Some of the CON seats that could fall on a 10% swing to the LDs – politicalbetting.com

rpjs said:

Leon said:

Brexit really is our English Civil War, all over again (complete with attendant plagues and religious frenzies)

In that light, we can probably expect - after prolonged agonies - some kind of Restoration of British EU Membership, but much altered, with the Divine Right of the ECJ and the European Commission gone forever from these island shores.

This would be an equable solution

No, that would be like the Restoration requiring the monarch to be a figurehead from the get-go. That was not possible because no-one could figure out how to create an executive that could work with Parliamentary supremacy. It took sixty years for a viable solution to that to emerge.

What will actually happen is much more mundane: a return to the EEA/CU after the next election (which may come sooner than we think if the Tory party does split in the next few months) and then 5-10 years after that a realization that it’s better to be one of the rule makers than a passive rule taker and a full rejoin, including Schengen and the Euro.

lol, no

TimS said:

They’re really going to do it aren’t they? They’re going to remove Boris Johnson because he’s not right-wing or Brexity enough.

It’s almost worthy of Momentum.

The revolution truly does devour its own.

Try should be the term, plenty will not want one of the 100 rebels as pm

CarlottaVance said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

Scott_xP said:

Plague Island...

BREAKING: Germany to class the UK as a virus variant area from Monday, restricting travel from the UK to Germany. It’s been announced tonight by the Robert Koch Institute. More details to come… https://twitter.com/spiegel_eil/status/1472321450111610885

It might make sense to restrict us now, as we did with southern Africa. Once omicron is in and has a bit of steam from doubling you might as well lift it though.
It'll be everywhere in short order, restrictions should lift in a week or two.

Denmark of course is already really bad, as is Holland. France its well seeded. Even if it isn't widespread in Germany, their neighbours have it already.

I can't see a way that it isn't all over Germany. Neighbouring countries, travel etc.

Kamski reckoned Germany was 2 weeks behind the UK, Omicron-wise, maybe less


I reckon "maybe less" is probably right. Everywhere in western Europe is maybe ten days behind the UK at best

It is far too infectious for it not to be lurking already in the data, ready to explode. Look at the record numbers in NY State today, that's Omicron. Ditto Ireland

Given they are running testing at 16% of the UK level and of those tests sequencing 12% of the positive outcomes, how the fiddle do they think they have the remotest idea how much Omicron they already have?

They haven't. Closing the borders to us is simply a near-painless way of being seen to be doing something.

OldBasing said:

The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

With respect they are not imploding over Europe , they are imploding over covid restrictions, increased NI and green taxes

Frost himself has said in his resignation letter Brexit is secure

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

Not sure how long that will hold

Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails

The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....

Might be time to change my avatar

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nadine can't even spell her last name lol

That's not how WhatsApp works.

It means the leaker can't spell Dorries.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldBasing said:

The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

With respect they are not imploding over Europe , they are imploding over covid restrictions, increased NI and green taxes

I'm not sure that's entirely true. They were imploding over lockdowns, the irreconcilable economic interests of their Northern and Southern voters, and Johnson's general uselessness. From this point forward they'll be imploding over all of those things plus Europe.

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Endillion said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nadine can't even spell her last name lol

That's not how WhatsApp works; the mis-spelling will be because whoever leaked the conversation will have her name mis-spelled in their phone.

Nadine means so little that people can't even spell her name right

Unlike the leader of the Labour Party, Kier Starmer.

Named after the Construction Industry giant rather than the founder of the Labour Party.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldBasing said:

The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

With respect they are not imploding over Europe , they are imploding over covid restrictions, increased NI and green taxes

Frost himself has said in his resignation letter Brexit is secure

Not sure that Brexit success was in his gift...

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

Not sure how long that will hold

Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails

The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....

Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

I will e very interested in whether the lib dems will also against this time

Ah yes, that old chestnut.

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

Scott_xP said:

Plague Island...

