Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
Liz Truss is so committed to freedom and liberty that she believes peaceful protesters should be imprisoned, only those with government-approved ID should be able to vote and that the Home Secretary should have the right to secretly take away someone's British citizenship.
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
39% still in favour and 49% against when we have a Government who are the architects of Leave and Remain have thrown in the towel Extraordinary figures! When Remainers start mobilising and the issue becomes live I'd say on this evidence Return with all bells and whistles will be hot favourite.
Um no. This is fantasy land. The main issue with Brexit right now is that its implementation is connected so thoroughly with Johnson. Once he is gone the whole landscape changes. A less confrontational relationship with the EU, plus its own evolution into something even less attractive to the UK public will ensure there is no majority for rejoin when the time comes. Face it Roger, you are one of the dinosaurs after the comet has struck. You just haven't realised you are already extinct.
Really well said
It will be quite a few years (I'd say 10) before Brussels' gets over the assault to its self-image of a country daring even to consider leaving, never mind actually doing it. In the meantime we need to build mainly outside, whilst aiming for as good a relationship with Brussels as is feasible.
Plus there are plenty of internal problems the EuCo need to resolve, from trying to beat Eastern European countries into submission, to dealing with whatever ructions Macron is about to cause, and addressing Green Issues now that they backed away from some of their EU-wide climate things and made them optional by country.
If the EU is to survive as a net positive, it needs to be far more Eu a la carte.
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
I would have thought you were more likely to be RefUK than any of the main parties anyway
The only person on this entire site who seems to even care that RefUK exists and keeps talking them up is you.
They're an utter irrelevance or bad joke to everyone else it seems.
I'd have thought they might accept you as a parliamentary candidate
If Boris continues the success of the booster programme, with the UK having more adults receiving their booster than the EU and global average and avoids further significant restrictions then I think Boris will get something of a poll bounceback anyway. Including in the redwall
Sadly I believe Boris will curtail any bounce as he has damaged himself to the point of no return
Our family are very pro conservative but everyone has lost it with Boris
How many of your family who are not voting Conservative now though under Boris would vote Conservative under Sunak, Raab or Truss, likely to be the top 3 contenders to succeed him?
As so often you completely miss the point
They are not saying they will not vote conservative they are just confirming they have all lost it with Boris
You need to wake up and smell the coffee
According to your comments, there is no coffee. You’ll all vote Tory. Boris can safely ignore you.
It is certain non of us will vote for Starmer
But we can still exert pressure for Boris to go
I could see myself voting for Starmer even though I have been a centrist Tory most of my life. The problem for me is that by doing so I would also have to endorse a whole load of Corbynites and Angela Rayner. Not sure I am quite there yet.
Using that argument, by voting Conservative, you have to endorse a whole load of swivel-eyed loons on the Tory benches.
You vote for the leadership, the manifesto and the local candidate. Not every fellow-traveller wearing the same rosette.
A fair comment, though when I was a Tory activist and voter I knew that the swivel-eyed loons were very much in the minority. They are now not so, and we have a man who is totally unfit for office as leader. If the Tories kick out the clown and someone sensible takes over and Rees Mogg is returned to back benches then I could return to voting for them. If Labour do a really good job in convincing me that the Corbynites are emasculated and Rayner is nowhere near power I could seriously consider voting for them. My little vote (and possibly quite a few others) is genuinely "floating"
Not only are the Corbynites emasculated at parliamentary level, this is also happening on the NEC and increasingly at constituency level too. On the latter point, mainly because a lot of them have skulked off back to whichever fringe outfit they came from or have been expelled/suspended.
Yes, my CLP remains strongly Corbynite at officer level - sadly; they are completely detached from the new reality, and moan about Starmer all the time. But then they complain that there is not enough involvement from grass-roots members (it's a large membership). So the dozen activists are not happy with the 300 or so less-active members. They're struggling to cope with their lack of influence and will, I think, have gone within a year.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
See my post upthread.
I’m not sure there’s any ideological difference between Truss and Rishi.
There seems to be no viable red wall friendly candidate, although Javid could come through the middle of a leadership contest on the back of red wall MP votes.
I quite like Javid. Problem is that he bears a striking resemblance to Dr. Evil from Austin Powers
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
39% still in favour and 49% against when we have a Government who are the architects of Leave and Remain have thrown in the towel Extraordinary figures! When Remainers start mobilising and the issue becomes live I'd say on this evidence Return with all bells and whistles will be hot favourite.
Um no. This is fantasy land. The main issue with Brexit right now is that its implementation is connected so thoroughly with Johnson. Once he is gone the whole landscape changes. A less confrontational relationship with the EU, plus its own evolution into something even less attractive to the UK public will ensure there is no majority for rejoin when the time comes. Face it Roger, you are one of the dinosaurs after the comet has struck. You just haven't realised you are already extinct.
Really well said
It will be quite a few years (I'd say 10) before Brussels' gets over the assault to its self-image of a country daring even to consider leaving, never mind actually doing it. In the meantime we need to build mainly outside, whilst aiming for as good a relationship with Brussels as is feasible.
Plus there are plenty of internal problems the EuCo need to resolve, from trying to beat Eastern European countries into submission, to dealing with whatever ructions Macron is about to cause, and addressing Green Issues now that they backed away from some of their EU-wide climate things and made them optional by country.
If the EU is to survive as a net positive, it needs to be far more Eu a la carte.
Indeed and nobody can even start to think where the EU will be years down the line
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
39% still in favour and 49% against when we have a Government who are the architects of Leave and Remain have thrown in the towel Extraordinary figures! When Remainers start mobilising and the issue becomes live I'd say on this evidence Return with all bells and whistles will be hot favourite.
Um no. This is fantasy land. The main issue with Brexit right now is that its implementation is connected so thoroughly with Johnson. Once he is gone the whole landscape changes. A less confrontational relationship with the EU, plus its own evolution into something even less attractive to the UK public will ensure there is no majority for rejoin when the time comes. Face it Roger, you are one of the dinosaurs after the comet has struck. You just haven't realised you are already extinct.
Really well said
It will be quite a few years (I'd say 10) before Brussels' gets over the assault to its self-image of a country daring even to consider leaving, never mind actually doing it. .
Honestly, we're a laughing stock. To both the EU and the RoW.
It has been an almost unmitigated disaster. They all know it and so do most of us.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
See my post upthread.
I’m not sure there’s any ideological difference between Truss and Rishi.
There seems to be no viable red wall friendly candidate, although Javid could come through the middle of a leadership contest on the back of red wall MP votes.
I quite like Javid. Problem is that he bears a striking resemblance to Dr. Evil from Austin Powers
Personally I think he’s a bit of a lightweight. But I think Truss is an even lighterweight and Rishi is far too slick, so 🤷♂️
On topic of the last several threads I would speculate that Boris and the Tories may just be at a nadir at the moment. It is entirely possible if Omicron does not fill the hospitals and the government resists further restrictions in England that things may start to look very different in the New Year.
Our underlying problem is that Omicron and the response to it has caused our economy to stutter once again. But it seems that Omicron is going to blast through its hosts incredibly quickly and it may then fall equally quickly. If that happens the second half of January may well prove something like normal.
The problem for BoZo is that when (if) Covid finally recedes, what will be left in its place is the full horror of Brexit.
He has been "lucky" thus far...
Brexit is fine, you need to turn the page
It isn't fine, it is absolutely shit, but we do need to move on.
To be honest it will evolve over time and hopefully with an improved relationship but @Scott_P seems to vent his anger on a daily even hourly basis without realising that to most brexit has now happened for better or worse
Trouble is, it's not just Scott, is it?
The public view is that Brexit has been a mistake. Comfortable plurality, nearly a majority;
Normally in democratic politics, things that turn out to be thought of as mistakes by the public get reversed. The most obvious UK example is the Poll Tax.
There are very good reasons why Brexit isn't getting reversed now. But that's what's fascinating; how does a nation respond when it's made a mistake but can't / won't reverse it?
A refusal to talk about it (and an urging that others shut up as well) is one possible response, but I'm not sure it's a healthy one.
The demographic is also changing. The young are Remainers and the old are Leavers. In five to ten years we'll be begging to be allowed back in. Schengen Euro the lot. It's crucial Remainers keep banging on about it.
We won't, even the young at most would favour EFTA not the full Federal EU plus Eurozone now.
The fact rejoin cannot even get over 50% now (remember Remain got 48% even in 2016) says everything
39% still in favour and 49% against when we have a Government who are the architects of Leave and Remain have thrown in the towel Extraordinary figures! When Remainers start mobilising and the issue becomes live I'd say on this evidence Return with all bells and whistles will be hot favourite.
Um no. This is fantasy land. The main issue with Brexit right now is that its implementation is connected so thoroughly with Johnson. Once he is gone the whole landscape changes. A less confrontational relationship with the EU, plus its own evolution into something even less attractive to the UK public will ensure there is no majority for rejoin when the time comes. Face it Roger, you are one of the dinosaurs after the comet has struck. You just haven't realised you are already extinct.
Really well said
It will be quite a few years (I'd say 10) before Brussels' gets over the assault to its self-image of a country daring even to consider leaving, never mind actually doing it. .
