Johnson exit date betting moves sharply to 2022 – politicalbetting.com
Johnson exit date betting moves sharply to 2022 – politicalbetting.com
Another day and another report of alleged lockdown violations by the Prime Minister last summer and still Johnson survives. But as can be seen from the betting chart 2022 has now moved to favourite for his exit.
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Johnson might still ride this out though. It would have sunk him at the time, I think. But with few restrictions now, perhaps this can be survived.
The remainder still voting Tory are diehard anti restrictions voters on the whole. Indeed prominent anti Covid restrictions campaigner Adam Brooks already is concerned this is a plot to replace Boris with a pro restrictions PM eg Hunt or Gove or Javid.
https://twitter.com/EssexPR/status/1480705424332673024?s=20
Unless Labour gets a 10% + poll lead from this Boris will likely avoid a VONC
Did OGH ?
AP is safer than driving the Tesla yourself. AP averages 1 accident every 4.5 million miles while humans do 1 every 1.2 million miles.
https://www.legalcheek.com/2022/01/nq-lawyer-pay-at-mayer-brown-hits-105k/
Apart from more confirmation Boris is a wally, he also have confirmation the civil service is utterly out of touch, and were never personally scared at all whilst they were busy trying to scare the living daylights out of the whole country.
Similarly for Truss.
This will have a major effect on the betting value for either of them. Any replacement for BJ will have to be completely clean on this one.
@PadTheHoundsman ... I know I'm late to this discussion thread (and post only rarely anyway), but I need to get this off my chest.
It's not that the UK's Covid rules were wrong - they weren't - but that the cavalier attitude towards them demonstrated by the people in charge of running the top political offices in the country speaks volumes about their commitment to running a properly constructed and effective government. That the PM, a man who himself had only recently experienced the full force of Covid, should have so little empathy with the people he works with that he was prepared for them to risk the same outcome in the name of a large social gathering - something that was illegal for the rest of us - is horrifying. Even if you were to give him the benefit of what little doubt there is and take the view that he attended because he believed he was immune and wasn't a personal threat to anyone doesn't absolve him of the responsibility for allowing the event to go ahead in the first place.
The current strata of people who are running the country - not just the politicians but the special advisors and senior civil servants whose stunning lack of self awareness in the face of a deadly worldwide pandemic is now visible with the light of a thousand suns - should all, to a man, shuffle off into a deep and meaningless retirement and let some people in to run the country who have a sense of professionalism, honour and pride in the quality of their work.
It's not that I carry a candle for the other lot all of a sudden (it's unlikely I ever will) but the PM and his coterie need to depart stage right immediately before they undermine whatever is left of the public's perceptions of the need for health and security in a pandemic that's simply not going to go away any time soon.
I'm a card carrying party member and I voted for him in the leadership election, but I'm now compelled to say BORIS OUT!
(*) to someone who's going to vote primarily on this issue
Trump
Hitler
Kane
Any other notorious teetotallers?
Below is from the Guardian in May 2020. People are outraged that people who worked together all day went and stood in a garden with a beer.
This is what average people were doing in "the height of lockdown"
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/gallery/2020/may/25/uk-crowds-enjoy-may-sunshine-lockdown-eases-in-pictures
Community safety officers, employed by the local council, patrol the beach to ensure physical distancing measures are adhered to and visitors do not drink alcohol
The pictures are: Hitler, Trump, Boris, OGH
V senior Tory says: ‘It’s as bad as it gets. Fact Dowden was telling people what they couldn’t do from one room & less than hour later this was happening in garden is indefensible
Another: ‘Mood terrible -even those who profess loyalty to him are in despair
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1480850270280204288
It really matters to me that we drop restrictions and make it as hard as possible to bring them in in the future.
The Conservatives clearly don't really believe this as a point of principle - too many times in the past they've brought restrictions in far too easily on the basis of clearly dodgy evidence. They've brought things in measures for reasons of political expediency. (I don't say this as an outright criticism - that's how democracy works).
Labour have been very pro-restrictions, but I'd say also for reasons of political expediency.
But in a market where you have two parties responding to political expediency, it's not massively obvious why I should support the Tories when the Lib Dems have been consistently principled on the side that I would want them to be.
If the Tories were pragmatic and Labour were in the isage camp, I can see your argument. You'd vote Tory to keep the isage lot out as people voted Tory to keep Corbyn out. But I don't think Labour are in that camp. I disagree with their position, but I don't fear them. Which leaves me free to vote for a party which has taken a principled stand.
As for AP's safety: you need to be careful with comparisons. Firstly, how do you discern whether an accident occurred during AP or not, if it switched off a few seconds pre-impact? Secondly, Tesla owners are better off and may have different driving profiles to the average driver. Thirdly, Tesla cars are generally newer and should have fewer maintenance-related safety issues.
You really need to compare (say) Tesla under AP (perhaps where AP has been switched on during the journey) with similarly-priced cars of a similar age.
I am very bearish on true level-5 self-driving cars. As I've been for years (since the Darpa Grand Challenge); so far I've been correct.
I'll be wrong eventually.
Starting salary for a straight-out-of-training graduate lawyer in London: £150,000 pa.
General London law salaries up 89% last year.
(BBC Today)
Finish your day's work and see if 111 can get you an urgent care appointment...
If you took a picture from a drone (say) above that beach, what you would see is family groups with space between them.
The estimates are that 80-90% of people obeyed most of the rules, most of the time.
The most hilarious one of the genre was shot on a London Underground platform, where a long lens was used to create the impression that about 30 people boarding an empty train was a mob. The capacity of such trains is over 1,000.....
