Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Johnson exit date betting moves sharply to 2022 – politicalbetting.com

1246710

Comments

  • eek said:

    FWIW talking to a former SPAD he reckons Boris Johnson's actual moment of high danger for him is the MPs pay rise which is due in April

    1) If it goes ahead then it is going to look horrific as the cost of living crisis kicks up to a new level

    or

    2) He cancels the pay rise for Tory MPs which will lead to much grumbling and many letters to Sir Graham Brady.

    does the MP pay rise even reflect current inflation rates? I don't think it does which means it's a reasonable pay rise but it's going to be impossible to pay it.
    2.7% is the expected increase which shakes out as a pay rise of £2,200 for every MP.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    Which Baker might win if he gets to the membership vote
    Cue much Baker fawning and sycophancy.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    Which Baker might win if he gets to the membership vote
    Oh I know that - the irony is that he's very likely to lose his seat at the next election (Wycombe is tending Labour for obvious reasons).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715

    Scott_xP said:

    Fwiw the chances of Johnson resigning are virtually nil. But he could be fatally damaged here, forced to drag his political corpse through the next few months or years of party politics. And honestly, for critics of the government, that might be a better option.
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1480876034568474631

    It is undoubtedly in the interests of the Labour Party, the SNP and the Liberal Democrats for Johnson to stay in office.
    I've never voted Tory and would not now consider doing so but even if it is the interests of the Opposition for the current PM to stay in office it's hardly in the greater interest of the country as a whole.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598

    Idle reflection - I'm sure that if Corbyn was PM we'd have various problems and controversies. But holding dodgy parties would definitely not feature - there are times for his sort of Cromwellian rectitude, and mid-pandemic is one of them.

    More seriously - perhaps we're moving to the point where a Labour VONC would actually make sense. Normally they will just get voted down and the Opposition will look ineffective. But in this situation there will be Tory MPs who will be quite uncomfortable in voting that they really do have confidence in the PM, and if they do it can be used against them if he does subsequently need to resign.

    Is this the very same Jezza Corbyn who himself broke lockdown rules at a posh N1 dinner party? Shurley shome mistake.
    I guess that there are a couple of differences - firstly, that he didn't set the rules and, secondly, that Corbyn did at least admit it and apologise (albeit it was very hard to deny).

    I don't say that to defend Corbyn, and don't accept Nick's assertion that Corbyn would have kept his nose clean in that way. But what has turned this existential for Johnson is (i) the sheer egregiousness of setting up the drinks tables in the garden at the very moment Oliver Dowden was inside, laying out the rules for the public - that says something awful about the way Johnson's mind works; and (ii) the blatant lies - it is Johnson's default setting to lie and it is comletely unclear to anyone how he rows back from having said in the Commons that he was shocked and appalled to learn of possible parties in Number 10 when he knew he had attended and indeed apparently instigated one such event ("we thought..." from Private Secretary).
    Oh yes, I don’t mean to compare the two events. I just tire of Nick’s regular presentation of Corbo as some sort of hair-shirted saint.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728

    How long before Boris decides that the only way he can get out of this latest scrape is to blame it all on Carrie?

    Maybe he suggested it last night...


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,597

    Roger said:

    OT. I just heard on radio 4 that 50% of all Europeans will have been infected by the Omicron virus in the next six weeks.

    Tell me I misheard.......

    Sounds about right.
    Due to the infectiousness of Omicron, there seems to be virtually no way of blocking it. Even Chinese style lockdowns are not enough.

    The trajectory is clear in many European countries - very, very fast increase in cases.

    However...

    In earlier "waves" that completely overwhelmed areas (parts of Italy, Brazil, for example) the total numbers infected didn't reach 50%. As measured by antibody surveys afterwards.

    Why this is, is up for debate. And whether this holds true for the Winne-The-Pooh variant, is anyones guess.

    My guess is that the peak will be before 50%. A guess. That and £2.50 will buy you a coffee. In some places...

    We seem to have reached peak infection in this country. The difference between this country and some others in Europe is largely that the vaccinated and boosted take-up in the older groups is very high. The metric to look at is not overall numbers, but those who are most vulnerable.

    Which will reduce the casualties from this wave massively. The increase in hospitalisations for the unvaccinated children shows an... "echo" of what we avoided.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087
    edited January 2022
    Cookie said:

    I remember there being comment here during the Greek phase of the Euro crisis that one problem they had was that everyone cheated tax rules as much as possible (and wasn't it great that Britain was a much better country where that didn't happen).

    Things like the many lockdown parties at Downing Street are incredibly corrosive and undermine the generally law-abiding culture we have. If there are no consequences then we can expect the willingness of the British public to voluntarily follow laws and rules will be considerably eroded.

    I honestly don't think government expected the rules to be followed to the extent that they were (and ISTR that there was considerable surprise in government at how rule-abiding everyone was).
    It's a good thing that we're generally rule-following. But for that to continue we need (as well as a leadership caste which follows its own rules) rules which command respect. The last two years may result in our culture of rule-following taking a knock.
    I am not a natural rule follower, but I don't regard this as a positive development.
    We may get a test before too much longer of whether or not the capacity of the public to put up with petty regulations is infinite. Sturgeon has been flying a kite about making masking a long-term (permanent?) measure in Scotland.

    In an interview with STV, Sturgeon apparently suggested that learning to live with the virus still involved some longer-term adjustments to normal life. She said:

    Sometimes when you hear people talk about learning to live with Covid, what seems to be suggested is that one morning we’ll wake up and not have to worry about it anymore, and not have to do anything to try to contain and control it.

    That’s not what I mean when I say ‘learning to live with it’. Instead, what we will have to ask ourselves is what adaptations to pre-pandemic life – face coverings, for example – might be required in the longer-term to enable us to live with it with far fewer protective measures.


    No interest in getting rid of all the rules, you will note, just having fewer of them. She's showing dangerous signs of adopting the Susan Michie approach to public health advocated last Summer, i.e. that masks and social distancing should continue forever. Note also the shift in language from 'restrictions' to 'protections'. All very iSAGE.

    Down here we have a careless, cavalier buffoon in charge. Up there they have a sanctimonious, nit-picking council health and safety bureaucrat. God help the lot of us.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,457
    edited January 2022

    FWIW talking to a former SPAD he reckons Boris Johnson's actual moment of high danger for him is the MPs pay rise which is due in April

    1) If it goes ahead then it is going to look horrific as the cost of living crisis kicks up to a new level

    or

    2) He cancels the pay rise for Tory MPs which will lead to much grumbling and many letters to Sir Graham Brady.