BREAKING: Germany to class the UK as a virus variant area from Monday, restricting travel from the UK to Germany. It’s been announced tonight by the Robert Koch Institute. More details to come… https://twitter.com/spiegel_eil/status/1472321450111610885

It might make sense to restrict us now, as we did with southern Africa. Once omicron is in and has a bit of steam from doubling you might as well lift it though.
It'll be everywhere in short order, restrictions should lift in a week or two.

Denmark of course is already really bad, as is Holland. France its well seeded. Even if it isn't widespread in Germany, their neighbours have it already.

I can't see a way that it isn't all over Germany. Neighbouring countries, travel etc.

Kamski reckoned Germany was 2 weeks behind the UK, Omicron-wise, maybe less


I reckon "maybe less" is probably right. Everywhere in western Europe is maybe ten days behind the UK at best

It is far too infectious for it not to be lurking already in the data, ready to explode. Look at the record numbers in NY State today, that's Omicron. Ditto Ireland

Given they are running testing at 16% of the UK level and of those tests sequencing 12% of the positive outcomes, how the fiddle do they think they have the remotest idea how much Omicron they already have?

They haven't. Closing the borders to us is simply a near-painless way of being seen to be doing something.

Indeed. France the same. It was a purely political gesture, against Brexit Britain. If it had been a genuinely medical issue, they would have quarantined Denmark, Norway and probably Holland and Belgium as well. They did not

By all accounts it was self harming. The huge French ski industry is majorly dependant on the British market in December and Jan. They have lost hundreds of millions, and the losses continue. To what end and for what purpose?

They can't close the borders to any of those nations' citizens unless they test positive for Covid as they are in the EU or EEA with free movement unlike the UK

I don’t think so. I believe they can close to Schengen citizens as an emergency measure. I recall in the first wave a lot countries did so with the European Commission reluctantly conceding they could, but complaining about how long they maintained the closures for.

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

Scott_xP said:

Plague Island...

BREAKING: Germany to class the UK as a virus variant area from Monday, restricting travel from the UK to Germany. It’s been announced tonight by the Robert Koch Institute. More details to come… https://twitter.com/spiegel_eil/status/1472321450111610885

It might make sense to restrict us now, as we did with southern Africa. Once omicron is in and has a bit of steam from doubling you might as well lift it though.
It'll be everywhere in short order, restrictions should lift in a week or two.

Denmark of course is already really bad, as is Holland. France its well seeded. Even if it isn't widespread in Germany, their neighbours have it already.

I can't see a way that it isn't all over Germany. Neighbouring countries, travel etc.

Kamski reckoned Germany was 2 weeks behind the UK, Omicron-wise, maybe less


I reckon "maybe less" is probably right. Everywhere in western Europe is maybe ten days behind the UK at best

It is far too infectious for it not to be lurking already in the data, ready to explode. Look at the record numbers in NY State today, that's Omicron. Ditto Ireland

Given they are running testing at 16% of the UK level and of those tests sequencing 12% of the positive outcomes, how the fiddle do they think they have the remotest idea how much Omicron they already have?

They haven't. Closing the borders to us is simply a near-painless way of being seen to be doing something.

Indeed. France the same. It was a purely political gesture, against Brexit Britain. If it had been a genuinely medical issue, they would have quarantined Denmark, Norway and probably Holland and Belgium as well. They did not

By all accounts it was self harming. The huge French ski industry is majorly dependant on the British market in December and Jan. They have lost hundreds of millions, and the losses continue. To what end and for what purpose?

They can't close the borders to any of those nations' citizens unless they test positive for Covid as they are in the EU or EEA with free movement unlike the UK. This is just am easy way for the EU to hit post Brexit UK even if the travellers have been vaccinated and given negative tests

Except that other EU nations ARE acting unilaterally and imposing their own rules on fellow EU nations. eg Italy

"Italy is tightening its restrictions for all travellers in response to the rising threat of the omicron variant.