Honestly, we're a laughing stock. To both the EU and the RoW.
It has been an almost unmitigated disaster. They all know it and so do most of us.
This is true, but the point that the EU seems to have learned nothing is also valid.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
Raab is toxic.
If you are right about Truss, then it will be Sunak v Javid.
Aye, well, cancelling levelling up has not gone down well.
Aside from Brexit and levelling up what are his actual policies anyway ?
Somerset rather than French brie?
Durham Camembert is very nice.
My Cornish Gouda remains unopened in the fridge...
Fridge is a bad place for cheese, though it has to be said, considerably better than next to a radiator.
I didn't know that. Presumably the fridge making factories and caves of France are at a temperature not dissimilar to that of a fridge, no?
I'm limiting myself to an extra mature cheddar and St Augur this year. May add a ripe brie if I can face another foray to the shop.
Underground refrigerator factories? Must be serious about them being a strategic asset, like Combe Down mines off the Box Tunnel.
depends on the cheese, but I think most are best at about 8 or 9 C, which some fridges are too cold for. even so should be taken out and left at room temp for 20 mins or so
WHO has had a worse pandemic than Ursula von der Leyen.
Which is quite impressive when you think about it.
I think Trump might have had a point about the WHO....
His point was that rich Western countries are using vaccines as boosters that could be used to vaccinate poorer countries. However it neglects the fact that rich Western countries (and middle-income South American ones) appear to have been hit hardest by the pandemic.
Boris has been transformed from electoral asset to electoral liability. Not because he has done any specific bad thing, but because people who had been holding onto lies as truth suddenly got a glimpse behind the curtain and realised they'd been had.
"Stand Up if you Hate Boris" is now a refrain sung with gusto multiple times every session at the darts. Astonishing how quickly he has collapsed into a figure to be scorned.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
Raab is toxic.
If you are right about Truss, then it will be Sunak v Javid.
I'm heading out shortly but there's this constant dialectic between who might be the best leader of the Conservative party and who might be most likely to get elected leader of the Conservative party. The former would meet the needs of the nation, the latter is at the behest of MPs and the membership many of whom are bone-headed loons on the far right. They're as dangerous to the tories as the Corbynistas are to Labour.
Until or unless they resolve that tension they will continue to choose duds.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
See my post upthread.
I’m not sure there’s any ideological difference between Truss and Rishi.
There seems to be no viable red wall friendly candidate, although Javid could come through the middle of a leadership contest on the back of red wall MP votes.
I quite like Javid. Problem is that he bears a striking resemblance to Dr. Evil from Austin Powers
Personally I think he’s a bit of a lightweight. But I think Truss is an even lighterweight and Rishi is far too slick, so 🤷♂️
Britain cries out for a great person, with destiny and history on their side, to lead us out of the abyss.
However, as we don't have one of them right now, let's look at the Saj.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
I have just collapsed my head into my hands
You think that waste of space Raab, who is likely to lose his seat, will be in the top two is a fantasy because you really do not like Truss
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
See my post upthread.
I’m not sure there’s any ideological difference between Truss and Rishi.
There seems to be no viable red wall friendly candidate, although Javid could come through the middle of a leadership contest on the back of red wall MP votes.
I quite like Javid. Problem is that he bears a striking resemblance to Dr. Evil from Austin Powers
Personally I think he’s a bit of a lightweight. But I think Truss is an even lighterweight and Rishi is far too slick, so 🤷♂️
Javid is a huge improvement on his predecessor, which just shows the depths the Tory party has plumbed since Johnson has taken over. It is possible that a relative unknown may spring up and does his speech with no notes! Stranger things have happened.
Hugo Gye @HugoGye · 10m Pressure on PM easing for the next few days as top scientists and opposition politicians back the wait-and-see approach with any new decisions deferred until after Xmas. Story @theipaper :
WHO has had a worse pandemic than Ursula von der Leyen.
Which is quite impressive when you think about it.
I think Trump might have had a point about the WHO....
His point was that rich Western countries are using vaccines as boosters that could be used to vaccinate poorer countries. However it neglects the fact that rich Western countries (and middle-income South American ones) appear to have been hit hardest by the pandemic.
….and that less vaccines for richer does not necessarily equate to greater quantities for poorer ones. They should be looking into how you get larger quantities of vaccines manufactured in the poorer regions. This may have a really positive impact on local economies post pandemic also
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
A valid point. However parties should remain true to core values. It is perfectly legitimate for them to say to the electorate that they accept the referendum, but that they think we should form a more positive relationship with all our EU/EEA trading partners and that at some point in the distant future if it looked in UK's interest to rejoin or to join EEA they would offer a referendum with three preferences: EU/EEA/None. That might be repellent to you, but not me.
If the government wanted to make the argument for EEA membership and a customs deal it could do so pretty simply 1. Its not the EU 2. Its not EU courts - EFTA is completely separate 3. Its not free movement - we will deport spongers who come here and don't work 4. EEA standards are the same as our standards - we've set the bar 5. We can massively cut red tape and make British exports competitive again 6. A big boost to jobs
The current government won't do it but I expect Sunak to do so fairly quickly. Perhaps even posing with a big pair of scissors (signed of course) ceremonially cutting through "EU Red Tape" to remove the reams and fucking reams of bullshit that we're all about to drown in next month.
Wow, Novavax saying they are finally on track for volume deliveries starting next month, both FDA and MHRA approval expected shortly. It's actually really good news because there's a lot of ineligible people for mRNA and viral vector that can get Novavax. Hopefully another couple of hundred thousand vulnerable people into the vaccine funnel from next month. It's a really good vaccine too, from the trial data. 91% efficacy after two doses against Delta, 97% against severe symptoms, third dose efficacy modelled as close to 100% against Delta so should be very good against Omicron as well.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
I have just collapsed my head into my hands
You think that waste of space Raab, who is likely to lose his seat, will be in the top two is a fantasy because you really do not like Trust
I know the party. Raab would be the main candidate of the right and would pick up about half the Boris vote from MPs from 2019 and a few Redwallers. Sunak would have picked up most of the Hunt vote amongst MPs from 2019 by the final rounds and most of the other half of the Boris vote.
Truss would get squeezed, there are simply not enough Libertarian Tory MPs to get her into the final 2 in my view
Boris has been transformed from electoral asset to electoral liability. Not because he has done any specific bad thing, but because people who had been holding onto lies as truth suddenly got a glimpse behind the curtain and realised they'd been had.
"Stand Up if you Hate Boris" is now a refrain sung with gusto multiple times every session at the darts. Astonishing how quickly he has collapsed into a figure to be scorned.
It surprises me how long it has taken. Always thought he was a complete twat that was a disaster for the Tories and the country
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
I have just collapsed my head into my hands
You think that waste of space Raab, who is likely to lose his seat, will be in the top two is a fantasy because you really do not like Trust
I know the party. Raab would be the main candidate of the right and would pick up about half the Boris vote from MPs from 2019 and a few Redwallers. Sunak would have picked up most of the Hunt vote amongst MPs from 2019 by the final rounds and most of the other half of the Boris vote.
Truss would get squeezed, there are simply not enough Libertarian Tory MPs to get her into the final 2 in my view
They are all 'of the right'. There's not a centrist amongst them.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
Raab is toxic.
If you are right about Truss, then it will be Sunak v Javid.
I'm heading out shortly but there's this constant dialectic between who might be the best leader of the Conservative party and who might be most likely to get elected leader of the Conservative party. The former would meet the needs of the nation, the latter is at the behest of MPs and the membership many of whom are bone-headed loons on the far right. They're as dangerous to the tories as the Corbynistas are to Labour.
Until or unless they resolve that tension they will continue to choose duds.
Given the Tories have just won 4 general elections in a row we don't need lectures from Labour supporters about picking duds as leaders!
An estimated 1.4 million people in the UK had COVID-19 in the week ending 16 December, according to the Office for National Statistics.
It is the highest number since comparable figures began in autumn 2020.
Around one in 45 people in private households in England had COVID in the week to 16 December, up from one in 60 the previous week.
One in 45 is equivalent to around 1.2 million people and is the highest number recorded since the ONS started estimating infection levels for England in May 2020.
In Wales, around one in 55 people is estimated to have had COVID in the week to 16 December.
This is unchanged from the previous week and below the recent record high of one in 40.
The estimate in Northern Ireland is one in 50 people, a figure that is also unchanged from the previous week and below the record high of one in 40 in August.
In Scotland it is one in 70, up from one in 80 the previous week and below September's peak of one in 45.
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
A valid point. However parties should remain true to core values. It is perfectly legitimate for them to say to the electorate that they accept the referendum, but that they think we should form a more positive relationship with all our EU/EEA trading partners and that at some point in the distant future if it looked in UK's interest to rejoin or to join EEA they would offer a referendum with three preferences: EU/EEA/None. That might be repellent to you, but not me.
