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Johnson exit date betting moves sharply to 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • glw said:

    Hmmm.

    Novak Djoković claims to have been tested positiv for Covid on the 16th of December.
    However the timestamp for the digital version of his positiv test indicates the result may actually be from the 26th of December.
    Our reporting @derspiegel in german https://t.co/NnvY0vc09G

    — Max Hoppenstedt (@m_hoppenstedt) January 11, 2022


    The chances of novax having been telling the whole truth is about as likely as Boris and party-gate.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    Hospitals

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  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,712

    I Like Boris but am not currently a fan club member.

    If I join are there any perks??
    A weekend in Epping, all expenses paid.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    MaxPB said:

    Have to say, the drop off in Wales stretches credibility quite a bit. May have to rely on the ONS reports alone now for what is happening there.

    It's a big enough emergency to restrict lives, but not enough to need stable statistics apparently - they'd rather fiddle the trend with a definition change mid 'crisis'.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    Deaths

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  • Lewis Hamilton will not decide whether to return to Formula 1 this season until he sees the results of an inquiry into the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

    Hamilton is "disillusioned" with F1, his Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has said, as a result of last year's title-deciding race.

    Hamilton lost the championship to Red Bull's Max Verstappen after FIA race director Michael Masi did not apply the rules correctly in a late safety-car period.

    Insiders say Hamilton has lost trust in the governing body as a result.

    Mercedes declined to comment on the situation surrounding Hamilton's future when approached by BBC Sport.

    The team and Hamilton are said to be aligned on the issue and waiting to see what action the FIA takes to address the matters raised by the Abu Dhabi race.

    The FIA has launched an inquiry into the events at Yas Marina and is aware both of Hamilton's unhappiness and that it has a big task on its hands to win back the seven-time champion's confidence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/59951382

    Personally I'd want Michael Masi exiled to Rockall and Toto Wolff appointed Race Director for the season.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,959
    edited January 2022

    A weekend in Epping, all expenses paid.
    I never trusted them ever since the one time I voted for them and I never received my baby to eat. So I wouldn't trust any promises of all expenses paid trips.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    Age related data

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  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Regarding yesterday's revelations, the Prime Minister...

    Should resign: 66%
    Should not resign: 24%

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 11 Jan

    Is SKS still in the 24% or has he changed his mind yet?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,672
    edited January 2022

    Highlights the pickle the Conservatives are in.

    Thought experiment- suppose BoJo were to announce his resignation tonight, leaving Omicron, Cost of Living, Tax rises, glorious post-Brexit future in the inbox.

    No time for a novice. Stretching the definition of "sufficiently experienced to hit the ground running" a bit, you have:
    Sunak
    Truss
    Raab
    Hunt
    Javid
    er...
    Gove
    um...
    May
    ... that's about it, isn't it?

    Suggesting junior ministers or backbench campaigners is self-indulgent frivolity.

    Realistically, it has to be Sunak or Truss, doesn't it? And that fight could pay off the national debt if you put it on Pay Per View.
    I think Raab would have been very well placed there but for *that* trip. That was one expensive holiday wasn't it? I bet JohnO told him not to go? ;)

    Realistically it will be Sunak. How he does I have no idea...
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Scotland has de-criminalised some kinds of meeting. What on earth was the point of all that?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,397

    This thread has decided to hold a party outside

  • Chris said:

    That good?
    I can remember being drunk enough to not remember who had just left the room to go to the loo but not drunk enough to not remember that. If you know what I mean.

    But to answer did you go with "Its being investigated, I don't know if I was there, its the age-old question" is genuinely piss funny. This "its being investigated and we have to wait for the results" is not a response to questions like that. Where do parties find such gifted candidates to become MPs?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197

    I Like Boris but am not currently a fan club member.