"As of today, 16 December, arrivals from other European Union countries will have to take a COVID test before arriving into the country. Read on for the rules for travellers from non-EU countries.

"Previously, proof of vaccination, recent recovery or a negative test was sufficient for visitors from the Schengen zone. But now they must begin the testing process before embarking."

This is Italy deciding for itself. The EU was not consulted and is not happy

https://www.euronews.com/travel/2021/12/15/italy-travel-restrictions-what-are-the-new-testing-rules-for-eu-and-uk-passengers

Schengen is in a total mess

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

Not sure how long that will hold

Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails

The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....

Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

I will e very interested in whether the lib dems will also against this time

Ah yes, that old chestnut.

Where is the chestnut

It is a simple question

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

Not sure how long that will hold

Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails

The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....

Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time

How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Nadine can't even spell her last name lol

That's not how WhatsApp works.

It means the leaker can't spell Dorries.

Tory MPs care so little about Nadine that they can't even spell her name right

Nadine is the leaker, to show how she’s loyal and others aren’t, and changing the spelling is her cunning ruse by way of disguise.

Does Frosty get a ministerial resignation statement in the Lords in New Year?

Would it be worth ordering the popcorn in?

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

Scott_xP said:

Plague Island...

BREAKING: Germany to class the UK as a virus variant area from Monday, restricting travel from the UK to Germany. It’s been announced tonight by the Robert Koch Institute. More details to come… https://twitter.com/spiegel_eil/status/1472321450111610885

It might make sense to restrict us now, as we did with southern Africa. Once omicron is in and has a bit of steam from doubling you might as well lift it though.
It'll be everywhere in short order, restrictions should lift in a week or two.

Denmark of course is already really bad, as is Holland. France its well seeded. Even if it isn't widespread in Germany, their neighbours have it already.

I can't see a way that it isn't all over Germany. Neighbouring countries, travel etc.

Kamski reckoned Germany was 2 weeks behind the UK, Omicron-wise, maybe less


I reckon "maybe less" is probably right. Everywhere in western Europe is maybe ten days behind the UK at best

It is far too infectious for it not to be lurking already in the data, ready to explode. Look at the record numbers in NY State today, that's Omicron. Ditto Ireland

Given they are running testing at 16% of the UK level and of those tests sequencing 12% of the positive outcomes, how the fiddle do they think they have the remotest idea how much Omicron they already have?

They haven't. Closing the borders to us is simply a near-painless way of being seen to be doing something.

Indeed. France the same. It was a purely political gesture, against Brexit Britain. If it had been a genuinely medical issue, they would have quarantined Denmark, Norway and probably Holland and Belgium as well. They did not

By all accounts it was self harming. The huge French ski industry is majorly dependant on the British market in December and Jan. They have lost hundreds of millions, and the losses continue. To what end and for what purpose?

They can't close the borders to any of those nations' citizens unless they test positive for Covid as they are in the EU or EEA with free movement unlike the UK. This is just an easy way for the EU to hit post Brexit UK even if the travellers have been vaccinated and given negative tests

France is hitting itself economically with these measures

Macron will not be flavour of the month in the French ski resorts

When my son was a professional snowboarder he spent the winter in France and the summer in Canada

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldBasing said:

The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

With respect they are not imploding over Europe , they are imploding over covid restrictions, increased NI and green taxes

Frost himself has said in his resignation letter Brexit is secure

Green taxes? Don’t make me laugh. One of the most notable absences in the last budget was anything meaningful on net zero.

We’re not even 1% of the way towards rebalancing our tax system from income towards carbon-intensive consumption. Nor do we do anything material to incentivise clean growth. Not that anyone else in Europe is doing much better.

Watch this space early next year as we launch a big campaign to focus tax policy on incentives for green and public health investment. Of the sort that several small US states already outcompete us on. Oh and some semblance of strategy on taxation. It’s such a no-brainer that only someone as myopic and financially illiterate as Lord Frost could think the problem is green taxes.

