OT. I just heard on radio 4 that 50% of all Europeans will have been infected by the Omicron virus in the next six weeks.
Tell me I misheard.......
Sounds about right.
Due to the infectiousness of Omicron, there seems to be virtually no way of blocking it. Even Chinese style lockdowns are not enough.
The trajectory is clear in many European countries - very, very fast increase in cases.
However...
In earlier "waves" that completely overwhelmed areas (parts of Italy, Brazil, for example) the total numbers infected didn't reach 50%. As measured by antibody surveys afterwards.
Why this is, is up for debate. And whether this holds true for the Winne-The-Pooh variant, is anyones guess.
My guess is that the peak will be before 50%. A guess. That and £2.50 will buy you a coffee. In some places...
We seem to have reached peak infection in this country. The difference between this country and some others in Europe is largely that the vaccinated and boosted take-up in the older groups is very high. The metric to look at is not overall numbers, but those who are most vulnerable.
Which will reduce the casualties from this wave massively. The increase in hospitalisations for the unvaccinated children shows an... "echo" of what we avoided.
I remember there being comment here during the Greek phase of the Euro crisis that one problem they had was that everyone cheated tax rules as much as possible (and wasn't it great that Britain was a much better country where that didn't happen).
Things like the many lockdown parties at Downing Street are incredibly corrosive and undermine the generally law-abiding culture we have. If there are no consequences then we can expect the willingness of the British public to voluntarily follow laws and rules will be considerably eroded.
I honestly don't think government expected the rules to be followed to the extent that they were (and ISTR that there was considerable surprise in government at how rule-abiding everyone was). It's a good thing that we're generally rule-following. But for that to continue we need (as well as a leadership caste which follows its own rules) rules which command respect. The last two years may result in our culture of rule-following taking a knock. I am not a natural rule follower, but I don't regard this as a positive development.
We may get a test before too much longer of whether or not the capacity of the public to put up with petty regulations is infinite. Sturgeon has been flying a kite about making masking a long-term (permanent?) measure in Scotland.
In an interview with STV, Sturgeon apparently suggested that learning to live with the virus still involved some longer-term adjustments to normal life. She said:
Sometimes when you hear people talk about learning to live with Covid, what seems to be suggested is that one morning we’ll wake up and not have to worry about it anymore, and not have to do anything to try to contain and control it.
That’s not what I mean when I say ‘learning to live with it’. Instead, what we will have to ask ourselves is what adaptations to pre-pandemic life – face coverings, for example – might be required in the longer-term to enable us to live with it with far fewer protective measures.
No interest in getting rid of all the rules, you will note, just having fewer of them. She's showing dangerous signs of adopting the Susan Michie approach to public health advocated last Summer, i.e. that masks and social distancing should continue forever. Note also the shift in language from 'restrictions' to 'protections'. All very iSAGE.
Down here we have a careless, cavalier buffoon in charge. Up there they have a sanctimonious, nit-picking council health and safety bureaucrat. God help the lot of us.
FWIW talking to a former SPAD he reckons Boris Johnson's actual moment of high danger for him is the MPs pay rise which is due in April
1) If it goes ahead then it is going to look horrific as the cost of living crisis kicks up to a new level
or
2) He cancels the pay rise for Tory MPs which will lead to much grumbling and many letters to Sir Graham Brady.
Starmer has already called for the MPs pay rise to be cancelled due to the 'cost of living crisis' faced by 'ordinary' people. A smart move, I think, to get in first.
Was that ever true? Really? That you could stand two metres from someone if you didn’t know them but not if you did know them? It’s so long ago and much water has flowed under Westminster Bridge, but if that were ever true, it’s even more bonkers than I ever dared believe.
It is completely true. You were allowed to meet one person from outside your household as long as you stayed 2 metres apart. As you were allowed to beach, the park, on picnics etc etc on May 20, 2020 you were obviously going to be 2 metres from people that you did not know, and that was ok. Clearly the police were never going to enforce any of these rules.
Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.
This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"
As pointed out frequently, at the time, the use of long lenses to foreshorten perspective and make people appear to be closer to each other than they really were, was a standard create-a-story tactic.
If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.
The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.
The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....
The point is though the end of May 2020 was not the "height of lockdown" and you could sit on a beach 2 metres from everyone and drink beer.
It's worth looking at the Bournemouth Beach on Google Earth aerial views. Those groynes are getting on for 200m apart. Those people are nothing like as close together as they appear.
I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical. Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.
The Downing St garden, looking at Google maps, is around 30,000 sq ft. That’s room for more than 3,000 people all sitting 6’ apart!
Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.
And we are back on dodgy maths. If it were 300 x 100 ft, then you could array people 50 x 15, so 750, if its a simple grid. That may not be the best space filling model, but I struggle to get that to 3000.
Dodgy maths indeed, but not mine. To be 6’ from one another, a person needs to sit in the middle of 9 sq ft, 3’ x 3’. People 6’ apart can nearly touch their fingers if they stretch.
Either way, the garden is way bigger than required for a socially distanced event, for people who have spent the day working in close proximity to each other indoors.
I was working on a packing structure, buy maybe the grid is a poor choice? You've gone with the circles, but that will also leave some gaps - the circles have holes around them! This used to be a 1st yr chemistry practical.
And looking again - each person with a 3 ft radius occupies 3.141 x 3 x 3, about 28 square ft. So up to 1000, but that ignores the gaps...
No; each person needs to be in a circle of radius 3.3 feet - it's 2m social distancing remember. That is an area of 35 square feet per person. Then you need to work out the 2-d close packing of those circles touching, which would 'waste' some of the garden space. To a crude approximation you could put each person in a square of 2 x 2m which would be 44 sq feet per person. 681 people. So TT has it about right. But then there is no way to get at the drinkies or food. So you need to make sure each person can access an open lane to the food etc - and that has to be two-way, with passing places at least - but they are getting pissed, so make it two way. THat makes half as many. And deduct a bit for the garden walls, fountains, stachoo of Churchill, etc. We're getting down to 300-odd.
Hexagonal packing is the most efficient.
Area of a hexagon with side to side dimension of 2m is 3.46m2 or 37.3 sq feet.
I do wonder if Boris actually reads any of his emails though. Government by WhatsApp innit?
Someone ought to contact Scientific American and get a piece in 'Mathematical Recreations'
"Effective packing algorithms in a Downing Street garden."