Xenophobes can moan for decades on end. So can internationalists.
However I understand lawyers at regional firms are getting miffed because some of their colleagues are being paid London salaries and only need to be in the office 1 day per week etc.
I’m not sure what’s happening with wages in the provinces.
You will also be saving us all money. And reducing load on the NHS.
All the medical conditions I have heard of are simpler and easier to treat the earlier they are dealt with. The longer you leave such a thing the more potential for expensive, longer term treatment.
Happily after surgery he is now fine. Its wise to be cautious about infection.
However the one rule for us and one rule for them is what is going to cause his huge problems, as is lying to the House.
Now, that's normally a resigning matter or possibly a suspension.
How disorganised and/or pissed do you need to be know to forget you attended a BYOB in your own house?
For those asking why it was BYOB, the PM has to pay for all the food and drinks he & his family, and friends consume in Downing Street except for state and official events.
This was done to save Boris Johnson money.
I knew one person who was holding neighbourhood* parties all the way through all the restrictions. Everyone else was being sensible.
*5-6 households were always round each others places.
He kept stressing that in his answers.
https://tinyurl.com/2p96sws2
Week-ending, 5-year average | COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths in excess of the average
24-Sep-21: 9,264 | 888 | 9,796 | 532
01-Oct-21: 9,377 | 783 | 9,727 | 350
08-Oct-21: 9,555 | 666 | 10,141 | 586
15-Oct-21: 9,811 | 713 | 10,464 | 653
22-Oct-21: 9,865 | 792 | 10,516 | 651
29-Oct-21: 9,759 | 859 | 10,128 | 369
05-Nov-21: 9,891 | 995 | 10,555 | 664
12-Nov-21: 10,331 | 1,020 | 11,030 | 699
19-Nov-21: 10,350 | 952 | 11,151 | 801
26-Nov-21: 10,380 | 817 | 10,650 | 270
03-Dec-21: 10,357 | 792 | 10,867 | 510
10-Dec-21: 10,695 | 764 | 11,166 | 471
17-Dec-21: 10,750 | 755 | 11,645 | 895
24-Dec-21: 11,548 | 591 | 12,419 | 871
31-Dec-21: 7,954 | 582 | 7,895 | -59
This was the first week that non-COVID deaths have been below the five-year average since 3 September (another bank holiday affected week).
Get well soon.
I remember going to Formby beach back in May 2020. I posted a few photos on facebook. Friends were baffled that they appeared to show no-one but my family on the beach. It occurred to me that I probably could have taken a photo which made it look crowded if I'd zoomed right in on one group - but really it wasn't in the least bit crowded. I expect this was fairly typical.
Those trying to whip up hysteria about crowding on the beaches are some of the minor villains of the whole affair.
I think Boris will be cleared. I've just been passed the statement that he's given to Sue Gray (and the Met):
1. I knew nothing about the party on May 20. I did not read the Reynold's email; I always just delete emails from him, because they are boring.
2. On the evening in question, at 6.30pm. Carrie and I took a glass of Chardonnay into our garden to enjoy the fine weather and discuss our family plans.
3. To my astonishment, dozens of people - SPADs, civil servants, and, I think, Mr Sunak and Ms Truss, were milling about enjoying drinks and snacks.
4. I took a very dim view of this rule-breaking. So I approached each participant individually and told them in no uncertain terms that, as soon as they had finished all their drinks and snacks, they must depart.
5. My strategy was successful; by 11pm, all the participants (except Sunak and Truss, I think) had dispersed, and I had nipped the rule-breaking in the bud.
6. End of statement.
Now they have staff back in the office......
AP sales for Tesla are declining through as their sales mix becomes increasingly dominated by the 3. That's a cheaper car which attracts buyers with less inclination to drop five figures on the AP upgrade. When AP goes to subscription the take up rate will be very high.
https://twitter.com/labourwhips/status/1480855305936588810
There are at least five potential further developments, all of which would have knock-on effects on each other, like billiard balls in a snooker game.
First, there is the question of whether Johnson has misled the Commons over his attendance at Downing Street parties. Second, this particular one draws Johnson more directly into Gray’s report.
Third, there is the possibility of police action (the Met has been in contact with the Cabinet Office). Fourth, Conservative MPs will be put on the spot by any Labour motion of censure.
Fifth, an increasingly restive Cabinet will react to any combination of the above. As, sixth, will any Tory MPs minded to write to Graham Brady in order to demand a ballot of confidence in their party leader.
What will perhaps concern Tory backbenchers most is that Number Ten appears to have no coherent defence. The best it can apparently offer to date is that the Prime Minister is entitled to use his own garden.
And Johnson now has little choice but to shake up his political team. I doubt that will help and could well harm. Either way, it may not be enough. His fabulous luck has a high melting point, but the heat of this fire is searing.
I understand and share the anger up and down the country at seeing No 10 staff seeming to make light of lockdown measures, and I can understand how infuriating it must be to think that people who have been setting the rules have not been following the rules because I was also furious...
Time for a change.
I'd say only about 25% of the members who tell me they voted for him, disagree,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMiKyfd6hA0
I like the 'as soon as they had finished all their drinks and snacks, they must depart'. So if you'd brought a 12-pack of Stella you were good for some time?
But, if the story stands up and it can't be shown that he knew in advance then he might get away with it, so it's an important statement. If he can be shown to have lied in the statement, then surely toast?
Even if I’m wrong by 50%, and it’s only 15,000 sq ft, that gives 100 people 150 sq ft each, about 25’ from each other.
The granting of Labour's urgent question on May 2020 drinks complicates that. Decision needed now on whether he'll come to Commons.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1480857083323072514