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Johnson exit date betting moves sharply to 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • glw said:

    Hmmm.

    Novak Djoković claims to have been tested positiv for Covid on the 16th of December.
    However the timestamp for the digital version of his positiv test indicates the result may actually be from the 26th of December.
    Our reporting @derspiegel in german https://t.co/NnvY0vc09G

    — Max Hoppenstedt (@m_hoppenstedt) January 11, 2022


    The chances of novax having been telling the whole truth is about as likely as Boris and party-gate.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Hospitals

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  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375

    PB Boris Fan Club Membership Numbers - 1

    I Like Boris but am not currently a fan club member.

    If I join are there any perks??
    A weekend in Epping, all expenses paid.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    MaxPB said:

    Have to say, the drop off in Wales stretches credibility quite a bit. May have to rely on the ONS reports alone now for what is happening there.

    It's a big enough emergency to restrict lives, but not enough to need stable statistics apparently - they'd rather fiddle the trend with a definition change mid 'crisis'.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Deaths

    image
    image
  • Lewis Hamilton will not decide whether to return to Formula 1 this season until he sees the results of an inquiry into the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

    Hamilton is "disillusioned" with F1, his Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has said, as a result of last year's title-deciding race.

    Hamilton lost the championship to Red Bull's Max Verstappen after FIA race director Michael Masi did not apply the rules correctly in a late safety-car period.

    Insiders say Hamilton has lost trust in the governing body as a result.

    Mercedes declined to comment on the situation surrounding Hamilton's future when approached by BBC Sport.

    The team and Hamilton are said to be aligned on the issue and waiting to see what action the FIA takes to address the matters raised by the Abu Dhabi race.

    The FIA has launched an inquiry into the events at Yas Marina and is aware both of Hamilton's unhappiness and that it has a big task on its hands to win back the seven-time champion's confidence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/59951382

    Personally I'd want Michael Masi exiled to Rockall and Toto Wolff appointed Race Director for the season.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,991
    edited January 2022

    PB Boris Fan Club Membership Numbers - 1

    I Like Boris but am not currently a fan club member.

    If I join are there any perks??
    A weekend in Epping, all expenses paid.
    I never trusted them ever since the one time I voted for them and I never received my baby to eat. So I wouldn't trust any promises of all expenses paid trips.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Age related data

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  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    Regarding yesterday's revelations, the Prime Minister...

    Should resign: 66%
    Should not resign: 24%

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 11 Jan

    Is SKS still in the 24% or has he changed his mind yet?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277
    edited January 2022

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This Chairman of the Sunderland Tories is putting in a shift going studs up on all feeble excuses.
    Btw. The poshest Mackem I've ever heard.

    Mind you. Final question.
    "Who wins the Tories their next 80 seat majority?"
    "Penny Mordaunt."
    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Scotland has de-criminalised some kinds of meeting. What on earth was the point of all that?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    This thread has decided to hold a party outside

  • Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MP doesn’t know whether she attended Downing St Party https://twitter.com/RosieisaHolt/status/1480932023929823244/video/1

    That good?
    I can remember being drunk enough to not remember who had just left the room to go to the loo but not drunk enough to not remember that. If you know what I mean.

    But to answer did you go with "Its being investigated, I don't know if I was there, its the age-old question" is genuinely piss funny. This "its being investigated and we have to wait for the results" is not a response to questions like that. Where do parties find such gifted candidates to become MPs?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    PB Boris Fan Club Membership Numbers - 1

    I Like Boris but am not currently a fan club member.

    If I join are there any perks??
    Well you're now one of the few on the site worthy of the title "true Tory", so congratulations.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652


    Dr Samantha Haley-Horsfall 💙
    @sammypops
    ·
    20h
    May 2020. 9 weeks away from home. Trying to save lives. And they partied??I baked in these suits. I wept. I was isolated. We rationed PPE. We watched people die. I developed PTSD. We couldn’t even get a second phone line for the ward. AND THEY PARTIED???? #DowningStreetParties

    Twitter will always have an audience for people who get offended about other people not acting as if they have clinical depression.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    PB Boris Fan Club Membership Numbers - 1

    I Like Boris but am not currently a fan club member.