If it's not in the Christmas bmj, I'll be surprised (there's even an epi angle - due to the backdrop of Covid NPIs)
FWIW talking to a former SPAD he reckons Boris Johnson's actual moment of high danger for him is the MPs pay rise which is due in April
1) If it goes ahead then it is going to look horrific as the cost of living crisis kicks up to a new level
or
2) He cancels the pay rise for Tory MPs which will lead to much grumbling and many letters to Sir Graham Brady.
does the MP pay rise even reflect current inflation rates? I don't think it does which means it's a reasonable pay rise but it's going to be impossible to pay it.
2.7% is the expected increase which shakes out as a pay rise of £2,200 for every MP.
OT. I just heard on radio 4 that 50% of all Europeans will have been infected by the Omicron virus in the next six weeks.
Tell me I misheard.......
I did tongue-in-cheek say a week or so ago that we are approaching a world with state sanctions still present designed to protect everyone when everyone has already had it.
30% might never 'really' get it iirc the UCL research from yesterday on t-cells and common colds and covid.
I remember there being comment here during the Greek phase of the Euro crisis that one problem they had was that everyone cheated tax rules as much as possible (and wasn't it great that Britain was a much better country where that didn't happen).
Things like the many lockdown parties at Downing Street are incredibly corrosive and undermine the generally law-abiding culture we have. If there are no consequences then we can expect the willingness of the British public to voluntarily follow laws and rules will be considerably eroded.
I honestly don't think government expected the rules to be followed to the extent that they were (and ISTR that there was considerable surprise in government at how rule-abiding everyone was). It's a good thing that we're generally rule-following. But for that to continue we need (as well as a leadership caste which follows its own rules) rules which command respect. The last two years may result in our culture of rule-following taking a knock. I am not a natural rule follower, but I don't regard this as a positive development.
We may get a test before too much longer of whether or not the capacity of the public to put up with petty regulations is infinite. Sturgeon has been flying a kite about making masking a long-term (permanent?) measure in Scotland.
In an interview with STV, Sturgeon apparently suggested that learning to live with the virus still involved some longer-term adjustments to normal life. She said:
Sometimes when you hear people talk about learning to live with Covid, what seems to be suggested is that one morning we’ll wake up and not have to worry about it anymore, and not have to do anything to try to contain and control it.
That’s not what I mean when I say ‘learning to live with it’. Instead, what we will have to ask ourselves is what adaptations to pre-pandemic life – face coverings, for example – might be required in the longer-term to enable us to live with it with far fewer protective measures.
No interest in getting rid of all the rules, you will note, just having fewer of them. She's showing dangerous signs of adopting the Susan Michie approach to public health advocated last Summer, i.e. that masks and social distancing should continue forever. Note also the shift in language from 'restrictions' to 'protections'. All very iSAGE.
Down here we have a careless, cavalier buffoon in charge. Up there they have a sanctimonious, nit-picking council health and safety bureaucrat. God help the lot of us.
The crunch point for Sturgeon, and Drakeford, is going to be the Six Nations.
Agreed that MP pay rises is possibly the crunch point for Johnson. Members are not exempt from the laws of inflation, and even though they no longer vote on their own pay, it’s still a huge political issue.
FWIW talking to a former SPAD he reckons Boris Johnson's actual moment of high danger for him is the MPs pay rise which is due in April
1) If it goes ahead then it is going to look horrific as the cost of living crisis kicks up to a new level
or
2) He cancels the pay rise for Tory MPs which will lead to much grumbling and many letters to Sir Graham Brady.
does the MP pay rise even reflect current inflation rates? I don't think it does which means it's a reasonable pay rise but it's going to be impossible to pay it.
2.7% is the expected increase which shakes out as a pay rise of £2,200 for every MP.
Yep - not even inflation
I notice that the pensioners rise is only 3.1%, also not even inflation.
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
Freakishly low number of Welsh cases today. Last week was a catch up day, but it wasn't 10 days worth of catch up.
It's a complete change in methodology. Only PCRs are now being counted and as you don't need one if you're asymptomatic they aren't included in these figures. There's a seperate lateral flow tab but they don't have up to date data from this. So this is now essentially a symptomatic case count rather than infection count.
Ha, Drakeford obviously wanted to join the case reduction party and switching stats in the middle of a claimed crisis obviously the easy way to do it.
Johnson's just really stupid indeed isn't he. Its not like Cameron or May were paragons of moral virtue. But they're have known better than breaking their own rules at an event attended by dozens of people who might one day tell the press about it. https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1480631102985457668
@IanDunt 100% that. I once had to get some copy out of him and it became clear during the dribbled excuses & telephonic Lorem Ipsum that ensued that month that he had no object permanence. The brain area that helps most of us think about absent, potential or future things is… missing.
@IanDunt He would lie, and being told he was on speaker with me and my editor, would lie again, in the same way as a toddler will lie about not having the biscuit it has in its hand at that very moment. It was like trying to coach custard towards GCSE Maths.
@IanDunt The privilege has always meant that his polystyrene-packing level, stupidity was masked, excused, camouflaged. People thought, ‘He just doesn’t care, like Rochester!’ In fact, he just doesn’t know, like algae.
@IanDunt This, more than anything else, is why he is Britain Trump. Because the wealth and privilege people see is the poncey topiary in front of a near-bottomless chasm of wobbling, thought-free jelly. https://twitter.com/MattPotter/status/1480636605849346051
Life goals: to be as efficiently and creatively brutal as Dunt at scathing takedowns.
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
Harper has run before and clearly wants to run again.
Was that ever true? Really? That you could stand two metres from someone if you didn’t know them but not if you did know them? It’s so long ago and much water has flowed under Westminster Bridge, but if that were ever true, it’s even more bonkers than I ever dared believe.
It is completely true. You were allowed to meet one person from outside your household as long as you stayed 2 metres apart. As you were allowed to beach, the park, on picnics etc etc on May 20, 2020 you were obviously going to be 2 metres from people that you did not know, and that was ok. Clearly the police were never going to enforce any of these rules.
Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.
This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"
As pointed out frequently, at the time, the use of long lenses to foreshorten perspective and make people appear to be closer to each other than they really were, was a standard create-a-story tactic.
If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.
The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.
The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....
The point is though the end of May 2020 was not the "height of lockdown" and you could sit on a beach 2 metres from everyone and drink beer.
It's worth looking at the Bournemouth Beach on Google Earth aerial views. Those groynes are getting on for 200m apart. Those people are nothing like as close together as they appear.
I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical. Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.