    Starmer has already called for the MPs pay rise to be cancelled due to the 'cost of living crisis' faced by 'ordinary' people.
    A smart move, I think, to get in first.
  • OT the Windows search icon now pops up a link to a Covid vaccination tracker.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,243

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Was that ever true? Really? That you could stand two metres from someone if you didn’t know them but not if you did know them? It’s so long ago and much water has flowed under Westminster Bridge, but if that were ever true, it’s even more bonkers than I ever dared believe.

    It is completely true. You were allowed to meet one person from outside your household as long as you stayed 2 metres apart. As you were allowed to beach, the park, on picnics etc etc on May 20, 2020 you were obviously going to be 2 metres from people that you did not know, and that was ok. Clearly the police were never going to enforce any of these rules.

    Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.

    This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/gallery/2020/may/25/uk-crowds-enjoy-may-sunshine-lockdown-eases-in-pictures
    As pointed out frequently, at the time, the use of long lenses to foreshorten perspective and make people appear to be closer to each other than they really were, was a standard create-a-story tactic.

    If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.

    The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.

    The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....
    The point is though the end of May 2020 was not the "height of lockdown" and you could sit on a beach 2 metres from everyone and drink beer.
    It's worth looking at the Bournemouth Beach on Google Earth aerial views. Those groynes are getting on for 200m apart. Those people are nothing like as close together as they appear.

    I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical.
    Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.
    The Downing St garden, looking at Google maps, is around 30,000 sq ft. That’s room for more than 3,000 people all sitting 6’ apart!

    Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.
    And we are back on dodgy maths. If it were 300 x 100 ft, then you could array people 50 x 15, so 750, if its a simple grid. That may not be the best space filling model, but I struggle to get that to 3000.
    Dodgy maths indeed, but not mine. To be 6’ from one another, a person needs to sit in the middle of 9 sq ft, 3’ x 3’. People 6’ apart can nearly touch their fingers if they stretch.

    Either way, the garden is way bigger than required for a socially distanced event, for people who have spent the day working in close proximity to each other indoors.
    I was working on a packing structure, buy maybe the grid is a poor choice? You've gone with the circles, but that will also leave some gaps - the circles have holes around them! This used to be a 1st yr chemistry practical.
    And looking again - each person with a 3 ft radius occupies 3.141 x 3 x 3, about 28 square ft. So up to 1000, but that ignores the gaps...
    No; each person needs to be in a circle of radius 3.3 feet - it's 2m social distancing remember. That is an area of 35 square feet per person. Then you need to work out the 2-d close packing of those circles touching, which would 'waste' some of the garden space. To a crude approximation you could put each person in a square of 2 x 2m which would be 44 sq feet per person. 681 people. So TT has it about right. But then there is no way to get at the drinkies or food. So you need to make sure each person can access an open lane to the food etc - and that has to be two-way, with passing places at least - but they are getting pissed, so make it two way. THat makes half as many. And deduct a bit for the garden walls, fountains, stachoo of Churchill, etc. We're getting down to 300-odd.
    Hexagonal packing is the most efficient.

    Area of a hexagon with side to side dimension of 2m is 3.46m2 or 37.3 sq feet.

    I do wonder if Boris actually reads any of his emails though. Government by WhatsApp innit?
    Someone ought to contact Scientific American and get a piece in 'Mathematical Recreations'

    "Effective packing algorithms in a Downing Street garden." ;)
    If it's not in the Christmas bmj, I'll be surprised (there's even an epi angle - due to the backdrop of Covid NPIs)
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    Which Baker might win if he gets to the membership vote
    Oh I know that - the irony is that he's very likely to lose his seat at the next election (Wycombe is tending Labour for obvious reasons).
    Electoral Calculus current prediction:

    Wycombe: Overview

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Steve Baker (CON)
    County/Area: Buckinghamshire (South East)
    Electorate: 78,098
    Turnout: 70.1%

    Chance of winning
    CON
    32%
    LAB
    67%
    LIB
    0%
    Green
    0%
    OTH
    0%
    Reform
    0%
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    eek said:

    FWIW talking to a former SPAD he reckons Boris Johnson's actual moment of high danger for him is the MPs pay rise which is due in April

    1) If it goes ahead then it is going to look horrific as the cost of living crisis kicks up to a new level

    or

    2) He cancels the pay rise for Tory MPs which will lead to much grumbling and many letters to Sir Graham Brady.

    does the MP pay rise even reflect current inflation rates? I don't think it does which means it's a reasonable pay rise but it's going to be impossible to pay it.
    2.7% is the expected increase which shakes out as a pay rise of £2,200 for every MP.
    Yep - not even inflation
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Stocky said:

    Roger said:

    OT. I just heard on radio 4 that 50% of all Europeans will have been infected by the Omicron virus in the next six weeks.

    Tell me I misheard.......

    I did tongue-in-cheek say a week or so ago that we are approaching a world with state sanctions still present designed to protect everyone when everyone has already had it.
    30% might never 'really' get it iirc the UCL research from yesterday on t-cells and common colds and covid.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    Which Baker might win if he gets to the membership vote
    Oh I know that - the irony is that he's very likely to lose his seat at the next election (Wycombe is tending Labour for obvious reasons).
    Electoral Calculus current prediction:

    Wycombe: Overview

    PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON

    MP at 2019: Steve Baker (CON)
    County/Area: Buckinghamshire (South East)
    Electorate: 78,098
    Turnout: 70.1%

    Chance of winning
    CON
    32%
    LAB
    67%
    LIB
    0%
    Green
    0%
    OTH
    0%
    Reform
    0%
    It's of little consequence. If elected leader he could parachute himself into a safe seat at an election.
    Not that he'll become leader.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    pigeon said:

    Cookie said:

    I remember there being comment here during the Greek phase of the Euro crisis that one problem they had was that everyone cheated tax rules as much as possible (and wasn't it great that Britain was a much better country where that didn't happen).

    Things like the many lockdown parties at Downing Street are incredibly corrosive and undermine the generally law-abiding culture we have. If there are no consequences then we can expect the willingness of the British public to voluntarily follow laws and rules will be considerably eroded.

    I honestly don't think government expected the rules to be followed to the extent that they were (and ISTR that there was considerable surprise in government at how rule-abiding everyone was).
    It's a good thing that we're generally rule-following. But for that to continue we need (as well as a leadership caste which follows its own rules) rules which command respect. The last two years may result in our culture of rule-following taking a knock.
    I am not a natural rule follower, but I don't regard this as a positive development.
    We may get a test before too much longer of whether or not the capacity of the public to put up with petty regulations is infinite. Sturgeon has been flying a kite about making masking a long-term (permanent?) measure in Scotland.