    If I join are there any perks??
    Well you're now one of the few on the site worthy of the title "true Tory", so congratulations.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729


    Dr Samantha Haley-Horsfall 💙
    @sammypops
    ·
    20h
    May 2020. 9 weeks away from home. Trying to save lives. And they partied??I baked in these suits. I wept. I was isolated. We rationed PPE. We watched people die. I developed PTSD. We couldn’t even get a second phone line for the ward. AND THEY PARTIED???? #DowningStreetParties

    Twitter will always have an audience for people who get offended about other people not acting as if they have clinical depression.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,257

    A weekend in Epping, all expenses paid.
    Theydon Bois is, as we've discussed before, quite a pleasant community on the edge of Epping Forest. Probably best bringing a tent; don't think there are many decent hotels.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,325
    Scott_xP said:

    MP doesn’t know whether she attended Downing St Party https://twitter.com/RosieisaHolt/status/1480932023929823244/video/1

    omg.

    She will not admit to being at the party until the investigation decides there was a party?

    Was the party called Schroedinger's Party?
  • Lewis Hamilton will not decide whether to return to Formula 1 this season until he sees the results of an inquiry into the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

    Hamilton is "disillusioned" with F1, his Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff has said, as a result of last year's title-deciding race.

    Hamilton lost the championship to Red Bull's Max Verstappen after FIA race director Michael Masi did not apply the rules correctly in a late safety-car period.

    Insiders say Hamilton has lost trust in the governing body as a result.

    Mercedes declined to comment on the situation surrounding Hamilton's future when approached by BBC Sport.

    The team and Hamilton are said to be aligned on the issue and waiting to see what action the FIA takes to address the matters raised by the Abu Dhabi race.

    The FIA has launched an inquiry into the events at Yas Marina and is aware both of Hamilton's unhappiness and that it has a big task on its hands to win back the seven-time champion's confidence.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/59951382

    Personally I'd want Michael Masi exiled to Rockall and Toto Wolff appointed Race Director for the season.

    Nick de Vrys and George Russell as team mates would be an exciting proposition. Though the grid would definitely miss Serlewis "I can pass the lot of you twice" Hamilton. He's head and shoulders above Vettel, the Michael, Prost and Mansell. Perhaps only Senna in the modern era had the same sheer talent, driving ability and social conscience as Hamilton does.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    COVID summary

    - Cases. Confirmation that cases are actually falling. Seems to be cross regional, with even the North East slowing to level.
    - Admissions. R is close to 1.0
    - MV beds. Trending down
    - Deaths. Going up, and will continue to do so for a while.

    image
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,313
    JohnO said:

    FWIW - As the self-proclaimed doyen of the pb Tories (longest serving poster anyway), I now think that Johnson should go.

    I still chuckle thinking about your post at the last local election: 'Thought long and hard, pen hovering over the ballot paper, and as marginally the least worst option, reluctantly voted for myself'

    Well deserved 25 likes which I am guessing might be a record.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    MikeL said:

    Date of Death:

    4 Jan - 179
    5 Jan - 178
    6 Jan - 185

    And those numbers will have further to rise as more data comes in.

    Deaths by date of death clearly now at their highest since beginning of March.
    But in March, that figure would have been around 100% death of COVID, and now, what? 50-60%?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,295

    You come for the betting tips and political insight, but you stay for the absurd discussions and ridiculous feuds.
    I think my favourite was the one involving Nigel and Ishmael a couple of months back. It erupted out of nowhere, raged with a frightening force for a short while, then subsided just as quickly. Much use of the term "micro-penis" as I recall. One was reminded of those famous spats between the likes of Kingsley Amis and John Pilger conducted via the letters page of the Times.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,871
    edited January 2022
    On the leadership options, to me it seems to be a question of whether the Tories have a competence and experience emergency, looking at the number of potentially overwhelming problems coming down the line this year, that Stuart mentions, or whether they need a change of electoral "brand" first.

    If it's a competence emergency for the figure at the top, surely it would have to be Sunak or Hunt, from those left available.

    On the other hand, if the Tories need more of a radically different figurehead, to change the mood music, with more work being done below, that's where some of the potential wildcards might come in, and someone as yet not widely known, and as people have speculated on earlier on in these threads.