The Downing St garden, looking at Google maps, is around 30,000 sq ft. That’s room for more than 3,000 people all sitting 6’ apart!
Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.
And we are back on dodgy maths. If it were 300 x 100 ft, then you could array people 50 x 15, so 750, if its a simple grid. That may not be the best space filling model, but I struggle to get that to 3000.
Dodgy maths indeed, but not mine. To be 6’ from one another, a person needs to sit in the middle of 9 sq ft, 3’ x 3’. People 6’ apart can nearly touch their fingers if they stretch.
Either way, the garden is way bigger than required for a socially distanced event, for people who have spent the day working in close proximity to each other indoors.
I was working on a packing structure, buy maybe the grid is a poor choice? You've gone with the circles, but that will also leave some gaps - the circles have holes around them! This used to be a 1st yr chemistry practical.
And looking again - each person with a 3 ft radius occupies 3.141 x 3 x 3, about 28 square ft. So up to 1000, but that ignores the gaps...
No; each person needs to be in a circle of radius 3.3 feet - it's 2m social distancing remember. That is an area of 35 square feet per person. Then you need to work out the 2-d close packing of those circles touching, which would 'waste' some of the garden space. To a crude approximation you could put each person in a square of 2 x 2m which would be 44 sq feet per person. 681 people. So TT has it about right. But then there is no way to get at the drinkies or food. So you need to make sure each person can access an open lane to the food etc - and that has to be two-way, with passing places at least - but they are getting pissed, so make it two way. THat makes half as many. And deduct a bit for the garden walls, fountains, stachoo of Churchill, etc. We're getting down to 300-odd.
Although this is a bit of a laugh, we genuinely were forced to do calculations like this to be allowed back into our chemistry research labs in July 2020. This despite the huge turnover of air via the fume hoods.
One thing the pandemic has been is one enormous pain the arse. One petty annoyance after another. For everyone except Number Ten.
Johnson's just really stupid indeed isn't he. Its not like Cameron or May were paragons of moral virtue. But they're have known better than breaking their own rules at an event attended by dozens of people who might one day tell the press about it. https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1480631102985457668
@IanDunt 100% that. I once had to get some copy out of him and it became clear during the dribbled excuses & telephonic Lorem Ipsum that ensued that month that he had no object permanence. The brain area that helps most of us think about absent, potential or future things is… missing.
@IanDunt He would lie, and being told he was on speaker with me and my editor, would lie again, in the same way as a toddler will lie about not having the biscuit it has in its hand at that very moment. It was like trying to coach custard towards GCSE Maths.
@IanDunt The privilege has always meant that his polystyrene-packing level, stupidity was masked, excused, camouflaged. People thought, ‘He just doesn’t care, like Rochester!’ In fact, he just doesn’t know, like algae.
@IanDunt This, more than anything else, is why he is Britain Trump. Because the wealth and privilege people see is the poncey topiary in front of a near-bottomless chasm of wobbling, thought-free jelly. https://twitter.com/MattPotter/status/1480636605849346051
Life goals: to be as efficiently and creatively brutal as Dunt at scathing takedowns.
But it's pure stupidity. I am no fan of Boris and hope he is replaced rapidly. But you don't get scholarships to Eton or degrees from Oxford by being thick as algae.
And the fact that polemical nastiness is seem as something valued and to be emulated just shows how social media has degraded politics. Who cares about evidence and reason and insight when you can "own" someone with a well placed insult?
Was that ever true? Really? That you could stand two metres from someone if you didn’t know them but not if you did know them? It’s so long ago and much water has flowed under Westminster Bridge, but if that were ever true, it’s even more bonkers than I ever dared believe.
It is completely true. You were allowed to meet one person from outside your household as long as you stayed 2 metres apart. As you were allowed to beach, the park, on picnics etc etc on May 20, 2020 you were obviously going to be 2 metres from people that you did not know, and that was ok. Clearly the police were never going to enforce any of these rules.
Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.
This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"
As pointed out frequently, at the time, the use of long lenses to foreshorten perspective and make people appear to be closer to each other than they really were, was a standard create-a-story tactic.
If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.
The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.
The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....
The point is though the end of May 2020 was not the "height of lockdown" and you could sit on a beach 2 metres from everyone and drink beer.
It's worth looking at the Bournemouth Beach on Google Earth aerial views. Those groynes are getting on for 200m apart. Those people are nothing like as close together as they appear.
I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical. Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.
The Downing St garden, looking at Google maps, is around 30,000 sq ft. That’s room for more than 3,000 people all sitting 6’ apart!
Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.
And we are back on dodgy maths. If it were 300 x 100 ft, then you could array people 50 x 15, so 750, if its a simple grid. That may not be the best space filling model, but I struggle to get that to 3000.
Dodgy maths indeed, but not mine. To be 6’ from one another, a person needs to sit in the middle of 9 sq ft, 3’ x 3’. People 6’ apart can nearly touch their fingers if they stretch.
Either way, the garden is way bigger than required for a socially distanced event, for people who have spent the day working in close proximity to each other indoors.
I was working on a packing structure, buy maybe the grid is a poor choice? You've gone with the circles, but that will also leave some gaps - the circles have holes around them! This used to be a 1st yr chemistry practical.
And looking again - each person with a 3 ft radius occupies 3.141 x 3 x 3, about 28 square ft. So up to 1000, but that ignores the gaps...
No; each person needs to be in a circle of radius 3.3 feet - it's 2m social distancing remember. That is an area of 35 square feet per person. Then you need to work out the 2-d close packing of those circles touching, which would 'waste' some of the garden space. To a crude approximation you could put each person in a square of 2 x 2m which would be 44 sq feet per person. 681 people. So TT has it about right. But then there is no way to get at the drinkies or food. So you need to make sure each person can access an open lane to the food etc - and that has to be two-way, with passing places at least - but they are getting pissed, so make it two way. THat makes half as many. And deduct a bit for the garden walls, fountains, stachoo of Churchill, etc. We're getting down to 300-odd.
Hexagonal packing is the most efficient.
Area of a hexagon with side to side dimension of 2m is 3.46m2 or 37.3 sq feet.
I do wonder if Boris actually reads any of his emails though. Government by WhatsApp innit?
Is that 'garden' just a patch of lawn? Are there no flowering shrubs, trees, flower beds and so on? Must reduce the available standing space, surely.
If we're assuming that people can stand still in a hexagonal lattice for a party, I think we can assume that they can stand in a flower bed!
Have you considered stacking them vertically?