    In an interview with STV, Sturgeon apparently suggested that learning to live with the virus still involved some longer-term adjustments to normal life. She said:

    Sometimes when you hear people talk about learning to live with Covid, what seems to be suggested is that one morning we’ll wake up and not have to worry about it anymore, and not have to do anything to try to contain and control it.

    That’s not what I mean when I say ‘learning to live with it’. Instead, what we will have to ask ourselves is what adaptations to pre-pandemic life – face coverings, for example – might be required in the longer-term to enable us to live with it with far fewer protective measures.


    No interest in getting rid of all the rules, you will note, just having fewer of them. She's showing dangerous signs of adopting the Susan Michie approach to public health advocated last Summer, i.e. that masks and social distancing should continue forever. Note also the shift in language from 'restrictions' to 'protections'. All very iSAGE.

    Down here we have a careless, cavalier buffoon in charge. Up there they have a sanctimonious, nit-picking council health and safety bureaucrat. God help the lot of us.
    The crunch point for Sturgeon, and Drakeford, is going to be the Six Nations.

    Agreed that MP pay rises is possibly the crunch point for Johnson. Members are not exempt from the laws of inflation, and even though they no longer vote on their own pay, it’s still a huge political issue.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Why are the current betting prices so out of step with Baxter?

    Probability of possible outcomes

    Labour majority 44%
    Lab minority 43%
    Conservative majority 7%
    No overall control 6%

    Why is Lab Maj still 6/1?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598

    FWIW talking to a former SPAD he reckons Boris Johnson's actual moment of high danger for him is the MPs pay rise which is due in April

    1) If it goes ahead then it is going to look horrific as the cost of living crisis kicks up to a new level

    or

    2) He cancels the pay rise for Tory MPs which will lead to much grumbling and many letters to Sir Graham Brady.

    Is Sir Graham Brady Old Lady allowed to draft a letter to himself?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,333
    eek said:

    eek said:

    FWIW talking to a former SPAD he reckons Boris Johnson's actual moment of high danger for him is the MPs pay rise which is due in April

    1) If it goes ahead then it is going to look horrific as the cost of living crisis kicks up to a new level

    or

    2) He cancels the pay rise for Tory MPs which will lead to much grumbling and many letters to Sir Graham Brady.

    does the MP pay rise even reflect current inflation rates? I don't think it does which means it's a reasonable pay rise but it's going to be impossible to pay it.
    2.7% is the expected increase which shakes out as a pay rise of £2,200 for every MP.
    Yep - not even inflation
    I notice that the pensioners rise is only 3.1%, also not even inflation.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    Why are the current betting prices so out of step with Baxter?

    Probability of possible outcomes

    Labour majority 44%
    Lab minority 43%
    Conservative majority 7%
    No overall control 6%

    Why is Lab Maj still 6/1?

    Is that a serious question?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.

    I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598
    maaarsh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    maaarsh said:

    Freakishly low number of Welsh cases today. Last week was a catch up day, but it wasn't 10 days worth of catch up.

    It's a complete change in methodology. Only PCRs are now being counted and as you don't need one if you're asymptomatic they aren't included in these figures. There's a seperate lateral flow tab but they don't have up to date data from this. So this is now essentially a symptomatic case count rather than infection count.
    Ha, Drakeford obviously wanted to join the case reduction party and switching stats in the middle of a claimed crisis obviously the easy way to do it.
    Lol. The Drake’s a fake?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Johnson's just really stupid indeed isn't he. Its not like Cameron or May were paragons of moral virtue. But they're have known better than breaking their own rules at an event attended by dozens of people who might one day tell the press about it.
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1480631102985457668

    @IanDunt 100% that. I once had to get some copy out of him and it became clear during the dribbled excuses & telephonic Lorem Ipsum that ensued that month that he had no object permanence. The brain area that helps most of us think about absent, potential or future things is… missing.

    @IanDunt He would lie, and being told he was on speaker with me and my editor, would lie again, in the same way as a toddler will lie about not having the biscuit it has in its hand at that very moment. It was like trying to coach custard towards GCSE Maths.

    @IanDunt The privilege has always meant that his polystyrene-packing level, stupidity was masked, excused, camouflaged. People thought, ‘He just doesn’t care, like Rochester!’ In fact, he just doesn’t know, like algae.

    @IanDunt This, more than anything else, is why he is Britain Trump. Because the wealth and privilege people see is the poncey topiary in front of a near-bottomless chasm of wobbling, thought-free jelly.

    https://twitter.com/MattPotter/status/1480636605849346051

    Life goals: to be as efficiently and creatively brutal as Dunt at scathing takedowns.
    Most of those aren't Ian Dunt they are Matt Potter see https://twitter.com/MattPotter/status/1480635459923496967

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    And off she goes...
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    MrEd said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.

    I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
    Harper has run before and clearly wants to run again.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,728
    dixiedean said:

    Why is she dressed like the High Priestess in a Hammer horror?

    And it only cost 700 quid...
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    maaarsh said:

    Why are the current betting prices so out of step with Baxter?

    Probability of possible outcomes

    Labour majority 44%
    Lab minority 43%
    Conservative majority 7%
    No overall control 6%

    Why is Lab Maj still 6/1?

    Is that a serious question?
    Yes.

    Please explain it to me in words of one syllable. I’m a bit simple.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Was that ever true? Really? That you could stand two metres from someone if you didn’t know them but not if you did know them? It’s so long ago and much water has flowed under Westminster Bridge, but if that were ever true, it’s even more bonkers than I ever dared believe.

    It is completely true. You were allowed to meet one person from outside your household as long as you stayed 2 metres apart. As you were allowed to beach, the park, on picnics etc etc on May 20, 2020 you were obviously going to be 2 metres from people that you did not know, and that was ok. Clearly the police were never going to enforce any of these rules.

    Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.

    This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/gallery/2020/may/25/uk-crowds-enjoy-may-sunshine-lockdown-eases-in-pictures
    As pointed out frequently, at the time, the use of long lenses to foreshorten perspective and make people appear to be closer to each other than they really were, was a standard create-a-story tactic.

    If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.

    The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.

    The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....
    The point is though the end of May 2020 was not the "height of lockdown" and you could sit on a beach 2 metres from everyone and drink beer.
    It's worth looking at the Bournemouth Beach on Google Earth aerial views. Those groynes are getting on for 200m apart. Those people are nothing like as close together as they appear.

    I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical.
    Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.
    The Downing St garden, looking at Google maps, is around 30,000 sq ft. That’s room for more than 3,000 people all sitting 6’ apart!

    Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.
    And we are back on dodgy maths. If it were 300 x 100 ft, then you could array people 50 x 15, so 750, if its a simple grid. That may not be the best space filling model, but I struggle to get that to 3000.
    Dodgy maths indeed, but not mine. To be 6’ from one another, a person needs to sit in the middle of 9 sq ft, 3’ x 3’. People 6’ apart can nearly touch their fingers if they stretch.

    Either way, the garden is way bigger than required for a socially distanced event, for people who have spent the day working in close proximity to each other indoors.
    I was working on a packing structure, buy maybe the grid is a poor choice? You've gone with the circles, but that will also leave some gaps - the circles have holes around them! This used to be a 1st yr chemistry practical.
    And looking again - each person with a 3 ft radius occupies 3.141 x 3 x 3, about 28 square ft. So up to 1000, but that ignores the gaps...
    No; each person needs to be in a circle of radius 3.3 feet - it's 2m social distancing remember. That is an area of 35 square feet per person. Then you need to work out the 2-d close packing of those circles touching, which would 'waste' some of the garden space. To a crude approximation you could put each person in a square of 2 x 2m which would be 44 sq feet per person. 681 people. So TT has it about right. But then there is no way to get at the drinkies or food. So you need to make sure each person can access an open lane to the food etc - and that has to be two-way, with passing places at least - but they are getting pissed, so make it two way. THat makes half as many. And deduct a bit for the garden walls, fountains, stachoo of Churchill, etc. We're getting down to 300-odd.
    Although this is a bit of a laugh, we genuinely were forced to do calculations like this to be allowed back into our chemistry research labs in July 2020. This despite the huge turnover of air via the fume hoods.
    One thing the pandemic has been is one enormous pain the arse. One petty annoyance after another. For everyone except Number Ten.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Johnson's just really stupid indeed isn't he. Its not like Cameron or May were paragons of moral virtue. But they're have known better than breaking their own rules at an event attended by dozens of people who might one day tell the press about it.
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1480631102985457668

    @IanDunt 100% that. I once had to get some copy out of him and it became clear during the dribbled excuses & telephonic Lorem Ipsum that ensued that month that he had no object permanence. The brain area that helps most of us think about absent, potential or future things is… missing.

    @IanDunt He would lie, and being told he was on speaker with me and my editor, would lie again, in the same way as a toddler will lie about not having the biscuit it has in its hand at that very moment. It was like trying to coach custard towards GCSE Maths.

    @IanDunt The privilege has always meant that his polystyrene-packing level, stupidity was masked, excused, camouflaged. People thought, ‘He just doesn’t care, like Rochester!’ In fact, he just doesn’t know, like algae.

    @IanDunt This, more than anything else, is why he is Britain Trump. Because the wealth and privilege people see is the poncey topiary in front of a near-bottomless chasm of wobbling, thought-free jelly.

    https://twitter.com/MattPotter/status/1480636605849346051

    Life goals: to be as efficiently and creatively brutal as Dunt at scathing takedowns.
    But it's pure stupidity. I am no fan of Boris and hope he is replaced rapidly. But you don't get scholarships to Eton or degrees from Oxford by being thick as algae.

    And the fact that polemical nastiness is seem as something valued and to be emulated just shows how social media has degraded politics. Who cares about evidence and reason and insight when you can "own" someone with a well placed insult?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,781
    Tory benches empty.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Go Angela.

    Take them down.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Apologise for any upset, wait for the investigation, bla
  • Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Was that ever true? Really? That you could stand two metres from someone if you didn’t know them but not if you did know them? It’s so long ago and much water has flowed under Westminster Bridge, but if that were ever true, it’s even more bonkers than I ever dared believe.

    It is completely true. You were allowed to meet one person from outside your household as long as you stayed 2 metres apart. As you were allowed to beach, the park, on picnics etc etc on May 20, 2020 you were obviously going to be 2 metres from people that you did not know, and that was ok. Clearly the police were never going to enforce any of these rules.

    Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.

    This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/gallery/2020/may/25/uk-crowds-enjoy-may-sunshine-lockdown-eases-in-pictures
    As pointed out frequently, at the time, the use of long lenses to foreshorten perspective and make people appear to be closer to each other than they really were, was a standard create-a-story tactic.

    If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.

    The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.

    The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....
    The point is though the end of May 2020 was not the "height of lockdown" and you could sit on a beach 2 metres from everyone and drink beer.
    It's worth looking at the Bournemouth Beach on Google Earth aerial views. Those groynes are getting on for 200m apart. Those people are nothing like as close together as they appear.

    I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical.
    Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.
    The Downing St garden, looking at Google maps, is around 30,000 sq ft. That’s room for more than 3,000 people all sitting 6’ apart!

    Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.
    And we are back on dodgy maths. If it were 300 x 100 ft, then you could array people 50 x 15, so 750, if its a simple grid. That may not be the best space filling model, but I struggle to get that to 3000.
    Dodgy maths indeed, but not mine. To be 6’ from one another, a person needs to sit in the middle of 9 sq ft, 3’ x 3’. People 6’ apart can nearly touch their fingers if they stretch.

    Either way, the garden is way bigger than required for a socially distanced event, for people who have spent the day working in close proximity to each other indoors.
    I was working on a packing structure, buy maybe the grid is a poor choice? You've gone with the circles, but that will also leave some gaps - the circles have holes around them! This used to be a 1st yr chemistry practical.
    And looking again - each person with a 3 ft radius occupies 3.141 x 3 x 3, about 28 square ft. So up to 1000, but that ignores the gaps...
    No; each person needs to be in a circle of radius 3.3 feet - it's 2m social distancing remember. That is an area of 35 square feet per person. Then you need to work out the 2-d close packing of those circles touching, which would 'waste' some of the garden space. To a crude approximation you could put each person in a square of 2 x 2m which would be 44 sq feet per person. 681 people. So TT has it about right. But then there is no way to get at the drinkies or food. So you need to make sure each person can access an open lane to the food etc - and that has to be two-way, with passing places at least - but they are getting pissed, so make it two way. THat makes half as many. And deduct a bit for the garden walls, fountains, stachoo of Churchill, etc. We're getting down to 300-odd.
    Hexagonal packing is the most efficient.

    Area of a hexagon with side to side dimension of 2m is 3.46m2 or 37.3 sq feet.