EDIT: “We” being my firm, not the government.

Beibheirli_C said:

rpjs said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

pigeon said:

CarlottaVance said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

Scott_xP said:

Plague Island...

BREAKING: Germany to class the UK as a virus variant area from Monday, restricting travel from the UK to Germany. It’s been announced tonight by the Robert Koch Institute. More details to come… https://twitter.com/spiegel_eil/status/1472321450111610885

It might make sense to restrict us now, as we did with southern Africa. Once omicron is in and has a bit of steam from doubling you might as well lift it though.
It'll be everywhere in short order, restrictions should lift in a week or two.

Denmark of course is already really bad, as is Holland. France its well seeded. Even if it isn't widespread in Germany, their neighbours have it already.

I can't see a way that it isn't all over Germany. Neighbouring countries, travel etc.

Kamski reckoned Germany was 2 weeks behind the UK, Omicron-wise, maybe less


I reckon "maybe less" is probably right. Everywhere in western Europe is maybe ten days behind the UK at best

It is far too infectious for it not to be lurking already in the data, ready to explode. Look at the record numbers in NY State today, that's Omicron. Ditto Ireland

Given they are running testing at 16% of the UK level and of those tests sequencing 12% of the positive outcomes, how the fiddle do they think they have the remotest idea how much Omicron they already have?

They haven't. Closing the borders to us is simply a near-painless way of being seen to be doing something.

Indeed. France the same. It was a purely political gesture, against Brexit Britain. If it had been a genuinely medical issue, they would have quarantined Denmark, Norway and probably Holland and Belgium as well. They did not

By all accounts it was self harming. The huge French ski industry is majorly dependant on the British market in December and Jan. They have lost hundreds of millions, and the losses continue. To what end and for what purpose?

They can't close the borders to any of those nations' citizens unless they test positive for Covid as they are in the EU or EEA with free movement unlike the UK

I don’t think so. I believe they can close to Schengen citizens as an emergency measure. I recall in the first wave a lot countries did so with the European Commission reluctantly conceding they could, but complaining about how long they maintained the closures for.

It is almost like they have sovereignty.....

Surely not...

Philip?

Scott_xP said:

EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

Exchanges here: https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

For the first time in my life I feel sorry for Nadine Dorries. What utter shits these Tory MPs are.

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

Scott_xP said:

EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

Exchanges here: https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

"The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.

Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.

Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".

kamski said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

Not sure how long that will hold

Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails

The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....

Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

I will e very interested in whether the lib dems will also against this time

Ah yes, that old chestnut.

Where is the chestnut

It is a simple question

I can't work Christmas Day because I've been in contact with someone who has Covid. Soz.

Surely if you're a vaccinated contact person you keep working? What are the rules now?

It looks like they re-imposed the isolation requirement then scrapped it a few days later, for NHS staff

theProle said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

Not sure how long that will hold

Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails

The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....

Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time

The logical act is not to lockdown, but to abolish the self isolation rules. Get covid +ve staff to cover covid wards were possible.

^ Absolutely 100% this. ^

Then abolish self-isolation rules nationwide as the next step.

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldBasing said:

The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

With respect they are not imploding over Europe , they are imploding over covid restrictions, increased NI and green taxes

Frost himself has said in his resignation letter Brexit is secure

He was hardly going to say "Dear PM, Brexit is an unsolvable mess. Sorry it did not work" in a public letter.

Brexit is temporary. The only question is how long that temporary period lasts.

Brexit is here to stay though some improvements will not doubt be made, but rejoin certainly not in this decade if ever

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

Scott_xP said:

EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

Exchanges here: https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

"The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.

Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.

Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".

Any evidence that is owt to do with post-Brexit supply side reforms?

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

Scott_xP said:

EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

Exchanges here: https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

"The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.

Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.

Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".

and wages?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/placeofworkbyparliamentaryconstituencyashetable9

8.4% average annual wage growth in Leigh

theProle said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

Not sure how long that will hold

Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails

The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....

Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time

The logical act is not to lockdown, but to abolish the self isolation rules. Get covid +ve staff to cover covid wards were possible.

Staff hospitals with sick people? That sounds like a bad idea on multiple levels.

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldBasing said:

The Conservative Party imploding over Europe during a national public health crisis is the popcorn moment we've all be waiting for.

With respect they are not imploding over Europe , they are imploding over covid restrictions, increased NI and green taxes

Frost himself has said in his resignation letter Brexit is secure

He was hardly going to say "Dear PM, Brexit is an unsolvable mess. Sorry it did not work" in a public letter.

Brexit is temporary. The only question is how long that temporary period lasts.

He has however walked off with all the cards we were holding.

pigeon said:

rpjs said:

moonshine said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

Not sure how long that will hold

Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails

The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....

Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time

How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.

Leaving aside whether there is any merit to that idea at all, I really don’t think it’d be such a good idea when the people they’d be working with are going to be skewing way to the vulnerable to COVID end.

If Omicron takes off on as steep a trajectory as the boffins fear then Government may have no choice but to ditch self-isolation. One thing that would logically be worse than having all those extra Covid plague spreaders stalking the land, regardless of how desperate they are to suppress it, would be a descent into anarchy - because there are so many workers locked in their own homes that there aren't enough left to keep the lights, heating and water on, to stock the supermarket shelves, to police the streets and to treat the sick.

But isn’t that what might happen if Omicron’s just allowed to spread un-checked?

pigeon said:

rpjs said:

moonshine said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

Not sure how long that will hold

Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails

The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....

Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time

How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.

Leaving aside whether there is any merit to that idea at all, I really don’t think it’d be such a good idea when the people they’d be working with are going to be skewing way to the vulnerable to COVID end.

If Omicron takes off on as steep a trajectory as the boffins fear then Government may have no choice but to ditch self-isolation. One thing that would logically be worse than having all those extra Covid plague spreaders stalking the land, regardless of how desperate they are to suppress it, would be a descent into anarchy - because there are so many workers locked in their own homes that there aren't enough left to keep the lights, heating and water on, to stock the supermarket shelves, to police the streets and to treat the sick.

That was always the fear even in the original wave, so you'd hope that someone in Government would have an idea of what to do in that situation.

Leon said:

I know Allison Pearson is not everyone's cuppa tea, but she is absolutely right here

"My friend’s grandson started nursery last week.
Out of 13 in the class, five have serious speech delay.
Lockdown toddlers they didn’t see enough faces, they didn’t socialise enough.
Those tiny children are a silent rebuke to SAGE.
#nolockdown"

https://twitter.com/AllisonPearson/status/1472301352911093763?s=20

I've heard similar from multiple parents

This will only compound existing problems with poor parenting, especially in less affluent areas, that pre-date Covid. Some of these benighted reception class teachers are going to be so busy providing potty training, remedial speech therapy, trying to impart basic social skills and dealing with "challenging" behaviour that they'll have precious little time for anything else.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Leon said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rpjs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Oh @Leon, the only person you're fooling with this nonsense that this isn't your third iteration is yourself

Third? I count at least four including the original.

Bryonic, eadric, LadyG and now Leon. Have I missed any? 😉

The original SeanT - so that’s 5.

I am not any of these people, and yet, weirdly, I did once meet LadyG and Stuart Dickson, in a "dwarf and horse sauna" in Jakarta. Anyone who has been there will know what I mean

I was there to sell my flints, is my excuse

And there you go again, you must think we're all morons

I don't think he thinks *every* other poster is a moron.

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

Scott_xP said:

EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

Exchanges here: https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

"The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.

Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.

Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".

and wages?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/placeofworkbyparliamentaryconstituencyashetable9

8.4% average annual wage growth in Leigh

Not sure where you’re looking but I’m seeing 4.5% for Leigh which is of course below inflation, and therefore not wage growth?

ManchesterKurt said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

Scott_xP said:

EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

Exchanges here: https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

"The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.

Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.

Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".

and wages?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/placeofworkbyparliamentaryconstituencyashetable9

8.4% average annual wage growth in Leigh

5.2% on median actually based on that data you shared.

So about level with inflation and well below the richer local places like Sale and Altrincham at 7.4%.

Well below many other rich areas as well, in fact, zero correlation with Brexitty areas benefitting.

Its above inflation on both mean and median measures, and with full employment. So literally what I wrote 'full employment and rising wages' - don't you have the dignity and self-respect to acknowledge I was right?

solarflare said:

pigeon said:

rpjs said:

moonshine said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

Not sure how long that will hold

Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails

The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....

Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time

How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.

Leaving aside whether there is any merit to that idea at all, I really don’t think it’d be such a good idea when the people they’d be working with are going to be skewing way to the vulnerable to COVID end.

If Omicron takes off on as steep a trajectory as the boffins fear then Government may have no choice but to ditch self-isolation. One thing that would logically be worse than having all those extra Covid plague spreaders stalking the land, regardless of how desperate they are to suppress it, would be a descent into anarchy - because there are so many workers locked in their own homes that there aren't enough left to keep the lights, heating and water on, to stock the supermarket shelves, to police the streets and to treat the sick.

That was always the fear even in the original wave, so you'd hope that someone in Government would have an idea of what to do in that situation.

I doubt that there's any sort of plan at all. They'll let the pingdemic on steroids run its course and just keep their fingers crossed that enough people still turn up to work at any one time to avert collapse.

The alternative is to ditch key infection control measures and allow the disease to run completely out of control - and if the hospitals are really, really screaming then ministers won't want to be seen, effectively, to be throwing in the towel and letting them all catch fire unless they're completely out of options.

kyf_100 said:

solarflare said:

pigeon said:

rpjs said:

moonshine said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Leon said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Observer saying that conservative mps will not move against Boris due to the covid crisis and will wait for the May elections

Not sure how long that will hold

Not long, if Boris tries to bring in Lockdown 4


Then it won't be a question of Should he be PM, there will just be enormous resistance to the economic and social damage this entails

The pressure for him to do so is going to be enormous. Every rise in cases, hospitalisations and deaths will be followed by why aren't you following SAGE advice. Sky News report was already we are going to hell in a hand basket, something must be done....

Report tonight 50,000 doctors, nurses and staff are already unavailable for Christmas due to covid

If Boris does act, no matter the civil war in his party, he will be putting the country first

I will be very interested in whether the lib dems will also be against this time

How many of those staff are medically unfit for work and how many just have a positive test result? The solution to labour shortages is pretty clear now. Eliminate the self isolation rules for positive tests. Since everyone is going to catch it anyway.

Leaving aside whether there is any merit to that idea at all, I really don’t think it’d be such a good idea when the people they’d be working with are going to be skewing way to the vulnerable to COVID end.

If Omicron takes off on as steep a trajectory as the boffins fear then Government may have no choice but to ditch self-isolation. One thing that would logically be worse than having all those extra Covid plague spreaders stalking the land, regardless of how desperate they are to suppress it, would be a descent into anarchy - because there are so many workers locked in their own homes that there aren't enough left to keep the lights, heating and water on, to stock the supermarket shelves, to police the streets and to treat the sick.

That was always the fear even in the original wave, so you'd hope that someone in Government would have an idea of what to do in that situation.

We've already seen what happens in the petrol crisis the other month. After a week of dilly dallying they announce they will send in the army, by which time the crisis is almost over and supplies are back to normal.

But I would not expect the government to take swift action. Could be a couple of very interesting weeks ahead.

