweets for a laugh. There are a surprising number of comments attacking Carrie for attending. This is actually entirely wrong as she is one of two people who can have a drink in the garden and still be within the law.

Because Fabricant claims it was a work do. Carrie doesn't work there

How long before we can all sing:

"Carrie doesn't live here anymore
Carrie used to room on the second floor
Sorry that she left no forwarding address
That was known to me"

Carnyx said:

Flatlander said:

Carnyx said:

turbotubbs said:

turbotubbs said:

Sandpit said:

turbotubbs said:

Sandpit said:

Cookie said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

Anabobazina said:

Was that ever true? Really? That you could stand two metres from someone if you didn’t know them but not if you did know them? It’s so long ago and much water has flowed under Westminster Bridge, but if that were ever true, it’s even more bonkers than I ever dared believe.

It is completely true. You were allowed to meet one person from outside your household as long as you stayed 2 metres apart. As you were allowed to beach, the park, on picnics etc etc on May 20, 2020 you were obviously going to be 2 metres from people that you did not know, and that was ok. Clearly the police were never going to enforce any of these rules.

Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.

This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/gallery/2020/may/25/uk-crowds-enjoy-may-sunshine-lockdown-eases-in-pictures

As pointed out frequently, at the time, the use of long lenses to foreshorten perspective and make people appear to be closer to each other than they really were, was a standard create-a-story tactic.

If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.

The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.

The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....

The point is though the end of May 2020 was not the "height of lockdown" and you could sit on a beach 2 metres from everyone and drink beer.

It's worth looking at the Bournemouth Beach on Google Earth aerial views. Those groynes are getting on for 200m apart. Those people are nothing like as close together as they appear.

I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical.
Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.

The Downing St garden, looking at Google maps, is around 30,000 sq ft. That’s room for more than 3,000 people all sitting 6’ apart!

Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.

And we are back on dodgy maths. If it were 300 x 100 ft, then you could array people 50 x 15, so 750, if its a simple grid. That may not be the best space filling model, but I struggle to get that to 3000.

Dodgy maths indeed, but not mine. To be 6’ from one another, a person needs to sit in the middle of 9 sq ft, 3’ x 3’. People 6’ apart can nearly touch their fingers if they stretch.

Either way, the garden is way bigger than required for a socially distanced event, for people who have spent the day working in close proximity to each other indoors.

I was working on a packing structure, buy maybe the grid is a poor choice? You've gone with the circles, but that will also leave some gaps - the circles have holes around them! This used to be a 1st yr chemistry practical.

And looking again - each person with a 3 ft radius occupies 3.141 x 3 x 3, about 28 square ft. So up to 1000, but that ignores the gaps...

No; each person needs to be in a circle of radius 3.3 feet - it's 2m social distancing remember. That is an area of 35 square feet per person. Then you need to work out the 2-d close packing of those circles touching, which would 'waste' some of the garden space. To a crude approximation you could put each person in a square of 2 x 2m which would be 44 sq feet per person. 681 people. So TT has it about right. But then there is no way to get at the drinkies or food. So you need to make sure each person can access an open lane to the food etc - and that has to be two-way, with passing places at least - but they are getting pissed, so make it two way. THat makes half as many. And deduct a bit for the garden walls, fountains, stachoo of Churchill, etc. We're getting down to 300-odd.

Hexagonal packing is the most efficient.

Area of a hexagon with side to side dimension of 2m is 3.46m² or 37.3 sq feet.


I do wonder if Boris actually reads any of his emails though. Government by WhatsApp innit?

Thanks! I once worked it out for myself in 3-D from very first principles (considerably surprising a protein crystallographer friend) so it's a luxury to have it done for me. The problem now however becomes the access lanes but if you don't mind a wiggly lane we are fine and you can add a few more dozen.

Ha, yes, it is a long time since I had to work out packing efficiency. Allotropes of iron and steel and all that...

I suppose they could also have brought in some fruit picking ladders to increase the venue capacity.

Given it was BYO, I suppose there would have been no need to have gaps as long as the loading was done efficiently. It would also have to be done so that nobody was next to more than one person they knew.

Roger said:

OT. I just heard on radio 4 that 50% of all Europeans will have been infected by the Omicron virus in the next six weeks.

Tell me I misheard.......

I don't think you did. Similar report in the Graun:

A west-to-east “tidal wave” of Omicron infections risks submerging health systems across Europe, the World Health Organization has said, warning that more than half the region’s population will be infected with the variant in the next two months.

Hans Kluge, the WHO’s Europe director, said the region had recorded more than 7m new cases in the first week of 2022, double the rate a fortnight previously, with more than 1% of the population catching Covid-19 each week in 26 countries.

Kluge said the variant had now been reported in 50 of the Europe region’s 53 states and was becoming dominant in western Europe. “At this rate, more than 50% of the population in the region will be infected with Omicron in the next six to eight weeks”, he said – a scale of transmission he described as unprecedented.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/11/omicron-europe-tidal-wave-who

StuartDickson said:

Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter

Fwiw the chances of Johnson resigning are virtually nil. But he could be fatally damaged here, forced to drag his political corpse through the next few months or years of party politics. And honestly, for critics of the government, that might be a better option.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1480876034568474631

FWIW talking to a former SPAD he reckons Boris Johnson's actual moment of high danger for him is the MPs pay rise which is due in April

1) If it goes ahead then it is going to look horrific as the cost of living crisis kicks up to a new level

or

2) He cancels the pay rise for Tory MPs which will lead to much grumbling and many letters to Sir Graham Brady.