Presumably, if we give each guest sufficient negative electromagnetic charge (or positive, I'm not bothered) then they would naturally stay 3 feet apart, and when more were introduced into the garden than could fit in a horizontal lattice would naturally start to stack up vertically. We'd need some big rubber sheeting to stop them earthing. This would also protect the flower beds. Physicists may be able to refine this approach ( @Fysics_Teacher , are you there?)
Back in the good old days, Boris's hair did look like he'd had intimate relationships with a Van Der Graaf generator.
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
I think you may be right. The assumption it will be a mainstream figure high in the Cabinet is strong on here. However. Someone from that faction has the numbers to make the 2. And might well win. Doubt it will be McVey mind. But 130/1 is a bloody decent shout.
Was that ever true? Really? That you could stand two metres from someone if you didn’t know them but not if you did know them? It’s so long ago and much water has flowed under Westminster Bridge, but if that were ever true, it’s even more bonkers than I ever dared believe.
It is completely true. You were allowed to meet one person from outside your household as long as you stayed 2 metres apart. As you were allowed to beach, the park, on picnics etc etc on May 20, 2020 you were obviously going to be 2 metres from people that you did not know, and that was ok. Clearly the police were never going to enforce any of these rules.
Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.
This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"
As pointed out frequently, at the time, the use of long lenses to foreshorten perspective and make people appear to be closer to each other than they really were, was a standard create-a-story tactic.
If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.
The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.
The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....
The point is though the end of May 2020 was not the "height of lockdown" and you could sit on a beach 2 metres from everyone and drink beer.
It's worth looking at the Bournemouth Beach on Google Earth aerial views. Those groynes are getting on for 200m apart. Those people are nothing like as close together as they appear.
I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical. Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.
The Downing St garden, looking at Google maps, is around 30,000 sq ft. That’s room for more than 3,000 people all sitting 6’ apart!
Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.
And we are back on dodgy maths. If it were 300 x 100 ft, then you could array people 50 x 15, so 750, if its a simple grid. That may not be the best space filling model, but I struggle to get that to 3000.
Dodgy maths indeed, but not mine. To be 6’ from one another, a person needs to sit in the middle of 9 sq ft, 3’ x 3’. People 6’ apart can nearly touch their fingers if they stretch.
Either way, the garden is way bigger than required for a socially distanced event, for people who have spent the day working in close proximity to each other indoors.
I was working on a packing structure, buy maybe the grid is a poor choice? You've gone with the circles, but that will also leave some gaps - the circles have holes around them! This used to be a 1st yr chemistry practical.
And looking again - each person with a 3 ft radius occupies 3.141 x 3 x 3, about 28 square ft. So up to 1000, but that ignores the gaps...
No; each person needs to be in a circle of radius 3.3 feet - it's 2m social distancing remember. That is an area of 35 square feet per person. Then you need to work out the 2-d close packing of those circles touching, which would 'waste' some of the garden space. To a crude approximation you could put each person in a square of 2 x 2m which would be 44 sq feet per person. 681 people. So TT has it about right. But then there is no way to get at the drinkies or food. So you need to make sure each person can access an open lane to the food etc - and that has to be two-way, with passing places at least - but they are getting pissed, so make it two way. THat makes half as many. And deduct a bit for the garden walls, fountains, stachoo of Churchill, etc. We're getting down to 300-odd.
Hexagonal packing is the most efficient.
Area of a hexagon with side to side dimension of 2m is 3.46m2 or 37.3 sq feet.
I do wonder if Boris actually reads any of his emails though. Government by WhatsApp innit?
Is that 'garden' just a patch of lawn? Are there no flowering shrubs, trees, flower beds and so on? Must reduce the available standing space, surely.
If we're assuming that people can stand still in a hexagonal lattice for a party, I think we can assume that they can stand in a flower bed!
Have you considered stacking them vertically?
Presumably, if we give each guest sufficient negative electromagnetic charge (or positive, I'm not bothered) then they would naturally stay 3 feet apart, and when more were introduced into the garden than could fit in a horizontal lattice would naturally start to stack up vertically. We'd need some big rubber sheeting to stop them earthing. This would also protect the flower beds. Physicists may be able to refine this approach ( @Fysics_Teacher , are you there?)
Back in the good old days, Boris's hair did look like he'd had intimate relationships with a Van Der Graaf generator.
Freakishly low number of Welsh cases today. Last week was a catch up day, but it wasn't 10 days worth of catch up.
It's a complete change in methodology. Only PCRs are now being counted and as you don't need one if you're asymptomatic they aren't included in these figures. There's a seperate lateral flow tab but they don't have up to date data from this. So this is now essentially a symptomatic case count rather than infection count.
Ha, Drakeford obviously wanted to join the case reduction party and switching stats in the middle of a claimed crisis obviously the easy way to do it.
Lol. The Drake’s a fake?
Wales, Scotland and NI are running bigger data lags than England on the LTLA case data, at the moment
See this - I sorted on Country and included some data for England as a comparison
Why is she dressed like the High Priestess in a Hammer horror?
And it only cost 700 quid...
Ah the misogynistic ugliness of attacking the wife of a politician for her choice of dress. A tradition of prats going back to the French Revolution.
Dixiedean isn't necessarily attacking Mrs J. He could be a Goth and spend his weekends in Whitby for all we know. And the cost of a dress is quite unconnected to the general taste etc. of the buyer.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 21m Mood hardening amongst Tory MPs. Message I’m hearing a lot is “we’ll let him draw a line under Omicron, Then he’s gone”.
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
Harper has run before and clearly wants to run again.
Hasn't got the RW appeal. Here's the Blue Collar Conservative MPs list - McVey is the founder, Harper isn't even a member.
There are around 90 MPs on that list. Not all of them would support her of course but that's a decent chunk of the base and you have some vocal RW MPs on the leadership board (Rowley, Davidson, Bradley) who aren't shy at coming forwards. Get IDS giving support and that will help with another part of the base.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 21m Mood hardening amongst Tory MPs. Message I’m hearing a lot is “we’ll let him draw a line under Omicron, Then he’s gone”.
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
Harper has run before and clearly wants to run again.
Hasn't got the RW appeal. Here's the Blue Collar Conservative MPs list - McVey is the founder, Harper isn't even a member.
There are around 90 MPs on that list. Not all of them would support her of course but that's a decent chunk of the base and you have some vocal RW MPs on the leadership board (Rowley, Davidson, Bradley) who aren't shy at coming forwards. Get IDS giving support and that will help with another part of the base.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 21m Mood hardening amongst Tory MPs. Message I’m hearing a lot is “we’ll let him draw a line under Omicron, Then he’s gone”.