If the government wanted to make the argument for EEA membership and a customs deal it could do so pretty simply 1. Its not the EU 2. Its not EU courts - EFTA is completely separate 3. Its not free movement - we will deport spongers who come here and don't work 4. EEA standards are the same as our standards - we've set the bar 5. We can massively cut red tape and make British exports competitive again 6. A big boost to jobs
The current government won't do it but I expect Sunak to do so fairly quickly. Perhaps even posing with a big pair of scissors (signed of course) ceremonially cutting through "EU Red Tape" to remove the reams and fucking reams of bullshit that we're all about to drown in next month.
I hope you are right. I would have been happy to stay in the EU, but also realise there is a considerable body of opinion that do not like that so EEA is a sensible compromise position. Can't see the Tories implementing though sadly. Too many fecking ideological swivel-eyes in both the parliamentary party and the activist base
Far be it from me to give advice to Tories - but as they are always telling Labour what they should do, I may as well.
I'd be delighted if Truss succeeds Johnson. I reckon it would almost guarantee a non-Tory government next time round, because I think she'd be found out as flimsy and shallow.
Somebody else mentioned Penny Mordaunt as a more formidable opponent, and I agree - I'd be much more worried about her than Truss. Interesting back story, bright, quite formidable but not dull and predictable. She's be a risky, but potentially winning, choice for the Tories. The men in contention are, by comparison, dull - maybe duller than Starmer, even.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
I have just collapsed my head into my hands
You think that waste of space Raab, who is likely to lose his seat, will be in the top two is a fantasy because you really do not like Trust
I know the party. Raab would be the main candidate of the right and would pick up about half the Boris vote from MPs from 2019 and a few Redwallers. Sunak would have picked up most of the Hunt vote amongst MPs from 2019 by the final rounds and most of the other half of the Boris vote.
Truss would get squeezed, there are simply not enough Libertarian Tory MPs to get her into the final 2 in my view
They are all 'of the right'. There's not a centrist amongst them.
None of the Labour contenders in 2019 were centrists either on that basis. Davey perhaps the closest of the main party leaders.
But in relative terms Starmer was the centrist as Sunak is on the Tory side
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
I have just collapsed my head into my hands
You think that waste of space Raab, who is likely to lose his seat, will be in the top two is a fantasy because you really do not like Trust
I know the party. Raab would be the main candidate of the right and would pick up about half the Boris vote from MPs from 2019 and a few Redwallers. Sunak would have picked up most of the Hunt vote amongst MPs from 2019 by the final rounds and most of the other half of the Boris vote.
Truss would get squeezed, there are simply not enough Libertarian Tory MPs to get her into the final 2 in my view
They are all 'of the right'. There's not a centrist amongst them.
None of the Labour contenders in 2019 were centrists either on that basis. Davey perhaps the closest of the main party leaders.
But in relative terms Starmer was the centrist as Sunak is on the Tory side
Ms Sturgeon is a centrist too - much more so than LDs.
Rather surprisingly there is a local by-election today. It's in New Forest and would normally be a safe Conservative seat. However a former Conservative councillor for the ward is standing as an Independent so anything could happen.
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
A valid point. However parties should remain true to core values. It is perfectly legitimate for them to say to the electorate that they accept the referendum, but that they think we should form a more positive relationship with all our EU/EEA trading partners and that at some point in the distant future if it looked in UK's interest to rejoin or to join EEA they would offer a referendum with three preferences: EU/EEA/None. That might be repellent to you, but not me.
If the government wanted to make the argument for EEA membership and a customs deal it could do so pretty simply 1. Its not the EU 2. Its not EU courts - EFTA is completely separate 3. Its not free movement - we will deport spongers who come here and don't work 4. EEA standards are the same as our standards - we've set the bar 5. We can massively cut red tape and make British exports competitive again 6. A big boost to jobs
The current government won't do it but I expect Sunak to do so fairly quickly. Perhaps even posing with a big pair of scissors (signed of course) ceremonially cutting through "EU Red Tape" to remove the reams and fucking reams of bullshit that we're all about to drown in next month.
I hope you are right. I would have been happy to stay in the EU, but also realise there is a considerable body of opinion that do not like that so EEA is a sensible compromise position. Can't see the Tories implementing though sadly. Too many fecking ideological swivel-eyes in both the parliamentary party and the activist base
I hear you. But ultimately the mouth-foamers are small state low regulation people. And we have gone from very low regulation trade to very high regulation trade with our biggest market.
Surely at some point once the harrumphing about sovrinty calms down they will look at the new normal and recognise that it is the literal antithesis of all they have worked for - cutting costs, red tape and bureaucracy. How tempting must it then be to get the big scissors and cut it all away?
Remember that their vision of a Singapore-on-Thames Britain doesn't work with massive cost and complexities of red tape trying business up in knots. They will have to give that up sooner or later.
Far be it from me to give advice to Tories - but as they are always telling Labour what they should do, I may as well.
I'd be delighted if Truss succeeds Johnson. I reckon it would almost guarantee a non-Tory government next time round, because I think she'd be found out as flimsy and shallow.
Somebody else mentioned Penny Mordaunt as a more formidable opponent, and I agree - I'd be much more worried about her than Truss. Interesting back story, bright, quite formidable but not dull and predictable. She's be a risky, but potentially winning, choice for the Tories. The men in contention are, by comparison, dull - maybe duller than Starmer, even.
Mark Harper is, for me, the ideal Tory leader.
I don't think he'll make it this time around. But I hope he tries - puts a marker down to succeed whoever wins...
Far be it from me to give advice to Tories - but as they are always telling Labour what they should do, I may as well.
I'd be delighted if Truss succeeds Johnson. I reckon it would almost guarantee a non-Tory government next time round, because I think she'd be found out as flimsy and shallow.
Somebody else mentioned Penny Mordaunt as a more formidable opponent, and I agree - I'd be much more worried about her than Truss. Interesting back story, bright, quite formidable but not dull and predictable. She's be a risky, but potentially winning, choice for the Tories. The men in contention are, by comparison, dull - maybe duller than Starmer, even.
Mark Harper is, for me, the ideal Tory leader.
I don't think he'll make it this time around. But I hope he tries - puts a marker down to succeed whoever wins...
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
A valid point. However parties should remain true to core values. It is perfectly legitimate for them to say to the electorate that they accept the referendum, but that they think we should form a more positive relationship with all our EU/EEA trading partners and that at some point in the distant future if it looked in UK's interest to rejoin or to join EEA they would offer a referendum with three preferences: EU/EEA/None. That might be repellent to you, but not me.
I would be delighted to be in the EEA. It is after all what I was advocating long before the referendum and I wrote a piece published on PB promoting it the day after the result.
Too many people, myself included, would see the inclusion of the EU option as some sort of trap. Put simply, after so many years by Europhiles, first denying the referendum and then attempting to ignore or subvert the result, there is no trust left at all.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
I have just collapsed my head into my hands
You think that waste of space Raab, who is likely to lose his seat, will be in the top two is a fantasy because you really do not like Trust
I know the party. Raab would be the main candidate of the right and would pick up about half the Boris vote from MPs from 2019 and a few Redwallers. Sunak would have picked up most of the Hunt vote amongst MPs from 2019 by the final rounds and most of the other half of the Boris vote.
Truss would get squeezed, there are simply not enough Libertarian Tory MPs to get her into the final 2 in my view
They are all 'of the right'. There's not a centrist amongst them.
None of the Labour contenders in 2019 were centrists either on that basis. Davey perhaps the closest of the main party leaders.
But in relative terms Starmer was the centrist as Sunak is on the Tory side
Ms Sturgeon is a centrist too - much more so than LDs.
No, Sturgeon is a social democrat who could easily be a Labour MP in Starmer's Shadow Cabinet if she was English
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
Liz Truss is so committed to freedom and liberty that she believes peaceful protesters should be imprisoned, only those with government-approved ID should be able to vote and that the Home Secretary should have the right to secretly take away someone's British citizenship.
What's your view on the Insulate Britain protestors who have been imprisoned?
Are they peaceful?
Quite a lurid profile overall by the Times:
She wears bold block dresses: telephone box red, electric blue, vicious mustard. They are not so much colours as statements of intent: look at me, the next Mrs T. The Iron Lady 2.0
Far be it from me to give advice to Tories - but as they are always telling Labour what they should do, I may as well.
I'd be delighted if Truss succeeds Johnson. I reckon it would almost guarantee a non-Tory government next time round, because I think she'd be found out as flimsy and shallow.
Somebody else mentioned Penny Mordaunt as a more formidable opponent, and I agree - I'd be much more worried about her than Truss. Interesting back story, bright, quite formidable but not dull and predictable. She's be a risky, but potentially winning, choice for the Tories. The men in contention are, by comparison, dull - maybe duller than Starmer, even.
Mark Harper is, for me, the ideal Tory leader.
I don't think he'll make it this time around. But I hope he tries - puts a marker down to succeed whoever wins...
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
I have just collapsed my head into my hands
You think that waste of space Raab, who is likely to lose his seat, will be in the top two is a fantasy because you really do not like Trust
I know the party. Raab would be the main candidate of the right and would pick up about half the Boris vote from MPs from 2019 and a few Redwallers. Sunak would have picked up most of the Hunt vote amongst MPs from 2019 by the final rounds and most of the other half of the Boris vote.
Truss would get squeezed, there are simply not enough Libertarian Tory MPs to get her into the final 2 in my view
They are all 'of the right'. There's not a centrist amongst them.