    If I join are there any perks??
    A weekend in Epping, all expenses paid.
    Theydon Bois is, as we've discussed before, quite a pleasant community on the edge of Epping Forest. Probably best bringing a tent; don't think there are many decent hotels.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Scott_xP said:

    MP doesn’t know whether she attended Downing St Party https://twitter.com/RosieisaHolt/status/1480932023929823244/video/1

    omg.

    She will not admit to being at the party until the investigation decides there was a party?

    Was the party called Schroedinger's Party?
  • Lewis Hamilton will not decide whether to return to Formula 1 this season until he sees the results of an inquiry into the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

    Hamilton is "disillusioned" with F1, his Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has said, as a result of last year's title-deciding race.

    Hamilton lost the championship to Red Bull's Max Verstappen after FIA race director Michael Masi did not apply the rules correctly in a late safety-car period.

    Insiders say Hamilton has lost trust in the governing body as a result.

    Mercedes declined to comment on the situation surrounding Hamilton's future when approached by BBC Sport.

    The team and Hamilton are said to be aligned on the issue and waiting to see what action the FIA takes to address the matters raised by the Abu Dhabi race.

    The FIA has launched an inquiry into the events at Yas Marina and is aware both of Hamilton's unhappiness and that it has a big task on its hands to win back the seven-time champion's confidence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/59951382

    Personally I'd want Michael Masi exiled to Rockall and Toto Wolff appointed Race Director for the season.

    Nick de Vrys and George Russell as team mates would be an exciting proposition. Though the grid would definitely miss Serlewis "I can pass the lot of you twice" Hamilton. He's head and shoulders above Vettel, the Michael, Prost and Mansell. Perhaps only Senna in the modern era had the same sheer talent, driving ability and social conscience as Hamilton does.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    COVID summary

    - Cases. Confirmation that cases are actually falling. Seems to be cross regional, with even the North East slowing to level.
    - Admissions. R is close to 1.0
    - MV beds. Trending down
    - Deaths. Going up, and will continue to do so for a while.

    image
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    JohnO said:

    FWIW - As the self-proclaimed doyen of the pb Tories (longest serving poster anyway), I now think that Johnson should go.

    I still chuckle thinking about your post at the last local election: 'Thought long and hard, pen hovering over the ballot paper, and as marginally the least worst option, reluctantly voted for myself'

    Well deserved 25 likes which I am guessing might be a record.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    MikeL said:

    Headline figures - 121k cases, 379 deaths*.

    Admission and mechanical beds in England still flat.

    * this big number again looks like its lots of backfilling. As by date of death is in the range 130-170 for a week.

    Date of Death:

    4 Jan - 179
    5 Jan - 178
    6 Jan - 185

    And those numbers will have further to rise as more data comes in.

    Deaths by date of death clearly now at their highest since beginning of March.
    But in March, that figure would have been around 100% death of COVID, and now, what? 50-60%?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    maaarsh said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    Javid is Kendal from Succession. Superficially plausible successor who fundamentally lacks balls.
    who is the creepy pervert one
    Roman.
    I meant in the cabinet
    Can you narrow it down slightly?
    who among all of the many the likely candidates was most like the sleazy pervert Roman in Successsion
    Lol. The number one unquestioning fanboy of the creepy fat little man who was described by his QC as a "bully and sex pest" refers to another politician as "sleezy pervert". 😂😂😂😂😂😂
    F*** off and keep doing it scumbag
    Interesting how he, on the one hand is happy to continually have a go at you and how,you respond to some posters yet, on the other hand, is quite happy to troll and bait you for replies.
    I think it is unfair to say I continually have a go at him, I just have a go at him when I notice he is either unnecessarily rude to others or writes a load of crap. That is of course most of his posts, which as I am not on here all the time I don't get the pleasure of taking the piss out of continually. Nice of you to defend him, though I can reassure you he doesn't deserve your kindness.
    You are lying piece of crap. Stick to sucking others butt's on here it suits you better. People see you for what you are stalker.
    I haven't "stalked" you, you absurd, rude and unpleasant little toad. What did I lie about, or is that just another knee-jerk response from the biggest jerk on PB? I take the piss out of you not just because you are an ignorant fool, but because you are an exceptionally obnoxious one. You think abuse is a form of debate. I have regularly seen you attempt to bully others you disagree with on here with your child like abuse. I'll offer you a deal; quit being an obnoxious arse and I will quit taking the rise out of you. Have a lovely day.
    I say again F*** off lowlife peddle your crap elsewhere.
    I guess that is your idea of a "no" to my generous offer 😞😞. I am so disappointed.