    Sunak might be one of the only people who ticks both boxes. possibly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831
    kjh said:

    There is not much further Byfleet can decline with or without a parish council.
    Yes, but at least with a PC they have people to blame.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,103


    Your dislike of Truss shining through and of course Boris should go

    I just do not see how you can defend the indefensible but then you are either in denial or just blind in loyalty
    Aren't you worried someone might point out your posting history from the last few years? For you to describe someone as 'blinded by loyalty' is odd when you both seem blinded by loyalty to the same cause. You've even made the same journey from dyed in the wool Remainer to even more died in the wool Leaver.

    Where the Tories go you two follow!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    18m
    Clear Omicron wave has now peaked. Clear we’re broadly on the same trajectory as South Africa. Clear SA experts were right, and UK experts were completely wrong.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    Regarding yesterday's revelations, the Prime Minister...

    Should resign: 66%
    Should not resign: 24%

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 11 Jan

    Is SKS still in the 24% or has he changed his mind yet?

    That’s a very fair point actually how much of the 24% are supporters of an opposition party about to have their fox shot and fun over with?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Eric Topol
    @EricTopol
    ·
    7m
    First report of US outcomes for Omicron: ~53,000 cases in Southern California (vs Delta), consistent w/ S Africa and UK
    https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1
    ~50% less hospital admission from ER/out-patient
    ~75% less ICU admission
    ~70% reduction in hospital length of stay
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Here's a question for the PB Brains Trust...

    Was omicron's emergence a positive development?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    kinabalu said:

    I think my favourite was the one involving Nigel and Ishmael a couple of months back. It erupted out of nowhere, raged with a frightening force for a short while, then subsided just as quickly. Much use of the term "micro-penis" as I recall. One was reminded of those famous spats between the likes of Kingsley Amis and John Pilger conducted via the letters page of the Times.
    There was a similar one between you and Leon as I recall? Again it subsided remarkably quickly, and is recalled only in the occasional passive-aggressive comment from Leon referencing hidden public houses in NW3.
  • eek said:


    The fact you have Rabb (What's Dover?) as number 3 tells you the scale of the problem. The Tories have very few options to turn to.

    That's not quite right, though. Even though they expelled/drove out much of the top talent, they still have Jeremy Hunt as a perfectly good, experienced, competent, politically savvy, you might even say oven-ready, PM. There's really no pickle, except for the one that the party has made for itself by deliberately shunning anyone with a grip on reality.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,173

    omg.

    She will not admit to being at the party until the investigation decides there was a party?

    Was the party called Schroedinger's Party?
    My sole function today seems to be pointing out jokes missed by other posters....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,103

    I Like Boris but am not currently a fan club member.

    If I join are there any perks??
    You get a free ticket to the Lulu Lytle closing down sale

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pct1uEhAqBQ
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,111
    Jonathan said:

    Ah come on. A party for 100 people is pretty noticeable, but doubly so if you live above the shop.

    Even if you didn't know at the time, when the first story about a party came out, you would ask the question whether there was a party. You would have found out then.

    So what should a responsible minister do at that point. Probably resign if the collective decision was to lie about it or hide it. At the very list, your objection should be on the record.

    You either care about the laws you make or you don't.

    I'm not an ultra-cynical observer and commentator; I have been involved in elected politics and know most of the people involved to be pretty decent.

    Even so, on something like this, I think most ministers would want not to know precisely to avoid putting themselves in the kind of bind you suggest. They might be OK about hearing rumours second-hand and feed similar, conditionally-based comments back through the whips but to be the one to break the silence? That'd be a mightily big call.

    And I'm not defending the Tories here, other than that it happened to be them. The same kind of dynamics play out within any party.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,173

    Here's a question for the PB Brains Trust...

    Was omicron's emergence a positive development?

    My gut is a tentative yes; it shot the fox of the public health blob AND will likely hasten the return to normality due to the speed of infections.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TimT said:

    But in March, that figure would have been around 100% death of COVID, and now, what? 50-60%?
    Are these numbers death with covid? Raghib Ali has been pointing to the more relevant number which is death certificates mentioning covid.
This discussion has been closed.