    I do wonder if Boris actually reads any of his emails though. Government by WhatsApp innit?
    Is that 'garden' just a patch of lawn? Are there no flowering shrubs, trees, flower beds and so on? Must reduce the available standing space, surely.
    If we're assuming that people can stand still in a hexagonal lattice for a party, I think we can assume that they can stand in a flower bed!
    Have you considered stacking them vertically?
    Presumably, if we give each guest sufficient negative electromagnetic charge (or positive, I'm not bothered) then they would naturally stay 3 feet apart, and when more were introduced into the garden than could fit in a horizontal lattice would naturally start to stack up vertically.
    We'd need some big rubber sheeting to stop them earthing. This would also protect the flower beds.
    Physicists may be able to refine this approach ( @Fysics_Teacher , are you there?)
    Back in the good old days, Boris's hair did look like he'd had intimate relationships with a Van Der Graaf generator.
  • dixiedean said:


    Why is she dressed like the High Priestess in a Hammer horror?

    So she doesn't look out of place against That Wallpaper when they have a drink before going out?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Eabhal said:

    Tory benches empty.

    Speaks volumes.

    Let's hope Graham Brady's postman has a strong back.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    maaarsh said:

    Why are the current betting prices so out of step with Baxter?

    Probability of possible outcomes

    Labour majority 44%
    Lab minority 43%
    Conservative majority 7%
    No overall control 6%

    Why is Lab Maj still 6/1?

    Is that a serious question?
    Yes.

    Please explain it to me in words of one syllable. I’m a bit simple.
    Mid term polls do not equal a good guess for 2/3 years time.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Why is she dressed like the High Priestess in a Hammer horror?

    And it only cost 700 quid...
    Ah the misogynistic ugliness of attacking the wife of a politician for her choice of dress. A tradition of prats going back to the French Revolution.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,781
    Is this the most Tory Tory ever.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,115

    maaarsh said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    Javid is Kendal from Succession. Superficially plausible successor who fundamentally lacks balls.
    Boris Johnson is Roman?
    He did read Greats at Oxford.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    MrEd said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.

    I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
    I think you may be right. The assumption it will be a mainstream figure high in the Cabinet is strong on here. However. Someone from that faction has the numbers to make the 2. And might well win. Doubt it will be McVey mind.
    But 130/1 is a bloody decent shout.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Eabhal said:

    Is this the most Tory Tory ever.

    Straight from Thatcher cabinet central casting.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,874

    Eabhal said:

    Tory benches empty.

    Speaks volumes.

    Let's hope Graham Brady's postman has a strong back.
    Nah - it'll be his server that takes the strain...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    This no mark is now on about the police.

    Like Dick is going actually going to investigate.

    FFS.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,243

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Was that ever true? Really? That you could stand two metres from someone if you didn’t know them but not if you did know them? It’s so long ago and much water has flowed under Westminster Bridge, but if that were ever true, it’s even more bonkers than I ever dared believe.

    It is completely true. You were allowed to meet one person from outside your household as long as you stayed 2 metres apart. As you were allowed to beach, the park, on picnics etc etc on May 20, 2020 you were obviously going to be 2 metres from people that you did not know, and that was ok. Clearly the police were never going to enforce any of these rules.

    Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.

    This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/gallery/2020/may/25/uk-crowds-enjoy-may-sunshine-lockdown-eases-in-pictures
    As pointed out frequently, at the time, the use of long lenses to foreshorten perspective and make people appear to be closer to each other than they really were, was a standard create-a-story tactic.

    If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.

    The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.

    The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....
    The point is though the end of May 2020 was not the "height of lockdown" and you could sit on a beach 2 metres from everyone and drink beer.
    It's worth looking at the Bournemouth Beach on Google Earth aerial views. Those groynes are getting on for 200m apart. Those people are nothing like as close together as they appear.

    I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical.
    Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.
    The Downing St garden, looking at Google maps, is around 30,000 sq ft. That’s room for more than 3,000 people all sitting 6’ apart!

    Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.
    And we are back on dodgy maths. If it were 300 x 100 ft, then you could array people 50 x 15, so 750, if its a simple grid. That may not be the best space filling model, but I struggle to get that to 3000.
    Dodgy maths indeed, but not mine. To be 6’ from one another, a person needs to sit in the middle of 9 sq ft, 3’ x 3’. People 6’ apart can nearly touch their fingers if they stretch.

    Either way, the garden is way bigger than required for a socially distanced event, for people who have spent the day working in close proximity to each other indoors.
    I was working on a packing structure, buy maybe the grid is a poor choice? You've gone with the circles, but that will also leave some gaps - the circles have holes around them! This used to be a 1st yr chemistry practical.
    And looking again - each person with a 3 ft radius occupies 3.141 x 3 x 3, about 28 square ft. So up to 1000, but that ignores the gaps...
    No; each person needs to be in a circle of radius 3.3 feet - it's 2m social distancing remember. That is an area of 35 square feet per person. Then you need to work out the 2-d close packing of those circles touching, which would 'waste' some of the garden space. To a crude approximation you could put each person in a square of 2 x 2m which would be 44 sq feet per person. 681 people. So TT has it about right. But then there is no way to get at the drinkies or food. So you need to make sure each person can access an open lane to the food etc - and that has to be two-way, with passing places at least - but they are getting pissed, so make it two way. THat makes half as many. And deduct a bit for the garden walls, fountains, stachoo of Churchill, etc. We're getting down to 300-odd.
    Hexagonal packing is the most efficient.

    Area of a hexagon with side to side dimension of 2m is 3.46m2 or 37.3 sq feet.


    I do wonder if Boris actually reads any of his emails though. Government by WhatsApp innit?
    Is that 'garden' just a patch of lawn? Are there no flowering shrubs, trees, flower beds and so on? Must reduce the available standing space, surely.
    If we're assuming that people can stand still in a hexagonal lattice for a party, I think we can assume that they can stand in a flower bed!
    Have you considered stacking them vertically?
    Presumably, if we give each guest sufficient negative electromagnetic charge (or positive, I'm not bothered) then they would naturally stay 3 feet apart, and when more were introduced into the garden than could fit in a horizontal lattice would naturally start to stack up vertically.
    We'd need some big rubber sheeting to stop them earthing. This would also protect the flower beds.
    Physicists may be able to refine this approach ( @Fysics_Teacher , are you there?)
    Back in the good old days, Boris's hair did look like he'd had intimate relationships with a Van Der Graaf generator.
    'intimate'? That's an image I do not need :hushed:
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,874
    edited January 2022

    Eabhal said:

    Tory benches empty.

    Speaks volumes.

    Let's hope Graham Brady's postman has a strong back.
    Deleted - duplicate
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,597

    maaarsh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    maaarsh said:

    Freakishly low number of Welsh cases today. Last week was a catch up day, but it wasn't 10 days worth of catch up.