OT Mrs Thatcher was supervised by Dorothy Hodgkin, the Nobel Prize-winning crystallographer. Probably our last leader to have known how to pack party guests like atoms, unless Margaret Beckett was ever temporarily in charge for the odd day or so.

Scott_xP said:

Fwiw the chances of Johnson resigning are virtually nil. But he could be fatally damaged here, forced to drag his political corpse through the next few months or years of party politics. And honestly, for critics of the government, that might be a better option.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1480876034568474631

Those putting their own desires at the expense of the country's best interest are sad

How long before Boris decides that the only way he can get out of this latest scrape is to blame it all on Carrie?

TheScreamingEagles said:

FWIW talking to a former SPAD he reckons Boris Johnson's actual moment of high danger for him is the MPs pay rise which is due in April

1) If it goes ahead then it is going to look horrific as the cost of living crisis kicks up to a new level

or

2) He cancels the pay rise for Tory MPs which will lead to much grumbling and many letters to Sir Graham Brady.

does the MP pay rise even reflect current inflation rates? I don't think it does which means it's a reasonable pay rise but it's going to be impossible to pay it.

Pulpstar said:

maaarsh said:

Freakishly low number of Welsh cases today. Last week was a catch up day, but it wasn't 10 days worth of catch up.

It's a complete change in methodology. Only PCRs are now being counted and as you don't need one if you're asymptomatic they aren't included in these figures. There's a seperate lateral flow tab but they don't have up to date data from this. So this is now essentially a symptomatic case count rather than infection count.

Ha, Drakeford obviously wanted to join the case reduction party and switching stats in the middle of a claimed crisis obviously the easy way to do it.

KPMG the new Arthur Anderson?

KPMG’s chief executive has admitted that the accounting firm misled the industry watchdog over its audit of Carillion, the collapsed outsourcer.

In a statement released on the first day of a five-week disciplinary tribunal over the behaviour of the firm and six former employees, Jon Holt said it was “clear” that “unacceptable” misconduct had occurred.

The tribunal heard yesterday that former KPMG accountants had created fake documents to mislead regulators about work completed during their audit of Carillion.

During an inspection of KPMG’s 2016 audit by the Financial Reporting Council, the watchdog raised concerns about the apparently small percentage of Carillion construction services contracts for British projects that had been tested by auditors. Lawyers for the regulator alleged that auditors subsequently had created a new version of documents showing the audit of the contracts and then had “passed it off” as a contemporaneous record.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/we-misled-financial-reporting-council-over-carillion-audit-admits-kpmg-chief-jon-holt-hdcd9jlwq

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Those putting their own desires at the expense of the country's best interest are sad

but still PM for now...

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FWIW talking to a former SPAD he reckons Boris Johnson's actual moment of high danger for him is the MPs pay rise which is due in April

1) If it goes ahead then it is going to look horrific as the cost of living crisis kicks up to a new level

or

2) He cancels the pay rise for Tory MPs which will lead to much grumbling and many letters to Sir Graham Brady.

does the MP pay rise even reflect current inflation rates? I don't think it does which means it's a reasonable pay rise but it's going to be impossible to pay it.

2.7% is the expected increase which shakes out as a pay rise of £2,200 for every MP.

HYUFD said:

eek said:

IanB2 said:

StuartDickson said:

Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter

Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

Which Baker might win if he gets to the membership vote

Oh I know that - the irony is that he's very likely to lose his seat at the next election (Wycombe is tending Labour for obvious reasons).

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

Anabobazina said:

NickPalmer said:

Idle reflection - I'm sure that if Corbyn was PM we'd have various problems and controversies. But holding dodgy parties would definitely not feature - there are times for his sort of Cromwellian rectitude, and mid-pandemic is one of them.

More seriously - perhaps we're moving to the point where a Labour VONC would actually make sense. Normally they will just get voted down and the Opposition will look ineffective. But in this situation there will be Tory MPs who will be quite uncomfortable in voting that they really do have confidence in the PM, and if they do it can be used against them if he does subsequently need to resign.

Is this the very same Jezza Corbyn who himself broke lockdown rules at a posh N1 dinner party? Shurley shome mistake.

I guess that there are a couple of differences - firstly, that he didn't set the rules and, secondly, that Corbyn did at least admit it and apologise (albeit it was very hard to deny).

I don't say that to defend Corbyn, and don't accept Nick's assertion that Corbyn would have kept his nose clean in that way. But what has turned this existential for Johnson is (i) the sheer egregiousness of setting up the drinks tables in the garden at the very moment Oliver Dowden was inside, laying out the rules for the public - that says something awful about the way Johnson's mind works; and (ii) the blatant lies - it is Johnson's default setting to lie and it is comletely unclear to anyone how he rows back from having said in the Commons that he was shocked and appalled to learn of possible parties in Number 10 when he knew he had attended and indeed apparently instigated one such event ("we thought..." from Private Secretary).

Oh yes, I don’t mean to compare the two events. I just tire of Nick’s regular presentation of Corbo as some sort of hair-shirted saint.