Same old bollocks. Jam tomorrow. Proper PM the day after that.
You have to hand it to this government. The stupidity of believing that "Sue Gray is investigating [snigger] and we won't comment further" will hold is bonkers.
Was the PM there or not? Was he a recipient of the email or not? Did he know the email had been sent or not? You do not need an investigation for that.
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
Spot on post, although the thought scared me rigid.
You have to hand it to this government. The stupidity of believing that "Sue Gray is investigating [snigger] and we won't comment further" will hold is bonkers.
Was the PM there or not? Was he a recipient of the email or not? Did he know the email had been sent or not? You do not need an investigation for that.
It's a very simple question - Was Boris at "a party" in No 10's Garden on May 20th 2020.
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
I think you may be right. The assumption it will be a mainstream figure high in the Cabinet is strong on here. However. Someone from that faction has the numbers to make the 2. And might well win. Doubt it will be McVey mind. But 130/1 is a bloody decent shout.
Also would be some great PMQs if Rayner was deputising and it was McVey vs Rayner.
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
I think you may be right. The assumption it will be a mainstream figure high in the Cabinet is strong on here. However. Someone from that faction has the numbers to make the 2. And might well win. Doubt it will be McVey mind. But 130/1 is a bloody decent shout.
Also would be some great PMQs if Rayner was deputising and it was McVey vs Rayner.
Bigging up Sue Grey's integrity and independence raises the stakes for her
Looks to me that Johnson is hoping police announce an inquiry and so everything goes on hold for months and months while the MET stick the folder in back office somewhere with an intern and tell them to count the paperclips for a while.
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
Suggestions that if the police get interested, the Grey investigation might be paused (pending the Met eventually deciding to do nothing). So a route through to the long grass appears....
Johnson's just really stupid indeed isn't he. Its not like Cameron or May were paragons of moral virtue. But they're have known better than breaking their own rules at an event attended by dozens of people who might one day tell the press about it. https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1480631102985457668
@IanDunt 100% that. I once had to get some copy out of him and it became clear during the dribbled excuses & telephonic Lorem Ipsum that ensued that month that he had no object permanence. The brain area that helps most of us think about absent, potential or future things is… missing.
@IanDunt He would lie, and being told he was on speaker with me and my editor, would lie again, in the same way as a toddler will lie about not having the biscuit it has in its hand at that very moment. It was like trying to coach custard towards GCSE Maths.
@IanDunt The privilege has always meant that his polystyrene-packing level, stupidity was masked, excused, camouflaged. People thought, ‘He just doesn’t care, like Rochester!’ In fact, he just doesn’t know, like algae.
@IanDunt This, more than anything else, is why he is Britain Trump. Because the wealth and privilege people see is the poncey topiary in front of a near-bottomless chasm of wobbling, thought-free jelly. https://twitter.com/MattPotter/status/1480636605849346051
Life goals: to be as efficiently and creatively brutal as Dunt at scathing takedowns.
But it's pure stupidity. I am no fan of Boris and hope he is replaced rapidly. But you don't get scholarships to Eton or degrees from Oxford by being thick as algae.
And the fact that polemical nastiness is seem as something valued and to be emulated just shows how social media has degraded politics. Who cares about evidence and reason and insight when you can "own" someone with a well placed insult?
I don't think "stupidity" is the correct term for Johnson's biggest flaw.
What he has, in my view, is a very deep and unshakeable conviction that he is special, and that rules applying to others do not apply to him. This infects his logic. The logic of his position is that what is okay for him would not have been okay for May and Cameron, as they are not special and the rules do apply to them. It isn't stupidity as a failure of logic - it's a correct conclusion if you accept the premise, and the premise isn't an intellectual one, but a very strong psychological feeling.
Bigging up Sue Grey's integrity and independence raises the stakes for her
Whilst also suggesting the civil service in general should be beyond question, when it's now abundently clear they were front and centre of this mess.
The claim that the Civil Service have nothing to do with government policy, or the methods of it's implementation or the culture in Whitehall is as farcical as the claim that the PM didn't know what was happening in the back garden.
And has been since the Civil Service was invented.
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
Harper has run before and clearly wants to run again.
Hasn't got the RW appeal. Here's the Blue Collar Conservative MPs list - McVey is the founder, Harper isn't even a member.
There are around 90 MPs on that list. Not all of them would support her of course but that's a decent chunk of the base and you have some vocal RW MPs on the leadership board (Rowley, Davidson, Bradley) who aren't shy at coming forwards. Get IDS giving support and that will help with another part of the base.
Do you think there are any other prospects?
Good question and I have been thinking that on the bets. I am also certain someone from that grouping will stand and they have the numbers but the other pushy ones (so Davidson etc) are too young. I put some covering money on Baker in case I am wrong but, as I said, I am not convinced and others have flagged about his seat. I can't see Brady standing and ditto on the seat. I can't think of other prospects.
If it does happen, I think the other candidate will be Javid. I don't think Sunak has the appeal amongst the MPs and to the RW in particular. Javid might and he would be a candidate that the "establishment" Tory MPs could gather around plus he would negate some of McVey's strengths, especially given his background. However, he is an ex-banker and (I have to be careful here) he worked at Deutsche....
Suggestions that if the police get interested, the Grey investigation might be paused (pending the Met eventually deciding to do nothing). So a route to the long grass appears....
Yep. This is screaming out to me. Someone brighter than Johnson has come up with a wheeze.
Could be next year before a criminal inquiry concludes.
Suddendly Dick will be in favour of police involvement once the call goes in from Downing Street.
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
Johnson's just really stupid indeed isn't he. Its not like Cameron or May were paragons of moral virtue. But they're have known better than breaking their own rules at an event attended by dozens of people who might one day tell the press about it. https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1480631102985457668
@IanDunt 100% that. I once had to get some copy out of him and it became clear during the dribbled excuses & telephonic Lorem Ipsum that ensued that month that he had no object permanence. The brain area that helps most of us think about absent, potential or future things is… missing.
@IanDunt He would lie, and being told he was on speaker with me and my editor, would lie again, in the same way as a toddler will lie about not having the biscuit it has in its hand at that very moment. It was like trying to coach custard towards GCSE Maths.