    PS: I know your life is pretty busy with all the anger management sessions and so on, but please let me know if you would like me to recommend a grammarian to help with your punctuation and inappropriate capitalisation. Always here to help! Love and kisses xxx
    Sometimes I think PB should have a sister site, an adjacent chat room where people could carry out their personal vendettas and fights in private. It could also, for example, host debates on the difference between a village and a town.

    But I guess we'd miss the entertainment.
    You come for the betting tips and political insight, but you stay for the absurd discussions and ridiculous feuds.
    I think my favourite was the one involving Nigel and Ishmael a couple of months back. It erupted out of nowhere, raged with a frightening force for a short while, then subsided just as quickly. Much use of the term "micro-penis" as I recall. One was reminded of those famous spats between the likes of Kingsley Amis and John Pilger conducted via the letters page of the Times.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited January 2022
    On the leadership options, to me it seems to be a question of whether the Tories have a competence and experience emergency, looking at the number of potentially overwhelming problems coming down the line this year, that Stuart mentions, or whether they need a change of electoral "brand" first.

    If it's a competence emergency for the figure at the top, surely it would have to be Sunak or Hunt, from those left available.

    On the other hand, if the Tories need more of a radically different figurehead, to change the mood music, with more work being done below, that's where some of the potential wildcards might come in, and someone as yet not widely known, and as people have speculated on earlier on in these threads.

    Sunak might be one of the only people who ticks both boxes. possibly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Chair of Sunderland Conservatives says Boris has to go. For this "atrocity".

    HYUFD will be along to explain how the Chair of Sunderland Conservatives is actually not a True Tory and actually the red wall will only vote for Boris and actually where is Sunderland anyway actually.
    Every MP in Sunderland is already Labour
    Yeah, but the Tories in Sunderland are not much different to the Tories in Blyth and North Durham and Sedgefield and Redcar, etc.
    They are significantly different to many of them, plenty of rural Tory voters in Sedgefield or North Durham for instance, no rural Tory voters in Sunderland
    There are a lot, just not enough to give the Tories a seat in 2019 (or ever given that 2019 will be the high watermark for the Tory party now Boris has destroyed it).
    There are no villages in any Sunderland seat
    Laughable. There are no villages in "Houghton and Sunderland South"? I used to live there. Houghton-le-Spring is a village. Hetton-le-Hole. Shiney Row. Newbottle. New Herrington. And how do you know the farmers don't vote Tory?

    You don't have talk some fact-free bollocks. Have you ever stopped and thought "I don't actually know anything at all about this, best to keep my comments specific"?
    Houghton is a town not a village
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houghton-le-Spring
    Note that only one of the names he cites has to be a village for your statement "There are no villages in any Sunderland seat" to be wrong.
    Shiney Row, Newbottle, and New Herrington seem to be villages indeed.

    Therefore the statement "There are no villages in any Sunderland seat" is wrong.
    Herrington is part of the Metropolitan city of Sunderland, not really a village.

    It does not have its own parish council for starters
    My Dad's village successful voted to abolish its Parish Council. What is it now? Do we have to think of a new name for it?
    Presumably it just renamed it a town council? Herrington has neither and is part of the metropolitan city of Sunderland
    No it was abolished altogether. The village had a referendum and dumped it.
    So who manages the toilets, village hall, war memorial, allotments, organises village events, maintains the village green etc? Not to mention the input parish councils have into local planning
    The district council, obviously. Or nobody. Depending on the function.
    The DC has to agree to take it over and employ the village groundsmen, toilet cleaners, upkeep the cemetery and war memorial and playground etc.