    It's a complete change in methodology. Only PCRs are now being counted and as you don't need one if you're asymptomatic they aren't included in these figures. There's a seperate lateral flow tab but they don't have up to date data from this. So this is now essentially a symptomatic case count rather than infection count.
    Ha, Drakeford obviously wanted to join the case reduction party and switching stats in the middle of a claimed crisis obviously the easy way to do it.
    Lol. The Drake’s a fake?
    Wales, Scotland and NI are running bigger data lags than England on the LTLA case data, at the moment

    See this - I sorted on Country and included some data for England as a comparison

    image
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,115
    Aslan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Why is she dressed like the High Priestess in a Hammer horror?

    And it only cost 700 quid...
    Ah the misogynistic ugliness of attacking the wife of a politician for her choice of dress. A tradition of prats going back to the French Revolution.
    Dixiedean isn't necessarily attacking Mrs J. He could be a Goth and spend his weekends in Whitby for all we know. And the cost of a dress is quite unconnected to the general taste etc. of the buyer.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    21m
    Mood hardening amongst Tory MPs. Message I’m hearing a lot is “we’ll let him draw a line under Omicron, Then he’s gone”.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited January 2022
    Aslan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Why is she dressed like the High Priestess in a Hammer horror?

    And it only cost 700 quid...
    Ah the misogynistic ugliness of attacking the wife of a politician for her choice of dress. A tradition of prats going back to the French Revolution.
    Of course no-one ever attacked Boris or Corbyn over their clothes or the state of their hair.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Good Lord you could never tell Michael Ellis is a QC. Never ever in a million years.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Eabhal said:

    Tory benches empty.

    Speaks volumes.

    Let's hope Graham Brady's postman has a strong back.
    Yeah, most people outside of the Tory backbenches DO have a spine.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    edited January 2022
    Baker is not even guaranteed to hold his seat

    EDIT: I see others have already made this point
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Angela R is seriously growing into her senior role. This is well presented.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    Q. How many people can you fit into the Downing St garden on May 20th 2020?

    A. 2. More than that would be illegal.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    21m
    Mood hardening amongst Tory MPs. Message I’m hearing a lot is “we’ll let him draw a line under Omicron, Then he’s gone”.

    Same old bollocks. Jam tomorrow. Proper PM the day after that.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    maaarsh said:

    MrEd said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.

    I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
    Harper has run before and clearly wants to run again.
    Hasn't got the RW appeal. Here's the Blue Collar Conservative MPs list - McVey is the founder, Harper isn't even a member.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Collar_Conservativism

    There are around 90 MPs on that list. Not all of them would support her of course but that's a decent chunk of the base and you have some vocal RW MPs on the leadership board (Rowley, Davidson, Bradley) who aren't shy at coming forwards. Get IDS giving support and that will help with another part of the base.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    21m
    Mood hardening amongst Tory MPs. Message I’m hearing a lot is “we’ll let him draw a line under Omicron, Then he’s gone”.

    Beware the ides of May.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Aslan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Why is she dressed like the High Priestess in a Hammer horror?

    And it only cost 700 quid...
    Ah the misogynistic ugliness of attacking the wife of a politician for her choice of dress. A tradition of prats going back to the French Revolution.
    No one's attacking anyone. Release the pearls.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    I personally think Carrie’s dress is rather cool
  • MrEd said:

    maaarsh said:

    MrEd said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.

    I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
    Harper has run before and clearly wants to run again.
    Hasn't got the RW appeal. Here's the Blue Collar Conservative MPs list - McVey is the founder, Harper isn't even a member.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Collar_Conservativism

    There are around 90 MPs on that list. Not all of them would support her of course but that's a decent chunk of the base and you have some vocal RW MPs on the leadership board (Rowley, Davidson, Bradley) who aren't shy at coming forwards. Get IDS giving support and that will help with another part of the base.
    Do you think there are any other prospects?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Eabhal said:

    Tory benches empty.

    Johnson is not the only coward in that party.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Farooq said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    21m
    Mood hardening amongst Tory MPs. Message I’m hearing a lot is “we’ll let him draw a line under Omicron, Then he’s gone”.

    Same old bollocks. Jam tomorrow. Proper PM the day after that.
    Now is not the time :D
  • You have to hand it to this government. The stupidity of believing that "Sue Gray is investigating [snigger] and we won't comment further" will hold is bonkers.

    Was the PM there or not? Was he a recipient of the email or not? Did he know the email had been sent or not? You do not need an investigation for that.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456
    MrEd said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.

    I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
    Spot on post, although the thought scared me rigid.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Swayne wading in to make the anti-lockdown point
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Tories have turned out on mass to support Boris

    image
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    maaarsh said:

    maaarsh said:

    Why are the current betting prices so out of step with Baxter?

    Probability of possible outcomes

    Labour majority 44%
    Lab minority 43%
    Conservative majority 7%
    No overall control 6%

    Why is Lab Maj still 6/1?

    Is that a serious question?
    Yes.

    Please explain it to me in words of one syllable. I’m a bit simple.
    Mid term polls do not equal a good guess for 2/3 years time.
    Me too thick. Me no understand.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    You have to hand it to this government. The stupidity of believing that "Sue Gray is investigating [snigger] and we won't comment further" will hold is bonkers.

    Was the PM there or not? Was he a recipient of the email or not? Did he know the email had been sent or not? You do not need an investigation for that.

    It's a very simple question - Was Boris at "a party" in No 10's Garden on May 20th 2020.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    I personally think Carrie’s dress is rather cool

    I think it's all right too. She does look like she's taking him to the Little Angel, Whitby, mind.
    It'd probably do him more good.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.

    I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
    I think you may be right. The assumption it will be a mainstream figure high in the Cabinet is strong on here. However. Someone from that faction has the numbers to make the 2. And might well win. Doubt it will be McVey mind.
    But 130/1 is a bloody decent shout.
    Also would be some great PMQs if Rayner was deputising and it was McVey vs Rayner.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Bigging up Sue Grey's integrity and independence raises the stakes for her
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,597
    Aslan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Why is she dressed like the High Priestess in a Hammer horror?

    And it only cost 700 quid...
    Ah the misogynistic ugliness of attacking the wife of a politician for her choice of dress. A tradition of prats going back to the French Revolution.
    No, no. It is always justified, *just this one time*. Because reasons.

    See the misogynistic attacks on Thatcher, for example.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598
    Who is this faceless nonentity that is answering questions in the HoC?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Who is this faceless nonentity that is answering questions in the HoC?