@IanDunt The privilege has always meant that his polystyrene-packing level, stupidity was masked, excused, camouflaged. People thought, ‘He just doesn’t care, like Rochester!’ In fact, he just doesn’t know, like algae.
@IanDunt This, more than anything else, is why he is Britain Trump. Because the wealth and privilege people see is the poncey topiary in front of a near-bottomless chasm of wobbling, thought-free jelly. https://twitter.com/MattPotter/status/1480636605849346051
Life goals: to be as efficiently and creatively brutal as Dunt at scathing takedowns.
But it's pure stupidity. I am no fan of Boris and hope he is replaced rapidly. But you don't get scholarships to Eton or degrees from Oxford by being thick as algae.
And the fact that polemical nastiness is seem as something valued and to be emulated just shows how social media has degraded politics. Who cares about evidence and reason and insight when you can "own" someone with a well placed insult?
I don't think "stupidity" is the correct term for Johnson's biggest flaw.
What he has, in my view, is a very deep and unshakeable conviction that he is special, and that rules applying to others do not apply to him. This infects his logic. The logic of his position is that what is okay for him would not have been okay for May and Cameron, as they are not special and the rules do apply to them. It isn't stupidity as a failure of logic - it's a correct conclusion if you accept the premise, and the premise isn't an intellectual one, but a very strong psychological feeling.
Rather like posting daily reports from a Welsh holiday while the rest of us were all staying at home protecting the NHS....
Who is this faceless nonentity that is answering questions in the HoC?
Presumably the only minister who didn't "accidentally" drop their phone down the loo? And find an urgent reason to go and visit a departmental branch office no less than 200 miles from London?
Bigging up Sue Grey's integrity and independence raises the stakes for her
Looks to me that Johnson is hoping police announce an inquiry and so everything goes on hold for months and months while the MET stick the folder in back office somewhere with an intern and tell them to count the paperclips for a while.
"MET discover that the entire of ACPO were at the party and stick the folder in back office somewhere with an intern and tell them to count the paperclips for a while."
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
Harper has run before and clearly wants to run again.
Hasn't got the RW appeal. Here's the Blue Collar Conservative MPs list - McVey is the founder, Harper isn't even a member.
There are around 90 MPs on that list. Not all of them would support her of course but that's a decent chunk of the base and you have some vocal RW MPs on the leadership board (Rowley, Davidson, Bradley) who aren't shy at coming forwards. Get IDS giving support and that will help with another part of the base.
Do you think there are any other prospects?
Good question and I have been thinking that on the bets. I am also certain someone from that grouping will stand and they have the numbers but the other pushy ones (so Davidson etc) are too young. I put some covering money on Baker in case I am wrong but, as I said, I am not convinced and others have flagged about his seat. I can't see Brady standing and ditto on the seat. I can't think of other prospects.
If it does happen, I think the other candidate will be Javid. I don't think Sunak has the appeal amongst the MPs and to the RW in particular. Javid might and he would be a candidate that the "establishment" Tory MPs could gather around plus he would negate some of McVey's strengths, especially given his background. However, he is an ex-banker and (I have to be careful here) he worked at Deutsche....
Hasn't Brady said he's retiring at the next election? Could be wrong, but sure I read that.
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
I think you may be right. The assumption it will be a mainstream figure high in the Cabinet is strong on here. However. Someone from that faction has the numbers to make the 2. And might well win. Doubt it will be McVey mind. But 130/1 is a bloody decent shout.
PS if you do think that, and take the view that BJ goes this year and the next PM will therefore be his Tory successor, you can get her at 200/1 (250/1 with the booster) at Ladbrokes.
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
Harper has run before and clearly wants to run again.
Hasn't got the RW appeal. Here's the Blue Collar Conservative MPs list - McVey is the founder, Harper isn't even a member.
There are around 90 MPs on that list. Not all of them would support her of course but that's a decent chunk of the base and you have some vocal RW MPs on the leadership board (Rowley, Davidson, Bradley) who aren't shy at coming forwards. Get IDS giving support and that will help with another part of the base.
Do you think there are any other prospects?
Good question and I have been thinking that on the bets. I am also certain someone from that grouping will stand and they have the numbers but the other pushy ones (so Davidson etc) are too young. I put some covering money on Baker in case I am wrong but, as I said, I am not convinced and others have flagged about his seat. I can't see Brady standing and ditto on the seat. I can't think of other prospects.
If it does happen, I think the other candidate will be Javid. I don't think Sunak has the appeal amongst the MPs and to the RW in particular. Javid might and he would be a candidate that the "establishment" Tory MPs could gather around plus he would negate some of McVey's strengths, especially given his background. However, he is an ex-banker and (I have to be careful here) he worked at Deutsche....
Plus point for Javid - he wasn't actually in the cabinet when all this is going on. Minus point for Javid (for the selectorate, not just for me) - he went quickly from being seen as reliably lockdown sceptic to worryingly lockdown-enthusiastic.
Johnson's just really stupid indeed isn't he. Its not like Cameron or May were paragons of moral virtue. But they're have known better than breaking their own rules at an event attended by dozens of people who might one day tell the press about it. https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1480631102985457668
@IanDunt 100% that. I once had to get some copy out of him and it became clear during the dribbled excuses & telephonic Lorem Ipsum that ensued that month that he had no object permanence. The brain area that helps most of us think about absent, potential or future things is… missing.
@IanDunt He would lie, and being told he was on speaker with me and my editor, would lie again, in the same way as a toddler will lie about not having the biscuit it has in its hand at that very moment. It was like trying to coach custard towards GCSE Maths.
@IanDunt The privilege has always meant that his polystyrene-packing level, stupidity was masked, excused, camouflaged. People thought, ‘He just doesn’t care, like Rochester!’ In fact, he just doesn’t know, like algae.
@IanDunt This, more than anything else, is why he is Britain Trump. Because the wealth and privilege people see is the poncey topiary in front of a near-bottomless chasm of wobbling, thought-free jelly. https://twitter.com/MattPotter/status/1480636605849346051
"The brain area that helps most of us think about absent, potential or future things is… missing."
His ADHD is part of the problem but not necessarily the core one. (and, btw, it is not lack of brain area, but a deficit of meaningful subconscious help in turning a stream of tasks and ideas into some kind of organisation that then merely needs to be proof read, rather than pieced together almost from scratch, in the conscious mind). The problem is that he has taken the stuff it approach to all that garbled mental input and chooses to live on flawed gut instinct and bluster, something his privilege made possible.
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
Christmas really would come early. For the SNP.