None of the Labour contenders in 2019 were centrists either on that basis. Davey perhaps the closest of the main party leaders.
But in relative terms Starmer was the centrist as Sunak is on the Tory side
Ms Sturgeon is a centrist too - much more so than LDs.
No, Sturgeon is a social democrat who could easily be a Labour MP in Starmer's Shadow Cabinet if she was English
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
I would have thought you were more likely to be RefUK than any of the main parties anyway
Nope. They have too much baggage. I am not looking for parties to be perfect but there are too many fundamental flaws with all of them at the moment - even those I have some agreement with on some areas.
Boris has been transformed from electoral asset to electoral liability. Not because he has done any specific bad thing, but because people who had been holding onto lies as truth suddenly got a glimpse behind the curtain and realised they'd been had.
"Stand Up if you Hate Boris" is now a refrain sung with gusto multiple times every session at the darts. Astonishing how quickly he has collapsed into a figure to be scorned.
It surprises me how long it has taken. Always thought he was a complete twat that was a disaster for the Tories and the country
From Summer 2019 to Summer 2021 there was so much going on that it was possible for BoJo to bluff convincingly. Since then, the pace has been a bit less frenetic and it's easier to see the holes.
(A bit like Jazz; anyone sounds impressive in the fast bits, it's the slow patches that separate the greats from the also-rans.)
It has implications for the electoral cycle. I wonder if we're not so much in the middle of a 5 year cycle as just staring a 3 year cycle that was preceded by two years of political dead time.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
I have just collapsed my head into my hands
You think that waste of space Raab, who is likely to lose his seat, will be in the top two is a fantasy because you really do not like Trust
I know the party. Raab would be the main candidate of the right and would pick up about half the Boris vote from MPs from 2019 and a few Redwallers. Sunak would have picked up most of the Hunt vote amongst MPs from 2019 by the final rounds and most of the other half of the Boris vote.
Truss would get squeezed, there are simply not enough Libertarian Tory MPs to get her into the final 2 in my view
They are all 'of the right'. There's not a centrist amongst them.
None of the Labour contenders in 2019 were centrists either on that basis. Davey perhaps the closest of the main party leaders.
But in relative terms Starmer was the centrist as Sunak is on the Tory side
Ms Sturgeon is a centrist too - much more so than LDs.
No, Sturgeon is a social democrat who could easily be a Labour MP in Starmer's Shadow Cabinet if she was English
Truss is pretending to be Thatcherite. Sunak was an original Brexiter, a fiscal dry, and Barrington-friendly. Javid was, at least, a Randian Thatcherite.
It’s impossible to put a fag paper between them, save that Javid has been a more doveish of late on Covid.
Boris has been transformed from electoral asset to electoral liability. Not because he has done any specific bad thing, but because people who had been holding onto lies as truth suddenly got a glimpse behind the curtain and realised they'd been had.
"Stand Up if you Hate Boris" is now a refrain sung with gusto multiple times every session at the darts. Astonishing how quickly he has collapsed into a figure to be scorned.
It surprises me how long it has taken. Always thought he was a complete twat that was a disaster for the Tories and the country
From Summer 2019 to Summer 2021 there was so much going on that it was possible for BoJo to bluff convincingly. Since then, the pace has been a bit less frenetic and it's easier to see the holes.
(A bit like Jazz; anyone sounds impressive in the fast bits, it's the slow patches that separate the greats from the also-rans.)
It has implications for the electoral cycle. I wonder if we're not so much in the middle of a 5 year cycle as just staring a 3 year cycle that was preceded by two years of political dead time.
Actually i think its the opposite....there has been laser focus on COVID, the whole nation want to know day to day things about it, when will a decision be made, what are the rules, etc. His lack of ability to take on board detail and think ahead has been exposed while everybody has been watching. In normal times most people don't take much notice of what politicians are arguing about.
I think the first wave, Boris got a pass, as clearly nobody really knew much and was scrambling. Second wave he took a hit but was rescued by vaccine roll out. Now people are sick and tired, and parties the final straw.
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
I would have thought you were more likely to be RefUK than any of the main parties anyway
Nope. They have too much baggage. I am not looking for parties to be perfect but there are too many fundamental flaws with all of them at the moment - even those I have some agreement with on some areas.
You are basically like Peter Hitchens, the parties have to be pure or you won't back them.
That might work under PR where 10 or more parties could win seats, it will not work under FPTP unfortunately where the big 3 win almost all the seats outside Scotland where the SNP dominate
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
Raab is toxic.
If you are right about Truss, then it will be Sunak v Javid.
I'm heading out shortly but there's this constant dialectic between who might be the best leader of the Conservative party and who might be most likely to get elected leader of the Conservative party. The former would meet the needs of the nation, the latter is at the behest of MPs and the membership many of whom are bone-headed loons on the far right. They're as dangerous to the tories as the Corbynistas are to Labour.
Until or unless they resolve that tension they will continue to choose duds.
Given the Tories have just won 4 general elections in a row we don't need lectures from Labour supporters about picking duds as leaders!
Yet their duds are the only reason why you have got away with your duds (until recently)
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
A valid point. However parties should remain true to core values. It is perfectly legitimate for them to say to the electorate that they accept the referendum, but that they think we should form a more positive relationship with all our EU/EEA trading partners and that at some point in the distant future if it looked in UK's interest to rejoin or to join EEA they would offer a referendum with three preferences: EU/EEA/None. That might be repellent to you, but not me.
If the government wanted to make the argument for EEA membership and a customs deal it could do so pretty simply 1. Its not the EU 2. Its not EU courts - EFTA is completely separate 3. Its not free movement - we will deport spongers who come here and don't work 4. EEA standards are the same as our standards - we've set the bar 5. We can massively cut red tape and make British exports competitive again 6. A big boost to jobs
The current government won't do it but I expect Sunak to do so fairly quickly. Perhaps even posing with a big pair of scissors (signed of course) ceremonially cutting through "EU Red Tape" to remove the reams and fucking reams of bullshit that we're all about to drown in next month.
I hope you are right. I would have been happy to stay in the EU, but also realise there is a considerable body of opinion that do not like that so EEA is a sensible compromise position. Can't see the Tories implementing though sadly. Too many fecking ideological swivel-eyes in both the parliamentary party and the activist base
I hear you. But ultimately the mouth-foamers are small state low regulation people. And we have gone from very low regulation trade to very high regulation trade with our biggest market.
Surely at some point once the harrumphing about sovrinty calms down they will look at the new normal and recognise that it is the literal antithesis of all they have worked for - cutting costs, red tape and bureaucracy. How tempting must it then be to get the big scissors and cut it all away?
Remember that their vision of a Singapore-on-Thames Britain doesn't work with massive cost and complexities of red tape trying business up in knots. They will have to give that up sooner or later.
You seem to miss the point that the cost of low regulation trade with 7% of the world's population was having no control over he regulation and in many cases suffering from high and unnecessary regulation with the other 93%. We now have the option - should we choose it - to reduce regulation with the 93%. Something we had no ability to do inside the EU.
Truss is pretending to be Thatcherite. Sunak was an original Brexiter, a fiscal dry, and Barrington-friendly. Javid was, at least, a Randian Thatcherite.
It’s impossible to put a fag paper between them, save that Javid has been a more doveish of late on Covid.
Bagehot has been talking up Truss a bit in the Economist, an interesting article, but such attention from the Bagehot column is often the black spot for potential PMs.
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
A valid point. However parties should remain true to core values. It is perfectly legitimate for them to say to the electorate that they accept the referendum, but that they think we should form a more positive relationship with all our EU/EEA trading partners and that at some point in the distant future if it looked in UK's interest to rejoin or to join EEA they would offer a referendum with three preferences: EU/EEA/None. That might be repellent to you, but not me.
If the government wanted to make the argument for EEA membership and a customs deal it could do so pretty simply 1. Its not the EU 2. Its not EU courts - EFTA is completely separate 3. Its not free movement - we will deport spongers who come here and don't work 4. EEA standards are the same as our standards - we've set the bar 5. We can massively cut red tape and make British exports competitive again 6. A big boost to jobs
The current government won't do it but I expect Sunak to do so fairly quickly. Perhaps even posing with a big pair of scissors (signed of course) ceremonially cutting through "EU Red Tape" to remove the reams and fucking reams of bullshit that we're all about to drown in next month.
I hope you are right. I would have been happy to stay in the EU, but also realise there is a considerable body of opinion that do not like that so EEA is a sensible compromise position. Can't see the Tories implementing though sadly. Too many fecking ideological swivel-eyes in both the parliamentary party and the activist base
I hear you. But ultimately the mouth-foamers are small state low regulation people. And we have gone from very low regulation trade to very high regulation trade with our biggest market.
Surely at some point once the harrumphing about sovrinty calms down they will look at the new normal and recognise that it is the literal antithesis of all they have worked for - cutting costs, red tape and bureaucracy. How tempting must it then be to get the big scissors and cut it all away?
Remember that their vision of a Singapore-on-Thames Britain doesn't work with massive cost and complexities of red tape trying business up in knots. They will have to give that up sooner or later.