    Someone picked as incapable of giving yes or no for an answer
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    MrEd said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.

    I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
    Christmas really would come early. For the SNP.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    IanB2 said:

    Bigging up Sue Grey's integrity and independence raises the stakes for her

    Whilst also suggesting the civil service in general should be beyond question, when it's now abundently clear they were front and centre of this mess.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,597

    Aslan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Why is she dressed like the High Priestess in a Hammer horror?

    And it only cost 700 quid...
    Ah the misogynistic ugliness of attacking the wife of a politician for her choice of dress. A tradition of prats going back to the French Revolution.
    Of course no-one ever attacked Boris or Corbyn over their clothes or the state of their hair.
    The politicians themselves are fair game.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Aslan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Why is she dressed like the High Priestess in a Hammer horror?

    And it only cost 700 quid...
    Ah the misogynistic ugliness of attacking the wife of a politician for her choice of dress. A tradition of prats going back to the French Revolution.
    If you think Marie Anoinette was just the "wife of a politician" rather than a political actor in her own right, then the misogynist is you.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,456
    MrEd said:

    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.

    I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
    I think you may be right. The assumption it will be a mainstream figure high in the Cabinet is strong on here. However. Someone from that faction has the numbers to make the 2. And might well win. Doubt it will be McVey mind.
    But 130/1 is a bloody decent shout.
    Also would be some great PMQs if Rayner was deputising and it was McVey vs Rayner.
    That would be awesome.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    IanB2 said:

    Bigging up Sue Grey's integrity and independence raises the stakes for her

    Looks to me that Johnson is hoping police announce an inquiry and so everything goes on hold for months and months while the MET stick the folder in back office somewhere with an intern and tell them to count the paperclips for a while.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,115

    MrEd said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.

    I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
    Christmas really would come early. For the SNP.
    Hmm, why?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,457
    Angela Eagle:

    Perhaps it (the investigation) would be faster if Sue Gray investigated the days when there weren't parties at No. 10?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Who is this faceless nonentity that is answering questions in the HoC?

    So Alister Jack did turn up then.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,598
    Those fresh lemons sitting in Bozza's kitchen edge ever nearer to an LFT.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited January 2022
    Suggestions that if the police get interested, the Grey investigation might be paused (pending the Met eventually deciding to do nothing). So a route through to the long grass appears....
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,164
    edited January 2022
    Aslan said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Johnson's just really stupid indeed isn't he. Its not like Cameron or May were paragons of moral virtue. But they're have known better than breaking their own rules at an event attended by dozens of people who might one day tell the press about it.
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1480631102985457668

    @IanDunt 100% that. I once had to get some copy out of him and it became clear during the dribbled excuses & telephonic Lorem Ipsum that ensued that month that he had no object permanence. The brain area that helps most of us think about absent, potential or future things is… missing.

    @IanDunt He would lie, and being told he was on speaker with me and my editor, would lie again, in the same way as a toddler will lie about not having the biscuit it has in its hand at that very moment. It was like trying to coach custard towards GCSE Maths.

    @IanDunt The privilege has always meant that his polystyrene-packing level, stupidity was masked, excused, camouflaged. People thought, ‘He just doesn’t care, like Rochester!’ In fact, he just doesn’t know, like algae.

    @IanDunt This, more than anything else, is why he is Britain Trump. Because the wealth and privilege people see is the poncey topiary in front of a near-bottomless chasm of wobbling, thought-free jelly.

    https://twitter.com/MattPotter/status/1480636605849346051

    Life goals: to be as efficiently and creatively brutal as Dunt at scathing takedowns.
    But it's pure stupidity. I am no fan of Boris and hope he is replaced rapidly. But you don't get scholarships to Eton or degrees from Oxford by being thick as algae.

    And the fact that polemical nastiness is seem as something valued and to be emulated just shows how social media has degraded politics. Who cares about evidence and reason and insight when you can "own" someone with a well placed insult?
    I don't think "stupidity" is the correct term for Johnson's biggest flaw.

    What he has, in my view, is a very deep and unshakeable conviction that he is special, and that rules applying to others do not apply to him. This infects his logic. The logic of his position is that what is okay for him would not have been okay for May and Cameron, as they are not special and the rules do apply to them. It isn't stupidity as a failure of logic - it's a correct conclusion if you accept the premise, and the premise isn't an intellectual one, but a very strong psychological feeling.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,597
    maaarsh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bigging up Sue Grey's integrity and independence raises the stakes for her

    Whilst also suggesting the civil service in general should be beyond question, when it's now abundently clear they were front and centre of this mess.
    The claim that the Civil Service have nothing to do with government policy, or the methods of it's implementation or the culture in Whitehall is as farcical as the claim that the PM didn't know what was happening in the back garden.

    And has been since the Civil Service was invented.
  • The Paymaster General keeps saying we need to wait for the investigation as if there is murk to peer into. This one is black and white.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    maaarsh said:

    MrEd said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.

    I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
    Harper has run before and clearly wants to run again.
    Hasn't got the RW appeal. Here's the Blue Collar Conservative MPs list - McVey is the founder, Harper isn't even a member.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Collar_Conservativism

    There are around 90 MPs on that list. Not all of them would support her of course but that's a decent chunk of the base and you have some vocal RW MPs on the leadership board (Rowley, Davidson, Bradley) who aren't shy at coming forwards. Get IDS giving support and that will help with another part of the base.
    Do you think there are any other prospects?
    Good question and I have been thinking that on the bets. I am also certain someone from that grouping will stand and they have the numbers but the other pushy ones (so Davidson etc) are too young. I put some covering money on Baker in case I am wrong but, as I said, I am not convinced and others have flagged about his seat. I can't see Brady standing and ditto on the seat. I can't think of other prospects.

    If it does happen, I think the other candidate will be Javid. I don't think Sunak has the appeal amongst the MPs and to the RW in particular. Javid might and he would be a candidate that the "establishment" Tory MPs could gather around plus he would negate some of McVey's strengths, especially given his background. However, he is an ex-banker and (I have to be careful here) he worked at Deutsche....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    IanB2 said:

    Suggestions that if the police get interested, the Grey investigation might be paused (pending the Met eventually deciding to do nothing). So a route to the long grass appears....

    Yep. This is screaming out to me. Someone brighter than Johnson has come up with a wheeze.

    Could be next year before a criminal inquiry concludes.

    Suddendly Dick will be in favour of police involvement once the call goes in from Downing Street.

    Sue Grey needs to publish tonight.

    I feel sick.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.