The SNP need the Tories to have most seats in a hung parliament to have any power over Starmer, if Labour win most seats or get a majority the SNP would be as powerless as they are with the Tories in power
Suggestions that if the police get interested, the Grey investigation might be paused (pending the Met eventually deciding to do nothing). So a route to the long grass appears....
Yep. This is screaming out to me. Someone brighter than Johnson has come up with a wheeze.
Could be next year before a criminal inquiry concludes.
Suddendly Dick will be in favour of police involvement once the call goes in from Downing Street.
Sue Grey needs to publish tonight.
I feel sick.
Don't feel sick. Its fairly simple. If Dibble start to investigate it is because of the self-evident evidence. Which someone* will leak in a publish and be damned poke at the "we can't talk now its sub judice" shield.
It won't wash. Will all be over before then. Dom is waiting for the government to twat about sufficiently before dumping the video footage of Boris laughing at how "socially distanced" they all are.
Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.
And there was I thinking Sunak couldn't get any shorter
Surely the likely candidates for a leadership election today are Sunak and Baker (the ERG mad fringe).
It won't be Baker - he's a behind the scenes operator, not a front man - but it will be someone from that faction.
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
Harper has run before and clearly wants to run again.
Hasn't got the RW appeal. Here's the Blue Collar Conservative MPs list - McVey is the founder, Harper isn't even a member.
There are around 90 MPs on that list. Not all of them would support her of course but that's a decent chunk of the base and you have some vocal RW MPs on the leadership board (Rowley, Davidson, Bradley) who aren't shy at coming forwards. Get IDS giving support and that will help with another part of the base.
Do you think there are any other prospects?
Good question and I have been thinking that on the bets. I am also certain someone from that grouping will stand and they have the numbers but the other pushy ones (so Davidson etc) are too young. I put some covering money on Baker in case I am wrong but, as I said, I am not convinced and others have flagged about his seat. I can't see Brady standing and ditto on the seat. I can't think of other prospects.
If it does happen, I think the other candidate will be Javid. I don't think Sunak has the appeal amongst the MPs and to the RW in particular. Javid might and he would be a candidate that the "establishment" Tory MPs could gather around plus he would negate some of McVey's strengths, especially given his background. However, he is an ex-banker and (I have to be careful here) he worked at Deutsche....
Hasn't Brady said he's retiring at the next election? Could be wrong, but sure I read that.
I can't remember, it wouldn't surprise me. But I don't think he would run anyway.
Was that ever true? Really? That you could stand two metres from someone if you didn’t know them but not if you did know them? It’s so long ago and much water has flowed under Westminster Bridge, but if that were ever true, it’s even more bonkers than I ever dared believe.
It is completely true. You were allowed to meet one person from outside your household as long as you stayed 2 metres apart. As you were allowed to beach, the park, on picnics etc etc on May 20, 2020 you were obviously going to be 2 metres from people that you did not know, and that was ok. Clearly the police were never going to enforce any of these rules.
Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.
This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"
As pointed out frequently, at the time, the use of long lenses to foreshorten perspective and make people appear to be closer to each other than they really were, was a standard create-a-story tactic.
If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.
The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.
The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....
The point is though the end of May 2020 was not the "height of lockdown" and you could sit on a beach 2 metres from everyone and drink beer.
It's worth looking at the Bournemouth Beach on Google Earth aerial views. Those groynes are getting on for 200m apart. Those people are nothing like as close together as they appear.
I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical. Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.
The Downing St garden, looking at Google maps, is around 30,000 sq ft. That’s room for more than 3,000 people all sitting 6’ apart!
Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.
And we are back on dodgy maths. If it were 300 x 100 ft, then you could array people 50 x 15, so 750, if its a simple grid. That may not be the best space filling model, but I struggle to get that to 3000.
Dodgy maths indeed, but not mine. To be 6’ from one another, a person needs to sit in the middle of 9 sq ft, 3’ x 3’. People 6’ apart can nearly touch their fingers if they stretch.
Either way, the garden is way bigger than required for a socially distanced event, for people who have spent the day working in close proximity to each other indoors.
I was working on a packing structure, buy maybe the grid is a poor choice? You've gone with the circles, but that will also leave some gaps - the circles have holes around them! This used to be a 1st yr chemistry practical.
And looking again - each person with a 3 ft radius occupies 3.141 x 3 x 3, about 28 square ft. So up to 1000, but that ignores the gaps...
No; each person needs to be in a circle of radius 3.3 feet - it's 2m social distancing remember. That is an area of 35 square feet per person. Then you need to work out the 2-d close packing of those circles touching, which would 'waste' some of the garden space. To a crude approximation you could put each person in a square of 2 x 2m which would be 44 sq feet per person. 681 people. So TT has it about right. But then there is no way to get at the drinkies or food. So you need to make sure each person can access an open lane to the food etc - and that has to be two-way, with passing places at least - but they are getting pissed, so make it two way. THat makes half as many. And deduct a bit for the garden walls, fountains, stachoo of Churchill, etc. We're getting down to 300-odd.
Hexagonal packing is the most efficient.
Area of a hexagon with side to side dimension of 2m is 3.46m2 or 37.3 sq feet.
I do wonder if Boris actually reads any of his emails though. Government by WhatsApp innit?
Is that 'garden' just a patch of lawn? Are there no flowering shrubs, trees, flower beds and so on? Must reduce the available standing space, surely.
If we're assuming that people can stand still in a hexagonal lattice for a party, I think we can assume that they can stand in a flower bed!
Have you considered stacking them vertically?
Presumably, if we give each guest sufficient negative electromagnetic charge (or positive, I'm not bothered) then they would naturally stay 3 feet apart, and when more were introduced into the garden than could fit in a horizontal lattice would naturally start to stack up vertically. We'd need some big rubber sheeting to stop them earthing. This would also protect the flower beds. Physicists may be able to refine this approach ( @Fysics_Teacher , are you there?)
Back in the good old days, Boris's hair did look like he'd had intimate relationships with a Van Der Graaf generator.
Bigging up Sue Grey's integrity and independence raises the stakes for her
A thought occurs to me that my expectation had been that Sue Gray is very canny so was there to defuse the bomb with a carefully worded report where some deputy heads roll but the leaders are essentially protected.
That is still my presumption, but I wonder if she is just tempted now to finish him on the basis that he is past the point of no return anyway? She'd potentially be preserving the system, and her own position, by making Johnson himself the scapegoat.
Comments
The trajectory is clear in many European countries - very, very fast increase in cases.