You seem to miss the point that the cost of low regulation trade with 7% of the world's population was having no control over he regulation and in many cases suffering from high and unnecessary regulation with the other 93%. We now have the option - should we choose it - to reduce regulation with the 93%. Something we had no ability to do inside the EU.
You've had 5 years to explain how you were going to do that. You failed to do so, why should we listen any further?
Far be it from me to give advice to Tories - but as they are always telling Labour what they should do, I may as well.
I'd be delighted if Truss succeeds Johnson. I reckon it would almost guarantee a non-Tory government next time round, because I think she'd be found out as flimsy and shallow.
Somebody else mentioned Penny Mordaunt as a more formidable opponent, and I agree - I'd be much more worried about her than Truss. Interesting back story, bright, quite formidable but not dull and predictable. She's be a risky, but potentially winning, choice for the Tories. The men in contention are, by comparison, dull - maybe duller than Starmer, even.
Mark Harper is, for me, the ideal Tory leader.
I don't think he'll make it this time around. But I hope he tries - puts a marker down to succeed whoever wins...
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
A valid point. However parties should remain true to core values. It is perfectly legitimate for them to say to the electorate that they accept the referendum, but that they think we should form a more positive relationship with all our EU/EEA trading partners and that at some point in the distant future if it looked in UK's interest to rejoin or to join EEA they would offer a referendum with three preferences: EU/EEA/None. That might be repellent to you, but not me.
If the government wanted to make the argument for EEA membership and a customs deal it could do so pretty simply 1. Its not the EU 2. Its not EU courts - EFTA is completely separate 3. Its not free movement - we will deport spongers who come here and don't work 4. EEA standards are the same as our standards - we've set the bar 5. We can massively cut red tape and make British exports competitive again 6. A big boost to jobs
The current government won't do it but I expect Sunak to do so fairly quickly. Perhaps even posing with a big pair of scissors (signed of course) ceremonially cutting through "EU Red Tape" to remove the reams and fucking reams of bullshit that we're all about to drown in next month.
I hope you are right. I would have been happy to stay in the EU, but also realise there is a considerable body of opinion that do not like that so EEA is a sensible compromise position. Can't see the Tories implementing though sadly. Too many fecking ideological swivel-eyes in both the parliamentary party and the activist base
I hear you. But ultimately the mouth-foamers are small state low regulation people. And we have gone from very low regulation trade to very high regulation trade with our biggest market.
Surely at some point once the harrumphing about sovrinty calms down they will look at the new normal and recognise that it is the literal antithesis of all they have worked for - cutting costs, red tape and bureaucracy. How tempting must it then be to get the big scissors and cut it all away?
Remember that their vision of a Singapore-on-Thames Britain doesn't work with massive cost and complexities of red tape trying business up in knots. They will have to give that up sooner or later.
You seem to miss the point that the cost of low regulation trade with 7% of the world's population was having no control over he regulation and in many cases suffering from high and unnecessary regulation with the other 93%. We now have the option - should we choose it - to reduce regulation with the 93%. Something we had no ability to do inside the EU.
Seems you have learned nothing from Brexit, aka “economics, trade, and geopolitics for slow learners”.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
Raab is toxic.
If you are right about Truss, then it will be Sunak v Javid.
I'm heading out shortly but there's this constant dialectic between who might be the best leader of the Conservative party and who might be most likely to get elected leader of the Conservative party. The former would meet the needs of the nation, the latter is at the behest of MPs and the membership many of whom are bone-headed loons on the far right. They're as dangerous to the tories as the Corbynistas are to Labour.
Until or unless they resolve that tension they will continue to choose duds.
Given the Tories have just won 4 general elections in a row we don't need lectures from Labour supporters about picking duds as leaders!
Far be it from me to give advice to Tories - but as they are always telling Labour what they should do, I may as well.
I'd be delighted if Truss succeeds Johnson. I reckon it would almost guarantee a non-Tory government next time round, because I think she'd be found out as flimsy and shallow.
Somebody else mentioned Penny Mordaunt as a more formidable opponent, and I agree - I'd be much more worried about her than Truss. Interesting back story, bright, quite formidable but not dull and predictable. She's be a risky, but potentially winning, choice for the Tories. The men in contention are, by comparison, dull - maybe duller than Starmer, even.
Mark Harper is, for me, the ideal Tory leader.
I don't think he'll make it this time around. But I hope he tries - puts a marker down to succeed whoever wins...
Another Oxford PPE....
At least Raab did law at Oxford not PPE
I met him, briefly. Trinity shared a rugby team with LMH at the time, my best friend was also there, and I was introduced at the bar. I remember nothing of the encounter beyond that and would have forgotten it completely if I’d not been reminded when he became a minister.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
Raab? I wonder if he has not shot himself in the foot by being so willing to defend the government that he goes on television to tell blatant lies with a straight face. If the trouble with Boris is no-one believes him, why elect Dominic Raab? If the trouble with Boris is people think he is lazy, why elect the Foreign Secretary who holidayed while Kabul burned?
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
A valid point. However parties should remain true to core values. It is perfectly legitimate for them to say to the electorate that they accept the referendum, but that they think we should form a more positive relationship with all our EU/EEA trading partners and that at some point in the distant future if it looked in UK's interest to rejoin or to join EEA they would offer a referendum with three preferences: EU/EEA/None. That might be repellent to you, but not me.
If the government wanted to make the argument for EEA membership and a customs deal it could do so pretty simply 1. Its not the EU 2. Its not EU courts - EFTA is completely separate 3. Its not free movement - we will deport spongers who come here and don't work 4. EEA standards are the same as our standards - we've set the bar 5. We can massively cut red tape and make British exports competitive again 6. A big boost to jobs
The current government won't do it but I expect Sunak to do so fairly quickly. Perhaps even posing with a big pair of scissors (signed of course) ceremonially cutting through "EU Red Tape" to remove the reams and fucking reams of bullshit that we're all about to drown in next month.
I hope you are right. I would have been happy to stay in the EU, but also realise there is a considerable body of opinion that do not like that so EEA is a sensible compromise position. Can't see the Tories implementing though sadly. Too many fecking ideological swivel-eyes in both the parliamentary party and the activist base
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
A valid point. However parties should remain true to core values. It is perfectly legitimate for them to say to the electorate that they accept the referendum, but that they think we should form a more positive relationship with all our EU/EEA trading partners and that at some point in the distant future if it looked in UK's interest to rejoin or to join EEA they would offer a referendum with three preferences: EU/EEA/None. That might be repellent to you, but not me.
If the government wanted to make the argument for EEA membership and a customs deal it could do so pretty simply 1. Its not the EU 2. Its not EU courts - EFTA is completely separate 3. Its not free movement - we will deport spongers who come here and don't work 4. EEA standards are the same as our standards - we've set the bar 5. We can massively cut red tape and make British exports competitive again 6. A big boost to jobs
The current government won't do it but I expect Sunak to do so fairly quickly. Perhaps even posing with a big pair of scissors (signed of course) ceremonially cutting through "EU Red Tape" to remove the reams and fucking reams of bullshit that we're all about to drown in next month.
I hope you are right. I would have been happy to stay in the EU, but also realise there is a considerable body of opinion that do not like that so EEA is a sensible compromise position. Can't see the Tories implementing though sadly. Too many fecking ideological swivel-eyes in both the parliamentary party and the activist base
I hear you. But ultimately the mouth-foamers are small state low regulation people. And we have gone from very low regulation trade to very high regulation trade with our biggest market.
Surely at some point once the harrumphing about sovrinty calms down they will look at the new normal and recognise that it is the literal antithesis of all they have worked for - cutting costs, red tape and bureaucracy. How tempting must it then be to get the big scissors and cut it all away?
Remember that their vision of a Singapore-on-Thames Britain doesn't work with massive cost and complexities of red tape trying business up in knots. They will have to give that up sooner or later.
You seem to miss the point that the cost of low regulation trade with 7% of the world's population was having no control over he regulation and in many cases suffering from high and unnecessary regulation with the other 93%. We now have the option - should we choose it - to reduce regulation with the 93%. Something we had no ability to do inside the EU.
You've had 5 years to explain how you were going to do that. You failed to do so, why should we listen any further?
I thought Tyndall had become more reasonable of late but it seems I was fooling myself.
“7% of the world’s population” - relevance? “no control over regulation” - eh? “high and unnecessary regulation with the other 93%” - evidence?
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
A valid point. However parties should remain true to core values. It is perfectly legitimate for them to say to the electorate that they accept the referendum, but that they think we should form a more positive relationship with all our EU/EEA trading partners and that at some point in the distant future if it looked in UK's interest to rejoin or to join EEA they would offer a referendum with three preferences: EU/EEA/None. That might be repellent to you, but not me.
If the government wanted to make the argument for EEA membership and a customs deal it could do so pretty simply 1. Its not the EU 2. Its not EU courts - EFTA is completely separate 3. Its not free movement - we will deport spongers who come here and don't work 4. EEA standards are the same as our standards - we've set the bar 5. We can massively cut red tape and make British exports competitive again 6. A big boost to jobs
The current government won't do it but I expect Sunak to do so fairly quickly. Perhaps even posing with a big pair of scissors (signed of course) ceremonially cutting through "EU Red Tape" to remove the reams and fucking reams of bullshit that we're all about to drown in next month.