And without wanting to come over all doom and gloom, that's before the Chinese economy effectively shuts down over all this.

I strongly suspect the government will now act quickly. Surprisingly quickly

As has been pointed out multiple times, if you are going to lockdown, you do it sooner rather than later. Delaying prolongs the agony

Close hospitality this week? Then impose the social distancing rules after Xmas?

Seems logical. I hate it and I despise it, but that would be the logical move, if you believe in this voodoo shit

Northern_Al said:

Leon said:

I know Allison Pearson is not everyone's cuppa tea, but she is absolutely right here


"My friend’s grandson started nursery last week.
Out of 13 in the class, five have serious speech delay.
Lockdown toddlers they didn’t see enough faces, they didn’t socialise enough.
Those tiny children are a silent rebuke to SAGE.
#nolockdown"


https://twitter.com/AllisonPearson/status/1472301352911093763?s=20


I've heard similar from multiple parents

I suspect that's more to do with parents spending all their time gazing at their phones instead of talking to their toddlers. Maybe nothing to do with lockdown. Watch parents on any street, in any park: texting, surfing, posting on PB rather than interacting with their kids. A long-term trend, I fear, of delayed language acquisition.

I have personally seen what lockdown and the rest has done to my teenage kids. It is not good

I have little doubt it is similarly pernicious, if not worse, for infants and toddlers

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

Philip_Thompson said:

dixiedean said:

Scott_xP said:

EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

Exchanges here: https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

"The whole point of Brexit is a radical supply side reform."
They talk of little else in Leigh to be fair.

Full employment and growing wages in Leigh suggests it's working for them.

Do you have stats for Leigh to back up that claim?

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf

Leigh 4.9% unemployment rate.

5.0% is traditionally the threshold for "full employment".

and wages?

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/datasets/placeofworkbyparliamentaryconstituencyashetable9

8.4% average annual wage growth in Leigh

Not sure where you’re looking but I’m seeing 4.5% for Leigh which is of course below inflation, and therefore not wage growth?

8.4% mean average, 5.2% median average, both are above inflation - and full employment too.

Why are you looking at weekly pay? Annual pay seems to show only a 2% rise, well below inflation

Is this Lord Frost resignation the tipping point for bojo or tomorrows chip paper?

NickPalmer said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

EXC - big row in a Tory Whatsapp “Clean Global Brexit” group with over 100 MPs

It leads leads to removal of Nadine Dorries after she defending the PM … and then Steve Baker declaring “enough is enough”

Exchanges here: https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016/photo/1

Odd that after several critical posts, Dorries sticks up for the clown and that alone is sufficient for Baker to banish her.

I'm amazed how much time some Tory MPs have to argue on WhatsApp - there seem to be numerous different lists for different shades of opinion, all packed with people shouting at each other. When do they get any constituency correspondence done?

Don’t they have family members to deal with their correspondence? On expenses?

pigeon said:

Leon said:

I know Allison Pearson is not everyone's cuppa tea, but she is absolutely right here

"My friend’s grandson started nursery last week.
Out of 13 in the class, five have serious speech delay.
Lockdown toddlers they didn’t see enough faces, they didn’t socialise enough.
Those tiny children are a silent rebuke to SAGE.
#nolockdown"

https://twitter.com/AllisonPearson/status/1472301352911093763?s=20

I've heard similar from multiple parents

This will only compound existing problems with poor parenting, especially in less affluent areas, that pre-date Covid. Some of these benighted reception class teachers are going to be so busy providing potty training, remedial speech therapy, trying to impart basic social skills and dealing with "challenging" behaviour that they'll have precious little time for anything else.

Nonsense. Children haven't been separated from their parents. Nursery schools, and childminders, have been open virtually throughout. Yes, there's lots of very poor parenting; but that's nothing new, and the Telegraph (which has zero sympathy for the culturally and economically poor) is just trying to use this in its right-wing anti-NPI agenda.