However...
In earlier "waves" that completely overwhelmed areas (parts of Italy, Brazil, for example) the total numbers infected didn't reach 50%. As measured by antibody surveys afterwards.
Why this is, is up for debate. And whether this holds true for the Winne-The-Pooh variant, is anyones guess.
My guess is that the peak will be before 50%. A guess. That and £2.50 will buy you a coffee. In some places...
We seem to have reached peak infection in this country. The difference between this country and some others in Europe is largely that the vaccinated and boosted take-up in the older groups is very high. The metric to look at is not overall numbers, but those who are most vulnerable.
Which will reduce the casualties from this wave massively. The increase in hospitalisations for the unvaccinated children shows an... "echo" of what we avoided.
In an interview with STV, Sturgeon apparently suggested that learning to live with the virus still involved some longer-term adjustments to normal life. She said:
Sometimes when you hear people talk about learning to live with Covid, what seems to be suggested is that one morning we’ll wake up and not have to worry about it anymore, and not have to do anything to try to contain and control it.
That’s not what I mean when I say ‘learning to live with it’. Instead, what we will have to ask ourselves is what adaptations to pre-pandemic life – face coverings, for example – might be required in the longer-term to enable us to live with it with far fewer protective measures.
No interest in getting rid of all the rules, you will note, just having fewer of them. She's showing dangerous signs of adopting the Susan Michie approach to public health advocated last Summer, i.e. that masks and social distancing should continue forever. Note also the shift in language from 'restrictions' to 'protections'. All very iSAGE.
Down here we have a careless, cavalier buffoon in charge. Up there they have a sanctimonious, nit-picking council health and safety bureaucrat. God help the lot of us.
A smart move, I think, to get in first.
Wycombe: Overview
PREDICTION: LAB GAIN FROM CON
MP at 2019: Steve Baker (CON)
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate: 78,098
Turnout: 70.1%
Chance of winning
CON
32%
LAB
67%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
Reform
0%
Agreed that MP pay rises is possibly the crunch point for Johnson. Members are not exempt from the laws of inflation, and even though they no longer vote on their own pay, it’s still a huge political issue.
Probability of possible outcomes
Labour majority 44%
Lab minority 43%
Conservative majority 7%
No overall control 6%
Why is Lab Maj still 6/1?
I've put some money on McVey at 130/1 with the booster from Ladbrokes. Realise that will be seen as a joke but (1) she is from the ERG / anti-lockdown faction (2) has been a driver of the Blue Collar Tory agenda and faction, which helps with the RW MPs (3) she can point to having been in the Cabinet (regardless of record) and (4) we know she did at least want the job at some point. Yes, she was sh1t last time and maybe Lorraine Kelly will pipe in but that is priced in. She would also drive Labour nuts and, as a bonus, might create problems for Starmer (educated London barrister vs gobby scouser).
Please explain it to me in words of one syllable. I’m a bit simple.
And the fact that polemical nastiness is seem as something valued and to be emulated just shows how social media has degraded politics. Who cares about evidence and reason and insight when you can "own" someone with a well placed insult?
Take them down.
Let's hope Graham Brady's postman has a strong back.
But 130/1 is a bloody decent shout.
Like Dick is going actually going to investigate.
FFS.
See this - I sorted on Country and included some data for England as a comparison
@DPJHodges
·
21m
Mood hardening amongst Tory MPs. Message I’m hearing a lot is “we’ll let him draw a line under Omicron, Then he’s gone”.
EDIT: I see others have already made this point
A. 2. More than that would be illegal.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Collar_Conservativism
There are around 90 MPs on that list. Not all of them would support her of course but that's a decent chunk of the base and you have some vocal RW MPs on the leadership board (Rowley, Davidson, Bradley) who aren't shy at coming forwards. Get IDS giving support and that will help with another part of the base.
Was the PM there or not? Was he a recipient of the email or not? Did he know the email had been sent or not? You do not need an investigation for that.
It'd probably do him more good.
See the misogynistic attacks on Thatcher, for example.
Perhaps it (the investigation) would be faster if Sue Gray investigated the days when there weren't parties at No. 10?
What he has, in my view, is a very deep and unshakeable conviction that he is special, and that rules applying to others do not apply to him. This infects his logic. The logic of his position is that what is okay for him would not have been okay for May and Cameron, as they are not special and the rules do apply to them. It isn't stupidity as a failure of logic - it's a correct conclusion if you accept the premise, and the premise isn't an intellectual one, but a very strong psychological feeling.
And has been since the Civil Service was invented.
If it does happen, I think the other candidate will be Javid. I don't think Sunak has the appeal amongst the MPs and to the RW in particular. Javid might and he would be a candidate that the "establishment" Tory MPs could gather around plus he would negate some of McVey's strengths, especially given his background. However, he is an ex-banker and (I have to be careful here) he worked at Deutsche....
Could be next year before a criminal inquiry concludes.
Suddendly Dick will be in favour of police involvement once the call goes in from Downing Street.
Sue Grey needs to publish tonight.
I feel sick.
Fixed that for you. No charge.
The reality is that there was a party and the PM is trying to find a million different ways to not quite say Yes.
It really just needs Starmer or whoever is asking questions whether Boris attended a party in the Garden of No 10 Downing Street on May 20th 2020.
And then use every other question to ask the exact same question until Boris says Yes or No.
Minus point for Javid (for the selectorate, not just for me) - he went quickly from being seen as reliably lockdown sceptic to worryingly lockdown-enthusiastic.
His ADHD is part of the problem but not necessarily the core one. (and, btw, it is not lack of brain area, but a deficit of meaningful subconscious help in turning a stream of tasks and ideas into some kind of organisation that then merely needs to be proof read, rather than pieced together almost from scratch, in the conscious mind). The problem is that he has taken the stuff it approach to all that garbled mental input and chooses to live on flawed gut instinct and bluster, something his privilege made possible.
It won't wash. Will all be over before then. Dom is waiting for the government to twat about sufficiently before dumping the video footage of Boris laughing at how "socially distanced" they all are.
http://www.vandergraafgenerator.co.uk/
Their latest album, The Charisma Years, is a collector's item.
Lickspittle General
“The PM is going nowhere. He retains the confidence of the people of this country”
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1480886310529388546
That is still my presumption, but I wonder if she is just tempted now to finish him on the basis that he is past the point of no return anyway? She'd potentially be preserving the system, and her own position, by making Johnson himself the scapegoat.