I hope you are right. I would have been happy to stay in the EU, but also realise there is a considerable body of opinion that do not like that so EEA is a sensible compromise position. Can't see the Tories implementing though sadly. Too many fecking ideological swivel-eyes in both the parliamentary party and the activist base
I hear you. But ultimately the mouth-foamers are small state low regulation people. And we have gone from very low regulation trade to very high regulation trade with our biggest market.
Surely at some point once the harrumphing about sovrinty calms down they will look at the new normal and recognise that it is the literal antithesis of all they have worked for - cutting costs, red tape and bureaucracy. How tempting must it then be to get the big scissors and cut it all away?
Remember that their vision of a Singapore-on-Thames Britain doesn't work with massive cost and complexities of red tape trying business up in knots. They will have to give that up sooner or later.
You seem to miss the point that the cost of low regulation trade with 7% of the world's population was having no control over he regulation and in many cases suffering from high and unnecessary regulation with the other 93%. We now have the option - should we choose it - to reduce regulation with the 93%. Something we had no ability to do inside the EU.
How does that work? While it may be 93% of the world's population it is nothing like 93% of our existing exports nor plausible potential export markets..
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
I have just collapsed my head into my hands
You think that waste of space Raab, who is likely to lose his seat, will be in the top two is a fantasy because you really do not like Trust
I know the party. Raab would be the main candidate of the right and would pick up about half the Boris vote from MPs from 2019 and a few Redwallers. Sunak would have picked up most of the Hunt vote amongst MPs from 2019 by the final rounds and most of the other half of the Boris vote.
Truss would get squeezed, there are simply not enough Libertarian Tory MPs to get her into the final 2 in my view
They are all 'of the right'. There's not a centrist amongst them.
None of the Labour contenders in 2019 were centrists either on that basis. Davey perhaps the closest of the main party leaders.
But in relative terms Starmer was the centrist as Sunak is on the Tory side
I don't consider Sunak to be a moderate. Quite the right-wing ideologue in my mind.
He is just being forced to look like a magic money tree chancellor because of circumstances.
The logical thing for disaffected Tories to do, assuming they live in the right seats, is indeed to go LD.
But LDs will need to do a better job of positioning themselves as a moderating influence on Labour.
They also need to develop a more realistic policy on Brexit.
I think most people (including me) think that is a debate of little interest if you are a floating voter. At the moment I could go Tory if they have a sensible leader, LD or Labour if they convince me they have seen off Corbynites. If there was a GE tomorrow I would vote LD
I think you are wrong there. There are many people like me who cannot vote for Johnson but who would never vote for such a pro-EU party. They already have the pro-EU vote. What they need to do is retain it whilst softening their position so they don't frighten off potential new voters. Right now my vote is still firmly in the spoiled ballot territory.
A valid point. However parties should remain true to core values. It is perfectly legitimate for them to say to the electorate that they accept the referendum, but that they think we should form a more positive relationship with all our EU/EEA trading partners and that at some point in the distant future if it looked in UK's interest to rejoin or to join EEA they would offer a referendum with three preferences: EU/EEA/None. That might be repellent to you, but not me.
If the government wanted to make the argument for EEA membership and a customs deal it could do so pretty simply 1. Its not the EU 2. Its not EU courts - EFTA is completely separate 3. Its not free movement - we will deport spongers who come here and don't work 4. EEA standards are the same as our standards - we've set the bar 5. We can massively cut red tape and make British exports competitive again 6. A big boost to jobs
The current government won't do it but I expect Sunak to do so fairly quickly. Perhaps even posing with a big pair of scissors (signed of course) ceremonially cutting through "EU Red Tape" to remove the reams and fucking reams of bullshit that we're all about to drown in next month.
I hope you are right. I would have been happy to stay in the EU, but also realise there is a considerable body of opinion that do not like that so EEA is a sensible compromise position. Can't see the Tories implementing though sadly. Too many fecking ideological swivel-eyes in both the parliamentary party and the activist base
I hear you. But ultimately the mouth-foamers are small state low regulation people. And we have gone from very low regulation trade to very high regulation trade with our biggest market.
Surely at some point once the harrumphing about sovrinty calms down they will look at the new normal and recognise that it is the literal antithesis of all they have worked for - cutting costs, red tape and bureaucracy. How tempting must it then be to get the big scissors and cut it all away?
Remember that their vision of a Singapore-on-Thames Britain doesn't work with massive cost and complexities of red tape trying business up in knots. They will have to give that up sooner or later.
You seem to miss the point that the cost of low regulation trade with 7% of the world's population was having no control over he regulation and in many cases suffering from high and unnecessary regulation with the other 93%. We now have the option - should we choose it - to reduce regulation with the 93%. Something we had no ability to do inside the EU.
The 93% of the world isn't 93% of our trade. And the "high and unnecessary regulation" hasn't suddenly changed, never mind improved, since we left the EU. Indeed Truss has become a hero to the Tory party Brexiteers by working very hard to sign "new" trade deals that replicate the old ones we just ditched.
Its theory - that we can now do what we like - vs reality - no we can't.
So we know there's no chance of anything happening now with cabinet until at least Wednesday and a vote potentially on Thursday or Friday if cabinet agrees anything. That takes us to next week's incidental/non-incidental hospitalisations report. If it's anything like this week then I can't see how lockdown goes ahead at all. We'll just cough our way through January and get on with life.
Well done to @kinabalu who called it and has been very relaxed about no lockdowns. I really thought the lockdown ultras would get their one final wish to extinguish socialising and fun. It seems not.
Thanks. It was just I thought the politics (here) plus the emerging virus data steered strongly that way. Let's hope it all gets firmed up soon and confirmed as a short lockdown lite at worst.
Also if I can make a point about what I keep calling the 'irrational fears' of mad scientists continually locking us down and freezing our liberties on the basis of frigged Armageddon projections of what the virus is about to do.
I don't walk this back at all. Such fears are irrational but if one were to delurify as follows -
Having grown accustomed to the government issuing 'NPIs' and guidance for us to adjust our behaviour away from what's normal in order to limit demands on the NHS, we should now - or after omicron anyway - unaccustom ourselves to it. We don't want such measures to become a routine part of life, ie as each Dec approaches, the question isn't if some Winter Measures are required to protect the NHS (from Covid ++) but rather what will the Measures be this year, mild or severe, long or short?
This risk is a real one imo. Nothing drivel pipe about that at all. So post pandemic there's some hard questions to be addressed about a number of things, esp NHS capacity and compulsory vaccination against infectious diseases.
But I imagine these questions will not be addressed. We don't really do that sort of thing, do we.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
I have just collapsed my head into my hands
You think that waste of space Raab, who is likely to lose his seat, will be in the top two is a fantasy because you really do not like Trust
I know the party. Raab would be the main candidate of the right and would pick up about half the Boris vote from MPs from 2019 and a few Redwallers. Sunak would have picked up most of the Hunt vote amongst MPs from 2019 by the final rounds and most of the other half of the Boris vote.
Truss would get squeezed, there are simply not enough Libertarian Tory MPs to get her into the final 2 in my view
They are all 'of the right'. There's not a centrist amongst them.
None of the Labour contenders in 2019 were centrists either on that basis. Davey perhaps the closest of the main party leaders.
But in relative terms Starmer was the centrist as Sunak is on the Tory side
I don't consider Sunak to be a moderate. Quite the right-wing ideologue in my mind.
He is just being forced to look like a magic money tree chancellor because of circumstances.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
I have just collapsed my head into my hands
You think that waste of space Raab, who is likely to lose his seat, will be in the top two is a fantasy because you really do not like Trust
I know the party. Raab would be the main candidate of the right and would pick up about half the Boris vote from MPs from 2019 and a few Redwallers. Sunak would have picked up most of the Hunt vote amongst MPs from 2019 by the final rounds and most of the other half of the Boris vote.
Truss would get squeezed, there are simply not enough Libertarian Tory MPs to get her into the final 2 in my view
They are all 'of the right'. There's not a centrist amongst them.
None of the Labour contenders in 2019 were centrists either on that basis. Davey perhaps the closest of the main party leaders.
But in relative terms Starmer was the centrist as Sunak is on the Tory side
Ms Sturgeon is a centrist too - much more so than LDs.
No, Sturgeon is a social democrat who could easily be a Labour MP in Starmer's Shadow Cabinet if she was English
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
I have just collapsed my head into my hands
You think that waste of space Raab, who is likely to lose his seat, will be in the top two is a fantasy because you really do not like Trust
I know the party. Raab would be the main candidate of the right and would pick up about half the Boris vote from MPs from 2019 and a few Redwallers. Sunak would have picked up most of the Hunt vote amongst MPs from 2019 by the final rounds and most of the other half of the Boris vote.
Truss would get squeezed, there are simply not enough Libertarian Tory MPs to get her into the final 2 in my view
They are all 'of the right'. There's not a centrist amongst them.
None of the Labour contenders in 2019 were centrists either on that basis. Davey perhaps the closest of the main party leaders.