    Not having a parish council means a village would soon decline rapidly unless it has an active group of volunteers with the time to run and maintain everything
    There is not much further Byfleet can decline with or without a parish council.
    Yes, but at least with a PC they have people to blame.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908


    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Oh my - new polling from @SavantaComRes on BYOBgate:

    - 66% say Boris Johnson should resign following latest revelations - +12 since their last poll at Christmas

    - That includes 42% of 2019 Conservative voters (+9)

    - https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1480923563351760905

    More Conservative voters, even 2019 Conservative voters, do not think Boris should resign than think he should then
    The trend is only going up. You’re at risk of alienating 40% of your 2019 voting population and you think that’s good?
    As I said unless Labour are consistently 10%+ ahead there is no point replacing Boris. Especially as the membership might pick Truss over Sunak who would likely poll even worse
    Your dislike of Truss shining through and of course Boris should go

    I just do not see how you can defend the indefensible but then you are either in denial or just blind in loyalty
    Aren't you worried someone might point out your posting history from the last few years? For you to describe someone as 'blinded by loyalty' is odd when you both seem blinded by loyalty to the same cause. You've even made the same journey from dyed in the wool Remainer to even more died in the wool Leaver.

    Where the Tories go you two follow!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    18m
    Clear Omicron wave has now peaked. Clear we’re broadly on the same trajectory as South Africa. Clear SA experts were right, and UK experts were completely wrong.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497

    Regarding yesterday's revelations, the Prime Minister...

    Should resign: 66%
    Should not resign: 24%

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 11 Jan

    Is SKS still in the 24% or has he changed his mind yet?

    That’s a very fair point actually how much of the 24% are supporters of an opposition party about to have their fox shot and fun over with?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    7m
    First report of US outcomes for Omicron: ~53,000 cases in Southern California (vs Delta), consistent w/ S Africa and UK
    https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1
    ~50% less hospital admission from ER/out-patient
    ~75% less ICU admission
    ~70% reduction in hospital length of stay
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Here's a question for the PB Brains Trust...

    Was omicron's emergence a positive development?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    kinabalu said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    maaarsh said:

    Sunak, Javid and Baker shortening in Next PM market. Gove lengthening.

    Javid is Kendal from Succession. Superficially plausible successor who fundamentally lacks balls.
    who is the creepy pervert one
    Roman.
    I meant in the cabinet
    Can you narrow it down slightly?
    who among all of the many the likely candidates was most like the sleazy pervert Roman in Successsion
    Lol. The number one unquestioning fanboy of the creepy fat little man who was described by his QC as a "bully and sex pest" refers to another politician as "sleezy pervert". 😂😂😂😂😂😂
    F*** off and keep doing it scumbag
    Interesting how he, on the one hand is happy to continually have a go at you and how,you respond to some posters yet, on the other hand, is quite happy to troll and bait you for replies.
    I think it is unfair to say I continually have a go at him, I just have a go at him when I notice he is either unnecessarily rude to others or writes a load of crap. That is of course most of his posts, which as I am not on here all the time I don't get the pleasure of taking the piss out of continually. Nice of you to defend him, though I can reassure you he doesn't deserve your kindness.
    You are lying piece of crap. Stick to sucking others butt's on here it suits you better. People see you for what you are stalker.
    I haven't "stalked" you, you absurd, rude and unpleasant little toad. What did I lie about, or is that just another knee-jerk response from the biggest jerk on PB? I take the piss out of you not just because you are an ignorant fool, but because you are an exceptionally obnoxious one. You think abuse is a form of debate. I have regularly seen you attempt to bully others you disagree with on here with your child like abuse. I'll offer you a deal; quit being an obnoxious arse and I will quit taking the rise out of you. Have a lovely day.
    I say again F*** off lowlife peddle your crap elsewhere.
    I guess that is your idea of a "no" to my generous offer 😞😞. I am so disappointed.

    PS: I know your life is pretty busy with all the anger management sessions and so on, but please let me know if you would like me to recommend a grammarian to help with your punctuation and inappropriate capitalisation. Always here to help! Love and kisses xxx
    Sometimes I think PB should have a sister site, an adjacent chat room where people could carry out their personal vendettas and fights in private. It could also, for example, host debates on the difference between a village and a town.