    I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
    Christmas really would come early. For the SNP.
    Who cares at 130/1?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Aslan said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Johnson's just really stupid indeed isn't he. Its not like Cameron or May were paragons of moral virtue. But they're have known better than breaking their own rules at an event attended by dozens of people who might one day tell the press about it.
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1480631102985457668

    @IanDunt 100% that. I once had to get some copy out of him and it became clear during the dribbled excuses & telephonic Lorem Ipsum that ensued that month that he had no object permanence. The brain area that helps most of us think about absent, potential or future things is… missing.

    @IanDunt He would lie, and being told he was on speaker with me and my editor, would lie again, in the same way as a toddler will lie about not having the biscuit it has in its hand at that very moment. It was like trying to coach custard towards GCSE Maths.

    @IanDunt The privilege has always meant that his polystyrene-packing level, stupidity was masked, excused, camouflaged. People thought, ‘He just doesn’t care, like Rochester!’ In fact, he just doesn’t know, like algae.

    @IanDunt This, more than anything else, is why he is Britain Trump. Because the wealth and privilege people see is the poncey topiary in front of a near-bottomless chasm of wobbling, thought-free jelly.

    https://twitter.com/MattPotter/status/1480636605849346051

    Life goals: to be as efficiently and creatively brutal as Dunt at scathing takedowns.
    But it's pure stupidity. I am no fan of Boris and hope he is replaced rapidly. But you don't get scholarships to Eton or degrees from Oxford by being thick as algae.

    And the fact that polemical nastiness is seem as something valued and to be emulated just shows how social media has degraded politics. Who cares about evidence and reason and insight when you can "own" someone with a well placed insult?
    I don't think "stupidity" is the correct term for Johnson's biggest flaw.

    What he has, in my view, is a very deep and unshakeable conviction that he is special, and that rules applying to others do not apply to him. This infects his logic. The logic of his position is that what is okay for him would not have been okay for May and Cameron, as they are not special and the rules do apply to them. It isn't stupidity as a failure of logic - it's a correct conclusion if you accept the premise, and the premise isn't an intellectual one, but a very strong psychological feeling.
    Rather like posting daily reports from a Welsh holiday while the rest of us were all staying at home protecting the NHS....
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087

    Who is this faceless nonentity that is answering questions in the HoC?

    Presumably the only minister who didn't "accidentally" drop their phone down the loo? And find an urgent reason to go and visit a departmental branch office no less than 200 miles from London?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,597

    IanB2 said:

    Bigging up Sue Grey's integrity and independence raises the stakes for her

    Looks to me that Johnson is hoping police announce an inquiry and so everything goes on hold for months and months while the MET stick the folder in back office somewhere with an intern and tell them to count the paperclips for a while.
    "MET discover that the entire of ACPO were at the party and stick the folder in back office somewhere with an intern and tell them to count the paperclips for a while."

    Fixed that for you. No charge.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Chope asks why we can't wash all the dirty linen at once!!
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited January 2022

    The Paymaster General keeps saying we need to wait for the investigation as if there is murk to peer into. This one is black and white.

    The issue is that it might have been a Schrödinger Party. And once the truth is revealed the issue is no longer hypothetical.

    The reality is that there was a party and the PM is trying to find a million different ways to not quite say Yes.

    It really just needs Starmer or whoever is asking questions whether Boris attended a party in the Garden of No 10 Downing Street on May 20th 2020.

    And then use every other question to ask the exact same question until Boris says Yes or No.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    maaarsh said:

    MrEd said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.

    I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
    Harper has run before and clearly wants to run again.
    Hasn't got the RW appeal. Here's the Blue Collar Conservative MPs list - McVey is the founder, Harper isn't even a member.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Collar_Conservativism

    There are around 90 MPs on that list. Not all of them would support her of course but that's a decent chunk of the base and you have some vocal RW MPs on the leadership board (Rowley, Davidson, Bradley) who aren't shy at coming forwards. Get IDS giving support and that will help with another part of the base.
    Do you think there are any other prospects?
    Good question and I have been thinking that on the bets. I am also certain someone from that grouping will stand and they have the numbers but the other pushy ones (so Davidson etc) are too young. I put some covering money on Baker in case I am wrong but, as I said, I am not convinced and others have flagged about his seat. I can't see Brady standing and ditto on the seat. I can't think of other prospects.

    If it does happen, I think the other candidate will be Javid. I don't think Sunak has the appeal amongst the MPs and to the RW in particular. Javid might and he would be a candidate that the "establishment" Tory MPs could gather around plus he would negate some of McVey's strengths, especially given his background. However, he is an ex-banker and (I have to be careful here) he worked at Deutsche....
    Hasn't Brady said he's retiring at the next election? Could be wrong, but sure I read that.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    dixiedean said:

    MrEd said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.

    I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
    I think you may be right. The assumption it will be a mainstream figure high in the Cabinet is strong on here. However. Someone from that faction has the numbers to make the 2. And might well win. Doubt it will be McVey mind.
    But 130/1 is a bloody decent shout.
    PS if you do think that, and take the view that BJ goes this year and the next PM will therefore be his Tory successor, you can get her at 200/1 (250/1 with the booster) at Ladbrokes.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,182
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    maaarsh said:

    MrEd said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
    Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).

    It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.

    I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
    Harper has run before and clearly wants to run again.
    Hasn't got the RW appeal. Here's the Blue Collar Conservative MPs list - McVey is the founder, Harper isn't even a member.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Collar_Conservativism

    There are around 90 MPs on that list. Not all of them would support her of course but that's a decent chunk of the base and you have some vocal RW MPs on the leadership board (Rowley, Davidson, Bradley) who aren't shy at coming forwards. Get IDS giving support and that will help with another part of the base.
    Do you think there are any other prospects?
    Good question and I have been thinking that on the bets. I am also certain someone from that grouping will stand and they have the numbers but the other pushy ones (so Davidson etc) are too young. I put some covering money on Baker in case I am wrong but, as I said, I am not convinced and others have flagged about his seat. I can't see Brady standing and ditto on the seat. I can't think of other prospects.

    If it does happen, I think the other candidate will be Javid. I don't think Sunak has the appeal amongst the MPs and to the RW in particular. Javid might and he would be a candidate that the "establishment" Tory MPs could gather around plus he would negate some of McVey's strengths, especially given his background. However, he is an ex-banker and (I have to be careful here) he worked at Deutsche....
    Plus point for Javid - he wasn't actually in the cabinet when all this is going on.
    Minus point for Javid (for the selectorate, not just for me) - he went quickly from being seen as reliably lockdown sceptic to worryingly lockdown-enthusiastic.
This discussion has been closed.