But in relative terms Starmer was the centrist as Sunak is on the Tory side
I don't consider Sunak to be a moderate. Quite the right-wing ideologue in my mind.
He is just being forced to look like a magic money tree chancellor because of circumstances.
I don't consider Starmer to be a moderate either, he is still a high tax, high spend social democrat anti Brexiteer but in relative Labour Party terms he is, same as Sunak in Tory terms
The top 10 areas in the whole country, out of almost 9,000, are all in a narrow area from Brixton through Clapham to Tooting.
In west Brixton (Acre Lane) last week, roughly one in ten people got Covid. https://t.co/A8trn9Wy53
UB40 were ahead of the game:
"I am the one in ten-a number on a list I am the one in ten-even though I don't exist Nobody knows me but I'm always there Statistical reminder of a world that doesn't care.
I am the one in ten-a number on a list I am the one in ten-even though I don't exist Nobody knows me..."
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
Raab? I wonder if he has not shot himself in the foot by being so willing to defend the government that he goes on television to tell blatant lies with a straight face. If the trouble with Boris is no-one believes him, why elect Dominic Raab? If the trouble with Boris is people think he is lazy, why elect the Foreign Secretary who holidayed while Kabul burned?
The right will want a candidate, likely either Raab or Patel with Steve Baker getting a few too. Truss is not of the right, she is a libertarian ex Remainer
Kettle: Britain now has a government unable to govern…[the] result of the fact that Johnson is now the hostage of his backbenchers and their cabinet allies, who are in turn emboldened by the voters’ damning verdict in Shropshire.
All failing governments eventually reach a similar point, after which it turns out to be downhill all the way. The question for British politics today is whether Johnson’s government has now reached that point. The evidence suggests it has done so, in its own distinctive way, and that consequently British voters are now open to something new.
It is hard to recover from the reputation-shredding stories – with more to come – that produced North Shropshire. A prime minister being mocked by football and darts fans is not a good sign. Bad election results next year will undoubtedly trigger the leadership speculation that is never far below the surface in the party.
Perhaps Bingham’s law applies today too, just as it did after 2007. The country feels as though it it is in the process of deciding that it will need a new government when the time comes. If that is right, then it may not matter too much who leads the Tory party next time. The crucial question will be whether the country has enough confidence in the Labour alternative.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
I have just collapsed my head into my hands
You think that waste of space Raab, who is likely to lose his seat, will be in the top two is a fantasy because you really do not like Trust
I know the party. Raab would be the main candidate of the right and would pick up about half the Boris vote from MPs from 2019 and a few Redwallers. Sunak would have picked up most of the Hunt vote amongst MPs from 2019 by the final rounds and most of the other half of the Boris vote.
Truss would get squeezed, there are simply not enough Libertarian Tory MPs to get her into the final 2 in my view
They are all 'of the right'. There's not a centrist amongst them.
None of the Labour contenders in 2019 were centrists either on that basis. Davey perhaps the closest of the main party leaders.
But in relative terms Starmer was the centrist as Sunak is on the Tory side
I don't consider Sunak to be a moderate. Quite the right-wing ideologue in my mind.
He is just being forced to look like a magic money tree chancellor because of circumstances.
Far be it from me to give advice to Tories - but as they are always telling Labour what they should do, I may as well.
I'd be delighted if Truss succeeds Johnson. I reckon it would almost guarantee a non-Tory government next time round, because I think she'd be found out as flimsy and shallow.
Somebody else mentioned Penny Mordaunt as a more formidable opponent, and I agree - I'd be much more worried about her than Truss. Interesting back story, bright, quite formidable but not dull and predictable. She's be a risky, but potentially winning, choice for the Tories. The men in contention are, by comparison, dull - maybe duller than Starmer, even.
Mark Harper is, for me, the ideal Tory leader.
I don't think he'll make it this time around. But I hope he tries - puts a marker down to succeed whoever wins...
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
I have just collapsed my head into my hands
You think that waste of space Raab, who is likely to lose his seat, will be in the top two is a fantasy because you really do not like Trust
I know the party. Raab would be the main candidate of the right and would pick up about half the Boris vote from MPs from 2019 and a few Redwallers. Sunak would have picked up most of the Hunt vote amongst MPs from 2019 by the final rounds and most of the other half of the Boris vote.
Truss would get squeezed, there are simply not enough Libertarian Tory MPs to get her into the final 2 in my view
They are all 'of the right'. There's not a centrist amongst them.
None of the Labour contenders in 2019 were centrists either on that basis. Davey perhaps the closest of the main party leaders.
But in relative terms Starmer was the centrist as Sunak is on the Tory side
I don't consider Sunak to be a moderate. Quite the right-wing ideologue in my mind.
He is just being forced to look like a magic money tree chancellor because of circumstances.
I don't consider Starmer to be a moderate either, he is still a high tax, high spend social democrat anti Brexiteer but in relative Labour Party terms he is, same as Sunak in Tory terms
Yes but then you think that half of your own party colleagues are dangerous pinkos who should be told to **** off and join the LibDems….
When does Drakeford reverse ferret on restrictions in Wales?
He won't, as was pointed out last night. He'll just call Westminster irresponsible and hope no one notices that England is getting on fine in January without those idiotic restrictions.
How are Scotland and Wales going to compensate businesses affected by the restrictions they’re introducing? Are Drakeford and Sturgeon going to have to raise their own tax base to pay for it?
A valid point. However parties should remain true to core values. It is perfectly legitimate for them to say to the electorate that they accept the referendum, but that they think we should form a more positive relationship with all our EU/EEA trading partners and that at some point in the distant future if it looked in UK's interest to rejoin or to join EEA they would offer a referendum with three preferences: EU/EEA/None. That might be repellent to you, but not me.
Too many people, myself included, would see the inclusion of the EU option as some sort of trap. Put simply, after so many years by Europhiles, first denying the referendum and then attempting to ignore or subvert the result, there is no trust left at all.
It's not much of a trap if they tell you about it up front! The more trap-like approach would be to not mention the "maybe rejoin if..." part.
Her ideology is late-era Thatcherism: low tax, work not welfare, slash red tape, shrink the public sector, reduce workers’ rights
This isn't what the Red Wall wants
I doubt in the end she would get to the final 2 anyway, libertarians rarely do in Tory leadership contests, even Portillo only managed 3rd in 2001 when he was favourite.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
Raab? I wonder if he has not shot himself in the foot by being so willing to defend the government that he goes on television to tell blatant lies with a straight face. If the trouble with Boris is no-one believes him, why elect Dominic Raab? If the trouble with Boris is people think he is lazy, why elect the Foreign Secretary who holidayed while Kabul burned?
Why elect a Chancellor who was kicking back at his luxury holiday home in California when business was crying out for a support package?
The Premier League is becoming a farce. Should have made teams forfeit from the start. A 3-0 loss would have focused minds on getting players vaccinated. And proper infection control.
No, Sturgeon is a social democrat who could easily be a Labour MP in Starmer's Shadow Cabinet if she was English
According to my calculations (which are SOMETIMES correct!), the "Progressive Alliance" easily, er, "won" GE 2019!
"What is you on about, Sunil?" I hear you cry!
Well, the Progressive Parties won 52.20% of the popular vote, the Right-wing Reactionaries won only 46.83%, and others and independents won 0.97%.
"Show your workings".
OK:
Labour 32.08 LDs 11.55 SNP 3.88 Greens (all UK sections) 2.70 SF 0.57 PC 0.48 APNI 0.42 SDLP 0.37 Yorks 0.09 (yes, they are down as centre-left) TIGs 0.03 PBP 0.02 Northeast 0.01(yes, they are down as centre-left) Mebyon Kernow 0.01
What a total cluster if either Raab or Patel gets put to the members and wins!
That is the risk if Boris goes, MPs try to get Sunak, the members pick Raab or Steve Baker or even Patel in the runoff!
Dear William Hague
You invented a dud system.
Yours, the British people.
Dear Tory members in 2005
Don't think you can wriggle off responsibility. You kept it when Howard tried to persuade you to drop it, knowing it was shit. On the two of the three occasions you've voted, you've picked total numpties.
Comments
https://twitter.com/JohnsHopkinsSPH/status/1473337475045199873?s=20
Plus there are plenty of internal problems the EuCo need to resolve, from trying to beat Eastern European countries into submission, to dealing with whatever ructions Macron is about to cause, and addressing Green Issues now that they backed away from some of their EU-wide climate things and made them optional by country.
If the EU is to survive as a net positive, it needs to be far more Eu a la carte.
I'm limiting myself to an extra mature cheddar and St Augur this year. May add a ripe brie if I can face another foray to the shop.
I expect the contest will be the usual centrist v rightwinger to go to the membership.
If I was a betting man if Boris went I would say Sunak and Raab would be the top 2 amongst MPs to go to the membership, with Truss 3rd
🌳
Divided 31% (+7)
United 6% (-4)
Good policies 11% (-4)
Good leadership 10% (-6)
Keep promises 6% (-1)
2,096 UK adults, 17-19 Dec
(Changes from 19-21 Nov) https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1473991172397883393/photo/1
It has been an almost unmitigated disaster. They all know it and so do most of us.