    But I guess we'd miss the entertainment.
    You come for the betting tips and political insight, but you stay for the absurd discussions and ridiculous feuds.
    I think my favourite was the one involving Nigel and Ishmael a couple of months back. It erupted out of nowhere, raged with a frightening force for a short while, then subsided just as quickly. Much use of the term "micro-penis" as I recall. One was reminded of those famous spats between the likes of Kingsley Amis and John Pilger conducted via the letters page of the Times.
    There was a similar one between you and Leon as I recall? Again it subsided remarkably quickly, and is recalled only in the occasional passive-aggressive comment from Leon referencing hidden public houses in NW3.
  • eek said:


    The fact you have Rabb (What's Dover?) as number 3 tells you the scale of the problem. The Tories have very few options to turn to.

    That's not quite right, though. Even though they expelled/drove out much of the top talent, they still have Jeremy Hunt as a perfectly good, experienced, competent, politically savvy, you might even say oven-ready, PM. There's really no pickle, except for the one that the party has made for itself by deliberately shunning anyone with a grip on reality.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,126

    Scott_xP said:

    MP doesn’t know whether she attended Downing St Party https://twitter.com/RosieisaHolt/status/1480932023929823244/video/1

    omg.

    She will not admit to being at the party until the investigation decides there was a party?

    Was the party called Schroedinger's Party?
    My sole function today seems to be pointing out jokes missed by other posters....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908

    PB Boris Fan Club Membership Numbers - 1

    I Like Boris but am not currently a fan club member.

    If I join are there any perks??
    You get a free ticket to the Lulu Lytle closing down sale

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pct1uEhAqBQ
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    21m
    Have yet to find a Tory MP, Minister or Cabinet Minister who thinks Boris’s position is defensible or survivable.

    Funny that. They must have known about this before it became public. It didn't seem to bother them before. Any future PM candidate has questions to answer about what they knew and what they did (or didn't) do about it.
    Not necessarily. Whitehall was unusually quiet at the time with so much remote working. Word may well have got around but proving anything satisfactorily wouldn't be easy. In any case, what genuinely (as opposed to for political posturing purposes) would you expect a minister to do, other than perhaps ask No 10 WTF it thinks it's doing?
    Ah come on. A party for 100 people is pretty noticeable, but doubly so if you live above the shop.

    Even if you didn't know at the time, when the first story about a party came out, you would ask the question whether there was a party. You would have found out then.

    So what should a responsible minister do at that point. Probably resign if the collective decision was to lie about it or hide it. At the very list, your objection should be on the record.

    You either care about the laws you make or you don't.

    I'm not an ultra-cynical observer and commentator; I have been involved in elected politics and know most of the people involved to be pretty decent.

    Even so, on something like this, I think most ministers would want not to know precisely to avoid putting themselves in the kind of bind you suggest. They might be OK about hearing rumours second-hand and feed similar, conditionally-based comments back through the whips but to be the one to break the silence? That'd be a mightily big call.

    And I'm not defending the Tories here, other than that it happened to be them. The same kind of dynamics play out within any party.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,126

    Here's a question for the PB Brains Trust...

    Was omicron's emergence a positive development?

    My gut is a tentative yes; it shot the fox of the public health blob AND will likely hasten the return to normality due to the speed of infections.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    TimT said:

    MikeL said:

    Headline figures - 121k cases, 379 deaths*.

    Admission and mechanical beds in England still flat.

    * this big number again looks like its lots of backfilling. As by date of death is in the range 130-170 for a week.

    Date of Death:

    4 Jan - 179
    5 Jan - 178
    6 Jan - 185

    And those numbers will have further to rise as more data comes in.

    Deaths by date of death clearly now at their highest since beginning of March.
    But in March, that figure would have been around 100% death of COVID, and now, what? 50-60%?
    Are these numbers death with covid? Raghib Ali has been pointing to the more relevant number which is death certificates mentioning covid.
This discussion has been closed.