But I think Truss is an even lighterweight and Rishi is far too slick, so 🤷♂️
https://www.castellocheese.com/en-gb/cheese-types/blue-mould-cheese/roquefort/
The one thing in Scotland is that labour are irrelevant
If you are right about Truss, then it will be Sunak v Javid.
"Stand Up if you Hate Boris" is now a refrain sung with gusto multiple times every session at the darts. Astonishing how quickly he has collapsed into a figure to be scorned.
Until or unless they resolve that tension they will continue to choose duds.
However, as we don't have one of them right now, let's look at the Saj.
You think that waste of space Raab, who is likely to lose his seat, will be in the top two is a fantasy because you really do not like Truss
@HugoGye
·
10m
Pressure on PM easing for the next few days as top scientists and opposition politicians back the wait-and-see approach with any new decisions deferred until after Xmas. Story
@theipaper
:
1. Its not the EU
2. Its not EU courts - EFTA is completely separate
3. Its not free movement - we will deport spongers who come here and don't work
4. EEA standards are the same as our standards - we've set the bar
5. We can massively cut red tape and make British exports competitive again
6. A big boost to jobs
The current government won't do it but I expect Sunak to do so fairly quickly. Perhaps even posing with a big pair of scissors (signed of course) ceremonially cutting through "EU Red Tape" to remove the reams and fucking reams of bullshit that we're all about to drown in next month.
Truss would get squeezed, there are simply not enough Libertarian Tory MPs to get her into the final 2 in my view
https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-burlington-bunker-britains-secret-underground-city-2017-1?r=US&IR=T#photos-of-queen-elizabeth-ii-princess-margaret-and-wartime-actors-and-celebrities-plastered-the-walls-of-the-wartime-factory-5
Number of positive - 1 in:
England: 45 (-15)
Wales: 55 (nc)
Scotland: 70 (-10)
NI: 50 (nc)
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1473987062688796673?s=20
An estimated 1.4 million people in the UK had COVID-19 in the week ending 16 December, according to the Office for National Statistics.
It is the highest number since comparable figures began in autumn 2020.
Around one in 45 people in private households in England had COVID in the week to 16 December, up from one in 60 the previous week.
One in 45 is equivalent to around 1.2 million people and is the highest number recorded since the ONS started estimating infection levels for England in May 2020.
In Wales, around one in 55 people is estimated to have had COVID in the week to 16 December.
This is unchanged from the previous week and below the recent record high of one in 40.
The estimate in Northern Ireland is one in 50 people, a figure that is also unchanged from the previous week and below the record high of one in 40 in August.
In Scotland it is one in 70, up from one in 80 the previous week and below September's peak of one in 45.
I'd be delighted if Truss succeeds Johnson. I reckon it would almost guarantee a non-Tory government next time round, because I think she'd be found out as flimsy and shallow.
Somebody else mentioned Penny Mordaunt as a more formidable opponent, and I agree - I'd be much more worried about her than Truss. Interesting back story, bright, quite formidable but not dull and predictable. She's be a risky, but potentially winning, choice for the Tories. The men in contention are, by comparison, dull - maybe duller than Starmer, even.
But in relative terms Starmer was the centrist as Sunak is on the Tory side
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10339607/Brits-queue-minute-festive-food-two-days-Christmas.html
Surely at some point once the harrumphing about sovrinty calms down they will look at the new normal and recognise that it is the literal antithesis of all they have worked for - cutting costs, red tape and bureaucracy. How tempting must it then be to get the big scissors and cut it all away?
Remember that their vision of a Singapore-on-Thames Britain doesn't work with massive cost and complexities of red tape trying business up in knots. They will have to give that up sooner or later.
I don't think he'll make it this time around. But I hope he tries - puts a marker down to succeed whoever wins...
Too many people, myself included, would see the inclusion of the EU option as some sort of trap. Put simply, after so many years by Europhiles, first denying the referendum and then attempting to ignore or subvert the result, there is no trust left at all.
Are they peaceful?
Quite a lurid profile overall by the Times:
She wears bold block dresses: telephone box red, electric blue, vicious mustard. They are not so much colours as statements of intent: look at me, the next Mrs T. The Iron Lady 2.0
(and that is the SNP post Ms S's takeover - much more centrist than the LDs let alone the Tories)
The top 10 areas in the whole country, out of almost 9,000, are all in a narrow area from Brixton through Clapham to Tooting.
In west Brixton (Acre Lane) last week, roughly one in ten people got Covid. https://t.co/A8trn9Wy53
(A bit like Jazz; anyone sounds impressive in the fast bits, it's the slow patches that separate the greats from the also-rans.)
It has implications for the electoral cycle. I wonder if we're not so much in the middle of a 5 year cycle as just staring a 3 year cycle that was preceded by two years of political dead time.
For the average UK voter however being for a high tax, big state and for staying in the EU is not centrism
Sunak was an original Brexiter, a fiscal dry, and Barrington-friendly.
Javid was, at least, a Randian Thatcherite.
It’s impossible to put a fag paper between them, save that Javid has been a more doveish of late on Covid.
I think the first wave, Boris got a pass, as clearly nobody really knew much and was scrambling. Second wave he took a hit but was rescued by vaccine roll out. Now people are sick and tired, and parties the final straw.
That might work under PR where 10 or more parties could win seats, it will not work under FPTP unfortunately where the big 3 win almost all the seats outside Scotland where the SNP dominate
*Off to do some wrapping*
“7% of the world’s population” - relevance?
“no control over regulation” - eh?
“high and unnecessary regulation with the other 93%” - evidence?
He is just being forced to look like a magic money tree chancellor because of circumstances.
Its theory - that we can now do what we like - vs reality - no we can't.
Also if I can make a point about what I keep calling the 'irrational fears' of mad scientists continually locking us down and freezing our liberties on the basis of frigged Armageddon projections of what the virus is about to do.
I don't walk this back at all. Such fears are irrational but if one were to delurify as follows -
Having grown accustomed to the government issuing 'NPIs' and guidance for us to adjust our behaviour away from what's normal in order to limit demands on the NHS, we should now - or after omicron anyway - unaccustom ourselves to it. We don't want such measures to become a routine part of life, ie as each Dec approaches, the question isn't if some Winter Measures are required to protect the NHS (from Covid ++) but rather what will the Measures be this year, mild or severe, long or short?
This risk is a real one imo. Nothing drivel pipe about that at all. So post pandemic there's some hard questions to be addressed about a number of things, esp NHS capacity and compulsory vaccination against infectious diseases.
But I imagine these questions will not be addressed. We don't really do that sort of thing, do we.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/22/brazen-treachery-rishi-sunak-sabotaging-boris-johnson-policies
Then from 2009 to 2015 the most centrist party leader voters picked was Nick Clegg.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2014/07/23/britains-changing-political-spectrum
"I am the one in ten-a number on a list
I am the one in ten-even though I don't exist
Nobody knows me but I'm always there
Statistical reminder of a world that doesn't care.
I am the one in ten-a number on a list
I am the one in ten-even though I don't exist
Nobody knows me..."
All failing governments eventually reach a similar point, after which it turns out to be downhill all the way. The question for British politics today is whether Johnson’s government has now reached that point. The evidence suggests it has done so, in its own distinctive way, and that consequently British voters are now open to something new.
It is hard to recover from the reputation-shredding stories – with more to come – that produced North Shropshire. A prime minister being mocked by football and darts fans is not a good sign. Bad election results next year will undoubtedly trigger the leadership speculation that is never far below the surface in the party.
Perhaps Bingham’s law applies today too, just as it did after 2007. The country feels as though it it is in the process of deciding that it will need a new government when the time comes. If that is right, then it may not matter too much who leads the Tory party next time. The crucial question will be whether the country has enough confidence in the Labour alternative.
Oh, not that sort of PPE?
They were about the only thing that annoyed me about cumbersome EU regulation.
Should have made teams forfeit from the start.
A 3-0 loss would have focused minds on getting players vaccinated.
And proper infection control.
"What is you on about, Sunil?" I hear you cry!
Well, the Progressive Parties won 52.20% of the popular vote, the Right-wing Reactionaries won only 46.83%, and others and independents won 0.97%.
"Show your workings".
OK:
Labour 32.08
LDs 11.55
SNP 3.88
Greens (all UK sections) 2.70
SF 0.57
PC 0.48
APNI 0.42
SDLP 0.37
Yorks 0.09 (yes, they are down as centre-left)
TIGs 0.03
PBP 0.02
Northeast 0.01(yes, they are down as centre-left)
Mebyon Kernow 0.01
TOTAL 52.20%
Conservative 43.63
Brexit 2.01
DUP 0.76
UUP 0.29
UKIP 0.07
Aontu 0.03 (Republicans, but socially conservative)
CPA 0.02
EDP 0.01
Libertarian 0.01
TOTAL 46.83%
OTHERS 0.97%
You invented a dud system.
Yours, the British people.
Dear Tory members in 2005
Don't think you can wriggle off responsibility. You kept it when Howard tried to persuade you to drop it, knowing it was shit. On the two of the three occasions you've voted, you've picked total numpties.
Yours, still the British people.